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Election not Decided; Democrats' Future; Waiting on Ohio

Aired November 03, 2004 - 9:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDREW CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: President Bush decided to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of this election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. The White House declaring that President Bush has won his reelection. But apparently it's not as easy as that so far.

Ohio is the fly in the ointment in 2004. Twenty electoral votes now still sitting unclaimed at this hour. And now John Kerry is checking out the votes, with a huge decision to make on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

HUGHES: Good morning everyone, from Columbus, Ohio, to New York City. 9:00 here in New York.

Good morning, Soledad. You've made it to the Buckeye State. How are you?

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, we have. We're doing just great. And we are busy because , of course, this morning we have no president-elect. Four years ago it was Florida. This year it's the state of Ohio that in the end will decide the winner.

Let's take a look at the electoral board. Right now, CNN is projecting President Bush the winner of 254 electoral votes. He needs 270 to win a second term.

Senator Kerry has 252 electoral votes. And despite races that are still too close to call in Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa, the Bush campaign is claiming those states for the Republicans.

Of course neither Iowa and/or New Mexico are enough to win the election. It's going to take Ohio's 20 electoral votes to make it to the White House. At issue here in Ohio, tens of thousands of provisional and absentee ballots that could take days to count.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KENNETH BLACKWELL (R), OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE: This is a very deliberate and conscious process, and so, you know, I tell everybody just take a deep breath and relax. We can't predict what the results are going to be. We can only guarantee that you you're going to get an honest and fair count through our bipartisan system.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: That's Ken Blackwell. He is the secretary of state here in Ohio.

The Kerry campaign still feels that the election is hanging in the balance. Republicans, though, are urging Senator Kerry to concede the race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: It can't be done. I mean, you've got to face reality. I mean, the president leads by 136,000 votes. That's not a slim lead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: That, of course, was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, joining many Republicans who are saying just numbers-wise it is impossible for Senator Kerry to proclaim victory, and encouraging the senator to concede the race. We're hearing that the Kerry camp are in meetings this morning, and we're expecting to hear something officially at 10:00 Eastern Time -- Bill.

HEMMER: All right, Soledad. Also getting a little more information here from CNN. We're playing the numbers game here, so bear with us.

At last check in Ohio, there were 135,000 outstanding provisional ballots. Now we are told, of that number, some have been counted at this point. And George Bush apparently has gained 13,000 votes, and John Kerry has gained 6,000 votes. So a margin of difference that goes in George Bush's favor by about 7,000 votes.

And we can expect as we go throughout the day these numbers can change back and forth depending on the information that comes out of Ohio. Bottom line is it is still in George Bush's column, but, again, too close to call at this point.

With that as a backdrop, let's get back to Boston and Kelly Wallace.

Kelly, what are you learning now this hour?

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, again, Bill, we are expecting some sort of update from the Kerry campaign at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, less than an hour from now. The first signs really of what will be the next step for the campaign.

Aides say they are talking to their staffers in Ohio and also talking to the experts. The top adviser to Senator Kerry telling me earlier this morning, the campaign would be looking to see "what are the realistic prospects when you look at the numbers of turning Ohio around."

This, as this campaign, 24 hours ago was incredibly confident. Well, then last night that confidence turning to a great deal of concern.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE (voice-over): A sign the Kerry campaign had no intention of conceding. It was John Edwards, not John Kerry, going before supporters in Boston at 2:30 a.m. local time.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been a long night, but we've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.

John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that, in this election, every vote would count and every vote would be counted.

WALLACE: The senator never mentioned Ohio, but that's Camp Kerry's focus. In a statement, campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said, "There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

Senator Kerry remained out of sight, huddled inside his Boston townhouse with his family and staff. The dramatic developments following a day where the senator's advisers, looking at exit polling, had an air of confidence.

JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: We remain encouraged.

WALLACE: Senator Kerry, however, kept to his motto of taking nothing for granted, spending four hours doing 38 interviews with television stations in battleground states, including New Mexico.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, it isn't over yet. I'm still working. I'm still asking people to go out and vote.

WALLACE: In recent days, the senator told reporters he expected the election to be resolved last night. Yesterday, after casting his ballot, he told reporters no matter the outcome he was hopeful.

KERRY: And we will move forward no matter what, because that's who we are as Americans and that's what we need to do.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE: And so now Senator Kerry facing the decision, does he continue to question the vote count in Ohio, or does he decide to concede this election to President Bush? Again, Bill, we should get the first indications of what the senator is planning to do less than an hour from now here in Boston -- Bill.

HEMMER: OK, Kelly. Kelly, thanks for that in Boston.

To the White House now and Suzanne Malveaux. What are you hearing this hour, Suzanne? Good morning there.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning, Bill.

Bush aides tell us that the president got a couple hours of sleep. But he is back in the Oval Office at this hour. He is meeting with his top aides to discuss just what kind of course of action they take next.

We have been told the president is going to address the American people later today. That he is going to declare victory. That he is simply out of respect for Kerry giving him a chance to basically digest these results.

But it was earlier today, about 5:30 in the morning, when his chief of staff, Andy Card, went to the Ronald Reagan building to address those thousands of fans of the president and to give them a very clear message, saying that they -- their results show that the president has 286 electoral votes, that the president has a 3.5 million margin in the popular vote, and this is a decisive margin of victory.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARD: In Ohio, President Bush has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable, even after the provisional ballots are considered.

(APPLAUSE)

CARD: So President Bush has won the state of Ohio!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Now, early in the evening it was really a Bush family reunion at the White House, the residence. The president gathered, watching the results with his family and closest friends.

The president saying, "I believe I will win" when he was asked about the outcome, the possible outcome of all of this. But as you know, it quickly turned into a strategy, a high-powered strategy session to figure out what to do next.

Originally, the president was going to address his fans, his support base, early last -- early morning, late last night. But it was decided that it was best to pull back, to wait just a little bit longer to make sure that the American people were convinced that this was a legitimate process, a legitimate win -- Bill.

HEMMER: Suzanne, thanks. Keep us posted there when you get more from the White House, all right?

This election has been a big blow to Democrats. George Bush won the popular vote by almost four million votes. The Republicans had a clear majority in both houses of Congress, and the numbers favor the president right now in Ohio.

So then, what now for Democrats? Jeff Greenfield has been up all night. He's back with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

Good morning to you. As a backdrop there, where does this race leave the Democratic Party this morning?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: It leaves it in a very, very painful situation. I mean, you now have the Republican Party in charge of both houses of Congress for a dozen years, not counting Jim Jeffords' temporary walk across the aisle.

Four years after they won the popular vote and gained five Senate seats, and lost the White House only through the flukiest of flukes, they now won 3.5 million votes down in the popular vote. And, as you say, were clobbered in the Congress.

And more important, I think, they have to look at what the country is saying to them as a party. One of the reasons why -- according to our resident genius, Bill Schneider, one of the reasons why what happened happened was, yes, the Democrats got their base out, but so did the Republicans.

And Karl Rove's strategy turned out to be right. That is, millions of people were voting against the Democratic Party and its candidates on values, not on specific policies, not on health care, prescription drugs, Social Security.

They were listening to the Democratic Party and saying, as more and more one-time Democrats have said over the past couple of decades, you don't speak for me on values, on culture, on a gut level. And I think one of the things the Democratic Party has to do is figure out why this has happened to them. And they still, in my view, seem tone deaf to this, except when you get a guy like Bill Clinton, who comes along once in a generation.

HEMMER: Marc Racicot with us two hours ago. He believes the get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of Republicans -- he works for the Bush team, by the way -- proved the difference in this.

He said they had 1.2 million volunteers. In the final days of this campaign, they contacted 18 million voters.

GREENFIELD: Yes, but see, that's fine. And that's a tactical question. That doesn't explain why they were able to get those people out to vote.

The Democrats, as I said, got their vote out, too, with their 527 organizations. They put them out. The question is why were these people willing to go out and vote against in so many cases the party of their parents?

You know, at one point in the South the reason 40 years ago was race with white Democrats. We're way beyond that now.

In rural and small-town America, in Ohio, in Missouri, in state after state, people who the Democrats say should vote for them on economic and policy grounds aren't doing it. And it isn't even specific cultural grounds like abortion, although sometimes it can be, or gun ownership.

It's a whole broader question that in my view -- and people have written books about, people have talked about this for years -- there is something about the Democratic Party, its candidates, by and large, and its whole approach to the lives that ordinary people lead that these folks don't hear the Democrats -- I'm sorry, these people do not hear the Democrats talking to them about the life they lead and the values they hold.

HEMMER: A bit later I want to talk about why you think John Kerry's message did not resonate. But I also want to pick up something that yesterday afternoon was just flying all over the place, news rooms across America, all over these Internet Web sites. That was the exit polling.

GREENFIELD: Yes.

HEMMER: That seemed to favor John Kerry, and then we were told to hang on, this polling may not be so accurate. So keep your powder dry. What was happening there?

GREENFIELD: In fairness -- and again, I'm quoting Bill Schneider -- first wave of exit polls, they come in about 1:00. All -- every journalist and every political operative immediately gets the numbers, and all we look at is, you know, Kerry up this much, and Kerry up 16 in Minnesota, Kerry up this in Florida.

The experts will tell you, don't look at these numbers for projections because they can be wildly off. Exit polls are used to analyze how voters vote. You know, what did union household members do, what did Jews, Catholics and Protestants do.

But we never listen. And the minute those numbers get out, it goes right into the political junkie bloodstream and people are calling each other with the numbers. And I was hearing Republicans saying, "Oh, I knew it. My guy's lost."

I don't think it effected the coverage. Certainly we didn't report them. But it's something that, you know, we misuse when we call our friends and neighbors and say, "Did you hear Kerry is the next president? Who's the next secretary of state?"

HEMMER: Listen, kudos to this network for holding off on Ohio.

GREENFIELD: I'm very proud of what we didn't do.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff.

GREENFIELD: OK.

HEMMER: Heidi.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Want to go ahead and get a look at some of the other headlines, election headlines, that is. Republicans expanding their control of the U.S. Senate. Democrat Tom Daschle has become the first Senate leader in a half a century to be voted out of office. Former Republican Representative John Thune takes his spot.

In Louisiana, David Vitter becomes the first Republican senator since the end of reconstruction. He takes a seat vacated by Democrat John Breaux.

And a Democratic victory in Illinois. Barack Obama defeats Republican challenger Alan Keyes there.

Well, three states had measures on the ballot to give the green light for the legalization of medical marijuana. Voters in Montana passed the measure by nearly two to one margin. And similar measures were on the ballots in Alaska and Oregon but were voted down in those two states.

And voters in California voted to pass funding for stem cell research, a measure supported by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger told a crowd in Los Angeles last night, Election Day is when voters can "flex their muscles and make California stronger." The state approved a $3 billion bond issue to pay for 10 years of stem cell research.

And world leaders watching election results offered their congratulations.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I'm sure the whole House would join with me in sending our warmest congratulations to President Karzai of Afghanistan.

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: The British prime minister, Tony Blair, congratulating Afghan President Hamid Karzai on his election win. Karzai was declared the winner of Afghanistan's first ever presidential election after investigators found no wrongdoing there.

Time now to go back to Soledad.

O'BRIEN: All right, Heidi. Thanks.

Still to come this morning, tens of thousands of provisional ballots still need to be counted in Ohio. Will it be enough, though, to make a difference for Senator John Kerry? Jeff Toobin has a legal look at that.

And for the first time in 52 years, a Senate party leader is taking a fall. A closer look at what happened to Tom Daschle ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Want to show you this incredible blaze burning now in Upper Marlboro, Maryland. That's southeast of Washington, Prince George's County.

Firefighters on the scene there. A three-alarm blaze. This is the county courthouse in Upper Marlboro.

We are told that about 100 firefighters now battling this blaze. There is also an indication that apparently the fire started on the roof in an older section of the building, and apparently that building is being renovated. So that does not look good.

Prince George's County outside of Washington, D.C. We will watch that as the blaze continues there.

In the meantime, though, further west all eyes remain on Ohio today. Counties there under order to report how many provisional ballots they received by 2:00 today, which on the clock is about five hours -- less than five hours from now. Counting of those ballots, however, will not begin until tomorrow, we are told.

Back to our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, to try to figure out what the options are here at this point for the Kerry campaign.

What can John Kerry do, Jeff?

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SR. LEGAL ANALYST: Well, let's just sort of define the parameters of the problem. He's behind by 136,000 votes, so he needs to find 136,000 new votes with Bush getting none. He needs to net 136,000 votes.

How many provision ballots are out there? It appears that at a minimum there are about 140,000, and the Kerry campaign has told us there may be as many as 250,000.

But how do you net 136,000 votes when there may only be 140,000 provisional votes? And remember, these provisional votes -- people are not always familiar with them -- they are the votes that people cast when they're initially turned down at the polling place, something is wrong with their registration.

So not all of them are going to turn out to be valid. It just doesn't seem like the math can work for Kerry.

HEMMER: That 250,000 figure you put out there, that was put out late last night, early morning hours. That seems to be at the far end or the liberal end of what could or could not be there, correct?

TOOBIN: Correct. It seems much more likely to be 140,000, 150,000, 160,000 provisional ballots. And he's behind by 136,000 votes.

Now, what the Kerry campaign is doing today is they're going back to all 88 counties and they're seeing, well, are these numbers in fact right? You know, sometimes when you go to the counties, you see few votes here and there -- there is also down the road, within 10 days, oversees absentee ballots. It could be a handful, they tend to be military, tend to favor Republicans.

HEMMER: About 2:00 in the morning, I believe it was, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell from Ohio came on the air, was doing a lot of media interviews at that point. He was adamant about the rules and the laws of Ohio and adamant that those rules and those laws would be followed.

The question is, what kind of experience does Ohio have at this point? It goes back about a decade, I believe, right?

TOOBIN: It goes back a reason amount of time. Of course there's never been an election with this scrutiny where they faced it.

HEMMER: Sure.

TOOBIN: But what's interesting about Ohio's provisional ballot experience, which is very different from, say, Illinois, approximately 90 percent of the provisional ballots turn out to be valid votes in the most recent election in...

HEMMER: Why is that different from Illinois?

TOOBIN: Illinois, it was only 10 or 12 percent. Provisional ballots wound up not being counted.

HEMMER: So in the state of Ohio back in 2000, you had what percentage of those provisional ballots that actually went to Al Gore or George Bush or Ralph Nader?

TOOBIN: Bill, I have no idea. I just don't know. I don't know what the split was.

You know, you have to assume that it is roughly in line with the actual -- the vote. Democrats claim a little bit that they will do better because provisional ballots tend to be cast by people who have moved. They're not homeowners, they're renters, they've moved in the neighborhood, they're still in the same polling place, lower income. That's a tough argument.

HEMMER: Thanks for your candor.

TOOBIN: You know what? I'll be sure to tell you lots of things I don't know. Would you like to know some of the things I don't know?

HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff. No, no, no. You're wonderful. Thanks, man.

Here's Soledad back in Columbus, Ohio.

O'BRIEN: All right, Bill. Thanks.

Still to come this morning, the counting potentially won't be over for days, but the long and often nasty campaign is over. Carlos Watson will join us and tell us why the political landscape has been changed by this contest.

Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING, live from the still battleground state of Ohio. We're back in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Want to show you again this picture out of Prince George's County, Upper Marlboro, Maryland, outside of Washington, D.C. A three-alarm blaze at the county courthouse.

Don't have a lot of information, other than to say that 100 firefighters have responded already. And the fire began on the roof, we understand. Part of the building was under renovation.

That could be a reason for the fire, but we do not know because just don't have enough information just yet. We do know this picture tells a pretty tragic story for this courthouse and the situation there in Upper Marlboro, Maryland. More when we get it in a moment -- Heidi.

COLLINS: Well, the morning after, and the country still doesn't have a president. Some would argue this election has been nastier and people have been more polarized than any race in recent history. Well, Carlos Watson, CNN's political analyst, is here with some insight into how this election has transformed politics.

So let's get right to it. What do you think some of the most significant moments throughout this whole process have been?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Oh, boy, you can think of a lot of moments. You can think of Howard Dean's yell, of course.

COLLINS: Yeow!

WATSON: You can think of John Kerry's comeback in New Hampshire. You obviously got to think about the transfer of power in Iraq. You've got to think about the debates, the conventions, and obviously now election night, which is our second consecutive big surprising election night in a row.

COLLINS: Yes. And you know we have some e-mails on all of this of course from today.

Your question was, "Should John Kerry concede? Knowing what we know now, is it time for him to do that?"

Let's get to Barbara from Maine. She says, "If the shoe was on the other foot, President Bush would not concede. This election should turn over every stone to assure voters that the presidency is legitimate. The whole world is watching and we need to get this right."

Then also to Gary, who says, "Kerry has lost the popular vote by four million. For the sake of the country, he needs to do the right thing and concede."

So obviously still, as we were just saying, polarized views here.

WATSON: Polarized. And, you know, Barbara from Maine, you're going to here that from a lot of Democrats who are going to say, look, if four years ago we could go through this process and play by these rules, we should do it this time. And the folks who say, yeah, but four years ago was by half a million. This time around it's by four million.

That's a whopper. That's a whole lot.

And a few other folks will say it's four million, that's only 3, 3.5 percent. Back in 1876, not many people remember, but those who do will say we had a similar situation and we waited that one out, too.

COLLINS: The only reason we wouldn't remember, though, is because we might not have been around.

WATSON: We were sleeping.

COLLINS: Right. Let's go ahead and look at these last two now.

This one from Gisele in New London, Wisconsin, one of the battleground states. "I keep hearing how every vote counts. Our troops in Iraq and around the world won't have a chance to have their voices heard since the election will be over and done before their ballots get here."

Also, from Philip now, "Kerry needs to do the right thing for our country and conceded to W. The drama will continue to play out. So much for the South being John Edwards' backyard. He did not deliver zip, not even his home state of North Carolina."

WATSON: Ooh, zinger. True, didn't deliver North Carolina, and not clear exactly what he ultimately did deliver in terms of a key state. But was an active campaigner and a bright face for the Democrats.

COLLINS: All right. Carlos Watson, thank you.

HEMMER: And the Senate seat he left open has now...

WATSON: Has now flipped.

HEMMER: Gone Republican.

WATSON: One of four that we know about for sure from the South.

COLLINS: It gives Republicans a gain.

HEMMER: You're not going anywhere, by the way, are you?

WATSON: I'm staying.

COLLINS: He can't, he's too tired. WATSON: Got coffee in the back and doughnuts.

HEMMER: Listen, our ride goes two-and-a-half more hours, OK? Glad you're back with us.

WATSON: I'm ready.

HEMMER: Back to Soledad now in Columbus.

Hey, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Hey. You know what? We're staying here.

We've got much more to come from Ohio, where tens of thousands of those provisional ballots could actually affect the outcome of the presidential election.

Plus, what was the biggest surprise of last night's congressional races? We'll take a look at that. All that ahead as we continue right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired November 3, 2004 - 9:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDREW CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: President Bush decided to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of this election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. The White House declaring that President Bush has won his reelection. But apparently it's not as easy as that so far.

Ohio is the fly in the ointment in 2004. Twenty electoral votes now still sitting unclaimed at this hour. And now John Kerry is checking out the votes, with a huge decision to make on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

HUGHES: Good morning everyone, from Columbus, Ohio, to New York City. 9:00 here in New York.

Good morning, Soledad. You've made it to the Buckeye State. How are you?

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, we have. We're doing just great. And we are busy because , of course, this morning we have no president-elect. Four years ago it was Florida. This year it's the state of Ohio that in the end will decide the winner.

Let's take a look at the electoral board. Right now, CNN is projecting President Bush the winner of 254 electoral votes. He needs 270 to win a second term.

Senator Kerry has 252 electoral votes. And despite races that are still too close to call in Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa, the Bush campaign is claiming those states for the Republicans.

Of course neither Iowa and/or New Mexico are enough to win the election. It's going to take Ohio's 20 electoral votes to make it to the White House. At issue here in Ohio, tens of thousands of provisional and absentee ballots that could take days to count.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KENNETH BLACKWELL (R), OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE: This is a very deliberate and conscious process, and so, you know, I tell everybody just take a deep breath and relax. We can't predict what the results are going to be. We can only guarantee that you you're going to get an honest and fair count through our bipartisan system.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: That's Ken Blackwell. He is the secretary of state here in Ohio.

The Kerry campaign still feels that the election is hanging in the balance. Republicans, though, are urging Senator Kerry to concede the race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: It can't be done. I mean, you've got to face reality. I mean, the president leads by 136,000 votes. That's not a slim lead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: That, of course, was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, joining many Republicans who are saying just numbers-wise it is impossible for Senator Kerry to proclaim victory, and encouraging the senator to concede the race. We're hearing that the Kerry camp are in meetings this morning, and we're expecting to hear something officially at 10:00 Eastern Time -- Bill.

HEMMER: All right, Soledad. Also getting a little more information here from CNN. We're playing the numbers game here, so bear with us.

At last check in Ohio, there were 135,000 outstanding provisional ballots. Now we are told, of that number, some have been counted at this point. And George Bush apparently has gained 13,000 votes, and John Kerry has gained 6,000 votes. So a margin of difference that goes in George Bush's favor by about 7,000 votes.

And we can expect as we go throughout the day these numbers can change back and forth depending on the information that comes out of Ohio. Bottom line is it is still in George Bush's column, but, again, too close to call at this point.

With that as a backdrop, let's get back to Boston and Kelly Wallace.

Kelly, what are you learning now this hour?

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, again, Bill, we are expecting some sort of update from the Kerry campaign at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, less than an hour from now. The first signs really of what will be the next step for the campaign.

Aides say they are talking to their staffers in Ohio and also talking to the experts. The top adviser to Senator Kerry telling me earlier this morning, the campaign would be looking to see "what are the realistic prospects when you look at the numbers of turning Ohio around."

This, as this campaign, 24 hours ago was incredibly confident. Well, then last night that confidence turning to a great deal of concern.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE (voice-over): A sign the Kerry campaign had no intention of conceding. It was John Edwards, not John Kerry, going before supporters in Boston at 2:30 a.m. local time.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been a long night, but we've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.

John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that, in this election, every vote would count and every vote would be counted.

WALLACE: The senator never mentioned Ohio, but that's Camp Kerry's focus. In a statement, campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said, "There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

Senator Kerry remained out of sight, huddled inside his Boston townhouse with his family and staff. The dramatic developments following a day where the senator's advisers, looking at exit polling, had an air of confidence.

JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: We remain encouraged.

WALLACE: Senator Kerry, however, kept to his motto of taking nothing for granted, spending four hours doing 38 interviews with television stations in battleground states, including New Mexico.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, it isn't over yet. I'm still working. I'm still asking people to go out and vote.

WALLACE: In recent days, the senator told reporters he expected the election to be resolved last night. Yesterday, after casting his ballot, he told reporters no matter the outcome he was hopeful.

KERRY: And we will move forward no matter what, because that's who we are as Americans and that's what we need to do.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE: And so now Senator Kerry facing the decision, does he continue to question the vote count in Ohio, or does he decide to concede this election to President Bush? Again, Bill, we should get the first indications of what the senator is planning to do less than an hour from now here in Boston -- Bill.

HEMMER: OK, Kelly. Kelly, thanks for that in Boston.

To the White House now and Suzanne Malveaux. What are you hearing this hour, Suzanne? Good morning there.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning, Bill.

Bush aides tell us that the president got a couple hours of sleep. But he is back in the Oval Office at this hour. He is meeting with his top aides to discuss just what kind of course of action they take next.

We have been told the president is going to address the American people later today. That he is going to declare victory. That he is simply out of respect for Kerry giving him a chance to basically digest these results.

But it was earlier today, about 5:30 in the morning, when his chief of staff, Andy Card, went to the Ronald Reagan building to address those thousands of fans of the president and to give them a very clear message, saying that they -- their results show that the president has 286 electoral votes, that the president has a 3.5 million margin in the popular vote, and this is a decisive margin of victory.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARD: In Ohio, President Bush has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable, even after the provisional ballots are considered.

(APPLAUSE)

CARD: So President Bush has won the state of Ohio!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Now, early in the evening it was really a Bush family reunion at the White House, the residence. The president gathered, watching the results with his family and closest friends.

The president saying, "I believe I will win" when he was asked about the outcome, the possible outcome of all of this. But as you know, it quickly turned into a strategy, a high-powered strategy session to figure out what to do next.

Originally, the president was going to address his fans, his support base, early last -- early morning, late last night. But it was decided that it was best to pull back, to wait just a little bit longer to make sure that the American people were convinced that this was a legitimate process, a legitimate win -- Bill.

HEMMER: Suzanne, thanks. Keep us posted there when you get more from the White House, all right?

This election has been a big blow to Democrats. George Bush won the popular vote by almost four million votes. The Republicans had a clear majority in both houses of Congress, and the numbers favor the president right now in Ohio.

So then, what now for Democrats? Jeff Greenfield has been up all night. He's back with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

Good morning to you. As a backdrop there, where does this race leave the Democratic Party this morning?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: It leaves it in a very, very painful situation. I mean, you now have the Republican Party in charge of both houses of Congress for a dozen years, not counting Jim Jeffords' temporary walk across the aisle.

Four years after they won the popular vote and gained five Senate seats, and lost the White House only through the flukiest of flukes, they now won 3.5 million votes down in the popular vote. And, as you say, were clobbered in the Congress.

And more important, I think, they have to look at what the country is saying to them as a party. One of the reasons why -- according to our resident genius, Bill Schneider, one of the reasons why what happened happened was, yes, the Democrats got their base out, but so did the Republicans.

And Karl Rove's strategy turned out to be right. That is, millions of people were voting against the Democratic Party and its candidates on values, not on specific policies, not on health care, prescription drugs, Social Security.

They were listening to the Democratic Party and saying, as more and more one-time Democrats have said over the past couple of decades, you don't speak for me on values, on culture, on a gut level. And I think one of the things the Democratic Party has to do is figure out why this has happened to them. And they still, in my view, seem tone deaf to this, except when you get a guy like Bill Clinton, who comes along once in a generation.

HEMMER: Marc Racicot with us two hours ago. He believes the get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of Republicans -- he works for the Bush team, by the way -- proved the difference in this.

He said they had 1.2 million volunteers. In the final days of this campaign, they contacted 18 million voters.

GREENFIELD: Yes, but see, that's fine. And that's a tactical question. That doesn't explain why they were able to get those people out to vote.

The Democrats, as I said, got their vote out, too, with their 527 organizations. They put them out. The question is why were these people willing to go out and vote against in so many cases the party of their parents?

You know, at one point in the South the reason 40 years ago was race with white Democrats. We're way beyond that now.

In rural and small-town America, in Ohio, in Missouri, in state after state, people who the Democrats say should vote for them on economic and policy grounds aren't doing it. And it isn't even specific cultural grounds like abortion, although sometimes it can be, or gun ownership.

It's a whole broader question that in my view -- and people have written books about, people have talked about this for years -- there is something about the Democratic Party, its candidates, by and large, and its whole approach to the lives that ordinary people lead that these folks don't hear the Democrats -- I'm sorry, these people do not hear the Democrats talking to them about the life they lead and the values they hold.

HEMMER: A bit later I want to talk about why you think John Kerry's message did not resonate. But I also want to pick up something that yesterday afternoon was just flying all over the place, news rooms across America, all over these Internet Web sites. That was the exit polling.

GREENFIELD: Yes.

HEMMER: That seemed to favor John Kerry, and then we were told to hang on, this polling may not be so accurate. So keep your powder dry. What was happening there?

GREENFIELD: In fairness -- and again, I'm quoting Bill Schneider -- first wave of exit polls, they come in about 1:00. All -- every journalist and every political operative immediately gets the numbers, and all we look at is, you know, Kerry up this much, and Kerry up 16 in Minnesota, Kerry up this in Florida.

The experts will tell you, don't look at these numbers for projections because they can be wildly off. Exit polls are used to analyze how voters vote. You know, what did union household members do, what did Jews, Catholics and Protestants do.

But we never listen. And the minute those numbers get out, it goes right into the political junkie bloodstream and people are calling each other with the numbers. And I was hearing Republicans saying, "Oh, I knew it. My guy's lost."

I don't think it effected the coverage. Certainly we didn't report them. But it's something that, you know, we misuse when we call our friends and neighbors and say, "Did you hear Kerry is the next president? Who's the next secretary of state?"

HEMMER: Listen, kudos to this network for holding off on Ohio.

GREENFIELD: I'm very proud of what we didn't do.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff.

GREENFIELD: OK.

HEMMER: Heidi.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Want to go ahead and get a look at some of the other headlines, election headlines, that is. Republicans expanding their control of the U.S. Senate. Democrat Tom Daschle has become the first Senate leader in a half a century to be voted out of office. Former Republican Representative John Thune takes his spot.

In Louisiana, David Vitter becomes the first Republican senator since the end of reconstruction. He takes a seat vacated by Democrat John Breaux.

And a Democratic victory in Illinois. Barack Obama defeats Republican challenger Alan Keyes there.

Well, three states had measures on the ballot to give the green light for the legalization of medical marijuana. Voters in Montana passed the measure by nearly two to one margin. And similar measures were on the ballots in Alaska and Oregon but were voted down in those two states.

And voters in California voted to pass funding for stem cell research, a measure supported by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger told a crowd in Los Angeles last night, Election Day is when voters can "flex their muscles and make California stronger." The state approved a $3 billion bond issue to pay for 10 years of stem cell research.

And world leaders watching election results offered their congratulations.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I'm sure the whole House would join with me in sending our warmest congratulations to President Karzai of Afghanistan.

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: The British prime minister, Tony Blair, congratulating Afghan President Hamid Karzai on his election win. Karzai was declared the winner of Afghanistan's first ever presidential election after investigators found no wrongdoing there.

Time now to go back to Soledad.

O'BRIEN: All right, Heidi. Thanks.

Still to come this morning, tens of thousands of provisional ballots still need to be counted in Ohio. Will it be enough, though, to make a difference for Senator John Kerry? Jeff Toobin has a legal look at that.

And for the first time in 52 years, a Senate party leader is taking a fall. A closer look at what happened to Tom Daschle ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Want to show you this incredible blaze burning now in Upper Marlboro, Maryland. That's southeast of Washington, Prince George's County.

Firefighters on the scene there. A three-alarm blaze. This is the county courthouse in Upper Marlboro.

We are told that about 100 firefighters now battling this blaze. There is also an indication that apparently the fire started on the roof in an older section of the building, and apparently that building is being renovated. So that does not look good.

Prince George's County outside of Washington, D.C. We will watch that as the blaze continues there.

In the meantime, though, further west all eyes remain on Ohio today. Counties there under order to report how many provisional ballots they received by 2:00 today, which on the clock is about five hours -- less than five hours from now. Counting of those ballots, however, will not begin until tomorrow, we are told.

Back to our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, to try to figure out what the options are here at this point for the Kerry campaign.

What can John Kerry do, Jeff?

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SR. LEGAL ANALYST: Well, let's just sort of define the parameters of the problem. He's behind by 136,000 votes, so he needs to find 136,000 new votes with Bush getting none. He needs to net 136,000 votes.

How many provision ballots are out there? It appears that at a minimum there are about 140,000, and the Kerry campaign has told us there may be as many as 250,000.

But how do you net 136,000 votes when there may only be 140,000 provisional votes? And remember, these provisional votes -- people are not always familiar with them -- they are the votes that people cast when they're initially turned down at the polling place, something is wrong with their registration.

So not all of them are going to turn out to be valid. It just doesn't seem like the math can work for Kerry.

HEMMER: That 250,000 figure you put out there, that was put out late last night, early morning hours. That seems to be at the far end or the liberal end of what could or could not be there, correct?

TOOBIN: Correct. It seems much more likely to be 140,000, 150,000, 160,000 provisional ballots. And he's behind by 136,000 votes.

Now, what the Kerry campaign is doing today is they're going back to all 88 counties and they're seeing, well, are these numbers in fact right? You know, sometimes when you go to the counties, you see few votes here and there -- there is also down the road, within 10 days, oversees absentee ballots. It could be a handful, they tend to be military, tend to favor Republicans.

HEMMER: About 2:00 in the morning, I believe it was, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell from Ohio came on the air, was doing a lot of media interviews at that point. He was adamant about the rules and the laws of Ohio and adamant that those rules and those laws would be followed.

The question is, what kind of experience does Ohio have at this point? It goes back about a decade, I believe, right?

TOOBIN: It goes back a reason amount of time. Of course there's never been an election with this scrutiny where they faced it.

HEMMER: Sure.

TOOBIN: But what's interesting about Ohio's provisional ballot experience, which is very different from, say, Illinois, approximately 90 percent of the provisional ballots turn out to be valid votes in the most recent election in...

HEMMER: Why is that different from Illinois?

TOOBIN: Illinois, it was only 10 or 12 percent. Provisional ballots wound up not being counted.

HEMMER: So in the state of Ohio back in 2000, you had what percentage of those provisional ballots that actually went to Al Gore or George Bush or Ralph Nader?

TOOBIN: Bill, I have no idea. I just don't know. I don't know what the split was.

You know, you have to assume that it is roughly in line with the actual -- the vote. Democrats claim a little bit that they will do better because provisional ballots tend to be cast by people who have moved. They're not homeowners, they're renters, they've moved in the neighborhood, they're still in the same polling place, lower income. That's a tough argument.

HEMMER: Thanks for your candor.

TOOBIN: You know what? I'll be sure to tell you lots of things I don't know. Would you like to know some of the things I don't know?

HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff. No, no, no. You're wonderful. Thanks, man.

Here's Soledad back in Columbus, Ohio.

O'BRIEN: All right, Bill. Thanks.

Still to come this morning, the counting potentially won't be over for days, but the long and often nasty campaign is over. Carlos Watson will join us and tell us why the political landscape has been changed by this contest.

Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING, live from the still battleground state of Ohio. We're back in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Want to show you again this picture out of Prince George's County, Upper Marlboro, Maryland, outside of Washington, D.C. A three-alarm blaze at the county courthouse.

Don't have a lot of information, other than to say that 100 firefighters have responded already. And the fire began on the roof, we understand. Part of the building was under renovation.

That could be a reason for the fire, but we do not know because just don't have enough information just yet. We do know this picture tells a pretty tragic story for this courthouse and the situation there in Upper Marlboro, Maryland. More when we get it in a moment -- Heidi.

COLLINS: Well, the morning after, and the country still doesn't have a president. Some would argue this election has been nastier and people have been more polarized than any race in recent history. Well, Carlos Watson, CNN's political analyst, is here with some insight into how this election has transformed politics.

So let's get right to it. What do you think some of the most significant moments throughout this whole process have been?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Oh, boy, you can think of a lot of moments. You can think of Howard Dean's yell, of course.

COLLINS: Yeow!

WATSON: You can think of John Kerry's comeback in New Hampshire. You obviously got to think about the transfer of power in Iraq. You've got to think about the debates, the conventions, and obviously now election night, which is our second consecutive big surprising election night in a row.

COLLINS: Yes. And you know we have some e-mails on all of this of course from today.

Your question was, "Should John Kerry concede? Knowing what we know now, is it time for him to do that?"

Let's get to Barbara from Maine. She says, "If the shoe was on the other foot, President Bush would not concede. This election should turn over every stone to assure voters that the presidency is legitimate. The whole world is watching and we need to get this right."

Then also to Gary, who says, "Kerry has lost the popular vote by four million. For the sake of the country, he needs to do the right thing and concede."

So obviously still, as we were just saying, polarized views here.

WATSON: Polarized. And, you know, Barbara from Maine, you're going to here that from a lot of Democrats who are going to say, look, if four years ago we could go through this process and play by these rules, we should do it this time. And the folks who say, yeah, but four years ago was by half a million. This time around it's by four million.

That's a whopper. That's a whole lot.

And a few other folks will say it's four million, that's only 3, 3.5 percent. Back in 1876, not many people remember, but those who do will say we had a similar situation and we waited that one out, too.

COLLINS: The only reason we wouldn't remember, though, is because we might not have been around.

WATSON: We were sleeping.

COLLINS: Right. Let's go ahead and look at these last two now.

This one from Gisele in New London, Wisconsin, one of the battleground states. "I keep hearing how every vote counts. Our troops in Iraq and around the world won't have a chance to have their voices heard since the election will be over and done before their ballots get here."

Also, from Philip now, "Kerry needs to do the right thing for our country and conceded to W. The drama will continue to play out. So much for the South being John Edwards' backyard. He did not deliver zip, not even his home state of North Carolina."

WATSON: Ooh, zinger. True, didn't deliver North Carolina, and not clear exactly what he ultimately did deliver in terms of a key state. But was an active campaigner and a bright face for the Democrats.

COLLINS: All right. Carlos Watson, thank you.

HEMMER: And the Senate seat he left open has now...

WATSON: Has now flipped.

HEMMER: Gone Republican.

WATSON: One of four that we know about for sure from the South.

COLLINS: It gives Republicans a gain.

HEMMER: You're not going anywhere, by the way, are you?

WATSON: I'm staying.

COLLINS: He can't, he's too tired. WATSON: Got coffee in the back and doughnuts.

HEMMER: Listen, our ride goes two-and-a-half more hours, OK? Glad you're back with us.

WATSON: I'm ready.

HEMMER: Back to Soledad now in Columbus.

Hey, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Hey. You know what? We're staying here.

We've got much more to come from Ohio, where tens of thousands of those provisional ballots could actually affect the outcome of the presidential election.

Plus, what was the biggest surprise of last night's congressional races? We'll take a look at that. All that ahead as we continue right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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