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AMERICAN MORNING

Democratic Debate Tonight in Los Angeles

Aired February 26, 2004 - 09:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight's debate in Los Angeles is the last time the four remaining Democratic presidential candidates gather in the same place before the big day on Tuesday; 1,151 delegates at stake in the upcoming Super Tuesday contest. Tonight's showdown could go a long way toward deciding how they will be divided.
Senior analyst Bill Schneider up early today, only 12 hours to wait for that debate tonight, Bill. Good morning to you there, live in Los Angeles.

Let's start with Senator Kerry. What does he need to do tonight, Bill, in your estimation?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, the basic fact about this race is most Democrats are satisfied with Kerry, and he wants to keep it that way. How does he do that? No. 1, he wants to minimize his issue differences with John Edwards, his principle competitor. Essentially say, you know, there's no reason to vote for him if you're happy with me, because we have the same position on issues like trade. He wants to keep the focus on George Bush. Kerry's issue, electability. I can make the case against Bush, that's why I should be the nominee. And third, a lot of people say they like John Edwards; he's a likable fellow. Kerry's a little bit aloof and diffident. Kerry wants to show his personality a little bit, because he wants to convince those voters who like Edwards better than Kerry, that he can be just as likable as his competitor.

HEMMER: That's one to measure up. How about Senator Edwards? What are you looking for there?

SCHNEIDER: Senator Edwards, he has a big problem, because he has to shift his whole race up, and he has no money to buy ads in a state like California here, where you can spend $1 million or $2 million a week. He doesn't have it. So he's got to do something pretty strong. He's got to challenge John Kerry's electability, first of all, because that's why most Democrats support Kerry. He's got to say, maybe, if he wants to get tough, you know, he's a Massachusetts liberal, and he's going to have trouble getting elected. Edwards has to stress his outsider status -- Kerry's an insider, I'm an outsider. That way he can link up with those Howard Dean voters. And third, he's got to grab some headlines. Not a lot of people are likely to be watching this debate. He's got to get some news coverage on the local news. He's got to get into the newspapers the next day. He's got to get people in California buzzing. He's got to throw a hail mary pass that's going to get voters in California paying attention.

HEMMER: Yes, hail mary with probably a miracle reception, too, with that movie out right now, miracle at the box office, twenty-four years ago. This would be quite the upset if Edwards does it over Kerry next Tuesday. What about in California regarding issues? Do the issues in California reflect the issues across the country or not, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: Some of them do, but there's one particular issue that's very local in California, as well as the country, and that is gay marriage. Same-sex marriage is big here because San Francisco, last time I looked, it was sort of part of California. Gavin Newsom, the mayor, they're bound to be asked about him, as well as President Bush's proposed constitutional amendment.

Immigration is a huge issue in California. The question about Bush's policy on immigration. It's an unpopular policy. A lot of Democrats think it doesn't go far enough. So they're going to have to address that.

Education, that's a very big issue here, and this state has no money, but yet their educational system is lagging way behind. How are they going to turn education around here without spending a lot of money they don't have?

The trade issue cuts differently in California than the rest of the country. This is a state very closely linked to foreign trade. And therefore, Edwards has to be careful in how he talks about this issue.

And finally, the one you just mentioned, Alan Greenspan talked about the deficit and the future of Social Security. The question is both Democrats, all the Democrats, talk about getting rid of at least the tax cut on the wealthy. The question is, are there any spending programs that they would be willing to make major cuts in order to get the deficit down, anything at all? These are Democrats after all.

HEMMER: An excellent preview. Thanks, Bill. Enjoy it later tonight, 12 hours and counting. Bill Schneider there L.A.

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