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American Morning
Final Day of Presidential Campaign; Closing Arguments Set to Begin in Scott Peterson Trial
Aired November 01, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The safety and prosperity of America are on the ballot. Hopefully this election comes down to who can you trust?
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This great nation of ours needs leadership that truly unites us as one America and brings people together.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, then there was one. The final day of this campaign where candidates making the final pitch to voters. On the eve of the election, the last look at the polls today, it is a very tight race. The swing states play very much now a determining factor. In the Middle East already, a suicide bomber attacking in Israel, while there is new word on the health of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
And prosecutors try to slam the door on Scott Peterson, closing arguments now set to begin on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. Welcome everybody, just one day left before the election. The race, of course, extremely close. We've got new poll results to take you through this morning, both nationally and in the key battleground states. We're going to go through those numbers. Also we'll take a look at where the candidates are going today, as they do everything possible to try to nail down the election.
HEMMER: And the spin continues. We'll talk to both campaigns this morning in a moment, Marc Racicot for the president, General Wesley Clark for the Kerry campaign. What do they think now? Each side saying they have good reason to be optimistic a day before the vote. We'll find out why in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: Good morning, Mr. Cafferty.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad. We're going to take a look at that Osama bin Laden that surfaced late last week, see if it represents any kind of a wild card going into the voting tomorrow. It's been noted it was perhaps unusually conciliatory in nature. And Bill Safire in "The Times" this morning writes, that "Generals who are winning the war don't offer to negotiate." We'll take a look.
HEMMER: All right, Jack, thanks.
Top stories now. Heidi Collins with us on this Monday.
Good morning to you.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you guys, and good morning to you, everyone.
Now in the news this morning, a deadly explosion in central Tel Aviv today. A suicide bomber struck nearly three hours ago killing at least three people and leaving more than 30 others wounded. Palestinian sources say a militant group known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has claimed responsibility for the attack.
In Iraq, the deputy governor of Baghdad has been gunned down in a drive-by shooting. Sources say the official was shot by unknown insurgents on his way to work this morning. Police are investigating.
And Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says he's getting closer to authorizing military action in Fallujah. U.S.-led forces have been unable to gain control of the city for the last 18 months.
And there's word Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition may be improving. Arafat is undergoing a fourth day of treatment at a Paris hospital. Palestinian officials say a medical report on his condition could be released as early as tomorrow.
Here in the United States, closing arguments are expected to begin today in the Scott Peterson double-murder case. The prosecution has two days to present final statements, followed by the defense. Jury deliberations could start as early as Wednesday. We will have more on what could be said in today's courtroom from a former San Mateo County prosecutor Dean Johnson. That's coming up in just a little while.
HEMMER: Overshadowed slightly by this thing we call an election, huh?
COLLINS: Yes, no kidding.
HEMMER: Thank you, Heidi.
Presidential campaign flat out of tomorrows officially today. And for both men, there is absolutely no margin for error. According to the latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, President Bush leads Senator Kerry by two points among likely voters. Three percent in that survey say they are still undecided. Gallup estimates that 2 percent of those undecided votes will go to John Kerry, one percent will go to George Bush, all of this within the polls three point margin of error. Now could voters still change their mind before tomorrow? You bet you. Ninety-one percent say no, but the rest, 9 percent say they still could be swayed. Both candidates make last-minute swings through battleground states today. The president will visit Ohio this morning, then Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and then later tonight back to his home state of Texas.
Senator Kerry starts in Florida before hitting Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and then back to Wisconsin.
Let's start our day today with Kelly Wallace, national correspondent where she is starting here day in Orlando, Florida.
Kelly, good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATL. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Senator Kerry starting his day here in Orlando, going to church for All Saints Day, and then holding a rally at the airport. It's a six-stop, four state kind of day for the senator, and there is no mystery at this stage of the game, the senator going to places the campaign believes remain very close.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE (voice-over): His two-year quest for the presidency down to just 24 hours, so every stop designed to get the maximum punch. Tampa last night home of highly coveted swing voters.
KERRY: Two days from now, the mask is coming off, the treats are over, and the tricks will end.
WALLACE: The final push includes visits to states his advisers are most concerned about, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and New Hampshire, where the New England native was downright giddy yesterday, saluting the Boston Red Sox, World Series champs for the first time in 86 years, and receiving an endorsement from the team's front office.
The senator, hailing himself as a good closer, closing out his campaign staying away from talk about the new Osama bin Laden tape, focusing instead on domestic issues, his aides believe middle-class voters want to hear more about.
KERRY: You ready to put America back to work? Are you ready for new leadership in the United States of America? Two more days and help is on the way.
WALLACE: Known to be a bit superstitious, he was all smiles on his campaign plane. Since 1936, if the Washington Redskins lose their pre-election home game, the incumbent party loses -- the Skins fell to the Green Bay Packers yesterday.
KERRY: I think it's a good tradition to follow. I think the country should stay with tradition, don't you?
WALLACE: And at the end after costly and contentious campaign, efforts to show a relaxed, confident candidate, a regular guy, pictures aimed at those voters who are not likely to make a decision until they get to the polls.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: And aides say they are feeling very good. One adviser saying the campaign very confident. It is bringing this home, still, acknowledging much work to be done. So, Bill, get ready for a very busy 24 hours for Senator Kerry.
HEMMER: Yes, indeed you're right.
Kelly, thanks. Kelly Wallace in Florida -- Soledad.
The president, too, is making a mad dash to the finish line. He's going to hit five key battlegrounds on this last full day of campaigning. On Sunday, he went to a pair of states that could decide if he gets another four years in the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
O'BRIEN (voice-over): The president's day ended where John Kerry's began, in Ohio. There Mr. Bush address add crowd from a podium at second base in Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark.
BUSH: We will help Ohio families, and patients and doctors by getting rid of the frivolous junk lawsuits that make (INAUDIBLE)
(APPLAUSE)
O'BRIEN: Earlier in the day, another key battleground, Florida. First in Miami, attending mass at A Catholic church, then courting the Cuban-American vote.
O'BRIEN: We will not rest, we will keep the pressure on until the Cuban people enjoy the same freedoms in Havana that they receive here in America. I strongly believe the people of Cuba should be free from the tyrant.
And later, a scene repeated throughout the day, appealing to disaffected Democrats.
BUSH: If you are a voter who believes that the president of the United States should say what he means, and do what he says and keep his word, I ask you, come stand with me.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
O'BRIEN: White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is in Wilmington, Ohio this morning. That's where we find her.
Good morning, Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Really the only word to describe this day, it's going to be absolutely grueling. We are talking about a 16-hour marathon. That is seven cities in six states, when it's all said and done, it is all about closing the deal and making sure that Bush supporters come out in full force tomorrow. As you know, the president's route today of just very quickly, he is hitting not only Wilmington, Ohio, But Burgesstown (ph), Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Des Moines, Iowa, Sioux City, Iowa, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Dallas, Texas. He's going to be overnighting at his Crawford ranch. All of this, of course, the president arguing, come stand with me on national security, on education, on his economic plan, all of this, of course, his top political adviser Karl Rove, saying he is confident that President Bush is going to win, but absolutely nobody really knows how this is all going to turn out.
Case in point, they are not taking anything for granted. Yesterday, late last night, Vice President Dick Cheney in Honolulu, Hawaii, complete with fire as well as hula dancers, and about 8,000 in the crowd or so. Now, this is a state that has gone Democratic the last four presidential elections. The polls show neck and neck even now. Vice President Dick Cheney making the case that the president is much stronger in national security, even evoking the Pearl Harbor case to make the point.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're standing just a few miles from Pearl Harbor, the site of a sudden attack on the U.S. on Sunday, December 7th, 1941. That day our peaceful country found itself in a global struggle that would last four years and would test our patience and resolve as a nation. Fortunately for us all, a great generation of Americans was more than equal to that challenge.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: And of course, Soledad, not to miss an opportunity perhaps to rib Kerry, yesterday being Halloween, we saw coming off of Air Force One, the president's top political advisers, Karl Rove, Karen Hughes, and Dan Bartlett, all wearing camouflage, making fun, poking fun a little bit at Kerry for that duck hunting trip that created quite a bit of stir, as well as a few jokes, as well.
As you know, Soledad, the president is going to return to his Crawford ranch. That is where he's going to be voting tomorrow. Then he heads back to Washington to find out what the voters have decided -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: They look pretty silly in that.
All right, Suzanne Malveaux for us this morning. Suzanne, thanks -- Bill.
HEMMER: Now the final pre-election polling from the folks at Gallup reveals, surprise, surprise here, a nationwide deadlock.
Ron Brownstein, a political analyst with CNN, also writer for the "L.A. Times," back with us.
Ron, good morning to you. We are almost there. We are almost there.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POL. ANALYST: Bill, good morning. I can see it in sight.
HEMMER: Yes, that's right, the light at the end of the tunnel.
Listen, in the battleground states, the polling we did late yesterday on Sunday, Florida goes to Kerry by three at this point, Ohio goes to Kerry by four, Pennsylvania goes to Bush by four. You win all three, you got a really good shot at the White House. What strikes you from the polling here?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, First of all, I think the assumption is two out of three and two out of three, two out of three of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and two out of three of those upper Midwestern battlegrounds, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, probably gets you there. One thing that is striking about these polls, of course, is you've all three trading hands among your likely voters. You've have Pennsylvania which went to Gore, going to Bush, Florida and Ohio, which went to Bush going to Kerry. It's worth noting your registered voter number gives all three to John Kerry, which would put him in the driver's seat to be president. So these sort of -- it shows you how close we that are whether you look at the likely voters or registered voters, you get a different result.
Bottom line, Bill, I think the polls are so close they can't tell us who is going to be win. That's going to have to be fought out on the ground.
HEMMER: And fought out through voter turnout also. You mentioned a few of the states that I want to talk about next, in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. You will see here in Iowa, Bush by two, Kerry by eight in Minnesota, then Bush by eight in Wisconsin. You say Wisconsin is the key. Why is that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I just find it very hard to see it adding up for John Kerry without winning Wisconsin, unless he can win all three of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, which is difficult to do. In 1996, all of those states were safely Democratic. George Bush improved on the Republican votes significantly in all three of them in 2000, lost them narrowly, but he's continued to gain ground, especially in rural communities, among blue-collar voters, who are culturally conservative and responsive to his peace through strength message. Nowhere else in the country do Democrats need to get white voters in as large a number as they do in the upper Midwest. They don't have those minority population they can depend on elsewhere, and makes it a very tight squeeze that may in fact determine the winner.
HEMMER: The headlines from over the weekend, really stapled on every newspapers across the country, the image again of Osama bin Laden. Did that tape change anything this weekend, Ron?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, it sure doesn't look like it from the polls, Bill. There is no consistent pattern in these last weekeends. Tracking polls, whether nationally or in the state polls, a lot of people thought it would help President Bush by shifting the focus to terrorism. But in fact it looks like the country is very well dug in, and it's not clear this had any kind of discernible and clear impact.
HEMMER: Part of our e-mail question today, too, so we'll get reaction from that throughout the morning.
Thanks, Ron, we'll talk again. Ron Brownstein, down there in D.C.
Our election coverage begins on Tuesday night from the Nasdaq marketsite in Times Square. Realtime election results on 96 TV screens. We have a live townhall meeting that night. You can trust CNN to track the votes, the exit polling, the swing states and so much more. Our primetime coverage Tuesday night starts at 7:00 Eastern Time -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Earlier this morning Kelly Wallace mentioned the Redskins factors. The Redskins lost, giving a historical boost to the Kerry campaign. Well, here are some other odd election predictors. Costume merchants say that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the candidate whose masks were the most popular on Halloween. Buycostumes.com says Bush masks outsold Kerry masks, so that gives the advantage to President Bush.
But, since 1988, Nickelodeon held a kids vote in every election year, and the youngsters are batting a thousand. Well, this year, for the kids John Kerry would be the next U.S. president, 57 percent to Bush's 43 percent. That gives the advantage there to Senator Kerry.
Historically a bad year for the Dow generally means bad news for the sitting president. During the years the Dow has fallen by 10 percent or more the incumbent party has been bounced out of the White House. This year the Dow is down from January, but not a full 10 percent, so that gives the advantage to Bush.
You can just throw it up in the air and take a guess.
HEMMER: I've got a pair of dice over here.
O'BRIEN: We'll do that in our next segment, see how Hemmer rolls.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: In a moment here, the music you listen to has something to say about the candidate you will vote for on Tuesday. We'll explain that in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: Also with the races tight, can anything change voter's minds? We're going to ask both campaigns, Kerry adviser Wes Clark and Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot.
HEMMER: Also, closing arguments start today in Scott Peterson's double-murder trial. Which side has the momentum going in? We'll listen to Dean Johnson for his take this morning on AMERICAN MORNING, live in New York City, sun-up on this Monday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) O'BRIEN: The drama in the court today as Scott Peterson's double-murder trial enters its final phase, closing arguments. The prosecution is up first, and former San Mateo County prosecutor Dean Johnson joins us from the courthouse in Redwood City, California.
Nice to see you, Dean. Thanks for being with us.
Give me a sense of where the momentum is as we go into today.
DEAN JOHNSON, FMR. SAN MATEO CO. PROSECUTOR: You know, I'm starting to love this prosecution team. Every time the defense cheerleaders count them out, they come back with a strong performance, whether it be the redirect of their bad cop, Officer Brocchini, or the cross-examination of the defense expert. The prosecution finished this case with a momentum. They need one more clutch performance from the head of this team, Rick Distasso (ph). He needs to pull this case together for the jury. If they do that, they can potentially win this case.
O'BRIEN: What's the strategy then in pulling the case together? What's the focus going to be, do you think?
JOHNSON: The focus is going to be threefold. First of all, to create a storyline, to tell the jury how all of this evidence hangs together to prove that Scott Peterson committed this murder. Secondly, the prosecution has to clarify their theory as far as motive. I think the jury is going to say Amber Frey alone is not a sufficient motive for murder, we need a broader explanation.
And finally, to explain to this jury the meaning of reasonable doubt, that it doesn't mean beyond all imaginary doubt, it just means in the absence of any other reasonable explanation, if they believe Scott did it, then they have to conclude the case is proved beyond a reasonable doubt.
O'BRIEN: On Friday, the judge gave the jury an option, that they could consider both first-degree murder and also second-degree murder. It was something that Mark Geragos -- excuse me, Dean -- did not want. Why does it make it inherently less likely they will find reasonable doubt by giving them more choice?
JOHNSON: Well, it's not so much that. What the defense is concerned about is that with the option of second-degree murder, the jury may engage in what we call a compromise verdict, that the jury may be divided between first-degree murder and an acquittal, and that they might negotiate and meet somewhere in the middle.
Technically, that is an illegal verdict, but we believe jurors do it all the time. The truth is the law is very clear in California. The judge, regardless of the desires of the parties, had to instruct on both degrees of murder. That's set in stone. The case of Stone Versus Superior Court, and the judge had to do it. We knew it was going to happen. Geragos knew it was going to happen, and the jury will have to deal with it.
O'BRIEN: You have said that this is a trial lawyers dream. What exactly do you mean by that? Just that it's so close?
JOHNSON: Well, yes. I mean we're going to see on Monday and Tuesday the culmination after months long battle, and it all comes down to closing arguments. This is a trial lawyer's dream. Whoever pulls this case together the first and best for this jury is going to win the first important trial of the 21st century. Any trial lawyer worth their salt would give her eye teeth to be in that position.
O'BRIEN: Dean Johnson is a former San Mateo County prosecutor joining us this morning.
Nice to you see you, Dean. Thanks. We'll check in with you when we hear more.
HEMMER: And Soledad, here's another way to predict the outcome of tomorrow's vote. Andy reads the tea leaves on Wall Street in a moment, "Minding Your Business."
Also we're watching the final day of this campaign, live in Wilmington, Ohio, the president's first stop of this very long day ahead for him, and ahead for us on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, what do the financial markets say about who wins tomorrow? Good question. We're crunching the numbers with Andy Serwer, back with us now, "Minding Your Business."
Good Monday morning to you.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning, Bill.
A lot of predictors in this election. We'll get to one in a second.
First of all, nice week for stocks closing out October. Let's check it out. All the indexes up about 3 percent. The Dow up over 269 points.
But what about October? This is where the predictors come in. And Since 1904, I know, since 1904, if the Dow Jones industrials are down more than half of 1 percent the incumbent loses. So guess what, the Dow was down .52 percent. Again, it's too close to call. It's just another -- and of course the other indexes are up. And, you know, you look at all these things. They say the Red Sox could never win the World Series, and of course they did. So we're looking for things to tell us where things are going to go tomorrow, and you can just keep going.
HEMMER: Right, you can look anywhere you want to find out whatever you're looking for, too.
Thank you, Andy -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: You are looking at another predictor potentially of this election. CAFFERTY: You were right about the Patriots, by the way.
SERWER: So were you, though. I owe that call to you, by the way. You were the one who steered me.
CAFFERTY: Leave a little something in the mailbox.
Polls conducted over the weekend show that most voters are ignoring the Bin Laden rants on that videotape that came out on Friday, but the day now before the election, the candidate's team firing accusations at each other over who loses more as a result of Bin Laden's message? The president's backers slammed Kerry for suggesting bush let bin Laden get away two months after 9/11. Kerry supporters say the fact that Bin Laden's still alive underscores their argument the president dropped the ball in capturing the al Qaeda leader dead or alive.
William Safire's "New York Times" op-ed today suggests the tape shows it shows Bin Laden himself who might be the weak weakest link here. Safire says, quote, "Generals do not call for a truce when they are winning," unquote. So on the eve of the election, the extent of the political fallout from the tape remains unknown.
Here's the question, did the Osama bin Laden tape change the way you view the election? Am@CNN.com is the e-mail address.
O'BRIEN: Interesting question. Certainly was an unusual tape to listen to, or the translation.
CAFFERTY: It was conciliatory, compared to some of the other things that have come out of those folks. When you point out the fact that we apparently have succeeded in destroying up to 75 percent of the leadership and infrastructure of al Qaeda in the last two and a half, three years, and that he's probably still living in some hole in the side of the mountain someplace, he did sound conciliatory.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jack. AM@cnn.com.
In a moment here, 90-second version of "90-Second Pop" on a Monday.
You saw the Ashlee Simpson lip syncing fiasco on "SNL," but that was not her first problem of the night.
Plus, how R. Kelly did his best Ashlee Simpson impression on tour. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired November 1, 2004 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The safety and prosperity of America are on the ballot. Hopefully this election comes down to who can you trust?
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This great nation of ours needs leadership that truly unites us as one America and brings people together.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, then there was one. The final day of this campaign where candidates making the final pitch to voters. On the eve of the election, the last look at the polls today, it is a very tight race. The swing states play very much now a determining factor. In the Middle East already, a suicide bomber attacking in Israel, while there is new word on the health of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
And prosecutors try to slam the door on Scott Peterson, closing arguments now set to begin on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. Welcome everybody, just one day left before the election. The race, of course, extremely close. We've got new poll results to take you through this morning, both nationally and in the key battleground states. We're going to go through those numbers. Also we'll take a look at where the candidates are going today, as they do everything possible to try to nail down the election.
HEMMER: And the spin continues. We'll talk to both campaigns this morning in a moment, Marc Racicot for the president, General Wesley Clark for the Kerry campaign. What do they think now? Each side saying they have good reason to be optimistic a day before the vote. We'll find out why in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: Good morning, Mr. Cafferty.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad. We're going to take a look at that Osama bin Laden that surfaced late last week, see if it represents any kind of a wild card going into the voting tomorrow. It's been noted it was perhaps unusually conciliatory in nature. And Bill Safire in "The Times" this morning writes, that "Generals who are winning the war don't offer to negotiate." We'll take a look.
HEMMER: All right, Jack, thanks.
Top stories now. Heidi Collins with us on this Monday.
Good morning to you.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you guys, and good morning to you, everyone.
Now in the news this morning, a deadly explosion in central Tel Aviv today. A suicide bomber struck nearly three hours ago killing at least three people and leaving more than 30 others wounded. Palestinian sources say a militant group known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has claimed responsibility for the attack.
In Iraq, the deputy governor of Baghdad has been gunned down in a drive-by shooting. Sources say the official was shot by unknown insurgents on his way to work this morning. Police are investigating.
And Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says he's getting closer to authorizing military action in Fallujah. U.S.-led forces have been unable to gain control of the city for the last 18 months.
And there's word Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition may be improving. Arafat is undergoing a fourth day of treatment at a Paris hospital. Palestinian officials say a medical report on his condition could be released as early as tomorrow.
Here in the United States, closing arguments are expected to begin today in the Scott Peterson double-murder case. The prosecution has two days to present final statements, followed by the defense. Jury deliberations could start as early as Wednesday. We will have more on what could be said in today's courtroom from a former San Mateo County prosecutor Dean Johnson. That's coming up in just a little while.
HEMMER: Overshadowed slightly by this thing we call an election, huh?
COLLINS: Yes, no kidding.
HEMMER: Thank you, Heidi.
Presidential campaign flat out of tomorrows officially today. And for both men, there is absolutely no margin for error. According to the latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, President Bush leads Senator Kerry by two points among likely voters. Three percent in that survey say they are still undecided. Gallup estimates that 2 percent of those undecided votes will go to John Kerry, one percent will go to George Bush, all of this within the polls three point margin of error. Now could voters still change their mind before tomorrow? You bet you. Ninety-one percent say no, but the rest, 9 percent say they still could be swayed. Both candidates make last-minute swings through battleground states today. The president will visit Ohio this morning, then Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and then later tonight back to his home state of Texas.
Senator Kerry starts in Florida before hitting Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and then back to Wisconsin.
Let's start our day today with Kelly Wallace, national correspondent where she is starting here day in Orlando, Florida.
Kelly, good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATL. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Senator Kerry starting his day here in Orlando, going to church for All Saints Day, and then holding a rally at the airport. It's a six-stop, four state kind of day for the senator, and there is no mystery at this stage of the game, the senator going to places the campaign believes remain very close.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE (voice-over): His two-year quest for the presidency down to just 24 hours, so every stop designed to get the maximum punch. Tampa last night home of highly coveted swing voters.
KERRY: Two days from now, the mask is coming off, the treats are over, and the tricks will end.
WALLACE: The final push includes visits to states his advisers are most concerned about, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and New Hampshire, where the New England native was downright giddy yesterday, saluting the Boston Red Sox, World Series champs for the first time in 86 years, and receiving an endorsement from the team's front office.
The senator, hailing himself as a good closer, closing out his campaign staying away from talk about the new Osama bin Laden tape, focusing instead on domestic issues, his aides believe middle-class voters want to hear more about.
KERRY: You ready to put America back to work? Are you ready for new leadership in the United States of America? Two more days and help is on the way.
WALLACE: Known to be a bit superstitious, he was all smiles on his campaign plane. Since 1936, if the Washington Redskins lose their pre-election home game, the incumbent party loses -- the Skins fell to the Green Bay Packers yesterday.
KERRY: I think it's a good tradition to follow. I think the country should stay with tradition, don't you?
WALLACE: And at the end after costly and contentious campaign, efforts to show a relaxed, confident candidate, a regular guy, pictures aimed at those voters who are not likely to make a decision until they get to the polls.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALLACE: And aides say they are feeling very good. One adviser saying the campaign very confident. It is bringing this home, still, acknowledging much work to be done. So, Bill, get ready for a very busy 24 hours for Senator Kerry.
HEMMER: Yes, indeed you're right.
Kelly, thanks. Kelly Wallace in Florida -- Soledad.
The president, too, is making a mad dash to the finish line. He's going to hit five key battlegrounds on this last full day of campaigning. On Sunday, he went to a pair of states that could decide if he gets another four years in the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
O'BRIEN (voice-over): The president's day ended where John Kerry's began, in Ohio. There Mr. Bush address add crowd from a podium at second base in Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark.
BUSH: We will help Ohio families, and patients and doctors by getting rid of the frivolous junk lawsuits that make (INAUDIBLE)
(APPLAUSE)
O'BRIEN: Earlier in the day, another key battleground, Florida. First in Miami, attending mass at A Catholic church, then courting the Cuban-American vote.
O'BRIEN: We will not rest, we will keep the pressure on until the Cuban people enjoy the same freedoms in Havana that they receive here in America. I strongly believe the people of Cuba should be free from the tyrant.
And later, a scene repeated throughout the day, appealing to disaffected Democrats.
BUSH: If you are a voter who believes that the president of the United States should say what he means, and do what he says and keep his word, I ask you, come stand with me.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
O'BRIEN: White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is in Wilmington, Ohio this morning. That's where we find her.
Good morning, Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Really the only word to describe this day, it's going to be absolutely grueling. We are talking about a 16-hour marathon. That is seven cities in six states, when it's all said and done, it is all about closing the deal and making sure that Bush supporters come out in full force tomorrow. As you know, the president's route today of just very quickly, he is hitting not only Wilmington, Ohio, But Burgesstown (ph), Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Des Moines, Iowa, Sioux City, Iowa, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Dallas, Texas. He's going to be overnighting at his Crawford ranch. All of this, of course, the president arguing, come stand with me on national security, on education, on his economic plan, all of this, of course, his top political adviser Karl Rove, saying he is confident that President Bush is going to win, but absolutely nobody really knows how this is all going to turn out.
Case in point, they are not taking anything for granted. Yesterday, late last night, Vice President Dick Cheney in Honolulu, Hawaii, complete with fire as well as hula dancers, and about 8,000 in the crowd or so. Now, this is a state that has gone Democratic the last four presidential elections. The polls show neck and neck even now. Vice President Dick Cheney making the case that the president is much stronger in national security, even evoking the Pearl Harbor case to make the point.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're standing just a few miles from Pearl Harbor, the site of a sudden attack on the U.S. on Sunday, December 7th, 1941. That day our peaceful country found itself in a global struggle that would last four years and would test our patience and resolve as a nation. Fortunately for us all, a great generation of Americans was more than equal to that challenge.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: And of course, Soledad, not to miss an opportunity perhaps to rib Kerry, yesterday being Halloween, we saw coming off of Air Force One, the president's top political advisers, Karl Rove, Karen Hughes, and Dan Bartlett, all wearing camouflage, making fun, poking fun a little bit at Kerry for that duck hunting trip that created quite a bit of stir, as well as a few jokes, as well.
As you know, Soledad, the president is going to return to his Crawford ranch. That is where he's going to be voting tomorrow. Then he heads back to Washington to find out what the voters have decided -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: They look pretty silly in that.
All right, Suzanne Malveaux for us this morning. Suzanne, thanks -- Bill.
HEMMER: Now the final pre-election polling from the folks at Gallup reveals, surprise, surprise here, a nationwide deadlock.
Ron Brownstein, a political analyst with CNN, also writer for the "L.A. Times," back with us.
Ron, good morning to you. We are almost there. We are almost there.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POL. ANALYST: Bill, good morning. I can see it in sight.
HEMMER: Yes, that's right, the light at the end of the tunnel.
Listen, in the battleground states, the polling we did late yesterday on Sunday, Florida goes to Kerry by three at this point, Ohio goes to Kerry by four, Pennsylvania goes to Bush by four. You win all three, you got a really good shot at the White House. What strikes you from the polling here?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, First of all, I think the assumption is two out of three and two out of three, two out of three of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and two out of three of those upper Midwestern battlegrounds, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, probably gets you there. One thing that is striking about these polls, of course, is you've all three trading hands among your likely voters. You've have Pennsylvania which went to Gore, going to Bush, Florida and Ohio, which went to Bush going to Kerry. It's worth noting your registered voter number gives all three to John Kerry, which would put him in the driver's seat to be president. So these sort of -- it shows you how close we that are whether you look at the likely voters or registered voters, you get a different result.
Bottom line, Bill, I think the polls are so close they can't tell us who is going to be win. That's going to have to be fought out on the ground.
HEMMER: And fought out through voter turnout also. You mentioned a few of the states that I want to talk about next, in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. You will see here in Iowa, Bush by two, Kerry by eight in Minnesota, then Bush by eight in Wisconsin. You say Wisconsin is the key. Why is that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I just find it very hard to see it adding up for John Kerry without winning Wisconsin, unless he can win all three of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, which is difficult to do. In 1996, all of those states were safely Democratic. George Bush improved on the Republican votes significantly in all three of them in 2000, lost them narrowly, but he's continued to gain ground, especially in rural communities, among blue-collar voters, who are culturally conservative and responsive to his peace through strength message. Nowhere else in the country do Democrats need to get white voters in as large a number as they do in the upper Midwest. They don't have those minority population they can depend on elsewhere, and makes it a very tight squeeze that may in fact determine the winner.
HEMMER: The headlines from over the weekend, really stapled on every newspapers across the country, the image again of Osama bin Laden. Did that tape change anything this weekend, Ron?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, it sure doesn't look like it from the polls, Bill. There is no consistent pattern in these last weekeends. Tracking polls, whether nationally or in the state polls, a lot of people thought it would help President Bush by shifting the focus to terrorism. But in fact it looks like the country is very well dug in, and it's not clear this had any kind of discernible and clear impact.
HEMMER: Part of our e-mail question today, too, so we'll get reaction from that throughout the morning.
Thanks, Ron, we'll talk again. Ron Brownstein, down there in D.C.
Our election coverage begins on Tuesday night from the Nasdaq marketsite in Times Square. Realtime election results on 96 TV screens. We have a live townhall meeting that night. You can trust CNN to track the votes, the exit polling, the swing states and so much more. Our primetime coverage Tuesday night starts at 7:00 Eastern Time -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Earlier this morning Kelly Wallace mentioned the Redskins factors. The Redskins lost, giving a historical boost to the Kerry campaign. Well, here are some other odd election predictors. Costume merchants say that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the candidate whose masks were the most popular on Halloween. Buycostumes.com says Bush masks outsold Kerry masks, so that gives the advantage to President Bush.
But, since 1988, Nickelodeon held a kids vote in every election year, and the youngsters are batting a thousand. Well, this year, for the kids John Kerry would be the next U.S. president, 57 percent to Bush's 43 percent. That gives the advantage there to Senator Kerry.
Historically a bad year for the Dow generally means bad news for the sitting president. During the years the Dow has fallen by 10 percent or more the incumbent party has been bounced out of the White House. This year the Dow is down from January, but not a full 10 percent, so that gives the advantage to Bush.
You can just throw it up in the air and take a guess.
HEMMER: I've got a pair of dice over here.
O'BRIEN: We'll do that in our next segment, see how Hemmer rolls.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: In a moment here, the music you listen to has something to say about the candidate you will vote for on Tuesday. We'll explain that in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: Also with the races tight, can anything change voter's minds? We're going to ask both campaigns, Kerry adviser Wes Clark and Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot.
HEMMER: Also, closing arguments start today in Scott Peterson's double-murder trial. Which side has the momentum going in? We'll listen to Dean Johnson for his take this morning on AMERICAN MORNING, live in New York City, sun-up on this Monday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) O'BRIEN: The drama in the court today as Scott Peterson's double-murder trial enters its final phase, closing arguments. The prosecution is up first, and former San Mateo County prosecutor Dean Johnson joins us from the courthouse in Redwood City, California.
Nice to see you, Dean. Thanks for being with us.
Give me a sense of where the momentum is as we go into today.
DEAN JOHNSON, FMR. SAN MATEO CO. PROSECUTOR: You know, I'm starting to love this prosecution team. Every time the defense cheerleaders count them out, they come back with a strong performance, whether it be the redirect of their bad cop, Officer Brocchini, or the cross-examination of the defense expert. The prosecution finished this case with a momentum. They need one more clutch performance from the head of this team, Rick Distasso (ph). He needs to pull this case together for the jury. If they do that, they can potentially win this case.
O'BRIEN: What's the strategy then in pulling the case together? What's the focus going to be, do you think?
JOHNSON: The focus is going to be threefold. First of all, to create a storyline, to tell the jury how all of this evidence hangs together to prove that Scott Peterson committed this murder. Secondly, the prosecution has to clarify their theory as far as motive. I think the jury is going to say Amber Frey alone is not a sufficient motive for murder, we need a broader explanation.
And finally, to explain to this jury the meaning of reasonable doubt, that it doesn't mean beyond all imaginary doubt, it just means in the absence of any other reasonable explanation, if they believe Scott did it, then they have to conclude the case is proved beyond a reasonable doubt.
O'BRIEN: On Friday, the judge gave the jury an option, that they could consider both first-degree murder and also second-degree murder. It was something that Mark Geragos -- excuse me, Dean -- did not want. Why does it make it inherently less likely they will find reasonable doubt by giving them more choice?
JOHNSON: Well, it's not so much that. What the defense is concerned about is that with the option of second-degree murder, the jury may engage in what we call a compromise verdict, that the jury may be divided between first-degree murder and an acquittal, and that they might negotiate and meet somewhere in the middle.
Technically, that is an illegal verdict, but we believe jurors do it all the time. The truth is the law is very clear in California. The judge, regardless of the desires of the parties, had to instruct on both degrees of murder. That's set in stone. The case of Stone Versus Superior Court, and the judge had to do it. We knew it was going to happen. Geragos knew it was going to happen, and the jury will have to deal with it.
O'BRIEN: You have said that this is a trial lawyers dream. What exactly do you mean by that? Just that it's so close?
JOHNSON: Well, yes. I mean we're going to see on Monday and Tuesday the culmination after months long battle, and it all comes down to closing arguments. This is a trial lawyer's dream. Whoever pulls this case together the first and best for this jury is going to win the first important trial of the 21st century. Any trial lawyer worth their salt would give her eye teeth to be in that position.
O'BRIEN: Dean Johnson is a former San Mateo County prosecutor joining us this morning.
Nice to you see you, Dean. Thanks. We'll check in with you when we hear more.
HEMMER: And Soledad, here's another way to predict the outcome of tomorrow's vote. Andy reads the tea leaves on Wall Street in a moment, "Minding Your Business."
Also we're watching the final day of this campaign, live in Wilmington, Ohio, the president's first stop of this very long day ahead for him, and ahead for us on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, what do the financial markets say about who wins tomorrow? Good question. We're crunching the numbers with Andy Serwer, back with us now, "Minding Your Business."
Good Monday morning to you.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning, Bill.
A lot of predictors in this election. We'll get to one in a second.
First of all, nice week for stocks closing out October. Let's check it out. All the indexes up about 3 percent. The Dow up over 269 points.
But what about October? This is where the predictors come in. And Since 1904, I know, since 1904, if the Dow Jones industrials are down more than half of 1 percent the incumbent loses. So guess what, the Dow was down .52 percent. Again, it's too close to call. It's just another -- and of course the other indexes are up. And, you know, you look at all these things. They say the Red Sox could never win the World Series, and of course they did. So we're looking for things to tell us where things are going to go tomorrow, and you can just keep going.
HEMMER: Right, you can look anywhere you want to find out whatever you're looking for, too.
Thank you, Andy -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: You are looking at another predictor potentially of this election. CAFFERTY: You were right about the Patriots, by the way.
SERWER: So were you, though. I owe that call to you, by the way. You were the one who steered me.
CAFFERTY: Leave a little something in the mailbox.
Polls conducted over the weekend show that most voters are ignoring the Bin Laden rants on that videotape that came out on Friday, but the day now before the election, the candidate's team firing accusations at each other over who loses more as a result of Bin Laden's message? The president's backers slammed Kerry for suggesting bush let bin Laden get away two months after 9/11. Kerry supporters say the fact that Bin Laden's still alive underscores their argument the president dropped the ball in capturing the al Qaeda leader dead or alive.
William Safire's "New York Times" op-ed today suggests the tape shows it shows Bin Laden himself who might be the weak weakest link here. Safire says, quote, "Generals do not call for a truce when they are winning," unquote. So on the eve of the election, the extent of the political fallout from the tape remains unknown.
Here's the question, did the Osama bin Laden tape change the way you view the election? Am@CNN.com is the e-mail address.
O'BRIEN: Interesting question. Certainly was an unusual tape to listen to, or the translation.
CAFFERTY: It was conciliatory, compared to some of the other things that have come out of those folks. When you point out the fact that we apparently have succeeded in destroying up to 75 percent of the leadership and infrastructure of al Qaeda in the last two and a half, three years, and that he's probably still living in some hole in the side of the mountain someplace, he did sound conciliatory.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jack. AM@cnn.com.
In a moment here, 90-second version of "90-Second Pop" on a Monday.
You saw the Ashlee Simpson lip syncing fiasco on "SNL," but that was not her first problem of the night.
Plus, how R. Kelly did his best Ashlee Simpson impression on tour. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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