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CNN Live Sunday
John Kerry Frontrunner In New Hampshire, Others Continue Campaigning
Aired January 25, 2004 - 18:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: The latest "USA Today" gallop tracking polls show Senator John Kerry with a strong lead among Democratic presidential contenders in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.
His rising star and the sinking temperatures didn't stop the other candidates from hitting the campaign trail today. Here are CNN political analysts, Carlos Watson, and CNN's Robert Novak, to give both sides of the equation out there on the campaign trail. Good to see both of you.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you.
LIN: What do you think of the latest polling that has Kerry in first place, and then Dean in second, Lieberman picking up some ground, predicted to come in third. Do you think these numbers are going to hold Carlos?
WATSON: I think ultimately Kerry will hold, and it will end up with somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the vote. But one of the things that stands out, is that there's not a lot of passion Carol.
When you talk to people, they are certainly going with the Senator from next door, Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry. But you don't feel that deep passion. The other thing that stands out as you go through the numbers is that there are more undecided this year than there were four years ago at this time.
Four years ago, we saw about six percent of the Democratic primary voters who were undecided. Now it's almost two or three times that much. Maybe as much as 20 percent. And as a result of that as I'm sure Bob will tell you, you are seeing some movement in the second, third, and fourth place in the polls.
ROBERT NOVAK, CNN COHOST, CROSSFIRE: Senator Kerry has a big lead. He just came out of Iowa with a huge bump. You have to remember that two weeks ago, he wasn't just a next-door neighbor. Two weeks ago he was dying in the state. He was morbid (ph). They had buried him and had the funeral ceremonies already.
And Dean was 20 to 30 points ahead. You have to remember that Dean has had one of the most incredible falls in any state ever. New Hampshire was absolutely the best state in the union for Howard Dean. And I think that the free fall he was in, he lost about half of his strength Carol, is over.
Now the other three, I mean he stabilized, but the other three candidates, I don't think there's any Lieberman bump. I think that they are all about even. Statistically impossible to tell who's ahead. And the best candidate industry by far is Senator Edwards.
A lot of people here still think that Edwards is going to be third, and might even challenge Dean for second place, although it doesn't show it in the polls.
WATSON: Carol, if Kerry wins, the people to remember in this win are not only the Senator, but there are three women, and another senator who will deserve some credit. His campaign manger, Mary Beth Cahill, his State Director, the former New Hampshire Governor, Gene Shaheen, his wife Theresa Hines, who's been very helpful and valuable here.
And last but not least, we cannot underestimate the role that Ted Kennedy has played both in Iowa in helping him rally the troops, and here in next-door New Hampshire.
NOVAK: But there is one who has been even more valuable to him. It's a man, and his name is Howard Dean. Because his collapse and his incredible performance which was played over and over. I guess we finished playing it on CNN finally. But his collapse is what -- where are all these Kerry votes coming from? It's not complicated math. They're coming from Howard Dean.
WATSON: Now one thing that Bob will tell you, and I'll tell you too Carol, is that while Dean has tumbled greatly, if he finishes second here, and if he goes into these seven states with more money arguably with the other Democratic candidates, there are going to be seven contests on February 3rd. So you can't just do retail politic. And you have to advertise on the air.
You probably need a good two, three, or $4 million to really have an effective campaign across all seven of those states. Dean's one of the few guys Bob who has it.
NOVAK: I don't think he's got enough money for that Carlos. I really don't. I get information that they've taken ads off in those states already. He spent so much money into here. He doesn't have unlimited funds. He's got a lot of funds. And second place is a disaster.
One thing Carol I think you have to add that we haven't mentioned is that another free fall, even a worse fall than Governor Dean, is General Clark in this state. General Clark stayed here; he campaigned all over the state. He was a close second to Dean as Kerry was a poor third.
And he has really fallen. He has lost more than half his strength. He could finish fourth, conceivably could finish fifth. But the dogs have looked at that dog food, and they don't like the taste of it.
LIN: And to Wes Clark go on National television and actually say he does not expect to win New Hampshire. He is getting ready to move on. It was pretty interesting, and a rare sight.
Bob, is the White house worried about any of these candidates?
NOVAK: Yes they are. They are really worried about Kerry and Edwards. They've been praying and saying -- talking to their -- whoever they pray to at the White House, they have been praying for Howard Dean. They just thought they had died and gone to heaven when they thought the Democratic Party was going to nominate Howard Dean.
LIN: Yes, the Dean scream probably added to the party atmosphere too. Thank you very much. I'm sorry guys. We're out of time. We have so much news. But we're going to be talking to you again in the Prime Time show at 10:00 Eastern. So save that story. Thanks so much Carlos. See you then Bob.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Campaigning>
Aired January 25, 2004 - 18:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: The latest "USA Today" gallop tracking polls show Senator John Kerry with a strong lead among Democratic presidential contenders in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.
His rising star and the sinking temperatures didn't stop the other candidates from hitting the campaign trail today. Here are CNN political analysts, Carlos Watson, and CNN's Robert Novak, to give both sides of the equation out there on the campaign trail. Good to see both of you.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you.
LIN: What do you think of the latest polling that has Kerry in first place, and then Dean in second, Lieberman picking up some ground, predicted to come in third. Do you think these numbers are going to hold Carlos?
WATSON: I think ultimately Kerry will hold, and it will end up with somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the vote. But one of the things that stands out, is that there's not a lot of passion Carol.
When you talk to people, they are certainly going with the Senator from next door, Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry. But you don't feel that deep passion. The other thing that stands out as you go through the numbers is that there are more undecided this year than there were four years ago at this time.
Four years ago, we saw about six percent of the Democratic primary voters who were undecided. Now it's almost two or three times that much. Maybe as much as 20 percent. And as a result of that as I'm sure Bob will tell you, you are seeing some movement in the second, third, and fourth place in the polls.
ROBERT NOVAK, CNN COHOST, CROSSFIRE: Senator Kerry has a big lead. He just came out of Iowa with a huge bump. You have to remember that two weeks ago, he wasn't just a next-door neighbor. Two weeks ago he was dying in the state. He was morbid (ph). They had buried him and had the funeral ceremonies already.
And Dean was 20 to 30 points ahead. You have to remember that Dean has had one of the most incredible falls in any state ever. New Hampshire was absolutely the best state in the union for Howard Dean. And I think that the free fall he was in, he lost about half of his strength Carol, is over.
Now the other three, I mean he stabilized, but the other three candidates, I don't think there's any Lieberman bump. I think that they are all about even. Statistically impossible to tell who's ahead. And the best candidate industry by far is Senator Edwards.
A lot of people here still think that Edwards is going to be third, and might even challenge Dean for second place, although it doesn't show it in the polls.
WATSON: Carol, if Kerry wins, the people to remember in this win are not only the Senator, but there are three women, and another senator who will deserve some credit. His campaign manger, Mary Beth Cahill, his State Director, the former New Hampshire Governor, Gene Shaheen, his wife Theresa Hines, who's been very helpful and valuable here.
And last but not least, we cannot underestimate the role that Ted Kennedy has played both in Iowa in helping him rally the troops, and here in next-door New Hampshire.
NOVAK: But there is one who has been even more valuable to him. It's a man, and his name is Howard Dean. Because his collapse and his incredible performance which was played over and over. I guess we finished playing it on CNN finally. But his collapse is what -- where are all these Kerry votes coming from? It's not complicated math. They're coming from Howard Dean.
WATSON: Now one thing that Bob will tell you, and I'll tell you too Carol, is that while Dean has tumbled greatly, if he finishes second here, and if he goes into these seven states with more money arguably with the other Democratic candidates, there are going to be seven contests on February 3rd. So you can't just do retail politic. And you have to advertise on the air.
You probably need a good two, three, or $4 million to really have an effective campaign across all seven of those states. Dean's one of the few guys Bob who has it.
NOVAK: I don't think he's got enough money for that Carlos. I really don't. I get information that they've taken ads off in those states already. He spent so much money into here. He doesn't have unlimited funds. He's got a lot of funds. And second place is a disaster.
One thing Carol I think you have to add that we haven't mentioned is that another free fall, even a worse fall than Governor Dean, is General Clark in this state. General Clark stayed here; he campaigned all over the state. He was a close second to Dean as Kerry was a poor third.
And he has really fallen. He has lost more than half his strength. He could finish fourth, conceivably could finish fifth. But the dogs have looked at that dog food, and they don't like the taste of it.
LIN: And to Wes Clark go on National television and actually say he does not expect to win New Hampshire. He is getting ready to move on. It was pretty interesting, and a rare sight.
Bob, is the White house worried about any of these candidates?
NOVAK: Yes they are. They are really worried about Kerry and Edwards. They've been praying and saying -- talking to their -- whoever they pray to at the White House, they have been praying for Howard Dean. They just thought they had died and gone to heaven when they thought the Democratic Party was going to nominate Howard Dean.
LIN: Yes, the Dean scream probably added to the party atmosphere too. Thank you very much. I'm sorry guys. We're out of time. We have so much news. But we're going to be talking to you again in the Prime Time show at 10:00 Eastern. So save that story. Thanks so much Carlos. See you then Bob.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
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