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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Bush, Kerry Neck and Neck in Florida; Border Crisis Key Issue in Congressional Campaigns
Aired October 19, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, President Bush and Senator Kerry are neck and neck in the latest opinion poll. The intensity of their attacks escalated today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My fellow Americans, on November 2, Social Security is on the ballot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My opponent will say anything he thinks will benefit him politically at the time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Republicans and Democrats fighting to control the Senate and the House. Tonight, we'll have a special report on the races that will determine the outcome.
Senator Kerry's service in Vietnam has been a central issue in this campaign. Tonight, my guest is historian Douglas Brinkley, author of "Tour of Duty." I'll also be talking with Republican strategist Charlie Black.
And border states facing nothing less than an invasion of illegal aliens, but some business leaders in Arizona are fighting to stop a ballot initiative that would make the state less attractive to illegal aliens.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JULIE PACE, ARIZONA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: We are trying to do what we can with the grassroots and the business community support.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Tonight, we'll have a special report.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Tuesday, October 19. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening. Tonight, a new opinion poll says President Bush and Senator Kerry are now in a dead heat. The Reuters/Zogby poll says both candidates are now supported by 45 percent of likely voters.
Today, Senator Kerry again suggested President Bush has a secret plan to privatize Social Security. President Bush rejects the charge, and the president said Senator Kerry is using what he called old-style scare tactics on Social Security and other issues.
Dana Bash is covering the president's campaign and reports from Newport Richey, Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just minutes into his first Florida rally of the day, the president tried to stop a Kerry attack line for sticking that new policies are responsible for the flu shot shortage.
BUSH: I want to ensure them that our government is doing everything possible to help older Americans and children get their shots, despite the major manufacturing defect that caused this problem.
BASH: The problem effects crucial voting blocks like seniors. He promised more vaccine is coming.
For much of the campaign, the Bush team tried to stay on their message by letting others, not the president, respond to John Kerry. No more.
BUSH: My opponent will say anything he thinks that will benefit him politically at the time.
BASH: Senator Kerry's been slamming the president for reportedly saying he wants to privatize Social Security, a red flag for elderly voters.
President Bush in St. Petersburg:
BUSH: We will keep the promise of Social Security for all our seniors.
BASH: Senator Kerry's been stoking the idea Mr. Bush plans to reinstate the draft.
The president later in Newport Richey:
BUSH: We will not have a draft. We will have an all-volunteer army.
BASH: And the day after the Kerry campaign accused Mr. Bush of using scare tactics in talking terrorism, the president's kicker:
BUSH: On November 2, the people of America will reject the politics of fear. BASH: The stepped-up defense, perhaps from fear Kerry's lines here are working. For sure proof, the president can't leave anything to chance with these 27 electoral votes.
(on camera): Three full days of campaigning in a week shows the state is just as important now as it was to the president four years ago. Some Republicans worry all of the president's attention here comes at the expense of other battleground states like Ohio. Bush aides insist they can and will do it all.
Dana Bash, CNN, The Villages, Florida.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Senator Kerry today left Florida to campaign in Pennsylvania and other key states that could determine the outcome of this election. Senator Kerry intensified his attacks today on President Bush. The senator criticized the president's policies on the economy, health care and national security.
Frank Buckley reports from Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
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FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator John Kerry invoked the name of Franklin Roosevelt in his visit to Pennsylvania, 72 years to the day, he said, after FDR visited the Keystone State. Kerry saying President Bush was the first president since the one Roosevelt replaced to lose jobs on his watch.
KERRY: And as Roosevelt said back then, President Hoover's policies had jeopardized "the welfare of our people and the credit of our country." And so has George W. Bush's.
BUCKLEY: The Bush campaign points to other indicators that they say show the economy is growing. Still, Kerry criticized President Bush's economic policies and claimed Bush has plans to privatize Social Security.
KERRY: On November 2, Social Security is on the ballot -- a choice between one candidate who will save Social Security and another who will undermine it.
BUCKLEY: But as Kerry pressed the case against President Bush on domestic issues, he also responded to sharp attacks from President Bush on his national security credentials.
KERRY: I believe that we need a president who defends America and fights for the middle class at the same time.
BUCKLEY (on camera): A senior Kerry strategist described this as a very critical period during which the Kerry campaign intended to very aggressively respond to President Bush's criticisms. As this adviser put it, if we can answer it or at least neutralize it, we'll be in a very strong position in the closing days of this campaign.
Frank Buckley, CNN, Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: As we have reported extensively here, the presidential candidates, both of them, have failed to address an issue of great concern to millions of Americans, the massive influx of illegal aliens into this country, as many as three million this year alone, and the many consequences of the invasion. The border crisis, however, has become a key issue in a number of congressional campaigns across the country.
Peter Viles has that report.
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PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's the issue Washington and the major parties won't touch: the border crisis. A key issue, however, in a handful of congressional races.
In Southern California, Democrat Cynthia Matthews trying to knock off powerful Republican David Dreier, saying Dreier hasn't done enough to fight illegal immigration.
CYNTHIA MATTHEWS (D), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: What part of illegal do people not understand? They're not here legally. They're competing with our job market, and, when they do make the money, the money leaves our district, leaves our state, leaves our country.
VILES: No media outlet has polled Dreier's district, and Republicans believe his seat is safe.
Another incumbent under attack in California: Democrat Joe Baca who prevailed on Homeland Security to stop rounding up illegal aliens.
ED LANING (R), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: He's advocating for illegal immigrants rather than advocating for the citizens of his district. We have hospitals closing. Our social infrastructure is stressed to almost the breaking point.
VILES: Again, no media polling in that district. Democrats believe Baca is safe.
A third California incumbent under attack on immigration: Democrat Loretta Sanchez facing Republican Tim Escobar who gives her an F minus on border security issues.
The tightest race where immigration is at issue: Oklahoma Senate, an open seat, polls neck and neck there between Republican Tom Coburn and Democrat Brad Carson. A major difference: Coburn has supported using the military to patrol the border.
In Kansas, Republican challenger Kris Kobach also pushing for troops on the border in his race to unseat Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore. No media polling there yet. Republicans believe Kobach has a shot. In Utah, a rematch of a very tight race two years ago, Republican challenger John Swallow stressing border protection against incumbent Jim Matheson. But a recent "Deseret Morning News" poll shows Matheson with a commanding lead.
Peter Viles, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Our nation's border crisis is also the focus of a controversial ballot measure in the state where most illegal aliens are now entering this country, Arizona. Proposition 200 would stop illegal aliens from receiving many of the benefits of citizenship in that state. Yet many Arizona businesses are fighting aggressively to defeat it.
Casey Wian has the story.
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CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The ballot initiative known as Protect Arizona Now seemed a sure political bet last month. Proposition 200 would deny state services to illegal aliens, require state employees to report illegal aliens who try to apply for public benefits and require voters to prove citizenship.
Two-thirds of Arizona voters supported Proposition 200 in September. Since then, support has narrowed sharply. A new poll shows just 42 percent of likely voters in favor, with 29 percent opposed. It's an uncomfortable margin considering that another 29 percent of voters are undecided, more than enough to change the outcome.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When lives are at stake, I don't have the time to check I.D.s.
WIAN: Voters have been influenced by an 11th-hour media and Internet blitz by Proposition 200 opponents.
KATHY MCKEE, CHAIRMAN, PROTECT ARIZONA NOW: Every hour on the hour, you see the police and the firemen on there with the -- their scare tactics that are so not true that they're going to be effected because they're not going to be remotely effected. All of the political leaders are really kicking up their opposition. The churches, oh, my goodness, are turning this into a religious issue.
WIAN: Arizona's Chamber of Commerce is a main force behind the opposition.
PACE: We are trying to do what we can with the grassroots and the business community support late in the game to try to get the word out before it's passed and because we cause our state a lot of aggravation.
WIAN: Supporters say Proposition 200 is simply an effort to remove the lure of free social services for illegal aliens and to combat voter fraud. Opponents are trying to compare it to California's Proposition 187 which passed 10 years ago but was blocked by court challenges.
(on camera): 187 is still blamed for turning conservative Latinos in California against Republicans. Many believe the same thing could happen in Arizona if Proposition 200 passes there.
Casey Wian, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. The question: Would you support Arizona's Proposition 200 or a similar ballot initiative in your state? Yes or no. Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results here later.
Coming right up, the battle for Congress. A small number of states could determine which party controls the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.
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NATHAN GONZALES, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Overall, we're looking at eight competitive races, all of which are pretty much toss- ups right now.
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DOBBS: Tonight, we will have a special report on the swing state races in both the House and the Senate.
Senator Kerry's service in Vietnam, a central issue in the campaign. Historian Douglas Brinkley, author of "Tour of Duty," is my guest tonight.
And the giant sucking sound of American jobs being shipped overseas, originating not now in Mexico, but other countries with cheap labor markets.
That story, a great deal more still ahead here.
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DOBBS: Voters will decide elections for one-third of the seats in the U.S. Senate and all 435 seats in the House. Republicans control, of course, both the Senate and the House, and voters in 34 of our 50 states will elect senators next month. In 15 states, the incumbent is a Republican senator; the incumbent in the other 19, Democrat.
Kitty Pilgrim now reports on the fight to control the Senate, Bill Tucker is covering the battle for the House, and, tonight, we begin with Kitty -- Kitty.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Lou, it isn't just the presidential race that's the squeaker here. Now the Senate is also in play with closely contested races in several states.
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PILGRIM (voice-over): It isn't just the presidential race that is tight. A handful of states may decide majority in the Senate.
GONZALES: Control of the Senate is definitely in play. It's definitely up for grabs. In general, control is critical to either party. Overall, we're looking at eight competitive races, all of which are pretty much toss-ups right now.
PILGRIM: Right now, Republicans have a narrow majority of 51 to 48 and one independent, but, with two weeks to go, some races are too close to call.
But many political watchers say the Democrats face the tougher fight. Democrats have four southern states that are deeply in contest that they hold, plus South Dakota. The Republicans have to defend Alaska, Colorado and Oklahoma.
NORMAN ORNSTEIN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: Democrats have more seats, more to defend this time, and, at the same time, a number of Democratic seats are open, no one incumbents running. Because you've got open seats and there are five of them in the South in states carried by Bush four years ago, Democrats could fall further into a hole in terms of recapturing a majority.
PILGRIM: Of those, South Dakota's race between Tom Daschle and John Thune is a headliner. Two of the states, Florida and Colorado, are important because they are major presidential battleground states. And Louisiana opposes a special problem because if no candidate gets over 50 percent, there has to be a December runoff.
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PILGRIM: Now political scientists say the implication of who controls the Senate extends beyond how policy is to be voted on on the Senate floor. It also effects the future composition of the Supreme Court. That's because the Senate holds the confirmation hearings on the Supreme Court nominees -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much.
The battle for control over the House will probably be decided by voters in only three dozen congressional districts. Bill Tucker has that story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL TUCKER, CNN FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Every seat, all 435 of them, are up for reelection, and, with the Republicans currently holding a slim advantage over Democrats, things could get interesting.
There are 34 open seats up for grabs, meaning seats where the sitting incumbent is not running for reelection. Those are the most interesting because in those seats lie a possible shift in the balance of power.
If the Democrats can gain control of 13 seats, the House will belong to them. Not likely to happen, though.
AMY WALTER, EDITOR, "COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Right now, we're not looking at a possibility of a Democratic takeover of Congress. Republicans are poised right now to hold on to the majority. The question now is what majority looks like. Is it a little bit bigger than what it is right now, or is it a little bit smaller?
TUCKER: Texas is the only place with several incumbents in trouble, and there House Majority Leader Tom DeLay stacked the decks, successfully redrawing districts to give the advantage to five Republican challengers. But, otherwise, if this were a race of all incumbents, it would hardly would be worth nothing.
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TUCKER: That's because over the last two election cycle, incumbents have won reelection 98 in 99 percent of the time -- Lou.
DOBBS: Over the last two elections?
TUCKER: Yes.
DOBBS: Amazing. That sounds like it's hardly worthwhile.
TUCKER: Job security is what I think of.
DOBBS: Bill, thank you.
Kitty, let's look to the Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, his seat in South Dakota. Any clear indication which way that race is going to go?
PILGRIM: No, it's been very tight, and a lot of headlines, a lot of press about it, and he's the incumbent. So it's very much a lot of pressure. The Democrats have five states where they don't have an incumbent seat up, so it's a huge race for them.
DOBBS: OK. Kitty, thank you very much.
And those five seats with the Supreme Court saying think again -- where do we stand with those five redistricted seats in Texas?
TUCKER: They all go back up in play. The Supreme Court surprising everybody earlier this week, vacating an order which OKed the redistricting. So, after the election, you can expect challenges.
DOBBS: Challenges and maybe some changes. We'll see, but everybody gets to vote anyway.
Bill Tucker, thank you very much.
Kitty Pilgrim, thank you. Still ahead here, the new giant sucking sound. A new report finding American jobs are being shipped to cheap foreign labor markets in record numbers, just not to Mexico. We'll have a special report for you, and we will give you the origin of that new giant sucking sound.
Then, the controversy over the presidential candidates and their military service during the Vietnam War. We put that behind us. "Tour of Duty" Douglas Brinkley and Republican strategist Charlie Black are my guests.
We'll be talking about all of that and a great deal more still ahead here tonight. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, an alarming new report on the loss of American jobs to cheap foreign labor markets. It's reminiscent of Ross Perot's warning 12 years ago that NAFTA would create, as he put it elegantly, a giant sucking sound of American jobs moving to Mexico. However, tonight's new report shows the giant sucking sound is coming not just from Mexico, but from countries literally all around the globe.
Lisa Sylvester has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Multinational corporations don't like to advertise the fact that they're moving jobs overseas, but a new report commissioned by Congress on trade gives a snapshot of the growing trend.
The report documented in the first three months of this year more than 8,200 jobs lost to China, more than 23,000 jobs to Mexico and nearly 4,000 jobs to India. Total for the first quarter: 48,000 U.S. jobs exported to other countries.
Researchers estimate the total for the year could be as high as 400,000 jobs lost.
KATE BRONFENBRENNER, CORNELL UNIVERSITY: What's happening is the multinational corporations are moving production all around the world at an increasingly rapid pace, leaving workers and countries and communities spinning.
SYLVESTER: More jobs went to Mexico, but job loss to China is increasing exponentially, and the type of jobs moving to China has expanded. In 2001, the jobs were in electronics and household goods. Today, the list is a lot longer, including jobs in apparel, industrial equipment and machinery and metal fabrication. Nearly a third of the jobs sent to China were unionized high-paying jobs.
U.S. companies blame globalization.
ERIK AUTOR, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION: Retail companies have to be able to maximize their efficiency in order to provide the goods that their customers want at the price that they are willing to pay, and, if they can't do that or won't do that, then they're out of business.
SYLVESTER: But it's not just the job loss that is troubling to the U.S.-China Commission. It's also the transfer of research and development to an up-and-coming regional superpower.
RICHARD D'AMATO, U.S.-CHINA COMMISSION: Mexico has not got pretensions of being a world power and displacing the United States in the region and taking our technologies, building their own technologies out of it and effecting our security. That's what's happening in the transfer of resources to China that we're worried about.
SYLVESTER: What is also worrisome to the commission is that the federal government does not adequately track the number of jobs or the type of work going overseas. The commission is urging Congress to pass a bill that would require corporations report the jobs that they are exporting overseas -- Lou.
DOBBS: A very important recommendation, and we should also point out, Lisa, that this is the first time that there has been documentation of the number of jobs being outsourced to each of these countries, a remarkable result, despite the claims by too many that as few as 1 percent of the jobs that were lost were going to outsourcing. We thank you very much.
Lisa Sylvester reporting from Washington.
Still ahead here tonight, the bestselling book that many say caused the controversy over the presidential candidates' military service 30-some-odd years ago. Douglas Brinkley is the author of "Tour of Duty." He is my guest next. And also my guest tonight, Bush-Cheney adviser Charlie Black.
Then, Democracy at Risk. Many states still have not received the money they were promised to upgrade their voting machines and to improve the integrity of the national voting system. Kim Alexander of the California Voter Foundation is my guest as well tonight.
And then, insurance scandal, insurance fraud. Why New York's attorney general is expanding his investigation and others may soon sign on. Hundreds and millions of dollars involved.
Those stores and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Tonight, the controversial book revealing new details of Senator John Kerry's tour of duty in Vietnam. Just what we needed, you're thinking.
The author of "Tour of Duty: John Kerry and the Vietnam War" says he's been forced to defend Senator Kerry's record during the war. He says it's outrageous the men who wrote glowing reports about Senator Kerry some 30 years ago now criticizing Senator Kerry.
And the book, "Tour of Duty" just out in paperback, the bestseller, of course, that was published, I believe, Douglas Brinkley, in January. Is that correct?
DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, AUTHOR, "TOUR OF DUTY": That's correct.
DOBBS: It's good to have you here.
BRINKLEY: It's good to be here.
DOBBS: You have been caught in quite a -- I guess we could call a tempest without any problem. Were you surprised that you would be the -- at the epicenter of this controversy?
BRINKLEY: Sure. I knew when I started this book, I wanted to do a band of brothers like my late colleague Stephen Ambrose wrote on World War II, and Vietnam is not World War II. It's not a triumphantless war.
There's still a lot of moral ambiguity about it, and, in John Kerry, you get the combat action sequences in Vietnam, but the anti- war, and so I knew it was going to have some kind of impact.
But I, when I wrote it, didn't know Kerry was going to, A, get the nomination and B, make Vietnam a centerpiece of his campaign like he did at the Democratic Convention in Boston.
And then, I didn't realize the backlash against Kerry would be quite as hard as it was, although every time he's run for Senate, some groups come after him over his Vietnam service and anti-war activities.
DOBBS: It sounds like, Doug, that you should have complete faith in the unexpected and be prepared always to greet the law of unintended consequences. You've been accused of being a partisan in this contest.
The fact is a number of people in the swift boat ads -- if I can quote just one Coast Guard captain, Adrian Lonsdale, saying that he's -- his joining up, if you will, in the anti-Kerry part was that he didn't feel he had been given sufficient credit to -- and his comrades not given sufficient credit.
How do you react to that?
BRINKLEY: Well, I told the truth. I don't have a...
DOBBS: Sure.
BRINKLEY: I don't have a -- some sort of hunt in Vietnam. I was too young. I'm a historian. I've looked at it. I try to tell the truth. It's unfortunate that some commanding officers in my book like Roy Hoffman or Lonsdale did not come out particularly well because they did not perform well over there. They don't like to hear that.
They also don't like to think of the Vietnam War being a mistake. They feel that we won Vietnam, and so they're very defensive about it, and, as a historian, I can't deal with that. I simply try to tell the story of what took place in the Mekong Delta and let the chips fall where they may.
DOBBS: So you're not a partisan in this that...
BRINKLEY: Absolutely not. I've -- in fact, when my book came out, Lou, in January, you can go look back at almost all the conservative, pro-Bush periodicals were quoting my book left and right about John Kerry's anti-war activities, saying that I introduced Jane Fonda. All my stories was fodder for them. It was the summer when I had to defend John Kerry because he did earn his three Purple Hearts, he did earn his Silver Star and Bronze Star. Every document from action after reports to things prove that. So like John McCain said it's dishonorable to try to take away somebody's Purple Heart that they earned some 30 years later and I had to, as an American, step forward and call it straight.
DOBBS: And we should be clear, the president has been very careful never to challenge his service and in fact has gone out of his way to honor the service of Senator Kerry in Vietnam.
BRINKLEY: That's correct.
DOBBS: Do you think Senator Kerry, after all of this, would make a good president?
BRINKLEY: Yes. I think he'd made a first-rate president. That's not me making commentary on Bush. I say it because he's somebody as I have studied and wrote about him is someone who has a great love of America. He's been a patriot. His father was a hero in World War II and was a diplomat and Kerry's whole career has been one of serving his country. One may disagree with his views and you shouldn't vote for him if you do. But certainly I think he's a first- rate person, as is President Bush.
DOBBS: So you would be perfectly happy with either one of these men as commander-in-chief?
BRINKLEY: I have some preferences because certain issues mean more to me but when you wear the historian's cap as I did on this you have to understand, I am writing 30-some years ago. I think that Kerry's behavior in his 20s were admirable both in Vietnam and when he got home. Did he make some mistakes, yes. I also don't think Bush's National Guard service shouldn't be made such a big deal of. I think he got an honorable discharge. It's been people making too much of it.
DOBBS: So as a historian, you're comfortable with the people's will in either case supporting these men?
BRINKLEY: Sure. People are going to vote whoever they want to and I hope they are not voting over what they did when they were in their 20s but what they will do for our country now. We've got a war in Iraq, we've got health care crisis...
DOBBS: With over 100 million people, one thing you can be sure, Doug, as a historian, you know this very well, a lot of folks, a lot of Americans will be taking that opportunity, that privilege to vote in voting for a lot of different reasons.
BRINKLEY: Absolutely.
DOBBS: Doug Brinkley, it's great to have you here. Thanks, Lou. Good luck with the paperback edition.
BRINKLEY: Thank you.
DOBBS: In just a moment, I'll be talking with veteran Republican strategist and adviser to the Bush/Cheney campaign, Charlie Black, but first, let's take a look now at some of your thoughts.
Leon Tisdale in Upland, California. "I'm sick and tired of hearing that illegal aliens are taking jobs that Americans don't want. The fact is Americans would be willing to do those jobs if they paid a decent wage. If the laws of our country were enforced, businesses were fined and violators jailed for hiring illegal aliens then Americans would take most if not all of the jobs now held by illegal aliens."
Katherine Frank in Madisonville, Tennessee, "Lou, hope you enjoy this recipe for middle class "let them eat cake." Take one part NAFTA loopholes, an equal part corporate greed, add a pinch of no-bid contractors and a dash of lobbyists. Outsource half the mix and the remaining melting pot whip in illegal immigrants. Stay on message till smooth. Remove lumps of civil liberties, fold in tax breaks keeping some aside for garnish. Grease well on all sides with campaign contributions."
We love hearing from you, including your poetry and your recipes. And send them along to us at loudobbs@CNN.com. Send us your name and address. Each of you whose e-mail is read on the broadcast receives a free copy of my new book, "Exporting America."
My next guest says President Bush's campaign for the next two week will focus on the war on terror and the war against radical Islamist terrorists. Charlie Black says Senator Kerry just cannot defeat the president on those issues. Charlie Black is a veteran Republican strategist, adviser to the Bush/Cheney campaign, joining me tonight from Washington, D.C. Good to have you with us.
Why is the president going to focus at this point on the war on terror, the war on radical Islamist terror, and the war in Iraq, Charlie?
CHARLIE BLACK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, the president believes that the war on terror is the most important issue facing the country, the biggest challenge for the next president. The president of course thinks that the war in Iraq is a part of the war on terror, and so, he's going to emphasize that that's the top priority for the country and that he has successfully led that war on terror so far. DOBBS: We've just received the Reuters Zogby poll showing a dead heat. The "Washington Post" tracking poll today showing -- the 5:00 Eastern Time poll showing that the president had opened up a five- point lead in that poll. Are you getting comfortable, or do you think that this race going to be -- is it capable of reversing itself several times over the next now less than two weeks?
BLACK: Well, it's going to be close. We've known for a couple of years that this would be a close race because the two parties are so evenly divided. If you look at all of the national polls since the last debate, the president would have a small lead, three or four points. I'd be happy to go ahead and vote today. But, no, we're not going to get comfortable and the president's going to campaign tirelessly right till the end.
DOBBS: At this juncture in the campaign, we have heard so little from both of these candidates, not just your candidate, but both of these candidates on immigration. It is on every poll, every survey, one of the most critically important issues. Why isn't your candidate and in your judgment why Senator Kerry are resisting so much the issue of immigration, and what to do about illegal immigration in this country?
BLACK: Well, you know, part of the reason might be that I don't think the voters perceive that much difference in their positions. There is a big difference. The president has a balanced program which would allow workers to come in to take jobs that Americans could not fill. Kerry, on the other hand, in the past has been for amnesty for illegal aliens, but you know, if you look at -- in most of the states, what are the top three, four, five issues. Illegal immigration is not among it in most of those states.
DOBBS: Well, it certainly is in the polling that we are seeing, Charlie, and certainly across the border states without question. And is likely to become more so. The issues that you think that the president will be focusing on over the course, where in your judgment, at what point do you think we're going to have a pretty clear sense of who's going to be elected president?
BLACK: Well, I think we're probably not going to know until late on election night or the next morning. We think it will be close. And I think the president does have a small advantage in the race. Another advantage he has is that there are only 10 or 11 swing states really left in play and about two-thirds of those are states that Al Gore carried. States that Kerry needs. So the playing field's expanding to the president's advantage. I think he will win. But it could be a two, three-point win in a lot of those states and we may have to stay up late on election night.
DOBBS: But you don't think it will be a repeat of 2000?
BLACK: Well, the law of averages is against that. I think if somebody wins even by two percentage points nationally, it is likely to tip enough states by a good enough margin that you cannot challenge it in court. DOBBS: Charles, I will spare you, asking you, which candidate do you think will win in that late election result evening. Charlie Black, we thank you for being here.
BLACK: My pleasure, Lou, thank you.
DOBBS: A reminder now to vote in our poll tonight. "Would you support Arizona's Proposition 200 or a similar ballot initiative in your state? Yes or no. Please cast your vote at CNN.com/lou. We'll have the results coming right up.
Still ahead, democracy at risk, why one state is moving away from paperless touch-screen voting. Kim Alexander is the founder/president of the California Voter Foundation. She is joining me to talk about many of the threats to the integrity of our voting system this year.
And President Bush and Senator Kerry pushing their platforms in critical battleground states. I'll be talking with three of the country's top political journalists.
And Spitzer sell-off. Why the New York attorney general's investigation has widened and sparked a sell-off on insurance stocks on Wall Street. We'll have the full report. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The presidential election four years ago prompted Congress to set aside $3 billion to help the states upgrade their voting machines. Yet now four years later, many states haven't seen any of the money and nor have they done much to improve their election system. The election assistance commission, which the government created to allocate that money, says it's distributed more than $2 billion but most of the money remains in the bank and will stay there until states present plans on how they will spend it. Critics fault the EAC, which held its first meeting only this year.
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DOUG CHAPLIN, ELECTIONONLINE.ORG: The commission hasn't been well-funded. Was started late, and probably is too late to the game in 2004 to have much of an impact on the 2004 presidential election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: My guest tonight says the federal government needs to do more to oversee voting reform across the country.
Kim Alexander is founder/president of the California Voter Foundation, joining us tonight from Sacramento, California.
Good to have you here, Kim.
KIM ALEXANDER, PRES. CALIFORNIA VOTER FOUNDATION: Hi, Lou. Thanks for having me.
DOBBS: The problems that we are already reporting here, lawsuits that have already been filed in a number of states, is there more to come in your best judgment?
ALEXANDER: I think there will be. We're really just at the beginning of resolving our voting technology problems. I mean, basically nobody paid much attention to voting technology until Florida 2000. At that point, lots of people started looking under the rock and discovering that these systems are not well regulated and their's not sufficient oversight and we really need the federal government to come back and do a better job of reforming our voter systems.
DOBBS: Well, candidly even with the 2000 election, Kim, I didn't perceive significant problems, thought that we were moving ahead with reform. I was, and I am just confessing my own acquiescence here, to a system that was in place. It looks shaky as the dickens right now.
ALEXANDER: Big problem, Lou, is that a lot of counties rushed out and bought paperless electronic voting systems without talking to computer scientists or very many people about it, and they've gone out and bought these systems that produce results that are publicly unverifiable, that because there is no paper audit trail of the ballot that's produce when the voter votes, that the voter can inspect and make sure their vote was recorded properly. And just as importantly that election officials can use once all of the votes come together, and the votes over at end of the voting day. To check and make sure it is right.
DOBBS: If we had -- it is pretty clear from the polls right now not that there's not going to be a tight race in California, but if we were to get a surprise, a surprise -- Charlie Black, you just heard him representing the Bush/Cheney campaign, thinks it;s going to be a lighter margin than 2000, but if the unthinkable were to occur, how reliable would a recount be in most states in your best assessment?
ALEXANDER: Depends where you are talking about. The battleground states where E-voting is being used pretty widely are states like Florida and New Mexico and Colorado. It's just a few counties in Colorado, but it's the populist ones. So, it depends if it's close. If we try to do a recount on these machine, we can't go back and discover what the voter's intent was because there isn't this paper record. Because if the machine's recorded the votes improperly in the first place or if the ballots are lost or altered while they're in transit, we cannot go back and fix.
DOBBS: Well, I'm going to do some old-fashioned, I'm going to start crossing my fingers, Kim. Thanks a lot, Kim.
ALEXANDER: You can also vote a paper ballot.
DOBBS: You got it. I'm going to also do that. Good counsel. Kim Alexander, thank you for being here.
ALEXANDER: Thank you.
DOBBS: "Tonight's Thought" is on voting. "Those who stay away from the election think that one vote will do no good. 'Tis but one step more to think that one vote will do no harm." Those the words of Ralph Waldo Emerson.
Stocks today lower on Wall Street. The Dow down nearly 59 points, the Nasdaq up nearly 14, the S&P 500 down almost 11.
The investigation into big rigging in the insurance industry widening.
Christine Romans is here with the story -- Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the subpoenas are flying. It looks as if no U.S. insurance company or HMO will be spared. New York attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation into hundreds of millions of dollars of bid rigging apparently not limited to property and casualty insurers in brokers, but life insurance and medical care. The A.G. wants to know whether inside deals among insurances brokers and providers, ultimately hurt consumers and said this probe is just beginning.
Now trouble for the insurance companies started last weekend when Spitzer accused Marsh & McLennan of rigging insurance bids and directing its clients to the insurers that paid Marsh the richest fees. Union Provident, today says it has received subpoenas from New York, about how it "bids." That stock fell 10 percent. So did shares of Aon, the reinsurance giant. Aetna fared worse. And Lou, Marsh & McLennan has lost almost half its value in just four day. Whatever happens there is the expectation there that there will be more transparency into the way these insurance companies do business and that's good for investors. Good for consumers, rather, not investors.
DOBBS: And that raises the question of how good transparency is for the insurance industry which suggests we need more transparency. Christine, thank you.
When we continue our political panel and letters to America. How one liberal foreign newspaper is trying to influence your vote. We'll have that remarkable story next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Outrage tonight after one of Britain's most liberal newspapers, encourages its readers to intervene in our election. The "Guardian" newspaper told its readers to write pro-Kerry letters to undecided voters in the state of Ohio, of course a critical battleground state. And as you might expect, the citizens of Ohio have not taken this blatant attempted interference very well. One angry voter sent an e-mail to the "Guardian" bluntly telling the newspaper's readers to mind their own business! Colorful language excepted from our communication here this evening.
Joining me now, well, three of the top political journalists in the country. From Washington, Roger Simon, "U.S. News and World Report," Karen Tumulty, "Time" magazine. And right here in New York, Mark Warren from "Esquire" magazine. Good to have you all here.
Karen, let's begin. What kind of outrage is this that "The Guardian" would dare to suggest a -- an intervention? Roger, how about you?
All right, you know what? How about you? We go this way. I don't know what is going on out there.
MARK WARREN, "ESQUIRE" MAGAZINE: People in my home town of Highlands, Texas love to get the advice from "The Guardian." I think they get all their political advice and voting guidance from foreign papers.
DOBBS: What's your home town again?
WARREN: Highlands, Texas.
DOBBS: Highlands, Texas. Well, as a Texan myself, I can imagine just how thrilled they would be.
WARREN: I would not try to take advantage of this if I were Senator Kerry. Probably not something to pay much attention to.
DOBBS: And the fact is, then you have Mahathir, formerly the head of Kuala-Lumpur, suggesting to Muslims that they vote for Senator Kerry. You have Vladimir Putin telling people that he would be more comfortable with President Bush.
I don't recall a time in which we've had this kind of international both interest and, one could argue, an intervention in our elections.
WARREN: Oh, absolutely. I think that President Putin's intervention yesterday was particularly striking, given that it's peculiar, given he was advising President Bush to stay out of his affairs not three weeks ago. So I don't know that President Bush is going to be appreciating his endorsement.
DOBBS: Or perhaps President Bush would be grateful. We don't know.
Let me turn to you, Karen, just ask you, talking with Charlie Black, he thinks that this race is coming down to a narrow margin but nothing like 2000. What's your take?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, I think -- I think Charlie, as I was listening to that interview, was being a little bit optimistic here. Here's one statistic, Lou, to remember. Today, Michael Hooley (ph), who is a top Kerry strategist over at the Democratic National Committee, said that the party will be hiring so far 10,000 lawyers to be working on election day, and he said the number is growing every day.
So, unless this is a fairly substantial margin of a race, I think that Charlie's prediction that we're going to be up until the late hours on election night is actually pretty optimistic. It could go long after that.
DOBBS: You agree, Roger? ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": It certainly could. But I have a feeling if there is a clear popular vote winner and a clear Electoral College winner, and that person is the same person, the courts will stay out of it. The courts will stay out of it, as they have for a long, long time before 2000. The courts traditionally are very reluctant to overturn the will of the people, and if the will of the people is clear, I don't think the courts are going to intervene.
That won't prevent lawsuits, however. Karen's right about that.
DOBBS: It's -- it's a fine mess we find ourselves in, I think, the suggestion that we couldn't expect a certain amount of graciousness on the part of both political parties and both candidates. But of course, it would also be disingenuous to suggest that we will.
Let me ask you, and Roger, let me ask you first. Put up -- may I ask you to put up the job approval rating for President Bush right now, to just sort of show where we are in these polls. "The Washington Post" today showing approval rating for George Bush at 54 percent, "The New York Times" at 44 percent. Now, we're all used to the vagaries of these polls, but 10 percent difference? I mean, aren't we beginning -- these polls to strain our credulity, Karen?
TUMULTY: Well, I think -- and the difference between 54 percent and 44 percent -- 54 percent is a fairly healthy number. That's basically cruising to re-election. Forty-four percent is on life support. So these numbers, it is a gap that is the difference -- it's a literally a life-and-death gap difference for the president. So, I am with you. I don't know what to make of these disparities.
DOBBS: Do you have any thoughts?
WARREN: Splitting the difference, John Zogby, his reelect number for the president is 47 today. He's the hot hand for the last decade. The reelect number as Karen says, is the number, 44 is catastrophic at this point. Yet most polls somehow show a trend slightly for President Bush. I think we might just have to begin to ignore these numbers for the next two weeks.
DOBBS: Do you think that's a good idea, Roger, that we just begin to ignore these numbers?
SIMON: I think it's an excellent idea. I think it strained much more than credulity. And it's not just a matter of two polls disagreeing. They might have different survey methods and whatever, but it's when polls do wild swings, as we saw from a Gallup four years ago. And have seen this year, too, from a number of polls. When you get seven, eight, nine-point swings in a matter of days. And you know, just from living in America, that the electorate is really not changing its mind that dramatically. You wonder what's going on here? And I think what's going on here is smoke and mirrors and not science.
DOBBS: And not science, and -- but you will destroy a lot of fun for a lot of people if you insist on this monastic approach to polling. We are going to have to evaluate here whether we are going to include them or not.
You also heard Charlie Black say that the president is going to focus on Iraq and the war on terror in these next two weeks. Those were supposed to be the two principle vulnerabilities according to the Kerry campaign, and here is the president driving on those two issues. What do you make of it, Karen?
TUMULTY: Well, the Kerry campaign is still convinced that those are President Bush's vulnerabilities, and they are saying that they, too, will be focusing on Iraq at every conceivable opportunity over the next two weeks.
DOBBS: And, Roger, the idea that Senator Kerry has said the president is going to cut Social Security benefits, is going to institute the draft. We're going into new unchartered territory here, aren't we?
SIMON: No. It's called scare tactics. We hear a lot of it from Republicans; now we're beginning to hear the same things from Democrats. I don't think John Kerry really believes we are going to have a draft in the next four years, that Congress would pass it, and I don't think he thinks we're going to get a real privatization of Social Security either.
DOBBS: And Mark, tomorrow evening, we will get your views on Vice President Cheney's suggesting that dirty bombs might be transported easier in the United States should Senator Kerry be elected. Mark Warren and Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, as always, thanks.
Still ahead, the result of our poll tonight. And the results are extraordinarily exciting tonight. And a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The results of our poll tonight. Eighty-three percent of you would support Arizona's Proposition 200, or a similar ballot initiative in your own state.
Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us tomorrow, as we continue our reports on democracy at risk. Why some American activist groups want international monitors, or a higher number of them, to watch our election. Please join us for that story and a great deal more tomorrow. For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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Aired October 19, 2004 - 18:00 ET
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LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, President Bush and Senator Kerry are neck and neck in the latest opinion poll. The intensity of their attacks escalated today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My fellow Americans, on November 2, Social Security is on the ballot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My opponent will say anything he thinks will benefit him politically at the time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Republicans and Democrats fighting to control the Senate and the House. Tonight, we'll have a special report on the races that will determine the outcome.
Senator Kerry's service in Vietnam has been a central issue in this campaign. Tonight, my guest is historian Douglas Brinkley, author of "Tour of Duty." I'll also be talking with Republican strategist Charlie Black.
And border states facing nothing less than an invasion of illegal aliens, but some business leaders in Arizona are fighting to stop a ballot initiative that would make the state less attractive to illegal aliens.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JULIE PACE, ARIZONA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: We are trying to do what we can with the grassroots and the business community support.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Tonight, we'll have a special report.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Tuesday, October 19. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening. Tonight, a new opinion poll says President Bush and Senator Kerry are now in a dead heat. The Reuters/Zogby poll says both candidates are now supported by 45 percent of likely voters.
Today, Senator Kerry again suggested President Bush has a secret plan to privatize Social Security. President Bush rejects the charge, and the president said Senator Kerry is using what he called old-style scare tactics on Social Security and other issues.
Dana Bash is covering the president's campaign and reports from Newport Richey, Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just minutes into his first Florida rally of the day, the president tried to stop a Kerry attack line for sticking that new policies are responsible for the flu shot shortage.
BUSH: I want to ensure them that our government is doing everything possible to help older Americans and children get their shots, despite the major manufacturing defect that caused this problem.
BASH: The problem effects crucial voting blocks like seniors. He promised more vaccine is coming.
For much of the campaign, the Bush team tried to stay on their message by letting others, not the president, respond to John Kerry. No more.
BUSH: My opponent will say anything he thinks that will benefit him politically at the time.
BASH: Senator Kerry's been slamming the president for reportedly saying he wants to privatize Social Security, a red flag for elderly voters.
President Bush in St. Petersburg:
BUSH: We will keep the promise of Social Security for all our seniors.
BASH: Senator Kerry's been stoking the idea Mr. Bush plans to reinstate the draft.
The president later in Newport Richey:
BUSH: We will not have a draft. We will have an all-volunteer army.
BASH: And the day after the Kerry campaign accused Mr. Bush of using scare tactics in talking terrorism, the president's kicker:
BUSH: On November 2, the people of America will reject the politics of fear. BASH: The stepped-up defense, perhaps from fear Kerry's lines here are working. For sure proof, the president can't leave anything to chance with these 27 electoral votes.
(on camera): Three full days of campaigning in a week shows the state is just as important now as it was to the president four years ago. Some Republicans worry all of the president's attention here comes at the expense of other battleground states like Ohio. Bush aides insist they can and will do it all.
Dana Bash, CNN, The Villages, Florida.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Senator Kerry today left Florida to campaign in Pennsylvania and other key states that could determine the outcome of this election. Senator Kerry intensified his attacks today on President Bush. The senator criticized the president's policies on the economy, health care and national security.
Frank Buckley reports from Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator John Kerry invoked the name of Franklin Roosevelt in his visit to Pennsylvania, 72 years to the day, he said, after FDR visited the Keystone State. Kerry saying President Bush was the first president since the one Roosevelt replaced to lose jobs on his watch.
KERRY: And as Roosevelt said back then, President Hoover's policies had jeopardized "the welfare of our people and the credit of our country." And so has George W. Bush's.
BUCKLEY: The Bush campaign points to other indicators that they say show the economy is growing. Still, Kerry criticized President Bush's economic policies and claimed Bush has plans to privatize Social Security.
KERRY: On November 2, Social Security is on the ballot -- a choice between one candidate who will save Social Security and another who will undermine it.
BUCKLEY: But as Kerry pressed the case against President Bush on domestic issues, he also responded to sharp attacks from President Bush on his national security credentials.
KERRY: I believe that we need a president who defends America and fights for the middle class at the same time.
BUCKLEY (on camera): A senior Kerry strategist described this as a very critical period during which the Kerry campaign intended to very aggressively respond to President Bush's criticisms. As this adviser put it, if we can answer it or at least neutralize it, we'll be in a very strong position in the closing days of this campaign.
Frank Buckley, CNN, Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: As we have reported extensively here, the presidential candidates, both of them, have failed to address an issue of great concern to millions of Americans, the massive influx of illegal aliens into this country, as many as three million this year alone, and the many consequences of the invasion. The border crisis, however, has become a key issue in a number of congressional campaigns across the country.
Peter Viles has that report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's the issue Washington and the major parties won't touch: the border crisis. A key issue, however, in a handful of congressional races.
In Southern California, Democrat Cynthia Matthews trying to knock off powerful Republican David Dreier, saying Dreier hasn't done enough to fight illegal immigration.
CYNTHIA MATTHEWS (D), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: What part of illegal do people not understand? They're not here legally. They're competing with our job market, and, when they do make the money, the money leaves our district, leaves our state, leaves our country.
VILES: No media outlet has polled Dreier's district, and Republicans believe his seat is safe.
Another incumbent under attack in California: Democrat Joe Baca who prevailed on Homeland Security to stop rounding up illegal aliens.
ED LANING (R), CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: He's advocating for illegal immigrants rather than advocating for the citizens of his district. We have hospitals closing. Our social infrastructure is stressed to almost the breaking point.
VILES: Again, no media polling in that district. Democrats believe Baca is safe.
A third California incumbent under attack on immigration: Democrat Loretta Sanchez facing Republican Tim Escobar who gives her an F minus on border security issues.
The tightest race where immigration is at issue: Oklahoma Senate, an open seat, polls neck and neck there between Republican Tom Coburn and Democrat Brad Carson. A major difference: Coburn has supported using the military to patrol the border.
In Kansas, Republican challenger Kris Kobach also pushing for troops on the border in his race to unseat Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore. No media polling there yet. Republicans believe Kobach has a shot. In Utah, a rematch of a very tight race two years ago, Republican challenger John Swallow stressing border protection against incumbent Jim Matheson. But a recent "Deseret Morning News" poll shows Matheson with a commanding lead.
Peter Viles, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Our nation's border crisis is also the focus of a controversial ballot measure in the state where most illegal aliens are now entering this country, Arizona. Proposition 200 would stop illegal aliens from receiving many of the benefits of citizenship in that state. Yet many Arizona businesses are fighting aggressively to defeat it.
Casey Wian has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The ballot initiative known as Protect Arizona Now seemed a sure political bet last month. Proposition 200 would deny state services to illegal aliens, require state employees to report illegal aliens who try to apply for public benefits and require voters to prove citizenship.
Two-thirds of Arizona voters supported Proposition 200 in September. Since then, support has narrowed sharply. A new poll shows just 42 percent of likely voters in favor, with 29 percent opposed. It's an uncomfortable margin considering that another 29 percent of voters are undecided, more than enough to change the outcome.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When lives are at stake, I don't have the time to check I.D.s.
WIAN: Voters have been influenced by an 11th-hour media and Internet blitz by Proposition 200 opponents.
KATHY MCKEE, CHAIRMAN, PROTECT ARIZONA NOW: Every hour on the hour, you see the police and the firemen on there with the -- their scare tactics that are so not true that they're going to be effected because they're not going to be remotely effected. All of the political leaders are really kicking up their opposition. The churches, oh, my goodness, are turning this into a religious issue.
WIAN: Arizona's Chamber of Commerce is a main force behind the opposition.
PACE: We are trying to do what we can with the grassroots and the business community support late in the game to try to get the word out before it's passed and because we cause our state a lot of aggravation.
WIAN: Supporters say Proposition 200 is simply an effort to remove the lure of free social services for illegal aliens and to combat voter fraud. Opponents are trying to compare it to California's Proposition 187 which passed 10 years ago but was blocked by court challenges.
(on camera): 187 is still blamed for turning conservative Latinos in California against Republicans. Many believe the same thing could happen in Arizona if Proposition 200 passes there.
Casey Wian, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. The question: Would you support Arizona's Proposition 200 or a similar ballot initiative in your state? Yes or no. Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results here later.
Coming right up, the battle for Congress. A small number of states could determine which party controls the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NATHAN GONZALES, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Overall, we're looking at eight competitive races, all of which are pretty much toss- ups right now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Tonight, we will have a special report on the swing state races in both the House and the Senate.
Senator Kerry's service in Vietnam, a central issue in the campaign. Historian Douglas Brinkley, author of "Tour of Duty," is my guest tonight.
And the giant sucking sound of American jobs being shipped overseas, originating not now in Mexico, but other countries with cheap labor markets.
That story, a great deal more still ahead here.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Voters will decide elections for one-third of the seats in the U.S. Senate and all 435 seats in the House. Republicans control, of course, both the Senate and the House, and voters in 34 of our 50 states will elect senators next month. In 15 states, the incumbent is a Republican senator; the incumbent in the other 19, Democrat.
Kitty Pilgrim now reports on the fight to control the Senate, Bill Tucker is covering the battle for the House, and, tonight, we begin with Kitty -- Kitty.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Lou, it isn't just the presidential race that's the squeaker here. Now the Senate is also in play with closely contested races in several states.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM (voice-over): It isn't just the presidential race that is tight. A handful of states may decide majority in the Senate.
GONZALES: Control of the Senate is definitely in play. It's definitely up for grabs. In general, control is critical to either party. Overall, we're looking at eight competitive races, all of which are pretty much toss-ups right now.
PILGRIM: Right now, Republicans have a narrow majority of 51 to 48 and one independent, but, with two weeks to go, some races are too close to call.
But many political watchers say the Democrats face the tougher fight. Democrats have four southern states that are deeply in contest that they hold, plus South Dakota. The Republicans have to defend Alaska, Colorado and Oklahoma.
NORMAN ORNSTEIN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: Democrats have more seats, more to defend this time, and, at the same time, a number of Democratic seats are open, no one incumbents running. Because you've got open seats and there are five of them in the South in states carried by Bush four years ago, Democrats could fall further into a hole in terms of recapturing a majority.
PILGRIM: Of those, South Dakota's race between Tom Daschle and John Thune is a headliner. Two of the states, Florida and Colorado, are important because they are major presidential battleground states. And Louisiana opposes a special problem because if no candidate gets over 50 percent, there has to be a December runoff.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Now political scientists say the implication of who controls the Senate extends beyond how policy is to be voted on on the Senate floor. It also effects the future composition of the Supreme Court. That's because the Senate holds the confirmation hearings on the Supreme Court nominees -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much.
The battle for control over the House will probably be decided by voters in only three dozen congressional districts. Bill Tucker has that story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL TUCKER, CNN FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Every seat, all 435 of them, are up for reelection, and, with the Republicans currently holding a slim advantage over Democrats, things could get interesting.
There are 34 open seats up for grabs, meaning seats where the sitting incumbent is not running for reelection. Those are the most interesting because in those seats lie a possible shift in the balance of power.
If the Democrats can gain control of 13 seats, the House will belong to them. Not likely to happen, though.
AMY WALTER, EDITOR, "COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Right now, we're not looking at a possibility of a Democratic takeover of Congress. Republicans are poised right now to hold on to the majority. The question now is what majority looks like. Is it a little bit bigger than what it is right now, or is it a little bit smaller?
TUCKER: Texas is the only place with several incumbents in trouble, and there House Majority Leader Tom DeLay stacked the decks, successfully redrawing districts to give the advantage to five Republican challengers. But, otherwise, if this were a race of all incumbents, it would hardly would be worth nothing.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: That's because over the last two election cycle, incumbents have won reelection 98 in 99 percent of the time -- Lou.
DOBBS: Over the last two elections?
TUCKER: Yes.
DOBBS: Amazing. That sounds like it's hardly worthwhile.
TUCKER: Job security is what I think of.
DOBBS: Bill, thank you.
Kitty, let's look to the Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, his seat in South Dakota. Any clear indication which way that race is going to go?
PILGRIM: No, it's been very tight, and a lot of headlines, a lot of press about it, and he's the incumbent. So it's very much a lot of pressure. The Democrats have five states where they don't have an incumbent seat up, so it's a huge race for them.
DOBBS: OK. Kitty, thank you very much.
And those five seats with the Supreme Court saying think again -- where do we stand with those five redistricted seats in Texas?
TUCKER: They all go back up in play. The Supreme Court surprising everybody earlier this week, vacating an order which OKed the redistricting. So, after the election, you can expect challenges.
DOBBS: Challenges and maybe some changes. We'll see, but everybody gets to vote anyway.
Bill Tucker, thank you very much.
Kitty Pilgrim, thank you. Still ahead here, the new giant sucking sound. A new report finding American jobs are being shipped to cheap foreign labor markets in record numbers, just not to Mexico. We'll have a special report for you, and we will give you the origin of that new giant sucking sound.
Then, the controversy over the presidential candidates and their military service during the Vietnam War. We put that behind us. "Tour of Duty" Douglas Brinkley and Republican strategist Charlie Black are my guests.
We'll be talking about all of that and a great deal more still ahead here tonight. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, an alarming new report on the loss of American jobs to cheap foreign labor markets. It's reminiscent of Ross Perot's warning 12 years ago that NAFTA would create, as he put it elegantly, a giant sucking sound of American jobs moving to Mexico. However, tonight's new report shows the giant sucking sound is coming not just from Mexico, but from countries literally all around the globe.
Lisa Sylvester has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Multinational corporations don't like to advertise the fact that they're moving jobs overseas, but a new report commissioned by Congress on trade gives a snapshot of the growing trend.
The report documented in the first three months of this year more than 8,200 jobs lost to China, more than 23,000 jobs to Mexico and nearly 4,000 jobs to India. Total for the first quarter: 48,000 U.S. jobs exported to other countries.
Researchers estimate the total for the year could be as high as 400,000 jobs lost.
KATE BRONFENBRENNER, CORNELL UNIVERSITY: What's happening is the multinational corporations are moving production all around the world at an increasingly rapid pace, leaving workers and countries and communities spinning.
SYLVESTER: More jobs went to Mexico, but job loss to China is increasing exponentially, and the type of jobs moving to China has expanded. In 2001, the jobs were in electronics and household goods. Today, the list is a lot longer, including jobs in apparel, industrial equipment and machinery and metal fabrication. Nearly a third of the jobs sent to China were unionized high-paying jobs.
U.S. companies blame globalization.
ERIK AUTOR, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION: Retail companies have to be able to maximize their efficiency in order to provide the goods that their customers want at the price that they are willing to pay, and, if they can't do that or won't do that, then they're out of business.
SYLVESTER: But it's not just the job loss that is troubling to the U.S.-China Commission. It's also the transfer of research and development to an up-and-coming regional superpower.
RICHARD D'AMATO, U.S.-CHINA COMMISSION: Mexico has not got pretensions of being a world power and displacing the United States in the region and taking our technologies, building their own technologies out of it and effecting our security. That's what's happening in the transfer of resources to China that we're worried about.
SYLVESTER: What is also worrisome to the commission is that the federal government does not adequately track the number of jobs or the type of work going overseas. The commission is urging Congress to pass a bill that would require corporations report the jobs that they are exporting overseas -- Lou.
DOBBS: A very important recommendation, and we should also point out, Lisa, that this is the first time that there has been documentation of the number of jobs being outsourced to each of these countries, a remarkable result, despite the claims by too many that as few as 1 percent of the jobs that were lost were going to outsourcing. We thank you very much.
Lisa Sylvester reporting from Washington.
Still ahead here tonight, the bestselling book that many say caused the controversy over the presidential candidates' military service 30-some-odd years ago. Douglas Brinkley is the author of "Tour of Duty." He is my guest next. And also my guest tonight, Bush-Cheney adviser Charlie Black.
Then, Democracy at Risk. Many states still have not received the money they were promised to upgrade their voting machines and to improve the integrity of the national voting system. Kim Alexander of the California Voter Foundation is my guest as well tonight.
And then, insurance scandal, insurance fraud. Why New York's attorney general is expanding his investigation and others may soon sign on. Hundreds and millions of dollars involved.
Those stores and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Tonight, the controversial book revealing new details of Senator John Kerry's tour of duty in Vietnam. Just what we needed, you're thinking.
The author of "Tour of Duty: John Kerry and the Vietnam War" says he's been forced to defend Senator Kerry's record during the war. He says it's outrageous the men who wrote glowing reports about Senator Kerry some 30 years ago now criticizing Senator Kerry.
And the book, "Tour of Duty" just out in paperback, the bestseller, of course, that was published, I believe, Douglas Brinkley, in January. Is that correct?
DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, AUTHOR, "TOUR OF DUTY": That's correct.
DOBBS: It's good to have you here.
BRINKLEY: It's good to be here.
DOBBS: You have been caught in quite a -- I guess we could call a tempest without any problem. Were you surprised that you would be the -- at the epicenter of this controversy?
BRINKLEY: Sure. I knew when I started this book, I wanted to do a band of brothers like my late colleague Stephen Ambrose wrote on World War II, and Vietnam is not World War II. It's not a triumphantless war.
There's still a lot of moral ambiguity about it, and, in John Kerry, you get the combat action sequences in Vietnam, but the anti- war, and so I knew it was going to have some kind of impact.
But I, when I wrote it, didn't know Kerry was going to, A, get the nomination and B, make Vietnam a centerpiece of his campaign like he did at the Democratic Convention in Boston.
And then, I didn't realize the backlash against Kerry would be quite as hard as it was, although every time he's run for Senate, some groups come after him over his Vietnam service and anti-war activities.
DOBBS: It sounds like, Doug, that you should have complete faith in the unexpected and be prepared always to greet the law of unintended consequences. You've been accused of being a partisan in this contest.
The fact is a number of people in the swift boat ads -- if I can quote just one Coast Guard captain, Adrian Lonsdale, saying that he's -- his joining up, if you will, in the anti-Kerry part was that he didn't feel he had been given sufficient credit to -- and his comrades not given sufficient credit.
How do you react to that?
BRINKLEY: Well, I told the truth. I don't have a...
DOBBS: Sure.
BRINKLEY: I don't have a -- some sort of hunt in Vietnam. I was too young. I'm a historian. I've looked at it. I try to tell the truth. It's unfortunate that some commanding officers in my book like Roy Hoffman or Lonsdale did not come out particularly well because they did not perform well over there. They don't like to hear that.
They also don't like to think of the Vietnam War being a mistake. They feel that we won Vietnam, and so they're very defensive about it, and, as a historian, I can't deal with that. I simply try to tell the story of what took place in the Mekong Delta and let the chips fall where they may.
DOBBS: So you're not a partisan in this that...
BRINKLEY: Absolutely not. I've -- in fact, when my book came out, Lou, in January, you can go look back at almost all the conservative, pro-Bush periodicals were quoting my book left and right about John Kerry's anti-war activities, saying that I introduced Jane Fonda. All my stories was fodder for them. It was the summer when I had to defend John Kerry because he did earn his three Purple Hearts, he did earn his Silver Star and Bronze Star. Every document from action after reports to things prove that. So like John McCain said it's dishonorable to try to take away somebody's Purple Heart that they earned some 30 years later and I had to, as an American, step forward and call it straight.
DOBBS: And we should be clear, the president has been very careful never to challenge his service and in fact has gone out of his way to honor the service of Senator Kerry in Vietnam.
BRINKLEY: That's correct.
DOBBS: Do you think Senator Kerry, after all of this, would make a good president?
BRINKLEY: Yes. I think he'd made a first-rate president. That's not me making commentary on Bush. I say it because he's somebody as I have studied and wrote about him is someone who has a great love of America. He's been a patriot. His father was a hero in World War II and was a diplomat and Kerry's whole career has been one of serving his country. One may disagree with his views and you shouldn't vote for him if you do. But certainly I think he's a first- rate person, as is President Bush.
DOBBS: So you would be perfectly happy with either one of these men as commander-in-chief?
BRINKLEY: I have some preferences because certain issues mean more to me but when you wear the historian's cap as I did on this you have to understand, I am writing 30-some years ago. I think that Kerry's behavior in his 20s were admirable both in Vietnam and when he got home. Did he make some mistakes, yes. I also don't think Bush's National Guard service shouldn't be made such a big deal of. I think he got an honorable discharge. It's been people making too much of it.
DOBBS: So as a historian, you're comfortable with the people's will in either case supporting these men?
BRINKLEY: Sure. People are going to vote whoever they want to and I hope they are not voting over what they did when they were in their 20s but what they will do for our country now. We've got a war in Iraq, we've got health care crisis...
DOBBS: With over 100 million people, one thing you can be sure, Doug, as a historian, you know this very well, a lot of folks, a lot of Americans will be taking that opportunity, that privilege to vote in voting for a lot of different reasons.
BRINKLEY: Absolutely.
DOBBS: Doug Brinkley, it's great to have you here. Thanks, Lou. Good luck with the paperback edition.
BRINKLEY: Thank you.
DOBBS: In just a moment, I'll be talking with veteran Republican strategist and adviser to the Bush/Cheney campaign, Charlie Black, but first, let's take a look now at some of your thoughts.
Leon Tisdale in Upland, California. "I'm sick and tired of hearing that illegal aliens are taking jobs that Americans don't want. The fact is Americans would be willing to do those jobs if they paid a decent wage. If the laws of our country were enforced, businesses were fined and violators jailed for hiring illegal aliens then Americans would take most if not all of the jobs now held by illegal aliens."
Katherine Frank in Madisonville, Tennessee, "Lou, hope you enjoy this recipe for middle class "let them eat cake." Take one part NAFTA loopholes, an equal part corporate greed, add a pinch of no-bid contractors and a dash of lobbyists. Outsource half the mix and the remaining melting pot whip in illegal immigrants. Stay on message till smooth. Remove lumps of civil liberties, fold in tax breaks keeping some aside for garnish. Grease well on all sides with campaign contributions."
We love hearing from you, including your poetry and your recipes. And send them along to us at loudobbs@CNN.com. Send us your name and address. Each of you whose e-mail is read on the broadcast receives a free copy of my new book, "Exporting America."
My next guest says President Bush's campaign for the next two week will focus on the war on terror and the war against radical Islamist terrorists. Charlie Black says Senator Kerry just cannot defeat the president on those issues. Charlie Black is a veteran Republican strategist, adviser to the Bush/Cheney campaign, joining me tonight from Washington, D.C. Good to have you with us.
Why is the president going to focus at this point on the war on terror, the war on radical Islamist terror, and the war in Iraq, Charlie?
CHARLIE BLACK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, the president believes that the war on terror is the most important issue facing the country, the biggest challenge for the next president. The president of course thinks that the war in Iraq is a part of the war on terror, and so, he's going to emphasize that that's the top priority for the country and that he has successfully led that war on terror so far. DOBBS: We've just received the Reuters Zogby poll showing a dead heat. The "Washington Post" tracking poll today showing -- the 5:00 Eastern Time poll showing that the president had opened up a five- point lead in that poll. Are you getting comfortable, or do you think that this race going to be -- is it capable of reversing itself several times over the next now less than two weeks?
BLACK: Well, it's going to be close. We've known for a couple of years that this would be a close race because the two parties are so evenly divided. If you look at all of the national polls since the last debate, the president would have a small lead, three or four points. I'd be happy to go ahead and vote today. But, no, we're not going to get comfortable and the president's going to campaign tirelessly right till the end.
DOBBS: At this juncture in the campaign, we have heard so little from both of these candidates, not just your candidate, but both of these candidates on immigration. It is on every poll, every survey, one of the most critically important issues. Why isn't your candidate and in your judgment why Senator Kerry are resisting so much the issue of immigration, and what to do about illegal immigration in this country?
BLACK: Well, you know, part of the reason might be that I don't think the voters perceive that much difference in their positions. There is a big difference. The president has a balanced program which would allow workers to come in to take jobs that Americans could not fill. Kerry, on the other hand, in the past has been for amnesty for illegal aliens, but you know, if you look at -- in most of the states, what are the top three, four, five issues. Illegal immigration is not among it in most of those states.
DOBBS: Well, it certainly is in the polling that we are seeing, Charlie, and certainly across the border states without question. And is likely to become more so. The issues that you think that the president will be focusing on over the course, where in your judgment, at what point do you think we're going to have a pretty clear sense of who's going to be elected president?
BLACK: Well, I think we're probably not going to know until late on election night or the next morning. We think it will be close. And I think the president does have a small advantage in the race. Another advantage he has is that there are only 10 or 11 swing states really left in play and about two-thirds of those are states that Al Gore carried. States that Kerry needs. So the playing field's expanding to the president's advantage. I think he will win. But it could be a two, three-point win in a lot of those states and we may have to stay up late on election night.
DOBBS: But you don't think it will be a repeat of 2000?
BLACK: Well, the law of averages is against that. I think if somebody wins even by two percentage points nationally, it is likely to tip enough states by a good enough margin that you cannot challenge it in court. DOBBS: Charles, I will spare you, asking you, which candidate do you think will win in that late election result evening. Charlie Black, we thank you for being here.
BLACK: My pleasure, Lou, thank you.
DOBBS: A reminder now to vote in our poll tonight. "Would you support Arizona's Proposition 200 or a similar ballot initiative in your state? Yes or no. Please cast your vote at CNN.com/lou. We'll have the results coming right up.
Still ahead, democracy at risk, why one state is moving away from paperless touch-screen voting. Kim Alexander is the founder/president of the California Voter Foundation. She is joining me to talk about many of the threats to the integrity of our voting system this year.
And President Bush and Senator Kerry pushing their platforms in critical battleground states. I'll be talking with three of the country's top political journalists.
And Spitzer sell-off. Why the New York attorney general's investigation has widened and sparked a sell-off on insurance stocks on Wall Street. We'll have the full report. Stay with us.
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DOBBS: The presidential election four years ago prompted Congress to set aside $3 billion to help the states upgrade their voting machines. Yet now four years later, many states haven't seen any of the money and nor have they done much to improve their election system. The election assistance commission, which the government created to allocate that money, says it's distributed more than $2 billion but most of the money remains in the bank and will stay there until states present plans on how they will spend it. Critics fault the EAC, which held its first meeting only this year.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DOUG CHAPLIN, ELECTIONONLINE.ORG: The commission hasn't been well-funded. Was started late, and probably is too late to the game in 2004 to have much of an impact on the 2004 presidential election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: My guest tonight says the federal government needs to do more to oversee voting reform across the country.
Kim Alexander is founder/president of the California Voter Foundation, joining us tonight from Sacramento, California.
Good to have you here, Kim.
KIM ALEXANDER, PRES. CALIFORNIA VOTER FOUNDATION: Hi, Lou. Thanks for having me.
DOBBS: The problems that we are already reporting here, lawsuits that have already been filed in a number of states, is there more to come in your best judgment?
ALEXANDER: I think there will be. We're really just at the beginning of resolving our voting technology problems. I mean, basically nobody paid much attention to voting technology until Florida 2000. At that point, lots of people started looking under the rock and discovering that these systems are not well regulated and their's not sufficient oversight and we really need the federal government to come back and do a better job of reforming our voter systems.
DOBBS: Well, candidly even with the 2000 election, Kim, I didn't perceive significant problems, thought that we were moving ahead with reform. I was, and I am just confessing my own acquiescence here, to a system that was in place. It looks shaky as the dickens right now.
ALEXANDER: Big problem, Lou, is that a lot of counties rushed out and bought paperless electronic voting systems without talking to computer scientists or very many people about it, and they've gone out and bought these systems that produce results that are publicly unverifiable, that because there is no paper audit trail of the ballot that's produce when the voter votes, that the voter can inspect and make sure their vote was recorded properly. And just as importantly that election officials can use once all of the votes come together, and the votes over at end of the voting day. To check and make sure it is right.
DOBBS: If we had -- it is pretty clear from the polls right now not that there's not going to be a tight race in California, but if we were to get a surprise, a surprise -- Charlie Black, you just heard him representing the Bush/Cheney campaign, thinks it;s going to be a lighter margin than 2000, but if the unthinkable were to occur, how reliable would a recount be in most states in your best assessment?
ALEXANDER: Depends where you are talking about. The battleground states where E-voting is being used pretty widely are states like Florida and New Mexico and Colorado. It's just a few counties in Colorado, but it's the populist ones. So, it depends if it's close. If we try to do a recount on these machine, we can't go back and discover what the voter's intent was because there isn't this paper record. Because if the machine's recorded the votes improperly in the first place or if the ballots are lost or altered while they're in transit, we cannot go back and fix.
DOBBS: Well, I'm going to do some old-fashioned, I'm going to start crossing my fingers, Kim. Thanks a lot, Kim.
ALEXANDER: You can also vote a paper ballot.
DOBBS: You got it. I'm going to also do that. Good counsel. Kim Alexander, thank you for being here.
ALEXANDER: Thank you.
DOBBS: "Tonight's Thought" is on voting. "Those who stay away from the election think that one vote will do no good. 'Tis but one step more to think that one vote will do no harm." Those the words of Ralph Waldo Emerson.
Stocks today lower on Wall Street. The Dow down nearly 59 points, the Nasdaq up nearly 14, the S&P 500 down almost 11.
The investigation into big rigging in the insurance industry widening.
Christine Romans is here with the story -- Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the subpoenas are flying. It looks as if no U.S. insurance company or HMO will be spared. New York attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation into hundreds of millions of dollars of bid rigging apparently not limited to property and casualty insurers in brokers, but life insurance and medical care. The A.G. wants to know whether inside deals among insurances brokers and providers, ultimately hurt consumers and said this probe is just beginning.
Now trouble for the insurance companies started last weekend when Spitzer accused Marsh & McLennan of rigging insurance bids and directing its clients to the insurers that paid Marsh the richest fees. Union Provident, today says it has received subpoenas from New York, about how it "bids." That stock fell 10 percent. So did shares of Aon, the reinsurance giant. Aetna fared worse. And Lou, Marsh & McLennan has lost almost half its value in just four day. Whatever happens there is the expectation there that there will be more transparency into the way these insurance companies do business and that's good for investors. Good for consumers, rather, not investors.
DOBBS: And that raises the question of how good transparency is for the insurance industry which suggests we need more transparency. Christine, thank you.
When we continue our political panel and letters to America. How one liberal foreign newspaper is trying to influence your vote. We'll have that remarkable story next. Stay with us.
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DOBBS: Outrage tonight after one of Britain's most liberal newspapers, encourages its readers to intervene in our election. The "Guardian" newspaper told its readers to write pro-Kerry letters to undecided voters in the state of Ohio, of course a critical battleground state. And as you might expect, the citizens of Ohio have not taken this blatant attempted interference very well. One angry voter sent an e-mail to the "Guardian" bluntly telling the newspaper's readers to mind their own business! Colorful language excepted from our communication here this evening.
Joining me now, well, three of the top political journalists in the country. From Washington, Roger Simon, "U.S. News and World Report," Karen Tumulty, "Time" magazine. And right here in New York, Mark Warren from "Esquire" magazine. Good to have you all here.
Karen, let's begin. What kind of outrage is this that "The Guardian" would dare to suggest a -- an intervention? Roger, how about you?
All right, you know what? How about you? We go this way. I don't know what is going on out there.
MARK WARREN, "ESQUIRE" MAGAZINE: People in my home town of Highlands, Texas love to get the advice from "The Guardian." I think they get all their political advice and voting guidance from foreign papers.
DOBBS: What's your home town again?
WARREN: Highlands, Texas.
DOBBS: Highlands, Texas. Well, as a Texan myself, I can imagine just how thrilled they would be.
WARREN: I would not try to take advantage of this if I were Senator Kerry. Probably not something to pay much attention to.
DOBBS: And the fact is, then you have Mahathir, formerly the head of Kuala-Lumpur, suggesting to Muslims that they vote for Senator Kerry. You have Vladimir Putin telling people that he would be more comfortable with President Bush.
I don't recall a time in which we've had this kind of international both interest and, one could argue, an intervention in our elections.
WARREN: Oh, absolutely. I think that President Putin's intervention yesterday was particularly striking, given that it's peculiar, given he was advising President Bush to stay out of his affairs not three weeks ago. So I don't know that President Bush is going to be appreciating his endorsement.
DOBBS: Or perhaps President Bush would be grateful. We don't know.
Let me turn to you, Karen, just ask you, talking with Charlie Black, he thinks that this race is coming down to a narrow margin but nothing like 2000. What's your take?
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, I think -- I think Charlie, as I was listening to that interview, was being a little bit optimistic here. Here's one statistic, Lou, to remember. Today, Michael Hooley (ph), who is a top Kerry strategist over at the Democratic National Committee, said that the party will be hiring so far 10,000 lawyers to be working on election day, and he said the number is growing every day.
So, unless this is a fairly substantial margin of a race, I think that Charlie's prediction that we're going to be up until the late hours on election night is actually pretty optimistic. It could go long after that.
DOBBS: You agree, Roger? ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": It certainly could. But I have a feeling if there is a clear popular vote winner and a clear Electoral College winner, and that person is the same person, the courts will stay out of it. The courts will stay out of it, as they have for a long, long time before 2000. The courts traditionally are very reluctant to overturn the will of the people, and if the will of the people is clear, I don't think the courts are going to intervene.
That won't prevent lawsuits, however. Karen's right about that.
DOBBS: It's -- it's a fine mess we find ourselves in, I think, the suggestion that we couldn't expect a certain amount of graciousness on the part of both political parties and both candidates. But of course, it would also be disingenuous to suggest that we will.
Let me ask you, and Roger, let me ask you first. Put up -- may I ask you to put up the job approval rating for President Bush right now, to just sort of show where we are in these polls. "The Washington Post" today showing approval rating for George Bush at 54 percent, "The New York Times" at 44 percent. Now, we're all used to the vagaries of these polls, but 10 percent difference? I mean, aren't we beginning -- these polls to strain our credulity, Karen?
TUMULTY: Well, I think -- and the difference between 54 percent and 44 percent -- 54 percent is a fairly healthy number. That's basically cruising to re-election. Forty-four percent is on life support. So these numbers, it is a gap that is the difference -- it's a literally a life-and-death gap difference for the president. So, I am with you. I don't know what to make of these disparities.
DOBBS: Do you have any thoughts?
WARREN: Splitting the difference, John Zogby, his reelect number for the president is 47 today. He's the hot hand for the last decade. The reelect number as Karen says, is the number, 44 is catastrophic at this point. Yet most polls somehow show a trend slightly for President Bush. I think we might just have to begin to ignore these numbers for the next two weeks.
DOBBS: Do you think that's a good idea, Roger, that we just begin to ignore these numbers?
SIMON: I think it's an excellent idea. I think it strained much more than credulity. And it's not just a matter of two polls disagreeing. They might have different survey methods and whatever, but it's when polls do wild swings, as we saw from a Gallup four years ago. And have seen this year, too, from a number of polls. When you get seven, eight, nine-point swings in a matter of days. And you know, just from living in America, that the electorate is really not changing its mind that dramatically. You wonder what's going on here? And I think what's going on here is smoke and mirrors and not science.
DOBBS: And not science, and -- but you will destroy a lot of fun for a lot of people if you insist on this monastic approach to polling. We are going to have to evaluate here whether we are going to include them or not.
You also heard Charlie Black say that the president is going to focus on Iraq and the war on terror in these next two weeks. Those were supposed to be the two principle vulnerabilities according to the Kerry campaign, and here is the president driving on those two issues. What do you make of it, Karen?
TUMULTY: Well, the Kerry campaign is still convinced that those are President Bush's vulnerabilities, and they are saying that they, too, will be focusing on Iraq at every conceivable opportunity over the next two weeks.
DOBBS: And, Roger, the idea that Senator Kerry has said the president is going to cut Social Security benefits, is going to institute the draft. We're going into new unchartered territory here, aren't we?
SIMON: No. It's called scare tactics. We hear a lot of it from Republicans; now we're beginning to hear the same things from Democrats. I don't think John Kerry really believes we are going to have a draft in the next four years, that Congress would pass it, and I don't think he thinks we're going to get a real privatization of Social Security either.
DOBBS: And Mark, tomorrow evening, we will get your views on Vice President Cheney's suggesting that dirty bombs might be transported easier in the United States should Senator Kerry be elected. Mark Warren and Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, as always, thanks.
Still ahead, the result of our poll tonight. And the results are extraordinarily exciting tonight. And a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Stay with us.
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DOBBS: The results of our poll tonight. Eighty-three percent of you would support Arizona's Proposition 200, or a similar ballot initiative in your own state.
Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us tomorrow, as we continue our reports on democracy at risk. Why some American activist groups want international monitors, or a higher number of them, to watch our election. Please join us for that story and a great deal more tomorrow. For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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