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American Morning
The First Presidential Debate; Mount St. Helens May be Ready to Blow
Aired September 30, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. One day in a campaign that can turn the tide in an entire election. Today, the first presidential debate, we'll lay out what each candidate must do to win later tonight.
Also, breaking news from Iraq: At least 33 reported dead, killed as insurgents go after U.S. convoy. Waiting now on word of any U.S. casualties.
And a volcano warning: Scientists say Mount St. Helens could erupt any day now. All ahead here on AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING. Live from the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, here's Bill Hemmer.
And welcome as the day breaks here in Southern Florida, a hot and steamy day too, in Coral Gables. University of Miami our location today.
George Bush and John Kerry both have a chance for a breakthrough moment later tonight. We'll make the debate our priority as we go throughout the next three hours this morning. Giving you a look today what the campaigns are doing, the strategies on both sides and the mood here in South Florida, part of the country that played such a huge role in the election of four years ago.
Also we'll talk to Republican Rudy Giuliani this hour, to Democrat Madeleine Albright, get both sides for what each man has to do later tonight. So we'll have it all for you here in Miami.
Now, my colleague, my partner, Heidi Collins back in New York.
And, Heidi, good morning to you back there.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you as well. Beautiful shot behind you there, Bill. We'll get back to you in just a few minutes.
Also this morning, it is settled. Martha Stewart will go to a Alderson Federal Prison Camp in West Virginia within the next week. The prison's nickname, "Camp Cupcake." OK. Jeffrey Toobin is going to talk to us a little bit more about that. We're going to speak to him about what kind of place Alderson is, and what life will be like for Martha Stewart there.
Interesting, don't you think, Jack Cafferty? JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Can you spiel "deliverance?" West Virginia, yes.
There's a theory that the reason people go to automobile races has nothing to do with watching the cars go fast; they're hoping to see a crash. A lot of people will probably watch the debate for the same reason. We'll take a look at that in a couple of minutes.
COLLINS: Very interesting analogy.
All right, Jack, thanks so much for that.
Before we get back to bill in Miami we do have some breaking news to get to out of Iraq this morning. There have been a series of explosions in Baghdad. At least one U.S. soldier is among the dead.
Brent Sadler is standing by live in Baghdad to give us the very latest on the situation.
Brent, good morning.
BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi.
Another deadly day in Baghdad. As you mentioned, a U.S. soldier killed in a car bomb attack at an area known as Abu Ghraib, the western part of the Iraqi capital, a car bomb attack that also killed two Iraqi policemen in that explosion.
In the last few hours, though, a series of more car bomb explosions against a variety of targets in and around Baghdad.
One of the heaviest casualties tolls appears to be coming out of a blast a couple hours or so ago that took place when a ribbon-cutting ceremony was taking place in the western district of Baghdad by Iraqi officials, commemorating the reconstruction of a water pumping plant.
At about the same time, we understand a U.S. convoy was in the vicinity, not clear if the car bomb was aimed at the convoy or the ribbon-cutting ceremony. But certainly heavy loss of life, mounting casualties coming from that scene. More details will emerge later this day.
About a kilometer, less than half a mile away from that blast, yet another blast against a checkpoint manned by U.S. and Iraqi security forces. This amid other attacks against Fallujah by U.S. war planes, against insurgent strongholds. This part of a strong counter insurgency offensive that's now under way to try and create better security conditions here in Iraq ahead of elections, four months from now -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Security still such a huge issue.
All right, Brent Sadler, thanks so much for that this morning.
Bill, back to you now in Miami.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi, thanks.
Senator John Kerry and President Bush go before the country later tonight, their first debate in this campaign, first of three for these two men, both candidates arriving in Florida yesterday before the big event; 33 days to go now until election 2004. John Kerry attending a rally in Ft. Lauderdale after departing Wisconsin where he got ready for that debate. President Bush arrived at McDill Air Force Base and took time off from debate preparations to survey damage left by Hurricane Jeanne.
A new CNN/"USA Today/Gallup poll shows President Bush with a slight edge here in Florida. Among registered voters Bush hold as five point lead. Among people considered likely to vote, that lead widens to 9 percentage points. The poll also finds Florida voters expect the president to do better in tonight's debate. They give Mr. Bush a seven point edge over Senator Kerry. Ralph Nader, who is not participating later tonight, picked up 2 percent in that same survey.
Now the political stakes. They are high for both candidates getting ready to face off tonight. With us from Sarasota, Florida, talking about the president's debate strategy, the former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, with me now.
And good morning to you. And good to have you on our program.
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: Good morning. Thanks you very much.
HEMMER: Madeleine Albright is going to follow you in a moment. She wrote a piece in "The New York Times" today. In part, she asked the following question to George Bush, on the screen for our viewers: "How has the Iraqi war made us safer, if it transformed Iraq from a place whose military was surrounded and contained into what you have repeatedly called the central front in the war on terror?"
How will the president answer that question, if queried tonight.
GIULIANI: Well, I think that is a major difference between John Kerry and the president. Under John Kerry, Saddam Hussein would still be in charge in Iraq, although he has taken diametrically opposed position in that. When the war started, he was in favor of it. When Saddam Hussein was removed, he said that the removal and the victory was brilliant. Now he says he's against that, and that was a mistake; we should have left Saddam Hussein there.
I mean, the world is safer because we removed the pillar of support of Saddam Hussein. The administration that Madeleine Albright served made regime change in Iraq a priority of United States foreign policy. And I mean, the only difference was Bill Clinton was in favor of removing Saddam Hussein, George Bush accomplished it. So I think this is a...
HEMMER: Senator Kerry, though, will say -- and I apologize for the interruption, but Senator Kerry will say Iraq has been a diversion on the war on terror. How do you respond to that? GIULIANI: Well, he didn't say that when he voted for it. He didn't say that in 1998 when he also agreed it was a major priority to remove Saddam Hussein. He didn't say it when he thought it was politically popular to take the opposite position.
The problem for Senator Kerry is he has 10 different positions on Iraq and he changes them virtually every day. I mean, in the last week, he's changed them twice. So I can find a position of Senator Kerry that agrees completely with mine and with President Bush's, and then I can find one that's diametrically opposed. Hardly the characteristic of a leader in time of war. I mean, just the opposite of what you need in time of war. I mean, during the Civil War, people were very angry at Abraham Lincoln. And there were draft riots in New York. But we needed a leader that could stick wit and protect America, and that's what we need now.
HEMMER: Let me go to the debate later tonight, a lot of restrictions set out here on the screen for our viewers. Have a look at this. Only rhetorical questions, no direct questions between the two men. No pledges. No walking around the podium or use of props. Lecterns are to be 50 inches high, placed 10 feet from each other, stools of equal height with backs and footrests. Do you feel voters are getting a fair shake on these debates, given these restrictions and rules?
GIULIANI: Well, you know, yes, they're going to hear both candidates. I'm laughing because that's a product of lawyers on both sides. And you know, I got -- I was with Jim Bakker yesterday at his institute speaking, and I got a chance to read some of the document, and it's more complicated than most contract than I've seen or written. So this is a product of lawyers sitting there and debating it.
The American people are going to get the two candidates for president standing up there for 90 minutes answering what I assume are going to be very, very tough questions. And they're going to see two very diametrically opposed positions on foreign policy, as well as styles. And I think two diametrically opposed, you know, styles of leadership, one that's very steady and determined and willing to stand up to criticism, and a man who has taken, you know, an incredibly contradictory set of positions on war and peace, you know, for quite some time now.
HEMMER: All right, Rudy Giuliani, thank you. My guest this morning in Sarasota, Florida.
GIULIANI: Thank you.
HEMMER: Back here in Miami, the former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright joins me here.
And good morning to you.
MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, SR. ADVISER, KERRY CAMPAIGN: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: It's hot and steamy here.
ALBRIGHT: It certainly is.
HEMMER: The president said earlier in the week, "I believe the wisest use of American strength is to advance freedom." Disagree with that?
ALBRIGHT: New York City you but I think it depends on how do you it. And what the president has done has created a situation in Iraq that is more dangerous than what we face before, and he took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan. That's where the people who hit the Twin Towers came from.
And I think what we need from the president is some truth about what is really happening in Iraq, where this morning there were car bombs again. More Americans have died in each month, and I think it's a mess. And that's what we need the president to tell us.
HEMMER: And ultimately if your man is to prevail in this election with 33 days to go, he has to draw a distinction between what is happening in Iraq and what Senator Kerry can do differently. Can you sit here today in 90 seconds or less, as the senator will have to do tonight, and draw that difference.
ALBRIGHT: I think the difference is that President Kerry would really make this an international effort and listen ton what the other countries have to say.
HEMMER: Who's going to come in?
ALBRIGHT: I mean, we have heard consistently for the past week that France says forget about it. Germany says there will not be one German soldier who steps foot in Iraq.
HEMMER: Well, I think that as a diplomat, I can tell you, they're going to say anything different right now, because they don't want to have any influence on our elections. And I truly do think that Senator Kerry with a completely different approach, not this arrogant approach that we have at this moment, where everybody needs to do where we tell them to, I think that will help.
But this is a mess, Bill. And it's a mess that's been created by an administration that is not telling us the truth about what is happening on the ground. There is no sense of reality about the problems. And they have made Iraq the central part of terror, that's for sure. Because everybody who hates us is now gathering in Iraq. And it was a place that Saddam Hussein, I'm glad he's gone, but he was contained. And he is now the sparks from Iraq are flying everywhere.
HEMMER: But just to be clear, you are saying here that if John Kerry wins on November 2nd, the Western European allies and Russia that did not support this was will come onboard, is that right?
ALBRIGHT: I think there's a better chance they will get involved and that others also will get involved, and that we can get the United Nations protected enough to hold these elections. HEMMER: Nice to see you.
ALBRIGHT: Good to see you, Bill.
HEMMER: Madeleine Albright, former secretary of state.
ALBRIGHT: Very nice to see you.
HEMMER: Rudy Giuliani a short time ago in Sarasota.
To our viewers at home, stay with CNN. Later tonight, 7:00 Eastern, our coverage begins then. The debate gets underway at 9:00 Eastern, and full coverage then after there.
Much more from Miami in a moment. Back to Heidi now in New York with more -- Heidi.
COLLINS: All right, Bill, thanks so much.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come this morning, winter just around the corner. Now there's word you could be in for a case of sticker shock when it comes to your home heating bill. Andy Serwer's "Minding Your Business" on that.
Also ahead, one down, one more to go for the history-making SpaceShipOne. But yesterday's flight was not exactly smooth. We're going to talk about that.
And, also, Martha Stewart living, in prison. We're finding out what life behind bars will be like for the domestic diva, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: You're looking at the scene, live from Miami now. We're going to see a lot more of this later on tonight at 9:00, a debate. The first debate will begin there. We know it's hot and steamy, 90 percent humidity, Chad said.
But according to all the rules, I know that the temperature will be carefully controlled tonight, just one of the rules of all the debates tonight. Again, more on that today. Bill is there. We'll have more coming up in just a little bit.
Meanwhile, though, Martha Stewart has a new home address. Beginning next week, Stewart will serve five months at this minimum- security prison for women in Alderson, West Virginia. You see it there. She was hoping to do her time, though, at a prison close to her Connecticut home or in Florida, but the requests were denied.
Senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin with us from Chicago now to talk about Martha's new digs, if you will.
Yes, so this was like her third choice. What happened? JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SR. LEGAL ANALYST: Well, this is Martha Stewart's new life. You don't get what you want necessarily in prison. The prisons are generally overcrowded. Alderson is the biggest women's prison in the federal system. It's certainly the best known to those of us who were in the law enforcement business. It's no surprise that that's where she wound up.
COLLINS: Yes, Tell us a little more about this place, though, as we look at the pictures here. No bars, no razor wire surrounding the camp, and the nickname, "Camp Cupcake."
TOOBIN: Camp Cupcake. You know, it looks sort of like a cross between an especially austere college campus and a military barracks. There are no bars. It doesn't look threatening. It's actually very close to the Greenbriar Resort, a famous resort where I'm sure all of her visitors will stay. It's really not a bad place. It's traditionally been a place where women have been able to control a lot of their lives, compared to other federal prisons.
In many respects, it's better than Danbury. It's lower security than Danbury. It's just a lot farther from Martha's 90-year-old mother and all of her friends.
COLLINS: Right, so what about the other people that she'll be serving her time with, the other criminals. What kind of women go there?
TOOBIN: Overwhelmingly low-level nonviolent narcotics offenders. There are not many white collar criminals among women in prison. There just simply aren't that many. The term in the system is drug mules, people who got caught carrying drug for their boyfriends. Overwhelmingly, there will be narcotic offenders, usually much younger than Martha. Martha's in her mid 60s. There are very few people in prison at that age. They'll be overwhelmingly in their 20s and 30s.
COLLINS: Let's talk just for a minute about what Martha actually said on the record about this prison. Here it is now: "While I had hoped to be designated to a facility closer to my family" -- as we have said -- "and more accessible to my appellate attorneys, I am pleased that the Bureau of Prisons has designated me so quickly to FPC Alderson. I look forward to getting this behind me and to vigorously pursuing my appeal."
What does say to you? I mean, we she was anxious to get this under way.
TOOBIN: You know, I think she is now in a mode of accepting what's ever given to her. The advice that everybody gets when you go to prison is, don't make waves, don't complain. And I think she's trying to follow the advice. It will be interesting to see if she can do that once she's in prison.
But you know, Martha Stewart is tough. One of the interesting things about this prison is that lights out are at 8:45 p.m. This is a woman who told me that she sleeps three or four hours a night. So what she's going to do between 8:45 and 6 a.m. when there's wake-up, I don't know. But she's just going to have to adjust.
COLLINS: Maybe she will come up with some other ideas, like a different magazine, or maybe just read a lot of magazines.
TOOBIN: You can bet she's going to do a lot of work, a lot of reading and a lot of writing.
COLLINS: I bet you're probably right.
Jeffrey Toobin, nice to see you. And thanks so much this morning.
TOOBIN: OK, Heidi.
COLLINS: The designer of SpaceShipOne is trying to figure out if he'll launch a second flight for Monday to win the $10 million Ansari X Prize. Yesterday SpaceShipOne was successfully launched from an airplane, but the craft began corkscrewing violently. It reached the edge of space, nearly 63 miles up, but designer Burt Rutan wants to know what caused the tumble. So despite those rolls, though, pilot Mike Melvill say it was a great ride.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE MELVILL, SPACESHIPONE PILOT: It seemed like a softer start and then great acceleration, a real smooth ride until I got about 160,000 feet, then it gets a little bit rough as the engine runs through a little roughness, and then the engine shuts down, and it's real smooth, real quiet and a beautiful, beautiful view.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: The X Prize goes to the team whose spacecraft makes it into suborbit twice in two weeks.
Coming up in our final hour, at 9:00 Eastern, we'll talk to Melvill about his dramatic flight. And, boy, that it was.
For now, though, we head back to Miami and once again, Bill.
HEMMER: Let me tell you one of the great things about being back in Florida, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes.
HEMMER: Everything's beautiful. We changed our set around a little bit here. So the lake here on campus is going to be our backdrop here. You'll see a fountain fire up a bit later today. It's going to be really...
COLLINS: Wow.
HEMMER: By the way, the swim team was in the pool an hour and a half ago, by the way, getting ready.
In a moment here, Carlos Watson joins us, talking about three things each man has to do tonight to be successful. Find out which one he believes needs to make sure he stays humble. Back in a moment live here, the University of Miami, right after this, on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: We've been talking about this one for a while. Oil prices, and they are hanging around $50 a barrel, but home heating bills could be giving many people a chill. Those are going to go up likely.
Andy Serwer, "Minding Your Business" on both of these.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes, sorry to be the bearer of this kind of news, Heidi. Just as we're getting used to $2 a gallon gasoline, other problems on the energy front for Americans. This has to do with heating bills this winter. And I'll tell you something, the price of heating oil and natural gas has been going up, up, up. Heating oil is $1.38 a gallon now, up from 74 cents a year ago. I mean, that's just huge.
Natural gas prices, over 50 percent of Americans get their heating from a natural gas. Look at that. These are measured, by the way, in British million thermal units. Now you really don't have to know that. The point is, you see the spike there on the end. You've gone from 5.70 a week ago to 6.90 per British million thermal unit, Which means you're going to be paying more.
The real determinant here, of course, is the weather. I mean, if it's a cold winter, these babies are going to go up even more. Supplies are very tight. And right now, the experts out there don't see much relief. So not a good thing for the economy, of course, either.
COLLINS: Not a good combination, that's for sure.
SERWER: No.
COLLINS: BTUs.
SERWER: BTUs.
COLLINS: I know BTUs. I didn't know...
CAFFERTY: That's British thermal units.
COLLINS: And now for "The Cafferty File" and the Question of the Day -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: The debates, which begin tonight, make or break a run for the White House. There are no do-overs tonight, can't say timeout, can we do that -- take another take on that. Screw up, and it's in the history books forever. Until the end of your days, you'll be known as the dolt who blew it when the chips were down.
It's not exactly winner take all, but it's close. Here's the question, which candidate has more to lose in tonight's debate? I really hope there's a train wreck of some kind. I hope there is some out of control moment.
SERWER: Someone stands up and says, if I were going to ask you this question...
CAFFERTY: Drools down the front of their shirt, or falls down.
COLLINS: Or it's 73 degrees versus 72 degrees.
CAFFERTY: Yes, turn the heat up, watch one of them, you know, lose five pounds in 90 minutes perspiring. I want to watch -- I want to see that.
SERWER: You're rooting for the car crash that you're saying.
CAFFERTY: I know about all the -- I want to see a wreck, a train wreck.
COLLINS: All right. Well somebody who is going to be watching those debates very closely, obviously, the first one tonight in Miami, is, of course, Bill Hemmer who is there.
Hey, Bill.
HEMMER: Hey, no dolts allowed, huh, Jack?
Thank you, Heidi.
In a moment here in Florida, it's tough to come back to the state and not consider what happened four years ago in that recount. You can't come to Florida without talking about hanging chad and butterfly ballots. AMERICAN MORNING on the road in Miami, a look back and see what has changed now four years later.
Back in a moment. We're live in Miami, right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Welcome back, everyone. We're live here, University of Miami campus, our special election coverage. The first presidential debate goes down later tonight, and a whole lot to talk about in the next 30 minutes, including the birthday guy right here, Carlos Watson next to me.
In a moment, Carlos tells us what each man needs to do tonight to win this thing.
Also Kelly Wallace standing stage left.
Hello, Kelly. Good morning to you.
In a moment, she'll look at the candidates from a rather unique perspective. How would the big image firms on Madison Avenue rate each campaign for selling its particular brand, brand Bush and brand Kerry. Kelly has that in a moment. Brand Collins back in New York. Hey, Heidi, good morning to you.
COLLINS: Yes, there's a brand. Nobody's going to buy that.
All right, Bill, thanks so much.
Also coming up, warnings now being issued in Washington State that Mount St. Helens could erupt in the next few days. How big an eruption are we talking about here? We're going to speak with the editor-in-chief of "National Geographic" to find out more on that.
In the meantime, we're going to check on the stories now in the news once again with Rick Sanchez.
Rick, not very good news coming out of Iraq this morning.
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: And interestingly, Heidi. It's happening in a place that's been in the news for quite a long time, for different reasons though. At least one U.S. soldier, as we understand, has been killed in the Abu Ghraib neighborhood of Baghdad. A string of explosions rocking southern Baghdad within the past couple of hours. News agencies are reporting at least 33 people killed. So far, dozens have been injured. That number may be as high as 50.
In Fallujah, U.S. forces say that they struck a suspected terrorist safehouse. At least three people were killed in that incident.
Here's a story. Starting today, visits from 27 more countries can prepare for longer immigration lines. Visitors from countries like England and France who can enter the United States without a visa will now be photographed and fingerprinted when they arrive. The information is then cross checked against law enforcement watchlists. These changes affect some 13 million tourists who enter the United States each and every year.
Cleveland Indians pitcher Kyle Denney is going to join his team once again today. Denney was injured last night when somebody fired shots at the team bus on a Kansas City highway. The rest of the team made it safely to the airport and boarded a plane bound for Minneapolis early this morning. Denney is said to be doing very, very well.
I take you now back to my hometown. That's where my friend Bill Hemmer is standing by.
Bill, what you got?
HEMMER: Hey, thank you, Rick.
Tough town there in Kansas City, huh. Wow.
Listen, Rick, you know all too well what happened in the state four years ago. I spent 37 days in Tallahassee. Every day and almost every hour this story seemed to change. Who would be the next president of the United States? Looking back now, it's tough to come back to the state and not think about what went down four years ago.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER (voice-over): In the newsrooms across America, it is late on election night, Tuesday November 7th.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.
HEMMER: But by early Wednesday morning the networks make an announcement.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: CNN declares that George Walker Bush has won Florida's 25 electoral votes.
HEMMER: Bush's slim lead in Florida triggers an automatic recount.
Thursday, November 9th, Gore seeks a manual recount in selected counties. And the battle is on.
Saturday, November 11th, now leading by a slim 327 votes, Bush tries to block the recount. Two days later, a Miami federal judge blocks bushes request.
For the next two weeks, there will be more court decisions, more votes counted and recounted, and endless confusion. And more controversy, too. Did the actual ballots confound people in the voting booth?
After a long Thanksgiving weekend, Sunday, November 26th, deadline day for the final recount.
Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris certifies the vote.
KATHERINE HARRIS, FLA. SECY. OF STATE: I hereby declare Governor George W. Bush the winner of Florida's 25 electoral votes.
HEMMER: But the next day brings another court challenge. Now Friday, December 1st, votes are still being contested. Bush opens an office for his transition team, and the Supreme Court is still hearing arguments.
Until Tuesday, December 12th. The Supreme Court rules the recount is unconstitutional, and time has run out.
Wednesday, December 13th, Gore concedes.
AL GORE (D), FMR. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Just moments ago, I spoke with George W. Bush and congratulating him on becoming the 43rd president of the United States.
HEMMER: Bush addresses the nation.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: After a difficult election, we must put politics behind us and work together to make the promise of America available for every one of our citizens.
HEMMER: Thirty-six days after it voted, America finally got its 43rd president.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: As we all head into Tallahassee the 8th of November, that Wednesday morning, we all thought we'd be home by the weekend. Little did we know we'd still be working in mid-December waiting for that ultimate announcement.
Now four years later, debate No. 1, what does each man have to do tonight? Carlos Watson, our analyst this morning with us here, joins us for some insight on this.
Good morning to you.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. Good to see you.
HEMMER: John Kerry, No. 1, needs to be clear and confident in his style.
WATSON: Unequivocally. Not just substantively, but stylistically, John Kerry's got to say, I can be president. And I think that happens not only based on what he says, but think about some of the nonverbal cues, what he dresses like, how strong he stands, making sure he doesn't wince or sigh. All those will be important.
HEMMER: Critique Iraq and bush's foreign policy judgment.
WATSON: Right, so I think it's important, Bill, that not only do you hear critique of Iraq, because that's looking backwards, but you fundamentally have to say, I question the president's judgment and his foreign policy making skills. Whether it will end up in Iran, North Korea, Syria or some other hotspot; you can trust this guy.
HEMMER: The third thing you mention is the vision thing. Explain that.
WATSON: Now remember, that was father Bush, Bush 41 who used to say the vision thing. But I think what's important for John Kerry here is say, here's what life would be like under a Kerry administration. He's got to connect with people. And part of what is going to be important there are anecdotes. Remember Ronald Reagan used to be great at that. I think he's going to have to do it with anecdotes, give people a real sense of what life would be like under him.
HEMMER: Let's go to the other side. President Bush, first thing you say, portray John Kerry as a flip flopper.
WATSON: Got to continue. And in fact, just yesterday, John Kerry acknowledged that the Bush-Cheney campaign has been very effective in doing that. And I think once again, President Bush, who often is criticized for not being detail-oriented, has got to point to John Kerry's own words.
HEMMER: Be humble and address the doubts on Iraq. How do you do that effectively?
WATSON: Remember, for a lot of swing voters, they still have questions on Iraq, not just retrospectively, but what's going to go on in the future. I think the president's got to say, things aren't perfect there, I made the best decision I could, and more importantly, I am going to try to figure out a way to stabilize things.
HEMMER: No. 3, you mention a confident wartime president. We have seen that in him to this point.
WATSON: And again, part of the way the president does that is not only, you know, I won't ask for a permission slip, but sometimes with a little bit of humor, too, looking confident, looking calm, looking relaxed.
HEMMER: All right. So we see each side the three things for John Kerry and the three things for George Bush. On the issue front, what do you anticipate hearing on that tonight?
WATSON: You know, I think two issues could end up standing out, Bill, and I would stay tuned for these issues. First and foremost, when do you use preemptive power? When is it okay? Do you do it unilaterally? Do you do it multilaterally? I think that's issue's going to be joined (ph). And the second issue, which could be a sleeper issue, the draft. Watch whether or not the issue of the draft comes up and how both men handle it. I think both could be very interesting.
HEMMER: Talk to you later this morning.
WATSON: See you soon.
HEMMER: And happy birthday, by the way.
WATSON: In my hometown no less.
HEMMER: Yesterday.
WATSON: We're a mile from my elementary school.
HEMMER: Nice to see you, Carlos.
WATSON: Good to see you.
HEMMER: Who wins later tonight isn't the only factor certainly. There's also the image each candidate presents, and Carlos touched on that. How they handle themselves while facing each other down.
Here is Kelly Wallace on that this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's out of touch.
BUSH: My opponent has had seven or eight different positions.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Think of President Bush and Senator Kerry as two brands vying to become No. 1.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Brand Kerry and brand Bush.
WALLACE: And right now, according to these Madison Avenue image makers...
JOSH ROGERS, ADVERTISING EXECUTIVE: Senator John Kerry I think has done less for the job in terms of communicating.
WALLACE: So their first tip for the Bostonian: Make an impression.
LINDA KAPLAN THALER, ADVERTISING EXECUTIVE: He has to have some great one-liners. He has to have water cooler talk for the next day.
ROGERS: Something people will talk about days on end afterwards.
WALLACE: Like this memorable moment in 1984.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RONALD REAGAN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience.
(LAUGHTER)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALLACE: Tip No. 2, for both men, don't let them see you sweat, literally.
ROGERS: Do not sigh, obviously.
WALLACE: Ala Al Gore in 2000. Think more of Bill Clinton's ease in 1992.
THALER: Kerry needs to do more with his body language, a smile, more smiles actually. Lose the tan, OK. If you're going to be president, you don't have time to get a tan.
WALLACE: And finally, lighten up.
THALER: You know, these are tough times, but we want Marcus Welby. We want somebody to tell us it's going to be OK.
WALLACE: For Mr. Bush, the main advice, don't muddy the brand, and...
THALER: Do not lose your temper.
WALLACE: The senator's challenge, bolstering brand Kerry with men.
ROGERS: Most males look at a candidate in terms who they'd like to have a beer with.
WALLACE: And with women.
THALER: Whoever does a better job of convincing the American public that's the brand I want, that's who is going to win.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: And tonight really an advertising executives dream. An audience expected to be in the tens of millions. And, Bill, the image makers we say for tonight the biggest audience expected of all the debates. More important than ever when it comes to the brand.
HEMMER: You have covered politics for years. Of all those soundbites we hang on for years and sometimes decades to come, how many are actually improvised, on the spot, live during the debate?
WALLACE: It's hard to say sort of never. You know, the sense is these aren't spontaneous, that they get lines and lines of possible one-liners from their aides. But the key is, as Ronald Reagan did so beautifully in 1984, make it seem like it's spontaneous, like it just came up in the top of your head. That's the key. We'll see if they do it tonight.
HEMMER: Thank you, Kelly. Kelly Wallace here in Florida.
Also later tonight, our live coverage starts at 7:00 Eastern here on CNN. The debate begins an hour later, sorry, two hours later at 9:00 Eastern Time. Watch AMERICAN MORNING tomorrow for complete debate analysis. Also I'll be in Columbus, Ohio then. We've assembled 24 undecided voters. Electronically, we can gauge their reactions of the hot-button issues later tonight, how they feel about what's being spoken. Also how they feel about the information is delivered and how the candidates look later tonight. Should be fascinating.
You know, Heidi, we hear so much from the surrogates, and the candidates and their surrogates. It will be go to hear from voters. We'll get back to that tomorrow morning. Yes, what about the people? They decide it.
Back to you, Heidi, in New York now.
COLLINS: You know what I give you, about maybe about another hour before you just dive right into that little body of water behind you there. The fountain looks lovely.
HEMMER: Can I tell you something, they just hooked up an air conditioning tube. So we are OK. See you later.
COLLINS: All right. Good to go. All right, Bill, we'll check back in just a little bit.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING now, Bill has more coverage of tonight's debate from the University of Miami.
Plus, if Mount St. Helens blows, how dangerous will it be? Stay with us. We'll talk about it on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Mount St. Helens may be ready to blow. Scientists are predicting a small to moderate eruption in the next few days and have issued a volcanic advisory. Not something I've heard too many times before. But when Mount St. Helens erupted back in 1980, 57 people were killed.
Bill Allen, editor-in-chief for "National Geographic" is in Washington this morning to talk about the new seismic activity and the potential danger.
Mr. Allen, hello, and thanks for being with us this morning.
BILL ALLEN, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC": It's my pleasure. Thank you, Heidi.
COLLINS:As we look at those pictures, how likely do you think it is that this mountain will blow?
ALLEN: I think there's going to be something going on, but I don't think it's going to be like the last time. There was so much pressure last time that it was like a cork being pulled out of a champagne bottle and the whole thing blew up. This time it's more likely to be a little fizzle, or some ash clouds, or maybe a little lava inside the dome, but a small explosion, perhaps.
COLLINS: So how do you know that? I mean, what are we talking about with the new seismic activity? Why does it happen?
ALLEN: Well, the scientists are looking at several things. First of all, they look at the earthquake activity. There's a lot of earthquake activity going on right now, but it's very shallow, about a mile beneath the surface, but they haven't seen the telltale signs of specific gases coming out that would indicate that there's new lava coming up to explode. But they do see that the dome is growing and deforming a little bit. So two out of the three signs for an explosion are there.
And there are no guarantees with volcanoes. You never know exactly what's going to happen, so it's better to be safe in this case.
COLLINS: All right, well, I know that the USGS has also been monitoring St. Helens for these tiny little earthquakes that happen as well. How do you detect those then?
ALLEN: Well, there are seismometers on there that are devices that can even feel like footsteps or rock falls as they're going across the craters. But when have you some kind of movement of the rock sliding down below, that's when you get these registration of earthquakes, and they're having maybe three or four earthquakes per minute there. Most of those, you can't feel, but that's still a lot of earthquakes, and that means there's some kind of movement and something going on down below.
COLLINS: So I'm guessing this would not be considered a surprise to scientists? I mean, really we have been watching this closely, right?
ALLEN: That's right. No, it's one of the most heavily monitored places on the entire planet. There are radio links. So anything that happens, it's immediately transmitted to the University of Washington where they monitor all of the things and put them together into computer models.
COLLINS: And just real quick, many people have gotten tornado warnings before, thunderstorm warnings, how do you warn people specifically that a volcano might erupt?
ALLEN: Well, what do you is you just, you put out a general announcement, and certainly the people who live in that area are very much attuned to that since 1980 and the big eruption. So they've cleaned out some of the area. They've prevented hikers from going.
COLLINS: All right, we're looking at some of those pictures now back from in 1980. I just remember all of the ash, unbelievable.
Bill Allen, we certainly appreciate your time here this morning, from "National Geographic." Once again, thanks so much, Bill.
ALLEN: It's my pleasure.
COLLINS: Still to come now, how will Wall Street react the day of the first presidential debate. Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" on that. He also has a market preview right here, coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: I want to go ahead and get an early preview of the markets now this morning. Andy Serwer, of course, here for that, "Minding Your Business."
SERWER: Yes, yesterday not a bad one. Let's check out what was going on on Wall Street. You can see stocks here that stocks were up very nicely across the board. Nasdaq, in particular, up 1.3 percent. Why, we talked about that Orbitz deal. That helped propel that index. Also GDP numbers were pretty good. And the price of oil dropped. Futures are looking a little bit higher this morning. Maybe we'll see a continuation of that rally.
A couple stocks in the news this morning, Talbot's, or Talby's as some customers call it, some of the customers from Hinga (ph), Massachusetts. Talby's warning that it's sales in September not doing so well, a purveyor of traditional women's clothes, safe to say. COLLINS: Classic.
SERWER: Classic, well classically not doing very well. You can see there by that chart. Another one to watch here, Merck, the pharma giant. Kind of unusual, they're saying they're going to have a 9:00 a.m. press conference here in New York City. The CEO Ray Gilmartin is going to be there. It involves new information, quote, new information on a current product, and Heidi, again, it's unusual when you get a CEO there. They're alerting the media. We don't know. We'll be following that for you.
COLLINS: 9:00 a.m., OK, very good. Thank you, Andy.
Jack here now, as well. Question of the day.
CAFFERTY: Question of the day. Thanks, Heidi.
No do-overs at the presidential debate tonight. Screw up and it's in the history books forever. Until the end of time, you will be known as the dolt who blew it when the chips were down. It's not exactly winner take all, but then it's very close.
The question is, which candidate has more to lose at the debate tonight?
Weldon in Canada writes, "There's so little credibility left between the two candidates, that if the truth is recognized from one candidate, he will be a shoo-in."
Wistar in Flowery Branch, Georgia -- Wistar, is that a real name? Wistar? "Vice President Cheney has the most to lose. No-bid contracts for Halliburton."
Agnes in Veals (ph), "I don't believe either candidate stands to lose anything with all the rules and regulations in place for tonight's show. It's not a debate. It's going to be a moronic display of politics as usual. It's a toss up about what to watch tonight, the debate or maybe a repeat of "The Dukes of Hazzard."
James in Claremont, Illinois, "Bush has the most to lose since he's the sitting president and is supposed to be ahead in polls."
And my friend Reg up there in Thunder Bay, Ontario, "Kerry's biggest fear is he'll forget whether it's an odd day of the month and have the same platform two days in a row, and Bush's fear is that he'll say something intelligent and ruin his entire image."
SERWER: So are they going to do the cutaway shots? Are they going to allow them to do that, do you think?
COLLINS: Well, it's in the rules not to do that, and yesterday we talked a little bit about, you know, the networks saying you can't tell us how to do that. That's sort of a journalistic decision to make. Still waiting to hear about it.
CAFFERTY: And the pool network is Fox, and of course they know a lot about journalism over there.
COLLINS: I'm not going to comment on that. But It will be interesting to see how many people watch the first one and then carry on into the second and third.
CAFFERTY: I just hope there's a train wreck. I want to see a train wreck.
COLLINS: Can I watch this with you?
CAFFERTY: No.
COLLINS: OK. All right, whatever.
We're going to pass it over to someone who is much more friendly, Bill Hemmer.
How are you doing, Bill?
HEMMER: Hey, most days I'm fine.
You know, what's extraordinary about the viewership of these debates, back in 2000 for the first debate, Bush and Gore, they got 47 million viewers. Now it dropped off a little bit, second and third debate got 37 million, off about 10 millions. But still, this is the largest audience to date to see these guys stand next to each other. And as Jack said earlier, make sure you are not -- well, I'll let that go.
In a moment here, foreign policy is the issue. Later tonight, experts say undecided voters will be looking at a more important factor. We'll have a look at that in a moment here.
Also, another reminder, our coverage later tonight kicks off at 7:00 Eastern Time. "ANDERSON" starts then. At 8:00, Wolf and Paula are here. And then the debate starts at 9:00 Eastern, all live, later tonight on CNN.
Back in a moment, live in Miami after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: In a moment here, a little more than a month ago, 33 days and counting now before election 2004. Florida officials already catching a bit of heat from Democrats about potential voting problems again this year. How does Florida's secretary of state respond to those allegations?
COLLINS: We'll talk to her about it after the break here, live in Florida on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 30, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. One day in a campaign that can turn the tide in an entire election. Today, the first presidential debate, we'll lay out what each candidate must do to win later tonight.
Also, breaking news from Iraq: At least 33 reported dead, killed as insurgents go after U.S. convoy. Waiting now on word of any U.S. casualties.
And a volcano warning: Scientists say Mount St. Helens could erupt any day now. All ahead here on AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING. Live from the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, here's Bill Hemmer.
And welcome as the day breaks here in Southern Florida, a hot and steamy day too, in Coral Gables. University of Miami our location today.
George Bush and John Kerry both have a chance for a breakthrough moment later tonight. We'll make the debate our priority as we go throughout the next three hours this morning. Giving you a look today what the campaigns are doing, the strategies on both sides and the mood here in South Florida, part of the country that played such a huge role in the election of four years ago.
Also we'll talk to Republican Rudy Giuliani this hour, to Democrat Madeleine Albright, get both sides for what each man has to do later tonight. So we'll have it all for you here in Miami.
Now, my colleague, my partner, Heidi Collins back in New York.
And, Heidi, good morning to you back there.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you as well. Beautiful shot behind you there, Bill. We'll get back to you in just a few minutes.
Also this morning, it is settled. Martha Stewart will go to a Alderson Federal Prison Camp in West Virginia within the next week. The prison's nickname, "Camp Cupcake." OK. Jeffrey Toobin is going to talk to us a little bit more about that. We're going to speak to him about what kind of place Alderson is, and what life will be like for Martha Stewart there.
Interesting, don't you think, Jack Cafferty? JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Can you spiel "deliverance?" West Virginia, yes.
There's a theory that the reason people go to automobile races has nothing to do with watching the cars go fast; they're hoping to see a crash. A lot of people will probably watch the debate for the same reason. We'll take a look at that in a couple of minutes.
COLLINS: Very interesting analogy.
All right, Jack, thanks so much for that.
Before we get back to bill in Miami we do have some breaking news to get to out of Iraq this morning. There have been a series of explosions in Baghdad. At least one U.S. soldier is among the dead.
Brent Sadler is standing by live in Baghdad to give us the very latest on the situation.
Brent, good morning.
BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi.
Another deadly day in Baghdad. As you mentioned, a U.S. soldier killed in a car bomb attack at an area known as Abu Ghraib, the western part of the Iraqi capital, a car bomb attack that also killed two Iraqi policemen in that explosion.
In the last few hours, though, a series of more car bomb explosions against a variety of targets in and around Baghdad.
One of the heaviest casualties tolls appears to be coming out of a blast a couple hours or so ago that took place when a ribbon-cutting ceremony was taking place in the western district of Baghdad by Iraqi officials, commemorating the reconstruction of a water pumping plant.
At about the same time, we understand a U.S. convoy was in the vicinity, not clear if the car bomb was aimed at the convoy or the ribbon-cutting ceremony. But certainly heavy loss of life, mounting casualties coming from that scene. More details will emerge later this day.
About a kilometer, less than half a mile away from that blast, yet another blast against a checkpoint manned by U.S. and Iraqi security forces. This amid other attacks against Fallujah by U.S. war planes, against insurgent strongholds. This part of a strong counter insurgency offensive that's now under way to try and create better security conditions here in Iraq ahead of elections, four months from now -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Security still such a huge issue.
All right, Brent Sadler, thanks so much for that this morning.
Bill, back to you now in Miami.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi, thanks.
Senator John Kerry and President Bush go before the country later tonight, their first debate in this campaign, first of three for these two men, both candidates arriving in Florida yesterday before the big event; 33 days to go now until election 2004. John Kerry attending a rally in Ft. Lauderdale after departing Wisconsin where he got ready for that debate. President Bush arrived at McDill Air Force Base and took time off from debate preparations to survey damage left by Hurricane Jeanne.
A new CNN/"USA Today/Gallup poll shows President Bush with a slight edge here in Florida. Among registered voters Bush hold as five point lead. Among people considered likely to vote, that lead widens to 9 percentage points. The poll also finds Florida voters expect the president to do better in tonight's debate. They give Mr. Bush a seven point edge over Senator Kerry. Ralph Nader, who is not participating later tonight, picked up 2 percent in that same survey.
Now the political stakes. They are high for both candidates getting ready to face off tonight. With us from Sarasota, Florida, talking about the president's debate strategy, the former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, with me now.
And good morning to you. And good to have you on our program.
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: Good morning. Thanks you very much.
HEMMER: Madeleine Albright is going to follow you in a moment. She wrote a piece in "The New York Times" today. In part, she asked the following question to George Bush, on the screen for our viewers: "How has the Iraqi war made us safer, if it transformed Iraq from a place whose military was surrounded and contained into what you have repeatedly called the central front in the war on terror?"
How will the president answer that question, if queried tonight.
GIULIANI: Well, I think that is a major difference between John Kerry and the president. Under John Kerry, Saddam Hussein would still be in charge in Iraq, although he has taken diametrically opposed position in that. When the war started, he was in favor of it. When Saddam Hussein was removed, he said that the removal and the victory was brilliant. Now he says he's against that, and that was a mistake; we should have left Saddam Hussein there.
I mean, the world is safer because we removed the pillar of support of Saddam Hussein. The administration that Madeleine Albright served made regime change in Iraq a priority of United States foreign policy. And I mean, the only difference was Bill Clinton was in favor of removing Saddam Hussein, George Bush accomplished it. So I think this is a...
HEMMER: Senator Kerry, though, will say -- and I apologize for the interruption, but Senator Kerry will say Iraq has been a diversion on the war on terror. How do you respond to that? GIULIANI: Well, he didn't say that when he voted for it. He didn't say that in 1998 when he also agreed it was a major priority to remove Saddam Hussein. He didn't say it when he thought it was politically popular to take the opposite position.
The problem for Senator Kerry is he has 10 different positions on Iraq and he changes them virtually every day. I mean, in the last week, he's changed them twice. So I can find a position of Senator Kerry that agrees completely with mine and with President Bush's, and then I can find one that's diametrically opposed. Hardly the characteristic of a leader in time of war. I mean, just the opposite of what you need in time of war. I mean, during the Civil War, people were very angry at Abraham Lincoln. And there were draft riots in New York. But we needed a leader that could stick wit and protect America, and that's what we need now.
HEMMER: Let me go to the debate later tonight, a lot of restrictions set out here on the screen for our viewers. Have a look at this. Only rhetorical questions, no direct questions between the two men. No pledges. No walking around the podium or use of props. Lecterns are to be 50 inches high, placed 10 feet from each other, stools of equal height with backs and footrests. Do you feel voters are getting a fair shake on these debates, given these restrictions and rules?
GIULIANI: Well, you know, yes, they're going to hear both candidates. I'm laughing because that's a product of lawyers on both sides. And you know, I got -- I was with Jim Bakker yesterday at his institute speaking, and I got a chance to read some of the document, and it's more complicated than most contract than I've seen or written. So this is a product of lawyers sitting there and debating it.
The American people are going to get the two candidates for president standing up there for 90 minutes answering what I assume are going to be very, very tough questions. And they're going to see two very diametrically opposed positions on foreign policy, as well as styles. And I think two diametrically opposed, you know, styles of leadership, one that's very steady and determined and willing to stand up to criticism, and a man who has taken, you know, an incredibly contradictory set of positions on war and peace, you know, for quite some time now.
HEMMER: All right, Rudy Giuliani, thank you. My guest this morning in Sarasota, Florida.
GIULIANI: Thank you.
HEMMER: Back here in Miami, the former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright joins me here.
And good morning to you.
MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, SR. ADVISER, KERRY CAMPAIGN: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: It's hot and steamy here.
ALBRIGHT: It certainly is.
HEMMER: The president said earlier in the week, "I believe the wisest use of American strength is to advance freedom." Disagree with that?
ALBRIGHT: New York City you but I think it depends on how do you it. And what the president has done has created a situation in Iraq that is more dangerous than what we face before, and he took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan. That's where the people who hit the Twin Towers came from.
And I think what we need from the president is some truth about what is really happening in Iraq, where this morning there were car bombs again. More Americans have died in each month, and I think it's a mess. And that's what we need the president to tell us.
HEMMER: And ultimately if your man is to prevail in this election with 33 days to go, he has to draw a distinction between what is happening in Iraq and what Senator Kerry can do differently. Can you sit here today in 90 seconds or less, as the senator will have to do tonight, and draw that difference.
ALBRIGHT: I think the difference is that President Kerry would really make this an international effort and listen ton what the other countries have to say.
HEMMER: Who's going to come in?
ALBRIGHT: I mean, we have heard consistently for the past week that France says forget about it. Germany says there will not be one German soldier who steps foot in Iraq.
HEMMER: Well, I think that as a diplomat, I can tell you, they're going to say anything different right now, because they don't want to have any influence on our elections. And I truly do think that Senator Kerry with a completely different approach, not this arrogant approach that we have at this moment, where everybody needs to do where we tell them to, I think that will help.
But this is a mess, Bill. And it's a mess that's been created by an administration that is not telling us the truth about what is happening on the ground. There is no sense of reality about the problems. And they have made Iraq the central part of terror, that's for sure. Because everybody who hates us is now gathering in Iraq. And it was a place that Saddam Hussein, I'm glad he's gone, but he was contained. And he is now the sparks from Iraq are flying everywhere.
HEMMER: But just to be clear, you are saying here that if John Kerry wins on November 2nd, the Western European allies and Russia that did not support this was will come onboard, is that right?
ALBRIGHT: I think there's a better chance they will get involved and that others also will get involved, and that we can get the United Nations protected enough to hold these elections. HEMMER: Nice to see you.
ALBRIGHT: Good to see you, Bill.
HEMMER: Madeleine Albright, former secretary of state.
ALBRIGHT: Very nice to see you.
HEMMER: Rudy Giuliani a short time ago in Sarasota.
To our viewers at home, stay with CNN. Later tonight, 7:00 Eastern, our coverage begins then. The debate gets underway at 9:00 Eastern, and full coverage then after there.
Much more from Miami in a moment. Back to Heidi now in New York with more -- Heidi.
COLLINS: All right, Bill, thanks so much.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come this morning, winter just around the corner. Now there's word you could be in for a case of sticker shock when it comes to your home heating bill. Andy Serwer's "Minding Your Business" on that.
Also ahead, one down, one more to go for the history-making SpaceShipOne. But yesterday's flight was not exactly smooth. We're going to talk about that.
And, also, Martha Stewart living, in prison. We're finding out what life behind bars will be like for the domestic diva, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: You're looking at the scene, live from Miami now. We're going to see a lot more of this later on tonight at 9:00, a debate. The first debate will begin there. We know it's hot and steamy, 90 percent humidity, Chad said.
But according to all the rules, I know that the temperature will be carefully controlled tonight, just one of the rules of all the debates tonight. Again, more on that today. Bill is there. We'll have more coming up in just a little bit.
Meanwhile, though, Martha Stewart has a new home address. Beginning next week, Stewart will serve five months at this minimum- security prison for women in Alderson, West Virginia. You see it there. She was hoping to do her time, though, at a prison close to her Connecticut home or in Florida, but the requests were denied.
Senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin with us from Chicago now to talk about Martha's new digs, if you will.
Yes, so this was like her third choice. What happened? JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SR. LEGAL ANALYST: Well, this is Martha Stewart's new life. You don't get what you want necessarily in prison. The prisons are generally overcrowded. Alderson is the biggest women's prison in the federal system. It's certainly the best known to those of us who were in the law enforcement business. It's no surprise that that's where she wound up.
COLLINS: Yes, Tell us a little more about this place, though, as we look at the pictures here. No bars, no razor wire surrounding the camp, and the nickname, "Camp Cupcake."
TOOBIN: Camp Cupcake. You know, it looks sort of like a cross between an especially austere college campus and a military barracks. There are no bars. It doesn't look threatening. It's actually very close to the Greenbriar Resort, a famous resort where I'm sure all of her visitors will stay. It's really not a bad place. It's traditionally been a place where women have been able to control a lot of their lives, compared to other federal prisons.
In many respects, it's better than Danbury. It's lower security than Danbury. It's just a lot farther from Martha's 90-year-old mother and all of her friends.
COLLINS: Right, so what about the other people that she'll be serving her time with, the other criminals. What kind of women go there?
TOOBIN: Overwhelmingly low-level nonviolent narcotics offenders. There are not many white collar criminals among women in prison. There just simply aren't that many. The term in the system is drug mules, people who got caught carrying drug for their boyfriends. Overwhelmingly, there will be narcotic offenders, usually much younger than Martha. Martha's in her mid 60s. There are very few people in prison at that age. They'll be overwhelmingly in their 20s and 30s.
COLLINS: Let's talk just for a minute about what Martha actually said on the record about this prison. Here it is now: "While I had hoped to be designated to a facility closer to my family" -- as we have said -- "and more accessible to my appellate attorneys, I am pleased that the Bureau of Prisons has designated me so quickly to FPC Alderson. I look forward to getting this behind me and to vigorously pursuing my appeal."
What does say to you? I mean, we she was anxious to get this under way.
TOOBIN: You know, I think she is now in a mode of accepting what's ever given to her. The advice that everybody gets when you go to prison is, don't make waves, don't complain. And I think she's trying to follow the advice. It will be interesting to see if she can do that once she's in prison.
But you know, Martha Stewart is tough. One of the interesting things about this prison is that lights out are at 8:45 p.m. This is a woman who told me that she sleeps three or four hours a night. So what she's going to do between 8:45 and 6 a.m. when there's wake-up, I don't know. But she's just going to have to adjust.
COLLINS: Maybe she will come up with some other ideas, like a different magazine, or maybe just read a lot of magazines.
TOOBIN: You can bet she's going to do a lot of work, a lot of reading and a lot of writing.
COLLINS: I bet you're probably right.
Jeffrey Toobin, nice to see you. And thanks so much this morning.
TOOBIN: OK, Heidi.
COLLINS: The designer of SpaceShipOne is trying to figure out if he'll launch a second flight for Monday to win the $10 million Ansari X Prize. Yesterday SpaceShipOne was successfully launched from an airplane, but the craft began corkscrewing violently. It reached the edge of space, nearly 63 miles up, but designer Burt Rutan wants to know what caused the tumble. So despite those rolls, though, pilot Mike Melvill say it was a great ride.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE MELVILL, SPACESHIPONE PILOT: It seemed like a softer start and then great acceleration, a real smooth ride until I got about 160,000 feet, then it gets a little bit rough as the engine runs through a little roughness, and then the engine shuts down, and it's real smooth, real quiet and a beautiful, beautiful view.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: The X Prize goes to the team whose spacecraft makes it into suborbit twice in two weeks.
Coming up in our final hour, at 9:00 Eastern, we'll talk to Melvill about his dramatic flight. And, boy, that it was.
For now, though, we head back to Miami and once again, Bill.
HEMMER: Let me tell you one of the great things about being back in Florida, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes.
HEMMER: Everything's beautiful. We changed our set around a little bit here. So the lake here on campus is going to be our backdrop here. You'll see a fountain fire up a bit later today. It's going to be really...
COLLINS: Wow.
HEMMER: By the way, the swim team was in the pool an hour and a half ago, by the way, getting ready.
In a moment here, Carlos Watson joins us, talking about three things each man has to do tonight to be successful. Find out which one he believes needs to make sure he stays humble. Back in a moment live here, the University of Miami, right after this, on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: We've been talking about this one for a while. Oil prices, and they are hanging around $50 a barrel, but home heating bills could be giving many people a chill. Those are going to go up likely.
Andy Serwer, "Minding Your Business" on both of these.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes, sorry to be the bearer of this kind of news, Heidi. Just as we're getting used to $2 a gallon gasoline, other problems on the energy front for Americans. This has to do with heating bills this winter. And I'll tell you something, the price of heating oil and natural gas has been going up, up, up. Heating oil is $1.38 a gallon now, up from 74 cents a year ago. I mean, that's just huge.
Natural gas prices, over 50 percent of Americans get their heating from a natural gas. Look at that. These are measured, by the way, in British million thermal units. Now you really don't have to know that. The point is, you see the spike there on the end. You've gone from 5.70 a week ago to 6.90 per British million thermal unit, Which means you're going to be paying more.
The real determinant here, of course, is the weather. I mean, if it's a cold winter, these babies are going to go up even more. Supplies are very tight. And right now, the experts out there don't see much relief. So not a good thing for the economy, of course, either.
COLLINS: Not a good combination, that's for sure.
SERWER: No.
COLLINS: BTUs.
SERWER: BTUs.
COLLINS: I know BTUs. I didn't know...
CAFFERTY: That's British thermal units.
COLLINS: And now for "The Cafferty File" and the Question of the Day -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: The debates, which begin tonight, make or break a run for the White House. There are no do-overs tonight, can't say timeout, can we do that -- take another take on that. Screw up, and it's in the history books forever. Until the end of your days, you'll be known as the dolt who blew it when the chips were down.
It's not exactly winner take all, but it's close. Here's the question, which candidate has more to lose in tonight's debate? I really hope there's a train wreck of some kind. I hope there is some out of control moment.
SERWER: Someone stands up and says, if I were going to ask you this question...
CAFFERTY: Drools down the front of their shirt, or falls down.
COLLINS: Or it's 73 degrees versus 72 degrees.
CAFFERTY: Yes, turn the heat up, watch one of them, you know, lose five pounds in 90 minutes perspiring. I want to watch -- I want to see that.
SERWER: You're rooting for the car crash that you're saying.
CAFFERTY: I know about all the -- I want to see a wreck, a train wreck.
COLLINS: All right. Well somebody who is going to be watching those debates very closely, obviously, the first one tonight in Miami, is, of course, Bill Hemmer who is there.
Hey, Bill.
HEMMER: Hey, no dolts allowed, huh, Jack?
Thank you, Heidi.
In a moment here in Florida, it's tough to come back to the state and not consider what happened four years ago in that recount. You can't come to Florida without talking about hanging chad and butterfly ballots. AMERICAN MORNING on the road in Miami, a look back and see what has changed now four years later.
Back in a moment. We're live in Miami, right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Welcome back, everyone. We're live here, University of Miami campus, our special election coverage. The first presidential debate goes down later tonight, and a whole lot to talk about in the next 30 minutes, including the birthday guy right here, Carlos Watson next to me.
In a moment, Carlos tells us what each man needs to do tonight to win this thing.
Also Kelly Wallace standing stage left.
Hello, Kelly. Good morning to you.
In a moment, she'll look at the candidates from a rather unique perspective. How would the big image firms on Madison Avenue rate each campaign for selling its particular brand, brand Bush and brand Kerry. Kelly has that in a moment. Brand Collins back in New York. Hey, Heidi, good morning to you.
COLLINS: Yes, there's a brand. Nobody's going to buy that.
All right, Bill, thanks so much.
Also coming up, warnings now being issued in Washington State that Mount St. Helens could erupt in the next few days. How big an eruption are we talking about here? We're going to speak with the editor-in-chief of "National Geographic" to find out more on that.
In the meantime, we're going to check on the stories now in the news once again with Rick Sanchez.
Rick, not very good news coming out of Iraq this morning.
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: And interestingly, Heidi. It's happening in a place that's been in the news for quite a long time, for different reasons though. At least one U.S. soldier, as we understand, has been killed in the Abu Ghraib neighborhood of Baghdad. A string of explosions rocking southern Baghdad within the past couple of hours. News agencies are reporting at least 33 people killed. So far, dozens have been injured. That number may be as high as 50.
In Fallujah, U.S. forces say that they struck a suspected terrorist safehouse. At least three people were killed in that incident.
Here's a story. Starting today, visits from 27 more countries can prepare for longer immigration lines. Visitors from countries like England and France who can enter the United States without a visa will now be photographed and fingerprinted when they arrive. The information is then cross checked against law enforcement watchlists. These changes affect some 13 million tourists who enter the United States each and every year.
Cleveland Indians pitcher Kyle Denney is going to join his team once again today. Denney was injured last night when somebody fired shots at the team bus on a Kansas City highway. The rest of the team made it safely to the airport and boarded a plane bound for Minneapolis early this morning. Denney is said to be doing very, very well.
I take you now back to my hometown. That's where my friend Bill Hemmer is standing by.
Bill, what you got?
HEMMER: Hey, thank you, Rick.
Tough town there in Kansas City, huh. Wow.
Listen, Rick, you know all too well what happened in the state four years ago. I spent 37 days in Tallahassee. Every day and almost every hour this story seemed to change. Who would be the next president of the United States? Looking back now, it's tough to come back to the state and not think about what went down four years ago.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER (voice-over): In the newsrooms across America, it is late on election night, Tuesday November 7th.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.
HEMMER: But by early Wednesday morning the networks make an announcement.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: CNN declares that George Walker Bush has won Florida's 25 electoral votes.
HEMMER: Bush's slim lead in Florida triggers an automatic recount.
Thursday, November 9th, Gore seeks a manual recount in selected counties. And the battle is on.
Saturday, November 11th, now leading by a slim 327 votes, Bush tries to block the recount. Two days later, a Miami federal judge blocks bushes request.
For the next two weeks, there will be more court decisions, more votes counted and recounted, and endless confusion. And more controversy, too. Did the actual ballots confound people in the voting booth?
After a long Thanksgiving weekend, Sunday, November 26th, deadline day for the final recount.
Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris certifies the vote.
KATHERINE HARRIS, FLA. SECY. OF STATE: I hereby declare Governor George W. Bush the winner of Florida's 25 electoral votes.
HEMMER: But the next day brings another court challenge. Now Friday, December 1st, votes are still being contested. Bush opens an office for his transition team, and the Supreme Court is still hearing arguments.
Until Tuesday, December 12th. The Supreme Court rules the recount is unconstitutional, and time has run out.
Wednesday, December 13th, Gore concedes.
AL GORE (D), FMR. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Just moments ago, I spoke with George W. Bush and congratulating him on becoming the 43rd president of the United States.
HEMMER: Bush addresses the nation.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: After a difficult election, we must put politics behind us and work together to make the promise of America available for every one of our citizens.
HEMMER: Thirty-six days after it voted, America finally got its 43rd president.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: As we all head into Tallahassee the 8th of November, that Wednesday morning, we all thought we'd be home by the weekend. Little did we know we'd still be working in mid-December waiting for that ultimate announcement.
Now four years later, debate No. 1, what does each man have to do tonight? Carlos Watson, our analyst this morning with us here, joins us for some insight on this.
Good morning to you.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. Good to see you.
HEMMER: John Kerry, No. 1, needs to be clear and confident in his style.
WATSON: Unequivocally. Not just substantively, but stylistically, John Kerry's got to say, I can be president. And I think that happens not only based on what he says, but think about some of the nonverbal cues, what he dresses like, how strong he stands, making sure he doesn't wince or sigh. All those will be important.
HEMMER: Critique Iraq and bush's foreign policy judgment.
WATSON: Right, so I think it's important, Bill, that not only do you hear critique of Iraq, because that's looking backwards, but you fundamentally have to say, I question the president's judgment and his foreign policy making skills. Whether it will end up in Iran, North Korea, Syria or some other hotspot; you can trust this guy.
HEMMER: The third thing you mention is the vision thing. Explain that.
WATSON: Now remember, that was father Bush, Bush 41 who used to say the vision thing. But I think what's important for John Kerry here is say, here's what life would be like under a Kerry administration. He's got to connect with people. And part of what is going to be important there are anecdotes. Remember Ronald Reagan used to be great at that. I think he's going to have to do it with anecdotes, give people a real sense of what life would be like under him.
HEMMER: Let's go to the other side. President Bush, first thing you say, portray John Kerry as a flip flopper.
WATSON: Got to continue. And in fact, just yesterday, John Kerry acknowledged that the Bush-Cheney campaign has been very effective in doing that. And I think once again, President Bush, who often is criticized for not being detail-oriented, has got to point to John Kerry's own words.
HEMMER: Be humble and address the doubts on Iraq. How do you do that effectively?
WATSON: Remember, for a lot of swing voters, they still have questions on Iraq, not just retrospectively, but what's going to go on in the future. I think the president's got to say, things aren't perfect there, I made the best decision I could, and more importantly, I am going to try to figure out a way to stabilize things.
HEMMER: No. 3, you mention a confident wartime president. We have seen that in him to this point.
WATSON: And again, part of the way the president does that is not only, you know, I won't ask for a permission slip, but sometimes with a little bit of humor, too, looking confident, looking calm, looking relaxed.
HEMMER: All right. So we see each side the three things for John Kerry and the three things for George Bush. On the issue front, what do you anticipate hearing on that tonight?
WATSON: You know, I think two issues could end up standing out, Bill, and I would stay tuned for these issues. First and foremost, when do you use preemptive power? When is it okay? Do you do it unilaterally? Do you do it multilaterally? I think that's issue's going to be joined (ph). And the second issue, which could be a sleeper issue, the draft. Watch whether or not the issue of the draft comes up and how both men handle it. I think both could be very interesting.
HEMMER: Talk to you later this morning.
WATSON: See you soon.
HEMMER: And happy birthday, by the way.
WATSON: In my hometown no less.
HEMMER: Yesterday.
WATSON: We're a mile from my elementary school.
HEMMER: Nice to see you, Carlos.
WATSON: Good to see you.
HEMMER: Who wins later tonight isn't the only factor certainly. There's also the image each candidate presents, and Carlos touched on that. How they handle themselves while facing each other down.
Here is Kelly Wallace on that this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's out of touch.
BUSH: My opponent has had seven or eight different positions.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Think of President Bush and Senator Kerry as two brands vying to become No. 1.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Brand Kerry and brand Bush.
WALLACE: And right now, according to these Madison Avenue image makers...
JOSH ROGERS, ADVERTISING EXECUTIVE: Senator John Kerry I think has done less for the job in terms of communicating.
WALLACE: So their first tip for the Bostonian: Make an impression.
LINDA KAPLAN THALER, ADVERTISING EXECUTIVE: He has to have some great one-liners. He has to have water cooler talk for the next day.
ROGERS: Something people will talk about days on end afterwards.
WALLACE: Like this memorable moment in 1984.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RONALD REAGAN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience.
(LAUGHTER)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALLACE: Tip No. 2, for both men, don't let them see you sweat, literally.
ROGERS: Do not sigh, obviously.
WALLACE: Ala Al Gore in 2000. Think more of Bill Clinton's ease in 1992.
THALER: Kerry needs to do more with his body language, a smile, more smiles actually. Lose the tan, OK. If you're going to be president, you don't have time to get a tan.
WALLACE: And finally, lighten up.
THALER: You know, these are tough times, but we want Marcus Welby. We want somebody to tell us it's going to be OK.
WALLACE: For Mr. Bush, the main advice, don't muddy the brand, and...
THALER: Do not lose your temper.
WALLACE: The senator's challenge, bolstering brand Kerry with men.
ROGERS: Most males look at a candidate in terms who they'd like to have a beer with.
WALLACE: And with women.
THALER: Whoever does a better job of convincing the American public that's the brand I want, that's who is going to win.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: And tonight really an advertising executives dream. An audience expected to be in the tens of millions. And, Bill, the image makers we say for tonight the biggest audience expected of all the debates. More important than ever when it comes to the brand.
HEMMER: You have covered politics for years. Of all those soundbites we hang on for years and sometimes decades to come, how many are actually improvised, on the spot, live during the debate?
WALLACE: It's hard to say sort of never. You know, the sense is these aren't spontaneous, that they get lines and lines of possible one-liners from their aides. But the key is, as Ronald Reagan did so beautifully in 1984, make it seem like it's spontaneous, like it just came up in the top of your head. That's the key. We'll see if they do it tonight.
HEMMER: Thank you, Kelly. Kelly Wallace here in Florida.
Also later tonight, our live coverage starts at 7:00 Eastern here on CNN. The debate begins an hour later, sorry, two hours later at 9:00 Eastern Time. Watch AMERICAN MORNING tomorrow for complete debate analysis. Also I'll be in Columbus, Ohio then. We've assembled 24 undecided voters. Electronically, we can gauge their reactions of the hot-button issues later tonight, how they feel about what's being spoken. Also how they feel about the information is delivered and how the candidates look later tonight. Should be fascinating.
You know, Heidi, we hear so much from the surrogates, and the candidates and their surrogates. It will be go to hear from voters. We'll get back to that tomorrow morning. Yes, what about the people? They decide it.
Back to you, Heidi, in New York now.
COLLINS: You know what I give you, about maybe about another hour before you just dive right into that little body of water behind you there. The fountain looks lovely.
HEMMER: Can I tell you something, they just hooked up an air conditioning tube. So we are OK. See you later.
COLLINS: All right. Good to go. All right, Bill, we'll check back in just a little bit.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING now, Bill has more coverage of tonight's debate from the University of Miami.
Plus, if Mount St. Helens blows, how dangerous will it be? Stay with us. We'll talk about it on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Mount St. Helens may be ready to blow. Scientists are predicting a small to moderate eruption in the next few days and have issued a volcanic advisory. Not something I've heard too many times before. But when Mount St. Helens erupted back in 1980, 57 people were killed.
Bill Allen, editor-in-chief for "National Geographic" is in Washington this morning to talk about the new seismic activity and the potential danger.
Mr. Allen, hello, and thanks for being with us this morning.
BILL ALLEN, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC": It's my pleasure. Thank you, Heidi.
COLLINS:As we look at those pictures, how likely do you think it is that this mountain will blow?
ALLEN: I think there's going to be something going on, but I don't think it's going to be like the last time. There was so much pressure last time that it was like a cork being pulled out of a champagne bottle and the whole thing blew up. This time it's more likely to be a little fizzle, or some ash clouds, or maybe a little lava inside the dome, but a small explosion, perhaps.
COLLINS: So how do you know that? I mean, what are we talking about with the new seismic activity? Why does it happen?
ALLEN: Well, the scientists are looking at several things. First of all, they look at the earthquake activity. There's a lot of earthquake activity going on right now, but it's very shallow, about a mile beneath the surface, but they haven't seen the telltale signs of specific gases coming out that would indicate that there's new lava coming up to explode. But they do see that the dome is growing and deforming a little bit. So two out of the three signs for an explosion are there.
And there are no guarantees with volcanoes. You never know exactly what's going to happen, so it's better to be safe in this case.
COLLINS: All right, well, I know that the USGS has also been monitoring St. Helens for these tiny little earthquakes that happen as well. How do you detect those then?
ALLEN: Well, there are seismometers on there that are devices that can even feel like footsteps or rock falls as they're going across the craters. But when have you some kind of movement of the rock sliding down below, that's when you get these registration of earthquakes, and they're having maybe three or four earthquakes per minute there. Most of those, you can't feel, but that's still a lot of earthquakes, and that means there's some kind of movement and something going on down below.
COLLINS: So I'm guessing this would not be considered a surprise to scientists? I mean, really we have been watching this closely, right?
ALLEN: That's right. No, it's one of the most heavily monitored places on the entire planet. There are radio links. So anything that happens, it's immediately transmitted to the University of Washington where they monitor all of the things and put them together into computer models.
COLLINS: And just real quick, many people have gotten tornado warnings before, thunderstorm warnings, how do you warn people specifically that a volcano might erupt?
ALLEN: Well, what do you is you just, you put out a general announcement, and certainly the people who live in that area are very much attuned to that since 1980 and the big eruption. So they've cleaned out some of the area. They've prevented hikers from going.
COLLINS: All right, we're looking at some of those pictures now back from in 1980. I just remember all of the ash, unbelievable.
Bill Allen, we certainly appreciate your time here this morning, from "National Geographic." Once again, thanks so much, Bill.
ALLEN: It's my pleasure.
COLLINS: Still to come now, how will Wall Street react the day of the first presidential debate. Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" on that. He also has a market preview right here, coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: I want to go ahead and get an early preview of the markets now this morning. Andy Serwer, of course, here for that, "Minding Your Business."
SERWER: Yes, yesterday not a bad one. Let's check out what was going on on Wall Street. You can see stocks here that stocks were up very nicely across the board. Nasdaq, in particular, up 1.3 percent. Why, we talked about that Orbitz deal. That helped propel that index. Also GDP numbers were pretty good. And the price of oil dropped. Futures are looking a little bit higher this morning. Maybe we'll see a continuation of that rally.
A couple stocks in the news this morning, Talbot's, or Talby's as some customers call it, some of the customers from Hinga (ph), Massachusetts. Talby's warning that it's sales in September not doing so well, a purveyor of traditional women's clothes, safe to say. COLLINS: Classic.
SERWER: Classic, well classically not doing very well. You can see there by that chart. Another one to watch here, Merck, the pharma giant. Kind of unusual, they're saying they're going to have a 9:00 a.m. press conference here in New York City. The CEO Ray Gilmartin is going to be there. It involves new information, quote, new information on a current product, and Heidi, again, it's unusual when you get a CEO there. They're alerting the media. We don't know. We'll be following that for you.
COLLINS: 9:00 a.m., OK, very good. Thank you, Andy.
Jack here now, as well. Question of the day.
CAFFERTY: Question of the day. Thanks, Heidi.
No do-overs at the presidential debate tonight. Screw up and it's in the history books forever. Until the end of time, you will be known as the dolt who blew it when the chips were down. It's not exactly winner take all, but then it's very close.
The question is, which candidate has more to lose at the debate tonight?
Weldon in Canada writes, "There's so little credibility left between the two candidates, that if the truth is recognized from one candidate, he will be a shoo-in."
Wistar in Flowery Branch, Georgia -- Wistar, is that a real name? Wistar? "Vice President Cheney has the most to lose. No-bid contracts for Halliburton."
Agnes in Veals (ph), "I don't believe either candidate stands to lose anything with all the rules and regulations in place for tonight's show. It's not a debate. It's going to be a moronic display of politics as usual. It's a toss up about what to watch tonight, the debate or maybe a repeat of "The Dukes of Hazzard."
James in Claremont, Illinois, "Bush has the most to lose since he's the sitting president and is supposed to be ahead in polls."
And my friend Reg up there in Thunder Bay, Ontario, "Kerry's biggest fear is he'll forget whether it's an odd day of the month and have the same platform two days in a row, and Bush's fear is that he'll say something intelligent and ruin his entire image."
SERWER: So are they going to do the cutaway shots? Are they going to allow them to do that, do you think?
COLLINS: Well, it's in the rules not to do that, and yesterday we talked a little bit about, you know, the networks saying you can't tell us how to do that. That's sort of a journalistic decision to make. Still waiting to hear about it.
CAFFERTY: And the pool network is Fox, and of course they know a lot about journalism over there.
COLLINS: I'm not going to comment on that. But It will be interesting to see how many people watch the first one and then carry on into the second and third.
CAFFERTY: I just hope there's a train wreck. I want to see a train wreck.
COLLINS: Can I watch this with you?
CAFFERTY: No.
COLLINS: OK. All right, whatever.
We're going to pass it over to someone who is much more friendly, Bill Hemmer.
How are you doing, Bill?
HEMMER: Hey, most days I'm fine.
You know, what's extraordinary about the viewership of these debates, back in 2000 for the first debate, Bush and Gore, they got 47 million viewers. Now it dropped off a little bit, second and third debate got 37 million, off about 10 millions. But still, this is the largest audience to date to see these guys stand next to each other. And as Jack said earlier, make sure you are not -- well, I'll let that go.
In a moment here, foreign policy is the issue. Later tonight, experts say undecided voters will be looking at a more important factor. We'll have a look at that in a moment here.
Also, another reminder, our coverage later tonight kicks off at 7:00 Eastern Time. "ANDERSON" starts then. At 8:00, Wolf and Paula are here. And then the debate starts at 9:00 Eastern, all live, later tonight on CNN.
Back in a moment, live in Miami after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: In a moment here, a little more than a month ago, 33 days and counting now before election 2004. Florida officials already catching a bit of heat from Democrats about potential voting problems again this year. How does Florida's secretary of state respond to those allegations?
COLLINS: We'll talk to her about it after the break here, live in Florida on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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