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American Morning

During Next Week, Five More States Will Hold Presidential Contests

Aired February 04, 2004 - 08:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Politics starts us off this hour. During the next week, five more states will hold their presidential contests on the Democratic side. National front runner John Kerry promising to compete in every state, again, after a string of wins last night. He won five of the seven up for grabs -- Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota and the night's biggest delegate prize, the State of Missouri, vacated by Dick Gephardt two weeks ago.
Here is part of his address last night to supporters in Seattle.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For the second time in a few days, a New England patriot has won on the road. I pledge to you tonight I have only just begun to fight.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Kerry's main rival for the nomination may be Senator John Edwards. He won the South Carolina primary by 15 points last night. In Oklahoma, Wesley Clark is claiming victory. Just a few hundred votes ahead of Edwards. CNN now waiting until the votes are certified before that call can be made in Oklahoma.

Howard Dean finished no better than third in a contest yesterday. He's been pouring resources into Michigan, Washington and Maine, which will vote this weekend.

Senator Joseph Lieberman is no longer, the latest candidate to drop out last night. He said the judgment of the voters is now clear.

From D.C. this morning to talk more about the results from last night and what they may mean now, our political analyst, "L.A. Times" writer Ron Brownstein -- Ron, good morning to you.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: How are you?

BROWNSTEIN: Oh, recent from last night.

HEMMER: Yes, well, listen, I know you had a late night last night. We want to talk about two of your pieces you wrote this week.

Number one, the one out yesterday in the "L.A. Times." Do you believe John Kerry now is now going to take the assault from not just Howard Dean, but John Edwards and Wesley Clark? And, if so, how does he fare?

BROWNSTEIN: That is the real question. Both Clark and Edwards have been, I think, remarkably slow in defining contrasts with John Kerry since he became the front runner. Both of them had predicated their campaigns on running against Howard Dean and they really hadn't made the mid course adjustment to the fact that it was now Kerry who was the leader.

Edwards began in the last few days in South Carolina, and even more pointedly last night on CNN, on "Larry King," to begin to define those differences. Edwards said the key differences were his background, a more modest upbringing; and his views on trade, his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Wesley Clark, I think, is beginning to define that difference also, as an outsider, as someone who isn't part of Washington. He sounded like Howard Dean when he came on "Larry King" at midnight, saying he voted against -- he didn't vote for the war, he didn't vote for no child left behind, he didn't vote for the Patriot Act.

So both of them are beginning to define that difference. They don't have a lot of time to do it.

HEMMER: Listen, some of this is going to go to negative campaigning. That's the label that's going to be put on it. One of the arguments in the debates that continues to surface, and Jeff Greenfield has talked about this a lot, how do you define negative campaigning when you're trying to line yourself up against a guy you want to beat, essentially?

BROWNSTEIN: I don't define it as negative campaigning. I mean I don't think there's anything wrong with telling the voters what the differences are between the leading contenders. You can't expect average voters to be sitting there scouring the "Congressional Quarterly" on their own to know that John Kerry voted for NAFTA and John Edwards says he opposes it. There's really no reason not to do that.

You could say that no front runner has ever had an easier two weeks than John Kerry in the two weeks between Iowa and yesterday. Other than Howard Dean, no one made a consistent argument against him. And you saw what happens when candidates fail to do that. The momentum that builds behind the front runner will carry him through, in most places, if voters are not given a reason to change their direction, and that's what we saw.

HEMMER: You know, Ron, you may not call it negative campaigning, but voters in Iowa saw it that way, when Dick Gephardt started putting ads out there...

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

HEMMER: ... and it really doomed his candidacy. You have to ride this line.

BROWNSTEIN: That was pretty savage, Bill. I mean there's a lot of room between what Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean did and simply failing to draw distinctions. I think the -- and, look, the lesson, I think, is pretty clear, though, as I say, from the last two weeks. If Clark and Edwards cannot draw some sharper distinctions, they may be able to win a state here or there, but they're not going to seriously change the dynamic of this race.

Edwards, I think, is going to look back at yesterday with a kind of bittersweet feeling. I mean he did very well. He won South Carolina by 15 points. He appeared to lose Oklahoma by less than 1,500 votes. And he had the opportunity to spend more time there. His staff played it very conservatively. They were playing not to lose, I think, even more than to win. They just wanted to make sure they had South Carolina in the bag.

It's just not enough to be able to do that. I mean they're going to be writing off this weekend, focusing on next Tuesday. Sooner or later you've got to be able to do more than simply pick a state here or there and win.

HEMMER: Got it.

Hey, Ron, thank you.

Your piece today in the "L.A. Times" points out the strengths and weaknesses of John Kerry. We'll talk about that a bit later, OK? Come on back anytime.

BROWNSTEIN: All right.

Thank you.

All right.

HEMMER: Ron Brownstein in D.C.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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Aired February 4, 2004 - 08:02   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Politics starts us off this hour. During the next week, five more states will hold their presidential contests on the Democratic side. National front runner John Kerry promising to compete in every state, again, after a string of wins last night. He won five of the seven up for grabs -- Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota and the night's biggest delegate prize, the State of Missouri, vacated by Dick Gephardt two weeks ago.
Here is part of his address last night to supporters in Seattle.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For the second time in a few days, a New England patriot has won on the road. I pledge to you tonight I have only just begun to fight.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Kerry's main rival for the nomination may be Senator John Edwards. He won the South Carolina primary by 15 points last night. In Oklahoma, Wesley Clark is claiming victory. Just a few hundred votes ahead of Edwards. CNN now waiting until the votes are certified before that call can be made in Oklahoma.

Howard Dean finished no better than third in a contest yesterday. He's been pouring resources into Michigan, Washington and Maine, which will vote this weekend.

Senator Joseph Lieberman is no longer, the latest candidate to drop out last night. He said the judgment of the voters is now clear.

From D.C. this morning to talk more about the results from last night and what they may mean now, our political analyst, "L.A. Times" writer Ron Brownstein -- Ron, good morning to you.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: How are you?

BROWNSTEIN: Oh, recent from last night.

HEMMER: Yes, well, listen, I know you had a late night last night. We want to talk about two of your pieces you wrote this week.

Number one, the one out yesterday in the "L.A. Times." Do you believe John Kerry now is now going to take the assault from not just Howard Dean, but John Edwards and Wesley Clark? And, if so, how does he fare?

BROWNSTEIN: That is the real question. Both Clark and Edwards have been, I think, remarkably slow in defining contrasts with John Kerry since he became the front runner. Both of them had predicated their campaigns on running against Howard Dean and they really hadn't made the mid course adjustment to the fact that it was now Kerry who was the leader.

Edwards began in the last few days in South Carolina, and even more pointedly last night on CNN, on "Larry King," to begin to define those differences. Edwards said the key differences were his background, a more modest upbringing; and his views on trade, his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Wesley Clark, I think, is beginning to define that difference also, as an outsider, as someone who isn't part of Washington. He sounded like Howard Dean when he came on "Larry King" at midnight, saying he voted against -- he didn't vote for the war, he didn't vote for no child left behind, he didn't vote for the Patriot Act.

So both of them are beginning to define that difference. They don't have a lot of time to do it.

HEMMER: Listen, some of this is going to go to negative campaigning. That's the label that's going to be put on it. One of the arguments in the debates that continues to surface, and Jeff Greenfield has talked about this a lot, how do you define negative campaigning when you're trying to line yourself up against a guy you want to beat, essentially?

BROWNSTEIN: I don't define it as negative campaigning. I mean I don't think there's anything wrong with telling the voters what the differences are between the leading contenders. You can't expect average voters to be sitting there scouring the "Congressional Quarterly" on their own to know that John Kerry voted for NAFTA and John Edwards says he opposes it. There's really no reason not to do that.

You could say that no front runner has ever had an easier two weeks than John Kerry in the two weeks between Iowa and yesterday. Other than Howard Dean, no one made a consistent argument against him. And you saw what happens when candidates fail to do that. The momentum that builds behind the front runner will carry him through, in most places, if voters are not given a reason to change their direction, and that's what we saw.

HEMMER: You know, Ron, you may not call it negative campaigning, but voters in Iowa saw it that way, when Dick Gephardt started putting ads out there...

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

HEMMER: ... and it really doomed his candidacy. You have to ride this line.

BROWNSTEIN: That was pretty savage, Bill. I mean there's a lot of room between what Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean did and simply failing to draw distinctions. I think the -- and, look, the lesson, I think, is pretty clear, though, as I say, from the last two weeks. If Clark and Edwards cannot draw some sharper distinctions, they may be able to win a state here or there, but they're not going to seriously change the dynamic of this race.

Edwards, I think, is going to look back at yesterday with a kind of bittersweet feeling. I mean he did very well. He won South Carolina by 15 points. He appeared to lose Oklahoma by less than 1,500 votes. And he had the opportunity to spend more time there. His staff played it very conservatively. They were playing not to lose, I think, even more than to win. They just wanted to make sure they had South Carolina in the bag.

It's just not enough to be able to do that. I mean they're going to be writing off this weekend, focusing on next Tuesday. Sooner or later you've got to be able to do more than simply pick a state here or there and win.

HEMMER: Got it.

Hey, Ron, thank you.

Your piece today in the "L.A. Times" points out the strengths and weaknesses of John Kerry. We'll talk about that a bit later, OK? Come on back anytime.

BROWNSTEIN: All right.

Thank you.

All right.

HEMMER: Ron Brownstein in D.C.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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