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Lou Dobbs Tonight

Complete Coverage of Election Eve; Interviews with Pat Buchanan, James Carville

Aired November 01, 2004 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I see a great day coming for America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is the most important election of our lives.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, one more day. We take a look at the latest and last polls. Our correspondents and analysts focus on the battleground states. We'll have complete coverage.

I'll talk with former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, who says President Bush will win a decisive victory.

I'll also be talking with Democratic strategist and "CROSSFIRE" host James Carville, who's equally confident that Senator Kerry will win.

Also tonight, voter registration up sharply. The pollsters expect new voters to have a major, perhaps decisive voice in this election.

And attorneys already fighting pre-election battles in Ohio. The sparring could be a warning of much bigger legal challenges around the country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DANIEL TOKAJI, OHIO STATE LAW PROFESSOR: We can expect to see whoever is on the losing side in the initial count to bring a lawsuit.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: And the race to call a winner election night. Network news organizations are determined to avoid a repeat of the 2000 election night fiasco. We'll have a special report.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, November 1. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs. DOBBS: Good evening.

Twelve hours from now, millions of Americans will begin casting their ballots in what is expected to be one of the tightest presidential elections in years. President Bush and Senator Kerry are in a statistical dead heat.

Today, the candidates launched a final nonstop effort to mobilize their supporters and to win over the few remaining undecided voters.

In just moments, we'll have a report on the Kerry campaign. But, first, we're going to Dana Bash with President Bush's campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States and Mrs. Laura Bush!

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A dramatic arrival in the familiar trappings of the presidency, staged to set the incumbent apart from his challenger, staged to show confidence.

CURT SCHILLING, RED SOX: It sounds like we've got a few Red Sox fans out here, too.

(CHEERS)

SCHILLING: And it sounds like we have a few George Bush fans out here, too.

(CHEERS)

BASH: Then an introduction by Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, hero of John Kerry's hometown.

BUSH: There's nothing like an early morning rally in the great state of Ohio!

BASH: Ohio is the first in a seven-stop Bush sprint. He won here in 2000, but it's in jeopardy because of job loss, which he acknowledges.

BUSH: I know the economy of this state has been through a lot, but we are moving in the right direction.

BASH: The president's top aide boasts they'll win Ohio and then some.

KARL ROVE, BUSH STRATEGIST: We're ahead. We're going to win. We're going to win. We will win Florida and Ohio. We will take at least two or three or four states that were won by Gore in the last election.

BASH: After Ohio, four of those Gore blue states are on the itinerary -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico -- before going home to Texas.

Along the way, the president uncharacteristically seeks out reporters.

BUSH: I just want to assure you I've got the energy and the optimism and the enthusiasm to cross the line.

BASH: Public bravado, but some nervousness behind the scenes. Bush aides concede historically undecideds usually don't break for the incumbent.

Mr. Bush doesn't hold the majority in many states he needs to win. But the president is running on anti-terrorism credentials he thinks can help defy trends.

BUSH: I want to continue telling the people what I intend to do to protect them.

BASH: That, aides hope, will make undecideds think twice before switching horses. But the reality is, at this point, the president's already made his policy arguments, already torn into his opponent. All that's left for him is the final sales pitch.

BUSH: I ask you to come stand with me.

BASH (on camera): Now it's about the ground game, where Democrats traditionally have the upper hand. But Bush aides say they have 1.4 million volunteers. That's three times what they had four years ago.

But they also concede the Democrats' turnout operation is well funded and, therefore, could be hard to match.

Dana Bash, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Senator Kerry today called on voters to hold President Bush accountable and to set this country on a new path. Senator Kerry today made his final campaign swing across four critical battleground states. Frank Buckley reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KERRY: So are you ready to take this thing and win and finish it off and get the job done?

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator John Kerry fired up his supporters in Florida for one last time, the state where the 2000 election ended, where Kerry began his last full day of campaigning.

Next stop, Wisconsin, where Kerry donned a Boston Red Sox cap and rallied the base. In the rain in Milwaukee, Kerry asking the faithful to bring their friends to the polls, too. KERRY: I need you in these hours to go out and do the hard work, knock on those doors, make those phone calls, talk to friends, take people to the polls, help us change the direction of this great nation for the better.

BUCKLEY: Kerry's message on election eve: He is the man for the middle class.

KERRY: George Bush keeps choosing the wealthy, the powerful, the drug companies, the oil companies. I think the White House ought to be occupied by a champion for the middle class and those struggling to get in it.

BUCKLEY: The final day fly-around only one way the Kerry campaign got out the get-out-the-vote message. Online...

KERRY: We're going to put the people back in the driver's seat.

BUCKLEY: ... this video was mailed to Kerry supporters, who helped the campaign raise $80 million online.

As Kerry works some of the last rope lines of the campaign, his top advisers were confidently predicting victory.

(on camera): Those Kerry strategists saying they believe undecided voters and newly registered voters will break their way on Election Day. Kerry also putting his faith in a ground game of a million volunteers across the country.

Frank Buckley, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: One of the key factors in this election could well be the large increase in the number of people who've registered to vote. Seventy percent of the voting age population has registered. That's a 40-year high. But it leaves open the question: Will they vote?

Lisa Sylvester reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In battleground state Ohio, canvassers are going door to door to try to squeak out an extra vote for their respective candidates.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi. I'm Sandy, and I'm out walking and working for President George W. Bush, encouraging people to get out and vote.

SYLVESTER: Thousands of volunteers have descended on the swing states, working the phones, in search of that one truly undecided voter.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi. This is Claudia with... DAVE BECKWITH, RNC SPOKESMAN: Everything's ramped up by a factor of three or more. We've got more volunteers, more signs, more contacts, more phone calls. Everything is faster and bigger.

SYLVESTER: This year, 10 million more people are registered to vote than in the 2000 presidential race. In Florida, voter registration is up 8.2 percent; Pennsylvania, 5.1 percent; Iowa, 4.5 percent; West Virginia, 5.9 percent; and Ohio, 5 percent.

CURTIS GANS, COMMITTEE FOR THE STUDY OF THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE: Most people that you talk to say that this is the most important election in their lifetimes, you know, and I feel that that's true in terms of anything I've sensed, you know, and I've been around since 1937.

SYLVESTER: What matters most now is voter turnout. Young people in particular are being targeted with get-out-the-vote drives. In the last presidential race, a third of all 18- to 24-year-olds cast ballots.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you guys registered to vote?

SYLVESTER: This year, that number is expected to top 40 percent.

KAY MAXWELL, LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS: I think a lot of us were concerned after 2000 that we might see a decrease in registration and participation because of people being frustrated with the problems that occurred in 2000. So what's exciting is that we have seen just the opposite.

SYLVESTER: Higher voter turnout has typically worked in the Democrats' favor. But, this year, Republicans know they have to get out the vote to stay in the game.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: The Committee for the Study of the American Electorate expects actual voter turnout to be 12 million to 15 million higher than in the 2000 presidential race, and those numbers are expected to be on par, if not higher, than turnout in the 1992 election -- Lou.

DOBBS: It looks like a lot of interest, to say the very least.

Lisa, thank you.

Lisa Sylvester.

Well, voters in 34 states will also decide dozens of ballot initiatives tomorrow on issues that range from gay marriage to illegal immigration. The results of those ballots could well have national implications.

Casey Wian has the report for us -- Casey.

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, ballot propositions are usually considered to be local matters. But national issues are taking over and some could affect the outcome of the presidential race.

Tomorrow, voters in 34 states will decide 163 ballot initiatives and referenda. California, as usual, leads with 16. Surprisingly, Rhode Island has the second most, 14.

In Ohio, a ban on gay marriage is the only initiative on the ballot. It could bring out large numbers of conservative voters and help President Bush in a critical swing state. Gay marriage bans are on the ballot in 11 states.

Eight states will decide health-care measures. California has eight of those, including a bond issue for stem cell research, tax hikes for mental health and emergency room care and an employer- provided health-care mandate.

Perhaps the most controversial initiative is in Arizona where Proposition 200 would require proof of citizenship for voter registration and prevent illegal aliens from receiving state welfare benefits. Even though most state lawmakers have come out against Proposition 200, it's still ahead in the polls -- Lou.

DOBBS: And that's what makes these referenda so important, giving voters a chance to initiate and to resolve these issues.

Thank you very much.

Casey Wian.

Well, still ahead here, why the Buckeye State could be the center of controversy in this election. Battles already underway tonight in Ohio. We'll have that special report for you.

And the race to the finish. Former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan predicts a decisive victory for President Bush. Democratic strategist James Carville -- well, he predicts a very different outcome, as you might expect. They'll both join me next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: A major development in Ohio that could effect voting in the critical battleground state. Two federal judges today ruled that the political parties cannot challenge the eligibility of voters at polling places. The Republicans quickly appealed the decisions.

Dan Lothian has the report from Columbus.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): In the key battleground state of Ohio with its 20 electoral votes up for grabs, an intense get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans and Democrats, even as attorneys for both parties wage a preelection battle in the courts.

TOKAJI: It's not surprising after Bush versus Gore that both parties would see the litigation strategy as being almost as important as the political strategy.

LOTHIAN; First, Democrats have so far succeeded in keeping partisan challengers searching for ineligible voters or fraud out of polling places. It's not what Republicans wanted, so they've appealed.

MARK WEAVER, RNC LEGAL COUNSEL: We know that the eyes of the nation are on Ohio, and everyone wants this to be a fair election on Tuesday.

JENNIFER PALMER, KERRY CAMPAIGN SPOKESWOMAN: It's always been our position that there should not be people challenging the right to vote at the polls on Election Day.

LOTHIAN: Democrats argued the presence of challengers would suppress the vote.

Another ruling means provisional ballots will only be counted if voters are in the right precinct. It's not what Democrats wanted.

And there have been other issues in the Buckeye State: challenges over some 35,000 new registrations -- that for now seems settled; and concerns over punch-card ballots -- 70 percent of Ohio voters will be using them. Remember what happened in Florida?

In the end, legal experts say none of this will really matter unless the final count is within the margin of litigation. In other words, a razor-thin result.

TOKAJI: If it's 1 percent or less, I'd say that we're clearly within the margin of litigation, and we can expect to see whoever is on the losing side in the initial count to bring a lawsuit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LOTHIAN: I just checked a few minutes ago, and still no decision yet on that challenge by Republicans.

Now one thing we do know, Lou, is that both Republicans and Democrats say that they have hundreds of lawyers here on the ground not only to deal with the current legal situation, but with whatever may come up after the election -- Lou.

DOBBS: Well, Dan, let's just hope very little comes up.

Thank you very much.

Dan Lothian.

With such a tight race on the eve of this election, we turn now to our Senior Political Analyst Bill,Schneider.

Bill, good to have you here.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: My pleasure. DOBBS: One of the things that a lot of people are looking at are these electoral maps, trying to judge, obviously, what's going to happen, and there's a wide variety of views. I was wondering if you could give us just your representation of what some of the major news organizations are doing.

SCHNEIDER: OK. Let's take a look because the national polls don't tell you much. It's the electoral vote that matters. Three major news organizations have come out with their electoral maps.

Let's take a look at this one from "The New York Times." This is their estimate of the electoral vote tomorrow in the election. Two hundred and twenty-seven states -- those are the red states -- they are -- 227 electoral votes in those red states for George Bush.

They give Kerry 242 electoral votes in those blue states, which you see are concentrated on the West Coast and in the Northeast, and 69 electoral votes, they claim -- those are the yellow states -- are still up for grabs.

So they give Kerry a slight edge. How many does it take to win? Two hundred seventy. So the answer is neither of these guys has 270. It all depends on those tossup states.

Now compare that with "The Washington Post" electoral map. What's the figure for "The Washington Post"? The answer is Bush, 227, exactly the same, but Kerry 232, instead of 242, with 79 up for grabs, instead of 69.

The sharp-eyed among you -- I assume that includes you, Lou -- will know what the difference is between "The New York Times" map and "The Washington Post" map, and the answer is Minnesota. Minnesota, in this case, as you can see, is a yellow state.

"The Washington Post" calls it a tossup state. "The New York Times" put it in the Kerry category. But, otherwise, very similar. Neither candidate getting 270.

And finally,"USA Today" has an electoral map in which they give Bush a very similar number of votes, 226 in the red states, but Kerry's vote total is noticeably lower. It's down to 181 because "USA Today" puts a lot more states in the tossup category, 131 electoral votes in the tossup category, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

So they see a lot more tossups, and nobody has a winner.

DOBBS: It's fascinating and illustrative. From about 80 -- what was it, about 70-some-odd swing state electoral votes to 131 in the "USA Today" example, Bill? What are the critical swing states as you see it right now?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I've looked at the polls, which is why I'm a little addled right now, because I've looked at the polls in all the states, and there are eight states that, as far as I can tell, you just can't call. These states either are all very close polls or the polls are a little bit for Bush, a little bit for Kerry, they're kind of all over the place.

Three of them are big states -- Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. All three of those states have at least 20 electoral votes. Three of them are middle-sized -- rather, two of them are middle sized states, Wisconsin and Iowa, Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes, Iowa with seven.

And then there are three little states, not by geography, but by population. New Hampshire up in the corner there -- that has four electoral votes, New Mexico has five, and, if you look way over in the left-hand corner, those islands out there, that's Hawaii. Whoever dreamed Hawaii would be a tossup state?

DOBBS: And the partisans, Bill, as you're going through this, are thinking to themselves which way this is going to -- and they're looking for the advantage, obviously, for their candidate. But is it instructive that we see four votes in New Hampshire, four in Hawaii, both now in your battleground states?

SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, that's right. It is instructive. I mean, Hawaii only votes Republican when there's a Republican landslide, like for Nixon in '72 and for Reagan in '84. What's going on there? We don't know. But Dick Cheney was there the other day.

DOBBS: And Vice President Gore as well.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, yes.

DOBBS: So this is...

SCHNEIDER: This is normally a very Democratic state. I mean, if Hawaii votes Republican, it should be a Republican landslide, but there's no indication of that anywhere else.

DOBBS: I hear you saying it's going to be a very interesting evening tomorrow.

SCHNEIDER: Very interesting and possibly a very long evening.

DOBBS: Bill Schneider.

Thank you very much, as always.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

DOBBS: Still ahead here, Calling the Winner. How the election debacle four years ago has changed the way news networks, CNN included, and news organizations plan to call this election. Our special report, Calling the Winner, is next.

And then, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan, Kerry adviser/"CROSSFIRE" co-host James Carville -- they join us with their thoughts on this final push of the 2004 presidential campaign.

All of that and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The controversy over the 2000 presidential election and the way in which the news media called and recalled the results in Florida has changed the way that the news media will report this election, I assure you. Tomorrow, caution will be the order of the day in newsrooms all across this country.

Peter Viles reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN RATHER, CBS ANCHOR: I'm so sorry to interrupt you. Mike, you know I wouldn't do this if it weren't big. Florida goes for Al Gore.

PETER JENNINGS, ABC ANCHOR: ABC News is now going to project that Florida goes to Mr. Bush.

PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Election Night 2000, a media meltdown.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.

RATHER: Florida comes out of the Gore column, back up in the air.

VILES: Election results were misreported.

TOM BROKAW, NBC ANCHOR: It ends with a victory for George W. Bush.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think the American people appreciate that, frankly.

VILES: Network executives called to Capitol Hill to explain.

Four years later, "caution" is the watch word in network newsrooms.

ANDREW KOHUT, PEW RESEARCH CENTER: Network presidents like to cover Congress. They don't want to appear before Congress. So I think there's going to be a great deal of caution and care taken, and everyone's going to be on edge, and it's going to be a higher priority on triple-checking that things are right rather than rush to be first.

VILES: CBS News is now bragging that it was last to call John Kerry the victor in the Wisconsin Democratic Primary. ABC News says it will not project a winner in a state if the margin in that state in tabulated votes is less than 1 percent.

LARRY NOBLE, CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS: I don't think any of the news organizations want a repeat of 2000 where they had to -- they called the election one way, then had to switch, and then by the end of the night had to say we don't know who won. VILES: The networks are cautious in part because on Election Night they will share information, the same exit polls, computer models to interpret those polls, the same vote counts gathered by 5,000 stringers for the Associated Press. Each network then uses its own statistical models, news gathering, standards and its own nerve to project winners.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VILES: It is worth reporting all of the vote tallies you'll see on election night, no matter which network you watch, come from a single source, the Associated Press. None of the networks will be counting the votes on their own -- Lou.

DOBBS: But carefully. Very carefully.

VILES: They'll be watching them carefully, but they'll all come from one place.

DOBBS: Peter Viles.

Thank you very much.

And to guide us through the evening here tomorrow and leading our coverage is CNN's Wolf Blitzer.

Wolf, good to have you here.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Lou.

DOBBS: A brand-new venue. And I know that your counsel will be a large part of what we're reporting tomorrow.

BLITZER: Forty-third and Broadway, an area you know well, Times Square. The NASDAQ MarketSite -- and a lot of your viewers especially, but all of our viewers -- they're familiar with what's inside the NASDAQ, all those huge number of video screens.

What we've done -- we've taken the technology of NASDAQ and incorporated it to be able to show our viewers literally the entire country wherever the races are at any one time, with dramatic graphics, dramatic video.

But, most important for the viewers, it will be viewer-friendly. People will get the information they want and they'll get it right away.

DOBBS: And with Wolf Blitzer leading the way, I know it will also be the best in journalism.

Looking forward to your reporting tomorrow as always.

BLITZER: And let me echo: We will be cautious.

DOBBS: Amen.

Wolf Blitzer.

Thank you.

That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. How concerned are you about another presidential election recount? Very, somewhat or not at all? Please cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the program.

Coming right up, one day to go. Former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, Kerry campaign adviser James Carville will join me.

And I'll be joined by the young generation as well, 40 million Americans who can make a difference in this election if they show up. Jane Fleming of the Young Democrats. Bob Nardo, former director of the Federation of College Republicans. They join us to tell us what's on the minds of those young people as they get ready to go to the polls.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Pat Buchanan is one of the most outspoken critics of the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq. He is the author of the book "Where the Right Went Wrong." I talked with him earlier and asked him if the right had not gone wrong, would these polls be so close?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAT BUCHANAN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I think the president of the United States would be winning this by 10 or 15 points. I think...

DOBBS: Ten or 15?

BUCHANAN: Oh, his trade policies are resulting in the outsourcing of all these jobs and the loss of manufacturing of the United States, which is why he's in trouble in Ohio and the industrial states. Secondly, if he had not gone to war in Iraq, I think this wouldn't even be an election.

DOBBS: The president, of course, would argue that he didn't have much of a choice, given the intelligence at that time. Given the situation that we do have -- and that is an extremely tight race between Senator Kerry and President Bush -- who do you think wins?

BUCHANAN: I still think the president is going to win. I look at the map, and Kerry really has to climb a high mountain. He's got to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan and two out of three of Minnesota and Wisconsin. He's started the election with the blue states of Al Gore which are only worth 260 electoral votes, and the red states are worth 278. So the president can afford to lose Ohio, for example, and come back in the upper Midwest and recapture it.

Kerry's got to win it all. The problem for the president is Florida. He has to have that.

DOBBS: What are his odds in Florida. I notice you didn't mention Florida until -- putting it forward as the condition he must meet.

BUCHANAN: I think the president looks good. In some polls, up significantly. In other polls, Kerry is there. But you hear about exit polls from Florida, the early voting, it might be tilting toward Kerry in the exit vote polls, and the voting down there is very, very heavy, even 24 hours before Election Day.

DOBBS: Both candidates have an opportunity, a very small window of opportunity, in which to do one more thing right and one more thing, perhaps, wrong. What do you, to this point, think that has been the smartest thing that Senator Kerry has done in this election?

BUCHANAN: I think Kerry prepared himself for the debates and worked and realized, had he not done that as well as he did in that first debate, Lou, I think he would have lost the election.

He had been swift-boated in August. Republican Convention extraordinarily effective. Kerry had been painted and been received by the American people as unacceptable, basically a guy who -- of questionable character and credibility.

And he presented himself very presidentially (ph) in that first debate, and the president had the worst debate of his life.

DOBBS: And the smartest thing that President Bush has done?

BUCHANAN: I think the fall strategy of the president, to put in peril the Kerry upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and go out there, leave Ohio undefended, let Kerry go in there and strengthen himself and force Kerry in the last couple weeks to go out and defend his base was very brilliant strategy.

DOBBS: And the Electoral College vote tomorrow?

BUCHANAN: I'm still tilting toward the president, close to 300. I think the president holds Ohio and Florida. I think he'll roll to a 300 electoral vote victory.

DOBBS: Pat Buchanan, thanks for being here.

BUCHANAN: Delighted, Lou. We'll see.

(LAUGHTER)

DOBBS: We'll see.

(END VIDEOTAPE) DOBBS: My next guest has a sharply different view from that of Pat Buchanan on this election and its outcome, James Carville, adviser to Senator Kerry's campaign and the co-host of "CROSSFIRE."

Jim, good to have you here.

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Well, Lou, you might say I have a sharply different view than Pat Buchanan on a lot of things. I understand Pat endorsed the president, right?

DOBBS: I'm sorry?

CARVILLE: He endorsed the president, Pat Buchanan has endorsed him.

DOBBS: I believe that that would be the case. Yes. The fact of the matter is this race is so close that some of the people who do this for a living for a very long time are saying they've never seen anything like it. What's your view?

CARVILLE: Well, it's no less close than the election was in 2000 going in. I actually think that it's not going to be particularly close. I think Kerry's going to win, and I'll tell you why. You have an incumbent at 48, heading into an energized electorate that you're going to have increased turnout. And the history of incumbents at winning that is non-existent.

DOBBS: The issue of turnout, we focused on it, everyone's focusing on it. The Republicans have for the first time an extensive ground war campaign under way. The Democrats, proven in this -- in ground wars. Who at this point do you think is going to be most successful?

CARVILLE: I think that the biggest motivator is -- and I'd say President Bush is the greatest civics teacher in the history of the United States. I think people are energized. I think some of the Republicans are energized too. And you no longer hear people say, my vote doesn't count. There were 105 million people that voted in the 2000 election. Everybody says the low is going to be 110,000, you hear estimates that go as high as -- I mean, 110 million, to 125 million. But I think people don't go vote because of a phone call. A few do, but not many. Or because they have these contacts. They go vote because they're motivated. And all these people out knocking on doors are motivated either for or against the president. This is the most polarizing figure that we've had in modern American political history.

DOBBS: Well, the fact of the matter is I haven't heard anyone in the last several months say that they're not going to vote, which is something I am accustomed to hearing.

CARVILLE: And you look at these early voting, every piece of anecdotal evidence I get of people waiting, I talked to someone today, waiting four hours, they vote absentee in Georgia, talked to a lady this morning three hours in Bexar County, which is in San Antonio, Texas. So it's going to be huge.

DOBBS: Let's talk about a couple of things. You heard Pat Buchanan say that he thinks President Bush will take Florida.

CARVILLE: I mean, we'll know tomorrow. I think -- obviously, I think Senator Kerry's going to win by 4 or 5 points. If he does, he takes all of that with him.

DOBBS: So you're looking for momentum.

CARVILLE: Yes, I do. And I pay attention to the national number, the state numbers always follow the national number. If what happens what I suspect happens, and he has a big win nationally, he's obviously going to carry Florida, Ohio, the upper Midwest, and everything will go with him.

DOBBS: When you say the national number, you're talking about the popular vote?

CARVILLE: The popular vote, yes.

DOBBS: That's interesting because so many of the gurus and savants are saying forget the national number, let's just take a look at these ad hoc swing states.

CARVILLE: The swing states always follow the national number. They did in 2000 to the tee. I mean, Gore won Florida in the intended vote by at least 25,000m, which would be consistent -- a little better than consistent with winning the popular vote by 540,000 that he did. I say watch the national number, the states will take care of themselves.

DOBBS: Let me ask you the same thing I asked Pat Buchanan. What's the smartest thing that President Bush has done in this campaign?

CARVILLE: They jumped on -- they had a good August. The convention was just OK. The Democratic Convention wasn't very good. The smartest thing they did I think to some extent was also the dumbest thing, is they really made resolve and inflexibility a part of the campaign, and I think people -- that's in the end going to be their undoing.

DOBBS: And besides bringing in Carville and Begala, what is the smartest thing Senator Kerry did?

CARVILLE: I agree with Pat, the debates. And I think that Bob Shrum is going to be the big winner in this, it's going to big night for Bob, and I'm glad for him.

DOBBS: You want to give us a margin?

CARVILLE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) 52-47-1 in the popular vote and the states will follow accordingly.

DOBBS: Jim Carville, good to see you as always. Paula Zahn will have much more ahead on this election eve, tonight hosting a town hall meeting in a critical state of Florida. It begins in just over an hour from now. Paula Zahn joins me now to tell us what's coming up -- Paula.

PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Lou. Thanks. Well, I join you from the Osceola County courthouse in Kissimmee, Florida, tonight. And shortly we're going to fill up this room with about 105 voters from this state. About a quarter of them -- boy, that's impressive, isn't it? An empty room. A quarter of them will be undecided, and they will actually be putting questions to representatives of the Bush and Kerry campaign. Senator Bob Graham, a former presidential candidate himself who has served three terms in the U.S. Senate, will represent the Kerry campaign. And then on the Republican side we'll be meeting with former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed. He is the Bush-Cheney campaign southeastern regional chairman.

It could be a pretty interesting debate, Lou. I've had an opportunity to talk with a couple of voters who really think that their vote might turn on something they hear from either campaign tonight. So join us for the debate.

DOBBS: Well, we will do that. And we know that you will fill up the room with fascinating people and...

ZAHN: They'd better come.

DOBBS: ... fascinating debate, discussion, and I suspect even a few conclusions. Paula Zahn tonight at 8:00 Eastern. Thank you, Paula.

Still ahead here tonight, an aggressive push to lure young Americans to those voting booths. Both parties saying it's critical to their candidate's success. I'll be talking with two of the young leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties next.

And then, the candidates touch down in a total of six battleground states on the eve of this election. We'll examine this final push of the campaigns. I'll be talking with three of the country's very best political journalists. All of that, a great deal more, still ahead here tonight. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: This year 70 percent of those 18 to 24 in this country, they've pledged to vote, according to a recent study by Harvard. Joining me tonight from Philadelphia is Jane Fleming. She's the executive director of the Young Democrats of America. From Manchester, New Hampshire is Bob Nardo, former executive director of the D.C. Federation of College Republicans. Jane, Bob, good to have you with us.

JANE FLEMING, EXEC. DIR. YOUNG DEMOCRATS OF AMERICA: Thanks for having us.

DOBBS: Jane, let me turn to the issues of how many young people are going to turn out to vote. What's your best estimate?

FLEMING: Young people are going to come out in record numbers. We are on the eve of a historic moment right now. The Young Democrats have been knocking on doors for the past six months in five swing states with our new project called the Young Voter Alliance. And we are going to get out there.

DOBBS: Bob Nardo, are the Republicans just going to sit on their hands?

BOB NARDO, FMR. DIR., D.C. FED. OF COLLEGE REPUBLICANS: Hi, Lou. It's nice to hear that the Democrats have a new voter project. The College Republicans have been turning out tens of thousands of students for decades. This year alone College Republicans recruited over 50,000 new volunteers on top of the couple hundred thousand members. And you know how that materializes? In two ways. First, it means 50 percent or more of young people today support Republican President Bush and Republican candidates. You wouldn't think that if you listened to, you know, the Ralph Nader crowd. Second of all, it results, you know, in turnout and activism. This last Saturday the Republican party and leadership in New Hampshire contacted 100,000 voters in one day, mostly with the help of college student volunteers.

DOBBS: Jane Fleming is shaking her head, Bob. Why is that?

FLEMING: I don't know where he gets his numbers because if you look at any national poll right now President Bush is behind Kerry for the youth vote. In any other age group there's just a 1 percent difference between Bush and Kerry. For the youth vote there is a 25 percent difference in favor of Kerry, my friend. So I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers.

NARDO: Yes, that's the problem when you use selective polls with small sample sizes. The Pittsburgh poll that came out yesterday, this week's "Newsweek" poll, we're seeing ties if not small leads for the president. The issue, though, isn't necessarily, you know, whether there's 1 percent on one side or the other. The issue is the fact that tens of thousands of college Republican volunteers are all across the country and we're seeing really massive record transformative turnout. And we're just kicking butt.

DOBBS: Well, eloquently put, bob. Let me say to both of you, I think the expression, "these guys are good" comes to mind. You're obviously fired up in favor of your respective candidates. Let me ask you each. Jane, if I may begin first with you again. What is the single most important issue for the 18 to 24 demographic?

FLEMING: The young Democrats are actually targeting 18 to 35- year-olds. And there's four issues -- the war in Iraq, jobs, the economy, and health care. Young people are the most uninsured group of any age group and we're tired of this. We're tired of poor leadership.

DOBBS: Bob Nardo?

NARDO: Well, that's why President Bush is providing optimistic leadership to America for a more secure future and a more hopeful one. The reason I say security is not just because the president wants to take the fight to the terrorists so they don't hit us here, which everyone knows about but because President Bush has a hopeful vision that we can create a democratic, peaceful Middle East, which will be the true solution to our long-term security. I think that speaks specifically to the optimism young people have of, you know, what we can do in this world. That's why President Bush is the true progressive candidate in this race.

DOBBS: On the eve of a presidential election it's easy to convey enthusiasm and passionate support and sometimes perhaps something less than civility, of which the older folks in this country have been accused, as you know, and rightly so. Is it your sense that the younger folks like you are more civil, are more willing to, once this election is held, to reach across the aisle, shake hands, and be more civil?

NARDO: I think so, Lou. And the reason is a lot of people want to portray young people as out of control or afraid are people in John Kerry's campaign who are running the scare tactic of saying that there's going to be a draft. Not only is it flatly true as the president and the military leadership will tell you, but what it says is that John Kerry thinks he can control young people by using scare tactics and...

FLEMING: Let's talk about scare tactics.

NARDO: His choice to underestimate us and think that we'll give in...

DOBBS: Jane?

FLEMING: Let's talk about scare tactics. Let's talk about scare tactics.

DOBBS: Jane, you get the last word.

FLEMING: Scare tactics are what the Republicans are doing down in Miami. A group of Republicans were posing as gay activists in Miami today in a conservative area. Why? Because they know that is an important issue and a divisive issue, and that's what Republicans continue to do. They divide rather than unite.

NARDO: Three million new voters we've registered this year, Jane. We've registered 3 million new voters this year. That's not a scare tactic. That's hope.

FLEMING: My friend, it doesn't matter about the registering. It's all about getting out the vote. And this is what you'll see on a whole bunch of young voter doors: Republicans do not disturb because we voted for Democrats up and down the ticket.

DOBBS: Jane Fleming, that is the last word that I promised you, and Bob Nardo, thank you both.

NARDO: Thank you, Lou. DOBBS: And we're going to be looking for some new role models in politics, I think. We admire your enthusiasm. We appreciate your time being here. We wish you both all the very best of luck tomorrow.

NARDO: Thank you.

FLEMING: Thanks, Lou.

A reminder now to vote in tonight's poll. How concerned are you about another presidential election recount? Very, somewhat, or not at all? Cast your vote at CNN.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.

Coming up next, the final hours of campaign 2004. Republicans and Democrats, very different tactics being employed to draw voters to the polls. We'll have that story, and I'll be joined by the three top political journalists in this country next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Republicans and Democrats trying to get out the vote. Republicans in Florida are reaching out to the Christian right, hoping to mobilize millions of voters who failed to show up in 2000. Democrats are investing hundreds of millions of dollars literally to mobilize their base in a few key states. Senior White House correspondent John King has the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): First Baptist Church, Jacksonville, Florida. A hymn and a special guest.

RALPH REED, SE REGION BUSH CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: I'm really not here today on behalf of anyone other than the Lord Jesus Christ.

KING: Ralph Reed takes a seat leaving the politics for a moment to the pastor. No endorsement but a mention of where the candidates stand on abortion and a reminder that power comes from participation.

REED: How many of you are going to vote Tuesday?

KING: There are lessons in every sermon and in every campaign. Evangelical Christians did not turn out in the numbers the Bush campaign anticipated four years ago and are a critical target now in what Republicans promise will be an unprecedented election day ground game.

REED: All right. Help us get the vote out.

KING: Reed is a critical player, a man who helped build the Christian Coalition into a major force in the 90s, charged now with keeping Florida in the Republican column.

REED: You guys voted yet?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, we did. REED: Good.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hello, I'm a volunteer calling on behalf of the Republican party.

KING: The Bush headquarters in Duval County is one small piece of the GOP turnout operation that now counts more than 1.4 million volunteers, three times as many as four years ago. For good reason.

REED: We allowed them to do a better job on the ground than we did. We allowed ourselves to get beat at what we're best at.

KING: Florida is critical and close. Reed tries to motivate weary volunteers with news from another battleground.

REED: The president is now leading by three in Ohio. And we're going to carry Ohio.

KING: Not if these people have anything to say about it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you very much for your time.

KING: It looks like a Kerry campaign office, but this is the Ohio headquarters of America Coming Together, a liberal organization taking the lead in turning out Democrats in many key states. Tom Lindenfeld says his two biggest targets, Pennsylvania and Ohio, are too close to call but thinks Democrats have a ground game advantage.

TOM LINDENFELD, AMERICA COMING TOGETHER: They talked about the fact they wanted to register 2.5 million new largely evangelical exurban Republican voters. We look at the voter rolls now, they don't exist, didn't happen.

KING: In this Columbus neighborhood, the message is not the problem.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get Bush out of office now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get out and vote, man.

KING: But turnout here is traditionally low. The details matter.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And the polls will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'll be there on November 2nd.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And remember to bring I.D.

KING: Resources are not a problem. America Coming Together had an initial budget of $12 million but has raised in the ballpark of $200 million, money for plenty of canvassers and computers and boxes and boxes of hand warmers in case the weather turns cold and success means the lines are long.

John King, CNN, Columbus, Ohio.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Joining me now, Roger Simon of "U.S. News & World Report" from Boston. From Washington, D.C., Karen Tumulty of "TIME" magazine. And from New York, Marcus Mabry of "Newsweek."

Good to have you all here. Marcus, let me start with you. Turnout, do you think it's going to be as high as nearly all of the experts now are suggesting?

MARCUS MABRY, "NEWSWEEK": I do. I think both sides are incredibly motivated, Lou, and I think we'll have record turnout.

DOBBS: Karen, have we got a sense of where this election is headed, are we back to dead heat, neck and neck, all of the cliches?

KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME": Absolutely. And I think that Roger and I, at least if we talk about my friend the last time we got together, Roger and I both thought that the Osama bin Laden tape was probably going to be enough to move at least a few voters. Well, you look at the weekend polling, and that does not seem to have happened. We really do seem to have two voting blocs here that are basically stuck in concrete and are going to go, it looks like, right up to the wire that way.

DOBBS: Roger, you believe the polls -- about the polls not being influenced by Osama bin Laden's tapes?

ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": No. I'll take what Karen says over polls any day. I don't care so much about what I say. It depends which polls you read. Clearly we are isolated on this. Most polls disagree with us. But there was an interesting NBC poll that said 24 percent of those polled said they were more likely to vote for George Bush because of the Osama bin Laden tape.

But I think turnout is going to trump that tape. Curtis Gans, who's non-partisan, said on CNN that the increase in turnout is something like 10 to 12 million. That's a tsunami. That's going to wipe out everything else. And I think that tends to favor John Kerry because the greatest motivator to get people out of their houses and to the polls is a desire for change.

DOBBS: A desire for change and therefore obviously, Roger, you believe that this would all be -- or much of it at least would be in Kerry's favor. Do you agree with that, Marcus?

MABRY: Absolutely. I think what we're going to see -- if we see amazing numbers tomorrow with the exit polling of young people, of people under 30, and of African-Americans, especially in Florida and Ohio, then that makes a big difference.

DOBBS: Is there some good reason for us to suspect -- you mentioned African-Americans, 92 percent of whom typically vote Democratic. But we're seeing strong polling numbers, including your poll, for President Bush against historical trends. Do you think that could have an influence even if there is an exceptionally high turnout of African-Americans?

MABRY: I think it can. What we're talking about are socially conservative, church-going folks. Those people who would support the president on some social issues will probably back him in numbers that they hadn't before. The president got in the single digits last time. So it doesn't take much to improve on that score. It may make a difference in a place like Ohio.

But the more African-Americans see Republican efforts to, as the Republicans say, make sure there's no voter registration fraud, the more African-Americans see that, the more they're going to be angry and feel like this is a voter suppression movement aimed at them. And that's not going to help them in Ohio.

DOBBS: That's also the tactic, the strategy of the Democratic Party to drive the interest. And so where does that leave us?

MABRY: I think that leaves us with people going to the polls in big numbers.

DOBBS: In other words, you think the strategy will work.

MABRY: Exactly. I think the Democratic strategy will work and the Republicans' won't.

DOBBS: Do you think the Republican strategy will work, Karen, with their 250,000 volunteers driving people to the polls?

TUMULTY: That is the big question mark in this election. The Democrats, as John King noted, have traditionally had an edge in this. The voter registration numbers seem to favor the Democrats. The early voting numbers in places like Florida, where one in seven voters has already voted, also seem to favor the Democrats.

But the Republican strategy, which is very heavily based in volunteers, really kicks into gear in this last 72 hours. And so we're really not going to know how well it is working until Wednesday morning, probably about 4:00 or 5:00 a.m.

DOBBS: 4:00 or 5:00 a.m., well, that brings up...

TUMULTY: That's optimistic.

DOBBS: If that's optimistic, I don't want to hear the pessimistic part. As we look at this poll, it occurs I think to all of us who've been watching these polls for some time now, as each of us opens our newspapers, our magazines, and watches television, we want to have a sense of where this election is headed. Now, I'm going to tell you, I've talked to a number of folks, whether they're in unions, whether they're in political life, from both parties, and I don't have from a single person I've talked with a sense of confidence that they know where this election is headed. Have any of you talked with anyone who has got this thing absolutely marked?

MABRY: I haven't talked to anyone, except for partisans, who think that they actually know where this is going to go, and I don't believe them when they say it.

DOBBS: Karen?

TUMULTY: I don't know. James Carville and Pat Buchanan both seem pretty sure of themselves on your program. It's really true. It's, you know, the partisans. It's just hard to figure out, you know, if they're really seeing something out there or if they're breathing their own fumes.

DOBBS: In the interest of -- how can I put this? Let's put it this way, I was talking with people who are not in the public eye, if that's a fair way to put that. Roger?

SIMON: I don't think anyone knows. I think the figures that make Republicans happy these days are the increased projections of evangelical Christians voting. This is the base for the Republican Party. And they are located in many, many places other than just Florida. The figure that depresses them is Bush's last Gallup approval rating, 48 percent. Matthew Dowd, the president's chief pollster, said the president is likely to get what he gets as his approval, 48 percent would mean the president loses.

DOBBS: We thank you very much. It has been weeks since I've given you this opportunity. Does any one of the three of you wish to predict the outcome of this election? Karen?

TUMULTY: Not me.

DOBBS: Marcus?

MABRY: No way.

DOBBS: Roger?

SIMON: The voters will win, Lou.

(LAUGHTER)

DOBBS: I sure hope you're right. Roger, thank you very much. Karen, Marcus, thanks. We'll see you tomorrow.

Still ahead here, the results of our poll tonight. We'll have the results of this poll straight-away and a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Our poll results now. Nearly three-quarters of you say you are very concerned about the possibility of another presidential election recount. Thanks for being with us. Please join us here tomorrow beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern as we begin CNN's coverage of "AMERICA VOTES 2004," two hours of comprehensive coverage.

For all of us here, good night from New York, "ANDERSON COOPER 360" next. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired November 1, 2004 - 18:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I see a great day coming for America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN K. KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is the most important election of our lives.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, one more day. We take a look at the latest and last polls. Our correspondents and analysts focus on the battleground states. We'll have complete coverage.

I'll talk with former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, who says President Bush will win a decisive victory.

I'll also be talking with Democratic strategist and "CROSSFIRE" host James Carville, who's equally confident that Senator Kerry will win.

Also tonight, voter registration up sharply. The pollsters expect new voters to have a major, perhaps decisive voice in this election.

And attorneys already fighting pre-election battles in Ohio. The sparring could be a warning of much bigger legal challenges around the country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DANIEL TOKAJI, OHIO STATE LAW PROFESSOR: We can expect to see whoever is on the losing side in the initial count to bring a lawsuit.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: And the race to call a winner election night. Network news organizations are determined to avoid a repeat of the 2000 election night fiasco. We'll have a special report.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Monday, November 1. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs. DOBBS: Good evening.

Twelve hours from now, millions of Americans will begin casting their ballots in what is expected to be one of the tightest presidential elections in years. President Bush and Senator Kerry are in a statistical dead heat.

Today, the candidates launched a final nonstop effort to mobilize their supporters and to win over the few remaining undecided voters.

In just moments, we'll have a report on the Kerry campaign. But, first, we're going to Dana Bash with President Bush's campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States and Mrs. Laura Bush!

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A dramatic arrival in the familiar trappings of the presidency, staged to set the incumbent apart from his challenger, staged to show confidence.

CURT SCHILLING, RED SOX: It sounds like we've got a few Red Sox fans out here, too.

(CHEERS)

SCHILLING: And it sounds like we have a few George Bush fans out here, too.

(CHEERS)

BASH: Then an introduction by Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, hero of John Kerry's hometown.

BUSH: There's nothing like an early morning rally in the great state of Ohio!

BASH: Ohio is the first in a seven-stop Bush sprint. He won here in 2000, but it's in jeopardy because of job loss, which he acknowledges.

BUSH: I know the economy of this state has been through a lot, but we are moving in the right direction.

BASH: The president's top aide boasts they'll win Ohio and then some.

KARL ROVE, BUSH STRATEGIST: We're ahead. We're going to win. We're going to win. We will win Florida and Ohio. We will take at least two or three or four states that were won by Gore in the last election.

BASH: After Ohio, four of those Gore blue states are on the itinerary -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico -- before going home to Texas.

Along the way, the president uncharacteristically seeks out reporters.

BUSH: I just want to assure you I've got the energy and the optimism and the enthusiasm to cross the line.

BASH: Public bravado, but some nervousness behind the scenes. Bush aides concede historically undecideds usually don't break for the incumbent.

Mr. Bush doesn't hold the majority in many states he needs to win. But the president is running on anti-terrorism credentials he thinks can help defy trends.

BUSH: I want to continue telling the people what I intend to do to protect them.

BASH: That, aides hope, will make undecideds think twice before switching horses. But the reality is, at this point, the president's already made his policy arguments, already torn into his opponent. All that's left for him is the final sales pitch.

BUSH: I ask you to come stand with me.

BASH (on camera): Now it's about the ground game, where Democrats traditionally have the upper hand. But Bush aides say they have 1.4 million volunteers. That's three times what they had four years ago.

But they also concede the Democrats' turnout operation is well funded and, therefore, could be hard to match.

Dana Bash, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Senator Kerry today called on voters to hold President Bush accountable and to set this country on a new path. Senator Kerry today made his final campaign swing across four critical battleground states. Frank Buckley reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KERRY: So are you ready to take this thing and win and finish it off and get the job done?

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator John Kerry fired up his supporters in Florida for one last time, the state where the 2000 election ended, where Kerry began his last full day of campaigning.

Next stop, Wisconsin, where Kerry donned a Boston Red Sox cap and rallied the base. In the rain in Milwaukee, Kerry asking the faithful to bring their friends to the polls, too. KERRY: I need you in these hours to go out and do the hard work, knock on those doors, make those phone calls, talk to friends, take people to the polls, help us change the direction of this great nation for the better.

BUCKLEY: Kerry's message on election eve: He is the man for the middle class.

KERRY: George Bush keeps choosing the wealthy, the powerful, the drug companies, the oil companies. I think the White House ought to be occupied by a champion for the middle class and those struggling to get in it.

BUCKLEY: The final day fly-around only one way the Kerry campaign got out the get-out-the-vote message. Online...

KERRY: We're going to put the people back in the driver's seat.

BUCKLEY: ... this video was mailed to Kerry supporters, who helped the campaign raise $80 million online.

As Kerry works some of the last rope lines of the campaign, his top advisers were confidently predicting victory.

(on camera): Those Kerry strategists saying they believe undecided voters and newly registered voters will break their way on Election Day. Kerry also putting his faith in a ground game of a million volunteers across the country.

Frank Buckley, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: One of the key factors in this election could well be the large increase in the number of people who've registered to vote. Seventy percent of the voting age population has registered. That's a 40-year high. But it leaves open the question: Will they vote?

Lisa Sylvester reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In battleground state Ohio, canvassers are going door to door to try to squeak out an extra vote for their respective candidates.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi. I'm Sandy, and I'm out walking and working for President George W. Bush, encouraging people to get out and vote.

SYLVESTER: Thousands of volunteers have descended on the swing states, working the phones, in search of that one truly undecided voter.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi. This is Claudia with... DAVE BECKWITH, RNC SPOKESMAN: Everything's ramped up by a factor of three or more. We've got more volunteers, more signs, more contacts, more phone calls. Everything is faster and bigger.

SYLVESTER: This year, 10 million more people are registered to vote than in the 2000 presidential race. In Florida, voter registration is up 8.2 percent; Pennsylvania, 5.1 percent; Iowa, 4.5 percent; West Virginia, 5.9 percent; and Ohio, 5 percent.

CURTIS GANS, COMMITTEE FOR THE STUDY OF THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE: Most people that you talk to say that this is the most important election in their lifetimes, you know, and I feel that that's true in terms of anything I've sensed, you know, and I've been around since 1937.

SYLVESTER: What matters most now is voter turnout. Young people in particular are being targeted with get-out-the-vote drives. In the last presidential race, a third of all 18- to 24-year-olds cast ballots.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you guys registered to vote?

SYLVESTER: This year, that number is expected to top 40 percent.

KAY MAXWELL, LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS: I think a lot of us were concerned after 2000 that we might see a decrease in registration and participation because of people being frustrated with the problems that occurred in 2000. So what's exciting is that we have seen just the opposite.

SYLVESTER: Higher voter turnout has typically worked in the Democrats' favor. But, this year, Republicans know they have to get out the vote to stay in the game.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER: The Committee for the Study of the American Electorate expects actual voter turnout to be 12 million to 15 million higher than in the 2000 presidential race, and those numbers are expected to be on par, if not higher, than turnout in the 1992 election -- Lou.

DOBBS: It looks like a lot of interest, to say the very least.

Lisa, thank you.

Lisa Sylvester.

Well, voters in 34 states will also decide dozens of ballot initiatives tomorrow on issues that range from gay marriage to illegal immigration. The results of those ballots could well have national implications.

Casey Wian has the report for us -- Casey.

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, ballot propositions are usually considered to be local matters. But national issues are taking over and some could affect the outcome of the presidential race.

Tomorrow, voters in 34 states will decide 163 ballot initiatives and referenda. California, as usual, leads with 16. Surprisingly, Rhode Island has the second most, 14.

In Ohio, a ban on gay marriage is the only initiative on the ballot. It could bring out large numbers of conservative voters and help President Bush in a critical swing state. Gay marriage bans are on the ballot in 11 states.

Eight states will decide health-care measures. California has eight of those, including a bond issue for stem cell research, tax hikes for mental health and emergency room care and an employer- provided health-care mandate.

Perhaps the most controversial initiative is in Arizona where Proposition 200 would require proof of citizenship for voter registration and prevent illegal aliens from receiving state welfare benefits. Even though most state lawmakers have come out against Proposition 200, it's still ahead in the polls -- Lou.

DOBBS: And that's what makes these referenda so important, giving voters a chance to initiate and to resolve these issues.

Thank you very much.

Casey Wian.

Well, still ahead here, why the Buckeye State could be the center of controversy in this election. Battles already underway tonight in Ohio. We'll have that special report for you.

And the race to the finish. Former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan predicts a decisive victory for President Bush. Democratic strategist James Carville -- well, he predicts a very different outcome, as you might expect. They'll both join me next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: A major development in Ohio that could effect voting in the critical battleground state. Two federal judges today ruled that the political parties cannot challenge the eligibility of voters at polling places. The Republicans quickly appealed the decisions.

Dan Lothian has the report from Columbus.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): In the key battleground state of Ohio with its 20 electoral votes up for grabs, an intense get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans and Democrats, even as attorneys for both parties wage a preelection battle in the courts.

TOKAJI: It's not surprising after Bush versus Gore that both parties would see the litigation strategy as being almost as important as the political strategy.

LOTHIAN; First, Democrats have so far succeeded in keeping partisan challengers searching for ineligible voters or fraud out of polling places. It's not what Republicans wanted, so they've appealed.

MARK WEAVER, RNC LEGAL COUNSEL: We know that the eyes of the nation are on Ohio, and everyone wants this to be a fair election on Tuesday.

JENNIFER PALMER, KERRY CAMPAIGN SPOKESWOMAN: It's always been our position that there should not be people challenging the right to vote at the polls on Election Day.

LOTHIAN: Democrats argued the presence of challengers would suppress the vote.

Another ruling means provisional ballots will only be counted if voters are in the right precinct. It's not what Democrats wanted.

And there have been other issues in the Buckeye State: challenges over some 35,000 new registrations -- that for now seems settled; and concerns over punch-card ballots -- 70 percent of Ohio voters will be using them. Remember what happened in Florida?

In the end, legal experts say none of this will really matter unless the final count is within the margin of litigation. In other words, a razor-thin result.

TOKAJI: If it's 1 percent or less, I'd say that we're clearly within the margin of litigation, and we can expect to see whoever is on the losing side in the initial count to bring a lawsuit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LOTHIAN: I just checked a few minutes ago, and still no decision yet on that challenge by Republicans.

Now one thing we do know, Lou, is that both Republicans and Democrats say that they have hundreds of lawyers here on the ground not only to deal with the current legal situation, but with whatever may come up after the election -- Lou.

DOBBS: Well, Dan, let's just hope very little comes up.

Thank you very much.

Dan Lothian.

With such a tight race on the eve of this election, we turn now to our Senior Political Analyst Bill,Schneider.

Bill, good to have you here.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: My pleasure. DOBBS: One of the things that a lot of people are looking at are these electoral maps, trying to judge, obviously, what's going to happen, and there's a wide variety of views. I was wondering if you could give us just your representation of what some of the major news organizations are doing.

SCHNEIDER: OK. Let's take a look because the national polls don't tell you much. It's the electoral vote that matters. Three major news organizations have come out with their electoral maps.

Let's take a look at this one from "The New York Times." This is their estimate of the electoral vote tomorrow in the election. Two hundred and twenty-seven states -- those are the red states -- they are -- 227 electoral votes in those red states for George Bush.

They give Kerry 242 electoral votes in those blue states, which you see are concentrated on the West Coast and in the Northeast, and 69 electoral votes, they claim -- those are the yellow states -- are still up for grabs.

So they give Kerry a slight edge. How many does it take to win? Two hundred seventy. So the answer is neither of these guys has 270. It all depends on those tossup states.

Now compare that with "The Washington Post" electoral map. What's the figure for "The Washington Post"? The answer is Bush, 227, exactly the same, but Kerry 232, instead of 242, with 79 up for grabs, instead of 69.

The sharp-eyed among you -- I assume that includes you, Lou -- will know what the difference is between "The New York Times" map and "The Washington Post" map, and the answer is Minnesota. Minnesota, in this case, as you can see, is a yellow state.

"The Washington Post" calls it a tossup state. "The New York Times" put it in the Kerry category. But, otherwise, very similar. Neither candidate getting 270.

And finally,"USA Today" has an electoral map in which they give Bush a very similar number of votes, 226 in the red states, but Kerry's vote total is noticeably lower. It's down to 181 because "USA Today" puts a lot more states in the tossup category, 131 electoral votes in the tossup category, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

So they see a lot more tossups, and nobody has a winner.

DOBBS: It's fascinating and illustrative. From about 80 -- what was it, about 70-some-odd swing state electoral votes to 131 in the "USA Today" example, Bill? What are the critical swing states as you see it right now?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I've looked at the polls, which is why I'm a little addled right now, because I've looked at the polls in all the states, and there are eight states that, as far as I can tell, you just can't call. These states either are all very close polls or the polls are a little bit for Bush, a little bit for Kerry, they're kind of all over the place.

Three of them are big states -- Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. All three of those states have at least 20 electoral votes. Three of them are middle-sized -- rather, two of them are middle sized states, Wisconsin and Iowa, Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes, Iowa with seven.

And then there are three little states, not by geography, but by population. New Hampshire up in the corner there -- that has four electoral votes, New Mexico has five, and, if you look way over in the left-hand corner, those islands out there, that's Hawaii. Whoever dreamed Hawaii would be a tossup state?

DOBBS: And the partisans, Bill, as you're going through this, are thinking to themselves which way this is going to -- and they're looking for the advantage, obviously, for their candidate. But is it instructive that we see four votes in New Hampshire, four in Hawaii, both now in your battleground states?

SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, that's right. It is instructive. I mean, Hawaii only votes Republican when there's a Republican landslide, like for Nixon in '72 and for Reagan in '84. What's going on there? We don't know. But Dick Cheney was there the other day.

DOBBS: And Vice President Gore as well.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, yes.

DOBBS: So this is...

SCHNEIDER: This is normally a very Democratic state. I mean, if Hawaii votes Republican, it should be a Republican landslide, but there's no indication of that anywhere else.

DOBBS: I hear you saying it's going to be a very interesting evening tomorrow.

SCHNEIDER: Very interesting and possibly a very long evening.

DOBBS: Bill Schneider.

Thank you very much, as always.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

DOBBS: Still ahead here, Calling the Winner. How the election debacle four years ago has changed the way news networks, CNN included, and news organizations plan to call this election. Our special report, Calling the Winner, is next.

And then, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan, Kerry adviser/"CROSSFIRE" co-host James Carville -- they join us with their thoughts on this final push of the 2004 presidential campaign.

All of that and a great deal more still ahead here tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The controversy over the 2000 presidential election and the way in which the news media called and recalled the results in Florida has changed the way that the news media will report this election, I assure you. Tomorrow, caution will be the order of the day in newsrooms all across this country.

Peter Viles reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN RATHER, CBS ANCHOR: I'm so sorry to interrupt you. Mike, you know I wouldn't do this if it weren't big. Florida goes for Al Gore.

PETER JENNINGS, ABC ANCHOR: ABC News is now going to project that Florida goes to Mr. Bush.

PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Election Night 2000, a media meltdown.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.

RATHER: Florida comes out of the Gore column, back up in the air.

VILES: Election results were misreported.

TOM BROKAW, NBC ANCHOR: It ends with a victory for George W. Bush.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think the American people appreciate that, frankly.

VILES: Network executives called to Capitol Hill to explain.

Four years later, "caution" is the watch word in network newsrooms.

ANDREW KOHUT, PEW RESEARCH CENTER: Network presidents like to cover Congress. They don't want to appear before Congress. So I think there's going to be a great deal of caution and care taken, and everyone's going to be on edge, and it's going to be a higher priority on triple-checking that things are right rather than rush to be first.

VILES: CBS News is now bragging that it was last to call John Kerry the victor in the Wisconsin Democratic Primary. ABC News says it will not project a winner in a state if the margin in that state in tabulated votes is less than 1 percent.

LARRY NOBLE, CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS: I don't think any of the news organizations want a repeat of 2000 where they had to -- they called the election one way, then had to switch, and then by the end of the night had to say we don't know who won. VILES: The networks are cautious in part because on Election Night they will share information, the same exit polls, computer models to interpret those polls, the same vote counts gathered by 5,000 stringers for the Associated Press. Each network then uses its own statistical models, news gathering, standards and its own nerve to project winners.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VILES: It is worth reporting all of the vote tallies you'll see on election night, no matter which network you watch, come from a single source, the Associated Press. None of the networks will be counting the votes on their own -- Lou.

DOBBS: But carefully. Very carefully.

VILES: They'll be watching them carefully, but they'll all come from one place.

DOBBS: Peter Viles.

Thank you very much.

And to guide us through the evening here tomorrow and leading our coverage is CNN's Wolf Blitzer.

Wolf, good to have you here.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Lou.

DOBBS: A brand-new venue. And I know that your counsel will be a large part of what we're reporting tomorrow.

BLITZER: Forty-third and Broadway, an area you know well, Times Square. The NASDAQ MarketSite -- and a lot of your viewers especially, but all of our viewers -- they're familiar with what's inside the NASDAQ, all those huge number of video screens.

What we've done -- we've taken the technology of NASDAQ and incorporated it to be able to show our viewers literally the entire country wherever the races are at any one time, with dramatic graphics, dramatic video.

But, most important for the viewers, it will be viewer-friendly. People will get the information they want and they'll get it right away.

DOBBS: And with Wolf Blitzer leading the way, I know it will also be the best in journalism.

Looking forward to your reporting tomorrow as always.

BLITZER: And let me echo: We will be cautious.

DOBBS: Amen.

Wolf Blitzer.

Thank you.

That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. How concerned are you about another presidential election recount? Very, somewhat or not at all? Please cast your vote at cnn.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the program.

Coming right up, one day to go. Former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, Kerry campaign adviser James Carville will join me.

And I'll be joined by the young generation as well, 40 million Americans who can make a difference in this election if they show up. Jane Fleming of the Young Democrats. Bob Nardo, former director of the Federation of College Republicans. They join us to tell us what's on the minds of those young people as they get ready to go to the polls.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Pat Buchanan is one of the most outspoken critics of the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq. He is the author of the book "Where the Right Went Wrong." I talked with him earlier and asked him if the right had not gone wrong, would these polls be so close?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAT BUCHANAN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I think the president of the United States would be winning this by 10 or 15 points. I think...

DOBBS: Ten or 15?

BUCHANAN: Oh, his trade policies are resulting in the outsourcing of all these jobs and the loss of manufacturing of the United States, which is why he's in trouble in Ohio and the industrial states. Secondly, if he had not gone to war in Iraq, I think this wouldn't even be an election.

DOBBS: The president, of course, would argue that he didn't have much of a choice, given the intelligence at that time. Given the situation that we do have -- and that is an extremely tight race between Senator Kerry and President Bush -- who do you think wins?

BUCHANAN: I still think the president is going to win. I look at the map, and Kerry really has to climb a high mountain. He's got to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan and two out of three of Minnesota and Wisconsin. He's started the election with the blue states of Al Gore which are only worth 260 electoral votes, and the red states are worth 278. So the president can afford to lose Ohio, for example, and come back in the upper Midwest and recapture it.

Kerry's got to win it all. The problem for the president is Florida. He has to have that.

DOBBS: What are his odds in Florida. I notice you didn't mention Florida until -- putting it forward as the condition he must meet.

BUCHANAN: I think the president looks good. In some polls, up significantly. In other polls, Kerry is there. But you hear about exit polls from Florida, the early voting, it might be tilting toward Kerry in the exit vote polls, and the voting down there is very, very heavy, even 24 hours before Election Day.

DOBBS: Both candidates have an opportunity, a very small window of opportunity, in which to do one more thing right and one more thing, perhaps, wrong. What do you, to this point, think that has been the smartest thing that Senator Kerry has done in this election?

BUCHANAN: I think Kerry prepared himself for the debates and worked and realized, had he not done that as well as he did in that first debate, Lou, I think he would have lost the election.

He had been swift-boated in August. Republican Convention extraordinarily effective. Kerry had been painted and been received by the American people as unacceptable, basically a guy who -- of questionable character and credibility.

And he presented himself very presidentially (ph) in that first debate, and the president had the worst debate of his life.

DOBBS: And the smartest thing that President Bush has done?

BUCHANAN: I think the fall strategy of the president, to put in peril the Kerry upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and go out there, leave Ohio undefended, let Kerry go in there and strengthen himself and force Kerry in the last couple weeks to go out and defend his base was very brilliant strategy.

DOBBS: And the Electoral College vote tomorrow?

BUCHANAN: I'm still tilting toward the president, close to 300. I think the president holds Ohio and Florida. I think he'll roll to a 300 electoral vote victory.

DOBBS: Pat Buchanan, thanks for being here.

BUCHANAN: Delighted, Lou. We'll see.

(LAUGHTER)

DOBBS: We'll see.

(END VIDEOTAPE) DOBBS: My next guest has a sharply different view from that of Pat Buchanan on this election and its outcome, James Carville, adviser to Senator Kerry's campaign and the co-host of "CROSSFIRE."

Jim, good to have you here.

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Well, Lou, you might say I have a sharply different view than Pat Buchanan on a lot of things. I understand Pat endorsed the president, right?

DOBBS: I'm sorry?

CARVILLE: He endorsed the president, Pat Buchanan has endorsed him.

DOBBS: I believe that that would be the case. Yes. The fact of the matter is this race is so close that some of the people who do this for a living for a very long time are saying they've never seen anything like it. What's your view?

CARVILLE: Well, it's no less close than the election was in 2000 going in. I actually think that it's not going to be particularly close. I think Kerry's going to win, and I'll tell you why. You have an incumbent at 48, heading into an energized electorate that you're going to have increased turnout. And the history of incumbents at winning that is non-existent.

DOBBS: The issue of turnout, we focused on it, everyone's focusing on it. The Republicans have for the first time an extensive ground war campaign under way. The Democrats, proven in this -- in ground wars. Who at this point do you think is going to be most successful?

CARVILLE: I think that the biggest motivator is -- and I'd say President Bush is the greatest civics teacher in the history of the United States. I think people are energized. I think some of the Republicans are energized too. And you no longer hear people say, my vote doesn't count. There were 105 million people that voted in the 2000 election. Everybody says the low is going to be 110,000, you hear estimates that go as high as -- I mean, 110 million, to 125 million. But I think people don't go vote because of a phone call. A few do, but not many. Or because they have these contacts. They go vote because they're motivated. And all these people out knocking on doors are motivated either for or against the president. This is the most polarizing figure that we've had in modern American political history.

DOBBS: Well, the fact of the matter is I haven't heard anyone in the last several months say that they're not going to vote, which is something I am accustomed to hearing.

CARVILLE: And you look at these early voting, every piece of anecdotal evidence I get of people waiting, I talked to someone today, waiting four hours, they vote absentee in Georgia, talked to a lady this morning three hours in Bexar County, which is in San Antonio, Texas. So it's going to be huge.

DOBBS: Let's talk about a couple of things. You heard Pat Buchanan say that he thinks President Bush will take Florida.

CARVILLE: I mean, we'll know tomorrow. I think -- obviously, I think Senator Kerry's going to win by 4 or 5 points. If he does, he takes all of that with him.

DOBBS: So you're looking for momentum.

CARVILLE: Yes, I do. And I pay attention to the national number, the state numbers always follow the national number. If what happens what I suspect happens, and he has a big win nationally, he's obviously going to carry Florida, Ohio, the upper Midwest, and everything will go with him.

DOBBS: When you say the national number, you're talking about the popular vote?

CARVILLE: The popular vote, yes.

DOBBS: That's interesting because so many of the gurus and savants are saying forget the national number, let's just take a look at these ad hoc swing states.

CARVILLE: The swing states always follow the national number. They did in 2000 to the tee. I mean, Gore won Florida in the intended vote by at least 25,000m, which would be consistent -- a little better than consistent with winning the popular vote by 540,000 that he did. I say watch the national number, the states will take care of themselves.

DOBBS: Let me ask you the same thing I asked Pat Buchanan. What's the smartest thing that President Bush has done in this campaign?

CARVILLE: They jumped on -- they had a good August. The convention was just OK. The Democratic Convention wasn't very good. The smartest thing they did I think to some extent was also the dumbest thing, is they really made resolve and inflexibility a part of the campaign, and I think people -- that's in the end going to be their undoing.

DOBBS: And besides bringing in Carville and Begala, what is the smartest thing Senator Kerry did?

CARVILLE: I agree with Pat, the debates. And I think that Bob Shrum is going to be the big winner in this, it's going to big night for Bob, and I'm glad for him.

DOBBS: You want to give us a margin?

CARVILLE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) 52-47-1 in the popular vote and the states will follow accordingly.

DOBBS: Jim Carville, good to see you as always. Paula Zahn will have much more ahead on this election eve, tonight hosting a town hall meeting in a critical state of Florida. It begins in just over an hour from now. Paula Zahn joins me now to tell us what's coming up -- Paula.

PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Lou. Thanks. Well, I join you from the Osceola County courthouse in Kissimmee, Florida, tonight. And shortly we're going to fill up this room with about 105 voters from this state. About a quarter of them -- boy, that's impressive, isn't it? An empty room. A quarter of them will be undecided, and they will actually be putting questions to representatives of the Bush and Kerry campaign. Senator Bob Graham, a former presidential candidate himself who has served three terms in the U.S. Senate, will represent the Kerry campaign. And then on the Republican side we'll be meeting with former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed. He is the Bush-Cheney campaign southeastern regional chairman.

It could be a pretty interesting debate, Lou. I've had an opportunity to talk with a couple of voters who really think that their vote might turn on something they hear from either campaign tonight. So join us for the debate.

DOBBS: Well, we will do that. And we know that you will fill up the room with fascinating people and...

ZAHN: They'd better come.

DOBBS: ... fascinating debate, discussion, and I suspect even a few conclusions. Paula Zahn tonight at 8:00 Eastern. Thank you, Paula.

Still ahead here tonight, an aggressive push to lure young Americans to those voting booths. Both parties saying it's critical to their candidate's success. I'll be talking with two of the young leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties next.

And then, the candidates touch down in a total of six battleground states on the eve of this election. We'll examine this final push of the campaigns. I'll be talking with three of the country's very best political journalists. All of that, a great deal more, still ahead here tonight. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: This year 70 percent of those 18 to 24 in this country, they've pledged to vote, according to a recent study by Harvard. Joining me tonight from Philadelphia is Jane Fleming. She's the executive director of the Young Democrats of America. From Manchester, New Hampshire is Bob Nardo, former executive director of the D.C. Federation of College Republicans. Jane, Bob, good to have you with us.

JANE FLEMING, EXEC. DIR. YOUNG DEMOCRATS OF AMERICA: Thanks for having us.

DOBBS: Jane, let me turn to the issues of how many young people are going to turn out to vote. What's your best estimate?

FLEMING: Young people are going to come out in record numbers. We are on the eve of a historic moment right now. The Young Democrats have been knocking on doors for the past six months in five swing states with our new project called the Young Voter Alliance. And we are going to get out there.

DOBBS: Bob Nardo, are the Republicans just going to sit on their hands?

BOB NARDO, FMR. DIR., D.C. FED. OF COLLEGE REPUBLICANS: Hi, Lou. It's nice to hear that the Democrats have a new voter project. The College Republicans have been turning out tens of thousands of students for decades. This year alone College Republicans recruited over 50,000 new volunteers on top of the couple hundred thousand members. And you know how that materializes? In two ways. First, it means 50 percent or more of young people today support Republican President Bush and Republican candidates. You wouldn't think that if you listened to, you know, the Ralph Nader crowd. Second of all, it results, you know, in turnout and activism. This last Saturday the Republican party and leadership in New Hampshire contacted 100,000 voters in one day, mostly with the help of college student volunteers.

DOBBS: Jane Fleming is shaking her head, Bob. Why is that?

FLEMING: I don't know where he gets his numbers because if you look at any national poll right now President Bush is behind Kerry for the youth vote. In any other age group there's just a 1 percent difference between Bush and Kerry. For the youth vote there is a 25 percent difference in favor of Kerry, my friend. So I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers.

NARDO: Yes, that's the problem when you use selective polls with small sample sizes. The Pittsburgh poll that came out yesterday, this week's "Newsweek" poll, we're seeing ties if not small leads for the president. The issue, though, isn't necessarily, you know, whether there's 1 percent on one side or the other. The issue is the fact that tens of thousands of college Republican volunteers are all across the country and we're seeing really massive record transformative turnout. And we're just kicking butt.

DOBBS: Well, eloquently put, bob. Let me say to both of you, I think the expression, "these guys are good" comes to mind. You're obviously fired up in favor of your respective candidates. Let me ask you each. Jane, if I may begin first with you again. What is the single most important issue for the 18 to 24 demographic?

FLEMING: The young Democrats are actually targeting 18 to 35- year-olds. And there's four issues -- the war in Iraq, jobs, the economy, and health care. Young people are the most uninsured group of any age group and we're tired of this. We're tired of poor leadership.

DOBBS: Bob Nardo?

NARDO: Well, that's why President Bush is providing optimistic leadership to America for a more secure future and a more hopeful one. The reason I say security is not just because the president wants to take the fight to the terrorists so they don't hit us here, which everyone knows about but because President Bush has a hopeful vision that we can create a democratic, peaceful Middle East, which will be the true solution to our long-term security. I think that speaks specifically to the optimism young people have of, you know, what we can do in this world. That's why President Bush is the true progressive candidate in this race.

DOBBS: On the eve of a presidential election it's easy to convey enthusiasm and passionate support and sometimes perhaps something less than civility, of which the older folks in this country have been accused, as you know, and rightly so. Is it your sense that the younger folks like you are more civil, are more willing to, once this election is held, to reach across the aisle, shake hands, and be more civil?

NARDO: I think so, Lou. And the reason is a lot of people want to portray young people as out of control or afraid are people in John Kerry's campaign who are running the scare tactic of saying that there's going to be a draft. Not only is it flatly true as the president and the military leadership will tell you, but what it says is that John Kerry thinks he can control young people by using scare tactics and...

FLEMING: Let's talk about scare tactics.

NARDO: His choice to underestimate us and think that we'll give in...

DOBBS: Jane?

FLEMING: Let's talk about scare tactics. Let's talk about scare tactics.

DOBBS: Jane, you get the last word.

FLEMING: Scare tactics are what the Republicans are doing down in Miami. A group of Republicans were posing as gay activists in Miami today in a conservative area. Why? Because they know that is an important issue and a divisive issue, and that's what Republicans continue to do. They divide rather than unite.

NARDO: Three million new voters we've registered this year, Jane. We've registered 3 million new voters this year. That's not a scare tactic. That's hope.

FLEMING: My friend, it doesn't matter about the registering. It's all about getting out the vote. And this is what you'll see on a whole bunch of young voter doors: Republicans do not disturb because we voted for Democrats up and down the ticket.

DOBBS: Jane Fleming, that is the last word that I promised you, and Bob Nardo, thank you both.

NARDO: Thank you, Lou. DOBBS: And we're going to be looking for some new role models in politics, I think. We admire your enthusiasm. We appreciate your time being here. We wish you both all the very best of luck tomorrow.

NARDO: Thank you.

FLEMING: Thanks, Lou.

A reminder now to vote in tonight's poll. How concerned are you about another presidential election recount? Very, somewhat, or not at all? Cast your vote at CNN.com/lou. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.

Coming up next, the final hours of campaign 2004. Republicans and Democrats, very different tactics being employed to draw voters to the polls. We'll have that story, and I'll be joined by the three top political journalists in this country next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Republicans and Democrats trying to get out the vote. Republicans in Florida are reaching out to the Christian right, hoping to mobilize millions of voters who failed to show up in 2000. Democrats are investing hundreds of millions of dollars literally to mobilize their base in a few key states. Senior White House correspondent John King has the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): First Baptist Church, Jacksonville, Florida. A hymn and a special guest.

RALPH REED, SE REGION BUSH CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: I'm really not here today on behalf of anyone other than the Lord Jesus Christ.

KING: Ralph Reed takes a seat leaving the politics for a moment to the pastor. No endorsement but a mention of where the candidates stand on abortion and a reminder that power comes from participation.

REED: How many of you are going to vote Tuesday?

KING: There are lessons in every sermon and in every campaign. Evangelical Christians did not turn out in the numbers the Bush campaign anticipated four years ago and are a critical target now in what Republicans promise will be an unprecedented election day ground game.

REED: All right. Help us get the vote out.

KING: Reed is a critical player, a man who helped build the Christian Coalition into a major force in the 90s, charged now with keeping Florida in the Republican column.

REED: You guys voted yet?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, we did. REED: Good.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hello, I'm a volunteer calling on behalf of the Republican party.

KING: The Bush headquarters in Duval County is one small piece of the GOP turnout operation that now counts more than 1.4 million volunteers, three times as many as four years ago. For good reason.

REED: We allowed them to do a better job on the ground than we did. We allowed ourselves to get beat at what we're best at.

KING: Florida is critical and close. Reed tries to motivate weary volunteers with news from another battleground.

REED: The president is now leading by three in Ohio. And we're going to carry Ohio.

KING: Not if these people have anything to say about it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you very much for your time.

KING: It looks like a Kerry campaign office, but this is the Ohio headquarters of America Coming Together, a liberal organization taking the lead in turning out Democrats in many key states. Tom Lindenfeld says his two biggest targets, Pennsylvania and Ohio, are too close to call but thinks Democrats have a ground game advantage.

TOM LINDENFELD, AMERICA COMING TOGETHER: They talked about the fact they wanted to register 2.5 million new largely evangelical exurban Republican voters. We look at the voter rolls now, they don't exist, didn't happen.

KING: In this Columbus neighborhood, the message is not the problem.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get Bush out of office now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get out and vote, man.

KING: But turnout here is traditionally low. The details matter.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And the polls will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'll be there on November 2nd.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And remember to bring I.D.

KING: Resources are not a problem. America Coming Together had an initial budget of $12 million but has raised in the ballpark of $200 million, money for plenty of canvassers and computers and boxes and boxes of hand warmers in case the weather turns cold and success means the lines are long.

John King, CNN, Columbus, Ohio.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Joining me now, Roger Simon of "U.S. News & World Report" from Boston. From Washington, D.C., Karen Tumulty of "TIME" magazine. And from New York, Marcus Mabry of "Newsweek."

Good to have you all here. Marcus, let me start with you. Turnout, do you think it's going to be as high as nearly all of the experts now are suggesting?

MARCUS MABRY, "NEWSWEEK": I do. I think both sides are incredibly motivated, Lou, and I think we'll have record turnout.

DOBBS: Karen, have we got a sense of where this election is headed, are we back to dead heat, neck and neck, all of the cliches?

KAREN TUMULTY, "TIME": Absolutely. And I think that Roger and I, at least if we talk about my friend the last time we got together, Roger and I both thought that the Osama bin Laden tape was probably going to be enough to move at least a few voters. Well, you look at the weekend polling, and that does not seem to have happened. We really do seem to have two voting blocs here that are basically stuck in concrete and are going to go, it looks like, right up to the wire that way.

DOBBS: Roger, you believe the polls -- about the polls not being influenced by Osama bin Laden's tapes?

ROGER SIMON, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": No. I'll take what Karen says over polls any day. I don't care so much about what I say. It depends which polls you read. Clearly we are isolated on this. Most polls disagree with us. But there was an interesting NBC poll that said 24 percent of those polled said they were more likely to vote for George Bush because of the Osama bin Laden tape.

But I think turnout is going to trump that tape. Curtis Gans, who's non-partisan, said on CNN that the increase in turnout is something like 10 to 12 million. That's a tsunami. That's going to wipe out everything else. And I think that tends to favor John Kerry because the greatest motivator to get people out of their houses and to the polls is a desire for change.

DOBBS: A desire for change and therefore obviously, Roger, you believe that this would all be -- or much of it at least would be in Kerry's favor. Do you agree with that, Marcus?

MABRY: Absolutely. I think what we're going to see -- if we see amazing numbers tomorrow with the exit polling of young people, of people under 30, and of African-Americans, especially in Florida and Ohio, then that makes a big difference.

DOBBS: Is there some good reason for us to suspect -- you mentioned African-Americans, 92 percent of whom typically vote Democratic. But we're seeing strong polling numbers, including your poll, for President Bush against historical trends. Do you think that could have an influence even if there is an exceptionally high turnout of African-Americans?

MABRY: I think it can. What we're talking about are socially conservative, church-going folks. Those people who would support the president on some social issues will probably back him in numbers that they hadn't before. The president got in the single digits last time. So it doesn't take much to improve on that score. It may make a difference in a place like Ohio.

But the more African-Americans see Republican efforts to, as the Republicans say, make sure there's no voter registration fraud, the more African-Americans see that, the more they're going to be angry and feel like this is a voter suppression movement aimed at them. And that's not going to help them in Ohio.

DOBBS: That's also the tactic, the strategy of the Democratic Party to drive the interest. And so where does that leave us?

MABRY: I think that leaves us with people going to the polls in big numbers.

DOBBS: In other words, you think the strategy will work.

MABRY: Exactly. I think the Democratic strategy will work and the Republicans' won't.

DOBBS: Do you think the Republican strategy will work, Karen, with their 250,000 volunteers driving people to the polls?

TUMULTY: That is the big question mark in this election. The Democrats, as John King noted, have traditionally had an edge in this. The voter registration numbers seem to favor the Democrats. The early voting numbers in places like Florida, where one in seven voters has already voted, also seem to favor the Democrats.

But the Republican strategy, which is very heavily based in volunteers, really kicks into gear in this last 72 hours. And so we're really not going to know how well it is working until Wednesday morning, probably about 4:00 or 5:00 a.m.

DOBBS: 4:00 or 5:00 a.m., well, that brings up...

TUMULTY: That's optimistic.

DOBBS: If that's optimistic, I don't want to hear the pessimistic part. As we look at this poll, it occurs I think to all of us who've been watching these polls for some time now, as each of us opens our newspapers, our magazines, and watches television, we want to have a sense of where this election is headed. Now, I'm going to tell you, I've talked to a number of folks, whether they're in unions, whether they're in political life, from both parties, and I don't have from a single person I've talked with a sense of confidence that they know where this election is headed. Have any of you talked with anyone who has got this thing absolutely marked?

MABRY: I haven't talked to anyone, except for partisans, who think that they actually know where this is going to go, and I don't believe them when they say it.

DOBBS: Karen?

TUMULTY: I don't know. James Carville and Pat Buchanan both seem pretty sure of themselves on your program. It's really true. It's, you know, the partisans. It's just hard to figure out, you know, if they're really seeing something out there or if they're breathing their own fumes.

DOBBS: In the interest of -- how can I put this? Let's put it this way, I was talking with people who are not in the public eye, if that's a fair way to put that. Roger?

SIMON: I don't think anyone knows. I think the figures that make Republicans happy these days are the increased projections of evangelical Christians voting. This is the base for the Republican Party. And they are located in many, many places other than just Florida. The figure that depresses them is Bush's last Gallup approval rating, 48 percent. Matthew Dowd, the president's chief pollster, said the president is likely to get what he gets as his approval, 48 percent would mean the president loses.

DOBBS: We thank you very much. It has been weeks since I've given you this opportunity. Does any one of the three of you wish to predict the outcome of this election? Karen?

TUMULTY: Not me.

DOBBS: Marcus?

MABRY: No way.

DOBBS: Roger?

SIMON: The voters will win, Lou.

(LAUGHTER)

DOBBS: I sure hope you're right. Roger, thank you very much. Karen, Marcus, thanks. We'll see you tomorrow.

Still ahead here, the results of our poll tonight. We'll have the results of this poll straight-away and a preview of what's ahead tomorrow. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Our poll results now. Nearly three-quarters of you say you are very concerned about the possibility of another presidential election recount. Thanks for being with us. Please join us here tomorrow beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern as we begin CNN's coverage of "AMERICA VOTES 2004," two hours of comprehensive coverage.

For all of us here, good night from New York, "ANDERSON COOPER 360" next. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com