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American Morning
Dems Look to Clinton in Election Homestretch; Does Accutane Cause Depression?
Aired October 25, 2004 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. Just about half-past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
Coming up this morning, the bitter fight for votes. Already both campaigns sending in the lawyers to key battleground states. We're going to take a look at which states are poised for the biggest fights, and also what kind of effect this could have on voter turnout.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: That's what we need, right? Just ask Jack.
Also, the fight over a drug used by thousands of people to fight severe acne. Some people want Accutane off the market because of a reported link to depression and to suicide. Now there appears to be new evidence to support that. Sanjay stops by in a moment to explain all of that to us this morning.
O'BRIEN: A look at our top stories now with Daryn Kagan. She's at the CNN Center. Good morning, Daryn.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Soledad, good morning to you. There is word -- new word this morning of another U.S. soldier who has been killed in Iraq. U.S. military sources saying an improvised explosive device blew up in western Baghdad.
Five other soldiers were injured in that attack.
U.S. officials are concerned about reports that almost four hundred tons of explosives are missing from a former Iraqi military facility. The U.N.'s nuclear monitoring agency says it is extremely concerned. Soledad spoke with Melissa Fleming of the International Atomic Energy Commission earlier this hour.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELISSA FLEMING, SPOKESWOMAN, IAEA: The most immediate concern given the security climate in Iraq is these explosives -- and this is a real massive quantity of explosives -- could have reached the hands of insurgents and could be used with deadly force and consequences against people in Iraq and elsewhere.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAGAN: The CIA task force has reportedly been ordered to investigate. A new round of Sudan peace talks kicks off this morning. Sudan government officials arriving in Nigeria expected to start negotiations with two rebel factions. The talks are aimed at ending what's being called one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Today comes amid reports of new fighting between rebels in the Darfur Region.
That is the news for now. Back to Soledad.
O'BRIEN: All right, Daryn thanks a lot. With just over a week until the presidential election, Democrat John Kerry is hoping for a big boost today. Former President Bill Clinton will make his first campaign appearance today since he had heart surgery just a few weeks ago.
National correspondent Kelly Wallace live in Philadelphia this morning with much more. Hey Kelly, good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning Soledad. A senior Kerry adviser telling us that no one fires up the Democratic base like Bill Clinton, and that it is all about turn out right now so the Kerry campaign has the former president here and then he will also travel to Florida and New Mexico.
Team Bush-Cheney, for its part, says it is not worried.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: (voice-over) The rock star of Democratic politics making his first campaign appearance since his quadruple bypass last month, and team Kerry-Edwards is thrilled, frequently mentioning the former president on the stump.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: As my friend, our friend, President Clinton likes to say...
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They like to talk bad about President Clinton, but let me say this: when he was president of the United States, we weren't losing jobs...
WALLACE: Their strategy, a reversal from Al Gore's decision four years ago not to embrace Bill Clinton. Political observers say that move might have cost Gore victory in key battleground states.
What can Bill Clinton do? He can fire up the Democratic base, especially African-Americans who Senator Kerry has been slow to energize.
According to a recent study, 18 percent of African-Americans say they would vote for President Bush this year. That's double the number who voted for him four years ago. However, other polls show Mr. Bush's support now the same 8 percent as in 2000.
Democratic Congressman Charles Rangel told "INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY" Mr. Bush's policies will actually send African-Americans out for John Kerry.
REP. CHARLES RANGEL (D), NEW YORK: George Bush is going to be the biggest incentive to get minority and middle class people out to vote.
WALLACE: But some Republicans say dispatching Mr. Clinton could be a sign of worry inside Camp Kerry.
REP. PETER KING (R), NEW YORK: That's why they have to bring Bill Clinton into Philadelphia, to bring out the African-American vote because they are so concerned that the African-Americans in large numbers are going to vote for George Bush.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: And some Republicans also say that Bill Clinton could turn off swing voters by reminding them of the scandals during the Clinton presidency, but Kerry's advisers are banking on the former president, reminding those swing voters of the good economic years during the Clinton administration -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, Kelly, how exactly is his health? I know he's recovered and doing better, but I mean -- you know -- the president -- the former president -- is all about hugging and kissing and shaking hands and can he do that just seven weeks after having a quadruple bypass?
WALLACE: Well, it's interesting, Soledad, we have seen the former president in another interview with ABC and he has said that his doctors are advising him to kind of take it slow. To not do events late into the evening, to kind of keep somewhat of a moderate schedule, and if you just sort of look at the former president in that interview he clearly does look as if he has been through what has been obviously a difficult thing. Heart bypass surgery.
So it will be interesting to see him here. We're expecting thousands of people. Not quite clear if he will have sort of the energy that we're so familiar with of Bill Clinton but he clearly is trying to do his part here in Philly and then Florida and New Mexico this week, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Kelly Wallace for us this morning. Kelly thanks.
The Bush campaign is working to nudge a handful of battleground states in its direction. President Bush in New Mexico yesterday talked to voters about the difference between his approach and John Kerry's approach to terrorism.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Your choice in this election could not be clearer. You cannot lead our nation to decisive victory on which the security of every American family depends if you do not see the true dangers of the post-September the 11th world.
My opponent has a September 10th point of view. At his convention he declared that his strategy will be to respond to attacks after America is hit. Those were his words. That would be too late.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Today President Bush will be in Colorado, which was considered a red state but might be back in play. He's going to visit Iowa today and tomorrow with a trip to Wisconsin in between.
HEMMER: Dick Polman is a political reporter for "The Philadelphia Inquirer." He's my guest now in Philadelphia taking the pulse of what's happening politically there. Good morning, welcome here to AMERICAN MORNING.
Let's talk about Bill Clinton first. The significance is what for people living in your state?
DICK POLMAN, "PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER": Well, Bill Clinton is extremely popular with the African-American community. They were his biggest supporters during the Lewinsky scandal. He is the number one Democrat, really, in their eyes. Certainly the number one white Democrat.
And I believe that by bringing him to Philadelphia, it's a signal that what the Democrats are really trying to do more than anything else in Pennsylvania is to galvanize the African-American turnout in the urban areas. In Philadelphia in particular they need a huge outpouring of African-Americans in Philadelphia so that they can get a major edge in the city on the vote that would carry them to victory statewide.
HEMMER: Are you suggesting then the polls are right and Senator Kerry is weak on that front with African-Americans?
POLMAN: Well I mean I -- he's -- I don't think he has a major, you know, warmth connection going with African-Americans but what I think a lot of people forget is that Al Gore we now remember that Al Gore got this huge outpouring from African-Americans in 2000 but that's only in retrospect, it happened in the last couple of days. The polls a week out from the 2000 election did not show what ultimately transpired so in some ways Kerry is in the same place.
Gore outperformed the polls on Election Day four years ago and Senator Kerry is perhaps in a position to do the same thing now.
HEMMER: That's the strategy on the Kerry side. What about the president's side? Where do you see the strategy, not just in Philly but throughout the state of Pennsylvania?
POLMAN: Well I think what he's trying to do here he's been trying to expand his base by signing up lots of new voters who may not be -- who would be perhaps sympathetic to his views. There's a lot of new Republican-leaning suburbanites in some of the new suburbs out in say Lancaster County, in the middle of the state. He's trying to sign them up.
He's also trying to appeal to people who maybe vote Democratic on economic ground but are socially conservative on things like faith, abortion, social issues. And he's I think trying to perhaps appeal to them on that level. HEMMER: Also you have in-person voting, which I guess is another way of saying you have early voting in the state of Pennsylvania. Can you give us a gauge of how that's going so far in your state? And also what's the reaction you're hearing about lawyers questioning the validity of those casting their ballots at this point?
POLMAN: Well I don't think the early voting is anywhere near like what Pennsylvania -- excuse me -- what Florida is experiencing in terms of it's a flood of people. The lawyer issue is really the more interesting one in some ways. Some of it is kind of a microcosm in terms of what's going on in a lot of other states nationwide with sort of this potential litigiousness seeping into the electoral system.
We've got -- the Democrats for example were training a lot of lawyers up in New York to come down here and be on site on election day to sort of monitor what's going on at the polls and perhaps to turn back what they see are attempts by the Republicans to stop people from voting to intimidate people from showing up in massive numbers, particularly in minority communities, so you know the legal community is sort of very much part of the process now and they're almost like on a hair trigger or alert.
HEMMER: All right, Dick thanks for your time. Interesting to see that early voting is not as popular in your state as it is in Florida but we'll measure that later to find out the significance. Thanks.
All right, Dick Polman there in Philly.
If talk of the Electoral College makes your eyes glaze just a bit, a recent Gallup Poll agrees suggesting most Americans in that survey want to get rid of it. Sixty-one percent to 35 percent. Eight days out, though, the presidential race is tight as ever, both camps focused on little else, the Electoral College vote.
Carlos Watson in Atlanta there at the CNN Center, good morning Carlos.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
HEMMER: Want to look at this map right now. It had been there were what? Nineteen battleground states. Gone down to 14 battleground states. Now there are 11. Of those 11, what will change the game come next Tuesday?
WATSON: Well interestingly enough, Bill, conventional wisdom would say focus on Florida or at a minimum focus on Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. But if you take a closer look at both the Bush and the Kerry campaigns, you'll realize that they have strategies to win the Electoral College without Florida.
So if you're President Bush you can afford to lose Florida if for example you pick up some votes in the upper Midwest. By that I mean Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.
The combination there offers 28 electoral votes versus Florida's 27. Conversely if you're John Kerry, where again the conventional wisdom is that you need Florida, actually you could bypass Florida and instead pick up Ohio or maybe head out to the west and pick out some additional votes particularly in Colorado and Nevada. So there are a number of strategies that are a little bit counterintuitive and we shouldn't get locked into focusing on what we saw in 2000.
HEMMER: The president referred to that very thing in an interview over the weekend. Who's going where at this point Carlos?
WATSON: Who's going well you said?
HEMMER: Who's going where?
WATSON: They're going everywhere including Colorado today. In fact the southwest is an interesting place to look, Bill because you know when you talk about swing votes we've gotten locked into talking about security moms, but the reality is that different regions and in different key swing states there is a different swing block so in the Southwest the real swing block are Hispanics where they'll make up anywhere from 12 to 15 percent of the vote in states like Colorado and Nevada. And in a state like New Mexico they'll make up 30 percent of the vote. Now to the extent that President Bush is able to hold on to not just 35 percent but maybe as much as 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, he's likely to win those states.
To the extent that John Kerry can pick up two out of every three Hispanic votes, he's got a real edge in the Southwest.
HEMMER: You refer to in your first answer Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Look to other key states in the Midwest and also look to the Northeast and New Hampshire. What do you see breaking there and with Senator Kerry there in New Hampshire in a few moments too what are you sizing up today?
WATSON: Well, you know, what's interesting when you look at victory or when you look at Florida when you look at Pennsylvania or when you look at Ohio, again, there's a counterintuitive swing group there that could ultimately decide the election and that group in particular are African-Americans. Why do I say African-Americans? To the extent that they constitute ultimately some 15 percent of the vote in those states. The reality is that John Kerry assuming he does as well as Al Gore, and we just saw a new poll earlier, picks up 9 out of every 10 African-American votes, probably frankly has an edge. So you know while seniors are very important in Florida, while seniors are very important in Pennsylvania, the reality is that African-Americans ultimately may be a swing vote in that trio of states.
HEMMER: All right that's today. What's tomorrow Carlos?
WATSON: Well if we tune in tomorrow, we're going to talk about some of the most interesting campaign tactics that we see people using. We're -- we've focused on all of this money spent on television ads, but there's some really intriguing things that both the Bush and the Kerry campaign are doing as well as independent groups are trying to turn out the vote.
HEMMER: See you then, all right?
WATSON: See you then.
HEMMER: Thank you, Carlos. Carlos Watson at the CNN Center -- Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: In a moment here Wal-Mart protestors taking their case to the ancient Aztec temples in Mexico. I will explain that.
O'BRIEN: Also can a drug used to treat acne also lead to depression? Dr. Sanjay Gupta takes a look at that controversy up next. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: There is a fight brewing over the drug Accutane. Accutane is used to treat severe acne and the controversy here is triggered by new research that reveals how the drug may lead to depression in some patients.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta has more this morning for us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
REP. BART STUPAK (D) MICHIGAN: My oldest son B.J. -- Bart, Jr. -- died in May 14th, 2000. He shot himself.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SR. MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Bart, Jr. was 17. Michigan Congressman Bart Stupak blames Accutane for his son's suicide, and he wants it off the market. But until now no one could say just how the drug might lead to depression.
STUPAK: This was the first study that really shows a biological link, physical evidence.
GUPTA: With this high-tech camera, psychiatrist Douglas Bremmer looked at the brains of 13 young adults taking Accutane for acne and another 15 on antibiotics.
In the so-called Accutane brain, activity in this front part of the brain was down 21 percent.
DR. DOUGLAS BREMMER, EMORY UNIVERSITY: This plays a critical role emotion because there is a decrease in function in that part of the brain and it makes sense that there'd be changes in mood.
GUPTA: Accutane and generic versions already carry an imposing warning. Aside from cautions about birth defects, there is this: "Accutane may cause depression, psychosis, suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and aggressive behavior."
But that warning only started in 2002, four years after the Food and Drug Administration warned physicians that the drug might have psychiatric side effects. There are several lawsuits pending, including one by the family of 15-year-old patient Charles Bishop, who killed himself flying a small plane into a Tampa officer tower two years ago.
Of course teens are more prone to clinical depression, and experts say the rate as measured by suicide and the number of teens seeking treatment is rising.
A spokeswoman for Roche, the company that makes Accutane told us she doesn't know enough to comment on the new study but says that Roche has never found a link between its drug and suicide.
Earlier this year, an FDA advisory panel recommended creating a formal registry of all patients on the drug to make it easier to keep track of side effects, but the agency has taken no action and the spokeswoman told CNN they are still deciding what to do.
Roche says its open to a registry, but that could take a long time.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: One other note on this story, Accutane is used by hundreds of thousands of people to fight severe acne.
Want to get a break here. In a moment, who are the kids picking to win this year's election? Ask the young ones. Jack has that in "The File" right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Teen pop star Ashlee Simpson had what I guess could be called a musical meltdown on "Saturday Night Live" over the weekend.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JUDE LAW, ACTOR: Once again, Ashlee Simpson.
(MUSIC)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: She had performed earlier. Her spokesman has said that she was not lip-synching.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, right.
O'BRIEN: So she did this little hoe-down thing. And went on in what could only be called an awkward moment. The band kept playing. Did a little more dancing. There you go. And...
HEMMER: Few more steps.
O'BRIEN: Few more steps.
HEMMER: Hang with it here just another second here -- you'll see here walk off the stage.
O'BRIEN: Stalk off. And -- and she apologized later but in the same breath blamed the band.
CAFFERTY: Well that figures as -- you know don't blame it on yourself the fact that she's unable to stand there and sing the song.
HEMMER: Listen to this.
O'BRIEN: Here's her apology. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ASHLEE SIMPSON, SINGER: I feel so bad, my band started playing the wrong song and I didn't know what to do so I thought I'd do a hoe- down.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: She didn't know what to do so she started to do a hoe- down.
HEMMER: See that was bad, but that apology was even worse. You had to think they were backstage conspiring how they were going to explain this one before they went off the air.
O'BRIEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) again.
CAFFERTY: I mean, there are two things. "Saturday Night Live" doesn't acknowledge that they're lip-synching the songs, which they probably should, and then it's the band's fault?
HEMMER: Hence the word "live" in the show...
CAFFERTY: Yes, live -- "Saturday Night Live." "Saturday Night on Tape," or "Saturday Night Lip-Synch." Or "Saturday Night Pretend." Loser.
HEMMER: She did a performance of that song a few months ago apparently and it just bombed. And that was the caution they took on "Saturday Night" but, wow. She's exposed now, aren't they?
CAFFERTY: I mean half these kids can't sing if they're not in studios where they can do overdubs and echoes and all kinds of those things. You put them out and say you know say go sing a capella and do the "Star Spangled Banner" it would cause the windows to crack and fall out of this building. I'm not a fan; I was never a fan. Who was it again? Ashlee what?
HEMMER: Ashlee Simpson.
CAFFERTY: Yes. Be hearing a lot of here. Bill, time for "The File." Bill Clinton is joining the John Kerry campaign this week just weeks after having quadruple bypass surgery. Says he's reformed his fast food ways and he's feeling great because of regular exercise and because he's replacing greasy foods with organic ones. Amazing how you can get religion after a quadruple bypass, ain't it? Gone are the days of the Big Macs and fries and in their place are organic meats, vegetables and granola. Other Clinton favorites include tuna cranberry salad, fish, apples, low-fat ice cream, which is some of the worst stuff in the world, egg whites, and turkey burgers.
The Dave Matthews Band still trying to resolve its sewage problem in Chicago. The band's tour bus driver allegedly emptied the bus' septic tank on a bridge over the Chicago River last August -- you remember that. A hundred passengers on a tour boat below were the unlucky recipients of the contents. The Illinois attorney general sued the band but so far they won't accept responsibility for the incident. The have suspended the bus driver and they have donated $50,000 each to the Chicago Park District and a non-profit group that protects the Chicago River.
No smirks from the Chicago Attorney General's Office -- says that's not enough. To be continued.
And finally when it comes to swing votes, maybe they ought to be paying attention to the swing sets. Remember the "Weekly Reader"? Well they've done a presidential poll of school children that has predicted the winner of elections ever since the Eisenhower administration in 1956. They've never been wrong. Most national polls show the candidates neck and neck but not this one. The kid's poll shows President Bush winning by a lot. Here's the "Weekly Reader" poll -- Bush getting 65 percent of the votes, Kerry 33 percent. Kids from first to 12th grade in all 50 states cast their votes via the Internet and by calling an 800 number and the poll has never been wrong. As I said since 1956. So it will be interesting to see. They say its President Bush all the way.
HEMMER: We shall see in eight days. Or maybe not.
CAFFERTY: Hmm?
HEMMER: We'll see in eight days.
CAFFERTY: Yes we will. Or maybe not. Yes, that's right.
HEMMER: Thank you Jack. In a moment here with hundreds of tons of explosives missing in Iraq, what's the danger to U.S. troops on the ground there? More live in a moment from the Pentagon on this story still developing at this hour back in a moment after this on a Monday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired October 25, 2004 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. Just about half-past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
Coming up this morning, the bitter fight for votes. Already both campaigns sending in the lawyers to key battleground states. We're going to take a look at which states are poised for the biggest fights, and also what kind of effect this could have on voter turnout.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: That's what we need, right? Just ask Jack.
Also, the fight over a drug used by thousands of people to fight severe acne. Some people want Accutane off the market because of a reported link to depression and to suicide. Now there appears to be new evidence to support that. Sanjay stops by in a moment to explain all of that to us this morning.
O'BRIEN: A look at our top stories now with Daryn Kagan. She's at the CNN Center. Good morning, Daryn.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Soledad, good morning to you. There is word -- new word this morning of another U.S. soldier who has been killed in Iraq. U.S. military sources saying an improvised explosive device blew up in western Baghdad.
Five other soldiers were injured in that attack.
U.S. officials are concerned about reports that almost four hundred tons of explosives are missing from a former Iraqi military facility. The U.N.'s nuclear monitoring agency says it is extremely concerned. Soledad spoke with Melissa Fleming of the International Atomic Energy Commission earlier this hour.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELISSA FLEMING, SPOKESWOMAN, IAEA: The most immediate concern given the security climate in Iraq is these explosives -- and this is a real massive quantity of explosives -- could have reached the hands of insurgents and could be used with deadly force and consequences against people in Iraq and elsewhere.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAGAN: The CIA task force has reportedly been ordered to investigate. A new round of Sudan peace talks kicks off this morning. Sudan government officials arriving in Nigeria expected to start negotiations with two rebel factions. The talks are aimed at ending what's being called one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Today comes amid reports of new fighting between rebels in the Darfur Region.
That is the news for now. Back to Soledad.
O'BRIEN: All right, Daryn thanks a lot. With just over a week until the presidential election, Democrat John Kerry is hoping for a big boost today. Former President Bill Clinton will make his first campaign appearance today since he had heart surgery just a few weeks ago.
National correspondent Kelly Wallace live in Philadelphia this morning with much more. Hey Kelly, good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning Soledad. A senior Kerry adviser telling us that no one fires up the Democratic base like Bill Clinton, and that it is all about turn out right now so the Kerry campaign has the former president here and then he will also travel to Florida and New Mexico.
Team Bush-Cheney, for its part, says it is not worried.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: (voice-over) The rock star of Democratic politics making his first campaign appearance since his quadruple bypass last month, and team Kerry-Edwards is thrilled, frequently mentioning the former president on the stump.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: As my friend, our friend, President Clinton likes to say...
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They like to talk bad about President Clinton, but let me say this: when he was president of the United States, we weren't losing jobs...
WALLACE: Their strategy, a reversal from Al Gore's decision four years ago not to embrace Bill Clinton. Political observers say that move might have cost Gore victory in key battleground states.
What can Bill Clinton do? He can fire up the Democratic base, especially African-Americans who Senator Kerry has been slow to energize.
According to a recent study, 18 percent of African-Americans say they would vote for President Bush this year. That's double the number who voted for him four years ago. However, other polls show Mr. Bush's support now the same 8 percent as in 2000.
Democratic Congressman Charles Rangel told "INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY" Mr. Bush's policies will actually send African-Americans out for John Kerry.
REP. CHARLES RANGEL (D), NEW YORK: George Bush is going to be the biggest incentive to get minority and middle class people out to vote.
WALLACE: But some Republicans say dispatching Mr. Clinton could be a sign of worry inside Camp Kerry.
REP. PETER KING (R), NEW YORK: That's why they have to bring Bill Clinton into Philadelphia, to bring out the African-American vote because they are so concerned that the African-Americans in large numbers are going to vote for George Bush.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: And some Republicans also say that Bill Clinton could turn off swing voters by reminding them of the scandals during the Clinton presidency, but Kerry's advisers are banking on the former president, reminding those swing voters of the good economic years during the Clinton administration -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, Kelly, how exactly is his health? I know he's recovered and doing better, but I mean -- you know -- the president -- the former president -- is all about hugging and kissing and shaking hands and can he do that just seven weeks after having a quadruple bypass?
WALLACE: Well, it's interesting, Soledad, we have seen the former president in another interview with ABC and he has said that his doctors are advising him to kind of take it slow. To not do events late into the evening, to kind of keep somewhat of a moderate schedule, and if you just sort of look at the former president in that interview he clearly does look as if he has been through what has been obviously a difficult thing. Heart bypass surgery.
So it will be interesting to see him here. We're expecting thousands of people. Not quite clear if he will have sort of the energy that we're so familiar with of Bill Clinton but he clearly is trying to do his part here in Philly and then Florida and New Mexico this week, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Kelly Wallace for us this morning. Kelly thanks.
The Bush campaign is working to nudge a handful of battleground states in its direction. President Bush in New Mexico yesterday talked to voters about the difference between his approach and John Kerry's approach to terrorism.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Your choice in this election could not be clearer. You cannot lead our nation to decisive victory on which the security of every American family depends if you do not see the true dangers of the post-September the 11th world.
My opponent has a September 10th point of view. At his convention he declared that his strategy will be to respond to attacks after America is hit. Those were his words. That would be too late.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Today President Bush will be in Colorado, which was considered a red state but might be back in play. He's going to visit Iowa today and tomorrow with a trip to Wisconsin in between.
HEMMER: Dick Polman is a political reporter for "The Philadelphia Inquirer." He's my guest now in Philadelphia taking the pulse of what's happening politically there. Good morning, welcome here to AMERICAN MORNING.
Let's talk about Bill Clinton first. The significance is what for people living in your state?
DICK POLMAN, "PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER": Well, Bill Clinton is extremely popular with the African-American community. They were his biggest supporters during the Lewinsky scandal. He is the number one Democrat, really, in their eyes. Certainly the number one white Democrat.
And I believe that by bringing him to Philadelphia, it's a signal that what the Democrats are really trying to do more than anything else in Pennsylvania is to galvanize the African-American turnout in the urban areas. In Philadelphia in particular they need a huge outpouring of African-Americans in Philadelphia so that they can get a major edge in the city on the vote that would carry them to victory statewide.
HEMMER: Are you suggesting then the polls are right and Senator Kerry is weak on that front with African-Americans?
POLMAN: Well I mean I -- he's -- I don't think he has a major, you know, warmth connection going with African-Americans but what I think a lot of people forget is that Al Gore we now remember that Al Gore got this huge outpouring from African-Americans in 2000 but that's only in retrospect, it happened in the last couple of days. The polls a week out from the 2000 election did not show what ultimately transpired so in some ways Kerry is in the same place.
Gore outperformed the polls on Election Day four years ago and Senator Kerry is perhaps in a position to do the same thing now.
HEMMER: That's the strategy on the Kerry side. What about the president's side? Where do you see the strategy, not just in Philly but throughout the state of Pennsylvania?
POLMAN: Well I think what he's trying to do here he's been trying to expand his base by signing up lots of new voters who may not be -- who would be perhaps sympathetic to his views. There's a lot of new Republican-leaning suburbanites in some of the new suburbs out in say Lancaster County, in the middle of the state. He's trying to sign them up.
He's also trying to appeal to people who maybe vote Democratic on economic ground but are socially conservative on things like faith, abortion, social issues. And he's I think trying to perhaps appeal to them on that level. HEMMER: Also you have in-person voting, which I guess is another way of saying you have early voting in the state of Pennsylvania. Can you give us a gauge of how that's going so far in your state? And also what's the reaction you're hearing about lawyers questioning the validity of those casting their ballots at this point?
POLMAN: Well I don't think the early voting is anywhere near like what Pennsylvania -- excuse me -- what Florida is experiencing in terms of it's a flood of people. The lawyer issue is really the more interesting one in some ways. Some of it is kind of a microcosm in terms of what's going on in a lot of other states nationwide with sort of this potential litigiousness seeping into the electoral system.
We've got -- the Democrats for example were training a lot of lawyers up in New York to come down here and be on site on election day to sort of monitor what's going on at the polls and perhaps to turn back what they see are attempts by the Republicans to stop people from voting to intimidate people from showing up in massive numbers, particularly in minority communities, so you know the legal community is sort of very much part of the process now and they're almost like on a hair trigger or alert.
HEMMER: All right, Dick thanks for your time. Interesting to see that early voting is not as popular in your state as it is in Florida but we'll measure that later to find out the significance. Thanks.
All right, Dick Polman there in Philly.
If talk of the Electoral College makes your eyes glaze just a bit, a recent Gallup Poll agrees suggesting most Americans in that survey want to get rid of it. Sixty-one percent to 35 percent. Eight days out, though, the presidential race is tight as ever, both camps focused on little else, the Electoral College vote.
Carlos Watson in Atlanta there at the CNN Center, good morning Carlos.
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
HEMMER: Want to look at this map right now. It had been there were what? Nineteen battleground states. Gone down to 14 battleground states. Now there are 11. Of those 11, what will change the game come next Tuesday?
WATSON: Well interestingly enough, Bill, conventional wisdom would say focus on Florida or at a minimum focus on Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. But if you take a closer look at both the Bush and the Kerry campaigns, you'll realize that they have strategies to win the Electoral College without Florida.
So if you're President Bush you can afford to lose Florida if for example you pick up some votes in the upper Midwest. By that I mean Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.
The combination there offers 28 electoral votes versus Florida's 27. Conversely if you're John Kerry, where again the conventional wisdom is that you need Florida, actually you could bypass Florida and instead pick up Ohio or maybe head out to the west and pick out some additional votes particularly in Colorado and Nevada. So there are a number of strategies that are a little bit counterintuitive and we shouldn't get locked into focusing on what we saw in 2000.
HEMMER: The president referred to that very thing in an interview over the weekend. Who's going where at this point Carlos?
WATSON: Who's going well you said?
HEMMER: Who's going where?
WATSON: They're going everywhere including Colorado today. In fact the southwest is an interesting place to look, Bill because you know when you talk about swing votes we've gotten locked into talking about security moms, but the reality is that different regions and in different key swing states there is a different swing block so in the Southwest the real swing block are Hispanics where they'll make up anywhere from 12 to 15 percent of the vote in states like Colorado and Nevada. And in a state like New Mexico they'll make up 30 percent of the vote. Now to the extent that President Bush is able to hold on to not just 35 percent but maybe as much as 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, he's likely to win those states.
To the extent that John Kerry can pick up two out of every three Hispanic votes, he's got a real edge in the Southwest.
HEMMER: You refer to in your first answer Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Look to other key states in the Midwest and also look to the Northeast and New Hampshire. What do you see breaking there and with Senator Kerry there in New Hampshire in a few moments too what are you sizing up today?
WATSON: Well, you know, what's interesting when you look at victory or when you look at Florida when you look at Pennsylvania or when you look at Ohio, again, there's a counterintuitive swing group there that could ultimately decide the election and that group in particular are African-Americans. Why do I say African-Americans? To the extent that they constitute ultimately some 15 percent of the vote in those states. The reality is that John Kerry assuming he does as well as Al Gore, and we just saw a new poll earlier, picks up 9 out of every 10 African-American votes, probably frankly has an edge. So you know while seniors are very important in Florida, while seniors are very important in Pennsylvania, the reality is that African-Americans ultimately may be a swing vote in that trio of states.
HEMMER: All right that's today. What's tomorrow Carlos?
WATSON: Well if we tune in tomorrow, we're going to talk about some of the most interesting campaign tactics that we see people using. We're -- we've focused on all of this money spent on television ads, but there's some really intriguing things that both the Bush and the Kerry campaign are doing as well as independent groups are trying to turn out the vote.
HEMMER: See you then, all right?
WATSON: See you then.
HEMMER: Thank you, Carlos. Carlos Watson at the CNN Center -- Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: In a moment here Wal-Mart protestors taking their case to the ancient Aztec temples in Mexico. I will explain that.
O'BRIEN: Also can a drug used to treat acne also lead to depression? Dr. Sanjay Gupta takes a look at that controversy up next. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
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HEMMER: There is a fight brewing over the drug Accutane. Accutane is used to treat severe acne and the controversy here is triggered by new research that reveals how the drug may lead to depression in some patients.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta has more this morning for us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
REP. BART STUPAK (D) MICHIGAN: My oldest son B.J. -- Bart, Jr. -- died in May 14th, 2000. He shot himself.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SR. MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Bart, Jr. was 17. Michigan Congressman Bart Stupak blames Accutane for his son's suicide, and he wants it off the market. But until now no one could say just how the drug might lead to depression.
STUPAK: This was the first study that really shows a biological link, physical evidence.
GUPTA: With this high-tech camera, psychiatrist Douglas Bremmer looked at the brains of 13 young adults taking Accutane for acne and another 15 on antibiotics.
In the so-called Accutane brain, activity in this front part of the brain was down 21 percent.
DR. DOUGLAS BREMMER, EMORY UNIVERSITY: This plays a critical role emotion because there is a decrease in function in that part of the brain and it makes sense that there'd be changes in mood.
GUPTA: Accutane and generic versions already carry an imposing warning. Aside from cautions about birth defects, there is this: "Accutane may cause depression, psychosis, suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and aggressive behavior."
But that warning only started in 2002, four years after the Food and Drug Administration warned physicians that the drug might have psychiatric side effects. There are several lawsuits pending, including one by the family of 15-year-old patient Charles Bishop, who killed himself flying a small plane into a Tampa officer tower two years ago.
Of course teens are more prone to clinical depression, and experts say the rate as measured by suicide and the number of teens seeking treatment is rising.
A spokeswoman for Roche, the company that makes Accutane told us she doesn't know enough to comment on the new study but says that Roche has never found a link between its drug and suicide.
Earlier this year, an FDA advisory panel recommended creating a formal registry of all patients on the drug to make it easier to keep track of side effects, but the agency has taken no action and the spokeswoman told CNN they are still deciding what to do.
Roche says its open to a registry, but that could take a long time.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: One other note on this story, Accutane is used by hundreds of thousands of people to fight severe acne.
Want to get a break here. In a moment, who are the kids picking to win this year's election? Ask the young ones. Jack has that in "The File" right after this.
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O'BRIEN: Teen pop star Ashlee Simpson had what I guess could be called a musical meltdown on "Saturday Night Live" over the weekend.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JUDE LAW, ACTOR: Once again, Ashlee Simpson.
(MUSIC)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: She had performed earlier. Her spokesman has said that she was not lip-synching.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, right.
O'BRIEN: So she did this little hoe-down thing. And went on in what could only be called an awkward moment. The band kept playing. Did a little more dancing. There you go. And...
HEMMER: Few more steps.
O'BRIEN: Few more steps.
HEMMER: Hang with it here just another second here -- you'll see here walk off the stage.
O'BRIEN: Stalk off. And -- and she apologized later but in the same breath blamed the band.
CAFFERTY: Well that figures as -- you know don't blame it on yourself the fact that she's unable to stand there and sing the song.
HEMMER: Listen to this.
O'BRIEN: Here's her apology. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ASHLEE SIMPSON, SINGER: I feel so bad, my band started playing the wrong song and I didn't know what to do so I thought I'd do a hoe- down.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: She didn't know what to do so she started to do a hoe- down.
HEMMER: See that was bad, but that apology was even worse. You had to think they were backstage conspiring how they were going to explain this one before they went off the air.
O'BRIEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) again.
CAFFERTY: I mean, there are two things. "Saturday Night Live" doesn't acknowledge that they're lip-synching the songs, which they probably should, and then it's the band's fault?
HEMMER: Hence the word "live" in the show...
CAFFERTY: Yes, live -- "Saturday Night Live." "Saturday Night on Tape," or "Saturday Night Lip-Synch." Or "Saturday Night Pretend." Loser.
HEMMER: She did a performance of that song a few months ago apparently and it just bombed. And that was the caution they took on "Saturday Night" but, wow. She's exposed now, aren't they?
CAFFERTY: I mean half these kids can't sing if they're not in studios where they can do overdubs and echoes and all kinds of those things. You put them out and say you know say go sing a capella and do the "Star Spangled Banner" it would cause the windows to crack and fall out of this building. I'm not a fan; I was never a fan. Who was it again? Ashlee what?
HEMMER: Ashlee Simpson.
CAFFERTY: Yes. Be hearing a lot of here. Bill, time for "The File." Bill Clinton is joining the John Kerry campaign this week just weeks after having quadruple bypass surgery. Says he's reformed his fast food ways and he's feeling great because of regular exercise and because he's replacing greasy foods with organic ones. Amazing how you can get religion after a quadruple bypass, ain't it? Gone are the days of the Big Macs and fries and in their place are organic meats, vegetables and granola. Other Clinton favorites include tuna cranberry salad, fish, apples, low-fat ice cream, which is some of the worst stuff in the world, egg whites, and turkey burgers.
The Dave Matthews Band still trying to resolve its sewage problem in Chicago. The band's tour bus driver allegedly emptied the bus' septic tank on a bridge over the Chicago River last August -- you remember that. A hundred passengers on a tour boat below were the unlucky recipients of the contents. The Illinois attorney general sued the band but so far they won't accept responsibility for the incident. The have suspended the bus driver and they have donated $50,000 each to the Chicago Park District and a non-profit group that protects the Chicago River.
No smirks from the Chicago Attorney General's Office -- says that's not enough. To be continued.
And finally when it comes to swing votes, maybe they ought to be paying attention to the swing sets. Remember the "Weekly Reader"? Well they've done a presidential poll of school children that has predicted the winner of elections ever since the Eisenhower administration in 1956. They've never been wrong. Most national polls show the candidates neck and neck but not this one. The kid's poll shows President Bush winning by a lot. Here's the "Weekly Reader" poll -- Bush getting 65 percent of the votes, Kerry 33 percent. Kids from first to 12th grade in all 50 states cast their votes via the Internet and by calling an 800 number and the poll has never been wrong. As I said since 1956. So it will be interesting to see. They say its President Bush all the way.
HEMMER: We shall see in eight days. Or maybe not.
CAFFERTY: Hmm?
HEMMER: We'll see in eight days.
CAFFERTY: Yes we will. Or maybe not. Yes, that's right.
HEMMER: Thank you Jack. In a moment here with hundreds of tons of explosives missing in Iraq, what's the danger to U.S. troops on the ground there? More live in a moment from the Pentagon on this story still developing at this hour back in a moment after this on a Monday morning.
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