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CNN Live Sunday

Arabic Language Station Almanar Draws Harsh Criticism; A Look At Who's Staying, Who's Leaving In Bush Administration; Iraqi Forces Take Hospital In Falluja

Aired November 07, 2004 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: In Iraq, an all-out offensive on Falljua is thought to be imminent. A reporter says Iraqi forces with U.S. and coalition troops have taken over the city's main hospital without firing a shot. Meanwhile, Iraq's interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi declares a state of emergency for most of the country. Today alone, at least 32 people died in violence.
And there's confusion tonight about Yasser Arafat's condition. A Palestinian Authority official tells CNN, Arafat is in a coma. And that contradicts an earlier report that he was not in a coma.

Now, the current and former Palestinian prime ministers plan to visit him in a Paris hospital tomorrow.

And right here in the United States, gasoline prices have fallen about 3 cents a gallon in the past two weeks. The average price for a gallon of self-serve regular is $2.01.

I'm Carol Lin. And welcome to CNN LIVE SUNDAY.

On the brink of battle, U.S. troops could be just hours away from major fighting in Falluja.

Four more years, who will stay, who will go in the next Bush administration.

And will the president's political architect take an even more powerful job in the administration?

And closing in on al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden's alive and well, but what will happen now that the president has been reelected? I'm going to talk to the foremost terror experts about what is going to happen next.

But up first this hour, gearing up to move in. Falluja, Iraq, bracing tonight for an inspected, or at least an expected, rather, all-out U.S. and Iraqi assault. Today, Marines were told it will be a historic operation.

There are new developments this hour. And CNN's Jamie McIntyre is watching them from the Pentagon. Jamie, it certainly does feel like hurry up and wait with so much at stake.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, there has been some activity, as you said. Within the last couple of hours, Iraqi special forces have taken the main hospital on the western edge of Falluja. Now Pentagon officials say that taking the hospital was one of the initial objectives. In order to ensure its use as a hospital facility, without the intimidation of insurgents and also to end its use of a source of anti-U.S. propaganda.

But what is stil unclear, is when the main push into the city will begin.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): U.S. troops encircling Falluja have been anxious to take the offensive after months of being on the receiving end of suicide attacks and roadside bombs.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were riding down the road and we're looking through the planks. And we just passed by an ID and it blew up in our face. I can't even hear anything.

MCINTYRE: What goes through your mind when this happens?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just anger, anger. That's all I can think of. I just really want to find the person who did it. That's all I want.

MCINTYRE: While confident of victory, the U.S. military is under no illusions that the battle of Falluja will be the insurgents last stand. The stated military objective is limited to driving the insurgents out and returning control to local leaders, who will work with the central government in Baghdad so the city can take part in elections set for January.

It is not expected the assault will break the back of the insurgency or even capture or kill terrorist leader Abu Musab al- Zarqawi, who may well have slipped out of Falluja, along with many of his top lieutenants, given how well telegraphed the offensive has been.

GEN. GEORGE JOULWAN, FRM. NATO SUPREME COMMANDER: My guess is, we have lost strategic surprise in this fight. Hopefully, we can get tactical surprise, choosing the time and place of when we'll go in.

MCINTYRE: With U.S. commanders giving pep talks to troops in the field, and Iraq's prime minister putting much of the country, all signs suggest the assault is imminent.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: The big question mark remains the performance of Iraqi troops, which by all accounts are better trained, but still not up to U.S. military standards. However, Carol, so far, so good. It was Iraqi commandos, special forces that took that hospital in Falluja without firing a shot just hours ago -- Carol.

LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Jamie McIntyre tracking these events from the Pentagon. The goal of the Falluja assault to uproot insurgents, but most of Iraq is under a state of emergency after a day of considerable bloodshed. CNN senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is in Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just minutes after the stated emergency was declared, this ambulance raced through Baghdad streets on its way to the aftermath of a car bombing near the home of Iraq's interim finance minister.

Only moments before, a government spokesman blamed "continuous crimes by terrorists" as the reason behind the state of emergency.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We have decided to declare this state of emergency throughout Iraq, except for Kurdistan in the north. And for 60 days.

ROBERTSON: At the same time, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi met with his security chiefs. His own powers will be strengthened as a result of the declaration, granting him extraordinary authorities that he can delegate to civilian and military officials.

He is also empowered to commence speedy military and security decisions, seek the assistance of a multinational force, impose curfews, control communications with strict transportation, measures which in some cases, the transitional government has also implemented on occasion over the past few months.

Allawi, however, urged insurgents to heed his new authority.

AYAD ALLAWI, INTERIM IRAQI PRIME MINISTER: This will send a very powerful message that we are serious. We want direction to (UNINTELLIGIBLE). We want to secure the countries where elections could be done in a peaceful way and the Iraq people to pass different elections freely without intimidation.

ROBERTSON: Earlier in the day, insurgents sent their own powerful message, apparently coordinated rocket and gun attacks on three different police stations in an area about 120 miles northwest of Baghdad.

"They executed nine policemen with no resistance," says this resident. "They took their weapons, made them stand up by the wall, and shot them in one (UNINTELLIGIBLE.)"

Local health officials report 21 dead, including a senior police chief.

(on camera): To the south of Baghdad, a fire fight between insurgents and coalition and Iraqi forces killed at least six civilians and wounded four others.

Too soon to say if the state of emergency is a state of fact or an announcement that can reshape Iraqis lives. Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad, Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: For thousands of U.S. troops on the outskirts of Falluja, this may be the calm before the storm. CNN's Karl Penhaul is embedded with American forces as they wait for word to move in.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Preparations for a possible all-out astall on Falluja, and now in their final stages. You can see behind me some of these Marines sitting around, cleaning weapons for the final time. They're sitting there, not because they don't have anything to do, but literally because everything is packed. Their backpacks are packed, their weapons are just about cleaned, the ammunition is counted out. These Marines are certainly ready to roll out of this camp when the order comes.

Now, in the course of the morning, senior commanders from the 1st Marine Expeditionary force visited this camp on the outskirts of Falluja in the desert, and they came to give a pep talk and pump up the marines.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SGT. MAJ. CARLTON KENT, U.S. MARINE CORPS: Once they tell us to go, and they give us the word, if they tell us to go, you're going to make history. This is another Wei City (ph) in the making. And you Devil Dogs, you soldiers, you sailors, and if we've got airmen, y'all are going to do it.

This town is being held hostage by mugs, thugs, murderers and intimidaters. All they need is for us to give them the opportunity to break the back of that intimidation. To go in there and stomp it out where it needs to be stomped.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PENHAUL: As we can see from the talks that those senior commanders gave their Marines, they're taking this fight very seriously in historical terms. The commanders say that the fight for Falluja could be the Marines' biggest fight since 1968 in Vietnam.

They also realize that this is urban warfare, and they said that it could get bloody and that the fight for Falluja could get dirty very quickly. Karl Penhaul, CNN, near Falluja.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Let's talk more about urban warfare. This could be dangerous territory for U.S. forces moving in to Falluja, so I want to bring in our CNN military analyst and retired Marine Major General Terry Murray. General, good to have you.

MAJ. GEN. TERRY MURRAY, (RET) CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Thank you, Carol.

LIN: Really hard to tell exactly what's happening. Of course, we in the media like a definitive beginning, middle and an end. Hard to know when this battle is actually going to start. What are you looking for?

MURRAY: I think what will be very key to what takes place once the attack begins is, how many of these insurgents and terrorists, these foreign fighters have actually stayed in Falluja. We hear numbers anywhere from 1,500 to 6,000. That's a tremendous difference.

A related question is, do they possess the will to fight? And how well are they organized? Will they fight in pockets throughout the city? Or will they put up an integrated defense? And we won't be able to answer these questions until the troops actually begin the attack.

LIN: Right. And when the -- actually being in the attack, the kind of fighting you're talking about is perhaps hand-to-hand, door- to-door. But there is fighting going on now. Certainly, bombing missions that have certainly accelerated. We are waiting for word whether troops will be officially mobilized for any sort of land assault. But it's hard to know the chicken or the egg.

What order, what likely scenario are you looking for in this type of battle situation?

MURRAY: What is taking place right now, Carol, is our forces, the coalition forces, have isolated the objective. That is, all of Falluja. They have put security elements all around the city, so that they control access into the city and access out of the city.

LIN: General, is there an American -- you know, can you liken that to any city in America in terms of its size or complexity?

MURRAY: I really can't. But it's a 300,000-people city. And in the event we have to go in and clear buildings, one after the next, we're talking about thousands of buildings that potentially will have to be cleared in this city.

So a quarter of a million or more people, probably 50,000 or so we speculate, may still be in the city. This is going to be a major challenge. It will not go fast assuming that the insurgents provide resistance as soon as we begin the attack.

LING: Which we don't know.

Meantime, this combination of Iraqi forces and American forces who's actually leading the attack? And if it is the Iraqi forces, what role do the American forces play?

MURRAY: Well, I would hope that we will push the Iraqis out front as early as we can. It is our best interest, in part because they speak the language. They understand the Sunni Muslims who occupy this city. But I would hope that we will have the coalition forces from Iraq at the point. If they are not capable of carrying the day, being at the point, then of course you've got some 10,000 of Marines and some soldiers who will be ready to go right at their heels. And again, we can only guess right now how they will form, and enter the city.

LIN: And guessing is a dangerous game when certainly we're facing -- the U.S. is facing a major battle, a definitive battle potentially in Falluja. We'll see what happens. I know it's going to be a busy night, General, and we're glad to have you with us.

MURRAY: Thank you, Carol.

LIN: Well, Yasser Arafat still lies in a hospital near Paris tonight. A makeshift tribute of candles and flowers have sprung up. Now Arafat's in critical but stable condition, but it has been another day of conflicting reports about whether or not his death is imminent.

Now Monday, a Palestinian delegation will visit Paris. Palestinian prime Minister Ahmed Qorei and his predecesser Mahmoud Abbas are said to be part of the group.

The Middle East is at a turning point one way or another. Mamoun Fandy is a senior fellow with both the Baker Institute at Rice University and the United States Institute of Peace.

Mamoun, I know you've been watching and waiting as we all have to see whether Yasser Arafat's condition takes a turn for the worse, or a turn for the better. Given that we have the conflicting statements out of the Palestinian leadership, no, he's in a coma, yes, he's in a coma, but he can come back out of it, it's medically induced, he's just sleeping. What does this word play mean to you? Why are there so many conflicting statements coming out of the leadership?

MAMOUN FANDY, RICE UNIVERSITY: Well first of all, I think basically the decision by his wife is that all the statements should come through the hospital. But in many ways, everybody around Arafat today as you've seen, Carol, is that they are behaving that Arafat is really no more as a leader of the Palestinians in a sense, because even if he recovers from that, he will be incapacitated for a while. So they're behaving in really a post-Arafat era.

But there is a lot at stake here. There is an issue of who replaces him, how do we accommodate the interests of the Egyptians, the Jordanians, Israelis and the Americans in the new leadership, what to do with the total control of money and power that Arafat has. So there is a great deal to take care of, even including the idea of the site of his burial if he passes away.

LIN: Right. So many big questions. But let's take a look at some of the smaller moments and see how telling they really are. Mahmoud Abbas, Ahmed Qorei getting on a plane and going to Paris to pay their respects to Yasser Arafat. That is not a good sign, necessarily.

FANDY: Well, it is not a good sign. It's obvious, so Arafat and Mohammed Dahlan, the former chief of the security in Gaza, and Abbas (ph) who is apparently close to her and closer to Arafat as well to go and brief the leadership.

Those who are going back, are Mahmoud Abbas, the former prime minister. And he's highly respected among the Palestinians, does not have power base, however. Ahmed Qorei, the current prime minister. Who's also close to the Jordanians, and also he's the man who midwifed Oslo.

So all these people are going there, and also Farouk Kaddoumi is the candidate of Syria. So there is actually something, some semblance of really trying to put together a team that appeals for everybody.

LIN: All right. Teamwork among the Palestinians. How likely is it to remain teamwork? How likely is it that there's going to be civil war before new leadership arises?

FANDY: We have a big unknown here in this whole equation, And this is what Ahmed Qorei wanted to do when he went to Gaza yesterday to talk to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. And these are the people with the guns on the ground and with the following. And if they cannot manage to get Hamas onboard, and other Islamists in the territory, then you are looking at the worst case scenario where chaos might be the replacement for Arafat.

LIN: All right. We shall see what happens. Mamoun, always good to have you. Thank you.

FANDY: Thank you, Carol.

LIN: Straight ahead tonight, President Bush calls him an architect. And others say he is a political genius. So, will the president's chief political mastermind actually shape policy in the second term?

Plus, looking for bin Laden. Tonight, I've got a rare interview with a bin Laden scholar on how Osama can be caught.

And there are the Bush fans who don't like to brag. Conservatives living in a Democratic blue state, keep quiet about their glee.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Five days after the election, and the focus is on the man who helped win it for President Bush. Karl Rove knew which voters to go after, and what the hot button issues that would drive them to the polls would be for Mr. Bush. Now, CNN's Elaine Quijano reports he might even have a bigger role in the second term, Elaine?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Perhaps not bigger, but equally as influential, Carol. Karl Rove, as we all know, enjoys a prime spot at the decision-making table, a direct link into the Oval Office. And those who know Mr. Rove say that it's very likely his influence will continue to be felt well into the president's second term.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO (voice-over): His official title is senior adviser to the president. But the commander in chief calls him...

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The architect, Karl Rove.

QUIJANO: As the architect Karl Rove drew up the plans to reach out to rural and conservative voters, bringing them to the polls in big numbers and leading President Bush to victory. Republicans give Rove high praise.

KEN DUBERSTEIN, FRM. REAGAN W.H. CHIEF OF STAFF: Somebody who is incredibly strategic, who is insightful, who is thoughtful, somebody who is a keen student of history, and somebody who clearly has the president's total confidence.

QUIJANO: And even some Democrats give him high marks.

DONNA BRAZILE, FRM. GORE CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Karl Rove is the master of the game.

QUIJANO: Fellow political strategist Donna Brazile was campaign manager for the Gore/Lieberman ticket. She says while other political operatives kept forging after the 2000 race, Rove took time out to study what happened.

BRAZILE: He called together all his top advisers and he looked at the results and decided that it was important that in the future elections, the president not only energize and mobilize the base, but grow his base.

QUIJANO: A strategy that worked, in large part by focusing GOP efforts on so-called excerpts, growing new communities that lie just beyond older suburbs.

Now, less than a week after garnering his second presidential win, Rove is talking policy, not campaign strategy. The president's top political adviser says Mr. Bush will move ahead to push for a federal amendment banning gay marriage.

ROVE: Without the protection of that amendment, we are at the mercy of activist federal judges, or activist state judges.

QUIJANO: And while Rove says, while the president has an obligation to keep campaign promises, when it comes to appointing judges...

ROVE: The judges are to be impartial umpires, not activists, not legislators who happen to be wearing robes, but to be impartial umpries who strictly interpret the constitution and apply it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO: Now also on the list of the president's priorities, Social Security reform, tort reform and simplifying the tax code. And Karl Rove says on all of those agenda items, the president plans to reach out to Democrats, to explain the basis for his decisions, and to try to find some common ground -- Carol.

LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Elaine.

So now I'm going to take a look at who is actually going to stay and who will go in the second Bush administration. Some of these current members might be leaving. Paul Light is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He joins me right now. Paul, thank you very much for being here.

PAUL LIGHT, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Nice to be here.

LIN: Interesting to hear Elaine Quijano's report on Karl Rove. I mean, strategy is one thing, do you think he will take up any of the administration positions?

LIGHT: Oh, I don't think so.

LIN: You don't think so? Karl Rove, chief justice on the Supreme Court, unlikely?

LIGHT: That is beyond belief.

LIN: OK. Fair enough.

LIGHT: It's quite unusual to see him even coming out to appear on a news program, actually. That's a sign that we're in the second term for sure.

LIN: You're right. Shortly before election night, we saw him in a halloween costume as a hunting guard carrying an orange pumpkin, making a statement there.

All right. Let's talk about more of the realistic scenario. Donald Rumsfeld, do expect that he's going to stay on as secretary of defense?

LIGHT; I think he would like to stay on. I mean, he's in the middle of a significant defense transformation. He's working hard to realign the department. He understands, I'm sure, that it takes time to accomplish the kind of change that he's pursuing. I don't have any special insight, or I don't have any special news on him. But I think if he wants to stay, I think that's his call.

LIN: No secret, though, that John Ashcroft may want to leave his position at the Justice Department?

LIGHT: Good-bye, John Ashcroft. He's gone. It's a question of timing. I just don't think that there's any scenario under which he stays.

LIN: Is it likely that he might be nominated to a U.S. Supreme Court position if one opens up?

LIGHT: I think he should be looking back to where he'll live in Missouri or here in Washington. I can't imagine that he would be nominated for the Supreme Court.

He's much too much of a polarizing figure at this point. Maybe with time, maybe with a little bit of distance, he might return in some way, shape or form. But no, I don't think that he's a candidate for senior nomination like that.

LIN: Does anybody expect that Colin Powell would even considering staying, as secretary of state?

LIGHT: I certainly haven't heard anything to that effect. You know, he may be doing some thinking about what he'd like to do in 2008. People don't talk about him as a presidential candidate at this point, but there's going to be a very significant battle over the future of the Republican Party and it's going to begin in a matter of months rather than years. So Colin Powell may yet surprise everybody and decide to reenter the political fray.

LIN: Really? That would be interesting, given his disdain for inside the Beltway politics. And frankly, the outcome so far of the Iraq war.

LIGHT: Well, he would be a formidable presence in the campaign. And if he decides to run, he would advance to the top of the pack rather quickly.

But in the past, he has said that he doesn't want to do this. It's too difficult. But I wouldn't be surprised if he took some time for reflection on a possible bid.

LIN: All right. Thank you very much. Paul Light.

LIGHT: Very welcome.

LIN: We'll see what happens.

Up next, a battle with a broadcast network. The programming seen by millions of Arabs living around the world in their living rooms, is it merely anti-American propaganda?

And later, closing in on al Qaeda. The clues in the bin Laden tape. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Every day, world news is dominated by events in Iraq and the Middle East, but when people in that part of the world tune in, do they get an accurate picture of events? CNN's Brian Todd looks at one particular media outlet, and its very controversial message.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In a region long since overtaken by the explosion of satellite TV and 24-hour programming, where criticism of the U.S. or Israel can be found with virtually any click, one network has some observers and governments doing a double-take.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Almanar makes al Jazeera look like a Girl Scout cookie infomercial.

TODD: Almanar, Arabic for the Beacon, has become a guiding light for critics, who accuse the station of being the propaganda arm of the militant Shiite group, Hezbollah.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The station is looking to inspire what we call in the West quote unquote, suicide attacks and what they call martyrdom operations. They very open about the fact that they support, rhetorically, these attacks against the American soldiers and against Israelis.

TODD: A charge flatly denied by the network. Still, there's concern, reinforced by images of a skeletal statue of liberty dripping blood. Or of Hitler and his forces juxtaposed with President Bush and his.

A top official at Almanar admits philosophical agreements with Hezbollah, but denies that the network takes its marching orders from the group.

We asked him how his station views the United states.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: George W. Bush says that he's a friend of -- of the peace and he's a peaceful man. So, I mean, this is -- this is distorting the realities and the facts. But we have never broadcast anything to incite hatred.

TODD: But many still want the U.S. to crack down on Al-Manar for its ties to Hezbollah, which despite its status as a legitimate political party in Lebanon, has long been designated as a terrorist organization by the State Department.

ADAM ERELI, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: I would say Al-Manar Television and its relationship with Hezbollah is something that we -- we note and follow carefully. But I leave it at that.

TODD: What U.S. officials can, will or should do with Al-Manar is up for debate.

OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SR. EDITOR FOR ARAB AFFAIRS: If you decide to go after Al-Manar, does that mean you'll go after every single station that disseminates messages that you do not agree with?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: The French government has come under pressure to shut down Al-Manar's signal there, but the network can still be seen elsewhere in Europe and on some American cable systems -- Carol.

LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Brian, with that.

Here is also the latest situation in Falluja, which we're keeping our eye on right now. U.S. and Iraqi troops are awaiting orders to attack the rebel-held stronghold after receiving pep talks from their commanding officers. Now, Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says the time for talking is over. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AYAD ALLAWI, IRAQI INTERIM PRIME MINISTER: Absolutely, we can't wait indefinitely. And we have made our case (ph) very clear.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: Well, Prime Minister Allawi has declared a state of emergency in Iraq.

Although it is one of America's allies, Saudi Arabia is still a breeding ground for terrorists. So up next tonight, a sneak peek at a "CNN PRESENTS" special: "Kingdom On The Brink" with Nic Robertson.

Also, in the eye of the storm, new parents learn their newborn daughter has a life-threatening heart defect, and the timing could not have been worse.

And later, seeking refuge. After today's -- or, actually, Tuesday's election, many Americans are now looking north to escape.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: This just in. While we wait for the major assault on the city of Falluja in Iraq, we have learned that Iraqi special forces have taken control of the main hospital in Falluja, taken control without firing a single shot. This video just in to the CNN Center.

This marks the start of what we expect will be a major offensive to retake that city back from insurgents. Important to get control of this hospital, because it has been a foundation or grounds for the insurgents' anti-war propaganda.

In the past, hospital officials have said that innocent civilians were being killed in the assault on Falluja. That, apparently, the military not thinking to be true.

In the meantime, in other parts of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and the home to two of its holiest sites. It is a staunch U.S. ally, but also a breeding ground for terrorists, most notably Osama bin Laden. Now, as we hear from CNN senior international correspondent, Nic Robertson, Saudi Arabia has become a kingdom in crisis.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK, this is Suwaidi Street.

ROBERTSON (voice-over): And this is Abdullah Al-Otabi (ph). He's taking me and my cameraman to Suwaidi, one of the capital's poorest districts.

(on camera): They arrested you here?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. ROBERTSON (voice-over): That was more than 10 years ago. He was a radical jihadi and went to jail for his beliefs. Today he says he's reformed, but not Suwaidi.

(on camera): It's become over the years a recruiting ground for al Qaeda. And government officials here say it's not safe for us to get out of the car.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You see McDonald's?

ROBERTSON (on camera): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: McDonald's in Suwaidi.

ROBERTSON (voice-over): The drive is a surreal and chilling experience.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: BBC killed here.

ROBERTSON: The month before, journalist Simon Cumbers, a close friend of mine, was shot dead while filming for the BBC. Local jihadis were blamed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They hit American and hit the British.

ROBERTSON: The simple understanding in Suwaidi, westerners are not welcome.

From an office across town, Abdullah's working to undermine the extremists. But it's not been easy. Government clerics got him banned from writing for months, for saying their religious teachings helped breed terrorism.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): It is one of the first articles that directly say that we have flaws in the locally preached religious message.

ROBERTSON: A message that in Suwaidi spawned a now dead al Qaeda leader, Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin. Muqrin rose to prominence through a spate of violence attacks beginning with the Muhaya (ph) compound in November 2003. He's best known in the west for his brutal beheading of U.S. engineer Paul Johnson.

To Abdullah, Muqrin was an angry man, propelled towards terrorism by the same radical interpretation of the Koran that religious teachers use to ensnare him. It was a message that was everywhere in Suwaidi, not just the mosque.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Now you can see Nic Robertson's look inside Saudi Arabia, the growing threat from al Qaeda and the stability of the ruling family. "Kingdom On The Brink: The Battle For Saudi Arabia" premiers at 8:00 Eastern, 5:00 Pacific, right here on CNN.

Well, as we saw in the last few days of the presidential campaign, al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden are still out there. But this just in right now to the CNN Center. Fresh video out of Falluja as we wait for a major offensive to take place in that city. You are watching as Iraqi special forces are taking control of the main hospital in Falluja.

Now, this is supposed to mark the start of this major offensive into Falluja, as U.S. forces back up these Iraqi forces on the go- ahead from the Iraqi government to take back this city from insurgents. Important to take this hospital so that the doctors can treat any war casualties unimpeded, without any pressure from the insurgents to spout anti-American propaganda, like Americans are killing civilians, et cetera. More on this as we follow it and the story -- important story as it grows out of Falluja tonight.

In the meantime, I do want to talk about the latest on Osama bin Laden. You'll recall that that compelling videotape released the weekend before the U.S. elections of Osama bin Laden warning Americans that al Qaeda again.

Now, Rohan Gunaratna is the author of a book called "Inside al Qaeda." It is a rare opportunity to get him on camera for an interview on this subject.

Rohan, thank you very much for being with us.

ROHAN GUNARATNA, AUTHOR, "INSIDE AL QAEDA": Thank you.

LIN: When you took a look at that videotape, did you get a sense that Osama bin Laden cared who was elected president of the United States? And, if so, what do you think his reaction was when President Bush was reelected?

GUNARATNA: For Osama bin Laden, it really does not matter whether it was Kerry or Bush who was reelected. For him, his anger is against the United States and the U.S. foreign policy. In terms of who was elected, it really does not matter to him.

LIN: It doesn't? So having President Bush reelected, does it make an attack inside the United States more likely, less likely?

GUNARATNA: Al Qaeda will strike when it is operationally ready to strike. Al Qaeda will continue to build its capabilities inside the United States and attack the United States when it believes that it can succeed in its operation.

LIN: And at what operational stage -- do you have any indication what operational stage they may be at inside the United States?

GUNARATNA: Al Qaeda has attempted several operations inside the United States after 9/11. Most of those operations have been detected and disrupted, or they have been aborted.

LIN: Can you be more specific? What were they?

GUNARATNA: Well, there has been a number of operations that have been disrupted by the FBI and by enforcement agencies. But these have been mostly related to al Qaeda operatives being arrested inside the United States.

We also saw on the 3rd of August in Britain an al Qaeda cell that was disrupted. And they were in many ways developing targets to attack inside the United States. They included the Prudential Building, the Citigroup.

LIN: Right.

GUNARATNA: So in many ways, we are seeing that the threat against the United States, the threat to attack the United States has not diminished.

LIN: How is it that Osama bin Laden can freely make these videotapes, disseminate these videotapes and U.S. agents cannot catch this man?

GUNARATNA: It is because Osama is believed to be located on the Afghan-Pakistan border, an area where he enjoys significant support. An area where Pakistani forces do not have control over. The area where we call as the tribal zone.

LIN: Right. So what's it going to do to build intelligence in that area, which is completely wild and, frankly, anti-American?

GUNARATNA: It will require sustained efforts on the part of the Pakistani, Afghan, as well as the U.S. government, primarily to build human intelligence, high-grade, high-quality intelligence that will enable U.S. or Pakistani troops to precisely target the al Qaeda leadership that is still located in that area.

LIN: Rohan Gunaratna, I know the area that you're talking about is wild indeed. And that will take years and many blessings and much luck. Thank you very much. Rohan Gunaratna, author of inside al Qaeda.

Well, he's been told to pack his bags for Iraq. But this former soldier says he is not going. Find out how and why he's fighting back.

But up next, dealing with a crisis in a crisis. They were bracing for a hurricane, but this family ended up at a hospital instead. Their story coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Checking news "Across America" right now.

In Hawaii, a veteran of the first Persian Gulf War is suing the Army, which is ordering him to report to duty years after he was honorably discharged. The Army is involuntary activating thousands of soldiers to serve in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

And oh, Canada. Thousands of Americans may be thinking about moving north. They're that angry about President Bush being reelected. A record number of Americans are checking out the Canadian immigration Web site, looking for information. And in the Big Apple, a British woman and a south African man won the New York City marathon today. The women's race was a nail-biter. Paula Radcliffe crossed the finish line just four seconds before a Kenyan competitor.

Now, in Florida, many people hard hit by Hurricane Charley are still trying to piece their lives and their homes back together. Nearly three months after the storm, hundreds still do not have temporary housing. One politician estimates only half the people who need mobile homes and travel trailers actually have them, and many who don't are staying with family, friends or at motels.

And amid the destruction and dislocation, a story of hope and survival. A Florida family fled Hurricane Ivan only to discover it paled in comparison to their newborn's personal struggle. CNN senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta has the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Like many other families living on Florida's Panhandle, the Diloreto's were worried about the one, two, three punch of this year's hurricane season. But, Scott and Melanie were a little different. They had just given birth to Macey, only eleven days before Hurricane Ivan, the third major hurricane of the 2004 season was to hit Florida. And like other families, they made plans to evacuate.

MELANIE DILORETO, HURRICANE SURVIVOR: At the time, we hadn't been told that we had to leave when we decide to evacuate, but just because of having the new baby, we didn't want to take any chances.

GUPTA: So, Scott and Melanie drove to the closest place with an open hotel room, Montgomery, Alabama, but the damage from the storm would soon become the least of their worries.

SCOTT DILORETO, HURRICANE SURVIVOR: I turned to Melanie and said "This is worse than a nightmare," and I was trying to find a word that meant -- you know, what is -- what's the word that means worse than a nightmare, and her answer to me was, "our reality."

M. DILORETO: We got word Hurricane Ivan was going to head up to Montgomery on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, Macey stopped eating, I guess it was probably Thursday morning, she had stopped eating, started vomiting.

GUPTA: So, Scott and Melanie braved the winds and the rain and took her to the closest emergency room.

S. DILORETO: They did an echogram on her heart and it was -- it was operating at five percent of the normal.

GUPTA: Macey was born with a heart defect known as aortic corotation, where the main artery that supplies the body with blood can be almost completely blocked. But the hospital in Alabama had lost power and doctors felt that Macey's condition needed the attention of experts at Children's Health Care of Atlanta, the only way to get there in time, a helicopter.

S. DILORETO: The helicopter came over to pick up Melanie and Macey and I had to say goodbye to them while they flew over to Children's Hospital.

ANDY BURNHART, FLIGHT PARAMEDIC: We were able to make her heart work a little easier, just make her a little more comfortable for the ride back.

GUPTA: After she arrived in Atlanta at only three weeks old, Macey underwent open heart surgery to fix her condition. And the surgery was successful.

(on camera): Macey is doing well and returned to Texas with mom and grandma while Scott returned to Pensacola to see what he could reclaim from their hurricane damaged home.

M. DILORETO: Our perception is completely changed on what the devastation of what a hurricane can bring, just based on her condition being in the hospital, we didn't even have time to think about our house.

GUPTA (voice-over): Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Wow.

All right. Blue states on the edges, and the red ones in between. It's no understatement, we are a divided country. Straight ahead, tonight, what's life like for Bush supporters living in Democratic blue territory?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: People who voted for President Bush are savoring their election victory, except for some Bush fans in so-called blue states. The electoral map shows a sea of red surrounded by a handful of blue states that went for Kerry. Now, there's -- some Bush supporters are finding discretion may be the better part of victory. Let's find out from CNN's Alina Cho.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New York: bright lights, big city, full of Democrats who can't stand the thought of four more years...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am frightened.

CHO: ... of President Bush.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All my friends said, you know, "Let's head for Canada."

CHO (on camera): So in liberal Manhattan, where just 17 percent voted Republican, it's tough for the party faithful to celebrate, even though things are going their way for four more years.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I just feel like the annoying right-wing chick.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And I haven't called any of my Democrat friends since Election Day. I'm letting them all cool off.

CHO (voice-over): Good idea.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I saw fear in people's eyes. Someone told me they want to crawl in their bed and pull their head over their covers. And they were like serious.

CHO: May Hays (ph), Robert Hornack (ph) and Jen Tramitosi (ph) are members of New York's Young Republicans Club.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I can't stand hearing people say that Bush is an idiot.

CHO: They talked to us in the comfort of Jen's (ph) New York apartment, where "National Review" gets top billing in the magazine basket, where they can't be told by Democrats they're out of their minds.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't want them to get hostile with me. You know, they'll just scream at you, or they'll just walk away from you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One of my friends ate a chocolate cake by herself she was so sad. I wasn't going to turn around and tell her, "Well, guess what? Sorry, we also took more seats in Congress."

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Flip the table. Say if Kerry won, people would be rubbing it in our face, guaranteed.

CHO: Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch, a lifelong Democrat who himself took heat for supporting the president, said New York Republicans should stand up proudly and cheer.

ED KOCH (D), FMR. NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: You won. Put your hands up and say, "I won."

CHO: Meg Hayes (ph) says no way.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's like cheering for the Red Sox in New York. I mean...

CHO: Alina Cho, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Good point.

Now we want to update the situation in Falluja, which is going to be a breaking story throughout the night. Artillery fire has been lighting up the night sky as U.S. and Iraqi forces await orders for a full-scale attack on the rebel-held stronghold.

These pictures just in show Iraqi commandos taking control of the main hospital in Falluja. Pool reporters say they met little resistance. American commanders have told their troops the moment of truth is fast approaching.

Stay with CNN as troops do begin the battle for Falluja. CNN's Karl Penhaul and Jane Arraf are with the troops, and they're going to join us as soon as those troops move in. And I will break into programming tonight as events warrant.

That's all the time we have for this particular hour. But coming up next on "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS," Tom Hanks and Rod Stewart.

And at 8:00 Eastern, "CNN PRESENTS, Kingdom On The Brink: The Battle For Saudi Arabia."

At 9:00, "LARRY KING WEEKEND." And tonight, Larry's guest is Celine Dion.

And, of course, I'm going to be back at 10:00 Eastern for CNN SUNDAY NIGHT. We're going to be following the developing situation in Falluja. And also, I'm going to have the hour's headlines when we come back. And then, of course, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired November 7, 2004 - 18:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: In Iraq, an all-out offensive on Falljua is thought to be imminent. A reporter says Iraqi forces with U.S. and coalition troops have taken over the city's main hospital without firing a shot. Meanwhile, Iraq's interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi declares a state of emergency for most of the country. Today alone, at least 32 people died in violence.
And there's confusion tonight about Yasser Arafat's condition. A Palestinian Authority official tells CNN, Arafat is in a coma. And that contradicts an earlier report that he was not in a coma.

Now, the current and former Palestinian prime ministers plan to visit him in a Paris hospital tomorrow.

And right here in the United States, gasoline prices have fallen about 3 cents a gallon in the past two weeks. The average price for a gallon of self-serve regular is $2.01.

I'm Carol Lin. And welcome to CNN LIVE SUNDAY.

On the brink of battle, U.S. troops could be just hours away from major fighting in Falluja.

Four more years, who will stay, who will go in the next Bush administration.

And will the president's political architect take an even more powerful job in the administration?

And closing in on al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden's alive and well, but what will happen now that the president has been reelected? I'm going to talk to the foremost terror experts about what is going to happen next.

But up first this hour, gearing up to move in. Falluja, Iraq, bracing tonight for an inspected, or at least an expected, rather, all-out U.S. and Iraqi assault. Today, Marines were told it will be a historic operation.

There are new developments this hour. And CNN's Jamie McIntyre is watching them from the Pentagon. Jamie, it certainly does feel like hurry up and wait with so much at stake.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, there has been some activity, as you said. Within the last couple of hours, Iraqi special forces have taken the main hospital on the western edge of Falluja. Now Pentagon officials say that taking the hospital was one of the initial objectives. In order to ensure its use as a hospital facility, without the intimidation of insurgents and also to end its use of a source of anti-U.S. propaganda.

But what is stil unclear, is when the main push into the city will begin.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): U.S. troops encircling Falluja have been anxious to take the offensive after months of being on the receiving end of suicide attacks and roadside bombs.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were riding down the road and we're looking through the planks. And we just passed by an ID and it blew up in our face. I can't even hear anything.

MCINTYRE: What goes through your mind when this happens?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just anger, anger. That's all I can think of. I just really want to find the person who did it. That's all I want.

MCINTYRE: While confident of victory, the U.S. military is under no illusions that the battle of Falluja will be the insurgents last stand. The stated military objective is limited to driving the insurgents out and returning control to local leaders, who will work with the central government in Baghdad so the city can take part in elections set for January.

It is not expected the assault will break the back of the insurgency or even capture or kill terrorist leader Abu Musab al- Zarqawi, who may well have slipped out of Falluja, along with many of his top lieutenants, given how well telegraphed the offensive has been.

GEN. GEORGE JOULWAN, FRM. NATO SUPREME COMMANDER: My guess is, we have lost strategic surprise in this fight. Hopefully, we can get tactical surprise, choosing the time and place of when we'll go in.

MCINTYRE: With U.S. commanders giving pep talks to troops in the field, and Iraq's prime minister putting much of the country, all signs suggest the assault is imminent.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: The big question mark remains the performance of Iraqi troops, which by all accounts are better trained, but still not up to U.S. military standards. However, Carol, so far, so good. It was Iraqi commandos, special forces that took that hospital in Falluja without firing a shot just hours ago -- Carol.

LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Jamie McIntyre tracking these events from the Pentagon. The goal of the Falluja assault to uproot insurgents, but most of Iraq is under a state of emergency after a day of considerable bloodshed. CNN senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is in Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just minutes after the stated emergency was declared, this ambulance raced through Baghdad streets on its way to the aftermath of a car bombing near the home of Iraq's interim finance minister.

Only moments before, a government spokesman blamed "continuous crimes by terrorists" as the reason behind the state of emergency.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We have decided to declare this state of emergency throughout Iraq, except for Kurdistan in the north. And for 60 days.

ROBERTSON: At the same time, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi met with his security chiefs. His own powers will be strengthened as a result of the declaration, granting him extraordinary authorities that he can delegate to civilian and military officials.

He is also empowered to commence speedy military and security decisions, seek the assistance of a multinational force, impose curfews, control communications with strict transportation, measures which in some cases, the transitional government has also implemented on occasion over the past few months.

Allawi, however, urged insurgents to heed his new authority.

AYAD ALLAWI, INTERIM IRAQI PRIME MINISTER: This will send a very powerful message that we are serious. We want direction to (UNINTELLIGIBLE). We want to secure the countries where elections could be done in a peaceful way and the Iraq people to pass different elections freely without intimidation.

ROBERTSON: Earlier in the day, insurgents sent their own powerful message, apparently coordinated rocket and gun attacks on three different police stations in an area about 120 miles northwest of Baghdad.

"They executed nine policemen with no resistance," says this resident. "They took their weapons, made them stand up by the wall, and shot them in one (UNINTELLIGIBLE.)"

Local health officials report 21 dead, including a senior police chief.

(on camera): To the south of Baghdad, a fire fight between insurgents and coalition and Iraqi forces killed at least six civilians and wounded four others.

Too soon to say if the state of emergency is a state of fact or an announcement that can reshape Iraqis lives. Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad, Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: For thousands of U.S. troops on the outskirts of Falluja, this may be the calm before the storm. CNN's Karl Penhaul is embedded with American forces as they wait for word to move in.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Preparations for a possible all-out astall on Falluja, and now in their final stages. You can see behind me some of these Marines sitting around, cleaning weapons for the final time. They're sitting there, not because they don't have anything to do, but literally because everything is packed. Their backpacks are packed, their weapons are just about cleaned, the ammunition is counted out. These Marines are certainly ready to roll out of this camp when the order comes.

Now, in the course of the morning, senior commanders from the 1st Marine Expeditionary force visited this camp on the outskirts of Falluja in the desert, and they came to give a pep talk and pump up the marines.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SGT. MAJ. CARLTON KENT, U.S. MARINE CORPS: Once they tell us to go, and they give us the word, if they tell us to go, you're going to make history. This is another Wei City (ph) in the making. And you Devil Dogs, you soldiers, you sailors, and if we've got airmen, y'all are going to do it.

This town is being held hostage by mugs, thugs, murderers and intimidaters. All they need is for us to give them the opportunity to break the back of that intimidation. To go in there and stomp it out where it needs to be stomped.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PENHAUL: As we can see from the talks that those senior commanders gave their Marines, they're taking this fight very seriously in historical terms. The commanders say that the fight for Falluja could be the Marines' biggest fight since 1968 in Vietnam.

They also realize that this is urban warfare, and they said that it could get bloody and that the fight for Falluja could get dirty very quickly. Karl Penhaul, CNN, near Falluja.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Let's talk more about urban warfare. This could be dangerous territory for U.S. forces moving in to Falluja, so I want to bring in our CNN military analyst and retired Marine Major General Terry Murray. General, good to have you.

MAJ. GEN. TERRY MURRAY, (RET) CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Thank you, Carol.

LIN: Really hard to tell exactly what's happening. Of course, we in the media like a definitive beginning, middle and an end. Hard to know when this battle is actually going to start. What are you looking for?

MURRAY: I think what will be very key to what takes place once the attack begins is, how many of these insurgents and terrorists, these foreign fighters have actually stayed in Falluja. We hear numbers anywhere from 1,500 to 6,000. That's a tremendous difference.

A related question is, do they possess the will to fight? And how well are they organized? Will they fight in pockets throughout the city? Or will they put up an integrated defense? And we won't be able to answer these questions until the troops actually begin the attack.

LIN: Right. And when the -- actually being in the attack, the kind of fighting you're talking about is perhaps hand-to-hand, door- to-door. But there is fighting going on now. Certainly, bombing missions that have certainly accelerated. We are waiting for word whether troops will be officially mobilized for any sort of land assault. But it's hard to know the chicken or the egg.

What order, what likely scenario are you looking for in this type of battle situation?

MURRAY: What is taking place right now, Carol, is our forces, the coalition forces, have isolated the objective. That is, all of Falluja. They have put security elements all around the city, so that they control access into the city and access out of the city.

LIN: General, is there an American -- you know, can you liken that to any city in America in terms of its size or complexity?

MURRAY: I really can't. But it's a 300,000-people city. And in the event we have to go in and clear buildings, one after the next, we're talking about thousands of buildings that potentially will have to be cleared in this city.

So a quarter of a million or more people, probably 50,000 or so we speculate, may still be in the city. This is going to be a major challenge. It will not go fast assuming that the insurgents provide resistance as soon as we begin the attack.

LING: Which we don't know.

Meantime, this combination of Iraqi forces and American forces who's actually leading the attack? And if it is the Iraqi forces, what role do the American forces play?

MURRAY: Well, I would hope that we will push the Iraqis out front as early as we can. It is our best interest, in part because they speak the language. They understand the Sunni Muslims who occupy this city. But I would hope that we will have the coalition forces from Iraq at the point. If they are not capable of carrying the day, being at the point, then of course you've got some 10,000 of Marines and some soldiers who will be ready to go right at their heels. And again, we can only guess right now how they will form, and enter the city.

LIN: And guessing is a dangerous game when certainly we're facing -- the U.S. is facing a major battle, a definitive battle potentially in Falluja. We'll see what happens. I know it's going to be a busy night, General, and we're glad to have you with us.

MURRAY: Thank you, Carol.

LIN: Well, Yasser Arafat still lies in a hospital near Paris tonight. A makeshift tribute of candles and flowers have sprung up. Now Arafat's in critical but stable condition, but it has been another day of conflicting reports about whether or not his death is imminent.

Now Monday, a Palestinian delegation will visit Paris. Palestinian prime Minister Ahmed Qorei and his predecesser Mahmoud Abbas are said to be part of the group.

The Middle East is at a turning point one way or another. Mamoun Fandy is a senior fellow with both the Baker Institute at Rice University and the United States Institute of Peace.

Mamoun, I know you've been watching and waiting as we all have to see whether Yasser Arafat's condition takes a turn for the worse, or a turn for the better. Given that we have the conflicting statements out of the Palestinian leadership, no, he's in a coma, yes, he's in a coma, but he can come back out of it, it's medically induced, he's just sleeping. What does this word play mean to you? Why are there so many conflicting statements coming out of the leadership?

MAMOUN FANDY, RICE UNIVERSITY: Well first of all, I think basically the decision by his wife is that all the statements should come through the hospital. But in many ways, everybody around Arafat today as you've seen, Carol, is that they are behaving that Arafat is really no more as a leader of the Palestinians in a sense, because even if he recovers from that, he will be incapacitated for a while. So they're behaving in really a post-Arafat era.

But there is a lot at stake here. There is an issue of who replaces him, how do we accommodate the interests of the Egyptians, the Jordanians, Israelis and the Americans in the new leadership, what to do with the total control of money and power that Arafat has. So there is a great deal to take care of, even including the idea of the site of his burial if he passes away.

LIN: Right. So many big questions. But let's take a look at some of the smaller moments and see how telling they really are. Mahmoud Abbas, Ahmed Qorei getting on a plane and going to Paris to pay their respects to Yasser Arafat. That is not a good sign, necessarily.

FANDY: Well, it is not a good sign. It's obvious, so Arafat and Mohammed Dahlan, the former chief of the security in Gaza, and Abbas (ph) who is apparently close to her and closer to Arafat as well to go and brief the leadership.

Those who are going back, are Mahmoud Abbas, the former prime minister. And he's highly respected among the Palestinians, does not have power base, however. Ahmed Qorei, the current prime minister. Who's also close to the Jordanians, and also he's the man who midwifed Oslo.

So all these people are going there, and also Farouk Kaddoumi is the candidate of Syria. So there is actually something, some semblance of really trying to put together a team that appeals for everybody.

LIN: All right. Teamwork among the Palestinians. How likely is it to remain teamwork? How likely is it that there's going to be civil war before new leadership arises?

FANDY: We have a big unknown here in this whole equation, And this is what Ahmed Qorei wanted to do when he went to Gaza yesterday to talk to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. And these are the people with the guns on the ground and with the following. And if they cannot manage to get Hamas onboard, and other Islamists in the territory, then you are looking at the worst case scenario where chaos might be the replacement for Arafat.

LIN: All right. We shall see what happens. Mamoun, always good to have you. Thank you.

FANDY: Thank you, Carol.

LIN: Straight ahead tonight, President Bush calls him an architect. And others say he is a political genius. So, will the president's chief political mastermind actually shape policy in the second term?

Plus, looking for bin Laden. Tonight, I've got a rare interview with a bin Laden scholar on how Osama can be caught.

And there are the Bush fans who don't like to brag. Conservatives living in a Democratic blue state, keep quiet about their glee.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Five days after the election, and the focus is on the man who helped win it for President Bush. Karl Rove knew which voters to go after, and what the hot button issues that would drive them to the polls would be for Mr. Bush. Now, CNN's Elaine Quijano reports he might even have a bigger role in the second term, Elaine?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Perhaps not bigger, but equally as influential, Carol. Karl Rove, as we all know, enjoys a prime spot at the decision-making table, a direct link into the Oval Office. And those who know Mr. Rove say that it's very likely his influence will continue to be felt well into the president's second term.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO (voice-over): His official title is senior adviser to the president. But the commander in chief calls him...

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The architect, Karl Rove.

QUIJANO: As the architect Karl Rove drew up the plans to reach out to rural and conservative voters, bringing them to the polls in big numbers and leading President Bush to victory. Republicans give Rove high praise.

KEN DUBERSTEIN, FRM. REAGAN W.H. CHIEF OF STAFF: Somebody who is incredibly strategic, who is insightful, who is thoughtful, somebody who is a keen student of history, and somebody who clearly has the president's total confidence.

QUIJANO: And even some Democrats give him high marks.

DONNA BRAZILE, FRM. GORE CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Karl Rove is the master of the game.

QUIJANO: Fellow political strategist Donna Brazile was campaign manager for the Gore/Lieberman ticket. She says while other political operatives kept forging after the 2000 race, Rove took time out to study what happened.

BRAZILE: He called together all his top advisers and he looked at the results and decided that it was important that in the future elections, the president not only energize and mobilize the base, but grow his base.

QUIJANO: A strategy that worked, in large part by focusing GOP efforts on so-called excerpts, growing new communities that lie just beyond older suburbs.

Now, less than a week after garnering his second presidential win, Rove is talking policy, not campaign strategy. The president's top political adviser says Mr. Bush will move ahead to push for a federal amendment banning gay marriage.

ROVE: Without the protection of that amendment, we are at the mercy of activist federal judges, or activist state judges.

QUIJANO: And while Rove says, while the president has an obligation to keep campaign promises, when it comes to appointing judges...

ROVE: The judges are to be impartial umpires, not activists, not legislators who happen to be wearing robes, but to be impartial umpries who strictly interpret the constitution and apply it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO: Now also on the list of the president's priorities, Social Security reform, tort reform and simplifying the tax code. And Karl Rove says on all of those agenda items, the president plans to reach out to Democrats, to explain the basis for his decisions, and to try to find some common ground -- Carol.

LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Elaine.

So now I'm going to take a look at who is actually going to stay and who will go in the second Bush administration. Some of these current members might be leaving. Paul Light is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He joins me right now. Paul, thank you very much for being here.

PAUL LIGHT, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Nice to be here.

LIN: Interesting to hear Elaine Quijano's report on Karl Rove. I mean, strategy is one thing, do you think he will take up any of the administration positions?

LIGHT: Oh, I don't think so.

LIN: You don't think so? Karl Rove, chief justice on the Supreme Court, unlikely?

LIGHT: That is beyond belief.

LIN: OK. Fair enough.

LIGHT: It's quite unusual to see him even coming out to appear on a news program, actually. That's a sign that we're in the second term for sure.

LIN: You're right. Shortly before election night, we saw him in a halloween costume as a hunting guard carrying an orange pumpkin, making a statement there.

All right. Let's talk about more of the realistic scenario. Donald Rumsfeld, do expect that he's going to stay on as secretary of defense?

LIGHT; I think he would like to stay on. I mean, he's in the middle of a significant defense transformation. He's working hard to realign the department. He understands, I'm sure, that it takes time to accomplish the kind of change that he's pursuing. I don't have any special insight, or I don't have any special news on him. But I think if he wants to stay, I think that's his call.

LIN: No secret, though, that John Ashcroft may want to leave his position at the Justice Department?

LIGHT: Good-bye, John Ashcroft. He's gone. It's a question of timing. I just don't think that there's any scenario under which he stays.

LIN: Is it likely that he might be nominated to a U.S. Supreme Court position if one opens up?

LIGHT: I think he should be looking back to where he'll live in Missouri or here in Washington. I can't imagine that he would be nominated for the Supreme Court.

He's much too much of a polarizing figure at this point. Maybe with time, maybe with a little bit of distance, he might return in some way, shape or form. But no, I don't think that he's a candidate for senior nomination like that.

LIN: Does anybody expect that Colin Powell would even considering staying, as secretary of state?

LIGHT: I certainly haven't heard anything to that effect. You know, he may be doing some thinking about what he'd like to do in 2008. People don't talk about him as a presidential candidate at this point, but there's going to be a very significant battle over the future of the Republican Party and it's going to begin in a matter of months rather than years. So Colin Powell may yet surprise everybody and decide to reenter the political fray.

LIN: Really? That would be interesting, given his disdain for inside the Beltway politics. And frankly, the outcome so far of the Iraq war.

LIGHT: Well, he would be a formidable presence in the campaign. And if he decides to run, he would advance to the top of the pack rather quickly.

But in the past, he has said that he doesn't want to do this. It's too difficult. But I wouldn't be surprised if he took some time for reflection on a possible bid.

LIN: All right. Thank you very much. Paul Light.

LIGHT: Very welcome.

LIN: We'll see what happens.

Up next, a battle with a broadcast network. The programming seen by millions of Arabs living around the world in their living rooms, is it merely anti-American propaganda?

And later, closing in on al Qaeda. The clues in the bin Laden tape. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Every day, world news is dominated by events in Iraq and the Middle East, but when people in that part of the world tune in, do they get an accurate picture of events? CNN's Brian Todd looks at one particular media outlet, and its very controversial message.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In a region long since overtaken by the explosion of satellite TV and 24-hour programming, where criticism of the U.S. or Israel can be found with virtually any click, one network has some observers and governments doing a double-take.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Almanar makes al Jazeera look like a Girl Scout cookie infomercial.

TODD: Almanar, Arabic for the Beacon, has become a guiding light for critics, who accuse the station of being the propaganda arm of the militant Shiite group, Hezbollah.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The station is looking to inspire what we call in the West quote unquote, suicide attacks and what they call martyrdom operations. They very open about the fact that they support, rhetorically, these attacks against the American soldiers and against Israelis.

TODD: A charge flatly denied by the network. Still, there's concern, reinforced by images of a skeletal statue of liberty dripping blood. Or of Hitler and his forces juxtaposed with President Bush and his.

A top official at Almanar admits philosophical agreements with Hezbollah, but denies that the network takes its marching orders from the group.

We asked him how his station views the United states.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: George W. Bush says that he's a friend of -- of the peace and he's a peaceful man. So, I mean, this is -- this is distorting the realities and the facts. But we have never broadcast anything to incite hatred.

TODD: But many still want the U.S. to crack down on Al-Manar for its ties to Hezbollah, which despite its status as a legitimate political party in Lebanon, has long been designated as a terrorist organization by the State Department.

ADAM ERELI, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: I would say Al-Manar Television and its relationship with Hezbollah is something that we -- we note and follow carefully. But I leave it at that.

TODD: What U.S. officials can, will or should do with Al-Manar is up for debate.

OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SR. EDITOR FOR ARAB AFFAIRS: If you decide to go after Al-Manar, does that mean you'll go after every single station that disseminates messages that you do not agree with?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: The French government has come under pressure to shut down Al-Manar's signal there, but the network can still be seen elsewhere in Europe and on some American cable systems -- Carol.

LIN: All right. Thanks very much, Brian, with that.

Here is also the latest situation in Falluja, which we're keeping our eye on right now. U.S. and Iraqi troops are awaiting orders to attack the rebel-held stronghold after receiving pep talks from their commanding officers. Now, Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says the time for talking is over. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AYAD ALLAWI, IRAQI INTERIM PRIME MINISTER: Absolutely, we can't wait indefinitely. And we have made our case (ph) very clear.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: Well, Prime Minister Allawi has declared a state of emergency in Iraq.

Although it is one of America's allies, Saudi Arabia is still a breeding ground for terrorists. So up next tonight, a sneak peek at a "CNN PRESENTS" special: "Kingdom On The Brink" with Nic Robertson.

Also, in the eye of the storm, new parents learn their newborn daughter has a life-threatening heart defect, and the timing could not have been worse.

And later, seeking refuge. After today's -- or, actually, Tuesday's election, many Americans are now looking north to escape.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: This just in. While we wait for the major assault on the city of Falluja in Iraq, we have learned that Iraqi special forces have taken control of the main hospital in Falluja, taken control without firing a single shot. This video just in to the CNN Center.

This marks the start of what we expect will be a major offensive to retake that city back from insurgents. Important to get control of this hospital, because it has been a foundation or grounds for the insurgents' anti-war propaganda.

In the past, hospital officials have said that innocent civilians were being killed in the assault on Falluja. That, apparently, the military not thinking to be true.

In the meantime, in other parts of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and the home to two of its holiest sites. It is a staunch U.S. ally, but also a breeding ground for terrorists, most notably Osama bin Laden. Now, as we hear from CNN senior international correspondent, Nic Robertson, Saudi Arabia has become a kingdom in crisis.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK, this is Suwaidi Street.

ROBERTSON (voice-over): And this is Abdullah Al-Otabi (ph). He's taking me and my cameraman to Suwaidi, one of the capital's poorest districts.

(on camera): They arrested you here?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. ROBERTSON (voice-over): That was more than 10 years ago. He was a radical jihadi and went to jail for his beliefs. Today he says he's reformed, but not Suwaidi.

(on camera): It's become over the years a recruiting ground for al Qaeda. And government officials here say it's not safe for us to get out of the car.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You see McDonald's?

ROBERTSON (on camera): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: McDonald's in Suwaidi.

ROBERTSON (voice-over): The drive is a surreal and chilling experience.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: BBC killed here.

ROBERTSON: The month before, journalist Simon Cumbers, a close friend of mine, was shot dead while filming for the BBC. Local jihadis were blamed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They hit American and hit the British.

ROBERTSON: The simple understanding in Suwaidi, westerners are not welcome.

From an office across town, Abdullah's working to undermine the extremists. But it's not been easy. Government clerics got him banned from writing for months, for saying their religious teachings helped breed terrorism.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): It is one of the first articles that directly say that we have flaws in the locally preached religious message.

ROBERTSON: A message that in Suwaidi spawned a now dead al Qaeda leader, Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin. Muqrin rose to prominence through a spate of violence attacks beginning with the Muhaya (ph) compound in November 2003. He's best known in the west for his brutal beheading of U.S. engineer Paul Johnson.

To Abdullah, Muqrin was an angry man, propelled towards terrorism by the same radical interpretation of the Koran that religious teachers use to ensnare him. It was a message that was everywhere in Suwaidi, not just the mosque.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Now you can see Nic Robertson's look inside Saudi Arabia, the growing threat from al Qaeda and the stability of the ruling family. "Kingdom On The Brink: The Battle For Saudi Arabia" premiers at 8:00 Eastern, 5:00 Pacific, right here on CNN.

Well, as we saw in the last few days of the presidential campaign, al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden are still out there. But this just in right now to the CNN Center. Fresh video out of Falluja as we wait for a major offensive to take place in that city. You are watching as Iraqi special forces are taking control of the main hospital in Falluja.

Now, this is supposed to mark the start of this major offensive into Falluja, as U.S. forces back up these Iraqi forces on the go- ahead from the Iraqi government to take back this city from insurgents. Important to take this hospital so that the doctors can treat any war casualties unimpeded, without any pressure from the insurgents to spout anti-American propaganda, like Americans are killing civilians, et cetera. More on this as we follow it and the story -- important story as it grows out of Falluja tonight.

In the meantime, I do want to talk about the latest on Osama bin Laden. You'll recall that that compelling videotape released the weekend before the U.S. elections of Osama bin Laden warning Americans that al Qaeda again.

Now, Rohan Gunaratna is the author of a book called "Inside al Qaeda." It is a rare opportunity to get him on camera for an interview on this subject.

Rohan, thank you very much for being with us.

ROHAN GUNARATNA, AUTHOR, "INSIDE AL QAEDA": Thank you.

LIN: When you took a look at that videotape, did you get a sense that Osama bin Laden cared who was elected president of the United States? And, if so, what do you think his reaction was when President Bush was reelected?

GUNARATNA: For Osama bin Laden, it really does not matter whether it was Kerry or Bush who was reelected. For him, his anger is against the United States and the U.S. foreign policy. In terms of who was elected, it really does not matter to him.

LIN: It doesn't? So having President Bush reelected, does it make an attack inside the United States more likely, less likely?

GUNARATNA: Al Qaeda will strike when it is operationally ready to strike. Al Qaeda will continue to build its capabilities inside the United States and attack the United States when it believes that it can succeed in its operation.

LIN: And at what operational stage -- do you have any indication what operational stage they may be at inside the United States?

GUNARATNA: Al Qaeda has attempted several operations inside the United States after 9/11. Most of those operations have been detected and disrupted, or they have been aborted.

LIN: Can you be more specific? What were they?

GUNARATNA: Well, there has been a number of operations that have been disrupted by the FBI and by enforcement agencies. But these have been mostly related to al Qaeda operatives being arrested inside the United States.

We also saw on the 3rd of August in Britain an al Qaeda cell that was disrupted. And they were in many ways developing targets to attack inside the United States. They included the Prudential Building, the Citigroup.

LIN: Right.

GUNARATNA: So in many ways, we are seeing that the threat against the United States, the threat to attack the United States has not diminished.

LIN: How is it that Osama bin Laden can freely make these videotapes, disseminate these videotapes and U.S. agents cannot catch this man?

GUNARATNA: It is because Osama is believed to be located on the Afghan-Pakistan border, an area where he enjoys significant support. An area where Pakistani forces do not have control over. The area where we call as the tribal zone.

LIN: Right. So what's it going to do to build intelligence in that area, which is completely wild and, frankly, anti-American?

GUNARATNA: It will require sustained efforts on the part of the Pakistani, Afghan, as well as the U.S. government, primarily to build human intelligence, high-grade, high-quality intelligence that will enable U.S. or Pakistani troops to precisely target the al Qaeda leadership that is still located in that area.

LIN: Rohan Gunaratna, I know the area that you're talking about is wild indeed. And that will take years and many blessings and much luck. Thank you very much. Rohan Gunaratna, author of inside al Qaeda.

Well, he's been told to pack his bags for Iraq. But this former soldier says he is not going. Find out how and why he's fighting back.

But up next, dealing with a crisis in a crisis. They were bracing for a hurricane, but this family ended up at a hospital instead. Their story coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Checking news "Across America" right now.

In Hawaii, a veteran of the first Persian Gulf War is suing the Army, which is ordering him to report to duty years after he was honorably discharged. The Army is involuntary activating thousands of soldiers to serve in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

And oh, Canada. Thousands of Americans may be thinking about moving north. They're that angry about President Bush being reelected. A record number of Americans are checking out the Canadian immigration Web site, looking for information. And in the Big Apple, a British woman and a south African man won the New York City marathon today. The women's race was a nail-biter. Paula Radcliffe crossed the finish line just four seconds before a Kenyan competitor.

Now, in Florida, many people hard hit by Hurricane Charley are still trying to piece their lives and their homes back together. Nearly three months after the storm, hundreds still do not have temporary housing. One politician estimates only half the people who need mobile homes and travel trailers actually have them, and many who don't are staying with family, friends or at motels.

And amid the destruction and dislocation, a story of hope and survival. A Florida family fled Hurricane Ivan only to discover it paled in comparison to their newborn's personal struggle. CNN senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta has the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Like many other families living on Florida's Panhandle, the Diloreto's were worried about the one, two, three punch of this year's hurricane season. But, Scott and Melanie were a little different. They had just given birth to Macey, only eleven days before Hurricane Ivan, the third major hurricane of the 2004 season was to hit Florida. And like other families, they made plans to evacuate.

MELANIE DILORETO, HURRICANE SURVIVOR: At the time, we hadn't been told that we had to leave when we decide to evacuate, but just because of having the new baby, we didn't want to take any chances.

GUPTA: So, Scott and Melanie drove to the closest place with an open hotel room, Montgomery, Alabama, but the damage from the storm would soon become the least of their worries.

SCOTT DILORETO, HURRICANE SURVIVOR: I turned to Melanie and said "This is worse than a nightmare," and I was trying to find a word that meant -- you know, what is -- what's the word that means worse than a nightmare, and her answer to me was, "our reality."

M. DILORETO: We got word Hurricane Ivan was going to head up to Montgomery on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, Macey stopped eating, I guess it was probably Thursday morning, she had stopped eating, started vomiting.

GUPTA: So, Scott and Melanie braved the winds and the rain and took her to the closest emergency room.

S. DILORETO: They did an echogram on her heart and it was -- it was operating at five percent of the normal.

GUPTA: Macey was born with a heart defect known as aortic corotation, where the main artery that supplies the body with blood can be almost completely blocked. But the hospital in Alabama had lost power and doctors felt that Macey's condition needed the attention of experts at Children's Health Care of Atlanta, the only way to get there in time, a helicopter.

S. DILORETO: The helicopter came over to pick up Melanie and Macey and I had to say goodbye to them while they flew over to Children's Hospital.

ANDY BURNHART, FLIGHT PARAMEDIC: We were able to make her heart work a little easier, just make her a little more comfortable for the ride back.

GUPTA: After she arrived in Atlanta at only three weeks old, Macey underwent open heart surgery to fix her condition. And the surgery was successful.

(on camera): Macey is doing well and returned to Texas with mom and grandma while Scott returned to Pensacola to see what he could reclaim from their hurricane damaged home.

M. DILORETO: Our perception is completely changed on what the devastation of what a hurricane can bring, just based on her condition being in the hospital, we didn't even have time to think about our house.

GUPTA (voice-over): Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Wow.

All right. Blue states on the edges, and the red ones in between. It's no understatement, we are a divided country. Straight ahead, tonight, what's life like for Bush supporters living in Democratic blue territory?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: People who voted for President Bush are savoring their election victory, except for some Bush fans in so-called blue states. The electoral map shows a sea of red surrounded by a handful of blue states that went for Kerry. Now, there's -- some Bush supporters are finding discretion may be the better part of victory. Let's find out from CNN's Alina Cho.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New York: bright lights, big city, full of Democrats who can't stand the thought of four more years...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am frightened.

CHO: ... of President Bush.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All my friends said, you know, "Let's head for Canada."

CHO (on camera): So in liberal Manhattan, where just 17 percent voted Republican, it's tough for the party faithful to celebrate, even though things are going their way for four more years.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I just feel like the annoying right-wing chick.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And I haven't called any of my Democrat friends since Election Day. I'm letting them all cool off.

CHO (voice-over): Good idea.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I saw fear in people's eyes. Someone told me they want to crawl in their bed and pull their head over their covers. And they were like serious.

CHO: May Hays (ph), Robert Hornack (ph) and Jen Tramitosi (ph) are members of New York's Young Republicans Club.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I can't stand hearing people say that Bush is an idiot.

CHO: They talked to us in the comfort of Jen's (ph) New York apartment, where "National Review" gets top billing in the magazine basket, where they can't be told by Democrats they're out of their minds.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't want them to get hostile with me. You know, they'll just scream at you, or they'll just walk away from you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One of my friends ate a chocolate cake by herself she was so sad. I wasn't going to turn around and tell her, "Well, guess what? Sorry, we also took more seats in Congress."

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Flip the table. Say if Kerry won, people would be rubbing it in our face, guaranteed.

CHO: Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch, a lifelong Democrat who himself took heat for supporting the president, said New York Republicans should stand up proudly and cheer.

ED KOCH (D), FMR. NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: You won. Put your hands up and say, "I won."

CHO: Meg Hayes (ph) says no way.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's like cheering for the Red Sox in New York. I mean...

CHO: Alina Cho, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Good point.

Now we want to update the situation in Falluja, which is going to be a breaking story throughout the night. Artillery fire has been lighting up the night sky as U.S. and Iraqi forces await orders for a full-scale attack on the rebel-held stronghold.

These pictures just in show Iraqi commandos taking control of the main hospital in Falluja. Pool reporters say they met little resistance. American commanders have told their troops the moment of truth is fast approaching.

Stay with CNN as troops do begin the battle for Falluja. CNN's Karl Penhaul and Jane Arraf are with the troops, and they're going to join us as soon as those troops move in. And I will break into programming tonight as events warrant.

That's all the time we have for this particular hour. But coming up next on "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS," Tom Hanks and Rod Stewart.

And at 8:00 Eastern, "CNN PRESENTS, Kingdom On The Brink: The Battle For Saudi Arabia."

At 9:00, "LARRY KING WEEKEND." And tonight, Larry's guest is Celine Dion.

And, of course, I'm going to be back at 10:00 Eastern for CNN SUNDAY NIGHT. We're going to be following the developing situation in Falluja. And also, I'm going to have the hour's headlines when we come back. And then, of course, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS."

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