Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Saturday
Democrats Worried About Nader's Announcement Sunday
Aired February 21, 2004 - 18:03 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: Back in the U.S., the Democratic presidential candidates are preparing to square off in more contests. John Edwards is campaigning in New York, Minnesota and Ohio, three of the Super Tuesday states.
He sent a letter to John Kerry asking for a series of debates. Kerry is taking most of the day off but he has a campaign tonight at Hartsfield (ph) Jackson International Airport, here in Atlanta.
Regarding the Edwards debate request Kerry's campaign says the front-runner will be busy the next 10 days but looks forward to seeing Edwards next week in Los Angeles.
The Democratic presidential hopefuls aren't only nervously watching each other but someone else as well. The man some call the spoiler of the 2000 election may run for president again. We could find out tomorrow as CNN's Wolf Blitzer reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Democrats are nervously awaiting word from Ralph Nader, who now says he will announce Sunday whether he will run as an independent third party candidate for president.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CHAIRMAN: We can't afford to have Ralph Nader in the race. This is about the future of our country.
BLITZER: For the Democrats the stakes couldn't be higher. Despite Nader's oft-stated denials, by almost all other accounts Al Gore would be president of the United States right now if it weren't for Nader.
Overall, he captured about 3 percent of the popular vote, but you have to look closer to fully appreciate what happened. Take a look at the math. In Florida alone, which Bush won by a mere 537 votes, Nader captured nearly 100,000 votes. Most of them from people generally seen as much more likely to have voted for a Democrat had he not run.
In New Hampshire, which Bush won by more than 7,000 votes, Nader captured some 22,000 votes. Had either of those states gone to Gore, the former vice president would be president right now.
MCAULIFFE: Well, I have talked to Ralph Nader several times myself. I went to lunch with Ralph Nader, spent several hours with Ralph Nader. BLITZER: Four years ago, Nader ran as the Green Party candidate. He says he won't do so this time because that party won't nominate a candidate until June. And he says that's too late in the process to be effective.
RALPH NADER, CONSUMER ADVOCATE: If I do run it will be as an independent. One out of every three Americans calls themselves independent. We want to give them the kind of candidacy, if I announce it, that will resonate there.
Wolf Blitzer, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SAN MIGUEL: We want to talk more now about Nader's possible bombshell announcement and some other factors effecting the race for the White House. Joining us now from New York is CNN Political Analyst Carlos Watson.
Carlos, thanks for coming in today.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you, Renay.
SAN MIGUEL: You have said that the Democrats should be very nervous about a possible Nader announcement. Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic chairman, has gone on record saying he is begging every Democrat that he knows to beg Nader not to run. Considering what Wolf Blitzer just reported, that many Democrats blame Nader for Bush being president and not Al Gore, why do we care this time? Does he still have that influence?
WATSON: He potentially could. Remember, Renay, it is significant not only when you look at Florida and New Hampshire, two states that Wolf just walked through the math on, but there are two other levels of concern for Democrats.
One, are a series of states which Al Gore won by 1 percent or less, states like Iowa, states like Wisconsin, states like Maine, even. That, again, if Nader were to jump in those could come up and come into play in a way that they ideally shouldn't for Democrats.
Number two, are a series of states like Missouri, Nevada, Arizona, states that Democrats, if Nader had votes had gone to Gore last time, would have been decided by just 1 or 2 percent. States that are seen as toss up states. So, there aren't just two states, they're probably close to a dozen states that Nader could potentially effect the outcome in.
SAN MIGUEL: But what is the message that Nader is trying send here by floating this out here at this particular time? That he's unhappy with the Democratic front-runner, John Kerry, as the potential nominee. Is it ego? Pride? He simply wants to give Americans a third choice?
WATSON: Talk to 10 people and you'll get 12 different ideas as to why he's running. But here's some of what he'll say: He'll say in a very serious way that there are conversations that are not being had today. Conversations on universal healthcare access, conversations on a higher minimum wage, conversations on corporate corruption, conversations on civil rights, that he believes that if he's not in the debate and in the conversation, it won't happen at all.
You'll remember his famous quote, from four years ago, the only difference between a Democrat and Republican is how quickly they drop to their knees in the face of corporate money.
So, you know, that is kind of like what George Wallace said in 1968. There is not a dime's worth of difference between the two parties. So, he would argue there are real issues that need to be debated that if he's not there they won't be on the agenda.
SAN MIGUEL: It was interesting to see the land speed records that were broken today, by both Kerry and Edwards, in trying to put out statements courting the potential Nader vote, saying that if you're independent, you need to come to my camp. Did you see that, as well?
WATSON: Uh, politics makes for strange bedfellows, right?
SAN MIGUEL: Yes.
WATSON: You know, you heard Howard Dean significantly when he exited the race this past week, maybe the most important thing he said was that he was not going to run as a third party candidate. And you could hear him strongly discouraging people like Ralph Nader -- Ralph Nader, in particular --against running.
And Howard Dean's California state director, a place where Ralph Nader got almost a half a million votes in 2000, has come out and said that he thinks that it would be a mistake for Deaniacs and for others on the Left to even consider and flirt with Nader, much less vote for him.
SAN MIGUEL: Let's focus now on Kerry versus Edwards. "The New York Times" has an interesting story today about the likeability factor here. You know, Edwards may be oozing likeability right now but that may not necessarily win nomination, particularly in a time of war.
Edwards said today, that if you are looking for him to go negative against Kerry, he's not going to do it. What do you think? Is there going to be a lot of pressure here with Super Tuesday right around the corner to start attacking Kerry directly?
WATSON: Renay, I think, you will see attacks. But, again, I don't think you'll see them from Edwards. I think you'll, frankly, see them from the president. I think the president's team won't call them attacks, by the way, they'll call them responses to what they see as 10- and 12-months worth of negative Democratic attacks against the president. And you'll begin to see ads in a half dozen states and you'll see more presidential events in a variety of different states. But again, as I look at John Edwards, there's a real argument that, is he running for president or is he both auditioning for the vice presidential nomination and perhaps laying the groundwork for a run in 2008, much like Gary Hart, 20 years ago in 1984.
I mean, he has clearly come off as likeable. Clearly he's come off with some of the most detailed policy proposals, by the way, in the race on either side. And recently he's started to raise a little bit of money, he's raised $700,000 just the other day. So, there are some good things there, but the question is, is it enough? Is it too little, too late?
SAN MIGUEL: Well, I also wanted to ask, I mean, the president's team, you mentioned the attacks and the president responding. They've got to be enjoying what they're seeing right now as an extended Democratic primary with Edwards gaining some momentum, having the strong showing in Wisconsin. And then with the prospect of Ralph Nader jumping in, as well. You know, $145 million, was the latest figures that we got from the Federal Elections Commission regarding how much money the Bush/Cheney had raised so far. They have not yet begun to fight here, right?
WATSON: They're just beginning. There have been reports released of about $6 million worth of spending, $5 to $6 million worth of spending, over the last two months to prepare direct mail campaigns and to prepare ads. And, again, you'll start to see them beginning in March. And you'll see them targeted at Kerry.
And remember, six to eight weeks ago the president's team and most of America and most of those involved in politics thought that the president would be spending this money on Howard Dean. So, they've obviously had to move on a dime and move quickly.
One of the most important things to remember about the Nader run and to remember about this overall election is that President Bush has done something incredibly skillful when it comes to politics. Unlike the incumbents who have lost over the last 30 years, he's avoided a challenge within his party. And now it looks like the Democrats will have, you know, a third party challenge on the Left.
So, unlike his dad, who had Pat Buchanan challenging him or Jimmy Carter who had Edward Kennedy, remember the president went unbruised, in many ways, at least within his own party, as we have gone through the primary season.
SAN MIGUEL: Before we let you go, Carlos, very quickly I wanted to talk about the race in Kentucky for the open seat involving Mr. Chandler, there. The Democrats are calling this a bellwether for how the Bush administration is being perceived now by the voters. What do you think?
WATSON: You know, it's tough to say. Ben Chandler comes from a well-known family. His grandfather was governor of the state and also commission of baseball. Ben Chandler had just run for governor, so everyone knew his name, high name I.D. He did win it by 10 or 12 points, which is significant in a district that voted for President Bush, with about 60 percent in 2000.
But I wouldn't make too much of it. It's too early. A lot of other things to look at. But congressional races will become part of the presidential calculus. Remember, we've got more than -- we've got almost a half dozen open Senate seats in the South alone, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana. So, these congressional seats will be important, I'm not sure this is the one though.
SAN MIGUEL: Well, it's times like these that CNN political analyst Carlos Watson just lives for. He is just eating up all of this. Thanks so much, Carlos, we'll see you next time.
WATSON: Have a great evening.
SAN MIGUEL: You, too.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 21, 2004 - 18:03 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: Back in the U.S., the Democratic presidential candidates are preparing to square off in more contests. John Edwards is campaigning in New York, Minnesota and Ohio, three of the Super Tuesday states.
He sent a letter to John Kerry asking for a series of debates. Kerry is taking most of the day off but he has a campaign tonight at Hartsfield (ph) Jackson International Airport, here in Atlanta.
Regarding the Edwards debate request Kerry's campaign says the front-runner will be busy the next 10 days but looks forward to seeing Edwards next week in Los Angeles.
The Democratic presidential hopefuls aren't only nervously watching each other but someone else as well. The man some call the spoiler of the 2000 election may run for president again. We could find out tomorrow as CNN's Wolf Blitzer reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Democrats are nervously awaiting word from Ralph Nader, who now says he will announce Sunday whether he will run as an independent third party candidate for president.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CHAIRMAN: We can't afford to have Ralph Nader in the race. This is about the future of our country.
BLITZER: For the Democrats the stakes couldn't be higher. Despite Nader's oft-stated denials, by almost all other accounts Al Gore would be president of the United States right now if it weren't for Nader.
Overall, he captured about 3 percent of the popular vote, but you have to look closer to fully appreciate what happened. Take a look at the math. In Florida alone, which Bush won by a mere 537 votes, Nader captured nearly 100,000 votes. Most of them from people generally seen as much more likely to have voted for a Democrat had he not run.
In New Hampshire, which Bush won by more than 7,000 votes, Nader captured some 22,000 votes. Had either of those states gone to Gore, the former vice president would be president right now.
MCAULIFFE: Well, I have talked to Ralph Nader several times myself. I went to lunch with Ralph Nader, spent several hours with Ralph Nader. BLITZER: Four years ago, Nader ran as the Green Party candidate. He says he won't do so this time because that party won't nominate a candidate until June. And he says that's too late in the process to be effective.
RALPH NADER, CONSUMER ADVOCATE: If I do run it will be as an independent. One out of every three Americans calls themselves independent. We want to give them the kind of candidacy, if I announce it, that will resonate there.
Wolf Blitzer, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SAN MIGUEL: We want to talk more now about Nader's possible bombshell announcement and some other factors effecting the race for the White House. Joining us now from New York is CNN Political Analyst Carlos Watson.
Carlos, thanks for coming in today.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you, Renay.
SAN MIGUEL: You have said that the Democrats should be very nervous about a possible Nader announcement. Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic chairman, has gone on record saying he is begging every Democrat that he knows to beg Nader not to run. Considering what Wolf Blitzer just reported, that many Democrats blame Nader for Bush being president and not Al Gore, why do we care this time? Does he still have that influence?
WATSON: He potentially could. Remember, Renay, it is significant not only when you look at Florida and New Hampshire, two states that Wolf just walked through the math on, but there are two other levels of concern for Democrats.
One, are a series of states which Al Gore won by 1 percent or less, states like Iowa, states like Wisconsin, states like Maine, even. That, again, if Nader were to jump in those could come up and come into play in a way that they ideally shouldn't for Democrats.
Number two, are a series of states like Missouri, Nevada, Arizona, states that Democrats, if Nader had votes had gone to Gore last time, would have been decided by just 1 or 2 percent. States that are seen as toss up states. So, there aren't just two states, they're probably close to a dozen states that Nader could potentially effect the outcome in.
SAN MIGUEL: But what is the message that Nader is trying send here by floating this out here at this particular time? That he's unhappy with the Democratic front-runner, John Kerry, as the potential nominee. Is it ego? Pride? He simply wants to give Americans a third choice?
WATSON: Talk to 10 people and you'll get 12 different ideas as to why he's running. But here's some of what he'll say: He'll say in a very serious way that there are conversations that are not being had today. Conversations on universal healthcare access, conversations on a higher minimum wage, conversations on corporate corruption, conversations on civil rights, that he believes that if he's not in the debate and in the conversation, it won't happen at all.
You'll remember his famous quote, from four years ago, the only difference between a Democrat and Republican is how quickly they drop to their knees in the face of corporate money.
So, you know, that is kind of like what George Wallace said in 1968. There is not a dime's worth of difference between the two parties. So, he would argue there are real issues that need to be debated that if he's not there they won't be on the agenda.
SAN MIGUEL: It was interesting to see the land speed records that were broken today, by both Kerry and Edwards, in trying to put out statements courting the potential Nader vote, saying that if you're independent, you need to come to my camp. Did you see that, as well?
WATSON: Uh, politics makes for strange bedfellows, right?
SAN MIGUEL: Yes.
WATSON: You know, you heard Howard Dean significantly when he exited the race this past week, maybe the most important thing he said was that he was not going to run as a third party candidate. And you could hear him strongly discouraging people like Ralph Nader -- Ralph Nader, in particular --against running.
And Howard Dean's California state director, a place where Ralph Nader got almost a half a million votes in 2000, has come out and said that he thinks that it would be a mistake for Deaniacs and for others on the Left to even consider and flirt with Nader, much less vote for him.
SAN MIGUEL: Let's focus now on Kerry versus Edwards. "The New York Times" has an interesting story today about the likeability factor here. You know, Edwards may be oozing likeability right now but that may not necessarily win nomination, particularly in a time of war.
Edwards said today, that if you are looking for him to go negative against Kerry, he's not going to do it. What do you think? Is there going to be a lot of pressure here with Super Tuesday right around the corner to start attacking Kerry directly?
WATSON: Renay, I think, you will see attacks. But, again, I don't think you'll see them from Edwards. I think you'll, frankly, see them from the president. I think the president's team won't call them attacks, by the way, they'll call them responses to what they see as 10- and 12-months worth of negative Democratic attacks against the president. And you'll begin to see ads in a half dozen states and you'll see more presidential events in a variety of different states. But again, as I look at John Edwards, there's a real argument that, is he running for president or is he both auditioning for the vice presidential nomination and perhaps laying the groundwork for a run in 2008, much like Gary Hart, 20 years ago in 1984.
I mean, he has clearly come off as likeable. Clearly he's come off with some of the most detailed policy proposals, by the way, in the race on either side. And recently he's started to raise a little bit of money, he's raised $700,000 just the other day. So, there are some good things there, but the question is, is it enough? Is it too little, too late?
SAN MIGUEL: Well, I also wanted to ask, I mean, the president's team, you mentioned the attacks and the president responding. They've got to be enjoying what they're seeing right now as an extended Democratic primary with Edwards gaining some momentum, having the strong showing in Wisconsin. And then with the prospect of Ralph Nader jumping in, as well. You know, $145 million, was the latest figures that we got from the Federal Elections Commission regarding how much money the Bush/Cheney had raised so far. They have not yet begun to fight here, right?
WATSON: They're just beginning. There have been reports released of about $6 million worth of spending, $5 to $6 million worth of spending, over the last two months to prepare direct mail campaigns and to prepare ads. And, again, you'll start to see them beginning in March. And you'll see them targeted at Kerry.
And remember, six to eight weeks ago the president's team and most of America and most of those involved in politics thought that the president would be spending this money on Howard Dean. So, they've obviously had to move on a dime and move quickly.
One of the most important things to remember about the Nader run and to remember about this overall election is that President Bush has done something incredibly skillful when it comes to politics. Unlike the incumbents who have lost over the last 30 years, he's avoided a challenge within his party. And now it looks like the Democrats will have, you know, a third party challenge on the Left.
So, unlike his dad, who had Pat Buchanan challenging him or Jimmy Carter who had Edward Kennedy, remember the president went unbruised, in many ways, at least within his own party, as we have gone through the primary season.
SAN MIGUEL: Before we let you go, Carlos, very quickly I wanted to talk about the race in Kentucky for the open seat involving Mr. Chandler, there. The Democrats are calling this a bellwether for how the Bush administration is being perceived now by the voters. What do you think?
WATSON: You know, it's tough to say. Ben Chandler comes from a well-known family. His grandfather was governor of the state and also commission of baseball. Ben Chandler had just run for governor, so everyone knew his name, high name I.D. He did win it by 10 or 12 points, which is significant in a district that voted for President Bush, with about 60 percent in 2000.
But I wouldn't make too much of it. It's too early. A lot of other things to look at. But congressional races will become part of the presidential calculus. Remember, we've got more than -- we've got almost a half dozen open Senate seats in the South alone, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana. So, these congressional seats will be important, I'm not sure this is the one though.
SAN MIGUEL: Well, it's times like these that CNN political analyst Carlos Watson just lives for. He is just eating up all of this. Thanks so much, Carlos, we'll see you next time.
WATSON: Have a great evening.
SAN MIGUEL: You, too.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
