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American Morning
Kerry's Campaign Strategy in Final Hours; Interview With Governor Bill Richardson; Governor Bill Owens
Aired November 01, 2004 - 8:59 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: "Now in the News," Israeli police are boosting security after a morning suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. The blast killed at least three people and left more than 30 others wounded. A Palestinian militant group has claimed responsibility. Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei has condemned the attack.
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat appears to be on the mend, according to his aides. The 75-year-old Arafat is spending a fourth day undergoing testing at a military hospital in Paris. Details about his condition have not been released. But a medical report is expected as early as tomorrow.
And U.S. Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist heading back to work. There's word the 80-year-old chief justice left his home in Arlington in a wheelchair earlier this morning. He was diagnosed last week with thyroid cancer and underwent a tracheotomy.
And a 13-hour ordeal is now over for a little boy in Alabama. Rescuers freed Jamir McMillan (ph) less than two hours ago after he became trapped in a well yesterday in Frisco City. He's said to be doing well and apparently suffered only a few scratches and bruises.
And a little bit of crying I think, too. But that's OK now.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Poor little boy. But thank god.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Scary moments, but good.
Thank you, Heidi.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Heidi.
Weather now, and Chad Myers at the CNN Center for us with a look at what the forecast will be tomorrow, and today as well.
Hey, Chad.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hey, good morning. And good night, Jack, because I hate to say "good morning" to you if you're not in the mood.
(WEATHER REPORT)
O'BRIEN: Yes, eventually it does have to get cold as we get into winter. All right, Chad, thanks a lot. Appreciate it. One more day until America elects a president. According to the latest CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll, President Bush leads Senator Kerry by two points among likely voters. Three percent still say they're undecided.
Gallup estimates that two percentage points of those undecided voters will go to Kerry, one point Bush. All of it within the poll's three-point margin of error.
Could voters still change their minds before tomorrow? Ninety- one percent of those polled said no. The rest say yes, they could still be swayed.
Both candidates will make last-minute swings through battleground states today. The president will visit Ohio and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico, then head home to Texas. And Senator Kerry begins his day in Florida before traveling to Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and then back to Wisconsin.
So with so little time left, what is the Kerry campaign's strategy for the final hours? Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart live from Washington with us this morning.
Nice to see you, Joe. Thanks for being with us.
Let's get right to the numbers. Forty-nine percent to 49 percent, according to a Gallup poll. So obviously neck and neck.
In an op-ed, Senator Kerry wrote for the "Boston Globe," he lists all the areas where he said President Bush failed America, the war on terror. He says Iraq is a mess, he says the economy is not doing as well as it should. Why isn't Senator Kerry, then, way ahead? Why is it neck and neck?
JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Well, listen, I think one of the first problems is, is for whatever reason, we keep focusing on the national number. This is really being fought out in 10 to 12 states, the so-called battleground states. And in those states I think we do have a pretty good lead.
It's not something that we're taking for granted. We -- obviously, Senator Kerry is going to travel all over those states today, exhorting people to get out to vote. But I think the people in those states have really had the campaign engaged, seen both of the candidates, had a chance to take a good, hard look, are increasingly moving to John Kerry.
O'BRIEN: What kind of a role do you think this new Osama bin Laden tape will have in the election? Let me just read you a small chunk of it.
He ends by saying, "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Any nation that does not attack us will not be attacked."
Who do you think, or do you think any voters will be swayed any direction by this?
LOCKHART: I don't think any voter will. I mean, I think the one thing that John Kerry and the president can agree on is that this is our democracy. Tomorrow is our day, the American public's day. And, you know, a terrorist murder hiding in a cave someplace doesn't have a role in it.
And, you know, we have very clearly stated from John Kerry on down that we're going to talk about our issues on our timetable. And Osama bin Laden doesn't have -- doesn't get to play here.
O'BRIEN: Earlier this morning we spoke to Marc Racicot of the Bush campaign. Here's what he had to say after a question I asked him about the Osama bin Laden tape.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARC RACICOT, BUSH CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: We don't take polls to figure out how it is that the president ought to address international or foreign affairs, or the war on terror. I think the people in this country, I think that's a metaphor for the entire Kerry campaign, take a poll to figure out how you respond to the Osama bin Laden tape. At the end of the day, this president is principled and steady and strong, and I believe the good people of Ohio will recognize that in the end.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: He's talking about a democracy core poll that talked about essentially the same question that I just asked you about...
LOCKHART: Right.
O'BRIEN: ... what the impact will be on voters. Do you think what -- what Marc Racicot is raising has any kind of legs?
LOCKHART: Oh, listen, you know, I think it's just one of the last sounds of a desperate campaign that's failing. You know, we don't need to take polls to know how you deal with murderous thugs. You track them down, you kill them. And John Kerry will do that.
This guy's been out...
O'BRIEN: How?
LOCKHART: He'll do it a number of ways. One is, he has a proposal to double the number of special forces we have in our military, add 40,000 active duty troops with an eye towards terrorism, and get real international cooperation.
You know, I think that there's been a lot of smoke ginned up by the Republicans over what happened at Tora Bora. And you know that when they're furiously spinning there's something they're hiding.
You know, Dick Clarke, who was the president's counterterrorism guy, went on TV on Friday and said, "I was in the government. I know what happened at Tora Bora. John Kerry is right."
He slipped through our grasp. We didn't do everything we needed to do. We haven't done everything we've needed to do on terror because we spent a long time and distracted in Iraq, and that's now a mess, and creating more terrorists as the days go by. So these are the things the American public will have on their mind when they go to vote tomorrow, and that's why we're confident.
O'BRIEN: One of the big themes of Kerry's's campaign is this "Fresh Start." You see it in signs on the podium every time he speaks.
Is there some concern about that as a theme? Do you think Americans, while we're in the middle of a war on terror and a war in Iraq, are ready for a fresh start?
LOCKHART: Well, I think every -- I think people are. I think people, by and large, think that what's going on in Iraq is a mess. The president has made a series of misjudgments. He hasn't handled it well.
There was a terrible, terrible story on "60 Minutes" last night talking about the troops that are on the ground now who still, after two years, almost, don't have the body armor that they need. That people at home are raising money and sending them -- you know, sending body armor over to Iraq to try to protect their family members because this government won't do it.
So I think people think there's a need for a fresh start in Iraq. But even more, I think people need -- think there needs to be a fresh start on the economy, on health care.
This president has sided with the special interests, the powerful, the well-connected from day one. The middle class has been ignored. John Kerry's going to change that. And I think very much so people are looking for a fresh start.
O'BRIEN: Well, we should know within the next few hours or so.
LOCKHART: We will.
O'BRIEN: Joe Lockhart joining us this morning. Nice to see you, Joe. Thanks.
LOCKHART: Thanks.
O'BRIEN: CNN's election coverage -- night coverage comes to you live from the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square. For real-time election results on 96 TV screens, to a live town hall meeting, you can trust CNN to track the votes, the exit polls and the swing states and more. Our prime-time coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
HEMMER: Also, Soledad, if you're desperately trying to figure out who is best to win tomorrow, some odd election predictors for you. About five of them now. The outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game before the election correctly predicting the winner of every race since 1936. The Redskins lost yesterday. Did it in the end, as a matter of fact, so advantage Kerry there.
But hang on. Costume merchants say that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the man whose masks were most popular on Halloween. BuyCostumes.com says Bush outsells Kerry masks. So advantage for the president.
Now, since the advent of TV and presidential races, the taller candidate has won every single race except for two. In 1976, Jimmy Carter was taller than Gerald Ford but lost. In 2000, Al Gore was taller than Bush. He lost.
Kerry's about 6'4", maybe 6'5". Bush is 5'11". So advantage Senator Kerry.
And as a rule, rising hemlines -- I don't know where they get it -- rising hemlines have suggested that a Democrat will win, while longer skirts suggest a Republican in office. This year, designers say hemlines are up once again. So advantage Kerry.
You're saying what?
O'BRIEN: The pencil skirt is back. That's long. Below the knee. I'm just throwing it out there.
HEMMER: Undecided? Too close to call?
O'BRIEN: Undecided. Too close to call I think, Mr. Hemmer.
HEMMER: Consider that.
O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, coffee alone may not do much to raise your risk for heart disease, but a new study shows a dangerous combination with coffee could actually double it.
HEMMER: Also, the candidates hunting for those last votes as the clock ticks down. But there is one topic that appears to be off limits for discussion. We'll mention that.
O'BRIEN: And what happens to the electoral college if individual states start playing by separate rules? One state prepares to vote on an issue that could change those rules. We'll explain ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: With the election tomorrow, the battle for the battleground states in its final day today. And one of those states is New Mexico. The governor, Bill Richardson, a Democrat, live from Santa Fe this morning, back with us.
And Governor, good morning to you as we come down to the...
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D), NEW MEXICO: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: ... final last day. On the screen you can see the polling really goes for Senator Kerry, in some cases, and President Bush for others. I know you believe Senator Kerry will win your state, but tell me why you believe that based on early voting and things you're seeing today.
RICHARDSON: Well, three reasons, Bill. Number one, 140,000 new voters have registered in New Mexico since June. And Senator Kerry is ahead by 20 points with those voters, according to the polls that you just showed.
Secondly, a huge number of new Native American Indian voters, close to, for instance, 10,000 newly registered Navajos, who for the first time seem very determined. And then third, among the early voting and in-person voting, we're ahead by about 5-3. Despite the fact that we may be behind by 3 percent, those are very positive trends.
And then there are a lot of rural Native American voters that don't have phones. Not even cell phones. And I always estimate in all my races in New Mexico that we get one or two percent from that.
So I feel confident. I feel good that we'll win it very narrowly. I also feel good that in other western states, like Nevada, and in Colorado, although my friend Bill Owens may dispute it, that the momentum is very much with us.
HEMMER: We will get to Bill Owens in a moment here. Three hundred and sixty-six votes back in 2000, that's what decided your state in the column of Al Gore.
In the past few days, though, Dick Cheney has been in New Mexico. He talked about this Osama bin Laden tape. He also mentioned this, too, on the stump in Iowa. Listen to how he talked about the polling that was apparently done in some Democratic corners.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The thing that I find amazing about it is that John Kerry's first response was to go conduct a poll. He went out and went into the field with a public opinion poll to find out what he should say about this tape of Osama bin Laden. It was as though he didn't know what he believes until he has to go and check polls, stick his finger in the air, see which way the political winds are blowing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Governor, this is what Republicans say is the problem with John Kerry. How do you respond to Dick Cheney's words?
RICHARDSON: Well, that's false. The first response that Senator Kerry, when he learned of the tape, instead of playing politics and being partisan, what Senator Kerry said, "We're all Americans. We're behind killing and capturing these terrorists." That "We're a nation that is at war, and there are no Democrats, no Republicans today."
That was his first response. This is desperation. They're -- they know that the trend in each battleground state is not heading their way. And so they make these allegations and try to create the spin for the day and the news coverage of the day.
HEMMER: Governor, if I could, you call it desperation. Does not the appearance of Osama bin Laden on videotape help remind Americans about the war on terror? And if so, do you believe that favors the White House at this point?
RICHARDSON: Well, Bill, my view is that the American people have made decisions on how they're going to vote. It's now going to be turnout.
You know, I can turn around and tell you that if you look at it that way, the fact that you still see Osama bin Laden out there, it reminds you that he hasn't been captured. But we shouldn't play politics with that issue.
We should just gear ourselves to recognizing that this is our number one priority, the fight against terrorism. And that we should divert resources from Iraq and other parts of the world to Osama bin Laden, to North Korea, to Iran, that today said they're going to produce uranium enrichment. So again, Bill, we shouldn't play politics with that issue.
Right now it's turnout. Right now it's turnout. Who's going to be better at getting the votes out. And traditionally, Democrats have been better at that. Although Republicans have dramatically improved.
HEMMER: Thank you, Governor. Bill Richardson out in Santa Fe.
Want to talk about Colorado. You mentioned it. To Bill Owens, the Republican governor in the state of Colorado.
Governor, good morning and welcome back.
GOV. BILL OWENS (R), COLORADO: Good morning. Good to be with you.
HEMMER: I'll pick up on that same point that Governor Richardson is talking about. Is the presence of Osama bin Laden reminding Americans that he is still out there, still on the run and still alive, which goes against the war on terror from the beginning? Remember, wanted dead or alive in the days after 9/11.
OWENS: Well, I think it is indicative that the only thing that he's been able to do to us directly is send us videotapes. And I think it's also important to remember that today the leaders of Afghanistan, who harbored these terrorists back on September 11, are no longer in power.
Afghanistan has just held its first Democratic elections in 5,000 years. And the same is true in Iraq. We're making tremendous progress removing that particular harborer of terrorists. So I think the world is safer. We're all united in the fact that we want to get Osama bin Laden. But I think it's also clear what Osama bin Laden was trying to do to this American electorate as we approach November 2 with his warning and with his videotape.
HEMMER: Let's take what you're saying and apply it to the people in your state now. And let's talk about this amendment known as number 36, that may actually, if it passes, split the electoral college turnout in your state. At this point, do you believe this initiative will pass tomorrow?
OWENS: You know, Bill, I don't. Three or four weeks ago it was ahead by about 20 points. Today it's behind in the polls.
This amendment was put on our ballot in Colorado by a gentleman who's a John Kerry backer. He's put more than a million dollars into this effort. He now happens to reside in Brazil. Coloradoans have seen it for what it is, which is an attempt to divide our electoral votes, change them from nine votes for -- for George Bush, to five votes for George Bush, four for John Kerry.
HEMMER: Take it just a step further, though. Why are you suggesting, though, that the public has changed side on this?
OWENS: You know, it's changed because I think Coloradoans now understand more of what the underlying motive was. We also -- every newspaper in the state has come out against this.
As Bill Richardson and I have pointed out earlier, this would really weaken small western states. We don't have a lot of electoral votes to begin with. If we started dividing them, it reduces our ability substantially to get a fair shake from our friends in Washington, D.C.
HEMMER: You know the Kerry campaign believes it has a pretty good shot at winning your state tomorrow. How close is it in Colorado today?
OWENS: You know, I don't believe it's close anymore. We never took this state for granted on the Bush side of the equation.
Polling over the weekend in both of the major newspapers, "The Denver Post," "Rocky Mountain News," showed this race at plus six and plus seven for George Bush. So we're optimistic that -- that George Bush is doing very well in Colorado, indeed.
HEMMER: We shall find out tomorrow. Thank you, Governor.
OWENS: You bet.
HEMMER: Bill Owens there in Colorado this morning.
A break here in a moment. On the eve of the election, back to the scene of so much controversy four years ago. Seems there's still plenty to talk about again in Florida. This time we'll tell you what that is all about as we continue after this. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, if George Bush wants to make national security the central issue of the campaign of 2004, I have three words for him that I know he understands: bring it on.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Do you remember that moment?
HEMMER: It seems like it was years ago, doesn't it?
O'BRIEN: On the campaign -- it does start feeling it was many, many years ago. But no, it was just this summer.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: It's like trying to look back and remember all the times you've been to the dentist looking at these. I mean, it's just, you know -- good morning.
O'BRIEN: Getting painful?
CAFFERTY: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Good morning to you.
CAFFERTY: Good morning.
HEMMER: Good morning.
CAFFERTY: We've been talking about the tape of Osama bin Laden that surfaced last Friday. The candidates firing accusations at each other over who loses more as a result of bin Laden's message.
William Safire in "The Times" this morning suggests the tape shows it's bin Laden who has lost the most. Safire says, "Generals don't call for a truce when they're winning."
The day before the election, though, the political fallout from the tape remains unknown. The question is this: Did the Osama bin Laden tape change the way you view the election?
Tom in Alma, West Virginia, "OBL didn't have anything new to say. He only hurts Arabs everywhere. I doubt he'll change many votes. I can't believe that was his purpose. I think he was trying to prove to his own mindless followers that he's still alive."
Laura in New York, "Yes, it did. The tape had a desperate quality to it and showed bin Laden for the pathetic creature that he is. I credit Mr. Bush for that, and am willing to give him the opportunity to send Osama to paradise."
Somebody who signed their note "The Wizard," writes, "Yes, Bush and Rumsfeld have been telling the Osama is hiding in a cave. Looks to me like he's staying at the Saudi Four Seasons. Maybe they should look up his room number if they want to find him or look in the telephone book."
He does look rather well scrubbed there, doesn't he?
And Neil in New Orleans, Louisiana, "His conciliatory tone sounds to me like he's thoughtfully looking ahead to the 2008 election, anticipating that Arnold Schwarzenegger will successfully overturn the restriction requiring presidents to be natural born citizens. Bin Laden will run for president of the United States as the nominee of the reformed terrorists party."
HEMMER: You were talking about October surprises last week? That was one of them.
CAFFERTY: Well, yes, wasn't it? I guess.
HEMMER: Yes. By the way, congratulations to you.
CAFFERTY: For what?
HEMMER: You and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) went out on a limb. You said the Patriots were going to lose this weekend.
CAFFERTY: To Pittsburgh.
HEMMER: To Pittsburgh, and they did. The Steelers beat them at home, in fact. Ben Roethlisberger, the rookie quarterback.
CAFFERTY: He's pretty impressive.
HEMMER: Yes, he is. Out of Miami of Ohio, by the way.
CAFFERTY: The guy who caught these two passes ain't no chopped liver either.
HEMMER: Ended New England's 21-game winning streak. The longest in NFL history, in fact.
Steelers scored 21 points in the first quarter. Beat them 34-20 the final.
Pittsburgh looked really, really good at home. Eighteen straight wins was the old record. Regular season, had not lost since September of 2003. It's all over. And this guy right here...
CAFFERTY: Do you think Bill Cowher smiled after the game was over?
HEMMER: He's got some facial expressions that go a day long, don't you think?
CAFFERTY: Boy, he looks just mean.
HEMMER: Oh, yes, when he gets that scowl. Yes.
In a moment here, your Monday morning edition of "90-Second Pop" rolls your way.
(MUSIC)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER (voice-over): You saw the Ashlee Simpson lip-synching fiasco on "SNL." But that was not her first problem of the night.
Plus, how R. Kelly did his best Ashlee Simpson impression on tour.
That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
Sill to come, if you have to have your daily cup of joe you better not combine it with another addictive habit. Alarming new study on heart disease.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired November 1, 2004 - 8:59 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: "Now in the News," Israeli police are boosting security after a morning suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. The blast killed at least three people and left more than 30 others wounded. A Palestinian militant group has claimed responsibility. Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei has condemned the attack.
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat appears to be on the mend, according to his aides. The 75-year-old Arafat is spending a fourth day undergoing testing at a military hospital in Paris. Details about his condition have not been released. But a medical report is expected as early as tomorrow.
And U.S. Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist heading back to work. There's word the 80-year-old chief justice left his home in Arlington in a wheelchair earlier this morning. He was diagnosed last week with thyroid cancer and underwent a tracheotomy.
And a 13-hour ordeal is now over for a little boy in Alabama. Rescuers freed Jamir McMillan (ph) less than two hours ago after he became trapped in a well yesterday in Frisco City. He's said to be doing well and apparently suffered only a few scratches and bruises.
And a little bit of crying I think, too. But that's OK now.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Poor little boy. But thank god.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Scary moments, but good.
Thank you, Heidi.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Heidi.
Weather now, and Chad Myers at the CNN Center for us with a look at what the forecast will be tomorrow, and today as well.
Hey, Chad.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hey, good morning. And good night, Jack, because I hate to say "good morning" to you if you're not in the mood.
(WEATHER REPORT)
O'BRIEN: Yes, eventually it does have to get cold as we get into winter. All right, Chad, thanks a lot. Appreciate it. One more day until America elects a president. According to the latest CNN-"USA Today"-Gallup poll, President Bush leads Senator Kerry by two points among likely voters. Three percent still say they're undecided.
Gallup estimates that two percentage points of those undecided voters will go to Kerry, one point Bush. All of it within the poll's three-point margin of error.
Could voters still change their minds before tomorrow? Ninety- one percent of those polled said no. The rest say yes, they could still be swayed.
Both candidates will make last-minute swings through battleground states today. The president will visit Ohio and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico, then head home to Texas. And Senator Kerry begins his day in Florida before traveling to Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and then back to Wisconsin.
So with so little time left, what is the Kerry campaign's strategy for the final hours? Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart live from Washington with us this morning.
Nice to see you, Joe. Thanks for being with us.
Let's get right to the numbers. Forty-nine percent to 49 percent, according to a Gallup poll. So obviously neck and neck.
In an op-ed, Senator Kerry wrote for the "Boston Globe," he lists all the areas where he said President Bush failed America, the war on terror. He says Iraq is a mess, he says the economy is not doing as well as it should. Why isn't Senator Kerry, then, way ahead? Why is it neck and neck?
JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Well, listen, I think one of the first problems is, is for whatever reason, we keep focusing on the national number. This is really being fought out in 10 to 12 states, the so-called battleground states. And in those states I think we do have a pretty good lead.
It's not something that we're taking for granted. We -- obviously, Senator Kerry is going to travel all over those states today, exhorting people to get out to vote. But I think the people in those states have really had the campaign engaged, seen both of the candidates, had a chance to take a good, hard look, are increasingly moving to John Kerry.
O'BRIEN: What kind of a role do you think this new Osama bin Laden tape will have in the election? Let me just read you a small chunk of it.
He ends by saying, "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Any nation that does not attack us will not be attacked."
Who do you think, or do you think any voters will be swayed any direction by this?
LOCKHART: I don't think any voter will. I mean, I think the one thing that John Kerry and the president can agree on is that this is our democracy. Tomorrow is our day, the American public's day. And, you know, a terrorist murder hiding in a cave someplace doesn't have a role in it.
And, you know, we have very clearly stated from John Kerry on down that we're going to talk about our issues on our timetable. And Osama bin Laden doesn't have -- doesn't get to play here.
O'BRIEN: Earlier this morning we spoke to Marc Racicot of the Bush campaign. Here's what he had to say after a question I asked him about the Osama bin Laden tape.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARC RACICOT, BUSH CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: We don't take polls to figure out how it is that the president ought to address international or foreign affairs, or the war on terror. I think the people in this country, I think that's a metaphor for the entire Kerry campaign, take a poll to figure out how you respond to the Osama bin Laden tape. At the end of the day, this president is principled and steady and strong, and I believe the good people of Ohio will recognize that in the end.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: He's talking about a democracy core poll that talked about essentially the same question that I just asked you about...
LOCKHART: Right.
O'BRIEN: ... what the impact will be on voters. Do you think what -- what Marc Racicot is raising has any kind of legs?
LOCKHART: Oh, listen, you know, I think it's just one of the last sounds of a desperate campaign that's failing. You know, we don't need to take polls to know how you deal with murderous thugs. You track them down, you kill them. And John Kerry will do that.
This guy's been out...
O'BRIEN: How?
LOCKHART: He'll do it a number of ways. One is, he has a proposal to double the number of special forces we have in our military, add 40,000 active duty troops with an eye towards terrorism, and get real international cooperation.
You know, I think that there's been a lot of smoke ginned up by the Republicans over what happened at Tora Bora. And you know that when they're furiously spinning there's something they're hiding.
You know, Dick Clarke, who was the president's counterterrorism guy, went on TV on Friday and said, "I was in the government. I know what happened at Tora Bora. John Kerry is right."
He slipped through our grasp. We didn't do everything we needed to do. We haven't done everything we've needed to do on terror because we spent a long time and distracted in Iraq, and that's now a mess, and creating more terrorists as the days go by. So these are the things the American public will have on their mind when they go to vote tomorrow, and that's why we're confident.
O'BRIEN: One of the big themes of Kerry's's campaign is this "Fresh Start." You see it in signs on the podium every time he speaks.
Is there some concern about that as a theme? Do you think Americans, while we're in the middle of a war on terror and a war in Iraq, are ready for a fresh start?
LOCKHART: Well, I think every -- I think people are. I think people, by and large, think that what's going on in Iraq is a mess. The president has made a series of misjudgments. He hasn't handled it well.
There was a terrible, terrible story on "60 Minutes" last night talking about the troops that are on the ground now who still, after two years, almost, don't have the body armor that they need. That people at home are raising money and sending them -- you know, sending body armor over to Iraq to try to protect their family members because this government won't do it.
So I think people think there's a need for a fresh start in Iraq. But even more, I think people need -- think there needs to be a fresh start on the economy, on health care.
This president has sided with the special interests, the powerful, the well-connected from day one. The middle class has been ignored. John Kerry's going to change that. And I think very much so people are looking for a fresh start.
O'BRIEN: Well, we should know within the next few hours or so.
LOCKHART: We will.
O'BRIEN: Joe Lockhart joining us this morning. Nice to see you, Joe. Thanks.
LOCKHART: Thanks.
O'BRIEN: CNN's election coverage -- night coverage comes to you live from the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square. For real-time election results on 96 TV screens, to a live town hall meeting, you can trust CNN to track the votes, the exit polls and the swing states and more. Our prime-time coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
HEMMER: Also, Soledad, if you're desperately trying to figure out who is best to win tomorrow, some odd election predictors for you. About five of them now. The outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game before the election correctly predicting the winner of every race since 1936. The Redskins lost yesterday. Did it in the end, as a matter of fact, so advantage Kerry there.
But hang on. Costume merchants say that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the man whose masks were most popular on Halloween. BuyCostumes.com says Bush outsells Kerry masks. So advantage for the president.
Now, since the advent of TV and presidential races, the taller candidate has won every single race except for two. In 1976, Jimmy Carter was taller than Gerald Ford but lost. In 2000, Al Gore was taller than Bush. He lost.
Kerry's about 6'4", maybe 6'5". Bush is 5'11". So advantage Senator Kerry.
And as a rule, rising hemlines -- I don't know where they get it -- rising hemlines have suggested that a Democrat will win, while longer skirts suggest a Republican in office. This year, designers say hemlines are up once again. So advantage Kerry.
You're saying what?
O'BRIEN: The pencil skirt is back. That's long. Below the knee. I'm just throwing it out there.
HEMMER: Undecided? Too close to call?
O'BRIEN: Undecided. Too close to call I think, Mr. Hemmer.
HEMMER: Consider that.
O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, coffee alone may not do much to raise your risk for heart disease, but a new study shows a dangerous combination with coffee could actually double it.
HEMMER: Also, the candidates hunting for those last votes as the clock ticks down. But there is one topic that appears to be off limits for discussion. We'll mention that.
O'BRIEN: And what happens to the electoral college if individual states start playing by separate rules? One state prepares to vote on an issue that could change those rules. We'll explain ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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HEMMER: With the election tomorrow, the battle for the battleground states in its final day today. And one of those states is New Mexico. The governor, Bill Richardson, a Democrat, live from Santa Fe this morning, back with us.
And Governor, good morning to you as we come down to the...
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D), NEW MEXICO: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: ... final last day. On the screen you can see the polling really goes for Senator Kerry, in some cases, and President Bush for others. I know you believe Senator Kerry will win your state, but tell me why you believe that based on early voting and things you're seeing today.
RICHARDSON: Well, three reasons, Bill. Number one, 140,000 new voters have registered in New Mexico since June. And Senator Kerry is ahead by 20 points with those voters, according to the polls that you just showed.
Secondly, a huge number of new Native American Indian voters, close to, for instance, 10,000 newly registered Navajos, who for the first time seem very determined. And then third, among the early voting and in-person voting, we're ahead by about 5-3. Despite the fact that we may be behind by 3 percent, those are very positive trends.
And then there are a lot of rural Native American voters that don't have phones. Not even cell phones. And I always estimate in all my races in New Mexico that we get one or two percent from that.
So I feel confident. I feel good that we'll win it very narrowly. I also feel good that in other western states, like Nevada, and in Colorado, although my friend Bill Owens may dispute it, that the momentum is very much with us.
HEMMER: We will get to Bill Owens in a moment here. Three hundred and sixty-six votes back in 2000, that's what decided your state in the column of Al Gore.
In the past few days, though, Dick Cheney has been in New Mexico. He talked about this Osama bin Laden tape. He also mentioned this, too, on the stump in Iowa. Listen to how he talked about the polling that was apparently done in some Democratic corners.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The thing that I find amazing about it is that John Kerry's first response was to go conduct a poll. He went out and went into the field with a public opinion poll to find out what he should say about this tape of Osama bin Laden. It was as though he didn't know what he believes until he has to go and check polls, stick his finger in the air, see which way the political winds are blowing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Governor, this is what Republicans say is the problem with John Kerry. How do you respond to Dick Cheney's words?
RICHARDSON: Well, that's false. The first response that Senator Kerry, when he learned of the tape, instead of playing politics and being partisan, what Senator Kerry said, "We're all Americans. We're behind killing and capturing these terrorists." That "We're a nation that is at war, and there are no Democrats, no Republicans today."
That was his first response. This is desperation. They're -- they know that the trend in each battleground state is not heading their way. And so they make these allegations and try to create the spin for the day and the news coverage of the day.
HEMMER: Governor, if I could, you call it desperation. Does not the appearance of Osama bin Laden on videotape help remind Americans about the war on terror? And if so, do you believe that favors the White House at this point?
RICHARDSON: Well, Bill, my view is that the American people have made decisions on how they're going to vote. It's now going to be turnout.
You know, I can turn around and tell you that if you look at it that way, the fact that you still see Osama bin Laden out there, it reminds you that he hasn't been captured. But we shouldn't play politics with that issue.
We should just gear ourselves to recognizing that this is our number one priority, the fight against terrorism. And that we should divert resources from Iraq and other parts of the world to Osama bin Laden, to North Korea, to Iran, that today said they're going to produce uranium enrichment. So again, Bill, we shouldn't play politics with that issue.
Right now it's turnout. Right now it's turnout. Who's going to be better at getting the votes out. And traditionally, Democrats have been better at that. Although Republicans have dramatically improved.
HEMMER: Thank you, Governor. Bill Richardson out in Santa Fe.
Want to talk about Colorado. You mentioned it. To Bill Owens, the Republican governor in the state of Colorado.
Governor, good morning and welcome back.
GOV. BILL OWENS (R), COLORADO: Good morning. Good to be with you.
HEMMER: I'll pick up on that same point that Governor Richardson is talking about. Is the presence of Osama bin Laden reminding Americans that he is still out there, still on the run and still alive, which goes against the war on terror from the beginning? Remember, wanted dead or alive in the days after 9/11.
OWENS: Well, I think it is indicative that the only thing that he's been able to do to us directly is send us videotapes. And I think it's also important to remember that today the leaders of Afghanistan, who harbored these terrorists back on September 11, are no longer in power.
Afghanistan has just held its first Democratic elections in 5,000 years. And the same is true in Iraq. We're making tremendous progress removing that particular harborer of terrorists. So I think the world is safer. We're all united in the fact that we want to get Osama bin Laden. But I think it's also clear what Osama bin Laden was trying to do to this American electorate as we approach November 2 with his warning and with his videotape.
HEMMER: Let's take what you're saying and apply it to the people in your state now. And let's talk about this amendment known as number 36, that may actually, if it passes, split the electoral college turnout in your state. At this point, do you believe this initiative will pass tomorrow?
OWENS: You know, Bill, I don't. Three or four weeks ago it was ahead by about 20 points. Today it's behind in the polls.
This amendment was put on our ballot in Colorado by a gentleman who's a John Kerry backer. He's put more than a million dollars into this effort. He now happens to reside in Brazil. Coloradoans have seen it for what it is, which is an attempt to divide our electoral votes, change them from nine votes for -- for George Bush, to five votes for George Bush, four for John Kerry.
HEMMER: Take it just a step further, though. Why are you suggesting, though, that the public has changed side on this?
OWENS: You know, it's changed because I think Coloradoans now understand more of what the underlying motive was. We also -- every newspaper in the state has come out against this.
As Bill Richardson and I have pointed out earlier, this would really weaken small western states. We don't have a lot of electoral votes to begin with. If we started dividing them, it reduces our ability substantially to get a fair shake from our friends in Washington, D.C.
HEMMER: You know the Kerry campaign believes it has a pretty good shot at winning your state tomorrow. How close is it in Colorado today?
OWENS: You know, I don't believe it's close anymore. We never took this state for granted on the Bush side of the equation.
Polling over the weekend in both of the major newspapers, "The Denver Post," "Rocky Mountain News," showed this race at plus six and plus seven for George Bush. So we're optimistic that -- that George Bush is doing very well in Colorado, indeed.
HEMMER: We shall find out tomorrow. Thank you, Governor.
OWENS: You bet.
HEMMER: Bill Owens there in Colorado this morning.
A break here in a moment. On the eve of the election, back to the scene of so much controversy four years ago. Seems there's still plenty to talk about again in Florida. This time we'll tell you what that is all about as we continue after this. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, if George Bush wants to make national security the central issue of the campaign of 2004, I have three words for him that I know he understands: bring it on.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Do you remember that moment?
HEMMER: It seems like it was years ago, doesn't it?
O'BRIEN: On the campaign -- it does start feeling it was many, many years ago. But no, it was just this summer.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: It's like trying to look back and remember all the times you've been to the dentist looking at these. I mean, it's just, you know -- good morning.
O'BRIEN: Getting painful?
CAFFERTY: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Good morning to you.
CAFFERTY: Good morning.
HEMMER: Good morning.
CAFFERTY: We've been talking about the tape of Osama bin Laden that surfaced last Friday. The candidates firing accusations at each other over who loses more as a result of bin Laden's message.
William Safire in "The Times" this morning suggests the tape shows it's bin Laden who has lost the most. Safire says, "Generals don't call for a truce when they're winning."
The day before the election, though, the political fallout from the tape remains unknown. The question is this: Did the Osama bin Laden tape change the way you view the election?
Tom in Alma, West Virginia, "OBL didn't have anything new to say. He only hurts Arabs everywhere. I doubt he'll change many votes. I can't believe that was his purpose. I think he was trying to prove to his own mindless followers that he's still alive."
Laura in New York, "Yes, it did. The tape had a desperate quality to it and showed bin Laden for the pathetic creature that he is. I credit Mr. Bush for that, and am willing to give him the opportunity to send Osama to paradise."
Somebody who signed their note "The Wizard," writes, "Yes, Bush and Rumsfeld have been telling the Osama is hiding in a cave. Looks to me like he's staying at the Saudi Four Seasons. Maybe they should look up his room number if they want to find him or look in the telephone book."
He does look rather well scrubbed there, doesn't he?
And Neil in New Orleans, Louisiana, "His conciliatory tone sounds to me like he's thoughtfully looking ahead to the 2008 election, anticipating that Arnold Schwarzenegger will successfully overturn the restriction requiring presidents to be natural born citizens. Bin Laden will run for president of the United States as the nominee of the reformed terrorists party."
HEMMER: You were talking about October surprises last week? That was one of them.
CAFFERTY: Well, yes, wasn't it? I guess.
HEMMER: Yes. By the way, congratulations to you.
CAFFERTY: For what?
HEMMER: You and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) went out on a limb. You said the Patriots were going to lose this weekend.
CAFFERTY: To Pittsburgh.
HEMMER: To Pittsburgh, and they did. The Steelers beat them at home, in fact. Ben Roethlisberger, the rookie quarterback.
CAFFERTY: He's pretty impressive.
HEMMER: Yes, he is. Out of Miami of Ohio, by the way.
CAFFERTY: The guy who caught these two passes ain't no chopped liver either.
HEMMER: Ended New England's 21-game winning streak. The longest in NFL history, in fact.
Steelers scored 21 points in the first quarter. Beat them 34-20 the final.
Pittsburgh looked really, really good at home. Eighteen straight wins was the old record. Regular season, had not lost since September of 2003. It's all over. And this guy right here...
CAFFERTY: Do you think Bill Cowher smiled after the game was over?
HEMMER: He's got some facial expressions that go a day long, don't you think?
CAFFERTY: Boy, he looks just mean.
HEMMER: Oh, yes, when he gets that scowl. Yes.
In a moment here, your Monday morning edition of "90-Second Pop" rolls your way.
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(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER (voice-over): You saw the Ashlee Simpson lip-synching fiasco on "SNL." But that was not her first problem of the night.
Plus, how R. Kelly did his best Ashlee Simpson impression on tour.
That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
Sill to come, if you have to have your daily cup of joe you better not combine it with another addictive habit. Alarming new study on heart disease.
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