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American Morning
Clinton and Giuliani Stump for the Presidential Candidates; NTSB to Issue Final Report on American Airlines Flight 587 Crash; Medical Implications of Rehnquist's Cancer Diagnosis
Aired October 26, 2004 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: 8:30 in New York. Good morning, everyone. Good to have you along with us today.
We're looking inside the candidates' political playbooks today, strategies for winning over the undecided voters -- if there still are those out there.
Carlos Watson says there are at least four ways to break through, and you may not be aware of them. In fact, there's a few new ones on the list this time around. So, we'll get to Carlos in a moment here.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Also this morning, Chief Justice William Rehnquist now diagnosed with thyroid cancer. Not much known, though, about the seriousness of his condition. This morning we get a medical update. Find out what, if anything, can be learned from Rehnquist's surgery.
HEMMER: Also here at the bottom of the hour want to get back to Heidi Collins looking at the news now at this hour starting in the Middle East I believe, right? Good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: That's right. In fact, new violence in the Middle East this morning.
The Israeli Army says Palestinian militants have launched three rockets into Israeli territory. No details yet on any damage.
The attack, though, comes as Israel's Parliament debates a controversial plan to pull out of Gaza. The vote is expected in just a couple hours from now.
In Virginia, a major development in the case against Lee Boyd Malvo. Malvo is expected to plead guilty today to the 2002 sniper- style killing of Kenneth Bridges. He will avoid the death penalty. Malvo is already serving a life sentence for another shooting.
He and suspected mastermind John Allen Mohammed still face charges in other states.
Well seven days until the election, and many New Jersey residents still don't know how they'll cast their vote. A judge today will consider whether electronic voting can be used in the election. Fifteen counties are scheduled to use touch screen machines similar to the ones you're looking at now, but critics challenged their use because there is no paper backup. And some tougher rules to get through the border. Starting today, travelers from visa waiver countries like Japan, Britain and France will have to carry machine-readable passports. The passports have coded data and can be swiped at check-ins. So, no swipe, no entry.
Sounds pretty simple: no shoes, no service either.
HEMMER: You process things faster, too, which would be nice.
COLLINS: Yes, that's true.
HEMMER: Thanks, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes.
O'BRIEN: With just a week to go before Americans go to voting booths to elect a leader, President Bush is leading in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, the president has a five-point lead over Senator John Kerry but just a two-point lead among registered voters.
Florida is the battleground state with the biggest prize, 27 electoral votes, and there the president has an eight-point lead among likely voters and a nine-point lead among registered voters.
But in a poll of other recent Florida surveys, the race is still a virtual tie, with the president at 48 percent and Kerry at 46 percent with a margin of error of five percent.
Former President Bill Clinton, just seven weeks after major heart surgery, energized the Democratic base yesterday to get out and vote for Kerry. Looking thinner, sounding a bit hoarse, Clinton warned not to be fooled by President Bush's scare tactics. He also thanked the thousands who turned out to see him for their well wishes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON (D), FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If this isn't good for my heart, I don't know what is. Thank you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: There was no rest for the weary. After Philadelphia, it's off to Miami.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: They criticized John Kerry in -- throughout this campaign -- for saying he changed his positions. Well, let me tell you something. I've lived a long time and I'm not running for anything. I can say what I please.
The only way -- let me tell you something. Only a very foolish person goes all the way through life and never changes position on anything and (INAUDIBLE).
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Clinton will continue campaigning in Florida today. Later in the week, he's going to visit Nevada and New Mexico and his home state of Arkansas, which Kerry officials now say is back in play.
Republicans answered back with their own star power. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his wife traveled with the president yesterday to campaign stops in Colorado and Iowa.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. NEW YORK MAYOR: We've had some very big successes in the war against terror -- we've made America safer, we've made the world safer. We've been able to see the growth of democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq. But that's only going to continue because we need a strong, determined man in the White House who can carry this forward. We need George Bush.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Many believe that Giuliani is considering a bid for the White House in 2008.
HEMMER: Get this price tag. The candidates spent $40 million on 40,000 plus TV ads this past week and now just seven days to go before the election, pulling out all the stops in the bitter fight for votes.
That's our segment. And back with us from L.A. today is Carlos Watson. Carlos good morning to you.
You say there are...
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
HEMMER: ...there are four ways you can kind of do the end run and still reach voters who are not decided yet.
Number one is celebrity surrogates. Do they really work, Carlos?
WATSON: They at least can peak your attention in these final days and maybe grab some ink in the local newspaper or on the local newscasts. So, not just Rudy Giuliani and President Clinton, but on the Democratic side someone like Bruce Springsteen or even Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg or on the Republican side you might see the president turn to family members.
Someone like Barbara Bush, his mother or even his nephew, George P. Bush who has been used significantly not only in Florida but remember yesterday we talked about the Hispanic vote in the Southwest: Colorado, Nevada, places like that. You're going to see George P. Bush there as well.
HEMMER: Number two: direct mail and direct e-mail. How do you do it where you know you're reaching the right person? And you're doing it in a way that's not annoying?
WATSON: We can't promise the last one, but in terms of reaching the right person, you think about all the databases that are out there now and not only do mass marketers who are selling soap and food now have access to these but political databases include this information. And so, what I receive in terms of the issues that my direct e-mail, my direct mail focus on may be very different than what my eight neighbors receive.
So, someone may get one about the Supreme Court. Another one may get one about guns. Another one about taxes. Another one about abortion. A lot more direct mail going out this time and it's very targeted and frankly it's more aggressive even in the television ads in the point that they try to make.
HEMMER: Well, number three and the third point that you're making today is even more direct than that. Knocking on doors, door- to-door, and making phone calls. How much of that is still happening now and does that increase in the final seven days?
WATSON: You know probably in comparison to four years ago and there are no exact numbers until we're done, Bill, but probably we'll see it -- two to three times as much door knocking and phone calling as we saw even four years ago.
Tens of thousands of volunteers have poured in to these final 11 to 14 states to knock on doors and to make these phone calls and often these phone calls that go into homes have the voices of famous people so Laura Bush, for example, has a phone call, an automated phone call, that's going into the homes of many Iowa voters as we speak.
HEMMER: Well you're...
WATSON: The president...
HEMMER: I'm sorry, I thought you were finished.
WATSON: So, anyhow, these are very important and again they are very sharp and they're very aggressive and they're very targeted. That's the point of these final tools, these marketing tools in the last few days.
HEMMER: Didn't mean to jump in there, Carlos, sorry about that. The last one here is kind of like what's been labeled the Tupperware party for the new millennium. DVD home parties. Are people actually doing this?
WATSON: They are. Remember Amway? You know, you saw Howard Dean do it during the Democratic primaries where whether it was through meet ups or whether it was through other means, you would see even without a candidate, even without an official of the campaign, you would see in homes all around Iowa you would see them gather supporters and they would often show a tape or show a DVD.
President Bush is doing this very effectively all throughout the country, but particularly in the Midwest and those states like Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin that are battleground states and again the hope is that when you spend time neighbor to neighbor talking to someone by at least one estimate voters are three to four times more likely to change their mind than through a TV ad.
HEMMER: We're almost there, aren't we?
WATSON: It's getting incredibly close and Bill I think it's only going to get more interesting.
HEMMER: We think we're almost there. We'll see where we are November 3rd.
Thank you, Carlos. Carlos Watson in L.A. this morning.
WATSON: It's good to see you.
O'BRIEN: It's been nearly three years since American Airlines Flight 587 bound for the Dominican Republic crashed into a New York City neighborhood just after takeoff from JFK Airport.
Well, today the NTSB is expected to release its final report on what caused that crash. Here's CNN's Kathleen Koch.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Terrorism, the first reaction when Americans shell shocked from the 9/11 attacks saw smoke rising from Queens, New York.
But within 45 minutes a government advisory went out.
MARION BLAKEY, FMR. NTSB CHAIRWOMAN: There is no indication of a terrorist attack. All information we have currently is that this is an accident.
STAN MOLIN, PILOT'S FATHER: The worst day of my life.
KOCH: Stan Molin's son Stan was a the controls of Flight 587 that day. Molin an airline pilot himself had taught his son to fly.
MOLIN: I used to tell people that he was a better pilot than I was and I am very good.
KOCH: But after engine failure and a flaw in the composite tail fin were ruled out, pilot error became the focus. In an effort to overcome wake turbulence, Molin had moved the rudder rapidly back and forth, snapping the tail off.
As the investigation proceeded, so did a war of words. American Airlines insisting Airbus, the manufacturer, had concealed previous incidents with the plane that showed its rudder was so sensitive that pilots using it the way Molin did at normal maneuvering speeds could damage the tail fin.
Airbus maintains it warned American Airlines in 1997 that its training program caused pilots to use rudders too aggressively, risking structural failure.
MOLIN: That airplane was -- was very vulnerable to this.
KOCH: Some eyewitnesses still believe there was an explosion on the plane.
JAMES CORNER, RETIRED NYPD OFFICER: I saw a light puff of smoke come from the fuselage area and then two seconds later, approximately, a explosion.
TOM LYNCH, RETIRED FIREFIGHTER: I know it was a fire on this aircraft before the vertical (INAUDIBLE) were separated. I'll go to my grave with that statement.
KOCH: In fact, CNN has learned a high-level captured al Qaeda operative told authorities this man, a shoe bomber, was on board Flight 587.
But experts say a bomb would have left unmistakable evidence.
PETER GOELZ, FMR. NTSB MANAGING DIRECTOR: One of the things you would hear on the voice recorder, you would hear the bomb going off.
KOCH: For now, three-quarters of the families of the 265 killed have settled out of court. Houses are being rebuilt on the crash site, a memorial plaque laid. Time, say some, to move on.
Kathleen Koch, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
O'BRIEN: Five people on the ground were also killed that day -- Bill.
HEMMER: About 20 minutes before the hour. Looking across the Midwest now, St. Louis, the arch, looking pretty good today. A little bit of clouds overhead. We mention this because later tonight game three of the World Series.
Boston goes to St. Louis; they lead the series two-zip and we're wondering about the weather.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: Last night on "The Daily Show," Jon Stewart had a bit of fun with ABC's Charlie Gibson and an interview he did over the weekend with President Bush. Have a look in on this here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JON STEWART, HOST, "THE DAILY SHOW": President Bush sat down with Charlie Gibson, who asked him to look ahead to next week's election.
CHARLIE GIBSON, ABC NEWS: (INAUDIBLE) election?
GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, I'm probably the wrong person to speak to.
STEWART: I see. Well, is there somebody higher up in the administration? The candidate, maybe?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Jon Stewart from last night.
O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, President Bush isn't welcome in Cuba. Well now neither are Presidents Washington or Lincoln or Jackson. We're talking money and Andy's "Minding Your Business" just ahead.
HEMMER: Also, Chief Rehnquist says he will be back at work next week but it remains to be seen just how serious his illness has become. We'll get some answers in a moment when AMERICAN MORNING continues right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Sanjay has got the week off. Elizabeth Cohen is at the CNN Center this morning with more. She's going to take a look at the medical implication of U.S. Chief Justice William Rehnquist's cancer diagnosis.
Hey, Elizabeth, good morning.
ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Soledad, the Supreme Court has revealed little about the Chief Justice's diagnosis. They have not said what type of thyroid cancer he has because some are worse than others. They haven't revealed if it has spread to any other part of his body.
They did, however, say one thing, which is quite revealing and has many people concerned. They indicated in their press release that the Chief Justice has a tracheotomy. Now this is very unusual. Tracheotomies are usually not performed as part of thyroid cancer treatments. Tracheotomy means that he was having trouble breathing and they needed to insert a tube in order to allow him to breath.
Now there are a couple of reasons why a tracheotomy might be performed on someone who has thyroid cancer -- there you see the trachea in the back and the thyroid gland in the front.
For example -- tracheotomy might be performed on a thyroid cancer patient, for example, if the cancer had spread from the thyroid to the trachea. A tracheotomy might also be performed if there was some other reason that the cancer impeded his ability to breathe. But we spoke with several oncologists, all of whom agreed that this is not a good sign.
There you see again the reasons why a thyroid cancer patient might have a tracheotomy. Oncologists say that this is not a good sign that he had to have that. Now, thyroid cancer in general is very easily treated. Usually the patient just has their thyroid removed. However, the fact that this tracheotomy was performed does give an indication that perhaps this is a more complicated case -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: He is 80-years-old; he's had, as you say, this tracheotomy. What other kinds of treatment then if it is an indication that its more serious than some of the press releases have been given out -- what other kind of treatment might he need now then?
COHEN: Well, in addition to the surgery, which thyroid cancer patients generally have to remove all or part of the thyroid, sometimes patients have to move on and have radioactive iodine treatment. That sounds scary when you hear the word radioactive, but actually it's a very safe procedure.
O'BRIEN: He's obviously not the only Justice that's been treated for cancer. There are several others. What other Justices have had to deal with this while they sat on the bench?
COHEN: Right. There are three other sitting Justices who are cancer survivors. Justice Stevens had prostate cancer. Justice Ginsberg colon cancer. Justice O'Connor is a breast cancer survivor.
O'BRIEN: Many people though of course looking to a political implications of this news. Elizabeth Cohen for us this morning. Thanks, Elizabeth, appreciate it.
We should also mention that if our viewers want to improve their overall health they might want to join Dr. Sanjay Gupta and us in this year's "New You Revolution."
This year's "New You Revolution" is going to focus on breaking bad health habits. If you want to be part of CNN's New You Revolution go to cnn.com/am. We're looking for men and women and families and singles. In other words, pretty much anybody who is willing to step up to our challenge.
And you can watch AMERICAN MORNING during November to see who is going to be selected for the eight week get fit journey with Sanjay. The series airs every Tuesday beginning in January.
Still to come this morning, a pop quiz. What is the safest big city in America? "The Cafferty File" is up next. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, welcome back.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Castro says no to the U.S. dollar and the Avon Lady is calling on some new customers. I can hardly wait. Andy Serwer is here "Minding Your Business." Morning.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: It's a good one. Let's talk about the markets.
First of all, a little bit of a down day yesterday. Dow was down about seven and Nasdaq down one and the S&P down about one, too.
This morning, though, futures looking pretty good. The price of oil is going down and so we'll be tracking that for you in the next hour.
Let's talk about Castro. Cuban president Fidel Castro is banning the use of U.S. dollars in his island nation. Dollars have been accepted in Cuba since 1993. That after the fall of the Soviet Union. The nation had to do something to help out its economy. Castro doing this in retaliation to the Bush administration, which has been clamping down on the influx of U.S. dollars lately.
This is going to hurt a lot of Cubans who have relatives in the United States who count on them sending dollars back to help them out. People suggesting that the timing of this by Fidel Castro is because he supports John Kerry. Well, I don't think that endorsement is going to help too much, Fidel, if that's really what you had in mind, you know? Fidel Castro supports John Kerry. I'm not sure that helps.
CAFFERTY: Isn't he going to die pretty soon? He's -- how old is he?
SERWER: Seventy-eight.
O'BRIEN: That header (ph) down the stairway. And you see pictures of him today with a sling and he's still going strong.
CAFFERTY: You thought that would have taken him out, but he's a tough old buzzard, isn't he?
SERWER: John Kennedy's contemporary. I mean, it's amazing isn't it?
OK, let's talk about this Avon story. A hundred and eighteen years Avon has been serving women customers. Now it's decided to start serving men customers.
CAFFERTY: Swell.
SERWER: Rolling out a new catalog for men. And who's on the cover? Chad Pennington. Shouldn't it be Tom Brady? OK, but I digress.
OK, there's Chad Pennington on the cover. They're saying that they're going to be appealing to different kinds of men. One group that they're appealing to is metrosexuals. Does anyone really want to be identified as a metrosexual?
They call this catalog M, the Men's Catalog. I have a better name for this catalog: The Catalog For Men By Avon. How about Ding- Dong?
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: Just...
SERWER: You know, ding-dong, the Avon lady...
O'BRIEN: You're poking fun.
SERWER: You just don't want to go there. OK. I thought it was funny. Tough crowd.
HEMMER: Wow.
CAFFERTY: Do not do that Avon calling thing at the Cafferty domicile in New Jersey. It will not be given a hospitable reception.
SERWER: No ding-dong.
CAFFERTY: "Cafferty File" -- 83-year-old Red Sox fan Fred Hale Jr. doesn't know what it's like to see his team to win the World Series. For that, he has to ask his dad, Fred Sr.
Fred Hale Sr. is 113-years-old.
SERWER: Wow.
CAFFERTY: The world's oldest man. He was 27 back in 1918 when Babe Ruth pitched the Red Sox to their last World Series victory. Fred says Babe was a pretty good pitcher. Now he only watches the first few innings of the game and then he has to go to bed.
Dallas Judge Faith Williams (sic) welcomed a fugitive back to her courtroom by throwing him a party complete with balloons and cake before sending him to prison for life. What do the judges think about? Billy Williams, on the run for a year before being captured by a fugitive task force, accused of choking his girlfriend until she was unconscious -- the kind of guy you want to throw a party for -- he got life for aggravated assault because of a lengthy criminal record that included murder.
And an escape from prison in 1985 and the judge -- what was her name? Faith Williams (sic). Threw him a party. As he was being led away in handcuffs, Billy Williams told a Dallas-Ft. Worth TV station it seems like everyone wants to have a party and it's fun for you people but not for me.
SERWER: Yes.
CAFFERTY: Faith Williams (sic). Probably got some lifetime employment for that. New York City is the safest big city in the country according to FBI statistics...
O'BRIEN: All right.
CAFFERTY: Did you want a table down front?
HEMMER: I got my table. I've got my seat.
SERWER: You're not going to the Red Sox game...
CAFFERTY: Dallas, Texas is the most dangerous -- Dallas residents over three times more likely to be a crime victim than somebody here in New York. New York did see an increase in the number of murders, but so did the rest of the country.
New York still didn't even make the top 100 metro areas in terms of murder rate. Violent crimes nationally down three percent according to the Bureau. Here's a look at the most dangerous and least dangerous cities.
Dallas -- this is crimes per 100,000 residents -- 9,300 in Dallas, San Antonio 7,400. Texas got a couple here in the top 10.
Philadelphia, Los Angeles, New York coming in there at 2,916.
I apologize -- the "File" would have been better this morning but I have a little acid reflux.
(LAUGHTER)
O'BRIEN: You're just a human being, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Human being.
HEMMER: You're microphone is working, though.
CAFFERTY: It is?
HEMMER: A-OK, yes.
O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, with just a week before the election, the Democrats bring out a blast from the past but the GOP doesn't seem to be shaking in its boots just yet. The spin from both sides as AMERICAN MORNING continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired October 26, 2004 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: 8:30 in New York. Good morning, everyone. Good to have you along with us today.
We're looking inside the candidates' political playbooks today, strategies for winning over the undecided voters -- if there still are those out there.
Carlos Watson says there are at least four ways to break through, and you may not be aware of them. In fact, there's a few new ones on the list this time around. So, we'll get to Carlos in a moment here.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Also this morning, Chief Justice William Rehnquist now diagnosed with thyroid cancer. Not much known, though, about the seriousness of his condition. This morning we get a medical update. Find out what, if anything, can be learned from Rehnquist's surgery.
HEMMER: Also here at the bottom of the hour want to get back to Heidi Collins looking at the news now at this hour starting in the Middle East I believe, right? Good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: That's right. In fact, new violence in the Middle East this morning.
The Israeli Army says Palestinian militants have launched three rockets into Israeli territory. No details yet on any damage.
The attack, though, comes as Israel's Parliament debates a controversial plan to pull out of Gaza. The vote is expected in just a couple hours from now.
In Virginia, a major development in the case against Lee Boyd Malvo. Malvo is expected to plead guilty today to the 2002 sniper- style killing of Kenneth Bridges. He will avoid the death penalty. Malvo is already serving a life sentence for another shooting.
He and suspected mastermind John Allen Mohammed still face charges in other states.
Well seven days until the election, and many New Jersey residents still don't know how they'll cast their vote. A judge today will consider whether electronic voting can be used in the election. Fifteen counties are scheduled to use touch screen machines similar to the ones you're looking at now, but critics challenged their use because there is no paper backup. And some tougher rules to get through the border. Starting today, travelers from visa waiver countries like Japan, Britain and France will have to carry machine-readable passports. The passports have coded data and can be swiped at check-ins. So, no swipe, no entry.
Sounds pretty simple: no shoes, no service either.
HEMMER: You process things faster, too, which would be nice.
COLLINS: Yes, that's true.
HEMMER: Thanks, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes.
O'BRIEN: With just a week to go before Americans go to voting booths to elect a leader, President Bush is leading in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, the president has a five-point lead over Senator John Kerry but just a two-point lead among registered voters.
Florida is the battleground state with the biggest prize, 27 electoral votes, and there the president has an eight-point lead among likely voters and a nine-point lead among registered voters.
But in a poll of other recent Florida surveys, the race is still a virtual tie, with the president at 48 percent and Kerry at 46 percent with a margin of error of five percent.
Former President Bill Clinton, just seven weeks after major heart surgery, energized the Democratic base yesterday to get out and vote for Kerry. Looking thinner, sounding a bit hoarse, Clinton warned not to be fooled by President Bush's scare tactics. He also thanked the thousands who turned out to see him for their well wishes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON (D), FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If this isn't good for my heart, I don't know what is. Thank you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: There was no rest for the weary. After Philadelphia, it's off to Miami.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: They criticized John Kerry in -- throughout this campaign -- for saying he changed his positions. Well, let me tell you something. I've lived a long time and I'm not running for anything. I can say what I please.
The only way -- let me tell you something. Only a very foolish person goes all the way through life and never changes position on anything and (INAUDIBLE).
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Clinton will continue campaigning in Florida today. Later in the week, he's going to visit Nevada and New Mexico and his home state of Arkansas, which Kerry officials now say is back in play.
Republicans answered back with their own star power. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his wife traveled with the president yesterday to campaign stops in Colorado and Iowa.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. NEW YORK MAYOR: We've had some very big successes in the war against terror -- we've made America safer, we've made the world safer. We've been able to see the growth of democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq. But that's only going to continue because we need a strong, determined man in the White House who can carry this forward. We need George Bush.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Many believe that Giuliani is considering a bid for the White House in 2008.
HEMMER: Get this price tag. The candidates spent $40 million on 40,000 plus TV ads this past week and now just seven days to go before the election, pulling out all the stops in the bitter fight for votes.
That's our segment. And back with us from L.A. today is Carlos Watson. Carlos good morning to you.
You say there are...
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
HEMMER: ...there are four ways you can kind of do the end run and still reach voters who are not decided yet.
Number one is celebrity surrogates. Do they really work, Carlos?
WATSON: They at least can peak your attention in these final days and maybe grab some ink in the local newspaper or on the local newscasts. So, not just Rudy Giuliani and President Clinton, but on the Democratic side someone like Bruce Springsteen or even Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg or on the Republican side you might see the president turn to family members.
Someone like Barbara Bush, his mother or even his nephew, George P. Bush who has been used significantly not only in Florida but remember yesterday we talked about the Hispanic vote in the Southwest: Colorado, Nevada, places like that. You're going to see George P. Bush there as well.
HEMMER: Number two: direct mail and direct e-mail. How do you do it where you know you're reaching the right person? And you're doing it in a way that's not annoying?
WATSON: We can't promise the last one, but in terms of reaching the right person, you think about all the databases that are out there now and not only do mass marketers who are selling soap and food now have access to these but political databases include this information. And so, what I receive in terms of the issues that my direct e-mail, my direct mail focus on may be very different than what my eight neighbors receive.
So, someone may get one about the Supreme Court. Another one may get one about guns. Another one about taxes. Another one about abortion. A lot more direct mail going out this time and it's very targeted and frankly it's more aggressive even in the television ads in the point that they try to make.
HEMMER: Well, number three and the third point that you're making today is even more direct than that. Knocking on doors, door- to-door, and making phone calls. How much of that is still happening now and does that increase in the final seven days?
WATSON: You know probably in comparison to four years ago and there are no exact numbers until we're done, Bill, but probably we'll see it -- two to three times as much door knocking and phone calling as we saw even four years ago.
Tens of thousands of volunteers have poured in to these final 11 to 14 states to knock on doors and to make these phone calls and often these phone calls that go into homes have the voices of famous people so Laura Bush, for example, has a phone call, an automated phone call, that's going into the homes of many Iowa voters as we speak.
HEMMER: Well you're...
WATSON: The president...
HEMMER: I'm sorry, I thought you were finished.
WATSON: So, anyhow, these are very important and again they are very sharp and they're very aggressive and they're very targeted. That's the point of these final tools, these marketing tools in the last few days.
HEMMER: Didn't mean to jump in there, Carlos, sorry about that. The last one here is kind of like what's been labeled the Tupperware party for the new millennium. DVD home parties. Are people actually doing this?
WATSON: They are. Remember Amway? You know, you saw Howard Dean do it during the Democratic primaries where whether it was through meet ups or whether it was through other means, you would see even without a candidate, even without an official of the campaign, you would see in homes all around Iowa you would see them gather supporters and they would often show a tape or show a DVD.
President Bush is doing this very effectively all throughout the country, but particularly in the Midwest and those states like Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin that are battleground states and again the hope is that when you spend time neighbor to neighbor talking to someone by at least one estimate voters are three to four times more likely to change their mind than through a TV ad.
HEMMER: We're almost there, aren't we?
WATSON: It's getting incredibly close and Bill I think it's only going to get more interesting.
HEMMER: We think we're almost there. We'll see where we are November 3rd.
Thank you, Carlos. Carlos Watson in L.A. this morning.
WATSON: It's good to see you.
O'BRIEN: It's been nearly three years since American Airlines Flight 587 bound for the Dominican Republic crashed into a New York City neighborhood just after takeoff from JFK Airport.
Well, today the NTSB is expected to release its final report on what caused that crash. Here's CNN's Kathleen Koch.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Terrorism, the first reaction when Americans shell shocked from the 9/11 attacks saw smoke rising from Queens, New York.
But within 45 minutes a government advisory went out.
MARION BLAKEY, FMR. NTSB CHAIRWOMAN: There is no indication of a terrorist attack. All information we have currently is that this is an accident.
STAN MOLIN, PILOT'S FATHER: The worst day of my life.
KOCH: Stan Molin's son Stan was a the controls of Flight 587 that day. Molin an airline pilot himself had taught his son to fly.
MOLIN: I used to tell people that he was a better pilot than I was and I am very good.
KOCH: But after engine failure and a flaw in the composite tail fin were ruled out, pilot error became the focus. In an effort to overcome wake turbulence, Molin had moved the rudder rapidly back and forth, snapping the tail off.
As the investigation proceeded, so did a war of words. American Airlines insisting Airbus, the manufacturer, had concealed previous incidents with the plane that showed its rudder was so sensitive that pilots using it the way Molin did at normal maneuvering speeds could damage the tail fin.
Airbus maintains it warned American Airlines in 1997 that its training program caused pilots to use rudders too aggressively, risking structural failure.
MOLIN: That airplane was -- was very vulnerable to this.
KOCH: Some eyewitnesses still believe there was an explosion on the plane.
JAMES CORNER, RETIRED NYPD OFFICER: I saw a light puff of smoke come from the fuselage area and then two seconds later, approximately, a explosion.
TOM LYNCH, RETIRED FIREFIGHTER: I know it was a fire on this aircraft before the vertical (INAUDIBLE) were separated. I'll go to my grave with that statement.
KOCH: In fact, CNN has learned a high-level captured al Qaeda operative told authorities this man, a shoe bomber, was on board Flight 587.
But experts say a bomb would have left unmistakable evidence.
PETER GOELZ, FMR. NTSB MANAGING DIRECTOR: One of the things you would hear on the voice recorder, you would hear the bomb going off.
KOCH: For now, three-quarters of the families of the 265 killed have settled out of court. Houses are being rebuilt on the crash site, a memorial plaque laid. Time, say some, to move on.
Kathleen Koch, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
O'BRIEN: Five people on the ground were also killed that day -- Bill.
HEMMER: About 20 minutes before the hour. Looking across the Midwest now, St. Louis, the arch, looking pretty good today. A little bit of clouds overhead. We mention this because later tonight game three of the World Series.
Boston goes to St. Louis; they lead the series two-zip and we're wondering about the weather.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: Last night on "The Daily Show," Jon Stewart had a bit of fun with ABC's Charlie Gibson and an interview he did over the weekend with President Bush. Have a look in on this here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JON STEWART, HOST, "THE DAILY SHOW": President Bush sat down with Charlie Gibson, who asked him to look ahead to next week's election.
CHARLIE GIBSON, ABC NEWS: (INAUDIBLE) election?
GEORGE W. BUSH (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, I'm probably the wrong person to speak to.
STEWART: I see. Well, is there somebody higher up in the administration? The candidate, maybe?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Jon Stewart from last night.
O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, President Bush isn't welcome in Cuba. Well now neither are Presidents Washington or Lincoln or Jackson. We're talking money and Andy's "Minding Your Business" just ahead.
HEMMER: Also, Chief Rehnquist says he will be back at work next week but it remains to be seen just how serious his illness has become. We'll get some answers in a moment when AMERICAN MORNING continues right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Sanjay has got the week off. Elizabeth Cohen is at the CNN Center this morning with more. She's going to take a look at the medical implication of U.S. Chief Justice William Rehnquist's cancer diagnosis.
Hey, Elizabeth, good morning.
ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Soledad, the Supreme Court has revealed little about the Chief Justice's diagnosis. They have not said what type of thyroid cancer he has because some are worse than others. They haven't revealed if it has spread to any other part of his body.
They did, however, say one thing, which is quite revealing and has many people concerned. They indicated in their press release that the Chief Justice has a tracheotomy. Now this is very unusual. Tracheotomies are usually not performed as part of thyroid cancer treatments. Tracheotomy means that he was having trouble breathing and they needed to insert a tube in order to allow him to breath.
Now there are a couple of reasons why a tracheotomy might be performed on someone who has thyroid cancer -- there you see the trachea in the back and the thyroid gland in the front.
For example -- tracheotomy might be performed on a thyroid cancer patient, for example, if the cancer had spread from the thyroid to the trachea. A tracheotomy might also be performed if there was some other reason that the cancer impeded his ability to breathe. But we spoke with several oncologists, all of whom agreed that this is not a good sign.
There you see again the reasons why a thyroid cancer patient might have a tracheotomy. Oncologists say that this is not a good sign that he had to have that. Now, thyroid cancer in general is very easily treated. Usually the patient just has their thyroid removed. However, the fact that this tracheotomy was performed does give an indication that perhaps this is a more complicated case -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: He is 80-years-old; he's had, as you say, this tracheotomy. What other kinds of treatment then if it is an indication that its more serious than some of the press releases have been given out -- what other kind of treatment might he need now then?
COHEN: Well, in addition to the surgery, which thyroid cancer patients generally have to remove all or part of the thyroid, sometimes patients have to move on and have radioactive iodine treatment. That sounds scary when you hear the word radioactive, but actually it's a very safe procedure.
O'BRIEN: He's obviously not the only Justice that's been treated for cancer. There are several others. What other Justices have had to deal with this while they sat on the bench?
COHEN: Right. There are three other sitting Justices who are cancer survivors. Justice Stevens had prostate cancer. Justice Ginsberg colon cancer. Justice O'Connor is a breast cancer survivor.
O'BRIEN: Many people though of course looking to a political implications of this news. Elizabeth Cohen for us this morning. Thanks, Elizabeth, appreciate it.
We should also mention that if our viewers want to improve their overall health they might want to join Dr. Sanjay Gupta and us in this year's "New You Revolution."
This year's "New You Revolution" is going to focus on breaking bad health habits. If you want to be part of CNN's New You Revolution go to cnn.com/am. We're looking for men and women and families and singles. In other words, pretty much anybody who is willing to step up to our challenge.
And you can watch AMERICAN MORNING during November to see who is going to be selected for the eight week get fit journey with Sanjay. The series airs every Tuesday beginning in January.
Still to come this morning, a pop quiz. What is the safest big city in America? "The Cafferty File" is up next. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, welcome back.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Castro says no to the U.S. dollar and the Avon Lady is calling on some new customers. I can hardly wait. Andy Serwer is here "Minding Your Business." Morning.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: It's a good one. Let's talk about the markets.
First of all, a little bit of a down day yesterday. Dow was down about seven and Nasdaq down one and the S&P down about one, too.
This morning, though, futures looking pretty good. The price of oil is going down and so we'll be tracking that for you in the next hour.
Let's talk about Castro. Cuban president Fidel Castro is banning the use of U.S. dollars in his island nation. Dollars have been accepted in Cuba since 1993. That after the fall of the Soviet Union. The nation had to do something to help out its economy. Castro doing this in retaliation to the Bush administration, which has been clamping down on the influx of U.S. dollars lately.
This is going to hurt a lot of Cubans who have relatives in the United States who count on them sending dollars back to help them out. People suggesting that the timing of this by Fidel Castro is because he supports John Kerry. Well, I don't think that endorsement is going to help too much, Fidel, if that's really what you had in mind, you know? Fidel Castro supports John Kerry. I'm not sure that helps.
CAFFERTY: Isn't he going to die pretty soon? He's -- how old is he?
SERWER: Seventy-eight.
O'BRIEN: That header (ph) down the stairway. And you see pictures of him today with a sling and he's still going strong.
CAFFERTY: You thought that would have taken him out, but he's a tough old buzzard, isn't he?
SERWER: John Kennedy's contemporary. I mean, it's amazing isn't it?
OK, let's talk about this Avon story. A hundred and eighteen years Avon has been serving women customers. Now it's decided to start serving men customers.
CAFFERTY: Swell.
SERWER: Rolling out a new catalog for men. And who's on the cover? Chad Pennington. Shouldn't it be Tom Brady? OK, but I digress.
OK, there's Chad Pennington on the cover. They're saying that they're going to be appealing to different kinds of men. One group that they're appealing to is metrosexuals. Does anyone really want to be identified as a metrosexual?
They call this catalog M, the Men's Catalog. I have a better name for this catalog: The Catalog For Men By Avon. How about Ding- Dong?
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: Just...
SERWER: You know, ding-dong, the Avon lady...
O'BRIEN: You're poking fun.
SERWER: You just don't want to go there. OK. I thought it was funny. Tough crowd.
HEMMER: Wow.
CAFFERTY: Do not do that Avon calling thing at the Cafferty domicile in New Jersey. It will not be given a hospitable reception.
SERWER: No ding-dong.
CAFFERTY: "Cafferty File" -- 83-year-old Red Sox fan Fred Hale Jr. doesn't know what it's like to see his team to win the World Series. For that, he has to ask his dad, Fred Sr.
Fred Hale Sr. is 113-years-old.
SERWER: Wow.
CAFFERTY: The world's oldest man. He was 27 back in 1918 when Babe Ruth pitched the Red Sox to their last World Series victory. Fred says Babe was a pretty good pitcher. Now he only watches the first few innings of the game and then he has to go to bed.
Dallas Judge Faith Williams (sic) welcomed a fugitive back to her courtroom by throwing him a party complete with balloons and cake before sending him to prison for life. What do the judges think about? Billy Williams, on the run for a year before being captured by a fugitive task force, accused of choking his girlfriend until she was unconscious -- the kind of guy you want to throw a party for -- he got life for aggravated assault because of a lengthy criminal record that included murder.
And an escape from prison in 1985 and the judge -- what was her name? Faith Williams (sic). Threw him a party. As he was being led away in handcuffs, Billy Williams told a Dallas-Ft. Worth TV station it seems like everyone wants to have a party and it's fun for you people but not for me.
SERWER: Yes.
CAFFERTY: Faith Williams (sic). Probably got some lifetime employment for that. New York City is the safest big city in the country according to FBI statistics...
O'BRIEN: All right.
CAFFERTY: Did you want a table down front?
HEMMER: I got my table. I've got my seat.
SERWER: You're not going to the Red Sox game...
CAFFERTY: Dallas, Texas is the most dangerous -- Dallas residents over three times more likely to be a crime victim than somebody here in New York. New York did see an increase in the number of murders, but so did the rest of the country.
New York still didn't even make the top 100 metro areas in terms of murder rate. Violent crimes nationally down three percent according to the Bureau. Here's a look at the most dangerous and least dangerous cities.
Dallas -- this is crimes per 100,000 residents -- 9,300 in Dallas, San Antonio 7,400. Texas got a couple here in the top 10.
Philadelphia, Los Angeles, New York coming in there at 2,916.
I apologize -- the "File" would have been better this morning but I have a little acid reflux.
(LAUGHTER)
O'BRIEN: You're just a human being, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Human being.
HEMMER: You're microphone is working, though.
CAFFERTY: It is?
HEMMER: A-OK, yes.
O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, with just a week before the election, the Democrats bring out a blast from the past but the GOP doesn't seem to be shaking in its boots just yet. The spin from both sides as AMERICAN MORNING continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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