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American Morning

At Least 22 Killed in Blast Near Mosul

Aired December 21, 2004 - 9:01   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: The husband of a woman accused of killing for a baby now speaking out about the crime.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEVIN MONTGOMERY, SUSPECT'S HUSBAND: My heart ain't broke just for me and Lisa and her kids, it's them too. That was a precious baby.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: That baby now getting stronger. We'll hear from the hospital where she's recovering now.

A Christmas travel alert. Heavy snow expected, and it could make for a tough journey this week.

And the study on the painkiller Aleve, suspended before it was finished. An important warning for you ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

HEMMER: The commute's a brisk one this morning with the temperatures out there. Good morning, everybody. Nine o'clock in New York. Soledad is out today. Carol Costello here with us.

And good morning to you.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. And good morning to all of you.

HEMMER: Yes. Nice to have you along with us.

Much more coming up on that stolen baby matter. Part of the investigation now focusing on these e-mails between the victim and the suspect, as well as a Web site offering puppies for sale. We'll talk about the risks of meeting strangers online and what you can do to protect yourself in the event that you think you might be getting stalked or violated on the security side. We'll get to that.

COSTELLO: Such a bizarre story. You know, we're going to go outside on this AMERICAN MORNING just because, well, we want to show you how you can more effectively drive when there's about three feet of snow on the roadways. There's the car we're going to be practicing in. It's pretty darn nice, isn't it?

HEMMER: It's a great-looking car, yes. Who's going outside, by the way?

COSTELLO: I think I am.

HEMMER: Raise your hand.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: By the way, they just called from Atlanta. They want to know if you can do Paula's show, Larry King and Anderson Cooper tonight. They said they're a little short, people off for the Christmas holidays. You don't mind, do you?

COSTELLO: Oh, no. Just need a little nap. A little nappy.

HEMMER: Push on through.

CAFFERTY: Is America slowly losing Christmas to political correctness? Is it OK to wish somebody "Merry Christmas," or should you say "Happy Holidays" so as not to offend their religious sensibilities?

That would be the QOD. AM@CNN.com. We'll read some e-mails. Getting a lot of mail. This is a very touchy hot-button issue.

HEMMER: And timely.

CAFFERTY: And we also got an e-mail I'm going to share with you later about -- about these cheesy coffee cups you're given away on the morning program.

HEMMER: Oh, cool.

COSTELLO: My poor little show.

HEMMER: Just stir the pot.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: You pick on those coffee cups almost every day.

CAFFERTY: Our viewers got a suggestion. It's not a bad idea, actually. I'll read them to you later.

HEMMER: OK. Looking forward to that.

COSTELLO: Oh no.

WALLACE: All right.

HEMMER: Here's Kelly Wallace with the news now.

Good morning.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning again. Good morning again, everyone.

"Now in the News," about an hour ago, word that a U.S. military base in northern Iraq has come under attack. We go live now to Baghdad, where CNN's Karl Penhaul is. Karl, we know the U.S. military is saying the blast caused multiple casualties. What can you tell us?

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Correct, Kelly. That's what the U.S. military has said in a statement.

This explosion took place at a military base in the northern city of Mosul. That's where U.S. forces have been staging another offensive against insurgents over recent weeks.

No more details exactly about the precise circumstances of that blast. We do know that it went off at about midday local time. That would have been about five hours ago.

Now, the U.S. military has said there are multiple casualties but haven't given us a breakdown of possible dead or wounded. They also haven't stipulated whether these are all military casualties or whether there may be civilians amongst them. Typically, in a lot of these bases there would be not only military personnel, but civilian personnel as well -- Kelly.

WALLACE: All right, Karl. Karl Penhaul monitoring developments for us in Baghdad. Again, word a U.S. military base in Mosul coming under attack. Word that there are "multiple casualties." More as we get it here on AMERICAN MORNING.

Here in the United States, another warning about a popular over- the-counter drug. The FDA saying the pain reliever Naproxen, also known as Aleve, has been found to increase risk of heart attacks and strokes in users. The warning comes just days after a similar caution about the arthritis drug Celebrex.

Still no clues today about the whereabouts of a 9-year-old boy in northern Pennsylvania. But we may hear a statement from his family sometime this morning. Logan Mitcheltree is autistic and cannot speak. He was last seen by his family on Saturday. Searchers are out again today scouring the area, but the frigid weather has hampered those efforts.

And finally, we just learned about two hours ago when "Harry Potter" fans can get their hands on the next book in the boy wizard series. Publisher's announcing a July 16 release date for author JK Rowling's sixth book. The author says, though, one of her characters is not going to survive in the newest installment.

Which character will that be? Well, you have to get the book and read it to find out. The book called "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" again coming out this summer.

COSTELLO: Bill's not getting the importance of this issue about the book.

HEMMER: I get it. I just -- we've done it like five times in two hours now.

COSTELLO: She said the release date. That's when people can buy it.

HEMMER: Yes.

WALLACE: Lots of "Harry Potter" fans out there, as you know. We will be counting the days until that book comes out.

HEMMER: Thank you, Kelly. Oh, by the way, happy birthday.

WALLACE: Oh, right, right. This just in. Thank you so much.

HEMMER: See you later.

About six minutes now past the hour. Thanks, Kelly. You've been a good sport.

Want to get back to this story. Funeral services held today for the Missouri woman whose baby was cut from her womb. Twenty-three- year-old Bobbie Jo Stinnett was killed in her home in Skidmore, Missouri, last Thursday.

Lisa Montgomery, the woman charged in the death, is due back in court Thursday. Her husband talked outside the courthouse yesterday about the matter.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MONTGOMERY: Victoria Jo got a rough road to go. Just -- I know you all got a job, but please respect some of our privacy. It's tough for all of us right now.

I know you all got a job, but it is mighty tough for all of us. I might talk to some more people later, but right now that's all I can do. My heart ain't broke just for me and Lisa and her kids, it's them too. That was a precious baby. I know.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: The baby, Victoria Jo Stinnett, has now been released from the health center in Topeka, Kansas. Earlier today I talked with Carol Wheeler. Carol Wheeler is vice president of Stormont-Vail Healthcare. I talked to her about the baby's condition.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAROL WHEELER, V.P., STORMONT-VAIL HEALTHCARE: She was in remarkably good condition, given all that she's been through. We really don't feel that she's going to need any particular extra care at this point in time.

HEMMER: And what was the condition of the baby when she arrived?

WHEELER: When she arrived, she was also in very good condition, which was a little bit surprising to us, in that normally infants born one month prematurely would have been in an intensive care setting and being observed by medical professionals. Of course, that didn't happen with this baby for the first 24 hours. But clearly, she was a very healthy fetus, and had done really quite well during that first 24 hours.

HEMMER: Even though she was premature, no additional complications then, is that right, Carol?

WHEELER: That's correct. And we don't expect her to have any.

HEMMER: The pastor described the baby as beautiful. He held her for a period of about 15 minutes on last Friday, at the end of last week. He also described a bruise on her hand and a scratch on her head. Were you aware of these possible injuries, and if so, were they significant to any to degree?

WHEELER: You know, I don't believe they were. I don't recall that. The neonatologist certainly didn't speak about those as being anything at all to be concerned about?

HEMMER: How has it been around the hospital with this story and this baby coming to you in the way she did?

WHEELER: Well, as you can imagine, it's consumed a lot of our time, a lot of media interest, which we can certainly understand.

We, however, treat premature infants everyday in this hospital. Our neonatal intensive care unit, at any given day, will have 25, 26 babies in it. And this baby was not treated in any way differently than any of our other patients would have been treated. Our nurses and our neonatologists are just dedicated to the care of these patients and to their families.

HEMMER: You mentioned the families. Can you tell us how they're doing, Carol?

WHEELER: When I spoke with them over the last couple of days, I was touched by how well they were doing. As you can imagine, Bill, the emotions have run the gamut for them. First of all, the joy at the birth of this baby and being reunited with her, then tempered somewhat, of course, by the grief they're experience at the tragic loss of Victoria Jo's mother. But they're doing well, I think, given the circumstances.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HEMMER: Again, Carol Wheeler. She's vice president of the Stormont-Vail Regional Health Center, earlier today in Topeka, Kansas.

Lisa Montgomery and Bobbie Jo Stinnett met online. How can you then protect yourself from dangerous people on the Internet? Our safety expert, Bob Stuber, is in Orange, California, back with us here on AMERICAN MORNING.

It's good to have you back, Bob, too. And good morning to you out there.

BOB STUBER, SAFETY.COM: Thank you, Bill.

HEMMER: If you think someone's stalking you online, what can you do?

STUBER: You know, that's -- that's really the million-dollar question. You have to have a very short tolerance here. And you have to define stalking as anybody that goes from the cyber world into your real world.

So if they show up, whether it's they've written you a letter, they have phone calls, anything where now you know they know where you live, you have to get active and you have to do it quick. And here's the good news. Most local law enforcement agencies, even in small towns now, have either a division or an officer that handles cyber crimes. And they can get on this very, very quickly.

But you have to move fast. That's the key, is moving very fast.

HEMMER: Bob, it's my judgment that many of us give private information online. But it's also my judgment that very few of us have been burned. Is that your judgment as well?

STUBER: Well, in a case like this, that's true. This kind of situation. But when it comes to a -- the larger crime, which is identity theft, it's one of the fastest-growing crimes in the nation right now.

So it's getting larger and larger all the time. A lot of people, millions of people, have been burned because of things that have happened online. But not to the extent of this kind of crime.

HEMMER: Yes. So then, if I'm operating online, I've got a bank account online, I'm doing financial work online, stuff that I want to consider private and keep it to myself, how different is that from perhaps yourself, if you have a business online? And is there a difference?

STUBER: No, there's really not. That's a great question, Bill.

There's really not a difference, because the type of person, the type of criminal that has really learned to use the Internet, they don't care if it's banking, or if you're trying to sell puppies, or whatever you're doing. They know how to access you online and counter you, and then get the type of information they need to invade your world.

By the time that they show up in your world, whether it's a phone call or whatever, they probably already have your Social Security number, credit information, medical information. And we as a society have been selling that information on each other for years.

HEMMER: Yes. What about online auctions? There's a lot of information that goes out over that.

And can you protect yourself, number one? Or do we fall back to your answer, where it says if somebody wants to commit this crime, they can get to it? It's just a question of when and how.

STUBER: It falls back to, if they want to get you, they're going to get you. Because we have not kept up to date with the type of protections and the laws and the different things we need.

So whether you're doing eBay work, you're at an auction, no matter what you're doing, if you're online, you have to remember, you're out there in a world that can become real. And when it becomes real, it can enter into your world, and there can be some serious crimes committed.

HEMMER: I think the advice you gave at the outset was the best, keep track of it and act fast if you think you're being violated.

STUBER: Very fast.

HEMMER: Thank you, Bob. Bob Stuber out in Orange, California.

STUBER: Thank you.

HEMMER: Always good to talk to you.

STUBER: You too.

HEMMER: Want to go outside right now. I think Carol drew the short straw.

Hey, Carol. How is it?

COSTELLO: Yes, how is it I drew the short straw? I don't get that. Oh, I have to talk into this microphone because the wind is blowing so hard.

Let's head live to Atlanta and check with Chad to find out exactly what the temperature is.

Guess what I'm going to talk about out here, Chad?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: The reason why you moved to New York City?

COSTELLO: Because of the balmy, beautiful weather?

MYERS: Yes.

COSTELLO: No. No, actually I'm going to talk about how you can drive in the snow safely since we're expecting that big storm tomorrow.

MYERS: Well, you may need that. New York City, though, in much better shape than, let's say, the Midwest, Carol.

(WEATHER REPORT)

MYERS: Carol, you may need that advice that you're going to get from my friend Gene Jennings (ph), actually.

COSTELLO: Yes. Gene (ph) mentioned -- congratulations on the baby grand (ph) she says. So well wishes to you. We're going to show you how to drive this baby, this nice Chrysler, looking really clean. I wonder how that happened.

But anyway, Bill, Bill Hemmer, we're going to show people how to drive safely in the snow and the sleet, and if pumping your brakes really work.

HEMMER: Looking forward to it. Thank you, Carol. Talk to you in a moment out there.

Also, the president laying out his agenda for 2005. What are his priorities? A live update from the White House on that.

Howard Stern made headlines in 2004 by announcing a switch to satellite radio. But the man going with him could help make an even bigger impact. We'll have a look at that as we continue in a moment after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Welcome back. Now getting more details about what happened in Mosul earlier today. In fact, about five hours ago, and the details are not good.

Twenty-two dead now at a U.S. military base, 51 others are injured. The information we have is this: multiple rounds, rocket rounds, fired into a ding hall at a U.S. military base here in Mosul.

We are told there are U.S. casualties. There are National Guard casualties on the Iraqi side. There are Iraqi civilians in the casualty list as well.

Again, all this happening at 4:00 a.m. Eastern Time, which would have been about noon local time in northern Iraq, about five hours ago. And Pentagon sources filling us in with more information.

Elaine Quijano is at her Pentagon position there.

And Elaine, what more can you add?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, not a whole lot. Those are pretty much all the details that we know right now.

As you said, Pentagon officials now confirming that around 4:00 a.m. Eastern Time, as you mentioned, an unknown number of explosive rounds did hit a dining hall. Now, we're told that this was close to Mosul, not necessarily in Mosul itself, at the forward operating base called Mared (ph).

As you said, 22 people, reports that 22 people were killed and 51 wounded. As you mentioned also, this was apparently a mixture of not only U.S. troops but Iraqi National Guard members and some civilian contractors as well. Although we don't have a breakdown on exact numbers at this point.

But again, Pentagon officials confirming reports now 22 people dead, 51 wounded. An unknown number of explosive rounds hitting a dining hall near Mosul -- Bill. HEMMER: I want to try and shake down some more details if I could. I know this is not your normal post at the Pentagon here, so if I'm going into areas where you don't know, pull me back here.

Let me try a few things here, though. Do we know the presence for the U.S. military in that part of Iraq, in and around the area of Mosul?

QUIJANO: Well, we know that the U.S. Army in that particular area, Task Force Olympia, is tapped with obviously keeping that area secure. As far as exact numbers, just not sure at the time on what we're talking about in terms of the U.S. presence in that area.

But obviously this coming on the heels of President Bush saying yesterday that bombers are having an effect. Undoubtedly now it's a critical time in that area in Iraq, especially now that Falluja has been cleared out, much has been made of whether or not Mosul might be another problematic area for the U.S., for the coalition forces there.

Now we're seeing evidence, obviously more violence. President Bush saying yesterday that in the run-up to the elections he does expect more violence. It appears we're seeing that now -- Bill.

HEMMER: And also the headline from a couple hours ago, Elaine, as you well know. Tony Blair making a surprise visit to Baghdad earlier today, arriving there and showing support. And holding a joint press conference with Ayad Allawi, the man that many believe could do quite well from this point until the end of January, which is when elections are scheduled now on the 30th of January.

But back to the issue in Mosul, one has to wonder what the dining hall for the U.S. military, Iraqi National Guard and civilians working there, how close these attacks took place to that military base and how they could get so close in order to launch an attack as brazen as this, Elaine?

QUIJANO: Well, certainly, that's one thing authorities obviously are going to be looking at. And we just don't have the details on the layout and exactly where the insurgents may have launched a particular attack, or whomever it was that was responsible for the attack.

But undoubtedly, as I said, with this being such a critical time, the U.S. well aware. And officials here certainly at the Pentagon well aware that there is an increased push, perhaps, to try and disrupt elections.

Now, as I mentioned, Mosul is an area particularly where there has been some concern, perhaps, perhaps now that the Falluja area has been essentially cleaned out, as best as possible. That perhaps there could be a movement towards Mosul, an area maybe where insurgents may regroup.

But at this particular point, Bill, those are certainly some of the questions they'll be looking at, exactly where this dining hall is positioned, how close these insurgents, or whomever these attackers may be, are getting to these U.S. military personnel. HEMMER: Elaine, stand by at the Pentagon. Want to get straight away to Baghdad right now, Karl Penhaul.

This is what we know at this point, Karl. And I want you to go ahead and fill in other blanks as way get them.: 22 dead, 51 injured. All happening at a dining hall at a U.S. military base in Mosul. What more can you add from your perspective there in the Iraqi capital?

PENHAUL: Well, certainly what we understand from our sources is that those dead and injured are a mixture not only of U.S. military personnel, but also members of Iraq's National Guard, who share part of this compound with the U.S. military. And also some civilians.

That could be a mixture of U.S. civilian contractors, as well as third-party nationals who also work typically in the dining facilities across the U.S. bases across Iraq. There will be a mixture of Filipinos and Indians, Bangladeshis, people from third countries who come in and help.

Now, as far as how far away the insurgents would need to have been to rain either mortars or rockets down on this base, at this point it isn't clear whether this was a rocket attack or whether it was a mortar attack. But depending on the caliber of those artillery rounds, this attack could have come from anything between 10 and 15 miles away.

All that would point, if it did come from that far away, that the insurgents would need to have some very good sighting system. It would need to have people fairly far forward so that they could check on the accuracy of the first rounds, and then possibly adjust their firing tubes after that to make sure that further rounds did hit on target.

But certainly, from what we do hear from our sources, this was a multiple attack. So multiple artillery rounds, either rockets or mortars, falling on that dining facility.

What we do also know as well is that about two, three weeks ago, we had a CNN team up in Mosul following part of the defensive that was going on there against the insurgents. Again, the insurgents had taken root in parts of the city and were fighting running street battles with the U.S. military there.

Obviously the offensive failed to clear those out fully from there. But what we do know is, at that time, on one of the camps in Mosul, Camp Mores (ph), that certainly U.S. commanders there had expressed concern about the dining facility because it is a soft building. These aren't hardened buildings that can withstand these kind of attacks. And in the words of one commander to one of our team that was up there, he expressed doubts about the dining facility safety and said it could be only a matter of time before this type of attack occurred.

HEMMER: Quickly, Karl, was Mosul in the calm category or just the calmer category as compared to the central part of Iraq? PENHAUL: No, Mosul wasn't in a calm category at all, really, because once we saw the Falluja offensive kick off in -- at the end of the first week in November, we also saw a displacement of a lot of the violence up towards Mosul. There were, as I say, running street battles there between insurgents and U.S. military. At one point, the insurgents managed to take most of the police stations in Mosul and drive the police away.

There were thoughts that the police officers there were actually collaborating with the insurgents at one point. There was also a suspicion as well that part of the Abu Musab al--Zarqawi network had transferred to Mosul at some stage.

So, although it's about 220, 230 miles north of Baghdad, it certainly is not a calm city. This has been the scene of repeated insurgent violence.

HEMMER: Karl Penhaul in Baghdad there again. The details as we have them now, 22 dead, 51 injured. Multiple rocket rounds fired into a U.S. dining hall at a U.S. military base in northern Iraq in the town of Mosul.

All this information coming through Pentagon sources. We'll continue to work this story here.

More now with Carol on this.

COSTELLO: Yes, we had Major -- Major General Don Sheppard on the line, our military analyst.

Good morning.

MAJ. GEN. DONALD SHEPPARD, U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): Hi. Good morning.

COSTELLO: That this explosion occurred at a U.S. military base, what does that tell you? General Don Sheppard, can you hear me?

SHEPPARD: I'm sorry, you faded out there. I've been listening to your comments, however.

COSTELLO: OK. I want to ask you again, that this explosion occurred at a U.S. base in Mosul, what does that tell you?

SHEPPARD: Yes, well, I tell you, Mosul has been calmer than the southern part of the country. However, lately we've seen an upsurge in attacks.

Some of this is due to probably to insurgents that are out of Falluja. But also the troops in many of the areas are in softer-type quarters, tents, this type of thing, and buildings that are not fortified like they are in the Green Zone. So when these type of attacks occur, the troops are much more vulnerable up there in the northern part of the country, where it's been much calmer than down south. COSTELLO: But still, General, isn't it disturbing that the insurgents are getting closer to U.S. military bases and launching effective attacks on them?

SHEPPARD: Well, not necessarily. Because in Mosul, as I say, it's been calmer. And you don't have the large area cleared in Mosul like you do in the Green Zone down south.

It's not -- it's not everywhere that you have, you know, a very wide area where people can't get close to your troops. And so in many areas of the country, not just in Mosul, but in other areas of the country, the insurgents can get up much closer.

Earlier reports were that this was a rocket attack. Somehow I doubt it, unless it was just a lucky -- a lucky hit, because rockets are notoriously inaccurate.

COSTELLO: Well, you know, U.S. troops cleared out of -- cleared out Falluja of insurgents. Some say these insurgents have moved on to Mosul. Is there any real evidence of that from your perspective?

SHEPPARD: Oh, I think it's undoubtedly true that some of the insurgents from Falluja are up in the Mosul area. But I think it's way too early to speculate that this is any type of attack as a result of what happened in Falluja.

It's just that Falluja was such a nest of these insurgents that they -- that there were a lot of them there, and they moved all over the country. So it's not just Mosul. But again, Mosul has been calm enough that they could move up there and have a lot more freedom than they could in other parts of the country.

COSTELLO: And again, you know, you always have to ask the question when these things happen. You know, the U.S. military has made so many arrests. They've confiscated so many weapons, so many explosives. And yet these things continue to occur. You have to wonder just how much stuff is out there.

SHEPPARD: Well, from my visit over there, you cannot believe the amount of arms and explosives still in that country. The entire country was an explosives dump. It would take years and years and years under ideal, calm conditions to clear it.

They will never run short of money, and they will never run short of arms. It's just going to be a very long trek until -- until not only we, but also the Iraqi military is able to establish control across that country. And they'll never run short of arms and explosive devices.

COSTELLO: And I guess it's safe to say that the violence will only continue to escalate as the elections approach?

SHEPPARD: I think they're going to attempt to escalate as the elections approach. And not only this election, but then you have another year to the following December, when the real election takes place. And so I think we can expect another year of this type of thing. It's going to be a very tough situation as long as we are there. And even after we leave.

COSTELLO: Did you listen to the president's peach yesterday, General?

SHEPPARD: I did.

COSTELLO: He said the insurgents were having an effect on the fighting there. How did you take those remarks?

SHEPPARD: Well, I thought it was from a matter-of-fact -- a matter-of-fact explanation of what all of us are seeing. This insurgency is not dying out. It's not being conquered. It's spreading in many areas.

The fact that Falluja was cleared out we said was not going to mean an end to the insurgency. But I think some people thought it was going to (UNINTELLIGIBLE). And indeed, the attacks did lessen for a short while in numbers after that. But now they're spreading to other areas. So I thought he was making just a matter-of-fact comment that all of us have seen.

Of course this having an effect. And it's not dying out.

COSTELLO: General Don Sheppard, thanks for joining AMERICAN MORNING this morning -- Bill.

HEMMER: 9:30 here in New York City. I want to welcome our international viewers here to CNN as we continue our coverage on what's happening in the town of Mosul in northern Iraq. An image is now shaping up here at a U.S. military base. At noon local time, at the height of lunch hour, at this U.S. military base where you have Iraqi national guard members gathered, Iraqi civilians intermixed with U.S. military personnel.

Multiple rounds were fired into a dining hall at the noon hour, happening about five and a half hours ago. The reports we have now, 22 dead, 51 others injured. As we get more information through our Pentagon sources, we'll pass it along to you. Want to bring in Ken Pollack now, an Iraqi analyst now with Saban Center, Brookings Institution by telephone.

And Ken, put together the image that we're now creating over the past three days. On Sunday, you have significant attacks against Shiite targets in the southern part of the country. And now this report in the northern part of Iraq aimed primarily at the U.S. military and the Iraqi national guard serving on that base.

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well certainly, Bill, the image that we're seeing is one that looks like a coordinated attack across the country. That may be deceptive. And it's important to keep in mind why it may be deceptive. It may simply be that you have local Iraqi insurgent groups launching attacks wherever they can. In some ways, that's worse news than if this is a coordinated nationwide campaign. If it's a coordinated nationwide campaign, that suggests there's a leadership somewhere, you can go out and attack that leadership. I think far more likely this is a completely decentralized insurgency. You have local groups simply mounting attacks whenever they can do so. That is much, harder for us to deal with.

HEMMER: And so in your judgment, Ken, just to be clear, you believe they're hitting targets where they can?

POLLACK: Correct.

HEMMER: As opposed to a connected strategy?

POLLACK: Exactly. This is classic guerrilla warfare. They're looking for targets of opportunity. They scope out a location, they reconnoiter a target. When they decide that they can do some damage, they go after it. And the problem is that there are enough insurgents with enough weapons and enough intelligence that they are able to hit us on a regular basis week in and week out all across the country.

HEMMER: On a political note, the British prime minister Tony Blair, in a surprise visit to Baghdad, held a joint press conference a few hours ago with the interim leader Ayad Allawi. What is the residence for a visit like this for the Iraqi people when they find people like Tony Blair stopping into their country to express his support for what's happening?

POLLACK: Well, it's hard to say, because obviously different Iraqis take it in different ways. In the Sunni community, which is largely alienated from the process of reconstruction, the reason that we've got this terrible problem with the insurgency, they see this as yet another imperialist power coming in to pay tribute to a Shia/Kurdish government. That's how they look at things.

For many other Iraqis, Shia and Kurds, they will look at it and say all right, this is one of the great powers again showing solidarity. They certainly want to know that the rest of the world is going to stick things out with them. But, honestly, the question that most Iraqis will ask is Mr. Blair, it's very nice to see you, but what are you going to do about our security situation? What are you going to do about our power, our water, about the other problems that we have?

HEMMER: We are a little more than five weeks away from the expected vote on January 30th, Ken. I'm interested to get to how you look at the way the story lines are now developing in Iraq. It appears quite clearly that the Shiites, no matter how many die between now and the end of January, they are going to wait for this vote and they will vote when the vote comes around.

If you go to the top of the leadership on the religious side, with Ali Sistani and the support he has given certain members of the political group now, going forward at the end of January, coupled with the fact that many are wondering now that the key in this election may not necessarily be on the Shiite side, but on the Sunni side. And I say that for this reason. How many Sunnis will vote at the end of January? Is that where the key lies now? In the short-term for the future of Iraq?

POLLACK: Well, I think that certainly gets at the heart of the issue. I wouldn't put it necessarily, though, as how many Sunnis will vote? I think the bigger question is does the Sunni tribal community, the folks who live in western Iraq and northern Iraq, where the basis for the insurgency, will they feel that the vote encompasses their political aspirations? That they can be part of this new political system? I am very dubious that they will.

All signs indicate that they see the election as nothing more than another American sponsored effort to put them into a subordinate status beneath the Shia and as a result, they are not going to see it as legitimate, they're not going to see it as including them. And as a result, I think that there's a very real likelihood that the election is going to have absolutely no impact on the insurgency.

HEMMER: Election scheduled for the end of January. They anticipate electing 275 members of a new Iraqi parliament at that time. And certainly -- Ken, as you point out there, so many things on the table still to be determined before that vote takes place. Ken, thanks. Ken Pollack by telephone there. The news we have, 22 dead, 51 injured at a U.S. military base, northern Iraq in the town of Mosul. More now with Carol on this.

COSTELLO: Obviously the U.S. military isn't saying much about this incident just yet. Let's head live to Baghdad to check in with Karl Penhaul to see what else we have found out. Something struck me, many of these deaths were Iraqi national guardsmen and Iraqi police. They've already had a problem with not many people wanting to join the Iraqi national guard. How will this affect it, Karl?

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, indeed this has been one of the strategies of the insurgents of late to target both the Iraqi security forces as well as the Iraqi police to try and dissuade ordinary Iraqis from joining those groups. Over the last few days -- last week, in fact, we did talk to an insurgent leader inside of Baghdad. He was the intelligence chief for the insurgency in Baghdad. And he said these types of attacks against Iraqi security forces, or even civilian Iraqis working with the Americans, would continue.

He said because they viewed these people as collaborating with the coalition forces and they still believe that Iraq is under occupation. They're casting this very much as a resistance fight by Iraqis against the occupiers and so that's why they're targeting Iraqi security forces. They think they're part of the problem...

COSTELLO: Karl, is...

PENHAUL: Specifically as far as Mosul is concerned, we do know that Mosul, as violence spiked there as the offensive in Falluja got under way and there was speculation by U.S. military sources at the time that some of the fighters from Falluja had simply melted away and headed north to Mosul. There was also speculation that part of the Abu Musab al Zarqawi terrorist network had also taken root in Mosul, Carol.

COSTELLO: Karl, is there any way to know how many Iraqi national guardsmen and police have died?

PENHAUL: Very difficult to keep tabs on this. And -- but we've seen even in the two months that I've been here now, we've seen attacks more or less every day, targeting Iraqi security forces in lesser or in greater numbers. The biggest attack was about a month ago now when more than 45 Iraqi soldiers were massacred in one site close to the Iranian border. But those are the kind of -- the big attacks.

But daily, daily, daily there are attacks on twos and threes. Sometimes simply an insurgent will put a bullet to the back of their heads as they're out on patrol in a city. Other times there will be these spectacular suicide car bomb attacks on police stations, but a daily occurrence.

COSTELLO: You know, the U.S. military is counting on the Iraqis to help them in the fight. Are Iraqis still joining the security forces?

PENHAUL: Talking to the U.S. military again last week, they did say that they haven't seen any problems with recruiting. And they do see that they do feel that they are on track to build up Iraqi security forces. They recognize that it has been slow and they also recognize that in the initial phases, some of their vetting procedures weren't up to scratch to get the best possible recruits.

Also today, if you look at Prime Minister Tony Blair's visit to Iraq, he also said that he believed that this was the right strategy to build up Iraqi security forces, and the sooner that they could be built up, the sooner coalition troops could get home. That said, independent analysts do believe that this process is very, very slow.

And they also point to certain firefights in the past, certain important battles in the past, where Iraqi security forces haven't stood and fought and have simply run away. One of the cases in point being Mosul last month, when insurgents did step up activities there and targeted police stations. Many of the police stations were easily overrun because the police simply ran away, Carol.

COSTELLO: You know, I'm just wondering, if you know, with so many Iraqis dying in the security forces, whether it's a question of improper training or is it just that you can't stop the insurgents' violence?

PENHAUL: The insurgent violence, because of the way it's structured will obviously be very difficult to deter. Because yes, we have seen the major set piece conventional-type offensives that we saw in Falluja. We saw one after that in the so-called triangle of death just south of Baghdad. We also saw another major offensive in Mosul itself.

But the problem is, this guerrilla war that the insurgents are fighting is a mobile hit and run war. One moment they might be targeting economic targets, such as sabotaging oil infrastructure, the next minute they might be taking on the U.S. military head-on. Other moments they might be driving suicide car bombs into the lines of potential recruits for the Iraqi police force.

Because there are -- because there are such a varied type of number of attacks, this is what makes it difficult to stop. And so far there has been no sign that this insurgent violence will abate. In fact, it seems to be rising rather than falling, Carol.

COSTELLO: You know, it's such a contrast with what happened earlier this morning when Tony Blair made the surprise visit. He held that joint news conference with the interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi. They were practically jovial at the end of that news conference.

PENHAUL: Well, certainly the fact that Prime Minister Blair flew in to the center of Baghdad to hold that press conference seemed to be an expression of confidence, because you'll remember that when President Bush flew in to Baghdad in thanksgiving 2003, he remained at Baghdad International Airport. He didn't venture into downtown Baghdad. This, again, the first visit by Prime Minister Blair to Baghdad. Before, he had visited British troops down in the southern city of Basra, which has remained much calmer than here in Baghdad.

Nevertheless, though, the fact that Prime Minister Blair had to fly from Baghdad International Airport in to downtown Baghdad is a reflection, really, of the dire security situation here, because that road between the international airport and downtown Baghdad, about a 10-mile stretch, has been declared now off limits to both British and U.S. diplomats, because it is the frequent target of suicide car bomb attacks. But yes, you're right, Prime Minister Blair and Prime Minister Allawi did seem very upbeat in that press conference, although Mr. Blair did recognize that the security situation is very grave, and that it will present challenges for the January 30th elections -- Carol.

COSTELLO: You know, Karl, it was interesting when a reporter asked Tony Blair how it felt, how the security situation felt as he flew in to his destination and he said well, you know, you could feel the danger, but he said that he thought the efforts in Iraq were working, and we just had to stay the course. What else did he have to say about the insurgents' violence in Iraq?

PENHAUL: Well, very much Mr. Blair cast this insurgent violence in black-and-white terms, very much as a battle between good and evil. In this words, he said that the current climate of violence was a battle between democracy and terror. And he said that that's why terrorism had to be defeated in Iraq, because that would help deal a blow to terrorism worldwide.

That said, the insurgency here in Iraq sees things in very much a different light. They see this as a resistance campaign by Iraqis against occupiers.

But Mr. Blair, (INAUDIBLE), one analyst describes that this was a mixture of rhetoric to the Western viewers to kind of express confidence that his Iraq policy is working, and also express confidence in these January 30th elections. On the ground, though, the situation is less optimistic than Mr. Blair appeared to paint. In fact, on Sunday we saw an example of that just about four blocks from where Mr. Blair and Mr. Allawi were speaking yesterday, where the scenes, those horrific scenes where we saw three senior election workers dragged from a vehicle and killed at pistol point by gunmen who saw no need to mask their faces. That insurgent group was operating just three or four blocks from where Mr. Blair was talking today. So it shows the level of impunity that these insurgents feel that they can operate with, both in the capital and across the rest of Iraq -- Carol.

COSTELLO: And, Karl, Tony Blair called those election workers heroes. Here's more of what he had to say about them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: People should understand how precious what is being created here is. And those people from that electoral commission that I described as the heroes of the new Iraq, every day a lot of them aren't living in the green zone. They've got to travel in from outside. They do not know at any point in time whether they're going to be subject to brutality or intimidation, even death, and yet they carry on doing it. Now, what a magnificent example of the human spirit, and that's the side we should be on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: It is a magnificent display.

Tell us, Karl, how many elections workers are there?

PENHAUL: There are about 9,000 altogether across the country, we understand. But they're broken down in very different capacities, because there is a core which is called the Independent Electoral Commission. But then there are regional delegates and local delegates, and those kind of radiate out into the neighborhoods of Baghdad, and radiate out into the rest of the country.

The plan is that come January the 30th, there will be 9,000 separate polling stations across the whole of Iraq. That there will be many other individual polling booths within those polling stations. Not only if the election workers now got to help set up those polling stations, but they also have to help print the voting material. They also have to help the political parties get their election campaigns on track. And they also have to explain to an estimated 15 million voters who haven't had a free vote for the last 50 years, that what these elections are about, because there's so little experience here with democracy, that these election workers even have to go through these kind of public information campaigns to explain to them.

No, there are 250 or so political parties and alliances on that ballot sheet. In fact, they can vote for whoever they like. Contrast that with the past, when there were referendums and there were certain votes under Saddam Hussein's era, but there was only ever one choice. We always knew what the outcome of that was going to be, and that was victory either for Saddam or for his Baath Party. COSTELLO: I remember the last election before Saddam fell out of power, what, he won with 99 percent of the vote. Want to bring in Bill Hemmer now, Karl. Stay with us.

HEMMER: Just to reset, Carol, at this point. This is what we know right now, 22 dead, 51 injured, at what is believed to be a dining hall at a U.S. and Iraqi military base in the northern part of the country in the town of Mosul. Apparently multiple rounds fired into a dining hall right at the noon hour, which would obviously have been lunch time, with a very packed interior of that dining hall. We understand among the dead and injured, it is a combination of U.S. military casualties, the Iraqi national guard, and Iraqi civilians. Pentagon sources all giving us this information at this point.

We caution you, and unfortunately oftentimes in cases like these, these numbers do change, and more times than not the numbers climb as opposed to decrease. So when we get more on that front, we'll pass it along to you.

I want to get back to Ken Pollack right now. Ken, you've been listening for the past two 20 or so. Curious to know from your perspective if indeed the issue now is how many people participated in this election, and how many people view this as legitimate in the eyes of the Iraqi people? What is the purpose, ultimately, these elections will serve in trying to stabilize Iraq and push it forward in the momentum of progress?

KEN POLLACK, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, it's a great question, Bill. The administration's perspective on this is effectively that the biggest problem they have is that they can't get Iraqis to fight for reconstruction, and their thinking is that the reason they can't get Iraqis to fight for reconstruction is that because they don't feel like they've got a stake in the government, the government doesn't represent them. And so their hope is that the elections will make Iraqis feel like they do have a legitimate government, and be willing to fight for reconstruction.

But I got to say, I am very skeptical of that theory. Everything I see from Iraqis, everything I see on the ground, my own experiences in Iraq is that the problem there is not the legitimacy of the government. The problem is that the Iraqis do not believe that the United States knows what it's doing, and they basically are waiting to see if we are going to take care of these problems for them.

Iraq has, as a result of 30 years of Saddam Hussein's tyrannical misrule, become a very passive population. It's something that you notice immediately when you're out and about among Iraqis. They expect the government to do for them. And their feeling is the government, in this case the United States, has done nothing for them for 20 months. Way haven't secured the country. We've not restored basic services. We have not made their lives better, and that's the problem they have.

COSTELLO: You mention Saddam Hussein. He met with lawyers in recent days, and his lawyers then had a press conference, and they delivered essentially a message from Saddam Hussein to keep the resistance continuing on behalf of the insurgents in Iraq. It was a political message. It was a military message. Do you believe these attorneys will have the opportunity to meet with Saddam Hussein again in the next five weeks before this election happens?

POLLACK: Yes, you know, look, who the heck knows. The United States really isn't in control of that judicial system there, but the points you're raising are all excellent ones, which is that certainly in an American court proceeding, they would not be allowed to deliver that kind of a message from Saddam Hussein. And I think that in the case of Iraq, U.S. and our coalition allies really ought to be questioning whether those people ought to be allowed to meet with him again, or if they are, they should be effectively barred, effectively barred from delivering similar kinds of messages from Saddam. That clearly had nothing to do with his own -- with the status of his case, it had nothing to do with him as a defendant. There was absolutely no reason or rhyme for them to make that kind of a statement.

HEMMER: Discussions with some sources down at the CIA. It appears, at Langley anyway, that the conversation, and the focus, and the concentration in Iraq today has to do with the insurgents related to a Sunni Arab population, former Baathists, former loyalists Saddam Hussein, and very few on the percentage side in terms of foreign fighters. Is that still the mixture, and the combination that you believe is operating now on behalf of the insurgents?

POLLACK: Absolutely. We've captured large numbers of insurgents. And what is so striking is the tiny numbers of foreigners among them. Overwhelmingly, the insurgency is a Sunni Arab, Iraqi insurgency. And it is correct what you said that these are mostly former members of the regime. But I think it's important that we not get fixated on that term, because that's really not why they're fighting us. These people are not committed Baathists. I mean, I'll be honest with you, Bill, I don't know a single committed Baathist in the entire Arab world. Baathism as an ideology died out in the 1960s, and certainly Saddam Hussein never applied it as an ideology. It never even had the same kind of cache communism did in the late Soviet Union.

They're fighting us because they are members of the Sunni tribal community that effectively ruled over Iraq during Saddam regime that were the top dogs in Iraq, had all of the benefits, who now feel completely dispossessed and alienated from the political process and believe that the government that the United States is trying to create is trying to crush the Sunni population in the same manner that they oppressed their Shia brethren for 80 years.

HEMMER: You're going back to the 1920s. I want to hit on that topic a moment again here, Ken. Hang with me a second. Just want to let our viewers know. Nic Robertson will join me in a moment here from London. He's been to these U.S. military bases in Mosul that we're talking about.

And in case you're just joining us, this is what we know. 22 dead, 51 others injured. A combination of U.S. military, Iraqi national guard and Iraqi civilians at a dining hall, at a U.S. military base in Mosul in northern Iraq. Ken, back to your point. Is there a tipping point where the Sunnis feel so alienated that they believe they've arrived at a point where they must participate in order to ensure some sort of future for them? That would cause them to get involved in this election process, to secure themselves a seat at the political table? As opposed to what we saw 80 years ago, where the Shiites stayed away from this process and we saw what happened with them, the alienation that they experienced in Iraq over the past eight decades?

POLLACK: Yes, it's an interesting question. I don't know that I would say that there's necessarily a tipping point. I don't know that the rest of the country is saying we're going to participate, it's going to cause the Sunnis to be more willing to register -- that is, the Sunni tribal community. I certainly do think that there are ways that we could persuade the Sunni tribals to participate in a new government inside of Iraq, but it would mean taking a very different tact towards them.

It would mean reaching out to their tribal sheikhs, it would mean assuring them of different mechanisms within the government so that they will not be oppressed, it would mean a massive education campaign in the Sunni tribal community. I think if the United States were willing to undertake those things, I think we probably could bring the Sunnis around. But it will require, as I said, a very different approach from the U.S.

HEMMER: Thanks, Ken. Stand by with us on the telephone there. Ken Pollack there, also Elaine Quijano's at the Pentagon. Karl Penhaul is working the story in Baghdad, in the Iraqi capital. And Don Shepperd, our military analyst, on the phone, as well. We'll get back to all of them as this story continues to develop.. But again, here's Carol now.

COSTELLO: Yes, there's some interesting facts that I just received about Mosul. And you forget that Mosul is where Saddam Hussein's two sons were killed. Remember that during the war? That's where they were killed. Mosul is Iraq's third largest city and it has seen incessant violence for the past few weeks, as Sunni-Arab insurgents rattle the U.S.-trained police force in November.

And there has been speculation that Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the terrorist there, moved his operations from Falluja to Mosul. Don't know that for sure, of course, but they believe he's there. Don't know if he's behind this attack, either.

HEMMER: And there's also speculation that he could be in Baghdad at this point. And so much of that is ripe for speculation at this point because...

COSTELLO: It's amazing how well he can hide.

HEMMER: Indeed.

COSTELLO: He can hide. Also earlier on Tuesday, Iraqi police had repelled a new attack by insurgents on a Mosul police station. And there was also an attack on a bus there just a few days ago. Want to head live to the Pentagon to see if the administration is saying anything about this. Elaine Quijano is manning the post there. Good morning.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Carol. Well, the word that we are getting comes to us from Pentagon officials who again, just to recap, are saying that around 4:00 a.m. Eastern time, an unknown number of explosive rounds hit a dining hall. This, again, was near the town of Mosul. 22 people killed. We are told those are numbers that we're getting right now. 51 wounded. Again, this is a mixture of U.S. troops, Iraqi national guard and civilian contractors. We do not have a breakdown at this moment.

What we do have, though, a little bit more on Task Force Olympia. That is the U.S. army group responsible there. 10,000 U.S. troops, we are told, are within the Task Force Olympia group. Of that 10,000, there's a striker brigade, about 5,000 troops, from Fort Lewis, Washington. That really is the main military force there. The rest is support mostly from all over the U.S. military and this brigade replaced the previous striker brigade, we're told, about three months ago.

Now, we have to emphasize that even though this main group is from Fort Lewis, Washington, the other troops are -- the other personnel there are from really all over. But that is a little bit of the background on Task Force Olympia. Again, though, the reports we're getting, the numbers still that we're hearing, 22 people killed, 51 wounded -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Elaine Quijano live from the Pentagon. Again, 22 were killed, some of them U.S. troops, others Iraqi civilians and also members of the Iraqi security forces -- Bill.

HEMMER: Carol, want to get to (UNINTELLIGIBLE) right now. Nic Robertson has been at these bases in northern Iraq. Nic, hello to you there in London. How substantial is the U.S. military presence in Mosul?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INT'L CORRESPONDENT: Bill, it is substantial and it is spread out. And obviously at a time like this, when there have been a number of casualties, families of troops who know they're deployed in Mosul will be concerned. And the military will be concerned that there should be full notification for these families. But this attack does appear to have happened at one base. The striker brigade is spread out across the city of Mosul and a number of different bases. In fact, quite a few different bases within the city of Mosul.

What I remember from my time there about three or four weeks ago is that the base itself, the particular base I was at, is quite spread out. There were these occasional, sometimes daily, mortar or rocket attacks on the base. The timing of those attacks did sometimes seem to coincide with meal times. Perhaps late in the day, just as dusk was falling, when perhaps the insurgents were making the assumption that troops would be gathering together for the meal time part of the day. And again, we don't know which of these bases in Mosul was targeted. However, from my own experience at the base I spent a lot of time at, the dining facility there was a large tent-like structure. That is, it is not a hard structure. It does not have a hard roof. It is made of a soft material.

It has not been that particular camp that I was at, and again, I do have to stress, Bill, that we don't know which camp has been targeted. Or -- more details beyond that at this time. But as the troops would gather for the meal time of the day, three times a day, they would be collected in a facility that would have a -- essentially between them and any rockets or mortars coming in, a very thin layer of material, Bill.

HEMMER: And understanding and knowing and walking with some caution here, too, Nic, that we do not know which base this is. Based on your experience there, what is the surrounding area like? Is this perhaps an area where it's easily -- where you're able to hide just off side the military base? Or would you have to be quite a distance, maybe even a few miles away in order to carry off an attack like this?

ROBERTSON: Well, I spent some time talking with the troops about that. And this is one of the things, one of the issues that they've been trying to deal with, particularly the unit that I was with. There are areas that were quite close to their camp where they had been able to successfully patrol those areas and deny the insurgents the opportunity to base mortars or rockets within those particular areas.

They had identified other areas that they believed that they could be attacked from. Indeed, they were convinced that these were particular areas that the insurgents could use. They'd been going to make progress in patrolling those areas, in trying to -- in trying to deny, again, the insurgents, the access of that particular area.

But one of the problems one captain explained to me, he said, look, sometimes these insurgents will literally drive along the road, jump out of a car with a mortar, fire off two or three rounds in the mortar, throw it in the car, and drive off again. Obviously, any military tactician will know, any soldier will know, that firing a mortar in that manner is a very inaccurate way of firing it. A mortar needs to be -- have rounds fired and where those rounds land, calculate and then fed back in so they can be fired more accurately.

But one of the problems that the troops there do face is the fact that the insurgents will literally jump out of a vehicle, fire off a few rounds from a mortar, jump back in and drive off. It makes defeating them very difficult. But in the areas they're located, they have been able to stop them to some degree.

HEMMER: Let me push my luck here. Camp Merez, M-E-R-E-Z, that's what the Pentagon's saying. Does that ring a bell, Nic?

ROBERTSON: That does. That's not the camp that I'm most familiar with in Mosul, Bill, but that is, I believe, a camp in that area. There are, as I say, a number. I'd like to check the spelling on that camp to see further.

HEMMER: Sure. Will do. Nic, good work there. Thanks. Nic Robertson from London, recently back from Iraq. And again, in that part of the country that we are talking about today with this incident breaking here on CNN just about an hour ago -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Yes. 22 people killed in some kind of attack on a U.S. dining hall at a military base in Mosul, Iraq, in the northern part of Iraq. Of course, Daryn Kagan and Tony Harris will have much more on this from Atlanta. Good morning.

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Aired December 21, 2004 - 9:01   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: The husband of a woman accused of killing for a baby now speaking out about the crime.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEVIN MONTGOMERY, SUSPECT'S HUSBAND: My heart ain't broke just for me and Lisa and her kids, it's them too. That was a precious baby.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: That baby now getting stronger. We'll hear from the hospital where she's recovering now.

A Christmas travel alert. Heavy snow expected, and it could make for a tough journey this week.

And the study on the painkiller Aleve, suspended before it was finished. An important warning for you ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

HEMMER: The commute's a brisk one this morning with the temperatures out there. Good morning, everybody. Nine o'clock in New York. Soledad is out today. Carol Costello here with us.

And good morning to you.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. And good morning to all of you.

HEMMER: Yes. Nice to have you along with us.

Much more coming up on that stolen baby matter. Part of the investigation now focusing on these e-mails between the victim and the suspect, as well as a Web site offering puppies for sale. We'll talk about the risks of meeting strangers online and what you can do to protect yourself in the event that you think you might be getting stalked or violated on the security side. We'll get to that.

COSTELLO: Such a bizarre story. You know, we're going to go outside on this AMERICAN MORNING just because, well, we want to show you how you can more effectively drive when there's about three feet of snow on the roadways. There's the car we're going to be practicing in. It's pretty darn nice, isn't it?

HEMMER: It's a great-looking car, yes. Who's going outside, by the way?

COSTELLO: I think I am.

HEMMER: Raise your hand.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: By the way, they just called from Atlanta. They want to know if you can do Paula's show, Larry King and Anderson Cooper tonight. They said they're a little short, people off for the Christmas holidays. You don't mind, do you?

COSTELLO: Oh, no. Just need a little nap. A little nappy.

HEMMER: Push on through.

CAFFERTY: Is America slowly losing Christmas to political correctness? Is it OK to wish somebody "Merry Christmas," or should you say "Happy Holidays" so as not to offend their religious sensibilities?

That would be the QOD. AM@CNN.com. We'll read some e-mails. Getting a lot of mail. This is a very touchy hot-button issue.

HEMMER: And timely.

CAFFERTY: And we also got an e-mail I'm going to share with you later about -- about these cheesy coffee cups you're given away on the morning program.

HEMMER: Oh, cool.

COSTELLO: My poor little show.

HEMMER: Just stir the pot.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: You pick on those coffee cups almost every day.

CAFFERTY: Our viewers got a suggestion. It's not a bad idea, actually. I'll read them to you later.

HEMMER: OK. Looking forward to that.

COSTELLO: Oh no.

WALLACE: All right.

HEMMER: Here's Kelly Wallace with the news now.

Good morning.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning again. Good morning again, everyone.

"Now in the News," about an hour ago, word that a U.S. military base in northern Iraq has come under attack. We go live now to Baghdad, where CNN's Karl Penhaul is. Karl, we know the U.S. military is saying the blast caused multiple casualties. What can you tell us?

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Correct, Kelly. That's what the U.S. military has said in a statement.

This explosion took place at a military base in the northern city of Mosul. That's where U.S. forces have been staging another offensive against insurgents over recent weeks.

No more details exactly about the precise circumstances of that blast. We do know that it went off at about midday local time. That would have been about five hours ago.

Now, the U.S. military has said there are multiple casualties but haven't given us a breakdown of possible dead or wounded. They also haven't stipulated whether these are all military casualties or whether there may be civilians amongst them. Typically, in a lot of these bases there would be not only military personnel, but civilian personnel as well -- Kelly.

WALLACE: All right, Karl. Karl Penhaul monitoring developments for us in Baghdad. Again, word a U.S. military base in Mosul coming under attack. Word that there are "multiple casualties." More as we get it here on AMERICAN MORNING.

Here in the United States, another warning about a popular over- the-counter drug. The FDA saying the pain reliever Naproxen, also known as Aleve, has been found to increase risk of heart attacks and strokes in users. The warning comes just days after a similar caution about the arthritis drug Celebrex.

Still no clues today about the whereabouts of a 9-year-old boy in northern Pennsylvania. But we may hear a statement from his family sometime this morning. Logan Mitcheltree is autistic and cannot speak. He was last seen by his family on Saturday. Searchers are out again today scouring the area, but the frigid weather has hampered those efforts.

And finally, we just learned about two hours ago when "Harry Potter" fans can get their hands on the next book in the boy wizard series. Publisher's announcing a July 16 release date for author JK Rowling's sixth book. The author says, though, one of her characters is not going to survive in the newest installment.

Which character will that be? Well, you have to get the book and read it to find out. The book called "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" again coming out this summer.

COSTELLO: Bill's not getting the importance of this issue about the book.

HEMMER: I get it. I just -- we've done it like five times in two hours now.

COSTELLO: She said the release date. That's when people can buy it.

HEMMER: Yes.

WALLACE: Lots of "Harry Potter" fans out there, as you know. We will be counting the days until that book comes out.

HEMMER: Thank you, Kelly. Oh, by the way, happy birthday.

WALLACE: Oh, right, right. This just in. Thank you so much.

HEMMER: See you later.

About six minutes now past the hour. Thanks, Kelly. You've been a good sport.

Want to get back to this story. Funeral services held today for the Missouri woman whose baby was cut from her womb. Twenty-three- year-old Bobbie Jo Stinnett was killed in her home in Skidmore, Missouri, last Thursday.

Lisa Montgomery, the woman charged in the death, is due back in court Thursday. Her husband talked outside the courthouse yesterday about the matter.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MONTGOMERY: Victoria Jo got a rough road to go. Just -- I know you all got a job, but please respect some of our privacy. It's tough for all of us right now.

I know you all got a job, but it is mighty tough for all of us. I might talk to some more people later, but right now that's all I can do. My heart ain't broke just for me and Lisa and her kids, it's them too. That was a precious baby. I know.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: The baby, Victoria Jo Stinnett, has now been released from the health center in Topeka, Kansas. Earlier today I talked with Carol Wheeler. Carol Wheeler is vice president of Stormont-Vail Healthcare. I talked to her about the baby's condition.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAROL WHEELER, V.P., STORMONT-VAIL HEALTHCARE: She was in remarkably good condition, given all that she's been through. We really don't feel that she's going to need any particular extra care at this point in time.

HEMMER: And what was the condition of the baby when she arrived?

WHEELER: When she arrived, she was also in very good condition, which was a little bit surprising to us, in that normally infants born one month prematurely would have been in an intensive care setting and being observed by medical professionals. Of course, that didn't happen with this baby for the first 24 hours. But clearly, she was a very healthy fetus, and had done really quite well during that first 24 hours.

HEMMER: Even though she was premature, no additional complications then, is that right, Carol?

WHEELER: That's correct. And we don't expect her to have any.

HEMMER: The pastor described the baby as beautiful. He held her for a period of about 15 minutes on last Friday, at the end of last week. He also described a bruise on her hand and a scratch on her head. Were you aware of these possible injuries, and if so, were they significant to any to degree?

WHEELER: You know, I don't believe they were. I don't recall that. The neonatologist certainly didn't speak about those as being anything at all to be concerned about?

HEMMER: How has it been around the hospital with this story and this baby coming to you in the way she did?

WHEELER: Well, as you can imagine, it's consumed a lot of our time, a lot of media interest, which we can certainly understand.

We, however, treat premature infants everyday in this hospital. Our neonatal intensive care unit, at any given day, will have 25, 26 babies in it. And this baby was not treated in any way differently than any of our other patients would have been treated. Our nurses and our neonatologists are just dedicated to the care of these patients and to their families.

HEMMER: You mentioned the families. Can you tell us how they're doing, Carol?

WHEELER: When I spoke with them over the last couple of days, I was touched by how well they were doing. As you can imagine, Bill, the emotions have run the gamut for them. First of all, the joy at the birth of this baby and being reunited with her, then tempered somewhat, of course, by the grief they're experience at the tragic loss of Victoria Jo's mother. But they're doing well, I think, given the circumstances.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HEMMER: Again, Carol Wheeler. She's vice president of the Stormont-Vail Regional Health Center, earlier today in Topeka, Kansas.

Lisa Montgomery and Bobbie Jo Stinnett met online. How can you then protect yourself from dangerous people on the Internet? Our safety expert, Bob Stuber, is in Orange, California, back with us here on AMERICAN MORNING.

It's good to have you back, Bob, too. And good morning to you out there.

BOB STUBER, SAFETY.COM: Thank you, Bill.

HEMMER: If you think someone's stalking you online, what can you do?

STUBER: You know, that's -- that's really the million-dollar question. You have to have a very short tolerance here. And you have to define stalking as anybody that goes from the cyber world into your real world.

So if they show up, whether it's they've written you a letter, they have phone calls, anything where now you know they know where you live, you have to get active and you have to do it quick. And here's the good news. Most local law enforcement agencies, even in small towns now, have either a division or an officer that handles cyber crimes. And they can get on this very, very quickly.

But you have to move fast. That's the key, is moving very fast.

HEMMER: Bob, it's my judgment that many of us give private information online. But it's also my judgment that very few of us have been burned. Is that your judgment as well?

STUBER: Well, in a case like this, that's true. This kind of situation. But when it comes to a -- the larger crime, which is identity theft, it's one of the fastest-growing crimes in the nation right now.

So it's getting larger and larger all the time. A lot of people, millions of people, have been burned because of things that have happened online. But not to the extent of this kind of crime.

HEMMER: Yes. So then, if I'm operating online, I've got a bank account online, I'm doing financial work online, stuff that I want to consider private and keep it to myself, how different is that from perhaps yourself, if you have a business online? And is there a difference?

STUBER: No, there's really not. That's a great question, Bill.

There's really not a difference, because the type of person, the type of criminal that has really learned to use the Internet, they don't care if it's banking, or if you're trying to sell puppies, or whatever you're doing. They know how to access you online and counter you, and then get the type of information they need to invade your world.

By the time that they show up in your world, whether it's a phone call or whatever, they probably already have your Social Security number, credit information, medical information. And we as a society have been selling that information on each other for years.

HEMMER: Yes. What about online auctions? There's a lot of information that goes out over that.

And can you protect yourself, number one? Or do we fall back to your answer, where it says if somebody wants to commit this crime, they can get to it? It's just a question of when and how.

STUBER: It falls back to, if they want to get you, they're going to get you. Because we have not kept up to date with the type of protections and the laws and the different things we need.

So whether you're doing eBay work, you're at an auction, no matter what you're doing, if you're online, you have to remember, you're out there in a world that can become real. And when it becomes real, it can enter into your world, and there can be some serious crimes committed.

HEMMER: I think the advice you gave at the outset was the best, keep track of it and act fast if you think you're being violated.

STUBER: Very fast.

HEMMER: Thank you, Bob. Bob Stuber out in Orange, California.

STUBER: Thank you.

HEMMER: Always good to talk to you.

STUBER: You too.

HEMMER: Want to go outside right now. I think Carol drew the short straw.

Hey, Carol. How is it?

COSTELLO: Yes, how is it I drew the short straw? I don't get that. Oh, I have to talk into this microphone because the wind is blowing so hard.

Let's head live to Atlanta and check with Chad to find out exactly what the temperature is.

Guess what I'm going to talk about out here, Chad?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: The reason why you moved to New York City?

COSTELLO: Because of the balmy, beautiful weather?

MYERS: Yes.

COSTELLO: No. No, actually I'm going to talk about how you can drive in the snow safely since we're expecting that big storm tomorrow.

MYERS: Well, you may need that. New York City, though, in much better shape than, let's say, the Midwest, Carol.

(WEATHER REPORT)

MYERS: Carol, you may need that advice that you're going to get from my friend Gene Jennings (ph), actually.

COSTELLO: Yes. Gene (ph) mentioned -- congratulations on the baby grand (ph) she says. So well wishes to you. We're going to show you how to drive this baby, this nice Chrysler, looking really clean. I wonder how that happened.

But anyway, Bill, Bill Hemmer, we're going to show people how to drive safely in the snow and the sleet, and if pumping your brakes really work.

HEMMER: Looking forward to it. Thank you, Carol. Talk to you in a moment out there.

Also, the president laying out his agenda for 2005. What are his priorities? A live update from the White House on that.

Howard Stern made headlines in 2004 by announcing a switch to satellite radio. But the man going with him could help make an even bigger impact. We'll have a look at that as we continue in a moment after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Welcome back. Now getting more details about what happened in Mosul earlier today. In fact, about five hours ago, and the details are not good.

Twenty-two dead now at a U.S. military base, 51 others are injured. The information we have is this: multiple rounds, rocket rounds, fired into a ding hall at a U.S. military base here in Mosul.

We are told there are U.S. casualties. There are National Guard casualties on the Iraqi side. There are Iraqi civilians in the casualty list as well.

Again, all this happening at 4:00 a.m. Eastern Time, which would have been about noon local time in northern Iraq, about five hours ago. And Pentagon sources filling us in with more information.

Elaine Quijano is at her Pentagon position there.

And Elaine, what more can you add?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, not a whole lot. Those are pretty much all the details that we know right now.

As you said, Pentagon officials now confirming that around 4:00 a.m. Eastern Time, as you mentioned, an unknown number of explosive rounds did hit a dining hall. Now, we're told that this was close to Mosul, not necessarily in Mosul itself, at the forward operating base called Mared (ph).

As you said, 22 people, reports that 22 people were killed and 51 wounded. As you mentioned also, this was apparently a mixture of not only U.S. troops but Iraqi National Guard members and some civilian contractors as well. Although we don't have a breakdown on exact numbers at this point.

But again, Pentagon officials confirming reports now 22 people dead, 51 wounded. An unknown number of explosive rounds hitting a dining hall near Mosul -- Bill. HEMMER: I want to try and shake down some more details if I could. I know this is not your normal post at the Pentagon here, so if I'm going into areas where you don't know, pull me back here.

Let me try a few things here, though. Do we know the presence for the U.S. military in that part of Iraq, in and around the area of Mosul?

QUIJANO: Well, we know that the U.S. Army in that particular area, Task Force Olympia, is tapped with obviously keeping that area secure. As far as exact numbers, just not sure at the time on what we're talking about in terms of the U.S. presence in that area.

But obviously this coming on the heels of President Bush saying yesterday that bombers are having an effect. Undoubtedly now it's a critical time in that area in Iraq, especially now that Falluja has been cleared out, much has been made of whether or not Mosul might be another problematic area for the U.S., for the coalition forces there.

Now we're seeing evidence, obviously more violence. President Bush saying yesterday that in the run-up to the elections he does expect more violence. It appears we're seeing that now -- Bill.

HEMMER: And also the headline from a couple hours ago, Elaine, as you well know. Tony Blair making a surprise visit to Baghdad earlier today, arriving there and showing support. And holding a joint press conference with Ayad Allawi, the man that many believe could do quite well from this point until the end of January, which is when elections are scheduled now on the 30th of January.

But back to the issue in Mosul, one has to wonder what the dining hall for the U.S. military, Iraqi National Guard and civilians working there, how close these attacks took place to that military base and how they could get so close in order to launch an attack as brazen as this, Elaine?

QUIJANO: Well, certainly, that's one thing authorities obviously are going to be looking at. And we just don't have the details on the layout and exactly where the insurgents may have launched a particular attack, or whomever it was that was responsible for the attack.

But undoubtedly, as I said, with this being such a critical time, the U.S. well aware. And officials here certainly at the Pentagon well aware that there is an increased push, perhaps, to try and disrupt elections.

Now, as I mentioned, Mosul is an area particularly where there has been some concern, perhaps, perhaps now that the Falluja area has been essentially cleaned out, as best as possible. That perhaps there could be a movement towards Mosul, an area maybe where insurgents may regroup.

But at this particular point, Bill, those are certainly some of the questions they'll be looking at, exactly where this dining hall is positioned, how close these insurgents, or whomever these attackers may be, are getting to these U.S. military personnel. HEMMER: Elaine, stand by at the Pentagon. Want to get straight away to Baghdad right now, Karl Penhaul.

This is what we know at this point, Karl. And I want you to go ahead and fill in other blanks as way get them.: 22 dead, 51 injured. All happening at a dining hall at a U.S. military base in Mosul. What more can you add from your perspective there in the Iraqi capital?

PENHAUL: Well, certainly what we understand from our sources is that those dead and injured are a mixture not only of U.S. military personnel, but also members of Iraq's National Guard, who share part of this compound with the U.S. military. And also some civilians.

That could be a mixture of U.S. civilian contractors, as well as third-party nationals who also work typically in the dining facilities across the U.S. bases across Iraq. There will be a mixture of Filipinos and Indians, Bangladeshis, people from third countries who come in and help.

Now, as far as how far away the insurgents would need to have been to rain either mortars or rockets down on this base, at this point it isn't clear whether this was a rocket attack or whether it was a mortar attack. But depending on the caliber of those artillery rounds, this attack could have come from anything between 10 and 15 miles away.

All that would point, if it did come from that far away, that the insurgents would need to have some very good sighting system. It would need to have people fairly far forward so that they could check on the accuracy of the first rounds, and then possibly adjust their firing tubes after that to make sure that further rounds did hit on target.

But certainly, from what we do hear from our sources, this was a multiple attack. So multiple artillery rounds, either rockets or mortars, falling on that dining facility.

What we do also know as well is that about two, three weeks ago, we had a CNN team up in Mosul following part of the defensive that was going on there against the insurgents. Again, the insurgents had taken root in parts of the city and were fighting running street battles with the U.S. military there.

Obviously the offensive failed to clear those out fully from there. But what we do know is, at that time, on one of the camps in Mosul, Camp Mores (ph), that certainly U.S. commanders there had expressed concern about the dining facility because it is a soft building. These aren't hardened buildings that can withstand these kind of attacks. And in the words of one commander to one of our team that was up there, he expressed doubts about the dining facility safety and said it could be only a matter of time before this type of attack occurred.

HEMMER: Quickly, Karl, was Mosul in the calm category or just the calmer category as compared to the central part of Iraq? PENHAUL: No, Mosul wasn't in a calm category at all, really, because once we saw the Falluja offensive kick off in -- at the end of the first week in November, we also saw a displacement of a lot of the violence up towards Mosul. There were, as I say, running street battles there between insurgents and U.S. military. At one point, the insurgents managed to take most of the police stations in Mosul and drive the police away.

There were thoughts that the police officers there were actually collaborating with the insurgents at one point. There was also a suspicion as well that part of the Abu Musab al--Zarqawi network had transferred to Mosul at some stage.

So, although it's about 220, 230 miles north of Baghdad, it certainly is not a calm city. This has been the scene of repeated insurgent violence.

HEMMER: Karl Penhaul in Baghdad there again. The details as we have them now, 22 dead, 51 injured. Multiple rocket rounds fired into a U.S. dining hall at a U.S. military base in northern Iraq in the town of Mosul.

All this information coming through Pentagon sources. We'll continue to work this story here.

More now with Carol on this.

COSTELLO: Yes, we had Major -- Major General Don Sheppard on the line, our military analyst.

Good morning.

MAJ. GEN. DONALD SHEPPARD, U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): Hi. Good morning.

COSTELLO: That this explosion occurred at a U.S. military base, what does that tell you? General Don Sheppard, can you hear me?

SHEPPARD: I'm sorry, you faded out there. I've been listening to your comments, however.

COSTELLO: OK. I want to ask you again, that this explosion occurred at a U.S. base in Mosul, what does that tell you?

SHEPPARD: Yes, well, I tell you, Mosul has been calmer than the southern part of the country. However, lately we've seen an upsurge in attacks.

Some of this is due to probably to insurgents that are out of Falluja. But also the troops in many of the areas are in softer-type quarters, tents, this type of thing, and buildings that are not fortified like they are in the Green Zone. So when these type of attacks occur, the troops are much more vulnerable up there in the northern part of the country, where it's been much calmer than down south. COSTELLO: But still, General, isn't it disturbing that the insurgents are getting closer to U.S. military bases and launching effective attacks on them?

SHEPPARD: Well, not necessarily. Because in Mosul, as I say, it's been calmer. And you don't have the large area cleared in Mosul like you do in the Green Zone down south.

It's not -- it's not everywhere that you have, you know, a very wide area where people can't get close to your troops. And so in many areas of the country, not just in Mosul, but in other areas of the country, the insurgents can get up much closer.

Earlier reports were that this was a rocket attack. Somehow I doubt it, unless it was just a lucky -- a lucky hit, because rockets are notoriously inaccurate.

COSTELLO: Well, you know, U.S. troops cleared out of -- cleared out Falluja of insurgents. Some say these insurgents have moved on to Mosul. Is there any real evidence of that from your perspective?

SHEPPARD: Oh, I think it's undoubtedly true that some of the insurgents from Falluja are up in the Mosul area. But I think it's way too early to speculate that this is any type of attack as a result of what happened in Falluja.

It's just that Falluja was such a nest of these insurgents that they -- that there were a lot of them there, and they moved all over the country. So it's not just Mosul. But again, Mosul has been calm enough that they could move up there and have a lot more freedom than they could in other parts of the country.

COSTELLO: And again, you know, you always have to ask the question when these things happen. You know, the U.S. military has made so many arrests. They've confiscated so many weapons, so many explosives. And yet these things continue to occur. You have to wonder just how much stuff is out there.

SHEPPARD: Well, from my visit over there, you cannot believe the amount of arms and explosives still in that country. The entire country was an explosives dump. It would take years and years and years under ideal, calm conditions to clear it.

They will never run short of money, and they will never run short of arms. It's just going to be a very long trek until -- until not only we, but also the Iraqi military is able to establish control across that country. And they'll never run short of arms and explosive devices.

COSTELLO: And I guess it's safe to say that the violence will only continue to escalate as the elections approach?

SHEPPARD: I think they're going to attempt to escalate as the elections approach. And not only this election, but then you have another year to the following December, when the real election takes place. And so I think we can expect another year of this type of thing. It's going to be a very tough situation as long as we are there. And even after we leave.

COSTELLO: Did you listen to the president's peach yesterday, General?

SHEPPARD: I did.

COSTELLO: He said the insurgents were having an effect on the fighting there. How did you take those remarks?

SHEPPARD: Well, I thought it was from a matter-of-fact -- a matter-of-fact explanation of what all of us are seeing. This insurgency is not dying out. It's not being conquered. It's spreading in many areas.

The fact that Falluja was cleared out we said was not going to mean an end to the insurgency. But I think some people thought it was going to (UNINTELLIGIBLE). And indeed, the attacks did lessen for a short while in numbers after that. But now they're spreading to other areas. So I thought he was making just a matter-of-fact comment that all of us have seen.

Of course this having an effect. And it's not dying out.

COSTELLO: General Don Sheppard, thanks for joining AMERICAN MORNING this morning -- Bill.

HEMMER: 9:30 here in New York City. I want to welcome our international viewers here to CNN as we continue our coverage on what's happening in the town of Mosul in northern Iraq. An image is now shaping up here at a U.S. military base. At noon local time, at the height of lunch hour, at this U.S. military base where you have Iraqi national guard members gathered, Iraqi civilians intermixed with U.S. military personnel.

Multiple rounds were fired into a dining hall at the noon hour, happening about five and a half hours ago. The reports we have now, 22 dead, 51 others injured. As we get more information through our Pentagon sources, we'll pass it along to you. Want to bring in Ken Pollack now, an Iraqi analyst now with Saban Center, Brookings Institution by telephone.

And Ken, put together the image that we're now creating over the past three days. On Sunday, you have significant attacks against Shiite targets in the southern part of the country. And now this report in the northern part of Iraq aimed primarily at the U.S. military and the Iraqi national guard serving on that base.

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well certainly, Bill, the image that we're seeing is one that looks like a coordinated attack across the country. That may be deceptive. And it's important to keep in mind why it may be deceptive. It may simply be that you have local Iraqi insurgent groups launching attacks wherever they can. In some ways, that's worse news than if this is a coordinated nationwide campaign. If it's a coordinated nationwide campaign, that suggests there's a leadership somewhere, you can go out and attack that leadership. I think far more likely this is a completely decentralized insurgency. You have local groups simply mounting attacks whenever they can do so. That is much, harder for us to deal with.

HEMMER: And so in your judgment, Ken, just to be clear, you believe they're hitting targets where they can?

POLLACK: Correct.

HEMMER: As opposed to a connected strategy?

POLLACK: Exactly. This is classic guerrilla warfare. They're looking for targets of opportunity. They scope out a location, they reconnoiter a target. When they decide that they can do some damage, they go after it. And the problem is that there are enough insurgents with enough weapons and enough intelligence that they are able to hit us on a regular basis week in and week out all across the country.

HEMMER: On a political note, the British prime minister Tony Blair, in a surprise visit to Baghdad, held a joint press conference a few hours ago with the interim leader Ayad Allawi. What is the residence for a visit like this for the Iraqi people when they find people like Tony Blair stopping into their country to express his support for what's happening?

POLLACK: Well, it's hard to say, because obviously different Iraqis take it in different ways. In the Sunni community, which is largely alienated from the process of reconstruction, the reason that we've got this terrible problem with the insurgency, they see this as yet another imperialist power coming in to pay tribute to a Shia/Kurdish government. That's how they look at things.

For many other Iraqis, Shia and Kurds, they will look at it and say all right, this is one of the great powers again showing solidarity. They certainly want to know that the rest of the world is going to stick things out with them. But, honestly, the question that most Iraqis will ask is Mr. Blair, it's very nice to see you, but what are you going to do about our security situation? What are you going to do about our power, our water, about the other problems that we have?

HEMMER: We are a little more than five weeks away from the expected vote on January 30th, Ken. I'm interested to get to how you look at the way the story lines are now developing in Iraq. It appears quite clearly that the Shiites, no matter how many die between now and the end of January, they are going to wait for this vote and they will vote when the vote comes around.

If you go to the top of the leadership on the religious side, with Ali Sistani and the support he has given certain members of the political group now, going forward at the end of January, coupled with the fact that many are wondering now that the key in this election may not necessarily be on the Shiite side, but on the Sunni side. And I say that for this reason. How many Sunnis will vote at the end of January? Is that where the key lies now? In the short-term for the future of Iraq?

POLLACK: Well, I think that certainly gets at the heart of the issue. I wouldn't put it necessarily, though, as how many Sunnis will vote? I think the bigger question is does the Sunni tribal community, the folks who live in western Iraq and northern Iraq, where the basis for the insurgency, will they feel that the vote encompasses their political aspirations? That they can be part of this new political system? I am very dubious that they will.

All signs indicate that they see the election as nothing more than another American sponsored effort to put them into a subordinate status beneath the Shia and as a result, they are not going to see it as legitimate, they're not going to see it as including them. And as a result, I think that there's a very real likelihood that the election is going to have absolutely no impact on the insurgency.

HEMMER: Election scheduled for the end of January. They anticipate electing 275 members of a new Iraqi parliament at that time. And certainly -- Ken, as you point out there, so many things on the table still to be determined before that vote takes place. Ken, thanks. Ken Pollack by telephone there. The news we have, 22 dead, 51 injured at a U.S. military base, northern Iraq in the town of Mosul. More now with Carol on this.

COSTELLO: Obviously the U.S. military isn't saying much about this incident just yet. Let's head live to Baghdad to check in with Karl Penhaul to see what else we have found out. Something struck me, many of these deaths were Iraqi national guardsmen and Iraqi police. They've already had a problem with not many people wanting to join the Iraqi national guard. How will this affect it, Karl?

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, indeed this has been one of the strategies of the insurgents of late to target both the Iraqi security forces as well as the Iraqi police to try and dissuade ordinary Iraqis from joining those groups. Over the last few days -- last week, in fact, we did talk to an insurgent leader inside of Baghdad. He was the intelligence chief for the insurgency in Baghdad. And he said these types of attacks against Iraqi security forces, or even civilian Iraqis working with the Americans, would continue.

He said because they viewed these people as collaborating with the coalition forces and they still believe that Iraq is under occupation. They're casting this very much as a resistance fight by Iraqis against the occupiers and so that's why they're targeting Iraqi security forces. They think they're part of the problem...

COSTELLO: Karl, is...

PENHAUL: Specifically as far as Mosul is concerned, we do know that Mosul, as violence spiked there as the offensive in Falluja got under way and there was speculation by U.S. military sources at the time that some of the fighters from Falluja had simply melted away and headed north to Mosul. There was also speculation that part of the Abu Musab al Zarqawi terrorist network had also taken root in Mosul, Carol.

COSTELLO: Karl, is there any way to know how many Iraqi national guardsmen and police have died?

PENHAUL: Very difficult to keep tabs on this. And -- but we've seen even in the two months that I've been here now, we've seen attacks more or less every day, targeting Iraqi security forces in lesser or in greater numbers. The biggest attack was about a month ago now when more than 45 Iraqi soldiers were massacred in one site close to the Iranian border. But those are the kind of -- the big attacks.

But daily, daily, daily there are attacks on twos and threes. Sometimes simply an insurgent will put a bullet to the back of their heads as they're out on patrol in a city. Other times there will be these spectacular suicide car bomb attacks on police stations, but a daily occurrence.

COSTELLO: You know, the U.S. military is counting on the Iraqis to help them in the fight. Are Iraqis still joining the security forces?

PENHAUL: Talking to the U.S. military again last week, they did say that they haven't seen any problems with recruiting. And they do see that they do feel that they are on track to build up Iraqi security forces. They recognize that it has been slow and they also recognize that in the initial phases, some of their vetting procedures weren't up to scratch to get the best possible recruits.

Also today, if you look at Prime Minister Tony Blair's visit to Iraq, he also said that he believed that this was the right strategy to build up Iraqi security forces, and the sooner that they could be built up, the sooner coalition troops could get home. That said, independent analysts do believe that this process is very, very slow.

And they also point to certain firefights in the past, certain important battles in the past, where Iraqi security forces haven't stood and fought and have simply run away. One of the cases in point being Mosul last month, when insurgents did step up activities there and targeted police stations. Many of the police stations were easily overrun because the police simply ran away, Carol.

COSTELLO: You know, I'm just wondering, if you know, with so many Iraqis dying in the security forces, whether it's a question of improper training or is it just that you can't stop the insurgents' violence?

PENHAUL: The insurgent violence, because of the way it's structured will obviously be very difficult to deter. Because yes, we have seen the major set piece conventional-type offensives that we saw in Falluja. We saw one after that in the so-called triangle of death just south of Baghdad. We also saw another major offensive in Mosul itself.

But the problem is, this guerrilla war that the insurgents are fighting is a mobile hit and run war. One moment they might be targeting economic targets, such as sabotaging oil infrastructure, the next minute they might be taking on the U.S. military head-on. Other moments they might be driving suicide car bombs into the lines of potential recruits for the Iraqi police force.

Because there are -- because there are such a varied type of number of attacks, this is what makes it difficult to stop. And so far there has been no sign that this insurgent violence will abate. In fact, it seems to be rising rather than falling, Carol.

COSTELLO: You know, it's such a contrast with what happened earlier this morning when Tony Blair made the surprise visit. He held that joint news conference with the interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi. They were practically jovial at the end of that news conference.

PENHAUL: Well, certainly the fact that Prime Minister Blair flew in to the center of Baghdad to hold that press conference seemed to be an expression of confidence, because you'll remember that when President Bush flew in to Baghdad in thanksgiving 2003, he remained at Baghdad International Airport. He didn't venture into downtown Baghdad. This, again, the first visit by Prime Minister Blair to Baghdad. Before, he had visited British troops down in the southern city of Basra, which has remained much calmer than here in Baghdad.

Nevertheless, though, the fact that Prime Minister Blair had to fly from Baghdad International Airport in to downtown Baghdad is a reflection, really, of the dire security situation here, because that road between the international airport and downtown Baghdad, about a 10-mile stretch, has been declared now off limits to both British and U.S. diplomats, because it is the frequent target of suicide car bomb attacks. But yes, you're right, Prime Minister Blair and Prime Minister Allawi did seem very upbeat in that press conference, although Mr. Blair did recognize that the security situation is very grave, and that it will present challenges for the January 30th elections -- Carol.

COSTELLO: You know, Karl, it was interesting when a reporter asked Tony Blair how it felt, how the security situation felt as he flew in to his destination and he said well, you know, you could feel the danger, but he said that he thought the efforts in Iraq were working, and we just had to stay the course. What else did he have to say about the insurgents' violence in Iraq?

PENHAUL: Well, very much Mr. Blair cast this insurgent violence in black-and-white terms, very much as a battle between good and evil. In this words, he said that the current climate of violence was a battle between democracy and terror. And he said that that's why terrorism had to be defeated in Iraq, because that would help deal a blow to terrorism worldwide.

That said, the insurgency here in Iraq sees things in very much a different light. They see this as a resistance campaign by Iraqis against occupiers.

But Mr. Blair, (INAUDIBLE), one analyst describes that this was a mixture of rhetoric to the Western viewers to kind of express confidence that his Iraq policy is working, and also express confidence in these January 30th elections. On the ground, though, the situation is less optimistic than Mr. Blair appeared to paint. In fact, on Sunday we saw an example of that just about four blocks from where Mr. Blair and Mr. Allawi were speaking yesterday, where the scenes, those horrific scenes where we saw three senior election workers dragged from a vehicle and killed at pistol point by gunmen who saw no need to mask their faces. That insurgent group was operating just three or four blocks from where Mr. Blair was talking today. So it shows the level of impunity that these insurgents feel that they can operate with, both in the capital and across the rest of Iraq -- Carol.

COSTELLO: And, Karl, Tony Blair called those election workers heroes. Here's more of what he had to say about them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: People should understand how precious what is being created here is. And those people from that electoral commission that I described as the heroes of the new Iraq, every day a lot of them aren't living in the green zone. They've got to travel in from outside. They do not know at any point in time whether they're going to be subject to brutality or intimidation, even death, and yet they carry on doing it. Now, what a magnificent example of the human spirit, and that's the side we should be on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: It is a magnificent display.

Tell us, Karl, how many elections workers are there?

PENHAUL: There are about 9,000 altogether across the country, we understand. But they're broken down in very different capacities, because there is a core which is called the Independent Electoral Commission. But then there are regional delegates and local delegates, and those kind of radiate out into the neighborhoods of Baghdad, and radiate out into the rest of the country.

The plan is that come January the 30th, there will be 9,000 separate polling stations across the whole of Iraq. That there will be many other individual polling booths within those polling stations. Not only if the election workers now got to help set up those polling stations, but they also have to help print the voting material. They also have to help the political parties get their election campaigns on track. And they also have to explain to an estimated 15 million voters who haven't had a free vote for the last 50 years, that what these elections are about, because there's so little experience here with democracy, that these election workers even have to go through these kind of public information campaigns to explain to them.

No, there are 250 or so political parties and alliances on that ballot sheet. In fact, they can vote for whoever they like. Contrast that with the past, when there were referendums and there were certain votes under Saddam Hussein's era, but there was only ever one choice. We always knew what the outcome of that was going to be, and that was victory either for Saddam or for his Baath Party. COSTELLO: I remember the last election before Saddam fell out of power, what, he won with 99 percent of the vote. Want to bring in Bill Hemmer now, Karl. Stay with us.

HEMMER: Just to reset, Carol, at this point. This is what we know right now, 22 dead, 51 injured, at what is believed to be a dining hall at a U.S. and Iraqi military base in the northern part of the country in the town of Mosul. Apparently multiple rounds fired into a dining hall right at the noon hour, which would obviously have been lunch time, with a very packed interior of that dining hall. We understand among the dead and injured, it is a combination of U.S. military casualties, the Iraqi national guard, and Iraqi civilians. Pentagon sources all giving us this information at this point.

We caution you, and unfortunately oftentimes in cases like these, these numbers do change, and more times than not the numbers climb as opposed to decrease. So when we get more on that front, we'll pass it along to you.

I want to get back to Ken Pollack right now. Ken, you've been listening for the past two 20 or so. Curious to know from your perspective if indeed the issue now is how many people participated in this election, and how many people view this as legitimate in the eyes of the Iraqi people? What is the purpose, ultimately, these elections will serve in trying to stabilize Iraq and push it forward in the momentum of progress?

KEN POLLACK, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, it's a great question, Bill. The administration's perspective on this is effectively that the biggest problem they have is that they can't get Iraqis to fight for reconstruction, and their thinking is that the reason they can't get Iraqis to fight for reconstruction is that because they don't feel like they've got a stake in the government, the government doesn't represent them. And so their hope is that the elections will make Iraqis feel like they do have a legitimate government, and be willing to fight for reconstruction.

But I got to say, I am very skeptical of that theory. Everything I see from Iraqis, everything I see on the ground, my own experiences in Iraq is that the problem there is not the legitimacy of the government. The problem is that the Iraqis do not believe that the United States knows what it's doing, and they basically are waiting to see if we are going to take care of these problems for them.

Iraq has, as a result of 30 years of Saddam Hussein's tyrannical misrule, become a very passive population. It's something that you notice immediately when you're out and about among Iraqis. They expect the government to do for them. And their feeling is the government, in this case the United States, has done nothing for them for 20 months. Way haven't secured the country. We've not restored basic services. We have not made their lives better, and that's the problem they have.

COSTELLO: You mention Saddam Hussein. He met with lawyers in recent days, and his lawyers then had a press conference, and they delivered essentially a message from Saddam Hussein to keep the resistance continuing on behalf of the insurgents in Iraq. It was a political message. It was a military message. Do you believe these attorneys will have the opportunity to meet with Saddam Hussein again in the next five weeks before this election happens?

POLLACK: Yes, you know, look, who the heck knows. The United States really isn't in control of that judicial system there, but the points you're raising are all excellent ones, which is that certainly in an American court proceeding, they would not be allowed to deliver that kind of a message from Saddam Hussein. And I think that in the case of Iraq, U.S. and our coalition allies really ought to be questioning whether those people ought to be allowed to meet with him again, or if they are, they should be effectively barred, effectively barred from delivering similar kinds of messages from Saddam. That clearly had nothing to do with his own -- with the status of his case, it had nothing to do with him as a defendant. There was absolutely no reason or rhyme for them to make that kind of a statement.

HEMMER: Discussions with some sources down at the CIA. It appears, at Langley anyway, that the conversation, and the focus, and the concentration in Iraq today has to do with the insurgents related to a Sunni Arab population, former Baathists, former loyalists Saddam Hussein, and very few on the percentage side in terms of foreign fighters. Is that still the mixture, and the combination that you believe is operating now on behalf of the insurgents?

POLLACK: Absolutely. We've captured large numbers of insurgents. And what is so striking is the tiny numbers of foreigners among them. Overwhelmingly, the insurgency is a Sunni Arab, Iraqi insurgency. And it is correct what you said that these are mostly former members of the regime. But I think it's important that we not get fixated on that term, because that's really not why they're fighting us. These people are not committed Baathists. I mean, I'll be honest with you, Bill, I don't know a single committed Baathist in the entire Arab world. Baathism as an ideology died out in the 1960s, and certainly Saddam Hussein never applied it as an ideology. It never even had the same kind of cache communism did in the late Soviet Union.

They're fighting us because they are members of the Sunni tribal community that effectively ruled over Iraq during Saddam regime that were the top dogs in Iraq, had all of the benefits, who now feel completely dispossessed and alienated from the political process and believe that the government that the United States is trying to create is trying to crush the Sunni population in the same manner that they oppressed their Shia brethren for 80 years.

HEMMER: You're going back to the 1920s. I want to hit on that topic a moment again here, Ken. Hang with me a second. Just want to let our viewers know. Nic Robertson will join me in a moment here from London. He's been to these U.S. military bases in Mosul that we're talking about.

And in case you're just joining us, this is what we know. 22 dead, 51 others injured. A combination of U.S. military, Iraqi national guard and Iraqi civilians at a dining hall, at a U.S. military base in Mosul in northern Iraq. Ken, back to your point. Is there a tipping point where the Sunnis feel so alienated that they believe they've arrived at a point where they must participate in order to ensure some sort of future for them? That would cause them to get involved in this election process, to secure themselves a seat at the political table? As opposed to what we saw 80 years ago, where the Shiites stayed away from this process and we saw what happened with them, the alienation that they experienced in Iraq over the past eight decades?

POLLACK: Yes, it's an interesting question. I don't know that I would say that there's necessarily a tipping point. I don't know that the rest of the country is saying we're going to participate, it's going to cause the Sunnis to be more willing to register -- that is, the Sunni tribal community. I certainly do think that there are ways that we could persuade the Sunni tribals to participate in a new government inside of Iraq, but it would mean taking a very different tact towards them.

It would mean reaching out to their tribal sheikhs, it would mean assuring them of different mechanisms within the government so that they will not be oppressed, it would mean a massive education campaign in the Sunni tribal community. I think if the United States were willing to undertake those things, I think we probably could bring the Sunnis around. But it will require, as I said, a very different approach from the U.S.

HEMMER: Thanks, Ken. Stand by with us on the telephone there. Ken Pollack there, also Elaine Quijano's at the Pentagon. Karl Penhaul is working the story in Baghdad, in the Iraqi capital. And Don Shepperd, our military analyst, on the phone, as well. We'll get back to all of them as this story continues to develop.. But again, here's Carol now.

COSTELLO: Yes, there's some interesting facts that I just received about Mosul. And you forget that Mosul is where Saddam Hussein's two sons were killed. Remember that during the war? That's where they were killed. Mosul is Iraq's third largest city and it has seen incessant violence for the past few weeks, as Sunni-Arab insurgents rattle the U.S.-trained police force in November.

And there has been speculation that Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the terrorist there, moved his operations from Falluja to Mosul. Don't know that for sure, of course, but they believe he's there. Don't know if he's behind this attack, either.

HEMMER: And there's also speculation that he could be in Baghdad at this point. And so much of that is ripe for speculation at this point because...

COSTELLO: It's amazing how well he can hide.

HEMMER: Indeed.

COSTELLO: He can hide. Also earlier on Tuesday, Iraqi police had repelled a new attack by insurgents on a Mosul police station. And there was also an attack on a bus there just a few days ago. Want to head live to the Pentagon to see if the administration is saying anything about this. Elaine Quijano is manning the post there. Good morning.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Carol. Well, the word that we are getting comes to us from Pentagon officials who again, just to recap, are saying that around 4:00 a.m. Eastern time, an unknown number of explosive rounds hit a dining hall. This, again, was near the town of Mosul. 22 people killed. We are told those are numbers that we're getting right now. 51 wounded. Again, this is a mixture of U.S. troops, Iraqi national guard and civilian contractors. We do not have a breakdown at this moment.

What we do have, though, a little bit more on Task Force Olympia. That is the U.S. army group responsible there. 10,000 U.S. troops, we are told, are within the Task Force Olympia group. Of that 10,000, there's a striker brigade, about 5,000 troops, from Fort Lewis, Washington. That really is the main military force there. The rest is support mostly from all over the U.S. military and this brigade replaced the previous striker brigade, we're told, about three months ago.

Now, we have to emphasize that even though this main group is from Fort Lewis, Washington, the other troops are -- the other personnel there are from really all over. But that is a little bit of the background on Task Force Olympia. Again, though, the reports we're getting, the numbers still that we're hearing, 22 people killed, 51 wounded -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Elaine Quijano live from the Pentagon. Again, 22 were killed, some of them U.S. troops, others Iraqi civilians and also members of the Iraqi security forces -- Bill.

HEMMER: Carol, want to get to (UNINTELLIGIBLE) right now. Nic Robertson has been at these bases in northern Iraq. Nic, hello to you there in London. How substantial is the U.S. military presence in Mosul?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INT'L CORRESPONDENT: Bill, it is substantial and it is spread out. And obviously at a time like this, when there have been a number of casualties, families of troops who know they're deployed in Mosul will be concerned. And the military will be concerned that there should be full notification for these families. But this attack does appear to have happened at one base. The striker brigade is spread out across the city of Mosul and a number of different bases. In fact, quite a few different bases within the city of Mosul.

What I remember from my time there about three or four weeks ago is that the base itself, the particular base I was at, is quite spread out. There were these occasional, sometimes daily, mortar or rocket attacks on the base. The timing of those attacks did sometimes seem to coincide with meal times. Perhaps late in the day, just as dusk was falling, when perhaps the insurgents were making the assumption that troops would be gathering together for the meal time part of the day. And again, we don't know which of these bases in Mosul was targeted. However, from my own experience at the base I spent a lot of time at, the dining facility there was a large tent-like structure. That is, it is not a hard structure. It does not have a hard roof. It is made of a soft material.

It has not been that particular camp that I was at, and again, I do have to stress, Bill, that we don't know which camp has been targeted. Or -- more details beyond that at this time. But as the troops would gather for the meal time of the day, three times a day, they would be collected in a facility that would have a -- essentially between them and any rockets or mortars coming in, a very thin layer of material, Bill.

HEMMER: And understanding and knowing and walking with some caution here, too, Nic, that we do not know which base this is. Based on your experience there, what is the surrounding area like? Is this perhaps an area where it's easily -- where you're able to hide just off side the military base? Or would you have to be quite a distance, maybe even a few miles away in order to carry off an attack like this?

ROBERTSON: Well, I spent some time talking with the troops about that. And this is one of the things, one of the issues that they've been trying to deal with, particularly the unit that I was with. There are areas that were quite close to their camp where they had been able to successfully patrol those areas and deny the insurgents the opportunity to base mortars or rockets within those particular areas.

They had identified other areas that they believed that they could be attacked from. Indeed, they were convinced that these were particular areas that the insurgents could use. They'd been going to make progress in patrolling those areas, in trying to -- in trying to deny, again, the insurgents, the access of that particular area.

But one of the problems one captain explained to me, he said, look, sometimes these insurgents will literally drive along the road, jump out of a car with a mortar, fire off two or three rounds in the mortar, throw it in the car, and drive off again. Obviously, any military tactician will know, any soldier will know, that firing a mortar in that manner is a very inaccurate way of firing it. A mortar needs to be -- have rounds fired and where those rounds land, calculate and then fed back in so they can be fired more accurately.

But one of the problems that the troops there do face is the fact that the insurgents will literally jump out of a vehicle, fire off a few rounds from a mortar, jump back in and drive off. It makes defeating them very difficult. But in the areas they're located, they have been able to stop them to some degree.

HEMMER: Let me push my luck here. Camp Merez, M-E-R-E-Z, that's what the Pentagon's saying. Does that ring a bell, Nic?

ROBERTSON: That does. That's not the camp that I'm most familiar with in Mosul, Bill, but that is, I believe, a camp in that area. There are, as I say, a number. I'd like to check the spelling on that camp to see further.

HEMMER: Sure. Will do. Nic, good work there. Thanks. Nic Robertson from London, recently back from Iraq. And again, in that part of the country that we are talking about today with this incident breaking here on CNN just about an hour ago -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Yes. 22 people killed in some kind of attack on a U.S. dining hall at a military base in Mosul, Iraq, in the northern part of Iraq. Of course, Daryn Kagan and Tony Harris will have much more on this from Atlanta. Good morning.

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