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American Morning
Gulf Coast Residents Running Out of Time Before Ivan Hits
Aired September 15, 2004 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning.
Gulf Coast residents running out of time before Ivan now hits. A giant hurricane driving toward land at this hour. And driving millions of people from their homes in what could be a furious encounter. We're tracking Ivan on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING.
Here's Bill Hemmer.
HEMMER: And good morning.
Ivan heading for the coast. Where exactly it will hit is still unknown at this hour and that's why we are here live this morning in Mobile, Alabama.
I'm Bill Hemmer and good morning to our special coverage here of the hurricane known as Ivan, a strong storm, too. A hurricane warning in effect for a 300-mile stretch of the Gulf Coast, from Grand Island, Louisiana eastward to Apalachicola in the Florida Panhandle.
The mayor of New Orleans urging his city's half million residents to get out of town and that low lying area. Thousands have been doing just that, leaving the city and literally bumper to bumper traffic.
At the moment, Ivan about 180 miles away from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Ivan still a strong category four hurricane, winds about 140 miles an hour, and moving fast, too, about 12 miles an hour.
Hurricane force winds now can be felt more than 100 miles away from the eye of that storm, just a monster, a huge storm right now in the Gulf. Expected to make landfall early on Thursday morning, which essentially goes overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
To date, Ivan has affected 11 different countries in its path, hop scotching across the Caribbean. The United States right now the twelfth country in line for Ivan.
We'll be here throughout the morning. A lot more to talk about in a moment here and we shall.
But first, back to Heidi Collins -- and good morning there in New York, Heidi.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, it was amazing looking at that video of all the cars lined up to get out of there. I hope everybody is safely out.
HEMMER: So true.
H. COLLINS: Definitely.
All right, Bill, thanks so much.
Also this morning, we'll tell you about a bipartisan plan in the Senate to adopt some of the reforms suggested by the 9/11 Commission. We're going to have a few changes there.
Also, we're going to look at hurricane forecasting old school. The editor of the "Old Farmer's Almanac" is with us. He's going to explain some of the publication's traditional methods for predicting the weather and give us the outlook for this year. Pretty interesting. It's going to be a cold winter, they say.
Jack Cafferty now -- good morning.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Heidi.
Coming up in the "Cafferty File" in a little while, the most immature person that Sandra Bullock knows besides herself.
And Barbara Walters talks about the role of her bladder in her success as a television personality. Barbara putting it right out there.
H. COLLINS: You know...
CAFFERTY: We'll look at all her medical records in about 45 minutes.
H. COLLINS: Cool! I have so been waiting for that, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
H. COLLINS: Thank you very much.
CAFFERTY: You're welcome.
H. COLLINS: We want to check on the stories now in the news this morning.
New reports this hour concerning three Americans accused of running a private jail in Afghanistan. According to wire reports, the men have been found guilty of abusing prisoners in Kabul. They have been sentenced to up to 10 years in prison.
Here in the United States, the presidential candidates are courting Hispanic voters now. President Bush making multiple stops in Washington, D.C. This afternoon, he'll speak at the Hispanic Heritage Month concert. And rival John Kerry will address the Congressional Hispanic Caucus today. Right now, Kerry is in Michigan, where, within the hour, he will make remarks at the Detroit Economic Club. The countdown now under way for thousands of hotel employees on both coasts threatening to strike. Workers in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington gave their union leaders the green light to call a walkout. They're hoping it will pressure employers into signing new work contracts. Labor contracts covering workers in D.C. expire today.
Pop superstar Madonna is heading to Israel. The Material Girl will take part in a Kabbalah conference. She'll join 2,000 participants from 22 countries in celebrating the start of the Jewish new year, Rosh Hashanah, tonight at sunset.
Now back to Bill, the biggest Madonna fan that I know, in Mobile -- hey, Bill.
HEMMER: You got it. The Material Boy.
Thank you, Heidi, again here.
Elevations are really so low up and down the Gulf Coast. Some major concern right now for the storm surge. Sometimes you have elevations of five feet, which is really nothing right now for a storm of this size.
For more on Ivan, we want to go east now of our location.
Rick Sanchez is live in Panama City Beach, Florida, where they're getting ready, as well -- Rick, good morning.
How are things so far?
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Bill.
You make a perfect point when you talk about elevation. This particular area, most people, when they think of the Florida coastline, they think of a long beach. Actually, there's lots of inlets, lots of bays. And those are the areas that officials are particularly concerned about. And that's why they have called for an evacuation. And they're expecting something like 500,000 people to be evacuated from this area.
For the most part, people in this area that we have been talking to have been heeding the call for many reasons, in fact. This has been an impressive hurricane season for the people of Florida, first through Charley, then through Frances. Both of those hurricanes have pretty much reinforced a fear, if we could use that word, in a lot of people to be a little bit more careful this time.
They say even if it doesn't come this way, they're going to make sure they're ready.
There's another hurricane, though, that some people we talked to say prepared them, and that's Andrew. Here's some of the people we talked to yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can definitely see the houses that they didn't protect and that they did protect. And the windows are out on one and there's boards up on the other and those windows will still be there.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's been blowing since yesterday, a couple of days now. So a lot of people are prepared, I personally think a lot more prepared than we were when we went through hurricane Andrew.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SANCHEZ: We have just been told that two more shelters are going to be opening up this morning. Of course, that means that schools are closed, because it's often schools that are used as shelters. And just to put in perspective the kind of hurricane season it's been here in Florida so far, still because of Charley there are pockets in the State of Florida without electricity; still because of Frances in the area around Jacksonville, they're still dealing with flooding.
Bill -- back to you.
HEMMER: Rick, I don't know what kind of a welcome this is as we get ready for a hurricane. Nonetheless, though, welcome, and good morning.
Good to have you here at CNN.
SANCHEZ: Thanks.
It's nice to be here.
Thanks so much.
HEMMER: You've got it.
Rick Sanchez, Panama City Beach.
We'll talk many times in the coming days here regarding Ivan.
Opal gets a lot of attention here, a storm with a huge storm surge back in 1995, only nine short years ago. Frederick, 25 years ago almost to the day, wiped out so many people here in the City of Mobile. We'll talk to two of them in a moment.
But first we want to get to Chad Myers yet again, watching the satellite, watching the radar, watching just about everything -- Chad, good morning back there at the CNN Center.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Bill.
And for the folks of New Orleans and Biloxi waiting for the turn. Watching for the hurricane to actually make its slight turn, as forecast by the Hurricane Center. Very hard to find that turn right now. This storm is still headed right here, to the mouth of the Mississippi, now 180 miles south-southeast of that mouth of the Mississippi. Here's the rainfall now. And when you get these rainfall bands over you, if you do, up here across the north, or even across parts of central Florida, you will see wind gusts in excess of hurricane strength later on today. So keep that in mind. I know you're focusing on the eye and where the line is and all that kind of stuff.
Here are the latest numbers. This is the 8:00 advisory numbers -- 26.7, 87.9. Winds are still 140. They had hurricane gusts there. They just flew through it with the hurricane hunter aircraft at 152 miles per hour up there at flight level.
This goes right over you, Bill. Mobile Bay, this is the Hurricane Center forecast, with winds to 140. I know you were with me there with Frances. We didn't get anything near that down there. Our highest gust was 88. You can almost double that for this one.
HEMMER: Indeed, you're right.
Chad, thanks for that.
Back here live in Mobile, Alabama now, Jimmy and Georgia Roussos are hoping that their family survives a lot better this time than they did 25 years ago. Twenty-five years since Frederick. Now we look at Ivan.
Good morning to both of you.
GEORGIA ROUSSOS, RESTAURANT OWNER: Good morning.
JIMMY ROUSSOS, RESTAURANT OWNER: Good morning.
HEMMER: What do you remember most from that hurricane of 1979?
G. ROUSSOS: Other than total devastation, the heat, the bees, my family's business was completely demolished. It was quite an experience for us.
HEMMER: You told me earlier it took you almost two years to rebuild, Jimmy.
J. ROUSSOS: It took us more than two.
HEMMER: Did you ever fully recover from that?
J. ROUSSOS: No, you never really recover from that sort of disaster. The economic loss of being out of work for two years and being out of business for two years is just something you never really recover from.
HEMMER: So there is no check that FEMA can write to help you get back to where you...
J. ROUSSOS: There's no check that I want that'll keep me out of work.
HEMMER: Let's talk about this year now, in 2004. How are you getting ready? What will you do?
G. ROUSSOS: We've boarded up. We've not only boarded up our homes, but we've boarded up at the restaurant. Yesterday my brothers and the kitchen employees took care of food that needed to be put up and stored for what we have to look forward to, which is probably at least two weeks of being out of power.
HEMMER: Knowing that Frances was so strong and Charley was so strong and this area has a history of taking the full brunt of these storms, do people listen?
J. ROUSSOS: Most times people are starting to listen now. The media has done an excellent job of getting the word out and people remember. There's been a lot of -- enough people from Opal and Frederick still here that they're telling everybody and they're starting to listen. I've seen more hurricane preparedness this storm than I have ever seen in my life.
HEMMER: Well, I hope you're right about that, Jimmy.
Thank you. And good luck to you. Georgia, you, as well. The restaurant is Roussos. And I hope this time, 25 years later, it fares a lot much better than 1979.
Good luck to you, all right?
They're staying with their mom just west of here in Mobile, in West Mobile, Alabama.
Much more in a moment here along the Gulf Coast, waiting for Ivan. Just about every 15 minutes we feel a little more rain come down and a little more clouds, again, coming from that eastern direction -- Heidi, back to you now in New York.
H. COLLINS: It's certainly on its way.
All right, Bill, thanks so much for that.
Well, you may know no one does weather quite like the "Old Farmer's Almanac." They've been forecasting it since 1792. The new edition of the "Old Farmer's Almanac," just like the 212 before, has winter weather predictions and a whole lot more.
Editor-in-chief Jud Hale is joining us now.
And you just told me during the break 46 years ago you walked in the door of the "Farmer's Almanac."
JUD HALE, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC": Yes, today.
H. COLLINS: Today? Well, congratulations to you. HALE: Well, thanks, Heidi.
H. COLLINS: We should stay on task here, though, talking about hurricane Ivan. HALE: Right.
H. COLLINS: Let's look a little bit about what the "Almanac" had predicted for Florida, if we could. Here's what we've got. Now, normally you guys are about 80 percent correct. I know that. But this, it shows a little bit different picture here. We've got, on the first through the third, sunny and hot; on the fourth through the seventh, thunderstorms, but then sunny and cool; going on down to the 14th through the 23rd of this month, sunny and very warm.
What happened?
HALE: Accurately predicting hurricanes is in our future.
H. COLLINS: OK.
Obviously a very...
HALE: We do think that...
H. COLLINS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
HALE: We do feel that hurricane activity will increase -- and we were aware of that -- probably over the next eight, 10 years. But we missed it by a little bit. We thought it would be coming a little later. So it is in the 2005 "Almanac" for next year and the...
H. COLLINS: And you said that was because the water temperature is going to get warmer.
HALE: The water temperature that becomes warm north of the equator -- usually it's down the south -- and that runs in cycles. So you have to be accurate on where the cycle is. We were just a little off in terms of hurricanes.
But even if we had known there was going to be an active hurricane, we wouldn't have known it was going to hit land tomorrow morning, which you've just been reporting.
H. COLLINS: Right. Right.
HALE: That's many years away, to be able to do that. But it's wonderful that we can do it, we, human beings, because, you know...
H. COLLINS: Oh, that's right.
HALE: ... the '38 hurricane, for instance, in 1938, came in off the ocean and nobody had any idea that it was coming in.
H. COLLINS: Right.
HALE: And today we can say it's going to hit land tomorrow or it's going to hit...
H. COLLINS: Yes, the National Hurricane Center is working on that, obviously, too. HALE: So that's good. Yes.
H. COLLINS: All right, let's...
HALE: We do better with the winter weather.
H. COLLINS: Let's talk about that, then. In fact, let's go ahead and look at your Web site. I think we were looking at that just a moment ago, in fact.
Winter 2005, it's going to be a cold one.
For who?
HALE: Well, pretty much for everybody east of the Rockies. West of the Rockies, it's going to be warmer, except for the Pacific Northwest. But generally speaking, we're looking for a little bit colder than average east of the Rockies and a little bit more snow than average or both, one or the other or both. And with the exceptions of like Montana and Wyoming, we think, will be fairly mild, which is an odd place for it to be mild, but we think mild and dry.
Northern New England, my area -- I'm from New Hampshire -- probably mild but very snowy. The Appalachians milder, but snowy. Very cold in the deep South relative to average, particularly in February and March. And more snow than usual in generally like, for instance, New Mexico across to northern Texas, Oklahoma...
H. COLLINS: I'm thinking Taos, Aspen. I'm thinking, you know, make the ski reservations now.
HALE: Yes, it's going to be OK. Yes, absolutely.
H. COLLINS: OK.
You heard it here.
You have something like, what is it, 18 million readers?
HALE: Yes, we do.
H. COLLINS: I mean that is just a huge number.
How do you come out with the predictions? What sort of data do you use?
HALE: It's on cycle. You know, we don't use the Willy Worms because the Willy Worm puts on his coat in the fall and we go to press in June.
H. COLLINS: You don't have time.
HALE: Back in 1792 we went to press in like the first week in July. So we've never been able to use nature's signs, even though I believe them. We look at the cycles of the sun and we feel that the sun triggers almost all our climate conditions and changes and all our weather changes, that radiant energy coming from the sun to the earth. Everybody used to think it fluctuated haphazardly. Now, with the advent of computers, we know it fluctuates in certain patterns that can be discerned.
H. COLLINS: Well, that's absolutely fascinating.
It so wonderful talking with you this morning.
HALE: Thanks, Heidi.
H. COLLINS: Jud Hale, editor-in-chief of the "Old Farmer's Almanac."
My grandpa would have loved to have met you.
HALE: Oh, isn't that nice?
H. COLLINS: Thank you so much this morning.
HALE: I'd love to meet him.
H. COLLINS: Yes, OK.
Thanks so much.
Still to come this morning now, people are getting out by the thousands. But what happens to the folks staying behind when Ivan hits? Dr. Gupta tells us how to prepare for a medical crisis and a weather emergency.
Also, the fallout from that stadium brawl in Texas. Somebody gets charged in the latest run-in between fans and players.
And law makers today detail their plan to reorganize the nation's intelligence community. But before they do, they're talking to AMERICAN MORNING. Senator Joe Lieberman straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
H. COLLINS: Later this morning, two Senate leaders will unveil their plan for reforming the nation's intelligence community. The legislation could be the first to come out of the 9/11 Commission report. Maine Republican Susan Collins and Connecticut Democrat Joe Lieberman are behind it.
They are joining us this morning from Capitol Hill.
Thanks so much for being with us to the two of you.
We certainly appreciate it here on AMERICAN MORNING once again.
Senator Lieberman, I wanted to begin with you, indicated. Some news to us this morning, coming out yesterday, actually. We had Porter Goss before the Senate Intelligence Committee, who actually said, you know, this is going to take a while, perhaps more than five years, to actually rebuild the intelligence community.
Your thoughts on that? That's a long time.
SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), CONNECTICUT: Well, I think I know what Porter Goss was talking about. He understands that he's got a job to do and he didn't want the committee that he was appearing for to believe that he thinks everything is great, because he's worked closely, actually worked in the CIA for 10 years of his career.
But a lot of what ails the intelligence community can and must be cured a lot quicker. I think the reforms that Senator Collins and I are going to put before our committee will do just that. We've got a lot of great assets. There's no intelligence service in the world like ours. We can do things that nobody else can do.
But it's not coordinated. There's no quarterback in charge. And that's what our legislation would do.
It may be that some of the things that Porter Goss wants to do, like recruiting experts in language and enough spies, human intelligence sources, that may take some years. But we can make this intelligence community of ours exactly what it should be quickly. And we have to because the threat from al Qaeda and the other terrorists is there right now.
H. COLLINS: All right, Senator Collins, on Monday now, we also heard something from Secretary Colin Powell, talking about how he really didn't think it was that great of an idea for the CIA, the FBI and the Pentagon to serve in that inner circle, if you will, of the NID.
But isn't that exactly what the recommendations from 9/11 Committee called for in order to have all of those agencies talking?
SEN. SUSAN COLLINS, (R-ME), CHAIR GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE: Well, Secretary Powell actually gave a very strong endorsement to the outlines of the proposal that Senator Lieberman and I are presenting today. He endorsed a strong national intelligence director. What he expressed reservations about, and many of our witnesses and we ourselves agree, is the proposal that some of the deputies to this director would also run agencies in either the Department of Defense or the Department of Homeland Security or the CIA.
We agree that that creates a confusing situation and we did not adopt that particular formulation.
H. COLLINS: Yes, as a matter of fact, clearing up some of that confusion might be possible, Senator Lieberman. The 9/11 Commission wanting the national intelligence director to control nearly all intelligence gathering. But your plan talks about the Defense Intelligence Agency, otherwise known as the DIA, in control of the military. Do you think that's going to help?
LIEBERMAN: Yes, it will help. In fact, that's exactly what the 9/11 Commission recommended, that so-called tactical military intelligence stay within the Department of Defense but the national intelligence programs go to the national intelligence director that we would create. This is a revolutionary change.
Today, more than 80 percent of the budget in intelligence goes to the Department of Defense. We're turning that around. I can't talk about the specific numbers because they're classified. But this national intelligence director is going to have the money and control of the money. When you have the control of the money, you can, as the quarterback, you can get the whole team working together in the national interests.
I do want to say that it's been a great pleasure to work with Senator Collins, who is chairman of our committee. And we've done this on a totally bipartisan basis. We've not divided into partisan caucuses or consulted party officials. This is all about national security. And it's what legislating should be all about, particularly in a time of crisis such as we're in today.
And I want to thank Senator Collins for that kind of leadership that she's offered.
H. COLLINS: Great.
Senator Collins, quickly, before we let you go, are you pleased with the progress of the legislation so far?
S. COLLINS: I'm very pleased. We've held eight hearings. We've consulted widely. The bill follows the blueprint set out by the 9/11 Commission. But it also reflects what we've learned at our hearings. As Joe indicated, we have gone forward in a bipartisan way. I think we're making great progress and this bill will be enacted this year.
H. COLLINS: Right. Well, people will be happy to hear that and to look forward to the progress.
Thanks so much to the two of you this morning, Senator Joe Lieberman and Senator Susan Collins.
LIEBERMAN: Thank you, Heidi.
S. COLLINS: Thanks, again.
H. COLLINS: Bill, back now to Mobile.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi.
Twenty-two minutes ago, the latest numbers came out. An absolutely huge storm, a category four. Still winds sustained at 140 miles an hour. If you go back a hundred years, only three category five hurricanes have ever made landfall in the U.S. This storm below that just a bit, but still a very big storm. What could be the big one today is hurricane Ivan, a couple of hundred miles off the Gulf Coast and moving closer to land.
Where will it land?
The latest on that path still to come here live in Mobile in a moment on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
H. COLLINS: Time for Jack now and the Question of the Day.
You're getting lots of responses this morning.
CAFFERTY: Indeed.
Thanks, Heidi.
Those documents that CBS News reported on last Wednesday regarding President Bush's National Guard service, CBS said that the papers came from solid sources and were vetted for authenticity by document experts.
However, the "Washington Post" this morning says two of those experts who looked at the memos before the story aired said that CBS ignored significant red flags about whether they were real.
The question we're asking is do you believe the CBS report about President Bush's National Guard service?
Joy in Iowa writes: "Given the furor over the Swift Boat veteran ads, CBS should have had every expert that they hired, no matter what they decided, in the report. They should have tried harder to get the original documents, as well as more documents from the same time and location."
David in Lovington, New Mexico: "I believe very little that comes from any of the major network newscasters." Except for us, right? "Especially Dan Rather," he says.
Josh in Whibley Island, Washington: "I believe the report as a whole, but I have to admit it's rather apparent that these particular documents were forged and CBS was duped. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Karl Rove had something to do with setting them up to turn this story on CBS' head and effectively end all debate on the issue by putting the spotlight on CBS News."
And Bill writes: "The documents are plainly fake. The only question is whether CBS will hold anyone accountable. The producers should be fired and Dan Rather should apologize."
Am@cnn.com.
H. COLLINS: It's going to be very interesting to see how they handle it now. I expect we'll probably hear something in the next couple of days.
CAFFERTY: Yes, as we pointed out, the president and the White House have to be happy because all of a sudden, instead of debating his National Guard service, we're debating CBS News' authenticity and having discussions about Dan Rather, which takes the spotlight off the president.
H. COLLINS: Yes, we haven't seen that happen before, that's for sure.
All right...
CAFFERTY: It couldn't have worked out better for the pres.
H. COLLINS: Jack Cafferty, thanks so much for that.
Still to come this morning, we'll go back down to Bill now, who is standing by live in Mobile, Alabama, waiting for hurricane Ivan to hit.
Plus, that brawl the other night in Texas about to cross over from the diamond to the courtroom. The latest on that ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired September 15, 2004 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning.
Gulf Coast residents running out of time before Ivan now hits. A giant hurricane driving toward land at this hour. And driving millions of people from their homes in what could be a furious encounter. We're tracking Ivan on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING.
Here's Bill Hemmer.
HEMMER: And good morning.
Ivan heading for the coast. Where exactly it will hit is still unknown at this hour and that's why we are here live this morning in Mobile, Alabama.
I'm Bill Hemmer and good morning to our special coverage here of the hurricane known as Ivan, a strong storm, too. A hurricane warning in effect for a 300-mile stretch of the Gulf Coast, from Grand Island, Louisiana eastward to Apalachicola in the Florida Panhandle.
The mayor of New Orleans urging his city's half million residents to get out of town and that low lying area. Thousands have been doing just that, leaving the city and literally bumper to bumper traffic.
At the moment, Ivan about 180 miles away from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Ivan still a strong category four hurricane, winds about 140 miles an hour, and moving fast, too, about 12 miles an hour.
Hurricane force winds now can be felt more than 100 miles away from the eye of that storm, just a monster, a huge storm right now in the Gulf. Expected to make landfall early on Thursday morning, which essentially goes overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
To date, Ivan has affected 11 different countries in its path, hop scotching across the Caribbean. The United States right now the twelfth country in line for Ivan.
We'll be here throughout the morning. A lot more to talk about in a moment here and we shall.
But first, back to Heidi Collins -- and good morning there in New York, Heidi.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, it was amazing looking at that video of all the cars lined up to get out of there. I hope everybody is safely out.
HEMMER: So true.
H. COLLINS: Definitely.
All right, Bill, thanks so much.
Also this morning, we'll tell you about a bipartisan plan in the Senate to adopt some of the reforms suggested by the 9/11 Commission. We're going to have a few changes there.
Also, we're going to look at hurricane forecasting old school. The editor of the "Old Farmer's Almanac" is with us. He's going to explain some of the publication's traditional methods for predicting the weather and give us the outlook for this year. Pretty interesting. It's going to be a cold winter, they say.
Jack Cafferty now -- good morning.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Heidi.
Coming up in the "Cafferty File" in a little while, the most immature person that Sandra Bullock knows besides herself.
And Barbara Walters talks about the role of her bladder in her success as a television personality. Barbara putting it right out there.
H. COLLINS: You know...
CAFFERTY: We'll look at all her medical records in about 45 minutes.
H. COLLINS: Cool! I have so been waiting for that, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
H. COLLINS: Thank you very much.
CAFFERTY: You're welcome.
H. COLLINS: We want to check on the stories now in the news this morning.
New reports this hour concerning three Americans accused of running a private jail in Afghanistan. According to wire reports, the men have been found guilty of abusing prisoners in Kabul. They have been sentenced to up to 10 years in prison.
Here in the United States, the presidential candidates are courting Hispanic voters now. President Bush making multiple stops in Washington, D.C. This afternoon, he'll speak at the Hispanic Heritage Month concert. And rival John Kerry will address the Congressional Hispanic Caucus today. Right now, Kerry is in Michigan, where, within the hour, he will make remarks at the Detroit Economic Club. The countdown now under way for thousands of hotel employees on both coasts threatening to strike. Workers in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington gave their union leaders the green light to call a walkout. They're hoping it will pressure employers into signing new work contracts. Labor contracts covering workers in D.C. expire today.
Pop superstar Madonna is heading to Israel. The Material Girl will take part in a Kabbalah conference. She'll join 2,000 participants from 22 countries in celebrating the start of the Jewish new year, Rosh Hashanah, tonight at sunset.
Now back to Bill, the biggest Madonna fan that I know, in Mobile -- hey, Bill.
HEMMER: You got it. The Material Boy.
Thank you, Heidi, again here.
Elevations are really so low up and down the Gulf Coast. Some major concern right now for the storm surge. Sometimes you have elevations of five feet, which is really nothing right now for a storm of this size.
For more on Ivan, we want to go east now of our location.
Rick Sanchez is live in Panama City Beach, Florida, where they're getting ready, as well -- Rick, good morning.
How are things so far?
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Bill.
You make a perfect point when you talk about elevation. This particular area, most people, when they think of the Florida coastline, they think of a long beach. Actually, there's lots of inlets, lots of bays. And those are the areas that officials are particularly concerned about. And that's why they have called for an evacuation. And they're expecting something like 500,000 people to be evacuated from this area.
For the most part, people in this area that we have been talking to have been heeding the call for many reasons, in fact. This has been an impressive hurricane season for the people of Florida, first through Charley, then through Frances. Both of those hurricanes have pretty much reinforced a fear, if we could use that word, in a lot of people to be a little bit more careful this time.
They say even if it doesn't come this way, they're going to make sure they're ready.
There's another hurricane, though, that some people we talked to say prepared them, and that's Andrew. Here's some of the people we talked to yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can definitely see the houses that they didn't protect and that they did protect. And the windows are out on one and there's boards up on the other and those windows will still be there.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's been blowing since yesterday, a couple of days now. So a lot of people are prepared, I personally think a lot more prepared than we were when we went through hurricane Andrew.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SANCHEZ: We have just been told that two more shelters are going to be opening up this morning. Of course, that means that schools are closed, because it's often schools that are used as shelters. And just to put in perspective the kind of hurricane season it's been here in Florida so far, still because of Charley there are pockets in the State of Florida without electricity; still because of Frances in the area around Jacksonville, they're still dealing with flooding.
Bill -- back to you.
HEMMER: Rick, I don't know what kind of a welcome this is as we get ready for a hurricane. Nonetheless, though, welcome, and good morning.
Good to have you here at CNN.
SANCHEZ: Thanks.
It's nice to be here.
Thanks so much.
HEMMER: You've got it.
Rick Sanchez, Panama City Beach.
We'll talk many times in the coming days here regarding Ivan.
Opal gets a lot of attention here, a storm with a huge storm surge back in 1995, only nine short years ago. Frederick, 25 years ago almost to the day, wiped out so many people here in the City of Mobile. We'll talk to two of them in a moment.
But first we want to get to Chad Myers yet again, watching the satellite, watching the radar, watching just about everything -- Chad, good morning back there at the CNN Center.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Bill.
And for the folks of New Orleans and Biloxi waiting for the turn. Watching for the hurricane to actually make its slight turn, as forecast by the Hurricane Center. Very hard to find that turn right now. This storm is still headed right here, to the mouth of the Mississippi, now 180 miles south-southeast of that mouth of the Mississippi. Here's the rainfall now. And when you get these rainfall bands over you, if you do, up here across the north, or even across parts of central Florida, you will see wind gusts in excess of hurricane strength later on today. So keep that in mind. I know you're focusing on the eye and where the line is and all that kind of stuff.
Here are the latest numbers. This is the 8:00 advisory numbers -- 26.7, 87.9. Winds are still 140. They had hurricane gusts there. They just flew through it with the hurricane hunter aircraft at 152 miles per hour up there at flight level.
This goes right over you, Bill. Mobile Bay, this is the Hurricane Center forecast, with winds to 140. I know you were with me there with Frances. We didn't get anything near that down there. Our highest gust was 88. You can almost double that for this one.
HEMMER: Indeed, you're right.
Chad, thanks for that.
Back here live in Mobile, Alabama now, Jimmy and Georgia Roussos are hoping that their family survives a lot better this time than they did 25 years ago. Twenty-five years since Frederick. Now we look at Ivan.
Good morning to both of you.
GEORGIA ROUSSOS, RESTAURANT OWNER: Good morning.
JIMMY ROUSSOS, RESTAURANT OWNER: Good morning.
HEMMER: What do you remember most from that hurricane of 1979?
G. ROUSSOS: Other than total devastation, the heat, the bees, my family's business was completely demolished. It was quite an experience for us.
HEMMER: You told me earlier it took you almost two years to rebuild, Jimmy.
J. ROUSSOS: It took us more than two.
HEMMER: Did you ever fully recover from that?
J. ROUSSOS: No, you never really recover from that sort of disaster. The economic loss of being out of work for two years and being out of business for two years is just something you never really recover from.
HEMMER: So there is no check that FEMA can write to help you get back to where you...
J. ROUSSOS: There's no check that I want that'll keep me out of work.
HEMMER: Let's talk about this year now, in 2004. How are you getting ready? What will you do?
G. ROUSSOS: We've boarded up. We've not only boarded up our homes, but we've boarded up at the restaurant. Yesterday my brothers and the kitchen employees took care of food that needed to be put up and stored for what we have to look forward to, which is probably at least two weeks of being out of power.
HEMMER: Knowing that Frances was so strong and Charley was so strong and this area has a history of taking the full brunt of these storms, do people listen?
J. ROUSSOS: Most times people are starting to listen now. The media has done an excellent job of getting the word out and people remember. There's been a lot of -- enough people from Opal and Frederick still here that they're telling everybody and they're starting to listen. I've seen more hurricane preparedness this storm than I have ever seen in my life.
HEMMER: Well, I hope you're right about that, Jimmy.
Thank you. And good luck to you. Georgia, you, as well. The restaurant is Roussos. And I hope this time, 25 years later, it fares a lot much better than 1979.
Good luck to you, all right?
They're staying with their mom just west of here in Mobile, in West Mobile, Alabama.
Much more in a moment here along the Gulf Coast, waiting for Ivan. Just about every 15 minutes we feel a little more rain come down and a little more clouds, again, coming from that eastern direction -- Heidi, back to you now in New York.
H. COLLINS: It's certainly on its way.
All right, Bill, thanks so much for that.
Well, you may know no one does weather quite like the "Old Farmer's Almanac." They've been forecasting it since 1792. The new edition of the "Old Farmer's Almanac," just like the 212 before, has winter weather predictions and a whole lot more.
Editor-in-chief Jud Hale is joining us now.
And you just told me during the break 46 years ago you walked in the door of the "Farmer's Almanac."
JUD HALE, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC": Yes, today.
H. COLLINS: Today? Well, congratulations to you. HALE: Well, thanks, Heidi.
H. COLLINS: We should stay on task here, though, talking about hurricane Ivan. HALE: Right.
H. COLLINS: Let's look a little bit about what the "Almanac" had predicted for Florida, if we could. Here's what we've got. Now, normally you guys are about 80 percent correct. I know that. But this, it shows a little bit different picture here. We've got, on the first through the third, sunny and hot; on the fourth through the seventh, thunderstorms, but then sunny and cool; going on down to the 14th through the 23rd of this month, sunny and very warm.
What happened?
HALE: Accurately predicting hurricanes is in our future.
H. COLLINS: OK.
Obviously a very...
HALE: We do think that...
H. COLLINS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
HALE: We do feel that hurricane activity will increase -- and we were aware of that -- probably over the next eight, 10 years. But we missed it by a little bit. We thought it would be coming a little later. So it is in the 2005 "Almanac" for next year and the...
H. COLLINS: And you said that was because the water temperature is going to get warmer.
HALE: The water temperature that becomes warm north of the equator -- usually it's down the south -- and that runs in cycles. So you have to be accurate on where the cycle is. We were just a little off in terms of hurricanes.
But even if we had known there was going to be an active hurricane, we wouldn't have known it was going to hit land tomorrow morning, which you've just been reporting.
H. COLLINS: Right. Right.
HALE: That's many years away, to be able to do that. But it's wonderful that we can do it, we, human beings, because, you know...
H. COLLINS: Oh, that's right.
HALE: ... the '38 hurricane, for instance, in 1938, came in off the ocean and nobody had any idea that it was coming in.
H. COLLINS: Right.
HALE: And today we can say it's going to hit land tomorrow or it's going to hit...
H. COLLINS: Yes, the National Hurricane Center is working on that, obviously, too. HALE: So that's good. Yes.
H. COLLINS: All right, let's...
HALE: We do better with the winter weather.
H. COLLINS: Let's talk about that, then. In fact, let's go ahead and look at your Web site. I think we were looking at that just a moment ago, in fact.
Winter 2005, it's going to be a cold one.
For who?
HALE: Well, pretty much for everybody east of the Rockies. West of the Rockies, it's going to be warmer, except for the Pacific Northwest. But generally speaking, we're looking for a little bit colder than average east of the Rockies and a little bit more snow than average or both, one or the other or both. And with the exceptions of like Montana and Wyoming, we think, will be fairly mild, which is an odd place for it to be mild, but we think mild and dry.
Northern New England, my area -- I'm from New Hampshire -- probably mild but very snowy. The Appalachians milder, but snowy. Very cold in the deep South relative to average, particularly in February and March. And more snow than usual in generally like, for instance, New Mexico across to northern Texas, Oklahoma...
H. COLLINS: I'm thinking Taos, Aspen. I'm thinking, you know, make the ski reservations now.
HALE: Yes, it's going to be OK. Yes, absolutely.
H. COLLINS: OK.
You heard it here.
You have something like, what is it, 18 million readers?
HALE: Yes, we do.
H. COLLINS: I mean that is just a huge number.
How do you come out with the predictions? What sort of data do you use?
HALE: It's on cycle. You know, we don't use the Willy Worms because the Willy Worm puts on his coat in the fall and we go to press in June.
H. COLLINS: You don't have time.
HALE: Back in 1792 we went to press in like the first week in July. So we've never been able to use nature's signs, even though I believe them. We look at the cycles of the sun and we feel that the sun triggers almost all our climate conditions and changes and all our weather changes, that radiant energy coming from the sun to the earth. Everybody used to think it fluctuated haphazardly. Now, with the advent of computers, we know it fluctuates in certain patterns that can be discerned.
H. COLLINS: Well, that's absolutely fascinating.
It so wonderful talking with you this morning.
HALE: Thanks, Heidi.
H. COLLINS: Jud Hale, editor-in-chief of the "Old Farmer's Almanac."
My grandpa would have loved to have met you.
HALE: Oh, isn't that nice?
H. COLLINS: Thank you so much this morning.
HALE: I'd love to meet him.
H. COLLINS: Yes, OK.
Thanks so much.
Still to come this morning now, people are getting out by the thousands. But what happens to the folks staying behind when Ivan hits? Dr. Gupta tells us how to prepare for a medical crisis and a weather emergency.
Also, the fallout from that stadium brawl in Texas. Somebody gets charged in the latest run-in between fans and players.
And law makers today detail their plan to reorganize the nation's intelligence community. But before they do, they're talking to AMERICAN MORNING. Senator Joe Lieberman straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
H. COLLINS: Later this morning, two Senate leaders will unveil their plan for reforming the nation's intelligence community. The legislation could be the first to come out of the 9/11 Commission report. Maine Republican Susan Collins and Connecticut Democrat Joe Lieberman are behind it.
They are joining us this morning from Capitol Hill.
Thanks so much for being with us to the two of you.
We certainly appreciate it here on AMERICAN MORNING once again.
Senator Lieberman, I wanted to begin with you, indicated. Some news to us this morning, coming out yesterday, actually. We had Porter Goss before the Senate Intelligence Committee, who actually said, you know, this is going to take a while, perhaps more than five years, to actually rebuild the intelligence community.
Your thoughts on that? That's a long time.
SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), CONNECTICUT: Well, I think I know what Porter Goss was talking about. He understands that he's got a job to do and he didn't want the committee that he was appearing for to believe that he thinks everything is great, because he's worked closely, actually worked in the CIA for 10 years of his career.
But a lot of what ails the intelligence community can and must be cured a lot quicker. I think the reforms that Senator Collins and I are going to put before our committee will do just that. We've got a lot of great assets. There's no intelligence service in the world like ours. We can do things that nobody else can do.
But it's not coordinated. There's no quarterback in charge. And that's what our legislation would do.
It may be that some of the things that Porter Goss wants to do, like recruiting experts in language and enough spies, human intelligence sources, that may take some years. But we can make this intelligence community of ours exactly what it should be quickly. And we have to because the threat from al Qaeda and the other terrorists is there right now.
H. COLLINS: All right, Senator Collins, on Monday now, we also heard something from Secretary Colin Powell, talking about how he really didn't think it was that great of an idea for the CIA, the FBI and the Pentagon to serve in that inner circle, if you will, of the NID.
But isn't that exactly what the recommendations from 9/11 Committee called for in order to have all of those agencies talking?
SEN. SUSAN COLLINS, (R-ME), CHAIR GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE: Well, Secretary Powell actually gave a very strong endorsement to the outlines of the proposal that Senator Lieberman and I are presenting today. He endorsed a strong national intelligence director. What he expressed reservations about, and many of our witnesses and we ourselves agree, is the proposal that some of the deputies to this director would also run agencies in either the Department of Defense or the Department of Homeland Security or the CIA.
We agree that that creates a confusing situation and we did not adopt that particular formulation.
H. COLLINS: Yes, as a matter of fact, clearing up some of that confusion might be possible, Senator Lieberman. The 9/11 Commission wanting the national intelligence director to control nearly all intelligence gathering. But your plan talks about the Defense Intelligence Agency, otherwise known as the DIA, in control of the military. Do you think that's going to help?
LIEBERMAN: Yes, it will help. In fact, that's exactly what the 9/11 Commission recommended, that so-called tactical military intelligence stay within the Department of Defense but the national intelligence programs go to the national intelligence director that we would create. This is a revolutionary change.
Today, more than 80 percent of the budget in intelligence goes to the Department of Defense. We're turning that around. I can't talk about the specific numbers because they're classified. But this national intelligence director is going to have the money and control of the money. When you have the control of the money, you can, as the quarterback, you can get the whole team working together in the national interests.
I do want to say that it's been a great pleasure to work with Senator Collins, who is chairman of our committee. And we've done this on a totally bipartisan basis. We've not divided into partisan caucuses or consulted party officials. This is all about national security. And it's what legislating should be all about, particularly in a time of crisis such as we're in today.
And I want to thank Senator Collins for that kind of leadership that she's offered.
H. COLLINS: Great.
Senator Collins, quickly, before we let you go, are you pleased with the progress of the legislation so far?
S. COLLINS: I'm very pleased. We've held eight hearings. We've consulted widely. The bill follows the blueprint set out by the 9/11 Commission. But it also reflects what we've learned at our hearings. As Joe indicated, we have gone forward in a bipartisan way. I think we're making great progress and this bill will be enacted this year.
H. COLLINS: Right. Well, people will be happy to hear that and to look forward to the progress.
Thanks so much to the two of you this morning, Senator Joe Lieberman and Senator Susan Collins.
LIEBERMAN: Thank you, Heidi.
S. COLLINS: Thanks, again.
H. COLLINS: Bill, back now to Mobile.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi.
Twenty-two minutes ago, the latest numbers came out. An absolutely huge storm, a category four. Still winds sustained at 140 miles an hour. If you go back a hundred years, only three category five hurricanes have ever made landfall in the U.S. This storm below that just a bit, but still a very big storm. What could be the big one today is hurricane Ivan, a couple of hundred miles off the Gulf Coast and moving closer to land.
Where will it land?
The latest on that path still to come here live in Mobile in a moment on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
H. COLLINS: Time for Jack now and the Question of the Day.
You're getting lots of responses this morning.
CAFFERTY: Indeed.
Thanks, Heidi.
Those documents that CBS News reported on last Wednesday regarding President Bush's National Guard service, CBS said that the papers came from solid sources and were vetted for authenticity by document experts.
However, the "Washington Post" this morning says two of those experts who looked at the memos before the story aired said that CBS ignored significant red flags about whether they were real.
The question we're asking is do you believe the CBS report about President Bush's National Guard service?
Joy in Iowa writes: "Given the furor over the Swift Boat veteran ads, CBS should have had every expert that they hired, no matter what they decided, in the report. They should have tried harder to get the original documents, as well as more documents from the same time and location."
David in Lovington, New Mexico: "I believe very little that comes from any of the major network newscasters." Except for us, right? "Especially Dan Rather," he says.
Josh in Whibley Island, Washington: "I believe the report as a whole, but I have to admit it's rather apparent that these particular documents were forged and CBS was duped. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Karl Rove had something to do with setting them up to turn this story on CBS' head and effectively end all debate on the issue by putting the spotlight on CBS News."
And Bill writes: "The documents are plainly fake. The only question is whether CBS will hold anyone accountable. The producers should be fired and Dan Rather should apologize."
Am@cnn.com.
H. COLLINS: It's going to be very interesting to see how they handle it now. I expect we'll probably hear something in the next couple of days.
CAFFERTY: Yes, as we pointed out, the president and the White House have to be happy because all of a sudden, instead of debating his National Guard service, we're debating CBS News' authenticity and having discussions about Dan Rather, which takes the spotlight off the president.
H. COLLINS: Yes, we haven't seen that happen before, that's for sure.
All right...
CAFFERTY: It couldn't have worked out better for the pres.
H. COLLINS: Jack Cafferty, thanks so much for that.
Still to come this morning, we'll go back down to Bill now, who is standing by live in Mobile, Alabama, waiting for hurricane Ivan to hit.
Plus, that brawl the other night in Texas about to cross over from the diamond to the courtroom. The latest on that ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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