Return to Transcripts main page

American Morning

Latest Developments in the Race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination

Aired January 22, 2004 - 07:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Back to politics now. There are five days left until the New Hampshire primary for the Democratic presidential nomination. For a little more about who's up, who's down, who's saying what about whom, let's bring in our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider.
He's in Manchester, New Hampshire this morning -- hey, Bill, good morning to you.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: All right, lots to get to this morning, including some poll numbers. The "Boston Herald" released a poll that shows John Kerry with a 10 point lead over Howard Dean. You also have another poll, that's that poll there, Kerry at 31 percent, Dean at 21 percent, Clark following with 16 percent, Edwards with 11 percent. Then you had a "Boston Globe" poll that shows very similar numbers. And then you've got this new poll coming from Reuters, MSNBC and Zogby, similar order, the numbers are slightly different, but essentially showing Kerry in the lead, Dean behind, after that we've got Clark, after that we've got Edwards.

First, give me a sense of how reliable the polls are at this point. I mean how much can we trust these numbers?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you don't trust any one poll, but when they all show the same thing, I think we can have confidence that they are, the consistency gives you reliability. Kerry on top, the new front runner. He's about the third front runner in the last couple of weeks. He's surpassed Dean. Kerry is surging. The basic lesson, what's going on here, Kerry up, Edwards up slightly, Dean way down and Clark is faltering a little bit, too.

So you've got two up and two down. Kerry seems to be gaining points at the expense of Dean, moved into the front runner position and they're all going to be gunning for Kerry in the debate tonight.

O'BRIEN: You think he's going to be the guy now with the bull's eye as Howard Dean used to say, the bull's eye painted on him?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, that's right. He said he used to talk about pulling gunshot out of his rear-end and now that's going to be John Kerry. But they've got to be careful, because they learned a lesson in Iowa. The lesson is the voters of Iowa, the Democrats there were looking for someone presidential, someone electable. And Howard Dean didn't exactly fill the bill. That's what they saw in John Kerry and also in John Edwards.

So everybody's going to be on the attack, but they're going to do it presidentially. They don't want to be too harsh, too vituperative, because believe me, Howard Dean is paying a price for that tirade after he lost the Iowa caucuses on Monday night. Very embarrassing, very damaging. Some people are saying that might have been, we don't know yet, that might have been his Edmund Muskie moment. You remember way back in 1972 when Edmund Muskie was accused of having cried publicly when he protested an article that was unflattering about his wife. And that seemed to just throw him out of the race. A lot of people are saying the same thing could happen to Howard Dean as a result of that tirade.

O'BRIEN: And, in fact, as a result of that tirade, we know now that the former New Hampshire Senator John Durkin, who had originally endorsed Dean, he's now saying wait a minute, he's now undecided.

First, how unusual is it to unendorse a candidate that you've endorsed?

SCHNEIDER: Very unusual and it shows that, you know, this race is going on very fast. People have endorsed, embraced Howard Dean, didn't know a great deal about him. And now suddenly they say wait a minute, wait a minute, is this the guy that I endorsed? Because this race is happening very, very fast.

O'BRIEN: He says he's going to wait and see. He's undecided now. That's the former senator.

Do you think Howard Dean can do something, do anything in the next five days, or what should he do in order to fix some of these fences that have been stomped on, essentially?

SCHNEIDER: I think he has to tone it down, which he is doing. He has to appear presidential, which he's trying to do. For one thing, he's keeping his coat on. He's not rolling up his sleeves and looking like a tough guy. He's trying to appear presidential.

Can he convince voters that he's the most electable? You know, it's very rare in any campaign, particularly a primary campaign, for voters to vote on electability. But that appears to be a major factor in this race. You hear it all the time, when I talk to voters here in New Hampshire and even in Iowa before, they're saying we're looking for someone who can beat George Bush. They thought it was Howard Dean. Now they have some doubts and that's why John Kerry is surging.

O'BRIEN: Clear, looking presidential is important. And it's interesting that this news about John Edwards' campaign, because to some degree, he got a lot of kudos for his behavior, above the fray. And now it turns out that some of his campaign workers were writing a memo, a very big memo on how to attack the competition.

Do you think this hurts him? He's apologized, but at the same time said I had nothing to do with it.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, I think people understand when campaign workers get out of hand. Edwards has been moving up slowly here in New Hampshire. Look, the basic rule is that John Kerry looks like the man with experience. Howard Dean doesn't have a lot of experience in national or international affairs. Howard Dean came across, particularly Monday night, as angry, so John Edwards is Mr. Optimistic, positive, happy. They're both really playing off of Dean's weaknesses and picking up some of those votes from the former front runner, Howard Dean.

O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider in Manchester, New Hampshire for us this morning.

Nice to see you, Bill.

Thanks a lot.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Presidential Nomination>


Aired January 22, 2004 - 07:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Back to politics now. There are five days left until the New Hampshire primary for the Democratic presidential nomination. For a little more about who's up, who's down, who's saying what about whom, let's bring in our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider.
He's in Manchester, New Hampshire this morning -- hey, Bill, good morning to you.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: All right, lots to get to this morning, including some poll numbers. The "Boston Herald" released a poll that shows John Kerry with a 10 point lead over Howard Dean. You also have another poll, that's that poll there, Kerry at 31 percent, Dean at 21 percent, Clark following with 16 percent, Edwards with 11 percent. Then you had a "Boston Globe" poll that shows very similar numbers. And then you've got this new poll coming from Reuters, MSNBC and Zogby, similar order, the numbers are slightly different, but essentially showing Kerry in the lead, Dean behind, after that we've got Clark, after that we've got Edwards.

First, give me a sense of how reliable the polls are at this point. I mean how much can we trust these numbers?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you don't trust any one poll, but when they all show the same thing, I think we can have confidence that they are, the consistency gives you reliability. Kerry on top, the new front runner. He's about the third front runner in the last couple of weeks. He's surpassed Dean. Kerry is surging. The basic lesson, what's going on here, Kerry up, Edwards up slightly, Dean way down and Clark is faltering a little bit, too.

So you've got two up and two down. Kerry seems to be gaining points at the expense of Dean, moved into the front runner position and they're all going to be gunning for Kerry in the debate tonight.

O'BRIEN: You think he's going to be the guy now with the bull's eye as Howard Dean used to say, the bull's eye painted on him?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, that's right. He said he used to talk about pulling gunshot out of his rear-end and now that's going to be John Kerry. But they've got to be careful, because they learned a lesson in Iowa. The lesson is the voters of Iowa, the Democrats there were looking for someone presidential, someone electable. And Howard Dean didn't exactly fill the bill. That's what they saw in John Kerry and also in John Edwards.

So everybody's going to be on the attack, but they're going to do it presidentially. They don't want to be too harsh, too vituperative, because believe me, Howard Dean is paying a price for that tirade after he lost the Iowa caucuses on Monday night. Very embarrassing, very damaging. Some people are saying that might have been, we don't know yet, that might have been his Edmund Muskie moment. You remember way back in 1972 when Edmund Muskie was accused of having cried publicly when he protested an article that was unflattering about his wife. And that seemed to just throw him out of the race. A lot of people are saying the same thing could happen to Howard Dean as a result of that tirade.

O'BRIEN: And, in fact, as a result of that tirade, we know now that the former New Hampshire Senator John Durkin, who had originally endorsed Dean, he's now saying wait a minute, he's now undecided.

First, how unusual is it to unendorse a candidate that you've endorsed?

SCHNEIDER: Very unusual and it shows that, you know, this race is going on very fast. People have endorsed, embraced Howard Dean, didn't know a great deal about him. And now suddenly they say wait a minute, wait a minute, is this the guy that I endorsed? Because this race is happening very, very fast.

O'BRIEN: He says he's going to wait and see. He's undecided now. That's the former senator.

Do you think Howard Dean can do something, do anything in the next five days, or what should he do in order to fix some of these fences that have been stomped on, essentially?

SCHNEIDER: I think he has to tone it down, which he is doing. He has to appear presidential, which he's trying to do. For one thing, he's keeping his coat on. He's not rolling up his sleeves and looking like a tough guy. He's trying to appear presidential.

Can he convince voters that he's the most electable? You know, it's very rare in any campaign, particularly a primary campaign, for voters to vote on electability. But that appears to be a major factor in this race. You hear it all the time, when I talk to voters here in New Hampshire and even in Iowa before, they're saying we're looking for someone who can beat George Bush. They thought it was Howard Dean. Now they have some doubts and that's why John Kerry is surging.

O'BRIEN: Clear, looking presidential is important. And it's interesting that this news about John Edwards' campaign, because to some degree, he got a lot of kudos for his behavior, above the fray. And now it turns out that some of his campaign workers were writing a memo, a very big memo on how to attack the competition.

Do you think this hurts him? He's apologized, but at the same time said I had nothing to do with it.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, I think people understand when campaign workers get out of hand. Edwards has been moving up slowly here in New Hampshire. Look, the basic rule is that John Kerry looks like the man with experience. Howard Dean doesn't have a lot of experience in national or international affairs. Howard Dean came across, particularly Monday night, as angry, so John Edwards is Mr. Optimistic, positive, happy. They're both really playing off of Dean's weaknesses and picking up some of those votes from the former front runner, Howard Dean.

O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider in Manchester, New Hampshire for us this morning.

Nice to see you, Bill.

Thanks a lot.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Presidential Nomination>