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CNN Live At Daybreak
Ohio Remains Undecided; Andy Card Speaks To Bush Supporters
Aired November 03, 2004 - 05:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: In fact let me throw it over to Carol Costello right now. From the Nasdaq MarketSite at Times Square over to the CNN Center in Atlanta -- Carol.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Wolf Blitzer and all of our political analysts. What a terrific job they've done for about 13 hours now.
Good morning to you, welcome to the second half hour of DAYBREAK, that is technically. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello. Let's take a look at the headlines first, shall we?
Ohio still undecided because of the question over provisional ballots. Those ballots involve voters whose names did not show up on a registration list but were allowed to vote anyway.
Election officials must now make sure they are legally registered in the correct precinct. Both candidates will just have to wait for the final totals. The Kerry campaign says it is not giving up until every single vote is counted. President Bush, in the meantime, is still watching the race from the White House.
A result in New Mexico is also on hold. We'll have to wait until all the absentee ballots there are counted. That result is expected later today.
Let's head up to the forecast center, to say hello Chad Myers.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: You correctly predicted this.
MYERS: I did. I said we would not know at this time.
COSTELLO: Let's take a look at the AJC, down to the wire, again.
MYERS: Of course. I'm waiting for the New York papers, because those always have great, great headlines.
COSTELLO: Especially "The Post."
MYERS: And you know, so far, so good, on most of the bad things that could have happened. I mean we really haven't heard about all those ugly things that could have been predicted, and in many places were predicted.
(WEATHER FORECAST) COSTELLO: We want to take a look at the electoral map, just to bring our viewers up to date on what is happening now. As you can see the South is solidly red for President Bush. Mostly the Northeast and, of course, far out West solidly in the blue for John Kerry.
And you can see those states that we do not have results for. That would be New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, still too close to call because of those provisional ballots. We're going talk about that in just a second.
But technically, 254 electoral votes for President Bush; 252 electoral votes for Senator John Kerry.
Let's move on to the numbers from Ohio, you can see why it is too close to call; 51 percent to 49 percent, provisional ballots are still out there. I guess they have counted the absentee ballots. That is what Wolf Blitzer has been reporting all morning long.
But those provisional ballots, those ballots where voters go to the polls, find they're not the registered, their given a provisional ballot, then it is decided later those ballots, some 75,000 to 250,000 of them will not be counted for 11 eleven days. Don't know if that will make a difference.
But according to Ohio state law, a number of votes won't even start to be counted for 10 or more days, but I just said that.
Let's go out to Stark County now and Adaora Udoji, who has been there for, oh what seems 24 to 48 hours.
Good morning, Adaora.
ADAORA UDOJI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.
Well it seems analysts certainly got one thing right.
COSTELLO: What's that?
UDOJI: Well, many thought it would come down to this, that Ohio was just that critical and that these 20 electoral votes were just going to be key.
And of course, we're talking about provisional ballots. And they only matter, as you pointed out, if the margin between the two candidates -- if there are more provisional ballots than the margin between the two candidates.
And the bottom line for the State of Ohio is that, unlike other states, where provisional ballots are new, Ohio has been using them for the past 10 years. In fact, in the year 2000 there were 120,000 provisional ballots. And they have been counting them without incident over these years.
The big question is, how many? As I just said. And earlier the Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said he wasn't sure because some of the numbers were still coming in. But at that time he said it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that they were 200,000 or so, plus or minus. But again that could be much less.
Here's the potential problem. I mean there are some potential thorny legal issues in here. And that is, from what we understand, and what the secretary of state's office has told us in the past is that there are 88 counties in the State of Ohio and each board of election in those counties counts these provisional ballots in their own way. In other words, there is not a uniform process.
And as you mentioned, or just keeping in mind, the provisionals are people who show up at polls that are not on an official record. And they are allowed to vote and afterwards they're put in a separate pile and officials will go through them and figure out if that person, that the age requirements, their residency requirements, the nationality requirements, and if they do, then they count them.
But if they don't, if there is some issue about any of those things then they're not counted and clearly there would be room to squabble there, given how much litigation we've seen here the past week.
COSTELLO: But Adaora, President Bush is leading by more than 100,000 votes in Ohio right now. Will it really make that much of a difference? Are there that many provisional ballots still out there?
UDOJI: I guess that is the big question. That is just what we don't know at this point. And we should add, also, that it is not just the provisional ballots, it is also the overseas ballots. I mean, as I said in 2000 there were 120,000 provisional ballots and I think, or at least the secretary of state's office has been telling us for the past couple of days that they were expecting that there would be more this time around.
And we should also keep in mind that so far the numbers look like they are somewhere around 700,000 more voters this time than there was in 2000. So, it is just not clear how many provisional ballots are out there.
COSTELLO: And then you have the other question, because I know most of Ohio, at least 70 percent of Ohio uses punch card ballots. But the state has used those kind of ballots for years, never had any problem. But this year, who knows?
UDOJI: I think that is exactly right. And obviously, as we all learned in 2000, once the microscope is lasered in on any particular state then there are all kinds of issues that potentially become points of argument. Clearly if it turns out that there are far less provisional ballots then all of these issues go away. But if there are more provisional ballots, then that roughly 140,000 difference between President Bush and Senator Kerry, then who know?
COSTELLO: OK, a final question for you, at least for right now, when will we know more? Do we have to wait those 11 days to find out the final vote tally in Ohio, or will we know something sooner?
UDOJI: Well, Carol, it is my understanding that actually these board of elections have 10 days to go through these provisional ballots and make a determination. And it is on the 11th day that those results are certified. So, again, depending on how many there are and how these various boards go about counting those provisional ballots not clear when we would know.
COSTELLO: You are going to be in Ohio for a good long time, Adaora.
UDOJI: Thanks, Carol.
(LAUGHTER)
COSTELLO: It is my hometown, though, it's nice there. Go to the Hall of Fame, the Pro-Football Hall of Fame.
UDOJI: Oh, but wait a second, speaking of your home, of course, Stark County, we're here in Stark County. And this is the county with a record of voting with the winner nine out of the 10 past presidential elections, the past 40 years. And this time it was close but in Stark County it appears that Kerry was up 51 percent to Bush's 49 percent. So, if President Bush wins then this would be a year that Stark County just didn't stay true to its history.
COSTELLO: Interesting.
You know my father lives in Stark County and I told him to go down to the polls and if he was met by challengers or monitors, I wanted to know about it. He didn't have any problems though. He went at lunchtime.
UDOJI: Yes, well things went very smoothly here in Stark County, we are told.
COSTELLO: That's good to know. Adaora Udoji, we'll get back to you. Thank you so much.
All events, of course, on hold while the Ohio situation shakes out. President Bush stayed up all night in the White House keeping a close eye on the race. For the latest from Washington let's bring in CNN's Dana Bash.
At last check with you Dana, we were awaiting word from Andy Card, actually.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That is where we are, still, Carol. We're still waiting for Andy Card, the White House chief of staff. He should be here at the Ronald Reagan Building very shortly.
The folks here, the few folks who are still here, who have been here for hours and hours, still -- since last night -- awaiting for President Bush to come and speak to them, were just told about a half an hour ago that they are instead going to get his chief of staff because things are just too up in the air in terms of Ohio and in terms of Mexico.
And here's Andy Card. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ... my pleasure to introduce to you this morning, the chief of staff to the president of the United States, the Honorable Andrew Card.
(APPLAUSE)
ANDY CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: Thank you. Thank you very much.
I want to thank all of you for staying up so late with us, and good morning.
I'm Andy Card. I'm President Bush's chief of staff.
We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election with at least 286 electoral college votes.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CARD: And he also had a margin of more than 3.5 million popular votes.
(APPLAUSE)
President Bush's decisive margin of victory makes this the first presidential election since 1988 in which the winner received the majority of the popular vote.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
And in this election President Bush received more votes than any presidential candidate in our country's history.
(APPLAUSE)
Republicans also scored other great victories in this election. We won important victories adding to our majority in the House and adding to our majority in the Senate.
(APPLAUSE)
In Ohio, President Bush, has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the provisional ballots are considered.
(APPLAUSE)
So, President Bush has won the State of Ohio!
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
President Bush has also been declared the winner in Nevada. The other victories that he has had will be added with the strong showing of margins that we are looking at in Iowa and New Mexico. And we're also going to put those states in the winner's column as well. (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
This all ads up to a convincing electoral college victory, as well as a strong endorsement of President Bush by his fellow Americans in the popular vote.
President Bush decided to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of this election. The president will be making a statement later today.
Again, I thank all of you who stayed up these many hours waiting for the opportunity to celebrate this victory. And I also thank all of the volunteers, all across this great country, that worked so hard.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
But most importantly I thank the many voters who participated in this important election. It was a great celebration of our democracy.
Thank you and God bless you.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
Thank you.
BASH: And there you hear the president's chief of staff giving an address here to the supporters at the Ronald Reagan Building, the supporters were waiting to hear from the president himself, but he made clear that the reason the president is not here is only because he wants to do this out of respect for Senator Kerry.
But he does believe, as Andy Card said, that the president did win a decisive victory for a second term in office not only with the electoral college saying that he believe he won 286 electoral votes, at this time, but also in terms of the popular vote saying that he won a decisive victory in the popular vote.
He believes, perhaps, the most decisive victory in the nation's history. So, Andy Card making clear that although the president has not, again, done it himself, he will later on today make a speech and they are going to wait for Senator Kerry to come out, out of respect for him. Because they obviously are saying that they believe this is a victory.
COSTELLO: You are not kidding. But let's jump back a bit. Because Ohio is too close to call of course. We are not calling President Bush the winner of the State of Ohio. Those provisional ballots are still out there. The ballots from overseas are still coming in. But of course, as you heard Andy Card says, the president has some 120,000 vote lead in the State of Ohio.
Also, in Iowa, in Iowa, they went to bed. They had problems with voting machines and they said the poll workers were too tired. So, they went to bed. We won't know the outcome of that state tomorrow. And in New Mexico, there are just so many votes to count, they're still counting. So, I guess I'm wondering how Andy Card can come out and definitely say that?
BASH: Well, if you heard him say that the secretary of state has told the White House, according to him, that he doesn't believe that, statistically, John Kerry can win. That is something we have been hearing from Bush aides all evening, all morning, I should say. That they believe that no matter how you slice it given the number of provisional ballots, mathematically, because the president has the lead that he has in Ohio, that it still wouldn't make a difference. That is what they believe.
Of course, Senator Kerry, seems, they are saying that is simply not true and obviously that is why we're sitting here and we're waiting and we're going to figure out what happens later today.
All you need is Ohio, given what the president already has, decisively. Now to cross the 270 threshold, to give the president what he needs in the electoral college.
And the other states are certainly open questions at this point. So, you know, again, Carol, we don't know. You made a very good point, that we are not, CNN is not calling Ohio. We are going to wait, see how things play out. We're being very cautious here. But the White House is not.
COSTELLO: And you are right, Ohio has 20 electoral votes. If you add up Iowa, New Mexico, that is only 12 electoral votes. So, if the president only wins Ohio, that puts him at the number he needs to win electorally.
You know, I have to laugh. The crowd is gone from behind you. They cleared out fast, didn't they?
BASH: They did. They were almost gone before Andy Card got here. I'll tell you. They were here -- they really, they were here very long and they were very rowdy up until about 3:00 in the morning. And then that was it. They were sleeping on the floor, they were waiting and as soon as they heard the president wasn't coming most people left.
COSTELLO: Did most people at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, you know standing there, waiting for a definitive win by President Bush. Did they expect it to be this close?
BASH: Well, they certainly hoped it wasn't going to be this close. But you know given what happened four years ago, given the incredible margins, the very narrow margins of all of the public polling, leading up to today. Certainly people thought that this was a possibility. But they sort of hoped against hope that this wouldn't happen.
COSTELLO: Dana Bash reporting live from Washington, D.C. I'm sure we'll be getting back to you soon. Thank you.
You are watching DAYBREAK. We'll take a short break. We'll be right back with much more.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Both parties knew the outcome of the campaign could hinge on Ohio. Democrats have already thousands of lawyers in the state, but it is still unclear how they will react to the dispute over provisional ballots, or even if there will be a dispute.
CNN election analyst Ken Gross is here to talk more about legal matters.
Good morning, Ken.
KEN GROSS, CNN ELECTION ANALYST: Good morning.
COSTELLO: So, you heard Andy Card. Do you disagree with anything he said?
GROSS: Well, it may be overly optimistic. I mean, it is not over yet. Obviously, Senator Kerry has a tremendous uphill battle. I think the math doesn't quite work exactly the way Andy Card said. It appears to be, I've heard different numbers. And I guess we haven't settled exactly how many provisional ballots there are out there, in addition to absentee ballots that may be coming in from around the state and around the world.
COSTELLO: Well, Andy ...
GROSS: So -- go ahead.
COSTELLO: Andy Card said that the president is leading in Ohio by some 130,000 votes. We don't even know how many provisional ballots are out there, or how many ballots are coming in from overseas?
GROSS: That's right. So, the math, I think, still is unresolved. Because I've heard estimates, including from the secretary of state of Ohio, who is Republican, that they do exceed that number of 130,000. So, statistically, mathematically, if things break in Senator Kerry's direction, there is a possibility of pulling this out.
But I don't want to make it sound like it is a likelihood, because really everything has to break in his favor. But this process will take some time. And during that time other challenges could arise.
COSTELLO: So, explain to our viewers, provisional ballots. That is people who go into the polls, find their not on the registration list, so they are given a provisional ballot. And then the state figures it out later. How much of a trauma will that be?
GROSS: Well, you know, it is a good question because, ironically, provisional ballots was a remedy to some of the problems that we saw in Florida in 2000. What was happening back then was that people were going to the polls, they weren't on the registration list, and they were turned away. And then it turned out that they should have been able to vote, it was just some sort of computer error that they weren't on the list.
So, we have now given them the opportunity to vote. Unfortunately it is quite a large number as we're seeing well in excess of 100,000 votes, likely. So, they are put aside on a separate pile and then once the vote of the people who voted in the regular way are counted, they get to these provisional ballots. And then they have to check each one to see if they should have been counted as a valid vote and when they do tally them up it does go into the total mix. And it is possible it could change the outcome.
COSTELLO: Oh, see, all those lawyers out there. I could just smell a lawsuit.
Thank you very much. Ken Gross, you will be back with us to talk more about this stuff.
GROSS: Sure.
COSTELLO: A little problem in the State of Ohio this morning. But let's take a look at the balance of power in the U.S. Senate now.
Heading into this election, the balance of power was 51 Republicans to 48 Democrats, one senator an independent, votes Democratic -- that independent senator, I should say, usually votes on the Democratic side.
The Republicans will retain control of the Senate. And that is because of the outcome of all of the elections held for the Senate across the country. On the other side of the Capitol building, the jobs of all 435 House members were on the line.
And as you can see, the balance of power there, 228 Republicans to 199 Democrats, so the balance of power here, way more on the Republican side. And it appears the Republicans have also picked up a few seats of the House.
But let's talk about exactly what happened in this election fallout. Chuck Todd the editor of "The National Journal"/"The Hotline", joins us from Washington for that.
Good morning.
CHUCK TODD, EDITOR, "THE HOTLINE": Good morning.
COSTELLO: I guess the biggest shock is that Tom Daschle was knocked out of the Senate.
TODD: Yes, it is.
COSTELLO: At least we think so, right now.
TODD: Well, yes. Well, no, in South Dakota 6,000 votes is a landslide. John Thune lost his 2002 race by about 500 votes, so a 6,000 vote victory is a big deal out there.
Yes, that is the big loss -- that is definitely the big loss for the Democrats.
COSTELLO: So, what does this mean for the Democrats, especially in the Senate?
TODD: Well, it is going to be, look there is a huge leadership vacuum in the entire Democratic Party. I mean, you know, let's -- you know, the handwriting is on the wall in Ohio, despite what the Kerry folks are trying to do, but assuming Ohio doesn't switch, then basically the two leading Democrats in the Democratic Party, John Kerry and Tom Daschle, will have lost. And there will be a huge vacuum.
Harry Reid a Democratic senator from Nevada is somebody that is going to try and fill it. Chris Dodd, a Democratic senator from Connecticut, he'll try to fill it. And then you've got the Hillary factor. What is the Hillary Clinton going to do? And so, it is not clear who runs the Democratic Party after -- if John Kerry doesn't win this contesting Ohio. And it is a big problem for the Democrats.
COSTELLO: You're not kidding, because you know, you say Harry Reid from Nevada, nobody's ever heard of him.
TODD: That's right.
COSTELLO: And that's a problem, isn't it? I mean, perceptually, across the country, for people -- for the voters, I guess?
TODD: No, they need someone that is -- that's right. And Hillary Clinton is going to be the person that a lot of Democrats gravitate to, because she's a familiar face and a familiar person. But she's geographically challenged, being from New York State, where clearly the biggest problem for the Democrats is they just are out of touch with the Southern part of this country and the center part of this country. Because that is where they lost states in the presidential race and that is where they lost states in the Senate races.
COSTELLO: Of course, President Bush won Florida. And if you take a look at the map, ooh, there is an awful lot of red states in the South.
TODD: A ton of red. I mean it's hard to find the blue. It is all sort of like, it is sort of on the outline of the country. It really is a big problem, the Democrats have.
COSTELLO: So, before you go and come back again later.
TODD: OK.
COSTELLO: I just want to know from you, what has been the biggest surprise, last night, election night?
TODD: Well, I think the fact that President Bush had such a huge popular vote victory. I mean, I think, a lot of people thought he could win the electoral college. I don't think a lot of people expected the big popular vote victory that he got. That is a big mandate.
And you know, we're calling this a provisional landslide. We have the provisional ballots, but Republicans won everything. And I don't think the party is getting enough credit right now, because of what's going on in Ohio. But to sweep those Southern Senate races, to pick up seats in the House, when they were actually playing more defense than offense. It is a big night for the Republicans.
COSTELLO: Chuck Todd, from "The National Journal". Thank you. Of course, you'll join us again later on DAYBREAK.
TODD: You got it.
COSTELLO: The reason candidates make multiple trips to New Mexico and never stop in New York. Just ahead we'll take a look at the electoral college and talk about if it's days are numbered.
You're watching DAYBREAK for Wednesday, November 3.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired November 3, 2004 - 05:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: In fact let me throw it over to Carol Costello right now. From the Nasdaq MarketSite at Times Square over to the CNN Center in Atlanta -- Carol.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Wolf Blitzer and all of our political analysts. What a terrific job they've done for about 13 hours now.
Good morning to you, welcome to the second half hour of DAYBREAK, that is technically. From the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello. Let's take a look at the headlines first, shall we?
Ohio still undecided because of the question over provisional ballots. Those ballots involve voters whose names did not show up on a registration list but were allowed to vote anyway.
Election officials must now make sure they are legally registered in the correct precinct. Both candidates will just have to wait for the final totals. The Kerry campaign says it is not giving up until every single vote is counted. President Bush, in the meantime, is still watching the race from the White House.
A result in New Mexico is also on hold. We'll have to wait until all the absentee ballots there are counted. That result is expected later today.
Let's head up to the forecast center, to say hello Chad Myers.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Carol.
COSTELLO: You correctly predicted this.
MYERS: I did. I said we would not know at this time.
COSTELLO: Let's take a look at the AJC, down to the wire, again.
MYERS: Of course. I'm waiting for the New York papers, because those always have great, great headlines.
COSTELLO: Especially "The Post."
MYERS: And you know, so far, so good, on most of the bad things that could have happened. I mean we really haven't heard about all those ugly things that could have been predicted, and in many places were predicted.
(WEATHER FORECAST) COSTELLO: We want to take a look at the electoral map, just to bring our viewers up to date on what is happening now. As you can see the South is solidly red for President Bush. Mostly the Northeast and, of course, far out West solidly in the blue for John Kerry.
And you can see those states that we do not have results for. That would be New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, still too close to call because of those provisional ballots. We're going talk about that in just a second.
But technically, 254 electoral votes for President Bush; 252 electoral votes for Senator John Kerry.
Let's move on to the numbers from Ohio, you can see why it is too close to call; 51 percent to 49 percent, provisional ballots are still out there. I guess they have counted the absentee ballots. That is what Wolf Blitzer has been reporting all morning long.
But those provisional ballots, those ballots where voters go to the polls, find they're not the registered, their given a provisional ballot, then it is decided later those ballots, some 75,000 to 250,000 of them will not be counted for 11 eleven days. Don't know if that will make a difference.
But according to Ohio state law, a number of votes won't even start to be counted for 10 or more days, but I just said that.
Let's go out to Stark County now and Adaora Udoji, who has been there for, oh what seems 24 to 48 hours.
Good morning, Adaora.
ADAORA UDOJI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.
Well it seems analysts certainly got one thing right.
COSTELLO: What's that?
UDOJI: Well, many thought it would come down to this, that Ohio was just that critical and that these 20 electoral votes were just going to be key.
And of course, we're talking about provisional ballots. And they only matter, as you pointed out, if the margin between the two candidates -- if there are more provisional ballots than the margin between the two candidates.
And the bottom line for the State of Ohio is that, unlike other states, where provisional ballots are new, Ohio has been using them for the past 10 years. In fact, in the year 2000 there were 120,000 provisional ballots. And they have been counting them without incident over these years.
The big question is, how many? As I just said. And earlier the Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said he wasn't sure because some of the numbers were still coming in. But at that time he said it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that they were 200,000 or so, plus or minus. But again that could be much less.
Here's the potential problem. I mean there are some potential thorny legal issues in here. And that is, from what we understand, and what the secretary of state's office has told us in the past is that there are 88 counties in the State of Ohio and each board of election in those counties counts these provisional ballots in their own way. In other words, there is not a uniform process.
And as you mentioned, or just keeping in mind, the provisionals are people who show up at polls that are not on an official record. And they are allowed to vote and afterwards they're put in a separate pile and officials will go through them and figure out if that person, that the age requirements, their residency requirements, the nationality requirements, and if they do, then they count them.
But if they don't, if there is some issue about any of those things then they're not counted and clearly there would be room to squabble there, given how much litigation we've seen here the past week.
COSTELLO: But Adaora, President Bush is leading by more than 100,000 votes in Ohio right now. Will it really make that much of a difference? Are there that many provisional ballots still out there?
UDOJI: I guess that is the big question. That is just what we don't know at this point. And we should add, also, that it is not just the provisional ballots, it is also the overseas ballots. I mean, as I said in 2000 there were 120,000 provisional ballots and I think, or at least the secretary of state's office has been telling us for the past couple of days that they were expecting that there would be more this time around.
And we should also keep in mind that so far the numbers look like they are somewhere around 700,000 more voters this time than there was in 2000. So, it is just not clear how many provisional ballots are out there.
COSTELLO: And then you have the other question, because I know most of Ohio, at least 70 percent of Ohio uses punch card ballots. But the state has used those kind of ballots for years, never had any problem. But this year, who knows?
UDOJI: I think that is exactly right. And obviously, as we all learned in 2000, once the microscope is lasered in on any particular state then there are all kinds of issues that potentially become points of argument. Clearly if it turns out that there are far less provisional ballots then all of these issues go away. But if there are more provisional ballots, then that roughly 140,000 difference between President Bush and Senator Kerry, then who know?
COSTELLO: OK, a final question for you, at least for right now, when will we know more? Do we have to wait those 11 days to find out the final vote tally in Ohio, or will we know something sooner?
UDOJI: Well, Carol, it is my understanding that actually these board of elections have 10 days to go through these provisional ballots and make a determination. And it is on the 11th day that those results are certified. So, again, depending on how many there are and how these various boards go about counting those provisional ballots not clear when we would know.
COSTELLO: You are going to be in Ohio for a good long time, Adaora.
UDOJI: Thanks, Carol.
(LAUGHTER)
COSTELLO: It is my hometown, though, it's nice there. Go to the Hall of Fame, the Pro-Football Hall of Fame.
UDOJI: Oh, but wait a second, speaking of your home, of course, Stark County, we're here in Stark County. And this is the county with a record of voting with the winner nine out of the 10 past presidential elections, the past 40 years. And this time it was close but in Stark County it appears that Kerry was up 51 percent to Bush's 49 percent. So, if President Bush wins then this would be a year that Stark County just didn't stay true to its history.
COSTELLO: Interesting.
You know my father lives in Stark County and I told him to go down to the polls and if he was met by challengers or monitors, I wanted to know about it. He didn't have any problems though. He went at lunchtime.
UDOJI: Yes, well things went very smoothly here in Stark County, we are told.
COSTELLO: That's good to know. Adaora Udoji, we'll get back to you. Thank you so much.
All events, of course, on hold while the Ohio situation shakes out. President Bush stayed up all night in the White House keeping a close eye on the race. For the latest from Washington let's bring in CNN's Dana Bash.
At last check with you Dana, we were awaiting word from Andy Card, actually.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That is where we are, still, Carol. We're still waiting for Andy Card, the White House chief of staff. He should be here at the Ronald Reagan Building very shortly.
The folks here, the few folks who are still here, who have been here for hours and hours, still -- since last night -- awaiting for President Bush to come and speak to them, were just told about a half an hour ago that they are instead going to get his chief of staff because things are just too up in the air in terms of Ohio and in terms of Mexico.
And here's Andy Card. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ... my pleasure to introduce to you this morning, the chief of staff to the president of the United States, the Honorable Andrew Card.
(APPLAUSE)
ANDY CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: Thank you. Thank you very much.
I want to thank all of you for staying up so late with us, and good morning.
I'm Andy Card. I'm President Bush's chief of staff.
We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election with at least 286 electoral college votes.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CARD: And he also had a margin of more than 3.5 million popular votes.
(APPLAUSE)
President Bush's decisive margin of victory makes this the first presidential election since 1988 in which the winner received the majority of the popular vote.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
And in this election President Bush received more votes than any presidential candidate in our country's history.
(APPLAUSE)
Republicans also scored other great victories in this election. We won important victories adding to our majority in the House and adding to our majority in the Senate.
(APPLAUSE)
In Ohio, President Bush, has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the provisional ballots are considered.
(APPLAUSE)
So, President Bush has won the State of Ohio!
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
President Bush has also been declared the winner in Nevada. The other victories that he has had will be added with the strong showing of margins that we are looking at in Iowa and New Mexico. And we're also going to put those states in the winner's column as well. (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
This all ads up to a convincing electoral college victory, as well as a strong endorsement of President Bush by his fellow Americans in the popular vote.
President Bush decided to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of this election. The president will be making a statement later today.
Again, I thank all of you who stayed up these many hours waiting for the opportunity to celebrate this victory. And I also thank all of the volunteers, all across this great country, that worked so hard.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
But most importantly I thank the many voters who participated in this important election. It was a great celebration of our democracy.
Thank you and God bless you.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
Thank you.
BASH: And there you hear the president's chief of staff giving an address here to the supporters at the Ronald Reagan Building, the supporters were waiting to hear from the president himself, but he made clear that the reason the president is not here is only because he wants to do this out of respect for Senator Kerry.
But he does believe, as Andy Card said, that the president did win a decisive victory for a second term in office not only with the electoral college saying that he believe he won 286 electoral votes, at this time, but also in terms of the popular vote saying that he won a decisive victory in the popular vote.
He believes, perhaps, the most decisive victory in the nation's history. So, Andy Card making clear that although the president has not, again, done it himself, he will later on today make a speech and they are going to wait for Senator Kerry to come out, out of respect for him. Because they obviously are saying that they believe this is a victory.
COSTELLO: You are not kidding. But let's jump back a bit. Because Ohio is too close to call of course. We are not calling President Bush the winner of the State of Ohio. Those provisional ballots are still out there. The ballots from overseas are still coming in. But of course, as you heard Andy Card says, the president has some 120,000 vote lead in the State of Ohio.
Also, in Iowa, in Iowa, they went to bed. They had problems with voting machines and they said the poll workers were too tired. So, they went to bed. We won't know the outcome of that state tomorrow. And in New Mexico, there are just so many votes to count, they're still counting. So, I guess I'm wondering how Andy Card can come out and definitely say that?
BASH: Well, if you heard him say that the secretary of state has told the White House, according to him, that he doesn't believe that, statistically, John Kerry can win. That is something we have been hearing from Bush aides all evening, all morning, I should say. That they believe that no matter how you slice it given the number of provisional ballots, mathematically, because the president has the lead that he has in Ohio, that it still wouldn't make a difference. That is what they believe.
Of course, Senator Kerry, seems, they are saying that is simply not true and obviously that is why we're sitting here and we're waiting and we're going to figure out what happens later today.
All you need is Ohio, given what the president already has, decisively. Now to cross the 270 threshold, to give the president what he needs in the electoral college.
And the other states are certainly open questions at this point. So, you know, again, Carol, we don't know. You made a very good point, that we are not, CNN is not calling Ohio. We are going to wait, see how things play out. We're being very cautious here. But the White House is not.
COSTELLO: And you are right, Ohio has 20 electoral votes. If you add up Iowa, New Mexico, that is only 12 electoral votes. So, if the president only wins Ohio, that puts him at the number he needs to win electorally.
You know, I have to laugh. The crowd is gone from behind you. They cleared out fast, didn't they?
BASH: They did. They were almost gone before Andy Card got here. I'll tell you. They were here -- they really, they were here very long and they were very rowdy up until about 3:00 in the morning. And then that was it. They were sleeping on the floor, they were waiting and as soon as they heard the president wasn't coming most people left.
COSTELLO: Did most people at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, you know standing there, waiting for a definitive win by President Bush. Did they expect it to be this close?
BASH: Well, they certainly hoped it wasn't going to be this close. But you know given what happened four years ago, given the incredible margins, the very narrow margins of all of the public polling, leading up to today. Certainly people thought that this was a possibility. But they sort of hoped against hope that this wouldn't happen.
COSTELLO: Dana Bash reporting live from Washington, D.C. I'm sure we'll be getting back to you soon. Thank you.
You are watching DAYBREAK. We'll take a short break. We'll be right back with much more.
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COSTELLO: Both parties knew the outcome of the campaign could hinge on Ohio. Democrats have already thousands of lawyers in the state, but it is still unclear how they will react to the dispute over provisional ballots, or even if there will be a dispute.
CNN election analyst Ken Gross is here to talk more about legal matters.
Good morning, Ken.
KEN GROSS, CNN ELECTION ANALYST: Good morning.
COSTELLO: So, you heard Andy Card. Do you disagree with anything he said?
GROSS: Well, it may be overly optimistic. I mean, it is not over yet. Obviously, Senator Kerry has a tremendous uphill battle. I think the math doesn't quite work exactly the way Andy Card said. It appears to be, I've heard different numbers. And I guess we haven't settled exactly how many provisional ballots there are out there, in addition to absentee ballots that may be coming in from around the state and around the world.
COSTELLO: Well, Andy ...
GROSS: So -- go ahead.
COSTELLO: Andy Card said that the president is leading in Ohio by some 130,000 votes. We don't even know how many provisional ballots are out there, or how many ballots are coming in from overseas?
GROSS: That's right. So, the math, I think, still is unresolved. Because I've heard estimates, including from the secretary of state of Ohio, who is Republican, that they do exceed that number of 130,000. So, statistically, mathematically, if things break in Senator Kerry's direction, there is a possibility of pulling this out.
But I don't want to make it sound like it is a likelihood, because really everything has to break in his favor. But this process will take some time. And during that time other challenges could arise.
COSTELLO: So, explain to our viewers, provisional ballots. That is people who go into the polls, find their not on the registration list, so they are given a provisional ballot. And then the state figures it out later. How much of a trauma will that be?
GROSS: Well, you know, it is a good question because, ironically, provisional ballots was a remedy to some of the problems that we saw in Florida in 2000. What was happening back then was that people were going to the polls, they weren't on the registration list, and they were turned away. And then it turned out that they should have been able to vote, it was just some sort of computer error that they weren't on the list.
So, we have now given them the opportunity to vote. Unfortunately it is quite a large number as we're seeing well in excess of 100,000 votes, likely. So, they are put aside on a separate pile and then once the vote of the people who voted in the regular way are counted, they get to these provisional ballots. And then they have to check each one to see if they should have been counted as a valid vote and when they do tally them up it does go into the total mix. And it is possible it could change the outcome.
COSTELLO: Oh, see, all those lawyers out there. I could just smell a lawsuit.
Thank you very much. Ken Gross, you will be back with us to talk more about this stuff.
GROSS: Sure.
COSTELLO: A little problem in the State of Ohio this morning. But let's take a look at the balance of power in the U.S. Senate now.
Heading into this election, the balance of power was 51 Republicans to 48 Democrats, one senator an independent, votes Democratic -- that independent senator, I should say, usually votes on the Democratic side.
The Republicans will retain control of the Senate. And that is because of the outcome of all of the elections held for the Senate across the country. On the other side of the Capitol building, the jobs of all 435 House members were on the line.
And as you can see, the balance of power there, 228 Republicans to 199 Democrats, so the balance of power here, way more on the Republican side. And it appears the Republicans have also picked up a few seats of the House.
But let's talk about exactly what happened in this election fallout. Chuck Todd the editor of "The National Journal"/"The Hotline", joins us from Washington for that.
Good morning.
CHUCK TODD, EDITOR, "THE HOTLINE": Good morning.
COSTELLO: I guess the biggest shock is that Tom Daschle was knocked out of the Senate.
TODD: Yes, it is.
COSTELLO: At least we think so, right now.
TODD: Well, yes. Well, no, in South Dakota 6,000 votes is a landslide. John Thune lost his 2002 race by about 500 votes, so a 6,000 vote victory is a big deal out there.
Yes, that is the big loss -- that is definitely the big loss for the Democrats.
COSTELLO: So, what does this mean for the Democrats, especially in the Senate?
TODD: Well, it is going to be, look there is a huge leadership vacuum in the entire Democratic Party. I mean, you know, let's -- you know, the handwriting is on the wall in Ohio, despite what the Kerry folks are trying to do, but assuming Ohio doesn't switch, then basically the two leading Democrats in the Democratic Party, John Kerry and Tom Daschle, will have lost. And there will be a huge vacuum.
Harry Reid a Democratic senator from Nevada is somebody that is going to try and fill it. Chris Dodd, a Democratic senator from Connecticut, he'll try to fill it. And then you've got the Hillary factor. What is the Hillary Clinton going to do? And so, it is not clear who runs the Democratic Party after -- if John Kerry doesn't win this contesting Ohio. And it is a big problem for the Democrats.
COSTELLO: You're not kidding, because you know, you say Harry Reid from Nevada, nobody's ever heard of him.
TODD: That's right.
COSTELLO: And that's a problem, isn't it? I mean, perceptually, across the country, for people -- for the voters, I guess?
TODD: No, they need someone that is -- that's right. And Hillary Clinton is going to be the person that a lot of Democrats gravitate to, because she's a familiar face and a familiar person. But she's geographically challenged, being from New York State, where clearly the biggest problem for the Democrats is they just are out of touch with the Southern part of this country and the center part of this country. Because that is where they lost states in the presidential race and that is where they lost states in the Senate races.
COSTELLO: Of course, President Bush won Florida. And if you take a look at the map, ooh, there is an awful lot of red states in the South.
TODD: A ton of red. I mean it's hard to find the blue. It is all sort of like, it is sort of on the outline of the country. It really is a big problem, the Democrats have.
COSTELLO: So, before you go and come back again later.
TODD: OK.
COSTELLO: I just want to know from you, what has been the biggest surprise, last night, election night?
TODD: Well, I think the fact that President Bush had such a huge popular vote victory. I mean, I think, a lot of people thought he could win the electoral college. I don't think a lot of people expected the big popular vote victory that he got. That is a big mandate.
And you know, we're calling this a provisional landslide. We have the provisional ballots, but Republicans won everything. And I don't think the party is getting enough credit right now, because of what's going on in Ohio. But to sweep those Southern Senate races, to pick up seats in the House, when they were actually playing more defense than offense. It is a big night for the Republicans.
COSTELLO: Chuck Todd, from "The National Journal". Thank you. Of course, you'll join us again later on DAYBREAK.
TODD: You got it.
COSTELLO: The reason candidates make multiple trips to New Mexico and never stop in New York. Just ahead we'll take a look at the electoral college and talk about if it's days are numbered.
You're watching DAYBREAK for Wednesday, November 3.
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