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American Morning

Yasser Arafat's Failing Health; Democrats Regroup; Inside the Campaigns

Aired November 04, 2004 - 07:28   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. Just about half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
As happy as Republicans are right now, Democrats are just as unhappy, losing ground across the spectrum of American politics. This morning we talk with "CROSSFIRE'S" Paul Begala about what the party has to do now to start winning more elections down the road.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Also in a moment, Soledad, we're looking today at some of the challenges the Bush administration are now facing regarding Iran. Ken Pollack has just written a book about that topic and that country, with us talking about military force and other possible scenarios regarding Tehran. So we'll talk to Ken this morning.

O'BRIEN: Let's get a look at the headlines this morning. Daryn Kagan is at the CNN center for us.

Hey, Daryn, good morning.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad.

"Now in the News."

There are conflicting reports about Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition. Senior Palestinian officials tell CNN that Arafat has been in a coma since last night. But chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat says that those reports are rumors and that Arafat is in stable but difficult condition. No confirmation from doctors on either report. We will be going live to Paris later in the program.

World leaders are reacting to President Bush's re-election win. British Prime Minister Tony Blair congratulating the president and calling for a new alliance between the U.S. and European allies. Prime Minister Blair pledged continued support for the U.S.-led war on terror and stressed renewed commitment to the Middle East peace process.

There's a new report claiming crucial evidence for a war crimes trial of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein may have been lost. The watchdog group, Human Rights Watch, says that U.S.-led troops were unable to stop people from stealing thousands of official documents belonging to the Saddam regime. The group also claims that troops failed to safeguard mass gravesites, which could be used as evidence. The Pentagon says it has not yet reviewed that report. And how about some sports news for you? A former New York Yankees coach is moving across town. Willie Randolph joining the ranks of Major League managers today. The Mets will make it official at a news conference this afternoon. Randolph served as a Yankees coach for 11 years. Also played with them as a second baseman, but spent his final season playing for the Mets back in 1992. He has his work cut out for him. Of course, the Mets, two last-place finishes, followed last year by a fourth in the NLE.

HEMMER: The stepchild in this town.

KAGAN: Well, there's lots of room for improvement. How about that for a positive start?

O'BRIEN: That's a way to put it.

KAGAN: Yes.

HEMMER: Thank you, Daryn.

I want to get to Paris straight away. There are various reports, and mixed reports, too, about the condition of Yasser Arafat's health. In Paris, Fionnuala Sweeney is watching that for us.

And, Fionnuala, good afternoon there. What are you hearing?

FIONNUALA SWEENEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon.

You say, Bill, mixed and conflicting reports and varying reports. And indeed I think that is the order of the day here.

I can tell you what we do know. There was a sudden deterioration in the 75-year-old Palestinian leader's health yesterday evening. And he is in intensive care.

We have been awaiting for at least a couple of hours now a news conference, which should take place behind us. And that was canceled, we were told, temporarily. But now we're hearing from the hospital that there are no plans for any kind of news conference giving an update on Yasser Arafat's health.

So what we are depending on and relying on are our contacts with sources here in the delegation with Yasser Arafat in Paris and also our sources in Ramallah. And depending to whom you speak, he is either in and out of consciousness. He certainly is in intensive care. There are those in Ramallah who say that he is merely being sedated, while tests continue to find out what exactly is wrong with him.

But until the doctors actually come out and make a definitive diagnosis about his condition, it would be rather rash to speculate as to what has happened. But what we do know from people I have been speaking to here in the delegation is that his condition is critical -- Bill.

HEMMER: All right, Fionnuala. Fionnuala Sweeney updating us there from Paris.

Now -- Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Well, after a bitter campaign, one of the biggest challenges for President Bush will be to unite a divided nation. Accompanied by the first lady, his daughters and the vice president yesterday during his victory speech, Mr. Bush once again appealed to Democrats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support, and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: In a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, 57 percent of those polled said they think the president will be a uniter in his second term, 39 percent feel he's going to be a divider. A majority of those polled said that President Bush should emphasize partisan programs, while 30 percent want him to advance the Republican agenda.

What about the Democratic agenda? A record number of Americans voted for Democrat John Kerry, a sign of great desire for change in America. But after losing the White House and seats in both chambers on Capitol Hill, it seems that the Democrats have some re-evaluating to do.

Paul Begala is a former advisor to President Clinton and a co- host of CNN's "CROSSFIRE." He joins us from Fort Lauderdale Florida, this morning.

Hey, Paul, good morning to you.

PAUL BEGALA, CNN CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Hey, Soledad. How are you?

O'BRIEN: I'm well, thank you. Lots of myths, I think, exploded during this election. There was a myth that that if there was a big turnout, it would go to the Democrats. There was a myth that if it was a nasty campaign that the negativity would turn everybody off. Both of those things not true. What's your read on that?

BEGALA: Well, you're right on both counts. There was a high turnout. I and a lot of other people thought a high turnout had to favor the challenger. People don't stand in line for three hours to vote for more of the same. Well, it turns out they do, or an awful lot of them do. And that is to the great credit of the Bush campaign, and Karl Rove is the chief architect of that campaign.

But the negativity was a particular favorite of mine. Of course, I host "CROSSFIRE." There is this great theory out there that nasty, mean, bitter campaigns depress voter turnout. Well, now we know the opposite that the meaner the campaign, the greater the turnout. You know, I remember, I worked for Bill Clinton. When he ran against Bob Dole, it was the most gentlemanly presidential election of my lifetime. Two guys who respected each other, who personally liked each other and who remain friends today. And it was the lowest turnout in the last 50 years. This was the meanest campaign and the highest turnout. So I say more negative campaigning.

O'BRIEN: Not everybody is doing that kind of math today, Paul, I'll tell you that. But Democrats, what do they take away from this, and the fact that a 3.5 million voter margin going to President Bush? How are Democrats assessing, is what I'm trying to say, the day after the day after?

BEGALA: A couple ways. First, I think that they believe they have the right economic message, perhaps didn't deliver it as forcefully. I think a lot of Democrats believe that they should have been clearer about the war. When John Kerry spoke powerfully about the war, he moved up. He was 11 points behind. He started attacking President Bush on the war and then he tied him.

But the piece that the Democrats, I think, are reassessing most carefully is the social cultural elitism that my party suffers from. All of those folks in those red states, a whole lot of them feel like there are elitist snobs in the Democratic Party on the two coasts who look down on them. We've got to find a way to show folks in middle America with social and conservative more values that we respect them, and we want to have a good debate about the future of the country with them.

O'BRIEN: Look at the numbers, the poll numbers of the number of women increases for President Bush. The number of minorities, Latinos, 7 percentage points increase for President Bush. Why is getting his message to women and Latinos where the Democrats are not?

BEGALA: Well, a couple of things. I mean, we're going to have to plow through the numbers and figure out. Perhaps this theory of security moms did play out. I tend to doubt that. I think it's more the social and cultural traditional values. You know, a lot of moms with kids, Soledad, feel like they are trying to raise their kids in a larger culture that is really detrimental to their family values.

Now, the truth is the president hasn't done much to change that. He's been president for four years. But at election time, he does a good job of revving up these divisions, attacking gay rights and suggesting maybe that he'll limit abortion rights. Let's put him to the test now. He's got the House. He's got the Senate. He's obviously got the White House. Let's see him speak out if he thinks abortion really is murder. Fine. Let's put cops in hospitals, Mr. President. Let's ban abortion.

You know, you think that gay rights is wrong. Fine. Let's outlaw being gay the way Texas did for many years and start locking up the homosexuals.

You know, the truth is, he won't do any of that, because this is all just a cynical ploy to manipulate good people with strong values and to use their votes and to get them at the election. Then he's going to go back to his big business agenda. You watch.

O'BRIEN: Well, see. Paul Begala sounding a little angry today. Thanks, Paul. Nice to see you.

BEGALA: Don't blame me.

O'BRIEN: It sounds like your guy lost yesterday. Thanks, Paul. Nice to talk to you.

We should mention, of course, that you can catch "CROSSFIRE" today and every day, James Carville, Robert Novak, Tucker Carlson join Paul every day at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time -- Bill.

HEMMER: Soledad, "TIME" magazine is out with a special election issue today. It takes a behind-the-scenes look at the key moments in this campaign.

Stephen Koepp is the deputy managing editor for "TIME" magazine, my guest now here in New York.

Good morning to you.

STEPHEN KOEPP, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Good morning.

HEMMER: Four areas I want to get to that you talk about in this article.

KOEPP: OK.

HEMMER: The first one is Iraq and how the Bush team laid a trap on the issue of Iraq for John Kerry. How did they do this? And how did John Kerry walk into it?

KOEPP: Well, Kerry was doing pretty well. It was summertime. And they decided we've got to pin this guy down on Iraq. He's all over the place. We need to remind the voters of that. So what they did was dangle out a statement. Bush put in a speech a comment that he -- that a leader needs to be definitive on this. Where does Senator Kerry really stand? If knowing what he knows today, would he still have authorized the use of force in Iraq?

And they dangled that out there. And for a few days Kerry didn't take the bait. And then one day when he was standing on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, it seemed to be kind of symbolic of the danger of this issue, a reporter asked him, just what Bush had posed to him. And he said, yes, he said he would authorize the use of force in Iraq.

And a day or two later, President Bush said, well, thank you, Senator Kerry, for clearing that up.

HEMMER: Issue No. 2 you talked about the Osama bin Laden videotape that came out Friday, the weekend before the election. Why was that significant when one would assume that the votes were perhaps already locked in before that tape emerged?

KOEPP: Well, because it was a reminder to people that the danger was still out there. And the Bush team wanted to see if they could -- if Kerry would go too far with that and seemed to engage in bin Laden or use it as -- seemed to be using it as a campaign device.

And so Bush's comment was very clear. It was, Americans will not be influenced or intimidated by someone who is an enemy of our country, and Senator Kerry knows that, too. And they let that hang out there, thinking, well, Kerry may try to go a little too far on this.

And sure enough, on a television broadcast in Wisconsin, he did. He said -- he started going into Bush should have caught him in Tora Bora. And that gave Bush the opportunity to come back and say it's the worst kind of Monday morning quarterbacking.

HEMMER: Armchair quarterback was the comment we heard again.

KOEPP: Yes.

HEMMER: Point No. 3 here, take us before the first debate when John Kerry apparently, according to this report, was coached, when he says Saddam, you say Osama.

KOEPP: Right, right. It was a way of pivoting, kind of a judo. When you hear that, you when hear Saddam, it reminds people of Osama. In that case, it was fair game to be doing that. They rehearsed Kerry in a shed in Wisconsin for several days. It was kind of a debate camp. And they taught him to use the lights to his advantage. When he saw the green light go on that said he had 30 seconds left, it was a signal for him to pivot and stop attacking Bush and start talking positively about his own actions.

HEMMER: And the other point on that is that John McCain was there at the third debate after being requested by President Bush to make sure that he was on the side of the White House and not seen as an arbiter in the middle between John Kerry and George Bush.

Quickly, the fourth point. Bill Clinton's involvement and the conversation he had on that Saturday night with John Kerry.

KOEPP: Right.

HEMMER: Many say this helped John Kerry. How did it hurt him, possibly?

KOEPP: Well, I mean, it hurt possibly him in the sense of being too close a contrast with Clinton. What Clinton's advice was good advice, which was, you know, if -- to Kerry, which was, if you are the issue in the campaign, you lose. If "he," meaning Bush is the issue in the campaign, you win. Stay in his face. And that helped Kerry, I think, embolden him to be more aggressive.

And on the other hand, when word leaked out that he had been talking to Clinton, that made him very upset.

HEMMER: Furious, right? KOEPP: Because he couldn't be seeming to look to Clinton for advice. But he was smart enough to know that, look, Clinton and his team know how to dig their way out of a crater. So, you know, this has got to be pretty solid advice.

HEMMER: Interesting article to be thought about for some time. Thank you. Stephen Koepp from "TIME" magazine, nice to see you.

KOEPP: Thanks, Bill.

HEMMER: All right -- Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Let's turn and take a look at the weather this morning.

(WEATHER REPORT)

O'BRIEN: Here's the answer. He won the most money in quiz show history. The question? Who is Ken Jennings? The software engineer from Utah won more than $45,000 on "Jeopardy" yesterday, bringing his total to $2,197,000. He beat the previous record holder of the 2001 winner of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" by 17,000 bucks. Jennings' winning streak is 66 games, but reports say he has been defeated on a show that's yet to air. Wow!

HEMMER: He's doing all right, isn't he? Wow!

O'BRIEN: Just keep doing that. Two million dollars!

HEMMER: Yes, we've got to get him on the show and find out what the key is there.

In a moment here, Hollywood take as big step to make sure it is no haven for pirates. Andy explains that, "Minding Your Business."

O'BRIEN: Plus, U.S. troops gear up for a possible assault on Fallujah in Iraq. Ken Pollack will tell us why another country, though, in that region the next big issue for President Bush and U.S. troops. That's ahead as we continue right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: His last book made the case for invading Iraq. Well, now author Ken Pollack looks at the potential threat to the United States from Iran. He traces their tumultuous relationship from the fall of the Shah to the current prospect of nuclear-armed Tehran. The release of "The Persian Puzzle" coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Iran hostage crisis. Ken Pollack is a CNN analyst as well.

It's nice to see you. Let's talk a little bit about this book. Considering you call it "The Persian Puzzle," you put it on the top of the list of the things that the president has to deal with in his next four years. When you consider all of the other things that are on that list as well, why, in your mind, is Iran at the very top?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, I think that the reason is pretty simple. First, Iran has been a very disruptive force in an extremely important part of the world, the Persian Gulf. Obviously now, given our problems in Iraq, what happens with Iran is even more important. And we've got very good evidence, the Iranians have made it very clear, they have said it publicly, they are developing nuclear weapons. And no one knows what's going to happen once they've got them.

O'BRIEN: The Pentagon has really never wavered on its position that they have no plans for any military action in Iran. So why do you think that that could happen?

POLLACK: Well, I honestly don't think that it's likely that we would mount a full-scale invasion of Iran. Iran is -- it's nothing but trouble. It has three times the population of Iraq, four times the land mass and five times the problems of Iraq. So I don't see an invasion taking place.

But there are a lot of people who are very concerned about Iran's possible possession of nuclear weapons, and they've been talking about the possibility of disarming airstrikes or other military action to try to prevent the Iranians from acquiring the weapons in accord with the Bush doctrine. Those are, I think, very problematic options.

O'BRIEN: Does the U.S. have the military strength and force, considering where else the troops are spread out to actually pull that off?

POLLACK: We certainly don't have the standing forces right now to mount an invasion. If we were going to invade, we'd have to go through a massive mobilization of the Guard and the Reserves or go to a draft. The airstrikes, that's something well within our capabilities.

But the question is not can we do it? The question is whether we should, because Iran has a very large nuclear program. They've learned the lessons from Iraq. They've spun it out, dispersed it, hidden it. And beyond that, the Iranians can fight back. They are the No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism in the world. They have a tremendous network of intelligence agents in Iraq. If we were to go after the Iranians, we might be inviting a world of trouble back from them.

O'BRIEN: So then should the United States go after the Iranians? What lessons has the U.S. learned from Iraq as opposed to just what Iran has learned?

POLLACK: I'd certainly put it this way. I think that it is important for the United States to try to convince the Iranians not to acquire nuclear weapons, maybe even prevent them if we can. I'm not convinced that military force is the right way to do so, certainly not right now.

I think there are other ways that we need to explore. It's why I think this needs to be at the top of President Bush's agenda, because right now there are probably diplomatic options that might have a chance of turning the nuclear programs off. But they're not going to last for long, and when that happens we may only have a military option.

O'BRIEN: The book looks back at the last 25 years. I mean, it's very based in history. With so much changing in the world, why is that relevant? I mean, 25 years ago and today are in a lot of way too very different stories.

POLLACK: No question about it, that is certainly true. But for the Iranians in particular and for us with the Iranians, our history -- we're basically prisoners of our history. The Iranians have tremendous emotions about the United States based on that emotion.

Fifty years ago they believed -- and actually the CIA has admitted this -- we overthrew their popular prime minister, Mohammed Mossodegh. Twenty-five years ago, they took our embassy. A lot of Americans remain very bitter about that. And these two emotional events have really limited our ability to deal with the Iranians and their ability to deal with us.

O'BRIEN: An interesting case. All right, Ken Pollack, nice to see you. Thanks, once again. We appreciate it.

POLLACK: Thank you, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: As I mentioned, the book is called "The Persian Puzzle." Thanks.

POLLACK: Thanks.

O'BRIEN: Bill.

HEMMER: Soledad, a break here. In a moment, Hollywood is no longer fighting the pirates with swords. The new strategy is a lawsuit. Andy is "Minding Your Business," back with that story right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Welcome back. Big news out of Napa Valley to talk about today. And also, add to the list of people going after Internet file- sharers. Andy is "Minding Your Business," explaining all of this.

And good morning. Where do you want to start, huh?

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning. Let's start with movies, a couple California stories actually.

The Motion Picture Association of America is taking a legal tactic from the recording industry, from the record industry that is, and going after individuals who pirate movies off the Web. This is interesting, because the MPAA has a new head, Dan Glickman. You remember Jack Valenti ran that organization for decades.

And now he's going to decide to be kind of aggressive here. It's a controversial strategy, because when the record companies did this, a lot of people cried foul. Some of the people they accused were children, old ladies. You remember that? And what one movie producer is saying this morning is what the movie business really needs is a model like Apple's iTune's store, where people can download movies and buy them. You'll remember and "The Future Is Now" series, we talked about some of those services, but none of them allow you to download to DVDs, and none of the movies were news. So the movie industry is going to have to step up to the plate here.

HEMMER: That's big in this country. It's also very big in China, too.

SERWER: Yes. Well, absolutely.

Let's talk about the wine biz a little bit. Napa Valley, a huge deal this morning, a landmark deal in the wine business. Constellation, the largest wine company in the United States, buying the storied Robert Mondavi Company for about $1.36 billion, Constellation Brands -- isn't that beautiful? That's beautiful out there.

O'BRIEN: I've been there. It's even more beautiful in person.

SERWER: We should do the show out there.

O'BRIEN: You know? Good thought.

SERWER: The deal includes Constellation Brands like Almandine (ph) and Simi (ph). And they also import a couple beer companies as well. And at first Mondavi resisted the deal, but I think there was some wining and dining that went on.

HEMMER: Yes. And unscrew the cork and let it go.

SERWER: And it just happened.

HEMMER: Thank you, Andy.

SERWER: You're welcome.

O'BRIEN: Four more years is really part of the "Question of the Day" this morning.

Good morning, Toure. You're in for Jack, who is taking a little vaca (ph).

TOURE, CNN POPULAR CULTURE CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Yes, the president says he's not concerned about his legacy, but his second term will define it. How is he going to move forward on Iraq, Iran, North Korea, the war on terror? What's going to happen to the Supreme Court, gay rights, stem cell research? And what will the unforeseen challenges be?

Here's the "Question of the Day": What do you expect President Bush to accomplish in the next four years? The e-mailers are out in force this morning.

O'BRIEN: Good.

TOURE: Kathy from Midland, Texas, says: "I believe President Bush will work to unite the country, get rid of bin Laden and help us all feel better, protecting us against terrorism. He will not get embroiled in some shameless scandal. Bush actually has morals."

And apparently that's why he won.

Pamela from Michigan, says: I expect Bush to bring the nation together, protect us from the evildoers, fix Iraq, quick spending more money than we have, save social security and Medicare, stop outsourcing jobs, finally secure our borders. And if you believe that, I've got some good stocks to sell you."

Curtis says: "Hopefully, he'll keep us out of another conflict while removing us from the current one. That should be enough to keep him busy. WMD can be elusive. Hopefully, four years will provide ample time to secure all of the weapons from the world's axis of evil."

And Ruth from Kissimmee, Florida, a little off the subject, but an interesting snapshot of the electorate. Did bin Laden have an impact? Ruth says, yes. "I'm an Independent who was voting for Kerry until Osama quoted Michael Moore with regard to the president's reaction in the classroom. To me," Ruth says, "my vote was a vote against Michael Moore and bin Laden when I cast it for Bush."

SERWER: Wow!

HEMMER: A couple of references in that last message...

TOURE: Yes.

HEMMER: ... about the goat and the schoolchildren in Florida.

TOURE: Yes. Yes.

HEMMER: Thanks, Toure. Big response you say?

TOURE: Yes, lots of people.

HEMMER: All right, keep it going. Talk to you next hour.

TOURE: All right.

HEMMER: In a moment here, President Bush now with a second term, thanks in no small part to those who say morals and values was the critical issue and issues in this race. We'll talk to the Reverend Jerry Falwell and a Roman Catholic nun about that as we continue at the top of the hour here on this AMERICAN MORNING. Back in a moment.

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Aired November 4, 2004 - 07:28   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. Just about half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
As happy as Republicans are right now, Democrats are just as unhappy, losing ground across the spectrum of American politics. This morning we talk with "CROSSFIRE'S" Paul Begala about what the party has to do now to start winning more elections down the road.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Also in a moment, Soledad, we're looking today at some of the challenges the Bush administration are now facing regarding Iran. Ken Pollack has just written a book about that topic and that country, with us talking about military force and other possible scenarios regarding Tehran. So we'll talk to Ken this morning.

O'BRIEN: Let's get a look at the headlines this morning. Daryn Kagan is at the CNN center for us.

Hey, Daryn, good morning.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad.

"Now in the News."

There are conflicting reports about Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's condition. Senior Palestinian officials tell CNN that Arafat has been in a coma since last night. But chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat says that those reports are rumors and that Arafat is in stable but difficult condition. No confirmation from doctors on either report. We will be going live to Paris later in the program.

World leaders are reacting to President Bush's re-election win. British Prime Minister Tony Blair congratulating the president and calling for a new alliance between the U.S. and European allies. Prime Minister Blair pledged continued support for the U.S.-led war on terror and stressed renewed commitment to the Middle East peace process.

There's a new report claiming crucial evidence for a war crimes trial of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein may have been lost. The watchdog group, Human Rights Watch, says that U.S.-led troops were unable to stop people from stealing thousands of official documents belonging to the Saddam regime. The group also claims that troops failed to safeguard mass gravesites, which could be used as evidence. The Pentagon says it has not yet reviewed that report. And how about some sports news for you? A former New York Yankees coach is moving across town. Willie Randolph joining the ranks of Major League managers today. The Mets will make it official at a news conference this afternoon. Randolph served as a Yankees coach for 11 years. Also played with them as a second baseman, but spent his final season playing for the Mets back in 1992. He has his work cut out for him. Of course, the Mets, two last-place finishes, followed last year by a fourth in the NLE.

HEMMER: The stepchild in this town.

KAGAN: Well, there's lots of room for improvement. How about that for a positive start?

O'BRIEN: That's a way to put it.

KAGAN: Yes.

HEMMER: Thank you, Daryn.

I want to get to Paris straight away. There are various reports, and mixed reports, too, about the condition of Yasser Arafat's health. In Paris, Fionnuala Sweeney is watching that for us.

And, Fionnuala, good afternoon there. What are you hearing?

FIONNUALA SWEENEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon.

You say, Bill, mixed and conflicting reports and varying reports. And indeed I think that is the order of the day here.

I can tell you what we do know. There was a sudden deterioration in the 75-year-old Palestinian leader's health yesterday evening. And he is in intensive care.

We have been awaiting for at least a couple of hours now a news conference, which should take place behind us. And that was canceled, we were told, temporarily. But now we're hearing from the hospital that there are no plans for any kind of news conference giving an update on Yasser Arafat's health.

So what we are depending on and relying on are our contacts with sources here in the delegation with Yasser Arafat in Paris and also our sources in Ramallah. And depending to whom you speak, he is either in and out of consciousness. He certainly is in intensive care. There are those in Ramallah who say that he is merely being sedated, while tests continue to find out what exactly is wrong with him.

But until the doctors actually come out and make a definitive diagnosis about his condition, it would be rather rash to speculate as to what has happened. But what we do know from people I have been speaking to here in the delegation is that his condition is critical -- Bill.

HEMMER: All right, Fionnuala. Fionnuala Sweeney updating us there from Paris.

Now -- Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Well, after a bitter campaign, one of the biggest challenges for President Bush will be to unite a divided nation. Accompanied by the first lady, his daughters and the vice president yesterday during his victory speech, Mr. Bush once again appealed to Democrats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support, and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: In a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, 57 percent of those polled said they think the president will be a uniter in his second term, 39 percent feel he's going to be a divider. A majority of those polled said that President Bush should emphasize partisan programs, while 30 percent want him to advance the Republican agenda.

What about the Democratic agenda? A record number of Americans voted for Democrat John Kerry, a sign of great desire for change in America. But after losing the White House and seats in both chambers on Capitol Hill, it seems that the Democrats have some re-evaluating to do.

Paul Begala is a former advisor to President Clinton and a co- host of CNN's "CROSSFIRE." He joins us from Fort Lauderdale Florida, this morning.

Hey, Paul, good morning to you.

PAUL BEGALA, CNN CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Hey, Soledad. How are you?

O'BRIEN: I'm well, thank you. Lots of myths, I think, exploded during this election. There was a myth that that if there was a big turnout, it would go to the Democrats. There was a myth that if it was a nasty campaign that the negativity would turn everybody off. Both of those things not true. What's your read on that?

BEGALA: Well, you're right on both counts. There was a high turnout. I and a lot of other people thought a high turnout had to favor the challenger. People don't stand in line for three hours to vote for more of the same. Well, it turns out they do, or an awful lot of them do. And that is to the great credit of the Bush campaign, and Karl Rove is the chief architect of that campaign.

But the negativity was a particular favorite of mine. Of course, I host "CROSSFIRE." There is this great theory out there that nasty, mean, bitter campaigns depress voter turnout. Well, now we know the opposite that the meaner the campaign, the greater the turnout. You know, I remember, I worked for Bill Clinton. When he ran against Bob Dole, it was the most gentlemanly presidential election of my lifetime. Two guys who respected each other, who personally liked each other and who remain friends today. And it was the lowest turnout in the last 50 years. This was the meanest campaign and the highest turnout. So I say more negative campaigning.

O'BRIEN: Not everybody is doing that kind of math today, Paul, I'll tell you that. But Democrats, what do they take away from this, and the fact that a 3.5 million voter margin going to President Bush? How are Democrats assessing, is what I'm trying to say, the day after the day after?

BEGALA: A couple ways. First, I think that they believe they have the right economic message, perhaps didn't deliver it as forcefully. I think a lot of Democrats believe that they should have been clearer about the war. When John Kerry spoke powerfully about the war, he moved up. He was 11 points behind. He started attacking President Bush on the war and then he tied him.

But the piece that the Democrats, I think, are reassessing most carefully is the social cultural elitism that my party suffers from. All of those folks in those red states, a whole lot of them feel like there are elitist snobs in the Democratic Party on the two coasts who look down on them. We've got to find a way to show folks in middle America with social and conservative more values that we respect them, and we want to have a good debate about the future of the country with them.

O'BRIEN: Look at the numbers, the poll numbers of the number of women increases for President Bush. The number of minorities, Latinos, 7 percentage points increase for President Bush. Why is getting his message to women and Latinos where the Democrats are not?

BEGALA: Well, a couple of things. I mean, we're going to have to plow through the numbers and figure out. Perhaps this theory of security moms did play out. I tend to doubt that. I think it's more the social and cultural traditional values. You know, a lot of moms with kids, Soledad, feel like they are trying to raise their kids in a larger culture that is really detrimental to their family values.

Now, the truth is the president hasn't done much to change that. He's been president for four years. But at election time, he does a good job of revving up these divisions, attacking gay rights and suggesting maybe that he'll limit abortion rights. Let's put him to the test now. He's got the House. He's got the Senate. He's obviously got the White House. Let's see him speak out if he thinks abortion really is murder. Fine. Let's put cops in hospitals, Mr. President. Let's ban abortion.

You know, you think that gay rights is wrong. Fine. Let's outlaw being gay the way Texas did for many years and start locking up the homosexuals.

You know, the truth is, he won't do any of that, because this is all just a cynical ploy to manipulate good people with strong values and to use their votes and to get them at the election. Then he's going to go back to his big business agenda. You watch.

O'BRIEN: Well, see. Paul Begala sounding a little angry today. Thanks, Paul. Nice to see you.

BEGALA: Don't blame me.

O'BRIEN: It sounds like your guy lost yesterday. Thanks, Paul. Nice to talk to you.

We should mention, of course, that you can catch "CROSSFIRE" today and every day, James Carville, Robert Novak, Tucker Carlson join Paul every day at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time -- Bill.

HEMMER: Soledad, "TIME" magazine is out with a special election issue today. It takes a behind-the-scenes look at the key moments in this campaign.

Stephen Koepp is the deputy managing editor for "TIME" magazine, my guest now here in New York.

Good morning to you.

STEPHEN KOEPP, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Good morning.

HEMMER: Four areas I want to get to that you talk about in this article.

KOEPP: OK.

HEMMER: The first one is Iraq and how the Bush team laid a trap on the issue of Iraq for John Kerry. How did they do this? And how did John Kerry walk into it?

KOEPP: Well, Kerry was doing pretty well. It was summertime. And they decided we've got to pin this guy down on Iraq. He's all over the place. We need to remind the voters of that. So what they did was dangle out a statement. Bush put in a speech a comment that he -- that a leader needs to be definitive on this. Where does Senator Kerry really stand? If knowing what he knows today, would he still have authorized the use of force in Iraq?

And they dangled that out there. And for a few days Kerry didn't take the bait. And then one day when he was standing on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, it seemed to be kind of symbolic of the danger of this issue, a reporter asked him, just what Bush had posed to him. And he said, yes, he said he would authorize the use of force in Iraq.

And a day or two later, President Bush said, well, thank you, Senator Kerry, for clearing that up.

HEMMER: Issue No. 2 you talked about the Osama bin Laden videotape that came out Friday, the weekend before the election. Why was that significant when one would assume that the votes were perhaps already locked in before that tape emerged?

KOEPP: Well, because it was a reminder to people that the danger was still out there. And the Bush team wanted to see if they could -- if Kerry would go too far with that and seemed to engage in bin Laden or use it as -- seemed to be using it as a campaign device.

And so Bush's comment was very clear. It was, Americans will not be influenced or intimidated by someone who is an enemy of our country, and Senator Kerry knows that, too. And they let that hang out there, thinking, well, Kerry may try to go a little too far on this.

And sure enough, on a television broadcast in Wisconsin, he did. He said -- he started going into Bush should have caught him in Tora Bora. And that gave Bush the opportunity to come back and say it's the worst kind of Monday morning quarterbacking.

HEMMER: Armchair quarterback was the comment we heard again.

KOEPP: Yes.

HEMMER: Point No. 3 here, take us before the first debate when John Kerry apparently, according to this report, was coached, when he says Saddam, you say Osama.

KOEPP: Right, right. It was a way of pivoting, kind of a judo. When you hear that, you when hear Saddam, it reminds people of Osama. In that case, it was fair game to be doing that. They rehearsed Kerry in a shed in Wisconsin for several days. It was kind of a debate camp. And they taught him to use the lights to his advantage. When he saw the green light go on that said he had 30 seconds left, it was a signal for him to pivot and stop attacking Bush and start talking positively about his own actions.

HEMMER: And the other point on that is that John McCain was there at the third debate after being requested by President Bush to make sure that he was on the side of the White House and not seen as an arbiter in the middle between John Kerry and George Bush.

Quickly, the fourth point. Bill Clinton's involvement and the conversation he had on that Saturday night with John Kerry.

KOEPP: Right.

HEMMER: Many say this helped John Kerry. How did it hurt him, possibly?

KOEPP: Well, I mean, it hurt possibly him in the sense of being too close a contrast with Clinton. What Clinton's advice was good advice, which was, you know, if -- to Kerry, which was, if you are the issue in the campaign, you lose. If "he," meaning Bush is the issue in the campaign, you win. Stay in his face. And that helped Kerry, I think, embolden him to be more aggressive.

And on the other hand, when word leaked out that he had been talking to Clinton, that made him very upset.

HEMMER: Furious, right? KOEPP: Because he couldn't be seeming to look to Clinton for advice. But he was smart enough to know that, look, Clinton and his team know how to dig their way out of a crater. So, you know, this has got to be pretty solid advice.

HEMMER: Interesting article to be thought about for some time. Thank you. Stephen Koepp from "TIME" magazine, nice to see you.

KOEPP: Thanks, Bill.

HEMMER: All right -- Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Let's turn and take a look at the weather this morning.

(WEATHER REPORT)

O'BRIEN: Here's the answer. He won the most money in quiz show history. The question? Who is Ken Jennings? The software engineer from Utah won more than $45,000 on "Jeopardy" yesterday, bringing his total to $2,197,000. He beat the previous record holder of the 2001 winner of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" by 17,000 bucks. Jennings' winning streak is 66 games, but reports say he has been defeated on a show that's yet to air. Wow!

HEMMER: He's doing all right, isn't he? Wow!

O'BRIEN: Just keep doing that. Two million dollars!

HEMMER: Yes, we've got to get him on the show and find out what the key is there.

In a moment here, Hollywood take as big step to make sure it is no haven for pirates. Andy explains that, "Minding Your Business."

O'BRIEN: Plus, U.S. troops gear up for a possible assault on Fallujah in Iraq. Ken Pollack will tell us why another country, though, in that region the next big issue for President Bush and U.S. troops. That's ahead as we continue right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: His last book made the case for invading Iraq. Well, now author Ken Pollack looks at the potential threat to the United States from Iran. He traces their tumultuous relationship from the fall of the Shah to the current prospect of nuclear-armed Tehran. The release of "The Persian Puzzle" coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Iran hostage crisis. Ken Pollack is a CNN analyst as well.

It's nice to see you. Let's talk a little bit about this book. Considering you call it "The Persian Puzzle," you put it on the top of the list of the things that the president has to deal with in his next four years. When you consider all of the other things that are on that list as well, why, in your mind, is Iran at the very top?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, I think that the reason is pretty simple. First, Iran has been a very disruptive force in an extremely important part of the world, the Persian Gulf. Obviously now, given our problems in Iraq, what happens with Iran is even more important. And we've got very good evidence, the Iranians have made it very clear, they have said it publicly, they are developing nuclear weapons. And no one knows what's going to happen once they've got them.

O'BRIEN: The Pentagon has really never wavered on its position that they have no plans for any military action in Iran. So why do you think that that could happen?

POLLACK: Well, I honestly don't think that it's likely that we would mount a full-scale invasion of Iran. Iran is -- it's nothing but trouble. It has three times the population of Iraq, four times the land mass and five times the problems of Iraq. So I don't see an invasion taking place.

But there are a lot of people who are very concerned about Iran's possible possession of nuclear weapons, and they've been talking about the possibility of disarming airstrikes or other military action to try to prevent the Iranians from acquiring the weapons in accord with the Bush doctrine. Those are, I think, very problematic options.

O'BRIEN: Does the U.S. have the military strength and force, considering where else the troops are spread out to actually pull that off?

POLLACK: We certainly don't have the standing forces right now to mount an invasion. If we were going to invade, we'd have to go through a massive mobilization of the Guard and the Reserves or go to a draft. The airstrikes, that's something well within our capabilities.

But the question is not can we do it? The question is whether we should, because Iran has a very large nuclear program. They've learned the lessons from Iraq. They've spun it out, dispersed it, hidden it. And beyond that, the Iranians can fight back. They are the No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism in the world. They have a tremendous network of intelligence agents in Iraq. If we were to go after the Iranians, we might be inviting a world of trouble back from them.

O'BRIEN: So then should the United States go after the Iranians? What lessons has the U.S. learned from Iraq as opposed to just what Iran has learned?

POLLACK: I'd certainly put it this way. I think that it is important for the United States to try to convince the Iranians not to acquire nuclear weapons, maybe even prevent them if we can. I'm not convinced that military force is the right way to do so, certainly not right now.

I think there are other ways that we need to explore. It's why I think this needs to be at the top of President Bush's agenda, because right now there are probably diplomatic options that might have a chance of turning the nuclear programs off. But they're not going to last for long, and when that happens we may only have a military option.

O'BRIEN: The book looks back at the last 25 years. I mean, it's very based in history. With so much changing in the world, why is that relevant? I mean, 25 years ago and today are in a lot of way too very different stories.

POLLACK: No question about it, that is certainly true. But for the Iranians in particular and for us with the Iranians, our history -- we're basically prisoners of our history. The Iranians have tremendous emotions about the United States based on that emotion.

Fifty years ago they believed -- and actually the CIA has admitted this -- we overthrew their popular prime minister, Mohammed Mossodegh. Twenty-five years ago, they took our embassy. A lot of Americans remain very bitter about that. And these two emotional events have really limited our ability to deal with the Iranians and their ability to deal with us.

O'BRIEN: An interesting case. All right, Ken Pollack, nice to see you. Thanks, once again. We appreciate it.

POLLACK: Thank you, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: As I mentioned, the book is called "The Persian Puzzle." Thanks.

POLLACK: Thanks.

O'BRIEN: Bill.

HEMMER: Soledad, a break here. In a moment, Hollywood is no longer fighting the pirates with swords. The new strategy is a lawsuit. Andy is "Minding Your Business," back with that story right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Welcome back. Big news out of Napa Valley to talk about today. And also, add to the list of people going after Internet file- sharers. Andy is "Minding Your Business," explaining all of this.

And good morning. Where do you want to start, huh?

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning. Let's start with movies, a couple California stories actually.

The Motion Picture Association of America is taking a legal tactic from the recording industry, from the record industry that is, and going after individuals who pirate movies off the Web. This is interesting, because the MPAA has a new head, Dan Glickman. You remember Jack Valenti ran that organization for decades.

And now he's going to decide to be kind of aggressive here. It's a controversial strategy, because when the record companies did this, a lot of people cried foul. Some of the people they accused were children, old ladies. You remember that? And what one movie producer is saying this morning is what the movie business really needs is a model like Apple's iTune's store, where people can download movies and buy them. You'll remember and "The Future Is Now" series, we talked about some of those services, but none of them allow you to download to DVDs, and none of the movies were news. So the movie industry is going to have to step up to the plate here.

HEMMER: That's big in this country. It's also very big in China, too.

SERWER: Yes. Well, absolutely.

Let's talk about the wine biz a little bit. Napa Valley, a huge deal this morning, a landmark deal in the wine business. Constellation, the largest wine company in the United States, buying the storied Robert Mondavi Company for about $1.36 billion, Constellation Brands -- isn't that beautiful? That's beautiful out there.

O'BRIEN: I've been there. It's even more beautiful in person.

SERWER: We should do the show out there.

O'BRIEN: You know? Good thought.

SERWER: The deal includes Constellation Brands like Almandine (ph) and Simi (ph). And they also import a couple beer companies as well. And at first Mondavi resisted the deal, but I think there was some wining and dining that went on.

HEMMER: Yes. And unscrew the cork and let it go.

SERWER: And it just happened.

HEMMER: Thank you, Andy.

SERWER: You're welcome.

O'BRIEN: Four more years is really part of the "Question of the Day" this morning.

Good morning, Toure. You're in for Jack, who is taking a little vaca (ph).

TOURE, CNN POPULAR CULTURE CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Yes, the president says he's not concerned about his legacy, but his second term will define it. How is he going to move forward on Iraq, Iran, North Korea, the war on terror? What's going to happen to the Supreme Court, gay rights, stem cell research? And what will the unforeseen challenges be?

Here's the "Question of the Day": What do you expect President Bush to accomplish in the next four years? The e-mailers are out in force this morning.

O'BRIEN: Good.

TOURE: Kathy from Midland, Texas, says: "I believe President Bush will work to unite the country, get rid of bin Laden and help us all feel better, protecting us against terrorism. He will not get embroiled in some shameless scandal. Bush actually has morals."

And apparently that's why he won.

Pamela from Michigan, says: I expect Bush to bring the nation together, protect us from the evildoers, fix Iraq, quick spending more money than we have, save social security and Medicare, stop outsourcing jobs, finally secure our borders. And if you believe that, I've got some good stocks to sell you."

Curtis says: "Hopefully, he'll keep us out of another conflict while removing us from the current one. That should be enough to keep him busy. WMD can be elusive. Hopefully, four years will provide ample time to secure all of the weapons from the world's axis of evil."

And Ruth from Kissimmee, Florida, a little off the subject, but an interesting snapshot of the electorate. Did bin Laden have an impact? Ruth says, yes. "I'm an Independent who was voting for Kerry until Osama quoted Michael Moore with regard to the president's reaction in the classroom. To me," Ruth says, "my vote was a vote against Michael Moore and bin Laden when I cast it for Bush."

SERWER: Wow!

HEMMER: A couple of references in that last message...

TOURE: Yes.

HEMMER: ... about the goat and the schoolchildren in Florida.

TOURE: Yes. Yes.

HEMMER: Thanks, Toure. Big response you say?

TOURE: Yes, lots of people.

HEMMER: All right, keep it going. Talk to you next hour.

TOURE: All right.

HEMMER: In a moment here, President Bush now with a second term, thanks in no small part to those who say morals and values was the critical issue and issues in this race. We'll talk to the Reverend Jerry Falwell and a Roman Catholic nun about that as we continue at the top of the hour here on this AMERICAN MORNING. Back in a moment.

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