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CNN Live At Daybreak
'Hot Topics'; 'America's Voice'; 'Scorecard'
Aired October 04, 2004 - 06:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: There we go. Just in case you're keeping track, 29 days and counting until the presidential election. And if you have not registered to vote just yet, the deadline is today in these states. There are a lot of them. Washington, D.C. is also included.
President Bush campaigns today in Iowa. While in Des Moines, he will sign into law bills extending some tax cuts that would have expired at this year's end. Now, this afternoon there is an "ask President Bush" session in Clive, Iowa.
Meanwhile, John Kerry begins the day with a town hall meeting in New Hampshire. Then he meets with some clergy in Philadelphia, and he spends the night in Coralville, Iowa, near Iowa City.
So, what do the presidential and vice presidential candidates have in store for us in their debates? That is one of our hot topics this morning.
And joining us now is Vaughn Ververs, editor of "The Hotline."
Good morning to you.
VAUGHN VERVERS, EDITOR, "THE HOTLINE": Good morning, Betty.
NGUYEN: Well, we've been talking about the polls this morning, the Gallup poll that's out. Each in the presidential race has 49 percentage points. Now, that's a dead heat. Are you surprised at all following last week's debate?
VERVERS: Well, that shows you that those polls had something to them. Most people did see that John Kerry hadn't won that debate.
And I think more than anything, what it did is it sort of bolstered him among Democrats themselves, who had been sort of disheartened over the last few weeks. And with a gap in the polls, they didn't feel like Kerry was quite hitting his stride. I think they really became energized after his performance and probably came back home. He probably won some Independents from there, too.
NGUYEN: Kerry was energized with this first debate. But in this town hall forum for the next one, do you think Bush is going to come out swinging?
VERVERS: Well, it's interesting that that's the debate that originally the Bush campaign had gone into the negotiations over the debates not wanting to do. Now, they're looking at it really as a real opportunity for the president. He does pretty good in these formats, but, you know, it will depend a lot on what he questions are from the audience members. But he does a much better job connecting one-on-one with people than Senator Kerry does sometimes.
So, now the debate they didn't want to do originally they see as a real opportunity for them.
NGUYEN: Let's talk about the vice presidential debates, which take place tomorrow. Per Cheney's wishes, both men will be seated at a desk instead of at a podium. Are you expecting, though, even though this is the one and only debate there will be some fireworks between the two?
VERVERS: I imagine it will be very contentious between these two gentlemen. The contrasts are going to be quite amazing.
You've got Senator Edwards, who is the one-term senator from North Carolina, really young-looking, energetic. And you've got Dick Cheney, who has been Washington since the '70s, sort of the elder statesman of things. But both men are probably going to go after it. I expect Edwards to keep up the attack on the administration's record.
NGUYEN: Let's talk about that, because Cheney is a skilled one- on-one debater. But Edwards, of course, has experience as a trial lawyer. How does that stack up to Cheney?
VERVERS: Well, you know, Cheney is not going to be having any problems with cutaway reaction shots the way that President Bush did. He's very calm. Even in the most contentious times, and you'd think that he might get rattled a little bit. He's very -- he's just a calming presence, very grandfatherly, and he'll go about his defending the record like that. And Edwards is going to have to be the aggressor. So, it's really going to be a great contrast of these two men.
NGUYEN: All right, Vaughn Ververs with "The Hotline" this morning for some insight. Thank you so much for that.
Now, we want to get to the nitty-gritty of the polls we've been talking about all morning, giving each 49 percent and call it even.
In Princeton, New Jersey, the Gallup Poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, joins us now live with the latest on this.
So, it's a dead heat, is that correct, Frank?
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Yes. It couldn't be much more dead-heatish, so to speak, than it is, Betty. Right now it's 49-49.
This is not unusual that in a debate period of time we see quite a bit of change. In fact, all fall it's not unusual to see change up and down in polls. After all, that is what's campaigning is about. It's supposed to be having people focus and perhaps changing their mind as messages come through. Three polls in September had put Bush ahead, we know in CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup polls. But now we're right at 49-49 of likely voters, essentially back where we started pre-Republican Convention back there in August.
Another key measure that we follow here very closely when an incumbent is running for re-election is job approval ratings, and Bush had had 52-52-54. It's always good to be above 50 percent when you're an incumbent, but now that's come right down to exactly 50 percent.
So, Bush is right on that line, that symbolic line of 50 percent job approval rating as of this point -- Betty.
NGUYEN: Hey, Frank, we know the debate had a big impact on those numbers. But did it also affect how the candidates are perceived on the issues?
NEWPORT: It did. And there is some good news for the Bush administration here. He is still leading Kerry when we asked Americans, who can do the best job handling Iraq? Now, that's important, because much of the debate focused on Iraq.
Now, to be sure, Bush had pulled out ahead of Kerry on Iraq in a couple of polls in September after the Republican Convention. But he's now come back down some. But it's still 51 percent of Americans say Bush could better handle Iraq, 44 Kerry. So, it's about a 7-point lead. It has diminished, but still Bush is ahead.
On the economy, however, this is traditionally where Democrats do better, domestic issues. One poll there Bush had moved a little ahead of Kerry, but now it's kind of back closer to where it was: 51-44. The blue is on top there, Americans more likely to say that John Kerry can do a better job with the economy than Bush.
And that's important, Betty, because this coming debate and the one after that are likely to focus quite a bit -- or the third one almost exclusively on domestic and economic-type issues.
NGUYEN: Absolutely. And with all of these numbers, Frank, does this change the expectations for Friday night's debate in Saint Louis?
NEWPORT: Yes. And that may not be great news for Kerry. I mean, Bush was told -- Americans told us prior to the first debate, Betty, that Bush could do the better job. So, expectations were high. And, of course, he didn't meet them. Our debate watcher poll said that Kerry won.
Now, it's Kerry, 48-41, Americans think he will do better in this coming town hall meeting, and that's good news for the Bush administration. In the weird world of politics, as we've told you before, you'd rather be low in expectations going into these debates, because then you can surprise people.
NGUYEN: Editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, thanks so much, Frank Newport. More debating and debate -- debating the debate, we should say, and that's coming up, including one guest who says he has figured out how to predict presidential elections. Oh, really? We'll put him to the test.
And another step toward the history books this morning. We'll talk to Miles O'Brien, who is awaiting the countdown to a very important takeoff.
But first, here is a look at what else is making news this Monday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NGUYEN: Well, consumers want high quality and high value in their cars, and a budget brand from South Korea is meeting those needs.
Carrie Lee has the story. She's at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square.
Maybe I need to buy a new car, Carrie.
CARRIE LEE, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, a lot of people may be interested in this, Betty: Hyundai. "USA Today" is reporting that a new survey finds Hyundai, the budget brand from South Korea, came in second only to Toyota's luxury brand, Lexus, in a survey from Strategic Vision, and this is an automotive consulting firm.
Now, the company asked 74,000 owners to rate the overall value of their new cars and trucks, including things like price, affordability, resale value, expected reliability. And Hyundai scored well basically because the brand's vehicle quality has improved. Models have a long warranty. They're affordable. Very different from the late-1990s when Hyundai was plagued with electrical and engine problems. They've since made quite a few improvements.
And Hyundai has actually scored very well in other recent automotive surveys, including one from JD Power, another from "Consumer Reports."
So, it looks like Hyundai is doing well, and we'll see if people here continue to snap them up -- Betty.
NGUYEN: Hey, quickly, how are the futures looking today?
LEE: The futures are looking very strong this morning. Oil, by the way, Friday crossed above $50 a barrel, settled above that amount. Now, oil is coming down below that $50 mark, and it looks like that's the big reason for the futures rally. So, futures are looking strong.
AirTran Airways is one stock to watch today. On Friday, saying September traffic rose 4.5 percent, and that stock could see some action today. We'll see. Back to you.
NGUYEN: All right, Carrie Lee at the Nasdaq, thank you so much for that.
Bush or Kerry? Who will win? You might think it's way too soon to answer that question. But Ray Fair does not. The Yale economics professor has created an equation. It's been pretty good at predicting at presidential races. Who does he think will take this year's vote?
Well, he joins us now from Yale with the answers to all of this.
Good morning to you, Professor Fair.
RAY FAIR, YALE UNIVERSITY: Good morning.
NGUYEN: Well, first of all, in the most simplest of terms, if you would, please, tell us exactly, how does this equation work?
FAIR: Well, I'm trying to explain voting behavior back to 1916, and I'm trying to explain the share of the two-party vote that the incumbent party gets. And so, using a statistical technique to examine the regularities, looking for regularities in the past data, I tried to find what seems to explain the vote share.
Not surprisingly, the economy has an important effect on how people vote and also the incumbent information. If the incumbent is running again, as in this case, he has a slight head start.
So, it's the economy plus the incumbent information that is used to try to then explain the percentage of the vote share each election.
NGUYEN: OK. If that's the equation, what about the war in Iraq? Does that factor in?
FAIR: Things like war, personalities, how you do in debates, et cetera, all is the unexplained part of this. It does into what we call the error term in this analysis.
So, on average, the equation makes an error of about 2.4 percentage points each election. So...
NGUYEN: And your accurate rate with this equation?
FAIR: About 2.4 percent, yes.
NGUYEN: Oh, OK. I thought that was the error rate. OK, good.
FAIR: The accuracy rate, yes.
NGUYEN: All right. That's not too bad. So, without further ado, we don't want to keep people waiting any longer. What does your equation say for this election?
FAIR: Well, the economy is doing reasonably well of the variables I'm using. The inflation rate, which seems to matter, historically is low. The growth rate this year and output in the GDP is reasonably good. And Bush has some incumbency information in his favor, because he's an incumbent running again.
So, it says that Bush should have a fairly easy time winning. The prediction is for about 57 and a half percent of the two-party vote that Bush should get. So, contrary to the current Gallup Poll that you mentioned earlier, the equation is predicting that Bush should win by a reasonable amount.
NGUYEN: Quickly, I am out of time, but I have to ask you this. I've got to throw it in here. You say Bush is going to win. That is your prediction. But you are a Kerry supporter. Does that factor into this equation? Can you skew the equation?
FAIR: No. In this business, you have to keep your political views out of the analysis; otherwise, it's not scientific at all. So, no, I don't -- there is no way to skew it.
There are some caveats, however, that it could be the equations makes this time for reasons of Iraq and other issues a much larger error than it has historically. So, even though historically it's done well, you never know whether it will, in this time, things will be quite different, because of something like Iraq. And it will be way off.
So, I don't want to leave you with too much confidence that this is actually going to turn out to be correct.
NGUYEN: Well, Professor Fair, I have a prediction. Do you know what that is?
FAIR: What's that?
NGUYEN: We're done. We're out of time.
FAIR: OK.
NGUYEN: Thanks for your information this morning. You predict Bush will take the election. We'll see how it all shakes out. Thank you.
CNN will bring you live coverage of the vice presidential debate Tuesday starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. And the same goes for Friday when President Bush and Senator Kerry square off again. So be sure to tune in to CNN for debate coverage both nights.
Your news, money, weather and sports. The time right now is 6:44 Eastern. Here's what's new this morning.
Central Baghdad was rocked by a pair of car bombs today. Some reports say at least 16 people were killed, while other reports list the death toll at 20. As many as 85 others were injured.
Martha Stewart has been partying during her last few days of freedom. The "New York Post" reports that Stewart went to the Bahamas for the weekend to attend a friend's wedding. She is scheduled to begin her five-month stay in a West Virginia prison. That starts on Friday.
In money, "Shark Tale" makes a big splash at the box office. The animated fish story devours an estimated $4.1 million as the weekend's top film.
In culture, I smell a Nobel Prize. Two Americans were awarded the Nobel Prize in medicine this morning. Richard Axsell (ph) and Lyndon Buck (ph) were honored for their work with odor receptors in the human sense of smell.
In sports now, is Tiger Woods getting married? Newspapers in Barbados say that Woods and his fiance, Ellen Nordegren (ph) -- you're going to have to help me with that name, Chad, I know you're a big golfer -- will be married this week on the island. But Woods says he is going there just to vacation. Do you believe it?
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I do.
NGUYEN: OK.
MYERS: Not.
NGUYEN: I was about to say. There is too much talk surrounding this. I don't know if it's just a vacation.
MYERS: Yes. She's not a golfer actually. She was a nanny for Jasper Parnavic (ph). And they met on the tour.
NGUYEN: And a model, don't forget that.
MYERS: Exactly.
NGUYEN: I mean, just look at her.
MYERS: Well, of course, she's obviously -- I'll leave that out. My wife is watching.
NGUYEN: Your wife is watching.
(WEATHER REPORT)
NGUYEN: Well, the next step into space is set to take place today. A $10 million prize is at stake as SpaceShipOne tries to make history once again.
For a preview of the second space flight, we head out to Mojave, California, where CNN's space correspondent Miles O'Brien is standing by very early this morning.
Good morning to you -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN SPACE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Betty.
It's a little more than three hours away before SpaceShipOne heads off. Are you going to be watching?
NGUYEN: Of course, I'm going to be watching. I just don't want to see what I saw last week when it started to roll.
O'BRIEN: Yes, the roll. That was kind of a big deal, wasn't it? It kind of took our breath away for all of us who had a chance to watch it. They think they've got it figured out. They think it was basically a situation where you have to fly this particular craft -- because it's relatively unstable and tends to roll you have to fly a very specific path up. And they've modified the flight plan a little bit. And the hope is they won't have that roll.
But the bottom line is, it rolled, you know, beyond the atmosphere. And because it was beyond the atmosphere, it didn't break up with an aerodynamic load or whatever is the term would be. And so they're not too worried about it if a roll begins.
But nevertheless, for you and I watching it from the ground, it's quite an exciting sight, isn't it?
NGUYEN: Absolutely. And let's talk about the money at stake here: $10 million. While that's a big prize, this project is costing them, what, some $20 million? But it's not about the money, is it, Miles?
O'BRIEN: Well, no. No, this is just the beginning. This is just the beginning. Of course, the (AUDIO GAP) project, Paul Allen, $10 million, he probably has that lying around in change, right?
So, this is definitely not about the money. Of course, a 40- percent return on his $25 million investment after a couple of years spent working on it isn't bad, I suppose.
The idea here is to spur this conversation you and I are having in talking about the possibility of civilian space flight and coming up with a tourist industry where regular people, not just multimillionaires, could possibly train for and then take a trip to space. That's what this is all about. He's a crusader for that, as is Burt Rutan and (AUDIO GAP) that designed and built this craft.
NGUYEN: Miles, we will be watching today to see if it happens for a second time. Thank you.
O'BRIEN: You're welcome.
NGUYEN: And we'll let you join Miles for that live launch coming up a little later this morning. Our live coverage begins at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time during "AMERICAN MORNING." So stay tuned to watch this space.
Now, day of hard knocks and historic moments on the grid iron, and one star of the NFL proves he's more than just a running man.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NGUYEN: It's time now to talk a little sports. Joining us here in the living room is CNN's sports contributor Chris Cotter.
CHRIS COTTER, CNN SPORTS CONTRIBUTOR: Cozy.
NGUYEN: Good morning to you -- Chris.
COTTER: Good morning. I spent a lot of time in my living room yesterday.
NGUYEN: On the couch, didn't you?
COTTER: Exactly. Flipping the channels.
MYERS: A great weekend, man.
NGUYEN: I loved the games.
COTTER: A full day of sports, but a full day of football as well. And we've kind of hit the quarter point of the NFL season. You know, four games in, and we've got a couple of surprise teams out there that...
NGUYEN: Yes, Pittsburgh.
COTTER: ... doing very well. Pittsburgh is certainly one of them at 3-1. I think nobody really expected anything out of this team. But they play in a division...
MYERS: Exactly.
COTTER: Yes, and Pittsburgh plays in a division that you can kind of move around in a little bit. No one is really going to run and hide. And yesterday they got a big win against Cincinnati. And interestingly enough, how they're doing it they've got a new quarterback now, a rookie out of Miami of Ohio. He's their first round draft choice. Tommy Maddox goes down with an injury. He steps in, and he's getting the job done.
NGUYEN: Yes.
COTTER: He's 2-0 as a starter, and they're going to stick with him.
MYERS: Yes.
NGUYEN: And then the Giants, they're also doing well, aren't they?
MYERS: I think we have video of the Colts.
NGUYEN: Oh, we do? OK.
(CROSSTALK)
MYERS: Yes.
COTTER: Yes, we're actually bouncing around a little bit. But, yes, the Colts got a big win as well yesterday against Jacksonville. Here, you see it, and an interception here by Gerald Smith (ph)...
NGUYEN: Wow!
COTTER: ... with the pick. He wasn't even looking. And that was a huge play, because it gave Jacksonsville a chance to score at the 1. You see the first down line there, the yellow.
Jacksonville decides to go up top Jimmy Smith with a 40-yard touchdown catch on this one on fourth and one in the fourth quarter. They get the two-point conversion. They tie the game, but Edgerrin James scores a lot of touchdowns, and he scores one here for Indianapolis. They go up on top, and they beat Jacksonville.
So, both teams are 3-1. Jacksonsville had been 3-0, and it scored fewer points than any other 3-0 team in the history of the NFL. Their offense isn't clicking, but the defense is. Unfortunately, if you play a team like Indianapolis, their offense is just a little bit down.
NGUYEN: Let's talk about Cincinnati.
COTTER: Cincinnati, yes. They were playing Pittsburgh, and an interesting highlight in this one. I talked to you about Ben Roethlisberger, the quarterback for Pittsburgh. But here, you have Carson Palmer, their young quarterback out of USC. Who does he throw it to? The other team. But a guy who used to be his teammate at USC. They were roommates at USC.
NGUYEN: Was it a lapse in memory?
COTTER: He threw at Paul Omalo (ph). And look at this run back here. And who does he hit? Boom!
MYERS: Rumbling, bumbling and stumbling.
COTTER: His hold roommate, Carson Palmer. He drops it at the goal line to get in. I'm sure he had a few words to say about that.
And this is Roethlisberger, the rookie, throwing to Verron Haynes from, of course, the guy from Georgia there with a touchdown. And Pittsburgh gets the win. They're 3-0 on the season, a surprise 3-0.
MYERS: The New York Giants.
NGUYEN: Yes, I was going to say you had been mentioning surprises.
MYERS: Yes.
NGUYEN: And the Lions were a big surprise.
COTTER: The Giants were a big surprise. They go into Green Bay and beat the Packers. And Brett Favre in this one suffering a concussion, and you'll see it right here, Lee Joseph on the sack. Favre trying to roll out and make something happen. He gets dropped, suffering a concussion, but he comes back a play later... MYERS: Here we go!
COTTER: ... and says I've got to get in there. This is fourth down as well. He goes on top to Javon Walker for the touchdown.
MYERS: Touchdown!
COTTER: Unfortunately, they found out it was a concussion, and he had to come out of the game. And it was the Giants and Tiki Barber right here with a huge day. He had 182 yards on the ground, and he goes 53 yards for the score, and the Giants gets above him.
MYERS: How about a team that hasn't lost in probably as many times as we've haven't seen hurricanes? The Patriots.
COTTER: Yes, the Patriots have not lost...
MYERS: Unbelievable.
COTTER: ... in 18 games. That ties an NFL record. They go into Buffalo yesterday and get the win. Here you go, though. This is a return for a kick by the Buffalo Bills, some strange special teams play in this game. But Terrence McGee takes this one 98 yards for the score for the Bills. They go up top early. And in typical Patriots fashion, they had to fight back in this one, scratch and claw their way back into it.
Watch this, though. This is a great big punt. Oh, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and Bryan Morman (ph) is going to run for 44 yards.
MYERS: It was Australian rules football, because you've got to bounce it every once in a while, right?
COTTER: Look at that style, though. He's a born running back, right? And they tripped the first down, not only draw it up, but they'll take it. But eventually, as we said, it is the Patriots. And it's going to David Patton for this score.
NGUYEN: Oh, I hate this. We're out of time.
MYERS: Yes.
NGUYEN: But Emmitt Smith, my former Dallas Cowboy.
COTTER: Emmitt Smith had a huge day yesterday.
MYERS: He did.
COTTER: And he passed for a touchdown in his first pass in history.
NGUYEN: He passed.
COTTER: His first pass in his entire NFL career. The all-time leading rusher throws a touchdown pass.
NGUYEN: Now, that's a player, yes.
COTTER: He has a perfect passer rating.
MYERS: Yes.
COTTER: One with a touchdown, right?
NGUYEN: Exactly. Way to go, Emmitt. All right, thanks, Chris Cotter.
COTTER: Sure.
NGUYEN: We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MYERS: All right, are you ready? Here are your questions for today's coffee quiz mug. When will the Nobel Peace Prize be announced? They've already announced one of those Nobel Prizes, but not the Peace Prize. And who is the pilot of that aircraft competing for the X-Prize? We need his name.
And we'll name the winner tomorrow. I need both answers...
NGUYEN: In order to win.
MYERS: CNN.
NGUYEN: All right. Well, that does it for us. "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now. Thanks for joining us.
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Aired October 4, 2004 - 06:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: There we go. Just in case you're keeping track, 29 days and counting until the presidential election. And if you have not registered to vote just yet, the deadline is today in these states. There are a lot of them. Washington, D.C. is also included.
President Bush campaigns today in Iowa. While in Des Moines, he will sign into law bills extending some tax cuts that would have expired at this year's end. Now, this afternoon there is an "ask President Bush" session in Clive, Iowa.
Meanwhile, John Kerry begins the day with a town hall meeting in New Hampshire. Then he meets with some clergy in Philadelphia, and he spends the night in Coralville, Iowa, near Iowa City.
So, what do the presidential and vice presidential candidates have in store for us in their debates? That is one of our hot topics this morning.
And joining us now is Vaughn Ververs, editor of "The Hotline."
Good morning to you.
VAUGHN VERVERS, EDITOR, "THE HOTLINE": Good morning, Betty.
NGUYEN: Well, we've been talking about the polls this morning, the Gallup poll that's out. Each in the presidential race has 49 percentage points. Now, that's a dead heat. Are you surprised at all following last week's debate?
VERVERS: Well, that shows you that those polls had something to them. Most people did see that John Kerry hadn't won that debate.
And I think more than anything, what it did is it sort of bolstered him among Democrats themselves, who had been sort of disheartened over the last few weeks. And with a gap in the polls, they didn't feel like Kerry was quite hitting his stride. I think they really became energized after his performance and probably came back home. He probably won some Independents from there, too.
NGUYEN: Kerry was energized with this first debate. But in this town hall forum for the next one, do you think Bush is going to come out swinging?
VERVERS: Well, it's interesting that that's the debate that originally the Bush campaign had gone into the negotiations over the debates not wanting to do. Now, they're looking at it really as a real opportunity for the president. He does pretty good in these formats, but, you know, it will depend a lot on what he questions are from the audience members. But he does a much better job connecting one-on-one with people than Senator Kerry does sometimes.
So, now the debate they didn't want to do originally they see as a real opportunity for them.
NGUYEN: Let's talk about the vice presidential debates, which take place tomorrow. Per Cheney's wishes, both men will be seated at a desk instead of at a podium. Are you expecting, though, even though this is the one and only debate there will be some fireworks between the two?
VERVERS: I imagine it will be very contentious between these two gentlemen. The contrasts are going to be quite amazing.
You've got Senator Edwards, who is the one-term senator from North Carolina, really young-looking, energetic. And you've got Dick Cheney, who has been Washington since the '70s, sort of the elder statesman of things. But both men are probably going to go after it. I expect Edwards to keep up the attack on the administration's record.
NGUYEN: Let's talk about that, because Cheney is a skilled one- on-one debater. But Edwards, of course, has experience as a trial lawyer. How does that stack up to Cheney?
VERVERS: Well, you know, Cheney is not going to be having any problems with cutaway reaction shots the way that President Bush did. He's very calm. Even in the most contentious times, and you'd think that he might get rattled a little bit. He's very -- he's just a calming presence, very grandfatherly, and he'll go about his defending the record like that. And Edwards is going to have to be the aggressor. So, it's really going to be a great contrast of these two men.
NGUYEN: All right, Vaughn Ververs with "The Hotline" this morning for some insight. Thank you so much for that.
Now, we want to get to the nitty-gritty of the polls we've been talking about all morning, giving each 49 percent and call it even.
In Princeton, New Jersey, the Gallup Poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, joins us now live with the latest on this.
So, it's a dead heat, is that correct, Frank?
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Yes. It couldn't be much more dead-heatish, so to speak, than it is, Betty. Right now it's 49-49.
This is not unusual that in a debate period of time we see quite a bit of change. In fact, all fall it's not unusual to see change up and down in polls. After all, that is what's campaigning is about. It's supposed to be having people focus and perhaps changing their mind as messages come through. Three polls in September had put Bush ahead, we know in CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup polls. But now we're right at 49-49 of likely voters, essentially back where we started pre-Republican Convention back there in August.
Another key measure that we follow here very closely when an incumbent is running for re-election is job approval ratings, and Bush had had 52-52-54. It's always good to be above 50 percent when you're an incumbent, but now that's come right down to exactly 50 percent.
So, Bush is right on that line, that symbolic line of 50 percent job approval rating as of this point -- Betty.
NGUYEN: Hey, Frank, we know the debate had a big impact on those numbers. But did it also affect how the candidates are perceived on the issues?
NEWPORT: It did. And there is some good news for the Bush administration here. He is still leading Kerry when we asked Americans, who can do the best job handling Iraq? Now, that's important, because much of the debate focused on Iraq.
Now, to be sure, Bush had pulled out ahead of Kerry on Iraq in a couple of polls in September after the Republican Convention. But he's now come back down some. But it's still 51 percent of Americans say Bush could better handle Iraq, 44 Kerry. So, it's about a 7-point lead. It has diminished, but still Bush is ahead.
On the economy, however, this is traditionally where Democrats do better, domestic issues. One poll there Bush had moved a little ahead of Kerry, but now it's kind of back closer to where it was: 51-44. The blue is on top there, Americans more likely to say that John Kerry can do a better job with the economy than Bush.
And that's important, Betty, because this coming debate and the one after that are likely to focus quite a bit -- or the third one almost exclusively on domestic and economic-type issues.
NGUYEN: Absolutely. And with all of these numbers, Frank, does this change the expectations for Friday night's debate in Saint Louis?
NEWPORT: Yes. And that may not be great news for Kerry. I mean, Bush was told -- Americans told us prior to the first debate, Betty, that Bush could do the better job. So, expectations were high. And, of course, he didn't meet them. Our debate watcher poll said that Kerry won.
Now, it's Kerry, 48-41, Americans think he will do better in this coming town hall meeting, and that's good news for the Bush administration. In the weird world of politics, as we've told you before, you'd rather be low in expectations going into these debates, because then you can surprise people.
NGUYEN: Editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, thanks so much, Frank Newport. More debating and debate -- debating the debate, we should say, and that's coming up, including one guest who says he has figured out how to predict presidential elections. Oh, really? We'll put him to the test.
And another step toward the history books this morning. We'll talk to Miles O'Brien, who is awaiting the countdown to a very important takeoff.
But first, here is a look at what else is making news this Monday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NGUYEN: Well, consumers want high quality and high value in their cars, and a budget brand from South Korea is meeting those needs.
Carrie Lee has the story. She's at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square.
Maybe I need to buy a new car, Carrie.
CARRIE LEE, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, a lot of people may be interested in this, Betty: Hyundai. "USA Today" is reporting that a new survey finds Hyundai, the budget brand from South Korea, came in second only to Toyota's luxury brand, Lexus, in a survey from Strategic Vision, and this is an automotive consulting firm.
Now, the company asked 74,000 owners to rate the overall value of their new cars and trucks, including things like price, affordability, resale value, expected reliability. And Hyundai scored well basically because the brand's vehicle quality has improved. Models have a long warranty. They're affordable. Very different from the late-1990s when Hyundai was plagued with electrical and engine problems. They've since made quite a few improvements.
And Hyundai has actually scored very well in other recent automotive surveys, including one from JD Power, another from "Consumer Reports."
So, it looks like Hyundai is doing well, and we'll see if people here continue to snap them up -- Betty.
NGUYEN: Hey, quickly, how are the futures looking today?
LEE: The futures are looking very strong this morning. Oil, by the way, Friday crossed above $50 a barrel, settled above that amount. Now, oil is coming down below that $50 mark, and it looks like that's the big reason for the futures rally. So, futures are looking strong.
AirTran Airways is one stock to watch today. On Friday, saying September traffic rose 4.5 percent, and that stock could see some action today. We'll see. Back to you.
NGUYEN: All right, Carrie Lee at the Nasdaq, thank you so much for that.
Bush or Kerry? Who will win? You might think it's way too soon to answer that question. But Ray Fair does not. The Yale economics professor has created an equation. It's been pretty good at predicting at presidential races. Who does he think will take this year's vote?
Well, he joins us now from Yale with the answers to all of this.
Good morning to you, Professor Fair.
RAY FAIR, YALE UNIVERSITY: Good morning.
NGUYEN: Well, first of all, in the most simplest of terms, if you would, please, tell us exactly, how does this equation work?
FAIR: Well, I'm trying to explain voting behavior back to 1916, and I'm trying to explain the share of the two-party vote that the incumbent party gets. And so, using a statistical technique to examine the regularities, looking for regularities in the past data, I tried to find what seems to explain the vote share.
Not surprisingly, the economy has an important effect on how people vote and also the incumbent information. If the incumbent is running again, as in this case, he has a slight head start.
So, it's the economy plus the incumbent information that is used to try to then explain the percentage of the vote share each election.
NGUYEN: OK. If that's the equation, what about the war in Iraq? Does that factor in?
FAIR: Things like war, personalities, how you do in debates, et cetera, all is the unexplained part of this. It does into what we call the error term in this analysis.
So, on average, the equation makes an error of about 2.4 percentage points each election. So...
NGUYEN: And your accurate rate with this equation?
FAIR: About 2.4 percent, yes.
NGUYEN: Oh, OK. I thought that was the error rate. OK, good.
FAIR: The accuracy rate, yes.
NGUYEN: All right. That's not too bad. So, without further ado, we don't want to keep people waiting any longer. What does your equation say for this election?
FAIR: Well, the economy is doing reasonably well of the variables I'm using. The inflation rate, which seems to matter, historically is low. The growth rate this year and output in the GDP is reasonably good. And Bush has some incumbency information in his favor, because he's an incumbent running again.
So, it says that Bush should have a fairly easy time winning. The prediction is for about 57 and a half percent of the two-party vote that Bush should get. So, contrary to the current Gallup Poll that you mentioned earlier, the equation is predicting that Bush should win by a reasonable amount.
NGUYEN: Quickly, I am out of time, but I have to ask you this. I've got to throw it in here. You say Bush is going to win. That is your prediction. But you are a Kerry supporter. Does that factor into this equation? Can you skew the equation?
FAIR: No. In this business, you have to keep your political views out of the analysis; otherwise, it's not scientific at all. So, no, I don't -- there is no way to skew it.
There are some caveats, however, that it could be the equations makes this time for reasons of Iraq and other issues a much larger error than it has historically. So, even though historically it's done well, you never know whether it will, in this time, things will be quite different, because of something like Iraq. And it will be way off.
So, I don't want to leave you with too much confidence that this is actually going to turn out to be correct.
NGUYEN: Well, Professor Fair, I have a prediction. Do you know what that is?
FAIR: What's that?
NGUYEN: We're done. We're out of time.
FAIR: OK.
NGUYEN: Thanks for your information this morning. You predict Bush will take the election. We'll see how it all shakes out. Thank you.
CNN will bring you live coverage of the vice presidential debate Tuesday starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. And the same goes for Friday when President Bush and Senator Kerry square off again. So be sure to tune in to CNN for debate coverage both nights.
Your news, money, weather and sports. The time right now is 6:44 Eastern. Here's what's new this morning.
Central Baghdad was rocked by a pair of car bombs today. Some reports say at least 16 people were killed, while other reports list the death toll at 20. As many as 85 others were injured.
Martha Stewart has been partying during her last few days of freedom. The "New York Post" reports that Stewart went to the Bahamas for the weekend to attend a friend's wedding. She is scheduled to begin her five-month stay in a West Virginia prison. That starts on Friday.
In money, "Shark Tale" makes a big splash at the box office. The animated fish story devours an estimated $4.1 million as the weekend's top film.
In culture, I smell a Nobel Prize. Two Americans were awarded the Nobel Prize in medicine this morning. Richard Axsell (ph) and Lyndon Buck (ph) were honored for their work with odor receptors in the human sense of smell.
In sports now, is Tiger Woods getting married? Newspapers in Barbados say that Woods and his fiance, Ellen Nordegren (ph) -- you're going to have to help me with that name, Chad, I know you're a big golfer -- will be married this week on the island. But Woods says he is going there just to vacation. Do you believe it?
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I do.
NGUYEN: OK.
MYERS: Not.
NGUYEN: I was about to say. There is too much talk surrounding this. I don't know if it's just a vacation.
MYERS: Yes. She's not a golfer actually. She was a nanny for Jasper Parnavic (ph). And they met on the tour.
NGUYEN: And a model, don't forget that.
MYERS: Exactly.
NGUYEN: I mean, just look at her.
MYERS: Well, of course, she's obviously -- I'll leave that out. My wife is watching.
NGUYEN: Your wife is watching.
(WEATHER REPORT)
NGUYEN: Well, the next step into space is set to take place today. A $10 million prize is at stake as SpaceShipOne tries to make history once again.
For a preview of the second space flight, we head out to Mojave, California, where CNN's space correspondent Miles O'Brien is standing by very early this morning.
Good morning to you -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN SPACE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Betty.
It's a little more than three hours away before SpaceShipOne heads off. Are you going to be watching?
NGUYEN: Of course, I'm going to be watching. I just don't want to see what I saw last week when it started to roll.
O'BRIEN: Yes, the roll. That was kind of a big deal, wasn't it? It kind of took our breath away for all of us who had a chance to watch it. They think they've got it figured out. They think it was basically a situation where you have to fly this particular craft -- because it's relatively unstable and tends to roll you have to fly a very specific path up. And they've modified the flight plan a little bit. And the hope is they won't have that roll.
But the bottom line is, it rolled, you know, beyond the atmosphere. And because it was beyond the atmosphere, it didn't break up with an aerodynamic load or whatever is the term would be. And so they're not too worried about it if a roll begins.
But nevertheless, for you and I watching it from the ground, it's quite an exciting sight, isn't it?
NGUYEN: Absolutely. And let's talk about the money at stake here: $10 million. While that's a big prize, this project is costing them, what, some $20 million? But it's not about the money, is it, Miles?
O'BRIEN: Well, no. No, this is just the beginning. This is just the beginning. Of course, the (AUDIO GAP) project, Paul Allen, $10 million, he probably has that lying around in change, right?
So, this is definitely not about the money. Of course, a 40- percent return on his $25 million investment after a couple of years spent working on it isn't bad, I suppose.
The idea here is to spur this conversation you and I are having in talking about the possibility of civilian space flight and coming up with a tourist industry where regular people, not just multimillionaires, could possibly train for and then take a trip to space. That's what this is all about. He's a crusader for that, as is Burt Rutan and (AUDIO GAP) that designed and built this craft.
NGUYEN: Miles, we will be watching today to see if it happens for a second time. Thank you.
O'BRIEN: You're welcome.
NGUYEN: And we'll let you join Miles for that live launch coming up a little later this morning. Our live coverage begins at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time during "AMERICAN MORNING." So stay tuned to watch this space.
Now, day of hard knocks and historic moments on the grid iron, and one star of the NFL proves he's more than just a running man.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NGUYEN: It's time now to talk a little sports. Joining us here in the living room is CNN's sports contributor Chris Cotter.
CHRIS COTTER, CNN SPORTS CONTRIBUTOR: Cozy.
NGUYEN: Good morning to you -- Chris.
COTTER: Good morning. I spent a lot of time in my living room yesterday.
NGUYEN: On the couch, didn't you?
COTTER: Exactly. Flipping the channels.
MYERS: A great weekend, man.
NGUYEN: I loved the games.
COTTER: A full day of sports, but a full day of football as well. And we've kind of hit the quarter point of the NFL season. You know, four games in, and we've got a couple of surprise teams out there that...
NGUYEN: Yes, Pittsburgh.
COTTER: ... doing very well. Pittsburgh is certainly one of them at 3-1. I think nobody really expected anything out of this team. But they play in a division...
MYERS: Exactly.
COTTER: Yes, and Pittsburgh plays in a division that you can kind of move around in a little bit. No one is really going to run and hide. And yesterday they got a big win against Cincinnati. And interestingly enough, how they're doing it they've got a new quarterback now, a rookie out of Miami of Ohio. He's their first round draft choice. Tommy Maddox goes down with an injury. He steps in, and he's getting the job done.
NGUYEN: Yes.
COTTER: He's 2-0 as a starter, and they're going to stick with him.
MYERS: Yes.
NGUYEN: And then the Giants, they're also doing well, aren't they?
MYERS: I think we have video of the Colts.
NGUYEN: Oh, we do? OK.
(CROSSTALK)
MYERS: Yes.
COTTER: Yes, we're actually bouncing around a little bit. But, yes, the Colts got a big win as well yesterday against Jacksonville. Here, you see it, and an interception here by Gerald Smith (ph)...
NGUYEN: Wow!
COTTER: ... with the pick. He wasn't even looking. And that was a huge play, because it gave Jacksonsville a chance to score at the 1. You see the first down line there, the yellow.
Jacksonville decides to go up top Jimmy Smith with a 40-yard touchdown catch on this one on fourth and one in the fourth quarter. They get the two-point conversion. They tie the game, but Edgerrin James scores a lot of touchdowns, and he scores one here for Indianapolis. They go up on top, and they beat Jacksonville.
So, both teams are 3-1. Jacksonsville had been 3-0, and it scored fewer points than any other 3-0 team in the history of the NFL. Their offense isn't clicking, but the defense is. Unfortunately, if you play a team like Indianapolis, their offense is just a little bit down.
NGUYEN: Let's talk about Cincinnati.
COTTER: Cincinnati, yes. They were playing Pittsburgh, and an interesting highlight in this one. I talked to you about Ben Roethlisberger, the quarterback for Pittsburgh. But here, you have Carson Palmer, their young quarterback out of USC. Who does he throw it to? The other team. But a guy who used to be his teammate at USC. They were roommates at USC.
NGUYEN: Was it a lapse in memory?
COTTER: He threw at Paul Omalo (ph). And look at this run back here. And who does he hit? Boom!
MYERS: Rumbling, bumbling and stumbling.
COTTER: His hold roommate, Carson Palmer. He drops it at the goal line to get in. I'm sure he had a few words to say about that.
And this is Roethlisberger, the rookie, throwing to Verron Haynes from, of course, the guy from Georgia there with a touchdown. And Pittsburgh gets the win. They're 3-0 on the season, a surprise 3-0.
MYERS: The New York Giants.
NGUYEN: Yes, I was going to say you had been mentioning surprises.
MYERS: Yes.
NGUYEN: And the Lions were a big surprise.
COTTER: The Giants were a big surprise. They go into Green Bay and beat the Packers. And Brett Favre in this one suffering a concussion, and you'll see it right here, Lee Joseph on the sack. Favre trying to roll out and make something happen. He gets dropped, suffering a concussion, but he comes back a play later... MYERS: Here we go!
COTTER: ... and says I've got to get in there. This is fourth down as well. He goes on top to Javon Walker for the touchdown.
MYERS: Touchdown!
COTTER: Unfortunately, they found out it was a concussion, and he had to come out of the game. And it was the Giants and Tiki Barber right here with a huge day. He had 182 yards on the ground, and he goes 53 yards for the score, and the Giants gets above him.
MYERS: How about a team that hasn't lost in probably as many times as we've haven't seen hurricanes? The Patriots.
COTTER: Yes, the Patriots have not lost...
MYERS: Unbelievable.
COTTER: ... in 18 games. That ties an NFL record. They go into Buffalo yesterday and get the win. Here you go, though. This is a return for a kick by the Buffalo Bills, some strange special teams play in this game. But Terrence McGee takes this one 98 yards for the score for the Bills. They go up top early. And in typical Patriots fashion, they had to fight back in this one, scratch and claw their way back into it.
Watch this, though. This is a great big punt. Oh, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and Bryan Morman (ph) is going to run for 44 yards.
MYERS: It was Australian rules football, because you've got to bounce it every once in a while, right?
COTTER: Look at that style, though. He's a born running back, right? And they tripped the first down, not only draw it up, but they'll take it. But eventually, as we said, it is the Patriots. And it's going to David Patton for this score.
NGUYEN: Oh, I hate this. We're out of time.
MYERS: Yes.
NGUYEN: But Emmitt Smith, my former Dallas Cowboy.
COTTER: Emmitt Smith had a huge day yesterday.
MYERS: He did.
COTTER: And he passed for a touchdown in his first pass in history.
NGUYEN: He passed.
COTTER: His first pass in his entire NFL career. The all-time leading rusher throws a touchdown pass.
NGUYEN: Now, that's a player, yes.
COTTER: He has a perfect passer rating.
MYERS: Yes.
COTTER: One with a touchdown, right?
NGUYEN: Exactly. Way to go, Emmitt. All right, thanks, Chris Cotter.
COTTER: Sure.
NGUYEN: We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MYERS: All right, are you ready? Here are your questions for today's coffee quiz mug. When will the Nobel Peace Prize be announced? They've already announced one of those Nobel Prizes, but not the Peace Prize. And who is the pilot of that aircraft competing for the X-Prize? We need his name.
And we'll name the winner tomorrow. I need both answers...
NGUYEN: In order to win.
MYERS: CNN.
NGUYEN: All right. Well, that does it for us. "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now. Thanks for joining us.
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