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Cohen on Political Situation in India

Aired May 18, 2004 - 12:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Well, for more perspective on the political situation in India and a lot of the other headline stories we're following this day, it's time for our weekly segment -- and, really, a close-up a Cohen. William Cohen, that is, the former U.S. secretary of defense, now heads up the Cohen Group, which is an international business consulting firm.
Thanks again for being with us, Mr. Cohen.

WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Pleasure, Jim.

CLANCY: Let's start in Gaza. President Bush has said as -- even as he was addressing APAC, the pro-Israeli lobby group in the U.S., has said that he's seeking clarification from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on just what's happening in Gaza, as the casualties soar, as everyone is criticizing what they are war crimes because of the destruction of homes.

Is the U.S. really going to be able to crack down in an election year, with this president, on Ariel Sharon and tell him to halt?

COHEN: I think it's rather unlikely that they'll be any crackdown at this point. Little action is going to be taken, in my judgment, by either party, either by Senator Kerry, who is running for the presidency, or by President Bush prior to November. I think it's unfortunate, because it's require a U.S. leadership in order to help bring about putting the parties back on the track to the road map. But I frankly don't see much prospect for it at this point.

Secretary Powell did criticize the Israeli government yesterday, but, again, it appears to be somewhat ambiguous now in terms of where the president is as far as his position on Ariel Sharon's policy right now. So I think we're unlikely to see much progress made before November.

CLANCY: I want to turn to India. Just a huge story, a lot of people stunned because Sonia Gandhi decided she wasn't going to seek the post of prime minister. As someone who was born in Italy, perhaps she saw, you know, the writing on the wall there.

What do you think of her move to do that?

COHEN: Well, obviously, she was concerned about the kinds of attacks that might be leveled against her, and whether or not that would impede her ability to form a coalition and to perform the functions of the prime minister. So she listened to an inner voice, as she has said, and decided that it would not be in her interests or that of the country for her to assume that position.

Party leaders, again, asking her to reconsider. But I think she's pretty much made it clear that she is not interested in the job, and for the reasons that she has cited.

CLANCY: If she wanted to keep her family's stature and future -- because she does have sons, of course -- but keep that place, and also, really, to cement her victory, which stunned a lot of people to begin with.

Do you think she made the right decision?

COHEN: Well, only she can make that determination, what's right for her, what's right for her family and what's right for the country.

Because India is a democracy, they will work their way through this, although there's a good deal of confusion and perhaps even chaos right now, which will have an impact on the business climate, to be sure, in India. But I'm satisfied that somehow they will work their way through this in the fairly near future.

CLANCY: Well, as New Delhi has its problems, so too does Washington, looking at Iraq. Announcements that more troops are going to be sent in, amid more violence. The president of the Iraqi Governing Council assassinated this week in a suicide car bombing.

More troops -- is that the answer? Will that do it?

COHEN: Well, the key thing that's missing right now in Iraq, and has been missing for some time, is security for the Iraqi people. The insurgents, the elements that have been moving into Iraq, have targeted the infrastructure, the oil pipelines, the power stations, water supplies. They've also targeted the police academy graduates, members of the army and the political leadership.

So it's what the objectives of the insurgents are. So I think it's going to take more troops. I have believed that for some time. And just the notion of sending 4,000 more I don't think will be sufficient in terms of providing the kind of security, and convincing the Iraqi people that we're there to stay. There have been conflicting messages that are being sent, that if the Iraqi government, the interim government should ask us to leave, we'll be willing to leave. And then that's countermannered by someone else.

I think the people are confused, and they're not willing to stand behind the coalition forces until they're satisfied those coalition forces are going to be there to provide the kind of security that will be necessary as this interim government takes shape, until the elections are held next year.

CLANCY: Everybody -- the U.S. military, the Iraqi military and security forces, and the Iraqi people in the streets all are asking -- June 30, what's going to happen? And there is not a clear policy that has been sent down. How much sovereignty are the Iraqis going to get? We haven't heard it from Bremer, we haven't it from the Kerry camp and we haven't heard it from the White House, of course.

What would you do? How much should they have? How much sovereignty should be handed over?

COHEN: I think the person that's going to be most critical to define this will be Mr. Brahimi.

I believe that the United States is anxious to hand this over to the Iraqi people as soon as possible, and to do so through the auspices of the United Nations. So Mr. Brahimi, in terms of how he's going to propose structuring this, I think, will carry incredible weight.

Second person will be Ayatollah al-Sistani. That he, by being the revered religious figure that he is, will carry considerable weight among the Shia population, hopefully to marginalize and to really condemn al-Sadr and what he represents for the future of the Iraqi people.

So Brahimi, Sistani I think are going to be the key -- two key figures in helping to shape what's going to take place after June 30.

CLANCY: What -- clearly, what any defense secretary would want, what Washington certainly wants today, is to see that on that date, June 30, the temperature is turned down, that U.S. troops are no longer in the gun sites, if you will, of an insurrection.

Do you think that can be achieved? What would have to be done?

COHEN: I think several things have to be done.

Number one, there has to be a new U.N. Security Council resolution. I believe that the administration are working very closely with Kofi Annan to help bring that about.

Number two, I believe we have to make an effort to bring NATO into this -- into Iraq and into the formula here. They are currently in Iraq -- into Afghanistan. I believe that there is the potential to have NATO assume some responsibility in Iraq itself. Not in terms of a number -- a large number of troops, but to give it a much greater international flavor, so to speak, as we seek to bring about security.

And so I think, given those two conditions, there will be greater effort, and I think greater persuasive efforts undertaken to persuade the Iraqi people that security will be, in fact, maintained, that the international community will be part of providing that stability and security. And they can then indulge and engage in self-governance, which is ultimately the only way that civility will ever be preserved in Iraq itself.

CLANCY: The view from William Cohen. And, as always, we want to thank the former U.S. defense secretary for being with us.

COHEN: Thank you, Jim.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired May 18, 2004 - 12:35:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Well, for more perspective on the political situation in India and a lot of the other headline stories we're following this day, it's time for our weekly segment -- and, really, a close-up a Cohen. William Cohen, that is, the former U.S. secretary of defense, now heads up the Cohen Group, which is an international business consulting firm.
Thanks again for being with us, Mr. Cohen.

WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Pleasure, Jim.

CLANCY: Let's start in Gaza. President Bush has said as -- even as he was addressing APAC, the pro-Israeli lobby group in the U.S., has said that he's seeking clarification from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on just what's happening in Gaza, as the casualties soar, as everyone is criticizing what they are war crimes because of the destruction of homes.

Is the U.S. really going to be able to crack down in an election year, with this president, on Ariel Sharon and tell him to halt?

COHEN: I think it's rather unlikely that they'll be any crackdown at this point. Little action is going to be taken, in my judgment, by either party, either by Senator Kerry, who is running for the presidency, or by President Bush prior to November. I think it's unfortunate, because it's require a U.S. leadership in order to help bring about putting the parties back on the track to the road map. But I frankly don't see much prospect for it at this point.

Secretary Powell did criticize the Israeli government yesterday, but, again, it appears to be somewhat ambiguous now in terms of where the president is as far as his position on Ariel Sharon's policy right now. So I think we're unlikely to see much progress made before November.

CLANCY: I want to turn to India. Just a huge story, a lot of people stunned because Sonia Gandhi decided she wasn't going to seek the post of prime minister. As someone who was born in Italy, perhaps she saw, you know, the writing on the wall there.

What do you think of her move to do that?

COHEN: Well, obviously, she was concerned about the kinds of attacks that might be leveled against her, and whether or not that would impede her ability to form a coalition and to perform the functions of the prime minister. So she listened to an inner voice, as she has said, and decided that it would not be in her interests or that of the country for her to assume that position.

Party leaders, again, asking her to reconsider. But I think she's pretty much made it clear that she is not interested in the job, and for the reasons that she has cited.

CLANCY: If she wanted to keep her family's stature and future -- because she does have sons, of course -- but keep that place, and also, really, to cement her victory, which stunned a lot of people to begin with.

Do you think she made the right decision?

COHEN: Well, only she can make that determination, what's right for her, what's right for her family and what's right for the country.

Because India is a democracy, they will work their way through this, although there's a good deal of confusion and perhaps even chaos right now, which will have an impact on the business climate, to be sure, in India. But I'm satisfied that somehow they will work their way through this in the fairly near future.

CLANCY: Well, as New Delhi has its problems, so too does Washington, looking at Iraq. Announcements that more troops are going to be sent in, amid more violence. The president of the Iraqi Governing Council assassinated this week in a suicide car bombing.

More troops -- is that the answer? Will that do it?

COHEN: Well, the key thing that's missing right now in Iraq, and has been missing for some time, is security for the Iraqi people. The insurgents, the elements that have been moving into Iraq, have targeted the infrastructure, the oil pipelines, the power stations, water supplies. They've also targeted the police academy graduates, members of the army and the political leadership.

So it's what the objectives of the insurgents are. So I think it's going to take more troops. I have believed that for some time. And just the notion of sending 4,000 more I don't think will be sufficient in terms of providing the kind of security, and convincing the Iraqi people that we're there to stay. There have been conflicting messages that are being sent, that if the Iraqi government, the interim government should ask us to leave, we'll be willing to leave. And then that's countermannered by someone else.

I think the people are confused, and they're not willing to stand behind the coalition forces until they're satisfied those coalition forces are going to be there to provide the kind of security that will be necessary as this interim government takes shape, until the elections are held next year.

CLANCY: Everybody -- the U.S. military, the Iraqi military and security forces, and the Iraqi people in the streets all are asking -- June 30, what's going to happen? And there is not a clear policy that has been sent down. How much sovereignty are the Iraqis going to get? We haven't heard it from Bremer, we haven't it from the Kerry camp and we haven't heard it from the White House, of course.

What would you do? How much should they have? How much sovereignty should be handed over?

COHEN: I think the person that's going to be most critical to define this will be Mr. Brahimi.

I believe that the United States is anxious to hand this over to the Iraqi people as soon as possible, and to do so through the auspices of the United Nations. So Mr. Brahimi, in terms of how he's going to propose structuring this, I think, will carry incredible weight.

Second person will be Ayatollah al-Sistani. That he, by being the revered religious figure that he is, will carry considerable weight among the Shia population, hopefully to marginalize and to really condemn al-Sadr and what he represents for the future of the Iraqi people.

So Brahimi, Sistani I think are going to be the key -- two key figures in helping to shape what's going to take place after June 30.

CLANCY: What -- clearly, what any defense secretary would want, what Washington certainly wants today, is to see that on that date, June 30, the temperature is turned down, that U.S. troops are no longer in the gun sites, if you will, of an insurrection.

Do you think that can be achieved? What would have to be done?

COHEN: I think several things have to be done.

Number one, there has to be a new U.N. Security Council resolution. I believe that the administration are working very closely with Kofi Annan to help bring that about.

Number two, I believe we have to make an effort to bring NATO into this -- into Iraq and into the formula here. They are currently in Iraq -- into Afghanistan. I believe that there is the potential to have NATO assume some responsibility in Iraq itself. Not in terms of a number -- a large number of troops, but to give it a much greater international flavor, so to speak, as we seek to bring about security.

And so I think, given those two conditions, there will be greater effort, and I think greater persuasive efforts undertaken to persuade the Iraqi people that security will be, in fact, maintained, that the international community will be part of providing that stability and security. And they can then indulge and engage in self-governance, which is ultimately the only way that civility will ever be preserved in Iraq itself.

CLANCY: The view from William Cohen. And, as always, we want to thank the former U.S. defense secretary for being with us.

COHEN: Thank you, Jim.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com