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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Iraq Insurgency Larger, Stronger Than Reported; Bush, Kerry Battle for Votes in Swing States

Aired October 22, 2004 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, the Pentagon admits the Iraq insurgency has grown much larger and stronger than previously reported. Former coalition senior adviser Dan Senor is my guest. I'll ask him what happened to those bitter-enders and the dead-enders the Pentagon used to talk about.
President Bush and Senator Kerry are battling for votes in key swing states. So are armies of attorneys. Their fears of chaos on election night. Much of that chaos from those very same attorneys.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ELIOTT MINCBERG, PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAY FOUNDATION: We hope to have as many as 25,000 volunteers of which we hope 5,000 will be lawyers and law students.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Tonight, Democracy at Risk, our special report.

Shocking concerns tonight about the safety of the Coast Guard's French-made helicopters and their American engines.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CMDR. JEFF MAKOWSKI, U.S. COAST GUARD: I'm always thinking where could I land if I lose an engine?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: And Arab-Americans and this presidential election, a community divided. I'll talk with two leading Arab-Americans tonight, one who has endorsed the Senator Kerry, the other supporting President Bush.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Friday, October 22. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening.

The Pentagon today admitted the number of insurgents in Iraq is much higher than previously estimated. Military intelligence officers say there are as many as 12,000 insurgents now in Iraq. Earlier estimates put the figure as low as 5,000.

The Pentagon also says the insurgency is well financed, some of that money coming from Saudi Arabia, supposedly a close ally of this country.

Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A new internal Pentagon analysis offers a sobering assessment of what the U.S. is up against in Iraq: an insurgency that is growing fueled by an almost unlimited pool of money funneled through Syria.

A U.S. intelligence official tells CNN the insurgency, thought to number between 5,000 and 7,000 months ago, is now estimated to include 12,000 fighters from 50 different cells. The result has been a sharp increase in attacks, as many as 90 a day at times, and more high- profile kidnappings, such as the director of CARE International's Iraq office.

MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: We are not winning the war right now. We may turn things around. We may be preparing the Iraqi security forces thoroughly so they can take up the war effort and allow us to gradually withdraw in a year or two, but, right now, we're not winning.

MCINTYRE: The Pentagon continues to insist the increase in violence is to be expected as Iraqi elections draw near and rejects any suggestion Iraq is becoming a quagmire.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: And there's some very bad people who want to take that country back to a dark place, and I don't call that a quagmire.

MCINTYRE: The Pentagon has said the insurgents were getting money from both Syria and Iran, but a new DIA report estimates that roughly half of the $1 billion Saddam Hussein stashed in Syrian banks before the war, some $500 million, is a prime funding source for the militants, and it believes millions more coming from wealthy Saudis and Islamic charities, who also funnel money through Syria, a charge the Saudi government called irresponsible and factually incorrect, insisting it has tightened financial controls to ensure no money goes to terrorism.

There's also evidence that insurgents have had some success infiltrating the new Iraqi security forces. For example, Tuesday's mortar attack on an Iraqi National Guard base north of Baghdad seemed to be based on inside information about when the troops would be gathering for a ceremony.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: As little as six months ago, officials here were downplaying some of their own intelligence which suggested the insurgents had more support than the Pentagon was acknowledging. These days, no one is disputing that the insurgency has turned out to be bigger and better funded than anyone expected -- Lou.

DOBBS: Jamie, let's -- just bald-faced -- how are we to believe that this intelligence is anymore reliable than the previous intelligence?

MCINTYRE: Well, it is intelligence, and it's based on estimates and analysis done by the Defense Intelligence Agency. So it is subject to question. The numbers, for instance, are just estimates based on the best information they have.

But what's clear here is that they're no longer trying to say that it's an isolated view that this insurgency is growing. That's now become the consensus opinion.

DOBBS: And the Pentagon's has given up the language of bitter- enders and dead-enders to which it adhered for so long?

MCINTYRE: Well, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld still says that dead- enders are among the group, but he makes a point of saying that it includes a much larger circle of people, including a criminal element and the foreign fighters and others as well, and what they are acknowledging is that disaffected Iraqis are joining this group in numbers that are increasing, not decreasing.

DOBBS: Jamie McIntyre, our senior Pentagon correspondent.

In Iraq today, U.S. Marines on the outskirts of Fallujah traded heavy fire with insurgents within the city. American aircraft also dropped bombs on suspected insurgent positions. Fallujah is one of the centers of the insurgency. U.S. and Iraqi troops are expected to launch an offensive to retake the city soon.

There was also fighting between American troops and insurgents near Baqubah, 40 miles from Baghdad. At least one insurgent was killed in the engagement. Also today, kidnapped CARE worker Margaret Hassan pleaded with her captors to spare her life. She made her plea in a videotape aired by the Arab television network Al Jazeera.

On the campaign trail, President Bush today declared Senator Kerry is weak on the war on terror. President Bush said there is no place for confusion in this war and no substitute for victory. President Bush today campaigned in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida -- three critically important states in this election.

John King reports from St. Petersburg, Florida -- John.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): And, Lou, as the president narrows his focus on those geographical prizes in presidential politics, he also is sharpening his focus on what he believes -- or he wants to be anyway -- the major issue themes in the final week or so of the campaign.

Mr. Bush began his day in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. To win that state, the president well aware he needs not only the support of Republicans, but also some of Pennsylvania's conservative Democrats, and one part of the president's appeal in reaching out to those conservative Democrats is to draw a very sharp contrast on the issue of taxes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My opponent has earned -- and I mean earned -- his rank as the most liberal member of the United States Senate. He'll raise your taxes to fund bigger government. I'm going to keep your taxes low.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Values also will be a major theme from the president in the final days, again part of his effort to reach out not only to Republicans, but to conservative Democrats. The president, while in Pennsylvania,, recalling a debate on gay marriage back in the Clinton administration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Senator Kerry was a part of the far left bank, far left minority that voted against that piece of legislation. I will always stand firm to protect the sanctity of marriage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: From Pennsylvania, it was on to Ohio. The major focus at an event in Canton was health care. Again, the president drawing a sharp contrast, saying his opponent Senator Kerry was a big government liberal. The president saying his approach to health care would leave more power in the hands of consumers and taxpayers.

The president, though, even at that event making clear, as he does at every stop, that he believes the most important issue in this campaign is national security and the war on terrorism. The president saying he believes his opponent is not up to the challenge, and that message reinforced in a campaign ad released by the Bush camp today, a controversial ad.

It shows a pack of wolves making their way through the woods while the narrator talks about Senator Kerry's votes, votes the Bush campaign says prove he is weak on national security. The tag line of that ad saying weakness would invite those who threaten America.

Democrats tonight calling that ad a sign of desperation and fearmongering. The Bush campaign says it will be part of the central message from the president in the final 10 days of this campaign -- Lou.

DOBBS: John, thank you very much.

John King, our senior White House correspondent.

Senator Kerry today stepped up his effort to win the women's vote. Senator Kerry declared women should have a fresh start if he is elected president. He promised to lower health-care costs and to make education more affordable.

Kelly Wallace reports from Milwaukee.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Milwaukee, trying to win over women voters with a little Kennedy star power, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, daughter of President John F. Kennedy.

CAROLINE KENNEDY SCHLOSSBERG, KERRY SUPPORTER: My mother always told me that if it were not from Wisconsin, President Kennedy never would have made it to the White House.

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm so honored to be here.

WALLACE Senator Kerry focusing on issues effecting working women, promising to fight for equal pay and a hike in the minimum wage, accusing the Bush White House of being out of touch.

KERRY: No matter how tough it gets, no one in the White House seems to be listening.

WALLACE: It is no accident: Caroline Kennedy today; yesterday alongside Dana Reeve, wife of the late actor Christopher Reeve; a day earlier with one of the most vocal of the September 11 widows who now appears in one of his television ads.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I want to look in my daughter's eyes and know that she is safe.

WALLACE: According to an average of polls released in the last 48 hours, Senator Kerry has a lead of just 7 points over President Bush with women voters, a danger sign for the senator since Democrats traditionally do better with women.

In 2000, Al Gore had an 11-point advantage with women voters, according to exit polls. George W. Bush had the exact same advantage with men. Team Kerry-Edwards trying now to make inroads, especially with married suburban women concerned about security.

KERRY: Our nation has a greater chance of success and we are stronger when we lead strong alliances, not when we go it alone.

WALLACE (on camera): This evening, Senator Kerry heading to Nevada and Colorado. Soon he gets some help getting out the vote. On Sunday, Al Gore will be in Florida. Next week, former President Clinton in Pennsylvania, Florida and New Mexico.

Kelly Wallace, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Tonight, reason for growing concern about the integrity of our voting system, just 11 days before Election Day. Officials have uncovered a range of new problems in several of the close battleground states.

Lisa Sylvester reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's supposed to be one person, one vote. But, in Florida, at least 68,000 residents are also registered to vote in a second state, according to analysis by "The Orlando Sentinel," and 1,600 people may have actually voted twice in the 2000 and 2002 elections. Battleground states face potential problems ranging from fraud to disenfranchisement.

MILES RAPOPORT, DEMOS: Well, my biggest hope is that we'll have a really high turnout, the election will go relatively smoothly, and we'll have a president chosen on November 3. My fear is that none of those things will happen.

SYLVESTER: Along with Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado also have voter registration issues. In Ohio, the number of registered voters surpasses the voting age population in seven counties. People who have left the state are still on the voting rolls. Wisconsin has same-day registration. Milwaukee's mayor is worried there may not be enough ballots. In Colorado, the problem is duplicate registrations.

MARK EDDY, FAIR VOTE COLORADO: We actually have a situation here where the Secretary of State Donetta Davidson is on the rolls twice because she moved between the primary election and the general election. So she's actually on the rolls twice at two different addresses.

SYLVESTER: There are also battles over who should be allowed to vote. In Iowa, the attorney general ruled residents can vote even if they did not check off a box verifying they are at least 18 years and a U.S. citizen. Also being disputed is whether votes should count if someone shows up at the wrong precinct.

With all of the confusion, MIT Professor Ted Selker offers this advice to voters.

TED SELKER, CAL TECH/MIT VOTING PROJECT: Be sure to go to the right place to vote, and, if they can't find your name anyway and you're sure you're registered here, vote on a provisional.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: Provisional ballots will be given to voters whose names do not show up on the records, and the ballots will count only if they are, in fact, registered.

One other bit of advice: Bring identification to the polls on November 2, even if you think you don't need it -- Lou.

DOBBS: And, Lisa, I think we should be straightforward here and tell our audience this has the potential to be just outright ugly, both Democrats and Republicans in their various strongholds being accused of trying to constrain the vote. Do the experts have any counsel on that issue?

SYLVESTER: Well, one of the things that we're seeing across the board is you might have a state like Ohio where the secretary of state is affiliated with a certain party, the attorney general is affiliated with another party.

In the case in Milwaukee, for instance, you have a Democratic mayor, you have a Republican county executive, and you have this infighting that's going on, and really this is a carryover from 2000 where you saw many of these issues being played out on the local level, and I think we're going to continue to see that as we get even closer to the election -- Lou.

DOBBS: Let's hope good sense and decency prevails, as has been our tradition.

Thank you.

Lisa Sylvester from Washington.

Still ahead here, here we go again. Armies of attorneys standing by to challenge election officials. Our voting system and to challenge the results.

And the battle for Iraq. The Pentagon admits the insurgency is much larger, much better funded than originally thought, and the insurgency is growing. I'll be talking with former senior coalition adviser Dan senor next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: President Bush tonight says he supports giving a temporary identification card to immigrant workers in this country. President Bush told the Spanish language television network Univision that the card would give legal status to people who come to this country to work.

The president said, "I think there should be a temporary worker program and a card that helps the workers and employers who want them." The president said the would stop short of providing amnesty.

The president's comments come days after the White House sent a letter to Congress demanding lawmakers drop immigration measures from the intelligence reform bill. Those measures designed to increase the number of border security agents making it easier for the government to deport illegal aliens, in effect raising security at our nation's borders. House and Senate negotiators are still, as we speak -- the conferees are negotiating on the legislation.

And to update you now on a story we reported to you last night. Stan Thompson, the Republican congressional challenger from the State of Iowa, has asked Project USA to take down its billboards that criticize his opponent's position on immigration and that use the term "illegal aliens." Thompson says Congressman Leonard Boswell does not support amnesty and, therefore, the signs are inaccurate.

But Project USA says both candidates are trying to keep immigration out of the race, and not only will the signs remain up, but three more were added last night.

Iowa is one of many states where the presidential election will be watched closely. An army of thousands of attorneys will be monitoring the voting around the country. Both campaigns have amassed huge legal team, and, in some places, the legal battle has already begun -- and in earnest.

Peter Viles reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When this story left off, two former secretaries of state, James Baker for the Republicans, Warren Christopher for the Democrats, were leading rival armies of lawyers that fought from Florida all the way to the Supreme Court.

So nobody should be surprised those armies are back, and they're bigger, lawyers by the thousands. The 2004 election now a legal as well as a political contest.

MINCBERG: We hope to have as many as 25,000 volunteers of which we hope 5,000 will be lawyers and law students at polls predominantly in minority areas on Election Day.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's the fundamental in our democratic system.

VILES: And that group is not even affiliated with the two parties which are already fighting in court. Lawsuits in Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Colorado all focus on the same new issue: What are the exact terms under which a voter who is not found on the list of registered voters can under a new federal law cast a provisional ballot?

In Ohio, Democrats are fighting Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell on the issue.

DAVID SULLIVAN, DEMOCRATIC ATTORNEY, OHIO: We're interested in making sure that it's easy for people to vote. The Republicans seem to be interested in making it harder for people to vote.

VILES: In Florida, the Bush team already claiming Democrats are trying to win the election in court and not at the ballot box.

HAYDEN DEMPSEY, GOP ATTORNEY, FLORIDA: If you look in every single battleground state around this country, you're going to see almost identical litigation, and what's striking is that they've waited until the very eve of election to bring these lawsuits, even though they're challenging statutes that passed, in most cases, years ago.

VILES: Another new area of legal dispute, how to recount votes from electronic machines that leave no paper trail. A key issue guess where? Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VILES: Democrats now say they have put together a legal volunteer team of 10,000 lawyers. Republicans are not saying how many lawyers they have rounded up, but there's no reason to believe that either party is going to be outmanned or outgunned in court -- Lou.

DOBBS: And the total number of attorneys nationwide, Pete, that we expect to be available to the voters Election Day?

VILES: Well, we count 15,000 that we've reported on -- 10,000 for the Democrats, 5,000 for this independent group. Hard to believe the Republicans won't have at least 5,000 ready to go. So 20,000 to start with, and many others who are starting to volunteer now. It's a big legal event. Lawyers don't want to miss out on it, if you can believe that -- Lou.

DOBBS: Imagine that. I assume they won't be paid by the hour.

VILES: Many of them are volunteers.

DOBBS: Oh, I'm certain many.

Pete, thanks.

Peter Viles.

That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight on the highly coveted swing voter. Just how likely is it that your choice for president will change between now and the election? Very, somewhat or not at all? Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou or loudobbs.com. We'll bring you the results later in the broadcast.

Coming up next, stunning news about the safety of the U.S. Coast Guard's French-made helicopters and their American-made engines. Why lives are at risk each time they take off.

And the Arab-American vote. James Zogby and George Salem founded the Arab-American institute together. Now they're divided on their choices for president. They're my guests coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The United States Coast Guard tonight faces a crisis with its new fleet of helicopters. The helicopters manufactured by a French company designated as HH-65, the models. Congress, however, mandated that American engines be used in those French helicopters.

Now that combination of French and American technology has apparently led to dangerous problems, putting the lives of our Coast Guard crews and the people they rescue at risk.

Jeanne Meserve reports from Atlantic City, New Jersey.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hi. Everyone ready?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ready. JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A Coast Guard HH-65 suffers a power loss in one engine. The pilot dumps fuel, even a life raft to make a risky emergency landing on a cutter deck one-third of the size of a basketball court.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nice job. Nice job. Outstanding. All right. Let's shut this thing down.

MESERVE: Jeff Makowski was piloting an HH-65 during the Gulf War when it had the same problem. Given the choice of landing in unfriendly Syria or ditching, he was forced to make a cutter landing at night, and he hasn't forgotten.

MAKOWSKI: When I take off, I'm always thinking where could I land if I lose an engine? Every time, I'm coming in for a landing, all right, where would I go, what would I do in this situation?

MESERVE: Engine power losses in the Coast Guard's HH-65s have been spiraling upward at an alarming rate. They used to average about 10 a year, but climbed to 171 in the last 12 months.

REAR ADMIRAL GARY BLORE, U.S. COAST GUARD: It's capable of flying on one engine. It just can't stay on a hover or do a maneuver on one engine.

MESERVE: Crippling to a helicopter, critical to search and rescue and described as the backbone of the Coast Guard aviation fleet. Because of the engine problem, the choppers are no longer allowed to land in tight corridors like hospital helipads and the distance and duration of their flights has been limited.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It has, you know, effected us actually going out and either saving lives or helping those in great distress.

MESERVE: The problem with the engines and their control system has not been pinpointed, but, among the contributing factors, age, modifications that have increased the chopper's weight and increased flight hours resulting from the Coast Guard's expanded Homeland Security mission.

The American-made engines were put on the French choppers when they were purchased in the early '80s because of Buy America provisions. They are now being replaced with engines from a U.S. subsidiary of the original French manufacturer. Some believe it would be more economical in the long term just to buy new helicopters.

REP. BOB FILNER (D), CALIFORNIA: We're wondering why they have made a decision which just doesn't meet a common-sense test.

MESERVE: Replacing the engines on the fleet of 96 HH-65s will cost about $290 million and take two years, two years when there will be risk to the chopper crews and those who need their help.

Jeanne Meserve, CNN, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

(END VIDEOTAPE) DOBBS: Coming up next, an alarming admission from the Pentagon. The number of insurgents in Iraq is rising and they're better financed. Former senior coalition adviser in Iraq Dan Senor will join me.

And the art of image in a presidential election. President Bush and Senator Kerry going to great lengths to look the part of the model candidate. We'll have that report coming up next.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: The Pentagon now says the number of insurgents in Iraq has risen dramatically to about 12,000, according to this newest estimate. That's more than twice as many as some of the earlier estimates. Military intelligence officers also say the insurgents are now very well funded with money from Saudi Arabia passing into Iraq through Syria.

Joining me now with firsthand experience in Baghdad and Iraq is the former senior coalition adviser in Iraq, Dan Senor.

Dan, good to have you with us.

DAN SENOR, FORMER SENIOR COALITION ADVISER: Good to be with you, Lou.

DOBBS: It is clear things are getting worse in Iraq. The idea that we're raising these estimates on insurgents -- how serious is this and how well equipped are we to meet these new higher estimates of insurgents?

SENOR: We're at a critical stage now between the hand-over of sovereignty last summer and the runup to elections in January.

Just this week, the top U.N. elections adviser in Iraq, Carlos Valenzuela, who has tremendous experience in setting up elections from East Timor and Cambodia and Liberia, has said that the plan for elections is going to move forward in January. He's staffing up to do so, setting up registration cites.

So what the insurgents are doing is organizing as well. They want to do everything they can to thwart these elections, and so while it's hard to get a handle on the actual numbers, what is certain is they are going to try to ramp up and organize in the runup to these elections, and that's what you're seeing now.

DOBBS: One of the things that we have heard over the course of the past six months, going up to the hand-over June 30, we were told that there would be greater violence. Then we were told in the weeks and months after the handover that there would be more violence. And then as we approach elections, we are told again there will be more violence. Those predictions are just about the only ones that have been 100 percent accurate.

What we have seen, no matter how it is explained, rationalized or projected, is a rising level of violence in which we have committed troops now approaching two years. How long are we going to continue to hear these projections and estimates that there will be rising violence and see real results in terms of constraining it?

SENOR: Well, what we need to do to constrain it ultimately is to train up the Iraqi security forces, and those numbers are ramping up. In fact, if you look at recent operations, from Telefar (ph) down to Najaf, up near Samarra, the ratio of Iraqi troops to American troops, the coalition troops in these operations is increasing significantly. In fact, in Samarra recently, you had something like 2,000 Iraqi troops alongside 3,000 Marines. That's making a significant difference. The Iraqis have a better sense of the local culture, the local rhythm of life, the local, regional accents...

DOBBS: Believe me, Dan, I would much prefer that Iraqis fight their battles than U.S. troops, any day.

SENOR: Right, and so we're in a renewed effort to professionalize the Iraqi security forces, and they're making progress. But it's going to take time. I don't want to sound Pollyannish, this isn't going to happen overnight, but the trend line actually is positive.

Yes, there will be more violence. Certainly in the lead-up to the elections, there will be more violence. But you are also seeing the Iraqis playing a more prominent role in these operations, and that is helping to pacify the growth of the insurgency, and ultimately it will stabilize it.

DOBBS: One of the absolute truisms, in counter-insurgency, and you can take part of -- and analyze any insurgency in history, one strict definition of the success of an insurgency is when it grows. This insurgency is growing. Therefore, it's successful. What in the world can this country do now, and what is it going to do to deal with that? Because it is not adequate, it seems to me at least, Dan, to say after the course of 18 months that we're going to train up more Iraqis, when we can't provide basic stability and we are permitting this insurgency to grow.

SENOR: Well, first of all, the key is moving forward with these elections, because that's what the insurgents are trying to stop. And as I said, the U.N. is actually increasingly optimistic on the elections. But look, the key threshold is not just a statistically insignificant growth in the insurgency. The key threshold is whether or not the insurgency taps into national residents. Whether or not millions of Iraqis are rallying around the insurgency. What we have seen throughout history in successful insurgencies is when the mass population rallies around the insurgency. When there's a political constituency for the insurgency, and there is nothing like that right now. Zarqawi or any of the other insurgents spoke out today or -- and instructed millions of Iraqis to storm the streets, it wouldn't happen. You're still talking about a few thousand people.

DOBBS: Well, we're talking about now as many as 20,000, according to the Pentagon's estimate today.

SENOR: Out of a population of 27 million.

DOBBS: No, I understand. The point is, that out of a population of 27 million, there doesn't seem to be a will within that state to help Iraqi intelligence or U.S. intelligence seek out Zarqawi, certainly, nor any of the other groups carrying out the insurgency.

The idea that money is now being funneled, according to intelligence reports, military intelligence reports now, as Jamie McIntyre just reported from the Pentagon, that that money is coming from Saudi Arabia, that it's part of the money deposited by Saddam Hussein in Syria, what is the response, the appropriate response for the United States here?

SENOR: Well, we have to figure out whether or not this is government support, official government support from Syria and Saudi Arabia, and those governments appear to be denying that. Obviously we have to evaluate that.

But we have to recognize that there are organized terrorist infrastructures and financing sources in many of these countries, and that we have to confront and that we have to put pressure on the respective governments to join us in collaborative efforts in confronting in their host countries.

There are professional terrorists and financing pouring into Iraq from all over the region, and they actually share the same goals of domestic insurgents, which is thwarting these elections.

DOBBS: Those goals and whatever the long-range impact is on the governments of the region, I can recall vividly seeing you standing there next to a U.S. general staff officer talking -- and general staff officer often talking about kill or capture, whether referring to Zarqawi or even referring to Muqtada al Sadr at one point. None of which has happened. The fact is, while Americans are dying in this transition to an Iraqi-based security within its -- within their own country, at what point does the United States get tough? Because American lives are at risk. And it's just about time, isn't, to say we're going to back up what we say?

SENOR: Sure. Yeah, but the key here is we have to work with Prime Minister Allawi on this, and he has a strategy. He believes there are basically two rings to the insurgency. There is the inner ring, the nucleus, which is basically Zarqawi, and there is the outer ring, which is not directly involved in the violence, but is harboring it, supporting it, turning a blind eye to it. He believes you can politically chip off the outer ring, bring them into the table, and that will really destabilize the inner ring. And he's taken the lead on that, and we sort of have to work with him. If we are really going to have the Iraqis play a prominent role in this process, we have got to deter to them on some of these things.

DOBBS: Boy, just between you and me, that seems like a lousy one to defer on. Dan, I know it's a complicated issue, a tough one, and everybody appreciates your service. And I understand you may be going back soon.

SENOR: Well, we'll see.

DOBBS: Good to have you here.

SENOR: Good to be with you.

DOBBS: Still ahead here tonight, two prominent Arab-American leaders debate whether President Bush or Senator Kerry should lead this country for the next four years. James Zogby and George Salem are both founders of the Arab-American Institute. They have quite different views on that issue. They're my guests next.

And then, the pied pundit. How a conservative commentator managed to prevail over a pair of liberal pie-wielding attackers? And I did say prevail. That and much more still ahead here tonight. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: My next guests are leaders in the Arab-American community. Together, they co-founded the Arab-American Institute nearly two decades ago. Today, though, they have very different views about who would make the best president. Joining me tonight from Washington, D.C. is James Zogby. He's president of the Arab-American Institute. And he has endorsed Senator John Kerry for president. George Salem is the chairman of the Arab-American Institute, and he supports President George W. Bush. Thank you both for being with us.

GEORGE SALEM, CHAIRMAN, ARAB-AMERICAN INSTITUTE: Thank you.

JAMES ZOGBY, PRESIDENT, ARAB-AMERICAN INSTITUTE: Thanks, Lou.

DOBBS: Let me start with you, Jim. You have been friends, you're obviously colleagues and associates. You run the same organization, representing Arab-American interests. How did you pick Senator Kerry as your choice?

ZOGBY: Well, look, I think this administration has been a disaster. A real failure for the country, and certainly in its policies around the world. And I'm concerned. I'm concerned what another four years of neglect and recklessness would be like. I've never seen a situation for America in the world like the one we have today, and therefore, to me the choice was in fact very easy one. I think that John Kerry provides a very different kind of leadership, a smart leadership that can create alliances and bring people together. And I believe he'll end the civil liberties nightmare that we are seeing at home here as well. And so to me, it was an easy choice.

DOBBS: And, George, was it an easy choice for you to choose exactly in the opposite direction, and that is support President Bush?

SALEM: It was very easy. I mean Jim is a lifelong Democrat, which he failed to mention. I am a lifelong Republican. This president is the first president in the history of the United States to call for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. And more progress is made in second-term administrations on Middle East peace issues than at any other time.

This -- also the economy's rebounding. He has more Arab- Americans in his administration than any other president in the history of the United States. And we have a community that, although divided on a lot of issues, I think likes the tax cuts, likes the economic progress we're making, and is not monolithic, despite the attempts of a lot in the press to make it so.

DOBBS: Well, there are organizations such as CARE, your own organization. It is often, well, let me say, it's nearly always difficult to find a voice for that community in which you say correctly I believe is not monolithic, George. But the role of the Arab-American community, your colleague Jim Zogby appeal basically to the Jewish organizations to support his view as well for the very same reasons you're supporting George Bush, and that is on the issue of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. What is your reaction to Jim's thinking there, George?

SALEM: Well, I think that Arab-Americans have been reaching out to the moderate elements of the American Jewish community for many, many years. We have a very active dialogue ongoing with that community. In fact, no matter who's elected, obviously, I'm very hopeful that it'll be President Bush and working very hard in that regard regard.

There, I believe, will be a coalescence of views between the mainstream Arab-American community and the mainstream Jewish community in favor of a two-state solution along the lines of the Geneva Accords, which both sides attended to endorse and a number of approaches that call for the extremists on both sides, not to define the agenda.

DOBBS: Jim, I've got to give -- we're out of time. You get the last word if you can please hold it to about 20 seconds.

ZOGBY: Let me tell you, this administration has been characterized by so many promises that have never been delivered on. This president has projected vision, not showing you how to get there and he's flip-flopped.

On Iraq, he's had so many plans, none of them work. Israeli- Palestinian peace: Mitchell Plan, Tenet Plan, Zinni Plan, the Road Map, all of them died. He promised to protect civil liberties and he didn't. It's been a disaster. We have to have a change. And I think most Arab-Americans support me in that.

DOBBS: All right, George, since he said most Arab-Americans support him in that, do you have a 15-second summation?

SALEM: Well, I think that you have a growing number of Arab- Americans who do support this president. The majority supported him last time. Rather than have a Kerry administration with a great deal of flip-flopping on every issue of concern to the community, I think that they would rather see the leadership now.

DOBBS: George Salem, thank you very much, Jim Zogby. In just in -- to keep things in context and in perspective, I would, if I may, remind you both that U.S. policies in the Middle East has been a distinct failure for the course of a half century. Thank you both, George Salem.

ZOGBY: No disagreement there.

SALEM: Absolutely in agreement there.

DOBBS: Coming up next, sprint to the finish. President Bush and Senator Kerry are criss-crossing the country. They're battling, obviously, for votes in key states. We'll be joined by our panel of top political journalists.

And "Heroes," the inspiring story tonight of an army combat engineer thankful to be alive after his life changed forever in Iraq. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Journalist Ann Coulter received more than a standing ovation in a speech in Arizona last night. Two men who disagree with Coulter's conservative views ran on stage at the University of Arizona and they hurled cream pies at her. But they were distinctly ineffective.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANN COULTER, COLUMNIST: ...to the point that I make in my book is, you take away the terrorism, and liberals would hate Muslims.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: I don't care whether you are a conservative, liberal, like Ann Coulter or you don't, you have to give her a lot of credit. She ducked those pies absolutely unscathed. Great reaction, and that at the University of Arizona police doing well, too. Both of the young gentlemen in custody.

Joining me now, 3 of the country's top journalists. From Washington, D.C., Roger Simon "U.S. News & World Report." Karen Tumulty "Time" magazine and here in New York, Mark Warren from "Esquire" magazine.

Well, now we've got Gore going to Florida. We have got Bill Clinton, Mark, in Philadelphia Monday. They're rolling out the big guns. Is this smart strategy on the part of the Kerry campaign, or is it desperation?

MARK WARREN, ESQUIRE: Oh, I think it makes perfect sense for the last week to bring out the stars of the party. President Clinton mobilizes the base like nobody's business. And he's still one of the masters of the game, so it makes a lot of sense.

DOBBS: Do you agree, Roger Simon?

ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": Yes, it does make sense. These are the stars of party. And these are true celebrities. And the Republicans are going to bring out Arnold Schwarzenegger for George Bush.

I don't think it moves a huge numbers of votes, but it gets people energized a little bit, gets people working on election day. And it might get out a little bit extra of the vote.

DOBBS: Karen, wolves in the woods, the Bush ad, anti-Kerry ad. Are these ads effective? They say they're going to run them for a while.

KAREN TUMULTY, TIME: Well, they say that they've had this ad in the can for months, and have been saving it to the end, because it is in fact so effective. To me it looks a little bit like the "Blair Witch Project."

But it's an echo of a very effective ad that Ronald Reagan used in 1984, where it was a bear in the woods at that point. But there is one really important difference here, and that is, the narrator's voice is a female voice and not a male voice, and I think that tells you a lot about the political dynamic this year.

WARREN: It's a little reminiscent of the daisy ad as well, I think, which only ran once. And it is also reflective of a change in the campaign strategy of the Bush campaign this week, with the president's speech on Monday in New Jersey, in which he went from saying essentially saying Senator Kerry doesn't understand the threat posed by terrorism to saying he doesn't have the will to defend the country. And then seconded by Vice President Cheney, warning of nukes in our cities. It's a very risky strategy. In that...

DOBBS: For whom?

WARREN: For the Bush campaign I think.

DOBBS: Oh, the scare tactics -- you are saying it's riskier for them?

WARREN: Well, I think they are violating a cardinal rule of American presidential politics here. And that is, to be re-elected you've got to be an optimist, best exemplified by Reagan and Clinton. A doomsday strategy bears very little resemblance to Reagan's morning to America, or Clinton's bridge to the 21st Century. It doesn't describe a very happy ending. So extremely risky I think.

DOBBS: Do you agree, Roger?

SIMON: No, fear works. I think George Bush would respond that he is an optimist. And in his speeches, he has a line about "we have climbed the mountain and now we're looking down on the valley," the valley of peace or whatever the heck it is, and he always tries to include an optimistic vision. But there is no doubt that both campaigns think fear is going to turn this election. The Democrats have responded to the wolf ad with their own animal ad, this one featuring birds. It features an eagle and an ostrich with its head in the sand and says, in these tough times, don't we need to be eagles again? So it's the battle of the animals at the end of this election. That's what we've come to.

DOBBS: You know, when I saw that, I couldn't help to think of that old expression, it's tough to soar with eagle when you're surrounded by turkeys, but I don't know why that occurred to me.

Karen, when last you and I were speaking, yesterday evening, we were talking about, in effect, the women's vote. We were talking about stem cell research, and we had a lot of viewers write in about that discussion. It's obviously -- touches a nerve. Senator Kerry, is he arguably, and I would like to hear your judgment, doing well at this point with women voters, or not so well? Because we're hearing both claims.

TUMULTY: Well, at least the polling that I have heard about would suggest that swing women voters at this point, those late deciders, that this is a strong issue for Senator Kerry with those voters. Conservative women, pro-life women, of course, were probably never going to vote for him anyway.

DOBBS: And Roger, men supporting George W. Bush, women supporting John Kerry. Is this whole election about gender?

SIMON: Well, it's been this way for many cycles. The Democrats have been called the mommy party, and the Republicans the daddy party for a long time now. Democrats tend to stress social issues -- education and welfare, Social Security. Republicans tend to stress national defense and crime, in those cycles with crime is a big deal. And they're somewhat divided along gender lines, but women are, as Karen indicated, is a very important -- it's not a minority block. It's a majority block in this country. More women vote than men, and if you can just move women a few percentage points, you really can improve your chances to win.

DOBBS: So when Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor Schwarzenegger talks about girlie men, is this an attempt to disenfranchise part of the vote?

WARREN: Well, good Lord, why do you think you saw Senator Kerry with a shotgun yesterday? I mean, for a generation, the Democrats have been losing -- at the presidential level, have been losing white men. That's what this is about.

TUMULTY: If I could add, in our latest "Time" magazine poll, which was just released in the last couple of hours, for the second week in a row, Senator Kerry is now running even with George Bush among women, while George Bush has a 15-point lead among men. This is a real problem for the Kerry campaign, if they cannot get this corrected in the last 10 or 11 days of the campaign.

DOBBS: And in the last election, did not Al Gore do just as well with women as George Bush did with men?

TUMULTY: Exactly. It was -- he won women by 11 percentage points. George Bush won men by 11 percentage points.

DOBBS: And we're watching the polls, and let the record show that Karen Tumulty brought up polls before I did.

SIMON: Well, since...

DOBBS: I'm sorry, Roger?

SIMON: Since we've reached the subject, I have to say the Associated Press poll shows John Kerry doing better with women by 1 percentage point than Al Gore did with women, and one thing you mentioned, stem cell research. We talked about it a lot yesterday, and Karen was absolutely correct, that it plays well with women of higher education. With women of lower education, however, minimum wage plays very well. Women are disproportionately minimum wage workers, and John Kerry advocates raising the minimum wage to $7 from the current $5.15.

DOBBS: Mark, if you could add something in 10 to 11 seconds, you get the last word.

WARREN: Well, I mean, I think that's why Senator Kerry has all of the celebrity women out for him this weekend, to try to, you know, do as well as Al Gore did four years ago, and I think he probably will end up doing about as well.

DOBBS: Mark Warren, Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, you and I will continue our discussion on embryonic stem cells throughout the next week. Have a great weekend. Thanks for being here, everybody.

TUMULTY: Thank you.

SIMON: Thank you.

DOBBS: Now, "Heroes." Our salute to the men and women who are defending each and every one of us. Tonight, the remarkable story of Erick Castro. He says he has no regrets about his tour of duty in Iraq, despite a devastating loss in combat. Casey Wian has his story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Erick Castro joined the military at 19, to see the world. In 2003, he was deployed to Iraq as an Army combat engineer. He was there six months when his life changed forever.

Riding in an armored personnel carrier, his squad came under attack. A single shot from a handheld Soviet anti-tank weapon took a horrific toll.

SGT. ERICK CASTRO (RET.), U.S. ARMY: It hits the vehicle, it explodes on impact. Creates a small hole, and the titanium rod goes through the whole vehicle. And it hit three guys right in the femur, right in the leg. So it hit us and it took the legs right off.

WIAN: Three soldiers lost their legs simultaneously.

Castro remembers little until he woke up a week later at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C.

CASTRO: First couple of days, it's still depressing. It's like, oh, I lost a leg, I'm useless, I'm not going to be able to do anything with the rest of my life. I'm only 24.

WIAN: But as time went by, he learned to live as an amputee.

CASTRO: Within three months, I was completely rehabed. I was now starting to walk on the prosthetic, on the C-leg, and then within six months I was walking on the C-leg, with just one crutch, getting around, doing everything on my own.

WIAN: While he awaits adjustments to his prosthetic leg, Castro cheerfully gets around on crutches, appreciating just how lucky he is to be alive.

CASTRO: If it was Vietnam or some other war, I think I would have been dead.

WIAN: Castro says in spite of his injury, he has no regrets.

CASTRO: The military showed me so much things that a guy from Santa Ana would never do or see. I've been in Paris twice. I lived in Germany for two years. I have been to Barcelona, I've been to (UNINTELLIGIBLE). I have been to several states -- several other states besides California. Some people don't get out of Orange County.

WIAN: Now Castro is studying to become a mechanical engineer. Casey Wian, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Erick Castro.

Still ahead here, the results of our poll and we'll tell you what's ahead come Monday. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: No wishy-washy audience here. The results of our poll tonight. Only 1 percent of you say it is very likely your choice for president will change before this election. Two percent say somewhat likely; 97 percent of you know exactly what you're doing come November 2nd.

Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us Monday. Columnist Peggy Noonan will be here. I'll be joined by Democratic strategist Kiki McLean. And the battle for Congress: The chairs of the Republican and Democratic Congressional Committees join me.

For all of us here, we wish you a very pleasant weekend, and good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 22, 2004 - 18:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, the Pentagon admits the Iraq insurgency has grown much larger and stronger than previously reported. Former coalition senior adviser Dan Senor is my guest. I'll ask him what happened to those bitter-enders and the dead-enders the Pentagon used to talk about.
President Bush and Senator Kerry are battling for votes in key swing states. So are armies of attorneys. Their fears of chaos on election night. Much of that chaos from those very same attorneys.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ELIOTT MINCBERG, PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAY FOUNDATION: We hope to have as many as 25,000 volunteers of which we hope 5,000 will be lawyers and law students.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Tonight, Democracy at Risk, our special report.

Shocking concerns tonight about the safety of the Coast Guard's French-made helicopters and their American engines.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CMDR. JEFF MAKOWSKI, U.S. COAST GUARD: I'm always thinking where could I land if I lose an engine?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: And Arab-Americans and this presidential election, a community divided. I'll talk with two leading Arab-Americans tonight, one who has endorsed the Senator Kerry, the other supporting President Bush.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Friday, October 22. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening.

The Pentagon today admitted the number of insurgents in Iraq is much higher than previously estimated. Military intelligence officers say there are as many as 12,000 insurgents now in Iraq. Earlier estimates put the figure as low as 5,000.

The Pentagon also says the insurgency is well financed, some of that money coming from Saudi Arabia, supposedly a close ally of this country.

Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A new internal Pentagon analysis offers a sobering assessment of what the U.S. is up against in Iraq: an insurgency that is growing fueled by an almost unlimited pool of money funneled through Syria.

A U.S. intelligence official tells CNN the insurgency, thought to number between 5,000 and 7,000 months ago, is now estimated to include 12,000 fighters from 50 different cells. The result has been a sharp increase in attacks, as many as 90 a day at times, and more high- profile kidnappings, such as the director of CARE International's Iraq office.

MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: We are not winning the war right now. We may turn things around. We may be preparing the Iraqi security forces thoroughly so they can take up the war effort and allow us to gradually withdraw in a year or two, but, right now, we're not winning.

MCINTYRE: The Pentagon continues to insist the increase in violence is to be expected as Iraqi elections draw near and rejects any suggestion Iraq is becoming a quagmire.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: And there's some very bad people who want to take that country back to a dark place, and I don't call that a quagmire.

MCINTYRE: The Pentagon has said the insurgents were getting money from both Syria and Iran, but a new DIA report estimates that roughly half of the $1 billion Saddam Hussein stashed in Syrian banks before the war, some $500 million, is a prime funding source for the militants, and it believes millions more coming from wealthy Saudis and Islamic charities, who also funnel money through Syria, a charge the Saudi government called irresponsible and factually incorrect, insisting it has tightened financial controls to ensure no money goes to terrorism.

There's also evidence that insurgents have had some success infiltrating the new Iraqi security forces. For example, Tuesday's mortar attack on an Iraqi National Guard base north of Baghdad seemed to be based on inside information about when the troops would be gathering for a ceremony.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: As little as six months ago, officials here were downplaying some of their own intelligence which suggested the insurgents had more support than the Pentagon was acknowledging. These days, no one is disputing that the insurgency has turned out to be bigger and better funded than anyone expected -- Lou.

DOBBS: Jamie, let's -- just bald-faced -- how are we to believe that this intelligence is anymore reliable than the previous intelligence?

MCINTYRE: Well, it is intelligence, and it's based on estimates and analysis done by the Defense Intelligence Agency. So it is subject to question. The numbers, for instance, are just estimates based on the best information they have.

But what's clear here is that they're no longer trying to say that it's an isolated view that this insurgency is growing. That's now become the consensus opinion.

DOBBS: And the Pentagon's has given up the language of bitter- enders and dead-enders to which it adhered for so long?

MCINTYRE: Well, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld still says that dead- enders are among the group, but he makes a point of saying that it includes a much larger circle of people, including a criminal element and the foreign fighters and others as well, and what they are acknowledging is that disaffected Iraqis are joining this group in numbers that are increasing, not decreasing.

DOBBS: Jamie McIntyre, our senior Pentagon correspondent.

In Iraq today, U.S. Marines on the outskirts of Fallujah traded heavy fire with insurgents within the city. American aircraft also dropped bombs on suspected insurgent positions. Fallujah is one of the centers of the insurgency. U.S. and Iraqi troops are expected to launch an offensive to retake the city soon.

There was also fighting between American troops and insurgents near Baqubah, 40 miles from Baghdad. At least one insurgent was killed in the engagement. Also today, kidnapped CARE worker Margaret Hassan pleaded with her captors to spare her life. She made her plea in a videotape aired by the Arab television network Al Jazeera.

On the campaign trail, President Bush today declared Senator Kerry is weak on the war on terror. President Bush said there is no place for confusion in this war and no substitute for victory. President Bush today campaigned in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida -- three critically important states in this election.

John King reports from St. Petersburg, Florida -- John.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): And, Lou, as the president narrows his focus on those geographical prizes in presidential politics, he also is sharpening his focus on what he believes -- or he wants to be anyway -- the major issue themes in the final week or so of the campaign.

Mr. Bush began his day in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. To win that state, the president well aware he needs not only the support of Republicans, but also some of Pennsylvania's conservative Democrats, and one part of the president's appeal in reaching out to those conservative Democrats is to draw a very sharp contrast on the issue of taxes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My opponent has earned -- and I mean earned -- his rank as the most liberal member of the United States Senate. He'll raise your taxes to fund bigger government. I'm going to keep your taxes low.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Values also will be a major theme from the president in the final days, again part of his effort to reach out not only to Republicans, but to conservative Democrats. The president, while in Pennsylvania,, recalling a debate on gay marriage back in the Clinton administration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Senator Kerry was a part of the far left bank, far left minority that voted against that piece of legislation. I will always stand firm to protect the sanctity of marriage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: From Pennsylvania, it was on to Ohio. The major focus at an event in Canton was health care. Again, the president drawing a sharp contrast, saying his opponent Senator Kerry was a big government liberal. The president saying his approach to health care would leave more power in the hands of consumers and taxpayers.

The president, though, even at that event making clear, as he does at every stop, that he believes the most important issue in this campaign is national security and the war on terrorism. The president saying he believes his opponent is not up to the challenge, and that message reinforced in a campaign ad released by the Bush camp today, a controversial ad.

It shows a pack of wolves making their way through the woods while the narrator talks about Senator Kerry's votes, votes the Bush campaign says prove he is weak on national security. The tag line of that ad saying weakness would invite those who threaten America.

Democrats tonight calling that ad a sign of desperation and fearmongering. The Bush campaign says it will be part of the central message from the president in the final 10 days of this campaign -- Lou.

DOBBS: John, thank you very much.

John King, our senior White House correspondent.

Senator Kerry today stepped up his effort to win the women's vote. Senator Kerry declared women should have a fresh start if he is elected president. He promised to lower health-care costs and to make education more affordable.

Kelly Wallace reports from Milwaukee.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Milwaukee, trying to win over women voters with a little Kennedy star power, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, daughter of President John F. Kennedy.

CAROLINE KENNEDY SCHLOSSBERG, KERRY SUPPORTER: My mother always told me that if it were not from Wisconsin, President Kennedy never would have made it to the White House.

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm so honored to be here.

WALLACE Senator Kerry focusing on issues effecting working women, promising to fight for equal pay and a hike in the minimum wage, accusing the Bush White House of being out of touch.

KERRY: No matter how tough it gets, no one in the White House seems to be listening.

WALLACE: It is no accident: Caroline Kennedy today; yesterday alongside Dana Reeve, wife of the late actor Christopher Reeve; a day earlier with one of the most vocal of the September 11 widows who now appears in one of his television ads.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I want to look in my daughter's eyes and know that she is safe.

WALLACE: According to an average of polls released in the last 48 hours, Senator Kerry has a lead of just 7 points over President Bush with women voters, a danger sign for the senator since Democrats traditionally do better with women.

In 2000, Al Gore had an 11-point advantage with women voters, according to exit polls. George W. Bush had the exact same advantage with men. Team Kerry-Edwards trying now to make inroads, especially with married suburban women concerned about security.

KERRY: Our nation has a greater chance of success and we are stronger when we lead strong alliances, not when we go it alone.

WALLACE (on camera): This evening, Senator Kerry heading to Nevada and Colorado. Soon he gets some help getting out the vote. On Sunday, Al Gore will be in Florida. Next week, former President Clinton in Pennsylvania, Florida and New Mexico.

Kelly Wallace, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Tonight, reason for growing concern about the integrity of our voting system, just 11 days before Election Day. Officials have uncovered a range of new problems in several of the close battleground states.

Lisa Sylvester reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's supposed to be one person, one vote. But, in Florida, at least 68,000 residents are also registered to vote in a second state, according to analysis by "The Orlando Sentinel," and 1,600 people may have actually voted twice in the 2000 and 2002 elections. Battleground states face potential problems ranging from fraud to disenfranchisement.

MILES RAPOPORT, DEMOS: Well, my biggest hope is that we'll have a really high turnout, the election will go relatively smoothly, and we'll have a president chosen on November 3. My fear is that none of those things will happen.

SYLVESTER: Along with Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado also have voter registration issues. In Ohio, the number of registered voters surpasses the voting age population in seven counties. People who have left the state are still on the voting rolls. Wisconsin has same-day registration. Milwaukee's mayor is worried there may not be enough ballots. In Colorado, the problem is duplicate registrations.

MARK EDDY, FAIR VOTE COLORADO: We actually have a situation here where the Secretary of State Donetta Davidson is on the rolls twice because she moved between the primary election and the general election. So she's actually on the rolls twice at two different addresses.

SYLVESTER: There are also battles over who should be allowed to vote. In Iowa, the attorney general ruled residents can vote even if they did not check off a box verifying they are at least 18 years and a U.S. citizen. Also being disputed is whether votes should count if someone shows up at the wrong precinct.

With all of the confusion, MIT Professor Ted Selker offers this advice to voters.

TED SELKER, CAL TECH/MIT VOTING PROJECT: Be sure to go to the right place to vote, and, if they can't find your name anyway and you're sure you're registered here, vote on a provisional.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: Provisional ballots will be given to voters whose names do not show up on the records, and the ballots will count only if they are, in fact, registered.

One other bit of advice: Bring identification to the polls on November 2, even if you think you don't need it -- Lou.

DOBBS: And, Lisa, I think we should be straightforward here and tell our audience this has the potential to be just outright ugly, both Democrats and Republicans in their various strongholds being accused of trying to constrain the vote. Do the experts have any counsel on that issue?

SYLVESTER: Well, one of the things that we're seeing across the board is you might have a state like Ohio where the secretary of state is affiliated with a certain party, the attorney general is affiliated with another party.

In the case in Milwaukee, for instance, you have a Democratic mayor, you have a Republican county executive, and you have this infighting that's going on, and really this is a carryover from 2000 where you saw many of these issues being played out on the local level, and I think we're going to continue to see that as we get even closer to the election -- Lou.

DOBBS: Let's hope good sense and decency prevails, as has been our tradition.

Thank you.

Lisa Sylvester from Washington.

Still ahead here, here we go again. Armies of attorneys standing by to challenge election officials. Our voting system and to challenge the results.

And the battle for Iraq. The Pentagon admits the insurgency is much larger, much better funded than originally thought, and the insurgency is growing. I'll be talking with former senior coalition adviser Dan senor next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: President Bush tonight says he supports giving a temporary identification card to immigrant workers in this country. President Bush told the Spanish language television network Univision that the card would give legal status to people who come to this country to work.

The president said, "I think there should be a temporary worker program and a card that helps the workers and employers who want them." The president said the would stop short of providing amnesty.

The president's comments come days after the White House sent a letter to Congress demanding lawmakers drop immigration measures from the intelligence reform bill. Those measures designed to increase the number of border security agents making it easier for the government to deport illegal aliens, in effect raising security at our nation's borders. House and Senate negotiators are still, as we speak -- the conferees are negotiating on the legislation.

And to update you now on a story we reported to you last night. Stan Thompson, the Republican congressional challenger from the State of Iowa, has asked Project USA to take down its billboards that criticize his opponent's position on immigration and that use the term "illegal aliens." Thompson says Congressman Leonard Boswell does not support amnesty and, therefore, the signs are inaccurate.

But Project USA says both candidates are trying to keep immigration out of the race, and not only will the signs remain up, but three more were added last night.

Iowa is one of many states where the presidential election will be watched closely. An army of thousands of attorneys will be monitoring the voting around the country. Both campaigns have amassed huge legal team, and, in some places, the legal battle has already begun -- and in earnest.

Peter Viles reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When this story left off, two former secretaries of state, James Baker for the Republicans, Warren Christopher for the Democrats, were leading rival armies of lawyers that fought from Florida all the way to the Supreme Court.

So nobody should be surprised those armies are back, and they're bigger, lawyers by the thousands. The 2004 election now a legal as well as a political contest.

MINCBERG: We hope to have as many as 25,000 volunteers of which we hope 5,000 will be lawyers and law students at polls predominantly in minority areas on Election Day.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's the fundamental in our democratic system.

VILES: And that group is not even affiliated with the two parties which are already fighting in court. Lawsuits in Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Colorado all focus on the same new issue: What are the exact terms under which a voter who is not found on the list of registered voters can under a new federal law cast a provisional ballot?

In Ohio, Democrats are fighting Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell on the issue.

DAVID SULLIVAN, DEMOCRATIC ATTORNEY, OHIO: We're interested in making sure that it's easy for people to vote. The Republicans seem to be interested in making it harder for people to vote.

VILES: In Florida, the Bush team already claiming Democrats are trying to win the election in court and not at the ballot box.

HAYDEN DEMPSEY, GOP ATTORNEY, FLORIDA: If you look in every single battleground state around this country, you're going to see almost identical litigation, and what's striking is that they've waited until the very eve of election to bring these lawsuits, even though they're challenging statutes that passed, in most cases, years ago.

VILES: Another new area of legal dispute, how to recount votes from electronic machines that leave no paper trail. A key issue guess where? Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VILES: Democrats now say they have put together a legal volunteer team of 10,000 lawyers. Republicans are not saying how many lawyers they have rounded up, but there's no reason to believe that either party is going to be outmanned or outgunned in court -- Lou.

DOBBS: And the total number of attorneys nationwide, Pete, that we expect to be available to the voters Election Day?

VILES: Well, we count 15,000 that we've reported on -- 10,000 for the Democrats, 5,000 for this independent group. Hard to believe the Republicans won't have at least 5,000 ready to go. So 20,000 to start with, and many others who are starting to volunteer now. It's a big legal event. Lawyers don't want to miss out on it, if you can believe that -- Lou.

DOBBS: Imagine that. I assume they won't be paid by the hour.

VILES: Many of them are volunteers.

DOBBS: Oh, I'm certain many.

Pete, thanks.

Peter Viles.

That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight on the highly coveted swing voter. Just how likely is it that your choice for president will change between now and the election? Very, somewhat or not at all? Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou or loudobbs.com. We'll bring you the results later in the broadcast.

Coming up next, stunning news about the safety of the U.S. Coast Guard's French-made helicopters and their American-made engines. Why lives are at risk each time they take off.

And the Arab-American vote. James Zogby and George Salem founded the Arab-American institute together. Now they're divided on their choices for president. They're my guests coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The United States Coast Guard tonight faces a crisis with its new fleet of helicopters. The helicopters manufactured by a French company designated as HH-65, the models. Congress, however, mandated that American engines be used in those French helicopters.

Now that combination of French and American technology has apparently led to dangerous problems, putting the lives of our Coast Guard crews and the people they rescue at risk.

Jeanne Meserve reports from Atlantic City, New Jersey.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hi. Everyone ready?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ready. JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A Coast Guard HH-65 suffers a power loss in one engine. The pilot dumps fuel, even a life raft to make a risky emergency landing on a cutter deck one-third of the size of a basketball court.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nice job. Nice job. Outstanding. All right. Let's shut this thing down.

MESERVE: Jeff Makowski was piloting an HH-65 during the Gulf War when it had the same problem. Given the choice of landing in unfriendly Syria or ditching, he was forced to make a cutter landing at night, and he hasn't forgotten.

MAKOWSKI: When I take off, I'm always thinking where could I land if I lose an engine? Every time, I'm coming in for a landing, all right, where would I go, what would I do in this situation?

MESERVE: Engine power losses in the Coast Guard's HH-65s have been spiraling upward at an alarming rate. They used to average about 10 a year, but climbed to 171 in the last 12 months.

REAR ADMIRAL GARY BLORE, U.S. COAST GUARD: It's capable of flying on one engine. It just can't stay on a hover or do a maneuver on one engine.

MESERVE: Crippling to a helicopter, critical to search and rescue and described as the backbone of the Coast Guard aviation fleet. Because of the engine problem, the choppers are no longer allowed to land in tight corridors like hospital helipads and the distance and duration of their flights has been limited.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It has, you know, effected us actually going out and either saving lives or helping those in great distress.

MESERVE: The problem with the engines and their control system has not been pinpointed, but, among the contributing factors, age, modifications that have increased the chopper's weight and increased flight hours resulting from the Coast Guard's expanded Homeland Security mission.

The American-made engines were put on the French choppers when they were purchased in the early '80s because of Buy America provisions. They are now being replaced with engines from a U.S. subsidiary of the original French manufacturer. Some believe it would be more economical in the long term just to buy new helicopters.

REP. BOB FILNER (D), CALIFORNIA: We're wondering why they have made a decision which just doesn't meet a common-sense test.

MESERVE: Replacing the engines on the fleet of 96 HH-65s will cost about $290 million and take two years, two years when there will be risk to the chopper crews and those who need their help.

Jeanne Meserve, CNN, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

(END VIDEOTAPE) DOBBS: Coming up next, an alarming admission from the Pentagon. The number of insurgents in Iraq is rising and they're better financed. Former senior coalition adviser in Iraq Dan Senor will join me.

And the art of image in a presidential election. President Bush and Senator Kerry going to great lengths to look the part of the model candidate. We'll have that report coming up next.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: The Pentagon now says the number of insurgents in Iraq has risen dramatically to about 12,000, according to this newest estimate. That's more than twice as many as some of the earlier estimates. Military intelligence officers also say the insurgents are now very well funded with money from Saudi Arabia passing into Iraq through Syria.

Joining me now with firsthand experience in Baghdad and Iraq is the former senior coalition adviser in Iraq, Dan Senor.

Dan, good to have you with us.

DAN SENOR, FORMER SENIOR COALITION ADVISER: Good to be with you, Lou.

DOBBS: It is clear things are getting worse in Iraq. The idea that we're raising these estimates on insurgents -- how serious is this and how well equipped are we to meet these new higher estimates of insurgents?

SENOR: We're at a critical stage now between the hand-over of sovereignty last summer and the runup to elections in January.

Just this week, the top U.N. elections adviser in Iraq, Carlos Valenzuela, who has tremendous experience in setting up elections from East Timor and Cambodia and Liberia, has said that the plan for elections is going to move forward in January. He's staffing up to do so, setting up registration cites.

So what the insurgents are doing is organizing as well. They want to do everything they can to thwart these elections, and so while it's hard to get a handle on the actual numbers, what is certain is they are going to try to ramp up and organize in the runup to these elections, and that's what you're seeing now.

DOBBS: One of the things that we have heard over the course of the past six months, going up to the hand-over June 30, we were told that there would be greater violence. Then we were told in the weeks and months after the handover that there would be more violence. And then as we approach elections, we are told again there will be more violence. Those predictions are just about the only ones that have been 100 percent accurate.

What we have seen, no matter how it is explained, rationalized or projected, is a rising level of violence in which we have committed troops now approaching two years. How long are we going to continue to hear these projections and estimates that there will be rising violence and see real results in terms of constraining it?

SENOR: Well, what we need to do to constrain it ultimately is to train up the Iraqi security forces, and those numbers are ramping up. In fact, if you look at recent operations, from Telefar (ph) down to Najaf, up near Samarra, the ratio of Iraqi troops to American troops, the coalition troops in these operations is increasing significantly. In fact, in Samarra recently, you had something like 2,000 Iraqi troops alongside 3,000 Marines. That's making a significant difference. The Iraqis have a better sense of the local culture, the local rhythm of life, the local, regional accents...

DOBBS: Believe me, Dan, I would much prefer that Iraqis fight their battles than U.S. troops, any day.

SENOR: Right, and so we're in a renewed effort to professionalize the Iraqi security forces, and they're making progress. But it's going to take time. I don't want to sound Pollyannish, this isn't going to happen overnight, but the trend line actually is positive.

Yes, there will be more violence. Certainly in the lead-up to the elections, there will be more violence. But you are also seeing the Iraqis playing a more prominent role in these operations, and that is helping to pacify the growth of the insurgency, and ultimately it will stabilize it.

DOBBS: One of the absolute truisms, in counter-insurgency, and you can take part of -- and analyze any insurgency in history, one strict definition of the success of an insurgency is when it grows. This insurgency is growing. Therefore, it's successful. What in the world can this country do now, and what is it going to do to deal with that? Because it is not adequate, it seems to me at least, Dan, to say after the course of 18 months that we're going to train up more Iraqis, when we can't provide basic stability and we are permitting this insurgency to grow.

SENOR: Well, first of all, the key is moving forward with these elections, because that's what the insurgents are trying to stop. And as I said, the U.N. is actually increasingly optimistic on the elections. But look, the key threshold is not just a statistically insignificant growth in the insurgency. The key threshold is whether or not the insurgency taps into national residents. Whether or not millions of Iraqis are rallying around the insurgency. What we have seen throughout history in successful insurgencies is when the mass population rallies around the insurgency. When there's a political constituency for the insurgency, and there is nothing like that right now. Zarqawi or any of the other insurgents spoke out today or -- and instructed millions of Iraqis to storm the streets, it wouldn't happen. You're still talking about a few thousand people.

DOBBS: Well, we're talking about now as many as 20,000, according to the Pentagon's estimate today.

SENOR: Out of a population of 27 million.

DOBBS: No, I understand. The point is, that out of a population of 27 million, there doesn't seem to be a will within that state to help Iraqi intelligence or U.S. intelligence seek out Zarqawi, certainly, nor any of the other groups carrying out the insurgency.

The idea that money is now being funneled, according to intelligence reports, military intelligence reports now, as Jamie McIntyre just reported from the Pentagon, that that money is coming from Saudi Arabia, that it's part of the money deposited by Saddam Hussein in Syria, what is the response, the appropriate response for the United States here?

SENOR: Well, we have to figure out whether or not this is government support, official government support from Syria and Saudi Arabia, and those governments appear to be denying that. Obviously we have to evaluate that.

But we have to recognize that there are organized terrorist infrastructures and financing sources in many of these countries, and that we have to confront and that we have to put pressure on the respective governments to join us in collaborative efforts in confronting in their host countries.

There are professional terrorists and financing pouring into Iraq from all over the region, and they actually share the same goals of domestic insurgents, which is thwarting these elections.

DOBBS: Those goals and whatever the long-range impact is on the governments of the region, I can recall vividly seeing you standing there next to a U.S. general staff officer talking -- and general staff officer often talking about kill or capture, whether referring to Zarqawi or even referring to Muqtada al Sadr at one point. None of which has happened. The fact is, while Americans are dying in this transition to an Iraqi-based security within its -- within their own country, at what point does the United States get tough? Because American lives are at risk. And it's just about time, isn't, to say we're going to back up what we say?

SENOR: Sure. Yeah, but the key here is we have to work with Prime Minister Allawi on this, and he has a strategy. He believes there are basically two rings to the insurgency. There is the inner ring, the nucleus, which is basically Zarqawi, and there is the outer ring, which is not directly involved in the violence, but is harboring it, supporting it, turning a blind eye to it. He believes you can politically chip off the outer ring, bring them into the table, and that will really destabilize the inner ring. And he's taken the lead on that, and we sort of have to work with him. If we are really going to have the Iraqis play a prominent role in this process, we have got to deter to them on some of these things.

DOBBS: Boy, just between you and me, that seems like a lousy one to defer on. Dan, I know it's a complicated issue, a tough one, and everybody appreciates your service. And I understand you may be going back soon.

SENOR: Well, we'll see.

DOBBS: Good to have you here.

SENOR: Good to be with you.

DOBBS: Still ahead here tonight, two prominent Arab-American leaders debate whether President Bush or Senator Kerry should lead this country for the next four years. James Zogby and George Salem are both founders of the Arab-American Institute. They have quite different views on that issue. They're my guests next.

And then, the pied pundit. How a conservative commentator managed to prevail over a pair of liberal pie-wielding attackers? And I did say prevail. That and much more still ahead here tonight. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: My next guests are leaders in the Arab-American community. Together, they co-founded the Arab-American Institute nearly two decades ago. Today, though, they have very different views about who would make the best president. Joining me tonight from Washington, D.C. is James Zogby. He's president of the Arab-American Institute. And he has endorsed Senator John Kerry for president. George Salem is the chairman of the Arab-American Institute, and he supports President George W. Bush. Thank you both for being with us.

GEORGE SALEM, CHAIRMAN, ARAB-AMERICAN INSTITUTE: Thank you.

JAMES ZOGBY, PRESIDENT, ARAB-AMERICAN INSTITUTE: Thanks, Lou.

DOBBS: Let me start with you, Jim. You have been friends, you're obviously colleagues and associates. You run the same organization, representing Arab-American interests. How did you pick Senator Kerry as your choice?

ZOGBY: Well, look, I think this administration has been a disaster. A real failure for the country, and certainly in its policies around the world. And I'm concerned. I'm concerned what another four years of neglect and recklessness would be like. I've never seen a situation for America in the world like the one we have today, and therefore, to me the choice was in fact very easy one. I think that John Kerry provides a very different kind of leadership, a smart leadership that can create alliances and bring people together. And I believe he'll end the civil liberties nightmare that we are seeing at home here as well. And so to me, it was an easy choice.

DOBBS: And, George, was it an easy choice for you to choose exactly in the opposite direction, and that is support President Bush?

SALEM: It was very easy. I mean Jim is a lifelong Democrat, which he failed to mention. I am a lifelong Republican. This president is the first president in the history of the United States to call for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. And more progress is made in second-term administrations on Middle East peace issues than at any other time.

This -- also the economy's rebounding. He has more Arab- Americans in his administration than any other president in the history of the United States. And we have a community that, although divided on a lot of issues, I think likes the tax cuts, likes the economic progress we're making, and is not monolithic, despite the attempts of a lot in the press to make it so.

DOBBS: Well, there are organizations such as CARE, your own organization. It is often, well, let me say, it's nearly always difficult to find a voice for that community in which you say correctly I believe is not monolithic, George. But the role of the Arab-American community, your colleague Jim Zogby appeal basically to the Jewish organizations to support his view as well for the very same reasons you're supporting George Bush, and that is on the issue of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. What is your reaction to Jim's thinking there, George?

SALEM: Well, I think that Arab-Americans have been reaching out to the moderate elements of the American Jewish community for many, many years. We have a very active dialogue ongoing with that community. In fact, no matter who's elected, obviously, I'm very hopeful that it'll be President Bush and working very hard in that regard regard.

There, I believe, will be a coalescence of views between the mainstream Arab-American community and the mainstream Jewish community in favor of a two-state solution along the lines of the Geneva Accords, which both sides attended to endorse and a number of approaches that call for the extremists on both sides, not to define the agenda.

DOBBS: Jim, I've got to give -- we're out of time. You get the last word if you can please hold it to about 20 seconds.

ZOGBY: Let me tell you, this administration has been characterized by so many promises that have never been delivered on. This president has projected vision, not showing you how to get there and he's flip-flopped.

On Iraq, he's had so many plans, none of them work. Israeli- Palestinian peace: Mitchell Plan, Tenet Plan, Zinni Plan, the Road Map, all of them died. He promised to protect civil liberties and he didn't. It's been a disaster. We have to have a change. And I think most Arab-Americans support me in that.

DOBBS: All right, George, since he said most Arab-Americans support him in that, do you have a 15-second summation?

SALEM: Well, I think that you have a growing number of Arab- Americans who do support this president. The majority supported him last time. Rather than have a Kerry administration with a great deal of flip-flopping on every issue of concern to the community, I think that they would rather see the leadership now.

DOBBS: George Salem, thank you very much, Jim Zogby. In just in -- to keep things in context and in perspective, I would, if I may, remind you both that U.S. policies in the Middle East has been a distinct failure for the course of a half century. Thank you both, George Salem.

ZOGBY: No disagreement there.

SALEM: Absolutely in agreement there.

DOBBS: Coming up next, sprint to the finish. President Bush and Senator Kerry are criss-crossing the country. They're battling, obviously, for votes in key states. We'll be joined by our panel of top political journalists.

And "Heroes," the inspiring story tonight of an army combat engineer thankful to be alive after his life changed forever in Iraq. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Journalist Ann Coulter received more than a standing ovation in a speech in Arizona last night. Two men who disagree with Coulter's conservative views ran on stage at the University of Arizona and they hurled cream pies at her. But they were distinctly ineffective.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANN COULTER, COLUMNIST: ...to the point that I make in my book is, you take away the terrorism, and liberals would hate Muslims.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: I don't care whether you are a conservative, liberal, like Ann Coulter or you don't, you have to give her a lot of credit. She ducked those pies absolutely unscathed. Great reaction, and that at the University of Arizona police doing well, too. Both of the young gentlemen in custody.

Joining me now, 3 of the country's top journalists. From Washington, D.C., Roger Simon "U.S. News & World Report." Karen Tumulty "Time" magazine and here in New York, Mark Warren from "Esquire" magazine.

Well, now we've got Gore going to Florida. We have got Bill Clinton, Mark, in Philadelphia Monday. They're rolling out the big guns. Is this smart strategy on the part of the Kerry campaign, or is it desperation?

MARK WARREN, ESQUIRE: Oh, I think it makes perfect sense for the last week to bring out the stars of the party. President Clinton mobilizes the base like nobody's business. And he's still one of the masters of the game, so it makes a lot of sense.

DOBBS: Do you agree, Roger Simon?

ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": Yes, it does make sense. These are the stars of party. And these are true celebrities. And the Republicans are going to bring out Arnold Schwarzenegger for George Bush.

I don't think it moves a huge numbers of votes, but it gets people energized a little bit, gets people working on election day. And it might get out a little bit extra of the vote.

DOBBS: Karen, wolves in the woods, the Bush ad, anti-Kerry ad. Are these ads effective? They say they're going to run them for a while.

KAREN TUMULTY, TIME: Well, they say that they've had this ad in the can for months, and have been saving it to the end, because it is in fact so effective. To me it looks a little bit like the "Blair Witch Project."

But it's an echo of a very effective ad that Ronald Reagan used in 1984, where it was a bear in the woods at that point. But there is one really important difference here, and that is, the narrator's voice is a female voice and not a male voice, and I think that tells you a lot about the political dynamic this year.

WARREN: It's a little reminiscent of the daisy ad as well, I think, which only ran once. And it is also reflective of a change in the campaign strategy of the Bush campaign this week, with the president's speech on Monday in New Jersey, in which he went from saying essentially saying Senator Kerry doesn't understand the threat posed by terrorism to saying he doesn't have the will to defend the country. And then seconded by Vice President Cheney, warning of nukes in our cities. It's a very risky strategy. In that...

DOBBS: For whom?

WARREN: For the Bush campaign I think.

DOBBS: Oh, the scare tactics -- you are saying it's riskier for them?

WARREN: Well, I think they are violating a cardinal rule of American presidential politics here. And that is, to be re-elected you've got to be an optimist, best exemplified by Reagan and Clinton. A doomsday strategy bears very little resemblance to Reagan's morning to America, or Clinton's bridge to the 21st Century. It doesn't describe a very happy ending. So extremely risky I think.

DOBBS: Do you agree, Roger?

SIMON: No, fear works. I think George Bush would respond that he is an optimist. And in his speeches, he has a line about "we have climbed the mountain and now we're looking down on the valley," the valley of peace or whatever the heck it is, and he always tries to include an optimistic vision. But there is no doubt that both campaigns think fear is going to turn this election. The Democrats have responded to the wolf ad with their own animal ad, this one featuring birds. It features an eagle and an ostrich with its head in the sand and says, in these tough times, don't we need to be eagles again? So it's the battle of the animals at the end of this election. That's what we've come to.

DOBBS: You know, when I saw that, I couldn't help to think of that old expression, it's tough to soar with eagle when you're surrounded by turkeys, but I don't know why that occurred to me.

Karen, when last you and I were speaking, yesterday evening, we were talking about, in effect, the women's vote. We were talking about stem cell research, and we had a lot of viewers write in about that discussion. It's obviously -- touches a nerve. Senator Kerry, is he arguably, and I would like to hear your judgment, doing well at this point with women voters, or not so well? Because we're hearing both claims.

TUMULTY: Well, at least the polling that I have heard about would suggest that swing women voters at this point, those late deciders, that this is a strong issue for Senator Kerry with those voters. Conservative women, pro-life women, of course, were probably never going to vote for him anyway.

DOBBS: And Roger, men supporting George W. Bush, women supporting John Kerry. Is this whole election about gender?

SIMON: Well, it's been this way for many cycles. The Democrats have been called the mommy party, and the Republicans the daddy party for a long time now. Democrats tend to stress social issues -- education and welfare, Social Security. Republicans tend to stress national defense and crime, in those cycles with crime is a big deal. And they're somewhat divided along gender lines, but women are, as Karen indicated, is a very important -- it's not a minority block. It's a majority block in this country. More women vote than men, and if you can just move women a few percentage points, you really can improve your chances to win.

DOBBS: So when Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor Schwarzenegger talks about girlie men, is this an attempt to disenfranchise part of the vote?

WARREN: Well, good Lord, why do you think you saw Senator Kerry with a shotgun yesterday? I mean, for a generation, the Democrats have been losing -- at the presidential level, have been losing white men. That's what this is about.

TUMULTY: If I could add, in our latest "Time" magazine poll, which was just released in the last couple of hours, for the second week in a row, Senator Kerry is now running even with George Bush among women, while George Bush has a 15-point lead among men. This is a real problem for the Kerry campaign, if they cannot get this corrected in the last 10 or 11 days of the campaign.

DOBBS: And in the last election, did not Al Gore do just as well with women as George Bush did with men?

TUMULTY: Exactly. It was -- he won women by 11 percentage points. George Bush won men by 11 percentage points.

DOBBS: And we're watching the polls, and let the record show that Karen Tumulty brought up polls before I did.

SIMON: Well, since...

DOBBS: I'm sorry, Roger?

SIMON: Since we've reached the subject, I have to say the Associated Press poll shows John Kerry doing better with women by 1 percentage point than Al Gore did with women, and one thing you mentioned, stem cell research. We talked about it a lot yesterday, and Karen was absolutely correct, that it plays well with women of higher education. With women of lower education, however, minimum wage plays very well. Women are disproportionately minimum wage workers, and John Kerry advocates raising the minimum wage to $7 from the current $5.15.

DOBBS: Mark, if you could add something in 10 to 11 seconds, you get the last word.

WARREN: Well, I mean, I think that's why Senator Kerry has all of the celebrity women out for him this weekend, to try to, you know, do as well as Al Gore did four years ago, and I think he probably will end up doing about as well.

DOBBS: Mark Warren, Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, you and I will continue our discussion on embryonic stem cells throughout the next week. Have a great weekend. Thanks for being here, everybody.

TUMULTY: Thank you.

SIMON: Thank you.

DOBBS: Now, "Heroes." Our salute to the men and women who are defending each and every one of us. Tonight, the remarkable story of Erick Castro. He says he has no regrets about his tour of duty in Iraq, despite a devastating loss in combat. Casey Wian has his story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Erick Castro joined the military at 19, to see the world. In 2003, he was deployed to Iraq as an Army combat engineer. He was there six months when his life changed forever.

Riding in an armored personnel carrier, his squad came under attack. A single shot from a handheld Soviet anti-tank weapon took a horrific toll.

SGT. ERICK CASTRO (RET.), U.S. ARMY: It hits the vehicle, it explodes on impact. Creates a small hole, and the titanium rod goes through the whole vehicle. And it hit three guys right in the femur, right in the leg. So it hit us and it took the legs right off.

WIAN: Three soldiers lost their legs simultaneously.

Castro remembers little until he woke up a week later at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C.

CASTRO: First couple of days, it's still depressing. It's like, oh, I lost a leg, I'm useless, I'm not going to be able to do anything with the rest of my life. I'm only 24.

WIAN: But as time went by, he learned to live as an amputee.

CASTRO: Within three months, I was completely rehabed. I was now starting to walk on the prosthetic, on the C-leg, and then within six months I was walking on the C-leg, with just one crutch, getting around, doing everything on my own.

WIAN: While he awaits adjustments to his prosthetic leg, Castro cheerfully gets around on crutches, appreciating just how lucky he is to be alive.

CASTRO: If it was Vietnam or some other war, I think I would have been dead.

WIAN: Castro says in spite of his injury, he has no regrets.

CASTRO: The military showed me so much things that a guy from Santa Ana would never do or see. I've been in Paris twice. I lived in Germany for two years. I have been to Barcelona, I've been to (UNINTELLIGIBLE). I have been to several states -- several other states besides California. Some people don't get out of Orange County.

WIAN: Now Castro is studying to become a mechanical engineer. Casey Wian, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Erick Castro.

Still ahead here, the results of our poll and we'll tell you what's ahead come Monday. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: No wishy-washy audience here. The results of our poll tonight. Only 1 percent of you say it is very likely your choice for president will change before this election. Two percent say somewhat likely; 97 percent of you know exactly what you're doing come November 2nd.

Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us Monday. Columnist Peggy Noonan will be here. I'll be joined by Democratic strategist Kiki McLean. And the battle for Congress: The chairs of the Republican and Democratic Congressional Committees join me.

For all of us here, we wish you a very pleasant weekend, and good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.

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