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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Bush, Kerry Roll Out Star Power; Campaigns Mobilize Supporters
Aired October 25, 2004 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, President Bush leads Senator Kerry in the latest national opinion poll. Both Bush and Kerry today rolled out their star power.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WILLIAM J. CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: In eight days, John Kerry's going to make America the comeback country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUDY GIULIANI, FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY: We can't take a chance in going back to where we were before September 11, 2001.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Florida, a critical swing state.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You guys are making democracy happen here in Florida.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: And both campaigns are mobilizing their supporters and focusing on the undecided.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm calling on behalf of President Bush.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: We'll have a special report.
Democrats and Republicans battling for control of the House. My guests tonight are the two Democratic and Republican congressmen who are leading their party's campaigns to control the House of Representatives.
And violent crime drops again. One of the policies responsible: Three-strike sentencing laws. It's now under attack. A special report.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, October 25th. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
Tonight, President Bush is leading Senator Kerry in the latest national opinion poll. The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows the president with a 5 percent lead among likely voters.
Today, President Bush campaigned with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Senator Kerry campaigned with former President Bill Clinton.
Frank Buckley is following the Kerry campaign. He is in Philadelphia tonight. Dana Bash with the Bush campaign tonight in Davenport, Iowa. And Bill Schneider in Washington tonight will report on these latest poll findings.
We go to Frank Buckley first -- Frank.
FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, a much anticipated appearance here in Philadelphia with former President Clinton appearing at a rally for the first time with Senator John Kerry.
And, if there was any doubt at all about President Clinton's star power within the Democratic Party, the huge crowd that gathered here in downtown Philadelphia dispelled it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BUCKLEY (voice-over): It was the picture of brotherly love, as former President Bill Clinton joined Senator John Kerry for a rally for an estimated 100,000 to 120,000 people in downtown Philadelphia.
CLINTON: From time to time, I have been called the comeback kid. In eight days, John Kerry's going to make America the comeback country.
BUCKLEY: It's Mr. Clinton's first public appearance since bypass surgery seven weeks ago meant to energize Democrats, especially African-Americans, and to remind other voters of the job growth and budget surplus of the Clinton era.
Clinton comparing his administration with President Bush's.
CLINTON: On the economy, we have just lived through four years of the first job losses in 70 years, record bankruptcies, middle-class incomes declining and poverty going up.
In Pennsylvania alone, you've lost 70,000 jobs, this compared with the 219,000 you gained by this time when that last fellow was president -- me.
BUCKLEY: Kerry's embrace of the former president, a departure from the strategy of Al Gore in 2000, who, in the wake of Monicagate, kept Clinton at arm's length.
Kerry believes Clinton helps.
SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I asked the president before we came out here -- I said, Mr. President, can you tell me anything that you have in common with George W. Bush, and he thought for a moment, and he said, in eight days and 12 hours, we will both be former presidents.
BUCKLEY: While this former president's appearance provided the Kerry campaign's picture of the day, news from Iraq gave Kerry a chance to go after the president on the issue both men would like to own, security.
Kerry jumping on reports that 380 tons of powerful explosives have gone missing in Iraq.
KERRY: This is one of the great additional blunders of Iraq. The unbelievable incompetence of this administration step after step has put our troops at greater and greater risk, overextended the American military, isolated the United States, put a greater financial burden on the American people. George W. Bush has failed the test of commander in chief.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BUCKLEY: And tomorrow, Senator Kerry stays on the security theme, delivering a speech on Homeland Security, domestic security. Tonight, Senator Kerry's in Michigan and Wisconsin. President Clinton -- former President Clinton, meanwhile, in South Miami for a couple of rallies.
And, Lou, we learned later in the day today that President Clinton will remain active for the Kerry campaign at the end of the week. On Friday, he'll be appearing in Nevada, Saturday in New Mexico, and then on Sunday in his home state of Arkansas -- Lou.
DOBBS: A busy schedule for the president, seven weeks after bypass surgery.
Frank Buckley reporting from Philadelphia.
Thank you.
President Bush today hammered Senator Kerry on his national security policies. President Bush accused the senator of having a wait-and-see approach to the war on terror.
Dana Bash is traveling with president and she joins us now From Davenport, Iowa -- Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Well, Lou, the president started the day in Colorado, a state that he won handily last time around, but polls show are very, very close there.
So the president, with Rudy Giuliani by his side, launched his last week of full campaigning by giving really what was a blistering and mocking recitation of what he says Senator Kerry will do as president, and that is he essentially said not keep America as safe as Mr. Bush is.
Now he accused the senator of being a leader who would be on the defense, not offense, and even appealed to Democrats by saying that he is not in the mold of some Democratic greats, like FDR and JFK.
And Mr. Bush also defended himself against Senator Kerry who, time and time again, had said that Mr. Bush botched finding Osama bin Laden in the battle of Tora Bora. Kerry -- he used a Kerry quote from three years ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: At the time, Senator Kerry said about Tora Bora, "I think we've been smart, I think administration leadership has done well, and we are on the right track." And all I can say is that I am George W. Bush and I approve of that message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Now all of that is what the White House wanted the headlines to be today, not a story that showed that 380 tons of explosives are now missing in Iraq.
Now the president did not mention that in his speech, devoted entirely almost to terrorism and Iraq, but top Bush aides defend against the Kerry camp's accusation that perhaps the White House is trying to cover it up by not disclosing it.
They say that they were -- didn't want to release information piecemeal, that they were still trying to get the facts, and White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett shot back that the Kerry campaign is simply trying to rip from the headlines and, again, as they've said before, if he wants to talk about terrorism and national security, it fine with them because they think that that is playing on the Bush campaign's turf.
But, Lou, Bush aides privately do admit having the story in "The New York Times" this morning eight days out is not all that good for them at this point -- Lou.
DOBBS: Dana, where the is the president headed from Davenport?
BASH: From Davenport, he is going to Wisconsin. That is one of state, Lou, that was very, very close last time around. Just by about 5,000 votes, the president lost. The White House is hoping that is going to be one of those blue states that Mr. Bush can turn red, perhaps, hopefully, from their point of view, as an insurance policy in case he loses important states like Ohio and Florida.
DOBBS: Dana, thank you very much.
Dana Bash reporting from Davenport, Iowa.
Significant new poll numbers tonight. The latest CNN/""USA Today"/Gallup poll gives President Bush a 5 percent lead over Senator Kerry. Our Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KERRY: God bless, you all! Thank you!
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): It's getting closer. This weekend's CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows George W. Bush leading John Kerry by 5 points among likely voters nationwide, 51 percent to 46 percent. A week ago, Bush was leading by 8 points. A 5-point lead is within the margin of error for this poll.
Among all registered voters, the race is even closer: Bush 49 percent, Kerry 47 percent. Today's CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll comes after four others released this weekend. They show a narrow Bush lead among likely voters, ranging from 1 percent to 5 percent. The average: Bush 49 percent, Kerry 46 percent.
Both campaigns are rallying the base. Democrats have brought out Bill Clinton, while Bush himself is playing to the GOP base.
BUSH: I'm a compassionate conservative and proudly so.
SCHNEIDER: Both campaigns are also going after swing voters, the Bush campaign by bringing out Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger, while Kerry himself is playing to swing voters.
KERRY: This isn't about being a Democrat or a Republican. It's about bringing Democrats and Republicans together for a higher purpose.
SCHNEIDER: How many swing voters are still out there? The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows 7 percent of voters have not firmly made up their minds. Sixty-two percent of the remaining swing voters are women, most of them unmarried. What political figure is known to appeal to women, particularly on economic issues?
CLINTON: On the economy, we have just lived through four years of the first job losses in 70 years.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: How divided is the country? The poll asked voters whether they felt President Bush is more of a uniter or a divider. The answer: 48 percent call Bush a uniter; 48 percent call him a divider.
Lou, Americans are divided over whether Bush is dividing the country. Yikes!
DOBBS: Well, as I recall, Bill, the poll is something of an improvement because it was about 50-50 six months ago on that issue.
Let's look at some of these numbers. Now this poll is one of the wider margins given President Bush. Put that in some context because these polls, as you recall, in 2000 were not terrifically accurate.
SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, the polls show a margin for Bush ranging from 1 point to 5 points. This is at the outer edge. This is a 5- point lead. "TIME" magazine also shows a 5-point lead. But the averages we saw is about 3 points.
Every one of these polls is within the margin of error. I should point out that the new ABC News/"Washington Post" tracking poll has Kerry 1 point ahead.
You know, the bottom line here is it's too close to call in all these polls.
DOBBS: And all of these polls, which may or may not be helpful to the strategists, probably reflecting our own eagerness and anxiousness to get to the result as quickly as possible, but we've got another week at least for that.
Bill Schneider, thank you very much.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
DOBBS: Bill, I want you to listen carefully to this next poll. It wasn't within your stable of polls there, your poll of polls. Another poll says President Bush has won the support of a key group of Americans, a group that has correctly, in fact, chosen the next president in nearly every election in the past half-century.
More than 300,000 students in grades Kindergarten through 12 participated in "The Weekly Reader" poll. The poll gives President Bush 65 percent support, Senator Kerry 33 percent. "Weekly Reader"'s staff say younger students tend to reflect the views of their parents, while older students are more likely to express their own opinions.
Still ahead, the battle to win votes in Florida escalates. Both parties launching a final offensive on the ground. We'll have a special report.
And the fight to defend three-strike sentencing laws, one of the policies responsible for a decade-long decline in crime.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARC KLAAS, FATHER OF POLLY KLAAS: We're getting the right guys in this net of three strikes and incarcerating them for long periods of time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Our special report is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, Chief Justice William Rehnquist is recovering from throat surgery after he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer. Rehnquist underwent a tracheotomy Saturday at the Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. A Supreme Court spokeswoman said Rehnquist is expected to leave the hospital later this week and is expected to return to work Monday. Rehnquist is 80 years old.
A battle is underway tonight in California over a controversial proposal that could put as many as 26,000 convicted felons back on the streets. Over the past decade, California's violent crime rate has been cut nearly in half. One reason for the decline, say the experts, is the state's tough three-strikes-you're-out sentencing law. But now many in California want to soften the law.
Peter Viles reports from Los Angeles.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Affirmative. Thank you.
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It sounds like the plot from one his movies. Crime is way down in California, the new governor wants to keep it that way, but the entire state is about to cut criminals a break.
GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: We all know if Proposition 66 would pass, criminals will get out of jails. They will be roaming our streets and our neighborhoods, and then our state will be unsafe once again.
VILES: California's three-strikes-and-you're-out sentencing law was born amid outrage over the murder of 12-year-old Polly Klaas. After one violent crime, a second felony, whether it's violent or not, doubles your sentence. A third felony, if it follows two violent crimes, is 25 years to life.
Proponents, including Polly Klaas's father, say the law has worked. California's crime rate at a 39-year low.
KLAAS: In the course of the last four years, is that our prison population has pretty much evened out at about 160,000, yet crime continues to go down, which tells me that we're getting the right guys in this net of three strikes and incarcerating them for long periods of time.
VILES: But opponents say the law does nothing but fill California prisons with petty criminals.
VINCENT SCHIRALDI, JUSTICE POLICY INSTITUTE: That's not what the voters voted for. They didn't vote to put nonviolent offenders in prison for life for stealing a slice of pizza or writing a bad check, but that's what the outcome of three strikes has been thus far.
VILES: Proposition 66 would change the rules. The second and third strike would have to be violent crimes, and it's retroactive. Prosecutors say 26,000 criminals would be released from prison, including John Bunyard, a two-time murder known as the Nob Hill rapist.
The governor and law enforcement face an uphill battle. A poll released October 13 shows 65 percent in favor of limiting the three- strikes law, only 18 percent opposed.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: A lot of the big money behind Prop 66 comes from a Sacramento businessman named Jerry Keenan. Now his son, Jerry Keenan's son, is serving time in Fulsome Prison for vehicular manslaughter, and, if his father prevails, if Prop 66 passes, he would likely be released from prison several years earlier -- Lou.
DOBBS: Pete, to be clear, as a result of Proposition 66, convicted murderers could be released from prison?
VILES: If they're not serving time for the murder, if they served their time for the murder and are now serving time for some other crime, a nonviolent crime, yes, they could be released under Prop 66.
DOBBS: Incredible. Thank you very much.
Peter Viles.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. Do you think the three-strikes sentencing law should be preserved? Yes or no. Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We will post the results later here in the broadcast.
Coming right up, ground war in Florida. The major parties mobilizing voters more than in any other election. We'll will have a special report for you.
And then, winning the House of Representatives. Congressional candidates fighting fierce battles in several key races around the country. I'll be talking with the heads of the major party congressional committees on how those races could shape the House.
That and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: No paper record required in Florida voting. A federal judge today threw out a lawsuit that challenges paperless electronic voting in Florida. Congressman Robert Wexler had filed the lawsuit claiming paper records would be needed, if Florida were to recount its votes again this year, as it did four years ago. The judge ruled Florida's paperless machines provide what he called sufficient safe guards in the event of a recount. Congressman Wexler says he will appeal.
Democrats and Republicans are appealing to voters across the State of Florida after just 537 votes separated the president from Vice President Gore in 2000. Each campaign has now a massive organization of volunteers on the ground going door-to-door, trying to win Florida's 27 critical electoral votes.
Our Senior White House Correspondent John King reports from Brandon, Florida. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ground zero in the fight for Florida, and Arthenia Joyner doesn't like to take no for an answer.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, because I've got to go do so many things.
KING: Joyner pushes this man to take advantage of early voting and promises to keep track.
ARTHENIA JOYNER (D), FLORIDA STATE REPRESENTATIVE: I'm going come back and make sure.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, of course. Yes, yes.
JOYNER: OK.
KING: The ground war is waged one door, one voter at a time. Tell Joyner, a Democratic state representative, you've got company, and she'll invite herself in.
JOYNER: You know that early voting's going on right now.
KING: Democrats are encouraged by early voting turnout in African-American neighborhoods in Tampa and elsewhere. They think it could be a difference here in Florida and credit an organizing push far superior to four years ago.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Voter valet.
KING: Volunteers with vans target registered Democrats with a poor history of turning out to vote.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You guys are making democracy happen here in Florida.
KING: Spanish speakers are in demand as volunteers sign up to work the phones, and local Democrats still bitter at the contested election of four years ago welcome all the volunteer help pouring in from out of state for the final week push.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you for being here.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you for being here.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Enjoy the humidity.
KING: In a state decided by just 537 votes last time, every vote and every volunteer matters.
Team Bush promises not to be outworked on the ground.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm Harriet Ackerly (ph). I'm calling on behalf of President Bush. KING: Barbecue was a reward for early voting in Pinellas County, the St. Petersburg-Clearwater area. This is GOP headquarters in Brandon, just outside Tampa.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, if you can go in groups of twos or threes, inside each bag, you'll find a clipboard, and it will give the specific houses and addresses that you will go to.
KING: Computers crunch the names and numbers nowadays, and the appeals are carefully targeted. This leaflet draws contrasts on abortion and gay marriage in English and Spanish for the area's growing population of Latino Catholics.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're going to be splitting up. There's about -- let's see. We've got 28 houses on this street.
KING: Alex Yucare (ph) is only 17, but an organizing veteran, plenty of stories about feisty dog encounters. This, his first effort to court the vote of a voice from above.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. I'm sorry to bother you. We're just volunteers for the Bush-Cheney campaign.
KING: No one home means leaving some literature. This, the type of stop that makes all the walking worth it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can I get a Bush sign?
KING: Twenty-eight houses on the list this day. Dozens more in the final week ahead. Democracy at its most basic, and time running short.
John King, CNN, Brandon, Florida.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Coming up next, an all-out battle for control of Congress. I'll be joined by the chairs of the Republican and Democratic Congressional Committees next.
And the presidential candidates take the fight for the White House to key battleground states in these final days of the election. Columnist Peggy Noonan, Democratic strategist Kiki McLean join me next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: A week from tomorrow, voters across the country casting ballots for all 435 seats in the House of Representations. The Republicans widely expected to maintain control of the House.
Joining me now from Buffalo, New York, Congressman Tom Reynolds. He's the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. From Washington, D.C., Congressman Matsui, the chairman of the National Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Gentlemen, good to have you here.
REP. ROBERT MATSUI (D-CA), NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Nice to be here.
REP. TOM REYNOLDS (R-NY), NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Great to be here.
DOBBS: Congressman Matsui, let me begin with you, if I may. You need 12, 13 seats to gain control of the House. What do you judge your odds to be?
MATSUI: I think we have a very good chance of taking the House back. Our Democratic incumbents are protected. Obviously, we have five seats in Texas, but, right now, we're, with three of them, within the margin of error ahead.
And we're going after 29 Republicans, nine Republican open seats in which we think we can win seven or eight, and we have 20 Republican incumbents in which we have great challengers, and if we win 12, 13, 14 of those, we'll take the House back, and I just have to say I think the momentum's shifting.
Tomorrow in "The Washington Post," it'll show that Senator Kerry will go ahead in the poll by 1 point, and I think his lead will start increasing over time.
DOBBS: Congressman Reynolds, something tells me you're not going to agree with Congressman Matsui's mathematics or prognosis?
REYNOLDS: Well, I'll use Charlie Cook, the pundit who reviews these races. He says there's 37 seats that are up for grabs up in the House right now. We only need to win seven to hold control. I think there's no question, using "The Washington Post" story of Cook today, that there's no chance that the House will go Democratic in his eyes, is, first of all, we will have a House Republican majority.
And the second question is, how many of the seats in these hotly contested battles out there. both in Texas and in seats throughout the country, will we win to see if my goal of bringing back 228 members is the reality on election night for the final outcome.
DOBBS: Well, Congressman Matsui's point, Congressman Reynolds, is relevant certainly to this extent, and that is that you do have more seats being contested than the Democrats. Is that of vulnerability?
REYNOLDS: Well, I don't know that we have as many contested. When you look at the Texas seats -- there's five in there -- two are member to member, and then there's three or four that polls show that we're leading against incumbents.
When you look at some of our seats that are open, we have a few hotly-contested open seats that the Democrats thought were slam dunks, such as Jack Quinn's right in New York's 27 next door to me, and that's a neck-and-neck race that's going to go right to the finish line.
And while many thought that Max Burns in Georgia 12 would be an automatic defeat the way Georgia redistricting was done, Max is holding his won to what will be a bitter-fought race in Georgia. And when we look at the open seats in the State of Washington, I think we're doing fine.
DOBBS: Congressman Matsui, in Georgia 12, as Congressman Reynolds put it, Max Burns, how much trouble is he in by your read?
MATSUI: I think turnout's going to be critical in this race. One of the problems right now, Andy Kohut said this in "The New York Times" last week that the polling data really doesn't demonstrate what's going to happen. I think everybody knows right now, in fact I think your -- just recent segment on Florida indicates that you're going to see massive turnout.
You can't do the turnout within 24 hours. You have to begin working on that within eight, 10 months in advance. And the Democrats, the 527s, we can't coordinate with them, but they were involved in that very early. And secondly (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
DOBBS: But you can have -- you can have happy coincidences, is that another way of putting it?
MATSUI: Well, no. We can't coordinate. The 527s are doing their own thing.
DOBBS: No, I understand that. It was a poor attempt at humor on my part.
MATSUI: No, no, no, that's OK. That's OK. I just don't want to say anything that would be implicating in a negative way here. But also, the right track/wrong track, satisfied/dissatisfied -- over the last 12 months, Lou, the American public has basically said, by 10 or 15 points, they are very dissatisfied about the direction of the country.
And I might just mention that Charlie Cook said the Republicans at this time in 1994 couldn't take the House back either. So I kind of discount sometimes Charlie Cook and some of the pundits' comments.
DOBBS: Well, I'm sure Charlie Cook appreciates the endorsement there.
Congressman Reynolds, let me turn to you on one -- I think a critical issue here. Are you getting any sense at all in these race, 435 of them, that the national issues which are driving, of course, the president and Senator Kerry's race, are going to be relevant to the congressional races? Or is it truly local politics, district by district?
REYNOLDS: First, my good friend, Bob Matsui was using the generic polling when we were breaking in July to take an August recess was going to be the factor of our doom, and quite frankly the generics and many public polls now have us ahead. We've said all along that these races will be built from the ground up, custom-fit, district by district. There was no coattails in 2000, one of the closest elections of my lifetime. There will be no coattails in 2004.
DOBBS: Congressman Reynolds, Congressman Matsui, thank you both for being here, and to each of you gentlemen, good luck on November 2.
REYNOLDS: Thank you.
MATSUI: Thank you.
DOBBS: Still ahead, America votes. A new poll showing President Bush ahead of Senator Kerry by a margin of about five points among likely voters. I'll be talking with advisers from both campaigns, and the candidates targeting key battleground states. Just eight days to go. Our panel of the top political journalists in the country join me when we continue.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The final eight days of this campaign featuring some of the biggest stars of the Democratic and Republican parties. As we reported, former President Bill Clinton today campaigning in Pennsylvania and Florida. President Bush this week has the help of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California.
Joining me now, two star strategists of these parties. In a moment, I'll be talking with Republican adviser and columnist Peggy Noonan, but first Kiki McLean, an adviser to the Kerry-Edwards campaign joining me tonight from Washington. Kiki, good to have you here.
KIKI MCLEAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: How are you, Lou?
DOBBS: I am outstanding. I hope you are well, looking at these polls. The CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll shows your candidate five points behind. But nearly every other poll has it very tight indeed.
MCLEAN: It is a tight race. You are right. There are other polls that show Senator Kerry a point up, but what is important is the momentum, I think, is going with Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards, especially after we hear and learn about more mistakes of this administration that are really quite grave in their nature, with 380 pounds of explosives stockpiled in Iraq that have been stolen and are in the hands of the bad guys under George Bush's watch. Those kind of things, those kind of mistakes that are making America realize it's time for a change.
DOBBS: Time for a change, but Democrats and Senator Kerry are going to the past, rolling out former President Bill Clinton to a crowd of about 100,000 in Philadelphia, looking for all the world like a rock star up there.
MCLEAN: Well, I'll tell you what, doesn't it say something when somebody who's just had open heart surgery believes it is important enough to get out and come out and speak out for change? If you were...
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Wait, wait, wait. Kiki, do you really believe -- do you believe anybody could have stopped Bill Clinton from going out there to greet that crowd?
MCLEAN: But what you also saw was a reminder of what real leadership can be. And John Kerry can bring us that kind of leadership, about what it's like to create jobs, not lose them, about what it's like to have solid diplomatic relationships and respect around the world and not lose that respect.
DOBBS: You know, I know we're getting right to it, but when you say something like -- I have got to ask you. Why in the world should we believe that Senator Kerry can be anymore effective than George Bush in getting the United Nations to make sense, or France and Germany to provide troops when both of their governments have said they would not?
MCLEAN: Well, first of all because he's willing to open the dialogue and have the dialogue. Part of the problem you have with George Bush is there is no credibility. At no point, Lou, does this man ever take responsibility for anything. The Abu Ghraib prison scandals. The job losses in America. Now, all these explosives in the hands of bad guys. I have yet to hear George Bush, and particularly on the weapons of mass destruction, say you know what, this is wrong. It was a mistake. I take responsibility for it.
You have to be willing to admit and recognize what's wrong so you can set about fixing it. John Kerry's prepared to do that. He's laid out a solid plan for that, and it's having that kind of credibility and respect that gives us a chance at the diplomatic table again.
DOBBS: At this point, Senator Kerry rolling out -- let's go back to Bill Clinton. The fact of the matter is, Bill Clinton is going to be -- President Clinton is going to be in Florida, a number of other states, a strategy that Al Gore did not follow in 2000. Are there any concerns on your part that -- while Bill Clinton is dearly loved by the Democratic Party, or at least most of it, that he may not find quite the same reaction among Republicans and independents?
MCLEAN: I think Bill Clinton has a strong record of leadership, and Americans respect that. And I think he's somebody who can speak with authority about what that kind of leadership can provide. He's a strong endorsement to the kind of future John Kerry wants for this country, in terms of job creation, a stronger economy, making sure that we're working for people again and not running around trying to take care of our rich buddies and give contracts out to, you know, other office holder's companies. I think that's important.
DOBBS: All right, Kiki, then you give me the forecast. What will the vote be on November 2nd? MCLEAN: I think it'll be very close, but I think in the end, John Kerry is going to be our next president and John Edwards will be our next vice president. And you know what? I think that's a day full of hope for this country.
DOBBS: All right, you are not going to give me the margin. Let me ask you, are we going to know on the evening or -- of November 2nd or early morning of November 3rd?
MCLEAN: I believe when the polls are closed and every vote has been counted, we'll know. But that's important. Every vote has to be counted. The one thing I would say, whether -- regardless of the party you're in, is you've got to go vote. You've got to stand up and make your voice heard and make sure your vote is counted.
DOBBS: Are you trying to convince me, Kiki?
MCLEAN: I want to make sure you vote, Lou.
DOBBS: You better believe I will.
Kiki McLean, thanks a lot for being here.
MCLEAN: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: I am joined now by Peggy Noonan, former speechwriter for President Reagan. She's taken leave from writing her column in "The Wall Street Journal" to serve as an unpaid adviser to the Republican National Committee. Good to have you here.
PEGGY NOONAN, ADVISER TO RNC: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: You just heard Kiki. She sounds pretty confident. She says it's a time for change. She thinks it's a wrapped up deal.
NOONAN: Well, I guess she does. I disagree with her. I don't think the outcome is going to be the one she expects, but could I just jump in on one of the many issues she raised...
DOBBS: Of course you can.
NOONAN: ... which is the explosives and that horrible...
DOBBS: Oh, we're going to get to that one way or the other.
NOONAN: All right, well, let's start with it.
Look, war is hell. War is a mess. It looks like hundreds of tons of these horrible explosives, which can do many terrible things in many terrible ways, are missing. I've talked to people about it all day today. The first thought I had was, whoa! I thought there were no weapons of mass destruction. This sounds like a weapon of mass destruction to me.
DOBBS: Well, it certainly...
NOONAN: The sort of stuff that Saddam had could be used to do terrible things. Talked to Bernie Kerik today -- go ahead...
DOBBS: Can I insert here so everybody understands what you are really saying. That a number of these high explosives, 377 tons of them, a portion of them had been sealed in point of fact by the IAEA whose responsibility it is to look over nuclear materials because these types of explosives HM-AX are used to detonate nuclear weapons.
NOONAN: They can be. They can be. They can be used in a very small amount to take down an airliner.
DOBBS: Less than a pound?
NOONAN: Yes, they can take down buildings. They can do terrible things. Explosives like this, stuff like this was all over Iraq when the U.S. army went in. I talked to Bernie Kerik earlier today. He said we were finding them in the fields. Explosives, huge caches of them and destroying them. We were finding them in caves and in all sorts of places. Getting them exploded and taking care of them, getting rid of them. The point remains, it is good that Saddam is not now in charge of those things, and I think the point is underscored, these horrible explosives and damaging devices did exist and were there. It is also true that these explosives might have been used in the advancement of the creation of a nuclear program for Iraq down the road, in the past and down the road. It's not good that it's missing. We're going to have to find it. But it does illustrate I think some points that Mr. Bush has been trying to make, about the badness and evil of the Iraqi setup.
DOBBS: Yes.
NOONAN: And also about how dangerous it was there.
DOBBS: Yes. This is a confusing period of time for some people. Obviously, because, one, those who felt that Saddam Hussein deserved to be removed, whether as a matter of regime change or his possession of weapons of mass destruction, the fact is the way in which the administration has managed, post-May 1, that is the end of so-called major combat operations is the larger issue. This is an extraordinary, I think you would agree, a lapse of judgment, and oversight on the part of the...
NOONAN: The lapse of something. I am certain of that. I mean, you don't lose...
DOBBS: Let me assert my opinion on this one, Peggy.
NOONAN: Go ahead.
DOBBS: 377 tons of high explosive in one of the most unstable regions of the country, that is -- to put at its kindest, a lapse of judgment.
NOONAN: It's a lapse of something. Oversight or whatever. Who was involved? I think the reporting of it was also kind of late. Apparently it happened a while back, we're not sure exactly when it happened, and the reporting of it has just broken. DOBBS: Can I interrupt you?
NOONAN: This is bad but a larger point ought to be made. I think about war and this is something I always talk about with my son. My son is always upset about the way the war going. Not with the invasion itself. Not with the victory in which we got Iraq from Saddam but decisions that have been made since. I say, look, war is hell and it's a mess. Every president knows this, that's why they don't like to fight them. It's a horrible thing. That's one.
Another thing is wars don't go well in the beginning as a rule. Henry Kissinger earlier today mentioned D-Day, you know? He said, would you have complained on D-Day that we had too many or too few troops on Omaha Beach?
My comparison is always the Civil War. Poor Abe Lincoln, a very great man, had nothing but 2 1/2, three years of terrible, hard news, and mistakes, and missteps and mess-ups. That's what war is like. That doesn't mean you say, OK, we're over, we're out of here. A mess has been made. We're going to have to clean it up.
DOBBS: I will remind you that President Lincoln did bring in Ulysses S. Grant because he got tired of it.
NOONAN: He did, it was about 2 1/2 years in.
DOBBS: There's nothing like the compression of time in modern America and the world. Peggy, I want to just take a moment here. We're going to go to Davenport, Iowa. President Bush has just started speaking there. I just want, if we may, just listen to him for just a few seconds.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American president in these times of danger must lead with consistency and strength. In a war sometimes your tactics change. But not your principles. America has seen how I do my job. Even when you might not agree with me. You know what I believe, where I stand, and what I intend to do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: President Bush in Davenport, Iowa, sort of a symbol of where we are right now representative of this race. Iowa won by Al Gore in 2000. 7 electoral votes. President Bush is slightly behind there in the polling, but nonetheless, going for the votes.
NOONAN: It's grabable. He's going for it, and in the electoral college landscape, we've got every seven votes counts, and you know they're still pounding Florida in a very big way. I was down there pounding it with them. I was going door-to-door like one of your earlier reports. They're still pounding Ohio. They're still pounding Pennsylvania.
DOBBS: A hard-fought contest, and it looks like it's going to be, as if anybody needs me to say this to enlarge the body of public knowledge, a very tight race. Peggy Noonan, thanks for being here to give us some insight.
NOONAN: Thanks so much.
DOBBS: Still ahead, the final week on this campaign trail. We'll talk with three of the country's top political journalists.
And major backlash tonight over what one British newspaper had to say about President Bush. I love "The Guardian." Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Another extraordinary election blunder by one of Britain's most liberal newspapers "The Guardian." "The Guardian" of course is the very same newspaper that encouraged its readers to write pro-Kerry letters to voters in Ohio, a critical battleground state, and then changed its mind, after a howl of protest from Ohioans. The newspaper is now facing a storm of criticism after one of its columnists suggested President Bush in fact should be assassinated.
Columnist Charlie Brooker wrote, quote, "John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr., where are you now that we need you?"
And where in the world were "The Guardians'" editors? Brooker today apologized for any offense caused by the column. Brooker said his comments were intended as an ironic joke and not a call to action. Well, Mr. Brooker, we can tell you quite unequivocally there was nothing funny at all about your remarks.
Joining me for more on this final week of the campaign, three of the country's top political journalists. In Washington, Karen Tumulty, "TIME" magazine. Roger Simon, "U.S. News & World Report." Joining me here in New York Marcus Mabry of "Newsweek" magazine. Karen, start with the major developments. 377 tons of high explosive went missing in Iraq.
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Right, and this is 1 1/2 times the weight of the Statute of Liberty. Just so you get a sense of how much of this stuff we are talking about. I think once again is exactly the kind of news that George Bush does not want on the front pages when you have eight days left to go in an election where his prosecution of the war in Iraq and more importantly the aftermath of the war in Iraq is Topic A and the single issue that's dominating the entire election.
DOBBS: And let's turn to Marcus, this story by Brooker in "The Guardian." First, calling for a writing campaign to voters in Ohio. Now this. Come on! This is now unfunny by -- and that's the nicest thing I can say about the editorial direction being followed.
MABRY: Yes, I think it's ridiculous. However, I'm not surprised. I mean the British press has very different rules know that the American press. And the tabloid calls for Britain is outrageous and outlandish and we never do the stuff that we do.
DOBBS: "The Guardian" isn't a tabloid. "The Guardian" isn't a tabloid.
MABRY: But the culture is infected. I think all the British newspaper culture is infected.
DOBBS: Does everybody agree?
SIMON: No. This was beyond the pale even for a British publication. If an American columnist had printed in 1984 that it was a shame that the IRA had not assassinated Margaret Thatcher, the British press would have gone bonkers and including "The Guardian."
DOBBS: Why is the American press, Roger, being so reticent on this?
Why aren't they reaction. Why is there rationalization, even apologia. Why in the world aren't they going -- there are lots of words that come to mind. I will use one that we can serviceably here.
SIMON: Because we fought a revolution so we didn't have to lift know to British twits anymore. So, I think we decided just to ignore this guy and not give him anymore publicity which is obviously what he wanted when he wrote it.
MABRY: Lou, I just don't think it's important. We are eight days away from an important election. A plurality of Americans tell us they think this is the most important election of their lifetime. (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
DOBBS: I think it's important -- I think it is important from the standpoint -- frankly, I disagree with. I think it's important from the stand point the national media of this country is not responding. And I find that interesting. Karen, I don't know whether you do or not but I would like to hear your opinion.
TUMULTY: Well, it's despicable. And once you have said it is despicable, what do you do, cancel your subscription?
DOBBS: No, I guess you are challenging to a duel.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: A duel. Maybe one of those debates. I don't know.
MABRY: Him against Zell Miller, we can do that.
DOBBS: Well, I am going through a whole list of things they would like to do but I'm going to constrain myself. Let's go to the issue of this election.
Five point, Karen, in the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll. Outside of margin of error, favoring President Bush, significant or just another poll?
TUMULTY: Well, all of us were here recovering pollaholics. It's sort of where...
DOBBS: Well, we are going to binge for another week.
TUMULTY: That's right.
DOBBS: So, don't put any extra pressure on yourself.
TUMULTY: Well, once again, we will go through all of our caveats. The -- in a lot of poll, the registered voter number is significantly closer than this likely voter screen and in a high turnout election, if this turns out to be, that's the number to be watching right now. And of course, the battleground states remain a lot closer. And in a lot -- in most of them, more favorable terrain for John Kerry at this moment.
SIMON: The latest "Newsweek" came out over the weekend, what we found actually is the president is ahead by one or two points by likely voters. Now, that contrast to a week before when the president was head by five points. Also the CNN/Gallup poll, a week ago, there was an 8 point lead by the president. As we have always said, is to average together the national polls and also to watch the trends. It's momentum and the movement that matters.
DOBBS: The poll of polls that we put together, Bill Schneider reporting here, showing about three points, within the margin of error nationally. But I, Karen, anticipating, Roger, Marcus, we might have some disagreement about polls and their ethnicities, accuracy. I wanted us to take a look at where these polls were a year ago, this week, leading in to the election, a week from the election. And there you see, In 2000, Bush was ahead of Gore, 47-43 by our own poll. The "Washington Post" had bush Up 48-45, Reuters/Zogby, 45-42. Today, Reuters/Zogby 48-45, "Post" 48-49 and in the CNN/USA TODAY"/Gallup poll 51-46. So...
SIMON: It should be pointed out, Lou, all of those polls in 2000 had the wrong popular vote winner. In fact Al Gore won the popular vote.
DOBBS: That was, actually what I was trying to demonstrate.
MABRY: I wish had the "Newsweek," not to blast it, but we actually had Gore up a little bit on the last weekend.
DOBBS: Oh, Marcus, you are such a (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Come on.
MABRY: I've got to tell you. I've got to tell you.
DOBBS: Oh, man. Well, let's turn to issue of Bill Clinton, Roger, is he going to work?
Vice President Gore chose not to bring him out -- the heavy gun 2000. Is this going to work for Senator Kerry in your view?
SIMON: I think it will help a little. I have to say, a huge crowd, 100 to 120,000 is what they are estimating in Philadelphia. And you have to remember in 2000, the Monica Lewinsky scandal was still a lot fresher than it is now. And Gore was asked everywhere whether he wanted to distance himself from President Clinton. John Kerry doesn't have that problem. Bill Clinton is the biggest celebrity in the party. He energizes the base. I'm not sure he's going to change the minds of many undecided voters. I was just a little worried because he looked a little tired and much thinner than used to seeing him and I just wish he would put on a coat outdoors and take care of himself.
DOBBS: Well, you're compassionate independents of the press exerting itself. I thought the president looked pretty good actually, Marcus.
MABRY: Yes, a lot of folks told me he thought he looked really good. I think the important thing here is about getting out the base and I think particularly John Kerry has problems among African- Americans. Bill Clinton was loved by African-American.
DOBBS: Let's talk about that, because there's been some concern from Democratic strategists that -- he -- that Kerry is polling just half of what Gore did in 2000.
MABRY: And Bush is polling twice what he got in 2000.
DOBBS: How significant is that?
MABRY: I think it's really significant. I think it's significant, I've been surprised the Republicans waited so long to go after conservative, social conservative African-American in black churches. Their their presence, faith-based initiative, their stance on gay marriage and I think they are finally doing it. And I think they will reap some benefits from it.
DOBBS: President Bush will?
MABRY: Absolutely.
DOBBS: And Karen, your thought, as we are wrapping up here, about what is the most critical step here in the next few days for both of these candidates?
TUMULTY: Well, what we saw today points right to it. It's all about turnout, and a lot of the Democratic effort to register new voters has been very much focused in the -- in urban areas, the African-American community.
DOBBS: And, Roger, are the Republicans running a deficit here in organizing new voters in their registration drives?
SIMON: They've registered many new voters, too. The question is who can get their voters the polls on November 2nd.
DOBBS: That's the job of Arnold Schwarzenegger toward the end of this week I take it.
SIMON: In the big van.
MABRY: If he can carry them out. DOBBS: Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, Marcus Mabry, thank you very much for being here. And that means we poll -- I remember that poll, it was great.
Still ahead, the results of our poll tonight and a preview of what's ahead here tomorrow. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Now the results of "Tonight's Poll." I the anxiety has been building, the anticipation overwhelming, 44 percent of you say, the three strike sentences law should be preserved, 56 percent say, you do not. And right now according to Peter Viles, in California, 66 percent of the people supporting proposition 66. We'll see how that develops over the course of the week.
Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us tomorrow. K. Maxwell, president of the League of Women voters has found reasons to be concerned about the integrity of the our voting system in key states around the country. She'll be joining us in our special report, "Democracy at Risk." Please join us. For all us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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Aired October 25, 2004 - 18:00 ET
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LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, President Bush leads Senator Kerry in the latest national opinion poll. Both Bush and Kerry today rolled out their star power.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WILLIAM J. CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: In eight days, John Kerry's going to make America the comeback country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUDY GIULIANI, FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY: We can't take a chance in going back to where we were before September 11, 2001.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Florida, a critical swing state.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You guys are making democracy happen here in Florida.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: And both campaigns are mobilizing their supporters and focusing on the undecided.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm calling on behalf of President Bush.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: We'll have a special report.
Democrats and Republicans battling for control of the House. My guests tonight are the two Democratic and Republican congressmen who are leading their party's campaigns to control the House of Representatives.
And violent crime drops again. One of the policies responsible: Three-strike sentencing laws. It's now under attack. A special report.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, October 25th. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
Tonight, President Bush is leading Senator Kerry in the latest national opinion poll. The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows the president with a 5 percent lead among likely voters.
Today, President Bush campaigned with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Senator Kerry campaigned with former President Bill Clinton.
Frank Buckley is following the Kerry campaign. He is in Philadelphia tonight. Dana Bash with the Bush campaign tonight in Davenport, Iowa. And Bill Schneider in Washington tonight will report on these latest poll findings.
We go to Frank Buckley first -- Frank.
FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, a much anticipated appearance here in Philadelphia with former President Clinton appearing at a rally for the first time with Senator John Kerry.
And, if there was any doubt at all about President Clinton's star power within the Democratic Party, the huge crowd that gathered here in downtown Philadelphia dispelled it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BUCKLEY (voice-over): It was the picture of brotherly love, as former President Bill Clinton joined Senator John Kerry for a rally for an estimated 100,000 to 120,000 people in downtown Philadelphia.
CLINTON: From time to time, I have been called the comeback kid. In eight days, John Kerry's going to make America the comeback country.
BUCKLEY: It's Mr. Clinton's first public appearance since bypass surgery seven weeks ago meant to energize Democrats, especially African-Americans, and to remind other voters of the job growth and budget surplus of the Clinton era.
Clinton comparing his administration with President Bush's.
CLINTON: On the economy, we have just lived through four years of the first job losses in 70 years, record bankruptcies, middle-class incomes declining and poverty going up.
In Pennsylvania alone, you've lost 70,000 jobs, this compared with the 219,000 you gained by this time when that last fellow was president -- me.
BUCKLEY: Kerry's embrace of the former president, a departure from the strategy of Al Gore in 2000, who, in the wake of Monicagate, kept Clinton at arm's length.
Kerry believes Clinton helps.
SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I asked the president before we came out here -- I said, Mr. President, can you tell me anything that you have in common with George W. Bush, and he thought for a moment, and he said, in eight days and 12 hours, we will both be former presidents.
BUCKLEY: While this former president's appearance provided the Kerry campaign's picture of the day, news from Iraq gave Kerry a chance to go after the president on the issue both men would like to own, security.
Kerry jumping on reports that 380 tons of powerful explosives have gone missing in Iraq.
KERRY: This is one of the great additional blunders of Iraq. The unbelievable incompetence of this administration step after step has put our troops at greater and greater risk, overextended the American military, isolated the United States, put a greater financial burden on the American people. George W. Bush has failed the test of commander in chief.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BUCKLEY: And tomorrow, Senator Kerry stays on the security theme, delivering a speech on Homeland Security, domestic security. Tonight, Senator Kerry's in Michigan and Wisconsin. President Clinton -- former President Clinton, meanwhile, in South Miami for a couple of rallies.
And, Lou, we learned later in the day today that President Clinton will remain active for the Kerry campaign at the end of the week. On Friday, he'll be appearing in Nevada, Saturday in New Mexico, and then on Sunday in his home state of Arkansas -- Lou.
DOBBS: A busy schedule for the president, seven weeks after bypass surgery.
Frank Buckley reporting from Philadelphia.
Thank you.
President Bush today hammered Senator Kerry on his national security policies. President Bush accused the senator of having a wait-and-see approach to the war on terror.
Dana Bash is traveling with president and she joins us now From Davenport, Iowa -- Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Well, Lou, the president started the day in Colorado, a state that he won handily last time around, but polls show are very, very close there.
So the president, with Rudy Giuliani by his side, launched his last week of full campaigning by giving really what was a blistering and mocking recitation of what he says Senator Kerry will do as president, and that is he essentially said not keep America as safe as Mr. Bush is.
Now he accused the senator of being a leader who would be on the defense, not offense, and even appealed to Democrats by saying that he is not in the mold of some Democratic greats, like FDR and JFK.
And Mr. Bush also defended himself against Senator Kerry who, time and time again, had said that Mr. Bush botched finding Osama bin Laden in the battle of Tora Bora. Kerry -- he used a Kerry quote from three years ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: At the time, Senator Kerry said about Tora Bora, "I think we've been smart, I think administration leadership has done well, and we are on the right track." And all I can say is that I am George W. Bush and I approve of that message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Now all of that is what the White House wanted the headlines to be today, not a story that showed that 380 tons of explosives are now missing in Iraq.
Now the president did not mention that in his speech, devoted entirely almost to terrorism and Iraq, but top Bush aides defend against the Kerry camp's accusation that perhaps the White House is trying to cover it up by not disclosing it.
They say that they were -- didn't want to release information piecemeal, that they were still trying to get the facts, and White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett shot back that the Kerry campaign is simply trying to rip from the headlines and, again, as they've said before, if he wants to talk about terrorism and national security, it fine with them because they think that that is playing on the Bush campaign's turf.
But, Lou, Bush aides privately do admit having the story in "The New York Times" this morning eight days out is not all that good for them at this point -- Lou.
DOBBS: Dana, where the is the president headed from Davenport?
BASH: From Davenport, he is going to Wisconsin. That is one of state, Lou, that was very, very close last time around. Just by about 5,000 votes, the president lost. The White House is hoping that is going to be one of those blue states that Mr. Bush can turn red, perhaps, hopefully, from their point of view, as an insurance policy in case he loses important states like Ohio and Florida.
DOBBS: Dana, thank you very much.
Dana Bash reporting from Davenport, Iowa.
Significant new poll numbers tonight. The latest CNN/""USA Today"/Gallup poll gives President Bush a 5 percent lead over Senator Kerry. Our Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KERRY: God bless, you all! Thank you!
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): It's getting closer. This weekend's CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows George W. Bush leading John Kerry by 5 points among likely voters nationwide, 51 percent to 46 percent. A week ago, Bush was leading by 8 points. A 5-point lead is within the margin of error for this poll.
Among all registered voters, the race is even closer: Bush 49 percent, Kerry 47 percent. Today's CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll comes after four others released this weekend. They show a narrow Bush lead among likely voters, ranging from 1 percent to 5 percent. The average: Bush 49 percent, Kerry 46 percent.
Both campaigns are rallying the base. Democrats have brought out Bill Clinton, while Bush himself is playing to the GOP base.
BUSH: I'm a compassionate conservative and proudly so.
SCHNEIDER: Both campaigns are also going after swing voters, the Bush campaign by bringing out Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger, while Kerry himself is playing to swing voters.
KERRY: This isn't about being a Democrat or a Republican. It's about bringing Democrats and Republicans together for a higher purpose.
SCHNEIDER: How many swing voters are still out there? The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows 7 percent of voters have not firmly made up their minds. Sixty-two percent of the remaining swing voters are women, most of them unmarried. What political figure is known to appeal to women, particularly on economic issues?
CLINTON: On the economy, we have just lived through four years of the first job losses in 70 years.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: How divided is the country? The poll asked voters whether they felt President Bush is more of a uniter or a divider. The answer: 48 percent call Bush a uniter; 48 percent call him a divider.
Lou, Americans are divided over whether Bush is dividing the country. Yikes!
DOBBS: Well, as I recall, Bill, the poll is something of an improvement because it was about 50-50 six months ago on that issue.
Let's look at some of these numbers. Now this poll is one of the wider margins given President Bush. Put that in some context because these polls, as you recall, in 2000 were not terrifically accurate.
SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, the polls show a margin for Bush ranging from 1 point to 5 points. This is at the outer edge. This is a 5- point lead. "TIME" magazine also shows a 5-point lead. But the averages we saw is about 3 points.
Every one of these polls is within the margin of error. I should point out that the new ABC News/"Washington Post" tracking poll has Kerry 1 point ahead.
You know, the bottom line here is it's too close to call in all these polls.
DOBBS: And all of these polls, which may or may not be helpful to the strategists, probably reflecting our own eagerness and anxiousness to get to the result as quickly as possible, but we've got another week at least for that.
Bill Schneider, thank you very much.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
DOBBS: Bill, I want you to listen carefully to this next poll. It wasn't within your stable of polls there, your poll of polls. Another poll says President Bush has won the support of a key group of Americans, a group that has correctly, in fact, chosen the next president in nearly every election in the past half-century.
More than 300,000 students in grades Kindergarten through 12 participated in "The Weekly Reader" poll. The poll gives President Bush 65 percent support, Senator Kerry 33 percent. "Weekly Reader"'s staff say younger students tend to reflect the views of their parents, while older students are more likely to express their own opinions.
Still ahead, the battle to win votes in Florida escalates. Both parties launching a final offensive on the ground. We'll have a special report.
And the fight to defend three-strike sentencing laws, one of the policies responsible for a decade-long decline in crime.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARC KLAAS, FATHER OF POLLY KLAAS: We're getting the right guys in this net of three strikes and incarcerating them for long periods of time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: Our special report is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, Chief Justice William Rehnquist is recovering from throat surgery after he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer. Rehnquist underwent a tracheotomy Saturday at the Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. A Supreme Court spokeswoman said Rehnquist is expected to leave the hospital later this week and is expected to return to work Monday. Rehnquist is 80 years old.
A battle is underway tonight in California over a controversial proposal that could put as many as 26,000 convicted felons back on the streets. Over the past decade, California's violent crime rate has been cut nearly in half. One reason for the decline, say the experts, is the state's tough three-strikes-you're-out sentencing law. But now many in California want to soften the law.
Peter Viles reports from Los Angeles.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Affirmative. Thank you.
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It sounds like the plot from one his movies. Crime is way down in California, the new governor wants to keep it that way, but the entire state is about to cut criminals a break.
GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: We all know if Proposition 66 would pass, criminals will get out of jails. They will be roaming our streets and our neighborhoods, and then our state will be unsafe once again.
VILES: California's three-strikes-and-you're-out sentencing law was born amid outrage over the murder of 12-year-old Polly Klaas. After one violent crime, a second felony, whether it's violent or not, doubles your sentence. A third felony, if it follows two violent crimes, is 25 years to life.
Proponents, including Polly Klaas's father, say the law has worked. California's crime rate at a 39-year low.
KLAAS: In the course of the last four years, is that our prison population has pretty much evened out at about 160,000, yet crime continues to go down, which tells me that we're getting the right guys in this net of three strikes and incarcerating them for long periods of time.
VILES: But opponents say the law does nothing but fill California prisons with petty criminals.
VINCENT SCHIRALDI, JUSTICE POLICY INSTITUTE: That's not what the voters voted for. They didn't vote to put nonviolent offenders in prison for life for stealing a slice of pizza or writing a bad check, but that's what the outcome of three strikes has been thus far.
VILES: Proposition 66 would change the rules. The second and third strike would have to be violent crimes, and it's retroactive. Prosecutors say 26,000 criminals would be released from prison, including John Bunyard, a two-time murder known as the Nob Hill rapist.
The governor and law enforcement face an uphill battle. A poll released October 13 shows 65 percent in favor of limiting the three- strikes law, only 18 percent opposed.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: A lot of the big money behind Prop 66 comes from a Sacramento businessman named Jerry Keenan. Now his son, Jerry Keenan's son, is serving time in Fulsome Prison for vehicular manslaughter, and, if his father prevails, if Prop 66 passes, he would likely be released from prison several years earlier -- Lou.
DOBBS: Pete, to be clear, as a result of Proposition 66, convicted murderers could be released from prison?
VILES: If they're not serving time for the murder, if they served their time for the murder and are now serving time for some other crime, a nonviolent crime, yes, they could be released under Prop 66.
DOBBS: Incredible. Thank you very much.
Peter Viles.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. Do you think the three-strikes sentencing law should be preserved? Yes or no. Cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We will post the results later here in the broadcast.
Coming right up, ground war in Florida. The major parties mobilizing voters more than in any other election. We'll will have a special report for you.
And then, winning the House of Representatives. Congressional candidates fighting fierce battles in several key races around the country. I'll be talking with the heads of the major party congressional committees on how those races could shape the House.
That and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: No paper record required in Florida voting. A federal judge today threw out a lawsuit that challenges paperless electronic voting in Florida. Congressman Robert Wexler had filed the lawsuit claiming paper records would be needed, if Florida were to recount its votes again this year, as it did four years ago. The judge ruled Florida's paperless machines provide what he called sufficient safe guards in the event of a recount. Congressman Wexler says he will appeal.
Democrats and Republicans are appealing to voters across the State of Florida after just 537 votes separated the president from Vice President Gore in 2000. Each campaign has now a massive organization of volunteers on the ground going door-to-door, trying to win Florida's 27 critical electoral votes.
Our Senior White House Correspondent John King reports from Brandon, Florida. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ground zero in the fight for Florida, and Arthenia Joyner doesn't like to take no for an answer.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, because I've got to go do so many things.
KING: Joyner pushes this man to take advantage of early voting and promises to keep track.
ARTHENIA JOYNER (D), FLORIDA STATE REPRESENTATIVE: I'm going come back and make sure.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, of course. Yes, yes.
JOYNER: OK.
KING: The ground war is waged one door, one voter at a time. Tell Joyner, a Democratic state representative, you've got company, and she'll invite herself in.
JOYNER: You know that early voting's going on right now.
KING: Democrats are encouraged by early voting turnout in African-American neighborhoods in Tampa and elsewhere. They think it could be a difference here in Florida and credit an organizing push far superior to four years ago.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Voter valet.
KING: Volunteers with vans target registered Democrats with a poor history of turning out to vote.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You guys are making democracy happen here in Florida.
KING: Spanish speakers are in demand as volunteers sign up to work the phones, and local Democrats still bitter at the contested election of four years ago welcome all the volunteer help pouring in from out of state for the final week push.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you for being here.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you for being here.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Enjoy the humidity.
KING: In a state decided by just 537 votes last time, every vote and every volunteer matters.
Team Bush promises not to be outworked on the ground.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm Harriet Ackerly (ph). I'm calling on behalf of President Bush. KING: Barbecue was a reward for early voting in Pinellas County, the St. Petersburg-Clearwater area. This is GOP headquarters in Brandon, just outside Tampa.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, if you can go in groups of twos or threes, inside each bag, you'll find a clipboard, and it will give the specific houses and addresses that you will go to.
KING: Computers crunch the names and numbers nowadays, and the appeals are carefully targeted. This leaflet draws contrasts on abortion and gay marriage in English and Spanish for the area's growing population of Latino Catholics.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're going to be splitting up. There's about -- let's see. We've got 28 houses on this street.
KING: Alex Yucare (ph) is only 17, but an organizing veteran, plenty of stories about feisty dog encounters. This, his first effort to court the vote of a voice from above.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. I'm sorry to bother you. We're just volunteers for the Bush-Cheney campaign.
KING: No one home means leaving some literature. This, the type of stop that makes all the walking worth it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can I get a Bush sign?
KING: Twenty-eight houses on the list this day. Dozens more in the final week ahead. Democracy at its most basic, and time running short.
John King, CNN, Brandon, Florida.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Coming up next, an all-out battle for control of Congress. I'll be joined by the chairs of the Republican and Democratic Congressional Committees next.
And the presidential candidates take the fight for the White House to key battleground states in these final days of the election. Columnist Peggy Noonan, Democratic strategist Kiki McLean join me next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: A week from tomorrow, voters across the country casting ballots for all 435 seats in the House of Representations. The Republicans widely expected to maintain control of the House.
Joining me now from Buffalo, New York, Congressman Tom Reynolds. He's the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. From Washington, D.C., Congressman Matsui, the chairman of the National Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Gentlemen, good to have you here.
REP. ROBERT MATSUI (D-CA), NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Nice to be here.
REP. TOM REYNOLDS (R-NY), NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Great to be here.
DOBBS: Congressman Matsui, let me begin with you, if I may. You need 12, 13 seats to gain control of the House. What do you judge your odds to be?
MATSUI: I think we have a very good chance of taking the House back. Our Democratic incumbents are protected. Obviously, we have five seats in Texas, but, right now, we're, with three of them, within the margin of error ahead.
And we're going after 29 Republicans, nine Republican open seats in which we think we can win seven or eight, and we have 20 Republican incumbents in which we have great challengers, and if we win 12, 13, 14 of those, we'll take the House back, and I just have to say I think the momentum's shifting.
Tomorrow in "The Washington Post," it'll show that Senator Kerry will go ahead in the poll by 1 point, and I think his lead will start increasing over time.
DOBBS: Congressman Reynolds, something tells me you're not going to agree with Congressman Matsui's mathematics or prognosis?
REYNOLDS: Well, I'll use Charlie Cook, the pundit who reviews these races. He says there's 37 seats that are up for grabs up in the House right now. We only need to win seven to hold control. I think there's no question, using "The Washington Post" story of Cook today, that there's no chance that the House will go Democratic in his eyes, is, first of all, we will have a House Republican majority.
And the second question is, how many of the seats in these hotly contested battles out there. both in Texas and in seats throughout the country, will we win to see if my goal of bringing back 228 members is the reality on election night for the final outcome.
DOBBS: Well, Congressman Matsui's point, Congressman Reynolds, is relevant certainly to this extent, and that is that you do have more seats being contested than the Democrats. Is that of vulnerability?
REYNOLDS: Well, I don't know that we have as many contested. When you look at the Texas seats -- there's five in there -- two are member to member, and then there's three or four that polls show that we're leading against incumbents.
When you look at some of our seats that are open, we have a few hotly-contested open seats that the Democrats thought were slam dunks, such as Jack Quinn's right in New York's 27 next door to me, and that's a neck-and-neck race that's going to go right to the finish line.
And while many thought that Max Burns in Georgia 12 would be an automatic defeat the way Georgia redistricting was done, Max is holding his won to what will be a bitter-fought race in Georgia. And when we look at the open seats in the State of Washington, I think we're doing fine.
DOBBS: Congressman Matsui, in Georgia 12, as Congressman Reynolds put it, Max Burns, how much trouble is he in by your read?
MATSUI: I think turnout's going to be critical in this race. One of the problems right now, Andy Kohut said this in "The New York Times" last week that the polling data really doesn't demonstrate what's going to happen. I think everybody knows right now, in fact I think your -- just recent segment on Florida indicates that you're going to see massive turnout.
You can't do the turnout within 24 hours. You have to begin working on that within eight, 10 months in advance. And the Democrats, the 527s, we can't coordinate with them, but they were involved in that very early. And secondly (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
DOBBS: But you can have -- you can have happy coincidences, is that another way of putting it?
MATSUI: Well, no. We can't coordinate. The 527s are doing their own thing.
DOBBS: No, I understand that. It was a poor attempt at humor on my part.
MATSUI: No, no, no, that's OK. That's OK. I just don't want to say anything that would be implicating in a negative way here. But also, the right track/wrong track, satisfied/dissatisfied -- over the last 12 months, Lou, the American public has basically said, by 10 or 15 points, they are very dissatisfied about the direction of the country.
And I might just mention that Charlie Cook said the Republicans at this time in 1994 couldn't take the House back either. So I kind of discount sometimes Charlie Cook and some of the pundits' comments.
DOBBS: Well, I'm sure Charlie Cook appreciates the endorsement there.
Congressman Reynolds, let me turn to you on one -- I think a critical issue here. Are you getting any sense at all in these race, 435 of them, that the national issues which are driving, of course, the president and Senator Kerry's race, are going to be relevant to the congressional races? Or is it truly local politics, district by district?
REYNOLDS: First, my good friend, Bob Matsui was using the generic polling when we were breaking in July to take an August recess was going to be the factor of our doom, and quite frankly the generics and many public polls now have us ahead. We've said all along that these races will be built from the ground up, custom-fit, district by district. There was no coattails in 2000, one of the closest elections of my lifetime. There will be no coattails in 2004.
DOBBS: Congressman Reynolds, Congressman Matsui, thank you both for being here, and to each of you gentlemen, good luck on November 2.
REYNOLDS: Thank you.
MATSUI: Thank you.
DOBBS: Still ahead, America votes. A new poll showing President Bush ahead of Senator Kerry by a margin of about five points among likely voters. I'll be talking with advisers from both campaigns, and the candidates targeting key battleground states. Just eight days to go. Our panel of the top political journalists in the country join me when we continue.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The final eight days of this campaign featuring some of the biggest stars of the Democratic and Republican parties. As we reported, former President Bill Clinton today campaigning in Pennsylvania and Florida. President Bush this week has the help of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California.
Joining me now, two star strategists of these parties. In a moment, I'll be talking with Republican adviser and columnist Peggy Noonan, but first Kiki McLean, an adviser to the Kerry-Edwards campaign joining me tonight from Washington. Kiki, good to have you here.
KIKI MCLEAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: How are you, Lou?
DOBBS: I am outstanding. I hope you are well, looking at these polls. The CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll shows your candidate five points behind. But nearly every other poll has it very tight indeed.
MCLEAN: It is a tight race. You are right. There are other polls that show Senator Kerry a point up, but what is important is the momentum, I think, is going with Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards, especially after we hear and learn about more mistakes of this administration that are really quite grave in their nature, with 380 pounds of explosives stockpiled in Iraq that have been stolen and are in the hands of the bad guys under George Bush's watch. Those kind of things, those kind of mistakes that are making America realize it's time for a change.
DOBBS: Time for a change, but Democrats and Senator Kerry are going to the past, rolling out former President Bill Clinton to a crowd of about 100,000 in Philadelphia, looking for all the world like a rock star up there.
MCLEAN: Well, I'll tell you what, doesn't it say something when somebody who's just had open heart surgery believes it is important enough to get out and come out and speak out for change? If you were...
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Wait, wait, wait. Kiki, do you really believe -- do you believe anybody could have stopped Bill Clinton from going out there to greet that crowd?
MCLEAN: But what you also saw was a reminder of what real leadership can be. And John Kerry can bring us that kind of leadership, about what it's like to create jobs, not lose them, about what it's like to have solid diplomatic relationships and respect around the world and not lose that respect.
DOBBS: You know, I know we're getting right to it, but when you say something like -- I have got to ask you. Why in the world should we believe that Senator Kerry can be anymore effective than George Bush in getting the United Nations to make sense, or France and Germany to provide troops when both of their governments have said they would not?
MCLEAN: Well, first of all because he's willing to open the dialogue and have the dialogue. Part of the problem you have with George Bush is there is no credibility. At no point, Lou, does this man ever take responsibility for anything. The Abu Ghraib prison scandals. The job losses in America. Now, all these explosives in the hands of bad guys. I have yet to hear George Bush, and particularly on the weapons of mass destruction, say you know what, this is wrong. It was a mistake. I take responsibility for it.
You have to be willing to admit and recognize what's wrong so you can set about fixing it. John Kerry's prepared to do that. He's laid out a solid plan for that, and it's having that kind of credibility and respect that gives us a chance at the diplomatic table again.
DOBBS: At this point, Senator Kerry rolling out -- let's go back to Bill Clinton. The fact of the matter is, Bill Clinton is going to be -- President Clinton is going to be in Florida, a number of other states, a strategy that Al Gore did not follow in 2000. Are there any concerns on your part that -- while Bill Clinton is dearly loved by the Democratic Party, or at least most of it, that he may not find quite the same reaction among Republicans and independents?
MCLEAN: I think Bill Clinton has a strong record of leadership, and Americans respect that. And I think he's somebody who can speak with authority about what that kind of leadership can provide. He's a strong endorsement to the kind of future John Kerry wants for this country, in terms of job creation, a stronger economy, making sure that we're working for people again and not running around trying to take care of our rich buddies and give contracts out to, you know, other office holder's companies. I think that's important.
DOBBS: All right, Kiki, then you give me the forecast. What will the vote be on November 2nd? MCLEAN: I think it'll be very close, but I think in the end, John Kerry is going to be our next president and John Edwards will be our next vice president. And you know what? I think that's a day full of hope for this country.
DOBBS: All right, you are not going to give me the margin. Let me ask you, are we going to know on the evening or -- of November 2nd or early morning of November 3rd?
MCLEAN: I believe when the polls are closed and every vote has been counted, we'll know. But that's important. Every vote has to be counted. The one thing I would say, whether -- regardless of the party you're in, is you've got to go vote. You've got to stand up and make your voice heard and make sure your vote is counted.
DOBBS: Are you trying to convince me, Kiki?
MCLEAN: I want to make sure you vote, Lou.
DOBBS: You better believe I will.
Kiki McLean, thanks a lot for being here.
MCLEAN: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: I am joined now by Peggy Noonan, former speechwriter for President Reagan. She's taken leave from writing her column in "The Wall Street Journal" to serve as an unpaid adviser to the Republican National Committee. Good to have you here.
PEGGY NOONAN, ADVISER TO RNC: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: You just heard Kiki. She sounds pretty confident. She says it's a time for change. She thinks it's a wrapped up deal.
NOONAN: Well, I guess she does. I disagree with her. I don't think the outcome is going to be the one she expects, but could I just jump in on one of the many issues she raised...
DOBBS: Of course you can.
NOONAN: ... which is the explosives and that horrible...
DOBBS: Oh, we're going to get to that one way or the other.
NOONAN: All right, well, let's start with it.
Look, war is hell. War is a mess. It looks like hundreds of tons of these horrible explosives, which can do many terrible things in many terrible ways, are missing. I've talked to people about it all day today. The first thought I had was, whoa! I thought there were no weapons of mass destruction. This sounds like a weapon of mass destruction to me.
DOBBS: Well, it certainly...
NOONAN: The sort of stuff that Saddam had could be used to do terrible things. Talked to Bernie Kerik today -- go ahead...
DOBBS: Can I insert here so everybody understands what you are really saying. That a number of these high explosives, 377 tons of them, a portion of them had been sealed in point of fact by the IAEA whose responsibility it is to look over nuclear materials because these types of explosives HM-AX are used to detonate nuclear weapons.
NOONAN: They can be. They can be. They can be used in a very small amount to take down an airliner.
DOBBS: Less than a pound?
NOONAN: Yes, they can take down buildings. They can do terrible things. Explosives like this, stuff like this was all over Iraq when the U.S. army went in. I talked to Bernie Kerik earlier today. He said we were finding them in the fields. Explosives, huge caches of them and destroying them. We were finding them in caves and in all sorts of places. Getting them exploded and taking care of them, getting rid of them. The point remains, it is good that Saddam is not now in charge of those things, and I think the point is underscored, these horrible explosives and damaging devices did exist and were there. It is also true that these explosives might have been used in the advancement of the creation of a nuclear program for Iraq down the road, in the past and down the road. It's not good that it's missing. We're going to have to find it. But it does illustrate I think some points that Mr. Bush has been trying to make, about the badness and evil of the Iraqi setup.
DOBBS: Yes.
NOONAN: And also about how dangerous it was there.
DOBBS: Yes. This is a confusing period of time for some people. Obviously, because, one, those who felt that Saddam Hussein deserved to be removed, whether as a matter of regime change or his possession of weapons of mass destruction, the fact is the way in which the administration has managed, post-May 1, that is the end of so-called major combat operations is the larger issue. This is an extraordinary, I think you would agree, a lapse of judgment, and oversight on the part of the...
NOONAN: The lapse of something. I am certain of that. I mean, you don't lose...
DOBBS: Let me assert my opinion on this one, Peggy.
NOONAN: Go ahead.
DOBBS: 377 tons of high explosive in one of the most unstable regions of the country, that is -- to put at its kindest, a lapse of judgment.
NOONAN: It's a lapse of something. Oversight or whatever. Who was involved? I think the reporting of it was also kind of late. Apparently it happened a while back, we're not sure exactly when it happened, and the reporting of it has just broken. DOBBS: Can I interrupt you?
NOONAN: This is bad but a larger point ought to be made. I think about war and this is something I always talk about with my son. My son is always upset about the way the war going. Not with the invasion itself. Not with the victory in which we got Iraq from Saddam but decisions that have been made since. I say, look, war is hell and it's a mess. Every president knows this, that's why they don't like to fight them. It's a horrible thing. That's one.
Another thing is wars don't go well in the beginning as a rule. Henry Kissinger earlier today mentioned D-Day, you know? He said, would you have complained on D-Day that we had too many or too few troops on Omaha Beach?
My comparison is always the Civil War. Poor Abe Lincoln, a very great man, had nothing but 2 1/2, three years of terrible, hard news, and mistakes, and missteps and mess-ups. That's what war is like. That doesn't mean you say, OK, we're over, we're out of here. A mess has been made. We're going to have to clean it up.
DOBBS: I will remind you that President Lincoln did bring in Ulysses S. Grant because he got tired of it.
NOONAN: He did, it was about 2 1/2 years in.
DOBBS: There's nothing like the compression of time in modern America and the world. Peggy, I want to just take a moment here. We're going to go to Davenport, Iowa. President Bush has just started speaking there. I just want, if we may, just listen to him for just a few seconds.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American president in these times of danger must lead with consistency and strength. In a war sometimes your tactics change. But not your principles. America has seen how I do my job. Even when you might not agree with me. You know what I believe, where I stand, and what I intend to do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: President Bush in Davenport, Iowa, sort of a symbol of where we are right now representative of this race. Iowa won by Al Gore in 2000. 7 electoral votes. President Bush is slightly behind there in the polling, but nonetheless, going for the votes.
NOONAN: It's grabable. He's going for it, and in the electoral college landscape, we've got every seven votes counts, and you know they're still pounding Florida in a very big way. I was down there pounding it with them. I was going door-to-door like one of your earlier reports. They're still pounding Ohio. They're still pounding Pennsylvania.
DOBBS: A hard-fought contest, and it looks like it's going to be, as if anybody needs me to say this to enlarge the body of public knowledge, a very tight race. Peggy Noonan, thanks for being here to give us some insight.
NOONAN: Thanks so much.
DOBBS: Still ahead, the final week on this campaign trail. We'll talk with three of the country's top political journalists.
And major backlash tonight over what one British newspaper had to say about President Bush. I love "The Guardian." Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Another extraordinary election blunder by one of Britain's most liberal newspapers "The Guardian." "The Guardian" of course is the very same newspaper that encouraged its readers to write pro-Kerry letters to voters in Ohio, a critical battleground state, and then changed its mind, after a howl of protest from Ohioans. The newspaper is now facing a storm of criticism after one of its columnists suggested President Bush in fact should be assassinated.
Columnist Charlie Brooker wrote, quote, "John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr., where are you now that we need you?"
And where in the world were "The Guardians'" editors? Brooker today apologized for any offense caused by the column. Brooker said his comments were intended as an ironic joke and not a call to action. Well, Mr. Brooker, we can tell you quite unequivocally there was nothing funny at all about your remarks.
Joining me for more on this final week of the campaign, three of the country's top political journalists. In Washington, Karen Tumulty, "TIME" magazine. Roger Simon, "U.S. News & World Report." Joining me here in New York Marcus Mabry of "Newsweek" magazine. Karen, start with the major developments. 377 tons of high explosive went missing in Iraq.
KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Right, and this is 1 1/2 times the weight of the Statute of Liberty. Just so you get a sense of how much of this stuff we are talking about. I think once again is exactly the kind of news that George Bush does not want on the front pages when you have eight days left to go in an election where his prosecution of the war in Iraq and more importantly the aftermath of the war in Iraq is Topic A and the single issue that's dominating the entire election.
DOBBS: And let's turn to Marcus, this story by Brooker in "The Guardian." First, calling for a writing campaign to voters in Ohio. Now this. Come on! This is now unfunny by -- and that's the nicest thing I can say about the editorial direction being followed.
MABRY: Yes, I think it's ridiculous. However, I'm not surprised. I mean the British press has very different rules know that the American press. And the tabloid calls for Britain is outrageous and outlandish and we never do the stuff that we do.
DOBBS: "The Guardian" isn't a tabloid. "The Guardian" isn't a tabloid.
MABRY: But the culture is infected. I think all the British newspaper culture is infected.
DOBBS: Does everybody agree?
SIMON: No. This was beyond the pale even for a British publication. If an American columnist had printed in 1984 that it was a shame that the IRA had not assassinated Margaret Thatcher, the British press would have gone bonkers and including "The Guardian."
DOBBS: Why is the American press, Roger, being so reticent on this?
Why aren't they reaction. Why is there rationalization, even apologia. Why in the world aren't they going -- there are lots of words that come to mind. I will use one that we can serviceably here.
SIMON: Because we fought a revolution so we didn't have to lift know to British twits anymore. So, I think we decided just to ignore this guy and not give him anymore publicity which is obviously what he wanted when he wrote it.
MABRY: Lou, I just don't think it's important. We are eight days away from an important election. A plurality of Americans tell us they think this is the most important election of their lifetime. (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
DOBBS: I think it's important -- I think it is important from the standpoint -- frankly, I disagree with. I think it's important from the stand point the national media of this country is not responding. And I find that interesting. Karen, I don't know whether you do or not but I would like to hear your opinion.
TUMULTY: Well, it's despicable. And once you have said it is despicable, what do you do, cancel your subscription?
DOBBS: No, I guess you are challenging to a duel.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: A duel. Maybe one of those debates. I don't know.
MABRY: Him against Zell Miller, we can do that.
DOBBS: Well, I am going through a whole list of things they would like to do but I'm going to constrain myself. Let's go to the issue of this election.
Five point, Karen, in the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll. Outside of margin of error, favoring President Bush, significant or just another poll?
TUMULTY: Well, all of us were here recovering pollaholics. It's sort of where...
DOBBS: Well, we are going to binge for another week.
TUMULTY: That's right.
DOBBS: So, don't put any extra pressure on yourself.
TUMULTY: Well, once again, we will go through all of our caveats. The -- in a lot of poll, the registered voter number is significantly closer than this likely voter screen and in a high turnout election, if this turns out to be, that's the number to be watching right now. And of course, the battleground states remain a lot closer. And in a lot -- in most of them, more favorable terrain for John Kerry at this moment.
SIMON: The latest "Newsweek" came out over the weekend, what we found actually is the president is ahead by one or two points by likely voters. Now, that contrast to a week before when the president was head by five points. Also the CNN/Gallup poll, a week ago, there was an 8 point lead by the president. As we have always said, is to average together the national polls and also to watch the trends. It's momentum and the movement that matters.
DOBBS: The poll of polls that we put together, Bill Schneider reporting here, showing about three points, within the margin of error nationally. But I, Karen, anticipating, Roger, Marcus, we might have some disagreement about polls and their ethnicities, accuracy. I wanted us to take a look at where these polls were a year ago, this week, leading in to the election, a week from the election. And there you see, In 2000, Bush was ahead of Gore, 47-43 by our own poll. The "Washington Post" had bush Up 48-45, Reuters/Zogby, 45-42. Today, Reuters/Zogby 48-45, "Post" 48-49 and in the CNN/USA TODAY"/Gallup poll 51-46. So...
SIMON: It should be pointed out, Lou, all of those polls in 2000 had the wrong popular vote winner. In fact Al Gore won the popular vote.
DOBBS: That was, actually what I was trying to demonstrate.
MABRY: I wish had the "Newsweek," not to blast it, but we actually had Gore up a little bit on the last weekend.
DOBBS: Oh, Marcus, you are such a (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Come on.
MABRY: I've got to tell you. I've got to tell you.
DOBBS: Oh, man. Well, let's turn to issue of Bill Clinton, Roger, is he going to work?
Vice President Gore chose not to bring him out -- the heavy gun 2000. Is this going to work for Senator Kerry in your view?
SIMON: I think it will help a little. I have to say, a huge crowd, 100 to 120,000 is what they are estimating in Philadelphia. And you have to remember in 2000, the Monica Lewinsky scandal was still a lot fresher than it is now. And Gore was asked everywhere whether he wanted to distance himself from President Clinton. John Kerry doesn't have that problem. Bill Clinton is the biggest celebrity in the party. He energizes the base. I'm not sure he's going to change the minds of many undecided voters. I was just a little worried because he looked a little tired and much thinner than used to seeing him and I just wish he would put on a coat outdoors and take care of himself.
DOBBS: Well, you're compassionate independents of the press exerting itself. I thought the president looked pretty good actually, Marcus.
MABRY: Yes, a lot of folks told me he thought he looked really good. I think the important thing here is about getting out the base and I think particularly John Kerry has problems among African- Americans. Bill Clinton was loved by African-American.
DOBBS: Let's talk about that, because there's been some concern from Democratic strategists that -- he -- that Kerry is polling just half of what Gore did in 2000.
MABRY: And Bush is polling twice what he got in 2000.
DOBBS: How significant is that?
MABRY: I think it's really significant. I think it's significant, I've been surprised the Republicans waited so long to go after conservative, social conservative African-American in black churches. Their their presence, faith-based initiative, their stance on gay marriage and I think they are finally doing it. And I think they will reap some benefits from it.
DOBBS: President Bush will?
MABRY: Absolutely.
DOBBS: And Karen, your thought, as we are wrapping up here, about what is the most critical step here in the next few days for both of these candidates?
TUMULTY: Well, what we saw today points right to it. It's all about turnout, and a lot of the Democratic effort to register new voters has been very much focused in the -- in urban areas, the African-American community.
DOBBS: And, Roger, are the Republicans running a deficit here in organizing new voters in their registration drives?
SIMON: They've registered many new voters, too. The question is who can get their voters the polls on November 2nd.
DOBBS: That's the job of Arnold Schwarzenegger toward the end of this week I take it.
SIMON: In the big van.
MABRY: If he can carry them out. DOBBS: Roger Simon, Karen Tumulty, Marcus Mabry, thank you very much for being here. And that means we poll -- I remember that poll, it was great.
Still ahead, the results of our poll tonight and a preview of what's ahead here tomorrow. Stay with us.
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DOBBS: Now the results of "Tonight's Poll." I the anxiety has been building, the anticipation overwhelming, 44 percent of you say, the three strike sentences law should be preserved, 56 percent say, you do not. And right now according to Peter Viles, in California, 66 percent of the people supporting proposition 66. We'll see how that develops over the course of the week.
Thanks for being with us here tonight. Please join us tomorrow. K. Maxwell, president of the League of Women voters has found reasons to be concerned about the integrity of the our voting system in key states around the country. She'll be joining us in our special report, "Democracy at Risk." Please join us. For all us here, thanks for being with us. Good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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