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American Morning
Bush's Attack; October Surprises; Simmering Mountain; 'Crowded House'
Aired October 07, 2004 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, fall. A beautiful shot there in New York City. Hey, just about half past the hour now on this AMERICAN MORNING.
President Bush is bringing in a much tougher line of attack to the campaign trail, saying John Kerry would -- quote -- "paralyze America in the war on terror." So, will this strategy work? And how does this tough talk figure into the next debate? As you know, it's coming up tomorrow night. Bill Schneider is going to be with us this morning to give us some answers to those questions.
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: Also, we're going to be following this: A lot of Democrats like to suggest Osama bin Laden will be conveniently captured just before the election. And while most politicians don't go on the record with that, there is always concern in an election year of any type of October surprise for either side. We're going to look at that.
And let's check in with the stories making news on this morning. And for that, Kelly Wallace is joining us.
Hi -- Kelly.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello again to you. And good morning, everyone.
There is new fighting in Gaza this morning as the Israeli military continues its biggest operation there in four years. Israeli soldiers killed two Palestinian teenagers today who, they say, were trying to launch a rocket at an Israeli settlement. More than 75 people have been killed in the area since the Israeli operation began last week.
Secretary of State Colin Powell is seeking $100 million in aid for parts of the Caribbean ravaged by Hurricane Ivan. Powell got a first-hand look at relief efforts yesterday during yesterday's stop in Grenada. The storm killed 37 people there and left half of the population homeless. Grenada's prime minister calls Powell's visit a morale booster.
A former NASA inspector has been indicted for failing to perform -- quote -- "critical inspections" on the shuttle Discovery. Discovery is to be the first shuttle launched after the Columbia disaster last year. Federal prosecutors say the former quality inspector will be arraigned Friday on federal charges. Those charges related to failure to conduct 83 shuttle checks in late 2002 and 2003. And the Nobel Prize for literature was announced just moments ago. Austrian novelist, playwright and poet, Elfriede Jelinek, has been awarded the prize. She's one of only nine women to have won the award and the first since 1996. The highly-anticipated Nobel Peace prize will be announced tomorrow. Great news for her and all for women around the world today.
COLLINS: Yes. And if anybody has a vote on who they think should win the Nobel Peace prize, this is, of course, Andy Borowitz' question today.
WALLACE: Perfect segue there.
COLLINS: We'll get back to you on that.
SANCHEZ: You should get a prize just for pronouncing her name so well.
WALLACE: I try, I try, I try.
COLLINS: You and Arnold Schwarzenegger. All right.
Moving on now to the campaign trail. Presidential hopeful John Kerry took the day off yesterday preparing for tomorrow's debate with George Bush. But President Bush on the campaign trail made one of his strongest attacks to date on a number of Kerry's positions, including Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry assures us that he's the won to win a war he calls a mistake, an error and a diversion. But you can't win a war if you don't believe in fighting.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining me now from Washington this morning to talk more about this newly- sharpened attack, if you will.
Bill -- good morning to you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: So, tomorrow night is the debate. We sort of see a rejiggering, if you will, on President Bush's ideas and his attack on John Kerry. What's behind all of it?
SCHNEIDER: What President Bush is doing is changing the subject. This is supposed to be an election, a referendum on President Bush and his record, whether the voters want to rehire him or fire him. That's what it always is when an incumbent is running for re-election.
But somehow the Bush/Cheney campaign has reconfigured this into a referendum on Senator Kerry and his record as a senator from Massachusetts. That wasn't supposed to happen. But in the debate, the vice presidential debate the other night, Senator Kerry was the main topic, not President Bush and his record. It's hurting Senator Kerry, and he needs to do something fast to re-center this campaign on the Bush record.
COLLINS: And Senator Kerry was not really around to defend himself in all of this. In fact, he left John Edwards to defend himself. Do you think this was a very good idea?
SCHNEIDER: I'm not sure. President Bush took that opportunity yesterday in Wilkes-Barre to do what a lot of people were calling a do-over speech, essentially laying out the positions that he did not do very effectively last week in the debate.
And I think a lot of people were waiting to hear from Senator Kerry, particularly on a day when the Iraq study group report came out with devastating information that essentially Saddam Hussein had not had weapons of mass destruction or a nuclear weapons program, that it was all destroyed at the end of the Persian Gulf war in 1991. This was absolutely devastating and just removed the last argument that the administration could possibly make that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. We wanted to hear from Senator Kerry and see what he could make of this.
COLLINS: Pardon me, Bill. I thought we were going to hear from Senator Kerry there. Let's talk for a moment, if we could, about the next debate then and their strategies, both for President Bush and Senator John Kerry. Do you think that they've done a good job of playing up to their strengths? And what are we going to see in particular for President Bush tomorrow night first?
SCHNEIDER: Well, President Bush I think, is going to talk as much as he possibly can about 9/11. That's his strategy. That was the strategy of the Republican Convention. That's what he talked about that in his speech in Wilkes-Barre. He's got to make this election center on the issue of national security, because that's the one issue that really does work for him, and also to create a referendum on Kerry -- Senator Kerry and his record.
What works for Senator Kerry has got to be to talk about the Bush record. He really hasn't done that as effectively as he should have so far. He has a couple more opportunities, especially with the agenda shifting to the domestic agenda in the next two debates. Senator Kerry has got to essentially answer every question, turn every speech, turn every debate into a discussion of President Bush's record.
COLLINS: And quickly, Bill, before we let you go, this forum is going to be a little bit different than the last time around. We talked for a while about all of those rules. It seemed rather constrictive for the first debate. But this one is going to be sort of a town hall format. Who is going to benefit from that?
SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, you know, the interesting thing is John Edwards is the guy who can do well in that format. He's just as good as Bill Clinton really was. They're masters at connecting with ordinary voters. Unknown how effective both Kerry and Bush will be in that format.
You will remember back in 1992, some of us old-timers remember that debate with the town hall, where the first President Bush didn't seem to connect well with the woman who asked the question about the national debt. And Clinton walked up to her, looked her straight in the eye and said, do you know anyone who has lost a job? Do you know anyone who has lost their home? That's the sort of thing that needs to happen.
But let me remind you, there are rules in this, too. The voters will submit the questions, but they're pre-approved by the commission. And they can't vary from those questions, and they cannot ask follow- ups. And the candidates cannot leave to walk up to the voters. So, they can't do what happened in 1992.
COLLINS: Still a lot of rules, that's for sure.
SCHNEIDER: A lot of rules.
COLLINS: Bill Schneider, thanks so much for that this morning.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
COLLINS: Rick.
SANCHEZ: All right, Heidi, we know with the latest polls coming out it seems to indicate now that President Bush and Senator Kerry are in a statistical dead heat. These next few weeks are going to make a difference in who wins.
Kelly Wallace, once again now, with a look at the prospect for an October surprise that could tip the election one way or another. You know, I was saying this a little while ago, somewhat kiddingly, but a well-placed sneeze could tip this thing one way or another.
WALLACE: That's right, because it's so close.
SANCHEZ: Yes.
WALLACE: Any single thing could shift it. But, you know, what's interesting, you hear talk of an October surprise every four years in presidential politics. But this election, perhaps more than any other in recent history, could be significantly influenced by a surprise event.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE (voice over): Why? A close election during a time of conflict. Democrats are buzzing about it, charging the White House might engineer a last-minute surprise to win the election.
House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi.
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: I assume that it will be something, but we have to be ready for that. WALLACE: Teresa Heinz Kerry went further. Of Osama bin Laden, she recently told a business group in Phoenix: "I wouldn't be surprised if he appeared in the next month."
The president's supporters dismiss it all.
KELLYANNE CONWAY, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I think that October is going to go quietly into the gentle night, and that we'll see the president emerge with more than 50 percent of the vote on election day.
WALLACE: The term "October surprise" gained notoriety in 1980 when Ronald Reagan's campaign was accused of convincing Iran not to free American hostages until after the election. But political observers talk this year of an October surprise that is beyond both campaigns' control, such as the capture of Osama bin Laden. It would provide a huge boost to the president's war on terrorism and undercut Senator Kerry's main argument about Iraq.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Saddam Hussein was a diversion from the real war on terror.
WALLACE: The Afghan elections.
BUSH: The people of Afghanistan will vote in free elections this very week.
WALLACE: If they are peaceful, a plus for Mr. Bush. Any violence could back Senator Kerry's charge the administration took its eye off Afghanistan.
And the biggest wildcard of all? A terrorist attack. The political consequences unknown. Voters could blame the president or solidly stand behind him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
And, of course, there is also Iraq, which is continuing to dominate the presidential campaign, Rick. Any dramatic event over the next 26 days in Iraq could significantly impact this race.
SANCHEZ: It happened last time. The DUI record of the president's which came out, and someone argued kind of tipped the thing at least on the popular vote side for Mr. Gore. Can we put it past these guys to have something and hold it back and wait until the last minute?
WALLACE: We cannot put it past them, of course, especially as the race is so tight. Many political observers think, though, that some of that information would have already come out. But you can't put it past people. They might have stuff for the closing days.
Also, though, obviously President Bush's own supporters think it hurt him in those final days...
SANCHEZ: Yes. WALLACE: ... with some of his support, that the election might not have been as close as it was four years ago.
SANCHEZ: Great story. Thanks, Kelly.
WALLACE: All right.
SANCHEZ: We certainly appreciate it.
And, of course, the presidential candidates are going to face off in round two in St. Louis tomorrow night. CNN's primetime debate coverage begins right here at 7:00 Eastern -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Mount St. Helens seems to be quieting down a little bit. The alert level there was lowered from 3 to 2 yesterday. But officials warn things could change again and quickly.
CNN's Miguel Marquez now with some exclusive video from high above the volcano's dome.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The dome of the volcano, it is the plug holding back another Mount St. Helens's eruption. Studying it gives hints of what's happening below.
LARRY MASTIN, VOLCANOLOGIST: Under the best circumstances, it can tell us at the approximate rate at which magma is rising towards the surface.
MARQUEZ: Bruce and Larry Bergman run an aerial mapping business in Portland, Oregon. They photographed the dome from overhead. The pictures are so detailed, every crack can be measured.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can really see how there have been a lot of pressure pushing up in this area, breaking the ice.
MARQUEZ: Their photos give geologists a three-dimensional look at the dome. When Mount St. Helens erupted last Friday, the Bergmans were overhead.
LARRY BERGMAN, BERGMAN PHOTOGRAPHIC SERVICES: There was glaciers of rocks and boulders shooting straight up in the air for about a two- minute period.
MARQUEZ: The pictures they captured that day illustrate the power of millions of pounds of pressure blasting through rock.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We always have to remember that there is a kind of time bomb down there.
MARQUEZ: Their office? A twin engine Cessna offers spectacular views. The rim crater, razor sharp. So far they've witnessed the dome grow, seen a lake spring up as heat from below melts a slice of the glacier surrounding the dome, and they've seen vents break open. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's majestic. It's a show of nature's power.
MARQUEZ (on camera): The show of nature's power so far has been a warm-up act. Based on the dome's growth, the main event is expected to be explosive.
Miguel Marquez, CNN, near Mount St. Helens, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COLLINS: Scientists continue to say they do not expect a major eruption like the one in 1980 that, as you remember, killed 57 people.
SANCHEZ: A discovery by researchers studying dinosaurs. The earliest known relics of the mighty Tyrannosaurus Rex had primitive feathers, probably to help try and keep him warm. That discovery by two scientists at the American Museum of Natural History working with a team of paleontologists in China. Scientists have never before found any proto-feathers on any other species of Tyrannosaurus Rex or any other type of Tyrannosaurus.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, "Crowded House."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But I couldn't cradle them. I could barely hold them. I was just in a lot of pain. And it was really just affecting me the fact in that I couldn't really respond to my own kids.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Postpartum depression for many women welcoming those bundles of joy can be spoiled by it. Our series continues with Dr. Sanjay Gupta.
SANCHEZ: Also, Howard Stern is moving to satellite radio. And we're going to tell you who is smiling about that. Stay with us. This is AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SANCHEZ: And welcome back, everyone, to AMERICAN MORNING.
This is the kind of story that makes everyone talk about it later on.
COLLINS: It makes some people nervous.
SANCHEZ: Boy, here we go. It's week three of our series. It's called "Crowded House." This is a five-week series looking at the complicated world of raising multiples. COLLINS: So, we're also visiting Soledad O'Brien, who just had her own set of twins, Charlie and Jackson. I got to see them the other day. Cute, cute, cute. Dr. Sanjay Gupta is at the CNN center to tell us more about this particular report -- Sanjay.
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, good morning, Rick and Heidi. Yes, they're very cute, those two, Soledad's twins. Listen, Soledad may not be going through it, but for millions of women out there, postpartum depression is a pretty common reality. And there are questions as well about whether it's worse when you have multiples.
The Bryant family of Montgomery, Alabama, went through it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're a big boy!
GUPTA (voice over): Just over 2 weeks old, and Soledad's babies get their first checkup. Their bill of health and Soledad's: fine.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All right.
GUPTA: But this is the time where, for some moms, things aren't fine; in fact, far from it.
KIM BRYANT, MOTHER OF TWINS: It's time to eat.
GUPTA: Twenty-six-year-old Kim Bryant knew something was wrong when several weeks after giving birth she still couldn't get up off the couch to cradle her twins.
BRYANT: I could barely hold them. I was just in a lot of pain. And it was really just affecting me the fact that I couldn't really respond to my own kids.
GUPTA: Although Kim was never clinically diagnosed with depression, hers is a common story. Eighty percent of women experience baby blues for a few days after birth. But for 10 percent, especially those with a history of depression, those blues can spiral into full-flown depression.
BRYANT: It's just, you know, a hormonal thing. You have you so many hormones, and once you get pregnant, they're trying to leave and sort their way out.
GUPTA: And as soon as a woman delivers, those hormones change. Some say that can be even more dramatic in the case of multiples. That hasn't been proven. But still, many of these women experience depression even during pregnancy. And then they face the difficult question of whether to take medication.
DR. LORI ATSHULLER, UCLA MOOD DISORDERS RESEARCH CENTER: Most women are very concerned about what affects the anti-depressant would have on the developing fetus.
GUPTA: For Kim and many women, that concern remains even after the birth. BRYANT: I was still, you know, trying to breast feed, so I didn't want any medication interfering with that.
GUPTA: Some consumers groups are ardently opposed to pregnant women taking anti-depressants, saying they could cause problems for the baby in the late stages of pregnancy. But doctors argue a depressed mom could be dangerous for a baby's health.
DR. ZACHARY STOWE, EMORY U. WOMEN'S HEALTH PROG.: Maternal depression during pregnancy is associated with lower birth weight, pre-term delivery, higher rates of smoking and alcohol use.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA: And some signs of postpartum depression: A few weeks after birth, you may experience a lack of interest or connection with your baby. Also, losing your appetite or having difficulty sleeping. Those are some of the things to sort of look out for -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes, boy, you really feel for these moms. And, you know, you talked about it a little bit, Sanjay, but what about the women who are depressed during pregnancy? What's the best advice for them? Should they really be taking drugs, I mean, anti-depressants?
GUPTA: Yes. I mean, this is a pretty complicated question for sure. You're going to have a have a conversation between a woman and her doctor. Doctors will probably steer women away from some of the medications, but they will tell you as well that leaving depression unchecked would be the worst decision of all. The sooner it's dealt with, the best chance of recovery for mom and for baby as well -- Heidi.
SANCHEZ: Are there other natural alternatives, though, something you can go to as far as maybe vitamins or something?
GUPTA: Yes, there are natural alternatives. There are drugs that are probably going to have less of an impact on the fetus, sometimes in the form of supplements or vitamins, a good diet. But, again, there is also talk therapy. Again, really conversations between the mom and her doctor.
SANCHEZ: What about next week? What do you got coming up for our "Crowded House" series?
GUPTA: Well, next week we're going to go to a very crowded house to talk with the multiples themselves. What are their lives like? We'll meet the Switt (ph) family, who had triplets and quadruplets. What is life like for them as the multiples grow up? That's part four of our series called "Crowded House." That's next Thursday on AMERICAN MORNING.
SANCHEZ: Shouldn't you say, busy? COLLINS: I can't even add that high. That's a lot of kids.
SANCHEZ: Sanjay Gupta, hey, thanks a lot.
GUPTA: Thanks, guys.
SANCHEZ: All right.
COLLINS: And still to come this morning, serious money. The satellite radio company's stock shot up on the news of this man, Howard Stern, and his big deal. Andy Serwer will tell us if it's a buy, hold or sell, coming up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SANCHEZ: Welcome back. This is AMERICAN MORNING.
A preview of the stock markets, and the stock of one particular satellite radio company is shooting skyward.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes.
SANCHEZ: Andy Serwer here "Minding Your Business."
Gee, I wonder which one it could be.
SERWER: Yes, we're going to get to that in one second. Let's look at the overall market first, though, Rick. A good day on Wall Street, shrugging off those higher oil prices. The Dow is up 62 points. Nasdaq up seven days in a row, lucky seven. And look at those numbers. See, we keep hovering around Dow 10000 and Nasdaq 2000 for how long? For years, years and years and years.
All right, Rick. You cannot be Sirius! That's John McEnroe. Howard Stern went over to Sirius satellite radio yesterday. And you probably know that unless you were asleep all day. The stock was up sharply, 52 cents. That's a 15 percent spike to $3.87. And that's not bad if you happen to a Sirius shareholders. We've been talking about that this morning.
Now, one stock that should be moving today that's kind of interesting, Lazy Boy, yes, Lazy Boy recliners warning last night that it's not going to meet its profit forecast for the next quarter. This is some nice footage showing some consumers utilizing their products. Is that funny?
Now interesting. Why? Because higher prices of steel and lumber are crimping them. And it's actually good, because I thought the reason that they weren't doing so well is because less people wanted to repose. But that's not the case, as it turns out. We still have a nice group of reposing Americans out there.
SANCHEZ: Real quick, do you think these folks who listen to Howard Stern are going to go religiously with him on to satellite radio?
SERWER: He has 12 million subscribers. And I think enough of them will go over there to make it worthwhile.
SANCHEZ: Wow! All right, Andy, thanks.
COLLINS: Maybe he's the one who is spreading the peace as we check in with Andy Borowitz...
SERWER: Oh.
COLLINS: ... filling in for Jack Cafferty today. And an interesting question.
ANDY BOROWITZ, "THE BOROWITZ REPORT": Yes. Well, it's Nobel time. The Nobel Peace prize community will announce the winner of that ultimate honor tomorrow. Now, the prize is given to the person has most advanced the cause of peace in the year just past. But it has also been criticized for being used to make a political statement.
The 194 nominees are secret, but some of the names being bandied about are the IAEA's Mohamed ElBaradei and weapons inspector chief Hans Blix.
So, our question to you today is: Who should win the Nobel Peace prize and why? Interesting ideas.
Dean writes: "I think the Nobel Peace prize should go to George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld just to annoy the hell out of Michael Moore."
Susan writes: "Jacques Chirac for living up to the creed "friends don't let friends invade foreign countries under false pretenses."
Fitz writes: "I think the Nobel Peace prize should go to John Kerry. It would give him something else to throw over the fence at the White House."
And finally, Paul writes -- and I love this. He says: "I should win. I stayed in my house all year and didn't bother anyone. Please send cash."
There you go, Paul.
COLLINS: Oh, that's my kind of guy, Paul? All right.
BOROWITZ: There you go.
COLLINS: All right, Andy, thanks so much for that.
SANCHEZ: And still to come right here, well, President Bush makes his harshest remarks yet toward John Kerry. What does it mean going into tomorrow night's debate? Stay with us. This is AMERICAN MORNING.
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Aired October 7, 2004 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, fall. A beautiful shot there in New York City. Hey, just about half past the hour now on this AMERICAN MORNING.
President Bush is bringing in a much tougher line of attack to the campaign trail, saying John Kerry would -- quote -- "paralyze America in the war on terror." So, will this strategy work? And how does this tough talk figure into the next debate? As you know, it's coming up tomorrow night. Bill Schneider is going to be with us this morning to give us some answers to those questions.
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: Also, we're going to be following this: A lot of Democrats like to suggest Osama bin Laden will be conveniently captured just before the election. And while most politicians don't go on the record with that, there is always concern in an election year of any type of October surprise for either side. We're going to look at that.
And let's check in with the stories making news on this morning. And for that, Kelly Wallace is joining us.
Hi -- Kelly.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello again to you. And good morning, everyone.
There is new fighting in Gaza this morning as the Israeli military continues its biggest operation there in four years. Israeli soldiers killed two Palestinian teenagers today who, they say, were trying to launch a rocket at an Israeli settlement. More than 75 people have been killed in the area since the Israeli operation began last week.
Secretary of State Colin Powell is seeking $100 million in aid for parts of the Caribbean ravaged by Hurricane Ivan. Powell got a first-hand look at relief efforts yesterday during yesterday's stop in Grenada. The storm killed 37 people there and left half of the population homeless. Grenada's prime minister calls Powell's visit a morale booster.
A former NASA inspector has been indicted for failing to perform -- quote -- "critical inspections" on the shuttle Discovery. Discovery is to be the first shuttle launched after the Columbia disaster last year. Federal prosecutors say the former quality inspector will be arraigned Friday on federal charges. Those charges related to failure to conduct 83 shuttle checks in late 2002 and 2003. And the Nobel Prize for literature was announced just moments ago. Austrian novelist, playwright and poet, Elfriede Jelinek, has been awarded the prize. She's one of only nine women to have won the award and the first since 1996. The highly-anticipated Nobel Peace prize will be announced tomorrow. Great news for her and all for women around the world today.
COLLINS: Yes. And if anybody has a vote on who they think should win the Nobel Peace prize, this is, of course, Andy Borowitz' question today.
WALLACE: Perfect segue there.
COLLINS: We'll get back to you on that.
SANCHEZ: You should get a prize just for pronouncing her name so well.
WALLACE: I try, I try, I try.
COLLINS: You and Arnold Schwarzenegger. All right.
Moving on now to the campaign trail. Presidential hopeful John Kerry took the day off yesterday preparing for tomorrow's debate with George Bush. But President Bush on the campaign trail made one of his strongest attacks to date on a number of Kerry's positions, including Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry assures us that he's the won to win a war he calls a mistake, an error and a diversion. But you can't win a war if you don't believe in fighting.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining me now from Washington this morning to talk more about this newly- sharpened attack, if you will.
Bill -- good morning to you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: So, tomorrow night is the debate. We sort of see a rejiggering, if you will, on President Bush's ideas and his attack on John Kerry. What's behind all of it?
SCHNEIDER: What President Bush is doing is changing the subject. This is supposed to be an election, a referendum on President Bush and his record, whether the voters want to rehire him or fire him. That's what it always is when an incumbent is running for re-election.
But somehow the Bush/Cheney campaign has reconfigured this into a referendum on Senator Kerry and his record as a senator from Massachusetts. That wasn't supposed to happen. But in the debate, the vice presidential debate the other night, Senator Kerry was the main topic, not President Bush and his record. It's hurting Senator Kerry, and he needs to do something fast to re-center this campaign on the Bush record.
COLLINS: And Senator Kerry was not really around to defend himself in all of this. In fact, he left John Edwards to defend himself. Do you think this was a very good idea?
SCHNEIDER: I'm not sure. President Bush took that opportunity yesterday in Wilkes-Barre to do what a lot of people were calling a do-over speech, essentially laying out the positions that he did not do very effectively last week in the debate.
And I think a lot of people were waiting to hear from Senator Kerry, particularly on a day when the Iraq study group report came out with devastating information that essentially Saddam Hussein had not had weapons of mass destruction or a nuclear weapons program, that it was all destroyed at the end of the Persian Gulf war in 1991. This was absolutely devastating and just removed the last argument that the administration could possibly make that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. We wanted to hear from Senator Kerry and see what he could make of this.
COLLINS: Pardon me, Bill. I thought we were going to hear from Senator Kerry there. Let's talk for a moment, if we could, about the next debate then and their strategies, both for President Bush and Senator John Kerry. Do you think that they've done a good job of playing up to their strengths? And what are we going to see in particular for President Bush tomorrow night first?
SCHNEIDER: Well, President Bush I think, is going to talk as much as he possibly can about 9/11. That's his strategy. That was the strategy of the Republican Convention. That's what he talked about that in his speech in Wilkes-Barre. He's got to make this election center on the issue of national security, because that's the one issue that really does work for him, and also to create a referendum on Kerry -- Senator Kerry and his record.
What works for Senator Kerry has got to be to talk about the Bush record. He really hasn't done that as effectively as he should have so far. He has a couple more opportunities, especially with the agenda shifting to the domestic agenda in the next two debates. Senator Kerry has got to essentially answer every question, turn every speech, turn every debate into a discussion of President Bush's record.
COLLINS: And quickly, Bill, before we let you go, this forum is going to be a little bit different than the last time around. We talked for a while about all of those rules. It seemed rather constrictive for the first debate. But this one is going to be sort of a town hall format. Who is going to benefit from that?
SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, you know, the interesting thing is John Edwards is the guy who can do well in that format. He's just as good as Bill Clinton really was. They're masters at connecting with ordinary voters. Unknown how effective both Kerry and Bush will be in that format.
You will remember back in 1992, some of us old-timers remember that debate with the town hall, where the first President Bush didn't seem to connect well with the woman who asked the question about the national debt. And Clinton walked up to her, looked her straight in the eye and said, do you know anyone who has lost a job? Do you know anyone who has lost their home? That's the sort of thing that needs to happen.
But let me remind you, there are rules in this, too. The voters will submit the questions, but they're pre-approved by the commission. And they can't vary from those questions, and they cannot ask follow- ups. And the candidates cannot leave to walk up to the voters. So, they can't do what happened in 1992.
COLLINS: Still a lot of rules, that's for sure.
SCHNEIDER: A lot of rules.
COLLINS: Bill Schneider, thanks so much for that this morning.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
COLLINS: Rick.
SANCHEZ: All right, Heidi, we know with the latest polls coming out it seems to indicate now that President Bush and Senator Kerry are in a statistical dead heat. These next few weeks are going to make a difference in who wins.
Kelly Wallace, once again now, with a look at the prospect for an October surprise that could tip the election one way or another. You know, I was saying this a little while ago, somewhat kiddingly, but a well-placed sneeze could tip this thing one way or another.
WALLACE: That's right, because it's so close.
SANCHEZ: Yes.
WALLACE: Any single thing could shift it. But, you know, what's interesting, you hear talk of an October surprise every four years in presidential politics. But this election, perhaps more than any other in recent history, could be significantly influenced by a surprise event.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE (voice over): Why? A close election during a time of conflict. Democrats are buzzing about it, charging the White House might engineer a last-minute surprise to win the election.
House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi.
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: I assume that it will be something, but we have to be ready for that. WALLACE: Teresa Heinz Kerry went further. Of Osama bin Laden, she recently told a business group in Phoenix: "I wouldn't be surprised if he appeared in the next month."
The president's supporters dismiss it all.
KELLYANNE CONWAY, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I think that October is going to go quietly into the gentle night, and that we'll see the president emerge with more than 50 percent of the vote on election day.
WALLACE: The term "October surprise" gained notoriety in 1980 when Ronald Reagan's campaign was accused of convincing Iran not to free American hostages until after the election. But political observers talk this year of an October surprise that is beyond both campaigns' control, such as the capture of Osama bin Laden. It would provide a huge boost to the president's war on terrorism and undercut Senator Kerry's main argument about Iraq.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Saddam Hussein was a diversion from the real war on terror.
WALLACE: The Afghan elections.
BUSH: The people of Afghanistan will vote in free elections this very week.
WALLACE: If they are peaceful, a plus for Mr. Bush. Any violence could back Senator Kerry's charge the administration took its eye off Afghanistan.
And the biggest wildcard of all? A terrorist attack. The political consequences unknown. Voters could blame the president or solidly stand behind him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
And, of course, there is also Iraq, which is continuing to dominate the presidential campaign, Rick. Any dramatic event over the next 26 days in Iraq could significantly impact this race.
SANCHEZ: It happened last time. The DUI record of the president's which came out, and someone argued kind of tipped the thing at least on the popular vote side for Mr. Gore. Can we put it past these guys to have something and hold it back and wait until the last minute?
WALLACE: We cannot put it past them, of course, especially as the race is so tight. Many political observers think, though, that some of that information would have already come out. But you can't put it past people. They might have stuff for the closing days.
Also, though, obviously President Bush's own supporters think it hurt him in those final days...
SANCHEZ: Yes. WALLACE: ... with some of his support, that the election might not have been as close as it was four years ago.
SANCHEZ: Great story. Thanks, Kelly.
WALLACE: All right.
SANCHEZ: We certainly appreciate it.
And, of course, the presidential candidates are going to face off in round two in St. Louis tomorrow night. CNN's primetime debate coverage begins right here at 7:00 Eastern -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Mount St. Helens seems to be quieting down a little bit. The alert level there was lowered from 3 to 2 yesterday. But officials warn things could change again and quickly.
CNN's Miguel Marquez now with some exclusive video from high above the volcano's dome.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The dome of the volcano, it is the plug holding back another Mount St. Helens's eruption. Studying it gives hints of what's happening below.
LARRY MASTIN, VOLCANOLOGIST: Under the best circumstances, it can tell us at the approximate rate at which magma is rising towards the surface.
MARQUEZ: Bruce and Larry Bergman run an aerial mapping business in Portland, Oregon. They photographed the dome from overhead. The pictures are so detailed, every crack can be measured.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can really see how there have been a lot of pressure pushing up in this area, breaking the ice.
MARQUEZ: Their photos give geologists a three-dimensional look at the dome. When Mount St. Helens erupted last Friday, the Bergmans were overhead.
LARRY BERGMAN, BERGMAN PHOTOGRAPHIC SERVICES: There was glaciers of rocks and boulders shooting straight up in the air for about a two- minute period.
MARQUEZ: The pictures they captured that day illustrate the power of millions of pounds of pressure blasting through rock.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We always have to remember that there is a kind of time bomb down there.
MARQUEZ: Their office? A twin engine Cessna offers spectacular views. The rim crater, razor sharp. So far they've witnessed the dome grow, seen a lake spring up as heat from below melts a slice of the glacier surrounding the dome, and they've seen vents break open. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's majestic. It's a show of nature's power.
MARQUEZ (on camera): The show of nature's power so far has been a warm-up act. Based on the dome's growth, the main event is expected to be explosive.
Miguel Marquez, CNN, near Mount St. Helens, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COLLINS: Scientists continue to say they do not expect a major eruption like the one in 1980 that, as you remember, killed 57 people.
SANCHEZ: A discovery by researchers studying dinosaurs. The earliest known relics of the mighty Tyrannosaurus Rex had primitive feathers, probably to help try and keep him warm. That discovery by two scientists at the American Museum of Natural History working with a team of paleontologists in China. Scientists have never before found any proto-feathers on any other species of Tyrannosaurus Rex or any other type of Tyrannosaurus.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, "Crowded House."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But I couldn't cradle them. I could barely hold them. I was just in a lot of pain. And it was really just affecting me the fact in that I couldn't really respond to my own kids.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Postpartum depression for many women welcoming those bundles of joy can be spoiled by it. Our series continues with Dr. Sanjay Gupta.
SANCHEZ: Also, Howard Stern is moving to satellite radio. And we're going to tell you who is smiling about that. Stay with us. This is AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SANCHEZ: And welcome back, everyone, to AMERICAN MORNING.
This is the kind of story that makes everyone talk about it later on.
COLLINS: It makes some people nervous.
SANCHEZ: Boy, here we go. It's week three of our series. It's called "Crowded House." This is a five-week series looking at the complicated world of raising multiples. COLLINS: So, we're also visiting Soledad O'Brien, who just had her own set of twins, Charlie and Jackson. I got to see them the other day. Cute, cute, cute. Dr. Sanjay Gupta is at the CNN center to tell us more about this particular report -- Sanjay.
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, good morning, Rick and Heidi. Yes, they're very cute, those two, Soledad's twins. Listen, Soledad may not be going through it, but for millions of women out there, postpartum depression is a pretty common reality. And there are questions as well about whether it's worse when you have multiples.
The Bryant family of Montgomery, Alabama, went through it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're a big boy!
GUPTA (voice over): Just over 2 weeks old, and Soledad's babies get their first checkup. Their bill of health and Soledad's: fine.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All right.
GUPTA: But this is the time where, for some moms, things aren't fine; in fact, far from it.
KIM BRYANT, MOTHER OF TWINS: It's time to eat.
GUPTA: Twenty-six-year-old Kim Bryant knew something was wrong when several weeks after giving birth she still couldn't get up off the couch to cradle her twins.
BRYANT: I could barely hold them. I was just in a lot of pain. And it was really just affecting me the fact that I couldn't really respond to my own kids.
GUPTA: Although Kim was never clinically diagnosed with depression, hers is a common story. Eighty percent of women experience baby blues for a few days after birth. But for 10 percent, especially those with a history of depression, those blues can spiral into full-flown depression.
BRYANT: It's just, you know, a hormonal thing. You have you so many hormones, and once you get pregnant, they're trying to leave and sort their way out.
GUPTA: And as soon as a woman delivers, those hormones change. Some say that can be even more dramatic in the case of multiples. That hasn't been proven. But still, many of these women experience depression even during pregnancy. And then they face the difficult question of whether to take medication.
DR. LORI ATSHULLER, UCLA MOOD DISORDERS RESEARCH CENTER: Most women are very concerned about what affects the anti-depressant would have on the developing fetus.
GUPTA: For Kim and many women, that concern remains even after the birth. BRYANT: I was still, you know, trying to breast feed, so I didn't want any medication interfering with that.
GUPTA: Some consumers groups are ardently opposed to pregnant women taking anti-depressants, saying they could cause problems for the baby in the late stages of pregnancy. But doctors argue a depressed mom could be dangerous for a baby's health.
DR. ZACHARY STOWE, EMORY U. WOMEN'S HEALTH PROG.: Maternal depression during pregnancy is associated with lower birth weight, pre-term delivery, higher rates of smoking and alcohol use.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA: And some signs of postpartum depression: A few weeks after birth, you may experience a lack of interest or connection with your baby. Also, losing your appetite or having difficulty sleeping. Those are some of the things to sort of look out for -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes, boy, you really feel for these moms. And, you know, you talked about it a little bit, Sanjay, but what about the women who are depressed during pregnancy? What's the best advice for them? Should they really be taking drugs, I mean, anti-depressants?
GUPTA: Yes. I mean, this is a pretty complicated question for sure. You're going to have a have a conversation between a woman and her doctor. Doctors will probably steer women away from some of the medications, but they will tell you as well that leaving depression unchecked would be the worst decision of all. The sooner it's dealt with, the best chance of recovery for mom and for baby as well -- Heidi.
SANCHEZ: Are there other natural alternatives, though, something you can go to as far as maybe vitamins or something?
GUPTA: Yes, there are natural alternatives. There are drugs that are probably going to have less of an impact on the fetus, sometimes in the form of supplements or vitamins, a good diet. But, again, there is also talk therapy. Again, really conversations between the mom and her doctor.
SANCHEZ: What about next week? What do you got coming up for our "Crowded House" series?
GUPTA: Well, next week we're going to go to a very crowded house to talk with the multiples themselves. What are their lives like? We'll meet the Switt (ph) family, who had triplets and quadruplets. What is life like for them as the multiples grow up? That's part four of our series called "Crowded House." That's next Thursday on AMERICAN MORNING.
SANCHEZ: Shouldn't you say, busy? COLLINS: I can't even add that high. That's a lot of kids.
SANCHEZ: Sanjay Gupta, hey, thanks a lot.
GUPTA: Thanks, guys.
SANCHEZ: All right.
COLLINS: And still to come this morning, serious money. The satellite radio company's stock shot up on the news of this man, Howard Stern, and his big deal. Andy Serwer will tell us if it's a buy, hold or sell, coming up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SANCHEZ: Welcome back. This is AMERICAN MORNING.
A preview of the stock markets, and the stock of one particular satellite radio company is shooting skyward.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes.
SANCHEZ: Andy Serwer here "Minding Your Business."
Gee, I wonder which one it could be.
SERWER: Yes, we're going to get to that in one second. Let's look at the overall market first, though, Rick. A good day on Wall Street, shrugging off those higher oil prices. The Dow is up 62 points. Nasdaq up seven days in a row, lucky seven. And look at those numbers. See, we keep hovering around Dow 10000 and Nasdaq 2000 for how long? For years, years and years and years.
All right, Rick. You cannot be Sirius! That's John McEnroe. Howard Stern went over to Sirius satellite radio yesterday. And you probably know that unless you were asleep all day. The stock was up sharply, 52 cents. That's a 15 percent spike to $3.87. And that's not bad if you happen to a Sirius shareholders. We've been talking about that this morning.
Now, one stock that should be moving today that's kind of interesting, Lazy Boy, yes, Lazy Boy recliners warning last night that it's not going to meet its profit forecast for the next quarter. This is some nice footage showing some consumers utilizing their products. Is that funny?
Now interesting. Why? Because higher prices of steel and lumber are crimping them. And it's actually good, because I thought the reason that they weren't doing so well is because less people wanted to repose. But that's not the case, as it turns out. We still have a nice group of reposing Americans out there.
SANCHEZ: Real quick, do you think these folks who listen to Howard Stern are going to go religiously with him on to satellite radio?
SERWER: He has 12 million subscribers. And I think enough of them will go over there to make it worthwhile.
SANCHEZ: Wow! All right, Andy, thanks.
COLLINS: Maybe he's the one who is spreading the peace as we check in with Andy Borowitz...
SERWER: Oh.
COLLINS: ... filling in for Jack Cafferty today. And an interesting question.
ANDY BOROWITZ, "THE BOROWITZ REPORT": Yes. Well, it's Nobel time. The Nobel Peace prize community will announce the winner of that ultimate honor tomorrow. Now, the prize is given to the person has most advanced the cause of peace in the year just past. But it has also been criticized for being used to make a political statement.
The 194 nominees are secret, but some of the names being bandied about are the IAEA's Mohamed ElBaradei and weapons inspector chief Hans Blix.
So, our question to you today is: Who should win the Nobel Peace prize and why? Interesting ideas.
Dean writes: "I think the Nobel Peace prize should go to George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld just to annoy the hell out of Michael Moore."
Susan writes: "Jacques Chirac for living up to the creed "friends don't let friends invade foreign countries under false pretenses."
Fitz writes: "I think the Nobel Peace prize should go to John Kerry. It would give him something else to throw over the fence at the White House."
And finally, Paul writes -- and I love this. He says: "I should win. I stayed in my house all year and didn't bother anyone. Please send cash."
There you go, Paul.
COLLINS: Oh, that's my kind of guy, Paul? All right.
BOROWITZ: There you go.
COLLINS: All right, Andy, thanks so much for that.
SANCHEZ: And still to come right here, well, President Bush makes his harshest remarks yet toward John Kerry. What does it mean going into tomorrow night's debate? Stay with us. This is AMERICAN MORNING.
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