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American Morning
Interview With William Cohen
Aired February 13, 2004 - 08:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: New questions being raised this morning about the U.S. plan to transfer power to Iraq by the end of June. A United Nations spokesman says it is unlikely that elections could be held before then.
Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf is live for us this morning from the Iraqi capital -- hey, Jane, good morning.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Now, what's emerging is essentially that this June 30 target, which the U.S. has agreed to transfer power, seems to still be holding so far. The question is who are they going to transfer power to?
Now Lakhdar Brahimi, who is a senior U.N. troubleshooter, has just spoken to reporters. He's heading off after a week long visit here in which he spoke to hundreds of Iraqis, including a very influential Shia cleric who called tens of thousands of people into the streets to demand direct elections.
Now, after all of these talks, Mr. Brahimi said that they had reached some sort of consensus.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LAKHDAR BRAHIMI, U.N. ENVOY: What I think we have agreed to with everybody, what I think everybody has agreed to is that elections are terribly important, but holding reasonably credible elections is also extremely important and that the date of the elections have got to be consistent with this requirement.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ARRAF: Now, that reasonably credible elections is the key. And what that essentially means is it's going to take a lot longer than June 30 to organize elections and make sure it's safe enough for people to actually go out and vote -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf for us this morning from Baghdad.
Jane, thanks.
The debate over Iraq's future comes at the end of a particularly violent week. At least 100 Iraqis were killed in suicide bombings.
Joining us to consider the still dangerous -- what's still dangerous there is former Defense Secretary William Cohen.
He is in our Washington bureau this morning.
Nice to see you, Secretary Cohen.
WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Thanks for being with us.
Let's talk a little bit about civil war, because there are some big concerns about civil war, specifically coming this morning information from that U.N. special envoy, who has taken steps to warn Iraqi people about the risks of civil war.
One, what can he do besides warning the Iraqi people? And now prevalent do you think those risks really are?
COHEN: Well, I think the risks are significant. If you take the memo that was discovered by Mr. Zarqawi in which there are plans under way to try and start a civil war, turning the Shia against the Sunnis and against the Kurds and basically causing chaos, that is a real risk posed to all of the Iraqi people.
And so the question becomes is there a center in the Iraqi population that understands that the extreme groups are determined to cause this kind of chaos so that you have basically anarchy prevailing? If they can develop a political consensus to try and now work with the coalition forces and with the Ayatollah Sistani and others to establish some kind of a coherent process whereby the Iraqi people can take over the governing of the country, still with an international military presence to provide the security. That's the best hope that the Iraqi people can have for the future. And if they fail to participate and try to isolate and inform on the individuals who are planning these -- planting these bombs, then they face a future which is quite dark.
O'BRIEN: As we just heard from Jane Arraf, after meeting, in fact, with the Shiite leader, the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, the U.N. envoy said that he was in a hundred percent agreement about the need for elections. But, of course, as Jane pointed out, at issue is the actual wording about a time line.
What kind of effect do you think what he has said will have on that June 30 handover?
COHEN: Well, there's a bit of Delphic ambiguity about Mr. Brahimi's statements. But clearly what he is saying is he believes that Sistani is correct in calling for direct elections, but not just yet, that it's not possible to have direct elections yet. That is consistent with the U.S. position. But the problem is that the United States is determined to move forward by the June 30 deadline to hand over authority, political authority, to some governing authorities.
So the question becomes if it's not going to be the caucuses that the United States prefers at this point, what will it be? And I think you'll see a caucus by another name. There'll be some sort of an agreement in which it'll be an interim government with elections held by the end of the year. That way it would satisfy Sistani as well as the Americans.
O'BRIEN: What Brahimi said was the time has to be right. There need to be the right technical, security and political conditions. Those all need to be in place.
So what kind of a time line -- I mean, that's not a short order. That's sort of the $64,000 linchpin question to all of this.
What kind of a time line can be in place to meet the deadline that he has sort of loosely set up by the end of the year? Can that happen?
COHEN: Well, they're going to have to really intensify the involvement on the part of the United Nations and other institutions as such to help develop the kind of process, the voting records -- the security will be critical in this regard. You can't have free and open elections if you don't a secure environment. So security, having voting records, having the mechanism whereby people can go to the polls and have those votes counted accurately and fairly, all of that can be done. But it's going to require an intensive effort, which means you have to develop that consensus within the Iraq community that they really want this.
If they're, if they're not prepared to solidify behind this process, then it's very unlikely that you'll reach that deadline.
O'BRIEN: Former Defense Secretary William Cohen joining us this morning; also the chairman and CEO of The Cohen Group, with us.
As for the latest violence in Iraq, U.S. soldier killed, two others were injured by a bomb blast late yesterday on the western edge of Baghdad. Five hundred and forty U.S. troops have been killed in the war in Iraq.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 13, 2004 - 08:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: New questions being raised this morning about the U.S. plan to transfer power to Iraq by the end of June. A United Nations spokesman says it is unlikely that elections could be held before then.
Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf is live for us this morning from the Iraqi capital -- hey, Jane, good morning.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Now, what's emerging is essentially that this June 30 target, which the U.S. has agreed to transfer power, seems to still be holding so far. The question is who are they going to transfer power to?
Now Lakhdar Brahimi, who is a senior U.N. troubleshooter, has just spoken to reporters. He's heading off after a week long visit here in which he spoke to hundreds of Iraqis, including a very influential Shia cleric who called tens of thousands of people into the streets to demand direct elections.
Now, after all of these talks, Mr. Brahimi said that they had reached some sort of consensus.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LAKHDAR BRAHIMI, U.N. ENVOY: What I think we have agreed to with everybody, what I think everybody has agreed to is that elections are terribly important, but holding reasonably credible elections is also extremely important and that the date of the elections have got to be consistent with this requirement.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ARRAF: Now, that reasonably credible elections is the key. And what that essentially means is it's going to take a lot longer than June 30 to organize elections and make sure it's safe enough for people to actually go out and vote -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf for us this morning from Baghdad.
Jane, thanks.
The debate over Iraq's future comes at the end of a particularly violent week. At least 100 Iraqis were killed in suicide bombings.
Joining us to consider the still dangerous -- what's still dangerous there is former Defense Secretary William Cohen.
He is in our Washington bureau this morning.
Nice to see you, Secretary Cohen.
WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Thanks for being with us.
Let's talk a little bit about civil war, because there are some big concerns about civil war, specifically coming this morning information from that U.N. special envoy, who has taken steps to warn Iraqi people about the risks of civil war.
One, what can he do besides warning the Iraqi people? And now prevalent do you think those risks really are?
COHEN: Well, I think the risks are significant. If you take the memo that was discovered by Mr. Zarqawi in which there are plans under way to try and start a civil war, turning the Shia against the Sunnis and against the Kurds and basically causing chaos, that is a real risk posed to all of the Iraqi people.
And so the question becomes is there a center in the Iraqi population that understands that the extreme groups are determined to cause this kind of chaos so that you have basically anarchy prevailing? If they can develop a political consensus to try and now work with the coalition forces and with the Ayatollah Sistani and others to establish some kind of a coherent process whereby the Iraqi people can take over the governing of the country, still with an international military presence to provide the security. That's the best hope that the Iraqi people can have for the future. And if they fail to participate and try to isolate and inform on the individuals who are planning these -- planting these bombs, then they face a future which is quite dark.
O'BRIEN: As we just heard from Jane Arraf, after meeting, in fact, with the Shiite leader, the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, the U.N. envoy said that he was in a hundred percent agreement about the need for elections. But, of course, as Jane pointed out, at issue is the actual wording about a time line.
What kind of effect do you think what he has said will have on that June 30 handover?
COHEN: Well, there's a bit of Delphic ambiguity about Mr. Brahimi's statements. But clearly what he is saying is he believes that Sistani is correct in calling for direct elections, but not just yet, that it's not possible to have direct elections yet. That is consistent with the U.S. position. But the problem is that the United States is determined to move forward by the June 30 deadline to hand over authority, political authority, to some governing authorities.
So the question becomes if it's not going to be the caucuses that the United States prefers at this point, what will it be? And I think you'll see a caucus by another name. There'll be some sort of an agreement in which it'll be an interim government with elections held by the end of the year. That way it would satisfy Sistani as well as the Americans.
O'BRIEN: What Brahimi said was the time has to be right. There need to be the right technical, security and political conditions. Those all need to be in place.
So what kind of a time line -- I mean, that's not a short order. That's sort of the $64,000 linchpin question to all of this.
What kind of a time line can be in place to meet the deadline that he has sort of loosely set up by the end of the year? Can that happen?
COHEN: Well, they're going to have to really intensify the involvement on the part of the United Nations and other institutions as such to help develop the kind of process, the voting records -- the security will be critical in this regard. You can't have free and open elections if you don't a secure environment. So security, having voting records, having the mechanism whereby people can go to the polls and have those votes counted accurately and fairly, all of that can be done. But it's going to require an intensive effort, which means you have to develop that consensus within the Iraq community that they really want this.
If they're, if they're not prepared to solidify behind this process, then it's very unlikely that you'll reach that deadline.
O'BRIEN: Former Defense Secretary William Cohen joining us this morning; also the chairman and CEO of The Cohen Group, with us.
As for the latest violence in Iraq, U.S. soldier killed, two others were injured by a bomb blast late yesterday on the western edge of Baghdad. Five hundred and forty U.S. troops have been killed in the war in Iraq.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
