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Paula Zahn Now

Presidential Candidates on the Attack; Fall Elections Could Reshape Congress; Singer, Writer Runs for Texas Governor

Aired September 08, 2004 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Now it's serious. A nasty campaign gets even nastier.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If we make the wrong choice, then the danger is that we'll get hit again.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This statement by his vice president, it is dishonorable and it is undignified.

ZAHN: The candidates push.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We were right to make America safer by removing Saddam Hussein from power.

ZAHN: And shove.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They are raiding the Social Security trust fund in order to pay for their mistakes in Iraq.

ZAHN: Partisan ads.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

NARRATOR: Protect Medicare.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

BUSH: American jobs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

KERRY: And I approved this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

BUSH: And I approved this message. (END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Stir up passions.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We need to roll them back.

Tonight, an exclusive new poll of four key battleground states.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: And good evening and welcome. Glad to have you with us tonight.

We start off with presidential politics. The attacks are getting sharper as the time is getting shorter. It's 55 days and counting until the presidential election. Of course, it isn't just one election, but 51 separate elections in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia. Before we show you the latest poll numbers in four crucial showdown states, we take you out on the campaign trail.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN (voice-over): Senator Kerry came to Cincinnati's historic Union Terminal to launch his newest attack on President Bush. The location was carefully chosen. Two years ago, the president stood in this same place to make his case for war in Iraq, a war his opponent now portrays as a domestic policy failure.

KERRY: The cost of the president's go-it-alone policy in Iraq is now $200 billion and counting; $200 billion for Iraq, but they tell us we can't afford after-school programs for our children.

ZAHN: At one point, Kerry's speech was interrupted by a heckler, a man the Kerry camp later identified as a Kentucky spokesman for the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth. Vietnam as an issue won't go away.

Today, in fact, it's cutting both ways. "The Boston Globe" reexamined George W. Bush's military records and reports he signed papers in 1968 and 1973 pledging to meet National Guard training commitments or be called up to active duty. The paper says he neither met the commitments nor faced the punishment. For months, the White House has responded to questions about the president's National Guard service by saying his honorable discharge proves he fulfilled all his requirements.

SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The president was proud of his service in the National Guard. He fulfilled his duty. He was honorably discharged.

ZAHN: "The Globe" got a similar response last night. There is no doubt the president was on duty today. In Washington, he met with lawmakers to discuss reforms proposed by the 9/11 Commission.

Next came a trip to Florida, touring hurricane damage, promising federal aid to the victims.

BUSH: This morning, I signed legislation providing $2 billion in additional funding for cleanup and FEMA relief operations.

ZAHN: It's an incumbent's best advantage, a chance to look presidential, compassionate and above the fray.

Back on the campaign trail, the clash of the running mates is fraying tempers. Yesterday, Vice President Dick Cheney seemed to say a Democratic victory would invite terrorists to strike America again.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHENEY: It's absolutely essential that eight weeks from today on November 2, we make the right choice, because, if we make the wrong choice, then the danger is that we'll get hit again.

ZAHN: Senator John Edwards hit back this morning, hard.

EDWARDS: This statement by his vice president was intended not only to divide us. In addition to that, it is dishonorable and it is undignified.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: It is getting pretty rough out there, as you can see. We're going to discuss the candidates and the issues with a pair of U.S. senators. Republican Saxby Chambliss of Georgia is a member of the Armed Services and Select Intelligence committees. He joins us from Capitol Hill.

Good to see you, sir.

SEN. SAXBY CHAMBLISS (R), GEORGIA: You too, Paula.

ZAHN: Also, let's welcome Democratic Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, a member of the Appropriations Committee, who joins us from our Washington bureau.

Glad to have you both of you with us.

Senators, I want to start off tonight by sharing with our audience some of the comments that are being called fear-mongering by some Americans, when the vice president suggested that if John Kerry is elected, that the danger is we'll get hit again. Let's listen to more of the vice president's controversial comments.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHENEY: We'll be hit in a way that'll be devastating from the standpoint of the United States and then we'll fall back into the pre- 9/11 mind-set, if you will, that in fact these terrorist attacks are just criminal acts and that we're not really at war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss, is the vice president guilty of fear- mongering? CHAMBLISS: Well, the fact of the matter is what the vice president said is that we may very well be hit again. Those of us who have been dealing with the intelligence community since before September 11 and after have said that there is likely to be another attack.

And the vice president simply said, we need the right kind of leadership in the White House. Do you want President Bush, who has been aggressive in the war on terror, or do you want John Kerry, who simply has a record of flip-flopping on terror? That's exactly what he said. He didn't say that if John Kerry's elected, we'll be attacked again. But we have a drowning presidential campaign in the Kerry campaign and they're really scrambling on issues like this.

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, is that the way you interpreted the vice president's comments?

SEN. TOM HARKIN (D), IOWA: Well, I don't think it needs any interpreting. Just listen to his own words. He didn't say what my friend Senator Chambliss just said.

He said it very clearly. If we make the wrong decision -- and, clearly, you know what he said -- in eight weeks, if we make the wrong decision, we'll get hit again with a more devastating attack. This is fear-mongering at its worst. And I can't believe that a vice president of the United States would stoop that low. You know, I thought Dick Cheney limited his obscenities to the Senate floor, but it's clear that this is just another one of his obscene remarks.

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss?

CHAMBLISS: Well, Tom and I obviously have a strong disagreement about this. But all you have to do is listen to what he said. You take his whole statement in the context of what he said, he was pretty clear.

We've got a leader who has been aggressive in the war on terror. If we get hit again, he's the guy that ought to be there defending us, because he's done a great job since September 11 and he'll continue to do that.

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss, you deny he's making any linkage between a choice that Americans will be making on Election Day? There was a clear, clear linkage in that language.

CHAMBLISS: He's making a clear choice, Paula, between the fact of strong leadership from the Bush campaign and aggressively going after the war on terror and the weak position that Senator Kerry has taken. That's exactly what the vice president said.

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, what do you think this means at this stage of the campaign? What is John Kerry in for? What is George Bush in for?

HARKIN: Well, I think we're in for more of this attack dog, vicious kind of statements by Mr. Cheney. He's been known to do that in the past. He's infamous for that. He is the attack dog for this administration.

And keep in mind, it was Vice President Cheney who probably is more responsible than any other single person for getting us in the quagmire of Iraq. It was Vice President Cheney who was basically calling the shots at the White House. We know that. It was Vice President Cheney who bullied -- bullied -- the CIA to give the kind of information that would fit his own preconceived notions. It was Vice President Cheney who openly stated that Saddam Hussein had reconstituted nuclear weapons, when we know that was totally untrue. He knew it was untrue at the time.

And so here, we're just going to have the vice president I think more of this attack dog. You know when you think of Vice President Cheney and his viciousness in that kind of remark, the fact that he still has his hand in the till of Halliburton that is making money off of Iraq, I would say that Mr. Cheney is the 2004 version of Spiro Agnew.

ZAHN: Do you believe, Senator Chambliss, that Dick Cheney still has his hands in any Halliburton business?

CHAMBLISS: Absolutely not.

The man has gone. And, like I say, it's a drowning campaign. They're looking to anything. And, frankly, the facts as produced by the Senate Intelligence Committee on a unanimous vote contradict exactly what my friend Tom just said relative to the -- any pressure put on the intelligence community by the White House or any individual. And, also, the intelligence information given to the White House was exactly what was given to every member of Congress, as well as to the director of the CIA, relative to the nuclear program, relative to the weapons of mass destruction.

ZAHN: All right.

CHAMBLISS: We've been down that road. We need to talk about the real issues in this campaign.

ZAHN: Gentlemen, I want to move you both along to another issue. And that's the issue of a front page story in "The Boston Globe" today that examines military documents that show that President Bush failed to fulfill his military commitments in the Texas Air National Guard during the Vietnam War, and then Texans For Truth, a nonprofit group, released an ad. This is a group associated with MoveOn.org.

Let's watch it together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, TEXANS FOR TRUTH AD)

RET. LT. COL. BOB MINTZ, ALABAMA AIR NATIONAL GUARD: I heard George Bush get up and say I served in the 187 Air National Guard in Montgomery, Alabama. Really? That was my unit. And I don't remember seeing you there. So I called, friends, you know. Did you know that George served in our unit? I never saw him there. It would be impossible to be unseen in a unit of that size.

ANNOUNCER: Texans For Truth is responsible for the content of this advertisement.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, here is the response to the Bush/Cheney campaign to the ad today -- quote -- "The ad is baseless and false. Texans For Truth is a front group for the 527 MoveOn.org. The MoveOn.org adviser just moved over to the Kerry campaign. The president served honorably in the National Guard and was honorably discharged. This is another attempt by the Kerry campaign to divide Americans over the Vietnam War."

Did "The Boston Globe" get it wrong?

HARKIN: Well, all I know now is that when Mr. Bush earlier this year, said on a television program that he did his duty in the National Guard, we now know that's wrong. He missed six months of duty in 1972. The records show that. This is not some story. The records show that now.

And, in 1973, he missed three months of duty. Well, I'm sorry. When you miss six months of duty straight in one year and three months of duty straight the next year, you're not doing your duty in the National Guard. I think the president has some explaining to do.

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss, you get the last word tonight.

CHAMBLISS: Well, you know, I don't think the National Guard gives honorable discharges to anybody who doesn't do their duty. But this is an issue that Tom and I ought to agree on.

I don't agree with the swift boat ads. I don't agree with this ad. This is something that happened 35 and 40 years ago. We need to talk about what's going to happen in the next four years, and we need to move on. Senator Kerry served honorably in the United States Navy. He deserved every accolade he got. George Bush served honorably in the National Guard. He was honorably discharged. That's history.

We need to talk about the future when it comes to who is going to do the best job of leading America for the next four years.

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, I saw you nodding in agreement with the first half of the statement, not the second half. Just a very brief rejoinder here.

HARKIN: Well, no, I'd love to talk about the future. But, after all, it's the Bush/Cheney team that keeps going after Mr. Kerry's record. And now it looks as though the president himself was not quite telling us the truth about his service. I think that means something.

It's not whether you served or didn't. I don't care whether you served or didn't. I don't think that ought not to be a litmus test. But you ought to be honest about it. And it looks as though the president was not being quite honest about his service in the National Guard.

ZAHN: Senators, we have got to leave there it. Tom Harkin, Saxby Chambliss, thank you both for your time tonight. Appreciate it.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: The war, the economy, the constant sparring over military service, all of these issues have been moving public opinion. We'll reveal the latest poll results in the most hotly contested battleground states when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: Here we are, right now, 55 days before the election. This is where we stand.

A nationwide CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows President Bush leading Senator Kerry 49 to 48 percent among all registered voters. The president has a wider lead, 52 to 45 percent among the all- important subset of likely voters. But as we all were reminded in the year 2000, the overall popular vote total isn't what gets a candidate into the White House. The results in each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, determine the votes in the Electoral College.

This year's Bush/Kerry race will boil down to the results in just a few showdown states. Tonight, we reveal the newest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll numbers from four of those states.

First, Missouri. The president is comfortably ahead among both registered voters and likely voters. President Bush won Missouri by three percentage points in the year 2000. The Show-Me State is worth 11 electoral votes this year. And then, in Washington state, where another 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, Senator Kerry is ahead among both likely and registered voters.

Next, Pennsylvania. Check out these numbers. Al Gore won here in the year 2000 and John Kerry desperately needs to hold the Keystone State's 21 electoral votes. Our new poll numbers show this year's presidential race is dead even among both likely voters and registered voters.

Finally, Ohio, 20 electoral votes and a must-win state for President Bush. And our poll shows the president making something headway among likely voters, where he now has an eight-point lead over Senator Kerry. The race is tighter among registered voters in Ohio. Even so, the president numbers are still stronger than they were just three weeks ago.

There's an awful lot to digest here. We're going to talk it over with our regular contributor and "TIME" columnist Joe Klein. And joining us from Washington tonight is "USA Today" Washington bureau chief Susan Page.

Welcome to both of you.

JOE KLEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hi, Paula.

SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "USA TODAY": Thank you, Paula.

ZAHN: So, Susan, crunch all these numbers together. How do the campaigns view them?

PAGE: I think we've had a very steady race, very close. And what we're seeing now is the beginning of some movement to George Bush.

In two of these states, Ohio and Missouri, we polled just before the Democratic Convention. In both these states, President Bush has moved into a lead he didn't hold then. He now has a lead outside the margin of error in both Ohio and Missouri. That's the first time in the 12 battleground state polls we've done that any candidate can claim a statistically significant lead. So I think we're seeing a race that continues to be close, but it's clear that the momentum is now on George Bush's side.

ZAHN: Why is the battleground shrinking, Joe?

KLEIN: Well, I don't know that the battleground is actually shrinking. I mean, we've got a long way to go, but it's

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: No, but these numbers are not positive for John Kerry. You're not going to put a positive spin on those?

KLEIN: Oh, no, of course not.

Everything that Susan said is right. We just don't know how many people are going to come out to vote. And we don't know what's going to happen in the next 55 days. Clearly, the Kerry campaign has made a series of wildly stupid tactical decisions over the summer.

ZAHN: For starters, reacting much too slowly for to the swift boat ads.

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: No, hat isn't for starters. For starters, not attacking George Bush the way Bush attacked Kerry last week. And the reason why they did that was because their focus groups told them that America wants an optimistic candidate with a positive plan for the future.

And, as James Carville has said, there hasn't been a focus group in the history of the world that didn't want an optimistic candidate with a positive plan for the future. But you saw the results in the poll after you saw an incredibly negative convention last week. So the Kerry campaign can right itself, but so far, and even up to and including his speech today about Iraq, I'm haven't seen much evidence that they're going to.

ZAHN: Susan, do you have faith that someone in the Kerry campaign will make the kind of choices Joe's talking about? There is a feeling out there that perhaps John Kerry's listening to just too many people right now.

PAGE: Well, lots of concern among Democrats.

And the result has been we've seen more strategists come in to work for the Kerry campaign, even more voices for the senator to hear from. I think, in the end, it's not the advisers, though. It's the candidate. And one thing we know about John Kerry from his previous races is that he tends to become more focused, a better candidate, at the end, especially if he's behind. He did that in the Democratic primaries. He did that in his 1996 reelection race against Bill Weld, a closely watched and important race in his Senate career.

And so some Democrats are hoping that they'll see the same thing now, that he'll really buckle down. He hasn't been the most articulate, effective candidate in making his case. They're hoping that's about to start.

ZAHN: But if he's going to be the comeback kid, which Bill Weld said he was in race Bill Weld lost to him in Massachusetts, he's going to have to confront dead on, isn't it, what Cheney had to say?

KLEIN: Well, it's not so much what Cheney had -- what Cheney had to say was outside the bounds of reasonable politics. And it also opens the question, what if God forbid we get hit between now and the election?

The key thing, though, is that we have this major debate on Iraq now, and neither side is telling the truth. This is a debate that's empty of content. Today, John Kerry kept on reiterating the $200 billion. Well, the American people would have loved, would be happy to spend the $200 billion if it actually made us safer. But the facts on the ground, you know, the stories in the paper today show that it hasn't made us safer. And we're in real danger of losing there.

There are whole vast areas of Iraq where the American people, where the American military can't go now that are in control -- in the control of the terrorists. And so instead of challenging Bush directly on what he's doing in Iraq right now, Kerry was still mired in the past, decisions he made two years ago. You know, the question is, if George Bush is this macho, tough fighter in the war on terrorism, why is he running such a sensitive war in Iraq?

ZAHN: And, of course, when Joe refers to sensitive war on Iraq, that, of course, is a comment that was pulled from one of John Kerry's speeches that the Republicans have been using to accuse him of being soft on the war on terror, right, Susan?

PAGE: Yes, that's right.

Now, I think the issue that is driving this election right now is fear of terrorism. I don't think that Vice President Cheney's remark was an accident. We find in our poll that people now say terrorism is the most important issue, equally important with the economy, in determining their vote. And even in a state where John Kerry's doing well, in Washington state, where he has a lead of about eight points, voters say they prefer George Bush when it comes to terrorism.

I think this is a hurdle that John Kerry still needs to get over if he's going to have a chance to win the election in November.

ZAHN: Quick last word, Joe.

KLEIN: Well, if he's going to do that, he has to separate the war against terrorism from the war in Iraq. They're not the same thing, despite what you hear Republicans saying. And...

ZAHN: Well, even in the president's remarks today, there was a clear linkage, he said, between the war on terror and -- or at least the war in Iraq and making Americans feel safe.

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: What the Republicans want you to believe is that somehow Saddam Hussein was connected with 9/11, even if subliminally, that's just not true. But Kerry hasn't made a clear case on anything with regard to this.

ZAHN: Joe Klein, Susan Page, if you would, stay right where you are. Don't breathe. We have more politics and more states to cover.

OK, you can breathe now, Joe.

(LAUGHTER)

ZAHN: We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: And welcome back.

More now in our look at voters in the key battleground states. The focus for the moment, Missouri. Our CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll asked voters in that state, which of the following four issues will be most important to them when voting for president? No. 1 on the minds of registered voters is the economy, cited by 34 percent. That's the same as July's poll results; 25 percent say terrorism. That's up six points from July; 18 percent list health care, while another 18 percent cite Iraq.

Both of those issues have lost importance to voters since midsummer. And as they think about the economy, a major concern for Missouri voters is uncertainty about jobs.

Ed Lavandera takes a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIDGET DAILEY, UNEMPLOYED WORKER: Let's go. We don't want to be late.

ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If there's a silver lining to being unemployed, Bridget Dailey finds it in walking her five children to school through the small Saint Louis suburb of Normandy. But as she takes the walk every morning, Bridget has one wish. BRIDGET DAILEY: I would just like to feel a little bit of security, where I don't feel any sense of security right where -- in our financial situation that we're in right now.

LAVANDERA: She was laid off from her job handling reservations for American Airlines a year ago And hasn't been able to find steady work since. So with less money coming in, the Dailey family has scaled back. There are no more vacations, no dinners out on the town. Instead of two cars, there's just one now.

BRIAN DAILEY, MISSOURI RESIDENT: I missed the train.

LAVANDERA: And Brian Dailey, Bridget's husband, rides the bus to his overnight shift at the local utility company.

BRIAN DAILEY: I live on public transportation.

LAVANDERA: Brian also works part-time with a catering company and a limousine service.

BRIDGET DAILEY: OK. We don't need anything from here.

LAVANDERA: Grocery shopping is a test of creativity for the family.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I need to get something for dinner tonight. I only have $20 to spend.

LAVANDERA: Bridget says she's seen the cost of everything go up in the last year. It's all about penny-pinching at the grocery store for a family of seven.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I used to buy meat from the deli for them because I knew they would eat it. I hated when they would come home and their food would still be in their lunch box. And now it's $6.99 a pound. I said, sorry, guys, peanut butter and jelly or some baloney that's prepackaged stuff or whatever. I just simply can't afford it anymore.

LAVANDERA: Bridget says her situation isn't unique. She feels like a typical Missouri family, struggling to make ends meet.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I feel we are pretty typical. I talk to people in my parish where my kids go to school. And I think, if you polled them, they'd feel the same way too. They are not any better off, and most of them would say they're worse off in the last four years.

LAVANDERA (on camera): Four years ago, unemployment figures in Missouri hit a low of 2.9 percent. But then the state spiralled into recession and those figures jumped up to 5.5 percent.

BRIAN DAILEY: I think we're kind of like treading water, basically. I can see light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a long tunnel.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): Brian says he's actually making less money at his job. He hasn't had a raise in recent years, and a new union contract doesn't provide health benefits, so he has to pay almost $2,000 a year for insurance. That protects his children, so he's grateful to have a job.

BRIAN DAILEY: I thank God every day that I do have a job. And I go to church across the street every Sunday and get down on my knees and thank him.

LAVANDERA: Back at the grocery store, Bridget is checking out. She had $20 to spend.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Your total is $16.04, please.

LAVANDERA: She saved $3.96.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I made it. I should have gotten more ground beef and I should probably have got some more tortillas, but we'll make do with what we have tonight.

LAVANDERA: These days, making do is all the Dailey family can do. They just hope it will all change soon, because a family vacation sure does sound nice.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: And that was CNN's Ed Lavandera.

Now, while Missouri waits for an economic revival, there is another battleground state enjoying a boom and attracting newcomers looking for a fresh start. One family follows the sun. And what they found is coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAULA ZAHN, HOST: Florida, of course, definitely one of the battleground states. And today, disaster relief is on the way to the victims of Hurricane Frances as they try to put their lives back together.

President Bush authorized $2 billion in supplemental federal aid, and he flew to Florida to inspect the damage. Mr. Bush also helped distribute supplies.

But even though Florida has been hit hard by two hurricanes in a one-month stretch, its economic situation is much different than other toss-up states like Missouri.

Here's CNN's David Mattingly.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Bill and Rene Ranieri (ph) take the youngest of their six children to the beach almost every day. The surf has become their therapy.

RENEE RANIERI, MOVED TO FLORIDA: You get to forget every problem you have, at least until you go back home.

MATTINGLY: After he was laid off from his job in Colorado, Bill, a healthcare administrator and marketer, went an entire year with no job offers. So they took what little money they had left and moved to Florida.

BILL RANIERI, UNEMPLOYED WORKER: Florida is growing in leaps and bounds, as I believe you know, and healthcare is a very large sector here.

MATTINGLY: It's a calculated move the Ranieris aren't alone in making. The Florida job market consistently outpaces the rest of the country, a phenomenon due largely to a sunshine migration.

(on camera) People are moving to Florida at the rate of 1,000 a day, according to some estimates, and they're not coming here to play. They're moving here to stay, to live and to work. And when they do, they demand more goods and services, which in turn creates more jobs.

(voice-over) The old economic sectors of tourism, citrus and seniors aren't alone anymore in driving Florida's economy. When the rest of the country recently dipped into a recession, it was real estate that kept Florida growing, creating new jobs in construction and sales.

SANDY PALKOVIC, REAL ESTATE AGENT: Forgive me. But as I'm sitting with a contract pending, I have to worry and always take my cell phone calls.

MATTINGLY: Sandy Palkovic, for example, quit her job with the state of Florida to sell real estate, jumping into the state's burgeoning service sector.

PALKOVIC: I made a leap of faith, and it has just turned out to be a wonderful experience.

MATTINGLY: But while Palkovic expects to eventually make more money than she did in her old job, she now pays a lot for insurance that she used to get for free, a common complaint among service sector employees.

DAVID DENSLOW, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA ECONOMIST: There are also a lot of people in the rest of the country looking for jobs of that sort, many of them willing to migrate here to fill those positions.

MATTINGLY: Strangely enough, even hurricanes produce jobs in Florida. Experts say after a momentary chilling effect on the state's economy, rebuilding after a hurricane generates more spending, more jobs and more people moving in.

MARK VITNER, SENIOR ECONOMIST, WACHOVIA: Very quickly, we begin to see money pour into Florida from FEMA and other government agencies and insurance companies, and that money gets put to work pretty quickly.

B. RANIERI: These two items were purchased by my brother-in-law. MATTINGLY: After selling all their furniture just to pay for their move to Florida, the biggest difficulty for the Ranieris is not in finding a job, but finding one to match Bill's previous six-figure salary.

R. RANIERI: They laugh if you walk in for a $30,000 a year job. They're -- looking at six-figure incomes, they're harder to find, those jobs.

MATTINGLY: So in the meantime, they will try to make the most of the perks that come from living in the Sunshine State.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: Once again that report from David Mattingly.

For more perspective on Florida, the impact of hurricanes Charley and Frances and the state's role in the election, I am joined in Miami by Tom Fiedler, the executive editor of the "Miami Herald."

Welcome, Tom. Good to see you.

TOM FIEDLER, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "MIAMI HERALD": Thank you, Paula. Good to be here.

ZAHN: Where does the election lie tonight in the state of Florida in the wake of these two hurricanes in less than a month period of time?

FIEDLER: It probably lies fairly dormant here, at least for now. I think that the polling going into the Republican convention and maybe more appropriately here, into Hurricane Charley, showed that it was too close to call. That's where it had been, really since last spring.

I would expect that -- that the president may have closed the gap a little bit, but I think what's, perhaps, interesting here in Florida is that when Hurricane Frances began to appear on the horizon, the -- most of the local media here, both newspapers and the broadcast media, focused so much on Hurricane Frances and its potential for destruction that it just drowned out, in many ways it knocked off the air completely what was going on in the political campaign, including President Bush's acceptance speech on Thursday night.

ZAHN: And Senator Kerry is in a bit of a box, is he not, in your state? It's not like he can go down and do a photo op right now. He's not able to hand out $2 billion in supplemental federal aid, and he's up against two Bushes, isn't he?

FIEDLER: Yes. Precisely. I think he would run the risk of appearing to try to exploit the situation by coming to Florida. He's got to be very careful in how he handles this.

At some point, it may be OK for him to come down and just say that, "If I am president, it's good for me to have an appreciation of what's happened here." But in the short-term, I think he's got to stay away.

President Bush, on the other hand, is -- it's not only appropriate; I think it's almost a requisite that he come down and -- and be seen as empathetic, be seen as the leader of the recovery effort. And it certainly doesn't hurt to come down with $2 billion in your pocket, as he did today.

ZAHN: Your state has a lot of military personnel. How is the issue of Iraq playing in Florida?

FIEDLER: For the first time, I think we began to see, particularly in the early summer, some doubts by military people and military retirees about the course of the policy.

In fact, those doubts reached such a level that President Bush felt it necessary to come and campaign in the Panhandle, which you would think would be just out of the question, he would have it nailed down.

But you know, again, right now people are concerned mostly about rebuilding their lives, and the rest of the campaign issues seem very distant.

ZAHN: That may be true, Tom. But finally tonight, all of America is focused on this number of more than 1,000 men and women in the armed forces having been killed. Just a quick thought on that?

FIEDLER: When you get over a milestone like that, it does, I think, give people pause. But I think this is one of those times when you stop and reflect.

And so to the extent that we might see people attempting to think about and measure the impact of the loss of 1,000 lives over the next few days, that's -- that's going to be a part of it. Whether people in Florida are going to link that, again, with President Bush and are apt to be moved by it, hard to say. I don't think right now.

ZAHN: Tom Fiedler, thank you for your perspective tonight. Appreciate it.

FIEDLER: I appreciate the invitation.

ZAHN: Good luck. We are keeping our fingers crossed that Ivan doesn't hit your state.

FIEDLER: From your lips to God's ears. I hope so.

ZAHN: All right. Take care.

Winning a big state like Florida might put you in the White House, but you've got to have a willing Congress to get what you want. The battle for control of Congress this election, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) ZAHN: The race most Americans will watch this fall is obviously the battle for the Oval Office, but it is hardly the only contest. Every seat in the House of Representatives and one third of the seats in the Senate are on the ballot in November.

Right now, Republicans control both Houses of Congress. Is that grip secure?

Here's CNN congressional correspondent Joe Johns.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Not too long ago, Democrats were almost exuberant over their chances to take control of either the House or Senate or both. Now, those prospects are dimming.

Veteran congressional race watcher Stuart Rothenberg says his latest analysis says winning the House appears to be out of reach for the Democrats and even recapturing the Senate is a stretch.

STUART ROTHENBERG, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: The Senate is still in play, although it's harder now for the Democrats to make that argument. And I think you have to say the Republicans have a clear advantage in the fight for the Senate and might even be able to increase their margin by a seat or two.

JOHNS: Right now, Republicans control 51 seats in the Senate. Democrats have 48. There's one independent who votes Democratic.

To gain outright control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up two seats. Their best hope is Illinois, where Barak Obama has a commanding lead for a Republican open seat.

Democrats also have high hopes for Alaska, where former Democratic governor Tony Knowles is looked in a tight race with freshman U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski.

Republicans can all but count on winning a Democratic open seat in Georgia, and they've mounted a serious challenge against the most powerful Democrat in the Congress, Tom Daschle, in his home state of South Dakota.

Daschle says he's confident.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D), SOUTH DAKOTA: I've never felt better about our circumstances and my optimism and confidence about our ability to win.

JOHNS: But the state voted overwhelmingly for George Bush four years ago. Daschle knows this and has made his ability to work with Bush a feature of his campaign.

ROTHENBERG: I think he's in real trouble. I mean, I think he's probably ahead by a point or two right now, but this race is a toss- up. John Thune, the Republican, entered the race relatively late. He's catching up; he's closing. It's all about, again, late deciding Republican voters who are going to vote for George W. Bush. How many of them are going to switch over and vote for Tom Daschle?

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Do I forget the lessons of September 11 and take the word of a mad man?

JOHNS: After President Bush's convention, Democrats running in red states, states where the president won in 2000, face the possibility of an energized Republican electorate.

Across the country, there are 34 Senate races. Of those, only eight are considered competitive. Six of those eight states voted strongly for George W. Bush in 2000.

Both sides have recruited some top-notch candidates: Democrat Ken Salazar to run against Republican beer magnate Pete Coors in Colorado; and Democratic Congressman Brad Carson to run against former GOP congressman and family physician, Tom Coburn in Oklahoma.

But the Democratic candidates were banking on a Kerry wave, and that wave has yet to materialize.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: That was CNN congressional correspondent Joe Johns.

We're going to get more analysis on the congressional races. Joining us again, CNN contributor and "TIME" columnist, Joe Klein. And in Washington, Susan Page, "USA Today" Washington bureau chief.

Welcome back.

SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "USA TODAY": Hi.

ZAHN: Susan, is there any shot Republicans lose control of the House?

PAGE: No, I think there's no possibility. It's just hard to even envision any scenario where they lose control of the House. I think control of the Senate, though, is still very much in play.

ZAHN: Do you agree with that, Joe?

JOE KLEIN, COLUMNIST, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Yes, but first a disclaimer. Whenever you folks see some national guy like me telling you that Tom Daschle is either going to win or lose, don't believe us, because these are very, very complicated races, the statewide Senate races. And only...

ZAHN: You're too smart to ever make those kind of predictions, Joe. You haven't made one here on the air lately.

KLEIN: I make predictions, but the fact is that you have to be watching these races on a day-to-day-to-day basis. You can -- you can spout general rules, like, you know, South Dakotans won't want to give up the power that they have by having, you know, Tom Daschle as the Senate minority leader.

But those are general rules, and each individual race is different.

ZAHN: What does it tell us, though? You see Bill Frist out there, actively campaigning against Tom Daschle.

KLEIN: Well, it tells us that Bill Frist is running for president. It's, you know, a long-standing tradition that the majority leader doesn't campaign against the minority leader.

But there's a new tradition in the Republican Party, which is that the toughest candidate wins. And so Bill Frist is trying to prove that he's as tough as he can be.

ZAHN: There is one candidate in particular that is getting a lot of attention, Barak Obama of Illinois. Do you think that's a pretty good shot he'll win, Susan?

PAGE: Yes, I think he's -- I think, actually, Paula, there's a greater chance that you will be elected senator from Illinois than Alan Keyes. There's a...

ZAHN: Well, you know, I actually did grow up in Illinois, Susan. You don't know that. Naperville, Illinois. I could legitimately run there.

PAGE: And Alan Keyes...

KLEIN: What's your position on the Ag Bill?

PAGE: And Alan Keyes did not grow up in Illinois, we should remember. We know Barak Obama almost will certainly be just the third African-American to be elected to the Senate since Reconstruction.

He's already causing an incredible buzz. I was in the convention hall when he gave the keynote speech in Boston at the Democratic convention. It was one of the best political speeches I've ever heard.

And there's a -- there's a big audience waiting for him here of eager Democrats for his election. And to see if he can deliver as a senator and office holder the way he delivered as a speaker at that convention.

ZAHN: Are there any other races that you find equally captivating in the Senate?

KLEIN: Well, you know, the Barak Obama race is a key one. But the Senate race in North Carolina, where Erskine Bowles, who lost to Elizabeth Dole, is leading right now against a very popular Republican congressman, Burr, is an interesting one.

And this race down in Oklahoma is an interesting one, as well.

ZAHN: Final question about Bush coattails. Will they be very long at all?

PAGE: Well, I think that the Bush -- I think we've seen presidential coattails tend not to be very long at all. I mean, Bush had certainly no coattails at all in 2000 in that very narrow race.

But in some of these races if they turn out to be very close, some of these southern races, five important races for the Senate in the South, I think if Bush -- if Bush really carried the states in a big way, the advantage of a point or two that it might give to a Senate candidate could prove to be important.

KLEIN: Could I add -- could I add one more race?

ZAHN: You can.

KLEIN: And that is Mel Martinez, who -- who was the housing secretary in the -- in the Bush administration and won the Republican nomination down in Florida. A lot of people think that he's a real coming star, as well.

ZAHN: We'll keep our eye on both of those guys. Joe Klein, Susan page, thanks for your time.

Another campaign and a hard turn towards the absurd. He wants to be the second singing governor of the Lone Star State. Kinky Friedman's race when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: We have covered a wide range of politics so far tonight. So this might be a good time to look at a very unusual candidate.

Kinky Friedman guaranteed himself a place in music history as the singing Jewish cowboy. Well, he then moved on to writing mystery novels and hobnobbing with movie stars and presidents. Well, now he's trying out a new field, one that suits his Texas-sized taste for the absurd.

Our Bruce Burkhardt reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRUCE BURKHARDT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Is it possible, is it just possible that we may be looking at the next governor of the great state of Texas?

ARNOLD GARCIA, "AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN": Well, you know, Texas elected a country singer to the governorship in the 1940s. It's not -- it's not unprecedented that -- that this could happen.

(MUSIC)

BURKHARDT: You can't get much more politically incorrect than Kinky Friedman. He's been that way ever since he pioneered the Jewish country music genre with his band Kinky Friedman and the Texas Jew Boys. KINKY FRIEDMAN (I), TEXAS GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm a bastard child of twin cultures, Texas and Jewish. And the only thing that we have in common is we both like to wear our hats indoors.

(MUSIC)

BURKHARDT: The blend of Kinky's gift of satire with a genuine love of country music with songs like "Ain't Making Jews like Jesus Anymore" and "Ride 'em Jew Boy," Kinky had a cult following that never really hit it big.

So in the mid-80s, he turned to something else, writing mystery novels with himself, the Kinkster, as a private eye.

FRIEDMAN: I think there's 18 novels that I've churned out. I mean carefully crafted.

BURKHARDT: A talented writer, he counts both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush among his fans. Both have had him as a guest at the White House. Maybe that's what gave him a taste for politics.

FRIEDMAN: People are so fed up with career politicians lying to them and also, if Willie and Lance Armstrong stay out of the race, I think you're talking to the next governor of Texas.

BURKHARDT: The election is not until 2006, but running as an independent, Kinky is wasting no time.

FRIEDMAN: Here's some campaign posters. How hard could it be? My friend, Bobby, big ole guy, he came over and said, "Kinky, these ones with the little Jew star are real popular."

BURKHARDT: But what started as kind of a joke has turned into something a bit more serious. Think California.

(on camera) You do think you have a shot?

FRIEDMAN: I'm not running to lose. I think Arnold has opened the door to a lot of things here in Texas.

Now we're going to the rescue ranch. One of my favorite places.

BURKHARDT (voice-over): One thing Kinky doesn't joke about is animals. He loves his animals.

FRIEDMAN: There's Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. Right?

BURKHARDT: Adjacent to Kinky's ranch here in the Texas hill country is his Utopia Rescue Ranch for stray dogs. If he were governor, he'd make Texas a no-kill state, no euthanizing unwanted dogs. And under a Friedman administration, declawing cats would be illegal.

FRIEDMAN: Special place in hell for anybody who declaws a cat.

BURKHARDT: As for other issues his positions are a little hazier. Take abortion.

FRIEDMAN: I'm not pro-life and I'm not pro-choice. I'm pro football.

BURKHARDT (on camera): That's evasive, man. That's evasive.

FRIEDMAN: I'll tell you what; let's write that chapter of Texas history together.

BURKHARDT: Oh, good. That's good.

(voice-over) Kinky is counting on the support of friends like legendary country songwriter Billy Joe Shaver, whose birthday party in Austin was a rare occasion for Kinky to perform.

BILLY JOE SHAVER, SINGER: I don't think there's any experience problem, because Kinky's been a politician all his life.

BURKHARDT: Also on hand, another potential supporter, Robert Duvall.

ROBERT DUVALL, ACTOR: Don't turn your back on him -- don't turn your back on him when you've got your woman around.

BURKHARDT: OK, so some of his support is lukewarm.

Still, Kinky believes it's a job he can get, and it's a job he can do.

FRIEDMAN: First of all, this job is a notoriously easy gig. The governor of Texas requires no heavy lifting. The lieutenant governor does all the heavy lifting. But the governor should do some spiritual lifting. That's where I come in.

BURKHARDT (on camera): How long is the term, four years?

(voice-over) It's a long way off, 2006. In the meantime, Kinky has picked up a couple of tips from Teresa Heinz Kerry about dealing with the media.

FRIEDMAN: You know what I have to say to that? Shove it!

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: We've heard that before. That was Bruce Burkhardt reporting.

We want to add that Kinky Friedman has said had if he wins this election, his first act will be to demand a recount. Be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: Tomorrow, was it just Abu Ghraib or was the torture and abuse of prisoners in Iraq much more widespread? We'll look into that.

"LARRY KING LIVE" is next. Thanks for joining us tonight. Good night.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired September 8, 2004 - 20:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Now it's serious. A nasty campaign gets even nastier.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If we make the wrong choice, then the danger is that we'll get hit again.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This statement by his vice president, it is dishonorable and it is undignified.

ZAHN: The candidates push.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We were right to make America safer by removing Saddam Hussein from power.

ZAHN: And shove.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They are raiding the Social Security trust fund in order to pay for their mistakes in Iraq.

ZAHN: Partisan ads.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

NARRATOR: Protect Medicare.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

BUSH: American jobs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

KERRY: And I approved this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

BUSH: And I approved this message. (END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Stir up passions.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We need to roll them back.

Tonight, an exclusive new poll of four key battleground states.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: And good evening and welcome. Glad to have you with us tonight.

We start off with presidential politics. The attacks are getting sharper as the time is getting shorter. It's 55 days and counting until the presidential election. Of course, it isn't just one election, but 51 separate elections in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia. Before we show you the latest poll numbers in four crucial showdown states, we take you out on the campaign trail.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN (voice-over): Senator Kerry came to Cincinnati's historic Union Terminal to launch his newest attack on President Bush. The location was carefully chosen. Two years ago, the president stood in this same place to make his case for war in Iraq, a war his opponent now portrays as a domestic policy failure.

KERRY: The cost of the president's go-it-alone policy in Iraq is now $200 billion and counting; $200 billion for Iraq, but they tell us we can't afford after-school programs for our children.

ZAHN: At one point, Kerry's speech was interrupted by a heckler, a man the Kerry camp later identified as a Kentucky spokesman for the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth. Vietnam as an issue won't go away.

Today, in fact, it's cutting both ways. "The Boston Globe" reexamined George W. Bush's military records and reports he signed papers in 1968 and 1973 pledging to meet National Guard training commitments or be called up to active duty. The paper says he neither met the commitments nor faced the punishment. For months, the White House has responded to questions about the president's National Guard service by saying his honorable discharge proves he fulfilled all his requirements.

SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The president was proud of his service in the National Guard. He fulfilled his duty. He was honorably discharged.

ZAHN: "The Globe" got a similar response last night. There is no doubt the president was on duty today. In Washington, he met with lawmakers to discuss reforms proposed by the 9/11 Commission.

Next came a trip to Florida, touring hurricane damage, promising federal aid to the victims.

BUSH: This morning, I signed legislation providing $2 billion in additional funding for cleanup and FEMA relief operations.

ZAHN: It's an incumbent's best advantage, a chance to look presidential, compassionate and above the fray.

Back on the campaign trail, the clash of the running mates is fraying tempers. Yesterday, Vice President Dick Cheney seemed to say a Democratic victory would invite terrorists to strike America again.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHENEY: It's absolutely essential that eight weeks from today on November 2, we make the right choice, because, if we make the wrong choice, then the danger is that we'll get hit again.

ZAHN: Senator John Edwards hit back this morning, hard.

EDWARDS: This statement by his vice president was intended not only to divide us. In addition to that, it is dishonorable and it is undignified.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: It is getting pretty rough out there, as you can see. We're going to discuss the candidates and the issues with a pair of U.S. senators. Republican Saxby Chambliss of Georgia is a member of the Armed Services and Select Intelligence committees. He joins us from Capitol Hill.

Good to see you, sir.

SEN. SAXBY CHAMBLISS (R), GEORGIA: You too, Paula.

ZAHN: Also, let's welcome Democratic Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, a member of the Appropriations Committee, who joins us from our Washington bureau.

Glad to have you both of you with us.

Senators, I want to start off tonight by sharing with our audience some of the comments that are being called fear-mongering by some Americans, when the vice president suggested that if John Kerry is elected, that the danger is we'll get hit again. Let's listen to more of the vice president's controversial comments.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHENEY: We'll be hit in a way that'll be devastating from the standpoint of the United States and then we'll fall back into the pre- 9/11 mind-set, if you will, that in fact these terrorist attacks are just criminal acts and that we're not really at war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss, is the vice president guilty of fear- mongering? CHAMBLISS: Well, the fact of the matter is what the vice president said is that we may very well be hit again. Those of us who have been dealing with the intelligence community since before September 11 and after have said that there is likely to be another attack.

And the vice president simply said, we need the right kind of leadership in the White House. Do you want President Bush, who has been aggressive in the war on terror, or do you want John Kerry, who simply has a record of flip-flopping on terror? That's exactly what he said. He didn't say that if John Kerry's elected, we'll be attacked again. But we have a drowning presidential campaign in the Kerry campaign and they're really scrambling on issues like this.

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, is that the way you interpreted the vice president's comments?

SEN. TOM HARKIN (D), IOWA: Well, I don't think it needs any interpreting. Just listen to his own words. He didn't say what my friend Senator Chambliss just said.

He said it very clearly. If we make the wrong decision -- and, clearly, you know what he said -- in eight weeks, if we make the wrong decision, we'll get hit again with a more devastating attack. This is fear-mongering at its worst. And I can't believe that a vice president of the United States would stoop that low. You know, I thought Dick Cheney limited his obscenities to the Senate floor, but it's clear that this is just another one of his obscene remarks.

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss?

CHAMBLISS: Well, Tom and I obviously have a strong disagreement about this. But all you have to do is listen to what he said. You take his whole statement in the context of what he said, he was pretty clear.

We've got a leader who has been aggressive in the war on terror. If we get hit again, he's the guy that ought to be there defending us, because he's done a great job since September 11 and he'll continue to do that.

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss, you deny he's making any linkage between a choice that Americans will be making on Election Day? There was a clear, clear linkage in that language.

CHAMBLISS: He's making a clear choice, Paula, between the fact of strong leadership from the Bush campaign and aggressively going after the war on terror and the weak position that Senator Kerry has taken. That's exactly what the vice president said.

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, what do you think this means at this stage of the campaign? What is John Kerry in for? What is George Bush in for?

HARKIN: Well, I think we're in for more of this attack dog, vicious kind of statements by Mr. Cheney. He's been known to do that in the past. He's infamous for that. He is the attack dog for this administration.

And keep in mind, it was Vice President Cheney who probably is more responsible than any other single person for getting us in the quagmire of Iraq. It was Vice President Cheney who was basically calling the shots at the White House. We know that. It was Vice President Cheney who bullied -- bullied -- the CIA to give the kind of information that would fit his own preconceived notions. It was Vice President Cheney who openly stated that Saddam Hussein had reconstituted nuclear weapons, when we know that was totally untrue. He knew it was untrue at the time.

And so here, we're just going to have the vice president I think more of this attack dog. You know when you think of Vice President Cheney and his viciousness in that kind of remark, the fact that he still has his hand in the till of Halliburton that is making money off of Iraq, I would say that Mr. Cheney is the 2004 version of Spiro Agnew.

ZAHN: Do you believe, Senator Chambliss, that Dick Cheney still has his hands in any Halliburton business?

CHAMBLISS: Absolutely not.

The man has gone. And, like I say, it's a drowning campaign. They're looking to anything. And, frankly, the facts as produced by the Senate Intelligence Committee on a unanimous vote contradict exactly what my friend Tom just said relative to the -- any pressure put on the intelligence community by the White House or any individual. And, also, the intelligence information given to the White House was exactly what was given to every member of Congress, as well as to the director of the CIA, relative to the nuclear program, relative to the weapons of mass destruction.

ZAHN: All right.

CHAMBLISS: We've been down that road. We need to talk about the real issues in this campaign.

ZAHN: Gentlemen, I want to move you both along to another issue. And that's the issue of a front page story in "The Boston Globe" today that examines military documents that show that President Bush failed to fulfill his military commitments in the Texas Air National Guard during the Vietnam War, and then Texans For Truth, a nonprofit group, released an ad. This is a group associated with MoveOn.org.

Let's watch it together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, TEXANS FOR TRUTH AD)

RET. LT. COL. BOB MINTZ, ALABAMA AIR NATIONAL GUARD: I heard George Bush get up and say I served in the 187 Air National Guard in Montgomery, Alabama. Really? That was my unit. And I don't remember seeing you there. So I called, friends, you know. Did you know that George served in our unit? I never saw him there. It would be impossible to be unseen in a unit of that size.

ANNOUNCER: Texans For Truth is responsible for the content of this advertisement.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, here is the response to the Bush/Cheney campaign to the ad today -- quote -- "The ad is baseless and false. Texans For Truth is a front group for the 527 MoveOn.org. The MoveOn.org adviser just moved over to the Kerry campaign. The president served honorably in the National Guard and was honorably discharged. This is another attempt by the Kerry campaign to divide Americans over the Vietnam War."

Did "The Boston Globe" get it wrong?

HARKIN: Well, all I know now is that when Mr. Bush earlier this year, said on a television program that he did his duty in the National Guard, we now know that's wrong. He missed six months of duty in 1972. The records show that. This is not some story. The records show that now.

And, in 1973, he missed three months of duty. Well, I'm sorry. When you miss six months of duty straight in one year and three months of duty straight the next year, you're not doing your duty in the National Guard. I think the president has some explaining to do.

ZAHN: Senator Chambliss, you get the last word tonight.

CHAMBLISS: Well, you know, I don't think the National Guard gives honorable discharges to anybody who doesn't do their duty. But this is an issue that Tom and I ought to agree on.

I don't agree with the swift boat ads. I don't agree with this ad. This is something that happened 35 and 40 years ago. We need to talk about what's going to happen in the next four years, and we need to move on. Senator Kerry served honorably in the United States Navy. He deserved every accolade he got. George Bush served honorably in the National Guard. He was honorably discharged. That's history.

We need to talk about the future when it comes to who is going to do the best job of leading America for the next four years.

ZAHN: Senator Harkin, I saw you nodding in agreement with the first half of the statement, not the second half. Just a very brief rejoinder here.

HARKIN: Well, no, I'd love to talk about the future. But, after all, it's the Bush/Cheney team that keeps going after Mr. Kerry's record. And now it looks as though the president himself was not quite telling us the truth about his service. I think that means something.

It's not whether you served or didn't. I don't care whether you served or didn't. I don't think that ought not to be a litmus test. But you ought to be honest about it. And it looks as though the president was not being quite honest about his service in the National Guard.

ZAHN: Senators, we have got to leave there it. Tom Harkin, Saxby Chambliss, thank you both for your time tonight. Appreciate it.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: The war, the economy, the constant sparring over military service, all of these issues have been moving public opinion. We'll reveal the latest poll results in the most hotly contested battleground states when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: Here we are, right now, 55 days before the election. This is where we stand.

A nationwide CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows President Bush leading Senator Kerry 49 to 48 percent among all registered voters. The president has a wider lead, 52 to 45 percent among the all- important subset of likely voters. But as we all were reminded in the year 2000, the overall popular vote total isn't what gets a candidate into the White House. The results in each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, determine the votes in the Electoral College.

This year's Bush/Kerry race will boil down to the results in just a few showdown states. Tonight, we reveal the newest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll numbers from four of those states.

First, Missouri. The president is comfortably ahead among both registered voters and likely voters. President Bush won Missouri by three percentage points in the year 2000. The Show-Me State is worth 11 electoral votes this year. And then, in Washington state, where another 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, Senator Kerry is ahead among both likely and registered voters.

Next, Pennsylvania. Check out these numbers. Al Gore won here in the year 2000 and John Kerry desperately needs to hold the Keystone State's 21 electoral votes. Our new poll numbers show this year's presidential race is dead even among both likely voters and registered voters.

Finally, Ohio, 20 electoral votes and a must-win state for President Bush. And our poll shows the president making something headway among likely voters, where he now has an eight-point lead over Senator Kerry. The race is tighter among registered voters in Ohio. Even so, the president numbers are still stronger than they were just three weeks ago.

There's an awful lot to digest here. We're going to talk it over with our regular contributor and "TIME" columnist Joe Klein. And joining us from Washington tonight is "USA Today" Washington bureau chief Susan Page.

Welcome to both of you.

JOE KLEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hi, Paula.

SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "USA TODAY": Thank you, Paula.

ZAHN: So, Susan, crunch all these numbers together. How do the campaigns view them?

PAGE: I think we've had a very steady race, very close. And what we're seeing now is the beginning of some movement to George Bush.

In two of these states, Ohio and Missouri, we polled just before the Democratic Convention. In both these states, President Bush has moved into a lead he didn't hold then. He now has a lead outside the margin of error in both Ohio and Missouri. That's the first time in the 12 battleground state polls we've done that any candidate can claim a statistically significant lead. So I think we're seeing a race that continues to be close, but it's clear that the momentum is now on George Bush's side.

ZAHN: Why is the battleground shrinking, Joe?

KLEIN: Well, I don't know that the battleground is actually shrinking. I mean, we've got a long way to go, but it's

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: No, but these numbers are not positive for John Kerry. You're not going to put a positive spin on those?

KLEIN: Oh, no, of course not.

Everything that Susan said is right. We just don't know how many people are going to come out to vote. And we don't know what's going to happen in the next 55 days. Clearly, the Kerry campaign has made a series of wildly stupid tactical decisions over the summer.

ZAHN: For starters, reacting much too slowly for to the swift boat ads.

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: No, hat isn't for starters. For starters, not attacking George Bush the way Bush attacked Kerry last week. And the reason why they did that was because their focus groups told them that America wants an optimistic candidate with a positive plan for the future.

And, as James Carville has said, there hasn't been a focus group in the history of the world that didn't want an optimistic candidate with a positive plan for the future. But you saw the results in the poll after you saw an incredibly negative convention last week. So the Kerry campaign can right itself, but so far, and even up to and including his speech today about Iraq, I'm haven't seen much evidence that they're going to.

ZAHN: Susan, do you have faith that someone in the Kerry campaign will make the kind of choices Joe's talking about? There is a feeling out there that perhaps John Kerry's listening to just too many people right now.

PAGE: Well, lots of concern among Democrats.

And the result has been we've seen more strategists come in to work for the Kerry campaign, even more voices for the senator to hear from. I think, in the end, it's not the advisers, though. It's the candidate. And one thing we know about John Kerry from his previous races is that he tends to become more focused, a better candidate, at the end, especially if he's behind. He did that in the Democratic primaries. He did that in his 1996 reelection race against Bill Weld, a closely watched and important race in his Senate career.

And so some Democrats are hoping that they'll see the same thing now, that he'll really buckle down. He hasn't been the most articulate, effective candidate in making his case. They're hoping that's about to start.

ZAHN: But if he's going to be the comeback kid, which Bill Weld said he was in race Bill Weld lost to him in Massachusetts, he's going to have to confront dead on, isn't it, what Cheney had to say?

KLEIN: Well, it's not so much what Cheney had -- what Cheney had to say was outside the bounds of reasonable politics. And it also opens the question, what if God forbid we get hit between now and the election?

The key thing, though, is that we have this major debate on Iraq now, and neither side is telling the truth. This is a debate that's empty of content. Today, John Kerry kept on reiterating the $200 billion. Well, the American people would have loved, would be happy to spend the $200 billion if it actually made us safer. But the facts on the ground, you know, the stories in the paper today show that it hasn't made us safer. And we're in real danger of losing there.

There are whole vast areas of Iraq where the American people, where the American military can't go now that are in control -- in the control of the terrorists. And so instead of challenging Bush directly on what he's doing in Iraq right now, Kerry was still mired in the past, decisions he made two years ago. You know, the question is, if George Bush is this macho, tough fighter in the war on terrorism, why is he running such a sensitive war in Iraq?

ZAHN: And, of course, when Joe refers to sensitive war on Iraq, that, of course, is a comment that was pulled from one of John Kerry's speeches that the Republicans have been using to accuse him of being soft on the war on terror, right, Susan?

PAGE: Yes, that's right.

Now, I think the issue that is driving this election right now is fear of terrorism. I don't think that Vice President Cheney's remark was an accident. We find in our poll that people now say terrorism is the most important issue, equally important with the economy, in determining their vote. And even in a state where John Kerry's doing well, in Washington state, where he has a lead of about eight points, voters say they prefer George Bush when it comes to terrorism.

I think this is a hurdle that John Kerry still needs to get over if he's going to have a chance to win the election in November.

ZAHN: Quick last word, Joe.

KLEIN: Well, if he's going to do that, he has to separate the war against terrorism from the war in Iraq. They're not the same thing, despite what you hear Republicans saying. And...

ZAHN: Well, even in the president's remarks today, there was a clear linkage, he said, between the war on terror and -- or at least the war in Iraq and making Americans feel safe.

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: What the Republicans want you to believe is that somehow Saddam Hussein was connected with 9/11, even if subliminally, that's just not true. But Kerry hasn't made a clear case on anything with regard to this.

ZAHN: Joe Klein, Susan Page, if you would, stay right where you are. Don't breathe. We have more politics and more states to cover.

OK, you can breathe now, Joe.

(LAUGHTER)

ZAHN: We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: And welcome back.

More now in our look at voters in the key battleground states. The focus for the moment, Missouri. Our CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll asked voters in that state, which of the following four issues will be most important to them when voting for president? No. 1 on the minds of registered voters is the economy, cited by 34 percent. That's the same as July's poll results; 25 percent say terrorism. That's up six points from July; 18 percent list health care, while another 18 percent cite Iraq.

Both of those issues have lost importance to voters since midsummer. And as they think about the economy, a major concern for Missouri voters is uncertainty about jobs.

Ed Lavandera takes a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIDGET DAILEY, UNEMPLOYED WORKER: Let's go. We don't want to be late.

ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If there's a silver lining to being unemployed, Bridget Dailey finds it in walking her five children to school through the small Saint Louis suburb of Normandy. But as she takes the walk every morning, Bridget has one wish. BRIDGET DAILEY: I would just like to feel a little bit of security, where I don't feel any sense of security right where -- in our financial situation that we're in right now.

LAVANDERA: She was laid off from her job handling reservations for American Airlines a year ago And hasn't been able to find steady work since. So with less money coming in, the Dailey family has scaled back. There are no more vacations, no dinners out on the town. Instead of two cars, there's just one now.

BRIAN DAILEY, MISSOURI RESIDENT: I missed the train.

LAVANDERA: And Brian Dailey, Bridget's husband, rides the bus to his overnight shift at the local utility company.

BRIAN DAILEY: I live on public transportation.

LAVANDERA: Brian also works part-time with a catering company and a limousine service.

BRIDGET DAILEY: OK. We don't need anything from here.

LAVANDERA: Grocery shopping is a test of creativity for the family.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I need to get something for dinner tonight. I only have $20 to spend.

LAVANDERA: Bridget says she's seen the cost of everything go up in the last year. It's all about penny-pinching at the grocery store for a family of seven.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I used to buy meat from the deli for them because I knew they would eat it. I hated when they would come home and their food would still be in their lunch box. And now it's $6.99 a pound. I said, sorry, guys, peanut butter and jelly or some baloney that's prepackaged stuff or whatever. I just simply can't afford it anymore.

LAVANDERA: Bridget says her situation isn't unique. She feels like a typical Missouri family, struggling to make ends meet.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I feel we are pretty typical. I talk to people in my parish where my kids go to school. And I think, if you polled them, they'd feel the same way too. They are not any better off, and most of them would say they're worse off in the last four years.

LAVANDERA (on camera): Four years ago, unemployment figures in Missouri hit a low of 2.9 percent. But then the state spiralled into recession and those figures jumped up to 5.5 percent.

BRIAN DAILEY: I think we're kind of like treading water, basically. I can see light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a long tunnel.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): Brian says he's actually making less money at his job. He hasn't had a raise in recent years, and a new union contract doesn't provide health benefits, so he has to pay almost $2,000 a year for insurance. That protects his children, so he's grateful to have a job.

BRIAN DAILEY: I thank God every day that I do have a job. And I go to church across the street every Sunday and get down on my knees and thank him.

LAVANDERA: Back at the grocery store, Bridget is checking out. She had $20 to spend.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Your total is $16.04, please.

LAVANDERA: She saved $3.96.

BRIDGET DAILEY: I made it. I should have gotten more ground beef and I should probably have got some more tortillas, but we'll make do with what we have tonight.

LAVANDERA: These days, making do is all the Dailey family can do. They just hope it will all change soon, because a family vacation sure does sound nice.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: And that was CNN's Ed Lavandera.

Now, while Missouri waits for an economic revival, there is another battleground state enjoying a boom and attracting newcomers looking for a fresh start. One family follows the sun. And what they found is coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAULA ZAHN, HOST: Florida, of course, definitely one of the battleground states. And today, disaster relief is on the way to the victims of Hurricane Frances as they try to put their lives back together.

President Bush authorized $2 billion in supplemental federal aid, and he flew to Florida to inspect the damage. Mr. Bush also helped distribute supplies.

But even though Florida has been hit hard by two hurricanes in a one-month stretch, its economic situation is much different than other toss-up states like Missouri.

Here's CNN's David Mattingly.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Bill and Rene Ranieri (ph) take the youngest of their six children to the beach almost every day. The surf has become their therapy.

RENEE RANIERI, MOVED TO FLORIDA: You get to forget every problem you have, at least until you go back home.

MATTINGLY: After he was laid off from his job in Colorado, Bill, a healthcare administrator and marketer, went an entire year with no job offers. So they took what little money they had left and moved to Florida.

BILL RANIERI, UNEMPLOYED WORKER: Florida is growing in leaps and bounds, as I believe you know, and healthcare is a very large sector here.

MATTINGLY: It's a calculated move the Ranieris aren't alone in making. The Florida job market consistently outpaces the rest of the country, a phenomenon due largely to a sunshine migration.

(on camera) People are moving to Florida at the rate of 1,000 a day, according to some estimates, and they're not coming here to play. They're moving here to stay, to live and to work. And when they do, they demand more goods and services, which in turn creates more jobs.

(voice-over) The old economic sectors of tourism, citrus and seniors aren't alone anymore in driving Florida's economy. When the rest of the country recently dipped into a recession, it was real estate that kept Florida growing, creating new jobs in construction and sales.

SANDY PALKOVIC, REAL ESTATE AGENT: Forgive me. But as I'm sitting with a contract pending, I have to worry and always take my cell phone calls.

MATTINGLY: Sandy Palkovic, for example, quit her job with the state of Florida to sell real estate, jumping into the state's burgeoning service sector.

PALKOVIC: I made a leap of faith, and it has just turned out to be a wonderful experience.

MATTINGLY: But while Palkovic expects to eventually make more money than she did in her old job, she now pays a lot for insurance that she used to get for free, a common complaint among service sector employees.

DAVID DENSLOW, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA ECONOMIST: There are also a lot of people in the rest of the country looking for jobs of that sort, many of them willing to migrate here to fill those positions.

MATTINGLY: Strangely enough, even hurricanes produce jobs in Florida. Experts say after a momentary chilling effect on the state's economy, rebuilding after a hurricane generates more spending, more jobs and more people moving in.

MARK VITNER, SENIOR ECONOMIST, WACHOVIA: Very quickly, we begin to see money pour into Florida from FEMA and other government agencies and insurance companies, and that money gets put to work pretty quickly.

B. RANIERI: These two items were purchased by my brother-in-law. MATTINGLY: After selling all their furniture just to pay for their move to Florida, the biggest difficulty for the Ranieris is not in finding a job, but finding one to match Bill's previous six-figure salary.

R. RANIERI: They laugh if you walk in for a $30,000 a year job. They're -- looking at six-figure incomes, they're harder to find, those jobs.

MATTINGLY: So in the meantime, they will try to make the most of the perks that come from living in the Sunshine State.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: Once again that report from David Mattingly.

For more perspective on Florida, the impact of hurricanes Charley and Frances and the state's role in the election, I am joined in Miami by Tom Fiedler, the executive editor of the "Miami Herald."

Welcome, Tom. Good to see you.

TOM FIEDLER, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "MIAMI HERALD": Thank you, Paula. Good to be here.

ZAHN: Where does the election lie tonight in the state of Florida in the wake of these two hurricanes in less than a month period of time?

FIEDLER: It probably lies fairly dormant here, at least for now. I think that the polling going into the Republican convention and maybe more appropriately here, into Hurricane Charley, showed that it was too close to call. That's where it had been, really since last spring.

I would expect that -- that the president may have closed the gap a little bit, but I think what's, perhaps, interesting here in Florida is that when Hurricane Frances began to appear on the horizon, the -- most of the local media here, both newspapers and the broadcast media, focused so much on Hurricane Frances and its potential for destruction that it just drowned out, in many ways it knocked off the air completely what was going on in the political campaign, including President Bush's acceptance speech on Thursday night.

ZAHN: And Senator Kerry is in a bit of a box, is he not, in your state? It's not like he can go down and do a photo op right now. He's not able to hand out $2 billion in supplemental federal aid, and he's up against two Bushes, isn't he?

FIEDLER: Yes. Precisely. I think he would run the risk of appearing to try to exploit the situation by coming to Florida. He's got to be very careful in how he handles this.

At some point, it may be OK for him to come down and just say that, "If I am president, it's good for me to have an appreciation of what's happened here." But in the short-term, I think he's got to stay away.

President Bush, on the other hand, is -- it's not only appropriate; I think it's almost a requisite that he come down and -- and be seen as empathetic, be seen as the leader of the recovery effort. And it certainly doesn't hurt to come down with $2 billion in your pocket, as he did today.

ZAHN: Your state has a lot of military personnel. How is the issue of Iraq playing in Florida?

FIEDLER: For the first time, I think we began to see, particularly in the early summer, some doubts by military people and military retirees about the course of the policy.

In fact, those doubts reached such a level that President Bush felt it necessary to come and campaign in the Panhandle, which you would think would be just out of the question, he would have it nailed down.

But you know, again, right now people are concerned mostly about rebuilding their lives, and the rest of the campaign issues seem very distant.

ZAHN: That may be true, Tom. But finally tonight, all of America is focused on this number of more than 1,000 men and women in the armed forces having been killed. Just a quick thought on that?

FIEDLER: When you get over a milestone like that, it does, I think, give people pause. But I think this is one of those times when you stop and reflect.

And so to the extent that we might see people attempting to think about and measure the impact of the loss of 1,000 lives over the next few days, that's -- that's going to be a part of it. Whether people in Florida are going to link that, again, with President Bush and are apt to be moved by it, hard to say. I don't think right now.

ZAHN: Tom Fiedler, thank you for your perspective tonight. Appreciate it.

FIEDLER: I appreciate the invitation.

ZAHN: Good luck. We are keeping our fingers crossed that Ivan doesn't hit your state.

FIEDLER: From your lips to God's ears. I hope so.

ZAHN: All right. Take care.

Winning a big state like Florida might put you in the White House, but you've got to have a willing Congress to get what you want. The battle for control of Congress this election, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) ZAHN: The race most Americans will watch this fall is obviously the battle for the Oval Office, but it is hardly the only contest. Every seat in the House of Representatives and one third of the seats in the Senate are on the ballot in November.

Right now, Republicans control both Houses of Congress. Is that grip secure?

Here's CNN congressional correspondent Joe Johns.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Not too long ago, Democrats were almost exuberant over their chances to take control of either the House or Senate or both. Now, those prospects are dimming.

Veteran congressional race watcher Stuart Rothenberg says his latest analysis says winning the House appears to be out of reach for the Democrats and even recapturing the Senate is a stretch.

STUART ROTHENBERG, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: The Senate is still in play, although it's harder now for the Democrats to make that argument. And I think you have to say the Republicans have a clear advantage in the fight for the Senate and might even be able to increase their margin by a seat or two.

JOHNS: Right now, Republicans control 51 seats in the Senate. Democrats have 48. There's one independent who votes Democratic.

To gain outright control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up two seats. Their best hope is Illinois, where Barak Obama has a commanding lead for a Republican open seat.

Democrats also have high hopes for Alaska, where former Democratic governor Tony Knowles is looked in a tight race with freshman U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski.

Republicans can all but count on winning a Democratic open seat in Georgia, and they've mounted a serious challenge against the most powerful Democrat in the Congress, Tom Daschle, in his home state of South Dakota.

Daschle says he's confident.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D), SOUTH DAKOTA: I've never felt better about our circumstances and my optimism and confidence about our ability to win.

JOHNS: But the state voted overwhelmingly for George Bush four years ago. Daschle knows this and has made his ability to work with Bush a feature of his campaign.

ROTHENBERG: I think he's in real trouble. I mean, I think he's probably ahead by a point or two right now, but this race is a toss- up. John Thune, the Republican, entered the race relatively late. He's catching up; he's closing. It's all about, again, late deciding Republican voters who are going to vote for George W. Bush. How many of them are going to switch over and vote for Tom Daschle?

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Do I forget the lessons of September 11 and take the word of a mad man?

JOHNS: After President Bush's convention, Democrats running in red states, states where the president won in 2000, face the possibility of an energized Republican electorate.

Across the country, there are 34 Senate races. Of those, only eight are considered competitive. Six of those eight states voted strongly for George W. Bush in 2000.

Both sides have recruited some top-notch candidates: Democrat Ken Salazar to run against Republican beer magnate Pete Coors in Colorado; and Democratic Congressman Brad Carson to run against former GOP congressman and family physician, Tom Coburn in Oklahoma.

But the Democratic candidates were banking on a Kerry wave, and that wave has yet to materialize.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: That was CNN congressional correspondent Joe Johns.

We're going to get more analysis on the congressional races. Joining us again, CNN contributor and "TIME" columnist, Joe Klein. And in Washington, Susan Page, "USA Today" Washington bureau chief.

Welcome back.

SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "USA TODAY": Hi.

ZAHN: Susan, is there any shot Republicans lose control of the House?

PAGE: No, I think there's no possibility. It's just hard to even envision any scenario where they lose control of the House. I think control of the Senate, though, is still very much in play.

ZAHN: Do you agree with that, Joe?

JOE KLEIN, COLUMNIST, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Yes, but first a disclaimer. Whenever you folks see some national guy like me telling you that Tom Daschle is either going to win or lose, don't believe us, because these are very, very complicated races, the statewide Senate races. And only...

ZAHN: You're too smart to ever make those kind of predictions, Joe. You haven't made one here on the air lately.

KLEIN: I make predictions, but the fact is that you have to be watching these races on a day-to-day-to-day basis. You can -- you can spout general rules, like, you know, South Dakotans won't want to give up the power that they have by having, you know, Tom Daschle as the Senate minority leader.

But those are general rules, and each individual race is different.

ZAHN: What does it tell us, though? You see Bill Frist out there, actively campaigning against Tom Daschle.

KLEIN: Well, it tells us that Bill Frist is running for president. It's, you know, a long-standing tradition that the majority leader doesn't campaign against the minority leader.

But there's a new tradition in the Republican Party, which is that the toughest candidate wins. And so Bill Frist is trying to prove that he's as tough as he can be.

ZAHN: There is one candidate in particular that is getting a lot of attention, Barak Obama of Illinois. Do you think that's a pretty good shot he'll win, Susan?

PAGE: Yes, I think he's -- I think, actually, Paula, there's a greater chance that you will be elected senator from Illinois than Alan Keyes. There's a...

ZAHN: Well, you know, I actually did grow up in Illinois, Susan. You don't know that. Naperville, Illinois. I could legitimately run there.

PAGE: And Alan Keyes...

KLEIN: What's your position on the Ag Bill?

PAGE: And Alan Keyes did not grow up in Illinois, we should remember. We know Barak Obama almost will certainly be just the third African-American to be elected to the Senate since Reconstruction.

He's already causing an incredible buzz. I was in the convention hall when he gave the keynote speech in Boston at the Democratic convention. It was one of the best political speeches I've ever heard.

And there's a -- there's a big audience waiting for him here of eager Democrats for his election. And to see if he can deliver as a senator and office holder the way he delivered as a speaker at that convention.

ZAHN: Are there any other races that you find equally captivating in the Senate?

KLEIN: Well, you know, the Barak Obama race is a key one. But the Senate race in North Carolina, where Erskine Bowles, who lost to Elizabeth Dole, is leading right now against a very popular Republican congressman, Burr, is an interesting one.

And this race down in Oklahoma is an interesting one, as well.

ZAHN: Final question about Bush coattails. Will they be very long at all?

PAGE: Well, I think that the Bush -- I think we've seen presidential coattails tend not to be very long at all. I mean, Bush had certainly no coattails at all in 2000 in that very narrow race.

But in some of these races if they turn out to be very close, some of these southern races, five important races for the Senate in the South, I think if Bush -- if Bush really carried the states in a big way, the advantage of a point or two that it might give to a Senate candidate could prove to be important.

KLEIN: Could I add -- could I add one more race?

ZAHN: You can.

KLEIN: And that is Mel Martinez, who -- who was the housing secretary in the -- in the Bush administration and won the Republican nomination down in Florida. A lot of people think that he's a real coming star, as well.

ZAHN: We'll keep our eye on both of those guys. Joe Klein, Susan page, thanks for your time.

Another campaign and a hard turn towards the absurd. He wants to be the second singing governor of the Lone Star State. Kinky Friedman's race when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: We have covered a wide range of politics so far tonight. So this might be a good time to look at a very unusual candidate.

Kinky Friedman guaranteed himself a place in music history as the singing Jewish cowboy. Well, he then moved on to writing mystery novels and hobnobbing with movie stars and presidents. Well, now he's trying out a new field, one that suits his Texas-sized taste for the absurd.

Our Bruce Burkhardt reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRUCE BURKHARDT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Is it possible, is it just possible that we may be looking at the next governor of the great state of Texas?

ARNOLD GARCIA, "AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN": Well, you know, Texas elected a country singer to the governorship in the 1940s. It's not -- it's not unprecedented that -- that this could happen.

(MUSIC)

BURKHARDT: You can't get much more politically incorrect than Kinky Friedman. He's been that way ever since he pioneered the Jewish country music genre with his band Kinky Friedman and the Texas Jew Boys. KINKY FRIEDMAN (I), TEXAS GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm a bastard child of twin cultures, Texas and Jewish. And the only thing that we have in common is we both like to wear our hats indoors.

(MUSIC)

BURKHARDT: The blend of Kinky's gift of satire with a genuine love of country music with songs like "Ain't Making Jews like Jesus Anymore" and "Ride 'em Jew Boy," Kinky had a cult following that never really hit it big.

So in the mid-80s, he turned to something else, writing mystery novels with himself, the Kinkster, as a private eye.

FRIEDMAN: I think there's 18 novels that I've churned out. I mean carefully crafted.

BURKHARDT: A talented writer, he counts both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush among his fans. Both have had him as a guest at the White House. Maybe that's what gave him a taste for politics.

FRIEDMAN: People are so fed up with career politicians lying to them and also, if Willie and Lance Armstrong stay out of the race, I think you're talking to the next governor of Texas.

BURKHARDT: The election is not until 2006, but running as an independent, Kinky is wasting no time.

FRIEDMAN: Here's some campaign posters. How hard could it be? My friend, Bobby, big ole guy, he came over and said, "Kinky, these ones with the little Jew star are real popular."

BURKHARDT: But what started as kind of a joke has turned into something a bit more serious. Think California.

(on camera) You do think you have a shot?

FRIEDMAN: I'm not running to lose. I think Arnold has opened the door to a lot of things here in Texas.

Now we're going to the rescue ranch. One of my favorite places.

BURKHARDT (voice-over): One thing Kinky doesn't joke about is animals. He loves his animals.

FRIEDMAN: There's Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. Right?

BURKHARDT: Adjacent to Kinky's ranch here in the Texas hill country is his Utopia Rescue Ranch for stray dogs. If he were governor, he'd make Texas a no-kill state, no euthanizing unwanted dogs. And under a Friedman administration, declawing cats would be illegal.

FRIEDMAN: Special place in hell for anybody who declaws a cat.

BURKHARDT: As for other issues his positions are a little hazier. Take abortion.

FRIEDMAN: I'm not pro-life and I'm not pro-choice. I'm pro football.

BURKHARDT (on camera): That's evasive, man. That's evasive.

FRIEDMAN: I'll tell you what; let's write that chapter of Texas history together.

BURKHARDT: Oh, good. That's good.

(voice-over) Kinky is counting on the support of friends like legendary country songwriter Billy Joe Shaver, whose birthday party in Austin was a rare occasion for Kinky to perform.

BILLY JOE SHAVER, SINGER: I don't think there's any experience problem, because Kinky's been a politician all his life.

BURKHARDT: Also on hand, another potential supporter, Robert Duvall.

ROBERT DUVALL, ACTOR: Don't turn your back on him -- don't turn your back on him when you've got your woman around.

BURKHARDT: OK, so some of his support is lukewarm.

Still, Kinky believes it's a job he can get, and it's a job he can do.

FRIEDMAN: First of all, this job is a notoriously easy gig. The governor of Texas requires no heavy lifting. The lieutenant governor does all the heavy lifting. But the governor should do some spiritual lifting. That's where I come in.

BURKHARDT (on camera): How long is the term, four years?

(voice-over) It's a long way off, 2006. In the meantime, Kinky has picked up a couple of tips from Teresa Heinz Kerry about dealing with the media.

FRIEDMAN: You know what I have to say to that? Shove it!

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZAHN: We've heard that before. That was Bruce Burkhardt reporting.

We want to add that Kinky Friedman has said had if he wins this election, his first act will be to demand a recount. Be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAHN: Tomorrow, was it just Abu Ghraib or was the torture and abuse of prisoners in Iraq much more widespread? We'll look into that.

"LARRY KING LIVE" is next. Thanks for joining us tonight. Good night.

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