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American Morning
Interview With Mary Matalin; Interview With Joe Lockhart; Early Birds
Aired October 05, 2004 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. We're in Cleveland, Ohio, at the Cleveland Museum of Art, a beautiful location here with the sun coming up in northern Ohio.
I'm Bill Hemmer. Good morning, again.
The vice-presidential candidates -- their one and only debate happens later tonight here in Cleveland. Dick Cheney and John Edwards, very different styles, too. We'll talk about that. We'll also talk about what we can expect from both men later tonight. Advisors from the two campaigns are here. Mary Matalin is in Jackson, Wyoming. Joe Lockhart is already here in Cleveland, arriving late last night.
Also this morning, Kelly Wallace looks at a trend that makes the last weeks of this campaign irrelevant to many voters. Kelly explains that in a moment.
First, back to New York again and Heidi Collins there.
Good morning -- Heidi.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Bill.
Also this half hour, the big show in Washington State is still Mount St. Helens. The volcano letting off more steam yesterday, and scientists believe magma may be moving toward the surface. And we're going to talk to a geologist about some telltale signs that are now coming from beneath the mountain. It looks pretty ominous to me.
All right, meanwhile, though, we are going to check on the stories now in the news this morning.
There is word Israeli and Palestinian officials are negotiating to end a week-long offensive. Israeli tanks and troops have now moved further into northern Gaza. At least 70 people have been killed since the offensive began. The U.N. is debating a resolution this morning, calling on Israel to stop its attacks.
Here in the United States, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says one of his comments was misunderstood. At issue is a statement the secretary made yesterday before the Council on Foreign Relations. Rumsfeld appeared to suggest there was no clear links between former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: There are differences in the intelligence community as to what the relationship was. To my knowledge, I have not seen any strong hard evidence that links the two.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: But Rumsfeld said his position was misunderstood, and there clearly was a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda.
Attorneys for Kobe Bryant say his accuser's name should be made public. The defense told the judge yesterday the woman shouldn't be able to bring, quote, "false accusations in her civil lawsuit without being identified."
Meanwhile, Shaquille O'Neal is denying a claim he paid $1 million to stop women from filing sexual assault charges against him. Bryant made the charge against his former teammate in an interview with investigators.
That's the news for now. Back now to Bill in Cleveland once again.
HEMMER: Heidi, thanks.
Back to politics for a moment here. The vice-presidential candidates are ready for their close-up later tonight in primetime, Dick Cheney and John Edwards. Their only debate goes down at 9:00 Eastern Time.
Edwards gets a slight edge going in, according to our poll link. That's not the way Mary Matalin sees it, though. She's the advisor for the Bush campaign, live in Jackson, Wyoming, this morning.
And, Mary, welcome back. Good morning to you.
MARY MATALIN, BUSH CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISOR: Thanks, Bill.
HEMMER: I first want to get your comment to what Paul Bremer was quoted as saying today in "The Washington Post" about two key mistakes in Iraq: not enough troops on the ground, and because of that it could not contain the looting that happened after the fall of Baghdad. Your reaction now to what Paul Bremer has said yesterday?
MATALIN: Well, my understanding is the ambassador was looking backwards and hindsight is 20/20. What he further said is that the troops are sufficient today, and that the war in Iraq is an integral front on the global war in terror. And he supports it. So, you know, looking backwards is easy.
What the troops were doing at the time and the numbers were sufficient to do it was to rout Saddam Hussein, and they were obviously successful at that.
HEMMER: But, Mary, does this not reinforce what John Kerry has been saying for weeks now about Iraq? MATALIN: I'm not clear of what John Kerry has been saying for weeks, because he says something different every day. The other night he said, for instance, that it was a mistake to go in there, but then he said those sacrificing there are not doing it for a mistake. So, I'm sure tonight Senator Edwards will have, what, 12, 13, 14 positions on Iraq.
The critical question here is: Are we safer today with Saddam Hussein gone? And the indisputable answer is yes. And maybe Senator Kerry in the next 28 days will be able to answer that one way or the other.
HEMMER: But the point that John Kerry time and time again is that you planned for the war, but you did not plan for the peace. How do you defend that?
MATALIN: There was all kind of planning going into there. Dams that didn't blow. Oil wells that didn't blow. A civil war that didn't happen. A refugee crisis that didn't happen. You know, you can -- the moment of contingency when boots hit the ground and the war begins, of course you have to recalculate and adjust the conditions on the ground. But the generals got what they asked for going into it, and they did what they needed to do to be successful in the mission.
So, you know, Senator Kerry can look backwards and can kvetch and can complain, but he's yet -- he has yet to put out any kind of policy that makes sense going forward on the global war on terror. In fact, the other night he said -- he laid out the Kerry doctrine that says we have to have a global test, we have to pass a global test before we go forward to protect ourselves through pre-emptive action.
So, I think the senator has to answer larger questions about how he would make us safer when this president has been in the process and has been successful at making us safer today.
HEMMER: One more question, Mary, about the debate tonight. Democrats here in Cleveland, I can tell you, feel pretty good right now. They feel as if they have momentum. Do you see it the same way?
MATALIN: I think they have some pretty good and glib talkers. When they put Senator Edwards on the ticket they specifically said this is not our spin, that they put him on there because he was such a good talker, and that he's won tens of millions of dollars as a trial lawyer talking. And we fully expect him to attack the vice president. While he's attacking the vice president, the vice president will be talking about attacking the problems of Americans.
So, yes, they will probably have a very good stylistic presentation tonight. But as was the case in Miami with the president, the vice president will have the stronger arguments, and he will talk about the record, which they have refused to do so far. And he will lay out the second term agenda, which they have failed to do so far.
So, whatever style points they win, whatever battles they win, we'll win the war on this. HEMMER: OK. Mary Matalin, thanks, live in Jackson, Wyoming.
Now the other viewpoint from the Kerry campaign. Senior advisor Joe Lockhart is my guest here in Cleveland, Ohio.
Joe, good morning to you. Good to see new person.
JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISOR: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: The newcomer versus the seasoned veteran.
LOCKHART: Right.
HEMMER: What are your concerns with John Edwards stepping into the biggest fight of his life tonight politically?
LOCKHART: Oh, listen, I think John Edwards has a lot of experience. You know, George Bush ran for president talking about you didn't need Washington experience to run the country. He probably could have used a little more. John Edwards has some, but he's got lots of life experience. He knows what it's like to struggle. He knows what the middle-class in this country is going through. And I think he'll demonstrate that tonight.
HEMMER: So, you're saying no concerns with John Edwards stepping into this ring tonight.
LOCKHART: No. No, not at all. And I'll tell you, you know, if Dick Cheney wants to argue that his experience, you know, bodes him well, look at the experience. Look at what they've done over the last four years. Look at what Jerry Bremer said today. I mean, this is exactly what John Kerry and John Edwards have been saying. They didn't plan for the peace.
Taking down Saddam Hussein in a weakened state and in a weakened army, that wasn't the hard part. All of the experts said it's what happens next. They had no clue what was going to happen, and they still don't have a plan, as opposed to John Kerry and John Edwards, to fix this problem in Iraq.
HEMMER: Let me keep the focus on John Edwards for the sake of our discussion here.
LOCKHART: Sure.
HEMMER: A former trial lawyer. How vulnerable is he when Dick Cheney possibly brings up the point that doctors have been put out of business because their insurance costs are too high?
LOCKHART: Well, listen, that is one of the biggest urban myths in the country right now that somehow there's a diminishing pool doctors. It's just not true.
But I'll tell you, John Edwards will not be shy about talking about taking on people who don't have the advantage, who aren't powerful, who are taking on powerful interests. That's what he's done his whole life.
The American public needs an advocate like that as opposed to somebody who is a vested special interest in Washington. He ran Halliburton, now probably one of the most shameful companies in America, just before he came to the White House. He's very proud of that. And is still making money off of Halliburton.
HEMMER: So, you're saying today that John Edwards is not vulnerable on this issue, a former trial lawyer?
LOCKHART: I don't think so. I don't think -- you know, we're going to find out tonight. And we're going to see, I think, a strong performance from John Edwards. But, again, if their idea is experience, America can't afford four more years of this kind of experience.
HEMMER: Yesterday in Iowa, President Bush signed the fourth tax cut into law since he was elected president almost four years ago. This is essentially in a lot of ways going to the middle-class of America. Are Republicans stealing this issue from Democrats in this campaign?
LOCKHART: No. No, they're not. In fact, if you look at it, the middle-class understands what they are getting and what they're not getting. The disproportionately large share of the tax cuts went to those making over 200,000. If we hadn't done those tax cuts, we could have lower health care costs, lower college tuition costs, a better job creation situation.
And if John -- when John Kerry is elected, when John Edwards is the vice president, we're going to be able to give deeper and richer tax cuts to the middle-class, because the top 2 percent doesn't need them. They know they don't need them. And we'll be able to use that to give bigger and deeper tax cuts to the middle-class.
HEMMER: I've got to go. But I want a quick answer on this. It's called a "Meet the Press" format later tonight here in Cleveland. Does that favor Dick Cheney?
LOCKHART: Sure. The White House gave up a lot. They basically gave up the third debate with John Kerry to have a seat for Dick Cheney. That may turn out to be the most expensive political capitol seat in history.
HEMMER: So, it does favor Dick Cheney, you're saying.
LOCKHART: Sure. Sitting down and a sort of "meet the press" favors him, but John Edwards will do just fine.
HEMMER: Joe Lockhart, thanks, live here in Cleveland.
Mary Matalin earlier today in Jackson, Wyoming.
A month from today, Americans go to the polls to elect a president. Four weeks and counting now, but not everyone is waiting to cast their ballot. The story now from Kelly Wallace on that today. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): More than 60 million Americans watched the big debate last week, but for some voters it didn't even matter. This couple in Des Moines had already cast their vote a week before, by absentee ballot.
ANDY HEITING-DOANE, EARLY VOTER IN IOWA: Well, not only is it easy to vote, but it's nice to be able to come down at your own leisure instead of having to wait in line on voting night.
WALLACE: It's not just Des Moines. In Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its suburbs, voting before Election Day is catching on.
MICHAEL VU, CUYAHOGA COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS: I do believe that there's a trend throughout the United States currently that people are busy. And so the best form for them to vote is to vote absentee.
WALLACE: Michael Vu expects his county to ship out more than 100,000 absentee ballots this year. That's a jump from 2000 when he says 76,000 ballots were requested.
It used to be voters needed a good reason to vote early, but now 35 states in all are allowing some form of early voting, no excuses needed.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're checking on registered voters.
WALLACE: So, it's no surprise both sides are pouring millions into getting at these voters who plan to vote early.
How crucial can early voting be? Just look at Iowa in 2000. George W. Bush led Al Gore on Election Day by more than 7,000 votes. But after absentee ballots were counted, Gore won the state by more than 4,000 votes.
Not everyone, though, is a fan of early voting. Critics say it hasn't increased turnout and that those who vote early may miss out on important information in the days before the election. But supporters say it gives voters more time to study their ballots and could help encourage people to vote who might not have time on November 2.
(on camera): Pros and cons aside, the implications for this year's election could be huge. The expectation is that at least one out of every four voters will cast their vote early.
Kelly Wallace, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: Kelly, thanks for that. And that would be a jump from 2000 when only 14 percent of the U.S. population voted early or cast their ballots absentee. Another reminder, later tonight CNN has live coverage starting at 7:00 here in Cleveland. The debate begins at 9:00 Eastern and will last about 90 minutes. Must-see TV yet again.
Heidi -- back to you now in New York with more.
COLLINS: Boy, that's for sure. Must-see TV. All right, Bill, thanks.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, is Mount St. Helens priming for an encore? We're going to go there live for the very latest.
And why is Elton John so angry at Madonna? The latest outburst from the "Rocket Man" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Mount St. Helens is putting on quite a display, blowing off steam and ash yesterday in a plume that rose 12,000 feet above sea level. It looks beautiful. But scientists remain at and they are on the highest state of volcanic alert for what they believe is still to come.
Jon Major with the U.S. Geological Survey is joining us now from Mount St. Helens to put it all in perspective for us.
Jon, good morning to you.
JON MAJOR, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: You know, obviously, two small eruptions yesterday that we heard about. But tell us if they say anything about what could happen at Mount St. Helens, especially because those earthquakes that we have been hearing about, too, didn't stop when those eruptions went off.
MAJOR: That's right. What happened yesterday were just some very passive steam emissions. Most likely they are telling us that water has come into contact with hot material, perhaps a little bit more easily now, so that we're getting more frequent steam bursts.
But the earthquakes never saw them. The earthquake activity was just punting along as it had been right before each one of those events, and it kept right on going after each one. There was a little drop-off in the earthquake activity right after each event, but pretty minor. And the earthquakes came right back to where they were. So, those events were essentially non-events from an earthquake point of view.
COLLINS: Well, what does it mean, though, that the earthquakes are continuing to rumble in the face of these eruptions?
MAJOR: Well, we've still got magma down there that's pushing its way up, and the earthquake energy is still quite high. So, we're still anticipating that this could ultimately lead to a, you know, small to moderate explosive eruption. Or there is still perhaps about a 20 percent chance that this might all die away and nothing really ever develops much beyond what we've seen.
COLLINS: Well, I'm glad. Hopefully, for the people around there that is the case. But, you know, given the activity and the time passing now, any indication of when this could actually happen?
MAJOR: Well, that's the $64 million question. We could see explosive activity anywhere from 10 minutes from now to a few months from now to perhaps never.
COLLINS: All right, before we let you go, John, I want to look at a couple of quick maps if we could, because there have been some safety concerns about air travel. And looking at this map, we see that Mount St. Helens is located about 100 miles south of Seattle- Tacoma International Airport, then 50 miles north of Portland, Oregon International Airport. Again, we've heard about the risk to commercial and other airlines. What sort of precautions are being taken should this thing go off?
MAJOR: Yes. If there's an eruption and it sends an ash column into the air, the FAA is one of the first people that we contact. And the FAA alerts the airlines right away. So, we're very concerned about the possibility of ash getting into the air as far as aviation is concerned. So, we make sure the FAA is alerted immediately.
COLLINS: All right, Jon Major with the U.S. Geological Survey, thanks so much this morning. We'll talk to you soon.
MAJOR: You're welcome.
COLLINS: Still to come now, pop star Elton John pops off, now taking on the "Material Girl." That's next right here on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Now let's get a market preview, and it's the morning after Monday night football. So how did we do on our bets? Well, Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business." Hopefully the markets are much better than the football picks.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes. You know, and the other thing is I was out yesterday. I tried to duck because of my picks, but we're doing it Tuesday anyway.
COLLINS: Exactly.
SERWER: Let's talk about what happened yesterday on Wall Street. The market is on uppers. What can I say? And that's a good thing, especially after Friday's 100-point gain on the Dow. We had some follow-up. It happens at the beginning of a quarter. A lot of money managers put money into the market, so you see that very often. We have earnings season starts in earnest later this week. COLLINS: I like that.
SERWER: The price of oil is up this morning, but the head of OPEC, Purnomo Yusgiantoro -- and you know how I love to say his name...
COLLINS: You're so good at it.
SERWER: ... predicts that the price of oil will be below $40 a barrel next year, which is a huge drop.
COLLINS: Wow! Yes.
SERWER: And so, the market is seeing some optimism there.
IBM is getting upgraded as well. That stock is on the move pre- market.
And let's talk football, because we did OK, Heidi, you and I did OK.
COLLINS: Yes.
SERWER: And everyone did OK, if 500 is OK.
COLLINS: You did terrible. What are you talking about?
SERWER: You did a little bit less than OK. So 7-7, Heidi did 5- 9. I didn't get the Bills-Patriots right. I didn't get the Panthers- Falcons right. But my Chargers, you be classy out there, San Diego.
COLLINS: Yes.
SERWER: My Chargers finally did come through. And do we have the full screen with the overall? Yes, the cume, as they say in the statistics business.
COLLINS: Oh!
SERWER: And you can see there, Heidi Collins is still on top. Oh, you're tied. You're still on top.
COLLINS: Oh, no!
SERWER: But we're tightly bunched, except for a certain anchor who is not here today. The rest of us are tightly bunched.
COLLINS: Yes. Well...
SERWER: That's a good race.
COLLINS: I knew he was going to pop up somewhere.
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: Did you hear? SERWER: Yes, I heard that. I heard him.
COLLINS: Hemmer, go back into your hole.
SERWER: You're tied, Bill.
HEMMER: Send that to Gallup. I think it's as tight as this presidential race.
SERWER: Yes. Right, right.
HEMMER: That is neck and neck.
SERWER: Yes. We'll wait for the debate.
HEMMER: Good competition.
SERWER: Right.
COLLINS: All right...
HEMMER: How about the Chiefs beating the Ravens last night, by the way?
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: Yes, I didn't do well on that one either. All right, Bill, we'll get back to you in just a second here.
First, we have to talk about Elton John. He apparently is no fan of the "Material Girl." The flamboyant musician was accepting a songwriting award in London yesterday. And when John learned that Madonna was nominated for best live act began an obscene outburst.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ELTON JOHN, POP SINGER: Madonna best (EXPLETIVE DELETED) live act (EXPLETIVE DELETED). Since when has lip-synching been live? Sorry about that, but I think everyone who lip-synchs in public on stage when you've paid, like, 75 quid to see them should be shot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SERWER: Wow!
COLLINS: My goodness. Yes, he has an opinion.
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: His publicist was very quick to issue a statement saying -- quote -- "Madonna does not lip-sync nor does she spend her time trashing other artists."
ANDY BOROWITZ, BOROWITZREPORT.COM Now, Elton's comments are controversial, because experts actually disagree on why Madonna should be shot. COLLINS: Goodness sakes! All right, Andy is here now for Jack.
SERWER: On that note (INAUDIBLE) as they say in the business, yes.
BOROWITZ: Well, the "Question of the Day." Today we're talking about Martha Stewart's fabulous pre-prison beach vacation in the Bahamas. Now, her room cost about $1,000 per night. That's a lot of license plates. She was enjoying a little sun and sand before checking into Alderson Federal Prison Camp in West Virginia.
All of this made us wonder: If you knew you were going to prison on Friday, how would you spend your final days of freedom? We've got some pretty good ideas here.
Randy from Lufkin, Texas, writes: "I would spend my remaining days of freedom hiding at the house. I would be so embarrassed and ashamed of what I had done. Flying off to an island paradise before heading to prison just shines one more spotlight on mad Martha's true colors."
Mel from Cornwall-on-Hudson, New York, writes: "I think Martha had it about right. Her situation is like, but falls short of Dr. Samuel Johnson's observation that nothing more wonderfully concentrates a man's mind than the sure knowledge he is about to be hanged in the morning." Very literary, Mel.
SERWER: Dr. Johnson.
BOROWITZ: Dr. Johnson.
SERWER: Yes.
BOROWITZ: Anonymous writes: "Martha should buy the island and just stay there."
And finally, Paul from Hellertown, Pennsylvania, writes: "I would spend my final days of freedom making sure I couldn't be found on Friday."
I think that's a great idea. That's where I would be.
COLLINS: Definitely breaking the law again.
BOROWITZ: Exactly.
COLLINS: All right, Andy, thanks so much for that. We'll check back a little bit later on.
In the meantime, now back to Bill Hemmer, the guy who is tied with me in the pool now.
HEMMER: Hey, listen, it's a long season, Heidi.
COLLINS: Very long.
HEMMER: There's plenty of time. Let's get a break here. In a moment...
(CROSSTALK)
COLLINS: ... for a second.
HEMMER: You'll be back. Tonight is the battle of No. 2s -- why the stakes may be higher for this vice-presidential debate than for any before it. Stay with us. Back in a moment here at live at the Cleveland Art Museum in northern Ohio after this on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired October 5, 2004 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. We're in Cleveland, Ohio, at the Cleveland Museum of Art, a beautiful location here with the sun coming up in northern Ohio.
I'm Bill Hemmer. Good morning, again.
The vice-presidential candidates -- their one and only debate happens later tonight here in Cleveland. Dick Cheney and John Edwards, very different styles, too. We'll talk about that. We'll also talk about what we can expect from both men later tonight. Advisors from the two campaigns are here. Mary Matalin is in Jackson, Wyoming. Joe Lockhart is already here in Cleveland, arriving late last night.
Also this morning, Kelly Wallace looks at a trend that makes the last weeks of this campaign irrelevant to many voters. Kelly explains that in a moment.
First, back to New York again and Heidi Collins there.
Good morning -- Heidi.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Bill.
Also this half hour, the big show in Washington State is still Mount St. Helens. The volcano letting off more steam yesterday, and scientists believe magma may be moving toward the surface. And we're going to talk to a geologist about some telltale signs that are now coming from beneath the mountain. It looks pretty ominous to me.
All right, meanwhile, though, we are going to check on the stories now in the news this morning.
There is word Israeli and Palestinian officials are negotiating to end a week-long offensive. Israeli tanks and troops have now moved further into northern Gaza. At least 70 people have been killed since the offensive began. The U.N. is debating a resolution this morning, calling on Israel to stop its attacks.
Here in the United States, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says one of his comments was misunderstood. At issue is a statement the secretary made yesterday before the Council on Foreign Relations. Rumsfeld appeared to suggest there was no clear links between former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: There are differences in the intelligence community as to what the relationship was. To my knowledge, I have not seen any strong hard evidence that links the two.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: But Rumsfeld said his position was misunderstood, and there clearly was a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda.
Attorneys for Kobe Bryant say his accuser's name should be made public. The defense told the judge yesterday the woman shouldn't be able to bring, quote, "false accusations in her civil lawsuit without being identified."
Meanwhile, Shaquille O'Neal is denying a claim he paid $1 million to stop women from filing sexual assault charges against him. Bryant made the charge against his former teammate in an interview with investigators.
That's the news for now. Back now to Bill in Cleveland once again.
HEMMER: Heidi, thanks.
Back to politics for a moment here. The vice-presidential candidates are ready for their close-up later tonight in primetime, Dick Cheney and John Edwards. Their only debate goes down at 9:00 Eastern Time.
Edwards gets a slight edge going in, according to our poll link. That's not the way Mary Matalin sees it, though. She's the advisor for the Bush campaign, live in Jackson, Wyoming, this morning.
And, Mary, welcome back. Good morning to you.
MARY MATALIN, BUSH CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISOR: Thanks, Bill.
HEMMER: I first want to get your comment to what Paul Bremer was quoted as saying today in "The Washington Post" about two key mistakes in Iraq: not enough troops on the ground, and because of that it could not contain the looting that happened after the fall of Baghdad. Your reaction now to what Paul Bremer has said yesterday?
MATALIN: Well, my understanding is the ambassador was looking backwards and hindsight is 20/20. What he further said is that the troops are sufficient today, and that the war in Iraq is an integral front on the global war in terror. And he supports it. So, you know, looking backwards is easy.
What the troops were doing at the time and the numbers were sufficient to do it was to rout Saddam Hussein, and they were obviously successful at that.
HEMMER: But, Mary, does this not reinforce what John Kerry has been saying for weeks now about Iraq? MATALIN: I'm not clear of what John Kerry has been saying for weeks, because he says something different every day. The other night he said, for instance, that it was a mistake to go in there, but then he said those sacrificing there are not doing it for a mistake. So, I'm sure tonight Senator Edwards will have, what, 12, 13, 14 positions on Iraq.
The critical question here is: Are we safer today with Saddam Hussein gone? And the indisputable answer is yes. And maybe Senator Kerry in the next 28 days will be able to answer that one way or the other.
HEMMER: But the point that John Kerry time and time again is that you planned for the war, but you did not plan for the peace. How do you defend that?
MATALIN: There was all kind of planning going into there. Dams that didn't blow. Oil wells that didn't blow. A civil war that didn't happen. A refugee crisis that didn't happen. You know, you can -- the moment of contingency when boots hit the ground and the war begins, of course you have to recalculate and adjust the conditions on the ground. But the generals got what they asked for going into it, and they did what they needed to do to be successful in the mission.
So, you know, Senator Kerry can look backwards and can kvetch and can complain, but he's yet -- he has yet to put out any kind of policy that makes sense going forward on the global war on terror. In fact, the other night he said -- he laid out the Kerry doctrine that says we have to have a global test, we have to pass a global test before we go forward to protect ourselves through pre-emptive action.
So, I think the senator has to answer larger questions about how he would make us safer when this president has been in the process and has been successful at making us safer today.
HEMMER: One more question, Mary, about the debate tonight. Democrats here in Cleveland, I can tell you, feel pretty good right now. They feel as if they have momentum. Do you see it the same way?
MATALIN: I think they have some pretty good and glib talkers. When they put Senator Edwards on the ticket they specifically said this is not our spin, that they put him on there because he was such a good talker, and that he's won tens of millions of dollars as a trial lawyer talking. And we fully expect him to attack the vice president. While he's attacking the vice president, the vice president will be talking about attacking the problems of Americans.
So, yes, they will probably have a very good stylistic presentation tonight. But as was the case in Miami with the president, the vice president will have the stronger arguments, and he will talk about the record, which they have refused to do so far. And he will lay out the second term agenda, which they have failed to do so far.
So, whatever style points they win, whatever battles they win, we'll win the war on this. HEMMER: OK. Mary Matalin, thanks, live in Jackson, Wyoming.
Now the other viewpoint from the Kerry campaign. Senior advisor Joe Lockhart is my guest here in Cleveland, Ohio.
Joe, good morning to you. Good to see new person.
JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISOR: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: The newcomer versus the seasoned veteran.
LOCKHART: Right.
HEMMER: What are your concerns with John Edwards stepping into the biggest fight of his life tonight politically?
LOCKHART: Oh, listen, I think John Edwards has a lot of experience. You know, George Bush ran for president talking about you didn't need Washington experience to run the country. He probably could have used a little more. John Edwards has some, but he's got lots of life experience. He knows what it's like to struggle. He knows what the middle-class in this country is going through. And I think he'll demonstrate that tonight.
HEMMER: So, you're saying no concerns with John Edwards stepping into this ring tonight.
LOCKHART: No. No, not at all. And I'll tell you, you know, if Dick Cheney wants to argue that his experience, you know, bodes him well, look at the experience. Look at what they've done over the last four years. Look at what Jerry Bremer said today. I mean, this is exactly what John Kerry and John Edwards have been saying. They didn't plan for the peace.
Taking down Saddam Hussein in a weakened state and in a weakened army, that wasn't the hard part. All of the experts said it's what happens next. They had no clue what was going to happen, and they still don't have a plan, as opposed to John Kerry and John Edwards, to fix this problem in Iraq.
HEMMER: Let me keep the focus on John Edwards for the sake of our discussion here.
LOCKHART: Sure.
HEMMER: A former trial lawyer. How vulnerable is he when Dick Cheney possibly brings up the point that doctors have been put out of business because their insurance costs are too high?
LOCKHART: Well, listen, that is one of the biggest urban myths in the country right now that somehow there's a diminishing pool doctors. It's just not true.
But I'll tell you, John Edwards will not be shy about talking about taking on people who don't have the advantage, who aren't powerful, who are taking on powerful interests. That's what he's done his whole life.
The American public needs an advocate like that as opposed to somebody who is a vested special interest in Washington. He ran Halliburton, now probably one of the most shameful companies in America, just before he came to the White House. He's very proud of that. And is still making money off of Halliburton.
HEMMER: So, you're saying today that John Edwards is not vulnerable on this issue, a former trial lawyer?
LOCKHART: I don't think so. I don't think -- you know, we're going to find out tonight. And we're going to see, I think, a strong performance from John Edwards. But, again, if their idea is experience, America can't afford four more years of this kind of experience.
HEMMER: Yesterday in Iowa, President Bush signed the fourth tax cut into law since he was elected president almost four years ago. This is essentially in a lot of ways going to the middle-class of America. Are Republicans stealing this issue from Democrats in this campaign?
LOCKHART: No. No, they're not. In fact, if you look at it, the middle-class understands what they are getting and what they're not getting. The disproportionately large share of the tax cuts went to those making over 200,000. If we hadn't done those tax cuts, we could have lower health care costs, lower college tuition costs, a better job creation situation.
And if John -- when John Kerry is elected, when John Edwards is the vice president, we're going to be able to give deeper and richer tax cuts to the middle-class, because the top 2 percent doesn't need them. They know they don't need them. And we'll be able to use that to give bigger and deeper tax cuts to the middle-class.
HEMMER: I've got to go. But I want a quick answer on this. It's called a "Meet the Press" format later tonight here in Cleveland. Does that favor Dick Cheney?
LOCKHART: Sure. The White House gave up a lot. They basically gave up the third debate with John Kerry to have a seat for Dick Cheney. That may turn out to be the most expensive political capitol seat in history.
HEMMER: So, it does favor Dick Cheney, you're saying.
LOCKHART: Sure. Sitting down and a sort of "meet the press" favors him, but John Edwards will do just fine.
HEMMER: Joe Lockhart, thanks, live here in Cleveland.
Mary Matalin earlier today in Jackson, Wyoming.
A month from today, Americans go to the polls to elect a president. Four weeks and counting now, but not everyone is waiting to cast their ballot. The story now from Kelly Wallace on that today. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): More than 60 million Americans watched the big debate last week, but for some voters it didn't even matter. This couple in Des Moines had already cast their vote a week before, by absentee ballot.
ANDY HEITING-DOANE, EARLY VOTER IN IOWA: Well, not only is it easy to vote, but it's nice to be able to come down at your own leisure instead of having to wait in line on voting night.
WALLACE: It's not just Des Moines. In Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its suburbs, voting before Election Day is catching on.
MICHAEL VU, CUYAHOGA COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS: I do believe that there's a trend throughout the United States currently that people are busy. And so the best form for them to vote is to vote absentee.
WALLACE: Michael Vu expects his county to ship out more than 100,000 absentee ballots this year. That's a jump from 2000 when he says 76,000 ballots were requested.
It used to be voters needed a good reason to vote early, but now 35 states in all are allowing some form of early voting, no excuses needed.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're checking on registered voters.
WALLACE: So, it's no surprise both sides are pouring millions into getting at these voters who plan to vote early.
How crucial can early voting be? Just look at Iowa in 2000. George W. Bush led Al Gore on Election Day by more than 7,000 votes. But after absentee ballots were counted, Gore won the state by more than 4,000 votes.
Not everyone, though, is a fan of early voting. Critics say it hasn't increased turnout and that those who vote early may miss out on important information in the days before the election. But supporters say it gives voters more time to study their ballots and could help encourage people to vote who might not have time on November 2.
(on camera): Pros and cons aside, the implications for this year's election could be huge. The expectation is that at least one out of every four voters will cast their vote early.
Kelly Wallace, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: Kelly, thanks for that. And that would be a jump from 2000 when only 14 percent of the U.S. population voted early or cast their ballots absentee. Another reminder, later tonight CNN has live coverage starting at 7:00 here in Cleveland. The debate begins at 9:00 Eastern and will last about 90 minutes. Must-see TV yet again.
Heidi -- back to you now in New York with more.
COLLINS: Boy, that's for sure. Must-see TV. All right, Bill, thanks.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, is Mount St. Helens priming for an encore? We're going to go there live for the very latest.
And why is Elton John so angry at Madonna? The latest outburst from the "Rocket Man" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Mount St. Helens is putting on quite a display, blowing off steam and ash yesterday in a plume that rose 12,000 feet above sea level. It looks beautiful. But scientists remain at and they are on the highest state of volcanic alert for what they believe is still to come.
Jon Major with the U.S. Geological Survey is joining us now from Mount St. Helens to put it all in perspective for us.
Jon, good morning to you.
JON MAJOR, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: You know, obviously, two small eruptions yesterday that we heard about. But tell us if they say anything about what could happen at Mount St. Helens, especially because those earthquakes that we have been hearing about, too, didn't stop when those eruptions went off.
MAJOR: That's right. What happened yesterday were just some very passive steam emissions. Most likely they are telling us that water has come into contact with hot material, perhaps a little bit more easily now, so that we're getting more frequent steam bursts.
But the earthquakes never saw them. The earthquake activity was just punting along as it had been right before each one of those events, and it kept right on going after each one. There was a little drop-off in the earthquake activity right after each event, but pretty minor. And the earthquakes came right back to where they were. So, those events were essentially non-events from an earthquake point of view.
COLLINS: Well, what does it mean, though, that the earthquakes are continuing to rumble in the face of these eruptions?
MAJOR: Well, we've still got magma down there that's pushing its way up, and the earthquake energy is still quite high. So, we're still anticipating that this could ultimately lead to a, you know, small to moderate explosive eruption. Or there is still perhaps about a 20 percent chance that this might all die away and nothing really ever develops much beyond what we've seen.
COLLINS: Well, I'm glad. Hopefully, for the people around there that is the case. But, you know, given the activity and the time passing now, any indication of when this could actually happen?
MAJOR: Well, that's the $64 million question. We could see explosive activity anywhere from 10 minutes from now to a few months from now to perhaps never.
COLLINS: All right, before we let you go, John, I want to look at a couple of quick maps if we could, because there have been some safety concerns about air travel. And looking at this map, we see that Mount St. Helens is located about 100 miles south of Seattle- Tacoma International Airport, then 50 miles north of Portland, Oregon International Airport. Again, we've heard about the risk to commercial and other airlines. What sort of precautions are being taken should this thing go off?
MAJOR: Yes. If there's an eruption and it sends an ash column into the air, the FAA is one of the first people that we contact. And the FAA alerts the airlines right away. So, we're very concerned about the possibility of ash getting into the air as far as aviation is concerned. So, we make sure the FAA is alerted immediately.
COLLINS: All right, Jon Major with the U.S. Geological Survey, thanks so much this morning. We'll talk to you soon.
MAJOR: You're welcome.
COLLINS: Still to come now, pop star Elton John pops off, now taking on the "Material Girl." That's next right here on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Now let's get a market preview, and it's the morning after Monday night football. So how did we do on our bets? Well, Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business." Hopefully the markets are much better than the football picks.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes. You know, and the other thing is I was out yesterday. I tried to duck because of my picks, but we're doing it Tuesday anyway.
COLLINS: Exactly.
SERWER: Let's talk about what happened yesterday on Wall Street. The market is on uppers. What can I say? And that's a good thing, especially after Friday's 100-point gain on the Dow. We had some follow-up. It happens at the beginning of a quarter. A lot of money managers put money into the market, so you see that very often. We have earnings season starts in earnest later this week. COLLINS: I like that.
SERWER: The price of oil is up this morning, but the head of OPEC, Purnomo Yusgiantoro -- and you know how I love to say his name...
COLLINS: You're so good at it.
SERWER: ... predicts that the price of oil will be below $40 a barrel next year, which is a huge drop.
COLLINS: Wow! Yes.
SERWER: And so, the market is seeing some optimism there.
IBM is getting upgraded as well. That stock is on the move pre- market.
And let's talk football, because we did OK, Heidi, you and I did OK.
COLLINS: Yes.
SERWER: And everyone did OK, if 500 is OK.
COLLINS: You did terrible. What are you talking about?
SERWER: You did a little bit less than OK. So 7-7, Heidi did 5- 9. I didn't get the Bills-Patriots right. I didn't get the Panthers- Falcons right. But my Chargers, you be classy out there, San Diego.
COLLINS: Yes.
SERWER: My Chargers finally did come through. And do we have the full screen with the overall? Yes, the cume, as they say in the statistics business.
COLLINS: Oh!
SERWER: And you can see there, Heidi Collins is still on top. Oh, you're tied. You're still on top.
COLLINS: Oh, no!
SERWER: But we're tightly bunched, except for a certain anchor who is not here today. The rest of us are tightly bunched.
COLLINS: Yes. Well...
SERWER: That's a good race.
COLLINS: I knew he was going to pop up somewhere.
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: Did you hear? SERWER: Yes, I heard that. I heard him.
COLLINS: Hemmer, go back into your hole.
SERWER: You're tied, Bill.
HEMMER: Send that to Gallup. I think it's as tight as this presidential race.
SERWER: Yes. Right, right.
HEMMER: That is neck and neck.
SERWER: Yes. We'll wait for the debate.
HEMMER: Good competition.
SERWER: Right.
COLLINS: All right...
HEMMER: How about the Chiefs beating the Ravens last night, by the way?
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: Yes, I didn't do well on that one either. All right, Bill, we'll get back to you in just a second here.
First, we have to talk about Elton John. He apparently is no fan of the "Material Girl." The flamboyant musician was accepting a songwriting award in London yesterday. And when John learned that Madonna was nominated for best live act began an obscene outburst.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ELTON JOHN, POP SINGER: Madonna best (EXPLETIVE DELETED) live act (EXPLETIVE DELETED). Since when has lip-synching been live? Sorry about that, but I think everyone who lip-synchs in public on stage when you've paid, like, 75 quid to see them should be shot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SERWER: Wow!
COLLINS: My goodness. Yes, he has an opinion.
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: His publicist was very quick to issue a statement saying -- quote -- "Madonna does not lip-sync nor does she spend her time trashing other artists."
ANDY BOROWITZ, BOROWITZREPORT.COM Now, Elton's comments are controversial, because experts actually disagree on why Madonna should be shot. COLLINS: Goodness sakes! All right, Andy is here now for Jack.
SERWER: On that note (INAUDIBLE) as they say in the business, yes.
BOROWITZ: Well, the "Question of the Day." Today we're talking about Martha Stewart's fabulous pre-prison beach vacation in the Bahamas. Now, her room cost about $1,000 per night. That's a lot of license plates. She was enjoying a little sun and sand before checking into Alderson Federal Prison Camp in West Virginia.
All of this made us wonder: If you knew you were going to prison on Friday, how would you spend your final days of freedom? We've got some pretty good ideas here.
Randy from Lufkin, Texas, writes: "I would spend my remaining days of freedom hiding at the house. I would be so embarrassed and ashamed of what I had done. Flying off to an island paradise before heading to prison just shines one more spotlight on mad Martha's true colors."
Mel from Cornwall-on-Hudson, New York, writes: "I think Martha had it about right. Her situation is like, but falls short of Dr. Samuel Johnson's observation that nothing more wonderfully concentrates a man's mind than the sure knowledge he is about to be hanged in the morning." Very literary, Mel.
SERWER: Dr. Johnson.
BOROWITZ: Dr. Johnson.
SERWER: Yes.
BOROWITZ: Anonymous writes: "Martha should buy the island and just stay there."
And finally, Paul from Hellertown, Pennsylvania, writes: "I would spend my final days of freedom making sure I couldn't be found on Friday."
I think that's a great idea. That's where I would be.
COLLINS: Definitely breaking the law again.
BOROWITZ: Exactly.
COLLINS: All right, Andy, thanks so much for that. We'll check back a little bit later on.
In the meantime, now back to Bill Hemmer, the guy who is tied with me in the pool now.
HEMMER: Hey, listen, it's a long season, Heidi.
COLLINS: Very long.
HEMMER: There's plenty of time. Let's get a break here. In a moment...
(CROSSTALK)
COLLINS: ... for a second.
HEMMER: You'll be back. Tonight is the battle of No. 2s -- why the stakes may be higher for this vice-presidential debate than for any before it. Stay with us. Back in a moment here at live at the Cleveland Art Museum in northern Ohio after this on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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