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CNN Live At Daybreak
Political Messages; "America's Voice"; "Today's Talker"
Aired September 28, 2004 - 06:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Thirty-five days until Election Day, and here's the latest snapshot of the political landscape.
George Bush leads in the polls, but the debates could be pivot -- pivotal, rather, in changing the momentum. The stakes are high in Thursday's debate. Both Bush and Kerry have messages they hope will stick in your mind.
But as CNN's Bob Franken reports, the debate is as much about the message as it is about the messenger.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is what the Republicans want the voters to remember: a president looking like he was taking command in the country's rubble after September 11.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can hear you.
FRANKEN: Democrats want them to hear the president's war in Iraq as a deadly distraction from the war on terror.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's not that I would have done just one thing differently in Iraq; I would have done everything differently in Iraq.
FRANKEN: Republicans, who have had considerable success labeling Kerry a flip-flopper, delight in pointing out that he voted to authorize the war, but that was when the administration insisted Saddam Hussein had stockpiled weapons of mass destruction.
WILLIAM COHEN, CLINTON DEFENSE SECRETARY: If you take away the core argument and the rationale for going, namely that he had these weapons and that they were a gathering threat, then it certainly would call into question the immediacy or the need to go to war.
FRANKEN: That was then. The president makes a different argument now.
BUSH: Do I forget the lessons of September the 11th and take the word of a madman, or do I take action to defend our country?
FRANKEN: The polls back the president, with the majority saying it was not a mistake to send troops to Iraq. That's according to the latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup survey.
JOHN HULSMAN, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: I think the president can still make this argument that in this new world you simply can't wait around for that gun to be fired.
FRANKEN: The resulting antagonism from traditional U.S. allies has not had much of a political impact.
PAUL WILLIAMS, INTERNATIONAL LAW EXPERT: There hasn't been a debate about those consequences, whether they're positive or negative and whether you can continue to play on the field that Bush has set.
FRANKEN: And with a large part of the first presidential debate this week expected to focus on Iraq's future, the rhetoric has only intensified.
BUSH: The way to secure Iraq and bring our troops home as quickly as possible is not to wilt or waiver or send mixed signals to the enemy.
KERRY: Yesterday I was in Orlando right next to Fantasyland, and the difference between George Bush and me is I drove by it. He lives in it.
FRANKEN (on camera): In an insular country like the United States, foreign policy issues have long been overshadowed by domestic debates. But since the September 11 attacks, they are now one in the same.
Bob Franken, CNN, reporting.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: So, do Americans have the wrong impression of what's happening on the ground in Iraq. Some U.S. commanders fear that is the case. CNN just spoke to the man who overseas U.S. forces in Iraq. We just got this tape in. Here is what he had to say, and this is all new this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: I do think that there is a general lack of understanding in the United States of how things are going. The images that are on the screens are almost always of negative images as opposed to the important and positive steps that are taken.
For example, today we met with the governor of Diyala province here, and we met with the police chief of the province. Violence is down. They're moving forward economically. They are very optimistic about being able to conduct elections. They are very optimistic about the future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: The U.S. military has been conducting a series of strikes recently in areas held by insurgents.
Now, let's get a feel for what voters are thinking about the presidential race. CNN Gallup Poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport live in Princeton, New Jersey. He has some new poll numbers to show us.
What's the latest on the election, Frank?
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, Bush is ahead. No question about that in our poll and almost every poll that we look at, at this point in time. These are likely voters.
After the convention, of course, Bush made his move. He did really well, of course, a week or two ago in our Gallup Poll, now 8 points, 52-44 among likely voters, Bush over John Kerry.
One of the reasons for this is, we think analyzing the data, the Bush campaign so far has been very successful in stressing, as we just heard in Bob Franken's piece, terrorism.
Look at this. We've tracked it. What of four are the most -- is the most issue that's going to determine your vote. I left health care off, because it's always at the bottom. July, September and right now in late September, the green bar, economy has stayed constant.
But that red line that's going up there is the percent who say terrorism is their first choice. Look at how that's increased. It's now slightly above the economy overall among likely voters, the percent you mentioned, Iraq has dropped down.
Of course, terrorism reflects, we think, what the Republican have been emphasizing -- Carol.
COSTELLO: OK. So, those lines are kind of confusing to me. How do Americans feel about the situation specifically in Iraq?
NEWPORT: Well, it's, as we see with that line dropping down there, it's no longer the top choice at all when we give them a choice there. I think it's still important, just not top of mind compared to terrorism and the economy.
Here's a real issue for John Kerry: Do they have a clear plan for handling Iraq, Carol? For Bush, it's 52-44. But for Kerry, only 30 percent say yes. So, one of the issues for the Kerry campaign, of course, is to try to define to the American public that he, in fact, has a plan and tell Americans what that is.
COSTELLO: OK. Let's talk about the debates and how voters feel about them.
NEWPORT: Very interesting. Just 18 percent of voters this year tell us they think the debates will be a pivotal or important factor in determining their vote. That's right here. That reflects the polarized electorate, where a lot of people have already made up their mind. In 2000 at this time, Carol, it was 26 percent. In 1992, before those three-way debates with Perot, it was 30 percent. So, fewer Americans think the debates are going to be important this year than in the past. Here's something that actually won't please the Bush campaign: Expectations of who will do better in the debates: Bush, 52; Kerry, 39. Both campaigns want to downplay expectations. So, Kerry is probably actually happier that people don't expect as much; therefore, he can over-perform. That's the whole game in the debates -- Carol.
COSTELLO: Interesting numbers, as usual. Frank Newport live in Princeton, New Jersey, this morning, thank you.
You know, that 18-percent stat that Frank told us about makes us wonder if our debate this morning should be about the debates. But we do know the major theme of the debate on Thursday is important.
So, joining us from the left, hot talker Nancy Skinner. She's live in Chicago. And from the right, libertarian talker Neal Boortz.
Welcome to you both.
NEAL BOORTZ, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Good morning.
NANCY SKINNER, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Good morning.
COSTELLO: That theme will be the question of leadership in the war on terror. And both parties have already been debating that.
Let's listen to what Senator Ted Kennedy says:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: The greatest danger we face in the days, weeks and months ahead is a nuclear 9/11 we hope and pray that is not already too late to prevent. The war in Iraq has made the mushroom cloud more likely, not less likely. And it never should have happened.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Neal, should President Bush worry?
BOORTZ: That's quite an escalation, isn't it? It used to be limited to they're going to take away your social security. Now it's nuclear mushroom clouds.
Sure, I think anybody should be worried going into these joint news conferences. They're not a debate, OK? They're answering questions from the media. They are joint news conferences. But you can always just have one slip up that the press will just hammer for the following week. So, both sides should be worried.
And I think that you were right just a second ago that the high expectations for Bush are actually bad for Bush. Democrats love to paint Republicans as being stupid. Then when Republicans go to debates and actually do well, the cry is, oh, look, they over- performed, just as Frank said. And so...
COSTELLO: Yes, but, Nancy, aren't the Democrats playing that same game?
SKINNER: Not as well. Bush makes an easy target to get misunderestimated as he has said in the past. But I don't think he can pull it off once again. The pundits on the sideline, they're not going to hold him to that very low standard that they have in the past, because he is -- he's got this folksy charm.
I think the key is that really Bush has to act smarter than he really is, and Kerry has to dumb-it down a bit and act a little warmer maybe than he is. Because the key issue is, as we just heard, is Iraq and terrorism. And President Bush has been just brilliant at painting Kerry as a flip-flopper.
So, here's Kerry's chance without the news media and the attack dog commercials and the 527 to set the record straight.
COSTELLO: Neal, do you agree that Kerry has to dumb himself down and...
BOORTZ: Well, I love it. You know, since I was born, Republicans have always been stupid in the eyes of Democrats. I love it. We have a Harvard MBA that needs to act smarter than he really is. Oh, that's great. And John Kerry, you don't...
SKINNER: The truth hurts, Neal.
BOORTZ: Yes. What I'd like to see is a debate over what each one of these people has done just during the last four years. Kerry's performance over the last four years versus Bush's over the last four years. Now, that would be interesting.
COSTELLO: Oh, that's never going to happen, Neal.
BOORTZ: No, I don't think so.
COSTELLO: Nancy, what does John Kerry need to say during these debates? Does he have to come out really swinging just like we heard Ted Kennedy a short time ago?
SKINNER: Yes, he really does. He has to be very clear about his positions on Iraq and terror and what he will do about it, because that message is not getting through the media filters. And I think he's got to overcome a lot of obstacles that the Bush campaign has put out there. They want the heat turned up so he sweats. They want these lights showing so he can't run out of time.
I'm surprised the Bush people didn't ask that President Bush can sit on a phone book and have Karl Rove under the table. He's got a lot of physical obstacles to overcome.
COSTELLO: Well, I think specifically what you're talking about is the temperature in the room is going to be 70 degrees, and John Kerry wanted it lowered.
SKINNER: Right. COSTELLO: And the Republicans are saying that's because he's a sweater. Women voters don't like men who sweat profusely, which is kind of a mean thing to say, Neal.
BOORTZ: Well, did you see John Kerry yesterday? He -- you know, he looks like he's been out in the sun. They're coloring him up for the debates right now to make sure he has that manly outdoor tan. This is so much showmanship in these debates. I would almost rather see them respond in writing to questions and maybe get a true idea.
And if Kerry, if his job is to make it clear what he intends to do in Iraq in this debate, he's doomed.
COSTELLO: Nancy, doomed, true?
SKINNER: No. Yes, you know, the situation -- a majority of Americans say this country is headed in the wrong direction. Kerry has just got to get through those filters and show why it is that he can as the president deal with the world in a way that President Bush has not been able to. And here's his chance without the media filter to do that.
COSTELLO: OK. Let me ask you both this question. Neal, I'll ask you first.
BOORTZ: OK.
COSTELLO: Who do you think is going to win?
BOORTZ: I really -- I'm sorry, Carol.
COSTELLO: Oh, come on!
BOORTZ: I can't say.
COSTELLO: Come on!
BOORTZ: I don't really know who is going to win. I think that because of the stilted format of this thing, the American people will be the losers. But I think that George Bush has the heavyweight belt right now. He has the title. You have to take it away from him.
So, John Kerry has to be a clear winner to even make it a draw. So, I guess I'd have to give the advantage to Bush right now.
COSTELLO: Nancy?
SKINNER: Well, it depends on how tough the questions are. If they're really tough, I think Kerry has a really good shot at it. But I just think -- I think that, you know, the expectations are everything. Again, in this debate, Kerry, the expectations are lower. So, I think he's going to show the world how smart he really is.
COSTELLO: Nancy Skinner, Neal Boortz, thank you for joining DAYBREAK this morning.
BOORTZ: OK. See you next week.
SKINNER: Thanks.
COSTELLO: Here on DAYBREAK, we'll be looking at the run-up to Thursday's debate all week long. Tomorrow morning, Dan Lothian brings us a look at how George W. Bush's debate style -- he'll actually look at George Bush's debate style and how he's preparing for this first face-to-face meeting.
Coming up on DAYBREAK, here's a story that will get you to your office this morning. Actually, it will get you to your office upset. A pregnant woman rides the D.C. Metro, but when you hear why police arrested her, you'll understand why this story is making the Beltway buzz.
Then, are all of the underground rumblings a sign that something is about to blow. A look at Mount St. Helens from 1980 to now.
But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Tuesday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Taking a look at the overseas markets, an eight-day losing streak for Japan's Nikkei. It closes down nearly 44 points. In Europe, Britain's FTSE is trading up just over 28 points, while France's CAC is up about 13 points.
Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:45 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
Still no word on the fate of a CNN producer this morning. Gunmen abducted Riad Ali yesterday while he was working in the Gaza Strip.
In Dubai, officials are still trying to find out why half- finished building at the airport collapsed. Five construction workers were killed, a dozen others hurt.
In money news, the price of crude oil has hit $50 a barrel in overseas trading, and that would be a record. Blame it on Hurricane Ivan, which disrupted much of the oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
In culture, Jay Leno is leaving "The Tonight Show." Actually, he isn't leaving the show until his current contract runs out in 2009. But NBC already named late-night host Conan O'Brien as Leno's successor.
In sports, Olympic champion gymnast Paul Hamm pleaded his case to the sports world's highest court in an effort to keep his gold medal. The controversy is over a judging error that wrongly docked a South Korean a tenth of a point. A ruling is expected sometime in the next two weeks.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COSTELLO: Those are the latest headlines for you.
Can you hear me now? A transit police officer in the Washington area apparently heard enough. He arrested a pregnant woman for talking too loudly on her cell phone.
Joining us now, Judlyne Lilly from Washington radio's WTOP.
Good morning, Judlyne.
JUDLYNE LILLY, WTOP NEWS ANCHOR: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: You know, I can hear many people cheering, because it's so irritating when people talk loudly on their cell phone.
LILLY: Yes, it is, but not when the police officer puts his knee in your back and you're five months' pregnant.
COSTELLO: Ooh!
LILLY: That's...
COSTELLO: So, tell us exactly what happened.
LILLY: Well...
COSTELLO: She's in a Metro station.
LILLY: She's in -- well, actually she is not in the Metro station per se. She is outside about to go catch a bus. She's on her cell phone, according to the report. This is where everybody agrees, and then the story diverges.
The officer says she was speaking loudly, and that not only was she speaking loudly, but that she was cursing loudly. And this is what made him ask her to please speak softly and to stop using obscenities. And that's where the stories diverge.
She told him, you can't tell me how loud to speak on my cell phone, and he grabbed her, apparently -- this is according to her story -- and they had a little tussle. And he arrested her and put -- I don't know if he put handcuffs on her, but he did arrest her. And she was taken to a cell, where she stayed for three hours until she was released.
COSTELLO: Well, what was the charge?
LILLY: Well, she was charged with disorderly conduct in some ways, because -- well, the actual charge was that she was just basically being too loud, and that she was disturbing the peace.
COSTELLO: I understand. So, it wasn't like a pro or negative cell phone kind of thing. It was just because she was loud and allegedly cursing.
LILLY: Loud and allegedly cursing. Now, let me give you a little insight into dealing with the Metro police here. When Metro opened in the late '70s -- I believe it was '76 -- the rules were don't eat, don't drink, don't smoke, don't litter. Now, that's the same as the New York City subway has, too, but you see how well that works.
In the Washington area, they were adamant that the system would be clean all the time, and if anybody has ever ridden the Metros in Washington, they are. But it also comes at a cost. If you get caught with your bagel and you're just nipping at it, they will give you a ticket. If you are sitting on the train eating, they will give you a ticket. If you give them (INAUDIBLE), they will take you.
It is very, very difficult -- they are very strict with those rules. And they've gotten in trouble for arresting a 12-year-old girl for eating a French fry. They arrested a woman for -- ticketed a woman for eating a candy bar. It's just the way the system has always been, and they have always been criticized for that. And they have also been criticized because they can't seem to get you where you need to go at the time that you need to get there.
COSTELLO: And therein lies the problem.
LILLY: And therein lies the problem.
COSTELLO: Yes. Judlyne Lilly, thank you very much, joining us from WTOP in Washington, D.C.
I'm telling you, though, that talking loudly on the cell phone is irritating.
It's going to get uglier before it gets better. Coming up, is America's most infamous volcano about to blow again?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: After the mountain blew, this was just gray up here. It was just totally -- I mean, it was just barren.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Memories of the last Mount St. Helens eruption and the outlook for possibly the next one.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: The question may be: If Mount St. Helens will erupt -- oh, I read that wrong. I'm so sorry. Mount St. Helens in Washington State, there is a danger it's going to erupt again. And with the current rise in underground activity, the time may be near.
CNN's Kimberly Osias looks back at the vent that made the mountain famous.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was 1980 when Mount St. Helens finally blew 80,000 feet into the sky, flattening a wooded area the size of Chicago and killing 57 people.
TODD CULLINGS, U.S. FOREST SERVICE: This landslide came down. Gases inside the molten rock rapidly expanded.
OSIAS: It was one of those watershed events, etched forever in our collective memory.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: After the mountain blew, this was just gray up here. It was just totally -- I mean, it was just barren.
OSIAS (on camera): Almost two and a half decades later, the ecosystem is still healing. Most of the animals have returned. The trees are a little bit slower. Here, you can clearly see where the timber companies have replanted, and in the distance behind me where Mother Nature is still struggling to rebuild.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I bet when we hit the 50th anniversary of the eruption, people will be struggling to understand the story just because it's going to so well-hidden by the return of the forest.
OSIAS (voice over): But there are some areas where trees still lie like matchsticks, part of the spectacle that draws a million visitors a year.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you want to have a really good idea of how big this landslide was, just put your fingers up even with each slope of Mount St. Helens. Where your fingertips meet together, that shows you where the summit of the volcano used to be.
OSIAS: Some visitors keep coming back.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Look, there's still some dead trees standing.
OSIAS: For Sylvia Flores Milson (ph), it's important not to forget.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I want them to see how we all got through this. We all -- and it all came out OK.
OSIAS: The crater still steams. And scientists monitor Mount St. Helens daily. They say it's not a question of whether it will blow again, but when.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If it's going to be in another year, 2 years, 10 years, or more, certainly it will.
OSIAS: For now, Mount St. Helens looms as a graphic reminder of nature's raw power.
Kimberly Osias, CNN, Mount St. Helens, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE) COSTELLO: If you just can't wait for more news on Mount St. Helens, you can actually log on and watch the mountain. The Forestry Service has set up a camera to shoot images of the volcano around the clock. The Web address is kind of long, so get a pencil. Go ahead.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Got it.
COSTELLO: Get that pencil. Look at the bottom of the screen. There it is. We looked on the Web cam and it's nothing but black out there now because it's kind of dark in Washington.
MARCIANO: It's dark. It's dark. But it's a cool mountain -- or half-mountain to look at.
COSTELLO: It is cool, isn't it?
MARCIANO: Actually, if you stand at the rim -- I was fortunate enough to climb a few years ago -- it's just amazing to look down in the crater. And you see the power of a volcano eruption and how the trees are just still knocked down to this day.
COSTELLO: Well, I wouldn't want to be up there now.
MARCIANO: No.
COSTELLO: No.
We're going to be right back. Stick around.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Chad is on his way back from Melbourne, Florida.
MARCIANO: Yes, after chasing yet another -- we need to get you down in the middle of the hurricane with Chad. That would be a great morning show.
COSTELLO: I've covered hurricanes before, and they're not fun. I mean, they're scary and uncomfortable because there's no place to sleep. So, I know all about that.
MARCIANO: Yes, I think it's time we do that.
COSTELLO: And I think Chad can go.
MARCIANO: He'll be back tomorrow.
COSTELLO: Well, thanks for being with us, Rob Marciano.
MARCIANO: Enjoyed it.
COSTELLO: I'm Carol Costello. Chad, again, will be back tomorrow.
"AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.
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Aired September 28, 2004 - 06:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Thirty-five days until Election Day, and here's the latest snapshot of the political landscape.
George Bush leads in the polls, but the debates could be pivot -- pivotal, rather, in changing the momentum. The stakes are high in Thursday's debate. Both Bush and Kerry have messages they hope will stick in your mind.
But as CNN's Bob Franken reports, the debate is as much about the message as it is about the messenger.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is what the Republicans want the voters to remember: a president looking like he was taking command in the country's rubble after September 11.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can hear you.
FRANKEN: Democrats want them to hear the president's war in Iraq as a deadly distraction from the war on terror.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's not that I would have done just one thing differently in Iraq; I would have done everything differently in Iraq.
FRANKEN: Republicans, who have had considerable success labeling Kerry a flip-flopper, delight in pointing out that he voted to authorize the war, but that was when the administration insisted Saddam Hussein had stockpiled weapons of mass destruction.
WILLIAM COHEN, CLINTON DEFENSE SECRETARY: If you take away the core argument and the rationale for going, namely that he had these weapons and that they were a gathering threat, then it certainly would call into question the immediacy or the need to go to war.
FRANKEN: That was then. The president makes a different argument now.
BUSH: Do I forget the lessons of September the 11th and take the word of a madman, or do I take action to defend our country?
FRANKEN: The polls back the president, with the majority saying it was not a mistake to send troops to Iraq. That's according to the latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup survey.
JOHN HULSMAN, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: I think the president can still make this argument that in this new world you simply can't wait around for that gun to be fired.
FRANKEN: The resulting antagonism from traditional U.S. allies has not had much of a political impact.
PAUL WILLIAMS, INTERNATIONAL LAW EXPERT: There hasn't been a debate about those consequences, whether they're positive or negative and whether you can continue to play on the field that Bush has set.
FRANKEN: And with a large part of the first presidential debate this week expected to focus on Iraq's future, the rhetoric has only intensified.
BUSH: The way to secure Iraq and bring our troops home as quickly as possible is not to wilt or waiver or send mixed signals to the enemy.
KERRY: Yesterday I was in Orlando right next to Fantasyland, and the difference between George Bush and me is I drove by it. He lives in it.
FRANKEN (on camera): In an insular country like the United States, foreign policy issues have long been overshadowed by domestic debates. But since the September 11 attacks, they are now one in the same.
Bob Franken, CNN, reporting.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: So, do Americans have the wrong impression of what's happening on the ground in Iraq. Some U.S. commanders fear that is the case. CNN just spoke to the man who overseas U.S. forces in Iraq. We just got this tape in. Here is what he had to say, and this is all new this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: I do think that there is a general lack of understanding in the United States of how things are going. The images that are on the screens are almost always of negative images as opposed to the important and positive steps that are taken.
For example, today we met with the governor of Diyala province here, and we met with the police chief of the province. Violence is down. They're moving forward economically. They are very optimistic about being able to conduct elections. They are very optimistic about the future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: The U.S. military has been conducting a series of strikes recently in areas held by insurgents.
Now, let's get a feel for what voters are thinking about the presidential race. CNN Gallup Poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport live in Princeton, New Jersey. He has some new poll numbers to show us.
What's the latest on the election, Frank?
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, Bush is ahead. No question about that in our poll and almost every poll that we look at, at this point in time. These are likely voters.
After the convention, of course, Bush made his move. He did really well, of course, a week or two ago in our Gallup Poll, now 8 points, 52-44 among likely voters, Bush over John Kerry.
One of the reasons for this is, we think analyzing the data, the Bush campaign so far has been very successful in stressing, as we just heard in Bob Franken's piece, terrorism.
Look at this. We've tracked it. What of four are the most -- is the most issue that's going to determine your vote. I left health care off, because it's always at the bottom. July, September and right now in late September, the green bar, economy has stayed constant.
But that red line that's going up there is the percent who say terrorism is their first choice. Look at how that's increased. It's now slightly above the economy overall among likely voters, the percent you mentioned, Iraq has dropped down.
Of course, terrorism reflects, we think, what the Republican have been emphasizing -- Carol.
COSTELLO: OK. So, those lines are kind of confusing to me. How do Americans feel about the situation specifically in Iraq?
NEWPORT: Well, it's, as we see with that line dropping down there, it's no longer the top choice at all when we give them a choice there. I think it's still important, just not top of mind compared to terrorism and the economy.
Here's a real issue for John Kerry: Do they have a clear plan for handling Iraq, Carol? For Bush, it's 52-44. But for Kerry, only 30 percent say yes. So, one of the issues for the Kerry campaign, of course, is to try to define to the American public that he, in fact, has a plan and tell Americans what that is.
COSTELLO: OK. Let's talk about the debates and how voters feel about them.
NEWPORT: Very interesting. Just 18 percent of voters this year tell us they think the debates will be a pivotal or important factor in determining their vote. That's right here. That reflects the polarized electorate, where a lot of people have already made up their mind. In 2000 at this time, Carol, it was 26 percent. In 1992, before those three-way debates with Perot, it was 30 percent. So, fewer Americans think the debates are going to be important this year than in the past. Here's something that actually won't please the Bush campaign: Expectations of who will do better in the debates: Bush, 52; Kerry, 39. Both campaigns want to downplay expectations. So, Kerry is probably actually happier that people don't expect as much; therefore, he can over-perform. That's the whole game in the debates -- Carol.
COSTELLO: Interesting numbers, as usual. Frank Newport live in Princeton, New Jersey, this morning, thank you.
You know, that 18-percent stat that Frank told us about makes us wonder if our debate this morning should be about the debates. But we do know the major theme of the debate on Thursday is important.
So, joining us from the left, hot talker Nancy Skinner. She's live in Chicago. And from the right, libertarian talker Neal Boortz.
Welcome to you both.
NEAL BOORTZ, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Good morning.
NANCY SKINNER, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Good morning.
COSTELLO: That theme will be the question of leadership in the war on terror. And both parties have already been debating that.
Let's listen to what Senator Ted Kennedy says:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: The greatest danger we face in the days, weeks and months ahead is a nuclear 9/11 we hope and pray that is not already too late to prevent. The war in Iraq has made the mushroom cloud more likely, not less likely. And it never should have happened.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Neal, should President Bush worry?
BOORTZ: That's quite an escalation, isn't it? It used to be limited to they're going to take away your social security. Now it's nuclear mushroom clouds.
Sure, I think anybody should be worried going into these joint news conferences. They're not a debate, OK? They're answering questions from the media. They are joint news conferences. But you can always just have one slip up that the press will just hammer for the following week. So, both sides should be worried.
And I think that you were right just a second ago that the high expectations for Bush are actually bad for Bush. Democrats love to paint Republicans as being stupid. Then when Republicans go to debates and actually do well, the cry is, oh, look, they over- performed, just as Frank said. And so...
COSTELLO: Yes, but, Nancy, aren't the Democrats playing that same game?
SKINNER: Not as well. Bush makes an easy target to get misunderestimated as he has said in the past. But I don't think he can pull it off once again. The pundits on the sideline, they're not going to hold him to that very low standard that they have in the past, because he is -- he's got this folksy charm.
I think the key is that really Bush has to act smarter than he really is, and Kerry has to dumb-it down a bit and act a little warmer maybe than he is. Because the key issue is, as we just heard, is Iraq and terrorism. And President Bush has been just brilliant at painting Kerry as a flip-flopper.
So, here's Kerry's chance without the news media and the attack dog commercials and the 527 to set the record straight.
COSTELLO: Neal, do you agree that Kerry has to dumb himself down and...
BOORTZ: Well, I love it. You know, since I was born, Republicans have always been stupid in the eyes of Democrats. I love it. We have a Harvard MBA that needs to act smarter than he really is. Oh, that's great. And John Kerry, you don't...
SKINNER: The truth hurts, Neal.
BOORTZ: Yes. What I'd like to see is a debate over what each one of these people has done just during the last four years. Kerry's performance over the last four years versus Bush's over the last four years. Now, that would be interesting.
COSTELLO: Oh, that's never going to happen, Neal.
BOORTZ: No, I don't think so.
COSTELLO: Nancy, what does John Kerry need to say during these debates? Does he have to come out really swinging just like we heard Ted Kennedy a short time ago?
SKINNER: Yes, he really does. He has to be very clear about his positions on Iraq and terror and what he will do about it, because that message is not getting through the media filters. And I think he's got to overcome a lot of obstacles that the Bush campaign has put out there. They want the heat turned up so he sweats. They want these lights showing so he can't run out of time.
I'm surprised the Bush people didn't ask that President Bush can sit on a phone book and have Karl Rove under the table. He's got a lot of physical obstacles to overcome.
COSTELLO: Well, I think specifically what you're talking about is the temperature in the room is going to be 70 degrees, and John Kerry wanted it lowered.
SKINNER: Right. COSTELLO: And the Republicans are saying that's because he's a sweater. Women voters don't like men who sweat profusely, which is kind of a mean thing to say, Neal.
BOORTZ: Well, did you see John Kerry yesterday? He -- you know, he looks like he's been out in the sun. They're coloring him up for the debates right now to make sure he has that manly outdoor tan. This is so much showmanship in these debates. I would almost rather see them respond in writing to questions and maybe get a true idea.
And if Kerry, if his job is to make it clear what he intends to do in Iraq in this debate, he's doomed.
COSTELLO: Nancy, doomed, true?
SKINNER: No. Yes, you know, the situation -- a majority of Americans say this country is headed in the wrong direction. Kerry has just got to get through those filters and show why it is that he can as the president deal with the world in a way that President Bush has not been able to. And here's his chance without the media filter to do that.
COSTELLO: OK. Let me ask you both this question. Neal, I'll ask you first.
BOORTZ: OK.
COSTELLO: Who do you think is going to win?
BOORTZ: I really -- I'm sorry, Carol.
COSTELLO: Oh, come on!
BOORTZ: I can't say.
COSTELLO: Come on!
BOORTZ: I don't really know who is going to win. I think that because of the stilted format of this thing, the American people will be the losers. But I think that George Bush has the heavyweight belt right now. He has the title. You have to take it away from him.
So, John Kerry has to be a clear winner to even make it a draw. So, I guess I'd have to give the advantage to Bush right now.
COSTELLO: Nancy?
SKINNER: Well, it depends on how tough the questions are. If they're really tough, I think Kerry has a really good shot at it. But I just think -- I think that, you know, the expectations are everything. Again, in this debate, Kerry, the expectations are lower. So, I think he's going to show the world how smart he really is.
COSTELLO: Nancy Skinner, Neal Boortz, thank you for joining DAYBREAK this morning.
BOORTZ: OK. See you next week.
SKINNER: Thanks.
COSTELLO: Here on DAYBREAK, we'll be looking at the run-up to Thursday's debate all week long. Tomorrow morning, Dan Lothian brings us a look at how George W. Bush's debate style -- he'll actually look at George Bush's debate style and how he's preparing for this first face-to-face meeting.
Coming up on DAYBREAK, here's a story that will get you to your office this morning. Actually, it will get you to your office upset. A pregnant woman rides the D.C. Metro, but when you hear why police arrested her, you'll understand why this story is making the Beltway buzz.
Then, are all of the underground rumblings a sign that something is about to blow. A look at Mount St. Helens from 1980 to now.
But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Tuesday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Taking a look at the overseas markets, an eight-day losing streak for Japan's Nikkei. It closes down nearly 44 points. In Europe, Britain's FTSE is trading up just over 28 points, while France's CAC is up about 13 points.
Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:45 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
Still no word on the fate of a CNN producer this morning. Gunmen abducted Riad Ali yesterday while he was working in the Gaza Strip.
In Dubai, officials are still trying to find out why half- finished building at the airport collapsed. Five construction workers were killed, a dozen others hurt.
In money news, the price of crude oil has hit $50 a barrel in overseas trading, and that would be a record. Blame it on Hurricane Ivan, which disrupted much of the oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
In culture, Jay Leno is leaving "The Tonight Show." Actually, he isn't leaving the show until his current contract runs out in 2009. But NBC already named late-night host Conan O'Brien as Leno's successor.
In sports, Olympic champion gymnast Paul Hamm pleaded his case to the sports world's highest court in an effort to keep his gold medal. The controversy is over a judging error that wrongly docked a South Korean a tenth of a point. A ruling is expected sometime in the next two weeks.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COSTELLO: Those are the latest headlines for you.
Can you hear me now? A transit police officer in the Washington area apparently heard enough. He arrested a pregnant woman for talking too loudly on her cell phone.
Joining us now, Judlyne Lilly from Washington radio's WTOP.
Good morning, Judlyne.
JUDLYNE LILLY, WTOP NEWS ANCHOR: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: You know, I can hear many people cheering, because it's so irritating when people talk loudly on their cell phone.
LILLY: Yes, it is, but not when the police officer puts his knee in your back and you're five months' pregnant.
COSTELLO: Ooh!
LILLY: That's...
COSTELLO: So, tell us exactly what happened.
LILLY: Well...
COSTELLO: She's in a Metro station.
LILLY: She's in -- well, actually she is not in the Metro station per se. She is outside about to go catch a bus. She's on her cell phone, according to the report. This is where everybody agrees, and then the story diverges.
The officer says she was speaking loudly, and that not only was she speaking loudly, but that she was cursing loudly. And this is what made him ask her to please speak softly and to stop using obscenities. And that's where the stories diverge.
She told him, you can't tell me how loud to speak on my cell phone, and he grabbed her, apparently -- this is according to her story -- and they had a little tussle. And he arrested her and put -- I don't know if he put handcuffs on her, but he did arrest her. And she was taken to a cell, where she stayed for three hours until she was released.
COSTELLO: Well, what was the charge?
LILLY: Well, she was charged with disorderly conduct in some ways, because -- well, the actual charge was that she was just basically being too loud, and that she was disturbing the peace.
COSTELLO: I understand. So, it wasn't like a pro or negative cell phone kind of thing. It was just because she was loud and allegedly cursing.
LILLY: Loud and allegedly cursing. Now, let me give you a little insight into dealing with the Metro police here. When Metro opened in the late '70s -- I believe it was '76 -- the rules were don't eat, don't drink, don't smoke, don't litter. Now, that's the same as the New York City subway has, too, but you see how well that works.
In the Washington area, they were adamant that the system would be clean all the time, and if anybody has ever ridden the Metros in Washington, they are. But it also comes at a cost. If you get caught with your bagel and you're just nipping at it, they will give you a ticket. If you are sitting on the train eating, they will give you a ticket. If you give them (INAUDIBLE), they will take you.
It is very, very difficult -- they are very strict with those rules. And they've gotten in trouble for arresting a 12-year-old girl for eating a French fry. They arrested a woman for -- ticketed a woman for eating a candy bar. It's just the way the system has always been, and they have always been criticized for that. And they have also been criticized because they can't seem to get you where you need to go at the time that you need to get there.
COSTELLO: And therein lies the problem.
LILLY: And therein lies the problem.
COSTELLO: Yes. Judlyne Lilly, thank you very much, joining us from WTOP in Washington, D.C.
I'm telling you, though, that talking loudly on the cell phone is irritating.
It's going to get uglier before it gets better. Coming up, is America's most infamous volcano about to blow again?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: After the mountain blew, this was just gray up here. It was just totally -- I mean, it was just barren.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Memories of the last Mount St. Helens eruption and the outlook for possibly the next one.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: The question may be: If Mount St. Helens will erupt -- oh, I read that wrong. I'm so sorry. Mount St. Helens in Washington State, there is a danger it's going to erupt again. And with the current rise in underground activity, the time may be near.
CNN's Kimberly Osias looks back at the vent that made the mountain famous.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was 1980 when Mount St. Helens finally blew 80,000 feet into the sky, flattening a wooded area the size of Chicago and killing 57 people.
TODD CULLINGS, U.S. FOREST SERVICE: This landslide came down. Gases inside the molten rock rapidly expanded.
OSIAS: It was one of those watershed events, etched forever in our collective memory.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: After the mountain blew, this was just gray up here. It was just totally -- I mean, it was just barren.
OSIAS (on camera): Almost two and a half decades later, the ecosystem is still healing. Most of the animals have returned. The trees are a little bit slower. Here, you can clearly see where the timber companies have replanted, and in the distance behind me where Mother Nature is still struggling to rebuild.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I bet when we hit the 50th anniversary of the eruption, people will be struggling to understand the story just because it's going to so well-hidden by the return of the forest.
OSIAS (voice over): But there are some areas where trees still lie like matchsticks, part of the spectacle that draws a million visitors a year.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you want to have a really good idea of how big this landslide was, just put your fingers up even with each slope of Mount St. Helens. Where your fingertips meet together, that shows you where the summit of the volcano used to be.
OSIAS: Some visitors keep coming back.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Look, there's still some dead trees standing.
OSIAS: For Sylvia Flores Milson (ph), it's important not to forget.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I want them to see how we all got through this. We all -- and it all came out OK.
OSIAS: The crater still steams. And scientists monitor Mount St. Helens daily. They say it's not a question of whether it will blow again, but when.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If it's going to be in another year, 2 years, 10 years, or more, certainly it will.
OSIAS: For now, Mount St. Helens looms as a graphic reminder of nature's raw power.
Kimberly Osias, CNN, Mount St. Helens, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE) COSTELLO: If you just can't wait for more news on Mount St. Helens, you can actually log on and watch the mountain. The Forestry Service has set up a camera to shoot images of the volcano around the clock. The Web address is kind of long, so get a pencil. Go ahead.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Got it.
COSTELLO: Get that pencil. Look at the bottom of the screen. There it is. We looked on the Web cam and it's nothing but black out there now because it's kind of dark in Washington.
MARCIANO: It's dark. It's dark. But it's a cool mountain -- or half-mountain to look at.
COSTELLO: It is cool, isn't it?
MARCIANO: Actually, if you stand at the rim -- I was fortunate enough to climb a few years ago -- it's just amazing to look down in the crater. And you see the power of a volcano eruption and how the trees are just still knocked down to this day.
COSTELLO: Well, I wouldn't want to be up there now.
MARCIANO: No.
COSTELLO: No.
We're going to be right back. Stick around.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Chad is on his way back from Melbourne, Florida.
MARCIANO: Yes, after chasing yet another -- we need to get you down in the middle of the hurricane with Chad. That would be a great morning show.
COSTELLO: I've covered hurricanes before, and they're not fun. I mean, they're scary and uncomfortable because there's no place to sleep. So, I know all about that.
MARCIANO: Yes, I think it's time we do that.
COSTELLO: And I think Chad can go.
MARCIANO: He'll be back tomorrow.
COSTELLO: Well, thanks for being with us, Rob Marciano.
MARCIANO: Enjoyed it.
COSTELLO: I'm Carol Costello. Chad, again, will be back tomorrow.
"AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.
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