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American Morning

Hurricane Ivan Gaining Strength, Approaching Cuba; Kerry Campaign Plans to Hammer Home to Voters Stance on Domestic Issues

Aired September 13, 2004 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hurricane Ivan gaining in strength and approaching Cuba as a category five storm. They don't get any bigger than that, folks.
John Kerry takes aim at the expiring assault weapons ban as he unveils a $5 billion plan to fight crime.

And a punishing assault to tell you about in Fallujah. Has the U.S. zeroed in on the most wanted terrorist in Iraq?

All that on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

O'BRIEN: Cue the extras on the sidewalk there.

All right.

Good morning.

Bill and Soledad are off this morning.

I'm Miles O'Brien.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Heidi Collins.

Good to have you with us, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Good to be here.

Thank you.

COLLINS: It has been an exhausting four weeks for FEMA, dealing with two hurricanes in Florida already and there's still at least one more big storm to go. We're going to hear from FEMA's director, Michael Brown, in just a few minutes now, about the plan for the panhandle and whether there's enough money to actually do the job.

O'BRIEN: Also, let's talk homeland security. We'll do that with the author of the book "Treachery." He says some of the greatest dangers for the U.S. may be coming from our closest allies. We'll get an explanation on that.

Jack Cafferty is back from vacation. He's tanned, he's rested and he's ready. JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Miles.

That's a lot better intro than I get from Hemmer most of the time.

Coming up in the "Cafferty File" in a little less than an hour, a woman was discharged from the hospital seven months ago and she is refusing to leave. She's still there.

And a man is arrested for not leaving a big enough tip at a restaurant.

And I'm going to reach out to Sanjay Gupta to try and get some treatment for this news that Madonna is not going to do any more acting. I'm afraid it might throw me into a depression of some sort in which...

COLLINS: You mean Gwyneth Paltrow?

CAFFERTY: No, Madonna. Isn't she saying she's not going to do any movies?

COLLINS: No, but CBS says no, Madonna, you can't have a two hour show without commercials. But Gwyneth Paltrow asked for that.

CAFFERTY: But didn't Madonna says she wasn't going to do any more movies, movie acting?

COLLINS: I missed that. I don't know.

O'BRIEN: Has she ever done any acting at all?

CAFFERTY: If she has...

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: The point is if she hasn't, she shouldn't because she's terrible. Just the worst ever. What did she make, that film about Evita? Remember that thing? I mean...

COLLINS: It was just on last night.

O'BRIEN: One of the worst movies ever.

COLLINS: Oh my goodness.

CAFFERTY: Just awful.

Anyway, that's what I've got.

COLLINS: All right, Jack.

O'BRIEN: It's good to have you back.

CAFFERTY: In case you're interested.

Thank you, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, Jack.

COLLINS: Thanks so much.

CAFFERTY: Nice to have you here.

O'BRIEN: Yes, thank you.

COLLINS: We're going to check on the stories now in the news with Daryn Kagan.

She's at the CNN Center -- good morning to you, Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Heidi, good morning.

American troops are targeting operatives of suspected insurgent Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. U.S. fighter jets this morning pounded what is believed to be a meeting site in Fallujah, west of Baghdad. The strike comes a day after Iraqi sources say fighting and attacks in Iraq killed more than 75 people and wounded some 200 others.

The Food and Drug Administration is looking into the safety of anti-depressants. An advisory committee hearing is now getting under way in the Washington, D.C. area. Several panel members say that they will urge the FDA to pass tougher warnings that a child or a teenager given anti-depressants may become suicidal.

The federal ban on assault weapons expires tonight at midnight. For the first time in 10 years, it will be legal to buy firearms like military style AK-47s and Uzis. Congress would have to reauthorize the ban. President Clinton signed that ban back in 1994 outlawing 19 types of assault weapons.

This morning, accused deserter Sergeant Charles Jenkins is reporting to duty at a U.S. military base in Japan. Jenkins is accused of deserting to North Korea four decades ago, in 1965. He surrendered on Saturday and faces up to life in prison. No date has been set for his court martial -- Miles, we'll toss it back to you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

Thank you, Daryn.

We'll see you a little bit later.

The deadly hurricane Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today. This was the scene this weekend in Jamaica. Dramatic pictures. At least 17 killed there. Heavy winds and rain caused major damage.

Here's a look at Ivan now. The huge hurricane is sneaking between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. After that, Ivan's path is unclear. Ivan remains a category five hurricane, sustained maximum winds of 160 miles an hour now, gusts even stronger, of course. At least 42 people all throughout the Caribbean and Venezuela have been killed so far. Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today, before turning north toward the United States. The latest tracking maps show Ivan hitting the Florida Panhandle later in the week. Of course, it's early to predict that.

If Ivan continues on its current path, however, Panama City Beach is expected to get the brunt when it comes ashore in the Florida Panhandle.

Fire Chief John Daly is now with us from Panama City Beach.

Chief Daly, good to have you with us.

CHIEF JOHN DALY, PANAMA CITY BEACH FIRE DEPARTMENT: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Give us a sense of what's going on there right now in the way of preparations.

DALY: We're, the community is preparing, along with the Office of Emergency Management. There was a meeting yesterday at 4:00 with city and county leaders here in Bay County and in Panama City Beach. And preparations are being made. There will be another meeting this afternoon at 1:00 to update information and finalize some decisions.

O'BRIEN: Now, you bore the brunt of hurricane Charley after it passed over Florida and was reduced to a tropical storm.

Did that in any way sort of give you a dry run, a little bit of preparation, for this one?

DALY: I think this hurricane season has prepared Bay County. We've seen what has happened in south and central Florida and I -- my sense is no one's taking anything for granted. You can see houses are boarded up. The lines at the home improvement stores were long yesterday. And so people are preparing. You could sense that at the meeting in the emergency center yesterday, that people are taking this serious.

O'BRIEN: Now, this is a quiet time generally for tourism. But nevertheless, it's obviously a linchpin of the economy there.

Have tourists -- are they not showing up? Are they there? Are they evacuated? And how are the businesses doing in general?

DALY: I think that after Labor Day, we do see a lull in the tourism industry here. But certainly with the weather we're experiencing in Florida, I think people are -- have changed their plans and, you know, people are taking heat. Even if they were here over the weekend, they're keeping their eye on what's going on out there and they themselves, the tourists, are making preparations to evacuate if they need to.

O'BRIEN: Now I understand you have a planning meeting this afternoon. What's your biggest nagging concern right now?

DALY: It probably would be that decision about evacuation. That's always, you know, a tough decision to make. People don't want to leave their homes if they don't have to. But, you know, we know it's necessary. It comes to a point -- we've seen what has happened already, just in the last few weeks, in our state, you know, some of the largest evacuations ever.

So I'm sure that's the hardest decision that is put on the EOC here in Bay County.

O'BRIEN: An extraordinary hurricane season.

Chief John Daly with the Panama City Beach Fire Department.

Thanks for your time.

I know you're busy.

DALY: Thank you, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Yes.

DALY: You have a good day.

O'BRIEN: You, too -- Heidi.

COLLINS: Chad Myers is at the CNN Center now with the very latest forecast on all of this.

Good morning once again -- Chad.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Heidi.

Actually, the hurricane warnings now really in effect for the western tip of Cuba and also for the northeastern tip here of the Yucatan Peninsula. You can see the eye very clearly here, moving off to the west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour. One more thing I haven't been able to show you earlier, from the Weather Service out of Mexico, this is the Cancun radar. You can actually pick up the eye wall here.

Here's Cancun, Cozumel and then this part right up here, that's obviously the western tip of Cuba. The eye expected to go actually between the two areas, what's called the Yucatan Channel. So not really be affected too much by too much of the land mass, not slowing down very much.

If it hits land, typically a hurricane will slow down rather quickly. But if it doesn't hit land, it could still keep on going -- 155 by midnight tomorrow night, then 150 as it heads up toward the north.

Now, watch this, as it comes right through here, the center is still Mobile. But New Orleans, you're not out of the question yet, and all the way over even to Apalachi Bay not out of the question. The only good news is, Miles, right now at least the Weather Service, the Hurricane Center reducing the winds down to a category three hurricane before it actually makes landfall here in the U.S. because they're expecting some sheer here across parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

Here are all the computer models that we use. They're still not agreeing at all -- Miles, back to you.

O'BRIEN: I should say, that probably could confuse some folks. I guess the lesson is if you're anywhere in that part of the world, you should be paying close attention.

MYERS: Still almost three days away and the computers just don't know where it's going yet. So therefore, well, we don't either.

O'BRIEN: All right, Chad.

Thanks very much.

MYERS: You're welcome.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk politics now.

President Bush continues to hold a double digit lead over John Kerry in the latest "Time" magazine poll. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they'd vote for Mr. Bush. Forty-one percent said they'd vote for Senator Kerry. Three percent for Ralph Nader.

The president's strength among voters remains in national security. But his numbers begin to trail off on domestic issues, particularly the issue of health care. That's what he'll be talking about in Michigan today. Campaign stops include Muskegon, Holland and Battle Creek.

COLLINS: Now to the Kerry campaign, which says it's not worried about recent sagging numbers in the polls. Instead, advisers and the candidate himself say they plan to hammer home to voters their stance on domestic issues, including health care and the economy.

Here now, CNN's Dan Lothian.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Searching for solid footing in a campaign rocked by attacks, aides and advisers say Senator John Kerry will be forceful and direct on Iraq and domestic issues.

HOWARD WOLFSON, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, DNC: They're going to talk about the president's wrong priorities and wrong choices and get us back to talking about health care and the economy, jobs.

LOTHIAN: With eroding poll numbers, Kerry tells "Time," "Polls don't mean anything to me right now." He added that, "I feel very confident in where we are and confident about the direction of this race." But Kerry joked about the need for better poll numbers while speaking to members of the Black Congressional Caucus in Washington Saturday night, envying the standing of a U.S. congressman from Maryland.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The latest survey has him up about 80-20. So I said want to trade?

LOTHIAN: Some Democrats have argued Kerry's campaign lacks focus and that his response to attacks on his Vietnam record have been slow. While defending his strategy in the "Time" interview, Kerry slams the Bush campaign tactics, critical ads and recent comments by Vice President Dick Cheney about the risk of more terrorist attacks if he were elected.

Kerry says, "I think the president's unwillingness to walk away from those comments makes it clear that he and the vice president will say anything and do anything to get elected and to hold onto power."

(on camera): As the assault weapons ban expires later today, Kerry will use his support for extending it to criticize President Bush and to appeal to voters, telling them they will now be less safe from criminals and terrorists, a theme aides say he will hit hard at an anti-crime event in Washington today.

Dan Lothian, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

COLLINS: Senator Kerry is also preparing for a showdown with President Bush in the first of an expected three debates scheduled for the end of the month.

O'BRIEN: We'll be watching those, for sure.

Still to come on the program, America faces threats from around the globe. But one author says some U.S. allies may pose the biggest risk of all. We'll talk to him.

COLLINS: Also, more on hurricane Ivan, of course. We'll show you one of the areas hit especially hard as the storm steams across the Caribbean.

O'BRIEN: And a new book says Michael Jackson fooled everyone back in 1993. The uncle of the boy involved in those sex abuse allegations is speaking out now. He will join us ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. A new book puts a disturbing spin on that saying. It says the greatest threat to U.S. national security may come from its closest allies.

Bill Gertz is the author of "Treachery: How America's Friends and Foes Are Secretly Arming Our Enemies." He's joining us now from Washington this morning.

Mr. Gertz, thanks for being with us.

BILL GERTZ, "WASHINGTON TIMES" REPORTER: Hi.

Good morning.

COLLINS: One of the things that you allege in your book is that American soldiers in Iraq are being killed by weapons that are actually supplied by U.S. allies.

How does that happen?

GERTZ: Well, Heidi, that is the conclusion of a Pentagon report that was done after the war. And they found that the massive amounts of conventional weapons found in Iraq, the big three suppliers of those weapons were Russia, China and France. And up to 24 foreign countries in addition to that. And these weapons were used against U.S. forces during the conflict and continue to be used against Iraqis and coalition forces now.

COLLINS: Well, if this comes from the Pentagon, this report, then what are they doing about it?

GERTZ: Well, it's a big problem. The amounts of weapons in the country are staggering. The totals are somewhere between 650,000 tons to a million tons. It's a big problem. They don't even have enough soldiers to guard all of these dumps. In some cases, they take bulldozers and try to cover up the front entrances. But obviously some of the insurgents know where these arms are and are going after them.

COLLINS: Of course, we should be talking about al Qaeda, too, obviously a threat to the United States. You say in your book that there is evidence that China is actually selling arms to al Qaeda. This started happening right after September 11.

How do you know that?

GERTZ: Well, there were intelligence reports to that effect and also after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, they found large amounts of Chinese weaponry that had been brought in and used to supply both the Taliban and al Qaeda.

There's also indications from intelligence that there was training going on by the Chinese. This has a lot of officials perplexed as to why the Chinese would be doing this. But it's hard to figure out what the Chinese are up to when you look at it through an American perspective.

COLLINS: Also, al Qaeda and the possibility that they may actually have nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Certainly not a comforting thought, from what we have seen here in America.

GERTZ: No. The way I look at it in this book is that there are two threat streams out there heading down. One is the terrorism stream and the other is the weapons proliferation stream. And a lot of officials are very worried that down the road they're going to mesh and they're going to be -- al Qaeda is going to get some type of nerve agent, they're going to get some type of chemical or biological weapons and possibly even nuclear weapons.

It's a huge problem that needs to be addressed and I hope to shed some light and get some public debate going on the issue through this book.

COLLINS: Well, that's right. And there are many things in your book about different countries and the threats that are out there.

What is the government -- I mean when they look at all of these things, surely they know about some of the facts that you have or some of the allegations, I should say, in your book.

Are you hearing anything from the government?

GERTZ: Well, take the example of North Korea. One of the big problems we have is that we really need to fix our intelligence. The arms proliferation problem is really an intelligence intensive discipline. And as we can see from the latest news headlines, you know, we don't have good intelligence inside North Korea. We can take pictures of it and listen in on their communications, but when something happens, we don't really have good intelligence.

We need that. And we also need to use some of the methods that we're using in the war on terrorism to stop arms transfers, namely better special forces and better training those special forces to go after and interdict arms and arms technology transfers.

COLLINS: Well, we should also make it clear, Mr. Gertz, that, of course, in your book a lot of this information comes from reproductions of documents from the CIA and interpretations of those documents, which sometimes can be wrong.

How do you know that the information that you have found here is all that reliable?

GERTZ: Well, you know, I have the documents to show what I'm writing about in the book. And I went, took the trouble of having the agency take a look at those documents and I can tell you this, that they were very concerned about the disclosure of that information. If it was bad information, I don't think they'd want -- have a problem with that.

As I said, I withheld a lot of that information on national security grounds, but I felt it was important to make a case to let the American people know what's really going on out there in terms of how these arms are spreading around the world.

COLLINS: Bill Gertz, appreciate your time this morning.

The name of the book, "Treachery: How America's Friends and Foes Are Secretly Arming Our Enemies." Thanks again for your time -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Still to come on the program, it's easy to see the physical damage done by a hurricane. But what kind of emotional damage does it do as people are forced to watch and wait for one to arrive? We're "Paging Dr. Gupta" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Well, we do know this, there was a mushroom cloud over North Korea. But when is a mushroom cloud just a mushroom cloud?

Jack Cafferty has the answer to that and many other questions for us.

CAFFERTY: Unbelievable. You know, we're talking about this North Korea thing and they've got this two mile wide mushroom cloud and they say no, it was not a nuclear weapons test, even though that little guy in the black pajamas has been threatening to have one of these for a while. They say no, that wasn't it. It was a...

O'BRIEN: Does he have feet?

CAFFERTY: Huh?

O'BRIEN: Does it have feet, do you think, the (UNINTELLIGIBLE)?

CAFFERTY: I don't know. They say it was a demolitions site. What if it was a nuclear weapons test? Well, that would require that we do something about it, presumably. So maybe it's just easier to say nah, it was a demolition site.

Anyway, the question is what should the United States do about the potential threat from North Korea -- nuclear threat? Or demolition site threat?

Nora in Arizona: "Fly over, drop large amounts of food with "USA" written in bold print on the packages. Change the hearts of the people and you incapacitate the leader."

Frank in New York: "The U.S. should simply buy North Korea's nukes from them. We would at the same time increase our own arsenal, provide income for North Korea and prevent the weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists."

Rick in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania: "Get the intelligence right and then take it out with a surgical strike like the Israelis did in Iraq in the 1980s. There seems to be no reason to continue talking to them when we're getting nowhere. The same should be done in Iran."

And Ron in Elmira, New York: "Let the French and Germans under the leadership of John Kerry resolve the situation."

COLLINS: Yikes!

CAFFERTY: Yes. Yikes? COLLINS: Yes, yikes. It could be a U.N. situation, obviously. If they bring them in, then maybe they can do something about it.

CAFFERTY: The U.N.? Usually nothing is what that stands for.

COLLINS: Usually nothing.

All right, Jack, thanks so much.

Still ahead this morning, Michael Jackson stands accused of molesting a young boy. Eleven years ago, Jackson faced similar allegations, but the case never made it to court. One man, the first accuser's uncle, says the singer put one over on everybody. We'll talk to him here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Get the latest news every morning in your e-mail. Sign up for AMERICAN MORNING Quick News at cnn.com/am.

Still to come on the program, new hope for those of you who think the Hummer H-2 doesn't have enough leg room.

Stay with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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9


Aired September 13, 2004 - 08:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hurricane Ivan gaining in strength and approaching Cuba as a category five storm. They don't get any bigger than that, folks.
John Kerry takes aim at the expiring assault weapons ban as he unveils a $5 billion plan to fight crime.

And a punishing assault to tell you about in Fallujah. Has the U.S. zeroed in on the most wanted terrorist in Iraq?

All that on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

O'BRIEN: Cue the extras on the sidewalk there.

All right.

Good morning.

Bill and Soledad are off this morning.

I'm Miles O'Brien.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Heidi Collins.

Good to have you with us, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Good to be here.

Thank you.

COLLINS: It has been an exhausting four weeks for FEMA, dealing with two hurricanes in Florida already and there's still at least one more big storm to go. We're going to hear from FEMA's director, Michael Brown, in just a few minutes now, about the plan for the panhandle and whether there's enough money to actually do the job.

O'BRIEN: Also, let's talk homeland security. We'll do that with the author of the book "Treachery." He says some of the greatest dangers for the U.S. may be coming from our closest allies. We'll get an explanation on that.

Jack Cafferty is back from vacation. He's tanned, he's rested and he's ready. JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Miles.

That's a lot better intro than I get from Hemmer most of the time.

Coming up in the "Cafferty File" in a little less than an hour, a woman was discharged from the hospital seven months ago and she is refusing to leave. She's still there.

And a man is arrested for not leaving a big enough tip at a restaurant.

And I'm going to reach out to Sanjay Gupta to try and get some treatment for this news that Madonna is not going to do any more acting. I'm afraid it might throw me into a depression of some sort in which...

COLLINS: You mean Gwyneth Paltrow?

CAFFERTY: No, Madonna. Isn't she saying she's not going to do any movies?

COLLINS: No, but CBS says no, Madonna, you can't have a two hour show without commercials. But Gwyneth Paltrow asked for that.

CAFFERTY: But didn't Madonna says she wasn't going to do any more movies, movie acting?

COLLINS: I missed that. I don't know.

O'BRIEN: Has she ever done any acting at all?

CAFFERTY: If she has...

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: The point is if she hasn't, she shouldn't because she's terrible. Just the worst ever. What did she make, that film about Evita? Remember that thing? I mean...

COLLINS: It was just on last night.

O'BRIEN: One of the worst movies ever.

COLLINS: Oh my goodness.

CAFFERTY: Just awful.

Anyway, that's what I've got.

COLLINS: All right, Jack.

O'BRIEN: It's good to have you back.

CAFFERTY: In case you're interested.

Thank you, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, Jack.

COLLINS: Thanks so much.

CAFFERTY: Nice to have you here.

O'BRIEN: Yes, thank you.

COLLINS: We're going to check on the stories now in the news with Daryn Kagan.

She's at the CNN Center -- good morning to you, Daryn.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Heidi, good morning.

American troops are targeting operatives of suspected insurgent Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. U.S. fighter jets this morning pounded what is believed to be a meeting site in Fallujah, west of Baghdad. The strike comes a day after Iraqi sources say fighting and attacks in Iraq killed more than 75 people and wounded some 200 others.

The Food and Drug Administration is looking into the safety of anti-depressants. An advisory committee hearing is now getting under way in the Washington, D.C. area. Several panel members say that they will urge the FDA to pass tougher warnings that a child or a teenager given anti-depressants may become suicidal.

The federal ban on assault weapons expires tonight at midnight. For the first time in 10 years, it will be legal to buy firearms like military style AK-47s and Uzis. Congress would have to reauthorize the ban. President Clinton signed that ban back in 1994 outlawing 19 types of assault weapons.

This morning, accused deserter Sergeant Charles Jenkins is reporting to duty at a U.S. military base in Japan. Jenkins is accused of deserting to North Korea four decades ago, in 1965. He surrendered on Saturday and faces up to life in prison. No date has been set for his court martial -- Miles, we'll toss it back to you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

Thank you, Daryn.

We'll see you a little bit later.

The deadly hurricane Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today. This was the scene this weekend in Jamaica. Dramatic pictures. At least 17 killed there. Heavy winds and rain caused major damage.

Here's a look at Ivan now. The huge hurricane is sneaking between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. After that, Ivan's path is unclear. Ivan remains a category five hurricane, sustained maximum winds of 160 miles an hour now, gusts even stronger, of course. At least 42 people all throughout the Caribbean and Venezuela have been killed so far. Ivan could clip the western tip of Cuba today, before turning north toward the United States. The latest tracking maps show Ivan hitting the Florida Panhandle later in the week. Of course, it's early to predict that.

If Ivan continues on its current path, however, Panama City Beach is expected to get the brunt when it comes ashore in the Florida Panhandle.

Fire Chief John Daly is now with us from Panama City Beach.

Chief Daly, good to have you with us.

CHIEF JOHN DALY, PANAMA CITY BEACH FIRE DEPARTMENT: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Give us a sense of what's going on there right now in the way of preparations.

DALY: We're, the community is preparing, along with the Office of Emergency Management. There was a meeting yesterday at 4:00 with city and county leaders here in Bay County and in Panama City Beach. And preparations are being made. There will be another meeting this afternoon at 1:00 to update information and finalize some decisions.

O'BRIEN: Now, you bore the brunt of hurricane Charley after it passed over Florida and was reduced to a tropical storm.

Did that in any way sort of give you a dry run, a little bit of preparation, for this one?

DALY: I think this hurricane season has prepared Bay County. We've seen what has happened in south and central Florida and I -- my sense is no one's taking anything for granted. You can see houses are boarded up. The lines at the home improvement stores were long yesterday. And so people are preparing. You could sense that at the meeting in the emergency center yesterday, that people are taking this serious.

O'BRIEN: Now, this is a quiet time generally for tourism. But nevertheless, it's obviously a linchpin of the economy there.

Have tourists -- are they not showing up? Are they there? Are they evacuated? And how are the businesses doing in general?

DALY: I think that after Labor Day, we do see a lull in the tourism industry here. But certainly with the weather we're experiencing in Florida, I think people are -- have changed their plans and, you know, people are taking heat. Even if they were here over the weekend, they're keeping their eye on what's going on out there and they themselves, the tourists, are making preparations to evacuate if they need to.

O'BRIEN: Now I understand you have a planning meeting this afternoon. What's your biggest nagging concern right now?

DALY: It probably would be that decision about evacuation. That's always, you know, a tough decision to make. People don't want to leave their homes if they don't have to. But, you know, we know it's necessary. It comes to a point -- we've seen what has happened already, just in the last few weeks, in our state, you know, some of the largest evacuations ever.

So I'm sure that's the hardest decision that is put on the EOC here in Bay County.

O'BRIEN: An extraordinary hurricane season.

Chief John Daly with the Panama City Beach Fire Department.

Thanks for your time.

I know you're busy.

DALY: Thank you, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Yes.

DALY: You have a good day.

O'BRIEN: You, too -- Heidi.

COLLINS: Chad Myers is at the CNN Center now with the very latest forecast on all of this.

Good morning once again -- Chad.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Heidi.

Actually, the hurricane warnings now really in effect for the western tip of Cuba and also for the northeastern tip here of the Yucatan Peninsula. You can see the eye very clearly here, moving off to the west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour. One more thing I haven't been able to show you earlier, from the Weather Service out of Mexico, this is the Cancun radar. You can actually pick up the eye wall here.

Here's Cancun, Cozumel and then this part right up here, that's obviously the western tip of Cuba. The eye expected to go actually between the two areas, what's called the Yucatan Channel. So not really be affected too much by too much of the land mass, not slowing down very much.

If it hits land, typically a hurricane will slow down rather quickly. But if it doesn't hit land, it could still keep on going -- 155 by midnight tomorrow night, then 150 as it heads up toward the north.

Now, watch this, as it comes right through here, the center is still Mobile. But New Orleans, you're not out of the question yet, and all the way over even to Apalachi Bay not out of the question. The only good news is, Miles, right now at least the Weather Service, the Hurricane Center reducing the winds down to a category three hurricane before it actually makes landfall here in the U.S. because they're expecting some sheer here across parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

Here are all the computer models that we use. They're still not agreeing at all -- Miles, back to you.

O'BRIEN: I should say, that probably could confuse some folks. I guess the lesson is if you're anywhere in that part of the world, you should be paying close attention.

MYERS: Still almost three days away and the computers just don't know where it's going yet. So therefore, well, we don't either.

O'BRIEN: All right, Chad.

Thanks very much.

MYERS: You're welcome.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk politics now.

President Bush continues to hold a double digit lead over John Kerry in the latest "Time" magazine poll. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they'd vote for Mr. Bush. Forty-one percent said they'd vote for Senator Kerry. Three percent for Ralph Nader.

The president's strength among voters remains in national security. But his numbers begin to trail off on domestic issues, particularly the issue of health care. That's what he'll be talking about in Michigan today. Campaign stops include Muskegon, Holland and Battle Creek.

COLLINS: Now to the Kerry campaign, which says it's not worried about recent sagging numbers in the polls. Instead, advisers and the candidate himself say they plan to hammer home to voters their stance on domestic issues, including health care and the economy.

Here now, CNN's Dan Lothian.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Searching for solid footing in a campaign rocked by attacks, aides and advisers say Senator John Kerry will be forceful and direct on Iraq and domestic issues.

HOWARD WOLFSON, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, DNC: They're going to talk about the president's wrong priorities and wrong choices and get us back to talking about health care and the economy, jobs.

LOTHIAN: With eroding poll numbers, Kerry tells "Time," "Polls don't mean anything to me right now." He added that, "I feel very confident in where we are and confident about the direction of this race." But Kerry joked about the need for better poll numbers while speaking to members of the Black Congressional Caucus in Washington Saturday night, envying the standing of a U.S. congressman from Maryland.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The latest survey has him up about 80-20. So I said want to trade?

LOTHIAN: Some Democrats have argued Kerry's campaign lacks focus and that his response to attacks on his Vietnam record have been slow. While defending his strategy in the "Time" interview, Kerry slams the Bush campaign tactics, critical ads and recent comments by Vice President Dick Cheney about the risk of more terrorist attacks if he were elected.

Kerry says, "I think the president's unwillingness to walk away from those comments makes it clear that he and the vice president will say anything and do anything to get elected and to hold onto power."

(on camera): As the assault weapons ban expires later today, Kerry will use his support for extending it to criticize President Bush and to appeal to voters, telling them they will now be less safe from criminals and terrorists, a theme aides say he will hit hard at an anti-crime event in Washington today.

Dan Lothian, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

COLLINS: Senator Kerry is also preparing for a showdown with President Bush in the first of an expected three debates scheduled for the end of the month.

O'BRIEN: We'll be watching those, for sure.

Still to come on the program, America faces threats from around the globe. But one author says some U.S. allies may pose the biggest risk of all. We'll talk to him.

COLLINS: Also, more on hurricane Ivan, of course. We'll show you one of the areas hit especially hard as the storm steams across the Caribbean.

O'BRIEN: And a new book says Michael Jackson fooled everyone back in 1993. The uncle of the boy involved in those sex abuse allegations is speaking out now. He will join us ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. A new book puts a disturbing spin on that saying. It says the greatest threat to U.S. national security may come from its closest allies.

Bill Gertz is the author of "Treachery: How America's Friends and Foes Are Secretly Arming Our Enemies." He's joining us now from Washington this morning.

Mr. Gertz, thanks for being with us.

BILL GERTZ, "WASHINGTON TIMES" REPORTER: Hi.

Good morning.

COLLINS: One of the things that you allege in your book is that American soldiers in Iraq are being killed by weapons that are actually supplied by U.S. allies.

How does that happen?

GERTZ: Well, Heidi, that is the conclusion of a Pentagon report that was done after the war. And they found that the massive amounts of conventional weapons found in Iraq, the big three suppliers of those weapons were Russia, China and France. And up to 24 foreign countries in addition to that. And these weapons were used against U.S. forces during the conflict and continue to be used against Iraqis and coalition forces now.

COLLINS: Well, if this comes from the Pentagon, this report, then what are they doing about it?

GERTZ: Well, it's a big problem. The amounts of weapons in the country are staggering. The totals are somewhere between 650,000 tons to a million tons. It's a big problem. They don't even have enough soldiers to guard all of these dumps. In some cases, they take bulldozers and try to cover up the front entrances. But obviously some of the insurgents know where these arms are and are going after them.

COLLINS: Of course, we should be talking about al Qaeda, too, obviously a threat to the United States. You say in your book that there is evidence that China is actually selling arms to al Qaeda. This started happening right after September 11.

How do you know that?

GERTZ: Well, there were intelligence reports to that effect and also after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, they found large amounts of Chinese weaponry that had been brought in and used to supply both the Taliban and al Qaeda.

There's also indications from intelligence that there was training going on by the Chinese. This has a lot of officials perplexed as to why the Chinese would be doing this. But it's hard to figure out what the Chinese are up to when you look at it through an American perspective.

COLLINS: Also, al Qaeda and the possibility that they may actually have nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Certainly not a comforting thought, from what we have seen here in America.

GERTZ: No. The way I look at it in this book is that there are two threat streams out there heading down. One is the terrorism stream and the other is the weapons proliferation stream. And a lot of officials are very worried that down the road they're going to mesh and they're going to be -- al Qaeda is going to get some type of nerve agent, they're going to get some type of chemical or biological weapons and possibly even nuclear weapons.

It's a huge problem that needs to be addressed and I hope to shed some light and get some public debate going on the issue through this book.

COLLINS: Well, that's right. And there are many things in your book about different countries and the threats that are out there.

What is the government -- I mean when they look at all of these things, surely they know about some of the facts that you have or some of the allegations, I should say, in your book.

Are you hearing anything from the government?

GERTZ: Well, take the example of North Korea. One of the big problems we have is that we really need to fix our intelligence. The arms proliferation problem is really an intelligence intensive discipline. And as we can see from the latest news headlines, you know, we don't have good intelligence inside North Korea. We can take pictures of it and listen in on their communications, but when something happens, we don't really have good intelligence.

We need that. And we also need to use some of the methods that we're using in the war on terrorism to stop arms transfers, namely better special forces and better training those special forces to go after and interdict arms and arms technology transfers.

COLLINS: Well, we should also make it clear, Mr. Gertz, that, of course, in your book a lot of this information comes from reproductions of documents from the CIA and interpretations of those documents, which sometimes can be wrong.

How do you know that the information that you have found here is all that reliable?

GERTZ: Well, you know, I have the documents to show what I'm writing about in the book. And I went, took the trouble of having the agency take a look at those documents and I can tell you this, that they were very concerned about the disclosure of that information. If it was bad information, I don't think they'd want -- have a problem with that.

As I said, I withheld a lot of that information on national security grounds, but I felt it was important to make a case to let the American people know what's really going on out there in terms of how these arms are spreading around the world.

COLLINS: Bill Gertz, appreciate your time this morning.

The name of the book, "Treachery: How America's Friends and Foes Are Secretly Arming Our Enemies." Thanks again for your time -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Still to come on the program, it's easy to see the physical damage done by a hurricane. But what kind of emotional damage does it do as people are forced to watch and wait for one to arrive? We're "Paging Dr. Gupta" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Well, we do know this, there was a mushroom cloud over North Korea. But when is a mushroom cloud just a mushroom cloud?

Jack Cafferty has the answer to that and many other questions for us.

CAFFERTY: Unbelievable. You know, we're talking about this North Korea thing and they've got this two mile wide mushroom cloud and they say no, it was not a nuclear weapons test, even though that little guy in the black pajamas has been threatening to have one of these for a while. They say no, that wasn't it. It was a...

O'BRIEN: Does he have feet?

CAFFERTY: Huh?

O'BRIEN: Does it have feet, do you think, the (UNINTELLIGIBLE)?

CAFFERTY: I don't know. They say it was a demolitions site. What if it was a nuclear weapons test? Well, that would require that we do something about it, presumably. So maybe it's just easier to say nah, it was a demolition site.

Anyway, the question is what should the United States do about the potential threat from North Korea -- nuclear threat? Or demolition site threat?

Nora in Arizona: "Fly over, drop large amounts of food with "USA" written in bold print on the packages. Change the hearts of the people and you incapacitate the leader."

Frank in New York: "The U.S. should simply buy North Korea's nukes from them. We would at the same time increase our own arsenal, provide income for North Korea and prevent the weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists."

Rick in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania: "Get the intelligence right and then take it out with a surgical strike like the Israelis did in Iraq in the 1980s. There seems to be no reason to continue talking to them when we're getting nowhere. The same should be done in Iran."

And Ron in Elmira, New York: "Let the French and Germans under the leadership of John Kerry resolve the situation."

COLLINS: Yikes!

CAFFERTY: Yes. Yikes? COLLINS: Yes, yikes. It could be a U.N. situation, obviously. If they bring them in, then maybe they can do something about it.

CAFFERTY: The U.N.? Usually nothing is what that stands for.

COLLINS: Usually nothing.

All right, Jack, thanks so much.

Still ahead this morning, Michael Jackson stands accused of molesting a young boy. Eleven years ago, Jackson faced similar allegations, but the case never made it to court. One man, the first accuser's uncle, says the singer put one over on everybody. We'll talk to him here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Get the latest news every morning in your e-mail. Sign up for AMERICAN MORNING Quick News at cnn.com/am.

Still to come on the program, new hope for those of you who think the Hummer H-2 doesn't have enough leg room.

Stay with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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