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CNN Live Sunday

It Is John Kerry's Nomination To Lose

Aired February 01, 2004 - 18:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: In the meantime, our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider and CNN political contributor, Carlos Watson, join us now for some analysis.
Good evening, gentlemen. Kind of unusual to have you down there and me up here in Washington, D.C., but rehearsals go on for primary coverage on Tuesday. Good to see both of you.

I'm wondering -- Bill, let's begin with you, our senior political analyst, how is this race shaping up? Where do you see us now?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We're at the point where we're going out across the country and John Kerry is facing a big test. We know he can win those first two primaries in small states that have very isolated electorates. They don't represent the Democratic party or certainly the larger electorate.

Now he's got to prove he can win across the country. In the south, in the big mid western industrial state like Missouri, in the southwest, Arizona. He's got to show that he has broad national appeal, that he's not just a regional, northern candidate.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Carol to that point, with two days left before the voting, right now, polls show him looking good in five of the seven states. The two states where, right now, looks like he could potentially lose are South Carolina, where they've got a native son running to some extent, in John edwards, and Oklahoma, where, interestingly enough, retired General Wesley Clark is look going.

To be clear, all of the candidates who are facing John Kerry now, the unequivocal frontrunner are hoping he doesn't win five out of seven. Because if he does, 5 out of 7, as Bill said, he can still make a strong geographic argument. I've won in the northeast, I've won in the midwest and Iowa. I've now won in the west, namely Arizona, New Mexico, et cetera. And so there is certainly some hope in other camps that they can stop Kerry from winning five out of seven.

SCHNEIDER: That's right.

LIN: Carlos, what's going through the other camps' minds? How long can some of these candidates continue to hang in there, such as Al Sharpton and Joe Lieberman?

WATSON: Some of them, frankly, are going to fight guerrilla campaigns and don't need a ton of money. Probably put Sharpton and Kucinich in that category. They haven't raised a lot of money and still have managed to stay around and could arguably stay around a lot longer.

John Edwards has said, that if I do not win in South Carolina on Tuesday then I'm out. But if he does win, he hopes to stay in longer. Wesley Clark, I think, will have trouble raising money if he doesn't win in Oklahoma. And Joe Lieberman certainly is looking for his first win, whether it's in Delaware or somewhere else.

Interestingly enough, as Bill can expand upon, Howard Dean has a very different strategy. Howard Dean, in effect, has said February 3 is interesting, but it's not the whole ball of wax.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. The idea of primaries is they're supposed to be a killing field. The notion is, you kill off dead candidates and get their bodies off the field. That's supposed to start happening this week.

The chairman of the Democratic party, Terry McAuliffe says if you haven't won a state by the end of the day, February 3, you shoul consider getting out of the race. He wants this thing shut down for the Democrats to close ranks around the frontrunner, because the record shows that the longer the race goes on, before the party decides on its candidate, the more damage is done to the party.

You know what? Howard Dean is not playing that game. He says he's not really making a serious effort. He has nothing on the air in any of the seven states. He's holding his fire and conserving his money until some states that look friendlier to him, like Wisconsin, that's not until February 17; and California and New York, they're not until March.

But he says he's going to fight this down the road and he's not going to give up until a majority of the delegates, the elected delegates, are with someone else or with him.

WATSON: Carol, there's a little...

LIN: Go ahead, Carlos.

WATSON: Carol, there's a little bit of interesting precedent for this. And again, to set the context for people, you need about 2100 -- 2, 161 to be exact, delegates in order to secure the Democratic nomination. So far, there have only been a couple dozen available in New Hampshire and Iowa. We've got almost 270 available on February 3. But what Howard Dean is saying in between February 3 and the end of the month, there are another 550.

So he's saying, don't get overly focused if you will, on February 3. And I'm going to stay and not only fight for those 550, but I'm going to fight for more than 1,000 delegates that are available, including California and New York, on March 2. And so in many ways, he's laying in wait.

And guess whose play book he's pulling from, Carol? He's pulling from a Republican, Ronald Reagan, 1976, Ronald Reagan loses the first five primaries to Gerald Ford, comes back, wins in North Carolina, and fights all the way to the convention, almost winning the nomination against an incumbent president. Howard Dean is hoping he can do something very similar and this time maybe even secure the nomination.

SCHNEIDER: Another example, Ted Kennedy tried that with Jimmy Carter in 1980, an incumbent president. Kennedy started winning the late primaries, took it all the way to the convention.

And you know what, Ronald Reagan in 1976 and Ted Kennedy in 1980 had in common, they didn't get the nomination. They couldn't do it.

LIN: Doesn't it also depend on on what John Kerry does next? I mean is this for him to lose? Because obviously, what Howard Dean needs is for John Kerry to make a major mistake out there.

WATSON: Two, two potential merging weaknesses, or existing weaknesses, and Bill may expand and add to more of these too. One, I think a big risk for John Kerry is if he, at any point, returns to the John Kerry we saw six months ago: aloof, the Washington insider, long- winded, a recent article called him lordly. If he returns to any of that, I think he becomes much more vulnerable, because then you start to say that even though he may seem like a safe candidate, he's not an exciting candidate. He's not going to get the turnout you need in a general election.

The other real risk that you've got to think about here is if there is any kind of scandal or, frankly, meltdown. We saw that in 1972 when Edmund Musky, the favorite who actually won both Iowa and New Hampshire, was seen crying or believed to be crying in the snow and although he won those first two, he ultimately lost the nomination to George McGovern. So, I think any of those two could be seen as real weaknesses.

SCHNEIDER: And I think, they're not serious risks, because John Kerry is a pro. He's been around a long time, he knows the rules, he knows how to play the game. He's been through a lot of tough elections.

LIN: That's right, 19 years in the Senate. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Carlos, Bill, we'll see you later.

WATSON: Carol, We wish you were here.

LIN: I wish I was there too. Nice, warm, sunny Atlanta. You guys have a good rehearsal for Tuesday.

SCHNEIDER: Thank you.

WATSON: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired February 1, 2004 - 18:08   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: In the meantime, our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider and CNN political contributor, Carlos Watson, join us now for some analysis.
Good evening, gentlemen. Kind of unusual to have you down there and me up here in Washington, D.C., but rehearsals go on for primary coverage on Tuesday. Good to see both of you.

I'm wondering -- Bill, let's begin with you, our senior political analyst, how is this race shaping up? Where do you see us now?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We're at the point where we're going out across the country and John Kerry is facing a big test. We know he can win those first two primaries in small states that have very isolated electorates. They don't represent the Democratic party or certainly the larger electorate.

Now he's got to prove he can win across the country. In the south, in the big mid western industrial state like Missouri, in the southwest, Arizona. He's got to show that he has broad national appeal, that he's not just a regional, northern candidate.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Carol to that point, with two days left before the voting, right now, polls show him looking good in five of the seven states. The two states where, right now, looks like he could potentially lose are South Carolina, where they've got a native son running to some extent, in John edwards, and Oklahoma, where, interestingly enough, retired General Wesley Clark is look going.

To be clear, all of the candidates who are facing John Kerry now, the unequivocal frontrunner are hoping he doesn't win five out of seven. Because if he does, 5 out of 7, as Bill said, he can still make a strong geographic argument. I've won in the northeast, I've won in the midwest and Iowa. I've now won in the west, namely Arizona, New Mexico, et cetera. And so there is certainly some hope in other camps that they can stop Kerry from winning five out of seven.

SCHNEIDER: That's right.

LIN: Carlos, what's going through the other camps' minds? How long can some of these candidates continue to hang in there, such as Al Sharpton and Joe Lieberman?

WATSON: Some of them, frankly, are going to fight guerrilla campaigns and don't need a ton of money. Probably put Sharpton and Kucinich in that category. They haven't raised a lot of money and still have managed to stay around and could arguably stay around a lot longer.

John Edwards has said, that if I do not win in South Carolina on Tuesday then I'm out. But if he does win, he hopes to stay in longer. Wesley Clark, I think, will have trouble raising money if he doesn't win in Oklahoma. And Joe Lieberman certainly is looking for his first win, whether it's in Delaware or somewhere else.

Interestingly enough, as Bill can expand upon, Howard Dean has a very different strategy. Howard Dean, in effect, has said February 3 is interesting, but it's not the whole ball of wax.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. The idea of primaries is they're supposed to be a killing field. The notion is, you kill off dead candidates and get their bodies off the field. That's supposed to start happening this week.

The chairman of the Democratic party, Terry McAuliffe says if you haven't won a state by the end of the day, February 3, you shoul consider getting out of the race. He wants this thing shut down for the Democrats to close ranks around the frontrunner, because the record shows that the longer the race goes on, before the party decides on its candidate, the more damage is done to the party.

You know what? Howard Dean is not playing that game. He says he's not really making a serious effort. He has nothing on the air in any of the seven states. He's holding his fire and conserving his money until some states that look friendlier to him, like Wisconsin, that's not until February 17; and California and New York, they're not until March.

But he says he's going to fight this down the road and he's not going to give up until a majority of the delegates, the elected delegates, are with someone else or with him.

WATSON: Carol, there's a little...

LIN: Go ahead, Carlos.

WATSON: Carol, there's a little bit of interesting precedent for this. And again, to set the context for people, you need about 2100 -- 2, 161 to be exact, delegates in order to secure the Democratic nomination. So far, there have only been a couple dozen available in New Hampshire and Iowa. We've got almost 270 available on February 3. But what Howard Dean is saying in between February 3 and the end of the month, there are another 550.

So he's saying, don't get overly focused if you will, on February 3. And I'm going to stay and not only fight for those 550, but I'm going to fight for more than 1,000 delegates that are available, including California and New York, on March 2. And so in many ways, he's laying in wait.

And guess whose play book he's pulling from, Carol? He's pulling from a Republican, Ronald Reagan, 1976, Ronald Reagan loses the first five primaries to Gerald Ford, comes back, wins in North Carolina, and fights all the way to the convention, almost winning the nomination against an incumbent president. Howard Dean is hoping he can do something very similar and this time maybe even secure the nomination.

SCHNEIDER: Another example, Ted Kennedy tried that with Jimmy Carter in 1980, an incumbent president. Kennedy started winning the late primaries, took it all the way to the convention.

And you know what, Ronald Reagan in 1976 and Ted Kennedy in 1980 had in common, they didn't get the nomination. They couldn't do it.

LIN: Doesn't it also depend on on what John Kerry does next? I mean is this for him to lose? Because obviously, what Howard Dean needs is for John Kerry to make a major mistake out there.

WATSON: Two, two potential merging weaknesses, or existing weaknesses, and Bill may expand and add to more of these too. One, I think a big risk for John Kerry is if he, at any point, returns to the John Kerry we saw six months ago: aloof, the Washington insider, long- winded, a recent article called him lordly. If he returns to any of that, I think he becomes much more vulnerable, because then you start to say that even though he may seem like a safe candidate, he's not an exciting candidate. He's not going to get the turnout you need in a general election.

The other real risk that you've got to think about here is if there is any kind of scandal or, frankly, meltdown. We saw that in 1972 when Edmund Musky, the favorite who actually won both Iowa and New Hampshire, was seen crying or believed to be crying in the snow and although he won those first two, he ultimately lost the nomination to George McGovern. So, I think any of those two could be seen as real weaknesses.

SCHNEIDER: And I think, they're not serious risks, because John Kerry is a pro. He's been around a long time, he knows the rules, he knows how to play the game. He's been through a lot of tough elections.

LIN: That's right, 19 years in the Senate. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Carlos, Bill, we'll see you later.

WATSON: Carol, We wish you were here.

LIN: I wish I was there too. Nice, warm, sunny Atlanta. You guys have a good rehearsal for Tuesday.

SCHNEIDER: Thank you.

WATSON: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com