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Lou Dobbs Tonight
John Kerry Leading in New Hampshire; Iraqi WMD Debate Rages on
Aired January 26, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, January 26. Here now, Lou Dobbs.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening.
Howard Dean today stepped up his attacks against John Kerry in the final hours of the New Hampshire campaign. Dean questioned Kerry's judgment about foreign policy. Kerry called Dean's comments negative campaigning. Most of pools now say Kerry has a clear lead over Dean.
Kelly Wallace reports on the Kerry campaign from Keene, New Hampshire.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KELLY WALLACE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: With Senator John Kerry leading in the polls, he and his aides face not only the challenge of winning here, but also of meeting expectations.
And that's part of the reason why Kerry's aides are stressing today that they believe this race is going to be very tight and that they are not taking anything for granted.
The senator, for his part, is in the midst of a 16-hour, seven- stop day, traveling by bus and helicopter to get out the vote. Earlier, he was greeting voters in Rochester. Then, he flew by helicopter here to the campus of Keene State College to talk to undecided voters. One of the toughest questions he got today from a man who asked how Kerry, as a Vietnam veteran who protested that war, could go ahead and give President Bush the authority to go to war with Iraq.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you think I would have gone to war the way George Bush did, don't vote for me.
WALLACE: And some volunteers for Howard Dean on this campus as well trying to hand out videotapes of Dean's appearance with his wife, Judy, on ABC to any undecided voters.
Now, while Kerry's advisers try to focus on victory here tomorrow, they're also looking ahead to the next round of primaries. The senator will be traveling first to Missouri, the biggest delegate prize on February 3, before heading to South Carolina, which holds the first primary in the South.
Kelly Wallace, CNN, reporting from Keene, New Hampshire. (END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Howard Dean today said he's closing the gap with John Kerry very fast, as he put it.
Candy Crowley is following the Dean campaign and reports from Manchester, New Hampshire.
Candy, just how is Dean catching up with Kerry?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, he seems to, at least, have put that overheated concession speech in Iowa behind him.
They do believe that they're moving up in the polls. In fact, all the polls show that there is upward movement. The question is, is he doing it fast enough to catch up with John Kerry by tomorrow night? The fact of the matter is that another loss here is going to be very hard on the campaign coffers for Howard Dean. So, a win here would really help.
I have to tell you, Lou, that, yesterday, Howard Dean was talking in terms of the possibility of winning. Today, he is voicing much more confidence, saying, we're going to win Iowa -- I'm sorry -- going to win New Hampshire. So, there is definitely a much more upbeat feeling to the Dean campaign. Whether that's going to materialize at the voting polls tomorrow is open to question, because they felt very, very good right before the Iowa vote as well -- Lou.
DOBBS: Candy, just how important is a win in New Hampshire tomorrow?
CROWLEY: It's pretty important.
Look, the Dean people say, they have got money enough to go on until March. But the fact of the matter is that they have spent, in the past week at least $1.1 million in advertising here in New Hampshire. You add that to the fact that they spent a lot more money in Iowa than they wanted to, and what you have is campaign that thought it was going to clear the decks early on and have a lot of money in these upcoming states looking at a seven-state primary day in a week.
And it's going to have to start making some strategic decisions if, in fact, he doesn't pull out a win here tomorrow. A strong second might even help, but a win would be better even because, as you know, Lou, your success in the polls is directly tied to your success at bringing in contributors -- Lou.
DOBBS: Absolutely. Candy, thank you very much.
Well, while Dean and Kerry are apparently fighting for first place in New Hampshire, three other candidates are in a close contest for third. The latest polls show John Edwards, Wes Clark and Joe Lieberman in a virtual dead heat.
Bob Franken reports from Manchester, New Hampshire -- Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the winner of that one could probably do a great degree to help his campaign.
The ones who don't do well are going to have a lot of explaining to do. Wesley Clark has spent a lot of the time explaining himself. This is a man who is running for the first time here in New Hampshire. And he keeps hoping that the trend upward in the polls is going to go on. But keeps on tripping over his own words. Witness what happened today, when he tried to contrast himself as the common man, contrasting himself with the silver spoons that he said were his opponents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I didn't go to Yale. My parents couldn't have afforded to send me there. I went to West Point. I paid my own way through college.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FRANKEN: One teensy-weensy problem. The people who go to West Point, the cadets there, have their tuition fully paid, in addition to which, John Edwards is the man who likes to paint himself as the one who came from humble beginnings.
Later, Wes Clark said he didn't really mean John Edwards. And then there's Joe Lieberman. He needs to have a victory here, the victory being a good showing, something better than the fifth-place showing that he's really having in the polls right now. Lou, he says he is going to rely on the independent voters. That's no small deal. There's a huge chunk of independent voters in New Hampshire. It's one of the explanations for why this state frequently defies expectations -- Wolf -- excuse me -- Lou.
(LAUGHTER)
DOBBS: Bob, that's fine. Thank you very much, Bob Franken from Manchester. Wolf is tomorrow.
The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll in New Hampshire shows Senator John Kerry holding a comfortable lead. However, the reason many New Hampshire Democrats plan to vote for him is not only because of his ideas or his values, but because of something else altogether.
Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, joins us now from Manchester -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Lou.
Well, let's take a look at that latest horse race figure for where the race stands as of last night. Kerry is in the lead, 36 to 25. That's an 11-point lead, with a very tight race, as you indicated, between Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. Now, I should point out that there are about five or six tracking polls bouncing around New Hampshire. They all show Kerry ahead. But the margins vary from three points in one poll, 11, as you see here with our poll. Some of them are as high as 18 and 20 points. So there's a huge variation, all of them Kerry in the lead. And that makes a difference, because, if Kerry wins narrowly, he won't get much bounce. He's expected to win. He's from next door.
But if he wins a big victory here, then he will look like a certifiable front-runner, having won back-to-back victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
DOBBS: Bill? Bill, can you hear me?
SCHNEIDER: Well, yes, I do.
DOBBS: Good.
There is at least one poll that shows about a three-point difference between Kerry and Dean. What do you make of that?
SCHNEIDER: Well, there are always outliers. Look, it could be true.
New Hampshire polls have a terrible record of predicting. These days, voters make up their minds on their own time. So I'm saying is, you don't believe any one poll. That one has three points. Ours had 11. You look at all of them. And when you look at all of them, you say, well, it looks like Kerry is ahead, but we don't know by how much. And by how much is critical in this race.
Why is Kerry leading? That's an interesting question. And we asked people, who do you think will be best to beat George Bush? And that is where Kerry has built up his lead. Take a look at this; 56 percent say John Kerry has the best chance of beating Bush. Dean is way behind at 16, everybody else in single digits.
It's a really interesting phenomena that John Kerry is well-known here in New Hampshire. He was the front-runner at first. Then he started dropping. And he had to go all the way to Iowa, start his campaign all over again, to reintroduce himself here to the voters in New Hampshire to convince them, hey, maybe this guy isn't just a neighbor. Maybe he's serious candidate. And now they're flocking to him as the most electable.
DOBBS: Well, it appears they're flocking to him, to usher in words of caution, again, the volatility, the uncertainty of it all, the polling that we pay so much attention to, as you suggest, not entirely reliable.
Bill, just what exactly, though, does that polling that we might as well ignore, apparently, based on the results, suggest is the most important issue for voters tomorrow?
SCHNEIDER: Well, they say the economy. And there's an irony there, because, today, the stock market hit a 31-month high. So if the economy is the issue Democrats are voting on, that might not be such a terrific issue, Lou. The truth of the matter is, this is not a race driven by the issues. Sorry, folks. It just isn't, because there isn't much difference between these candidates on the issues. They all basically agree they want to repeal the tax cuts, or at least part of them or all of them. There are just nuances of difference.
They're all against what we're doing in Iraq, but there are just little nuances of difference. They're all for abortion rights. I mean, basically, they all agree on most important issues.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Well, they're all Democrats, right, Bill?
SCHNEIDER: They're all Democrats.
(LAUGHTER)
SCHNEIDER: They're supposed to agree.
So, if you're supposed to pick on this long list of Democrats, which one do you want? A lot of these voters say, we want to pick the one that's going to beat George Bush. That's John Kerry right now. That's why he's attracting all that support. You know what? If Wesley Clark had won in Iowa, I have a feeling, he might have been John Kerry. But he didn't run in Iowa, so he's not.
DOBBS: What if Howard Dean would had won? Would he be John Kerry?
(LAUGHTER)
SCHNEIDER: That might be a problem, because a lot of voters look at Howard Dean and they say, can he beat George Bush? That's the problem with Howard Dean. He has problems of lack of experience, not the right temperament. That's why these voters, who once favored Howard Dean by a 25-point margin, seem to have abandoned him in large numbers.
DOBBS: All right. You're not suggesting that that 56 percent response to who can beat George Bush is based entirely on Iowa, are you?
SCHNEIDER: It's based a lot on Iowa, but it's also based on Howard Dean.
That 56 percent who say that they think he can beat George Bush, they don't see anybody else.
I'll tell you why they think that, because I've talked to a lot of voters here. They see him as someone with military experience, someone with a lot of international expertise.
DOBBS: Are you back on Clark again? (CROSSTALK)
SCHNEIDER: No, no, Kerry.
DOBBS: Oh, Kerry.
SCHNEIDER: No, Kerry. Kerry and Clark have exactly the same appeal.
DOBBS: I am just trying to get this sorted out. You had Clark as Kerry and Kerry as Clark. I was getting confused.
SCHNEIDER: And there's a reason for that, because they have exactly the same appeal, electability.
That's why I said, if Clark had run in Iowa, he might have been Kerry. He might have been the winner, because they're both electable, but Kerry got there first. They both promise to keep you safe. They have military experience. They have foreign policy experience. They look like people who can stand next to Bush and talk credibly about national security. And you know what? The other Democrats can't.
DOBBS: At least according to the polls that we're not entirely sure we entirely trust. Is that right, Bill?
SCHNEIDER: That's exactly right.
DOBBS: Bill Schneider, thank you, as always. Look forward to your analysis and reporting tomorrow.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
DOBBS: Still ahead here, we'll be talking with the head Democrat, Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe. We'll be talking about the race for his party's nomination and what they plan to do to take on President Bush. He joins me to give us his assessment of the presidential campaign so far, the challenge of competing against President Bush, the challenge of all those challengers.
And the White House, well, the White House says the war against Saddam Hussein was justified, after former weapons inspector David Kay says, Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction.
And in "Exporting America" tonight, overseas competition destroying an entire American industry and the jobs of thousands.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: American troops in Iraq today searched the Tigris River, looking for three missing American soldiers, two of the soldiers pilots on a Kiowa helicopter. The other soldier was on a river patrol boat that capsized. The helicopter crashed while it searched for survivors from the patrol boat. Army officials say the helicopter problem hit a power line. Six other soldiers were killed in bomb attacks over the weekend.
New controversy about whether or not Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq. U.S. officials today repeated their view that it is far too early to say definitively that Iraq did or did not have such weapons. But the former head of the weapons hunt, David Kay, says it is unlikely Iraq had any stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction.
National security correspondent David Ensor has the report for us -- David.
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Lou, since being replaced Friday, former weapons inspector David Kay has been talking plenty. He's blaming the CIA, his employers until Friday, not the White House, for apparently getting it wrong on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
DAVID KAY, FORMER CHIEF U.S. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I actually think the intelligence community owes the president, rather than the president owing the American people.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
ENSOR: Administration officials liked that last comment. And they liked Kay's statement that Baghdad was actively working to produce a biological weapon using the poison ricin until the American invasion last month.
But his comment that he expects no weapons to be found has put the administration on the defensive. On Capitol Hill, Democrats saw Kay's statements as another reason that Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts should look into what went wrong at the CIA and at the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D-SD), MINORITY LEADER: If he fails to do so, we will again bring legislation to the Senate floor to establish a nonpartisan, independent commission to look at how intelligence was used by the intelligence community and this administration.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ENSOR: U.S. intelligence officials insist it's still premature to say, as Kay has, that no weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq.
They note that Kay says he quit because he didn't have enough people and yet now he says there's no point in looking because there's nothing to find. As one official put it, you can't have it both ways -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, perhaps he can, because he is. David, the fact is that the chief weapons inspector in this search for weapons of mass destruction says, in his judgment, they're not there. There have been reports, alternatively, that Iraq is a huge area to search, that it's all but impossible, reports that weapons were transferred to Syria and other places. What are we to make of those scenarios now?
ENSOR: Well, Kay, over the weekend, did say that it was possible that there was overhead photography showing a lot of trucks moving into Syria just before the war started. He subsequently said, however that there was no intelligence suggesting any nonconventional weapons or weapons parts had moved over that border.
It really just is very difficult to tell whether there are still weapons there. Obviously, the conventional wisdom now is that there are not. And yet, I still talk to some weapons inspectors who believe they may find some chemical weapons, a few, at least, buried in the sands in Iraq. So, the CIA is saying, the job isn't finished yet -- Lou.
DOBBS: David, thank you -- David Ensor, our national security correspondent, reporting from Washington.
The White House, for its part, stands by its decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime. But White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration will eventually review prewar intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
Kathleen Koch reports from the White House -- Kathleen.
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the administration is obviously stinging from these statements by former inspector David Kay and is beginning to adjust its carefully chosen language on Iraq and weapons of mass destruction.
Traveling with President Bush in Little Rock, Arkansas, today, his spokesman, Scott McClellan, said that the CIA is already doing some work on this, that is, the quality of the intelligence that the president was given. McClellan said the administration needs to compare the intelligence before the war with what weapons inspectors are learning now on the ground.
McClellan insists that Mr. Bush does still have confidence in CIA Director George Tenet. But neither the president, McClellan, nor Vice President Dick Cheney, traveling in Italy today, would repeat past statements that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons ready to deploy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today, the former dictator sits in captivity. He can no longer harbor or support terrorists. And his long efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction are at an end.
(END VIDEO CLIP) KOCH: And President Bush, in his speech today, did not mention Saddam Hussein once, did not mention once the danger that Saddam Hussein once posed in Iraq and to the world at large. These are subjects the president does generally include in his speeches. The president only more obliquely referred to the war on terror and praised intelligence officers for helping capture an al Qaeda operative in Iraq last week -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kathleen, is there any concern that the president simply take responsibility, that the agencies that David Kay is criticizing might feel that they're in need of a president stepping up and taking responsibility for the decision, if not the intelligence?
KOCH: Lou, the administration is not ready to go there at this point yet, Lou. They're simply maintaining that the inspectors have got to finish their work and that no decision, that no final deduction on weapons of mass destruction can be made until that work is done.
DOBBS: Kathleen, thank you very much -- Kathleen Koch reporting from the White House on this chilly evening.
Coming up next, Democratic showdown. We'll be talking with the national committee chairman, Terry McAuliffe and we'll talk about the race for his party's nomination and what they plan to do to take on President Bush.
And Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he's not worried about the millions of American jobs lost to cheap labor markets overseas. It's all about economics.
We'll have that story and a great deal more still ahead, coming right up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: My guest tonight says the seven Democratic presidential candidates have invigorated voters and will draw record numbers of them in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. Who else could be saying such a thing but Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, joining us tonight from Washington, D.C.
Terry, good to have you here.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, DNC CHAIRMAN: Lou, great to be back with you.
DOBBS: This process has been difficult for you, I know, with originally nine candidates. And you're winnowing it down quickly. What do you expect to be the dominant issue in determining the outcome of tomorrow's election?
MCAULIFFE: Well, we actually started with 10. We've gone through -- Senator Graham went out early.
But I think, after tomorrow, you'll see the process. People have got to assess their candidacy. But I think the beginning of the winnowing process will start after February 3, when we have seven states all over the country. But it's not up to me. It's going to be up to the voters to make that decision and for the candidates.
We are about beating George Bush. That's what this race is all about. But I remind you, Lou, we had a record turnout in Iowa, the biggest in the history of the state; 55 percent were new voters. I spoke to the state chair in New Hampshire this morning. She predicts 165,000 to 175,000 people going to the polls tomorrow.
That's exciting. Our message is working. And they know we can beat George Bush. And they don't like what he's doing as president.
DOBBS: They don't like what he's doing. Let's -- the fact of the matter is that, in New Hampshire, you had job losses. You've had a lot of difficulty. You're trying, obviously to energize the base. With this many candidates, you ought to be able to do that.
Also a forecast of, well, bad weather, if not a blizzard, do you think that that -- does that turnout really matter or is it just simply getting the next step forward in the primary process?
MCAULIFFE: Well, sure it matters.
It shows the enthusiasm in New Hampshire. This is a state that we need to win this November 2. It is a target state for us, just as Iowa was a target state. But the issues of job creation, health care, education -- as you know, yesterday, you saw the "Newsweek" poll; 44 percent of Americans think that George Bush deserves reelection; 52 think he does not deserve reelection. The Zogby poll had him at 41 percent.
Lou, that is astounding. This is a wartime president and his reelection is in the low 40s. I remind you, on this very week in 1992, President Clinton was 17 points down to former President Bush. I've got candidates today -- I've got one candidate beating the president outright, three more within the margin of error. His State of the Union was a bomb. He dropped four points in the State of the Union.
Nothing against his laudable goals of abstinence in high school and training prisoners and steroids for athletes, but you know what? Americans want to know, where are their jobs? Where are their health care benefits? Forty-three and half million Americans with no health insurance at all. Education. Right here in Virginia, you just saw that the state legislature, very conservative, just pulled out of the Leave No Child Behind, because they say it's unfunded mandates.
DOBBS: Terry...
MCAULIFFE: Those are the issues, Lou.
DOBBS: Those are certainly some of them, Terry.
MCAULIFFE: Yes.
DOBBS: But the fact is, you've got candidates that are just beating the dickens out of each other daily and nightly. You've got Kerry and Dean locked up, slugging it out. What's the price there? Are you trying to caution them a bit and try to remind them who they're trying to ultimately whip or just, is this part of the process?
MCAULIFFE: Well, I think we'll have a nominee by March 10. And we're all going to come together. I you've announced our major unity event here in Washington, D.C.
But you know what? This is no different, Lou, than any other primary we have had. I remind you, four years ago, George Bush's allies attacked John McCain's mental sanity. They attacked his patriotism. They attacked his wife and his children. And I remind you, in 1992, President Clinton went through a vicious primary all the way through May of 1992. This is no different.
They are running. This is the Democratic Party. We're a big, broad, diverse party, talking about a lot of different issues. The goal is to come together. And March 10, we'll come together unified as one party, putting our operations together. And then it will give us six months to go one on one against George Bush, a president right now in the low 40s on reelect who has neglected America. He has run up huge budget deficits.
DOBBS: A -- $477 billion the latest forecast from the CBO.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Terry McAuliffe, it sounds like you can't get this nominee in place, so you can take on the incumbent president. I would never have suspected that of you until just now, talking with you, of course.
Terry, thank you very much.
MCAULIFFE: Lou, great to be with you.
DOBBS: Before you leave tonight, would you like to forecast the outcome of the New Hampshire primary tomorrow?
MCAULIFFE: We're going to have seven Democratic winners tomorrow. George Bush is going to be the loser tomorrow in New Hampshire.
DOBBS: Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic Committee, thanks.
MCAULIFFE: Thanks, Lou.
Coming up next, we'll have more on the fight for the Democratic nomination. Our political panel joins us, Karen Tumulty of "TIME" magazine, Roger Simon of "U.S. News & World Report," and Ron Brownstein of "The L.A. Times." They join us.
And tonight, our special report, "Exporting America." A massive spending bill to be signed by President Bush could help keep some jobs in this country, believe it or not. And, from 36 million miles away, we'll have an extraordinary new look at the surface of the planet Mars -- all of that, a great deal more, still ahead.
Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The race for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire is extremely close. As we've reported, the results could shrink the current field of seven candidates.
Joining me now, our panel of top political journalists covering this primary, Ron Brownstein, the national political correspondent for "The Los Angeles Times," Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent for "TIME" magazine, both, as you see, in Manchester, New Hampshire, in familiar settings. And Roger Simon, political editor, "U.S. News & World Report," joining us from Washington, D.C.
Good to have you all here.
You just heard -- I hope you heard Terry McAuliffe say, we're going to see seven winners tomorrow. This is still a slug fest between Dean and Kerry.
Karen, what is your -- is there going to be any fallout, as we are led to believe there was in Iowa, as a result of negative campaigning?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME": Well, a lot of this stuff happens at the very end. And you don't find out about it, in fact, until after the fact.
But at this point, it's actually been a fairly low-key and, you know, softball race, compared to what we saw in Iowa. I think the lesson of John Edwards' surprising surge was that people have sort of a limited appetite for all this, these attacks on each other.
DOBBS: Ron, Bill Schneider, our political analyst at CNN, is basically saying the Democrats are really separated by nuance and subtlety, although sometimes that subtlety escapes me. Do you agree with that view or is there real, substantive difference that separates these seven candidates?
RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, I think there are differences, obviously, on issues, but they've chosen not to stress them here. Karen's this has been the decaf version of the New Hampshire primary, the ones that I have seen.
The lesson they took out of Iowa is they can't go after each other on issues that are seen as negative. They're focusing on personal characteristics. Different kinds of experience. Wesley Clark talked about executive experience. John Edwards talked about experience outside of Washington. Howard Dean talks about his experience as a governor. There are issue differences, and obviously not as big as they are in a general election, but every primary, whether it's Bill Bradley and Al Gore, or Gary Hart and Walter Mondale, they have to make big distinctions out of small differences. I think that will return after New Hampshire but it's not here right now.
DOBBS: Let me show you somebody that it looked to me as though he were trying to energize the base in New Hampshire. If we could please show the comments of Senator Kennedy on the floor of the U.S. Senate today, if we have that, could you please run that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: 40 percent of the New Hampshire taxpayers will receive less than $100 from the Bush tax plan in 2004. The top 1 percent of New Hampshire taxpayers receive 28 percent of the benefits in 2004 and get an average tax cut of over 67,000.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Roger, that sounds like class warfare, it sounds like a Democratic senator trying to excite the base in New Hampshire. As a matter of fact, he sounded more like a candidate than some of the candidates, what's going on?
ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": He wishes he were still a candidate. It shows you, actually, what Ron and Karen were saying, that the candidates are afraid to attack each other, so they have to use surrogates, Ted Kennedy as a surrogate for John Kerry. He's endorsed him as campaigning for him and rather than John Kerry going out and being too heated, they're going to use Ted Kennedy to do the hot button stuff. Kerry now is making himself more likable. It worked in Iowa, working so far in New Hampshire and Howard Dean never thought likability would have to be his strong suit, but even he is talking about it now.
DOBBS: Howard Dean, Karen, everyone keeps focusing on the so- called "I have a scream" speech, but the fact is Howard Dean finished third in Iowa before he ever delivered that speech. Are those problems that led to him being third in Iowa now, have they been handled? Is he more attractive in New Hampshire? Will he do considerably better than third?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, he's certainly more subdued. The Howard Dean that I saw today looked like the Howard Dean of last week on Valium. He's also talking a lot more about himself as a person, his wife Judy Dean is campaigning with him and, in fact, to humanize Howard Dean, the campaign has bought something like 100,000 copies of Howard and Judy Dean's interview with Diane Sawyer and they're going around the state and distributing them door to door to every undecided voter they could find. So clearly, the calculation here is that people need to see Howard Dean as a human being and not an attack dog.
BROWNSTEIN: Can I add something there, Lou?
DOBBS: Please. BROWNSTEIN: While Howard Dean is doing that this week, I think they're also laying the predicate for the argument they want to have with John Kerry, if they come out with enough strength to really do so and I think they probably fought more than the other campaigns about how they might run against Kerry and what Dean is doing this week is putting up advertising and trying to present himself as a politician of conviction who takes tough stands when they're unpopular whether it's signing the civil unions bill in Vermont or opposing the war in the fall of 2002 when most Americans supported it.
And I think what they've begun to do and will do, I think, with more volume and velocity after New Hampshire is argue that Kerry is the opposite. He's a trimmer, a politician of convenience who moves his positions around, depending on which way the wind is blowing. They're trying to ready the ground for that argument but feel they can't launch it here in New Hampshire because he was so damaged in Iowa and has to rehabilitate his own image first.
DOBBS: Roger, your best assessment as to who we realize Kerry is leading in all the polls, in most by a good margin. Who do you think will win and who will be second and third?
SIMON: I get the easy question.
DOBBS: You're the political editor of "U.S. News and World Report." You have the standing for this.
SIMON: I think there are two tickets out of New Hampshire, plus John Edwards. I'll give you the reverse, I think Lieberman drops out on Wednesday or at least, he should drop out on Wednesday if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire. He finishes in single digits or very low double digits. I don't know more than anyone else who's watching these polls. Looks like Kerry is ahead and Dean in second, it looks like people are bunched up for third. If Clark does not do reasonable well in New Hampshire, I think his campaign will be in big trouble as he heads to the seven states of February 3. He has to give people some reason for his candidacy and some reason he's in this race.
DOBBS: Karen, you get the...
TUMULTY: Yes, I agree with every single one of the things that Roger said. It's so difficult. Four years ago the polls that were taken on this day, the polls were 20 points off. They were predicting a narrow victory for George Bush and we saw John McCain simply swamped, swamping George Bush. So the polls here are just absolutely notoriously unreliable.
DOBBS: Unreliable or the people of New Hampshire have a great sense of humor. Ron, you get the concluding thought.
BROWNSTEIN: I broadly agree but I do think that here down the stretch John Kerry has not been quite aggressive enough in trying to close this. He's been behaving, I think, a little bit too much like a front-runner. I saw more energy at a Howard Dean event than at a John Kerry event. Dean did himself a lot of damage, but Lou, he also has a lot of real support up here and my guess is he comes out of this with a strong enough second place that he's still able to sustain himself and I agree, John Edwards will go on to South Carolina and probably do very well there.
DOBBS: OK. Roger, Ron, Karen. Thank you, we look forward to seeing you tomorrow as decision day approaches. Thanks.
Tonight's thought is on politics. Heavy turnout is forecast for New Hampshire tomorrow. Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. Those are the words of Plato.
Coming up next. Exporting America. Factories are closing, Americans are still losing their jobs as more manufacturing leaves this country in pursuit of cheaper labor overseas. We'll have that for you.
Shocking gaps revealed in our border security before the September 11 attacks. That report for you from Washington. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: An entire industry is now in critical condition in this country because it's being exported overseas. Embroidery, a craft, an industry, one of the mainstays of the New Jersey economy for more than a century. But apparel manufacturers have been taking advantage of cheap overseas labor and the embroidery industry has changed forever. Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Mitchell Pfeiffer has worked in the New Jersey embroidery industry for 30 years, but now he's watching that business slip through his fingers.
MITCHELL PFEIFFER, L&L CORP.: Mostly China, some Sri Lanka, India, Mexico, everywhere but here.
VILES: The embroidery industry isn't going anywhere, but its customers are. American clothing manufacturers going overseas for cheaper labor.
ED PARSEGHIAN, DEERROCK FABRICS: The manufacturers are competing with other manufacturers. So if one goes to China, the other one will go to China, right? So, eventually they all have to go overseas otherwise they can't compete.
VILES: Left behind, hundreds of small New Jersey factors that once made 90 percent of the embroidery in American lingerie, clothing, bedding and even flags. Many of those factories now vacant.
PFEIFFER: It's disaster, absolute disaster.
VILES: This was once a half a billion a year industry with up to 7,000 jobs, fewer than 1,000 of those jobs are now left. PROF. SILVIO LACCETTI, STEVENE INST. OF TECHNOLOGY: If you replicate this everywhere there are kinds of industries like this, then you begin to see it on a national level. It's not just one industry. If it was only one industry, I guess we would lose it.
But so many industries like it, we have to answer the question, do we want to lose them all?
VILES: The industry looked for help in Washington, but did not find it.
PFEIFFER: We sent people down to Congress and they gave us an answer like you can bring us 100,000 signatures and $1 million and we can't do anything for you people. You are a sacrificial lamb.
VILES: Mitch Pfeiffer once ran a family business with 20 employees and now all those jobs are gone and he works for himself in a business that is wasting away.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: Now it's hard to argue that embroidery itself is some out vital to our national economy. But it is part of our culture, it is a craft that provides descent incomes, up to $30,000 for these workers and it's not dyeing, it's just leaving America. We'll still have embroidery in clothing, just won't do it here.
DOBBS: As is the case in so many industries, including high- value tech jobs that are also being exported. One of the most chilling comments to me came from Alan Greenspan today speaking in London suggesting this is just a painful process, but, nonetheless, a historical imparity. I mean, that's ridiculous.
VILES: And not particularly painful for the bankers at the Federal Reserve, they're not experiencing it. We don't know if that's the case. Many economists believe there will be new jobs, but we don't believe the pain is for some higher economic goal at this point.
DOBBS: You talked about -- it's hardly high science to suggest that you have faith that these jobs have been created, particularly since the high value jobs and technology that was the offset to those low-value jobs in manufacturing. You know, one of the interesting things here that we should share with the audience here tonight, our viewers at home, you mentioned embroidery and focused on it there. But the fact is in this country that 96 percent of all apparel is manufactured outside these borders.
VILES: Yes, the customer base has just gone. When some customer base was here they did embroidery here. They have gone overseas and do embroidery overseas. The factories are still here, the work is gone.
DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) the best and biggest consumer market in the world.
VILES: Sure, and still consuming embroidery. DOBBS: Pete, thanks. Peter Viles.
Exporting American jobs also a topic in the spending bill the Congress passed just last week. The law now awaiting the signature of President Bush places severe restrictions on government work that can be exported overseas.
Louise Schiavone has the story from Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOUISE SCHIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As the government moves certain public sector jobs to private contractors, Congress says those jobs may not move overseas.
JOHN THRELKELD, AMER. FEDERATION OF GOVT. EMPLOYEES: It shows bipartisan concern about the Bush administration's privatization agenda and an attempt to put some sort of constraint, some sort limitations on where they're going.
SCHIAVONE: Close to half a million federal jobs will switch from public to private sector everything from building maintenance to call sector and the technology sector. Less than half of these jobs actually could be done in another country, but the author of the provision, Senator Barbara Mikulski, a Maryland Democrat, wanted to specify that quote, "Federal work is performed by federal workers."
Some economists don't like it.
DAN GRISWOLD, CATO INSTITUTE: It only applies to a few government agencies and it's expected to affect only about 2 percent of our contracts with India. So, it's not a huge economic impact we talk about here, but a terrible symbolic impact that I think is going hinder progress in opening up markets for U.S. service exports abroad.
SCHIAVONE: The issue is extremely sensitive as Americans see high-tech jobs that has over taken the nation's manufacturing sector.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHIAVONE: Lou, the Bush administration is pushing to privatize certain government operations to save money. Legislators like Barbara Mikulski, oppose increase privatization but couldn't stop it. But they did manage to hold their ground on the key issue of keeping those jobs at home -- Lou.
DOBBS: Good for them. And as some might say, about time.
Louise, thank you very much.
As we reported earlier Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today the millions of American jobs being shipped overseas will eventually be replaced in this country. The key word there is, obviously eventually, which puts millions of unemployed Americans stuck between Greenspan's word of willingness to accept pain on behalf of other Americans, and the words of economist, John Maynard Keynes who once famously noted in the long run we're all dead. In a speech to an economic conference in London today, Greenspan said new jobs will be possible, if the economy stays flexible and American workers retrain.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALAN GREENSPAN, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: We can thus be confident that new jobs will displace old ones, as they always have, but not without a high degree of pain for those caught in the job- losing segment in America's massive job turnover process.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The fed chairman offered no suggestions on exactly what jobs the unemployed in this country should be training for.
That brings us to the subject of "Tonight's Poll."
Do you agree with Chairman Greenspan's comment that new jobs will replace old ones as they always have, yes or no?
Please cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results for you later in here in the broadcast.
Taking a look now at some of "Your Thoughts."
From Chris Casey in Colorado Springs, Colorado on "Exporting American," "Can you tell us why Americans are being told that it is inevitable and we need to roll with it? Why are our so called leaders allowing CEO's to sell off our future for short term gains in earnings, just to please Wall Street?"
And from Kevin Hill in Cavecreek, Arizona, "Please consider listing companies that do not export 'our' jobs. These companies need and deserve all the help they can get. Imagine a paradigm shift where it becomes more important to buy and invest in companies listed on a 'Made in USA 500' list, rather than 'Fortune 500.'" Not a bad thought. We are still thinking about that one.
And Jack from Lady Lake, Florida on "Overwhelmed American." "Does anyone see the similarity between overwhelmed America and overwhelmed National Guard and reserves? Is it remotely possible that the leaders of industry and government have absolutely no concern for the people who make America work?"
Eugene Davis of Bellingham, Washington on "Broken Borders," "As a retired Border Patrol Agent I cannot understand our elected politicians rush to legalize illegal aliens living in the United States without first even suggesting that we need to stop the flow across our borders first. If your basement is being flooded the first step you take is to shut off the flow of water."
Please send us your thoughts at loudobbs@cnn.com.
Sometimes when we hear from our viewers it's in a more public form than e-mail. Today on the Senate floor Senator Ted Kennedy referenced a recent report that may sound similar to many of you watching this broadcast.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: When I got home, a very interesting CNN report. Just at the end of last week on about the "Overwhelmed Americans." The "Overwhelmed Americans." This is what they pointed out. "On their study and their review, wages are stagnant, productivity is soaring, which means many Americans are working more for less and making matters even worse, millions of American workers now find themselves competing with cheaper foreign labor just to hold on to their jobs."
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Senator Kennedy, of course, referring to our series of special reports that we aired here last week, "Overwhelmed America" and we find it interesting that each of those elements that he referred to are becoming of increasing importance on the campaign trail.
Coming up next, a September 11th Commission has revealed surprising new information about our border security before those attacks.
And remarkable pictures sent back to us from the newest visitors to Mars, NASA's Opportunity rover hooking up on with the Spirit.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A look now at the news in brief this evening. Gas prices are up 7 cents a gallon over the past two weeks nationwide. That's the largest hike in prices since last February.
The Lundberg survey says consumers can expect even more price increases because of high demand for crude oil because of our continued cold weather. Bad weather being blamed for at least 25 deaths tonight. Storm warnings have been issued from southern New Jersey to the Carolinas. North Carolina's governor declared a state of emergency today because of the extreme conditions and the bird flu outbreak has left at least seven people dead in Asia, including a boy in Thailand. The country's first human death from the disease, the bird flu continues to spread through Asia and has now hit Pakistan. So far there's no evidence that the virus is spreading from person to person.
On Capitol Hill today, astonishing new details about poor security on our borders before September 11. The independent commission investigating those attacks said as many as eight hijackers had fraudulent visas. At least six of them violated immigration laws after they arrived in the country. Capitol Hill correspondent Joe Johns has the report -- Joe.
JOE JOHNS, CNN CAPITOL HILL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the commission is focusing on what went wrong, but if there was a star witness today, it was a custom's agent who did something right. His name is Jose Melendez-Perez. He works at Orlando airport. On August 2001, he refused to let a man into the country, who some say could have been the 20th hijacker. That suspects name is Mohammed al-Qahtani.
As CNN reported last week telephone reports indicate that Mohammed Atta, the ring leader of the 9/11 attacks was, in fact, at the airport the very same time, the very same day. The question is whether the two men were expected to meet. That custom's agent says he turned Qahtani because he did not know where he was going after he left the U.S.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSE MELENDEZ-PEREZ, CUSTOMS AGENT: First thing that came to mind was he was a hitman. A hitman doesn't know where he's going because if he's caught, that way he doesn't have anything or any information to bargain with. My wife said that I was watching too much movies.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS: Al-Qahtani was, in fact, turned away. He later turned up in Afghanistan where he was taken into custody by U.S. forces. He now resides at Guantanamo Bay. For his quick thinking the custom's agent today got some applause and the gratitude of the commission.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD BEN-VENISTE, SEPTEMBER 11TH COMMISSION: Your actions in doing your job efficiently and competently may well have contributed to saving the capital or the White House and all the people who were in those buildings, those monuments towards democracy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS: This is the seventh meeting of the commission. The next meeting is expected to focus on aviation security. Lou, back to you.
DOBBS: Joe, thank you very much. Good for Officer Melendez- Perez. I don't know how much trouble he will be with his wife after that reference. Thank you very much, Joe. Joe Johns reporting from Washington, good to have you on the network.
JOHNS: Glad to be here.
DOBBS: A federal judge in Los Angeles has ruled part of the Patriot Act to be unconstitutional. The judge said the section which prevents giving expert advice and assistance to groups deemed terrorist organizations is simply too vague and violates the first and fifth amendments. The ruling came in a challenge to the Patriot Act brought by five groups and two U.S. citizens supporting Kurds in Turkey. The Justice Department says it is reviewing the ruling.
On Wall Street stocks opened the week with a powerful rally. The Dow and Nasdaq both closing at two and a half year highs. The Dow surging 134 points, the Nasdaq up 30 and the S&P 500 up almost 14. Christine Romans here now with "The Market" -- Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, it was the biggest rally for the Dow in three months. All but one Dow stock closed higher, never mind the fact that it's been ten months of a rally without a five percent correction. The focus today strong earnings, a powerful housing report and investor optimism at a 22-month high. Also today, Lou, a jury was seeded in the Martha Stewart obstruction of justice trial. Eight women and four men and opening statements begin tomorrow. The prosecution's star witness, assistant broker, former assistant broker Doug Faneuil, could testify as early as tomorrow afternoon.
And, Lou, a report on those now illegal insider loans. The Corporate Library says 65 percent of companies still have loans to executives on the books. Sarbanes-Oxley forbade any new loans after June 2002. Union Pacific is still working off 40 million in loans to top brass it awarded back in 1999. Some of those have been paid back, others forgiven. There's still about 8 million on the books. Tellium had 20 million in loans. There were millions in retention loans for Kmart executives. Chuck Conaway got his and the taxes paid for even though he left the company. That's what I call retention loan.
Intuit, AT&T Wireless, Pepsi Co., Mattel, Sun Microsystems all had millions in loans to management and the report makes a special mention of those companies that rushed in with new loans to top brass just before the Sarbanes-Oxley, Electronic Arts, Sun Microsystems, Reebok and Wyeth. Sneaking in before the deadline.
DOBBS: The spirit of the law or lack of it. Thank you, Christine.
Coming up next, we'll take a look at the latest photos beamed home by the Mars rover Opportunity. But first, an update on the list of companies that we've confirmed to be exporting America, sending American jobs overseas, seeking to employ cheap foreign labor instead of American workers. We are adding tonight, Wyeth, a pharmaceutical manufacturer which is having a lot of fun this evening. Please keep sending us the names of companies you know to be exporting America. Please log on to CNN.com/lou for the entire list. We'll be right back. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The results of our poll tonight -- 11 percent of you said you agree with Chairman Greenspan's comment that, quote, "new jobs will replace old ones as they always have." 89 percent say you do not.
Finally tonight, the Mars rover Opportunity today sent stunning new images of Mars back to earth. The images are so detailed that scientists can see individual grains of dust in them. Opportunity landed inside a small crater over the weekend, just a few feet from the first bedrock ever seen on Mars. NASA scientists are optimistic about the prospects for the damaged rover Spirit to be returned to operation on the other side of the planet. That's our show for tonight. Thank you for being with us. Tomorrow, we'll be joined by the executive director of the National Immigration Forum Frank Sharry and for the latest on the New Hampshire primary, we'll be joined by top political reporters, our top panel of the very best in the business.
For all of us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. Anderson Cooper is next.
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ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, January 26. Here now, Lou Dobbs.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening.
Howard Dean today stepped up his attacks against John Kerry in the final hours of the New Hampshire campaign. Dean questioned Kerry's judgment about foreign policy. Kerry called Dean's comments negative campaigning. Most of pools now say Kerry has a clear lead over Dean.
Kelly Wallace reports on the Kerry campaign from Keene, New Hampshire.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KELLY WALLACE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: With Senator John Kerry leading in the polls, he and his aides face not only the challenge of winning here, but also of meeting expectations.
And that's part of the reason why Kerry's aides are stressing today that they believe this race is going to be very tight and that they are not taking anything for granted.
The senator, for his part, is in the midst of a 16-hour, seven- stop day, traveling by bus and helicopter to get out the vote. Earlier, he was greeting voters in Rochester. Then, he flew by helicopter here to the campus of Keene State College to talk to undecided voters. One of the toughest questions he got today from a man who asked how Kerry, as a Vietnam veteran who protested that war, could go ahead and give President Bush the authority to go to war with Iraq.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you think I would have gone to war the way George Bush did, don't vote for me.
WALLACE: And some volunteers for Howard Dean on this campus as well trying to hand out videotapes of Dean's appearance with his wife, Judy, on ABC to any undecided voters.
Now, while Kerry's advisers try to focus on victory here tomorrow, they're also looking ahead to the next round of primaries. The senator will be traveling first to Missouri, the biggest delegate prize on February 3, before heading to South Carolina, which holds the first primary in the South.
Kelly Wallace, CNN, reporting from Keene, New Hampshire. (END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Howard Dean today said he's closing the gap with John Kerry very fast, as he put it.
Candy Crowley is following the Dean campaign and reports from Manchester, New Hampshire.
Candy, just how is Dean catching up with Kerry?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, he seems to, at least, have put that overheated concession speech in Iowa behind him.
They do believe that they're moving up in the polls. In fact, all the polls show that there is upward movement. The question is, is he doing it fast enough to catch up with John Kerry by tomorrow night? The fact of the matter is that another loss here is going to be very hard on the campaign coffers for Howard Dean. So, a win here would really help.
I have to tell you, Lou, that, yesterday, Howard Dean was talking in terms of the possibility of winning. Today, he is voicing much more confidence, saying, we're going to win Iowa -- I'm sorry -- going to win New Hampshire. So, there is definitely a much more upbeat feeling to the Dean campaign. Whether that's going to materialize at the voting polls tomorrow is open to question, because they felt very, very good right before the Iowa vote as well -- Lou.
DOBBS: Candy, just how important is a win in New Hampshire tomorrow?
CROWLEY: It's pretty important.
Look, the Dean people say, they have got money enough to go on until March. But the fact of the matter is that they have spent, in the past week at least $1.1 million in advertising here in New Hampshire. You add that to the fact that they spent a lot more money in Iowa than they wanted to, and what you have is campaign that thought it was going to clear the decks early on and have a lot of money in these upcoming states looking at a seven-state primary day in a week.
And it's going to have to start making some strategic decisions if, in fact, he doesn't pull out a win here tomorrow. A strong second might even help, but a win would be better even because, as you know, Lou, your success in the polls is directly tied to your success at bringing in contributors -- Lou.
DOBBS: Absolutely. Candy, thank you very much.
Well, while Dean and Kerry are apparently fighting for first place in New Hampshire, three other candidates are in a close contest for third. The latest polls show John Edwards, Wes Clark and Joe Lieberman in a virtual dead heat.
Bob Franken reports from Manchester, New Hampshire -- Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the winner of that one could probably do a great degree to help his campaign.
The ones who don't do well are going to have a lot of explaining to do. Wesley Clark has spent a lot of the time explaining himself. This is a man who is running for the first time here in New Hampshire. And he keeps hoping that the trend upward in the polls is going to go on. But keeps on tripping over his own words. Witness what happened today, when he tried to contrast himself as the common man, contrasting himself with the silver spoons that he said were his opponents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I didn't go to Yale. My parents couldn't have afforded to send me there. I went to West Point. I paid my own way through college.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FRANKEN: One teensy-weensy problem. The people who go to West Point, the cadets there, have their tuition fully paid, in addition to which, John Edwards is the man who likes to paint himself as the one who came from humble beginnings.
Later, Wes Clark said he didn't really mean John Edwards. And then there's Joe Lieberman. He needs to have a victory here, the victory being a good showing, something better than the fifth-place showing that he's really having in the polls right now. Lou, he says he is going to rely on the independent voters. That's no small deal. There's a huge chunk of independent voters in New Hampshire. It's one of the explanations for why this state frequently defies expectations -- Wolf -- excuse me -- Lou.
(LAUGHTER)
DOBBS: Bob, that's fine. Thank you very much, Bob Franken from Manchester. Wolf is tomorrow.
The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll in New Hampshire shows Senator John Kerry holding a comfortable lead. However, the reason many New Hampshire Democrats plan to vote for him is not only because of his ideas or his values, but because of something else altogether.
Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, joins us now from Manchester -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Lou.
Well, let's take a look at that latest horse race figure for where the race stands as of last night. Kerry is in the lead, 36 to 25. That's an 11-point lead, with a very tight race, as you indicated, between Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. Now, I should point out that there are about five or six tracking polls bouncing around New Hampshire. They all show Kerry ahead. But the margins vary from three points in one poll, 11, as you see here with our poll. Some of them are as high as 18 and 20 points. So there's a huge variation, all of them Kerry in the lead. And that makes a difference, because, if Kerry wins narrowly, he won't get much bounce. He's expected to win. He's from next door.
But if he wins a big victory here, then he will look like a certifiable front-runner, having won back-to-back victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
DOBBS: Bill? Bill, can you hear me?
SCHNEIDER: Well, yes, I do.
DOBBS: Good.
There is at least one poll that shows about a three-point difference between Kerry and Dean. What do you make of that?
SCHNEIDER: Well, there are always outliers. Look, it could be true.
New Hampshire polls have a terrible record of predicting. These days, voters make up their minds on their own time. So I'm saying is, you don't believe any one poll. That one has three points. Ours had 11. You look at all of them. And when you look at all of them, you say, well, it looks like Kerry is ahead, but we don't know by how much. And by how much is critical in this race.
Why is Kerry leading? That's an interesting question. And we asked people, who do you think will be best to beat George Bush? And that is where Kerry has built up his lead. Take a look at this; 56 percent say John Kerry has the best chance of beating Bush. Dean is way behind at 16, everybody else in single digits.
It's a really interesting phenomena that John Kerry is well-known here in New Hampshire. He was the front-runner at first. Then he started dropping. And he had to go all the way to Iowa, start his campaign all over again, to reintroduce himself here to the voters in New Hampshire to convince them, hey, maybe this guy isn't just a neighbor. Maybe he's serious candidate. And now they're flocking to him as the most electable.
DOBBS: Well, it appears they're flocking to him, to usher in words of caution, again, the volatility, the uncertainty of it all, the polling that we pay so much attention to, as you suggest, not entirely reliable.
Bill, just what exactly, though, does that polling that we might as well ignore, apparently, based on the results, suggest is the most important issue for voters tomorrow?
SCHNEIDER: Well, they say the economy. And there's an irony there, because, today, the stock market hit a 31-month high. So if the economy is the issue Democrats are voting on, that might not be such a terrific issue, Lou. The truth of the matter is, this is not a race driven by the issues. Sorry, folks. It just isn't, because there isn't much difference between these candidates on the issues. They all basically agree they want to repeal the tax cuts, or at least part of them or all of them. There are just nuances of difference.
They're all against what we're doing in Iraq, but there are just little nuances of difference. They're all for abortion rights. I mean, basically, they all agree on most important issues.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Well, they're all Democrats, right, Bill?
SCHNEIDER: They're all Democrats.
(LAUGHTER)
SCHNEIDER: They're supposed to agree.
So, if you're supposed to pick on this long list of Democrats, which one do you want? A lot of these voters say, we want to pick the one that's going to beat George Bush. That's John Kerry right now. That's why he's attracting all that support. You know what? If Wesley Clark had won in Iowa, I have a feeling, he might have been John Kerry. But he didn't run in Iowa, so he's not.
DOBBS: What if Howard Dean would had won? Would he be John Kerry?
(LAUGHTER)
SCHNEIDER: That might be a problem, because a lot of voters look at Howard Dean and they say, can he beat George Bush? That's the problem with Howard Dean. He has problems of lack of experience, not the right temperament. That's why these voters, who once favored Howard Dean by a 25-point margin, seem to have abandoned him in large numbers.
DOBBS: All right. You're not suggesting that that 56 percent response to who can beat George Bush is based entirely on Iowa, are you?
SCHNEIDER: It's based a lot on Iowa, but it's also based on Howard Dean.
That 56 percent who say that they think he can beat George Bush, they don't see anybody else.
I'll tell you why they think that, because I've talked to a lot of voters here. They see him as someone with military experience, someone with a lot of international expertise.
DOBBS: Are you back on Clark again? (CROSSTALK)
SCHNEIDER: No, no, Kerry.
DOBBS: Oh, Kerry.
SCHNEIDER: No, Kerry. Kerry and Clark have exactly the same appeal.
DOBBS: I am just trying to get this sorted out. You had Clark as Kerry and Kerry as Clark. I was getting confused.
SCHNEIDER: And there's a reason for that, because they have exactly the same appeal, electability.
That's why I said, if Clark had run in Iowa, he might have been Kerry. He might have been the winner, because they're both electable, but Kerry got there first. They both promise to keep you safe. They have military experience. They have foreign policy experience. They look like people who can stand next to Bush and talk credibly about national security. And you know what? The other Democrats can't.
DOBBS: At least according to the polls that we're not entirely sure we entirely trust. Is that right, Bill?
SCHNEIDER: That's exactly right.
DOBBS: Bill Schneider, thank you, as always. Look forward to your analysis and reporting tomorrow.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
DOBBS: Still ahead here, we'll be talking with the head Democrat, Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe. We'll be talking about the race for his party's nomination and what they plan to do to take on President Bush. He joins me to give us his assessment of the presidential campaign so far, the challenge of competing against President Bush, the challenge of all those challengers.
And the White House, well, the White House says the war against Saddam Hussein was justified, after former weapons inspector David Kay says, Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction.
And in "Exporting America" tonight, overseas competition destroying an entire American industry and the jobs of thousands.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: American troops in Iraq today searched the Tigris River, looking for three missing American soldiers, two of the soldiers pilots on a Kiowa helicopter. The other soldier was on a river patrol boat that capsized. The helicopter crashed while it searched for survivors from the patrol boat. Army officials say the helicopter problem hit a power line. Six other soldiers were killed in bomb attacks over the weekend.
New controversy about whether or not Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq. U.S. officials today repeated their view that it is far too early to say definitively that Iraq did or did not have such weapons. But the former head of the weapons hunt, David Kay, says it is unlikely Iraq had any stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction.
National security correspondent David Ensor has the report for us -- David.
DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Lou, since being replaced Friday, former weapons inspector David Kay has been talking plenty. He's blaming the CIA, his employers until Friday, not the White House, for apparently getting it wrong on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
DAVID KAY, FORMER CHIEF U.S. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I actually think the intelligence community owes the president, rather than the president owing the American people.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
ENSOR: Administration officials liked that last comment. And they liked Kay's statement that Baghdad was actively working to produce a biological weapon using the poison ricin until the American invasion last month.
But his comment that he expects no weapons to be found has put the administration on the defensive. On Capitol Hill, Democrats saw Kay's statements as another reason that Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts should look into what went wrong at the CIA and at the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D-SD), MINORITY LEADER: If he fails to do so, we will again bring legislation to the Senate floor to establish a nonpartisan, independent commission to look at how intelligence was used by the intelligence community and this administration.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ENSOR: U.S. intelligence officials insist it's still premature to say, as Kay has, that no weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq.
They note that Kay says he quit because he didn't have enough people and yet now he says there's no point in looking because there's nothing to find. As one official put it, you can't have it both ways -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, perhaps he can, because he is. David, the fact is that the chief weapons inspector in this search for weapons of mass destruction says, in his judgment, they're not there. There have been reports, alternatively, that Iraq is a huge area to search, that it's all but impossible, reports that weapons were transferred to Syria and other places. What are we to make of those scenarios now?
ENSOR: Well, Kay, over the weekend, did say that it was possible that there was overhead photography showing a lot of trucks moving into Syria just before the war started. He subsequently said, however that there was no intelligence suggesting any nonconventional weapons or weapons parts had moved over that border.
It really just is very difficult to tell whether there are still weapons there. Obviously, the conventional wisdom now is that there are not. And yet, I still talk to some weapons inspectors who believe they may find some chemical weapons, a few, at least, buried in the sands in Iraq. So, the CIA is saying, the job isn't finished yet -- Lou.
DOBBS: David, thank you -- David Ensor, our national security correspondent, reporting from Washington.
The White House, for its part, stands by its decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime. But White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration will eventually review prewar intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
Kathleen Koch reports from the White House -- Kathleen.
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the administration is obviously stinging from these statements by former inspector David Kay and is beginning to adjust its carefully chosen language on Iraq and weapons of mass destruction.
Traveling with President Bush in Little Rock, Arkansas, today, his spokesman, Scott McClellan, said that the CIA is already doing some work on this, that is, the quality of the intelligence that the president was given. McClellan said the administration needs to compare the intelligence before the war with what weapons inspectors are learning now on the ground.
McClellan insists that Mr. Bush does still have confidence in CIA Director George Tenet. But neither the president, McClellan, nor Vice President Dick Cheney, traveling in Italy today, would repeat past statements that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons ready to deploy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today, the former dictator sits in captivity. He can no longer harbor or support terrorists. And his long efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction are at an end.
(END VIDEO CLIP) KOCH: And President Bush, in his speech today, did not mention Saddam Hussein once, did not mention once the danger that Saddam Hussein once posed in Iraq and to the world at large. These are subjects the president does generally include in his speeches. The president only more obliquely referred to the war on terror and praised intelligence officers for helping capture an al Qaeda operative in Iraq last week -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kathleen, is there any concern that the president simply take responsibility, that the agencies that David Kay is criticizing might feel that they're in need of a president stepping up and taking responsibility for the decision, if not the intelligence?
KOCH: Lou, the administration is not ready to go there at this point yet, Lou. They're simply maintaining that the inspectors have got to finish their work and that no decision, that no final deduction on weapons of mass destruction can be made until that work is done.
DOBBS: Kathleen, thank you very much -- Kathleen Koch reporting from the White House on this chilly evening.
Coming up next, Democratic showdown. We'll be talking with the national committee chairman, Terry McAuliffe and we'll talk about the race for his party's nomination and what they plan to do to take on President Bush.
And Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he's not worried about the millions of American jobs lost to cheap labor markets overseas. It's all about economics.
We'll have that story and a great deal more still ahead, coming right up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: My guest tonight says the seven Democratic presidential candidates have invigorated voters and will draw record numbers of them in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. Who else could be saying such a thing but Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, joining us tonight from Washington, D.C.
Terry, good to have you here.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, DNC CHAIRMAN: Lou, great to be back with you.
DOBBS: This process has been difficult for you, I know, with originally nine candidates. And you're winnowing it down quickly. What do you expect to be the dominant issue in determining the outcome of tomorrow's election?
MCAULIFFE: Well, we actually started with 10. We've gone through -- Senator Graham went out early.
But I think, after tomorrow, you'll see the process. People have got to assess their candidacy. But I think the beginning of the winnowing process will start after February 3, when we have seven states all over the country. But it's not up to me. It's going to be up to the voters to make that decision and for the candidates.
We are about beating George Bush. That's what this race is all about. But I remind you, Lou, we had a record turnout in Iowa, the biggest in the history of the state; 55 percent were new voters. I spoke to the state chair in New Hampshire this morning. She predicts 165,000 to 175,000 people going to the polls tomorrow.
That's exciting. Our message is working. And they know we can beat George Bush. And they don't like what he's doing as president.
DOBBS: They don't like what he's doing. Let's -- the fact of the matter is that, in New Hampshire, you had job losses. You've had a lot of difficulty. You're trying, obviously to energize the base. With this many candidates, you ought to be able to do that.
Also a forecast of, well, bad weather, if not a blizzard, do you think that that -- does that turnout really matter or is it just simply getting the next step forward in the primary process?
MCAULIFFE: Well, sure it matters.
It shows the enthusiasm in New Hampshire. This is a state that we need to win this November 2. It is a target state for us, just as Iowa was a target state. But the issues of job creation, health care, education -- as you know, yesterday, you saw the "Newsweek" poll; 44 percent of Americans think that George Bush deserves reelection; 52 think he does not deserve reelection. The Zogby poll had him at 41 percent.
Lou, that is astounding. This is a wartime president and his reelection is in the low 40s. I remind you, on this very week in 1992, President Clinton was 17 points down to former President Bush. I've got candidates today -- I've got one candidate beating the president outright, three more within the margin of error. His State of the Union was a bomb. He dropped four points in the State of the Union.
Nothing against his laudable goals of abstinence in high school and training prisoners and steroids for athletes, but you know what? Americans want to know, where are their jobs? Where are their health care benefits? Forty-three and half million Americans with no health insurance at all. Education. Right here in Virginia, you just saw that the state legislature, very conservative, just pulled out of the Leave No Child Behind, because they say it's unfunded mandates.
DOBBS: Terry...
MCAULIFFE: Those are the issues, Lou.
DOBBS: Those are certainly some of them, Terry.
MCAULIFFE: Yes.
DOBBS: But the fact is, you've got candidates that are just beating the dickens out of each other daily and nightly. You've got Kerry and Dean locked up, slugging it out. What's the price there? Are you trying to caution them a bit and try to remind them who they're trying to ultimately whip or just, is this part of the process?
MCAULIFFE: Well, I think we'll have a nominee by March 10. And we're all going to come together. I you've announced our major unity event here in Washington, D.C.
But you know what? This is no different, Lou, than any other primary we have had. I remind you, four years ago, George Bush's allies attacked John McCain's mental sanity. They attacked his patriotism. They attacked his wife and his children. And I remind you, in 1992, President Clinton went through a vicious primary all the way through May of 1992. This is no different.
They are running. This is the Democratic Party. We're a big, broad, diverse party, talking about a lot of different issues. The goal is to come together. And March 10, we'll come together unified as one party, putting our operations together. And then it will give us six months to go one on one against George Bush, a president right now in the low 40s on reelect who has neglected America. He has run up huge budget deficits.
DOBBS: A -- $477 billion the latest forecast from the CBO.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Terry McAuliffe, it sounds like you can't get this nominee in place, so you can take on the incumbent president. I would never have suspected that of you until just now, talking with you, of course.
Terry, thank you very much.
MCAULIFFE: Lou, great to be with you.
DOBBS: Before you leave tonight, would you like to forecast the outcome of the New Hampshire primary tomorrow?
MCAULIFFE: We're going to have seven Democratic winners tomorrow. George Bush is going to be the loser tomorrow in New Hampshire.
DOBBS: Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic Committee, thanks.
MCAULIFFE: Thanks, Lou.
Coming up next, we'll have more on the fight for the Democratic nomination. Our political panel joins us, Karen Tumulty of "TIME" magazine, Roger Simon of "U.S. News & World Report," and Ron Brownstein of "The L.A. Times." They join us.
And tonight, our special report, "Exporting America." A massive spending bill to be signed by President Bush could help keep some jobs in this country, believe it or not. And, from 36 million miles away, we'll have an extraordinary new look at the surface of the planet Mars -- all of that, a great deal more, still ahead.
Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The race for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire is extremely close. As we've reported, the results could shrink the current field of seven candidates.
Joining me now, our panel of top political journalists covering this primary, Ron Brownstein, the national political correspondent for "The Los Angeles Times," Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent for "TIME" magazine, both, as you see, in Manchester, New Hampshire, in familiar settings. And Roger Simon, political editor, "U.S. News & World Report," joining us from Washington, D.C.
Good to have you all here.
You just heard -- I hope you heard Terry McAuliffe say, we're going to see seven winners tomorrow. This is still a slug fest between Dean and Kerry.
Karen, what is your -- is there going to be any fallout, as we are led to believe there was in Iowa, as a result of negative campaigning?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME": Well, a lot of this stuff happens at the very end. And you don't find out about it, in fact, until after the fact.
But at this point, it's actually been a fairly low-key and, you know, softball race, compared to what we saw in Iowa. I think the lesson of John Edwards' surprising surge was that people have sort of a limited appetite for all this, these attacks on each other.
DOBBS: Ron, Bill Schneider, our political analyst at CNN, is basically saying the Democrats are really separated by nuance and subtlety, although sometimes that subtlety escapes me. Do you agree with that view or is there real, substantive difference that separates these seven candidates?
RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, I think there are differences, obviously, on issues, but they've chosen not to stress them here. Karen's this has been the decaf version of the New Hampshire primary, the ones that I have seen.
The lesson they took out of Iowa is they can't go after each other on issues that are seen as negative. They're focusing on personal characteristics. Different kinds of experience. Wesley Clark talked about executive experience. John Edwards talked about experience outside of Washington. Howard Dean talks about his experience as a governor. There are issue differences, and obviously not as big as they are in a general election, but every primary, whether it's Bill Bradley and Al Gore, or Gary Hart and Walter Mondale, they have to make big distinctions out of small differences. I think that will return after New Hampshire but it's not here right now.
DOBBS: Let me show you somebody that it looked to me as though he were trying to energize the base in New Hampshire. If we could please show the comments of Senator Kennedy on the floor of the U.S. Senate today, if we have that, could you please run that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: 40 percent of the New Hampshire taxpayers will receive less than $100 from the Bush tax plan in 2004. The top 1 percent of New Hampshire taxpayers receive 28 percent of the benefits in 2004 and get an average tax cut of over 67,000.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Roger, that sounds like class warfare, it sounds like a Democratic senator trying to excite the base in New Hampshire. As a matter of fact, he sounded more like a candidate than some of the candidates, what's going on?
ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": He wishes he were still a candidate. It shows you, actually, what Ron and Karen were saying, that the candidates are afraid to attack each other, so they have to use surrogates, Ted Kennedy as a surrogate for John Kerry. He's endorsed him as campaigning for him and rather than John Kerry going out and being too heated, they're going to use Ted Kennedy to do the hot button stuff. Kerry now is making himself more likable. It worked in Iowa, working so far in New Hampshire and Howard Dean never thought likability would have to be his strong suit, but even he is talking about it now.
DOBBS: Howard Dean, Karen, everyone keeps focusing on the so- called "I have a scream" speech, but the fact is Howard Dean finished third in Iowa before he ever delivered that speech. Are those problems that led to him being third in Iowa now, have they been handled? Is he more attractive in New Hampshire? Will he do considerably better than third?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, he's certainly more subdued. The Howard Dean that I saw today looked like the Howard Dean of last week on Valium. He's also talking a lot more about himself as a person, his wife Judy Dean is campaigning with him and, in fact, to humanize Howard Dean, the campaign has bought something like 100,000 copies of Howard and Judy Dean's interview with Diane Sawyer and they're going around the state and distributing them door to door to every undecided voter they could find. So clearly, the calculation here is that people need to see Howard Dean as a human being and not an attack dog.
BROWNSTEIN: Can I add something there, Lou?
DOBBS: Please. BROWNSTEIN: While Howard Dean is doing that this week, I think they're also laying the predicate for the argument they want to have with John Kerry, if they come out with enough strength to really do so and I think they probably fought more than the other campaigns about how they might run against Kerry and what Dean is doing this week is putting up advertising and trying to present himself as a politician of conviction who takes tough stands when they're unpopular whether it's signing the civil unions bill in Vermont or opposing the war in the fall of 2002 when most Americans supported it.
And I think what they've begun to do and will do, I think, with more volume and velocity after New Hampshire is argue that Kerry is the opposite. He's a trimmer, a politician of convenience who moves his positions around, depending on which way the wind is blowing. They're trying to ready the ground for that argument but feel they can't launch it here in New Hampshire because he was so damaged in Iowa and has to rehabilitate his own image first.
DOBBS: Roger, your best assessment as to who we realize Kerry is leading in all the polls, in most by a good margin. Who do you think will win and who will be second and third?
SIMON: I get the easy question.
DOBBS: You're the political editor of "U.S. News and World Report." You have the standing for this.
SIMON: I think there are two tickets out of New Hampshire, plus John Edwards. I'll give you the reverse, I think Lieberman drops out on Wednesday or at least, he should drop out on Wednesday if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire. He finishes in single digits or very low double digits. I don't know more than anyone else who's watching these polls. Looks like Kerry is ahead and Dean in second, it looks like people are bunched up for third. If Clark does not do reasonable well in New Hampshire, I think his campaign will be in big trouble as he heads to the seven states of February 3. He has to give people some reason for his candidacy and some reason he's in this race.
DOBBS: Karen, you get the...
TUMULTY: Yes, I agree with every single one of the things that Roger said. It's so difficult. Four years ago the polls that were taken on this day, the polls were 20 points off. They were predicting a narrow victory for George Bush and we saw John McCain simply swamped, swamping George Bush. So the polls here are just absolutely notoriously unreliable.
DOBBS: Unreliable or the people of New Hampshire have a great sense of humor. Ron, you get the concluding thought.
BROWNSTEIN: I broadly agree but I do think that here down the stretch John Kerry has not been quite aggressive enough in trying to close this. He's been behaving, I think, a little bit too much like a front-runner. I saw more energy at a Howard Dean event than at a John Kerry event. Dean did himself a lot of damage, but Lou, he also has a lot of real support up here and my guess is he comes out of this with a strong enough second place that he's still able to sustain himself and I agree, John Edwards will go on to South Carolina and probably do very well there.
DOBBS: OK. Roger, Ron, Karen. Thank you, we look forward to seeing you tomorrow as decision day approaches. Thanks.
Tonight's thought is on politics. Heavy turnout is forecast for New Hampshire tomorrow. Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. Those are the words of Plato.
Coming up next. Exporting America. Factories are closing, Americans are still losing their jobs as more manufacturing leaves this country in pursuit of cheaper labor overseas. We'll have that for you.
Shocking gaps revealed in our border security before the September 11 attacks. That report for you from Washington. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: An entire industry is now in critical condition in this country because it's being exported overseas. Embroidery, a craft, an industry, one of the mainstays of the New Jersey economy for more than a century. But apparel manufacturers have been taking advantage of cheap overseas labor and the embroidery industry has changed forever. Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Mitchell Pfeiffer has worked in the New Jersey embroidery industry for 30 years, but now he's watching that business slip through his fingers.
MITCHELL PFEIFFER, L&L CORP.: Mostly China, some Sri Lanka, India, Mexico, everywhere but here.
VILES: The embroidery industry isn't going anywhere, but its customers are. American clothing manufacturers going overseas for cheaper labor.
ED PARSEGHIAN, DEERROCK FABRICS: The manufacturers are competing with other manufacturers. So if one goes to China, the other one will go to China, right? So, eventually they all have to go overseas otherwise they can't compete.
VILES: Left behind, hundreds of small New Jersey factors that once made 90 percent of the embroidery in American lingerie, clothing, bedding and even flags. Many of those factories now vacant.
PFEIFFER: It's disaster, absolute disaster.
VILES: This was once a half a billion a year industry with up to 7,000 jobs, fewer than 1,000 of those jobs are now left. PROF. SILVIO LACCETTI, STEVENE INST. OF TECHNOLOGY: If you replicate this everywhere there are kinds of industries like this, then you begin to see it on a national level. It's not just one industry. If it was only one industry, I guess we would lose it.
But so many industries like it, we have to answer the question, do we want to lose them all?
VILES: The industry looked for help in Washington, but did not find it.
PFEIFFER: We sent people down to Congress and they gave us an answer like you can bring us 100,000 signatures and $1 million and we can't do anything for you people. You are a sacrificial lamb.
VILES: Mitch Pfeiffer once ran a family business with 20 employees and now all those jobs are gone and he works for himself in a business that is wasting away.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: Now it's hard to argue that embroidery itself is some out vital to our national economy. But it is part of our culture, it is a craft that provides descent incomes, up to $30,000 for these workers and it's not dyeing, it's just leaving America. We'll still have embroidery in clothing, just won't do it here.
DOBBS: As is the case in so many industries, including high- value tech jobs that are also being exported. One of the most chilling comments to me came from Alan Greenspan today speaking in London suggesting this is just a painful process, but, nonetheless, a historical imparity. I mean, that's ridiculous.
VILES: And not particularly painful for the bankers at the Federal Reserve, they're not experiencing it. We don't know if that's the case. Many economists believe there will be new jobs, but we don't believe the pain is for some higher economic goal at this point.
DOBBS: You talked about -- it's hardly high science to suggest that you have faith that these jobs have been created, particularly since the high value jobs and technology that was the offset to those low-value jobs in manufacturing. You know, one of the interesting things here that we should share with the audience here tonight, our viewers at home, you mentioned embroidery and focused on it there. But the fact is in this country that 96 percent of all apparel is manufactured outside these borders.
VILES: Yes, the customer base has just gone. When some customer base was here they did embroidery here. They have gone overseas and do embroidery overseas. The factories are still here, the work is gone.
DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) the best and biggest consumer market in the world.
VILES: Sure, and still consuming embroidery. DOBBS: Pete, thanks. Peter Viles.
Exporting American jobs also a topic in the spending bill the Congress passed just last week. The law now awaiting the signature of President Bush places severe restrictions on government work that can be exported overseas.
Louise Schiavone has the story from Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOUISE SCHIAVONE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As the government moves certain public sector jobs to private contractors, Congress says those jobs may not move overseas.
JOHN THRELKELD, AMER. FEDERATION OF GOVT. EMPLOYEES: It shows bipartisan concern about the Bush administration's privatization agenda and an attempt to put some sort of constraint, some sort limitations on where they're going.
SCHIAVONE: Close to half a million federal jobs will switch from public to private sector everything from building maintenance to call sector and the technology sector. Less than half of these jobs actually could be done in another country, but the author of the provision, Senator Barbara Mikulski, a Maryland Democrat, wanted to specify that quote, "Federal work is performed by federal workers."
Some economists don't like it.
DAN GRISWOLD, CATO INSTITUTE: It only applies to a few government agencies and it's expected to affect only about 2 percent of our contracts with India. So, it's not a huge economic impact we talk about here, but a terrible symbolic impact that I think is going hinder progress in opening up markets for U.S. service exports abroad.
SCHIAVONE: The issue is extremely sensitive as Americans see high-tech jobs that has over taken the nation's manufacturing sector.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHIAVONE: Lou, the Bush administration is pushing to privatize certain government operations to save money. Legislators like Barbara Mikulski, oppose increase privatization but couldn't stop it. But they did manage to hold their ground on the key issue of keeping those jobs at home -- Lou.
DOBBS: Good for them. And as some might say, about time.
Louise, thank you very much.
As we reported earlier Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today the millions of American jobs being shipped overseas will eventually be replaced in this country. The key word there is, obviously eventually, which puts millions of unemployed Americans stuck between Greenspan's word of willingness to accept pain on behalf of other Americans, and the words of economist, John Maynard Keynes who once famously noted in the long run we're all dead. In a speech to an economic conference in London today, Greenspan said new jobs will be possible, if the economy stays flexible and American workers retrain.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALAN GREENSPAN, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: We can thus be confident that new jobs will displace old ones, as they always have, but not without a high degree of pain for those caught in the job- losing segment in America's massive job turnover process.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The fed chairman offered no suggestions on exactly what jobs the unemployed in this country should be training for.
That brings us to the subject of "Tonight's Poll."
Do you agree with Chairman Greenspan's comment that new jobs will replace old ones as they always have, yes or no?
Please cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results for you later in here in the broadcast.
Taking a look now at some of "Your Thoughts."
From Chris Casey in Colorado Springs, Colorado on "Exporting American," "Can you tell us why Americans are being told that it is inevitable and we need to roll with it? Why are our so called leaders allowing CEO's to sell off our future for short term gains in earnings, just to please Wall Street?"
And from Kevin Hill in Cavecreek, Arizona, "Please consider listing companies that do not export 'our' jobs. These companies need and deserve all the help they can get. Imagine a paradigm shift where it becomes more important to buy and invest in companies listed on a 'Made in USA 500' list, rather than 'Fortune 500.'" Not a bad thought. We are still thinking about that one.
And Jack from Lady Lake, Florida on "Overwhelmed American." "Does anyone see the similarity between overwhelmed America and overwhelmed National Guard and reserves? Is it remotely possible that the leaders of industry and government have absolutely no concern for the people who make America work?"
Eugene Davis of Bellingham, Washington on "Broken Borders," "As a retired Border Patrol Agent I cannot understand our elected politicians rush to legalize illegal aliens living in the United States without first even suggesting that we need to stop the flow across our borders first. If your basement is being flooded the first step you take is to shut off the flow of water."
Please send us your thoughts at loudobbs@cnn.com.
Sometimes when we hear from our viewers it's in a more public form than e-mail. Today on the Senate floor Senator Ted Kennedy referenced a recent report that may sound similar to many of you watching this broadcast.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: When I got home, a very interesting CNN report. Just at the end of last week on about the "Overwhelmed Americans." The "Overwhelmed Americans." This is what they pointed out. "On their study and their review, wages are stagnant, productivity is soaring, which means many Americans are working more for less and making matters even worse, millions of American workers now find themselves competing with cheaper foreign labor just to hold on to their jobs."
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Senator Kennedy, of course, referring to our series of special reports that we aired here last week, "Overwhelmed America" and we find it interesting that each of those elements that he referred to are becoming of increasing importance on the campaign trail.
Coming up next, a September 11th Commission has revealed surprising new information about our border security before those attacks.
And remarkable pictures sent back to us from the newest visitors to Mars, NASA's Opportunity rover hooking up on with the Spirit.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A look now at the news in brief this evening. Gas prices are up 7 cents a gallon over the past two weeks nationwide. That's the largest hike in prices since last February.
The Lundberg survey says consumers can expect even more price increases because of high demand for crude oil because of our continued cold weather. Bad weather being blamed for at least 25 deaths tonight. Storm warnings have been issued from southern New Jersey to the Carolinas. North Carolina's governor declared a state of emergency today because of the extreme conditions and the bird flu outbreak has left at least seven people dead in Asia, including a boy in Thailand. The country's first human death from the disease, the bird flu continues to spread through Asia and has now hit Pakistan. So far there's no evidence that the virus is spreading from person to person.
On Capitol Hill today, astonishing new details about poor security on our borders before September 11. The independent commission investigating those attacks said as many as eight hijackers had fraudulent visas. At least six of them violated immigration laws after they arrived in the country. Capitol Hill correspondent Joe Johns has the report -- Joe.
JOE JOHNS, CNN CAPITOL HILL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the commission is focusing on what went wrong, but if there was a star witness today, it was a custom's agent who did something right. His name is Jose Melendez-Perez. He works at Orlando airport. On August 2001, he refused to let a man into the country, who some say could have been the 20th hijacker. That suspects name is Mohammed al-Qahtani.
As CNN reported last week telephone reports indicate that Mohammed Atta, the ring leader of the 9/11 attacks was, in fact, at the airport the very same time, the very same day. The question is whether the two men were expected to meet. That custom's agent says he turned Qahtani because he did not know where he was going after he left the U.S.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSE MELENDEZ-PEREZ, CUSTOMS AGENT: First thing that came to mind was he was a hitman. A hitman doesn't know where he's going because if he's caught, that way he doesn't have anything or any information to bargain with. My wife said that I was watching too much movies.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS: Al-Qahtani was, in fact, turned away. He later turned up in Afghanistan where he was taken into custody by U.S. forces. He now resides at Guantanamo Bay. For his quick thinking the custom's agent today got some applause and the gratitude of the commission.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD BEN-VENISTE, SEPTEMBER 11TH COMMISSION: Your actions in doing your job efficiently and competently may well have contributed to saving the capital or the White House and all the people who were in those buildings, those monuments towards democracy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS: This is the seventh meeting of the commission. The next meeting is expected to focus on aviation security. Lou, back to you.
DOBBS: Joe, thank you very much. Good for Officer Melendez- Perez. I don't know how much trouble he will be with his wife after that reference. Thank you very much, Joe. Joe Johns reporting from Washington, good to have you on the network.
JOHNS: Glad to be here.
DOBBS: A federal judge in Los Angeles has ruled part of the Patriot Act to be unconstitutional. The judge said the section which prevents giving expert advice and assistance to groups deemed terrorist organizations is simply too vague and violates the first and fifth amendments. The ruling came in a challenge to the Patriot Act brought by five groups and two U.S. citizens supporting Kurds in Turkey. The Justice Department says it is reviewing the ruling.
On Wall Street stocks opened the week with a powerful rally. The Dow and Nasdaq both closing at two and a half year highs. The Dow surging 134 points, the Nasdaq up 30 and the S&P 500 up almost 14. Christine Romans here now with "The Market" -- Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, it was the biggest rally for the Dow in three months. All but one Dow stock closed higher, never mind the fact that it's been ten months of a rally without a five percent correction. The focus today strong earnings, a powerful housing report and investor optimism at a 22-month high. Also today, Lou, a jury was seeded in the Martha Stewart obstruction of justice trial. Eight women and four men and opening statements begin tomorrow. The prosecution's star witness, assistant broker, former assistant broker Doug Faneuil, could testify as early as tomorrow afternoon.
And, Lou, a report on those now illegal insider loans. The Corporate Library says 65 percent of companies still have loans to executives on the books. Sarbanes-Oxley forbade any new loans after June 2002. Union Pacific is still working off 40 million in loans to top brass it awarded back in 1999. Some of those have been paid back, others forgiven. There's still about 8 million on the books. Tellium had 20 million in loans. There were millions in retention loans for Kmart executives. Chuck Conaway got his and the taxes paid for even though he left the company. That's what I call retention loan.
Intuit, AT&T Wireless, Pepsi Co., Mattel, Sun Microsystems all had millions in loans to management and the report makes a special mention of those companies that rushed in with new loans to top brass just before the Sarbanes-Oxley, Electronic Arts, Sun Microsystems, Reebok and Wyeth. Sneaking in before the deadline.
DOBBS: The spirit of the law or lack of it. Thank you, Christine.
Coming up next, we'll take a look at the latest photos beamed home by the Mars rover Opportunity. But first, an update on the list of companies that we've confirmed to be exporting America, sending American jobs overseas, seeking to employ cheap foreign labor instead of American workers. We are adding tonight, Wyeth, a pharmaceutical manufacturer which is having a lot of fun this evening. Please keep sending us the names of companies you know to be exporting America. Please log on to CNN.com/lou for the entire list. We'll be right back. Please stay with us.
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DOBBS: The results of our poll tonight -- 11 percent of you said you agree with Chairman Greenspan's comment that, quote, "new jobs will replace old ones as they always have." 89 percent say you do not.
Finally tonight, the Mars rover Opportunity today sent stunning new images of Mars back to earth. The images are so detailed that scientists can see individual grains of dust in them. Opportunity landed inside a small crater over the weekend, just a few feet from the first bedrock ever seen on Mars. NASA scientists are optimistic about the prospects for the damaged rover Spirit to be returned to operation on the other side of the planet. That's our show for tonight. Thank you for being with us. Tomorrow, we'll be joined by the executive director of the National Immigration Forum Frank Sharry and for the latest on the New Hampshire primary, we'll be joined by top political reporters, our top panel of the very best in the business.
For all of us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. Anderson Cooper is next.
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