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American Morning

Tracking Hurricane Ivan; U.S. Warplanes Blast Insurgent Stronghold in Fallujah.

Aired September 13, 2004 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: At least 42 people killed already. Now the category-five Hurricane Ivan is coming to Cuba. And after that, the U.S.
Has John Kerry started closing the gap with the president? Or is the gap getting wider? We'll break down some conflicting numbers.

A barrage of missiles in the Iraqi city of Fallujah as the U.S. military tries to smash a terrorist network.

And the secretive government of North Korea offers its explanation for a strange cloud that is triggering nuclear fears, ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

COLLINS: Good morning, everybody.

Bill and Soledad are off today. I'm Heidi Collins.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

Good morning to you. Some stories we're following this morning, it is now looking like the Florida Panhandle may have drawn the short straw when it comes to Hurricane Ivan. The hurricane is changing direction and continues to do so, did it over the weekend. We are looking at where it's going now, and what people are doing to get ready for it.

COLLINS: Also Andy Serwer has a series he's working on all work looking at technology we've heard about for years, and it's here now. So today, Andy is going to tell us about making telephone calls anywhere over the Internet for a fraction of what you pay the phone company. Very interesting.

Also interesting is Jack Cafferty, back from vaca.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Yes, nice to see you.

North Korea, they may be getting ready to conduct a nuclear weapons test, and there is some mystery apparently surrounding an explosion that happened near the North Korean-Chinese border last week. Was that some sort of nuclear weapons test? Well, nobody seems to know. And yet back before the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was put into place, we could tell every time the Russians lit a firecracker, but we don't know what this was in North Korea. It's a little strange. We'll take a look at it.

O'BRIEN: It's a big firecracker, sure, regardless.

All right, Jack Cafferty, we'll check in with you a little bit later.

Let's check on the stories now in the news with Daryn Kagan at the CNN Center.

Good morning, Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Miles, good morning to you.

Let's begin with U.S. fighter jets that are crushing a suspected insurgent site in Fallujah right now. Iraqi sources report at least 16 people were killed in the overnight strike. It comes amid reports of heavy fighting between insurgents and American forces. The ministry of health says that more than 75 people were killed yesterday throughout Iraq and some 200 others were wounded.

New details about that mysterious explosion in North Korea. A large mushroom cloud was seen in satellite images last week, leading to speculation that it could be connected to nuclear experimentation, but North Korea's foreign minister now says Thursday's blast was part of a planned demolition project for a power plant.

In the next half hour, more on the global reaction to the explosion with national security affairs expert Peter Brookes.

The clock is running out for the federal assault weapons ban. Congress has until midnight tonight to pass an extension. If not, some 19 types of semiautomatic weapons will legally be back on the market.

From the world of sports, Roger Federer is the king of men's tennis, after winning his third Grand Slam title of the year. He beat Lleyton Hewitt six-love, 7-6, six-love to win the U.S. Open. He, by the way, is the first player in 16 years to win three Grand Slam men's titles in one season.

The women's title went to a 19-year-old Russian Svetlanta Kuznetsova. She defeated sixth seed Elena Dementieva on Saturday.

A quiz on pronouncing Russian names, straight ahead here on AMERICAN MORNING. For now, though, Heidi, back to you.

COLLINS: Yes, all-Russian final, and you got to pronounce her.

All right, Daryn, thanks so much for that.

The deadly Hurricane Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today. This was the scene this weekend in Jamaica. Unbelievable. At least 17 people were killed. Heavy winds and rain caused major damage to homes.

Here's a look at Ivan now. The huge hurricane sneaking between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan remains a category-five hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour. Gusts are even stronger than that. At least 42 people throughout the Caribbean and Venezuela have been killed.

Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today before turning north to the United States. The latest tracking map shows Ivan hitting the Florida Panhandle later this week.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COLLINS: We want to go back now to forecaster Rick Nabb who is tracking Ivan, once again at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Rick, we've been hearing, this is still a category five, but it's possible, is it not, that it could decrease in its intensity as it carries on, is that right?

RICK NABB, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Yes, that is possible. Right now, it's over very warm water, and the vertical sheer in the atmosphere is rather weak. But we do expect as the hurricane moves to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico that sheer could increase, so we do see the possibility of some gradual weakening, but starting off from a category five, we're only expecting to go down maybe to a category three before potential landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

COLLINS: What is it about this hurricane, Rick, that is so difficult? I mean, is it unusually hard to predict?

NABB: It has been moving rather slowly. And the slower that a hurricane moves and the weaker that the steering currents are, the harder it is to get a real good idea of the direction. But still, we have a good enough handle on it that we have a general idea that in about three days, we could have a major hurricane somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

COLLINS: Right, and actually, we eggs expected it to hit the Florida Keys, and now we're hearing more about the Panhandle. Obviously, this whole direction could change again.

NABB: It could, again, with a weak steering current environment, only going until 9 or 10 miles an hour up until now -- from now until the time it makes landfall, in about three days. It has plenty of time to change direction, and it could go as far west as Louisiana, and it could even go as far east as the Florida Panhandle. So everyone in the Gulf Coast of Florida all the way over to Louisiana should be watching this very closely.

COLLINS: Obviously flooding is always an issue when you are talking about a hurricane. I know past hurricanes Charley and Frances it was a concern. How much water are we talking about here? And how much should people be concerned?

NABB: Well, when a hurricane is not moving very quickly, it certainly can certainly dump a lot of rainfall. Right now, our estimates over western Cuba and northeastern Mexico could be in the six to eight or maybe 10-inch range. Since we don't expect much change in the forward speed between now and the time of potential landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, somewhere in the eight to 10 inches range is possible, even inland from where the hurricane makes landfall.

COLLINS: Once again, flooding will be a major concern, I imagine.

Rick Nabb at the National Hurricane Center, we appreciate your time this morning. Thanks so much -- Miles.

NABB: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: Overseas this morning, U.S. warplanes have blasted an insurgent stronghold in Fallujah. The military says a precision strike targeted a terrorist leading site. Hospital officials say at least 10 we're killed. The latest strike comes after a day of heavy fighting that left dozens dead, hundreds wounded in Iraq.

Here's Diana Muriel in Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): As dawn broke over Baghdad on Sunday. Parts of the city were burning. Mortars raining down on the enclave west of the River Tigress where the Iraqi interim government is based. No casualties reported, but later, a suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a checkpoint, killing only himself. The most intense fighting took place on nearby Haifa Street, nicknamed little Fallujah by its inhabitants.

U.S. forces crashed with insurgents and blew up a Bradley armored personnel carrier with a home made car bomb. The U.S. military says soldiers came under fire with grenades of molotov cocktails as they were being evacuated. Four soldiers were injured. A military spokesman says a helicopter gunship later fired on the Bradley to prevent looters from stripping it of ammunition, but eyewitnesses say a large crowd of civilians had gathered around the vehicle by that time, and the strike was responsible for most of the casualties, 13 dead, 55 wounded.

According to Iraq's ministry of health. Many of the victims brought here to this center Baghdad hospital. Elsewhere, more killings, a senior police officer and a colleague died in a car bomb attack to the west of the city. Four others injured in the blast.

At Abu Ghraib Prison, coalition forces destroyed a car whose driver tried to ram the gates. They say the car was carrying explosives.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MURIEL: With 25 and 108 wounded in Sunday's attacks, the struggle between insurgents and the coalition-backed Iraqi national forces seems to be intensifying here in the capital. Firefights have become a daily occurrence in some parts of the city, and insurgent mortar attacks remain a constant threat -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Diana, they all happen in such rapid succession. Is there a sense that these attacks were coordinated in any way?

MURIEL: There's no sense that they are organized by some all- seeing body. But what seems to be happening, at least in the last week or so, Miles, is that we've seen an increase in the pressure. Now, this ebbs and flows from time to time here in Iraq, but certainly we've seen a step up in the violence, ever since the crisis in Najaf ended two weeks ago. The Mehdi militia appears to have come back regrouped and rested, and now seems to be conducting more and more of these attacks here in Baghdad, and indeed in other parts of Iraq -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Diana Muriel in Baghdad, thank you very much.

COLLINS: Still to come this morning, how would you like to cut your phone bill in half, and maybe even get better service? Well, we're going to tell you about a new technology that could make all of that possible.

O'BRIEN: Sounding like an infomercial -- but, wait, there's more.

Also ahead, is Colin Powell contradicting the White House? John Kerry pounces on an apparent opportunity.

COLLINS: Plus, President Bush may be losing some of the luster from his post-convention glow. Bill Schneider's going to talk about that, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Two new polls, two different views on the state of the presidential race, or so we think. "Time" magazine has President Bush leading senator John Kerry 52 to 41 among likely voters, but "Newsweek" has Kerry closing the gap to six points in a survey of registered voters.

Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is in Washington to break it all down for us.

Bill, good to see you this morning, bright and early.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POL. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, well, first of all, the Kerry bounce was -- well, there was no bounce after his convention. The Bush bounce wasn't that much, but there was a bounce there. Is the bounce fading?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, well, one poll we just saw shows that it's fading, and that is the poll that "Newsweek" did among registered voters. That's 100 percent of the people who say they're registered to vote. There it may be fading, but a lot of those people may not show up at the polls.

The "Time" poll was of likely voters. Those are people that the pollsters at "Time" magazine believe are committed to voting. So the answer is in the larger electorate, the bounce may be fading because those people don't pay a lot of attention to politics, but among those who are really committed to voting, Bush is staying very strong.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about a couple of specific issues here. When it comes to Iraq, people favor the president and now it appears he is emerging as the favorite when the subject comes to the economy as well.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, that's very interesting, because these are two issues that Kerry should be doing well on, but he does not own these issues. What's really shifted, you can see here on Iraq, it was a tie who would do better in Iraq in early August. Now a month later, Bush clearly is ahead on that issue.

The same thing interestingly is true on the economy, which is an issue that ought to be John Kerry's. As you see, it was in early august. Now Bush is slightly ahead, 50-44, as the candidate who'd do better on the economy.

What that says is voters don't naturally see Kerry as better on either the economy or Iraq. He doesn't own them the way Bush owns the terrorism issue, the way Bill Clinton owned the economy issue in 1992.

What we're finding is that among the smaller number of voters who say they're upset or concerned about the Iraq war or the economy, yes, they'd vote for Kerry, but they have to be upset or concerned to do that.

O'BRIEN: There's a lot of polling numbers that suggest Americans want change. So maybe it's not a coincidence the president is talking about change himself, the incumbent talking about change.

SCHNEIDER:: Yes, this makes no sense. I mean, if you want change you're supposed to vote for John Kerry. How can bush make a case for change? Well, here's how. Bush has the image, the reputation of a risk taker, someone who's bold, who will strike out and do unusual things -- his tax cuts, his Iraq policy. And now he's talking about a change in Social Security, tort reform, in workers training programs. He's bringing troops home from overseas for the first time since the Cold War ended. He's willing to do things differently, and he's portraying Democrats as same old, same old. The candidate -- Kerry would be the candidate of the safety net, "the great society," he calls it, the pre-9/11 mindset, the Cold War. So Bush is able to make a case here that he's willing to do things differently.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the gender gap for just a moment. The numbers suggest that among women, it's a pretty even division there. Used to be John Kerry led in that area. What's going on?

SCHNEIDER:: Yes, well, women are more risk adverse than men, so they tend to vote more Democratic, because the Democrats are the party, the safety net. So why is push picking up support among women? Security. Remember the soccer moms people talked about for the last 10 years? Well, they may be becoming security moms, and Bush looks like a president who will protect them, their family, their kids. O'BRIEN: And just a final thought here, are they popping champagne corks at the Bush camp? And how concerned should the Kerry camp be?

SCHNEIDER:: The Kerry camp should be concerned. The Bush camp, I think, has to wait until after -- at least after the debates and see what happens, because that's where a lot of people say, to be fair, I'm not going to make up my mind until I see the two candidates debate. That's the climax of this campaign, the only time when voters will see the two candidates side by side in an unscripted setting, so the sensible to do is say, look, I'm going to watch them debate, and then I will make up my mind. So It's too early to pop champagne corks.

O'BRIEN: All right, no debate about that.

Bill Schneider, thank very much -- Heidi.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

COLLINS: Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry yesterday accused the Bush administration of falsely making a link between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks. Last week Vice President Dick Cheney suggested there was such a link, but yesterday Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was no direct connection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECY. OF STATE: We know that there had been connections and there had been exchanges between Al Qaeda and the Saddam Hussein regime, and those have been pursued and looked at, but I have seen nothing that make as direct connection between Saddam Hussein and that awful regime and what happened on 9/11.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: Senator Kerry picking up on the contradiction between Powell and Cheney issued a written statement. In it, Kerry praised Powell, and said, quote, "The president needs to answer the question, who do you think is right? Vice President Cheney or Secretary Powell? Unfortunately in his desperate attempts to reinvent a rationale for the Iraq War, this White House has repeatedly chosen to mislead the American people," unquote.

O'BRIEN: Still to come, one major airline going back to bankruptcy court, and it may not survive intact.

Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" for you. Stay with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: It's dark and gloomy night for some of the airlines. This time U.S. Airways has some bad news. I'm not laughing at their bad news. We are just kind of making fun of the dark day thing.

But Andy Serwer, how many times can you go to bankruptcy court? Is there a limit?

(CROSSTALK)

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: You can keep going. You can keep filing.

First of all, the headline here, Miles, of course, is that U.S. Air, the nation's seventh largest carrier, has filed for bankruptcy as of Sunday, the second time in 25 months this company's filed for bankruptcy, there you go.

Now to answer your question, Miles, a company can keep filing for bankruptcy as many times as, say, wall street allows it to, and as long as Wall Street sees fit to keep lending a company money, you can keep going into bankruptcy.

Let's remember, bankruptcy is a situation where you don't pay your creditors any money while you reorganize. And -- but in this case, you know, as you start to go into bankruptcy a second time, there are real questions as to the long-term viability of this company. It may face liquidation.

What does this mean for U.S. Air? Travelers, well, it's going to keep flying, at least over the short terms. Frequent flyers, yes, you still have your miles. I would maybe go ahead and start using those. The stock is, obviously way, way, way down. And real questions. The company's in Arlington, Virginia. There was some question about that last week on this program, where they were based.

O'BRIEN: Is there a fundamental issue of overcapacity in the airline industry, though, I mean, major carriers? Isn't that too much?

SERWER: Right, and actually, well, there are seven, including Southwest, and two of them are in bankruptcy. You've got United in bankruptcy as well, Delta on the brink. So I think is real question as to whether they're going to have that many of them going forward in the long run.

O'BRIEN: All right, market preview for us.

SERWER: Just very quickly, markets are looking good. The futures are up. Markets up all around the globe this morning. We'll check back. All around the globe.

O'BRIEN: All right, thank you very much Andy Serwer.

COLLINS: I thought we were going to talk for a minute about that guy's landing.

O'BRIEN: Well, we showed that. Can we replay the U.S. Airway's landing?

COLLINS: The poor guy -- it's not a very good landing.

O'BRIEN: I mean, that poor guy, is probably about 10 years ago he did that landing, and he's regretted it ever since. And I think that's the 700th time I've seen it. I've seen it...

SERWER: Dark days.

O'BRIEN: I've seen that poor guy.

CAFFERTY: That may have been President Bush when he was flying for the Air National Guard.

John Kerry had nothing scheduled yesterday, except at some point during the day he picked up the phone and called "The New York Times." And he complained about the Bush administration's handling of what Kerry calls a "nuclear nightmare" in North Korea. He says the nuclear crisis there has escalated to the point that the country may be ready now to test a plutonium bomb. Kerry says the president should have directly negotiated with the North Koreans, instead of focusing on Iraq. That would be like unilateral negotiations, which Kerry has criticized Bush for doing in Iraq, but thinks he should have done in North Korea.

The president has refused direct talks, in favor of six-nation talks, citing a notion that North Korean's neighbors have the most to lose from its nuclear ambitions.

Meantime, some intelligence officials say that a large explosion seen near the northern border with China was not a nuclear bomb, but a demolition site. Nevertheless, this thing had a mushroom shaped cloud that measured two miles across, and that has raised some concerns. But they say it's not a nuclear bomb.

And here's the question, how should the U.S. deal with a potential nuclear threat from North Korea? E-mail us at am@cnn.com.

COLLINS: Apparently now the British foreign minister has asked that international diplomats actually go in and inspect this site.

SERWER: They are not going to let them in.

But it was a garbage dump, you know. They said it was just exploding up a big dump, right.

(CROSSTALK)

COLLINS: They say they're considering it.

CAFFERTY: Yes, right.

I bet you lunch that it doesn't happen in our lifetime.

COLLINS: I'm not saying it'll happen.

O'BRIEN: What about underground testing? I guess they haven't figured that out yet.

CAFFERTY: Well, we knew when the Russians did it, remember?

O'BRIEN: That's right. CAFFERTY: I mean, any time the Russians tested anything, it was in the newspapers before the smoke got out of the ground, and now we don't know what going on in -- I don't believe this. Something is amiss here.

COLLINS: All right, Jack, we'll wait to see what people have to say about that one this morning. Thanks so much.

CAFFERTY: And still to come, let's get your week started now with some "90-Second Pop." CBS says thanks, but no thanks to the Material Girl: why you won't see Madonna on free TV anytime soon. Plus, Gwyneth Paltrow says goodbye to movies? "90-Second Pop," ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired September 13, 2004 - 07:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: At least 42 people killed already. Now the category-five Hurricane Ivan is coming to Cuba. And after that, the U.S.
Has John Kerry started closing the gap with the president? Or is the gap getting wider? We'll break down some conflicting numbers.

A barrage of missiles in the Iraqi city of Fallujah as the U.S. military tries to smash a terrorist network.

And the secretive government of North Korea offers its explanation for a strange cloud that is triggering nuclear fears, ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

COLLINS: Good morning, everybody.

Bill and Soledad are off today. I'm Heidi Collins.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

Good morning to you. Some stories we're following this morning, it is now looking like the Florida Panhandle may have drawn the short straw when it comes to Hurricane Ivan. The hurricane is changing direction and continues to do so, did it over the weekend. We are looking at where it's going now, and what people are doing to get ready for it.

COLLINS: Also Andy Serwer has a series he's working on all work looking at technology we've heard about for years, and it's here now. So today, Andy is going to tell us about making telephone calls anywhere over the Internet for a fraction of what you pay the phone company. Very interesting.

Also interesting is Jack Cafferty, back from vaca.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Yes, nice to see you.

North Korea, they may be getting ready to conduct a nuclear weapons test, and there is some mystery apparently surrounding an explosion that happened near the North Korean-Chinese border last week. Was that some sort of nuclear weapons test? Well, nobody seems to know. And yet back before the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was put into place, we could tell every time the Russians lit a firecracker, but we don't know what this was in North Korea. It's a little strange. We'll take a look at it.

O'BRIEN: It's a big firecracker, sure, regardless.

All right, Jack Cafferty, we'll check in with you a little bit later.

Let's check on the stories now in the news with Daryn Kagan at the CNN Center.

Good morning, Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Miles, good morning to you.

Let's begin with U.S. fighter jets that are crushing a suspected insurgent site in Fallujah right now. Iraqi sources report at least 16 people were killed in the overnight strike. It comes amid reports of heavy fighting between insurgents and American forces. The ministry of health says that more than 75 people were killed yesterday throughout Iraq and some 200 others were wounded.

New details about that mysterious explosion in North Korea. A large mushroom cloud was seen in satellite images last week, leading to speculation that it could be connected to nuclear experimentation, but North Korea's foreign minister now says Thursday's blast was part of a planned demolition project for a power plant.

In the next half hour, more on the global reaction to the explosion with national security affairs expert Peter Brookes.

The clock is running out for the federal assault weapons ban. Congress has until midnight tonight to pass an extension. If not, some 19 types of semiautomatic weapons will legally be back on the market.

From the world of sports, Roger Federer is the king of men's tennis, after winning his third Grand Slam title of the year. He beat Lleyton Hewitt six-love, 7-6, six-love to win the U.S. Open. He, by the way, is the first player in 16 years to win three Grand Slam men's titles in one season.

The women's title went to a 19-year-old Russian Svetlanta Kuznetsova. She defeated sixth seed Elena Dementieva on Saturday.

A quiz on pronouncing Russian names, straight ahead here on AMERICAN MORNING. For now, though, Heidi, back to you.

COLLINS: Yes, all-Russian final, and you got to pronounce her.

All right, Daryn, thanks so much for that.

The deadly Hurricane Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today. This was the scene this weekend in Jamaica. Unbelievable. At least 17 people were killed. Heavy winds and rain caused major damage to homes.

Here's a look at Ivan now. The huge hurricane sneaking between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan remains a category-five hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour. Gusts are even stronger than that. At least 42 people throughout the Caribbean and Venezuela have been killed.

Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today before turning north to the United States. The latest tracking map shows Ivan hitting the Florida Panhandle later this week.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COLLINS: We want to go back now to forecaster Rick Nabb who is tracking Ivan, once again at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Rick, we've been hearing, this is still a category five, but it's possible, is it not, that it could decrease in its intensity as it carries on, is that right?

RICK NABB, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Yes, that is possible. Right now, it's over very warm water, and the vertical sheer in the atmosphere is rather weak. But we do expect as the hurricane moves to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico that sheer could increase, so we do see the possibility of some gradual weakening, but starting off from a category five, we're only expecting to go down maybe to a category three before potential landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

COLLINS: What is it about this hurricane, Rick, that is so difficult? I mean, is it unusually hard to predict?

NABB: It has been moving rather slowly. And the slower that a hurricane moves and the weaker that the steering currents are, the harder it is to get a real good idea of the direction. But still, we have a good enough handle on it that we have a general idea that in about three days, we could have a major hurricane somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

COLLINS: Right, and actually, we eggs expected it to hit the Florida Keys, and now we're hearing more about the Panhandle. Obviously, this whole direction could change again.

NABB: It could, again, with a weak steering current environment, only going until 9 or 10 miles an hour up until now -- from now until the time it makes landfall, in about three days. It has plenty of time to change direction, and it could go as far west as Louisiana, and it could even go as far east as the Florida Panhandle. So everyone in the Gulf Coast of Florida all the way over to Louisiana should be watching this very closely.

COLLINS: Obviously flooding is always an issue when you are talking about a hurricane. I know past hurricanes Charley and Frances it was a concern. How much water are we talking about here? And how much should people be concerned?

NABB: Well, when a hurricane is not moving very quickly, it certainly can certainly dump a lot of rainfall. Right now, our estimates over western Cuba and northeastern Mexico could be in the six to eight or maybe 10-inch range. Since we don't expect much change in the forward speed between now and the time of potential landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, somewhere in the eight to 10 inches range is possible, even inland from where the hurricane makes landfall.

COLLINS: Once again, flooding will be a major concern, I imagine.

Rick Nabb at the National Hurricane Center, we appreciate your time this morning. Thanks so much -- Miles.

NABB: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: Overseas this morning, U.S. warplanes have blasted an insurgent stronghold in Fallujah. The military says a precision strike targeted a terrorist leading site. Hospital officials say at least 10 we're killed. The latest strike comes after a day of heavy fighting that left dozens dead, hundreds wounded in Iraq.

Here's Diana Muriel in Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): As dawn broke over Baghdad on Sunday. Parts of the city were burning. Mortars raining down on the enclave west of the River Tigress where the Iraqi interim government is based. No casualties reported, but later, a suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a checkpoint, killing only himself. The most intense fighting took place on nearby Haifa Street, nicknamed little Fallujah by its inhabitants.

U.S. forces crashed with insurgents and blew up a Bradley armored personnel carrier with a home made car bomb. The U.S. military says soldiers came under fire with grenades of molotov cocktails as they were being evacuated. Four soldiers were injured. A military spokesman says a helicopter gunship later fired on the Bradley to prevent looters from stripping it of ammunition, but eyewitnesses say a large crowd of civilians had gathered around the vehicle by that time, and the strike was responsible for most of the casualties, 13 dead, 55 wounded.

According to Iraq's ministry of health. Many of the victims brought here to this center Baghdad hospital. Elsewhere, more killings, a senior police officer and a colleague died in a car bomb attack to the west of the city. Four others injured in the blast.

At Abu Ghraib Prison, coalition forces destroyed a car whose driver tried to ram the gates. They say the car was carrying explosives.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MURIEL: With 25 and 108 wounded in Sunday's attacks, the struggle between insurgents and the coalition-backed Iraqi national forces seems to be intensifying here in the capital. Firefights have become a daily occurrence in some parts of the city, and insurgent mortar attacks remain a constant threat -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Diana, they all happen in such rapid succession. Is there a sense that these attacks were coordinated in any way?

MURIEL: There's no sense that they are organized by some all- seeing body. But what seems to be happening, at least in the last week or so, Miles, is that we've seen an increase in the pressure. Now, this ebbs and flows from time to time here in Iraq, but certainly we've seen a step up in the violence, ever since the crisis in Najaf ended two weeks ago. The Mehdi militia appears to have come back regrouped and rested, and now seems to be conducting more and more of these attacks here in Baghdad, and indeed in other parts of Iraq -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Diana Muriel in Baghdad, thank you very much.

COLLINS: Still to come this morning, how would you like to cut your phone bill in half, and maybe even get better service? Well, we're going to tell you about a new technology that could make all of that possible.

O'BRIEN: Sounding like an infomercial -- but, wait, there's more.

Also ahead, is Colin Powell contradicting the White House? John Kerry pounces on an apparent opportunity.

COLLINS: Plus, President Bush may be losing some of the luster from his post-convention glow. Bill Schneider's going to talk about that, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Two new polls, two different views on the state of the presidential race, or so we think. "Time" magazine has President Bush leading senator John Kerry 52 to 41 among likely voters, but "Newsweek" has Kerry closing the gap to six points in a survey of registered voters.

Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is in Washington to break it all down for us.

Bill, good to see you this morning, bright and early.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POL. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, well, first of all, the Kerry bounce was -- well, there was no bounce after his convention. The Bush bounce wasn't that much, but there was a bounce there. Is the bounce fading?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, well, one poll we just saw shows that it's fading, and that is the poll that "Newsweek" did among registered voters. That's 100 percent of the people who say they're registered to vote. There it may be fading, but a lot of those people may not show up at the polls.

The "Time" poll was of likely voters. Those are people that the pollsters at "Time" magazine believe are committed to voting. So the answer is in the larger electorate, the bounce may be fading because those people don't pay a lot of attention to politics, but among those who are really committed to voting, Bush is staying very strong.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about a couple of specific issues here. When it comes to Iraq, people favor the president and now it appears he is emerging as the favorite when the subject comes to the economy as well.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, that's very interesting, because these are two issues that Kerry should be doing well on, but he does not own these issues. What's really shifted, you can see here on Iraq, it was a tie who would do better in Iraq in early August. Now a month later, Bush clearly is ahead on that issue.

The same thing interestingly is true on the economy, which is an issue that ought to be John Kerry's. As you see, it was in early august. Now Bush is slightly ahead, 50-44, as the candidate who'd do better on the economy.

What that says is voters don't naturally see Kerry as better on either the economy or Iraq. He doesn't own them the way Bush owns the terrorism issue, the way Bill Clinton owned the economy issue in 1992.

What we're finding is that among the smaller number of voters who say they're upset or concerned about the Iraq war or the economy, yes, they'd vote for Kerry, but they have to be upset or concerned to do that.

O'BRIEN: There's a lot of polling numbers that suggest Americans want change. So maybe it's not a coincidence the president is talking about change himself, the incumbent talking about change.

SCHNEIDER:: Yes, this makes no sense. I mean, if you want change you're supposed to vote for John Kerry. How can bush make a case for change? Well, here's how. Bush has the image, the reputation of a risk taker, someone who's bold, who will strike out and do unusual things -- his tax cuts, his Iraq policy. And now he's talking about a change in Social Security, tort reform, in workers training programs. He's bringing troops home from overseas for the first time since the Cold War ended. He's willing to do things differently, and he's portraying Democrats as same old, same old. The candidate -- Kerry would be the candidate of the safety net, "the great society," he calls it, the pre-9/11 mindset, the Cold War. So Bush is able to make a case here that he's willing to do things differently.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the gender gap for just a moment. The numbers suggest that among women, it's a pretty even division there. Used to be John Kerry led in that area. What's going on?

SCHNEIDER:: Yes, well, women are more risk adverse than men, so they tend to vote more Democratic, because the Democrats are the party, the safety net. So why is push picking up support among women? Security. Remember the soccer moms people talked about for the last 10 years? Well, they may be becoming security moms, and Bush looks like a president who will protect them, their family, their kids. O'BRIEN: And just a final thought here, are they popping champagne corks at the Bush camp? And how concerned should the Kerry camp be?

SCHNEIDER:: The Kerry camp should be concerned. The Bush camp, I think, has to wait until after -- at least after the debates and see what happens, because that's where a lot of people say, to be fair, I'm not going to make up my mind until I see the two candidates debate. That's the climax of this campaign, the only time when voters will see the two candidates side by side in an unscripted setting, so the sensible to do is say, look, I'm going to watch them debate, and then I will make up my mind. So It's too early to pop champagne corks.

O'BRIEN: All right, no debate about that.

Bill Schneider, thank very much -- Heidi.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

COLLINS: Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry yesterday accused the Bush administration of falsely making a link between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks. Last week Vice President Dick Cheney suggested there was such a link, but yesterday Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was no direct connection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECY. OF STATE: We know that there had been connections and there had been exchanges between Al Qaeda and the Saddam Hussein regime, and those have been pursued and looked at, but I have seen nothing that make as direct connection between Saddam Hussein and that awful regime and what happened on 9/11.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: Senator Kerry picking up on the contradiction between Powell and Cheney issued a written statement. In it, Kerry praised Powell, and said, quote, "The president needs to answer the question, who do you think is right? Vice President Cheney or Secretary Powell? Unfortunately in his desperate attempts to reinvent a rationale for the Iraq War, this White House has repeatedly chosen to mislead the American people," unquote.

O'BRIEN: Still to come, one major airline going back to bankruptcy court, and it may not survive intact.

Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" for you. Stay with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

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O'BRIEN: It's dark and gloomy night for some of the airlines. This time U.S. Airways has some bad news. I'm not laughing at their bad news. We are just kind of making fun of the dark day thing.

But Andy Serwer, how many times can you go to bankruptcy court? Is there a limit?

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ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: You can keep going. You can keep filing.

First of all, the headline here, Miles, of course, is that U.S. Air, the nation's seventh largest carrier, has filed for bankruptcy as of Sunday, the second time in 25 months this company's filed for bankruptcy, there you go.

Now to answer your question, Miles, a company can keep filing for bankruptcy as many times as, say, wall street allows it to, and as long as Wall Street sees fit to keep lending a company money, you can keep going into bankruptcy.

Let's remember, bankruptcy is a situation where you don't pay your creditors any money while you reorganize. And -- but in this case, you know, as you start to go into bankruptcy a second time, there are real questions as to the long-term viability of this company. It may face liquidation.

What does this mean for U.S. Air? Travelers, well, it's going to keep flying, at least over the short terms. Frequent flyers, yes, you still have your miles. I would maybe go ahead and start using those. The stock is, obviously way, way, way down. And real questions. The company's in Arlington, Virginia. There was some question about that last week on this program, where they were based.

O'BRIEN: Is there a fundamental issue of overcapacity in the airline industry, though, I mean, major carriers? Isn't that too much?

SERWER: Right, and actually, well, there are seven, including Southwest, and two of them are in bankruptcy. You've got United in bankruptcy as well, Delta on the brink. So I think is real question as to whether they're going to have that many of them going forward in the long run.

O'BRIEN: All right, market preview for us.

SERWER: Just very quickly, markets are looking good. The futures are up. Markets up all around the globe this morning. We'll check back. All around the globe.

O'BRIEN: All right, thank you very much Andy Serwer.

COLLINS: I thought we were going to talk for a minute about that guy's landing.

O'BRIEN: Well, we showed that. Can we replay the U.S. Airway's landing?

COLLINS: The poor guy -- it's not a very good landing.

O'BRIEN: I mean, that poor guy, is probably about 10 years ago he did that landing, and he's regretted it ever since. And I think that's the 700th time I've seen it. I've seen it...

SERWER: Dark days.

O'BRIEN: I've seen that poor guy.

CAFFERTY: That may have been President Bush when he was flying for the Air National Guard.

John Kerry had nothing scheduled yesterday, except at some point during the day he picked up the phone and called "The New York Times." And he complained about the Bush administration's handling of what Kerry calls a "nuclear nightmare" in North Korea. He says the nuclear crisis there has escalated to the point that the country may be ready now to test a plutonium bomb. Kerry says the president should have directly negotiated with the North Koreans, instead of focusing on Iraq. That would be like unilateral negotiations, which Kerry has criticized Bush for doing in Iraq, but thinks he should have done in North Korea.

The president has refused direct talks, in favor of six-nation talks, citing a notion that North Korean's neighbors have the most to lose from its nuclear ambitions.

Meantime, some intelligence officials say that a large explosion seen near the northern border with China was not a nuclear bomb, but a demolition site. Nevertheless, this thing had a mushroom shaped cloud that measured two miles across, and that has raised some concerns. But they say it's not a nuclear bomb.

And here's the question, how should the U.S. deal with a potential nuclear threat from North Korea? E-mail us at am@cnn.com.

COLLINS: Apparently now the British foreign minister has asked that international diplomats actually go in and inspect this site.

SERWER: They are not going to let them in.

But it was a garbage dump, you know. They said it was just exploding up a big dump, right.

(CROSSTALK)

COLLINS: They say they're considering it.

CAFFERTY: Yes, right.

I bet you lunch that it doesn't happen in our lifetime.

COLLINS: I'm not saying it'll happen.

O'BRIEN: What about underground testing? I guess they haven't figured that out yet.

CAFFERTY: Well, we knew when the Russians did it, remember?

O'BRIEN: That's right. CAFFERTY: I mean, any time the Russians tested anything, it was in the newspapers before the smoke got out of the ground, and now we don't know what going on in -- I don't believe this. Something is amiss here.

COLLINS: All right, Jack, we'll wait to see what people have to say about that one this morning. Thanks so much.

CAFFERTY: And still to come, let's get your week started now with some "90-Second Pop." CBS says thanks, but no thanks to the Material Girl: why you won't see Madonna on free TV anytime soon. Plus, Gwyneth Paltrow says goodbye to movies? "90-Second Pop," ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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