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America's Voice: Campaign 2004, 'The Passion of the Christ'
Aired February 24, 2004 - 06:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: On the heels of President Bush's get-tough-on-the-Democrats speech and Ralph Nader's I-want-to-run run, we have numbers for you.
Let's head live to Princeton, New Jersey, and Gallup Poll editor- in-chief Frank Newport.
Good morning, Frank. Let's start with Ralph Nader and the impact he'll have on the race.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, it's an interesting question. And, of course, we'll have to wait and see how that plays out. He got between 2 and 3 percent of the vote last time in 2000.
But we have a paradox of sorts. I've been studying some of our historic data. Americans generally like the idea of third-party candidates. In a way, they say, oh, the more the merrier. We have more to choose from. In fact, last fall, we asked specifically about Nader, and here it was, 23 percent, not an insignificant number, 1 out of 4 Americans say sure, let Nader run.
But here is the problem when we asked: Is it possible that Nader cost Gore the presidency back in 2000? And that's what a lot of Democratic leaders have claimed. Rank-and-file Democrats tend to agree. This is the Republicans saying, no, of course not; 24 percent of Independents kind of in the middle. But look at this: 58 percent of Democrats nationally told us in this poll last fall they thought Nader had cost Gore the election.
So, you've got kind of cross-pressures, Carol. Yes, we like more candidates; no, we don't like the candidate if in a very close election it cost our party's candidate the election.
So, we'll see what happens.
COSTELLO: Interesting. And let's talk about the primaries. Both sides are trying to energize their bases. Is it working?
NEWPORT: Well, that's the key phrase. I've heard that a hundred times so far. We have to activate the base turnout, those kinds of things. Indeed, usually Republicans, Carol, have an advantage there. Republican voters are more likely to turn out than the Democrats. It gives them an advantage in most major elections. But so far this year, the Democrats have been doing better.
Here's the fascinating bit of data from our last CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll. How much thought have you given to the election? On the right-hand side there, people are voting for Kerry, more thought to the general election than people who say they're voting for Bush.
So, right now, the Democrats have an advantage in terms of activating their base. If they can maintain this through next November, it would be a real plus for them, and it will also be historic, because typically it's the Republicans who do better.
COSTELLO: And it's a long time until November, isn't it?
Let's totally switch gears and talk about Mel Gibson's movie, "The Passion of the Christ." It opens at theaters tomorrow, which is, of course, Ash Wednesday. Is it resonating with Americans?
NEWPORT: Well, we know this much: that the potential audience, Carol, should be huge for this play about the last days of the life of Jesus Christ -- of course, the person around whom the religion of Christianity is built.
People lose sight of it sometimes, at least when I make speeches I'm told this. This is a very Christian nation; 85 percent of Americans identify with one or the other type of Christian faith. See that? Half are Protestants, a quarter Catholic, other Christians another 9 percent.
So, it is indeed a nation that at least theoretically should be very -- at least interested, let me put it that way -- in the film. But if it's controversial, they may not go. But it's certainly potentially dealing with something that the vast majority of Americans are very concerned about, and that is, of course, their Christian leader, Jesus Christ.
COSTELLO: Well, we'll see how it plays out tomorrow. Frank Newport, thanks for those fascinating numbers this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
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Aired February 24, 2004 - 06:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: On the heels of President Bush's get-tough-on-the-Democrats speech and Ralph Nader's I-want-to-run run, we have numbers for you.
Let's head live to Princeton, New Jersey, and Gallup Poll editor- in-chief Frank Newport.
Good morning, Frank. Let's start with Ralph Nader and the impact he'll have on the race.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, it's an interesting question. And, of course, we'll have to wait and see how that plays out. He got between 2 and 3 percent of the vote last time in 2000.
But we have a paradox of sorts. I've been studying some of our historic data. Americans generally like the idea of third-party candidates. In a way, they say, oh, the more the merrier. We have more to choose from. In fact, last fall, we asked specifically about Nader, and here it was, 23 percent, not an insignificant number, 1 out of 4 Americans say sure, let Nader run.
But here is the problem when we asked: Is it possible that Nader cost Gore the presidency back in 2000? And that's what a lot of Democratic leaders have claimed. Rank-and-file Democrats tend to agree. This is the Republicans saying, no, of course not; 24 percent of Independents kind of in the middle. But look at this: 58 percent of Democrats nationally told us in this poll last fall they thought Nader had cost Gore the election.
So, you've got kind of cross-pressures, Carol. Yes, we like more candidates; no, we don't like the candidate if in a very close election it cost our party's candidate the election.
So, we'll see what happens.
COSTELLO: Interesting. And let's talk about the primaries. Both sides are trying to energize their bases. Is it working?
NEWPORT: Well, that's the key phrase. I've heard that a hundred times so far. We have to activate the base turnout, those kinds of things. Indeed, usually Republicans, Carol, have an advantage there. Republican voters are more likely to turn out than the Democrats. It gives them an advantage in most major elections. But so far this year, the Democrats have been doing better.
Here's the fascinating bit of data from our last CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll. How much thought have you given to the election? On the right-hand side there, people are voting for Kerry, more thought to the general election than people who say they're voting for Bush.
So, right now, the Democrats have an advantage in terms of activating their base. If they can maintain this through next November, it would be a real plus for them, and it will also be historic, because typically it's the Republicans who do better.
COSTELLO: And it's a long time until November, isn't it?
Let's totally switch gears and talk about Mel Gibson's movie, "The Passion of the Christ." It opens at theaters tomorrow, which is, of course, Ash Wednesday. Is it resonating with Americans?
NEWPORT: Well, we know this much: that the potential audience, Carol, should be huge for this play about the last days of the life of Jesus Christ -- of course, the person around whom the religion of Christianity is built.
People lose sight of it sometimes, at least when I make speeches I'm told this. This is a very Christian nation; 85 percent of Americans identify with one or the other type of Christian faith. See that? Half are Protestants, a quarter Catholic, other Christians another 9 percent.
So, it is indeed a nation that at least theoretically should be very -- at least interested, let me put it that way -- in the film. But if it's controversial, they may not go. But it's certainly potentially dealing with something that the vast majority of Americans are very concerned about, and that is, of course, their Christian leader, Jesus Christ.
COSTELLO: Well, we'll see how it plays out tomorrow. Frank Newport, thanks for those fascinating numbers this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
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