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CNN Live At Daybreak

'Hot Topics'; Lost Votes; World Series History

Aired October 22, 2004 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Lin.
"Now in the News."

The threat from insurgents in Iraq is bigger and better financed than U.S. officials originally thought. "The New York Times" reports today that intelligence reports say up to 20,000 fighters could be working against the U.S.

In Missouri, a former employee who opened fire at a St. Louis- area factory has surrendered. Authorities say one person suffered a minor gunshot wound. The man lost his job at the plant about a year ago.

And the director of a documentary critical of John Kerry's Vietnam service is suing Sinclair Broadcast Group. George Butler accuses Sinclair of illegally copying his photographs for use in the film "Stolen Honor."

And we'll be seeing all red at the World Series. St. Louis wins the National League pennant 5-2 over the Houston Astros. The Cardinals play the Boston Red Sox in game one of the World Series tomorrow night.

(WEATHER REPORT)

LIN: Well, with just 11 days to go before the presidential vote, George Bush and John Kerry are still neck and neck. The latest Associated Press poll shows 49 percent of likely voters support John Kerry, 46 percent support George Bush. That is still within the 3- point margin of error.

Now, in the crucial swing state of Ohio, 50 percent of registered voters now say Kerry is their choice for president, 44 percent say Bush. The gap narrows among likely voters; 48 percent picked Kerry, 47 percent Bush. Can't get much closer than that.

Now, the razor-thin presidential race is part of our political "Hot Topics" this morning. CNN political editor John Mercurio joins me now live -- actually on the telephone.

Hi, John. Good morning.

JOHN MERCURIO, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Good morning, Carol.

LIN: What do you think of this AP poll? MERCURIO: Well, I mean, as you said, it's tied. It's still within the margin of error. I think it means that Kerry has got a lot of work to do. I think Bush has a lot of work to do, too. Neither one of them at this point, you know, 11 days out, has this race sewn up. And it sort of sounds familiar, doesn't it, Carol? I mean, this is exactly what happened four years ago. This is exactly where we were, and we all know how that ended up.

LIN: You bet. And a lot can happen in the next few days leading up to Election Day. How do you think then -- I mean, do you have a sense from your experience how people are going to make this decision? Is it literally down to the ballot box, they're standing there in the booth? And what concerns are going to drive their decision?

MERCURIO: Most people make the decision, I think -- most undecided voters are going to make a decision, I think, not when they get to the voting booth, but within, you know, two or three days before the election.

You've got to remember also, though, a lot of these undecided voters, frankly, statistically, probably won't vote. I mean, at this point if you are undecided, if you've been inundated, as they have, with information, with campaign ads, you know, with news reports like this, and they're undecided, part of what might be driving that is the fact that they really won't make a decision and won't show up at the polls. And that's just statistically borne out to be true.

LIN: So is there a Clinton factor now that former President Bill Clinton is physically able to start campaigning for John Kerry this coming week?

MERCURIO: Well, I guess that remains to be seen. He is going to be campaigning in Philadelphia. He's doing a lunchtime rally with Kerry in Philadelphia on Monday.

We're also hearing that he's going to be going to a bunch of other swing states, maybe Florida and maybe New Hampshire, maybe even his home state of Arkansas, which hasn't actually been that close of a race. But who knows? Bill Clinton is the one person who could tighten it up for John Kerry.

Sure, I mean, Bill Clinton is the best person for a Democrat to bring out at the end of a campaign. Some Republicans say he's the best person for a Republican, too, because that could motivate their base as well. But we'll have to see how that works out for Kerry.

LIN: Yes. Yes, certainly lessons learned from the Gore campaign in 2000.

MERCURIO: Right.

LIN: You know, maybe some regrets that Bill Clinton didn't get a chance to do more for them.

MERCURIO: Exactly.

LIN: Thanks very much, John. You have a great day.

MERCURIO: Thank you. You too.

LIN: All right, something a little different at this year's Al Smith dinner in New York. The contenders for president were not invited. It's normally a night for political foes to put down their differences and pick up their forks. The president's father was there, taking some light-hearted shots at John Kerry. He advised the senator to watch out, not for him, but for his wife, Barbara.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE H.W. BUSH, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The constant attacks on our son have really gotten her steamed up. And it's not good to get her steamed. I don't know who's going to blow first, Barbara or Mount St. Helens. I know this: if Barbara ever gets her hands on Senator Kerry, he's going to need another Purple Heart.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: A lot of respect for his wife.

Well, there are no guarantees that your vote is actually going to count this election; that, despite efforts to improve the election process since the 2000 debacle.

CNN's Casey Wian looks at the problems in Los Angeles.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Los Angeles County, you can vote a half-dozen ways. Already, early voting is taking place using touch-screen machines.

Then there are mail-in absentee ballots, three different systems for military and overseas voting, plus provisional ballots for those whose name doesn't appear at their polling place.

Even the old-fashioned way has changed. It's a challenge for election officials trying to count all the votes and only the votes that should count.

CONNY MCCORMACK, L.A. COUNTY REGISTRAR: We've launched a huge voter education effort on how to use the equipment. A lot of voting equipment has changed. People usually, if something's new, they don't always know how to use it.

WIAN: Like many places, Los Angeles is switching to electronic voting, but it's not ready to complete the change.

(on camera): On Election Day, Los Angeles County will use a transitional voting system to replace its old punch-card method. Voters will be required to fill in a bubble on a card like this one.

(voice-over): The system mimics the sound of a punch card, but there's no chad to hang, only an ink dot counted by an optical scanner. Still, there will be errors here and everywhere.

Michael Alvarez led a Cal Tech/MIT study estimating four million to six million votes were lost during the 2000 election. He sees improvement, but persistent problems this time.

MICHAEL ALVAREZ, VOTER TECHNOLOGY PROJECT: For example, the very widespread use of prescored punch cards in a state like Ohio. The problems that we really don't know much about right now or we really can't foresee, like what's going to happen with provisional ballots.

WIAN: Provisional ballots are supposed to reduce lost votes caused by registration mistakes. L.A. County recently purged 200,000 invalid names, about 5 percent of its voter registration list, but that's not happening everywhere.

JOHN FUND, AUTHOR, "STEALING ELECTIONS": There are an awful lot people you could march in and vote in their name, and you would never be stopped because they don't exist or they've moved or they're no longer around.

WIAN: Fund estimates 30 percent of ballots will be cast outside polling places this year, and they're the most susceptible to fraud.

Casey Wian, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: The baseball playoffs have certainly been something for the record books. Coming up, I'm going to talk to a real-life baseball historian about just how significant this World Series is going to be.

And for those of you who've had enough of baseball, and, yes, we know you're out there, we're going to tell you what's new at the movies this weekend so you can plot your escape.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Friday morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Well, the first page says it all, doesn't it? Paint it red. The Red Sox and the redbirds will meet in the 2004 World Series.

The St. Louis Cardinals got there by beating the Houston Astros in game seven of the National League championship series. And it's the Cards first trip to the fall classic in 17 years.

And it is a classic match-up, isn't it, as well. The Red Sox were born as the Boston Americans in 1901, while the Cardinals began as the Brown Stockings in the 1880s.

For more on how this match-up is going to fit into baseball history, I'm going to go to Professor Charles Alexander, a noted baseball historian, author and teacher at Ohio University.

Professor Alexander, I should probably sort out your biases. Are you rooting for the Sox? Are you rooting for the Cardinals?

PROFESSOR CHARLES ALEXANDER, OHIO UNIVERSITY: I feel very strongly both ways.

LIN: Oh, well, well-balanced. Fair and balanced there at least this morning. Let me ask you, the -- you know, there have been other losing streaks that we've talked about. I mean, the White Sox haven't won a World Series since 1917, the Cubs not since 1908. Why do you think the Boston Red Sox story is so compelling?

ALEXANDER: Well, I think probably it has to do a lot with the fact that the Red Sox really are not just a Boston franchise. It's a New England franchise, really a regional franchise, and in some respects I think it's probably the first franchise as far as that kind of regional identity. And then, you know, there is the business of having been the only team that ever sold Babe Ruth and went into the doldrums for many years thereafter until really the late 1930s.

And, I don't know, there's something always happened to the Red Sox such that they're either in the pennant or on those few occasions when they got into the World Series. So they have just sort of become, you know, the team of misfortune.

LIN: Well, consider their misfortune with the Cardinals. I mean, the Cardinals have beat them twice historically in World Series, both in 1946 and in 1967, both times in the seventh game, in seven games. So does history tend to repeat itself? We're taking a look at a graphic we've produced of the curse against the Boston Red Sox.

ALEXANDER: Well...

LIN: Always in game seven, whether it's the St. Louis Cardinals or Cincinnati or the New York Mets.

ALEXANDER: Yes, I don't -- I'm not very optimistic about the condition of -- excuse me -- of the Red Sox pitching going into the series. Martinez looked bad the other night and has really not looked good in the post-season. And, of course, Curt Schilling was heroic the other night, but I don't know whether you can expect him to pitch with a bleeding ankle again or how long you can expect him to pitch, whereas the Cardinals pitching is in pretty good shape.

LIN: So do you find -- I mean, based on skill, yes. But also maybe just a history here. I mean, do you think the seven-game losing streak, you might call it, against the Cardinals is likely to repeat itself then?

ALEXANDER: Well, I'm a -- you know, I'm a person who doesn't believe in the supernatural, and I don't -- with regard to baseball or anything else. But, you know, I don't think there is anything necessarily...

LIN: So you don't believe the ghost of Babe Ruth is going to be at the game Saturday night?

ALEXANDER: No, I don't think so. LIN: Oh, Professor Alexander, there's no fun in that.

ALEXANDER: Actually, I think probably the ghost of Babe is hidden some way, somewhere in the bowels of Yankee Stadium for years now for the Yankees more than, you know...

LIN: Yes.

ALEXANDER: ... he'd be interested in the Red Sox.

LIN: Well, imagine if the Red Sox won, it would be yet another wildcard team to win, the third wildcard team in a row. Professor, I don't know if you're a purist, but some people, that might upset some people.

ALEXANDER: Well, I am a purist, but I have adjusted to the reality of what in effect is a second season three-tiered playoff in a post-season arrangement, and that would -- you know, I think we're all sort of used to the emergence of wildcard teams.

LIN: Well, that would be -- it would be exciting indeed. But we'll see. I'm not -- you know, I'm not rooting against the Cardinals. It will be an exciting weekend. Thanks very much, Professor.

ALEXANDER: Yes indeed.

LIN: Professor Charles Alexander.

Let's check in with Bill and Soledad in Chicago for a look at what's coming up on "AMERICAN MORNING."

Good morning, guys.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, good morning.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Carol, good morning to you. It's our final day from Chicago in fact.

HEMMER: Yes.

O'BRIEN: Today, we're at the Adler Planetarium, and we're taking a look at some of the headlines this morning. Eleven days, of course, until the election. We're going to take another look at the poll numbers. Could one candidate win with the Electoral College and lose the popular vote? We're going to talk to our political analyst, Ron Brownstein, this morning.

HEMMER: Won't that be fun.

O'BRIEN: Do you think?

HEMMER: Politics and movies today, part two of Toure's conversation with the movie critics here in Chicago. You know them as Epert and Roeper. What are the best political movies ever? And what's the impact of "Fahrenheit 9/11" on this year's election cycle? We'll look at that.

O'BRIEN: Also this morning, Olympic medal controversy is now resolved. Gymnast Paul Hamm gets to keep his gold medal. We're going to talk with him this morning about the whole ordeal and what happens next. That and much, much more all ahead on this "AMERICAN MORNING."

HEMMER: And, Carol, wait until you see the skyline behind us when the sun comes up in about 30 minutes. It's going to be absolutely gorgeous for us today on our last day.

LIN: Oh, great.

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: Chilly weather, fantastic time.

LIN: Fantastic coverage.

O'BRIEN: No, not so bad.

LIN: No? OK. So that...

O'BRIEN: No, but a big moth just landed on me.

LIN: OK, we'll give you a chance to recover before "AMERICAN MORNING." Thanks. We'll be looking forward to seeing both of you and that sunrise.

HEMMER: Bye-bye.

LIN: Your news, money, weather and sports. It's now 46 past the hour, a quarter till. And here's what's all new.

Airstrikes in Fallujah destroyed two buildings full of ammunition and weapons. A military spokesman says the strike triggered a number of secondary explosions. No word on any casualties.

An Arkansas State Police report finds careless driving as partly to blame for a deadly tour bus accident earlier this month. The bus overturned, killing 14 people and injured 16 others.

In money, what would Chairman Mai (ph) think? The first Hooters restaurant opens today in Shanghai. It joins other American food chains like McDonald's and KFC and trying to take advantage of China's booming economy.

In culture, movie tough guy Sylvester Stallone is taking a swipe at a new venture. He's starting a men's magazine focusing on health and fitness for men, yes, of a certain age. It's going to be called "Sly." He looks pretty good for being in his 50s.

All right, in sports, American gymnast Paul Hamm gets to keep his Olympic gold medal for all-around champ. An international sports committee rejected an appeal from a South Korean gymnast. And you're going to hear from Paul Hamm, Orelon, on "AMERICAN MORNING" coming up. I'm sure he's relieved that this is behind him now. ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I'm sure he is. And a lot of us are going to be relieved when you take a look at this cold and flu report. This cold and flu report is showing you that things are pretty quiet, at least for now, across the nation. February is generally the month when the flu is the worst, and you can see now that here we are in the mid to late part of October, and there's only some sporadic activity throughout the West, parts of the Southwest and the Southeast, and Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania also some sporadic reports.

But, Carol, people over 85 have the highest risk of influenza- associated hospitalizations, and each year over 200,000 people are hospitalized with flu-related illnesses.

LIN: Something to be taken seriously. That's an interesting map. That's good to have around for this flu season. Thanks, Orelon.

SIDNEY: You're welcome.

LIN: It's time now for a little business buzz.

Have investors gone gaga over Google? Carrie Lee has the company's first-ever public earnings report. She's at the Nasdaq Marketsite.

What's up -- Carrie?

CARRIE LEE, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Google shares are up, Carol. They were in the after-hours session anyway, gaining about 6 percent. People liking this report.

I have to say, though, Google is a rather unconventional company, and that was clear in the conference call last night.

Let me give you the numbers. Sales more than doubling from the year-ago period to $805.9 million. Take off certain costs, the number coming in at 503 million. So better than Wall Street had been expecting. Profits of 19 cents a share, that's $52 million. Again, though, take out some costs involved with legal settlements involving Yahoo, they came in at 45 cents a share. And that figure is better than the Wall Street consensus of 56 cents.

But estimates here on Wall Street were really all over the map, because Google hasn't given profit guidance. In fact, they're not giving guidance going forward, say they will not do that.

And then there was a question regarding stock compensation in the conference call last night. And the company's exec said, oh, well, when you take that into account, we actually earned 70 cents a share.

So Google shares after hours initially falling, then rising. The bottom line: People liking this company even though they're not really sure where it's going to go financially going forward. This company has a market cap value of all shares outstanding of about $44 billion, and people keep buying in. So that's the latest on Google. Amazon.com is sort of the opposite story. Shares down about 8 percent last night after missing the Wall Street estimate on profits by a penny per share, coming in at 17 cents each. That's $73 million. Sales up 29 percent to about $1.5 billion. But for the fourth quarter they're giving a range that could miss the Wall Street estimate and sales for 2005 are less than Wall Street had been expecting as well. So Amazon taking a hit. In fact, futures for techs, Carol, are looking pretty weak across the board because of Amazon and Microsoft's report.

Back to you.

LIN: Oh, that expectation. Thanks, Carrie.

LEE: That's right.

LIN: You have a great weekend.

LEE: You too. Thanks.

LIN: Well, two unhappy women with big secrets and a house full of evil spirits holding a grudge. It's not the weekend for light comedy, but Tom O'Neil joins me next with the word on what's worth seeing, and he says a lot is worth seeing.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Buffy, the vampire slayer, also known as Sarah Michelle Gellar, is taking on new challenges, but without supernatural powers.

Tom O'Neil of "In-Touch Weekly" joins me now to talk about that new film, as well as a couple of others with Oscar buzz.

Good morning, Tom.

TOM O'NEIL, EDITOR, "IN-TOUCH WEEKLY": Good morning, Carol.

LIN: Sarah Michelle Gellar, I don't know. It sounds awfully familiar to me, a one-note song. What did you think of "The Grudge?"

O'NEIL: Well, this is an attempt to bring the Japanese horror movie to America, and what a better way to try to do that than with the great American screen queen, Sarah. But, Carol, you know, after all of the vampires that she has slain as Buffy, after all of the scary movies she has been in, like "Scream" and "I Know What You Did Last Summer," and let's talk really scary, "Scooby-Doo," you would think she would know better than to...

LIN: Yes.

O'NEIL: ... go into this big, spooky house in Japan where there is a grudge, where there's a curse that lingers and it spreads like a virus. This is going to be the No. 1 movie of the weekend.

LIN: Oh.

O'NEIL: And it's different. It's more creepy than scary, but if you like creepy movies, you might check it out.

LIN: She knows the recipe for success.

Let's talk about a couple of others. Annette Bening back on the screen in "Being Julia," and also another one, "Vera Drake," that you really like a lot with an actress I've never heard of before. But this is a salute to women over 40, getting these juicy, meaty roles.

O'NEIL: Yes, Oscar season has begun. We're going to be seeing over the next few weeks these little movies. Catch them now while they're in the art houses. They're going to be probably pulled back for a few weeks, and then they'll come back at Oscar time. But if you want to follow this, get in there early.

Which one do you want to talk about first?

LIN: "Being Julia," Annette Bening, coming back.

O'NEIL: "Being Julia."

LIN: I haven't seen her since "American Beauty."

O'NEIL: Yes. And this is terrific. It's one of my favorite films of the year. She plays a British stage diva who has a fling with a young American fan. Now, imagine Annette playing both Bette Davis from "All About Eve" and Gloria Swanson from "Sunset Boulevard." It's a grand diva role. She is likely going to win best actress at the Golden Globes on that comedy musical side, which will set her up as a major player at the Oscars.

LIN: Wouldn't that be fantastic?

O'NEIL: And by the way, I have an interview with Annette on my Web site, GoldDerby.com, if you want to check it out.

LIN: All right, will do.

In the meantime, "Vera Drake," this is a dark, dark story about a woman who back in, what, the 1950s, a back street abortionist.

O'NEIL: Yes, but she does it not for money. She does it because she wants to help out the young girls. And what is wonderful about this film is it's so natural, it's so believable. And when she's caught and she has to face the many moral and legal implications of what she's done, you see a very haunted woman.

Imelda Staunton, who you are referring to here, is likely going to become the best actress frontrunner at those critics' awards from New York and Los Angeles...

LIN: All right.

O'NEIL: ... which will set her up as a major Oscar player. She's a veteran British actress.

LIN: We'll take your word for it. Thank you very much, Tom. You have a great weekend.

O'NEIL: You too, Carol.

LIN: Happy viewing.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Hey, here's your chance to win a DAYBREAK coffee mug. Today's coffee quiz questions. Ralph Nadar asked the Supreme Court to force what state to put him on its ballot? And in what two years did the Red Sox lose to the Cardinals in the World Series?

We're going to name the winner Monday morning.

From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Lin. Have a great weekend. "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.


Aired October 22, 2004 - 06:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Lin.
"Now in the News."

The threat from insurgents in Iraq is bigger and better financed than U.S. officials originally thought. "The New York Times" reports today that intelligence reports say up to 20,000 fighters could be working against the U.S.

In Missouri, a former employee who opened fire at a St. Louis- area factory has surrendered. Authorities say one person suffered a minor gunshot wound. The man lost his job at the plant about a year ago.

And the director of a documentary critical of John Kerry's Vietnam service is suing Sinclair Broadcast Group. George Butler accuses Sinclair of illegally copying his photographs for use in the film "Stolen Honor."

And we'll be seeing all red at the World Series. St. Louis wins the National League pennant 5-2 over the Houston Astros. The Cardinals play the Boston Red Sox in game one of the World Series tomorrow night.

(WEATHER REPORT)

LIN: Well, with just 11 days to go before the presidential vote, George Bush and John Kerry are still neck and neck. The latest Associated Press poll shows 49 percent of likely voters support John Kerry, 46 percent support George Bush. That is still within the 3- point margin of error.

Now, in the crucial swing state of Ohio, 50 percent of registered voters now say Kerry is their choice for president, 44 percent say Bush. The gap narrows among likely voters; 48 percent picked Kerry, 47 percent Bush. Can't get much closer than that.

Now, the razor-thin presidential race is part of our political "Hot Topics" this morning. CNN political editor John Mercurio joins me now live -- actually on the telephone.

Hi, John. Good morning.

JOHN MERCURIO, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Good morning, Carol.

LIN: What do you think of this AP poll? MERCURIO: Well, I mean, as you said, it's tied. It's still within the margin of error. I think it means that Kerry has got a lot of work to do. I think Bush has a lot of work to do, too. Neither one of them at this point, you know, 11 days out, has this race sewn up. And it sort of sounds familiar, doesn't it, Carol? I mean, this is exactly what happened four years ago. This is exactly where we were, and we all know how that ended up.

LIN: You bet. And a lot can happen in the next few days leading up to Election Day. How do you think then -- I mean, do you have a sense from your experience how people are going to make this decision? Is it literally down to the ballot box, they're standing there in the booth? And what concerns are going to drive their decision?

MERCURIO: Most people make the decision, I think -- most undecided voters are going to make a decision, I think, not when they get to the voting booth, but within, you know, two or three days before the election.

You've got to remember also, though, a lot of these undecided voters, frankly, statistically, probably won't vote. I mean, at this point if you are undecided, if you've been inundated, as they have, with information, with campaign ads, you know, with news reports like this, and they're undecided, part of what might be driving that is the fact that they really won't make a decision and won't show up at the polls. And that's just statistically borne out to be true.

LIN: So is there a Clinton factor now that former President Bill Clinton is physically able to start campaigning for John Kerry this coming week?

MERCURIO: Well, I guess that remains to be seen. He is going to be campaigning in Philadelphia. He's doing a lunchtime rally with Kerry in Philadelphia on Monday.

We're also hearing that he's going to be going to a bunch of other swing states, maybe Florida and maybe New Hampshire, maybe even his home state of Arkansas, which hasn't actually been that close of a race. But who knows? Bill Clinton is the one person who could tighten it up for John Kerry.

Sure, I mean, Bill Clinton is the best person for a Democrat to bring out at the end of a campaign. Some Republicans say he's the best person for a Republican, too, because that could motivate their base as well. But we'll have to see how that works out for Kerry.

LIN: Yes. Yes, certainly lessons learned from the Gore campaign in 2000.

MERCURIO: Right.

LIN: You know, maybe some regrets that Bill Clinton didn't get a chance to do more for them.

MERCURIO: Exactly.

LIN: Thanks very much, John. You have a great day.

MERCURIO: Thank you. You too.

LIN: All right, something a little different at this year's Al Smith dinner in New York. The contenders for president were not invited. It's normally a night for political foes to put down their differences and pick up their forks. The president's father was there, taking some light-hearted shots at John Kerry. He advised the senator to watch out, not for him, but for his wife, Barbara.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE H.W. BUSH, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The constant attacks on our son have really gotten her steamed up. And it's not good to get her steamed. I don't know who's going to blow first, Barbara or Mount St. Helens. I know this: if Barbara ever gets her hands on Senator Kerry, he's going to need another Purple Heart.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: A lot of respect for his wife.

Well, there are no guarantees that your vote is actually going to count this election; that, despite efforts to improve the election process since the 2000 debacle.

CNN's Casey Wian looks at the problems in Los Angeles.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Los Angeles County, you can vote a half-dozen ways. Already, early voting is taking place using touch-screen machines.

Then there are mail-in absentee ballots, three different systems for military and overseas voting, plus provisional ballots for those whose name doesn't appear at their polling place.

Even the old-fashioned way has changed. It's a challenge for election officials trying to count all the votes and only the votes that should count.

CONNY MCCORMACK, L.A. COUNTY REGISTRAR: We've launched a huge voter education effort on how to use the equipment. A lot of voting equipment has changed. People usually, if something's new, they don't always know how to use it.

WIAN: Like many places, Los Angeles is switching to electronic voting, but it's not ready to complete the change.

(on camera): On Election Day, Los Angeles County will use a transitional voting system to replace its old punch-card method. Voters will be required to fill in a bubble on a card like this one.

(voice-over): The system mimics the sound of a punch card, but there's no chad to hang, only an ink dot counted by an optical scanner. Still, there will be errors here and everywhere.

Michael Alvarez led a Cal Tech/MIT study estimating four million to six million votes were lost during the 2000 election. He sees improvement, but persistent problems this time.

MICHAEL ALVAREZ, VOTER TECHNOLOGY PROJECT: For example, the very widespread use of prescored punch cards in a state like Ohio. The problems that we really don't know much about right now or we really can't foresee, like what's going to happen with provisional ballots.

WIAN: Provisional ballots are supposed to reduce lost votes caused by registration mistakes. L.A. County recently purged 200,000 invalid names, about 5 percent of its voter registration list, but that's not happening everywhere.

JOHN FUND, AUTHOR, "STEALING ELECTIONS": There are an awful lot people you could march in and vote in their name, and you would never be stopped because they don't exist or they've moved or they're no longer around.

WIAN: Fund estimates 30 percent of ballots will be cast outside polling places this year, and they're the most susceptible to fraud.

Casey Wian, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: The baseball playoffs have certainly been something for the record books. Coming up, I'm going to talk to a real-life baseball historian about just how significant this World Series is going to be.

And for those of you who've had enough of baseball, and, yes, we know you're out there, we're going to tell you what's new at the movies this weekend so you can plot your escape.

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Friday morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Well, the first page says it all, doesn't it? Paint it red. The Red Sox and the redbirds will meet in the 2004 World Series.

The St. Louis Cardinals got there by beating the Houston Astros in game seven of the National League championship series. And it's the Cards first trip to the fall classic in 17 years.

And it is a classic match-up, isn't it, as well. The Red Sox were born as the Boston Americans in 1901, while the Cardinals began as the Brown Stockings in the 1880s.

For more on how this match-up is going to fit into baseball history, I'm going to go to Professor Charles Alexander, a noted baseball historian, author and teacher at Ohio University.

Professor Alexander, I should probably sort out your biases. Are you rooting for the Sox? Are you rooting for the Cardinals?

PROFESSOR CHARLES ALEXANDER, OHIO UNIVERSITY: I feel very strongly both ways.

LIN: Oh, well, well-balanced. Fair and balanced there at least this morning. Let me ask you, the -- you know, there have been other losing streaks that we've talked about. I mean, the White Sox haven't won a World Series since 1917, the Cubs not since 1908. Why do you think the Boston Red Sox story is so compelling?

ALEXANDER: Well, I think probably it has to do a lot with the fact that the Red Sox really are not just a Boston franchise. It's a New England franchise, really a regional franchise, and in some respects I think it's probably the first franchise as far as that kind of regional identity. And then, you know, there is the business of having been the only team that ever sold Babe Ruth and went into the doldrums for many years thereafter until really the late 1930s.

And, I don't know, there's something always happened to the Red Sox such that they're either in the pennant or on those few occasions when they got into the World Series. So they have just sort of become, you know, the team of misfortune.

LIN: Well, consider their misfortune with the Cardinals. I mean, the Cardinals have beat them twice historically in World Series, both in 1946 and in 1967, both times in the seventh game, in seven games. So does history tend to repeat itself? We're taking a look at a graphic we've produced of the curse against the Boston Red Sox.

ALEXANDER: Well...

LIN: Always in game seven, whether it's the St. Louis Cardinals or Cincinnati or the New York Mets.

ALEXANDER: Yes, I don't -- I'm not very optimistic about the condition of -- excuse me -- of the Red Sox pitching going into the series. Martinez looked bad the other night and has really not looked good in the post-season. And, of course, Curt Schilling was heroic the other night, but I don't know whether you can expect him to pitch with a bleeding ankle again or how long you can expect him to pitch, whereas the Cardinals pitching is in pretty good shape.

LIN: So do you find -- I mean, based on skill, yes. But also maybe just a history here. I mean, do you think the seven-game losing streak, you might call it, against the Cardinals is likely to repeat itself then?

ALEXANDER: Well, I'm a -- you know, I'm a person who doesn't believe in the supernatural, and I don't -- with regard to baseball or anything else. But, you know, I don't think there is anything necessarily...

LIN: So you don't believe the ghost of Babe Ruth is going to be at the game Saturday night?

ALEXANDER: No, I don't think so. LIN: Oh, Professor Alexander, there's no fun in that.

ALEXANDER: Actually, I think probably the ghost of Babe is hidden some way, somewhere in the bowels of Yankee Stadium for years now for the Yankees more than, you know...

LIN: Yes.

ALEXANDER: ... he'd be interested in the Red Sox.

LIN: Well, imagine if the Red Sox won, it would be yet another wildcard team to win, the third wildcard team in a row. Professor, I don't know if you're a purist, but some people, that might upset some people.

ALEXANDER: Well, I am a purist, but I have adjusted to the reality of what in effect is a second season three-tiered playoff in a post-season arrangement, and that would -- you know, I think we're all sort of used to the emergence of wildcard teams.

LIN: Well, that would be -- it would be exciting indeed. But we'll see. I'm not -- you know, I'm not rooting against the Cardinals. It will be an exciting weekend. Thanks very much, Professor.

ALEXANDER: Yes indeed.

LIN: Professor Charles Alexander.

Let's check in with Bill and Soledad in Chicago for a look at what's coming up on "AMERICAN MORNING."

Good morning, guys.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, good morning.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Carol, good morning to you. It's our final day from Chicago in fact.

HEMMER: Yes.

O'BRIEN: Today, we're at the Adler Planetarium, and we're taking a look at some of the headlines this morning. Eleven days, of course, until the election. We're going to take another look at the poll numbers. Could one candidate win with the Electoral College and lose the popular vote? We're going to talk to our political analyst, Ron Brownstein, this morning.

HEMMER: Won't that be fun.

O'BRIEN: Do you think?

HEMMER: Politics and movies today, part two of Toure's conversation with the movie critics here in Chicago. You know them as Epert and Roeper. What are the best political movies ever? And what's the impact of "Fahrenheit 9/11" on this year's election cycle? We'll look at that.

O'BRIEN: Also this morning, Olympic medal controversy is now resolved. Gymnast Paul Hamm gets to keep his gold medal. We're going to talk with him this morning about the whole ordeal and what happens next. That and much, much more all ahead on this "AMERICAN MORNING."

HEMMER: And, Carol, wait until you see the skyline behind us when the sun comes up in about 30 minutes. It's going to be absolutely gorgeous for us today on our last day.

LIN: Oh, great.

(CROSSTALK)

O'BRIEN: Chilly weather, fantastic time.

LIN: Fantastic coverage.

O'BRIEN: No, not so bad.

LIN: No? OK. So that...

O'BRIEN: No, but a big moth just landed on me.

LIN: OK, we'll give you a chance to recover before "AMERICAN MORNING." Thanks. We'll be looking forward to seeing both of you and that sunrise.

HEMMER: Bye-bye.

LIN: Your news, money, weather and sports. It's now 46 past the hour, a quarter till. And here's what's all new.

Airstrikes in Fallujah destroyed two buildings full of ammunition and weapons. A military spokesman says the strike triggered a number of secondary explosions. No word on any casualties.

An Arkansas State Police report finds careless driving as partly to blame for a deadly tour bus accident earlier this month. The bus overturned, killing 14 people and injured 16 others.

In money, what would Chairman Mai (ph) think? The first Hooters restaurant opens today in Shanghai. It joins other American food chains like McDonald's and KFC and trying to take advantage of China's booming economy.

In culture, movie tough guy Sylvester Stallone is taking a swipe at a new venture. He's starting a men's magazine focusing on health and fitness for men, yes, of a certain age. It's going to be called "Sly." He looks pretty good for being in his 50s.

All right, in sports, American gymnast Paul Hamm gets to keep his Olympic gold medal for all-around champ. An international sports committee rejected an appeal from a South Korean gymnast. And you're going to hear from Paul Hamm, Orelon, on "AMERICAN MORNING" coming up. I'm sure he's relieved that this is behind him now. ORELON SIDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I'm sure he is. And a lot of us are going to be relieved when you take a look at this cold and flu report. This cold and flu report is showing you that things are pretty quiet, at least for now, across the nation. February is generally the month when the flu is the worst, and you can see now that here we are in the mid to late part of October, and there's only some sporadic activity throughout the West, parts of the Southwest and the Southeast, and Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania also some sporadic reports.

But, Carol, people over 85 have the highest risk of influenza- associated hospitalizations, and each year over 200,000 people are hospitalized with flu-related illnesses.

LIN: Something to be taken seriously. That's an interesting map. That's good to have around for this flu season. Thanks, Orelon.

SIDNEY: You're welcome.

LIN: It's time now for a little business buzz.

Have investors gone gaga over Google? Carrie Lee has the company's first-ever public earnings report. She's at the Nasdaq Marketsite.

What's up -- Carrie?

CARRIE LEE, CNN FINANCIAL NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Google shares are up, Carol. They were in the after-hours session anyway, gaining about 6 percent. People liking this report.

I have to say, though, Google is a rather unconventional company, and that was clear in the conference call last night.

Let me give you the numbers. Sales more than doubling from the year-ago period to $805.9 million. Take off certain costs, the number coming in at 503 million. So better than Wall Street had been expecting. Profits of 19 cents a share, that's $52 million. Again, though, take out some costs involved with legal settlements involving Yahoo, they came in at 45 cents a share. And that figure is better than the Wall Street consensus of 56 cents.

But estimates here on Wall Street were really all over the map, because Google hasn't given profit guidance. In fact, they're not giving guidance going forward, say they will not do that.

And then there was a question regarding stock compensation in the conference call last night. And the company's exec said, oh, well, when you take that into account, we actually earned 70 cents a share.

So Google shares after hours initially falling, then rising. The bottom line: People liking this company even though they're not really sure where it's going to go financially going forward. This company has a market cap value of all shares outstanding of about $44 billion, and people keep buying in. So that's the latest on Google. Amazon.com is sort of the opposite story. Shares down about 8 percent last night after missing the Wall Street estimate on profits by a penny per share, coming in at 17 cents each. That's $73 million. Sales up 29 percent to about $1.5 billion. But for the fourth quarter they're giving a range that could miss the Wall Street estimate and sales for 2005 are less than Wall Street had been expecting as well. So Amazon taking a hit. In fact, futures for techs, Carol, are looking pretty weak across the board because of Amazon and Microsoft's report.

Back to you.

LIN: Oh, that expectation. Thanks, Carrie.

LEE: That's right.

LIN: You have a great weekend.

LEE: You too. Thanks.

LIN: Well, two unhappy women with big secrets and a house full of evil spirits holding a grudge. It's not the weekend for light comedy, but Tom O'Neil joins me next with the word on what's worth seeing, and he says a lot is worth seeing.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Buffy, the vampire slayer, also known as Sarah Michelle Gellar, is taking on new challenges, but without supernatural powers.

Tom O'Neil of "In-Touch Weekly" joins me now to talk about that new film, as well as a couple of others with Oscar buzz.

Good morning, Tom.

TOM O'NEIL, EDITOR, "IN-TOUCH WEEKLY": Good morning, Carol.

LIN: Sarah Michelle Gellar, I don't know. It sounds awfully familiar to me, a one-note song. What did you think of "The Grudge?"

O'NEIL: Well, this is an attempt to bring the Japanese horror movie to America, and what a better way to try to do that than with the great American screen queen, Sarah. But, Carol, you know, after all of the vampires that she has slain as Buffy, after all of the scary movies she has been in, like "Scream" and "I Know What You Did Last Summer," and let's talk really scary, "Scooby-Doo," you would think she would know better than to...

LIN: Yes.

O'NEIL: ... go into this big, spooky house in Japan where there is a grudge, where there's a curse that lingers and it spreads like a virus. This is going to be the No. 1 movie of the weekend.

LIN: Oh.

O'NEIL: And it's different. It's more creepy than scary, but if you like creepy movies, you might check it out.

LIN: She knows the recipe for success.

Let's talk about a couple of others. Annette Bening back on the screen in "Being Julia," and also another one, "Vera Drake," that you really like a lot with an actress I've never heard of before. But this is a salute to women over 40, getting these juicy, meaty roles.

O'NEIL: Yes, Oscar season has begun. We're going to be seeing over the next few weeks these little movies. Catch them now while they're in the art houses. They're going to be probably pulled back for a few weeks, and then they'll come back at Oscar time. But if you want to follow this, get in there early.

Which one do you want to talk about first?

LIN: "Being Julia," Annette Bening, coming back.

O'NEIL: "Being Julia."

LIN: I haven't seen her since "American Beauty."

O'NEIL: Yes. And this is terrific. It's one of my favorite films of the year. She plays a British stage diva who has a fling with a young American fan. Now, imagine Annette playing both Bette Davis from "All About Eve" and Gloria Swanson from "Sunset Boulevard." It's a grand diva role. She is likely going to win best actress at the Golden Globes on that comedy musical side, which will set her up as a major player at the Oscars.

LIN: Wouldn't that be fantastic?

O'NEIL: And by the way, I have an interview with Annette on my Web site, GoldDerby.com, if you want to check it out.

LIN: All right, will do.

In the meantime, "Vera Drake," this is a dark, dark story about a woman who back in, what, the 1950s, a back street abortionist.

O'NEIL: Yes, but she does it not for money. She does it because she wants to help out the young girls. And what is wonderful about this film is it's so natural, it's so believable. And when she's caught and she has to face the many moral and legal implications of what she's done, you see a very haunted woman.

Imelda Staunton, who you are referring to here, is likely going to become the best actress frontrunner at those critics' awards from New York and Los Angeles...

LIN: All right.

O'NEIL: ... which will set her up as a major Oscar player. She's a veteran British actress.

LIN: We'll take your word for it. Thank you very much, Tom. You have a great weekend.

O'NEIL: You too, Carol.

LIN: Happy viewing.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Hey, here's your chance to win a DAYBREAK coffee mug. Today's coffee quiz questions. Ralph Nadar asked the Supreme Court to force what state to put him on its ballot? And in what two years did the Red Sox lose to the Cardinals in the World Series?

We're going to name the winner Monday morning.

From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Lin. Have a great weekend. "AMERICAN MORNING" starts right now.

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