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American Morning

Do Early Clashes Indicate Long, Nasty Campaign?

Aired February 19, 2004 - 08:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With the Democratic presidential field narrowed to just a pair of top contenders, Republican are fighting back early against attacks on the president. Do the early clashes indicate a long, nasty campaign yet to come? Here to discuss this morning is Democratic consultant Victor Camber, also Clifford May, former communications director for the Republican National Committee, Kamber and May.
Good morning, gentlemen. How are you guys?

Excellent. Let's get right to it. Victor, let's start with you. There's a school of thought that says Howard Dean will now endorse John Kerry, the front-runner, and there's another school of thought that says no, actually maybe he likes John Edwards more, and he'll go ahead and do that. Where do you think Howard Dean throws his support, if he does at all, and what do you think the impact would be of that?

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Well, I think we have learned up until know that endorsements while are great news vehicles and important for that news cycle, they don't deliver votes. I am not sure what Howard Dean will do in terms of endorsement. He has, unlike most of the other candidates this cycle, he has created somewhat of a movement, as opposed to just a candidacy. There are people who do care about what he's done. He is going to try to keep that movement alive,and Internet base alive, primarily, I think, committed to defeating George Bush. I think he'll probably wait and see and then line up solidly behind the Democratic nominee.

O'BRIEN: Three months ago, Clifford, nobody predicted dean would be where he is today, which is essentially on it of the race, even though his name still is on the ballot. When you look big picture, what do you think the lessons to be learned from the Dean campaign are?

CLIFF MAY, FMR. RNC COMM. DIR.: It's a good question, it's a hard question. One is, on a political basis, don't peak too soon. That's probably what happened to him. And second, when you are the front-runner, watch every step you make, because it's easy to stumble, which is also what happened. Both Victor and I thought that Dean had the nomination wound up, except that he could mess it up for himself. It was his to lose, and he did lose it.

But he's had an impact on the race, I think, in two profound ways. One, he gives new meaning to the term angry, white male. He set the tone for this race, saying, just expressing this anger the Democrats have towards Bush, and also on the Democratic base on the left towards the war, and in terms of fund-raising, he did something Democrats haven't done before -- he raised small money. People think the Democratic Party raises more small money. In fact, it's the Republican Party that raises more money in $25 and $100 bits, but Dean was able to do it in a way other Democrats haven't. Can others take over those methods? I don't know.

O'BRIEN: Victor, do you agree with that, that the impact on the race of Howard Dean is, one, that he represented angry white males, and two, that was able to raise money on the Internet.

KAMBER: Well, he clearly on the second, he clearly learned a new method of fund-raising, and it will be with us from now on. Both Republicans and Democrats will emulate that whole process, or try to, on the fund-raising. You know, angry white males, he represented a frustration in America that many were unwilling to tackle. He became the voice of the frustrated white male, white female, black male, black female, Hispanic, it didn't matter. There's a lot of anger at Bush and the way he's run this country and this administration. And so I think Howard Dean articulated that and, frankly, moved many Democrats to that position.

I think the message we heard Tuesday night from John Edwards and John Kerry in many ways was a Howard Dean message, softer said, but it was a Howard Dean message.

MAY: I was just going to say, no question. I mean, imitation is the sincerest form of politics. And what you have seen is particularly John Kerry imitating Howard Dean, and more moderate Democrats, particularly on issues like war and peace, such as Dick Gephardt, such as Joe Lieberman, have been cast off to the side. Interestingly enough, if this effort doesn't go anywhere, it is Hillary Clinton who represents moderate Democrats on national security issues, and she will pick up the flag next time if John Kerry falters.

O'BRIEN: Victor, how nasty do you think this race is going to get?

KAMBER: It will be the nastiest race we have ever seen until the next one, and that's always the case.

O'BRIEN: Really?

KAMBER: Well, only in the fact that you've got more radio talk shows, more cable television, more news cycles, more looking at every facet of a person's life. Ironically, this cycle, we really have philosophic differences between the two candidates. So you could spend a great deal of time on issues, whether it be jobs, whether it be infrastructure, education, health care, terrorism -- they're serious issues, but given the nature of how much time will be spent in the news cycles, they're going to look for everything. So these will be the toughest, nastiest races until the next cycle.

MAY: I was just going to say, you have wonder how far it can go and how bad it can get. I mean, we've already had, and it's only February, Democrats saying that President Bush was AWOL, that he betrayed the country, that he's a deserter.

KAMBER: When have you ever heard deserter? Let's not go that far.

MAY: Well, I think we have heard that from people. What did Michael Moore say? It was pretty close to that, wasn't it? We have heard that from the Democrats. And I think that's look betrayal is pretty bad, too. That means you are a traitor. I mean, I think that's way over the line.

President Bush said in the last election he wanted to change the tone. I think he was sincere about that, and you haven't heard this kind of thing from him. But I think he's going to be pushed in this direction.

KAMBER: Wait. Wait. Three years of changing the tone of questioning American's patriotism.

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: We are out of time, which clearly signals to me since you all keep talking as I'm talking, we have to continue this discussion another time. We'll get back to you. Just how nasty it will be, because I think it's something we're going to be talking about for a long time to come as we head into this election. Thanks, guys, as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 19, 2004 - 08:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With the Democratic presidential field narrowed to just a pair of top contenders, Republican are fighting back early against attacks on the president. Do the early clashes indicate a long, nasty campaign yet to come? Here to discuss this morning is Democratic consultant Victor Camber, also Clifford May, former communications director for the Republican National Committee, Kamber and May.
Good morning, gentlemen. How are you guys?

Excellent. Let's get right to it. Victor, let's start with you. There's a school of thought that says Howard Dean will now endorse John Kerry, the front-runner, and there's another school of thought that says no, actually maybe he likes John Edwards more, and he'll go ahead and do that. Where do you think Howard Dean throws his support, if he does at all, and what do you think the impact would be of that?

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Well, I think we have learned up until know that endorsements while are great news vehicles and important for that news cycle, they don't deliver votes. I am not sure what Howard Dean will do in terms of endorsement. He has, unlike most of the other candidates this cycle, he has created somewhat of a movement, as opposed to just a candidacy. There are people who do care about what he's done. He is going to try to keep that movement alive,and Internet base alive, primarily, I think, committed to defeating George Bush. I think he'll probably wait and see and then line up solidly behind the Democratic nominee.

O'BRIEN: Three months ago, Clifford, nobody predicted dean would be where he is today, which is essentially on it of the race, even though his name still is on the ballot. When you look big picture, what do you think the lessons to be learned from the Dean campaign are?

CLIFF MAY, FMR. RNC COMM. DIR.: It's a good question, it's a hard question. One is, on a political basis, don't peak too soon. That's probably what happened to him. And second, when you are the front-runner, watch every step you make, because it's easy to stumble, which is also what happened. Both Victor and I thought that Dean had the nomination wound up, except that he could mess it up for himself. It was his to lose, and he did lose it.

But he's had an impact on the race, I think, in two profound ways. One, he gives new meaning to the term angry, white male. He set the tone for this race, saying, just expressing this anger the Democrats have towards Bush, and also on the Democratic base on the left towards the war, and in terms of fund-raising, he did something Democrats haven't done before -- he raised small money. People think the Democratic Party raises more small money. In fact, it's the Republican Party that raises more money in $25 and $100 bits, but Dean was able to do it in a way other Democrats haven't. Can others take over those methods? I don't know.

O'BRIEN: Victor, do you agree with that, that the impact on the race of Howard Dean is, one, that he represented angry white males, and two, that was able to raise money on the Internet.

KAMBER: Well, he clearly on the second, he clearly learned a new method of fund-raising, and it will be with us from now on. Both Republicans and Democrats will emulate that whole process, or try to, on the fund-raising. You know, angry white males, he represented a frustration in America that many were unwilling to tackle. He became the voice of the frustrated white male, white female, black male, black female, Hispanic, it didn't matter. There's a lot of anger at Bush and the way he's run this country and this administration. And so I think Howard Dean articulated that and, frankly, moved many Democrats to that position.

I think the message we heard Tuesday night from John Edwards and John Kerry in many ways was a Howard Dean message, softer said, but it was a Howard Dean message.

MAY: I was just going to say, no question. I mean, imitation is the sincerest form of politics. And what you have seen is particularly John Kerry imitating Howard Dean, and more moderate Democrats, particularly on issues like war and peace, such as Dick Gephardt, such as Joe Lieberman, have been cast off to the side. Interestingly enough, if this effort doesn't go anywhere, it is Hillary Clinton who represents moderate Democrats on national security issues, and she will pick up the flag next time if John Kerry falters.

O'BRIEN: Victor, how nasty do you think this race is going to get?

KAMBER: It will be the nastiest race we have ever seen until the next one, and that's always the case.

O'BRIEN: Really?

KAMBER: Well, only in the fact that you've got more radio talk shows, more cable television, more news cycles, more looking at every facet of a person's life. Ironically, this cycle, we really have philosophic differences between the two candidates. So you could spend a great deal of time on issues, whether it be jobs, whether it be infrastructure, education, health care, terrorism -- they're serious issues, but given the nature of how much time will be spent in the news cycles, they're going to look for everything. So these will be the toughest, nastiest races until the next cycle.

MAY: I was just going to say, you have wonder how far it can go and how bad it can get. I mean, we've already had, and it's only February, Democrats saying that President Bush was AWOL, that he betrayed the country, that he's a deserter.

KAMBER: When have you ever heard deserter? Let's not go that far.

MAY: Well, I think we have heard that from people. What did Michael Moore say? It was pretty close to that, wasn't it? We have heard that from the Democrats. And I think that's look betrayal is pretty bad, too. That means you are a traitor. I mean, I think that's way over the line.

President Bush said in the last election he wanted to change the tone. I think he was sincere about that, and you haven't heard this kind of thing from him. But I think he's going to be pushed in this direction.

KAMBER: Wait. Wait. Three years of changing the tone of questioning American's patriotism.

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: We are out of time, which clearly signals to me since you all keep talking as I'm talking, we have to continue this discussion another time. We'll get back to you. Just how nasty it will be, because I think it's something we're going to be talking about for a long time to come as we head into this election. Thanks, guys, as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com