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American Morning
Interview With National Hurricane Center Forecaster Rick Nabb; Gulf Coast Residents Preparing for Ivan
Aired September 15, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Time is running out for the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Ivan is now closing in and looking every bit the giant they predicted.
And crawling from New Orleans, evacuating a major U.S. city and doing it at a snail's pace.
And don't look now, but there is yet another one out there. Tropical Storm Jeanne is gaining strength and already threatening land on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING. Here's Bill Hemmer.
HEMMER: Good morning. It is calm now, but a powerful hurricane is now rumbling this way. And good morning, everyone. From Mobile, Alabama, I'm Bill Hemmer.
Ivan is heading for the coast. Where exactly it will hit is still unknown. And that's what we are all waiting on today.
A hurricane warning in effect for a 300-mile stretch of the Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Apalachicola, Florida, in the east. The mayor of New Orleans is ordering and urging its city's half million residents to get out of town. Thousands have been heeding that warning in bumper-to-bumper traffic going north and going west.
Right now, Ivan is about 200 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving at about 12 miles an hour, which is a bit faster than this time yesterday evening, last night, when we went to sleep here in Mobile.
Ivan is still a category 4 hurricane with winds nearing 140 miles an hour. Hurricane-force winds can be felt more than 100 miles away from the eye of that storm, and expected to make landfall early tomorrow morning.
Much more as we go throughout the morning here. I'll be live in Mobile. But also my colleague, Heidi Collins, is back in New York City.
And, Heidi, good morning to you as well.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Bill.
Other stories that we are following today. Will the renewed debate over President Bush's military service affect his support among voters? We're looking at that with CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein.
Also this hour, before there were all of those gigantic weather computers predicting hurricanes, it was a matter for the old "Farmer's Almanac." Remember that? We'll talk to the editor of the almanac a little later about their forecast this year.
Have you ever read the almanac?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, yes. It's my bible.
COLLINS: Is it really?
CAFFERTY: Yes. That and Chad Myers are the things that I plan my live on.
COLLINS: There you go.
CAFFERTY: Dan Rather and the "CBS Evening News" remain very much on the defensive over questions around the authenticity of the documents that were used to compile this report about President Bush's service in the National Guard. We will take a closer look at that in a few minutes.
COLLINS: All right, very good. Thanks, Jack.
To the news now this morning. First off, we take you to Iraq, where three decapitated bodies have been found there this morning. Military sources say the corpses were discovered in a town some 45 miles northeast of Baghdad. The victims have been identified as Iraqi civilians.
And a Turkish man held hostage for 50 days is free this morning. The man arrived at the Turkish embassy in Baghdad just hours ago.
The first day of class is now under way in Beslan, Russia some two weeks after the terrorist standoff that left more than 330 hostages dead. Almost all schools in the city reopened this morning. The building where the siege was held remains closed and has been turned into a memorial. Survivors of the siege are on a two-month leave.
Flights are back to normal this morning in Southern California now, but last night hundreds of planes were affected by radio problems. Air traffic controllers found they could monitor planes on radar, but could not talk to them. Flights were either delayed or canceled at several airports in the Los Angeles area, as well as Las Vegas and Oakland.
Beefed-up security last night at the Oakland A's-Texas Rangers game after that brawl on Monday night. The game came off, though, without incident. Frank Francisco was arrested on a charge of aggravated battery after he threw a chair and hit two spectators in the head. Francisco was released on $15,000 bail.
All right, we're going to turn things back over to Bill Hemmer now. Hey -- Bill.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi, thanks.
Forecaster Rick Nabb is tracking Ivan's potential pathway to destruction. He is my guest yet again this morning in Miami at the National Hurricane Center.
And, Rick, we talked about 24 hours ago. Your projected path at this hour is what?
RICK NABB, FORECASTER, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Well, the hurricane is moving to the north-northwest about 12 miles per hour. We expect a gradual turn to the north, and the center should cross the coastline in the warning area somewhere within the next 24 hours.
However, Ivan is a very large hurricane, and conditions are going to be deteriorating at the coastline within the next few hours. Tropical storm force winds are just offshore right now, and it's going to be a long 24 to 36 hours of tropical storm or hurricane force winds in eastern Louisiana all the way through the Florida panhandle.
HEMMER: Rick, based on what you know about the northern coastal waters here in the Gulf of Mexico, whether or not they're warm or cool, will this storm strengthen or weaken before it makes landfall?
NABB: Actually, we don't really anticipate too many significant changes in the intensity between now and the time the center crosses the coastline. Intense hurricanes like this can fluctuate in their intensity, but we expect at least a major hurricane, a category 3, when the center crosses the coast.
HEMMER: It is moving faster, 12 miles an hour, than it was, oh, 12 hours ago, about 9 miles per hour. What does that mean, Rick?
NABB: It doesn't mean a whole lot. That change in speed isn't truly significant in terms of what the impact of the storm are going to be on the coastline.
And, in fact, after the storm makes landfall, we want to urge people to remember that the storm is expected to slow down. It could actually stall or move erratically over the Appalachian states over the weekend. So, it's a very high risk of a flash-flooding event and heavy rainfall totals over the southeastern U.S. And people should be careful when they get on the roads after this makes landfall.
HEMMER: Rick, thanks. Rick Nabb at the National Hurricane Center.
Back here now in Mobile, Alabama, the police chief, Sam Cochran, has seen storms like these for about 30 years. He's my guest now live in Mobile.
Chief, good morning.
CHIEF SAM COCHRAN, MOBILE POLICE DEPT.: Good morning. HEMMER: What are you telling people here?
COCHRAN: Well, we're telling them to get out of town, if they can. Certainly if they're in the mandatory evacuation areas, they should have already left. And if they're contemplating leaving, they need to leave and make that decision now, because it's fast- approaching where later today you won't be able to get out of town.
HEMMER: Are they listening to your warning?
COCHRAN: Well, it's hard to tell. We know that several thousand have left. We would like to see, you know, several more leave. We need to get them out of these low-lying areas. This is a real serious storm. It's a very dangerous storm. We expect, you know, serious damage, a high storm surge, lots of water, and it's going to be a bad one.
HEMMER: Twenty-five years ago Frederick hit Mobile with a direct hit. Nine years ago Opal was east of here in the Florida panhandle. It did an awful lot of damage. Now you have Charley already and Frances in 2004 in Florida. Put all of that together. Do people heed the warnings based on what they've learned from history?
COCHRAN: Well, I think with the recent damages in Florida, people understand the seriousness of this. And for those that were here in '79 with Frederick, this is every bit of a Frederick and probably worse than a Frederick. So with that in mind, people really need to understand the seriousness and the dangerousness of this storm.
HEMMER: Chief, thanks for your time. Good luck to you in getting the word out, OK?
We want to move further west right now. My colleague, Kathleen Koch, is standing by live in Biloxi, Mississippi, getting ready there.
Kathleen -- good morning.
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Well, this 75-mile stretch of coastline along the Mississippi Gulf Coast is no stranger to hurricanes. Just most recently, back in 1998, hit by Hurricane George that was a devastating category 2 that caused $2.3 billion in damages.
But, you know, despite that, they are not gambling on this hurricane, because Ivan looks obviously much more dangerous.
The state Gaming Commission ordered all 12 casinos up and down the coastline closed at noon yesterday, and late into the night workers in those casinos were busy boxing up and carrying out the chips, the money-changing machines, anything they could. What they couldn't carry out by hand they elevated up on cement blocks.
Now, this entire area, all of the low-lying areas of these three coastal counties are under a mandatory evacuation order. And they're really telling people don't even -- there are a few shelters open. But they're telling people don't even try to stay. They want people in this area to go as far north into Mississippi as possible.
But that's no easy feat, because at this point those routes have been very jammed up the last day or so. The one-hour drive to the nearest town north of here, Hattiesburg, Mississippi, that has any hotels, that drive took four hours yesterday.
But people simply don't want to stay in areas like Biloxi, where we are right now. It's a very narrow peninsula. Some 55,000 people normally live here. But when those waters come up, they could come up very hard and very fast -- Bill.
Back to you.
HEMMER: All right, Kathleen, thanks. Kathleen Koch in Biloxi, Mississippi, thank you for that.
Back here in Mobile, here's the headline, the "Mobile Register" this morning: "Bracing for Ivan." Below the headline: "Direct Hit Looms From Powerful Hurricane."
And now we wait hours away now for Ivan to make landfall here.
(WEATHER BREAK)
HEMMER: I want to get back to Heidi again now in New York with more there -- Heidi.
COLLINS: OK, Bill, thanks so much.
Still to come now, want some hot tunes to go with your hot rod? Well, "The Future is Now" when it comes for music for road trips. Instead of Hi-Fi, we're going Wi-Fi. We'll explain what it means.
Also, it won't be long before you see scenes like this, right? Well, who gets the worst winter this year? We'll ask the folks at the "Old Farmers Almanac."
And how did the president turn a potential campaign liability into a strength? Reframing the issues ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: President Bush isn't letting the controversy about his military service get in the way of his campaigning. In fact, he told an audience of National Guard members in Las Vegas yesterday he was proud to be one of them, but steered clear of questions about his own record, focusing instead on Iraq and his Democratic opponent.
CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein now with the "L.A. Times" is joining us from Washington this morning to talk more about the Bush strategy.
Nice to see you, Ron. Thanks for being here.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: I want to start with the National Guard. As we said, Bush spoke before the group yesterday just as there are more questions now swirling about these CBS documents and issues that these experts are saying we really can't verify the documents themselves, maybe only the signature on that document. Is this now a problem for CBS or for President Bush?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think the documents themselves and the specifics of the CBS report, clearly CBS is on the defensive about that. And probably because of those questions, it's clouded or diminished the impact of the entire issue on President Bush. But I think it's too simple to say that CBS' problems essentially end the issue in the political campaign, because as you know, there are other fronts in this controversy that have really nothing to do with what CBS is talking about, how President Bush was treated in Texas.
There is now a group, Texans for Truth, kind of a liberal equivalent of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, that is raising money to run ads raising questions about President Bush's service or whether he fulfilled his service in Alabama in 1972.
And also the Democrat Party, the DNC and many Democratic officials, are pushing the argument more than earlier that how President Bush got into the Guard in the first place reflects on him being -- quote -- "a fortunate son," someone who has not lived a life experience common to most Americans; and thus, isn't sympathetic or understanding of them.
So, it's likely to go on as a headache for President Bush. Whatever happens to CBS, whether it becomes more than that, I don't think we know yet.
COLLINS: All right. Well, let's go ahead and listen now just for a moment. We see the president there. Let's listen to a little piece of what he talked about yesterday before this group.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So our mission in Afghanistan and Iraq is clear. We'll help new leaders to train their armies, move toward elections, and get on the path of stability and democracy as quickly as possible. And then our troops will return home with the honor they deserve.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Ron, you say that he is actually reframing the Iraq debate. What exactly do you mean by that?
BROWNSTEIN: Heidi, this is something really important going on in the presidential race. We've seen this over the last few weeks. It reached a crescendo at his acceptance speech in New York.
In essence, President Bush is arguing that the long-run key to reducing the risk of terror is to democratize the Middle East. And that the key to that, the first step in that, what he has described as a generation-long process, is to create a stable democracy in Iraq that would exert and influence and become an example for the rest of the region.
And if you look at what's happening in the polls, as President Bush has been making that argument and as, to some extent, the press has been covering the violence in Iraq somewhat less, support for the war is edging up. It's an ominous trend, I think, for John Kerry.
In your polls, CBS, ABC, "The Washington Post," "Newsweek," really whatever poll you want to look at, we're seeing now a slight narrow majority of Americans saying the war has been worth the cost. It was the right thing to do. A dramatic decline in the CNN poll in the percentage of people who said it was a mistake to go to Iraq. And I think all of this reflects to some extent President Bush's success at reframing the rationale for the war.
COLLINS: Maybe it's starting to make sense a little bit.
Let's listen to what John Kerry said shortly after the speech there in front of the National Guard. Listen here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The president stood up and talked to the National Guard and just glosses over Iraq as if everything is just fine. But you know and I know and Americans know and the world knows, because all you have to do is see it on the evening news or read the newspapers, that the situation in Iraq is worse, not better.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Well, certainly according to your comments just moments ago, you think that argument is ineffective.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think they're talking almost on different plains. What's striking, Heidi, is that even as support for the decision is going up, you look in the polls, people are not necessarily saying that it is going better. Fifty-four percent in that ABC poll said we are bogged down.
What's changed is that people seem more willing to bear the cost, because President Bush is making an argument that the cost is for a worthwhile cause: the long-term security of the U.S. by moving democracy forward in Iraq.
Ultimately, I think John Kerry has to challenge him on that front. Simply arguing that it isn't going well may not be enough if he doesn't challenge more effectively the fundamental rationale, which is making Americans more willing to bear that cost.
COLLINS: All right, Ron Brownstein, always nice to see you, from the "L.A. Times." Appreciate it this morning.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you. COLLINS: All right, Bill, back to you now.
HEMMER: And, Heidi, as you and Ron were talking, the first raindrops are starting to come down here in Mobile, Alabama. Yesterday, there were predictions here that say some areas of the Gulf Coast could get as much as 20 inches of rain from this storm. Ivan is bearing down on the Gulf, and when it hits, what will we be looking now in terms of historic losses? This area knows that all too well an the lessons are still here.
Andy is "Minding Your Business" on that very topic. Back in a moment here live in Mobile on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Hurricane Ivan could mean dark days for some farmers. And Andy Serwer is here "Minding Your Business" on that.
There are a whole lot of crops that are really going to be hurting.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes. And all kinds of economic fallout. Let's run through things very quickly.
We've talked about Hurricane Charley. We know that $7 billion. Frances probably half as much. You've got $10 billion there. Ivan unknown. Estimates could be as much as $10 billion. Obviously, the oil and gas business in the Gulf already impacted. The fishing business in Florida, millions of dollars lost there. Fishermen are just sitting at home.
And you mentioned farming. This is a big problem in Alabama and Mississippi, particularly the cotton and peanut crops, Heidi, because they have still not been harvested. Rain could be extremely devastating for both of those crops. So we'll be watching that.
I spoke to some insurance executives, and they said that overall the insurance industry is equipped to handle this. There were a lot of reforms after Hurricane Andrew in Florida in 1992. That was a $20 billion event. Something called reinsurance, which means insurance companies spreading the risk around. That really helped a lot.
Losses from hurricanes, though, you guys, is going to continue to go up, and it's not just because of inflation. The real reason why losses from hurricanes is going to go up is because more people are living on the coasts, and the coasts are more built out. In other words, 100 years ago in Florida, there was really nothing but trees, even 75 years ago.
COLLINS: Right.
SERWER: So, that's why these losses are going to continue to go up as these storms come in over the years.
COLLINS: Well, unbelievable. Hopefully it won't be as bad as a lot of people are talking about for sure. SERWER: That's right.
COLLINS: Andy, thanks so much for that.
SERWER: You're welcome.
COLLINS: Jack now and the "Question of the Day."
CAFFERTY: All right, Heidi, thank you.
Dan Rather and "The CBS Evening News" put this report on the air here a few days ago that President Bush got special treatment while he was in the Guard. And they used some documents to back up their story.
Well, now "The Washington Post" this morning has a story, saying that a couple of these document experts they talked to cautioned CBS that there were significant red flags concerning the authenticity of these documents that were used. One of the experts, Marcel Matley (ph), said he was very clear with CBS that he could not authenticate them without seeing the originals. The documents apparently that were used were copies.
And another expert, Emily Will (ph), says she warned CBS that -- quote -- "all the questions I was asking them on Tuesday night were going to be asked by hundreds of other document experts on Thursday morning if they went ahead and ran that story."
So the issue in question is whether or not certain characteristics on these documents could have been produced on a Vietnam-era typewriter? Or whether, in fact, they were produced on a computer using technology that may not have existed when these documents purportedly were written? If you can follow.
Here's the question: Do you believe the CBS report about President Bush's National Guard service? And you can e-mail us at AM@CNN.com.
One of the things you can believe is that President Bush has got to be delighted that the issue has become the credibility of CBS News as opposed to whether or not his Guard service was an honorable endeavor.
Anyway, that's the issue.
SERWER: And so far, CBS is not saying where they got the documents from, which is their prerogative, of course.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
COLLINS: Yes.
CAFFERTY: And they're also saying that they had other document experts that verified the authenticity.
SERWER: Right. CAFFERTY: But so far, they're refusing to identify who they are.
SERWER: That's right. We'll see if they can have that and keep that stance right?
CAFFERTY: Yes.
COLLINS: We certainly will. All right, thanks so much for that, Jack.
Still ahead, though, this morning, we'll go back to Bill in Alabama.
Plus, today's edition of "90-Second Pop." Simon Cowell is best- known as the tough judge on "American Idol." But Cowell himself may end up in front of an even tougher judge.
Plus, Jessica Simpson dukes it out for a big movie role and comes out a winner. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: In a moment here, we're watching and waiting as Hurricane Ivan gets ready, looming off the Gulf Coast. And already, the winds are directly out of the east, giving us another strong indication that the storm is headed here. When it hits, the results could be catastrophic. The latest when we continue in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
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Aired September 15, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Time is running out for the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Ivan is now closing in and looking every bit the giant they predicted.
And crawling from New Orleans, evacuating a major U.S. city and doing it at a snail's pace.
And don't look now, but there is yet another one out there. Tropical Storm Jeanne is gaining strength and already threatening land on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING. Here's Bill Hemmer.
HEMMER: Good morning. It is calm now, but a powerful hurricane is now rumbling this way. And good morning, everyone. From Mobile, Alabama, I'm Bill Hemmer.
Ivan is heading for the coast. Where exactly it will hit is still unknown. And that's what we are all waiting on today.
A hurricane warning in effect for a 300-mile stretch of the Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Apalachicola, Florida, in the east. The mayor of New Orleans is ordering and urging its city's half million residents to get out of town. Thousands have been heeding that warning in bumper-to-bumper traffic going north and going west.
Right now, Ivan is about 200 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving at about 12 miles an hour, which is a bit faster than this time yesterday evening, last night, when we went to sleep here in Mobile.
Ivan is still a category 4 hurricane with winds nearing 140 miles an hour. Hurricane-force winds can be felt more than 100 miles away from the eye of that storm, and expected to make landfall early tomorrow morning.
Much more as we go throughout the morning here. I'll be live in Mobile. But also my colleague, Heidi Collins, is back in New York City.
And, Heidi, good morning to you as well.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Bill.
Other stories that we are following today. Will the renewed debate over President Bush's military service affect his support among voters? We're looking at that with CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein.
Also this hour, before there were all of those gigantic weather computers predicting hurricanes, it was a matter for the old "Farmer's Almanac." Remember that? We'll talk to the editor of the almanac a little later about their forecast this year.
Have you ever read the almanac?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, yes. It's my bible.
COLLINS: Is it really?
CAFFERTY: Yes. That and Chad Myers are the things that I plan my live on.
COLLINS: There you go.
CAFFERTY: Dan Rather and the "CBS Evening News" remain very much on the defensive over questions around the authenticity of the documents that were used to compile this report about President Bush's service in the National Guard. We will take a closer look at that in a few minutes.
COLLINS: All right, very good. Thanks, Jack.
To the news now this morning. First off, we take you to Iraq, where three decapitated bodies have been found there this morning. Military sources say the corpses were discovered in a town some 45 miles northeast of Baghdad. The victims have been identified as Iraqi civilians.
And a Turkish man held hostage for 50 days is free this morning. The man arrived at the Turkish embassy in Baghdad just hours ago.
The first day of class is now under way in Beslan, Russia some two weeks after the terrorist standoff that left more than 330 hostages dead. Almost all schools in the city reopened this morning. The building where the siege was held remains closed and has been turned into a memorial. Survivors of the siege are on a two-month leave.
Flights are back to normal this morning in Southern California now, but last night hundreds of planes were affected by radio problems. Air traffic controllers found they could monitor planes on radar, but could not talk to them. Flights were either delayed or canceled at several airports in the Los Angeles area, as well as Las Vegas and Oakland.
Beefed-up security last night at the Oakland A's-Texas Rangers game after that brawl on Monday night. The game came off, though, without incident. Frank Francisco was arrested on a charge of aggravated battery after he threw a chair and hit two spectators in the head. Francisco was released on $15,000 bail.
All right, we're going to turn things back over to Bill Hemmer now. Hey -- Bill.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi, thanks.
Forecaster Rick Nabb is tracking Ivan's potential pathway to destruction. He is my guest yet again this morning in Miami at the National Hurricane Center.
And, Rick, we talked about 24 hours ago. Your projected path at this hour is what?
RICK NABB, FORECASTER, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Well, the hurricane is moving to the north-northwest about 12 miles per hour. We expect a gradual turn to the north, and the center should cross the coastline in the warning area somewhere within the next 24 hours.
However, Ivan is a very large hurricane, and conditions are going to be deteriorating at the coastline within the next few hours. Tropical storm force winds are just offshore right now, and it's going to be a long 24 to 36 hours of tropical storm or hurricane force winds in eastern Louisiana all the way through the Florida panhandle.
HEMMER: Rick, based on what you know about the northern coastal waters here in the Gulf of Mexico, whether or not they're warm or cool, will this storm strengthen or weaken before it makes landfall?
NABB: Actually, we don't really anticipate too many significant changes in the intensity between now and the time the center crosses the coastline. Intense hurricanes like this can fluctuate in their intensity, but we expect at least a major hurricane, a category 3, when the center crosses the coast.
HEMMER: It is moving faster, 12 miles an hour, than it was, oh, 12 hours ago, about 9 miles per hour. What does that mean, Rick?
NABB: It doesn't mean a whole lot. That change in speed isn't truly significant in terms of what the impact of the storm are going to be on the coastline.
And, in fact, after the storm makes landfall, we want to urge people to remember that the storm is expected to slow down. It could actually stall or move erratically over the Appalachian states over the weekend. So, it's a very high risk of a flash-flooding event and heavy rainfall totals over the southeastern U.S. And people should be careful when they get on the roads after this makes landfall.
HEMMER: Rick, thanks. Rick Nabb at the National Hurricane Center.
Back here now in Mobile, Alabama, the police chief, Sam Cochran, has seen storms like these for about 30 years. He's my guest now live in Mobile.
Chief, good morning.
CHIEF SAM COCHRAN, MOBILE POLICE DEPT.: Good morning. HEMMER: What are you telling people here?
COCHRAN: Well, we're telling them to get out of town, if they can. Certainly if they're in the mandatory evacuation areas, they should have already left. And if they're contemplating leaving, they need to leave and make that decision now, because it's fast- approaching where later today you won't be able to get out of town.
HEMMER: Are they listening to your warning?
COCHRAN: Well, it's hard to tell. We know that several thousand have left. We would like to see, you know, several more leave. We need to get them out of these low-lying areas. This is a real serious storm. It's a very dangerous storm. We expect, you know, serious damage, a high storm surge, lots of water, and it's going to be a bad one.
HEMMER: Twenty-five years ago Frederick hit Mobile with a direct hit. Nine years ago Opal was east of here in the Florida panhandle. It did an awful lot of damage. Now you have Charley already and Frances in 2004 in Florida. Put all of that together. Do people heed the warnings based on what they've learned from history?
COCHRAN: Well, I think with the recent damages in Florida, people understand the seriousness of this. And for those that were here in '79 with Frederick, this is every bit of a Frederick and probably worse than a Frederick. So with that in mind, people really need to understand the seriousness and the dangerousness of this storm.
HEMMER: Chief, thanks for your time. Good luck to you in getting the word out, OK?
We want to move further west right now. My colleague, Kathleen Koch, is standing by live in Biloxi, Mississippi, getting ready there.
Kathleen -- good morning.
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Well, this 75-mile stretch of coastline along the Mississippi Gulf Coast is no stranger to hurricanes. Just most recently, back in 1998, hit by Hurricane George that was a devastating category 2 that caused $2.3 billion in damages.
But, you know, despite that, they are not gambling on this hurricane, because Ivan looks obviously much more dangerous.
The state Gaming Commission ordered all 12 casinos up and down the coastline closed at noon yesterday, and late into the night workers in those casinos were busy boxing up and carrying out the chips, the money-changing machines, anything they could. What they couldn't carry out by hand they elevated up on cement blocks.
Now, this entire area, all of the low-lying areas of these three coastal counties are under a mandatory evacuation order. And they're really telling people don't even -- there are a few shelters open. But they're telling people don't even try to stay. They want people in this area to go as far north into Mississippi as possible.
But that's no easy feat, because at this point those routes have been very jammed up the last day or so. The one-hour drive to the nearest town north of here, Hattiesburg, Mississippi, that has any hotels, that drive took four hours yesterday.
But people simply don't want to stay in areas like Biloxi, where we are right now. It's a very narrow peninsula. Some 55,000 people normally live here. But when those waters come up, they could come up very hard and very fast -- Bill.
Back to you.
HEMMER: All right, Kathleen, thanks. Kathleen Koch in Biloxi, Mississippi, thank you for that.
Back here in Mobile, here's the headline, the "Mobile Register" this morning: "Bracing for Ivan." Below the headline: "Direct Hit Looms From Powerful Hurricane."
And now we wait hours away now for Ivan to make landfall here.
(WEATHER BREAK)
HEMMER: I want to get back to Heidi again now in New York with more there -- Heidi.
COLLINS: OK, Bill, thanks so much.
Still to come now, want some hot tunes to go with your hot rod? Well, "The Future is Now" when it comes for music for road trips. Instead of Hi-Fi, we're going Wi-Fi. We'll explain what it means.
Also, it won't be long before you see scenes like this, right? Well, who gets the worst winter this year? We'll ask the folks at the "Old Farmers Almanac."
And how did the president turn a potential campaign liability into a strength? Reframing the issues ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: President Bush isn't letting the controversy about his military service get in the way of his campaigning. In fact, he told an audience of National Guard members in Las Vegas yesterday he was proud to be one of them, but steered clear of questions about his own record, focusing instead on Iraq and his Democratic opponent.
CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein now with the "L.A. Times" is joining us from Washington this morning to talk more about the Bush strategy.
Nice to see you, Ron. Thanks for being here.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: I want to start with the National Guard. As we said, Bush spoke before the group yesterday just as there are more questions now swirling about these CBS documents and issues that these experts are saying we really can't verify the documents themselves, maybe only the signature on that document. Is this now a problem for CBS or for President Bush?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think the documents themselves and the specifics of the CBS report, clearly CBS is on the defensive about that. And probably because of those questions, it's clouded or diminished the impact of the entire issue on President Bush. But I think it's too simple to say that CBS' problems essentially end the issue in the political campaign, because as you know, there are other fronts in this controversy that have really nothing to do with what CBS is talking about, how President Bush was treated in Texas.
There is now a group, Texans for Truth, kind of a liberal equivalent of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, that is raising money to run ads raising questions about President Bush's service or whether he fulfilled his service in Alabama in 1972.
And also the Democrat Party, the DNC and many Democratic officials, are pushing the argument more than earlier that how President Bush got into the Guard in the first place reflects on him being -- quote -- "a fortunate son," someone who has not lived a life experience common to most Americans; and thus, isn't sympathetic or understanding of them.
So, it's likely to go on as a headache for President Bush. Whatever happens to CBS, whether it becomes more than that, I don't think we know yet.
COLLINS: All right. Well, let's go ahead and listen now just for a moment. We see the president there. Let's listen to a little piece of what he talked about yesterday before this group.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So our mission in Afghanistan and Iraq is clear. We'll help new leaders to train their armies, move toward elections, and get on the path of stability and democracy as quickly as possible. And then our troops will return home with the honor they deserve.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Ron, you say that he is actually reframing the Iraq debate. What exactly do you mean by that?
BROWNSTEIN: Heidi, this is something really important going on in the presidential race. We've seen this over the last few weeks. It reached a crescendo at his acceptance speech in New York.
In essence, President Bush is arguing that the long-run key to reducing the risk of terror is to democratize the Middle East. And that the key to that, the first step in that, what he has described as a generation-long process, is to create a stable democracy in Iraq that would exert and influence and become an example for the rest of the region.
And if you look at what's happening in the polls, as President Bush has been making that argument and as, to some extent, the press has been covering the violence in Iraq somewhat less, support for the war is edging up. It's an ominous trend, I think, for John Kerry.
In your polls, CBS, ABC, "The Washington Post," "Newsweek," really whatever poll you want to look at, we're seeing now a slight narrow majority of Americans saying the war has been worth the cost. It was the right thing to do. A dramatic decline in the CNN poll in the percentage of people who said it was a mistake to go to Iraq. And I think all of this reflects to some extent President Bush's success at reframing the rationale for the war.
COLLINS: Maybe it's starting to make sense a little bit.
Let's listen to what John Kerry said shortly after the speech there in front of the National Guard. Listen here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The president stood up and talked to the National Guard and just glosses over Iraq as if everything is just fine. But you know and I know and Americans know and the world knows, because all you have to do is see it on the evening news or read the newspapers, that the situation in Iraq is worse, not better.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Well, certainly according to your comments just moments ago, you think that argument is ineffective.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think they're talking almost on different plains. What's striking, Heidi, is that even as support for the decision is going up, you look in the polls, people are not necessarily saying that it is going better. Fifty-four percent in that ABC poll said we are bogged down.
What's changed is that people seem more willing to bear the cost, because President Bush is making an argument that the cost is for a worthwhile cause: the long-term security of the U.S. by moving democracy forward in Iraq.
Ultimately, I think John Kerry has to challenge him on that front. Simply arguing that it isn't going well may not be enough if he doesn't challenge more effectively the fundamental rationale, which is making Americans more willing to bear that cost.
COLLINS: All right, Ron Brownstein, always nice to see you, from the "L.A. Times." Appreciate it this morning.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you. COLLINS: All right, Bill, back to you now.
HEMMER: And, Heidi, as you and Ron were talking, the first raindrops are starting to come down here in Mobile, Alabama. Yesterday, there were predictions here that say some areas of the Gulf Coast could get as much as 20 inches of rain from this storm. Ivan is bearing down on the Gulf, and when it hits, what will we be looking now in terms of historic losses? This area knows that all too well an the lessons are still here.
Andy is "Minding Your Business" on that very topic. Back in a moment here live in Mobile on this AMERICAN MORNING.
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COLLINS: Hurricane Ivan could mean dark days for some farmers. And Andy Serwer is here "Minding Your Business" on that.
There are a whole lot of crops that are really going to be hurting.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes. And all kinds of economic fallout. Let's run through things very quickly.
We've talked about Hurricane Charley. We know that $7 billion. Frances probably half as much. You've got $10 billion there. Ivan unknown. Estimates could be as much as $10 billion. Obviously, the oil and gas business in the Gulf already impacted. The fishing business in Florida, millions of dollars lost there. Fishermen are just sitting at home.
And you mentioned farming. This is a big problem in Alabama and Mississippi, particularly the cotton and peanut crops, Heidi, because they have still not been harvested. Rain could be extremely devastating for both of those crops. So we'll be watching that.
I spoke to some insurance executives, and they said that overall the insurance industry is equipped to handle this. There were a lot of reforms after Hurricane Andrew in Florida in 1992. That was a $20 billion event. Something called reinsurance, which means insurance companies spreading the risk around. That really helped a lot.
Losses from hurricanes, though, you guys, is going to continue to go up, and it's not just because of inflation. The real reason why losses from hurricanes is going to go up is because more people are living on the coasts, and the coasts are more built out. In other words, 100 years ago in Florida, there was really nothing but trees, even 75 years ago.
COLLINS: Right.
SERWER: So, that's why these losses are going to continue to go up as these storms come in over the years.
COLLINS: Well, unbelievable. Hopefully it won't be as bad as a lot of people are talking about for sure. SERWER: That's right.
COLLINS: Andy, thanks so much for that.
SERWER: You're welcome.
COLLINS: Jack now and the "Question of the Day."
CAFFERTY: All right, Heidi, thank you.
Dan Rather and "The CBS Evening News" put this report on the air here a few days ago that President Bush got special treatment while he was in the Guard. And they used some documents to back up their story.
Well, now "The Washington Post" this morning has a story, saying that a couple of these document experts they talked to cautioned CBS that there were significant red flags concerning the authenticity of these documents that were used. One of the experts, Marcel Matley (ph), said he was very clear with CBS that he could not authenticate them without seeing the originals. The documents apparently that were used were copies.
And another expert, Emily Will (ph), says she warned CBS that -- quote -- "all the questions I was asking them on Tuesday night were going to be asked by hundreds of other document experts on Thursday morning if they went ahead and ran that story."
So the issue in question is whether or not certain characteristics on these documents could have been produced on a Vietnam-era typewriter? Or whether, in fact, they were produced on a computer using technology that may not have existed when these documents purportedly were written? If you can follow.
Here's the question: Do you believe the CBS report about President Bush's National Guard service? And you can e-mail us at AM@CNN.com.
One of the things you can believe is that President Bush has got to be delighted that the issue has become the credibility of CBS News as opposed to whether or not his Guard service was an honorable endeavor.
Anyway, that's the issue.
SERWER: And so far, CBS is not saying where they got the documents from, which is their prerogative, of course.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
COLLINS: Yes.
CAFFERTY: And they're also saying that they had other document experts that verified the authenticity.
SERWER: Right. CAFFERTY: But so far, they're refusing to identify who they are.
SERWER: That's right. We'll see if they can have that and keep that stance right?
CAFFERTY: Yes.
COLLINS: We certainly will. All right, thanks so much for that, Jack.
Still ahead, though, this morning, we'll go back to Bill in Alabama.
Plus, today's edition of "90-Second Pop." Simon Cowell is best- known as the tough judge on "American Idol." But Cowell himself may end up in front of an even tougher judge.
Plus, Jessica Simpson dukes it out for a big movie role and comes out a winner. Stay with us.
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HEMMER: In a moment here, we're watching and waiting as Hurricane Ivan gets ready, looming off the Gulf Coast. And already, the winds are directly out of the east, giving us another strong indication that the storm is headed here. When it hits, the results could be catastrophic. The latest when we continue in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
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