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Hurricane Ivan Unpredictable, Powerful; What's Interesting About Polling; Scott Peterson Trial

Aired September 13, 2004 - 9:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Hurricane Ivan now becoming as unpredictable as it is powerful, and putting millions of people from Tampa to New Orleans on guard for disaster.
The U.S. military launches missiles in Fallujah, trying to crush the most dangerous terror group in Iraq.

And what's really going on in the latest polls to show John Kerry and George Bush getting closer together and further apart at the same time? Answers ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

COLLINS: Good morning, everybody. Bill and Soledad are off today. I'm Heidi Collins.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. I'm Miles O'Brien.

Stories we're following this morning: computer models are showing a number of very different paths for Hurricane Ivan over the next few days. Most of them point the Category 5 storm toward the Florida Panhandle, however. We'll talk to the emergency management director for one county there about the preparations, and we'll of course get the latest from Chad Myers.

COLLINS: Also ahead, former President Clinton has had a few days now to settle in at home for what will be an involved recovery process after his heart surgery. Sanjay Gupta will be with us later to look at what doctors had planned for the former president.

In the meantime, Jack Cafferty now.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Heidi.

What should the United States do about the potential nuclear threat by North Korea, is the e-mail "Question of the Day." AM@CNN.com. If you'd like to weight in, we'll read some of the answers a bit later.

COLLINS: All right, Jack. Thanks so much.

And we're going to check on the stories now making news with Daryn Kagan at the CNN Center.

Good morning once again, Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Heidi, good morning.

At least two people have been injured in a morning attack in western Baghdad. Images just coming into CNN.

Police say that a roadside bomb ripped through an Iraqi vehicle earlier this morning. Thirty-eight people were killed in violence in Baghdad over the past 24 hours.

Secretary of State Colin Powell heads to Capitol Hill this morning. Powell will testify before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. The lawmakers are looking into intelligence community support for homeland security and military operations. That hearing is set to begin in about a half-hour.

The federal ban on assault weapons expires tonight at midnight. For the first time in 10 years, it will be legal to buy firearms, like military-style AK-47s and UZIs. President Bush has said that he supports the ban, but a number of attempts to extend it in Congress have failed.

And Colorado will become home to the country's newest national park. Interior Secretary Gale Norton officially reclassified the Great Sand Dunes National Monument and Preserve later this morning. The dunes are North America's tallest, and they hug the bottom of the snowy Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Heidi, ever make it there during your time in Colorado?

COLLINS: I've been kind of all around the state. Beautiful. So glad they're getting another park. Good to go.

KAGAN: Yes.

COLLINS: All right. Thanks so much for that, Daryn.

You know, it's now pretty unclear whether the deadly Hurricane Ivan will clip the western tip of Cuba today. It could move towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula instead. Either way, the Category 5 hurricane promises to pack a powerful punch.

This was the scene this weekend in Jamaica. At least 17 people were killed, heavy winds and rain caused major damage there.

And here's a look at Ivan now. The huge hurricane moving between Cuba and Mexico. Ivan has sustained winds of 160 miles per hour. The gusts are even stronger.

At least 42 people throughout the Caribbean and Venezuela have been killed. Some reports put the death toll as high as 65.

The latest tracking maps show Ivan hitting somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and New Orleans later this week. In case Ivan does make landfall in the Panhandle, preparations are under day.

And Bob Majka is the emergency management director for Bay County, Florida. He is joining us now.

Good morning to you, sir. Thanks for being with us. We know it's a very, very busy time for you. Do you feel like you're prepared?

BOB MAJKA, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTOR, BAY COUNTY, FLORIDA: I do believe we're prepared, Heidi. We've been asking residents to make preparations since Thursday morning. And later on this afternoon we'll be making a determination as to whether or not we need to issue evacuation orders.

COLLINS: What's your biggest challenge, though, Mr. Majka?

MAJKA: I think the biggest challenge here locally is that, with our development boom over the last two years, we have a large number of residents who perhaps haven't been through tropical weather before. And we're trying to make sure we reach out to them and understand the severity of this system, and make sure that when we issue an evacuation order they do heed that and move out of harm's way.

COLLINS: And what about the emergency shelter situation there? Do you think you'll have enough of those setups should it come time for people to evacuate and at least get into shelters?

MAJKA: Certainly. We're one of the few counties in the state of Florida that currently does not have a shelter deficit. Historically, with catastrophic systems such as this, we've seen as much as 4,000 residents and visitors shelter. And we think we'll have adequate shelter space for those folks.

COLLINS: We know that you say a lot of people are novices, if you will, to this type of weather. But back in 1995, Hurricane Opal was in your area. How do you tell residents to prepare for something like that?

MAJKA: Well, I think primarily we start out with making sure they're aware of what evacuation zone they live in, in the county, making sure they understand what needs to be in their disaster preparedness kit, making sure they're educated about the impact that this storm could have here, and then preparing them, should they, you know, ride the storm out in the shelter or evacuate. We want them to know up front what kind of delays they could experience in government services, utilities and the like, and hope that they understand that for about a three-day period, should this storm make landfall here, they may be on their own until we can get assistance here.

COLLINS: Yes. I mean, we know right now that there are still hundreds of thousands of people in other parts of Florida that are still without power, dealing with sewer systems that are overrun. It's definitely an inconvenience.

Is there anything that you can learn, though, from these other hurricanes that have come through? Of course, first Hurricane Charley and then Hurricane Frances?

MAJKA: Certainly. The -- my counterparts in Punta Gorda, as well as other parts of the state, we communicate regularly. Certainly after Hurricane Charley we were in contact with those folks and looking what worked there and what didn't work. And we're making changes to our emergency plans here so that we don't experience some of those same shortcomings should we be impacted here in Panama City.

COLLINS: Well, Bob Majka, we certainly appreciate your time and wish you the best of luck. Emergency Management director for Bay County, Florida. Thanks again.

MAJKA: Thank you.

COLLINS: I want to get now to Chad Myers, who is at the CNN Center with the very latest on all of this.

Chad, you've been watching this thing like a hawk. What can you tell us now?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, you know what? Some of the outer bands, Heidi, even though the eye of the storm is well over 400 miles away from Key West, now one of the outer bands moving through Key West right now. And that's that flare-up right there that you see.

They had wind gusts there at over 32 miles per hour. So I know we try to focus on the eye so much, because it's going so fast at 160 miles per hour, but the folks in Key West and all the way up to Cudjo Key here seeing rain showers and thunderstorms way, way ahead of the eye.

The good news is the eye does not get into the Florida Keys, but it certainly could get very close to Mobile, Pensacola, all the way over to New Orleans. Now, this is about midnight Wednesday night, or two hours after that, for what's potential landfall here somewhere from the central sections of the Florida peninsula -- the Florida Panhandle, all the way back over even into New Orleans.

Until this thing literally makes its turn to the right, it's still going to keep skidding across the ocean toward the top, toward Cancun. And there are actually warnings out there, hurricane warnings. And when that finally does make the turn, we'll know where it goes.

Until it keeps going straight -- and it's going straight right now -- we'll have to maybe keep shifting that forecast over, over and over to the left. We'll have to keep watching it, though. The National Hurricane Center on top of it as well.

Heidi, back to you.

COLLINS: Yes. And certainly tough to predict, no question about it. Chad Myers, thanks so much.

Miles, over to you.

O'BRIEN: All right. From spinning storms to spin doctors, we're talking politics. Both campaigns have some room to operate now as we look at some polls. The question is, which poll do you believe?

"Newsweek's" survey of registered voters -- note the term there, "registered voters" -- shows the president with a six-point lead over Senator Kerry, down from 11 the week before. But a "TIME" poll of likely voters, different group, presumably, shows the president maintaining his 11-point lead. So, is the Bush bounce sticking or slipping? Sounds like just the job for CNN political analyst, Carlos Watson.

Good morning, Carlos. Good to have you with us.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: First of all, it wasn't that much of a bounce in the first place. But there was a bounce, nonetheless. Interpolate those two polls for us, if you will.

WATSON: Good news for the president any way you cut it. And kind of three things that stand out, Miles, when I look at it.

Number one, before the convention, remember, we said that the president really needed to make terrorism far and away the most important issue, more important than the economy, more important than the war in Iraq, because that's the issue he's strongest on versus John Kerry. He did that, and if you look at the "TIME" poll, that's the number one issue.

Number two, Democrats over the last three election cycles have typically beat Republicans soundly among women. But guess what? In the "TIME" poll, the Republican breaks -- the president, rather, breaks even with John Kerry among women. That's another reason you're beginning to see movement.

And last but not least, some of this good news in national polls, you're starting to see it in state polls. And most significantly, in some of the states where Democrats traditionally do well, states like Iowa. So some good news for the president a little bit past Labor Day.

O'BRIEN: The Bush campaign running like a well-oiled machine. And I suggest -- I suspect your advice would be, stay the course with them. What about the Kerry campaign? Got some problems there.

WATSON: Two important things. First and foremost, they still haven't established a brand, whether it's compassionate conservative or new Democrat. They still need to do that.

But there are also some hot issues underneath that brand that they can emphasize. One being outsourcing. We saw that work early in the primaries for some of the candidates. It might be an issue they explore.

Two, the issues of Saudi Arabia. We saw that during John Kerry's speech during the convention that was an issue that was well received.

Number three, you're going to hear them talk about a lot about Medicare and Social Security, reaching out to elderly voters in key states like Florida, of course, and saying those increases in premiums have happened on the Republican watch.

And last but not least, we haven't heard a lot about the Enron tax break. Remember we were hearing a lot about corporate crime, a lot about tax breaks and the -- what was fair and what wasn't fair? I would expect that John Kerry might go back to some of those issues again in order to attract some voters who may have left him over the last couple of months.

O'BRIEN: Of course, a lot of people would say the real problem with the Kerry campaign is they pick an issue virtually every day. Keeping the candidate on message has been a problem. And with time being so short, can they really re-brand this campaign in the time allotted?

WATSON: I don't know that you really have a choice, Miles. You've got to give some people something to clearly associate you with.

The reality is that, in many ways, the Bush -- Bush team has been the best one at branding the Kerry campaign, calling them flip- floppers. And you see that even in polls of Democrats. You see some hesitancy around that issue. So I don't think they have a choice but to offer a clear and compelling "here's who we are" message.

And you'll either see it, or you won't, in these last six or seven weeks. And if you don't, I think it's going to hurt them.

O'BRIEN: What's interesting is all of the polls show Americans want some change. And so President Bush has been saying, you want change? Elect me. Now, there should be a logical problem with that.

WATSON: A little political jujitsu, why not? They've been very good about that, not only saying that "I'm the vessel of change" -- and normally an incumbent is not seen as a vessel of change -- but also, in a race when an incumbent's involved, usually the person who is really scrutinized is the incumbent. But instead, they're actually putting the focus on the challenger.

John Kerry was the issue throughout the month of August. I think the Kerry team obviously needs to be more entrepreneurial, needs to figure out how to seize the agenda.

And one of the things I would look carefully at is their ad campaign. Will they offer some fresh, new and different campaign ads that break through the clutter? Because if you live in a place like my homes state of Florida, you've seen the same ads over and over again from both sides of the campaign.

O'BRIEN: And these debates seem awfully important to me.

WATSON: The debates are important. But you know what's more important maybe, Miles, at the moment? Believe it or not, voting starts today. A lot of people voting starts in two months.

O'BRIEN: That's a good point.

WATSON: But absentee balloting in North Carolina starts today. And in about 10 states this month, including key states like Iowa and Arizona, you can begin to get your absentee ballots.

Now, people say, well, why is that a big deal? Well, don't forget, four years ago, one out of seven ballots was cast by absentee ballots. This time, around maybe as much as 20 percent, or even 25 percent.

And if you go to a state like Iowa, those who voted on Election Day actually elected George Bush in 2000. But when they threw in the absentee ballots, Al Gore came out ahead by about 4,000 votes. So absentee ballots are going to play a critical role, and the balloting starts now, not in two months.

O'BRIEN: All right. Carlos Watson, thanks very much. Appreciate it.

WATSON: Good to see you. Good morning.

O'BRIEN: Heidi.

COLLINS: Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry yesterday accused the Bush administration of falsely making a link between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks. Vice President Dick Cheney had suggested there was such a link, but yesterday Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was no direct connection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: We know that there had been connections and there had been exchanges between al Qaeda and the Saddam Hussein regime, and those have been pursued and looked at. But I have seen nothing that makes the connection between Saddam Hussein, that awful regime, and what happened on 9/11.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: Senator Kerry, picking up on the apparent contradiction between Powell and Cheney, issued a written statement. In it, Kerry praised Powell and said, "The president needs to answer the question: who do you think is right, Vice President Cheney or Secretary Powell? Unfortunately, in its desperate attempts to reinvent a rationale for the Iraq war, this White House has repeatedly chosen to mislead the American people."

President Bush has explicitly said there was no direct connection between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks.

O'BRIEN: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, just what exactly was that mysterious explosion in North Korea? Serious questions are raised about the country's nuclear ambitions once again.

COLLINS: Also, former President Bill Clinton out of the hospital, but he still faces several challenges after undergoing quadruple bypass surgery. Dr. Sanjay Gupta has that.

O'BRIEN: And the Scott Peterson trial resumes this week. The prosecution may have to spend time repairing some self-inflicted wounds. We'll have a look at that as well. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Scott Peterson's father was on the witness stand last week, but did his testimony help or hinder the prosecution's case? Rusty Dornin with our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): No surprise that Lee Peterson is steadfast about his son Scott's innocence. Called to the stand, prosecutors tried to get the father to admit there were many things he didn't know about his son.

Lee Peterson acknowledged he didn't know his son bought a boat. But when questioned by the defense, said it wasn't unusual for his son not to tell him about large purchases. Nor did he think it was odd when Scott Peterson called him the afternoon of the 24th of December and didn't mention that he went fishing. Some legal analysts say Lee Peterson may have backfired as a prosecution witness, allowing jurors to see a different, more sympathetic side to the defendant.

DEAN JOHNSON, LEGAL ANALYST: He became a real person for this jury. And if you humanize the father, it becomes much more difficult for the jury to convict the son.

DORNIN: Prosecutors say this woman was pregnant at the same time as Laci Peterson, and walked in the neighborhood where Scott says Laci was walking the dog the day she disappeared. She's one of six women that testified.

Prosecutors maintain Laci Peterson never walked her dog that day, and witnesses who say they saw her might have been mistaken. The defense maintains the women either didn't resemble Peterson or didn't take a walk on the day she disappeared.

Earlier last week, an FBI expert on DNA testified that at least one strand of hair found on Scott Peterson's boat likely came from his wife. But defense attorney Mark Geragos has argued the type of DNA testing is not reliable. The defense also claims the hair was mishandled by investigators and could have been contaminated.

Up this week, an expert expected to testify about the accuracy of the GPS devices investigators used to follow Scott Peterson. And the prosecution is expected to wrap up its case by the end of September. The defense is estimating three weeks to present Scott Peterson's side of the story.

Rusty Dornin, CNN, Redwood City, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE) O'BRIEN: The double murder trial against Scott Peterson is now entering its 16th week.

Still to come on the program, predicting the path of Ivan. It could hit Cuba today. And after that, everything is up in the air, so to speak.

We'll take you live to one Florida community bracing for Ivan. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Time for Jack now and the "Question of the Day."

CAFFERTY: Thanks, Heidi.

We're talking about North Korea, the potential nuclear threat. Intelligence officials say that an explosion near the border between North Korea and China last week was not a nuclear bomb but rather was a demolition site. Nevertheless, there was a two-mile-wide mushroom cloud that evolved from this demolition site which doesn't -- apparently did not look anything like when they knocked down those casinos on the Las Vegas strip.

We've seen tape of that. There are no mushroom clouds associated with those.

So the question is: how should the U.S. deal with the potential nuclear threat from North Korea? Here's some of the e-mail we're getting.

Brad in Tampa, "I've been in the demolition industry for 25 years. I specialize in the demolition of power plants and large structures. Unless they made a mistake, there's no way you could produce a mushroom cloud with this type of explosion. A large dust cloud, yes, but not a mushroom cloud.

George in Macungie, Pennsylvania, "Nuclear threat? North Korea wants nuclear weapons? Let's give them some. We have an excess. Arm about 200 of them and missile them right on over."

Doug in Alturas, California, "Our technology can easily detect a nuclear explosion. What happened last week was that Kim Jong-Il ordered some Mexican food. This is what happens when you have the burrito grande without the Beano chaser."

(LAUGHTER)

CAFFERTY: And Dean in Marlton, New Jersey, writes -- we're not taking this seriously enough, I think -- Dean in Marlton, New Jersey, writes: "I think if we give Kim Jong-Il his own character on "South Park" he might be willing to abandon his nuclear weapons program.

(LAUGHTER)

COLLINS: For such a little guy, that would have been a very big cloud.

O'BRIEN: A mighty wind it was, huh? All right.

CAFFERTY: A little...

COLLINS: Jack, thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

COLLINS: Still to come this morning, your Monday morning dose of "90-Second Pop."

(MUSIC)

COLLINS: CBS says thanks but no thanks to the material girl. Why you won't see Madonna on free TV anytime soon.

Plus, Gwyneth Paltrow says good-bye to movies? "90-Second Pop" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired September 13, 2004 - 9:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Hurricane Ivan now becoming as unpredictable as it is powerful, and putting millions of people from Tampa to New Orleans on guard for disaster.
The U.S. military launches missiles in Fallujah, trying to crush the most dangerous terror group in Iraq.

And what's really going on in the latest polls to show John Kerry and George Bush getting closer together and further apart at the same time? Answers ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

COLLINS: Good morning, everybody. Bill and Soledad are off today. I'm Heidi Collins.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. I'm Miles O'Brien.

Stories we're following this morning: computer models are showing a number of very different paths for Hurricane Ivan over the next few days. Most of them point the Category 5 storm toward the Florida Panhandle, however. We'll talk to the emergency management director for one county there about the preparations, and we'll of course get the latest from Chad Myers.

COLLINS: Also ahead, former President Clinton has had a few days now to settle in at home for what will be an involved recovery process after his heart surgery. Sanjay Gupta will be with us later to look at what doctors had planned for the former president.

In the meantime, Jack Cafferty now.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Heidi.

What should the United States do about the potential nuclear threat by North Korea, is the e-mail "Question of the Day." AM@CNN.com. If you'd like to weight in, we'll read some of the answers a bit later.

COLLINS: All right, Jack. Thanks so much.

And we're going to check on the stories now making news with Daryn Kagan at the CNN Center.

Good morning once again, Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Heidi, good morning.

At least two people have been injured in a morning attack in western Baghdad. Images just coming into CNN.

Police say that a roadside bomb ripped through an Iraqi vehicle earlier this morning. Thirty-eight people were killed in violence in Baghdad over the past 24 hours.

Secretary of State Colin Powell heads to Capitol Hill this morning. Powell will testify before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. The lawmakers are looking into intelligence community support for homeland security and military operations. That hearing is set to begin in about a half-hour.

The federal ban on assault weapons expires tonight at midnight. For the first time in 10 years, it will be legal to buy firearms, like military-style AK-47s and UZIs. President Bush has said that he supports the ban, but a number of attempts to extend it in Congress have failed.

And Colorado will become home to the country's newest national park. Interior Secretary Gale Norton officially reclassified the Great Sand Dunes National Monument and Preserve later this morning. The dunes are North America's tallest, and they hug the bottom of the snowy Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Heidi, ever make it there during your time in Colorado?

COLLINS: I've been kind of all around the state. Beautiful. So glad they're getting another park. Good to go.

KAGAN: Yes.

COLLINS: All right. Thanks so much for that, Daryn.

You know, it's now pretty unclear whether the deadly Hurricane Ivan will clip the western tip of Cuba today. It could move towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula instead. Either way, the Category 5 hurricane promises to pack a powerful punch.

This was the scene this weekend in Jamaica. At least 17 people were killed, heavy winds and rain caused major damage there.

And here's a look at Ivan now. The huge hurricane moving between Cuba and Mexico. Ivan has sustained winds of 160 miles per hour. The gusts are even stronger.

At least 42 people throughout the Caribbean and Venezuela have been killed. Some reports put the death toll as high as 65.

The latest tracking maps show Ivan hitting somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and New Orleans later this week. In case Ivan does make landfall in the Panhandle, preparations are under day.

And Bob Majka is the emergency management director for Bay County, Florida. He is joining us now.

Good morning to you, sir. Thanks for being with us. We know it's a very, very busy time for you. Do you feel like you're prepared?

BOB MAJKA, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTOR, BAY COUNTY, FLORIDA: I do believe we're prepared, Heidi. We've been asking residents to make preparations since Thursday morning. And later on this afternoon we'll be making a determination as to whether or not we need to issue evacuation orders.

COLLINS: What's your biggest challenge, though, Mr. Majka?

MAJKA: I think the biggest challenge here locally is that, with our development boom over the last two years, we have a large number of residents who perhaps haven't been through tropical weather before. And we're trying to make sure we reach out to them and understand the severity of this system, and make sure that when we issue an evacuation order they do heed that and move out of harm's way.

COLLINS: And what about the emergency shelter situation there? Do you think you'll have enough of those setups should it come time for people to evacuate and at least get into shelters?

MAJKA: Certainly. We're one of the few counties in the state of Florida that currently does not have a shelter deficit. Historically, with catastrophic systems such as this, we've seen as much as 4,000 residents and visitors shelter. And we think we'll have adequate shelter space for those folks.

COLLINS: We know that you say a lot of people are novices, if you will, to this type of weather. But back in 1995, Hurricane Opal was in your area. How do you tell residents to prepare for something like that?

MAJKA: Well, I think primarily we start out with making sure they're aware of what evacuation zone they live in, in the county, making sure they understand what needs to be in their disaster preparedness kit, making sure they're educated about the impact that this storm could have here, and then preparing them, should they, you know, ride the storm out in the shelter or evacuate. We want them to know up front what kind of delays they could experience in government services, utilities and the like, and hope that they understand that for about a three-day period, should this storm make landfall here, they may be on their own until we can get assistance here.

COLLINS: Yes. I mean, we know right now that there are still hundreds of thousands of people in other parts of Florida that are still without power, dealing with sewer systems that are overrun. It's definitely an inconvenience.

Is there anything that you can learn, though, from these other hurricanes that have come through? Of course, first Hurricane Charley and then Hurricane Frances?

MAJKA: Certainly. The -- my counterparts in Punta Gorda, as well as other parts of the state, we communicate regularly. Certainly after Hurricane Charley we were in contact with those folks and looking what worked there and what didn't work. And we're making changes to our emergency plans here so that we don't experience some of those same shortcomings should we be impacted here in Panama City.

COLLINS: Well, Bob Majka, we certainly appreciate your time and wish you the best of luck. Emergency Management director for Bay County, Florida. Thanks again.

MAJKA: Thank you.

COLLINS: I want to get now to Chad Myers, who is at the CNN Center with the very latest on all of this.

Chad, you've been watching this thing like a hawk. What can you tell us now?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, you know what? Some of the outer bands, Heidi, even though the eye of the storm is well over 400 miles away from Key West, now one of the outer bands moving through Key West right now. And that's that flare-up right there that you see.

They had wind gusts there at over 32 miles per hour. So I know we try to focus on the eye so much, because it's going so fast at 160 miles per hour, but the folks in Key West and all the way up to Cudjo Key here seeing rain showers and thunderstorms way, way ahead of the eye.

The good news is the eye does not get into the Florida Keys, but it certainly could get very close to Mobile, Pensacola, all the way over to New Orleans. Now, this is about midnight Wednesday night, or two hours after that, for what's potential landfall here somewhere from the central sections of the Florida peninsula -- the Florida Panhandle, all the way back over even into New Orleans.

Until this thing literally makes its turn to the right, it's still going to keep skidding across the ocean toward the top, toward Cancun. And there are actually warnings out there, hurricane warnings. And when that finally does make the turn, we'll know where it goes.

Until it keeps going straight -- and it's going straight right now -- we'll have to maybe keep shifting that forecast over, over and over to the left. We'll have to keep watching it, though. The National Hurricane Center on top of it as well.

Heidi, back to you.

COLLINS: Yes. And certainly tough to predict, no question about it. Chad Myers, thanks so much.

Miles, over to you.

O'BRIEN: All right. From spinning storms to spin doctors, we're talking politics. Both campaigns have some room to operate now as we look at some polls. The question is, which poll do you believe?

"Newsweek's" survey of registered voters -- note the term there, "registered voters" -- shows the president with a six-point lead over Senator Kerry, down from 11 the week before. But a "TIME" poll of likely voters, different group, presumably, shows the president maintaining his 11-point lead. So, is the Bush bounce sticking or slipping? Sounds like just the job for CNN political analyst, Carlos Watson.

Good morning, Carlos. Good to have you with us.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: First of all, it wasn't that much of a bounce in the first place. But there was a bounce, nonetheless. Interpolate those two polls for us, if you will.

WATSON: Good news for the president any way you cut it. And kind of three things that stand out, Miles, when I look at it.

Number one, before the convention, remember, we said that the president really needed to make terrorism far and away the most important issue, more important than the economy, more important than the war in Iraq, because that's the issue he's strongest on versus John Kerry. He did that, and if you look at the "TIME" poll, that's the number one issue.

Number two, Democrats over the last three election cycles have typically beat Republicans soundly among women. But guess what? In the "TIME" poll, the Republican breaks -- the president, rather, breaks even with John Kerry among women. That's another reason you're beginning to see movement.

And last but not least, some of this good news in national polls, you're starting to see it in state polls. And most significantly, in some of the states where Democrats traditionally do well, states like Iowa. So some good news for the president a little bit past Labor Day.

O'BRIEN: The Bush campaign running like a well-oiled machine. And I suggest -- I suspect your advice would be, stay the course with them. What about the Kerry campaign? Got some problems there.

WATSON: Two important things. First and foremost, they still haven't established a brand, whether it's compassionate conservative or new Democrat. They still need to do that.

But there are also some hot issues underneath that brand that they can emphasize. One being outsourcing. We saw that work early in the primaries for some of the candidates. It might be an issue they explore.

Two, the issues of Saudi Arabia. We saw that during John Kerry's speech during the convention that was an issue that was well received.

Number three, you're going to hear them talk about a lot about Medicare and Social Security, reaching out to elderly voters in key states like Florida, of course, and saying those increases in premiums have happened on the Republican watch.

And last but not least, we haven't heard a lot about the Enron tax break. Remember we were hearing a lot about corporate crime, a lot about tax breaks and the -- what was fair and what wasn't fair? I would expect that John Kerry might go back to some of those issues again in order to attract some voters who may have left him over the last couple of months.

O'BRIEN: Of course, a lot of people would say the real problem with the Kerry campaign is they pick an issue virtually every day. Keeping the candidate on message has been a problem. And with time being so short, can they really re-brand this campaign in the time allotted?

WATSON: I don't know that you really have a choice, Miles. You've got to give some people something to clearly associate you with.

The reality is that, in many ways, the Bush -- Bush team has been the best one at branding the Kerry campaign, calling them flip- floppers. And you see that even in polls of Democrats. You see some hesitancy around that issue. So I don't think they have a choice but to offer a clear and compelling "here's who we are" message.

And you'll either see it, or you won't, in these last six or seven weeks. And if you don't, I think it's going to hurt them.

O'BRIEN: What's interesting is all of the polls show Americans want some change. And so President Bush has been saying, you want change? Elect me. Now, there should be a logical problem with that.

WATSON: A little political jujitsu, why not? They've been very good about that, not only saying that "I'm the vessel of change" -- and normally an incumbent is not seen as a vessel of change -- but also, in a race when an incumbent's involved, usually the person who is really scrutinized is the incumbent. But instead, they're actually putting the focus on the challenger.

John Kerry was the issue throughout the month of August. I think the Kerry team obviously needs to be more entrepreneurial, needs to figure out how to seize the agenda.

And one of the things I would look carefully at is their ad campaign. Will they offer some fresh, new and different campaign ads that break through the clutter? Because if you live in a place like my homes state of Florida, you've seen the same ads over and over again from both sides of the campaign.

O'BRIEN: And these debates seem awfully important to me.

WATSON: The debates are important. But you know what's more important maybe, Miles, at the moment? Believe it or not, voting starts today. A lot of people voting starts in two months.

O'BRIEN: That's a good point.

WATSON: But absentee balloting in North Carolina starts today. And in about 10 states this month, including key states like Iowa and Arizona, you can begin to get your absentee ballots.

Now, people say, well, why is that a big deal? Well, don't forget, four years ago, one out of seven ballots was cast by absentee ballots. This time, around maybe as much as 20 percent, or even 25 percent.

And if you go to a state like Iowa, those who voted on Election Day actually elected George Bush in 2000. But when they threw in the absentee ballots, Al Gore came out ahead by about 4,000 votes. So absentee ballots are going to play a critical role, and the balloting starts now, not in two months.

O'BRIEN: All right. Carlos Watson, thanks very much. Appreciate it.

WATSON: Good to see you. Good morning.

O'BRIEN: Heidi.

COLLINS: Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry yesterday accused the Bush administration of falsely making a link between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks. Vice President Dick Cheney had suggested there was such a link, but yesterday Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was no direct connection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: We know that there had been connections and there had been exchanges between al Qaeda and the Saddam Hussein regime, and those have been pursued and looked at. But I have seen nothing that makes the connection between Saddam Hussein, that awful regime, and what happened on 9/11.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: Senator Kerry, picking up on the apparent contradiction between Powell and Cheney, issued a written statement. In it, Kerry praised Powell and said, "The president needs to answer the question: who do you think is right, Vice President Cheney or Secretary Powell? Unfortunately, in its desperate attempts to reinvent a rationale for the Iraq war, this White House has repeatedly chosen to mislead the American people."

President Bush has explicitly said there was no direct connection between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks.

O'BRIEN: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, just what exactly was that mysterious explosion in North Korea? Serious questions are raised about the country's nuclear ambitions once again.

COLLINS: Also, former President Bill Clinton out of the hospital, but he still faces several challenges after undergoing quadruple bypass surgery. Dr. Sanjay Gupta has that.

O'BRIEN: And the Scott Peterson trial resumes this week. The prosecution may have to spend time repairing some self-inflicted wounds. We'll have a look at that as well. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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O'BRIEN: Scott Peterson's father was on the witness stand last week, but did his testimony help or hinder the prosecution's case? Rusty Dornin with our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): No surprise that Lee Peterson is steadfast about his son Scott's innocence. Called to the stand, prosecutors tried to get the father to admit there were many things he didn't know about his son.

Lee Peterson acknowledged he didn't know his son bought a boat. But when questioned by the defense, said it wasn't unusual for his son not to tell him about large purchases. Nor did he think it was odd when Scott Peterson called him the afternoon of the 24th of December and didn't mention that he went fishing. Some legal analysts say Lee Peterson may have backfired as a prosecution witness, allowing jurors to see a different, more sympathetic side to the defendant.

DEAN JOHNSON, LEGAL ANALYST: He became a real person for this jury. And if you humanize the father, it becomes much more difficult for the jury to convict the son.

DORNIN: Prosecutors say this woman was pregnant at the same time as Laci Peterson, and walked in the neighborhood where Scott says Laci was walking the dog the day she disappeared. She's one of six women that testified.

Prosecutors maintain Laci Peterson never walked her dog that day, and witnesses who say they saw her might have been mistaken. The defense maintains the women either didn't resemble Peterson or didn't take a walk on the day she disappeared.

Earlier last week, an FBI expert on DNA testified that at least one strand of hair found on Scott Peterson's boat likely came from his wife. But defense attorney Mark Geragos has argued the type of DNA testing is not reliable. The defense also claims the hair was mishandled by investigators and could have been contaminated.

Up this week, an expert expected to testify about the accuracy of the GPS devices investigators used to follow Scott Peterson. And the prosecution is expected to wrap up its case by the end of September. The defense is estimating three weeks to present Scott Peterson's side of the story.

Rusty Dornin, CNN, Redwood City, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE) O'BRIEN: The double murder trial against Scott Peterson is now entering its 16th week.

Still to come on the program, predicting the path of Ivan. It could hit Cuba today. And after that, everything is up in the air, so to speak.

We'll take you live to one Florida community bracing for Ivan. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Time for Jack now and the "Question of the Day."

CAFFERTY: Thanks, Heidi.

We're talking about North Korea, the potential nuclear threat. Intelligence officials say that an explosion near the border between North Korea and China last week was not a nuclear bomb but rather was a demolition site. Nevertheless, there was a two-mile-wide mushroom cloud that evolved from this demolition site which doesn't -- apparently did not look anything like when they knocked down those casinos on the Las Vegas strip.

We've seen tape of that. There are no mushroom clouds associated with those.

So the question is: how should the U.S. deal with the potential nuclear threat from North Korea? Here's some of the e-mail we're getting.

Brad in Tampa, "I've been in the demolition industry for 25 years. I specialize in the demolition of power plants and large structures. Unless they made a mistake, there's no way you could produce a mushroom cloud with this type of explosion. A large dust cloud, yes, but not a mushroom cloud.

George in Macungie, Pennsylvania, "Nuclear threat? North Korea wants nuclear weapons? Let's give them some. We have an excess. Arm about 200 of them and missile them right on over."

Doug in Alturas, California, "Our technology can easily detect a nuclear explosion. What happened last week was that Kim Jong-Il ordered some Mexican food. This is what happens when you have the burrito grande without the Beano chaser."

(LAUGHTER)

CAFFERTY: And Dean in Marlton, New Jersey, writes -- we're not taking this seriously enough, I think -- Dean in Marlton, New Jersey, writes: "I think if we give Kim Jong-Il his own character on "South Park" he might be willing to abandon his nuclear weapons program.

(LAUGHTER)

COLLINS: For such a little guy, that would have been a very big cloud.

O'BRIEN: A mighty wind it was, huh? All right.

CAFFERTY: A little...

COLLINS: Jack, thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

COLLINS: Still to come this morning, your Monday morning dose of "90-Second Pop."

(MUSIC)

COLLINS: CBS says thanks but no thanks to the material girl. Why you won't see Madonna on free TV anytime soon.

Plus, Gwyneth Paltrow says good-bye to movies? "90-Second Pop" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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