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CNN Live At Daybreak
Mosque Attacked; Abu Ghraib Probe
Aired August 26, 2004 - 06:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: He has also -- the governor said that the U.S. forces and the Iraqi police would not relinquish their positions, but if there was an agreement then the militia should hand over their weapons. If there was no agreement, then the military operations would resume.
In the meantime, some demonstrators who had been seeking to leave the Kufa area and travel to Najaf in a peaceful demonstration were fired on by snipers and by machine gunfire. This is the second attack that these demonstrators have suffered.
Earlier today, people gathered at the Kufa mosque, where shells were mortared. Three mortars landed in the area. It's not clear who was behind this. And as you say, around 25 killed, 60 wounded. Indeed, those figures could rise -- Carol.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Diana Muriel reporting live for us from Baghdad, thank you.
Turning now to the latest on the Iraq prisoner abuse scandal, a military report on Abu Ghraib prison has found more than 40 incidents of abuse, some of it amounting to torture. Investigators also say military intelligence officials could be linked to that abuse.
Joining us by phone now to talk more about that report on Abu Ghraib is CNN Radio reporter Dick Uliano. He's live in Washington.
Good morning.
DICK ULIANO, CNN RADIO CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Carol.
This latest report was issued by three high-ranking Pentagon generals. And essentially, it looked at the role of military intelligence soldiers at Abu Ghraib. And what it found was that these military intelligence soldiers, including officers, did have a role in the Iraqi prisoner abuse.
So far, seven enlisted soldiers (INAUDIBLE) have been charged. This potentially broadens it to a couple of dozen others who could be charged, including civilian contractors.
COSTELLO: You know, a lot of criticism has been heaped on General Sanchez in this report and also in yesterday's report that was released. What could happen to him, if anything?
ULIANO: Well, you know, the reports that have come out so far, starting with the Taguba report, the Schlesinger report and this one, all strike a common theme: the commanders, like General Sanchez who was in charge of all ground forces in Iraq.
And Carol, also top Defense Department officials share the responsibility for this. They were not directly involved. They did not institute the policy of abuse, according to these reports. But they failed in their leadership. And in the military, that's serious.
COSTELLO: That's serious. But again, what could possibly happen?
ULIANO: Well, he could be reprimanded. But we understand from this report so far General Paul Kern, who helped issue the report along with General Fay, said that they are not recommending charges against Sanchez.
You know, there is some almost good news and bad news in these reports. What we've learned so far from these generals and from Schlesinger and Taguba, another general, is that these were individual acts of misconduct on the ground at the facility. But they involved a lot of individuals there, as many as 50.
What's the good news of all of this, if there is any? You know, it's sort of a silver lining to this very dark cloud for the United States internationally. It's that all of these reports have found so far it was not a matter of policy that leaders like Sanchez or like Defense Secretary Rumsfeld didn't issue orders for this kind of thing, but they failed to see what was going on and respond to it.
COSTELLO: It was more a matter of confusion over what the policy was.
ULIANO: Exactly. One of the reports found a lot of chaos, and that some of these military intelligence soldiers actually didn't even know what the policy was. Some of the individuals, some of the 23 that they found yesterday were probably involved in abuse. They said some of these individuals did it because they really didn't understand what the policy was.
COSTELLO: Well, I'm sure more news about this will be coming out in the days to come. Dick Uliano from CNN Radio joining DAYBREAK this morning.
President Bush hits the campaign trail early this morning. He's got a rally in Las Cruces, New Mexico. And then it's on to Farmington and Albuquerque for more campaign events. New Mexico is one of 17 so- called battleground states.
John Kerry hosts a town hall meeting in Anoka, Minnesota, this morning. He'll be talking about healthcare. After that, he heads to Los Angeles for a fund-raiser in Santa Monica. And then he'll spend the night in San Francisco.
It's just a few months now until the presidential election. And all week, we've been telling you where the candidates stand on the issues. This morning: tax cuts. Senator Kerry wants to keep President Bush's tax cuts for the middle-class, but he wants to repeal tax cuts for households making more than $200,000. President Bush wants to make all individual tax cuts permanent, including estate and gift tax cuts. Both candidates say their own plan will cut the deficit and create jobs.
Our political analyst, Ron Brownstein, joins us now live from Washington.
Good morning.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: So, which candidate's plan is resonating with voters?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, by and large, President Bush has gotten some of his weakest ratings from voters on the economy. Look, this is probably the clearest contrast between the candidates. They argue a lot about Iraq, but the difference between them isn't as sharp as it is on taxes.
As you said, John Kerry wants to repeal the elements of President Bush's tax cut that affect voters earning $200,000 a year or more, and use that money to increase spending, primarily to expand access to healthcare but also in education, homeland security and so forth.
President Bush has pursued three large tax cuts in his presidency. Really, the only time in American history we've cut taxes this much during a war time. And now, he wants to make them permanent.
So, voters here have a very real choice, probably the starkest they have almost on any issue in this campaign.
COSTELLO: I know even President Bush's core supporters are upset at the size of the deficit, in part because of these tax cuts. How will he play this during the Republican National Convention?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think during the convention and beyond, President Bush tries to frame it largely as a matter of spending and economic slowdown in the wake of 9/11 and indeed the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000. That is his argument.
Democrats argue, and the Congressional Budget Office among others, have attributed a significant share of the deficit to the tax cuts, which have significantly reduced revenue.
Now, John Kerry has a problem in that the Bush campaign is arguing, and many independent analysts agree, that while he is promising to have the deficit over a first time, the size of his spending would make that difficult to do with the amount of revenue that he's talking about raising.
So, the Bush campaign says he would have to raise taxes on the middle-class to fund his agenda. Kerry has hinted that he would scale back his agenda. It is difficult after Bill Clinton's experience in '93 to imagine Democrats really going after middle-class taxes.
So, it may be that some of the spending promises that John Kerry have wouldn't come to fruition.
COSTELLO: Of course, this issue is now being obscured by the battle over those attack ads. And you've written an interesting editorial in the "L.A. Times" this morning showing a new poll that shows at least the Swift Boat ads seem to be having some effect negatively on John Kerry.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, that's right. When you ask people directly, did John Kerry serve honorably? Did he deserve his medals? You get about 60 to 20 saying yes. But when you look at all of the indirect measures, more prominently the shift in the race itself, for the first time in the "L.A. Times" poll this year we have President Bush ahead, albeit within the margin of error.
We also saw Kerry eroding slightly since June on a number of measures that would be related to this: Faith in him as commander-in- chief. Which one of these two men has the honesty and integrity to be president? Which one is a strong leader? And the interpretation of his military service, whether he demonstrated the qualities a president needs or showed bad judgment in the way he protested the war.
On all of those fronts, Kerry lost a small amount of ground, usually within the margin of error, but the trend was consistent. And to me, it all suggests that these ads have taken a little bit of a bite out of him.
COSTELLO: Ron Brownstein live from Washington this morning, thank you. We'll see you again tomorrow.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
COSTELLO: CNN, of course, will have the Republican National Convention covered from beginning to end. Our primetime coverage begins Monday night at 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 Pacific Time.
Is there any good coming out of all of those negative ads? Political ads we're talking about. There may be. We'll explain in a live report and explore how these so-called attacks ads influence people.
And the fluctuating oil prices, a live report from the Nasdaq Marketsite with the latest.
But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: He wasn't under fire. He was under fire. He deserved the medals. He didn't deserve the medals. You may be tired of hearing negative ads, or even hearing about those ads. But our next guest says all of the negativity actually may play a positive role in the upcoming presidential election. John Geer joins us from Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
Come on. These attacks ads can be a good thing?
JOHN GEER, VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY: Yes, they sometimes are a little messy, but the answer is yes, because we can learn a lot. I mean, consider the fact that these attacks on John Kerry, which many people feel are outrageous, unfair lies, have stirred up lots of more people to come forward and talk about what John Kerry did in Vietnam. And I think the end result is we're learning more.
It's not pretty, but it can be helpful, because we need to know.
COSTELLO: Yes, but what if the ads are just plain wrong?
GEER: Well, that's the point, is what is exactly wrong? I mean, you have five veterans in these Swift Boat ads, for example, saying outrageous things, by the Kerry people standards. But they have the right to say them. And the Kerry people have to be prepared to fire back, because the senator has made his service in Vietnam so important.
So, it's an ongoing conversation that I think will help.
COSTELLO: Yes, but if you're a voter and you're sitting out there, how do you know what is true and what is not true?
GEER: Well, first of all, voters are going to come across so many different pieces of information that the Swift Boat ad itself is only being heard by a small number of people in the United States. It's conversations like between myself and you and other people that voters are more likely to come across. And that's potentially, you know, informative for them.
COSTELLO: Well, here's something else. Look at what's happening. Former Senator Max Cleland goes to Crawford, Texas, to deliver a letter to President Bush, pleading with him to condemn these Swift Boat ads. At some point, aren't all of the other issues obscured because of this spectacle this fight has become?
GEER: Well, absolutely. I mean, in the case that right now this is the key issue, it's pushed things like Iraq and the economy off the table. But those issues will, in fact, come back.
And I say again that you have John Kerry, who has made a centerpiece for his campaign of his service in Vietnam. It strikes me as fair to attack it. He has to be prepared to fight back.
And you can be sure that the Kerry people believe that his service is a strength. And so, they do want to talk about it to make sure they set the record straight. Politics is rough and tumble, and that's the way it's going to be, and it's going to continue to be for the coming months. COSTELLO: Yes. It's been rough and tumble since this country was born, as a matter of fact. But at some point, don't the ads get so negative that people just simply tune them out?
GEER: Well, if that's the case, if they get so negative that they tune them out, then they're not effective. And the people who have sponsored them don't provide any rewards. There are not a lot of costs.
You need to just consider the back and forth and how politics is a conversation. It's conflict. And we need to know about the good and the bad of both candidates. And I can guarantee you that George Bush is not going to remind the American people of what's bad about his record, and nor will John Kerry remind the American public of what's weak about his record. It's the responsibility of the opposition to do so.
COSTELLO: Food for thought this morning. John Geer from Vanderbilt University, thank you for joining DAYBREAK.
GEER: Thank you.
COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:44 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
The march to Najaf is on. An Iraq Shiite spiritual leader, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is heading to Najaf. His slow-moving convoy is packed with thousands of Shiite faithful. It is not clear what the Ayatollah will do when he arrives in Najaf.
Actor Danny Glover weighs in on the humanitarian crisis in Sudan's Darfur region. He faces disorderly conduct and unlawful assembly charges after being arrested on the steps of Sudan's embassy in Washington.
In money news, Bill Gates put his money where his mouth is. He's given $400,000 to a campaign behind California's Proposition 71. Prop 71 would make $3 billion available for stem cell research and cloning projects.
Psychiatrist and writer Elisabeth Kubler-Ross has died in Scottsdale, Arizona. Her book on death and dying reported that people go through five stages of grief. She identified them as denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Her son said she had been in the acceptance stage for some time. In an interview a couple of years ago, she said, I told God last night he's a damned procrastinator. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross was 78.
In sports, crazier by the day, so says retired running back Ricky Williams. He says he's not rejoining the Miami Dolphins. In fact, he's off to India for a bit. No word on that $8 million Miami wants back from Ricky Williams.
(WEATHER BREAK)
COSTELLO: Those are the latest headlines for you this morning. It's time for a little business buzz now. Oil prices are falling, but will it last?
Carrie Lee has more live from the Nasdaq Marketsite.
CARRIE LEE, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Carol.
Well, oil is actually starting to creep a little bit higher early this morning here. Prices per barrel are up about 30 cents. Still below $44 a barrel though, but up about 30 cents to $43.77. What's happening is renewed violence and sabotage attacks in Iraq are reviving fears over supply destructions. But still, we saw a big decline yesterday. Prices down $1.74, that's about 4 percent to 43.47.
And keep in mind, we are well below those record highs of last week. In fact, we're down 11 percent since last Thursday when oil settled at about 48.70. This is all of the numbers here I'm giving you for NYMEX traded oil.
Now, keep in mind, though, that if you adjust for inflation, oil is more than $13 cheaper than when we were leading up to the first Gulf War. But still, oil is a big concern among investors these days. It looks like, Carol, the fact that oil is creeping a little bit higher early this morning could be a reason for the lower open we're expecting. Futures are pointing to a bit of a weak open for stocks.
KKD, Krispy Kreme Donuts, is one stock in focus. They really missed the Wall Street estimate on profits for the recent quarter. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 22 cents a share. They earned just 9 cents a share versus 21 cents a year ago. No profit guidance going forward. So, KKD could be taking a big hit today. We will see for sure at 9:30.
Back to you.
COSTELLO: We'll keep watching. Carrie Lee live from the Nasdaq Marketsite, thank you.
If you're in the market for a new job, you'll want to know where to go and what to look for. We'll tell you all of that in a live report with careerbuilder.com. That's just ahead on DAYBREAK.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Job hunters from the presidential candidates on down are keeping a wary eye on the economy. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported July unemployment claims were down to 5.5 percent. But the number of new jobs created is much lower than anticipated, only 32,000 jobs added.
So, what should you do if you're pounding the pavement looking for work? What are the best jobs out there? And where are they?
The man with the answers to our employment questions is Richard Castlellini from careerbuilder.com. Good morning, Richard. You've live in Chicago this morning. And we've been soliciting e-mails about what's most important in a job to most people. Most people say a pension program, 401(k), insurance. Pay comes in third. I thought that was amazing. I thought pay would be No. 1.
RICHARD CASTLELLINI, CAREERBUILDER.COM: Yes, that is somewhat surprising. Everybody wants to be paid well, but in today's day and age they're really concerned about those benefits, you know, the 401(k), the healthcare. You know, people really want that stability in their jobs.
COSTELLO: Yes, it's because they're all afraid of losing their social security benefits later. But tell me, how hard is it to find a good-paying job with benefits right now?
CASTLELLINI: It's not has hard as it has been in the past few years. I mean, there are some fields that are really hiring right now; healthcare for one. The demographic changes, the graying of America have made it so that healthcare, even in the past few years, was adding jobs and it's going to continue to add jobs. It added over 300,000 jobs in the past year.
Sales, companies are investing in revenue-generators. On careerbuilder.com alone, we have 70,000 sales jobs. That's double the amount that we had at this point last year. Professional business services -- accounting, finance, admin clerical -- you know, those positions are hiring. And finally, in the hospitality sector, you know, we're seeing some significant job growth there as well.
COSTELLO: The hospitality sector, what do you mean by that? Is it waiters, waitresses, what?
CASTLELLINI: Waiters, waitresses, people who work in hotels, all of those catering to people, you know, spending their leisure dollars.
COSTELLO: So, tell us hot cities where these jobs are readily available.
CASTLELLINI: Well, right now, the coasts are doing better than the Midwest. The East Coast and the West Coast are having more significant job gains than the Midwest areas. But you've got to look at cities that have very good job-to-population ratios. Cities like Orlando, Phoenix, Charlotte, for example, are cities that are doing well.
You're certainly going to always have more jobs in the major metropolitan areas, but those are some of the cities that have a great balance between the number of workers and the number of jobs being created.
COSTELLO: So, are you saying if you live in the Midwest, you might want to leave and go elsewhere for that good job?
CASTLELLINI: Well, there are certainly jobs in the Midwest, but it's just stronger on the coasts. COSTELLO: Stronger on the coasts. Richard Castlellini, thank you for joining DAYBREAK this morning.
CASTLELLINI: You're welcome.
COSTELLO: We have been soliciting e-mails this morning, Chad. And you've probably not been able to read any of them, because you've been busy up there.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I have been busy with all of the typhoons and tropical storms and stuff like that. Yes, but I have been listening, and I was very surprised at how many people were so in tune to healthcare.
COSTELLO: Oh, yes.
MYERS: I want healthcare. I want healthcare. I want healthcare. I don't care what I make. And in fact, my father-in-law doesn't have healthcare. He's working a job, no healthcare, and they're in the 60s now without any healthcare. It's like...
COSTELLO: That's just scary.
MYERS: It's kind of a nightmare situation if something bad happens, right?
COSTELLO: Absolutely. This is from Roger from Phoenix. He says: "My co-workers are most important to me. They must be competent, caring, dedicated and work together as a team."
MYERS: Well...
COSTELLO: I mean, that is important, but, you know, I looked at that and my first thought was, 'Oh, no, it's pay.' But then I thought, 'How selfish is that of me?'
MYERS: Well, there are long-term goals and there are short-term goals. And some people really are looking into the future for pensions, and some people are looking at, I just need money right now.
COSTELLO: Or I just need a job right now.
MYERS: It depends on if you have a job or not. You know, it depends on how you're looking for a job, whether you have one or not.
COSTELLO: Definitely so.
MYERS: Yes.
COSTELLO: Hey, today's mug winner we'll announce it in two minutes, but first this is DAYBREAK for a Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: It's time to check out our "Web Clicks" this morning to see what you're interested in on CNN.com. The No. 1 clicked-on story in Florida. Have you heard about this? The Marines go to these parents' house, say their son has been killed in Iraq. And then, the father goes outside, grabs a propane tank and some gasoline in the garage, goes out to the Marines' van and sets it on fire. Somehow he's trapped inside the van. He's in the hospital this morning. A very sad story.
The No. 2 clicked-on story is...
MYERS: Garage sale!
COSTELLO: Governor Schwarzenegger has found a way to make some more money for California. He's holding a huge garage sale of just this stuff that's been laying around the state government offices.
MYERS: Yes, desks, pens, whatever, scissors.
COSTELLO: Scissors.
MYERS: Cars. Anything that has been basically seized property, seizures, he's going to sell it all.
COSTELLO: Some of it's on eBay, so you should check it out.
The No. 3, the third most clicked-on story on CNN.com, killer bees possibly as far north as Oklahoma. Apparently a construction crew cut through a limb and was attacked by this huge swarm of bees, and they did tests on them and found out that they're Africanized bees.
MYERS: Remember that movie?
COSTELLO: "Killer Bees?" It was scary.
MYERS: It scared everybody, didn't it?
Now let's give away the mug from yesterday. We don't think we're going to have time to give one away today. But here are the answers and the questions from yesterday.
What year did Iraq last win a medal at the Summer Games? That was 1960. And what would the average weight gain be if you had one soda pop a day over the next four years? And you would actually gain 10 pounds.
COSTELLO: Wow!
MYERS: The winner is Dan Peterson from Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
COSTELLO: Congratulations, Dan.
Send us any comments to daybreak@cnn.com. I'm Carol Costello -- Chad Myers.
"AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.
MYERS: See you tomorrow.
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Aired August 26, 2004 - 06:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: He has also -- the governor said that the U.S. forces and the Iraqi police would not relinquish their positions, but if there was an agreement then the militia should hand over their weapons. If there was no agreement, then the military operations would resume.
In the meantime, some demonstrators who had been seeking to leave the Kufa area and travel to Najaf in a peaceful demonstration were fired on by snipers and by machine gunfire. This is the second attack that these demonstrators have suffered.
Earlier today, people gathered at the Kufa mosque, where shells were mortared. Three mortars landed in the area. It's not clear who was behind this. And as you say, around 25 killed, 60 wounded. Indeed, those figures could rise -- Carol.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Diana Muriel reporting live for us from Baghdad, thank you.
Turning now to the latest on the Iraq prisoner abuse scandal, a military report on Abu Ghraib prison has found more than 40 incidents of abuse, some of it amounting to torture. Investigators also say military intelligence officials could be linked to that abuse.
Joining us by phone now to talk more about that report on Abu Ghraib is CNN Radio reporter Dick Uliano. He's live in Washington.
Good morning.
DICK ULIANO, CNN RADIO CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Carol.
This latest report was issued by three high-ranking Pentagon generals. And essentially, it looked at the role of military intelligence soldiers at Abu Ghraib. And what it found was that these military intelligence soldiers, including officers, did have a role in the Iraqi prisoner abuse.
So far, seven enlisted soldiers (INAUDIBLE) have been charged. This potentially broadens it to a couple of dozen others who could be charged, including civilian contractors.
COSTELLO: You know, a lot of criticism has been heaped on General Sanchez in this report and also in yesterday's report that was released. What could happen to him, if anything?
ULIANO: Well, you know, the reports that have come out so far, starting with the Taguba report, the Schlesinger report and this one, all strike a common theme: the commanders, like General Sanchez who was in charge of all ground forces in Iraq.
And Carol, also top Defense Department officials share the responsibility for this. They were not directly involved. They did not institute the policy of abuse, according to these reports. But they failed in their leadership. And in the military, that's serious.
COSTELLO: That's serious. But again, what could possibly happen?
ULIANO: Well, he could be reprimanded. But we understand from this report so far General Paul Kern, who helped issue the report along with General Fay, said that they are not recommending charges against Sanchez.
You know, there is some almost good news and bad news in these reports. What we've learned so far from these generals and from Schlesinger and Taguba, another general, is that these were individual acts of misconduct on the ground at the facility. But they involved a lot of individuals there, as many as 50.
What's the good news of all of this, if there is any? You know, it's sort of a silver lining to this very dark cloud for the United States internationally. It's that all of these reports have found so far it was not a matter of policy that leaders like Sanchez or like Defense Secretary Rumsfeld didn't issue orders for this kind of thing, but they failed to see what was going on and respond to it.
COSTELLO: It was more a matter of confusion over what the policy was.
ULIANO: Exactly. One of the reports found a lot of chaos, and that some of these military intelligence soldiers actually didn't even know what the policy was. Some of the individuals, some of the 23 that they found yesterday were probably involved in abuse. They said some of these individuals did it because they really didn't understand what the policy was.
COSTELLO: Well, I'm sure more news about this will be coming out in the days to come. Dick Uliano from CNN Radio joining DAYBREAK this morning.
President Bush hits the campaign trail early this morning. He's got a rally in Las Cruces, New Mexico. And then it's on to Farmington and Albuquerque for more campaign events. New Mexico is one of 17 so- called battleground states.
John Kerry hosts a town hall meeting in Anoka, Minnesota, this morning. He'll be talking about healthcare. After that, he heads to Los Angeles for a fund-raiser in Santa Monica. And then he'll spend the night in San Francisco.
It's just a few months now until the presidential election. And all week, we've been telling you where the candidates stand on the issues. This morning: tax cuts. Senator Kerry wants to keep President Bush's tax cuts for the middle-class, but he wants to repeal tax cuts for households making more than $200,000. President Bush wants to make all individual tax cuts permanent, including estate and gift tax cuts. Both candidates say their own plan will cut the deficit and create jobs.
Our political analyst, Ron Brownstein, joins us now live from Washington.
Good morning.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: So, which candidate's plan is resonating with voters?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, by and large, President Bush has gotten some of his weakest ratings from voters on the economy. Look, this is probably the clearest contrast between the candidates. They argue a lot about Iraq, but the difference between them isn't as sharp as it is on taxes.
As you said, John Kerry wants to repeal the elements of President Bush's tax cut that affect voters earning $200,000 a year or more, and use that money to increase spending, primarily to expand access to healthcare but also in education, homeland security and so forth.
President Bush has pursued three large tax cuts in his presidency. Really, the only time in American history we've cut taxes this much during a war time. And now, he wants to make them permanent.
So, voters here have a very real choice, probably the starkest they have almost on any issue in this campaign.
COSTELLO: I know even President Bush's core supporters are upset at the size of the deficit, in part because of these tax cuts. How will he play this during the Republican National Convention?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think during the convention and beyond, President Bush tries to frame it largely as a matter of spending and economic slowdown in the wake of 9/11 and indeed the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000. That is his argument.
Democrats argue, and the Congressional Budget Office among others, have attributed a significant share of the deficit to the tax cuts, which have significantly reduced revenue.
Now, John Kerry has a problem in that the Bush campaign is arguing, and many independent analysts agree, that while he is promising to have the deficit over a first time, the size of his spending would make that difficult to do with the amount of revenue that he's talking about raising.
So, the Bush campaign says he would have to raise taxes on the middle-class to fund his agenda. Kerry has hinted that he would scale back his agenda. It is difficult after Bill Clinton's experience in '93 to imagine Democrats really going after middle-class taxes.
So, it may be that some of the spending promises that John Kerry have wouldn't come to fruition.
COSTELLO: Of course, this issue is now being obscured by the battle over those attack ads. And you've written an interesting editorial in the "L.A. Times" this morning showing a new poll that shows at least the Swift Boat ads seem to be having some effect negatively on John Kerry.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, that's right. When you ask people directly, did John Kerry serve honorably? Did he deserve his medals? You get about 60 to 20 saying yes. But when you look at all of the indirect measures, more prominently the shift in the race itself, for the first time in the "L.A. Times" poll this year we have President Bush ahead, albeit within the margin of error.
We also saw Kerry eroding slightly since June on a number of measures that would be related to this: Faith in him as commander-in- chief. Which one of these two men has the honesty and integrity to be president? Which one is a strong leader? And the interpretation of his military service, whether he demonstrated the qualities a president needs or showed bad judgment in the way he protested the war.
On all of those fronts, Kerry lost a small amount of ground, usually within the margin of error, but the trend was consistent. And to me, it all suggests that these ads have taken a little bit of a bite out of him.
COSTELLO: Ron Brownstein live from Washington this morning, thank you. We'll see you again tomorrow.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
COSTELLO: CNN, of course, will have the Republican National Convention covered from beginning to end. Our primetime coverage begins Monday night at 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 Pacific Time.
Is there any good coming out of all of those negative ads? Political ads we're talking about. There may be. We'll explain in a live report and explore how these so-called attacks ads influence people.
And the fluctuating oil prices, a live report from the Nasdaq Marketsite with the latest.
But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: He wasn't under fire. He was under fire. He deserved the medals. He didn't deserve the medals. You may be tired of hearing negative ads, or even hearing about those ads. But our next guest says all of the negativity actually may play a positive role in the upcoming presidential election. John Geer joins us from Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
Come on. These attacks ads can be a good thing?
JOHN GEER, VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY: Yes, they sometimes are a little messy, but the answer is yes, because we can learn a lot. I mean, consider the fact that these attacks on John Kerry, which many people feel are outrageous, unfair lies, have stirred up lots of more people to come forward and talk about what John Kerry did in Vietnam. And I think the end result is we're learning more.
It's not pretty, but it can be helpful, because we need to know.
COSTELLO: Yes, but what if the ads are just plain wrong?
GEER: Well, that's the point, is what is exactly wrong? I mean, you have five veterans in these Swift Boat ads, for example, saying outrageous things, by the Kerry people standards. But they have the right to say them. And the Kerry people have to be prepared to fire back, because the senator has made his service in Vietnam so important.
So, it's an ongoing conversation that I think will help.
COSTELLO: Yes, but if you're a voter and you're sitting out there, how do you know what is true and what is not true?
GEER: Well, first of all, voters are going to come across so many different pieces of information that the Swift Boat ad itself is only being heard by a small number of people in the United States. It's conversations like between myself and you and other people that voters are more likely to come across. And that's potentially, you know, informative for them.
COSTELLO: Well, here's something else. Look at what's happening. Former Senator Max Cleland goes to Crawford, Texas, to deliver a letter to President Bush, pleading with him to condemn these Swift Boat ads. At some point, aren't all of the other issues obscured because of this spectacle this fight has become?
GEER: Well, absolutely. I mean, in the case that right now this is the key issue, it's pushed things like Iraq and the economy off the table. But those issues will, in fact, come back.
And I say again that you have John Kerry, who has made a centerpiece for his campaign of his service in Vietnam. It strikes me as fair to attack it. He has to be prepared to fight back.
And you can be sure that the Kerry people believe that his service is a strength. And so, they do want to talk about it to make sure they set the record straight. Politics is rough and tumble, and that's the way it's going to be, and it's going to continue to be for the coming months. COSTELLO: Yes. It's been rough and tumble since this country was born, as a matter of fact. But at some point, don't the ads get so negative that people just simply tune them out?
GEER: Well, if that's the case, if they get so negative that they tune them out, then they're not effective. And the people who have sponsored them don't provide any rewards. There are not a lot of costs.
You need to just consider the back and forth and how politics is a conversation. It's conflict. And we need to know about the good and the bad of both candidates. And I can guarantee you that George Bush is not going to remind the American people of what's bad about his record, and nor will John Kerry remind the American public of what's weak about his record. It's the responsibility of the opposition to do so.
COSTELLO: Food for thought this morning. John Geer from Vanderbilt University, thank you for joining DAYBREAK.
GEER: Thank you.
COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:44 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
The march to Najaf is on. An Iraq Shiite spiritual leader, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is heading to Najaf. His slow-moving convoy is packed with thousands of Shiite faithful. It is not clear what the Ayatollah will do when he arrives in Najaf.
Actor Danny Glover weighs in on the humanitarian crisis in Sudan's Darfur region. He faces disorderly conduct and unlawful assembly charges after being arrested on the steps of Sudan's embassy in Washington.
In money news, Bill Gates put his money where his mouth is. He's given $400,000 to a campaign behind California's Proposition 71. Prop 71 would make $3 billion available for stem cell research and cloning projects.
Psychiatrist and writer Elisabeth Kubler-Ross has died in Scottsdale, Arizona. Her book on death and dying reported that people go through five stages of grief. She identified them as denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Her son said she had been in the acceptance stage for some time. In an interview a couple of years ago, she said, I told God last night he's a damned procrastinator. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross was 78.
In sports, crazier by the day, so says retired running back Ricky Williams. He says he's not rejoining the Miami Dolphins. In fact, he's off to India for a bit. No word on that $8 million Miami wants back from Ricky Williams.
(WEATHER BREAK)
COSTELLO: Those are the latest headlines for you this morning. It's time for a little business buzz now. Oil prices are falling, but will it last?
Carrie Lee has more live from the Nasdaq Marketsite.
CARRIE LEE, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Carol.
Well, oil is actually starting to creep a little bit higher early this morning here. Prices per barrel are up about 30 cents. Still below $44 a barrel though, but up about 30 cents to $43.77. What's happening is renewed violence and sabotage attacks in Iraq are reviving fears over supply destructions. But still, we saw a big decline yesterday. Prices down $1.74, that's about 4 percent to 43.47.
And keep in mind, we are well below those record highs of last week. In fact, we're down 11 percent since last Thursday when oil settled at about 48.70. This is all of the numbers here I'm giving you for NYMEX traded oil.
Now, keep in mind, though, that if you adjust for inflation, oil is more than $13 cheaper than when we were leading up to the first Gulf War. But still, oil is a big concern among investors these days. It looks like, Carol, the fact that oil is creeping a little bit higher early this morning could be a reason for the lower open we're expecting. Futures are pointing to a bit of a weak open for stocks.
KKD, Krispy Kreme Donuts, is one stock in focus. They really missed the Wall Street estimate on profits for the recent quarter. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 22 cents a share. They earned just 9 cents a share versus 21 cents a year ago. No profit guidance going forward. So, KKD could be taking a big hit today. We will see for sure at 9:30.
Back to you.
COSTELLO: We'll keep watching. Carrie Lee live from the Nasdaq Marketsite, thank you.
If you're in the market for a new job, you'll want to know where to go and what to look for. We'll tell you all of that in a live report with careerbuilder.com. That's just ahead on DAYBREAK.
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COSTELLO: Job hunters from the presidential candidates on down are keeping a wary eye on the economy. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported July unemployment claims were down to 5.5 percent. But the number of new jobs created is much lower than anticipated, only 32,000 jobs added.
So, what should you do if you're pounding the pavement looking for work? What are the best jobs out there? And where are they?
The man with the answers to our employment questions is Richard Castlellini from careerbuilder.com. Good morning, Richard. You've live in Chicago this morning. And we've been soliciting e-mails about what's most important in a job to most people. Most people say a pension program, 401(k), insurance. Pay comes in third. I thought that was amazing. I thought pay would be No. 1.
RICHARD CASTLELLINI, CAREERBUILDER.COM: Yes, that is somewhat surprising. Everybody wants to be paid well, but in today's day and age they're really concerned about those benefits, you know, the 401(k), the healthcare. You know, people really want that stability in their jobs.
COSTELLO: Yes, it's because they're all afraid of losing their social security benefits later. But tell me, how hard is it to find a good-paying job with benefits right now?
CASTLELLINI: It's not has hard as it has been in the past few years. I mean, there are some fields that are really hiring right now; healthcare for one. The demographic changes, the graying of America have made it so that healthcare, even in the past few years, was adding jobs and it's going to continue to add jobs. It added over 300,000 jobs in the past year.
Sales, companies are investing in revenue-generators. On careerbuilder.com alone, we have 70,000 sales jobs. That's double the amount that we had at this point last year. Professional business services -- accounting, finance, admin clerical -- you know, those positions are hiring. And finally, in the hospitality sector, you know, we're seeing some significant job growth there as well.
COSTELLO: The hospitality sector, what do you mean by that? Is it waiters, waitresses, what?
CASTLELLINI: Waiters, waitresses, people who work in hotels, all of those catering to people, you know, spending their leisure dollars.
COSTELLO: So, tell us hot cities where these jobs are readily available.
CASTLELLINI: Well, right now, the coasts are doing better than the Midwest. The East Coast and the West Coast are having more significant job gains than the Midwest areas. But you've got to look at cities that have very good job-to-population ratios. Cities like Orlando, Phoenix, Charlotte, for example, are cities that are doing well.
You're certainly going to always have more jobs in the major metropolitan areas, but those are some of the cities that have a great balance between the number of workers and the number of jobs being created.
COSTELLO: So, are you saying if you live in the Midwest, you might want to leave and go elsewhere for that good job?
CASTLELLINI: Well, there are certainly jobs in the Midwest, but it's just stronger on the coasts. COSTELLO: Stronger on the coasts. Richard Castlellini, thank you for joining DAYBREAK this morning.
CASTLELLINI: You're welcome.
COSTELLO: We have been soliciting e-mails this morning, Chad. And you've probably not been able to read any of them, because you've been busy up there.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I have been busy with all of the typhoons and tropical storms and stuff like that. Yes, but I have been listening, and I was very surprised at how many people were so in tune to healthcare.
COSTELLO: Oh, yes.
MYERS: I want healthcare. I want healthcare. I want healthcare. I don't care what I make. And in fact, my father-in-law doesn't have healthcare. He's working a job, no healthcare, and they're in the 60s now without any healthcare. It's like...
COSTELLO: That's just scary.
MYERS: It's kind of a nightmare situation if something bad happens, right?
COSTELLO: Absolutely. This is from Roger from Phoenix. He says: "My co-workers are most important to me. They must be competent, caring, dedicated and work together as a team."
MYERS: Well...
COSTELLO: I mean, that is important, but, you know, I looked at that and my first thought was, 'Oh, no, it's pay.' But then I thought, 'How selfish is that of me?'
MYERS: Well, there are long-term goals and there are short-term goals. And some people really are looking into the future for pensions, and some people are looking at, I just need money right now.
COSTELLO: Or I just need a job right now.
MYERS: It depends on if you have a job or not. You know, it depends on how you're looking for a job, whether you have one or not.
COSTELLO: Definitely so.
MYERS: Yes.
COSTELLO: Hey, today's mug winner we'll announce it in two minutes, but first this is DAYBREAK for a Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: It's time to check out our "Web Clicks" this morning to see what you're interested in on CNN.com. The No. 1 clicked-on story in Florida. Have you heard about this? The Marines go to these parents' house, say their son has been killed in Iraq. And then, the father goes outside, grabs a propane tank and some gasoline in the garage, goes out to the Marines' van and sets it on fire. Somehow he's trapped inside the van. He's in the hospital this morning. A very sad story.
The No. 2 clicked-on story is...
MYERS: Garage sale!
COSTELLO: Governor Schwarzenegger has found a way to make some more money for California. He's holding a huge garage sale of just this stuff that's been laying around the state government offices.
MYERS: Yes, desks, pens, whatever, scissors.
COSTELLO: Scissors.
MYERS: Cars. Anything that has been basically seized property, seizures, he's going to sell it all.
COSTELLO: Some of it's on eBay, so you should check it out.
The No. 3, the third most clicked-on story on CNN.com, killer bees possibly as far north as Oklahoma. Apparently a construction crew cut through a limb and was attacked by this huge swarm of bees, and they did tests on them and found out that they're Africanized bees.
MYERS: Remember that movie?
COSTELLO: "Killer Bees?" It was scary.
MYERS: It scared everybody, didn't it?
Now let's give away the mug from yesterday. We don't think we're going to have time to give one away today. But here are the answers and the questions from yesterday.
What year did Iraq last win a medal at the Summer Games? That was 1960. And what would the average weight gain be if you had one soda pop a day over the next four years? And you would actually gain 10 pounds.
COSTELLO: Wow!
MYERS: The winner is Dan Peterson from Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
COSTELLO: Congratulations, Dan.
Send us any comments to daybreak@cnn.com. I'm Carol Costello -- Chad Myers.
"AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.
MYERS: See you tomorrow.
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