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American Morning
New Era in Iraq; Interview With Former National Security Advisor Sandy Berger
Aired March 08, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A new day in Iraq, taking infant steps toward democracy, while candidate Kerry accuses President Bush of stonewalling the Iraqi investigation.
U.S. Marines fire their first shots as gunmen attack anti- Aristide protesters in Haiti.
And "The Passion of the Christ" sets a box office record, and it may see another holiday boost as well.
Those stories ahead and much more on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Soledad O'Brien and Bill Hemmer.
S. O'BRIEN: Good morning. Welcome, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien. Bill Hemmer is off for a couple of days, but Miles O'Brien -- no, he's not my brother -- has been kind enough to join us.
Nice to see you, Miles. Thank you.
M. O'BRIEN: Doing a little skiing? Is that what he's doing?
S. O'BRIEN: Yes, you know, always.
M. O'BRIEN: All right. Well, we're working here.
S. O'BRIEN: That's right, Hemmer. We're working.
Question this morning: Just how far is Martha Stewart going to fall? We're going to hear how her behavior today could affect the severity of her sentence. Also, what Martha Stewart's conviction means for her company, it's employees and her personal fortune as well.
M. O'BRIEN: We'll also hear about the man behind the hunt for Osama bin Laden, Rear Admiral William McCraven (ph). He's been called the smartest Navy S.E.A.L. who ever lived. He literally wrote the book on special operations. He can probably kill you with his bare hands about 12 ways. His former boss at the White House says if anyone can find bin Laden, McCraven (ph) and his team can.
S. O'BRIEN: No question about that.
Jack Cafferty back from wisdom teeth surgery. JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, just a little encounter with the dentist on Friday, but we'll survive. Its not the worst thing in the world.
S. O'BRIEN: OK.
CAFFERTY: Coming up a little later, we're going to take a look at one of the major issues in the upcoming presidential election and have the illustrious viewers of this here TV program resolve it so the candidates don't have to fool with it. They can devote themselves to other stuff.
S. O'BRIEN: That's so helpful of you, as you always are.
CAFFERTY: I'm just here to serve.
S. O'BRIEN: Right, Jack.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: So, you could have done the show; instead, you got your wisdom teeth out, is that what happened?
CAFFERTY: I had one of them pulled.
S. O'BRIEN: He did the show and...
CAFFERTY: Yes, yes.
M. O'BRIEN: Yikes! All right.
CAFFERTY: I'm still trying to decide which was more painful.
S. O'BRIEN: The worst option.
CAFFERTY: The verdict is out, though.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, we'll see you a little bit later.
CAFFERTY: OK.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's check the news, shall we?
Haiti's ousted president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, is calling for peace in Haiti. His comments come at the -- as at least four people were shot and killed during a massive demonstration in Port-au-Prince yesterday. Aristide supporters opened fire on some 1,000 protesters. U.S. Marines guarding the national palace returned the fire. It's the first time they've had to shoot since they arrived in Haiti last week.
The search for three people, including a child, is resuming this morning after a ferry accident in Baltimore over the weekend. The water taxi was carrying 25 people when it capsized Saturday in a very sudden storm. Twenty-one survived. One of the 22 people rescued died later in the hospital. Officials say weather and the condition and operation of the boat are being considered as possible causes of that accident. The probe into possible cadaver thefts at the University of California is expanding. Henry Reid (ph), director of UCLA's Willed Body Program, was arrested over the weekend. He has been linked to the illegal sale of bodies and body parts that were donated to the university for medical research. The university says more arrests are possible.
In Utah, a survival exercise became the real thing for 39 Boy Scouts and their leaders after an avalanche. A wall of snow collapsed, trapping the group in caves they had made during their weekend trip. Scout leaders nearby heard the avalanche. They called for help. Rescue workers recovered the group unharmed. How is that for a merit badge?
In Kentucky, state police are searching for a missing woman after flash flooding left a 4-year-old girl and one man dead. The body of the 4-year-old was found yesterday morning. She had been riding in a pickup truck with her father when high water swept the vehicle away. The father survived.
S. O'BRIEN: What a terrible story there. Isn't it terrible?
M. O'BRIEN: Oh, it's an awful tragedy. You got it.
S. O'BRIEN: First check of the forecast now.
(WEATHER BREAK)
Iraq was sent on a new path towards self-rule this morning as members of the Iraqi Governing Council signed an interim constitution.
Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf is at the convention center, where the signing took place. She joins us this morning with the very latest.
Jane -- good morning.
JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Good morning, Soledad.
Well, it took a rehearsal or two, but today it finally happened. The 25 members of the Governing Council showed up. They all came. They sat down, and one by one they picked up the gold pens and signed that document. And that document is a constitution that is unprecedented, not just in this region, but in many other countries. Twenty-five pages with the bill of rights for all Iraqis. Democratic institutions, including a separate judiciary, a supreme court. A target of 25 percent women elected when there are general elections.
But this document -- this is just a start. And as they were signing it, just before, explosions heard in the neighborhood near here -- an indication that a lot of the hard work might still be ahead -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Jane, the latest delay, of course, I'm curious to know if that's an indication of just how difficult it is at the end of the day going to be to bring democracy into Iraq. I mean, they have huge obstacles ahead.
ARRAF: It's probably a really tough call anywhere. But I think we have to remember that what's being created here is essentially new. They have had in the past some democratic institutions, but what they're doing is creating a country that basically recognizes the rights of very different groups with very different agendas.
Now, it was interesting that the desk that they signed this on belonged to King Faisal I, who was actually a king propped up by the British. Now, that was a very different Iraq. It was a country that came into being with the help of foreign powers, not to make any similarities here. But essentially, what they are trying to do is learn how to govern themselves, and that's going to be a tough process. But they say that today they are on that road -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Jane Arraf for us this morning. Jane, thanks a lot.
Iraq is at the center of the latest campaign rhetoric as well. Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, calls the Bush foreign policy reckless and arrogant. Senator Kerry may send an assessment team to Iraq to help formulate his Iraq policy, and he's also leaving open the possibility of making the trip himself.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I haven't ruled it out. I'm just not -- it's not on a front burner right now, and I'd prefer for the moment to get some assessments. If I find from those assessments that there may be a real reason to go further, I could follow up on it. I haven't ruled out the potential of any foreign travel at this point.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
S. O'BRIEN: Joining us this morning from Washington, D.C. to talk a little bit more about Senator Kerry's planned fact-finding mission in Iraq is former National Security Adviser Sandy Berger.
Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for being with us.
SANDY BERGER, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR: Good morning, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Why exactly would Senator Kerry want to send his own fact-finding mission into Iraq?
BERGER: Well, obviously Iraq is going to be a very important issue in the campaign going forward, and, indeed, no one expects this issue to be solved by January 20, 2005. And if Senator Kerry is elected president, it's going to be an issue he faces squarely in the eye from day one. So, I think it's very important.
We've had a lot of back and forth in the administration about what's really going on in Iraq. I think it's very important that he get his own people on the ground and take their own assessment. I think he wants to be ready. I think he wants to be realistic. And I think he wants to be responsible, as he goes forward, talking about Iraq. And putting his own people on the ground to do their own assessment I think is the prudent and wise step.
S. O'BRIEN: Let's talk a little bit about some of the risks to Senator Kerry. There is a risk, and he admitted it himself, that you could be seen as politicizing an issue in an election year. How big of a problem do you think this is?
BERGER: I don't think that's a problem at all. I mean, we've had delegations go from the Congress and from others to take a look for themselves in Iraq. This is an extraordinarily important issue in this campaign. And we've had, as I say, lots of back and forth in this administration about how things are going. I think the American people would expect Senator Kerry to get his own assessment here from his own people that he trusts.
S. O'BRIEN: White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett had this to say. He said "Kerry's mission to finally understand what's happening in Iraq reveals once again that his attacks are based on politics, not on facts."
And there are certainly some who would say, oh, now a fact- finding mission is being considered when Senator Kerry has long been criticizing President Bush on what's been going on in Iraq.
BERGER: Well, you know, facts here from the administration have been hard to get your hands around. We had weapons of mass destruction. We didn't have weapons of mass the destruction. We had a link between Saddam Hussein and terrorists. We didn't have a link between Saddam Hussein and terrorists.
So, the so-called facts that we've gotten from the administration all through this process have been ultimately proved to be very often inaccurate. So, I think under those circumstances, it's perfectly appropriate and prudent to send your own people there to assess the situation.
S. O'BRIEN: Any concern, though, by sending his own team he's, to some degree, undermining President Bush?
BERGER: No, I don't think so at all. Things will go forward. We just saw today a signing of a constitution. I think for Senator Kerry, either himself or through his surrogates, to go talk to our military people, to go talk to our civilian people, to talk to the Iraqi people, to get a read as to where we are in this very difficult process I think will inform the campaign, elevate the debate, and I think inform a Kerry presidency, if he is elected.
S. O'BRIEN: Former National Security Adviser Sandy Berger joining us this morning. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks.
BERGER: Good to see you, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Thanks -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Attorney General John Ashcroft is still in a Washington hospital this morning, four days after being admitted for severe gallstone pancreatitis. The 61-year-old Ashcroft had been in the intensive care unit as of Saturday. A Justice Department spokesman would not comment on Ashcroft's condition. However, a hospital spokesman said the hospital and the Justice Department Web sites would provide updates, but no report has been posted since Ashcroft was admitted on Thursday.
Mel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ" was tops in movie ticket sales for a second straight weekend. The controversial film about the last hours in the life of Jesus took in about $51.5 million. The film's distributor estimates that the film has earned 212 million since its release on Ash Wednesday.
Our "90-Second Pop" panel will have much more box office news a little later this hour.
S. O'BRIEN: And still to come this morning, convicted on all counts. Just how much time will Martha Stewart serve? Legal analysis just ahead from Jeff Toobin, who was in the courtroom for that verdict.
M. O'BRIEN: And after discovering that Mars was once a watery place, what will we learn next from the rovers? Little green men, perhaps? We'll look at what work is left to be done on the Red Planet.
S. O'BRIEN: And the family is back. The fifth season of "The Sopranos" begins. We're going to check in with our own mob, the "90- Second Pop" panelists, ahead, as AMERICAN MORNING continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Martha Stewart has a date with her probation officer today. Oh, to be a fly on the wall.
The meeting is part of a pre-sentencing phase after her conviction Friday for conspiracy, obstruction of justice and lying to federal investigators. Stewart's lawyers plan to appeal, of course.
Joining us now with his thoughts on that and what kind of time Stewart might ultimately serve, Jeff Toobin.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning.
M. O'BRIEN: Our legal pooh-bah (ph) here. Pooh-by (ph) is correct.
TOOBIN: Senior pooh-bah (ph).
M. O'BRIEN: Senior pooh-bah (ph).
TOOBIN: That's right.
M. O'BRIEN: First of all, tell us about this meeting today. What are they going to discuss? Is she going to have to wear one of those ankle bracelets, and what color? TOOBIN: If she's lucky, she'll wear an ankle bracelet.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
TOOBIN: Basically, what this is, is this the first step towards preparing the pre-sentence investigation, the pre-sentence report, which will determine her federal sentencing guidelines, which is literally a number that she'll get, which will, in turn, determine the sentencing range, the months in prison she will serve in prison.
M. O'BRIEN: A number, literally?
TOOBIN: Absolutely. She might get an 8. She might get a 10. She might get a 12. The higher, the worse for her.
M. O'BRIEN: And this is based on attitude or what?
TOOBIN: Well, based on a lot of things. There's a base offense level for each crime that she's committed of -- that she committed. Then there are enhancements and reductions. You get an enhancement if you abused a position of trust. You get an enhancement if you engaged in more than minimal planning. You get a reduction if you accept responsibility for your crimes. It's going to be the probation department's job to determine whether those characterizations apply, and what -- you know, and what's her ultimate number.
M. O'BRIEN: And we should point out that in the federal system there are strict formulas that the judges are bound to stick to, correct?
TOOBIN: That's right. That's why, you know, when people say five years per count, a 20-year maximum, that's really irrelevant. That is not the determining factor. What determines your sentence in federal court is the sentencing guidelines, which the judge is pretty much bound to follow closely.
M. O'BRIEN: And that can be difficult at times in cases that just don't go outside the norm, right?
TOOBIN: That's right. And it's often very contentious, and the judge often has to decide ultimately which sentencing guidelines apply. For example, acceptance of responsibility, that's always a big issue. Did the person accept responsibility for her crimes?
Remember, Martha Stewart put on her Web site on Friday, I did nothing wrong. Then hours later took it down.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
TOOBIN: That's really because of the sentencing guidelines, because if she's got something on her Web site saying I did nothing wrong, she'll never get those two points off for acceptance of responsibility.
M. O'BRIEN: The points are there or taken off or whatever.
TOOBIN: Exactly.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, now the chance of an appeal here, everything that I've read about Judge Cedarbaum was she ran a good courtroom, and she threw out the charge that was the most outrageous one, I guess, if you put it that way. So, the chances of getting an appeal when I think less than 10 percent of cases in these courts are actually overturned on appeal.
TOOBIN: Less than 10 percent of all cases, and this one in particular I would say the chances are even much less than that, because, as you point out, a lot of the big rulings in this case went in favor of the defense -- the securities fraud count being thrown out. There was certain telephone records that the defense wanted kept out. They were kept out. I just think she's got a very little shot on appeal.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, senior pooh-bah (ph), Jeff Toobin.
TOOBIN: That's right.
M. O'BRIEN: Thank you very much -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Well, just how is the guilty verdict affecting Martha Stewart's company, and what does the future look like?
Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business."
Good morning.
SERWER: Good morning to you.
S. O'BRIEN: We spoke a little bit about this on Friday evening.
SERWER: Right.
S. O'BRIEN: So, let's start this morning with the stock and where everybody thinks it's going to go.
SERWER: Yes. Well, that's probably downwards. In pre-market trading, it's trading below $10 now. You may remember on Friday a wild ride. The stock went from 13 and change. Investors guessing it was going to be a positive verdict. Oops! It got up to $17. You can see there the fat blue line. Then the verdict came out. The stock plunged to under $11. It closed at 10.80, down 23 percent on the day. Martha Stewart got a big hit, because she owns 61 percent of the stock. And, as I said, it's probably going down to single digits.
S. O'BRIEN: And, of course, many people are asking not only about the stock and what's happening day to day, but also the company in the big picture, what's going to happen there.
SERWER: Yes. It really was the talk of the town yesterday and over the weekend. Everyone wanted to talk about what's happening on Madison Avenue. The company says that it's going to soldier on basically, releasing a statement saying they're distressed, but they're going to move ahead. Let's take a look a little bit at Martha Stewart, the company. Five hundred employees work there. They've obviously got all kinds of publishing, television, merchandising and Internet. Television, we should point out, Viacom is dropping the show from the CBS stations. So, that is going to be a blow. They're suggesting perhaps that merchandising could hold up better than, say, the publishing. But it's really a psychological thing, Soledad. Will consumers buy the magazine, watch the shows and use her products or not?
S. O'BRIEN: And when you say psychological, it means we really won't know until everybody kind of votes with their dollars.
SERWER: I think that's right. The board, by the way, is going to be meeting today and tomorrow, deciding what to do. It's unclear whether or not she can remain on the board of the company. Remember, she is no longer CEO. I would say the likelihood of that is probably not good.
And then what does the company do? Do they sell? Do they change the name of the company? Or do they just look to try to soldier on and keep moving ahead?
One thing we know they're going to do is try to distance some of the products from her name. They've already done that with the new magazine. It's called "Everyday Food." And you can see here some of the other things -- the pet keeping, organizing good things and that sort of thing as well.
S. O'BRIEN: I'm sure a lot of it will depend, too, on exactly how much time in the end she does get.
SERWER: I think that's right. I really don't think that Martha is over. I think that she'll be able to resuscitate herself and her career down the road. It's going to take time.
TOOBIN: Isn't it true that...
SERWER: What do you think, Jeff?
TOOBIN: Well, just the thing that's so sad about this is that the products are good.
SERWER: They are good.
TOOBIN: The products at KMart are reasonably priced. They're good products. "Martha Stewart Living Magazine," which has nothing to do with insider trading...
S. O'BRIEN: A great magazine.
SERWER: Right.
TOOBIN: ... is a wonderful magazine. And do you think it can -- I mean, don't you think the market maybe has discounted this at this point?
SERWER: I think that...
TOOBIN: That everybody knows she's in trouble -- she's been in trouble for a year -- that there won't be that much of a difference?
SERWER: I think it could happen. A lot of people are actually starting to feel sorry for her. You know, there might be a backlash. I mean, you know, you never know. I think you're right.
S. O'BRIEN: It's just going to depend on if she gets six months or if she five years. I have to imagine that's going to make a difference.
SERWER: Right.
M. O'BRIEN: There's an awful lot of...
S. O'BRIEN: We're going to...
M. O'BRIEN: I'm sorry. Go ahead.
S. O'BRIEN: Oh, I was just going to go to commercial, but you go ahead.
M. O'BRIEN: There are a lot of loyal people to Martha. We'll just leave it at that.
S. O'BRIEN: I would agree.
SERWER: Yes.
S. O'BRIEN: All right. Still to come this morning, cheering and celebration quelled in Haiti after gunfire erupts near the presidential palace. We've got the latest on that just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING. Stay with us, everybody. We're back just after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Exiled Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide this morning is calling for peace in his strife-ridden country. His appeal comes a day after deadly gunfire erupted during a massive demonstration in Haiti. At least four people were killed at an anti- Aristide demonstration near the presidential palace in Port-au-Prince.
Lucia Newman has more from the Haitian capital this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LUCIA NEWMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One minute, there was cheering and celebration in front of Haiti's presidential palace. The next, it was this. Gunmen armed with pistols and high-powered rifles shot at anti-Aristide demonstrators, while U.S. Marines guarding the palace fired their first shots since arriving in Haiti. Nearby, an unarmed Haitian laid dead in a pool of blood. People in shock, but also angry. The demonstration began peacefully enough with U.S. Marines and French troops joining Haitian police to escort the marches towards the palace.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Aristide needs to go in prison, because he's a criminal. He killed a lot of people in Haiti.
NEWMAN: There were tense moments when those celebrating last week's departure of President Aristide confronted some of his supporters. The Marines, keeping both sides apart, allowing the march to continue.
(on camera): Celebrating Aristide's departure is the easy part. Trying to get this extraordinarily polarized nation to decide on how to move forward is the real challenge.
(voice-over): A challenge that became brutally clear when even the celebration turned violent, with the foreign troops who had escorted them no longer visible.
"Where were the French and American troops when we needed them?" screamed this group.
Others said Marines should never have pressed rebels, led by a former army officer, to lay down their weapons before disarming gangs loyal to the former president.
The bullets fired by gunmen believed to be supporters of the former president also killed a Spanish television journalist, seen in the back seat of this ambulance. He was shot trying to get help for an injured American photographer, seen here in a dark T-shirt.
Another dark day for Haiti, another demonstration of how difficult it will be to achieve peace in this country.
Lucia Newman, CNN, Port-au-Prince.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: Aristide, speaking from the Central African Republic, also said today that he remained his country's democratically-elected president, and he repeated his claim that he had been -- quote -- "politically abducted" by the U.S. military.
M. O'BRIEN: And it's time now for "The Cafferty File." John Kerry had harsh things to say about the Bush handling of the Haiti situation, but this is -- foreign policy, I guess, is going to be the big -- the push.
CAFFERTY: Well, it will probably be the second-biggest issue after the economy.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: Because I think ultimately in a presidential election, everybody tends to vote the economy. But it's, you know, politics as usual. You sit and criticize what the other guy is doing. And when somebody says, well, what's your idea, then, you know, you have to come up with an answer.
A big day in Iraq. The Governing Council signing an interim constitution there, which could set the groundwork for future elections and eventually a permanent constitution. The United Nations is more involved in the process now; other countries beginning to take a role in Iraq as well. And, of course, as Miles suggested, this will no doubt become a big issue between President Bush and Senator John Kerry, as we get closer to the November election.
Senator Kerry is going to send his own team to Iraq in the next few months to assess the situation. Hey, there's a good idea, Senator. We've only been messing around over there for a long time now, what, over almost a year since the invasion began. You're a member of the U.S. Senate. You ought to have some idea of what's going on in Iraq. But, nevertheless, he's going to send his own people over there.
If you were Senator Kerry, what would you do differently in Iraq? I mean, the politicians can sit on the sidelines and say, they should have done this and they should have done that and we could have done something else. But what's your plan? What are you going to do specifically? So, put yourself in the senator's shoes and get your pencil and write to me. I'm lonely.
S. O'BRIEN: I'm sure that's going to be interesting to hear, not lonely, but I'm sure it's going to be interesting to hear.
CAFFERTY: It might be, yes. I hope so.
S. O'BRIEN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: Otherwise, this is a total loss on a Monday morning to come in here.
M. O'BRIEN: A big waste of time.
S. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Jack. Appreciate that.
CAFFERTY: (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
S. O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, oh, for millions of fans, it was like a family reunion last night as "The Sopranos" got back to business. Our "90-Second Pop" panelists have their reviews coming up. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Advisor Sandy Berger>
Aired March 8, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A new day in Iraq, taking infant steps toward democracy, while candidate Kerry accuses President Bush of stonewalling the Iraqi investigation.
U.S. Marines fire their first shots as gunmen attack anti- Aristide protesters in Haiti.
And "The Passion of the Christ" sets a box office record, and it may see another holiday boost as well.
Those stories ahead and much more on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Soledad O'Brien and Bill Hemmer.
S. O'BRIEN: Good morning. Welcome, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien. Bill Hemmer is off for a couple of days, but Miles O'Brien -- no, he's not my brother -- has been kind enough to join us.
Nice to see you, Miles. Thank you.
M. O'BRIEN: Doing a little skiing? Is that what he's doing?
S. O'BRIEN: Yes, you know, always.
M. O'BRIEN: All right. Well, we're working here.
S. O'BRIEN: That's right, Hemmer. We're working.
Question this morning: Just how far is Martha Stewart going to fall? We're going to hear how her behavior today could affect the severity of her sentence. Also, what Martha Stewart's conviction means for her company, it's employees and her personal fortune as well.
M. O'BRIEN: We'll also hear about the man behind the hunt for Osama bin Laden, Rear Admiral William McCraven (ph). He's been called the smartest Navy S.E.A.L. who ever lived. He literally wrote the book on special operations. He can probably kill you with his bare hands about 12 ways. His former boss at the White House says if anyone can find bin Laden, McCraven (ph) and his team can.
S. O'BRIEN: No question about that.
Jack Cafferty back from wisdom teeth surgery. JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, just a little encounter with the dentist on Friday, but we'll survive. Its not the worst thing in the world.
S. O'BRIEN: OK.
CAFFERTY: Coming up a little later, we're going to take a look at one of the major issues in the upcoming presidential election and have the illustrious viewers of this here TV program resolve it so the candidates don't have to fool with it. They can devote themselves to other stuff.
S. O'BRIEN: That's so helpful of you, as you always are.
CAFFERTY: I'm just here to serve.
S. O'BRIEN: Right, Jack.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: So, you could have done the show; instead, you got your wisdom teeth out, is that what happened?
CAFFERTY: I had one of them pulled.
S. O'BRIEN: He did the show and...
CAFFERTY: Yes, yes.
M. O'BRIEN: Yikes! All right.
CAFFERTY: I'm still trying to decide which was more painful.
S. O'BRIEN: The worst option.
CAFFERTY: The verdict is out, though.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, we'll see you a little bit later.
CAFFERTY: OK.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's check the news, shall we?
Haiti's ousted president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, is calling for peace in Haiti. His comments come at the -- as at least four people were shot and killed during a massive demonstration in Port-au-Prince yesterday. Aristide supporters opened fire on some 1,000 protesters. U.S. Marines guarding the national palace returned the fire. It's the first time they've had to shoot since they arrived in Haiti last week.
The search for three people, including a child, is resuming this morning after a ferry accident in Baltimore over the weekend. The water taxi was carrying 25 people when it capsized Saturday in a very sudden storm. Twenty-one survived. One of the 22 people rescued died later in the hospital. Officials say weather and the condition and operation of the boat are being considered as possible causes of that accident. The probe into possible cadaver thefts at the University of California is expanding. Henry Reid (ph), director of UCLA's Willed Body Program, was arrested over the weekend. He has been linked to the illegal sale of bodies and body parts that were donated to the university for medical research. The university says more arrests are possible.
In Utah, a survival exercise became the real thing for 39 Boy Scouts and their leaders after an avalanche. A wall of snow collapsed, trapping the group in caves they had made during their weekend trip. Scout leaders nearby heard the avalanche. They called for help. Rescue workers recovered the group unharmed. How is that for a merit badge?
In Kentucky, state police are searching for a missing woman after flash flooding left a 4-year-old girl and one man dead. The body of the 4-year-old was found yesterday morning. She had been riding in a pickup truck with her father when high water swept the vehicle away. The father survived.
S. O'BRIEN: What a terrible story there. Isn't it terrible?
M. O'BRIEN: Oh, it's an awful tragedy. You got it.
S. O'BRIEN: First check of the forecast now.
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Iraq was sent on a new path towards self-rule this morning as members of the Iraqi Governing Council signed an interim constitution.
Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf is at the convention center, where the signing took place. She joins us this morning with the very latest.
Jane -- good morning.
JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Good morning, Soledad.
Well, it took a rehearsal or two, but today it finally happened. The 25 members of the Governing Council showed up. They all came. They sat down, and one by one they picked up the gold pens and signed that document. And that document is a constitution that is unprecedented, not just in this region, but in many other countries. Twenty-five pages with the bill of rights for all Iraqis. Democratic institutions, including a separate judiciary, a supreme court. A target of 25 percent women elected when there are general elections.
But this document -- this is just a start. And as they were signing it, just before, explosions heard in the neighborhood near here -- an indication that a lot of the hard work might still be ahead -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Jane, the latest delay, of course, I'm curious to know if that's an indication of just how difficult it is at the end of the day going to be to bring democracy into Iraq. I mean, they have huge obstacles ahead.
ARRAF: It's probably a really tough call anywhere. But I think we have to remember that what's being created here is essentially new. They have had in the past some democratic institutions, but what they're doing is creating a country that basically recognizes the rights of very different groups with very different agendas.
Now, it was interesting that the desk that they signed this on belonged to King Faisal I, who was actually a king propped up by the British. Now, that was a very different Iraq. It was a country that came into being with the help of foreign powers, not to make any similarities here. But essentially, what they are trying to do is learn how to govern themselves, and that's going to be a tough process. But they say that today they are on that road -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Jane Arraf for us this morning. Jane, thanks a lot.
Iraq is at the center of the latest campaign rhetoric as well. Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, calls the Bush foreign policy reckless and arrogant. Senator Kerry may send an assessment team to Iraq to help formulate his Iraq policy, and he's also leaving open the possibility of making the trip himself.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I haven't ruled it out. I'm just not -- it's not on a front burner right now, and I'd prefer for the moment to get some assessments. If I find from those assessments that there may be a real reason to go further, I could follow up on it. I haven't ruled out the potential of any foreign travel at this point.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
S. O'BRIEN: Joining us this morning from Washington, D.C. to talk a little bit more about Senator Kerry's planned fact-finding mission in Iraq is former National Security Adviser Sandy Berger.
Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for being with us.
SANDY BERGER, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR: Good morning, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Why exactly would Senator Kerry want to send his own fact-finding mission into Iraq?
BERGER: Well, obviously Iraq is going to be a very important issue in the campaign going forward, and, indeed, no one expects this issue to be solved by January 20, 2005. And if Senator Kerry is elected president, it's going to be an issue he faces squarely in the eye from day one. So, I think it's very important.
We've had a lot of back and forth in the administration about what's really going on in Iraq. I think it's very important that he get his own people on the ground and take their own assessment. I think he wants to be ready. I think he wants to be realistic. And I think he wants to be responsible, as he goes forward, talking about Iraq. And putting his own people on the ground to do their own assessment I think is the prudent and wise step.
S. O'BRIEN: Let's talk a little bit about some of the risks to Senator Kerry. There is a risk, and he admitted it himself, that you could be seen as politicizing an issue in an election year. How big of a problem do you think this is?
BERGER: I don't think that's a problem at all. I mean, we've had delegations go from the Congress and from others to take a look for themselves in Iraq. This is an extraordinarily important issue in this campaign. And we've had, as I say, lots of back and forth in this administration about how things are going. I think the American people would expect Senator Kerry to get his own assessment here from his own people that he trusts.
S. O'BRIEN: White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett had this to say. He said "Kerry's mission to finally understand what's happening in Iraq reveals once again that his attacks are based on politics, not on facts."
And there are certainly some who would say, oh, now a fact- finding mission is being considered when Senator Kerry has long been criticizing President Bush on what's been going on in Iraq.
BERGER: Well, you know, facts here from the administration have been hard to get your hands around. We had weapons of mass destruction. We didn't have weapons of mass the destruction. We had a link between Saddam Hussein and terrorists. We didn't have a link between Saddam Hussein and terrorists.
So, the so-called facts that we've gotten from the administration all through this process have been ultimately proved to be very often inaccurate. So, I think under those circumstances, it's perfectly appropriate and prudent to send your own people there to assess the situation.
S. O'BRIEN: Any concern, though, by sending his own team he's, to some degree, undermining President Bush?
BERGER: No, I don't think so at all. Things will go forward. We just saw today a signing of a constitution. I think for Senator Kerry, either himself or through his surrogates, to go talk to our military people, to go talk to our civilian people, to talk to the Iraqi people, to get a read as to where we are in this very difficult process I think will inform the campaign, elevate the debate, and I think inform a Kerry presidency, if he is elected.
S. O'BRIEN: Former National Security Adviser Sandy Berger joining us this morning. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks.
BERGER: Good to see you, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Thanks -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Attorney General John Ashcroft is still in a Washington hospital this morning, four days after being admitted for severe gallstone pancreatitis. The 61-year-old Ashcroft had been in the intensive care unit as of Saturday. A Justice Department spokesman would not comment on Ashcroft's condition. However, a hospital spokesman said the hospital and the Justice Department Web sites would provide updates, but no report has been posted since Ashcroft was admitted on Thursday.
Mel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ" was tops in movie ticket sales for a second straight weekend. The controversial film about the last hours in the life of Jesus took in about $51.5 million. The film's distributor estimates that the film has earned 212 million since its release on Ash Wednesday.
Our "90-Second Pop" panel will have much more box office news a little later this hour.
S. O'BRIEN: And still to come this morning, convicted on all counts. Just how much time will Martha Stewart serve? Legal analysis just ahead from Jeff Toobin, who was in the courtroom for that verdict.
M. O'BRIEN: And after discovering that Mars was once a watery place, what will we learn next from the rovers? Little green men, perhaps? We'll look at what work is left to be done on the Red Planet.
S. O'BRIEN: And the family is back. The fifth season of "The Sopranos" begins. We're going to check in with our own mob, the "90- Second Pop" panelists, ahead, as AMERICAN MORNING continues.
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M. O'BRIEN: Martha Stewart has a date with her probation officer today. Oh, to be a fly on the wall.
The meeting is part of a pre-sentencing phase after her conviction Friday for conspiracy, obstruction of justice and lying to federal investigators. Stewart's lawyers plan to appeal, of course.
Joining us now with his thoughts on that and what kind of time Stewart might ultimately serve, Jeff Toobin.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning.
M. O'BRIEN: Our legal pooh-bah (ph) here. Pooh-by (ph) is correct.
TOOBIN: Senior pooh-bah (ph).
M. O'BRIEN: Senior pooh-bah (ph).
TOOBIN: That's right.
M. O'BRIEN: First of all, tell us about this meeting today. What are they going to discuss? Is she going to have to wear one of those ankle bracelets, and what color? TOOBIN: If she's lucky, she'll wear an ankle bracelet.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
TOOBIN: Basically, what this is, is this the first step towards preparing the pre-sentence investigation, the pre-sentence report, which will determine her federal sentencing guidelines, which is literally a number that she'll get, which will, in turn, determine the sentencing range, the months in prison she will serve in prison.
M. O'BRIEN: A number, literally?
TOOBIN: Absolutely. She might get an 8. She might get a 10. She might get a 12. The higher, the worse for her.
M. O'BRIEN: And this is based on attitude or what?
TOOBIN: Well, based on a lot of things. There's a base offense level for each crime that she's committed of -- that she committed. Then there are enhancements and reductions. You get an enhancement if you abused a position of trust. You get an enhancement if you engaged in more than minimal planning. You get a reduction if you accept responsibility for your crimes. It's going to be the probation department's job to determine whether those characterizations apply, and what -- you know, and what's her ultimate number.
M. O'BRIEN: And we should point out that in the federal system there are strict formulas that the judges are bound to stick to, correct?
TOOBIN: That's right. That's why, you know, when people say five years per count, a 20-year maximum, that's really irrelevant. That is not the determining factor. What determines your sentence in federal court is the sentencing guidelines, which the judge is pretty much bound to follow closely.
M. O'BRIEN: And that can be difficult at times in cases that just don't go outside the norm, right?
TOOBIN: That's right. And it's often very contentious, and the judge often has to decide ultimately which sentencing guidelines apply. For example, acceptance of responsibility, that's always a big issue. Did the person accept responsibility for her crimes?
Remember, Martha Stewart put on her Web site on Friday, I did nothing wrong. Then hours later took it down.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
TOOBIN: That's really because of the sentencing guidelines, because if she's got something on her Web site saying I did nothing wrong, she'll never get those two points off for acceptance of responsibility.
M. O'BRIEN: The points are there or taken off or whatever.
TOOBIN: Exactly.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, now the chance of an appeal here, everything that I've read about Judge Cedarbaum was she ran a good courtroom, and she threw out the charge that was the most outrageous one, I guess, if you put it that way. So, the chances of getting an appeal when I think less than 10 percent of cases in these courts are actually overturned on appeal.
TOOBIN: Less than 10 percent of all cases, and this one in particular I would say the chances are even much less than that, because, as you point out, a lot of the big rulings in this case went in favor of the defense -- the securities fraud count being thrown out. There was certain telephone records that the defense wanted kept out. They were kept out. I just think she's got a very little shot on appeal.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, senior pooh-bah (ph), Jeff Toobin.
TOOBIN: That's right.
M. O'BRIEN: Thank you very much -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Well, just how is the guilty verdict affecting Martha Stewart's company, and what does the future look like?
Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business."
Good morning.
SERWER: Good morning to you.
S. O'BRIEN: We spoke a little bit about this on Friday evening.
SERWER: Right.
S. O'BRIEN: So, let's start this morning with the stock and where everybody thinks it's going to go.
SERWER: Yes. Well, that's probably downwards. In pre-market trading, it's trading below $10 now. You may remember on Friday a wild ride. The stock went from 13 and change. Investors guessing it was going to be a positive verdict. Oops! It got up to $17. You can see there the fat blue line. Then the verdict came out. The stock plunged to under $11. It closed at 10.80, down 23 percent on the day. Martha Stewart got a big hit, because she owns 61 percent of the stock. And, as I said, it's probably going down to single digits.
S. O'BRIEN: And, of course, many people are asking not only about the stock and what's happening day to day, but also the company in the big picture, what's going to happen there.
SERWER: Yes. It really was the talk of the town yesterday and over the weekend. Everyone wanted to talk about what's happening on Madison Avenue. The company says that it's going to soldier on basically, releasing a statement saying they're distressed, but they're going to move ahead. Let's take a look a little bit at Martha Stewart, the company. Five hundred employees work there. They've obviously got all kinds of publishing, television, merchandising and Internet. Television, we should point out, Viacom is dropping the show from the CBS stations. So, that is going to be a blow. They're suggesting perhaps that merchandising could hold up better than, say, the publishing. But it's really a psychological thing, Soledad. Will consumers buy the magazine, watch the shows and use her products or not?
S. O'BRIEN: And when you say psychological, it means we really won't know until everybody kind of votes with their dollars.
SERWER: I think that's right. The board, by the way, is going to be meeting today and tomorrow, deciding what to do. It's unclear whether or not she can remain on the board of the company. Remember, she is no longer CEO. I would say the likelihood of that is probably not good.
And then what does the company do? Do they sell? Do they change the name of the company? Or do they just look to try to soldier on and keep moving ahead?
One thing we know they're going to do is try to distance some of the products from her name. They've already done that with the new magazine. It's called "Everyday Food." And you can see here some of the other things -- the pet keeping, organizing good things and that sort of thing as well.
S. O'BRIEN: I'm sure a lot of it will depend, too, on exactly how much time in the end she does get.
SERWER: I think that's right. I really don't think that Martha is over. I think that she'll be able to resuscitate herself and her career down the road. It's going to take time.
TOOBIN: Isn't it true that...
SERWER: What do you think, Jeff?
TOOBIN: Well, just the thing that's so sad about this is that the products are good.
SERWER: They are good.
TOOBIN: The products at KMart are reasonably priced. They're good products. "Martha Stewart Living Magazine," which has nothing to do with insider trading...
S. O'BRIEN: A great magazine.
SERWER: Right.
TOOBIN: ... is a wonderful magazine. And do you think it can -- I mean, don't you think the market maybe has discounted this at this point?
SERWER: I think that...
TOOBIN: That everybody knows she's in trouble -- she's been in trouble for a year -- that there won't be that much of a difference?
SERWER: I think it could happen. A lot of people are actually starting to feel sorry for her. You know, there might be a backlash. I mean, you know, you never know. I think you're right.
S. O'BRIEN: It's just going to depend on if she gets six months or if she five years. I have to imagine that's going to make a difference.
SERWER: Right.
M. O'BRIEN: There's an awful lot of...
S. O'BRIEN: We're going to...
M. O'BRIEN: I'm sorry. Go ahead.
S. O'BRIEN: Oh, I was just going to go to commercial, but you go ahead.
M. O'BRIEN: There are a lot of loyal people to Martha. We'll just leave it at that.
S. O'BRIEN: I would agree.
SERWER: Yes.
S. O'BRIEN: All right. Still to come this morning, cheering and celebration quelled in Haiti after gunfire erupts near the presidential palace. We've got the latest on that just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING. Stay with us, everybody. We're back just after this.
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S. O'BRIEN: Exiled Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide this morning is calling for peace in his strife-ridden country. His appeal comes a day after deadly gunfire erupted during a massive demonstration in Haiti. At least four people were killed at an anti- Aristide demonstration near the presidential palace in Port-au-Prince.
Lucia Newman has more from the Haitian capital this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LUCIA NEWMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One minute, there was cheering and celebration in front of Haiti's presidential palace. The next, it was this. Gunmen armed with pistols and high-powered rifles shot at anti-Aristide demonstrators, while U.S. Marines guarding the palace fired their first shots since arriving in Haiti. Nearby, an unarmed Haitian laid dead in a pool of blood. People in shock, but also angry. The demonstration began peacefully enough with U.S. Marines and French troops joining Haitian police to escort the marches towards the palace.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Aristide needs to go in prison, because he's a criminal. He killed a lot of people in Haiti.
NEWMAN: There were tense moments when those celebrating last week's departure of President Aristide confronted some of his supporters. The Marines, keeping both sides apart, allowing the march to continue.
(on camera): Celebrating Aristide's departure is the easy part. Trying to get this extraordinarily polarized nation to decide on how to move forward is the real challenge.
(voice-over): A challenge that became brutally clear when even the celebration turned violent, with the foreign troops who had escorted them no longer visible.
"Where were the French and American troops when we needed them?" screamed this group.
Others said Marines should never have pressed rebels, led by a former army officer, to lay down their weapons before disarming gangs loyal to the former president.
The bullets fired by gunmen believed to be supporters of the former president also killed a Spanish television journalist, seen in the back seat of this ambulance. He was shot trying to get help for an injured American photographer, seen here in a dark T-shirt.
Another dark day for Haiti, another demonstration of how difficult it will be to achieve peace in this country.
Lucia Newman, CNN, Port-au-Prince.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: Aristide, speaking from the Central African Republic, also said today that he remained his country's democratically-elected president, and he repeated his claim that he had been -- quote -- "politically abducted" by the U.S. military.
M. O'BRIEN: And it's time now for "The Cafferty File." John Kerry had harsh things to say about the Bush handling of the Haiti situation, but this is -- foreign policy, I guess, is going to be the big -- the push.
CAFFERTY: Well, it will probably be the second-biggest issue after the economy.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: Because I think ultimately in a presidential election, everybody tends to vote the economy. But it's, you know, politics as usual. You sit and criticize what the other guy is doing. And when somebody says, well, what's your idea, then, you know, you have to come up with an answer.
A big day in Iraq. The Governing Council signing an interim constitution there, which could set the groundwork for future elections and eventually a permanent constitution. The United Nations is more involved in the process now; other countries beginning to take a role in Iraq as well. And, of course, as Miles suggested, this will no doubt become a big issue between President Bush and Senator John Kerry, as we get closer to the November election.
Senator Kerry is going to send his own team to Iraq in the next few months to assess the situation. Hey, there's a good idea, Senator. We've only been messing around over there for a long time now, what, over almost a year since the invasion began. You're a member of the U.S. Senate. You ought to have some idea of what's going on in Iraq. But, nevertheless, he's going to send his own people over there.
If you were Senator Kerry, what would you do differently in Iraq? I mean, the politicians can sit on the sidelines and say, they should have done this and they should have done that and we could have done something else. But what's your plan? What are you going to do specifically? So, put yourself in the senator's shoes and get your pencil and write to me. I'm lonely.
S. O'BRIEN: I'm sure that's going to be interesting to hear, not lonely, but I'm sure it's going to be interesting to hear.
CAFFERTY: It might be, yes. I hope so.
S. O'BRIEN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: Otherwise, this is a total loss on a Monday morning to come in here.
M. O'BRIEN: A big waste of time.
S. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Jack. Appreciate that.
CAFFERTY: (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
S. O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, oh, for millions of fans, it was like a family reunion last night as "The Sopranos" got back to business. Our "90-Second Pop" panelists have their reviews coming up. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
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Advisor Sandy Berger>
