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American Morning
Campaigning on the Razor's Edge; Terror in Israel
Aired November 01, 2004 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Campaigning on the razor's edge. With just one day to go, the presidential race is now almost dead even.
Terror in Israel -- a suicide bomber strikes at a popular Tel Aviv market.
A desperate rescue in Alabama after an 18 month old baby is trapped in a well.
And prosecutors trying to pull it together as closing arguments begin in the Peterson trial on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Soledad O'Brien and Bill Hemmer.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone.
8:00 here in New York.
The final grains of sand now draining out of that political hourglass, huh? You can almost feel it ticking down right now. The campaign in its final day today. We'll look at where the candidates are going to get out the final quest for votes.
Also, Jeff Greenfield looking at how effective each candidate would be if elected, George Bush for a second term, Senator Kerry the first time. And we'll get to that this hour.
O'BRIEN: Also, the physical toll of a presidential campaign. We're going to take a look at how the candidates handle the incredible emotional strain, as well as all the wear and tear of the grueling campaign schedule.
HEMMER: And, boy, they are traveling today.
O'BRIEN: You see that map today for President Bush?
HEMMER: My gosh!
O'BRIEN: All over the place.
HEMMER: In state after state after state.
O'BRIEN: Texas and Iowa and Wisconsin.
HEMMER: They're going. One final day. Here's Jack Cafferty again on a Monday -- good morning.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Does he get to fly around in Air Force One when he makes all those stops?
HEMMER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Yes, he does, as a matter of fact.
CAFFERTY: So what -- well, how grueling can it be?
HEMMER: It's like luxury, huh?
O'BRIEN: Well, I mean that's a lot of stops. Even if you get to go on a very cushy flight.
CAFFERTY: Coming up in the "Cafferty File," which dead people make the most money? And we'll tell you what the three secret alternative endings are to the HBO series "Sex and the City."
Things to look forward to.
HEMMER: A, B and C.
CAFFERTY: My producer, Casey Fisher, insists that's a very important story.
O'BRIEN: I was going to say...
CAFFERTY: I've never seen "Sex and the City," she says oh, no, we've got to do this...
O'BRIEN: I was just about to ask you.
CAFFERTY: It's very important.
O'BRIEN: Did you insist that story was in on this, because you're such a big fan of that show?
CAFFERTY: Well, no, I've never seen it.
O'BRIEN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: No. Casey is the driving force behind that. So if...
O'BRIEN: You go, girl.
CAFFERTY: If you don't like the story, you can write to her. Please don't bother me about it.
O'BRIEN: Duly noted, Jack.
CAFFERTY: There you go.
O'BRIEN: Thank you.
Time to check the top stories now.
Heidi Collins at the news desk -- good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, guys.
And good morning, everyone.
Now in the news this morning, a suicide bomber struck in Tel Aviv less than four hours ago, killing at least three Israelis.
CNN's Matthew Chance is live on the scene in Tel Aviv now with the very latest for us this morning -- Matthew, hello.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Heidi, hello to you, as well.
It's been just three and a half hours since that 18-year-old Palestinian suicide bomber came into this very crowded shopping district, this open air market in the southern part of the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, detonating his explosives around the crowded fruit and vegetables and outside apparently a shop that sells cheese and olives, causing a great deal of destruction. The latest casualty figures we have coming to us from police and hospital officials say that the rescue workers on the scene recovered at least four bodies, one of which they believed to be that of the suicide bomber.
About 34 other people are also said to have been injured, some of them very seriously, in this pretty devastating suicide attack, again, on this marketplace. You can see, though, from the scene behind me the emergency workers have now left the body parts, the injured and, of course, the dead, have been taken away from the scene. It's extraordinary the speed at which the Israeli security forces and emergency workers can clear these areas after such a terrible bomb attack -- Heidi.
COLLINS: An experience there, unfortunately, that they do have.
Matthew Chance, thanks so much for that this morning.
Thousands of U.S. troops are heading to Baghdad. The boost will push the American presence in Iraq to its highest since last summer. Meanwhile, authorities are investigating the shooting of a top Iraqi official. Baghdad's deputy governor was gunned down earlier today. And Iraq's interim minister, Iyad Allawi, is warning insurgents he may authorize military action in Falluja. Allawi said yesterday the window for peaceful settlement is closing.
There is word Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition may be improving. Arafat is undergoing a fourth day of treatment at a Paris military hospital. Palestinian officials say a medical report on his condition could be released as early as tomorrow.
And an 18 month old baby is alive and safe in Alabama after being trapped in an 18 foot well. Rescuers freed the child just about 20 minutes ago, after the baby fell down the well last night in Frisco City. We see there now a little boy, very dirty and scared, but OK.
HEMMER: Wow!
COLLINS: Which was the best news of all.
HEMMER: Yes, wonderful news.
Thank you, Heidi.
Too close to call, that's what the polling says. CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup's final poll before Election Day has George Bush and John Kerry in a dead heat. 49 percent of likely voters polled plan to vote for the president, 47 for Senator Kerry. It gets even tighter, though, because Gallup estimates that the undecideds will go for John Kerry over President Bush two to one, putting each candidate, then at 49 percent apiece. And to add one more variable, 9 percent of those surveyed could still change their minds.
Not since the folks at Gallup started these surveys back in 1936 at the presidential level has the final survey taken before the race for the White House actually been tied. That's where we are now in 2004.
Team Kerry visits a number of battleground states today, part of a last minute push to win support.
Let's start this hour with Kelly Wallace, traveling with Senator Kerry in Orlando -- good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning again, Bill.
Well, aides here are feeling very good. At the same time, though, they are acknowledging states remain very, very close. And no surprise. That is where the senator is spending his time on this final day. It will be an 18 hour, six stop, four state day for Senator Kerry, beginning here in Orlando, Florida. He'll be attending church services since it is All Saints Day. Then he is off to Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and then back to Wisconsin to overnight.
Kerry's aides say the strategy, they believe that undecided voters have pretty much processed all they can process about the new Osama bin Laden tape, about the latest developments in Iraq. But they believe these voters still want to hear more from the candidates about what they will do over the next four years when it comes to domestic issues affecting middle class Americans. So aides say that is what we are going to hear Senator Kerry continue to focus on in this final day.
The senator coming back to the press plane, press cabin on his press plane yesterday, a rare and brief appearance by the senator, part of a move by the campaign to show the candidate is relaxed and feeling very confident. And aides say this confidence is coming from polling, both outside and their own polling that they are seeing, and also reports from the field, Bill.
They say they have identified the voters they need to win. Now they just need to turn them out tomorrow -- Bill.
HEMMER: All right, Kelly Wallace thanks for that report in Florida.
The president, meanwhile, focusing the final hours of his campaign in the State of Ohio. That's the first stop, anyway, today.
And Suzanne Malveaux is live in Wilmington, Ohio -- good morning, there.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Well, really, it's just 8:00 and already he had completed his first event here in Wilmington, Ohio. This is going to be a grueling day for the president, as we saw him. He looked rather subdued, some even say a bit tired. But I talked to his top aides, who say that he is relaxed, that he is also confident in the next 24 hours what is about to unfold. The president, of course, making stops at seven cities and six states when it's all said and done. The sprint to the finish today including not only Wilmington, Ohio, but also Burgettstown, Pennsylvania; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa; Sioux City, Iowa; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Dallas, Texas; overnighting at his Crawford ranch.
I spoke with his aides in Iowa. It's expected that his daughters will join him, as well as the first lady. The whole family will be there. Later, in a Texas rally, those aides say they expect you will see a very emotional president. Many of the campaigners, already, they say, feeling nostalgic, looking back at this, not even knowing what the results are going to be.
Now, what we've been told is that the president, of course, tomorrow is going to vote in Crawford, Texas and then he is likely to make at least one stop to do a kind of get out the vote effort when he heads back, before he heads back to Washington. And that, of course, is the fate in the voters' hands -- Bill.
HEMMER: It all comes out to voter turnout tomorrow, too.
Suzanne, thanks.
Suzanne Malveaux in Wilmington, Ohio, the first stop of the day -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, in just about 40 hours, or maybe it'll be 40 days, we will know who the president will be. But here's the real question. What can the president, whoever is chosen, what can they really do once they're in office?
Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield has got some thoughts on that.
Let's call this the "Big If" segment. If John Kerry walks away with a victory, what's he going to do? What can he do?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, let's think about this. On domestic matters, Kerry is going to find it almost impossible to get his big programs through. Take the rollback on tax cuts for the wealthy. Bill Clinton, in 1993, could barely get a tax hike increase for the 1 percent most affluent, and he had huge Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. He got by with one vote in both houses. With a likely Republican House and a split Senate, how does Kerry get that through?
Or look at health care. His big proposal on catastrophic health care is to have the government take it off the back of employers. Now, business, normally Republican businesspeople might like that. But it's really questionable about whether the Republicans will give him a big political victory in his first year.
Now, what he can do is things where a president can take executive action. He can, on embryonic stem cell research, change the policy. He can relax rules on helping family planning agencies, which some -- which encourage or promote or even talk about abortion. He can turn the government more to labor than to business.
And if you look at foreign affairs, he's clearly more internationalist in his rhetoric than George W. Bush. But is any country going to help the new president, Kerry, if there is one, by sending troops to Iraq? He's going to inherit that troubled policy. And on the diciest matters -- North Korea and Iran moving toward nuclear weapons, the Middle East -- there's just no easy way. It's not like Reagan and the cold war, where he could really change policy from what Jimmy Carter did.
Jimmy -- John Kerry is going to find himself substantially boxed in.
O'BRIEN: If President Bush is reelected, flesh out for me what his second term would look like.
GREENFIELD: Well, there is a history here that most presidents have a much rougher time in second terms than first. It's just the way it is. And there's no reason to believe this will be different.
On spending, a lot of conservatives are very angry with Bush for never having vetoed any spending bill, for putting through a big prescription drug program, farm subsidies. And there's a $400 billion deficit right now and you will see deficit hawks, especially in the Senate, go very hard at a second Bush administration if there isn't some limit on spending, people like John McCain and Chuck Grassley, Pete Domenici.
And if the pessimists are right, that they're -- that these deficits are going to trigger higher interest rates and serious economic consequences in the real world, where we live, that's the Republicans that are going to feel the political heat.
Now, international matters, I found this really interesting. One of the most prominent Republicans that there is told me recently we're not going to do anything to help John Kerry up until November 2, but the day after the election, we're going to start coming down really hard on all the mistakes that the president made in Iraq.
So I think you're going to find increased trouble on the Republican side if Iraq looks like what Donald Rumsfeld once called a long, hard slog.
So you almost think that whoever wins might be demanding a recount...
O'BRIEN: Because the other guy...
GREENFIELD: Yes, something tells me they'll take the job with all of this, though.
O'BRIEN: Can I ask for a prediction? Do you think it's over on Wednesday? I know you hate predictions, but I'm going to ask anyway.
GREENFIELD: No, I mean a 20 second point about this. If 110 million people vote and it comes down to a few tens of thousands of voters in 10 states, I really think people who make predictions are being silly. It's like saying which way is this going to fall, a pencil or a piece of paper? Look, it stayed up. There you go. Now, there's the answer.
O'BRIEN: A metaphor...
GREENFIELD: I mean I didn't even plan that...
O'BRIEN: ... for tomorrow, I believe.
GREENFIELD: We will not know Wednesday morning. Fine. Forget the Redskins. This was the symbol. I couldn't even make the damn thing fall.
O'BRIEN: The Jeff Greenfield predictor. That's a new one. We're going to keep that.
GREENFIELD: All right.
O'BRIEN: Jeff Greenfield, as always...
GREENFIELD: Remember this, folks, Wednesday morning.
O'BRIEN: I like it. Now it's not going to work. Oh, there it goes.
Thanks, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: All right.
O'BRIEN: CNN's Election Night coverage comes to you live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square, from real time election results on 96 TV screens to a live town hall meeting, our prime time coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time -- Bill.
HEMMER: I'll save the tape on that one, Jeff.
Also, both campaigns making every possible pitch to swing the undecided, invoking the national pastime, as well. Fresh off their first Wall Street victory in 86 years, the Boston Red Sox management team endorsed Sox fan Senator John Kerry for president, stumping with him in the State of New Hampshire. Not to be outdone, the Bush campaign sent out an automated phone message from Boston pitcher Curt Schilling, a Bush supporter, to try and woo voters in the Northeast.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CURT SCHILLING, BOSTON RED SOX PITCHER: Hello, this is Curt Schilling of the world champion Boston Red Sox. That sounds good, doesn't it? Well, I'm calling on behalf of President Bush. These past couple of weeks, Sox fans all throughout New England trusted me when it was my turn on the mound. Now you can trust me on this. President Bush is the right leader for our country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: That was Curt Schilling, by way of telephone message. Also, stumping with the president today. Here's another sports note. The Redskins lost yesterday. History predicts that means a victory for Senator Kerry. The outcome of last -- the last Redskins home football game before the election has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since 1936. So if you believe it, there you have it.
Green Bay wins. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Here's Chad again at the CNN Center watching the weather and the forecast for tomorrow, which we know always affects voter turnout as well.
How are you doing Chad? -- good morning.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Bill.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: In a moment, if you want to know who your neighbor is voting for, have you heard this?
O'BRIEN: No.
HEMMER: Look in their driveway. We'll explain that in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: I don't have a driveway.
Also ahead this morning, how a federal judge in New Jersey could affect the bitter battle for votes in Ohio. Jeff Toobin explains the fight in that key swing state.
HEMMER: Also, are the Palestinians ready to move on in a post- Arafat era? A look at what his government is doing now in his absence, in a moment here, as AMERICAN MORNING continues live in New York City, on a beautiful fall morning after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat will undergo more exams today at a military hospital in Paris. Officials within Arafat's government say the 75-year-old is getting better and leukemia has been ruled out. But with his recent health problems, many are thinking about life after Arafat.
CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney is live from Paris now with the very latest -- good morning.
FIONNUALA SWEENEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, good afternoon, Soledad, from Paris.
Yes, in the hospital here behind me, Yasser Arafat has been since Friday, as you say, undergoing further medical tests. We do know that today he managed to eat some food and by all accounts is in better spirits than he has been. And we also know that from his hospital bed, he condemned the bombing in Tel Aviv, which took place a number of hours ago.
But as you say, there are still medical tests going on, still no firm diagnosis. But we understand that the Palestinian Authority president is feeling better than he has done over the past two weeks.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
SWEENEY (voice-over): Day four and still no definitive news. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat remains at the Percy Military Hospital in Paris while a team of doctors tries to determine what ails him. A sudden deterioration in his health last week at his Ramallah compound resulted in his leaving the West Bank for the first time in almost three years.
Under virtual house arrest during that time, the Israeli authorities, saying the 75-year-old Palestinian Authority president was being allowed to leave on humanitarian grounds, adding there were no preconditions for his return.
In his absence, the Palestinian leadership determined to show the world it is business as usual.
Leader of the Palestinians since 1969, Yasser Arafat has never appointed a successor. In his absence, day to day running of the Palestinian Authority rests with two men, former prime minister and deputy chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Mahmoud Abbas, and the current prime minister, Ahmed Qureia.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
SWEENEY: So a sense of suspended animation here in Paris pending that diagnosis from doctors on Yasser Arafat's condition. That is expected some time on Wednesday. A sense of animation, suspended animation, too, in the West Bank and Gaza, as Palestinian leaders try to display unity, sensing that whatever the diagnosis, the time may have come to consider a future without Yasser Arafat -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Fionnuala Sweeney for us in Paris this morning.
Fionnuala, thanks -- Bill. HEMMER: Let's get a break here, Soledad.
In a moment, it is grueling on the campaign trail, so how do the men fight off exhaustion on the stump? It turns out by following some tips you can use, as well. We'll get a check of that when we continue in a moment here.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm honored by your support and I accept your nomination for president of the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: The road to the election -- that was President Bush, of course, at the Republican national convention, accepting the nomination as candidate for the Republican Party, one of the critical events that's happened to take us where we are today.
HEMMER: Yes.
He got a big bump out of that convention, too, and since then the polling, anyway, shows a much tighter race. What, too close to call? How many times have we said that, a hundred, in the past five days?
O'BRIEN: A hundred...
(CROSSTALK)
CAFFERTY: The only thing we say more often than too close to call is good morning.
Sometime I'm going to count how many times we say good morning in the three hours. It's a lot.
O'BRIEN: Yes, but that's not a bad thing, good morning.
CAFFERTY: I didn't say it was a bad thing, I just said we said it a lot.
O'BRIEN: We do.
CAFFERTY: There was no...
HEMMER: This is Jack Cafferty.
Good morning -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: There you go again.
O'BRIEN: Good morning.
CAFFERTY: With one day before the election, the candidates are accusing each other now over who loses more as a result of that Osama bin Laden tape that came out last week. Bill Safire in a "New York Times" op-ed this morning suggests the tape shows that it's bin Laden himself who has the most to lose. Safire says the tape is conciliatory and he says, "Generals do not call for a truce when they're winning."
On the eve of the election, the extent of the political fallout from that tape remains unknown.
The question is this, did the tape change the way you view the election?
We're getting a lot of pretty good stuff here in the way of responses.
Steve in Lexington, Kentucky: "I think bin Laden's intent is nothing other than to psyche us out, to make us second guess who we vote for and why we voted the way we did. If we're talking about him and his effect on the election, then he's won the battle. Thanks, Jack, for playing right into his hands. Way to go."
You're welcome.
Ken in Cahokia, Illinois: "Yes, Osama bin Laden's alive and well and plotting terror three and a half years after 9/11. President Bush has not captured him and now I will vote to give someone else a try."
On the Green Bay Packer/Washington Redskins game: "America owes the Redskins a debt of gratitude for throwing the game. We were in such a dither, but the Redskins were decisive, losing by half the Green Bay score. I hope we'll see John Kerry rename the Washington Monument Mark Brunell Monument. Let's see a little gratitude here."
And finally, Dean in Marlton, New Jersey says on the bin Laden tape: "No, but while we're on the subject, I thought he was lip syncing."
HEMMER: Funny stuff.
CAFFERTY: Right.
HEMMER: "Saturday Night Live" had some fun with this, too.
Here's their take on the Osama bin Laden tape from this past weekend.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE," COURTESY NBC/BROADWAY VIDEO)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Over the last several months, I have been approached repeatedly by representatives of both candidates, who have asked me if I would please endorse their opponent. But I have refused to do this. First, because, frankly, I find this request sort of insulting, which it really is, if you think about it, especially coming from Bush, who has not shown the least bit of interest in me since he invaded Iraq. For a time, I feared that I would not be eligible to vote in this election. But recently, praise Allah, I was tracked down by two volunteers from the Kerry camp. They signed me...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: I thought that was funny.
HEMMER: We missed the punch line. He goes on to say they've registered me in Cincinnati. Just in fun, Saturday night.
Let's get a break here.
In a moment, from Pennsylvania...
CAFFERTY: No, it's not...
HEMMER: What's that, buddy?
CAFFERTY: It wasn't that funny.
HEMMER: Yes, well...
CAFFERTY: It wasn't that funny.
O'BRIEN: Save it for the next half hour.
HEMMER: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) dumped out too soon.
CAFFERTY: Lame.
HEMMER: The problems in Pennsylvania. Technology supposed to make things a lot easier this time around. Officials there say it's actually making it worse. We'll explain in a moment after this on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Good morning, everyone.
8:30 here in New York.
Good to have you along with us today.
A day to go, right?
O'BRIEN: Um-hmm. And counting.
HEMMER: We're talking about it time and time again. A potentially important court ruling already in the State of Ohio. Campaign workers there will not be allowed to challenge the eligibility of voters when they arrive at the polling stations. Jeff Toobin stops by and talks about how important this ruling may or may not be and what both sides are trying to get out of it. So we'll talk to Jeff in a moment on that.
O'BRIEN: Also this morning, candidates' tested on their policies, their past, their character. And one of the biggest tests is their stamina during a grueling campaign schedule. Elizabeth Cohen takes a look at how the candidates are able to keep it together on the road.
HEMMER: Both men are in pretty good shape.
O'BRIEN: Yes, you'd better be.
HEMMER: They did that at home -- yes, you're exactly right about that.
Heidi Collins also with us today -- good morning again, Heidi, with the headlines now.
COLLINS: And good morning to you.
Straight to the Middle East this morning, guys.
Good morning to you, everybody.
Now in the news, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat is urging a revival of peace talks in the Middle East despite a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv some four hours ago. At least three people are dead. Dozens of others are wounded. Palestinian sources say a militant group known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has claimed responsibility for the attack.
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Aired November 1, 2004 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Campaigning on the razor's edge. With just one day to go, the presidential race is now almost dead even.
Terror in Israel -- a suicide bomber strikes at a popular Tel Aviv market.
A desperate rescue in Alabama after an 18 month old baby is trapped in a well.
And prosecutors trying to pull it together as closing arguments begin in the Peterson trial on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Soledad O'Brien and Bill Hemmer.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone.
8:00 here in New York.
The final grains of sand now draining out of that political hourglass, huh? You can almost feel it ticking down right now. The campaign in its final day today. We'll look at where the candidates are going to get out the final quest for votes.
Also, Jeff Greenfield looking at how effective each candidate would be if elected, George Bush for a second term, Senator Kerry the first time. And we'll get to that this hour.
O'BRIEN: Also, the physical toll of a presidential campaign. We're going to take a look at how the candidates handle the incredible emotional strain, as well as all the wear and tear of the grueling campaign schedule.
HEMMER: And, boy, they are traveling today.
O'BRIEN: You see that map today for President Bush?
HEMMER: My gosh!
O'BRIEN: All over the place.
HEMMER: In state after state after state.
O'BRIEN: Texas and Iowa and Wisconsin.
HEMMER: They're going. One final day. Here's Jack Cafferty again on a Monday -- good morning.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Does he get to fly around in Air Force One when he makes all those stops?
HEMMER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Yes, he does, as a matter of fact.
CAFFERTY: So what -- well, how grueling can it be?
HEMMER: It's like luxury, huh?
O'BRIEN: Well, I mean that's a lot of stops. Even if you get to go on a very cushy flight.
CAFFERTY: Coming up in the "Cafferty File," which dead people make the most money? And we'll tell you what the three secret alternative endings are to the HBO series "Sex and the City."
Things to look forward to.
HEMMER: A, B and C.
CAFFERTY: My producer, Casey Fisher, insists that's a very important story.
O'BRIEN: I was going to say...
CAFFERTY: I've never seen "Sex and the City," she says oh, no, we've got to do this...
O'BRIEN: I was just about to ask you.
CAFFERTY: It's very important.
O'BRIEN: Did you insist that story was in on this, because you're such a big fan of that show?
CAFFERTY: Well, no, I've never seen it.
O'BRIEN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: No. Casey is the driving force behind that. So if...
O'BRIEN: You go, girl.
CAFFERTY: If you don't like the story, you can write to her. Please don't bother me about it.
O'BRIEN: Duly noted, Jack.
CAFFERTY: There you go.
O'BRIEN: Thank you.
Time to check the top stories now.
Heidi Collins at the news desk -- good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, guys.
And good morning, everyone.
Now in the news this morning, a suicide bomber struck in Tel Aviv less than four hours ago, killing at least three Israelis.
CNN's Matthew Chance is live on the scene in Tel Aviv now with the very latest for us this morning -- Matthew, hello.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Heidi, hello to you, as well.
It's been just three and a half hours since that 18-year-old Palestinian suicide bomber came into this very crowded shopping district, this open air market in the southern part of the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, detonating his explosives around the crowded fruit and vegetables and outside apparently a shop that sells cheese and olives, causing a great deal of destruction. The latest casualty figures we have coming to us from police and hospital officials say that the rescue workers on the scene recovered at least four bodies, one of which they believed to be that of the suicide bomber.
About 34 other people are also said to have been injured, some of them very seriously, in this pretty devastating suicide attack, again, on this marketplace. You can see, though, from the scene behind me the emergency workers have now left the body parts, the injured and, of course, the dead, have been taken away from the scene. It's extraordinary the speed at which the Israeli security forces and emergency workers can clear these areas after such a terrible bomb attack -- Heidi.
COLLINS: An experience there, unfortunately, that they do have.
Matthew Chance, thanks so much for that this morning.
Thousands of U.S. troops are heading to Baghdad. The boost will push the American presence in Iraq to its highest since last summer. Meanwhile, authorities are investigating the shooting of a top Iraqi official. Baghdad's deputy governor was gunned down earlier today. And Iraq's interim minister, Iyad Allawi, is warning insurgents he may authorize military action in Falluja. Allawi said yesterday the window for peaceful settlement is closing.
There is word Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition may be improving. Arafat is undergoing a fourth day of treatment at a Paris military hospital. Palestinian officials say a medical report on his condition could be released as early as tomorrow.
And an 18 month old baby is alive and safe in Alabama after being trapped in an 18 foot well. Rescuers freed the child just about 20 minutes ago, after the baby fell down the well last night in Frisco City. We see there now a little boy, very dirty and scared, but OK.
HEMMER: Wow!
COLLINS: Which was the best news of all.
HEMMER: Yes, wonderful news.
Thank you, Heidi.
Too close to call, that's what the polling says. CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup's final poll before Election Day has George Bush and John Kerry in a dead heat. 49 percent of likely voters polled plan to vote for the president, 47 for Senator Kerry. It gets even tighter, though, because Gallup estimates that the undecideds will go for John Kerry over President Bush two to one, putting each candidate, then at 49 percent apiece. And to add one more variable, 9 percent of those surveyed could still change their minds.
Not since the folks at Gallup started these surveys back in 1936 at the presidential level has the final survey taken before the race for the White House actually been tied. That's where we are now in 2004.
Team Kerry visits a number of battleground states today, part of a last minute push to win support.
Let's start this hour with Kelly Wallace, traveling with Senator Kerry in Orlando -- good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning again, Bill.
Well, aides here are feeling very good. At the same time, though, they are acknowledging states remain very, very close. And no surprise. That is where the senator is spending his time on this final day. It will be an 18 hour, six stop, four state day for Senator Kerry, beginning here in Orlando, Florida. He'll be attending church services since it is All Saints Day. Then he is off to Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and then back to Wisconsin to overnight.
Kerry's aides say the strategy, they believe that undecided voters have pretty much processed all they can process about the new Osama bin Laden tape, about the latest developments in Iraq. But they believe these voters still want to hear more from the candidates about what they will do over the next four years when it comes to domestic issues affecting middle class Americans. So aides say that is what we are going to hear Senator Kerry continue to focus on in this final day.
The senator coming back to the press plane, press cabin on his press plane yesterday, a rare and brief appearance by the senator, part of a move by the campaign to show the candidate is relaxed and feeling very confident. And aides say this confidence is coming from polling, both outside and their own polling that they are seeing, and also reports from the field, Bill.
They say they have identified the voters they need to win. Now they just need to turn them out tomorrow -- Bill.
HEMMER: All right, Kelly Wallace thanks for that report in Florida.
The president, meanwhile, focusing the final hours of his campaign in the State of Ohio. That's the first stop, anyway, today.
And Suzanne Malveaux is live in Wilmington, Ohio -- good morning, there.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
Well, really, it's just 8:00 and already he had completed his first event here in Wilmington, Ohio. This is going to be a grueling day for the president, as we saw him. He looked rather subdued, some even say a bit tired. But I talked to his top aides, who say that he is relaxed, that he is also confident in the next 24 hours what is about to unfold. The president, of course, making stops at seven cities and six states when it's all said and done. The sprint to the finish today including not only Wilmington, Ohio, but also Burgettstown, Pennsylvania; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa; Sioux City, Iowa; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Dallas, Texas; overnighting at his Crawford ranch.
I spoke with his aides in Iowa. It's expected that his daughters will join him, as well as the first lady. The whole family will be there. Later, in a Texas rally, those aides say they expect you will see a very emotional president. Many of the campaigners, already, they say, feeling nostalgic, looking back at this, not even knowing what the results are going to be.
Now, what we've been told is that the president, of course, tomorrow is going to vote in Crawford, Texas and then he is likely to make at least one stop to do a kind of get out the vote effort when he heads back, before he heads back to Washington. And that, of course, is the fate in the voters' hands -- Bill.
HEMMER: It all comes out to voter turnout tomorrow, too.
Suzanne, thanks.
Suzanne Malveaux in Wilmington, Ohio, the first stop of the day -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, in just about 40 hours, or maybe it'll be 40 days, we will know who the president will be. But here's the real question. What can the president, whoever is chosen, what can they really do once they're in office?
Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield has got some thoughts on that.
Let's call this the "Big If" segment. If John Kerry walks away with a victory, what's he going to do? What can he do?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, let's think about this. On domestic matters, Kerry is going to find it almost impossible to get his big programs through. Take the rollback on tax cuts for the wealthy. Bill Clinton, in 1993, could barely get a tax hike increase for the 1 percent most affluent, and he had huge Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. He got by with one vote in both houses. With a likely Republican House and a split Senate, how does Kerry get that through?
Or look at health care. His big proposal on catastrophic health care is to have the government take it off the back of employers. Now, business, normally Republican businesspeople might like that. But it's really questionable about whether the Republicans will give him a big political victory in his first year.
Now, what he can do is things where a president can take executive action. He can, on embryonic stem cell research, change the policy. He can relax rules on helping family planning agencies, which some -- which encourage or promote or even talk about abortion. He can turn the government more to labor than to business.
And if you look at foreign affairs, he's clearly more internationalist in his rhetoric than George W. Bush. But is any country going to help the new president, Kerry, if there is one, by sending troops to Iraq? He's going to inherit that troubled policy. And on the diciest matters -- North Korea and Iran moving toward nuclear weapons, the Middle East -- there's just no easy way. It's not like Reagan and the cold war, where he could really change policy from what Jimmy Carter did.
Jimmy -- John Kerry is going to find himself substantially boxed in.
O'BRIEN: If President Bush is reelected, flesh out for me what his second term would look like.
GREENFIELD: Well, there is a history here that most presidents have a much rougher time in second terms than first. It's just the way it is. And there's no reason to believe this will be different.
On spending, a lot of conservatives are very angry with Bush for never having vetoed any spending bill, for putting through a big prescription drug program, farm subsidies. And there's a $400 billion deficit right now and you will see deficit hawks, especially in the Senate, go very hard at a second Bush administration if there isn't some limit on spending, people like John McCain and Chuck Grassley, Pete Domenici.
And if the pessimists are right, that they're -- that these deficits are going to trigger higher interest rates and serious economic consequences in the real world, where we live, that's the Republicans that are going to feel the political heat.
Now, international matters, I found this really interesting. One of the most prominent Republicans that there is told me recently we're not going to do anything to help John Kerry up until November 2, but the day after the election, we're going to start coming down really hard on all the mistakes that the president made in Iraq.
So I think you're going to find increased trouble on the Republican side if Iraq looks like what Donald Rumsfeld once called a long, hard slog.
So you almost think that whoever wins might be demanding a recount...
O'BRIEN: Because the other guy...
GREENFIELD: Yes, something tells me they'll take the job with all of this, though.
O'BRIEN: Can I ask for a prediction? Do you think it's over on Wednesday? I know you hate predictions, but I'm going to ask anyway.
GREENFIELD: No, I mean a 20 second point about this. If 110 million people vote and it comes down to a few tens of thousands of voters in 10 states, I really think people who make predictions are being silly. It's like saying which way is this going to fall, a pencil or a piece of paper? Look, it stayed up. There you go. Now, there's the answer.
O'BRIEN: A metaphor...
GREENFIELD: I mean I didn't even plan that...
O'BRIEN: ... for tomorrow, I believe.
GREENFIELD: We will not know Wednesday morning. Fine. Forget the Redskins. This was the symbol. I couldn't even make the damn thing fall.
O'BRIEN: The Jeff Greenfield predictor. That's a new one. We're going to keep that.
GREENFIELD: All right.
O'BRIEN: Jeff Greenfield, as always...
GREENFIELD: Remember this, folks, Wednesday morning.
O'BRIEN: I like it. Now it's not going to work. Oh, there it goes.
Thanks, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: All right.
O'BRIEN: CNN's Election Night coverage comes to you live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square, from real time election results on 96 TV screens to a live town hall meeting, our prime time coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time -- Bill.
HEMMER: I'll save the tape on that one, Jeff.
Also, both campaigns making every possible pitch to swing the undecided, invoking the national pastime, as well. Fresh off their first Wall Street victory in 86 years, the Boston Red Sox management team endorsed Sox fan Senator John Kerry for president, stumping with him in the State of New Hampshire. Not to be outdone, the Bush campaign sent out an automated phone message from Boston pitcher Curt Schilling, a Bush supporter, to try and woo voters in the Northeast.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CURT SCHILLING, BOSTON RED SOX PITCHER: Hello, this is Curt Schilling of the world champion Boston Red Sox. That sounds good, doesn't it? Well, I'm calling on behalf of President Bush. These past couple of weeks, Sox fans all throughout New England trusted me when it was my turn on the mound. Now you can trust me on this. President Bush is the right leader for our country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: That was Curt Schilling, by way of telephone message. Also, stumping with the president today. Here's another sports note. The Redskins lost yesterday. History predicts that means a victory for Senator Kerry. The outcome of last -- the last Redskins home football game before the election has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since 1936. So if you believe it, there you have it.
Green Bay wins. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Here's Chad again at the CNN Center watching the weather and the forecast for tomorrow, which we know always affects voter turnout as well.
How are you doing Chad? -- good morning.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Bill.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: In a moment, if you want to know who your neighbor is voting for, have you heard this?
O'BRIEN: No.
HEMMER: Look in their driveway. We'll explain that in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: I don't have a driveway.
Also ahead this morning, how a federal judge in New Jersey could affect the bitter battle for votes in Ohio. Jeff Toobin explains the fight in that key swing state.
HEMMER: Also, are the Palestinians ready to move on in a post- Arafat era? A look at what his government is doing now in his absence, in a moment here, as AMERICAN MORNING continues live in New York City, on a beautiful fall morning after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat will undergo more exams today at a military hospital in Paris. Officials within Arafat's government say the 75-year-old is getting better and leukemia has been ruled out. But with his recent health problems, many are thinking about life after Arafat.
CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney is live from Paris now with the very latest -- good morning.
FIONNUALA SWEENEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, good afternoon, Soledad, from Paris.
Yes, in the hospital here behind me, Yasser Arafat has been since Friday, as you say, undergoing further medical tests. We do know that today he managed to eat some food and by all accounts is in better spirits than he has been. And we also know that from his hospital bed, he condemned the bombing in Tel Aviv, which took place a number of hours ago.
But as you say, there are still medical tests going on, still no firm diagnosis. But we understand that the Palestinian Authority president is feeling better than he has done over the past two weeks.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
SWEENEY (voice-over): Day four and still no definitive news. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat remains at the Percy Military Hospital in Paris while a team of doctors tries to determine what ails him. A sudden deterioration in his health last week at his Ramallah compound resulted in his leaving the West Bank for the first time in almost three years.
Under virtual house arrest during that time, the Israeli authorities, saying the 75-year-old Palestinian Authority president was being allowed to leave on humanitarian grounds, adding there were no preconditions for his return.
In his absence, the Palestinian leadership determined to show the world it is business as usual.
Leader of the Palestinians since 1969, Yasser Arafat has never appointed a successor. In his absence, day to day running of the Palestinian Authority rests with two men, former prime minister and deputy chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Mahmoud Abbas, and the current prime minister, Ahmed Qureia.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
SWEENEY: So a sense of suspended animation here in Paris pending that diagnosis from doctors on Yasser Arafat's condition. That is expected some time on Wednesday. A sense of animation, suspended animation, too, in the West Bank and Gaza, as Palestinian leaders try to display unity, sensing that whatever the diagnosis, the time may have come to consider a future without Yasser Arafat -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Fionnuala Sweeney for us in Paris this morning.
Fionnuala, thanks -- Bill. HEMMER: Let's get a break here, Soledad.
In a moment, it is grueling on the campaign trail, so how do the men fight off exhaustion on the stump? It turns out by following some tips you can use, as well. We'll get a check of that when we continue in a moment here.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm honored by your support and I accept your nomination for president of the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: The road to the election -- that was President Bush, of course, at the Republican national convention, accepting the nomination as candidate for the Republican Party, one of the critical events that's happened to take us where we are today.
HEMMER: Yes.
He got a big bump out of that convention, too, and since then the polling, anyway, shows a much tighter race. What, too close to call? How many times have we said that, a hundred, in the past five days?
O'BRIEN: A hundred...
(CROSSTALK)
CAFFERTY: The only thing we say more often than too close to call is good morning.
Sometime I'm going to count how many times we say good morning in the three hours. It's a lot.
O'BRIEN: Yes, but that's not a bad thing, good morning.
CAFFERTY: I didn't say it was a bad thing, I just said we said it a lot.
O'BRIEN: We do.
CAFFERTY: There was no...
HEMMER: This is Jack Cafferty.
Good morning -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: There you go again.
O'BRIEN: Good morning.
CAFFERTY: With one day before the election, the candidates are accusing each other now over who loses more as a result of that Osama bin Laden tape that came out last week. Bill Safire in a "New York Times" op-ed this morning suggests the tape shows that it's bin Laden himself who has the most to lose. Safire says the tape is conciliatory and he says, "Generals do not call for a truce when they're winning."
On the eve of the election, the extent of the political fallout from that tape remains unknown.
The question is this, did the tape change the way you view the election?
We're getting a lot of pretty good stuff here in the way of responses.
Steve in Lexington, Kentucky: "I think bin Laden's intent is nothing other than to psyche us out, to make us second guess who we vote for and why we voted the way we did. If we're talking about him and his effect on the election, then he's won the battle. Thanks, Jack, for playing right into his hands. Way to go."
You're welcome.
Ken in Cahokia, Illinois: "Yes, Osama bin Laden's alive and well and plotting terror three and a half years after 9/11. President Bush has not captured him and now I will vote to give someone else a try."
On the Green Bay Packer/Washington Redskins game: "America owes the Redskins a debt of gratitude for throwing the game. We were in such a dither, but the Redskins were decisive, losing by half the Green Bay score. I hope we'll see John Kerry rename the Washington Monument Mark Brunell Monument. Let's see a little gratitude here."
And finally, Dean in Marlton, New Jersey says on the bin Laden tape: "No, but while we're on the subject, I thought he was lip syncing."
HEMMER: Funny stuff.
CAFFERTY: Right.
HEMMER: "Saturday Night Live" had some fun with this, too.
Here's their take on the Osama bin Laden tape from this past weekend.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE," COURTESY NBC/BROADWAY VIDEO)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Over the last several months, I have been approached repeatedly by representatives of both candidates, who have asked me if I would please endorse their opponent. But I have refused to do this. First, because, frankly, I find this request sort of insulting, which it really is, if you think about it, especially coming from Bush, who has not shown the least bit of interest in me since he invaded Iraq. For a time, I feared that I would not be eligible to vote in this election. But recently, praise Allah, I was tracked down by two volunteers from the Kerry camp. They signed me...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: I thought that was funny.
HEMMER: We missed the punch line. He goes on to say they've registered me in Cincinnati. Just in fun, Saturday night.
Let's get a break here.
In a moment, from Pennsylvania...
CAFFERTY: No, it's not...
HEMMER: What's that, buddy?
CAFFERTY: It wasn't that funny.
HEMMER: Yes, well...
CAFFERTY: It wasn't that funny.
O'BRIEN: Save it for the next half hour.
HEMMER: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) dumped out too soon.
CAFFERTY: Lame.
HEMMER: The problems in Pennsylvania. Technology supposed to make things a lot easier this time around. Officials there say it's actually making it worse. We'll explain in a moment after this on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Good morning, everyone.
8:30 here in New York.
Good to have you along with us today.
A day to go, right?
O'BRIEN: Um-hmm. And counting.
HEMMER: We're talking about it time and time again. A potentially important court ruling already in the State of Ohio. Campaign workers there will not be allowed to challenge the eligibility of voters when they arrive at the polling stations. Jeff Toobin stops by and talks about how important this ruling may or may not be and what both sides are trying to get out of it. So we'll talk to Jeff in a moment on that.
O'BRIEN: Also this morning, candidates' tested on their policies, their past, their character. And one of the biggest tests is their stamina during a grueling campaign schedule. Elizabeth Cohen takes a look at how the candidates are able to keep it together on the road.
HEMMER: Both men are in pretty good shape.
O'BRIEN: Yes, you'd better be.
HEMMER: They did that at home -- yes, you're exactly right about that.
Heidi Collins also with us today -- good morning again, Heidi, with the headlines now.
COLLINS: And good morning to you.
Straight to the Middle East this morning, guys.
Good morning to you, everybody.
Now in the news, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat is urging a revival of peace talks in the Middle East despite a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv some four hours ago. At least three people are dead. Dozens of others are wounded. Palestinian sources say a militant group known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has claimed responsibility for the attack.
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