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American Morning
Explosion in Green Zone; Announcement of New Interim Iraqi Government
Aired June 01, 2004 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning.
At this hour, the next leaders of Iraq step forward in a vigorous day of politics. Some surprises for the U.S. along the way.
Months of waiting and debating now over -- the Scott Peterson double murder trial begins this morning.
And the fury of spring weather now putting another state underwater on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
HEMMER: Welcome, everybody.
Eight o'clock here in New York on a Tuesday.
We hope you had a good holiday weekend.
Heidi Collins working for Soledad today -- welcome again here to New York.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you.
HEMMER: Some of the other stories we'll watch this hour, a huge day for the future of Iraq. At this hour, the next president has been named in Baghdad. The Iraqi Governing Council saying it is now dissolving itself. It will cease to exist immediately, it says, a full month before the transfer of power at the end of June. We'll find out what all this means to the U.S. in a few moments. Also live to Baghdad for the ceremony taking place there.
COLLINS: All right, also, President Bush and Senator Kerry are fighting like crazy for a small sliver of the voting population, the so-called undecideds. Jeff Greenfield will join us in just a few minutes to talk about who has the advantage in the key battleground states.
HEMMER: Also, the other Jeff is with us, too, this hour. The unlikely case of a man cleared of murder because of the hit TV series "Curb Your Enthusiasm." A true story. Jeff Toobin stops by to explain it in a moment here.
COLLINS: It's a great story.
All right, Jack Cafferty joining us now, as well.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
Coming up in the Cafferty File in a little less than an hour, Britney Spears is going to do a concert tour in China. And don't you know that has the government shorts in a giant knot over there? We'll tell you about that.
And how to know if you suffer from cicada envy. That's all I have on Tuesday.
HEMMER: I like that. Seventeen years. They just hang out there in the dirt.
COLLINS: Wow!
CAFFERTY: And somehow it's like if you don't have a cicada, then you have cicada envy.
COLLINS: I guess so.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.
We want to get to the breaking news and the developing story out of Baghdad at this moment.
The interim Iraqi government, which takes power at the end of the month, is no longer just a list of unfilled positions. It took some steps toward that later -- earlier, rather, this morning, with the naming of an interim president and a cabinet. As you may know by now, a Shiite Muslim, Iyad Allawi, was named last Friday to be the interim prime minister. That's the top post in the new government.
Just this morning, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer was selected to be the interim president. Al-Yawer is a Sunni Muslim. He accepted the post after the American choice, Adnan Pachachi, turned that down. We are awaiting the introduction ceremony to start in Baghdad. And while we wait, more from Harris Whitbeck, who is also in the green zone.
That's where we find him today -- Harris, good afternoon there.
HARRIS WHITBECK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Bill.
As you say, the ceremony marking the end of the Iraqi Governing Council, the start of what is being called a transitional period until sovereignty is restored on June 30, is about to begin here in the green zone.
As you said, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, the new interim president of Iraq. Present here also, U.S. Administrator Paul Bremer; members of the Iraqi Governing Council and members of the new interim cabinet. That, again, will start this transitional phase until they formally take office next June 30.
Now, this day has been marred by violence. There was a powerful car bomb that went off outside the headquarters of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the active political parties here. We understand at least two people were killed and more than 20 were injured.
Security extremely tight in this area of the green zone. Again, the fear is that there might be more violence that could mar what is being billed as an historic day -- Bill.
HEMMER: Harris Whitbeck, thanks, reporting on the latest out of Baghdad.
There is awful, a lot of stories to cover from the Iraqi capital today. Awaiting on more. Once the ceremony begins, we'll get you there live there in Baghdad.
In the meantime, though, back in this country to politics. And to use a baseball analogy, President Bush and Senator John Kerry have been campaigning like it's the seventh game of the World Series already. It's not mid-October. It's the 1st of June. And if the polls are to be believed, less than five percent, and perhaps as little as two percent of voters are actually undecided.
CNN's senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, with us now to talk about the current political terrain and what it could mean for November.
Good morning to you -- Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello.
HEMMER: So the polls say most people have their minds made up.
GREENFIELD: Yes. I agree. That's what they say. And here again is reason number 650 not to take polls as received wisdom. It's pretty clear right now the presidential race is very close. It's been so for months. And to a large extent, that's pretty much, by the way, where we found the country back in 2000, divided not just nationally, but in nearly a third of the states where the margin was five percent or less.
There were states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Iowa and, oh, yes, Florida, where it was one percent or less. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen.
HEMMER: Yes, but they also say this is a close race. And they're comparing it already to November of 2000.
What does it say to you if the majority of people do not have their minds made up, if the polls are to be believed?
GREENFIELD: No, but they do have their minds made up. But it's, what it -- it tells us that this is a very intensely fought race, but it doesn't tell you in any way that it's a predictive piece of information about November.
Here's the best example, or a couple of them. You know back in 1948, the race was so well decided that six weeks before the election, the pollsters stopped polling. That's how they missed the Truman situation. People said that's it, we're going to vote for Dewey.
But let's move it up a little bit. Back in 1980, the race between President Carter and Jimmy -- and Ronald Reagan -- was very close very late. Look at those numbers from October 26, on the eve of the one debate, a dead heat. It wasn't until that one face-to-face debate between Carter and Reagan that voters felt comfortable following their gut, which was to replace Carter. There were polls that showed it tight even after that.
And in 1992, President Bush and Clinton were very close at the end, but on election day, Clinton won by five million votes in an electoral landslide.
So there's a dynamic that can happen where people whose minds are made up get unmade.
HEMMER: Yes, and that last explanation tells us voter turnout is so critical come the 2nd of November.
What is the dynamic, do you believe, that can make this closer?
GREENFIELD: Well, allow me to bend the question and offer my suggestion on what would make it less close. It can't be any closer in the polls, but that's the point.
Here's the blindingly obvious one, since we work in television -- events. There can be things happening that will change people's perception of how well the president's done, which is always a key in an incumbent event. There are stories, there's information we may not know yet that could change our minds. There's a book by Kitty Kelly on the Bushes coming out in September that supposedly we're going to spend a lot of time talking about.
We may learn stuff about Kerry we don't know. They may register a whole bunch of new voters that can change the whole dynamic.
But I think the key to this is John Kerry, because he is the unknown. If voters in November still say what they say now, that they're thinking about, seriously, about getting a new president, then a successful Kerry campaign, very much including those debates, could push a lot of voters in his direction, including voters who now say nah, I don't think so.
And by contrast, if Kerry stumbles on the campaign, a lot of voters who are basically anti-Bush are going to say, you know, we just can't take the risk. I've changed my mind and we're going to keep this guy even though I'm not crazy about him, because Kerry doesn't have presidential quality.
Now, one lesson, if history is any guide, undecided voters tend to break away from an incumbent. That's just a general truth about politics. The only endangered presidential incumbents who came back late were Harry Truman and Jerry Ford in 1976, who almost caught Jimmy Carter at the end.
The problem, Bill, is I'm just not sure history is going to be a very reliable guide this time out. But just once again, I know what the numbers say now. But anybody showing up to vote now is going to wait a very long time at that school lunch room, because there ain't any machines there yet.
HEMMER: Very true. And ultimately we have to see how John Kerry does as a day to day candidate come August, September, October. We saw how good he was in Iowa at that point, when his back was against the wall.
GREENFIELD: Yes. We also saw him slip. I think those debates are, you know, are, as usual, or often now, they become institutionalized. They're just critical in seeing these guys face- to-face and voters go I like that guy. I don't trust that guy. I don't think he knows what he's talking about.
HEMMER: The other factor out there is how do Americans feel about Iraq. Do they think it's a noble cause or a lost cause? And that's something they'll decide in November.
GREENFIELD: Yes, well, we're going to hear more about that, I guess, in just a minute or two.
HEMMER: OK, thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: All right.
HEMMER: Indeed, you are right.
GREENFIELD: Thank you.
HEMMER: Back to Heidi now across the room.
COLLINS: The storms that tore through the Midwest have continued eastward, leaving more damage in their wake now. In West Virginia, heavy rain caused widespread flooding yesterday, forcing residents out of their homes and prompting a state of emergency in several counties.
Meanwhile, the cleanup from Sunday's tornadoes continues in the Midwest.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BATH MARSHALL, MARENGO, INDIANA RESIDENT: Most of our furniture we kept and I mean it was fine. Most of our little girl's stuff, though, was lost. I mean there isn't much that we could save, because it all blew out the back of the house.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: A tornado destroyed dozens of homes and killed one person in Marengo, Indiana over the weekend. And in Kentucky, twisters and thunderstorms caused flash flooding and ravaged the north-central part of the state.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: A man's life hung in the balance and all that saved him was a sitcom.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM "CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM," COURTESY HBO)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To tell you the truth, what I'd really like to do is I want to go to Dodgers Stadium and I want to go to the game and I'll pay you for your time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: A young man was arrested last year, accused of killing a woman, a witness who had testified about a pair of other murders. Juan Catalan insisted that he was innocent, but he couldn't really prove it. So, he got some unlikely help from the creator of the HBO hit "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin writes about the case in this week's "New Yorker" magazine.
He's here now to explain.
OK, first of all, set this up a little bit better for us. We just saw some video from the actual show. And in that video is a very important face in this case.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: See it's really a very straightforward story. Juan Catalan goes to his lawyers and said look, at the time of the murder, I wasn't at the murder scene, I was at the ballgame. So his lawyer goes and finds various tapes of what goes on at the ball game. He goes to the Dodger Vision tapes. He goes to Fox Sports and he can't find his client's face in the crowd.
Finally, he hears that Larry David is shooting "Curb Your Enthusiasm" that day at the ball park. So he subpoenas Larry David's company and gets all the footage that they shot.
COLLINS: A great episode, by the way. I saw it.
TOOBIN: We agree on that, I know.
COLLINS: Yes, yes.
TOOBIN: It's a great episode, where he gets the hooker to go with him to the ball park.
COLLINS: Exactly.
TOOBIN: So he -- anyway, so he goes and he gets the outtakes as well as the footage that winds up on the air. You can see it on -- the guy is not broadcast on the air. He was left on the cutting room floor.
COLLINS: Oh, I see. OK.
TOOBIN: But amazingly enough, he is in the footage that Larry David shot at the ball park.
COLLINS: Yes, they said it was right when he was -- when Larry David was walking up the steps and you can see him.
TOOBIN: Walking down the aisle and you could see him. And there they are in the editing room, and Larry David happens to be standing right there when the lawyer sees his client and he jumps up and he says, "There he is! I don't believe it!" And the video that they shot at the ball game has a time code on it for the time of day.
COLLINS: Right. Of course.
TOOBIN: So he was able to take that to the judge. He used that as his alibi. The judge dismissed all the charges. This guy, Juan Catalan, was looking at a death penalty case and because of Larry David's "Curb Your Enthusiasm," he's a free man today.
COLLINS: He's a free man because of Larry David.
Larry David, I think, what did he say, "This is one positive thing I've done in my life."
TOOBIN: The whole thing sort of sounds like an episode of "Curb Your Enthusiasm," though it is real life. And Larry David told me, he said, "You know, I've finally done one good thing in my life, albeit inadvertently," which is a very much a Larry David remark.
COLLINS: Right. Interesting.
All right, Jeffrey Toobin, thanks so much for that.
TOOBIN: It's a fun story.
COLLINS: We want to head back over to Bill.
HEMMER: Heidi, thanks.
Watching the picture now from Baghdad. The Iraqi Governing Council a short time ago saying they will now dissolve itself and will cease to exist after the interim government was put in place and made public today. The last of those major pieces, the new president, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, who took that position after the U.S. backed Adnan Pachachi turned down that position. Heavily fortified, was Pachachi, by the U.S., and Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy doing the bulk of the work right now to put these gentlemen in place.
At this point, we know this, Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy, will be speaking in a moment here. In addition to that, we will hear from the new president; also, the new prime minister, Iyad Allawi, who was officially announced last Friday at the end of last week.
As we watch that screen, Walter Slocombe, a former adviser on national security to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, back with us to talk about just the makeup of these gentlemen and what they mean to the Iraqi people.
At the outset, Mr. Slocombe, do you believe the Iraqi people will accept this group now being put forward? WALTER SLOCOMBE, FORMER COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY ADVISER: Well, we'll find out in a couple of months. But they do represent most of the active political factions in the country and it's significant that in the largely figurehead job of president, you've got a prominent traditional Sunni leader, but whose tribe also includes a lot of Shias.
HEMMER: Yes. Adnan Pachachi, we talked last hour, turned down the position. He was backed by the U.S. He was backed by Brahimi.
Why does he not take this job?
SLOCOMBE: Well, we'll find out in time. I think it's probably a combination of his age and the fact that he knew that he didn't have the support of the central political forces in the country and didn't want it under those conditions.
His attraction was that he was supposedly a unifying figure. If he's not going to be a unifying figure, it's kind of pointless.
HEMMER: What do you make of the Governing Council's decision that was announced just in the past hour to effectively cease and desist, to end itself and to end any of its involvement? Your reaction to that means what?
SLOCOMBE: Well, it's certainly not something that was part of the original plan, but it makes sense, because otherwise you'd have the Governing Council kind of hanging on for another month while the occupation will continue. This arrangement means that the Iraqi authorities with whom the Coalition Provisional Authority and the U.N. will deal will be the people who will take over sovereignty on July 30. And, of course, a lot of them are the same people and they're certainly the same political forces.
HEMMER: What does it tell you -- first, to our viewers, the Arabic speaking members are now at the podium here and as soon as we get the English translation, we'll pump in the microphone and let you listen in, as well.
What does it tell you, Mr. Slocombe, about the growing pains of democracy this country has felt now for a year, that Pachachi would not take that position, that a number of members of the Council already targeted as assassinations? What does it say to you about the process right now in Iraq...
SLOCOMBE: I think we...
HEMMER: ... that we're all watching unfold?
SLOCOMBE: I'm sorry. I think we have to expect that in the course of the next month, there will be assassination attempts, there will be efforts to upset the process in many ways, because whatever the majority of the Iraqi people want and don't want, there are people in Iraq who are desperately determined to stop this from happening.
I continue to believe that most Iraqis want this to succeed. They want the occupation to end. They want a government that they regard as representative and legitimate. And they certainly don't want to go back to the old system.
HEMMER: What do you believe are the consequences if the man the U.S. wants in that position does not get that nod, knowing that the U.S. controls so much of what's happening in Iraq, what are the consequences for that decision?
SLOCOMBE: I think you're making too much of this "the man the Americans wanted." We'll see as this story develops. But I think the fact is the purpose of this whole enterprise with the interim government is to have a government that Iraqis accept, not Americans, not the U.N., not the French, not even the television media. And picking people who have support in the country is the key to that. They won't always do things we want. But one of the things we have to accept is that a sovereign country does things that we don't like, even though basically we're working together toward the same goal.
HEMMER: As the prayer continues there in Baghdad, I'm curious to get your reaction to the following statement here. Many have suggested it does not matter so much what happens in June, but actually what happens after that, the 1st of July. And then you move into August and September.
Your reaction to that?
SLOCOMBE: Well, I think it is certainly the case that there will be a serious security problem for months to come. And it'll take continued effort by the American and the other coalition military forces and the effort to build up the Iraqi security forces. But a key part of that is a government that the Iraqis think is really their government. And we'll have to see whether this effort works.
It has the difficulty that it's not elected. Its main function, in some sense, is to hold elections, to oversee the holding of elections at the end of this year or the very beginning of next year.
But one of the real questions will be whether it stays committed to the process of new elections, rather than trying to perpetuate itself in power.
HEMMER: As the prayer continues there, Lakhdar Brahimi expected to speak at any moment, the U.N. envoy. The new president, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, also expected to speak, and the prime minister, Iyad Allawi. We should hear from him in a matter of moments, too -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Mr. Slocombe, let me ask you a quick question.
Heidi Collins here sitting next to Bill Hemmer.
I'm wondering about the IGC, the Iraqi Governing Council.
How much of a surprise is it that the IGC decided to dissolve itself so quickly?
SLOCOMBE: Well, it's a surprise in the sense that it wasn't part of the original plan. But like I said, it makes sense. It means that there is a transitional period now while the new government, the new ministers can get themselves ready to take over full sovereignty on July 1. The Governing Council as an institution has never been wildly popular in Iraq, although it also represents most of the major political forces. Those political forces and, indeed, many of the individual leaders, will be represented in the new government, including the new president, the new prime minister -- most of the senior, most of the senior ministers will either be in the Governing Council or will be represented with forces that are in the Governing Council.
HEMMER: Also with the backdrop here, we should mention the violence that occurred a short time ago, the car bomb that exploded right near the green zone. That backdrop, again, continues, the backdrop of violence, though, as we watch this ceremony here in Baghdad.
We'll get you there live once we get the translation up and we move forward with what's happening in there in Baghdad.
Get a break here.
Back in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
COMMERCIAL
HEMMER: Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer there standing there in the turban, just sitting down now and taking his seat after the introduction. And we'll get you there when the speakers begin, live in Baghdad, another step taken today for the Iraqi Governing Council, dissolving itself in the past hour, as the process of democracy starts to take another step forward.
It has been a slow and painful process. We'll get you back there live in Baghdad as that ceremony continues -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Twenty-four minutes past the hour now.
We want to tell you a little bit more about other news happening today.
Viacom says Mel Karmazin is resigning as president and chief operating officer. Word just coming in now to CNN about this. Andy Serwer is tracking it, and, of course, we'll have more on it in just a few moments.
The trial is Scott Peterson is set to begin today in Redwood City, California. Prosecutors claim Peterson killed his wife Laci and their unborn son in December of 2002. Hundreds of witnesses for both sides are expected to take the stand over the next several months.
Oklahoma bombing conspirator Terry Nichols could face the death penalty. The sentencing phase in his state trial begins today. Jurors convicted Nichols last week in connection with the 1995 bombing, in which 168 people were killed. He was found guilty on all 161 counts of first degree murder. Nichols is already serving a life sentence under a federal conviction.
People hurt in a fire on a monorail train in Seattle are recuperating this morning after the Memorial Day incident. The train was carrying about 100 passengers to a festival when the fire started. Firefighters rescued everyone from the smoke filled cars. Nine people, including a firefighter, were taken to the hospital. Everyone is expected to be OK, though. The cause of the fire still under investigation.
And in Montgomery, Alabama, the last widow of a Civil War veteran has died. Alberta Martin died yesterday on Memorial Day from complications from a heart attack. She was 97 years old. Martin died nearly 140 years after the Civil War ended. She was married back in the 1920s to Civil War veteran William Jasper Martin.
HEMMER: What a life.
Twenty-five minutes past the hour.
Straight back to Baghdad. Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy, now at the podium. We shall listen here for the English translation.
As soon as we get the translation up and running for you, we'll bring it to you.
A break here.
Back in a moment.
COMMERCIAL
HEMMER: Welcome back, everybody.
Almost 8:30 here in New York.
Heidi in for Soledad O'Brien today -- good morning to you.
COLLINS: Good morning.
HEMMER: Watching this, the events right now in Baghdad unfold before us. The new government being named in a ceremony that. That is Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy, who has worked tirelessly over the past several months trying to get this group together, get them proposed, get them agreed upon. It has not been easy for him; neither for the coalition there. But we'll get you back there live as that ceremony continues today.
The Iraqi Governing Council, very interesting, just today says they will no longer exist.
COLLINS: Right.
HEMMER: A full month ahead of the official transition of power at the end of June, June 30. So the events are unfolding before our eyes. We'll get you back there in a moment.
COLLINS: That is for sure.
Also, barring any last minute delay, the Scott Peterson trial will begin in just a few hours. And it looks like it will be a long one, with possibly hundreds of witnesses called. So we're going to get a report on all of the legal strategies there.
HEMMER: Also, the runaway best selling novel "The Da Vinci Code" has led many people to question some key elements of the New Testament. In a few minutes, we'll look at some of the assertions in the book with the dean of the Yale University Divinity School. He says there are big problems. His views, in a moment here. So we will get to that.
Also today, a big day in California. More than a year after Scott Peterson pleaded not guilty to charges that he murdered his wife Laci and their unborn child, opening statements finally expected to start today.
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Aired June 1, 2004 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning.
At this hour, the next leaders of Iraq step forward in a vigorous day of politics. Some surprises for the U.S. along the way.
Months of waiting and debating now over -- the Scott Peterson double murder trial begins this morning.
And the fury of spring weather now putting another state underwater on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
HEMMER: Welcome, everybody.
Eight o'clock here in New York on a Tuesday.
We hope you had a good holiday weekend.
Heidi Collins working for Soledad today -- welcome again here to New York.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you.
HEMMER: Some of the other stories we'll watch this hour, a huge day for the future of Iraq. At this hour, the next president has been named in Baghdad. The Iraqi Governing Council saying it is now dissolving itself. It will cease to exist immediately, it says, a full month before the transfer of power at the end of June. We'll find out what all this means to the U.S. in a few moments. Also live to Baghdad for the ceremony taking place there.
COLLINS: All right, also, President Bush and Senator Kerry are fighting like crazy for a small sliver of the voting population, the so-called undecideds. Jeff Greenfield will join us in just a few minutes to talk about who has the advantage in the key battleground states.
HEMMER: Also, the other Jeff is with us, too, this hour. The unlikely case of a man cleared of murder because of the hit TV series "Curb Your Enthusiasm." A true story. Jeff Toobin stops by to explain it in a moment here.
COLLINS: It's a great story.
All right, Jack Cafferty joining us now, as well.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
Coming up in the Cafferty File in a little less than an hour, Britney Spears is going to do a concert tour in China. And don't you know that has the government shorts in a giant knot over there? We'll tell you about that.
And how to know if you suffer from cicada envy. That's all I have on Tuesday.
HEMMER: I like that. Seventeen years. They just hang out there in the dirt.
COLLINS: Wow!
CAFFERTY: And somehow it's like if you don't have a cicada, then you have cicada envy.
COLLINS: I guess so.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.
We want to get to the breaking news and the developing story out of Baghdad at this moment.
The interim Iraqi government, which takes power at the end of the month, is no longer just a list of unfilled positions. It took some steps toward that later -- earlier, rather, this morning, with the naming of an interim president and a cabinet. As you may know by now, a Shiite Muslim, Iyad Allawi, was named last Friday to be the interim prime minister. That's the top post in the new government.
Just this morning, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer was selected to be the interim president. Al-Yawer is a Sunni Muslim. He accepted the post after the American choice, Adnan Pachachi, turned that down. We are awaiting the introduction ceremony to start in Baghdad. And while we wait, more from Harris Whitbeck, who is also in the green zone.
That's where we find him today -- Harris, good afternoon there.
HARRIS WHITBECK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Bill.
As you say, the ceremony marking the end of the Iraqi Governing Council, the start of what is being called a transitional period until sovereignty is restored on June 30, is about to begin here in the green zone.
As you said, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, the new interim president of Iraq. Present here also, U.S. Administrator Paul Bremer; members of the Iraqi Governing Council and members of the new interim cabinet. That, again, will start this transitional phase until they formally take office next June 30.
Now, this day has been marred by violence. There was a powerful car bomb that went off outside the headquarters of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the active political parties here. We understand at least two people were killed and more than 20 were injured.
Security extremely tight in this area of the green zone. Again, the fear is that there might be more violence that could mar what is being billed as an historic day -- Bill.
HEMMER: Harris Whitbeck, thanks, reporting on the latest out of Baghdad.
There is awful, a lot of stories to cover from the Iraqi capital today. Awaiting on more. Once the ceremony begins, we'll get you there live there in Baghdad.
In the meantime, though, back in this country to politics. And to use a baseball analogy, President Bush and Senator John Kerry have been campaigning like it's the seventh game of the World Series already. It's not mid-October. It's the 1st of June. And if the polls are to be believed, less than five percent, and perhaps as little as two percent of voters are actually undecided.
CNN's senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, with us now to talk about the current political terrain and what it could mean for November.
Good morning to you -- Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello.
HEMMER: So the polls say most people have their minds made up.
GREENFIELD: Yes. I agree. That's what they say. And here again is reason number 650 not to take polls as received wisdom. It's pretty clear right now the presidential race is very close. It's been so for months. And to a large extent, that's pretty much, by the way, where we found the country back in 2000, divided not just nationally, but in nearly a third of the states where the margin was five percent or less.
There were states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Iowa and, oh, yes, Florida, where it was one percent or less. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen.
HEMMER: Yes, but they also say this is a close race. And they're comparing it already to November of 2000.
What does it say to you if the majority of people do not have their minds made up, if the polls are to be believed?
GREENFIELD: No, but they do have their minds made up. But it's, what it -- it tells us that this is a very intensely fought race, but it doesn't tell you in any way that it's a predictive piece of information about November.
Here's the best example, or a couple of them. You know back in 1948, the race was so well decided that six weeks before the election, the pollsters stopped polling. That's how they missed the Truman situation. People said that's it, we're going to vote for Dewey.
But let's move it up a little bit. Back in 1980, the race between President Carter and Jimmy -- and Ronald Reagan -- was very close very late. Look at those numbers from October 26, on the eve of the one debate, a dead heat. It wasn't until that one face-to-face debate between Carter and Reagan that voters felt comfortable following their gut, which was to replace Carter. There were polls that showed it tight even after that.
And in 1992, President Bush and Clinton were very close at the end, but on election day, Clinton won by five million votes in an electoral landslide.
So there's a dynamic that can happen where people whose minds are made up get unmade.
HEMMER: Yes, and that last explanation tells us voter turnout is so critical come the 2nd of November.
What is the dynamic, do you believe, that can make this closer?
GREENFIELD: Well, allow me to bend the question and offer my suggestion on what would make it less close. It can't be any closer in the polls, but that's the point.
Here's the blindingly obvious one, since we work in television -- events. There can be things happening that will change people's perception of how well the president's done, which is always a key in an incumbent event. There are stories, there's information we may not know yet that could change our minds. There's a book by Kitty Kelly on the Bushes coming out in September that supposedly we're going to spend a lot of time talking about.
We may learn stuff about Kerry we don't know. They may register a whole bunch of new voters that can change the whole dynamic.
But I think the key to this is John Kerry, because he is the unknown. If voters in November still say what they say now, that they're thinking about, seriously, about getting a new president, then a successful Kerry campaign, very much including those debates, could push a lot of voters in his direction, including voters who now say nah, I don't think so.
And by contrast, if Kerry stumbles on the campaign, a lot of voters who are basically anti-Bush are going to say, you know, we just can't take the risk. I've changed my mind and we're going to keep this guy even though I'm not crazy about him, because Kerry doesn't have presidential quality.
Now, one lesson, if history is any guide, undecided voters tend to break away from an incumbent. That's just a general truth about politics. The only endangered presidential incumbents who came back late were Harry Truman and Jerry Ford in 1976, who almost caught Jimmy Carter at the end.
The problem, Bill, is I'm just not sure history is going to be a very reliable guide this time out. But just once again, I know what the numbers say now. But anybody showing up to vote now is going to wait a very long time at that school lunch room, because there ain't any machines there yet.
HEMMER: Very true. And ultimately we have to see how John Kerry does as a day to day candidate come August, September, October. We saw how good he was in Iowa at that point, when his back was against the wall.
GREENFIELD: Yes. We also saw him slip. I think those debates are, you know, are, as usual, or often now, they become institutionalized. They're just critical in seeing these guys face- to-face and voters go I like that guy. I don't trust that guy. I don't think he knows what he's talking about.
HEMMER: The other factor out there is how do Americans feel about Iraq. Do they think it's a noble cause or a lost cause? And that's something they'll decide in November.
GREENFIELD: Yes, well, we're going to hear more about that, I guess, in just a minute or two.
HEMMER: OK, thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: All right.
HEMMER: Indeed, you are right.
GREENFIELD: Thank you.
HEMMER: Back to Heidi now across the room.
COLLINS: The storms that tore through the Midwest have continued eastward, leaving more damage in their wake now. In West Virginia, heavy rain caused widespread flooding yesterday, forcing residents out of their homes and prompting a state of emergency in several counties.
Meanwhile, the cleanup from Sunday's tornadoes continues in the Midwest.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BATH MARSHALL, MARENGO, INDIANA RESIDENT: Most of our furniture we kept and I mean it was fine. Most of our little girl's stuff, though, was lost. I mean there isn't much that we could save, because it all blew out the back of the house.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: A tornado destroyed dozens of homes and killed one person in Marengo, Indiana over the weekend. And in Kentucky, twisters and thunderstorms caused flash flooding and ravaged the north-central part of the state.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: A man's life hung in the balance and all that saved him was a sitcom.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM "CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM," COURTESY HBO)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To tell you the truth, what I'd really like to do is I want to go to Dodgers Stadium and I want to go to the game and I'll pay you for your time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: A young man was arrested last year, accused of killing a woman, a witness who had testified about a pair of other murders. Juan Catalan insisted that he was innocent, but he couldn't really prove it. So, he got some unlikely help from the creator of the HBO hit "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin writes about the case in this week's "New Yorker" magazine.
He's here now to explain.
OK, first of all, set this up a little bit better for us. We just saw some video from the actual show. And in that video is a very important face in this case.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: See it's really a very straightforward story. Juan Catalan goes to his lawyers and said look, at the time of the murder, I wasn't at the murder scene, I was at the ballgame. So his lawyer goes and finds various tapes of what goes on at the ball game. He goes to the Dodger Vision tapes. He goes to Fox Sports and he can't find his client's face in the crowd.
Finally, he hears that Larry David is shooting "Curb Your Enthusiasm" that day at the ball park. So he subpoenas Larry David's company and gets all the footage that they shot.
COLLINS: A great episode, by the way. I saw it.
TOOBIN: We agree on that, I know.
COLLINS: Yes, yes.
TOOBIN: It's a great episode, where he gets the hooker to go with him to the ball park.
COLLINS: Exactly.
TOOBIN: So he -- anyway, so he goes and he gets the outtakes as well as the footage that winds up on the air. You can see it on -- the guy is not broadcast on the air. He was left on the cutting room floor.
COLLINS: Oh, I see. OK.
TOOBIN: But amazingly enough, he is in the footage that Larry David shot at the ball park.
COLLINS: Yes, they said it was right when he was -- when Larry David was walking up the steps and you can see him.
TOOBIN: Walking down the aisle and you could see him. And there they are in the editing room, and Larry David happens to be standing right there when the lawyer sees his client and he jumps up and he says, "There he is! I don't believe it!" And the video that they shot at the ball game has a time code on it for the time of day.
COLLINS: Right. Of course.
TOOBIN: So he was able to take that to the judge. He used that as his alibi. The judge dismissed all the charges. This guy, Juan Catalan, was looking at a death penalty case and because of Larry David's "Curb Your Enthusiasm," he's a free man today.
COLLINS: He's a free man because of Larry David.
Larry David, I think, what did he say, "This is one positive thing I've done in my life."
TOOBIN: The whole thing sort of sounds like an episode of "Curb Your Enthusiasm," though it is real life. And Larry David told me, he said, "You know, I've finally done one good thing in my life, albeit inadvertently," which is a very much a Larry David remark.
COLLINS: Right. Interesting.
All right, Jeffrey Toobin, thanks so much for that.
TOOBIN: It's a fun story.
COLLINS: We want to head back over to Bill.
HEMMER: Heidi, thanks.
Watching the picture now from Baghdad. The Iraqi Governing Council a short time ago saying they will now dissolve itself and will cease to exist after the interim government was put in place and made public today. The last of those major pieces, the new president, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, who took that position after the U.S. backed Adnan Pachachi turned down that position. Heavily fortified, was Pachachi, by the U.S., and Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy doing the bulk of the work right now to put these gentlemen in place.
At this point, we know this, Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy, will be speaking in a moment here. In addition to that, we will hear from the new president; also, the new prime minister, Iyad Allawi, who was officially announced last Friday at the end of last week.
As we watch that screen, Walter Slocombe, a former adviser on national security to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, back with us to talk about just the makeup of these gentlemen and what they mean to the Iraqi people.
At the outset, Mr. Slocombe, do you believe the Iraqi people will accept this group now being put forward? WALTER SLOCOMBE, FORMER COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY ADVISER: Well, we'll find out in a couple of months. But they do represent most of the active political factions in the country and it's significant that in the largely figurehead job of president, you've got a prominent traditional Sunni leader, but whose tribe also includes a lot of Shias.
HEMMER: Yes. Adnan Pachachi, we talked last hour, turned down the position. He was backed by the U.S. He was backed by Brahimi.
Why does he not take this job?
SLOCOMBE: Well, we'll find out in time. I think it's probably a combination of his age and the fact that he knew that he didn't have the support of the central political forces in the country and didn't want it under those conditions.
His attraction was that he was supposedly a unifying figure. If he's not going to be a unifying figure, it's kind of pointless.
HEMMER: What do you make of the Governing Council's decision that was announced just in the past hour to effectively cease and desist, to end itself and to end any of its involvement? Your reaction to that means what?
SLOCOMBE: Well, it's certainly not something that was part of the original plan, but it makes sense, because otherwise you'd have the Governing Council kind of hanging on for another month while the occupation will continue. This arrangement means that the Iraqi authorities with whom the Coalition Provisional Authority and the U.N. will deal will be the people who will take over sovereignty on July 30. And, of course, a lot of them are the same people and they're certainly the same political forces.
HEMMER: What does it tell you -- first, to our viewers, the Arabic speaking members are now at the podium here and as soon as we get the English translation, we'll pump in the microphone and let you listen in, as well.
What does it tell you, Mr. Slocombe, about the growing pains of democracy this country has felt now for a year, that Pachachi would not take that position, that a number of members of the Council already targeted as assassinations? What does it say to you about the process right now in Iraq...
SLOCOMBE: I think we...
HEMMER: ... that we're all watching unfold?
SLOCOMBE: I'm sorry. I think we have to expect that in the course of the next month, there will be assassination attempts, there will be efforts to upset the process in many ways, because whatever the majority of the Iraqi people want and don't want, there are people in Iraq who are desperately determined to stop this from happening.
I continue to believe that most Iraqis want this to succeed. They want the occupation to end. They want a government that they regard as representative and legitimate. And they certainly don't want to go back to the old system.
HEMMER: What do you believe are the consequences if the man the U.S. wants in that position does not get that nod, knowing that the U.S. controls so much of what's happening in Iraq, what are the consequences for that decision?
SLOCOMBE: I think you're making too much of this "the man the Americans wanted." We'll see as this story develops. But I think the fact is the purpose of this whole enterprise with the interim government is to have a government that Iraqis accept, not Americans, not the U.N., not the French, not even the television media. And picking people who have support in the country is the key to that. They won't always do things we want. But one of the things we have to accept is that a sovereign country does things that we don't like, even though basically we're working together toward the same goal.
HEMMER: As the prayer continues there in Baghdad, I'm curious to get your reaction to the following statement here. Many have suggested it does not matter so much what happens in June, but actually what happens after that, the 1st of July. And then you move into August and September.
Your reaction to that?
SLOCOMBE: Well, I think it is certainly the case that there will be a serious security problem for months to come. And it'll take continued effort by the American and the other coalition military forces and the effort to build up the Iraqi security forces. But a key part of that is a government that the Iraqis think is really their government. And we'll have to see whether this effort works.
It has the difficulty that it's not elected. Its main function, in some sense, is to hold elections, to oversee the holding of elections at the end of this year or the very beginning of next year.
But one of the real questions will be whether it stays committed to the process of new elections, rather than trying to perpetuate itself in power.
HEMMER: As the prayer continues there, Lakhdar Brahimi expected to speak at any moment, the U.N. envoy. The new president, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, also expected to speak, and the prime minister, Iyad Allawi. We should hear from him in a matter of moments, too -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Mr. Slocombe, let me ask you a quick question.
Heidi Collins here sitting next to Bill Hemmer.
I'm wondering about the IGC, the Iraqi Governing Council.
How much of a surprise is it that the IGC decided to dissolve itself so quickly?
SLOCOMBE: Well, it's a surprise in the sense that it wasn't part of the original plan. But like I said, it makes sense. It means that there is a transitional period now while the new government, the new ministers can get themselves ready to take over full sovereignty on July 1. The Governing Council as an institution has never been wildly popular in Iraq, although it also represents most of the major political forces. Those political forces and, indeed, many of the individual leaders, will be represented in the new government, including the new president, the new prime minister -- most of the senior, most of the senior ministers will either be in the Governing Council or will be represented with forces that are in the Governing Council.
HEMMER: Also with the backdrop here, we should mention the violence that occurred a short time ago, the car bomb that exploded right near the green zone. That backdrop, again, continues, the backdrop of violence, though, as we watch this ceremony here in Baghdad.
We'll get you there live once we get the translation up and we move forward with what's happening in there in Baghdad.
Get a break here.
Back in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
COMMERCIAL
HEMMER: Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer there standing there in the turban, just sitting down now and taking his seat after the introduction. And we'll get you there when the speakers begin, live in Baghdad, another step taken today for the Iraqi Governing Council, dissolving itself in the past hour, as the process of democracy starts to take another step forward.
It has been a slow and painful process. We'll get you back there live in Baghdad as that ceremony continues -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Twenty-four minutes past the hour now.
We want to tell you a little bit more about other news happening today.
Viacom says Mel Karmazin is resigning as president and chief operating officer. Word just coming in now to CNN about this. Andy Serwer is tracking it, and, of course, we'll have more on it in just a few moments.
The trial is Scott Peterson is set to begin today in Redwood City, California. Prosecutors claim Peterson killed his wife Laci and their unborn son in December of 2002. Hundreds of witnesses for both sides are expected to take the stand over the next several months.
Oklahoma bombing conspirator Terry Nichols could face the death penalty. The sentencing phase in his state trial begins today. Jurors convicted Nichols last week in connection with the 1995 bombing, in which 168 people were killed. He was found guilty on all 161 counts of first degree murder. Nichols is already serving a life sentence under a federal conviction.
People hurt in a fire on a monorail train in Seattle are recuperating this morning after the Memorial Day incident. The train was carrying about 100 passengers to a festival when the fire started. Firefighters rescued everyone from the smoke filled cars. Nine people, including a firefighter, were taken to the hospital. Everyone is expected to be OK, though. The cause of the fire still under investigation.
And in Montgomery, Alabama, the last widow of a Civil War veteran has died. Alberta Martin died yesterday on Memorial Day from complications from a heart attack. She was 97 years old. Martin died nearly 140 years after the Civil War ended. She was married back in the 1920s to Civil War veteran William Jasper Martin.
HEMMER: What a life.
Twenty-five minutes past the hour.
Straight back to Baghdad. Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy, now at the podium. We shall listen here for the English translation.
As soon as we get the translation up and running for you, we'll bring it to you.
A break here.
Back in a moment.
COMMERCIAL
HEMMER: Welcome back, everybody.
Almost 8:30 here in New York.
Heidi in for Soledad O'Brien today -- good morning to you.
COLLINS: Good morning.
HEMMER: Watching this, the events right now in Baghdad unfold before us. The new government being named in a ceremony that. That is Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy, who has worked tirelessly over the past several months trying to get this group together, get them proposed, get them agreed upon. It has not been easy for him; neither for the coalition there. But we'll get you back there live as that ceremony continues today.
The Iraqi Governing Council, very interesting, just today says they will no longer exist.
COLLINS: Right.
HEMMER: A full month ahead of the official transition of power at the end of June, June 30. So the events are unfolding before our eyes. We'll get you back there in a moment.
COLLINS: That is for sure.
Also, barring any last minute delay, the Scott Peterson trial will begin in just a few hours. And it looks like it will be a long one, with possibly hundreds of witnesses called. So we're going to get a report on all of the legal strategies there.
HEMMER: Also, the runaway best selling novel "The Da Vinci Code" has led many people to question some key elements of the New Testament. In a few minutes, we'll look at some of the assertions in the book with the dean of the Yale University Divinity School. He says there are big problems. His views, in a moment here. So we will get to that.
Also today, a big day in California. More than a year after Scott Peterson pleaded not guilty to charges that he murdered his wife Laci and their unborn child, opening statements finally expected to start today.
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