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CNN Live At Daybreak
Handicapping the Race
Aired February 03, 2004 - 06:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We may get a clearer picture of where things stand after today's contest, so let's delve a little deeper now.
Professor Steven Taylor from American University in D.C. joins us with some analysis.
Good morning to you.
STEVEN TAYLOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: Good morning, Carol. How are you doing?
COSTELLO: Pretty good.
So, what's your best bet? Will Kerry do well? Will Edwards do well? And where will Dean and Al Sharpton end up?
TAYLOR: Well, it looks like Edwards is really pulling ahead in South Carolina. He's got a double-digit lead, which I think many would have expected. It's his home state. It's next to the state that he's represented in the Senate the past five years. And so, this might be the place where he capitalizes on some of that momentum that he got in Iowa.
Now, as far as the other six states that are having primaries and caucuses today, I don't think he's going to be as strong. As Bob just said, there is a potential for an upset by Kerry, but I don't know how strong that potential is, because Edwards seems to have a commanding lead in South Carolina.
COSTELLO: Howard Dean. He's never really recovered from the scream thing, has he?
TAYLOR: No, he really hasn't. He hasn't. I mean, of course, he was slipping in the polls before that, but that accelerated his fall. And I think opting out of these seven races -- of course, he's going to be on the ballot here, but he's not really putting much effort, other than a little bit in Arizona, but not much effort. I think that might be an error, just like Lieberman opting out of Iowa was an error that he's not recovered from.
COSTELLO: I want to talk about South Carolina, because this will be an important test of how the candidates might do in the South. Will Al Sharpton come into play? Will African-Americans vote for him instead of maybe Howard Dean or Edwards or Kerry?
TAYLOR: Well, there are some polling data that says that in this very divided race that he might have a plurality among black voters, but not a commanding plurality, and certainly not a majority. He may be a wild card in this case. I think that he's run a smart campaign, going to the churches, where he knows that the churches are going to be packed on Sunday, and getting his word out there. And he's getting a lot of press coverage.
So, he might garner some votes. I mean, this his only chance to get a significant number of votes, but as far as pulling off an upset, that doesn't look like that's about to happen. The polling data certainly doesn't say that...
COSTELLO: No, not at all.
TAYLOR: ... and neither Sharpton himself isn't saying that.
COSTELLO: Not at all. If he doesn't do well, he says he's going to stay in it. But will that likely happen? Will he pull out if he doesnt do well?
TAYLOR: No, I don't think he'll pull out, because I don't think that he expected to be the nominee. And I think his race is not so much of a race for the nomination, but a race for a place on the table at the convention. Maybe he can have some delegates where he can have some bargaining there and maybe a chance to speak in primetime during the convention. That's probably what he's hoping for.
COSTELLO: All right, Steven Taylor from American University talking to us live from D.C. this morning. We appreciate it.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired February 3, 2004 - 06:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We may get a clearer picture of where things stand after today's contest, so let's delve a little deeper now.
Professor Steven Taylor from American University in D.C. joins us with some analysis.
Good morning to you.
STEVEN TAYLOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: Good morning, Carol. How are you doing?
COSTELLO: Pretty good.
So, what's your best bet? Will Kerry do well? Will Edwards do well? And where will Dean and Al Sharpton end up?
TAYLOR: Well, it looks like Edwards is really pulling ahead in South Carolina. He's got a double-digit lead, which I think many would have expected. It's his home state. It's next to the state that he's represented in the Senate the past five years. And so, this might be the place where he capitalizes on some of that momentum that he got in Iowa.
Now, as far as the other six states that are having primaries and caucuses today, I don't think he's going to be as strong. As Bob just said, there is a potential for an upset by Kerry, but I don't know how strong that potential is, because Edwards seems to have a commanding lead in South Carolina.
COSTELLO: Howard Dean. He's never really recovered from the scream thing, has he?
TAYLOR: No, he really hasn't. He hasn't. I mean, of course, he was slipping in the polls before that, but that accelerated his fall. And I think opting out of these seven races -- of course, he's going to be on the ballot here, but he's not really putting much effort, other than a little bit in Arizona, but not much effort. I think that might be an error, just like Lieberman opting out of Iowa was an error that he's not recovered from.
COSTELLO: I want to talk about South Carolina, because this will be an important test of how the candidates might do in the South. Will Al Sharpton come into play? Will African-Americans vote for him instead of maybe Howard Dean or Edwards or Kerry?
TAYLOR: Well, there are some polling data that says that in this very divided race that he might have a plurality among black voters, but not a commanding plurality, and certainly not a majority. He may be a wild card in this case. I think that he's run a smart campaign, going to the churches, where he knows that the churches are going to be packed on Sunday, and getting his word out there. And he's getting a lot of press coverage.
So, he might garner some votes. I mean, this his only chance to get a significant number of votes, but as far as pulling off an upset, that doesn't look like that's about to happen. The polling data certainly doesn't say that...
COSTELLO: No, not at all.
TAYLOR: ... and neither Sharpton himself isn't saying that.
COSTELLO: Not at all. If he doesn't do well, he says he's going to stay in it. But will that likely happen? Will he pull out if he doesnt do well?
TAYLOR: No, I don't think he'll pull out, because I don't think that he expected to be the nominee. And I think his race is not so much of a race for the nomination, but a race for a place on the table at the convention. Maybe he can have some delegates where he can have some bargaining there and maybe a chance to speak in primetime during the convention. That's probably what he's hoping for.
COSTELLO: All right, Steven Taylor from American University talking to us live from D.C. this morning. We appreciate it.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
