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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Larry Sabato

Aired February 08, 2004 - 16:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDERICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Well let's talk more about the 2004 presidential campaign. Joining us now from Charlottesville, Virginia is Larry Sabato he directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Good to see you Larry.
LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Good afternoon.

WHITFIELD: Well, of course a sitting president always gets a lot of exposure, but when you're a leading Democratic front-runner for the nomination you're likely to get a lot of exposure, the more primaries and caucuses you win. So in the case of John Kerry, these days he can save a little money. Can't he? He doesn't have to invest a lot in television ads?

SABATO: That's right, Fredricka. The free media, that is you, the news media, actually is worth a lot more than paid media. The television ads that you see. Why? Because the people sitting at home assign a certain degree of credibility to news coverage. It's supposed to be internally checked and there's some independent editorial content.

Whereas with TV ads, you know you're being sold something. The candidates are trying to sell you. So you're right. John Kerry has a big advantage right now because he's the front-runner, he's the heavy favorite for the nomination and he's going to get the good and the bad that comes with being the front-runner.

WHITFIELD: All right, let's talk a little about strategy right now with the Tennessee and Virginia primaries this Tuesday, John Kerry spending a lot of time in Virginia today. And overall, a lot in the south lately because he feels like he needs to prove himself in front of southern candidates. How important are these next two races for him particularly, given that he didn't do well in South Carolina or Oklahoma?

SABATO: I think John Kerry and his campaign want to prove that he can win "southern" states. And he will as the front-runner. He'll probably win something on Tuesday. Virginia, he's leading in clearly. Tennessee, he's been ahead in at least some polls. You know, having said that, this is all kind of silly.

The people who vote Democratic primaries in the south are much like the people who vote Democratic primaries in the north. They're liberal; they're not representative of the general electorate. So just because John Kerry wins Virginia or Tennessee in a primary doesn't say anything about November 2nd. WHITFIELD: All right, Howard Dean. Talking about strategy, he's already thinking about nine days ahead. February 17th primary in Wisconsin, whose strategy is this? Already it's proven not to work for him in Iowa and New Hampshire, by jumping ahead of the upcoming primary or caucus.

SABATO: Well Fredricka, I think candidates pretty much go through what all of us do when a dear loved one passes away. You know, there are nine stages of grief; you know you have anger and acceptance, all the rest. And that's what Howard Dean is going through. Eventually, he'll come to the logical conclusion, which is that he has to get out.

WHITFIELD: All right, John Edwards, Wes Clark, still certainly factors. But if they don't do well in Tuesday's primaries, how seriously need they start considering either jumping out or cozying up to whoever the leading candidate is by next week?

SABATO: Remember under the constitution, they can run all the way to the convention or longer, if they want to.

WHITFIELD: But it's awfully costly.

SABATO: That is exactly right.

WHITFIELD: And some of the Democratic Party would say that would only splinter the chances, once it comes down to the official race in November?

SABATO: Sure, I think it's foolish if they continue. They have the right to do it, but it's foolish if they continue. Look, if John Edwards can't carry the state directly to the north of North Carolina, the state he represents, and the state to the west, Tennessee, he needs to get out. Wesley Clark is doing even more poorly than John Edwards. If he can't carry other southern states, claiming he's from Arkansas, he should get out. That's obvious and eventually, it will be obvious even to the candidates.

WHITFIELD: And I don't mean to leave Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich out, because they are still running, eve be though they haven't show strong showings in a majority races.

SABATO: Yes, no you're right to include them. And remember people who lose still contribute something to a campaign. Maybe it's an idea; maybe they bring additional people in. But it's right to include them and so I'm glad you did.

WHITFIELD: And in fact isn't it Al Sharpton who said he wins no matter what, and he's not talking about delegate, but he is encouraging the other Democratic candidates to talk about issues that perhaps he wouldn't have otherwise, had he not been in the race.

SABATO: I think that part is accurate. It's also true that these candidates win because they get to go on the speaker's circuit as a presidential candidate and draw big fees.

WHITFIELD: All right, Larry Sabato thanks very much. Always good to see you.

SABATO: Thanks a lot Fredricka.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 8, 2004 - 16:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDERICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Well let's talk more about the 2004 presidential campaign. Joining us now from Charlottesville, Virginia is Larry Sabato he directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Good to see you Larry.
LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Good afternoon.

WHITFIELD: Well, of course a sitting president always gets a lot of exposure, but when you're a leading Democratic front-runner for the nomination you're likely to get a lot of exposure, the more primaries and caucuses you win. So in the case of John Kerry, these days he can save a little money. Can't he? He doesn't have to invest a lot in television ads?

SABATO: That's right, Fredricka. The free media, that is you, the news media, actually is worth a lot more than paid media. The television ads that you see. Why? Because the people sitting at home assign a certain degree of credibility to news coverage. It's supposed to be internally checked and there's some independent editorial content.

Whereas with TV ads, you know you're being sold something. The candidates are trying to sell you. So you're right. John Kerry has a big advantage right now because he's the front-runner, he's the heavy favorite for the nomination and he's going to get the good and the bad that comes with being the front-runner.

WHITFIELD: All right, let's talk a little about strategy right now with the Tennessee and Virginia primaries this Tuesday, John Kerry spending a lot of time in Virginia today. And overall, a lot in the south lately because he feels like he needs to prove himself in front of southern candidates. How important are these next two races for him particularly, given that he didn't do well in South Carolina or Oklahoma?

SABATO: I think John Kerry and his campaign want to prove that he can win "southern" states. And he will as the front-runner. He'll probably win something on Tuesday. Virginia, he's leading in clearly. Tennessee, he's been ahead in at least some polls. You know, having said that, this is all kind of silly.

The people who vote Democratic primaries in the south are much like the people who vote Democratic primaries in the north. They're liberal; they're not representative of the general electorate. So just because John Kerry wins Virginia or Tennessee in a primary doesn't say anything about November 2nd. WHITFIELD: All right, Howard Dean. Talking about strategy, he's already thinking about nine days ahead. February 17th primary in Wisconsin, whose strategy is this? Already it's proven not to work for him in Iowa and New Hampshire, by jumping ahead of the upcoming primary or caucus.

SABATO: Well Fredricka, I think candidates pretty much go through what all of us do when a dear loved one passes away. You know, there are nine stages of grief; you know you have anger and acceptance, all the rest. And that's what Howard Dean is going through. Eventually, he'll come to the logical conclusion, which is that he has to get out.

WHITFIELD: All right, John Edwards, Wes Clark, still certainly factors. But if they don't do well in Tuesday's primaries, how seriously need they start considering either jumping out or cozying up to whoever the leading candidate is by next week?

SABATO: Remember under the constitution, they can run all the way to the convention or longer, if they want to.

WHITFIELD: But it's awfully costly.

SABATO: That is exactly right.

WHITFIELD: And some of the Democratic Party would say that would only splinter the chances, once it comes down to the official race in November?

SABATO: Sure, I think it's foolish if they continue. They have the right to do it, but it's foolish if they continue. Look, if John Edwards can't carry the state directly to the north of North Carolina, the state he represents, and the state to the west, Tennessee, he needs to get out. Wesley Clark is doing even more poorly than John Edwards. If he can't carry other southern states, claiming he's from Arkansas, he should get out. That's obvious and eventually, it will be obvious even to the candidates.

WHITFIELD: And I don't mean to leave Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich out, because they are still running, eve be though they haven't show strong showings in a majority races.

SABATO: Yes, no you're right to include them. And remember people who lose still contribute something to a campaign. Maybe it's an idea; maybe they bring additional people in. But it's right to include them and so I'm glad you did.

WHITFIELD: And in fact isn't it Al Sharpton who said he wins no matter what, and he's not talking about delegate, but he is encouraging the other Democratic candidates to talk about issues that perhaps he wouldn't have otherwise, had he not been in the race.

SABATO: I think that part is accurate. It's also true that these candidates win because they get to go on the speaker's circuit as a presidential candidate and draw big fees.

WHITFIELD: All right, Larry Sabato thanks very much. Always good to see you.

SABATO: Thanks a lot Fredricka.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com