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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Bush Wins Most Popular Vote in History; Exit Polls Indicate Moral Values Was Issue Most Important to Voters

Aired November 03, 2004 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
Today is the day we all weigh in with our deep thoughts about why the election turned out the way it did. I have no deep thoughts but I do have a couple of suspicions.

The obvious ones, of course, 9/11 changed everything and the president built a tremendous reservoir of good will for how he dealt with the attack. He seemed like a man's man and people liked that, obvious.

Another suspicion, the decision by the Massachusetts Supreme Court legalizing gay marriage put a back burner issue front burner and the president was able to capitalize on that, fold it into a broader theme about values, which leads to number three, my off-the-wall suspicion.

One of the most important moments of the campaign had nothing to do with the campaign at all. It was the Super Bowl halftime show. Even without the Janet Jackson breast moment, it was a reminder to many how raunchy things have become in the country. That was the Super Bowl, not MTV for goodness sakes.

I suspect that a lot of people just knew the president was deeply offended by that and that the Senator and his party weren't nearly as grossed out, a difference in values, fair, of course not, absolutely true, no way to know, as important as 9/11 not nearly but an odd little piece in the puzzle, well you can decide on that.

The whip begins with things not in dispute. Our Senior White House Correspondent John King on the day after, John the headline.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, unlike his father, this President Bush will get a second term and he says he has not only a majority but a mandate -- Aaron.

BROWN: John, thank you.

On to Boston, the final day of the Kerry campaign, Candy Crowley wrapping that up, Candy, a headline tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, this was the day that John Kerry woke up and realized that he had a math problem, there was just no way he could make the numbers add up.

BROWN: Candy, thank you.

And finally, on the subject of numbers and surprises, Bill Schneider with us tonight so, Bill, a quick headline from you.

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Aaron, we know how people voted on Election Day. I'll tell you how they voted on election night.

BROWN: Bill, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up in the program tonight, Republicans break out the champagne and toast a new majority in Congress, a larger one at that.

Also the war in Iraq and the dangers it poses for the president's second term.

And the election headlines, morning papers at the end of one of these hours, the second one I think, all that and more in the next two hours. That's an enticement we hope, not a threat.

There's a lot to be said about what was decided last night, what voters want, what they fear, what's to be done at home, what's to be done abroad. What it says about who we are that's the meat of the next two hours. We begin however by setting the table.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): It is in the end a simple storyline. Broad reaches of the nation have embraced the president and his party.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will uphold our deepest values of family and faith. We'll help the emerging democracies of Iraq and Afghanistan.

BROWN: The Republican red states overwhelm now the Democratic blue, much of the Midwest, all of the mid section and the deep south, the southwest, most of the west except for the coast.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And thanks to you, President George W. Bush won the greatest number of popular votes of any presidential candidate in history.

BROWN: Not only did President Bush defeat Senator Kerry by nearly four million votes in the popular race, Republicans remained in firm control of the House and made impressive gains in the Senate, the count there now 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, advantages that historically will be very difficult for Democrats to overcome anytime soon.

GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: Senator Kerry didn't have that kind of connection with his base as the president did and I thought that that was going to matter.

BROWN: Even in states like Ohio where job losses were high, exit polls showed voters believed the president would do a better job of fixing the economy than the man who campaigned so ardently to do just that, ammunition for what is certain to be a long winter of discontent for the Democratic Party firmly now out of power.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: So, the president and his party find themselves with very little standing in the way of some very ambitious plans, which oddly enough is no guarantee of success. Parties fall prey to infighting. Events overtake plans sometimes and presidents get things done with and without a mandate. As they say, your mileage may vary but tonight clearly there is a tiger in the tank.

Here's our Senior White House Correspondent John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): No recount and no doubt about the winner this time, a rowdy Republican celebration but also an attempt to set a new tone for a second term.

BUSH: So, today I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it.

KING: But make no mistake the victors seek bipartisanship but on their terms and believe a clear majority of the popular vote and bigger Republican margins in Congress give them the upper hand.

CHENEY: President Bush ran forthrightly on a clear agenda for this nation's future and the nation responded by giving him a mandate.

KING: Celebration on this day, talk of cooperation will be tested early in the new term.

KEN DUBERSTEIN, FMR. REAGAN CHIEF OF STAFF: They'll be campaigning for the history books for a legacy.

KING: The Iraq War still divides the parties, as does a second term agenda that includes tax simplification, healthcare changes Democrats say fall short and revamping Social Security.

BUSH: I see a great day coming for our country and I am eager for the work ahead.

KING: Senior Bush aides believe the first partisan dust-up could come within weeks. Chief Justice William Rehnquist has cancer and the White House is quietly preparing to name a successor and cabinet and staff turnover is in the works after a first term noteworthy (UNINTELLIIGIBLE) at the top.

DUBERSTEIN: It will be, in fact, wholesale changes in a second Bush administration.

KING: Gone is the legitimacy debate of 2000 when Mr. Bush won the White House but lost the popular vote.

BUSH: The voters turned out in record numbers and delivered an historic victory.

KING: It was a dramatic turnaround. Early exit polls scooped the White House and, as Mr. Bush watched the votes come in, Ohio met expectations, a nail-biter and the decisive state. Mr. Bush went to bed at 5:00 a.m. confident of reelection. This conversation six hours later sealed the victory and separated son from the father. Senator Kerry's call to concede guaranteed this President Bush a second term.

BUSH: We had a really good phone call. He was very gracious.

KING: Victory was vindication for top political adviser Karl Rove. Mr. Bush called him the architect and the win silenced critics who suggested a Bush strategy so focused on winning support of religious conservatives would come up short.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: Instead that strategy brought Mr. Bush a surge in rural and evangelical turnout, a record 59 million votes, the first majority for president since his father back in 1988 and, Aaron, even many Democrats tonight begrudgingly concede the right to claim for a second term a mandate.

BROWN: Well, the truth be told the president governed as if he had a mandate even when he hadn't won the majority of the electoral vote four years ago. We certainly allow him that now. There are so many things to ask. We could play who's on first or who's going to be.

But there is it seems one overriding reality for the second term beyond the fact that he is a lame duck from the get-go and that is there's not going to be a lot of money to work with. The deficit is historically high.

KING: And that is going to force some tough compromises. He's going to ask Republicans less pork in the budget. He's going to try to reach out to Democrats but he's going to try to shrink the budget in many of the departments the Democrats favor and so this president has a very tough governing agenda now.

They will celebrate today. They're already working on that budget and it will be tough because many are skeptical he can cut the deficit in half in five years. He must make a down payment in that first budget. The evangelical Christians, the social Christians supported him. The economics conservatives supported him too but they are antsy about the deficit. They want to see action quickly.

BROWN: John, thank you for your good work these weeks. It's been good to have you on the program so many nights. Thank you, John King at the White House.

Democracies have rituals, some great, some small, some of them almost silly on the face of it such as getting on the phone with the guy you spent the better part of two years campaigning against, sometimes bitterly so, and saying congratulations, the best man won. As John just reported, today Senator Kerry did just that and by all accounts he did it quite well. He spoke with the president and the president spoke with him in the kind of gracious tones that would seem odd on the 2nd of November but that are vital on the 3rd.

And then Senator Kerry spoke with supporters in Boston, with that part of the story, CNN's Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY (voice-over): It only hurts when he breathes.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: I'm sorry that we got here a little bit late and a little bit short.

CROWLEY: Two years of late nights, early mornings and long days, seething heat, numbing cold, bad food and sketchy hotels, speeches, rallies, conventions and debates, talking and listening and then it got hard.

KERRY: And I wish, you don't know how much, that I could have brought this race home for you.

CROWLEY: He said all the right things in just the right way that the votes were not there that it was time to come together. More interesting was who he showed himself to be. Losing set something free in John Kerry who reached out in a way seldom seen.

KERRY: I wish that I could just wrap you up in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart.

CROWLEY: Twenty-four hours ago they were flying so high, certain that those giant crowds were an omen that the long lines meant more hands punching the Democratic ticket, believing that the early exit polls would bring early victory. Democratic strategists say they did their job but Republicans did it better. They will spend years thinking about what went wrong. Right now they only feel.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I try to care about anybody I work for but he's a friend.

CROWLEY: John Kerry will return to the Senate. There are four years left in his term as the junior Senator from Massachusetts. He's different though. Like every presidential candidate he set out to change the country only to have the country change him.

KERRY: I'll never forget the wonderful people who came to our rallies and stood in our rope lines, who put their hopes in our hands, who invested in each and every one of us. I saw in them the truth that America is not only great but it is good.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY: What's next for John Kerry? A staff aide says he's going to rest and regroup at a location TBD -- Aaron. BROWN: Again, so many things to ask. If they could have one day back, does any one day come to mind, one moment come to mind they'd like back?

CROWLEY: You know, certainly there's a lot of discussion going on, not from those closest to him because that's all about feeling right now but around him. When you talk to Democrats they say should he have spent that last week talking about the ammunition missing in Iraq?

I think of all of the things, if you're just talking about one moment, I can tell you for sure that the one moment most Democrats hated was the windsurfing moment. That just really killed them. It showed up in a lot of the TV ads for the Republicans. They felt it said something that didn't describe John Kerry at all but it's not so much moments as it is which direction the campaign went.

Were they too hard on George Bush? Were they not hard enough? But you know, Aaron, as well as I do, the Democratic Party will spend the next two years trying to figure this out as they prepare for the next round and they have to figure out which way they go here and part of that process is figuring out what went wrong in this one.

BROWN: Well, I would agree, not that they want my advice or need it. I'd spend a little less time on what went wrong and a little more time on who you are. That may get it done or it may not. Candy, likewise I think you broke your finger on this campaign, so you played on the injured reserve list. We appreciate your work. Thank you.

CROWLEY: OK, thanks.

BROWN: More now on what to make of who voted, how many, what they had to say when they voted, all of that exit poll stuff. We're here with Bill Schneider again tonight. It's been nice to have you here in New York with us too.

Four years ago we sat here for days and days and days amid a sense that half the country felt the election was being stolen or maybe all the country felt it was being stolen. They just felt it was being stolen by different people. Do people look at the election last night as a fair deal?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, they do. In 2000, half the country said he won the election fair and square. The other half said he won on a technicality or he stole it. Well this year three-quarters of the country says, well he won fair and square and that includes both Republicans and Democrats. These were people we interviewed today, so it's a reaction not to the election itself but to election night and what happened.


Aired November 3, 2004 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
Today is the day we all weigh in with our deep thoughts about why the election turned out the way it did. I have no deep thoughts but I do have a couple of suspicions.

The obvious ones, of course, 9/11 changed everything and the president built a tremendous reservoir of good will for how he dealt with the attack. He seemed like a man's man and people liked that, obvious.

Another suspicion, the decision by the Massachusetts Supreme Court legalizing gay marriage put a back burner issue front burner and the president was able to capitalize on that, fold it into a broader theme about values, which leads to number three, my off-the-wall suspicion.

One of the most important moments of the campaign had nothing to do with the campaign at all. It was the Super Bowl halftime show. Even without the Janet Jackson breast moment, it was a reminder to many how raunchy things have become in the country. That was the Super Bowl, not MTV for goodness sakes.

I suspect that a lot of people just knew the president was deeply offended by that and that the Senator and his party weren't nearly as grossed out, a difference in values, fair, of course not, absolutely true, no way to know, as important as 9/11 not nearly but an odd little piece in the puzzle, well you can decide on that.

The whip begins with things not in dispute. Our Senior White House Correspondent John King on the day after, John the headline.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, unlike his father, this President Bush will get a second term and he says he has not only a majority but a mandate -- Aaron.

BROWN: John, thank you.

On to Boston, the final day of the Kerry campaign, Candy Crowley wrapping that up, Candy, a headline tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, this was the day that John Kerry woke up and realized that he had a math problem, there was just no way he could make the numbers add up.

BROWN: Candy, thank you.

And finally, on the subject of numbers and surprises, Bill Schneider with us tonight so, Bill, a quick headline from you.

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Aaron, we know how people voted on Election Day. I'll tell you how they voted on election night.

BROWN: Bill, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up in the program tonight, Republicans break out the champagne and toast a new majority in Congress, a larger one at that.

Also the war in Iraq and the dangers it poses for the president's second term.

And the election headlines, morning papers at the end of one of these hours, the second one I think, all that and more in the next two hours. That's an enticement we hope, not a threat.

There's a lot to be said about what was decided last night, what voters want, what they fear, what's to be done at home, what's to be done abroad. What it says about who we are that's the meat of the next two hours. We begin however by setting the table.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): It is in the end a simple storyline. Broad reaches of the nation have embraced the president and his party.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will uphold our deepest values of family and faith. We'll help the emerging democracies of Iraq and Afghanistan.

BROWN: The Republican red states overwhelm now the Democratic blue, much of the Midwest, all of the mid section and the deep south, the southwest, most of the west except for the coast.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And thanks to you, President George W. Bush won the greatest number of popular votes of any presidential candidate in history.

BROWN: Not only did President Bush defeat Senator Kerry by nearly four million votes in the popular race, Republicans remained in firm control of the House and made impressive gains in the Senate, the count there now 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, advantages that historically will be very difficult for Democrats to overcome anytime soon.

GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: Senator Kerry didn't have that kind of connection with his base as the president did and I thought that that was going to matter.

BROWN: Even in states like Ohio where job losses were high, exit polls showed voters believed the president would do a better job of fixing the economy than the man who campaigned so ardently to do just that, ammunition for what is certain to be a long winter of discontent for the Democratic Party firmly now out of power.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: So, the president and his party find themselves with very little standing in the way of some very ambitious plans, which oddly enough is no guarantee of success. Parties fall prey to infighting. Events overtake plans sometimes and presidents get things done with and without a mandate. As they say, your mileage may vary but tonight clearly there is a tiger in the tank.

Here's our Senior White House Correspondent John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): No recount and no doubt about the winner this time, a rowdy Republican celebration but also an attempt to set a new tone for a second term.

BUSH: So, today I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it.

KING: But make no mistake the victors seek bipartisanship but on their terms and believe a clear majority of the popular vote and bigger Republican margins in Congress give them the upper hand.

CHENEY: President Bush ran forthrightly on a clear agenda for this nation's future and the nation responded by giving him a mandate.

KING: Celebration on this day, talk of cooperation will be tested early in the new term.

KEN DUBERSTEIN, FMR. REAGAN CHIEF OF STAFF: They'll be campaigning for the history books for a legacy.

KING: The Iraq War still divides the parties, as does a second term agenda that includes tax simplification, healthcare changes Democrats say fall short and revamping Social Security.

BUSH: I see a great day coming for our country and I am eager for the work ahead.

KING: Senior Bush aides believe the first partisan dust-up could come within weeks. Chief Justice William Rehnquist has cancer and the White House is quietly preparing to name a successor and cabinet and staff turnover is in the works after a first term noteworthy (UNINTELLIIGIBLE) at the top.

DUBERSTEIN: It will be, in fact, wholesale changes in a second Bush administration.

KING: Gone is the legitimacy debate of 2000 when Mr. Bush won the White House but lost the popular vote.

BUSH: The voters turned out in record numbers and delivered an historic victory.

KING: It was a dramatic turnaround. Early exit polls scooped the White House and, as Mr. Bush watched the votes come in, Ohio met expectations, a nail-biter and the decisive state. Mr. Bush went to bed at 5:00 a.m. confident of reelection. This conversation six hours later sealed the victory and separated son from the father. Senator Kerry's call to concede guaranteed this President Bush a second term.

BUSH: We had a really good phone call. He was very gracious.

KING: Victory was vindication for top political adviser Karl Rove. Mr. Bush called him the architect and the win silenced critics who suggested a Bush strategy so focused on winning support of religious conservatives would come up short.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: Instead that strategy brought Mr. Bush a surge in rural and evangelical turnout, a record 59 million votes, the first majority for president since his father back in 1988 and, Aaron, even many Democrats tonight begrudgingly concede the right to claim for a second term a mandate.

BROWN: Well, the truth be told the president governed as if he had a mandate even when he hadn't won the majority of the electoral vote four years ago. We certainly allow him that now. There are so many things to ask. We could play who's on first or who's going to be.

But there is it seems one overriding reality for the second term beyond the fact that he is a lame duck from the get-go and that is there's not going to be a lot of money to work with. The deficit is historically high.

KING: And that is going to force some tough compromises. He's going to ask Republicans less pork in the budget. He's going to try to reach out to Democrats but he's going to try to shrink the budget in many of the departments the Democrats favor and so this president has a very tough governing agenda now.

They will celebrate today. They're already working on that budget and it will be tough because many are skeptical he can cut the deficit in half in five years. He must make a down payment in that first budget. The evangelical Christians, the social Christians supported him. The economics conservatives supported him too but they are antsy about the deficit. They want to see action quickly.

BROWN: John, thank you for your good work these weeks. It's been good to have you on the program so many nights. Thank you, John King at the White House.

Democracies have rituals, some great, some small, some of them almost silly on the face of it such as getting on the phone with the guy you spent the better part of two years campaigning against, sometimes bitterly so, and saying congratulations, the best man won. As John just reported, today Senator Kerry did just that and by all accounts he did it quite well. He spoke with the president and the president spoke with him in the kind of gracious tones that would seem odd on the 2nd of November but that are vital on the 3rd.

And then Senator Kerry spoke with supporters in Boston, with that part of the story, CNN's Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY (voice-over): It only hurts when he breathes.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: I'm sorry that we got here a little bit late and a little bit short.

CROWLEY: Two years of late nights, early mornings and long days, seething heat, numbing cold, bad food and sketchy hotels, speeches, rallies, conventions and debates, talking and listening and then it got hard.

KERRY: And I wish, you don't know how much, that I could have brought this race home for you.

CROWLEY: He said all the right things in just the right way that the votes were not there that it was time to come together. More interesting was who he showed himself to be. Losing set something free in John Kerry who reached out in a way seldom seen.

KERRY: I wish that I could just wrap you up in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart.

CROWLEY: Twenty-four hours ago they were flying so high, certain that those giant crowds were an omen that the long lines meant more hands punching the Democratic ticket, believing that the early exit polls would bring early victory. Democratic strategists say they did their job but Republicans did it better. They will spend years thinking about what went wrong. Right now they only feel.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I try to care about anybody I work for but he's a friend.

CROWLEY: John Kerry will return to the Senate. There are four years left in his term as the junior Senator from Massachusetts. He's different though. Like every presidential candidate he set out to change the country only to have the country change him.

KERRY: I'll never forget the wonderful people who came to our rallies and stood in our rope lines, who put their hopes in our hands, who invested in each and every one of us. I saw in them the truth that America is not only great but it is good.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY: What's next for John Kerry? A staff aide says he's going to rest and regroup at a location TBD -- Aaron. BROWN: Again, so many things to ask. If they could have one day back, does any one day come to mind, one moment come to mind they'd like back?

CROWLEY: You know, certainly there's a lot of discussion going on, not from those closest to him because that's all about feeling right now but around him. When you talk to Democrats they say should he have spent that last week talking about the ammunition missing in Iraq?

I think of all of the things, if you're just talking about one moment, I can tell you for sure that the one moment most Democrats hated was the windsurfing moment. That just really killed them. It showed up in a lot of the TV ads for the Republicans. They felt it said something that didn't describe John Kerry at all but it's not so much moments as it is which direction the campaign went.

Were they too hard on George Bush? Were they not hard enough? But you know, Aaron, as well as I do, the Democratic Party will spend the next two years trying to figure this out as they prepare for the next round and they have to figure out which way they go here and part of that process is figuring out what went wrong in this one.

BROWN: Well, I would agree, not that they want my advice or need it. I'd spend a little less time on what went wrong and a little more time on who you are. That may get it done or it may not. Candy, likewise I think you broke your finger on this campaign, so you played on the injured reserve list. We appreciate your work. Thank you.

CROWLEY: OK, thanks.

BROWN: More now on what to make of who voted, how many, what they had to say when they voted, all of that exit poll stuff. We're here with Bill Schneider again tonight. It's been nice to have you here in New York with us too.

Four years ago we sat here for days and days and days amid a sense that half the country felt the election was being stolen or maybe all the country felt it was being stolen. They just felt it was being stolen by different people. Do people look at the election last night as a fair deal?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, they do. In 2000, half the country said he won the election fair and square. The other half said he won on a technicality or he stole it. Well this year three-quarters of the country says, well he won fair and square and that includes both Republicans and Democrats. These were people we interviewed today, so it's a reaction not to the election itself but to election night and what happened.