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CNN Live Sunday
John Kerry Swings Through Ohio; Pressure Withing Mount St. Helens Continues To Rise; U.S. Army Helps Secure First Afghan Elections
Aired October 03, 2004 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Andrea Koppel in Washington. We're going to take you know live to a news conference that's taking place near the Mount St. Helens mountain, the latest on a possible eruption that they say could happen anytime. Let's listen in.
(JOINED IN PROGRESS)
JIM VALLANCE, USGS: Sunday crews will be installing three to four broadband instruments. These are significant, because they help us locate where these events are coming from more accurately than the instruments that we presently have on the volcano.
Also, on Saturday, a crew installed a microphone on the northwest side of the volcano to listen for explosions. So this instrument will detect explosions specifically, and that should help us know whether the seismic event that we see is associated to some sort of explosion at the volcano. This is not presently easy for us to detect during the dark hours or during bad weather. So this will be a great help to us in our monitoring efforts.
Gas measurements: there is a big change since Friday. There's an increase in the emission of carbon dioxide, this is a significant increase. It's in the range of 10 to, possibly, 30 parts per million carbon dioxide. And the significance of that is that it is an indication of fresh magma being intruded into the system.
We also noticed during the event of yesterday some sulphurous smell. And the gas instrument also detected a little bit hydrogen sulfide gas. That's the gas that smells like rotten eggs for your information. So that, too, is consistent with the possibly of new magma being intruded the system.
Deformation: We did not observe any significant deformation of the broader edipus (ph). Unfortunately, what points we have within the crater were destroyed during the eruption previously. So we have no further information on that. There is a crack on the south side of the dome. And there does appear to be some deformation occurring in that locality.
So today, we have at least 2 crews going out. We will be watching seismicity closely. Crews will be in the field replacing batteries on the GPS units. Those are the units that we use to keep track of the deformation. And crews will be flying with a flur, an intrument to detect heat anomalies. Once again today they've been out do days in a row.
And so they'll be out there looking for anomlies on the dome, looking for hot spots, trying to see further evidence of hot material coming from depth. Another gas detection flight will be scheduled as well, and they will be flying today. So we'll have information on that, probably -- well, we may not have that by later in the afternoon, but sometime this evening, that information will come in, and be processed.
We still expect activity to be moderate to small explosions, possibly with a plume to, as much as 10,000 or 20,000 feet. There could be the possibility of a lava dome being intruded into the edipus (ph). Obviously, we're concerned because of the change in activity for the possibility of a little bit more explosive behavior from the volcano, and we feel pretty confident now that fresh magma is being intruded into the system.
So that concludes my summary. I'd like to open it up to any questions you might have.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: That's not necessarily true. We simply did the cautious thing. Because harmonic tremor is an indication of magma moving, we wanted to be, play it safe, and make sure that we didn't miss something or not warn people properly. So, we'll continue to assess the state of seismicity under the volcano, and continue to advise as appropriate.
Obviously, this is a kind of incremental process that we're going through right trying now to gather new information, reassess the state of the volcano, and the possible risks that it poses.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Sometimes it's true and sometimes it's not, unfortunately.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: We really don't know, with certainty. We know that all of the seismicity is coming from a depth of about one kilometer, but -- and the harmonic tremor is presumably coming from a similar depth, but one of the reasons we're putting in some new instruments on the volcano is to try to get a better handle on where, what is happening.
QUESTION: Behind the scenes, how crazy or busy are things are going on, in this area, what is it you're seeing? What is that we're not seeing -- are people, geologists excited of what's going on?
VALLANCE: We're really excited. And we're also a little bit tired. We're operating 24/7. And of course, we have a limited staff. So this is, you know, stretching our capability a bit.
So a lot of people are working double shifts, working 12, 18 hours a day. Everyone once in a while somebody will end up doing a 24-hour shift and be fairly exhausted at the end of it. And trying to find, you know, a few moments to go home and, you know take care of our family and pets and so on. So it's a hectic time, but it's also a really exciting one.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Well, we reassess every day, as information comes in. In particular, we do an assessment each morning. Everybody gets together. By then, the field crews from the day before have gotten together and they reduce their data, and we all sit on a meeting and talk about, you know what, we observed and what it means, and how we should respond to that.
So each morning it will be, from now on it will start at 7:00, and usually it runs an hour, hour and a half, we talk about, you know, what we've learned the previous 24 hours, and what, how we should respond to that, and what it means with respect to how the volcano might behave in the next several days. I can't hear you.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: I can't hear you.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Well, as I mentioned, they're called broadband seismometers and they should help us better locate the source of the shaking down below. And so our hope is that we can do a little bit better with locating things. And that way we'll have a little better -- then I'm perhaps, will be able to say a little bit better where what is moving.
QUESTION: A glacier that's causing any kind of flow down the plain or perhaps down the bridge?
VALLANCE: We've not observed any substantially increased flow so far. There is concern -- I guess the main concern would be, should there be an explosive eruption of hot rock, that scattered hot rock all over the glacier, then we could possibly have a large flood of water that would move away from the equator, and that could generate a volcanic debris flow, which those are called, the horror (ph), as you probably know.
QUESTION: How dangerous -- I mean, will people have to evacuate downstream, or see it flow under the bridge?
VALLANCE: Well, you'd certainly see come down out of the volcano. And depending on the size, you know, there's still that catchment area down there that helps defray the effect of a debris flow. Of course, if it really large, that thing is pretty full now, and it might go on beyond.
At the present time, we don't feel that there's any need for evacuation in low-lying areas downstream, but we're keeping an eye on that, and monitoring it carefully. Also, we have instruments up there, which will detect such events coming down, even if they occur at night. So we'll know within two minutes of the passage of such a flood of water coming down off the volcano.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Do what?
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Well, we notify, we have a call-down list, which includes, you know, the National Weather Bureau, the airports, state, county officials, the Forest Service, and -- what we do is we just go through our call-down list when the event of significance occurs.
QUESTION: You said that you were concerned about an explosion larger than before. What is leading to your concern?
VALLANCE: Well, it's just the increasing probability or evidence of fresh magma being intruded into the ediphous. Initially, the clues we had suggested, OK, we've only got a shallow source and perhaps that means that it's only the magma that was intruded in 1998 that's involved here. But increasingly, that appears not to be the case, it appears that magma is intruding from a depth, we don't know exactly how deep, and that material is fresh. And also, it has the potential of being more gas-rich. And of course, as you may know, it's the volatile content of the magma, which makes it potentially explosive.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
KOPPEL: We've been listening to a press conference with Jim Vallance, who is a geologist with the U.S. Geological Society. And we have CNN's Ted Rowlands standing by also at Mount St. Helens. And Ted, hopefully you can translate for our viewers what we've just been hearing there, which was essentially I think an update on the status of the possibility of an eruption at Mount St. Helens.
TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Andrea. And really it is status quo at this point, as to where we were at this point yesterday, when a level 3 was issued here. That is the highest level in terms of predicting volcanic activity. And at that point, it really changed the situation here, and went from an event which took place Friday to a level three, and that prompted some evacuations and a lot of attention, but that's really where we are now.
This last update was just that, an update which kept us at that same level. You can see behind us, it is tough to see really any activity from this angle. We've got a little tighter shot of the actual dome, the lava dome of the northern edge of it, and throughout the last two hours, hour and a half to two hours, there's been a number of rockslides which geologists really are hesitant to put any significance to, because they say there is a lot of instability up there, the stability has weakened and there are going to be rockslides. They don't put too much into that. What they are concerned about is these harmonic tremors which were first detected on Saturday. That is what basically issued, was the reason they issued the level 3, and that means they believe there's fresh magma in the system, if you will, different from what was already there from 1989. And that really changes the scenario, because it brings in the potential for an eruption, with more power, basically a major eruption. Because of the fresh magma, they don't know the competencity of the gases that are associated with that. There's also CO2 emissions that have been detected over the last day, and again this morning.
So all eyes are on Mount St. Helens right now. And of course, as you heard earlier in that press conference, they really just don't know what to expect during the next couple of days but they're monitoring it very, very closely -- Andrea.
KOPPEL: And so in a nutshell, what we're talking about is that this would be the biggest eruption in 18 years, and the fresh magma you're referring to is not lava, is that right, Ted, just very quickly?
ROWLANDS: Well, magma is lava that is under the ground, it hasn't been exposed to the air, so in a sense it is, but has not come to the earth's surface yet. So the presence of it is one of the major reasons why the red flag was alerted on Saturday, why they went to this level 3. And you're right, it would be -- it already has been the most significant activity for Mount St. Helens since 1980, when, of course, it was a major eruption and a number of people lost their lives in that, 57 people died in that eruption.
They don't think there's much chance, if any, that could be replicated now simply, because they've lost 1,000 feet of the mountain since that eruption. So the stakes are a little bit lower here, but it's tough to predict and they're not sure what to expect and they're monitoring it very, very closely.
KOPPEL: And we appreciate your monitoring it for us. Ted Rowlands there in Mount St. Helens, thank you.
Keeping things safe here in the United States: there is a new plan for airport security. What is it and how will it affect you? That story straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: Turning to politics now, a new "Newsweek" post presidential debate is revealing this poll how the election could turn out if it were held today. According to a survey of registered American voters, 47 percent would choose John Kerry, that's compared to 43 percent just last month, while 45 percent would reelect President Bush. That's down from 49 percent last month, 2 percent would vet for Ralph Nader. His numbers remain unchanged from September.
The results of the new CNN/USA Today Gallup Poll will be released about two hours from now at 6:00 p.m. John Kerry is campaigning today, where President Bush campaigned yesterday: in the battleground state of Ohio. A local newspaper there is giving President Bush a 7-point lead over Kerry in the Buckeye State. Undaunted, Kerry is focusing on domestic issues, talking about jobs, and the economy. Our Frank Buckley is traveling with the Kerry campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Senator John Kerry was in Ohio for the seventh time since the Democratic National Convention, to talk about the economy and about jobs, in a state that's lost some 170,000 manufacturing jobs since the Bush administration took office.
(voice-over): Senator Kerry met with some steelworkers, who have been locked out of a titanium plant in Niles, Ohio, during a long labor dispute. He also held a town hall meeting in Austintown, Ohio, where Kerry said he proposes to change tax laws that, according to the senator, encourage outsourcing to other countries.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Whey I think we ought to be doing in America is not asking the American taxpayer to subsidize and reward a company that decides to take the jobs overseas. I think we ought to be rewarding the companies that keep the jobs and create them here in America.
BUCKLEY (voice-over): Senator Kerry also went off message, off the economy message to talk about a "New York Times" article that suggests that Bush administration officials used disputed intelligence information about whether Iraq was rebuilding its nuclear weapons program as it tried to make its case for war in Iraq.
(on camera): Senator Kerry's visit to Ohio is part of a multi- state swing of battleground states from Ohio. He's going to New Hampshire, to Pennsylvania and to Iowa, before finally settling in Colorado, for two days of debate prep, before next Friday's presidential debate. Frank Buckley, CNN, Austintown, Ohio.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: ...even as President Bush himself takes a break from campaigning. Some administration officials are reviewing tapes from Thursday's presidential debate, while others are on the defensive again today in another debate over disputed arms intelligence. Our White House correspondent Dana Bash has the details.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The president spent a rare day off the campaign trail on a bike trail, a sport Mr. Bush took up after a leg injury prevented him from running for exercise. It's that love of competition, disdain for losing, Bush aides are counting on to rebound from what they only privately admit was a disappointing debate.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Every good team goes back and looks at the tapes and looks at transcripts and does that to see where opportunities could be, you know, found and things like that.
BASH: The president went over some potential opportunities at a Sunday debate prep session inside the White House. While still trying to manage expectations, aides are hoping the format for round two, a town hall, will help.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Bush is very comfortable talking to real people and talking to them about big issues of the day.
BASH: One issue Bush officials would rather not talk about, but camp Kerry is pouncing on, whether the White House brushed aside known doubts about Iraq's nuclear capability in the run-up to war.
In September, 2002 on CNN's "LATE EDITION" national security adviser Condoleezza Rice warned of aluminum tube shipments to Iraq. An exhaustive "New York Times" report says...
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BASH: Sorry about the technical difficulties there. But we were just talking about the fact that the White House today, the national security adviser, is discussing the fact that there was a "New York Times" article that says that perhaps she used, back in 2002, some disputed information when making the case that Iraq was trying to get aluminum tubes, trying to make the case that Iraq was trying to blup its nuclear capability. Today she simply said that that was one report from one department and that she was using information from a whole host of intelligence agencies -- Andrea.
KOPPEL: Dana, we know that in the first couple of days after the debate, the president was focusing exclusively on foreign policy. What can we expect the message to be in the president's focus to be as we head towards Friday's debate?
BASH: It's a good question, Andrea, because they really are trying to refocus, the people who cover him on domestic issues but also know they have to keep talking about Iraq. The issue of Iraq is something that John Kerry, they feel, was able to shift from the question of whether or not John Kerry is ready and he has a plan in Iraq, to back to what the president's decisions were.
So they're going to keep talking about that. Iraq will be, and foreign policy will be, a part of this town hall debate next Friday but also heavily on domestic issues, that's a lot of what the president is going to be talking about this week.
KOPPEL: Dana Bash at the White House, thanks very much.
BASH: Thanks.
KOPPEL: Well the Transportation Safety Administration is about to launch a radical change in aviation security. A new passenger profiling system called S.P.O.T. will be tested at two northeastern airports later this month. Details of the plan are outlined in an exclusive article on "Time" magazine's Web site. The author, Sally Donnelly, joins us now live. Sally, how is this program going to work?
SALLY DONNELLY, TIME: What it's going to be is TSA employees will start to look at passengers rather than sort of focusing on the things that they carry, they'll take a look at the passengers out there, identify people who are suspicious or acting unusually and ask them to be interviewed by local law enforcement.
KOPPEL: And why do they think that will be more effective than the racial profiling, or is it not necessarily just about effectiveness?
DONNELLY: It's certainly not racial profiling. In fact, it's race neutral. It's been extremely well-vetted before it's going to put into place. But what aviation security experts have been concerned about is this focus on things, on carry-ons, your grandmother carrying knitting needles. But more important, is who the people out there who are out there flying.
So the TSA employees will be looking for people who perhaps want to do harm and as any law enforcement official knows, criminals always case the joint before they want to commit the crime.
KOPPEL: That seems like a real kind of touchy-feely type of way of looking at security patrols. How do you know, I mean how -- how can you tell if somebody is a suspicious individual?
DONNELLY: Right, and some of it's gut. You know, gut instinct that police officers have. And it is a system, for example, that El Al, the Israeli airline, has been using for decades. Which is to -- it's a little more offensive, it's going on the offensive to look out for people entering their secure zone and are look for people who could obviously or potentially present a threat.
So I think it's a welcome change for the TSA. Rather than, sort of, sitting back and waiting for the people to come to them, it's going out and looking for them.
KOPPEL: So, the two airports that are going to be selected for this trial run, which airports are they? And how will they know if the program is successful?
DONNELLY: Well, the TSA hasn't named the airports yet, but they will be in the Northeastern United States. And they plan to roll the program out later this month.
They're going to have an analysis of it within 60 or 90 days after they implement the program and see what they're getting. In Boston, at Logan Airport, the Massachusetts State Police ran a similar program and they caught about 20 people who had committed various crimes before, were wanted on warrants. So, if you don't catch a terrorist or discourage them, you might have a beneficial effect in another way of getting other criminals.
KOPPEL: So, clearly, they're not just looking for knitting needles when they run this program? DONNELLY: Absolutely. And it's not going to be very intrusive. The police officers who will do the interviewing, it will be very informal to begin with. And then if there are other things that cause concern about an individual, they can raise the intensity, whether to detain them or if it needs to actually arrest the person.
KOPPEL: Sally Donnelly with "Time" magazine. Sounds like an interesting article. We'll all be looking for it in this coming week. Thanks so much for coming in.
DONNELLY: Thank you.
KOPPEL: While we focus on the presidential election here in the U.S., we shouldn't lose sight of Afghanistan's first post-Taliban election. It's coming up this Saturday, and the U.S. military is playing a big role in trying to ensure the election comes off smoothly. Find out more when CNN SUNDAY continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: Afghanistan is about to hold its first ever presidential election next Saturday, but so far, the process hasn't been trouble- free. CNN's Ryan Chilcote spent two weeks with the U.S. Army's 27th Infantry Regiment and has this exclusive report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The scouts are out front to find any threats to a convoy of politicians trailing them. This threat found them.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Out, hey, out!
CHILCOTE: Miraculously, no one was hurt from the 2 remote controlled anti-tank land mines. The convoy catches up and they move on.
It has been a dangerous journey through tribal regions near Afghanistan's border with Pakistan, but the governor is still alive for his first meeting with the locals. This is the governor's first visit to this part of the province. It's part of his effort to assert his authority here and encourage Afghans to participate in the elections.
The governor is joined by officials from the U.S. State Department and the U.N., the united front to show the international community support for the election process.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Governor Mongal is offering you a choice today. That choice is between the future and the past.
CHILCOTE: But they get a skeptical reception.
Only one of the three main tribes shows up, and the soldiers have to rush to the aid of local policemen under attack a few miles away. By the time they get there, the attackers' trail has gone cold. The problem in this part of the Pactica Province, that regular attention from U.S., Afghan and U.N. officials, the Taliban and Al Qaeda has been busy exerting their own influence.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There was a honeymoon period after the collapse of the Taliban, where many things could have been done, and I'm not saying it was possible to do it, but many of the things weren't done.
CHILCOTE: The governor got a warmer welcome in the next town. At least here, the elections appear poised to go forward. For the soldiers, it's a nerve-wracking job.
STAFF SGT. JASON WISTOSKI, U.S. ARMY: It's a traditional thing that we're always taught, man with gun, bad. Well, that does not apply here. We're back in the old west everybody has a gun here.
CHILCOTE: And there are many more guns across the border in Pakistan. That's where the soldiers believe the Al Qaeda leadership is, out of bounds, but not out of mind.
Ryan Chilcote, CNN, Southeastern Afghanistan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR, CNN SUNDAY: And with Afghanistan's first post-Taliban elections taking place next Saturday, CNN's Christiane Amanpour will have a week-long series of special reports live from Afghanistan, beginning tomorrow morning on "American Morning" and continuing throughout each day. That is only on CNN.
Just ahead it was a crucial voting block in the last presidential election. What about the military vote this year? Find out how the war in Iraq and John Kerry's military service are factoring into their decisions. What did the candidates learn from their first debate? Will that change? What do they need to do in their next debate?
Also if you thought the debate would be a godsend for the late night comedy shows you were right.
(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you say crush the terrorists, how exactly do you plan to do that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By working hard. Working Saturdays.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: This week, we are taking a look at the military vote. Many analysts believe absentee ballots from military personnel overseas were crucial to George Bush's victory in 2000. But Democrats believe the Iraq war puts many of these votes up for grabs, and both campaigns are reaching out to military personnel, and their families. CNN's Alina Cho has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Steve Brozak is trying to win the hearts and minds of voters these days. A former Republican and former marine, Brozak switched parties after coming home from Iraq last year. He's now running for Congress in New Jersey as a Democrat. Brozak says he saw firsthand what it was like to fight a war he calls a lie.
STEVE BROZAK: You were hoping, you were believing that we'd have enough people coming in. You were hoping, you were believing that we'd have a real strategy, but none of it materialized.
VINCE MEEKO: What I saw there is a wonderful success story.
CHO: Vince Meeko served in Iraq, left and came back pro-Bush.
MEEKO: People in Iraq with tears in their eyes used to want to kiss my hand, kiss my shoulder or hug me and their best English say, "thank you Bush."
CHO: Why he's now working for the president's re-election campaign, reminding supporters to vote Bush.
CHO (on camera): While most polls show that military veterans tend to lean Republican, less is known about the political leanings of the active duty military. The war in Iraq has brought out strong feelings on both sides this year, and the candidates are courting the military vote like never before.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.: We got a great United States military.
CHO: The Bush campaign is well aware military absentee ballots in 2000 may have made the difference. The Pentagon is now encouraging troops overseas to vote.
SENATOR JOHN KERRY, PRESIDENTAL CANDIDATE: I'm John Jerry, and I'm reporting for duty.
CHO: Who could forget John Kerry's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention? Kerry supporters believe growing casualties in Iraq, expended troop deployments may swing voters their way.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Probably the Republicans will get a plurality of the military vote, but I think their margin will be substantially narrowed.
CHO: Why Bush, Kerry, even Meeko and Brozak want those in uniform to cast their vote.
Alina Cho, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: Did the first presidential debate change the voter's minds and what can we expect in the next showdown between President Bush and Senator Kerry? Joining ours "Political Roundtable" discussion from Pittsburgh is Kiron Skinner an assistant professor of political science and history at Carnegie-Mellon University, and here in Washington is Ann Lewis the national chair of the Democratic National Committee Women's Vote Center. Welcome to both of you ladies.
ANN LEWIS, NATIONAL CHAIR, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE WOMEN'S VOTE CENTER: Thank you.
KIRON SKINNER, ASST. PROFESSOR, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY: Thank you.
KOPPEL: I'd like to begin with you, Professor Skinner and ask you considering what the latest "Newsweek" poll post debate is showing, that the gap has obviously disappeared between President Bush and Senator Kerry can we expect looking ahead to Friday's debate President Bush to be tweaking his performance?
SKINNER: I think we'll probably see him tweaking his performance. I think what we saw that he did so fabulously in the first debate was that he really went back to what he talked about during the 2000 campaign, in fact, as Governor Bush. He outlined his ideas about what it means to be the preeminent power in the world and he talked about the responsibility of being the power to protect other countries, to promote freedom and democracy.
He did a good job at that high altitude. I think what he will do in the next debate is be more specific about his policies and I think we'll see him doing that. But I think he really wanted to establish the kind of grand strategy that has driven the United States since 9/11 and he did that very well.
KOPPEL: Ms. Lewis, looking at, as somebody who is a long time experience in the political world, what do you thinks the aides to President Bush and Senator Kerry are telling each candidate right now?
LEWIS: Well, I can tell you something about what the aides to Senator Kerry are saying, because they're saying, this was a very good beginning, more than 60 million people who saw for themselves the clear differences between the candidates who heard John Kerry talk about national security, about his own determination to defeat terrorism, and finish the job in Iraq.
But now, in this next town hall, because the issues will be broader, it is a chance also to talk about the domestic agenda, to talk about health care, to talk about jobs, and how we've got to start bringing good jobs here at home, so what's important is that this is an opportunity to say to the American people, you have a right to expect your president to work on both agendas at once.
We can't be strong abroad if we're not also strong at home. That's going to be a theme for the next debate. KOPPEL: Professor Skinner, a lot of folks going into Thursday night's debate thought that this was a give me for President Bush, that if he won this debate he would have knocked Senator Kerry out of the race. What do you think will be the key messages that we're going to hear from President Bush on Friday?
SKINNER: Again, I think he's going to be specific about his policies. You know, in the past month, he's been talking about jobs, education, health care, and we're going to hear more of that in great detail in this next debate. What we saw also in the first one and I think we'll see some of it but perhaps in a different way, in terms of his style and presentation, we saw a president who has been deeply affected by and positively emboldened by the awesome responsibility of fighting the global war on terror.
And I think we saw his emotion and his concern for the country in the first debate and the work that he's done, and I think he'll talk about the domestic connections in very clear terms, coming into the next discussion.
KOPPEL: I think that some of the post-debate polling that was done reflects, you mentioned the awesome responsibility that President Bush feels, but I think some voters were actually turned off by the president's body language. Do you think that we will see a kinder, gentler President Bush on Friday?
SKINNER: You know, President Bush is who he is. He's a very natural person and politician as such, and I think Americans, you know, the polls are so close right now, and I tend not to read much into them with the numbers, with this kind of close margin, but Americans have appreciated President Bush for being a very natural person in his responses and in his self-presentation.
To them and to heads of government, they've applauded him for that in the past and I think we will see him being himself again, and he will probably have some different stylish issues this time but I think he really is appreciated by Americans for the natural way that he presents himself.
KOPPEL: Ann Lewis --
(CROSSTALK)
KOPPEL: I was just going to say, Ann, you spend most of your time focusing on the women's vote. Where are women coming down with the two candidates?
LEWIS: Well, I was starting to say that if in fact that George Bush we saw at the debate is who he really is, that came as something of a surprise I think to a lot of people and I know from what I've been hearing the last couple of days of particular concern to women who thought that was not the image they want of their president.
So I'll tell you right now, I think the president's aides are showing him tapes of this debate and they're going to suggest a different kind of style and a different personality. When we see them on stage on Friday.
KOPPEL: You know, I heard very -- if I could just come in for a minute. I heard very different things, in fact I heard many things some who said that they weren't quite comfortable with his presentation, but some who said they felt that Kerry was a bit stayed as well, but others said they thought President Bush really connected and he seemed likeable and believable and friendly and concerned.
So I think there are many anecdotes out there and perspectives, and I think we want to see what's going to happen in the next debate. We can't really predict, and part of what's good about the debates is that we do have some natural responses coming forward, and some unexpected events, and that's what we want to happen.
KOPPEL: I'd lea like for our last question, ladies, to look at the women voters that are out there. What is the most important block right now in terms of lower, middle, upper close, working moms, single mothers, Ann why don't you take that one?
LEWIS: Let me start with two very important groups. The first are single women, we would say women on their own. We know that right now, single women, who are, well, potentially 43 percent of women, in fact, living by themselves, giving John Kerry a 25-point margin in some of the latest polls. For us, what's important is to increase the turnout among single women.
They are very concerned about issues like health care, very concerned about jobs, equal pay. This president George Bush has really taken us backward on equal pay. So again, I think you're going to hear about the economy. You're going to hear about health care. That's of concern to these women. The second --
KOPPEL: OK, Ann I just need to give Professor Skinner an opportunity to have a closing thought there.
SKINNER: Yes, an important question. I think there's been a lot of discussion about security moms and I think President Bush made it very clear in this first debate and in other speeches that he's given that he takes seriously the notion in western political philosophy that the first responsibility of the sovereign is self-protection and self-survival and that he sees that as his job for the United States and security moms have been very supportive of President Bush.
KOPPEL: Yes, that is one thing that is certainly resonated with those mothers. Professor Kiron Skinner, I want to thank you for joining us from Pittsburgh.
SKINNER: Thank you.
KOPPEL: And Ann Lewis here in Washington, thank you both for coming in today.
LEWIS: My pleasure.
KOPPEL: And you can learn more about the Democratic presidential nominee tonight on "CNN Presents" Candy Crowley's profile of John Kerry begins at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, and next Sunday, "CNN Presents" runs of John King's look at the mission of George W. Bush.
The first Monday in October is tomorrow, and that means the start of a new Supreme Court session. We'll look at some of the cases. The Supremes will hear.
And Billy Joel ties the knot again. We'll have details when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: In the Middle East Israel's prime minister says his country's biggest military offensive in Gaza in four years could escalate. At least six Palestinians died today, including two teenage boys. CNN's Ben Wedeman has the latest.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Into its fifth bloody day, operation days of penitence could stretch into weeks. With more Israelis forces deploying around Gaza Jabalya refuse camp. They may be settling in for a long stay.
Prime Minister Aerial Sharon is saying Sunday the offensive will last as long as it takes to stop Palestinian militants from firing Kasam rockets who made missiles into Israel.
TIGAL FALMOR, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTRY: The operation will take place as long as there are Kasams, rockets, mortars coming out of the Gaza strip. The operation is intended to stop the firing of the rockets and missiles, and it will stop as soon as this firing will stop.
WEDEMAN: The Palestinian death toll has topped 60, with more than 250 wounded. The fighting in Jabalya, the biggest refugee camp in Gaza and home to more than 100,000 people has tapered off. The Palestinian militants vow they've only just begun to fight.
"We will not let Sharon harvest any positive outcomes from this campaign," says this Islamic Jihad spokesman Halid Buttes (ph). On the contrary this campaign will fail. Israel has released an aerial surveillance video which it claims shows Palistians loading a United Nations vehicle with Kasam rocket. The U.N. is investigating but has its doubts.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because the Kasam rocket as it was implied to be weighs between 32 and 52 kilos. No man is easily going to carry that in his hand as it was carried. So it cannot possibly be a heavy object. It is in all likelihood if anybody looks twice at the picture a stretcher a portable stretcher that was folded.
WEDEMAN: Despite the Israeli offensive, several Kasams have been fired into Israel since "operation days of we tenatians (ph) began Tuesday evening.
WEDEMAN (on camera): The immediate pretext for the Gaza operation is to stop the missile attacks. But many observers here believe the real purpose is to deal a crushing blow to the Palistains resistance before Israel pulls out of Gaza sometime next year and that is a far more ambitious and some would argue impossible goal.
Ben Wedeman, CNN, Jerusalem.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: Time now for a quick look at news across America. A small tour boat operating in an alligator-infested swamp capsized last night in Crown Point, Louisiana. All 16 passengers and the crew were taken to the hospital, three in critical condition. Local authorities say the flat bottom aluminum boat somehow flipped over in shallow water.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu is appearing in an off Broadway play in New York. The Nobel Peace Prize winner plays a judge in a play called "Guantanamo: Honor Bound to Defend Freedom" the play explores the plight of British detainees at the U.S. naval base in Cuba.
And piano man Billy Joel crooned, "I do" for the third time. He exchanged vows with 23-year-old Kate Lee last night at his Long Island home. The couple has been dating since last year. Lee is a television restaurant reviewer.
The U.S. Supreme Court starts a new term tomorrow. Justices will be ruling on everything from federal sentencing rules to the medical use of marijuana. CNN's Kathleen Koch has a preview.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Crime and punishment, the focus of many cases the Supreme Court will tackle this term. On their first day, justices will consider whether federal guidelines established to ensure fair and uniform sentencing are constitutional. Some argue they are not, because they allow judges to increase sentencing based on factors not proven to a jury.
The court in June ruled similar Washington State sentencing guidelines were unconstitutional. Most agree striking down federal guidelines would radically change the prosecution of future cases.
PETER WHITE, FMR. FEDERAL PROSECUTOR: It will be a brand new day in terms of sentencing federal criminal defendants, and it will be back to the days when judges had a lot more discretion.
KOCH: And past sentences still on appeal could be reduced like the 18-month jail term imposed on investment banker Frank Quattrone for obstruction of justice. In week two, the Supreme Court will revisit its 1989 ruling that juvenile killers can face the death penalty. The basis, whether evolving standards of decency now make such executions cruel and unusual punishment.
BILL MOFFITT, CRIMINAL DEFENSE LAWYER: Atalences (ph) minds work differently than adults' minds. We know those things now, so should those things now be considered in whether or not it is a decent thing to do or does it evolve, does it violate evolving standards of decency to execute a child?
KOCH: In a legal tug-of-war between Washington and the states, the court will also examine whether Congress can override state laws allowing the medicinal use of marijuana. In November, two unreasonable search and seizure cases, one on whether officers during a routine traffic stop can use drug-sniffing dogs, another examining whether suspects can be held in handcuffs for hours during a police search.
KOCH (on camera): Experts predict a continuing tendency to view cases through the prism of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Supreme Court last term deciding five police search cases all in favor of law enforcement.
EDWARD LAZARUS, SUPREME COURT ANALYST: I don't expect this upcoming term to have wide swings one way or another in the major areas of law.
KOCH: Kathleen Koch, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: The political pundits have already given us their views on the presidential debates. Well, now, we get the oh, so important comedic analysis. Our favorite comedians are ripping into the podium performance of President Bush and Senator John Kerry. Their analysis now in our late night laughs.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you say crush the terrorists, how exactly do you plan to do that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By working hard. Working Saturdays. Came in on Sunday once.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The fact of the matter is, I have consistently supported the war in front of pro audiences and condemned it when speaking to groups that oppose it. That is not flip-flopping. That is pandering and Americans deserve a president who knows the difference. Thank you.
KERRY: Before I answer further, let me thank you, for moderating. I want to thank the University of Miami for hosting us.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Smoke 'em if you got 'em. It's gallon to be a long night!
BUSH: This is a global effort. We're facing a, a group of folks who have such hatred in their heart.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Group of folks? We're facing a group of folks? A group of folks is what you run into at the Olive Garden.
(END VIDEO CLIP) KOPPEL: That's it for us. "Next@CNN" is coming up, and here's Daniel Seiberg with a preview.
DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ahead on "Next@CNN" a hair- raising ride into space puts a private company one step closer to a $10 million prize.
Deforestation takes the claim blame for Haiti's huge death toll from tropical storm Jeanne.
KOPPEL: At 6:00 p.m. Eastern Carol Lynn will have the new CNN/USA Today Gallup presidential poll hot off the presses. Plus reaction from the campaign.
And tonight on "People in the News" profiles of the number two men Vice President Dick Chaney and Senator John Edwards. Thanks so much for joining us; I will back with the headlines after a quick break.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired October 3, 2004 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Andrea Koppel in Washington. We're going to take you know live to a news conference that's taking place near the Mount St. Helens mountain, the latest on a possible eruption that they say could happen anytime. Let's listen in.
(JOINED IN PROGRESS)
JIM VALLANCE, USGS: Sunday crews will be installing three to four broadband instruments. These are significant, because they help us locate where these events are coming from more accurately than the instruments that we presently have on the volcano.
Also, on Saturday, a crew installed a microphone on the northwest side of the volcano to listen for explosions. So this instrument will detect explosions specifically, and that should help us know whether the seismic event that we see is associated to some sort of explosion at the volcano. This is not presently easy for us to detect during the dark hours or during bad weather. So this will be a great help to us in our monitoring efforts.
Gas measurements: there is a big change since Friday. There's an increase in the emission of carbon dioxide, this is a significant increase. It's in the range of 10 to, possibly, 30 parts per million carbon dioxide. And the significance of that is that it is an indication of fresh magma being intruded into the system.
We also noticed during the event of yesterday some sulphurous smell. And the gas instrument also detected a little bit hydrogen sulfide gas. That's the gas that smells like rotten eggs for your information. So that, too, is consistent with the possibly of new magma being intruded the system.
Deformation: We did not observe any significant deformation of the broader edipus (ph). Unfortunately, what points we have within the crater were destroyed during the eruption previously. So we have no further information on that. There is a crack on the south side of the dome. And there does appear to be some deformation occurring in that locality.
So today, we have at least 2 crews going out. We will be watching seismicity closely. Crews will be in the field replacing batteries on the GPS units. Those are the units that we use to keep track of the deformation. And crews will be flying with a flur, an intrument to detect heat anomalies. Once again today they've been out do days in a row.
And so they'll be out there looking for anomlies on the dome, looking for hot spots, trying to see further evidence of hot material coming from depth. Another gas detection flight will be scheduled as well, and they will be flying today. So we'll have information on that, probably -- well, we may not have that by later in the afternoon, but sometime this evening, that information will come in, and be processed.
We still expect activity to be moderate to small explosions, possibly with a plume to, as much as 10,000 or 20,000 feet. There could be the possibility of a lava dome being intruded into the edipus (ph). Obviously, we're concerned because of the change in activity for the possibility of a little bit more explosive behavior from the volcano, and we feel pretty confident now that fresh magma is being intruded into the system.
So that concludes my summary. I'd like to open it up to any questions you might have.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: That's not necessarily true. We simply did the cautious thing. Because harmonic tremor is an indication of magma moving, we wanted to be, play it safe, and make sure that we didn't miss something or not warn people properly. So, we'll continue to assess the state of seismicity under the volcano, and continue to advise as appropriate.
Obviously, this is a kind of incremental process that we're going through right trying now to gather new information, reassess the state of the volcano, and the possible risks that it poses.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Sometimes it's true and sometimes it's not, unfortunately.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: We really don't know, with certainty. We know that all of the seismicity is coming from a depth of about one kilometer, but -- and the harmonic tremor is presumably coming from a similar depth, but one of the reasons we're putting in some new instruments on the volcano is to try to get a better handle on where, what is happening.
QUESTION: Behind the scenes, how crazy or busy are things are going on, in this area, what is it you're seeing? What is that we're not seeing -- are people, geologists excited of what's going on?
VALLANCE: We're really excited. And we're also a little bit tired. We're operating 24/7. And of course, we have a limited staff. So this is, you know, stretching our capability a bit.
So a lot of people are working double shifts, working 12, 18 hours a day. Everyone once in a while somebody will end up doing a 24-hour shift and be fairly exhausted at the end of it. And trying to find, you know, a few moments to go home and, you know take care of our family and pets and so on. So it's a hectic time, but it's also a really exciting one.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Well, we reassess every day, as information comes in. In particular, we do an assessment each morning. Everybody gets together. By then, the field crews from the day before have gotten together and they reduce their data, and we all sit on a meeting and talk about, you know what, we observed and what it means, and how we should respond to that.
So each morning it will be, from now on it will start at 7:00, and usually it runs an hour, hour and a half, we talk about, you know, what we've learned the previous 24 hours, and what, how we should respond to that, and what it means with respect to how the volcano might behave in the next several days. I can't hear you.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: I can't hear you.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Well, as I mentioned, they're called broadband seismometers and they should help us better locate the source of the shaking down below. And so our hope is that we can do a little bit better with locating things. And that way we'll have a little better -- then I'm perhaps, will be able to say a little bit better where what is moving.
QUESTION: A glacier that's causing any kind of flow down the plain or perhaps down the bridge?
VALLANCE: We've not observed any substantially increased flow so far. There is concern -- I guess the main concern would be, should there be an explosive eruption of hot rock, that scattered hot rock all over the glacier, then we could possibly have a large flood of water that would move away from the equator, and that could generate a volcanic debris flow, which those are called, the horror (ph), as you probably know.
QUESTION: How dangerous -- I mean, will people have to evacuate downstream, or see it flow under the bridge?
VALLANCE: Well, you'd certainly see come down out of the volcano. And depending on the size, you know, there's still that catchment area down there that helps defray the effect of a debris flow. Of course, if it really large, that thing is pretty full now, and it might go on beyond.
At the present time, we don't feel that there's any need for evacuation in low-lying areas downstream, but we're keeping an eye on that, and monitoring it carefully. Also, we have instruments up there, which will detect such events coming down, even if they occur at night. So we'll know within two minutes of the passage of such a flood of water coming down off the volcano.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Do what?
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
VALLANCE: Well, we notify, we have a call-down list, which includes, you know, the National Weather Bureau, the airports, state, county officials, the Forest Service, and -- what we do is we just go through our call-down list when the event of significance occurs.
QUESTION: You said that you were concerned about an explosion larger than before. What is leading to your concern?
VALLANCE: Well, it's just the increasing probability or evidence of fresh magma being intruded into the ediphous. Initially, the clues we had suggested, OK, we've only got a shallow source and perhaps that means that it's only the magma that was intruded in 1998 that's involved here. But increasingly, that appears not to be the case, it appears that magma is intruding from a depth, we don't know exactly how deep, and that material is fresh. And also, it has the potential of being more gas-rich. And of course, as you may know, it's the volatile content of the magma, which makes it potentially explosive.
QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)
KOPPEL: We've been listening to a press conference with Jim Vallance, who is a geologist with the U.S. Geological Society. And we have CNN's Ted Rowlands standing by also at Mount St. Helens. And Ted, hopefully you can translate for our viewers what we've just been hearing there, which was essentially I think an update on the status of the possibility of an eruption at Mount St. Helens.
TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Andrea. And really it is status quo at this point, as to where we were at this point yesterday, when a level 3 was issued here. That is the highest level in terms of predicting volcanic activity. And at that point, it really changed the situation here, and went from an event which took place Friday to a level three, and that prompted some evacuations and a lot of attention, but that's really where we are now.
This last update was just that, an update which kept us at that same level. You can see behind us, it is tough to see really any activity from this angle. We've got a little tighter shot of the actual dome, the lava dome of the northern edge of it, and throughout the last two hours, hour and a half to two hours, there's been a number of rockslides which geologists really are hesitant to put any significance to, because they say there is a lot of instability up there, the stability has weakened and there are going to be rockslides. They don't put too much into that. What they are concerned about is these harmonic tremors which were first detected on Saturday. That is what basically issued, was the reason they issued the level 3, and that means they believe there's fresh magma in the system, if you will, different from what was already there from 1989. And that really changes the scenario, because it brings in the potential for an eruption, with more power, basically a major eruption. Because of the fresh magma, they don't know the competencity of the gases that are associated with that. There's also CO2 emissions that have been detected over the last day, and again this morning.
So all eyes are on Mount St. Helens right now. And of course, as you heard earlier in that press conference, they really just don't know what to expect during the next couple of days but they're monitoring it very, very closely -- Andrea.
KOPPEL: And so in a nutshell, what we're talking about is that this would be the biggest eruption in 18 years, and the fresh magma you're referring to is not lava, is that right, Ted, just very quickly?
ROWLANDS: Well, magma is lava that is under the ground, it hasn't been exposed to the air, so in a sense it is, but has not come to the earth's surface yet. So the presence of it is one of the major reasons why the red flag was alerted on Saturday, why they went to this level 3. And you're right, it would be -- it already has been the most significant activity for Mount St. Helens since 1980, when, of course, it was a major eruption and a number of people lost their lives in that, 57 people died in that eruption.
They don't think there's much chance, if any, that could be replicated now simply, because they've lost 1,000 feet of the mountain since that eruption. So the stakes are a little bit lower here, but it's tough to predict and they're not sure what to expect and they're monitoring it very, very closely.
KOPPEL: And we appreciate your monitoring it for us. Ted Rowlands there in Mount St. Helens, thank you.
Keeping things safe here in the United States: there is a new plan for airport security. What is it and how will it affect you? That story straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: Turning to politics now, a new "Newsweek" post presidential debate is revealing this poll how the election could turn out if it were held today. According to a survey of registered American voters, 47 percent would choose John Kerry, that's compared to 43 percent just last month, while 45 percent would reelect President Bush. That's down from 49 percent last month, 2 percent would vet for Ralph Nader. His numbers remain unchanged from September.
The results of the new CNN/USA Today Gallup Poll will be released about two hours from now at 6:00 p.m. John Kerry is campaigning today, where President Bush campaigned yesterday: in the battleground state of Ohio. A local newspaper there is giving President Bush a 7-point lead over Kerry in the Buckeye State. Undaunted, Kerry is focusing on domestic issues, talking about jobs, and the economy. Our Frank Buckley is traveling with the Kerry campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Senator John Kerry was in Ohio for the seventh time since the Democratic National Convention, to talk about the economy and about jobs, in a state that's lost some 170,000 manufacturing jobs since the Bush administration took office.
(voice-over): Senator Kerry met with some steelworkers, who have been locked out of a titanium plant in Niles, Ohio, during a long labor dispute. He also held a town hall meeting in Austintown, Ohio, where Kerry said he proposes to change tax laws that, according to the senator, encourage outsourcing to other countries.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Whey I think we ought to be doing in America is not asking the American taxpayer to subsidize and reward a company that decides to take the jobs overseas. I think we ought to be rewarding the companies that keep the jobs and create them here in America.
BUCKLEY (voice-over): Senator Kerry also went off message, off the economy message to talk about a "New York Times" article that suggests that Bush administration officials used disputed intelligence information about whether Iraq was rebuilding its nuclear weapons program as it tried to make its case for war in Iraq.
(on camera): Senator Kerry's visit to Ohio is part of a multi- state swing of battleground states from Ohio. He's going to New Hampshire, to Pennsylvania and to Iowa, before finally settling in Colorado, for two days of debate prep, before next Friday's presidential debate. Frank Buckley, CNN, Austintown, Ohio.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: ...even as President Bush himself takes a break from campaigning. Some administration officials are reviewing tapes from Thursday's presidential debate, while others are on the defensive again today in another debate over disputed arms intelligence. Our White House correspondent Dana Bash has the details.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The president spent a rare day off the campaign trail on a bike trail, a sport Mr. Bush took up after a leg injury prevented him from running for exercise. It's that love of competition, disdain for losing, Bush aides are counting on to rebound from what they only privately admit was a disappointing debate.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Every good team goes back and looks at the tapes and looks at transcripts and does that to see where opportunities could be, you know, found and things like that.
BASH: The president went over some potential opportunities at a Sunday debate prep session inside the White House. While still trying to manage expectations, aides are hoping the format for round two, a town hall, will help.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Bush is very comfortable talking to real people and talking to them about big issues of the day.
BASH: One issue Bush officials would rather not talk about, but camp Kerry is pouncing on, whether the White House brushed aside known doubts about Iraq's nuclear capability in the run-up to war.
In September, 2002 on CNN's "LATE EDITION" national security adviser Condoleezza Rice warned of aluminum tube shipments to Iraq. An exhaustive "New York Times" report says...
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BASH: Sorry about the technical difficulties there. But we were just talking about the fact that the White House today, the national security adviser, is discussing the fact that there was a "New York Times" article that says that perhaps she used, back in 2002, some disputed information when making the case that Iraq was trying to get aluminum tubes, trying to make the case that Iraq was trying to blup its nuclear capability. Today she simply said that that was one report from one department and that she was using information from a whole host of intelligence agencies -- Andrea.
KOPPEL: Dana, we know that in the first couple of days after the debate, the president was focusing exclusively on foreign policy. What can we expect the message to be in the president's focus to be as we head towards Friday's debate?
BASH: It's a good question, Andrea, because they really are trying to refocus, the people who cover him on domestic issues but also know they have to keep talking about Iraq. The issue of Iraq is something that John Kerry, they feel, was able to shift from the question of whether or not John Kerry is ready and he has a plan in Iraq, to back to what the president's decisions were.
So they're going to keep talking about that. Iraq will be, and foreign policy will be, a part of this town hall debate next Friday but also heavily on domestic issues, that's a lot of what the president is going to be talking about this week.
KOPPEL: Dana Bash at the White House, thanks very much.
BASH: Thanks.
KOPPEL: Well the Transportation Safety Administration is about to launch a radical change in aviation security. A new passenger profiling system called S.P.O.T. will be tested at two northeastern airports later this month. Details of the plan are outlined in an exclusive article on "Time" magazine's Web site. The author, Sally Donnelly, joins us now live. Sally, how is this program going to work?
SALLY DONNELLY, TIME: What it's going to be is TSA employees will start to look at passengers rather than sort of focusing on the things that they carry, they'll take a look at the passengers out there, identify people who are suspicious or acting unusually and ask them to be interviewed by local law enforcement.
KOPPEL: And why do they think that will be more effective than the racial profiling, or is it not necessarily just about effectiveness?
DONNELLY: It's certainly not racial profiling. In fact, it's race neutral. It's been extremely well-vetted before it's going to put into place. But what aviation security experts have been concerned about is this focus on things, on carry-ons, your grandmother carrying knitting needles. But more important, is who the people out there who are out there flying.
So the TSA employees will be looking for people who perhaps want to do harm and as any law enforcement official knows, criminals always case the joint before they want to commit the crime.
KOPPEL: That seems like a real kind of touchy-feely type of way of looking at security patrols. How do you know, I mean how -- how can you tell if somebody is a suspicious individual?
DONNELLY: Right, and some of it's gut. You know, gut instinct that police officers have. And it is a system, for example, that El Al, the Israeli airline, has been using for decades. Which is to -- it's a little more offensive, it's going on the offensive to look out for people entering their secure zone and are look for people who could obviously or potentially present a threat.
So I think it's a welcome change for the TSA. Rather than, sort of, sitting back and waiting for the people to come to them, it's going out and looking for them.
KOPPEL: So, the two airports that are going to be selected for this trial run, which airports are they? And how will they know if the program is successful?
DONNELLY: Well, the TSA hasn't named the airports yet, but they will be in the Northeastern United States. And they plan to roll the program out later this month.
They're going to have an analysis of it within 60 or 90 days after they implement the program and see what they're getting. In Boston, at Logan Airport, the Massachusetts State Police ran a similar program and they caught about 20 people who had committed various crimes before, were wanted on warrants. So, if you don't catch a terrorist or discourage them, you might have a beneficial effect in another way of getting other criminals.
KOPPEL: So, clearly, they're not just looking for knitting needles when they run this program? DONNELLY: Absolutely. And it's not going to be very intrusive. The police officers who will do the interviewing, it will be very informal to begin with. And then if there are other things that cause concern about an individual, they can raise the intensity, whether to detain them or if it needs to actually arrest the person.
KOPPEL: Sally Donnelly with "Time" magazine. Sounds like an interesting article. We'll all be looking for it in this coming week. Thanks so much for coming in.
DONNELLY: Thank you.
KOPPEL: While we focus on the presidential election here in the U.S., we shouldn't lose sight of Afghanistan's first post-Taliban election. It's coming up this Saturday, and the U.S. military is playing a big role in trying to ensure the election comes off smoothly. Find out more when CNN SUNDAY continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KOPPEL: Afghanistan is about to hold its first ever presidential election next Saturday, but so far, the process hasn't been trouble- free. CNN's Ryan Chilcote spent two weeks with the U.S. Army's 27th Infantry Regiment and has this exclusive report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The scouts are out front to find any threats to a convoy of politicians trailing them. This threat found them.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Out, hey, out!
CHILCOTE: Miraculously, no one was hurt from the 2 remote controlled anti-tank land mines. The convoy catches up and they move on.
It has been a dangerous journey through tribal regions near Afghanistan's border with Pakistan, but the governor is still alive for his first meeting with the locals. This is the governor's first visit to this part of the province. It's part of his effort to assert his authority here and encourage Afghans to participate in the elections.
The governor is joined by officials from the U.S. State Department and the U.N., the united front to show the international community support for the election process.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Governor Mongal is offering you a choice today. That choice is between the future and the past.
CHILCOTE: But they get a skeptical reception.
Only one of the three main tribes shows up, and the soldiers have to rush to the aid of local policemen under attack a few miles away. By the time they get there, the attackers' trail has gone cold. The problem in this part of the Pactica Province, that regular attention from U.S., Afghan and U.N. officials, the Taliban and Al Qaeda has been busy exerting their own influence.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There was a honeymoon period after the collapse of the Taliban, where many things could have been done, and I'm not saying it was possible to do it, but many of the things weren't done.
CHILCOTE: The governor got a warmer welcome in the next town. At least here, the elections appear poised to go forward. For the soldiers, it's a nerve-wracking job.
STAFF SGT. JASON WISTOSKI, U.S. ARMY: It's a traditional thing that we're always taught, man with gun, bad. Well, that does not apply here. We're back in the old west everybody has a gun here.
CHILCOTE: And there are many more guns across the border in Pakistan. That's where the soldiers believe the Al Qaeda leadership is, out of bounds, but not out of mind.
Ryan Chilcote, CNN, Southeastern Afghanistan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR, CNN SUNDAY: And with Afghanistan's first post-Taliban elections taking place next Saturday, CNN's Christiane Amanpour will have a week-long series of special reports live from Afghanistan, beginning tomorrow morning on "American Morning" and continuing throughout each day. That is only on CNN.
Just ahead it was a crucial voting block in the last presidential election. What about the military vote this year? Find out how the war in Iraq and John Kerry's military service are factoring into their decisions. What did the candidates learn from their first debate? Will that change? What do they need to do in their next debate?
Also if you thought the debate would be a godsend for the late night comedy shows you were right.
(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you say crush the terrorists, how exactly do you plan to do that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By working hard. Working Saturdays.
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KOPPEL: This week, we are taking a look at the military vote. Many analysts believe absentee ballots from military personnel overseas were crucial to George Bush's victory in 2000. But Democrats believe the Iraq war puts many of these votes up for grabs, and both campaigns are reaching out to military personnel, and their families. CNN's Alina Cho has the story.
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ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Steve Brozak is trying to win the hearts and minds of voters these days. A former Republican and former marine, Brozak switched parties after coming home from Iraq last year. He's now running for Congress in New Jersey as a Democrat. Brozak says he saw firsthand what it was like to fight a war he calls a lie.
STEVE BROZAK: You were hoping, you were believing that we'd have enough people coming in. You were hoping, you were believing that we'd have a real strategy, but none of it materialized.
VINCE MEEKO: What I saw there is a wonderful success story.
CHO: Vince Meeko served in Iraq, left and came back pro-Bush.
MEEKO: People in Iraq with tears in their eyes used to want to kiss my hand, kiss my shoulder or hug me and their best English say, "thank you Bush."
CHO: Why he's now working for the president's re-election campaign, reminding supporters to vote Bush.
CHO (on camera): While most polls show that military veterans tend to lean Republican, less is known about the political leanings of the active duty military. The war in Iraq has brought out strong feelings on both sides this year, and the candidates are courting the military vote like never before.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.: We got a great United States military.
CHO: The Bush campaign is well aware military absentee ballots in 2000 may have made the difference. The Pentagon is now encouraging troops overseas to vote.
SENATOR JOHN KERRY, PRESIDENTAL CANDIDATE: I'm John Jerry, and I'm reporting for duty.
CHO: Who could forget John Kerry's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention? Kerry supporters believe growing casualties in Iraq, expended troop deployments may swing voters their way.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Probably the Republicans will get a plurality of the military vote, but I think their margin will be substantially narrowed.
CHO: Why Bush, Kerry, even Meeko and Brozak want those in uniform to cast their vote.
Alina Cho, CNN, New York.
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KOPPEL: Did the first presidential debate change the voter's minds and what can we expect in the next showdown between President Bush and Senator Kerry? Joining ours "Political Roundtable" discussion from Pittsburgh is Kiron Skinner an assistant professor of political science and history at Carnegie-Mellon University, and here in Washington is Ann Lewis the national chair of the Democratic National Committee Women's Vote Center. Welcome to both of you ladies.
ANN LEWIS, NATIONAL CHAIR, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE WOMEN'S VOTE CENTER: Thank you.
KIRON SKINNER, ASST. PROFESSOR, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY: Thank you.
KOPPEL: I'd like to begin with you, Professor Skinner and ask you considering what the latest "Newsweek" poll post debate is showing, that the gap has obviously disappeared between President Bush and Senator Kerry can we expect looking ahead to Friday's debate President Bush to be tweaking his performance?
SKINNER: I think we'll probably see him tweaking his performance. I think what we saw that he did so fabulously in the first debate was that he really went back to what he talked about during the 2000 campaign, in fact, as Governor Bush. He outlined his ideas about what it means to be the preeminent power in the world and he talked about the responsibility of being the power to protect other countries, to promote freedom and democracy.
He did a good job at that high altitude. I think what he will do in the next debate is be more specific about his policies and I think we'll see him doing that. But I think he really wanted to establish the kind of grand strategy that has driven the United States since 9/11 and he did that very well.
KOPPEL: Ms. Lewis, looking at, as somebody who is a long time experience in the political world, what do you thinks the aides to President Bush and Senator Kerry are telling each candidate right now?
LEWIS: Well, I can tell you something about what the aides to Senator Kerry are saying, because they're saying, this was a very good beginning, more than 60 million people who saw for themselves the clear differences between the candidates who heard John Kerry talk about national security, about his own determination to defeat terrorism, and finish the job in Iraq.
But now, in this next town hall, because the issues will be broader, it is a chance also to talk about the domestic agenda, to talk about health care, to talk about jobs, and how we've got to start bringing good jobs here at home, so what's important is that this is an opportunity to say to the American people, you have a right to expect your president to work on both agendas at once.
We can't be strong abroad if we're not also strong at home. That's going to be a theme for the next debate. KOPPEL: Professor Skinner, a lot of folks going into Thursday night's debate thought that this was a give me for President Bush, that if he won this debate he would have knocked Senator Kerry out of the race. What do you think will be the key messages that we're going to hear from President Bush on Friday?
SKINNER: Again, I think he's going to be specific about his policies. You know, in the past month, he's been talking about jobs, education, health care, and we're going to hear more of that in great detail in this next debate. What we saw also in the first one and I think we'll see some of it but perhaps in a different way, in terms of his style and presentation, we saw a president who has been deeply affected by and positively emboldened by the awesome responsibility of fighting the global war on terror.
And I think we saw his emotion and his concern for the country in the first debate and the work that he's done, and I think he'll talk about the domestic connections in very clear terms, coming into the next discussion.
KOPPEL: I think that some of the post-debate polling that was done reflects, you mentioned the awesome responsibility that President Bush feels, but I think some voters were actually turned off by the president's body language. Do you think that we will see a kinder, gentler President Bush on Friday?
SKINNER: You know, President Bush is who he is. He's a very natural person and politician as such, and I think Americans, you know, the polls are so close right now, and I tend not to read much into them with the numbers, with this kind of close margin, but Americans have appreciated President Bush for being a very natural person in his responses and in his self-presentation.
To them and to heads of government, they've applauded him for that in the past and I think we will see him being himself again, and he will probably have some different stylish issues this time but I think he really is appreciated by Americans for the natural way that he presents himself.
KOPPEL: Ann Lewis --
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KOPPEL: I was just going to say, Ann, you spend most of your time focusing on the women's vote. Where are women coming down with the two candidates?
LEWIS: Well, I was starting to say that if in fact that George Bush we saw at the debate is who he really is, that came as something of a surprise I think to a lot of people and I know from what I've been hearing the last couple of days of particular concern to women who thought that was not the image they want of their president.
So I'll tell you right now, I think the president's aides are showing him tapes of this debate and they're going to suggest a different kind of style and a different personality. When we see them on stage on Friday.
KOPPEL: You know, I heard very -- if I could just come in for a minute. I heard very different things, in fact I heard many things some who said that they weren't quite comfortable with his presentation, but some who said they felt that Kerry was a bit stayed as well, but others said they thought President Bush really connected and he seemed likeable and believable and friendly and concerned.
So I think there are many anecdotes out there and perspectives, and I think we want to see what's going to happen in the next debate. We can't really predict, and part of what's good about the debates is that we do have some natural responses coming forward, and some unexpected events, and that's what we want to happen.
KOPPEL: I'd lea like for our last question, ladies, to look at the women voters that are out there. What is the most important block right now in terms of lower, middle, upper close, working moms, single mothers, Ann why don't you take that one?
LEWIS: Let me start with two very important groups. The first are single women, we would say women on their own. We know that right now, single women, who are, well, potentially 43 percent of women, in fact, living by themselves, giving John Kerry a 25-point margin in some of the latest polls. For us, what's important is to increase the turnout among single women.
They are very concerned about issues like health care, very concerned about jobs, equal pay. This president George Bush has really taken us backward on equal pay. So again, I think you're going to hear about the economy. You're going to hear about health care. That's of concern to these women. The second --
KOPPEL: OK, Ann I just need to give Professor Skinner an opportunity to have a closing thought there.
SKINNER: Yes, an important question. I think there's been a lot of discussion about security moms and I think President Bush made it very clear in this first debate and in other speeches that he's given that he takes seriously the notion in western political philosophy that the first responsibility of the sovereign is self-protection and self-survival and that he sees that as his job for the United States and security moms have been very supportive of President Bush.
KOPPEL: Yes, that is one thing that is certainly resonated with those mothers. Professor Kiron Skinner, I want to thank you for joining us from Pittsburgh.
SKINNER: Thank you.
KOPPEL: And Ann Lewis here in Washington, thank you both for coming in today.
LEWIS: My pleasure.
KOPPEL: And you can learn more about the Democratic presidential nominee tonight on "CNN Presents" Candy Crowley's profile of John Kerry begins at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, and next Sunday, "CNN Presents" runs of John King's look at the mission of George W. Bush.
The first Monday in October is tomorrow, and that means the start of a new Supreme Court session. We'll look at some of the cases. The Supremes will hear.
And Billy Joel ties the knot again. We'll have details when we come back.
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KOPPEL: In the Middle East Israel's prime minister says his country's biggest military offensive in Gaza in four years could escalate. At least six Palestinians died today, including two teenage boys. CNN's Ben Wedeman has the latest.
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BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Into its fifth bloody day, operation days of penitence could stretch into weeks. With more Israelis forces deploying around Gaza Jabalya refuse camp. They may be settling in for a long stay.
Prime Minister Aerial Sharon is saying Sunday the offensive will last as long as it takes to stop Palestinian militants from firing Kasam rockets who made missiles into Israel.
TIGAL FALMOR, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTRY: The operation will take place as long as there are Kasams, rockets, mortars coming out of the Gaza strip. The operation is intended to stop the firing of the rockets and missiles, and it will stop as soon as this firing will stop.
WEDEMAN: The Palestinian death toll has topped 60, with more than 250 wounded. The fighting in Jabalya, the biggest refugee camp in Gaza and home to more than 100,000 people has tapered off. The Palestinian militants vow they've only just begun to fight.
"We will not let Sharon harvest any positive outcomes from this campaign," says this Islamic Jihad spokesman Halid Buttes (ph). On the contrary this campaign will fail. Israel has released an aerial surveillance video which it claims shows Palistians loading a United Nations vehicle with Kasam rocket. The U.N. is investigating but has its doubts.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because the Kasam rocket as it was implied to be weighs between 32 and 52 kilos. No man is easily going to carry that in his hand as it was carried. So it cannot possibly be a heavy object. It is in all likelihood if anybody looks twice at the picture a stretcher a portable stretcher that was folded.
WEDEMAN: Despite the Israeli offensive, several Kasams have been fired into Israel since "operation days of we tenatians (ph) began Tuesday evening.
WEDEMAN (on camera): The immediate pretext for the Gaza operation is to stop the missile attacks. But many observers here believe the real purpose is to deal a crushing blow to the Palistains resistance before Israel pulls out of Gaza sometime next year and that is a far more ambitious and some would argue impossible goal.
Ben Wedeman, CNN, Jerusalem.
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KOPPEL: Time now for a quick look at news across America. A small tour boat operating in an alligator-infested swamp capsized last night in Crown Point, Louisiana. All 16 passengers and the crew were taken to the hospital, three in critical condition. Local authorities say the flat bottom aluminum boat somehow flipped over in shallow water.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu is appearing in an off Broadway play in New York. The Nobel Peace Prize winner plays a judge in a play called "Guantanamo: Honor Bound to Defend Freedom" the play explores the plight of British detainees at the U.S. naval base in Cuba.
And piano man Billy Joel crooned, "I do" for the third time. He exchanged vows with 23-year-old Kate Lee last night at his Long Island home. The couple has been dating since last year. Lee is a television restaurant reviewer.
The U.S. Supreme Court starts a new term tomorrow. Justices will be ruling on everything from federal sentencing rules to the medical use of marijuana. CNN's Kathleen Koch has a preview.
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KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Crime and punishment, the focus of many cases the Supreme Court will tackle this term. On their first day, justices will consider whether federal guidelines established to ensure fair and uniform sentencing are constitutional. Some argue they are not, because they allow judges to increase sentencing based on factors not proven to a jury.
The court in June ruled similar Washington State sentencing guidelines were unconstitutional. Most agree striking down federal guidelines would radically change the prosecution of future cases.
PETER WHITE, FMR. FEDERAL PROSECUTOR: It will be a brand new day in terms of sentencing federal criminal defendants, and it will be back to the days when judges had a lot more discretion.
KOCH: And past sentences still on appeal could be reduced like the 18-month jail term imposed on investment banker Frank Quattrone for obstruction of justice. In week two, the Supreme Court will revisit its 1989 ruling that juvenile killers can face the death penalty. The basis, whether evolving standards of decency now make such executions cruel and unusual punishment.
BILL MOFFITT, CRIMINAL DEFENSE LAWYER: Atalences (ph) minds work differently than adults' minds. We know those things now, so should those things now be considered in whether or not it is a decent thing to do or does it evolve, does it violate evolving standards of decency to execute a child?
KOCH: In a legal tug-of-war between Washington and the states, the court will also examine whether Congress can override state laws allowing the medicinal use of marijuana. In November, two unreasonable search and seizure cases, one on whether officers during a routine traffic stop can use drug-sniffing dogs, another examining whether suspects can be held in handcuffs for hours during a police search.
KOCH (on camera): Experts predict a continuing tendency to view cases through the prism of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Supreme Court last term deciding five police search cases all in favor of law enforcement.
EDWARD LAZARUS, SUPREME COURT ANALYST: I don't expect this upcoming term to have wide swings one way or another in the major areas of law.
KOCH: Kathleen Koch, CNN, Washington.
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KOPPEL: The political pundits have already given us their views on the presidential debates. Well, now, we get the oh, so important comedic analysis. Our favorite comedians are ripping into the podium performance of President Bush and Senator John Kerry. Their analysis now in our late night laughs.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you say crush the terrorists, how exactly do you plan to do that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By working hard. Working Saturdays. Came in on Sunday once.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The fact of the matter is, I have consistently supported the war in front of pro audiences and condemned it when speaking to groups that oppose it. That is not flip-flopping. That is pandering and Americans deserve a president who knows the difference. Thank you.
KERRY: Before I answer further, let me thank you, for moderating. I want to thank the University of Miami for hosting us.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Smoke 'em if you got 'em. It's gallon to be a long night!
BUSH: This is a global effort. We're facing a, a group of folks who have such hatred in their heart.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Group of folks? We're facing a group of folks? A group of folks is what you run into at the Olive Garden.
(END VIDEO CLIP) KOPPEL: That's it for us. "Next@CNN" is coming up, and here's Daniel Seiberg with a preview.
DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ahead on "Next@CNN" a hair- raising ride into space puts a private company one step closer to a $10 million prize.
Deforestation takes the claim blame for Haiti's huge death toll from tropical storm Jeanne.
KOPPEL: At 6:00 p.m. Eastern Carol Lynn will have the new CNN/USA Today Gallup presidential poll hot off the presses. Plus reaction from the campaign.
And tonight on "People in the News" profiles of the number two men Vice President Dick Chaney and Senator John Edwards. Thanks so much for joining us; I will back with the headlines after a quick break.
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