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CNN Live At Daybreak
New Voters?; 'Hot Topics'; Troubled Skies for Airline Industry
Aired October 28, 2004 - 06:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello.
"Now in the News."
How sick is Yasser Arafat? Palestinian cabinet, Mr. Hanan Ashrawi, told me an hour ago Arafat was able to get out of bed for morning prayers. It comes one day after he was described as too weak to walk and unable to keep food down.
U.S. warplanes have struck again in Fallujah. The military says it launched a precision strike on a building, where insurgents loyal to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi were meeting.
Waterspouts off of Malibu. Take a look at this. The second big storm this month brought rain, snow, floods and mudslides to California. I-215 was shut down. Seventeen thousand homes lost power. Water was four feet deep at one intersection in Sun City.
Fans in Boston celebrate the first Red Sox championship in 86 years, a four-game World Series sweep over the St. Louis Cardinals. More with Chris Cotter and a special Red Sox fan just about 20 minutes from now.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COSTELLO: Five days and counting until we vote for president, state and local candidates; five days, unless you took advantage of early voting that is.
It may have been a great idea, and maybe it's still a good idea, but some states did offer that early voting. But in many of these places, depending on the time of day, it could be a two-hour wait or longer to cast your ballot. And speaking of those thousands upon thousands of newly-registered voters, the question remains: Will they actually vote on November 2?
CNN's Ed Henry has more on that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Record numbers of new voters are being added to the rolls across the nation, sparked by intense interest in the presidential battle.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Is everyone registered to vote here? HENRY: Allies of President Bush and John Kerry have each spent millions to register newcomers. Democrats scored in key battlegrounds.
STEVE ROSENTHAL, AMERICA COMING TOGETHER: If everybody who has registered comes out and votes, that should be a huge boon for John Kerry.
HENRY: That a big if. In an election full of unknowns, this may be the biggest wildcard of all. Will many of these new voters vote next Tuesday? Yes, says independent expert Curtis Gans. He's predicting a sharp hike in all turnout, including first-timers.
CURTIS GANS, STUDY OF AMERICAN ELECTORATE: This is the most emotional election we have had since at least 1968. The passions of pro-Bush and anti-Bush people are very high, and that's what will drive them to the polls.
HENRY: Each party claims to have signed up about three million new voters, and both sides are vowing to get them to show up.
ROBERT TRAYNHAM, RNC SENIOR ADVISER: We will mount an unprecedented effort between now and November 2 to get as many people out to the polls as possible.
HENRY: A close look at the battlegrounds shows the fight for new registrants is as tight as the polls. In Florida, which George W. Bush won by 537 votes, Republicans have added 462,000 voters, Democrats, 458,000. But a whopping 628,000 new registrants aren't affiliated with either party, adding a great bit of unpredictability.
In New Mexico, which Al Gore won by 366 votes, Democrats have added 37,000 voters, Republicans, 35,000. And there's 41,000 new voters with no party affiliation.
In 2000, turnout was 54 percent. Curtis Gans says it could surge as high as 60 percent this time, about 13 to 14 million new voters. And experts say they're more likely to pull the lever for Kerry if they show up.
Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: So, the "Hot Topic" this morning, will those new voters vote? And Ron Brownstein's favorite election conundrum, what if there is an electoral tie? I know you're into that question. I also know that you stayed up to watch the Boston Red Sox game last night.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Very late, yes. You know, every 86 years you can go without sleep, I figure. So you have to congratulate them. I think people in Massachusetts would be feeling a lot better about John Kerry's chances if he had Curt Schilling on his side.
COSTELLO: Good point. Let's get back to election talk right now.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
COSTELLO: You know, with all of the talk of long lines and election monitors and challengers, will those new registered voters bother?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think clearly some of them will. We don't know how many. And I agree with Ed Henry. That is one of the big wildcards in this race.
You know, when pollsters have tried to separate our new voters and first-time voters, by and large John Kerry has been winning among them by fairly comfortable margins. I saw a poll from Tony Fabrizio (ph), a veteran Republican pollster, this week, who said that Kerry's hopes in the battleground states really depend on as many of these voters coming out as possible.
If Curtis Gans is right, and we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 to 14 million new voters, that would be an electorate, Carol, of about 120 million people. If it is that big, it probably does benefit Kerry. The Democrats are hoping it's in that range. The Republicans have been expecting something of a more modest increase, around 112 million.
So, I think if it does get very big, traditionally you would think that would favor the challenger, although obviously there's a lot of faction on the Bush side, too.
COSTELLO: Absolutely. Let's get to your favorite topic of the morning, the Electoral College.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
COSTELLO: I know you're intrigued. Could there really be a tie?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, a tie is within the realm of possibilities. I think what people should be looking at though now is look at the schedule of these candidates and how closely they are following each other's tracks. We are seeing incredible, almost unprecedented stability from the last election to this election. We're probably talking about 10 states, 11 states, that are in play at all, and within that only about 7 or 8 that have, you know, a stronger-than-abstract chance of changing hands.
The Democrats are focusing relentlessly on Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, to some extent Nevada. The Republicans in the Upper Midwest trying to take away Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, and then Pennsylvania and Michigan is somewhat more long shots.
But when you think about it, out of the whole country, and there are some, you know, outliers out there, some polls in Arkansas, Hawaii or New Jersey, but by and large 80 percent of the states are pretty much locked down from where they were last time, an incredible statement about the dug-in lines that we have politically in our country now. COSTELLO: So, let's say it's a 269 to 269 tie. What happens then?
BROWNSTEIN: It goes to the House, and George Bush is president because there are more delegations under Republican control. You know, that seems to me -- if you want to really get into the tie scenarios, Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that don't have winner-take-all in the Electoral College. They allocate the votes by congressional district. George Bush could win one of the two congressional districts in Maine, if you had a 270 to 268 result otherwise, that could get you a tie.
I don't think -- I personally don't think -- you know, it's within the realm of possibilities, I don't think we're going to get a tie. We could have a very narrow result. 2000 was the second narrowest Electoral College victory ever. And unless something breaks, these guys are looking at something, you know, are planning for something very similar.
COSTELLO: A mathematician, by the way, from Youngstown State, says there's a 3.25 percent chance of a tie, just so you know. Ron Brownstein, congratulations for your Red Sox win.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Carol.
COSTELLO: The races, the voters and all of the results, CNN's special primetime election night coverage begins Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. We sure hope you join us then.
Still to come on DAYBREAK, one airline's woes could actually woo passengers to a couple of others.
But first...
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Red Sox rules!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: He's a young man with big dreams. Hear about a special wish that came true. That's just ahead.
Here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Another discount airline, Virginia-based Independence Air, is taking steps to preserve the cash necessary to avoid bankruptcy. The announcement comes a day after the nation's 10th largest airline, ATA, filed for chapter 11 protection. ATA wants to sell its 14 gates at Chicago's Midway Airport, but the city's aviation department has not agreed to that.
USAToday.com travel reporter Ben Mutzabaugh tells us what we can expect now on the airline front. I cannot believe this about Independence. It's just been in business for a couple of months.
BEN MUTZABAUGH, "USA TODAY": Yes, well, you know, it's a sign of the times right now in the airline industry. And even with ATA, they're actually now the fourth carrier to currently be operating under bankruptcy protection, and that's the first time it's happened since 1992.
So, I mean, really it's not a good sign, but some of the other airlines are doing it right now. So, it's not catastrophic, at least not yet anyway.
COSTELLO: Tell us how it might benefit consumers, and how it might benefit AirTran.
MUTZABAUGH: AirTran stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this move. If their deal is approved by the bankruptcy court and, as you mentioned, the city of Chicago, it will give them a hub in Chicago. And as the AirTran CEO says, it will actually give them a true national presence.
Right now, they have a pretty big hub in Atlanta and smaller ones -- smaller mini-hubs in Baltimore and Dallas. But with the Chicago gates, if it's approved, they'll really start to be able to take on some of the bigger national carriers in a way that they haven't been able to before.
COSTELLO: You know, but it always seems when a company gets larger and larger, they raise the prices.
MUTZABAUGH: And that could happen. This would also give them a chance to bring their lower fares, fares that are lower than the major competitors anyway, some more routes. But you also have to ask, you know, AirTran just reported a loss yesterday for the third quarter, so it's never cheap to integrate a new company or a part of a new company into your own.
COSTELLO: Oh.
MUTZABAUGH: So, it seems like a good idea, but there are always risks.
COSTELLO: Oh, you're not kidding. Let's talk about Delta for just a minute.
MUTZABAUGH: Sure.
COSTELLO: Because it reached a deal with its pilots union, and the pilots are going to take a huge cut in pay. Will this really help Delta get back up to speed?
MUTZABAUGH: Well, it will certainly help. They're definitely not out of the woods, but this goes a long way in helping them to avoid chapter 11, which it really seems like they're doing everything they can to avoid bankruptcy. And if they're going to be able to restructure outside of bankruptcy, this was a crucial deal for them to be able to do it.
COSTELLO: Ben Mutzabaugh from "USA Today." Thanks for joining DAYBREAK this morning.
MUTZABAUGH: Thank you.
COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:43 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
In the West Bank, Palestinian cabinet, Mr. Hanan Ashrawi, told us the last hour that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition has improved this morning. She says Arafat left his bed to take part in early morning prayers. He ate some milk and cereal. He's been ill, though, for two weeks now.
In money news, a glut of unsold SUVs and pickup trucks is leading to temporary layoffs at General Motors. The automaker says it will idle five plants and 9,000 workers for a few weeks early next year.
In culture, you remember this image, don't you? I'm sure you do. It is the award-winning poster art of ET, the extraterrestrial, created for the film in what year? 1982. It goes up for auction December 10 and is expected to fetch up to $150,000. That's just crazy.
In sports, it was a long time in coming, but the Boston Red Sox are World Series champions. The Sox beat the Cardinals 3-0 to sweep the series. It's Boston's first World Series in 86 years.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COSTELLO: Let's check in with Bill and Soledad in New York to see what's coming up on "AMERICAN MORNING."
You know, the Boston Red Sox are due to arrive at Fenway Park...
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
COSTELLO: ... at 7:00 a.m. Eastern your time.
HEMMER: Carol, these Yankee fans are tough folks. They're cutting these Red Sox fans no slack today. They're just kind of like getting on top of them and scrunch them down at the highlight of their, what, the greatest day in 100 years.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Jealousy is an ugly thing, isn't it?
HEMMER: I'm telling you.
O'BRIEN: Out and out jealousy.
HEMMER: We salute Boston today. The curse has been reversed. It took them 86 years. But it's done.
O'BRIEN: See, those are the kind of snide remarks that don't help.
HEMMER: Bean Town is going nuts. We'll go there live when the Red Sox arrive back home, expected sometime in the next hour.
O'BRIEN: Also, did you hear? Five days until the election.
HEMMER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Of course, we're talking about it again. Thousands, in fact, could be turned away from the polls because of registration problems. What kind of a mess could it be? Why has it taken so long to resolve these problems? This morning we talk to officials in Iowa and also Ohio, and also we're going to talk with Jeff Toobin about the legalities of all of these things.
HEMMER: Also, one story you've been picking up on today, Yasser Arafat in poor health. What if he leaves a void in the leadership there? What's the impact there for Middle East peace? Ambassador Edward Walker, one of our many guests on that topic today as well. So we'll have it for you.
O'BRIEN: Well, that and much, much more ahead. Carol -- we'll see you in a few minutes.
COSTELLO: We sure will. Thanks to you both.
HEMMER: All right, bye-bye.
COSTELLO: Coming up on DAYBREAK, Red Sox fans everywhere are sleeping off their series hangovers. Actually most of them are still awake, I think. But there's one little boy who has an extra reason to revel this morning. He is awake in St. Louis, and he's going to be live to tell us all about it.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Oh, that's a perfect song to play this morning. We're taking a live look at Fenway Park in Boston, where fans are awaiting the arrival of the Boston Red Sox. Of course, they won the World Series in case you've been living in a cave for the past couple of hours. And the players are due to arrive, and there are a lot of police officers down there. But can you imagine the celebration?
Chris Cotter is here, our sports contributor, and Rob Marciano is also joining us on our sofa set.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Thanks for having a Yankees fan on the set. I appreciate that, Chris.
COSTELLO: We just want to beat you up a little more.
MARCIANO: Well, I'm sure Chris can put some perspective on it.
CHRIS COTTER, CNN SPORTS CONTRIBUTOR: Oh, I'm worried about Red Sox fans, because this is something that's been brewing for so many years now. Everyone is going to want to have a story to tell, and certainly in a 100 years they'll be telling stories about my great- great grandfather was the one who did this or who did that when the Red Sox finally won it.
Here's the thing, though, and I said last week, one of the hottest topics on our airwaves here over the last week is what do Red Sox fans do now? You know, for 86 years they've talked about all of the woe. They've been crying in their beers, telling stories about how it was this close and I was there back in '67 or I was there in '86. And now, you don't have any of those stories anymore.
So, come March and spring training, it's going to be -- I think they're going to take a deep breath and say, where do we go now? We finally won one, you know.
MARCIANO: I'll tell what they do. They can start making little scratch marks on their bedposts, see how many world championships they have and how many they have to catch up to the Yankees.
COTTER: Oh, the Yankees!
COSTELLO: Oh!
COTTER: This is the Yankees fan's response right here.
MARCIANO: No, but given that, you've got to be impressed with the eight straight -- has that ever happened?
COTTER: I cannot remember. Yes, it has happened. I can't remember the last time. I can certainly tell you, though, that it's one of the most dominating World Series performances in history when you talk about how good offensively the Cardinals were coming into this World Series and how they really were completely shut down, and when you talk about Rolen and Edmonds getting one hit combined in the four games.
COSTELLO: Yes, this is the winning play of the game, the last out of the game, and the celebration begins. You know, we have to talk about the St. Louis Cardinals, you're right, because they have a great a baseball team...
COTTER: Right.
COSTELLO: And we have a very emotional sound this morning from the manager, Tony Larussa. So let's listen to that now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY LARUSSA, CARDINALS MANAGER: We started spring training, we thought we had a chance for the ring. And that we had to play good in regular season, a tough division, we did that. Survived two playoffs. So it's a huge disappointment. It's an outstanding club, it's one of the neatest clubs to be around (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Terrific. But we were short. So we're disappointed.
(END VIDEO CLIP) COSTELLO: Oh, you've got to feel for him. This guy has been around a long time. And wasn't he the guy that said he might manage for free if the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series? I mean, he was really into this team.
COTTER: Yes, he's 1-4 now in World Series. He won one with the A's, you know, about 14 years ago, 15 years ago, another very dominating World Series. But 105 wins for this Cardinal team, and it was just too much Red Sox pitching.
You know, they got Tinely (ph) hitting when they needed it, but it was really the starters. When you talk about Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and then Lowe last night, all three of those pitchers zero earned runs in 20 innings for those starters. You can't -- I mean, they were dominating, and there was nothing the Cardinals could do about it.
MARCIANO: But the Cardinals offense has been dominating all year. I mean, what happened to Pujols and the rest of the team?
COTTER: You know, Pujols was OK, Edgar Renteria gave him a shot. The problem is the middle of that lineup when you talk about Edmonds and you talk about Rolen, completely silent, and that's what you need to have to be able to, you know, balance out what the guys like Edger Renteria and Albert Pujols were doing.
COSTELLO: OK. Before we go on, there was a very special fan in the stands in St. Louis. His name is Joshua Young. He's 12 years old. His dad actually is on the phone. Joshua has cystic fibrosis, and the Make A Wish Foundation, you know, paid his way to make it to the game, because that's where he really wanted to be. He's a Boston Red Sox fan, and Joshua's dad, Jeff, is joining us now.
I have to ask you, how is Joshua doing? Is he OK?
JEFF YOUNG, FATHER OF MAKE A WISH FDN. RECIPIENT: Yes, he's doing pretty well. He's a little bit sleepy right now. We were up until about 1:30 celebrating. But, no, he's doing great.
COSTELLO: And what did it mean to him to be in the stands as the -- oh, look, we're looking at Johnny Damon hitting that homerun on the fourth pitch. How did it feel for Joshua?
YOUNG: He was psyched. He had a great time. They actually brought him into the locker room and he met all of the Red Sox players, or most of them.
COSTELLO: You're kidding.
YOUNG: No, it was great. The Major League Baseball people were great. He was so thrilled.
COSTELLO: So, he got to meet Johnny Damon?
YOUNG: He did. He got his autograph, too.
COSTELLO: What was that like?
YOUNG: He was -- I wasn't there. I was outside, but he was just jumping up and down. He was thrilled.
COSTELLO: So, they didn't allow you in, only Joshua.
YOUNG: Yes, just Josh. And I think he felt pretty special about that.
COSTELLO: We have some pictures of Joshua, because he was on our air yesterday in our 10:00 a.m. hour, and he was just so excited, giving the high fives. Why is he such a big Boston Red Sox fan?
YOUNG: I think it has to do with the fact that actually both his grandmothers were really big Red Sox fans. And actually my mother was at the game with us last night, and she was thrilled as well. I think it's in the genes with Joshua.
COSTELLO: As it is with so many Boston Red Sox -- there are you with your son.
YOUNG: Exactly.
COSTELLO: You know, Chris Cotter was saying something interesting. Now that the Boston Red Sox have broken the curse, they've won the World Series for the first time in 86 years, now there's nothing for Boston Red Sox to really, like, talk about.
YOUNG: Yes. Well, they'll talk about doing it back to back, I guess.
COSTELLO: See, that's the spirit.
YOUNG: I will say, this is just great. It was tremendous to be there and have that happen. It was just great. The Make A Wish people were great.
COSTELLO: Yes, it's fantastic that Joshua got to go to the game. And, Jeff, thank you for joining DAYBREAK via phone this morning. We appreciate it. And our best to Joshua, too.
YOUNG: All right, I'll tell him.
COSTELLO: It must be hard on a 12-year-old kid.
COTTER: Oh, yes.
COSTELLO: Yes.
COTTER: But a big moment to be able to see the Red Sox and to know what it means and how big of a place in history that is for him to be a part of it. That was great.
COSTELLO: Absolutely.
Your chance to win a DAYBREAK coffee mug in two minutes, but first this is DAYBREAK for a Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Oh, one last look at Fenway Park in Boston as the crowds have gathered to await the team. They're arriving from Logan at any time now between 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Of course, "AMERICAN MORNING" will provide those thrilling pictures for you.
But now, it is your chance to win a DAYBREAK coffee mug.
MARCIANO: Always an exciting part of this show, and I get to read you the two questions that we have. The first one is, what is the name of the legislation that will affect your checks starting today? And according to Ben Mutzabaugh, which two airlines could benefit from the ATA bankruptcy?
We'll have the name of the winner tomorrow of who will win that coveted coffee mug.
COSTELLO: Chris...
COTTER: I've got a good question for you for tomorrow.
COSTELLO: What?
COTTER: What kind of cereal did Yasser Arafat have this morning? I'm guessing it was like Apple Jacks. He looks like an Apple Jacks kind of a guy. Don't you think?
COSTELLO: No, seriously, it is good news that Yasser Arafat was able to eat today.
COTTER: Of course.
COSTELLO: And he is feeling better, but he's still very sick. They'll have much of that for you, too, on "AMERICAN MORNING."
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Aired October 28, 2004 - 06:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello.
"Now in the News."
How sick is Yasser Arafat? Palestinian cabinet, Mr. Hanan Ashrawi, told me an hour ago Arafat was able to get out of bed for morning prayers. It comes one day after he was described as too weak to walk and unable to keep food down.
U.S. warplanes have struck again in Fallujah. The military says it launched a precision strike on a building, where insurgents loyal to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi were meeting.
Waterspouts off of Malibu. Take a look at this. The second big storm this month brought rain, snow, floods and mudslides to California. I-215 was shut down. Seventeen thousand homes lost power. Water was four feet deep at one intersection in Sun City.
Fans in Boston celebrate the first Red Sox championship in 86 years, a four-game World Series sweep over the St. Louis Cardinals. More with Chris Cotter and a special Red Sox fan just about 20 minutes from now.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COSTELLO: Five days and counting until we vote for president, state and local candidates; five days, unless you took advantage of early voting that is.
It may have been a great idea, and maybe it's still a good idea, but some states did offer that early voting. But in many of these places, depending on the time of day, it could be a two-hour wait or longer to cast your ballot. And speaking of those thousands upon thousands of newly-registered voters, the question remains: Will they actually vote on November 2?
CNN's Ed Henry has more on that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Record numbers of new voters are being added to the rolls across the nation, sparked by intense interest in the presidential battle.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Is everyone registered to vote here? HENRY: Allies of President Bush and John Kerry have each spent millions to register newcomers. Democrats scored in key battlegrounds.
STEVE ROSENTHAL, AMERICA COMING TOGETHER: If everybody who has registered comes out and votes, that should be a huge boon for John Kerry.
HENRY: That a big if. In an election full of unknowns, this may be the biggest wildcard of all. Will many of these new voters vote next Tuesday? Yes, says independent expert Curtis Gans. He's predicting a sharp hike in all turnout, including first-timers.
CURTIS GANS, STUDY OF AMERICAN ELECTORATE: This is the most emotional election we have had since at least 1968. The passions of pro-Bush and anti-Bush people are very high, and that's what will drive them to the polls.
HENRY: Each party claims to have signed up about three million new voters, and both sides are vowing to get them to show up.
ROBERT TRAYNHAM, RNC SENIOR ADVISER: We will mount an unprecedented effort between now and November 2 to get as many people out to the polls as possible.
HENRY: A close look at the battlegrounds shows the fight for new registrants is as tight as the polls. In Florida, which George W. Bush won by 537 votes, Republicans have added 462,000 voters, Democrats, 458,000. But a whopping 628,000 new registrants aren't affiliated with either party, adding a great bit of unpredictability.
In New Mexico, which Al Gore won by 366 votes, Democrats have added 37,000 voters, Republicans, 35,000. And there's 41,000 new voters with no party affiliation.
In 2000, turnout was 54 percent. Curtis Gans says it could surge as high as 60 percent this time, about 13 to 14 million new voters. And experts say they're more likely to pull the lever for Kerry if they show up.
Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: So, the "Hot Topic" this morning, will those new voters vote? And Ron Brownstein's favorite election conundrum, what if there is an electoral tie? I know you're into that question. I also know that you stayed up to watch the Boston Red Sox game last night.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Very late, yes. You know, every 86 years you can go without sleep, I figure. So you have to congratulate them. I think people in Massachusetts would be feeling a lot better about John Kerry's chances if he had Curt Schilling on his side.
COSTELLO: Good point. Let's get back to election talk right now.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
COSTELLO: You know, with all of the talk of long lines and election monitors and challengers, will those new registered voters bother?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think clearly some of them will. We don't know how many. And I agree with Ed Henry. That is one of the big wildcards in this race.
You know, when pollsters have tried to separate our new voters and first-time voters, by and large John Kerry has been winning among them by fairly comfortable margins. I saw a poll from Tony Fabrizio (ph), a veteran Republican pollster, this week, who said that Kerry's hopes in the battleground states really depend on as many of these voters coming out as possible.
If Curtis Gans is right, and we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 to 14 million new voters, that would be an electorate, Carol, of about 120 million people. If it is that big, it probably does benefit Kerry. The Democrats are hoping it's in that range. The Republicans have been expecting something of a more modest increase, around 112 million.
So, I think if it does get very big, traditionally you would think that would favor the challenger, although obviously there's a lot of faction on the Bush side, too.
COSTELLO: Absolutely. Let's get to your favorite topic of the morning, the Electoral College.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
COSTELLO: I know you're intrigued. Could there really be a tie?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, a tie is within the realm of possibilities. I think what people should be looking at though now is look at the schedule of these candidates and how closely they are following each other's tracks. We are seeing incredible, almost unprecedented stability from the last election to this election. We're probably talking about 10 states, 11 states, that are in play at all, and within that only about 7 or 8 that have, you know, a stronger-than-abstract chance of changing hands.
The Democrats are focusing relentlessly on Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, to some extent Nevada. The Republicans in the Upper Midwest trying to take away Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, and then Pennsylvania and Michigan is somewhat more long shots.
But when you think about it, out of the whole country, and there are some, you know, outliers out there, some polls in Arkansas, Hawaii or New Jersey, but by and large 80 percent of the states are pretty much locked down from where they were last time, an incredible statement about the dug-in lines that we have politically in our country now. COSTELLO: So, let's say it's a 269 to 269 tie. What happens then?
BROWNSTEIN: It goes to the House, and George Bush is president because there are more delegations under Republican control. You know, that seems to me -- if you want to really get into the tie scenarios, Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that don't have winner-take-all in the Electoral College. They allocate the votes by congressional district. George Bush could win one of the two congressional districts in Maine, if you had a 270 to 268 result otherwise, that could get you a tie.
I don't think -- I personally don't think -- you know, it's within the realm of possibilities, I don't think we're going to get a tie. We could have a very narrow result. 2000 was the second narrowest Electoral College victory ever. And unless something breaks, these guys are looking at something, you know, are planning for something very similar.
COSTELLO: A mathematician, by the way, from Youngstown State, says there's a 3.25 percent chance of a tie, just so you know. Ron Brownstein, congratulations for your Red Sox win.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Carol.
COSTELLO: The races, the voters and all of the results, CNN's special primetime election night coverage begins Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. We sure hope you join us then.
Still to come on DAYBREAK, one airline's woes could actually woo passengers to a couple of others.
But first...
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Red Sox rules!
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COSTELLO: He's a young man with big dreams. Hear about a special wish that came true. That's just ahead.
Here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.
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COSTELLO: Another discount airline, Virginia-based Independence Air, is taking steps to preserve the cash necessary to avoid bankruptcy. The announcement comes a day after the nation's 10th largest airline, ATA, filed for chapter 11 protection. ATA wants to sell its 14 gates at Chicago's Midway Airport, but the city's aviation department has not agreed to that.
USAToday.com travel reporter Ben Mutzabaugh tells us what we can expect now on the airline front. I cannot believe this about Independence. It's just been in business for a couple of months.
BEN MUTZABAUGH, "USA TODAY": Yes, well, you know, it's a sign of the times right now in the airline industry. And even with ATA, they're actually now the fourth carrier to currently be operating under bankruptcy protection, and that's the first time it's happened since 1992.
So, I mean, really it's not a good sign, but some of the other airlines are doing it right now. So, it's not catastrophic, at least not yet anyway.
COSTELLO: Tell us how it might benefit consumers, and how it might benefit AirTran.
MUTZABAUGH: AirTran stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this move. If their deal is approved by the bankruptcy court and, as you mentioned, the city of Chicago, it will give them a hub in Chicago. And as the AirTran CEO says, it will actually give them a true national presence.
Right now, they have a pretty big hub in Atlanta and smaller ones -- smaller mini-hubs in Baltimore and Dallas. But with the Chicago gates, if it's approved, they'll really start to be able to take on some of the bigger national carriers in a way that they haven't been able to before.
COSTELLO: You know, but it always seems when a company gets larger and larger, they raise the prices.
MUTZABAUGH: And that could happen. This would also give them a chance to bring their lower fares, fares that are lower than the major competitors anyway, some more routes. But you also have to ask, you know, AirTran just reported a loss yesterday for the third quarter, so it's never cheap to integrate a new company or a part of a new company into your own.
COSTELLO: Oh.
MUTZABAUGH: So, it seems like a good idea, but there are always risks.
COSTELLO: Oh, you're not kidding. Let's talk about Delta for just a minute.
MUTZABAUGH: Sure.
COSTELLO: Because it reached a deal with its pilots union, and the pilots are going to take a huge cut in pay. Will this really help Delta get back up to speed?
MUTZABAUGH: Well, it will certainly help. They're definitely not out of the woods, but this goes a long way in helping them to avoid chapter 11, which it really seems like they're doing everything they can to avoid bankruptcy. And if they're going to be able to restructure outside of bankruptcy, this was a crucial deal for them to be able to do it.
COSTELLO: Ben Mutzabaugh from "USA Today." Thanks for joining DAYBREAK this morning.
MUTZABAUGH: Thank you.
COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It is 6:43 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
In the West Bank, Palestinian cabinet, Mr. Hanan Ashrawi, told us the last hour that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition has improved this morning. She says Arafat left his bed to take part in early morning prayers. He ate some milk and cereal. He's been ill, though, for two weeks now.
In money news, a glut of unsold SUVs and pickup trucks is leading to temporary layoffs at General Motors. The automaker says it will idle five plants and 9,000 workers for a few weeks early next year.
In culture, you remember this image, don't you? I'm sure you do. It is the award-winning poster art of ET, the extraterrestrial, created for the film in what year? 1982. It goes up for auction December 10 and is expected to fetch up to $150,000. That's just crazy.
In sports, it was a long time in coming, but the Boston Red Sox are World Series champions. The Sox beat the Cardinals 3-0 to sweep the series. It's Boston's first World Series in 86 years.
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COSTELLO: Let's check in with Bill and Soledad in New York to see what's coming up on "AMERICAN MORNING."
You know, the Boston Red Sox are due to arrive at Fenway Park...
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
COSTELLO: ... at 7:00 a.m. Eastern your time.
HEMMER: Carol, these Yankee fans are tough folks. They're cutting these Red Sox fans no slack today. They're just kind of like getting on top of them and scrunch them down at the highlight of their, what, the greatest day in 100 years.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Jealousy is an ugly thing, isn't it?
HEMMER: I'm telling you.
O'BRIEN: Out and out jealousy.
HEMMER: We salute Boston today. The curse has been reversed. It took them 86 years. But it's done.
O'BRIEN: See, those are the kind of snide remarks that don't help.
HEMMER: Bean Town is going nuts. We'll go there live when the Red Sox arrive back home, expected sometime in the next hour.
O'BRIEN: Also, did you hear? Five days until the election.
HEMMER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Of course, we're talking about it again. Thousands, in fact, could be turned away from the polls because of registration problems. What kind of a mess could it be? Why has it taken so long to resolve these problems? This morning we talk to officials in Iowa and also Ohio, and also we're going to talk with Jeff Toobin about the legalities of all of these things.
HEMMER: Also, one story you've been picking up on today, Yasser Arafat in poor health. What if he leaves a void in the leadership there? What's the impact there for Middle East peace? Ambassador Edward Walker, one of our many guests on that topic today as well. So we'll have it for you.
O'BRIEN: Well, that and much, much more ahead. Carol -- we'll see you in a few minutes.
COSTELLO: We sure will. Thanks to you both.
HEMMER: All right, bye-bye.
COSTELLO: Coming up on DAYBREAK, Red Sox fans everywhere are sleeping off their series hangovers. Actually most of them are still awake, I think. But there's one little boy who has an extra reason to revel this morning. He is awake in St. Louis, and he's going to be live to tell us all about it.
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COSTELLO: Oh, that's a perfect song to play this morning. We're taking a live look at Fenway Park in Boston, where fans are awaiting the arrival of the Boston Red Sox. Of course, they won the World Series in case you've been living in a cave for the past couple of hours. And the players are due to arrive, and there are a lot of police officers down there. But can you imagine the celebration?
Chris Cotter is here, our sports contributor, and Rob Marciano is also joining us on our sofa set.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Thanks for having a Yankees fan on the set. I appreciate that, Chris.
COSTELLO: We just want to beat you up a little more.
MARCIANO: Well, I'm sure Chris can put some perspective on it.
CHRIS COTTER, CNN SPORTS CONTRIBUTOR: Oh, I'm worried about Red Sox fans, because this is something that's been brewing for so many years now. Everyone is going to want to have a story to tell, and certainly in a 100 years they'll be telling stories about my great- great grandfather was the one who did this or who did that when the Red Sox finally won it.
Here's the thing, though, and I said last week, one of the hottest topics on our airwaves here over the last week is what do Red Sox fans do now? You know, for 86 years they've talked about all of the woe. They've been crying in their beers, telling stories about how it was this close and I was there back in '67 or I was there in '86. And now, you don't have any of those stories anymore.
So, come March and spring training, it's going to be -- I think they're going to take a deep breath and say, where do we go now? We finally won one, you know.
MARCIANO: I'll tell what they do. They can start making little scratch marks on their bedposts, see how many world championships they have and how many they have to catch up to the Yankees.
COTTER: Oh, the Yankees!
COSTELLO: Oh!
COTTER: This is the Yankees fan's response right here.
MARCIANO: No, but given that, you've got to be impressed with the eight straight -- has that ever happened?
COTTER: I cannot remember. Yes, it has happened. I can't remember the last time. I can certainly tell you, though, that it's one of the most dominating World Series performances in history when you talk about how good offensively the Cardinals were coming into this World Series and how they really were completely shut down, and when you talk about Rolen and Edmonds getting one hit combined in the four games.
COSTELLO: Yes, this is the winning play of the game, the last out of the game, and the celebration begins. You know, we have to talk about the St. Louis Cardinals, you're right, because they have a great a baseball team...
COTTER: Right.
COSTELLO: And we have a very emotional sound this morning from the manager, Tony Larussa. So let's listen to that now.
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TONY LARUSSA, CARDINALS MANAGER: We started spring training, we thought we had a chance for the ring. And that we had to play good in regular season, a tough division, we did that. Survived two playoffs. So it's a huge disappointment. It's an outstanding club, it's one of the neatest clubs to be around (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Terrific. But we were short. So we're disappointed.
(END VIDEO CLIP) COSTELLO: Oh, you've got to feel for him. This guy has been around a long time. And wasn't he the guy that said he might manage for free if the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series? I mean, he was really into this team.
COTTER: Yes, he's 1-4 now in World Series. He won one with the A's, you know, about 14 years ago, 15 years ago, another very dominating World Series. But 105 wins for this Cardinal team, and it was just too much Red Sox pitching.
You know, they got Tinely (ph) hitting when they needed it, but it was really the starters. When you talk about Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and then Lowe last night, all three of those pitchers zero earned runs in 20 innings for those starters. You can't -- I mean, they were dominating, and there was nothing the Cardinals could do about it.
MARCIANO: But the Cardinals offense has been dominating all year. I mean, what happened to Pujols and the rest of the team?
COTTER: You know, Pujols was OK, Edgar Renteria gave him a shot. The problem is the middle of that lineup when you talk about Edmonds and you talk about Rolen, completely silent, and that's what you need to have to be able to, you know, balance out what the guys like Edger Renteria and Albert Pujols were doing.
COSTELLO: OK. Before we go on, there was a very special fan in the stands in St. Louis. His name is Joshua Young. He's 12 years old. His dad actually is on the phone. Joshua has cystic fibrosis, and the Make A Wish Foundation, you know, paid his way to make it to the game, because that's where he really wanted to be. He's a Boston Red Sox fan, and Joshua's dad, Jeff, is joining us now.
I have to ask you, how is Joshua doing? Is he OK?
JEFF YOUNG, FATHER OF MAKE A WISH FDN. RECIPIENT: Yes, he's doing pretty well. He's a little bit sleepy right now. We were up until about 1:30 celebrating. But, no, he's doing great.
COSTELLO: And what did it mean to him to be in the stands as the -- oh, look, we're looking at Johnny Damon hitting that homerun on the fourth pitch. How did it feel for Joshua?
YOUNG: He was psyched. He had a great time. They actually brought him into the locker room and he met all of the Red Sox players, or most of them.
COSTELLO: You're kidding.
YOUNG: No, it was great. The Major League Baseball people were great. He was so thrilled.
COSTELLO: So, he got to meet Johnny Damon?
YOUNG: He did. He got his autograph, too.
COSTELLO: What was that like?
YOUNG: He was -- I wasn't there. I was outside, but he was just jumping up and down. He was thrilled.
COSTELLO: So, they didn't allow you in, only Joshua.
YOUNG: Yes, just Josh. And I think he felt pretty special about that.
COSTELLO: We have some pictures of Joshua, because he was on our air yesterday in our 10:00 a.m. hour, and he was just so excited, giving the high fives. Why is he such a big Boston Red Sox fan?
YOUNG: I think it has to do with the fact that actually both his grandmothers were really big Red Sox fans. And actually my mother was at the game with us last night, and she was thrilled as well. I think it's in the genes with Joshua.
COSTELLO: As it is with so many Boston Red Sox -- there are you with your son.
YOUNG: Exactly.
COSTELLO: You know, Chris Cotter was saying something interesting. Now that the Boston Red Sox have broken the curse, they've won the World Series for the first time in 86 years, now there's nothing for Boston Red Sox to really, like, talk about.
YOUNG: Yes. Well, they'll talk about doing it back to back, I guess.
COSTELLO: See, that's the spirit.
YOUNG: I will say, this is just great. It was tremendous to be there and have that happen. It was just great. The Make A Wish people were great.
COSTELLO: Yes, it's fantastic that Joshua got to go to the game. And, Jeff, thank you for joining DAYBREAK via phone this morning. We appreciate it. And our best to Joshua, too.
YOUNG: All right, I'll tell him.
COSTELLO: It must be hard on a 12-year-old kid.
COTTER: Oh, yes.
COSTELLO: Yes.
COTTER: But a big moment to be able to see the Red Sox and to know what it means and how big of a place in history that is for him to be a part of it. That was great.
COSTELLO: Absolutely.
Your chance to win a DAYBREAK coffee mug in two minutes, but first this is DAYBREAK for a Thursday morning.
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COSTELLO: Oh, one last look at Fenway Park in Boston as the crowds have gathered to await the team. They're arriving from Logan at any time now between 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Of course, "AMERICAN MORNING" will provide those thrilling pictures for you.
But now, it is your chance to win a DAYBREAK coffee mug.
MARCIANO: Always an exciting part of this show, and I get to read you the two questions that we have. The first one is, what is the name of the legislation that will affect your checks starting today? And according to Ben Mutzabaugh, which two airlines could benefit from the ATA bankruptcy?
We'll have the name of the winner tomorrow of who will win that coveted coffee mug.
COSTELLO: Chris...
COTTER: I've got a good question for you for tomorrow.
COSTELLO: What?
COTTER: What kind of cereal did Yasser Arafat have this morning? I'm guessing it was like Apple Jacks. He looks like an Apple Jacks kind of a guy. Don't you think?
COSTELLO: No, seriously, it is good news that Yasser Arafat was able to eat today.
COTTER: Of course.
COSTELLO: And he is feeling better, but he's still very sick. They'll have much of that for you, too, on "AMERICAN MORNING."
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