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American Morning
Iraq Elections; '90-Second Pop'; 'New You Revolution'
Aired January 25, 2005 - 07:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome back everybody. It's just about half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
As the Iraq elections draw closer, we are learning more about the specific role that U.S. troops will play. Barbara Starr is going to join us in just a few moments, explaining how Americans will be deployed and what kind of danger they will face. She also takes a look at the larger question of when they might come home.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: On a much different topic, a much lighter one, too, it will not be long before we find out which stars are nominated for this year's Academy Awards. Leonardo DiCaprio is getting some early buzz for "The Aviator." So, too, is that film and its director, Martin Scorsese. We'll see if the gang at "90-Second Pop" agrees with that or not. That's coming up in a moment here.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Well, you know, have you heard the beautiful man syndrome at the Oscars?
O'BRIEN: No.
COSTELLO: Usually, beautiful men do not win Oscars, because, you know, the people who vote are old guy whose are jealous.
O'BRIEN: Jealous.
COSTELLO: That's true. Paul Newman didn't win his first Oscar until he was 62 years old.
O'BRIEN: So Scorsese would be a beautiful man they don't...
HEMMER: But, you know, what the Academy loves?
COSTELLO: No, no, only the young stars.
O'BRIEN: Oh, I get it.
HEMMER: They love a beautiful woman to dress down and play a real rough and tumble role, like Charlize Theron and Hilary Swank.
O'BRIEN: And gain 30 pounds.
COSTELLO: Right. Either that or they like them to play prostitutes. That seems to be a big hit with the Oscar voters.
HEMMER: That's what Theron did. That's right. Good morning. COSTELLO: Good morning to you. Good morning, everyone.
Let's get a check of the headlines now. "Now in the News."
Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says Iraq has to build up its own security forces before there can be talk of a U.S. withdrawal. Speaking two hours ago in Baghdad, Allawi refused to set a deadline for when U.S. forces would leave Iraq. Allawi said following Sunday's election, he will focus on strengthening Iraqi forces so some multinational troops can be withdrawn.
Here in the United States, some Senate Republicans are expressing full confidence that secretary of state nominee Condoleezza Rice will win confirmation tomorrow. Today, the Senate is scheduled to debate her nomination. Some Democrats had delayed her confirmation on Inauguration Day. The war in Iraq is expected to be the focus of today's debate.
Out in California, authorities are looking into who may have leaked details about the charges against pop star Michael Jackson. ABC News recently quoted grand jury testimony from the boy accusing Jackson of sexual abuse; this, despite a sweeping gag order in the case. The sheriff's investigator's office has denied any involvement in the leak.
And a major donation from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and his wife. The Gates Foundation has pledged $750 million to vaccinate children throughout the developing world. The money will be distributed over the next 10 years. It is one of the largest donations ever given.
O'BRIEN: Wow! I mean, he's got a lot of money, but he gives a lot of money. Good for him.
COSTELLO: He does.
O'BRIEN: All right, Carol, thank you.
Violence continues in Iraq. Gunmen killed a high-ranking judge in a drive-by shooting this morning, and six American soldiers died in Iraq last night. As U.S. forces prepare for the elections just five days from now, questions are also on what the next phase in Iraq will hold.
Barbara Starr is at the Pentagon for us this morning.
Hey, Barbara, good morning.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Soledad.
Well, the plan for Election Day is this: Iraqi forces will take charge of security around the polling places. U.S. forces will be in a backup role if they are needed.
But, indeed, as every prediction is that the violence will continue in Iraq, U.S. forces are already working on plans for the next phase.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
STARR (voice over): As the violence continues just days before the election, the U.S. military is now stepping up efforts to improve the Iraqi security forces' capability to fight for their country. Key to the plan? U.S. military and police advisory teams will be attached directly to Iraqi units to fight the insurgency together. One potential option planners are considering?
BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, DEP. DIR., U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: The numbers that we have been working with are somewhere in the order 200 to 250 of these teams and roughly 10 men per team. So, we're talking in total somewhere between 2,200 and 2,700 personnel involved in this process.
STARR: The hope is by making U.S. troops part of Iraqi units, it will increase the Iraqis' confidence. One key advantage? The U.S. will bring along its own firepower.
KIMMITT: If necessary, if the unit needs it, they can bring in artillery support. They can call in for close-air support.
STARR: Officials say the plan is absolutely not the beginning of a strategy to withdraw from combat in favor of training, and that the Iraqis privately tell the Americans they want the U.S. to stay. The U.S. and Iraqis say they still plan to win against the insurgency.
KIMMITT: It won't be black, white, win, lose. First of all, we will not lose. It will be more of a gradual process. We will know that we have achieved the military requirements in Iraq when the Iraqi security forces are capable of taking on all the internal and external security needs for their country.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: But, Soledad, General Kimmitt, while emphasizing that it's all a gradual process that will evolve as the security situation unfolds, back here at the Pentagon, top Army officials are saying they are prepared to send -- keep, excuse me, 120,000 troops, Army soldiers, in Iraq for the next two years if the security situation requires it -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us this morning. Barbara, thanks -- Bill.
HEMMER: Well, Soledad, we talked about the fallout from the blizzard.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: Welcome back, everybody.
Just about an hour away now, the Academy Award nominations are announced. A special version of "90-Second Pop." The predictions are ready to go. So too is the prince of urban populism. His name is Toure.
Good morning to you. Nice to see you. Nice red today (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
TOURE, CNN POP CULTURE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there you go.
HEMMER: Jessica Shaw from "Entertainment Weekly."
Jessica, good morning to you.
JESSICA SHAW, "ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY": Good morning.
HEMMER: And a pop newcomer, Devin Gordon, senior writer at "Newsweek."
Welcome. Nice to have you along with us today.
DEVIN GORDON, SENIOR WRITER, "NEWSWEEK": Thank you. Thanks for having me.
HEMMER: Kick us off. Best picture is what?
TOURE: I have no idea. I'm on pins and needles over here.
HEMMER: Really?
TOURE: I mean, OK, there are only five slots, people. You've got to have "Aviator," "Sideways," "Million Dollar Baby." Put it in the bank, that's done. There's a whole ton of other pictures that could get in there. "Ray," "Finding Neverland," "Hotel Rwanda," "The Incredibles," "The Passion of the Christ" and...
HEMMER: But you're here for a reason.
TOURE: ... and...
HEMMER: You have to make a decision.
TOURE: ... "Fahrenheit 9/11." There are too many pictures in contention for this thing. Somebody is going to be upset after the nomination comes back.
HEMMER: Devin, do you agree with that?
GORDON: I think "Ray" is going to be in, and here is why. Because you've got to have a movie that people have actually seen in the best five category. I mean, there's about three or four movies that are out there, but none of these movies have gotten to theaters in most of America. "Ray" is the only one people have actually seen. And I think that they need something to drive up ratings a little bit.
SHAW: I think a movie like "The Incredibles" really does deserve to be in it, but animation is such a tough sell. Brad Bird, the director, he might get a little nod, because there's always one slot that, like, the director doesn't match best actor. So he might get it though. TOURE: If there is justice in the world, "The Incredibles" will get that nomination.
SHAW: Absolutely.
GORDON: They've got their own category now. They made it three years ago just for this kind of situation. They've got their own category. It's only going to be real people.
HEMMER: So, what happens to the most talked-about film of the year, "The Passion of the Christ?"
SHAW: It wasn't a best picture. That will definitely -- I think that does not have a chance in hell of getting a nomination.
TOURE: And you know what? It was -- it came out a long time ago. And, you know, Hollywood people are not conscience people. So that may slip through the cracks.
HEMMER: And so did "Eternal Sunshine," too, it came out more than a year ago.
SHAW: Right. Which is the only movie that does deserve to get it.
GORDON: Yes, the only classic movie that came out this year, and it's not going to get it.
HEMMER: Let's talk about best actor then. A strong year for men?
SHAW: Yes.
HEMMER: What do you like?
SHAW: A strong year for men, but not so strong for women. It doesn't really matter who is nominated, because these two -- excuse me -- these two races are a lock. Best actor, you'll have Clint Eastwood, Johnny Depp, Leo DiCaprio, maybe Javier Bardem. But it's going to go to Jamie Foxx, for "Ray." No question about it. He has already won the award.
HEMMER: Devin, do you agree with all of this?
GORDON: Absolutely.
TOURE: If Jamie Foxx doesn't win best actor, black people will be rioting in the streets, right?
SHAW: Exactly.
HEMMER: Oh, what...
GORDON: He's going to have to push somebody in front of a bus to lose.
HEMMER: What did Chris Rock say? He's walking off the stage if Jamie Foxx doesn't win?
TOURE: No, no. He will steal somebody else's Oscar and give it to Jamie.
SHAW: Right.
HEMMER: How about the women? Is it all about Hilary Swank? Is she the one to beat?
SHAW: It is all about Hilary Swank. Annette Bening will get it. You know, Kate Winslet. There are people that, sure, we're going to see them up there, but...
HEMMER: They'll get the nomination.
SHAW: They'll get the nomination, but...
HEMMER: But who wins?
SHAW: Hilary Swank, no question about it. This is her year. And, interestingly, if she does win, she will be the second youngest woman to have two best actress awards, second only to Jody Foster.
GORDON: See, that's why I think there might be a little crack in the door. I'm just not sure if people are ready to put Hilary Swank in that category. There are only 10 or 11 women all time who have won best actress Oscars. Is Hilary Swank really in that crew just yet? She's a great actress. But I can see someone like Annette Bening sneaking in. I can even see Melba Staunton (ph).
HEMMER: She's 30, right, 30 years old?
GORDON: Yes.
HEMMER: And she won her first Oscar six years ago, when she was about 24 or 25?
GORDON: Five or six years ago, yes, yes.
TOURE: Oh, you're talking about people seeing the movies. I'm not sure even Warren Beatty has seen "Being Julia." So, I don't know about Annette Bening.
HEMMER: Well, your theory is that the Golden Globe ratings were so low because so few people have seen most of these movies.
GORDON: Yes, I think that as part of it. But I also think going against "Desperate Housewives" is tough nowadays. But, you know, and the fact that nobody's seen those movies really did hurt. I mean, people had a little bit more time come Oscar time. But "Ray" is the only one of the major candidates that has a good shot of getting it that a lot of people have seen.
HEMMER: What about surprises?
GORDON: Surprises? Well, I think Clint Eastwood is going to get in for best actor, which is something that didn't happen at the Golden Globes. I think Maria Catalina Sandino from "Maria Full of Grace" could get in there. I think that's going to be a big surprise. And I think there's going to be a surprise in the director category. It might be a foreign filmmaker, like Zonia Moe (ph) or maybe Brad Bird like you were saying.
HEMMER: So, you're still ticking off films that nobody has seen.
GORDON: Yes, I know. But somebody has got to get them.
SHAW: The director race will be interesting this year, because I think it will come down to Eastwood versus Scorsese. Scorsese nominated four times, never won. Clint Eastwood has won. It might be Scorsese's year this year.
GORDON: And has lost three times to an actor. I'm sure that doesn't make him very happy.
HEMMER: Toure, final word?
TOURE: It's got to be "Million Dollar Baby's" year. Got to be.
HEMMER: You came out here a month ago and said...
TOURE: The Oscar race is over.
HEMMER: It's over. I've seen the film of the year.
TOURE: There we go.
HEMMER: We'll talk to you guys later this morning to let you know if your predictions are true or not.
SHAW: Absolutely.
HEMMER: Devin, Jessica, good to see you. Toure, talk to you later this morning.
TOURE: All right.
HEMMER: Here's Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Here's a related question: What's an Oscar nomination worth in cold, hard cash? Andy is "Minding Your Business." He's going to take a look at that.
Plus, resolutions, of course, are always tough to keep. So, just how is Reverend Leigh Ann Raynor keeping up? It's week two of the "New You Revolution." A look at that's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Here's a question for you. Just how much does an Academy Award nomination mean for a movie at the box office? Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" this morning.
Good morning.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning to you.
You know, one thing that wasn't brought up in that "90-Second Pop" segment, I don't think it was a such a great year for movies, do you? I mean, overall, there weren't a lot of huge...
HEMMER: There wasn't a blockbuster...
SERWER: ... momentous...
HEMMER: ... which is...
SERWER: Yes.
HEMMER: Which is what is they talked about with the Golden Globes not getting a lot of ratings and a lot of viewership.
SERWER: Right.
HEMMER: Because a lot of these movies are small.
SERWER: Small, right.
HEMMER: Small distribution, and not a lot of folks have seen them just yet.
SERWER: Right. And maybe that has something to do with the reason that these nominations aren't worth that much. I mean, when you start to break it down, a best picture nomination is worth a little bit here, $11 million. I mean, this isn't peanuts, but in the movie business it's not huge amounts of money, $11 million. Best actor and best actress, $1 million.
The real money comes if you get the actual Oscar. For instance, a best picture Oscar is worth tens of millions of dollars for a film, upwards of 20 percent more at the box office. So, of course, it really depends on how much you get to begin.
There's a guy up at Colby College in Waterville, Maine, Randy Nelson, who crunches these numbers. I guess it's a very long winter up there, Randy, for you doing all of this kind of stuff.
O'BRIEN: It is a long winter and cold at times.
SERWER: Yes, it really is. So, interesting stuff. And, of course, we'll be tracking it more this morning.
O'BRIEN: All right, Andy, thanks.
SERWER: You're welcome.
HEMMER: Back to Jack now and the "Question of the Day."
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: It's about smoking, Bill. Four employees of a Michigan health benefits company have been fired for refusing to take a test that would determine if they smoke cigarettes. The company instituted a policy January 1. It makes it a firing offense to smoke, even after hours or at home.
The Weyco (ph) founder, Howard Wire (ph), said he instituted the policy to protect his company from high health care costs. Since Michigan doesn't have strict smokers' rights laws, the company's mandate is legal.
The question is this: Do companies have the right to fire employees for smoking?
K.L. in New York writes: "Aside from health, what about the fact that employees who smoke are constantly taking breaks to get their fix? What does that do to productivity?"
That wasn't the question, K.L. The question is: Should you be fired for smoking?
SERWER: That's (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
CAFFERTY: Please try to stick to the subject at hand, here.
SERWER: Yes.
HEMMER: Go back to your laptop.
CAFFERTY: Yes, go back to the computer and write to somebody else.
Sharon in Rockford, Illinois: "Since obesity is now rivaling smoking as a leading killer, perhaps we should demand fat people stop eating."
There's an idea.
Paul in Hellertown, Pennsylvania: "If health and health costs are the issues, then perhaps companies ought to review the consequences on health due to their downsizing, expecting more for less, longer hours."
The question, Paul, is about smoking.
Sherry in Pella, Iowa writes...
SERWER: What's the matter with them?
CAFFERTY: Pella is where they have the tulip festival very spring in Iowa.
O'BRIEN: Really?
CAFFERTY: It's 40 miles north of Des Moines. They scrub the streets by hand with soap and water, with brooms. The kids get out there. I mean, it's the cleanest place I've ever been.
SERWER: But that's not the question. CAFFERTY: That's not the question, but I'm telling a story about this tulip festival.
SERWER: Sorry.
CAFFERTY: Sherry writes: "I support the company that fired the questionable employees' refusing to be tested for smoking. The nonsmoking public has been forced to pay for the health issues caused by smoking and second-hand smoke for far too long."
And Rich in New York writes: "Only if they're smoking crack."
SERWER: Yes.
CAFFERTY: "Otherwise, people should mind their own business. If they're going to monitor me 24/7, then technically I'm on the clock 24/7 and I should be paid as such."
SERWER: Oh, that's a good comeback.
HEMMER: Now that was the question.
SERWER: Right, that was the question.
HEMMER: Well done.
SERWER: One out of five, right?
HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Tulip festival.
O'BRIEN: Thank you. Where did that come from?
CAFFERTY: It's very cool, actually.
SERWER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: I've never seen it.
CAFFERTY: Great restaurants, family-style cooking.
SERWER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: We will talk about it more.
CAFFERTY: They still working in Iowa.
O'BRIEN: Oh.
(CROSSTALK)
CAFFERTY: How much time do you have? I'll till tell you stories about Iowa.
O'BRIEN: We have a lifetime, Jack. CAFFERTY: Yes, we do.
O'BRIEN: You and me together. We certainly do. But right now, we're actually going to go to the break.
CAFFERTY: It sure seems like it some mornings.
O'BRIEN: The "New You Revolution" continues. How tough is the Reverend Leigh Ann Raynor? Find out whether she's still with the program or if she's thrown in the towel up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: It's week two of our "New You Revolution." I always want to call it resolution, which was the name last year.
HEMMER: That was last year.
SERWER: But now it's a revolution. We're helping five folks break some bad health habits.
HEMMER: Every Tuesday morning, Sanjay joins us, checks up on their progress or lack thereof. He's at the CNN center.
How are you, doc? Good morning.
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good morning, Bill and Soledad.
The first week of the "New You Revolution" was busy one for all of our participants. They had a cooking class. We got them in the gym for a morning. It was all designed to get everyone off to a good start, but especially for the Reverend Leigh Ann Raynor.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And inhale. And she goes down!
LEIGH ANN RAYNOR, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: I did that well, don't you think?
GUPTA (voice over): She's the reverend. She's almost 50, and she's ready to make a "New You Revolution."
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Lift the hips up.
RAYNOR: That's as far as my hip goes, sweety. I'm finding muscles I had forgotten I had.
GUPTA: No surprise to her that she isn't as limber as she used to be.
RAYNOR: It's difficult because I'm one of the most competitive people I know.
GUPTA: But she does have a key ingredient: determination. (on camera): So, how are you feeling?
RAYNOR: I feel great.
GUPTA: Yes? No problems at all? Not overdoing it?
RAYNOR: No.
GUPTA (voice over): It's important, because six months ago she had successful heart surgery. Now she watches closely for warning signs.
RAYNOR: Chest pains, dizziness, shortness of breath, because other than that, your only warning sign is sudden cardiac death.
GUPTA: So we're going slow. No more than three miles an hour for now and some mild resistance training. Of course, hand in hand with the exercise comes diet. So we took Leigh Ann and the others to cooking school.
(on camera): Where do you hope to be eight weeks from now?
RAYNOR: Eight weeks from now, I hope to have learned some cooking techniques.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: When you cook your own food, it's always going to taste better and going to be -- it is!
GUPTA: Have you tasted her cooking?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Have you?
GUPTA: No.
(voice over): But Leigh Ann surprised even herself by cooking her first meal ever for someone else. She made chicken, and along with some healthy mac and cheese and a salad, this meal is filling, and just 500 calories.
With exercise, diet and good old-fashioned willpower, the reverend is well on her way.
RAYNOR: Wish me luck. I'm going to work at it.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA: There she is. And our other participants have also had some ups and downs in the first week. Here's their weekly checkup.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA (voice over): For Thekla, the "New You Revolution" is about learning.
THEKLA FISCHER, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: It's teaching me where I've got work to do. GUPTA: From which areas to strengthen to which foods are best.
Dr. Lisa Missoulu (ph), author of "Before Your Pregnancy," arrived with some useful lessons.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Women under 35 and particularly between 30 and 35, have about an 85 percent chance of getting pregnant if they try for 12 cycles or one year.
GUPTA: And to dispel some myths.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Whether you've never been on the pill, on it for 2 years or 10 years, you'll actually get the same ability to be pregnant after that's done.
GUPTA: One week into his "New You Revolution" and already a minor hitch for Jonathan. The doctor's prescription for ending his nail-biting habit: self-monitoring. And the best way?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because you need to save the nails.
JONATHAN KARP, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: If anybody found out, I'd be a certified whack job. It's a good idea, but I wouldn't do it.
GUPTA: Jonathan did agree to the backup plan: Keep a log of how much he bites every day and to reduce stress which may be fueling his habit. He'll try relaxation techniques to keep the biting at bay.
SANDRA GARTH, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: I'm ready. I've committed to do it, and I'm going to do it.
GUPTA: She sure is. Sandra's first week of the "New You Revolution" included some tips from the experts at a cooking school. Out? French toast dripping in syrup. In? Healthy French toast covered in yogurt and fruit.
Even after she went home and the cameras went away, Sandra has been sticking to her plan. Resistance training with her exercise bands and walking and walking. Using her step meter, she's been going about the 10,000 steps recommended by her trainer.
And she's cut back on her food intake. But her nutritionist is telling her to eat more, 1,600 calories a day.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
And next week, we're focusing on Harald, who admits he's addicted to running and he's doing lots of it. The problem is, he's also addicted to food. So is he starting to break those bad habits? We'll ask him.
For now, here are take-home tips for you as well. All of this we learned from week one. Firs of all, don't skip meals, especially if you're going to exercise. It's really important. Find low-calorie versions of your favorite recipes. And wear a pedometer or a step meter so you know when you've taken 10,000 steps. It really seems to help, Bill and Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Good advice. All right, Sanjay, thanks.
GUPTA: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: You know, our fingers are crossed for them.
HEMMER: It's early.
O'BRIEN: It's week two. It's hard.
HEMMER: Seven more weeks to go.
O'BRIEN: Yes, I think they're going to do it.
HEMMER: Thank you, Sanjay.
GUPTA: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Sanjay.
HEMMER: Yes. In a moment here, we're going to get you back to Baghdad. Five days now until the elections on Sunday in that country. The violence is expected to escalate. Now there is word about an American hostage. Christiane Amanpour is live in Baghdad in a moment, top of the hour here on AMERICAN MORNING.
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Aired January 25, 2005 - 07:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome back everybody. It's just about half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
As the Iraq elections draw closer, we are learning more about the specific role that U.S. troops will play. Barbara Starr is going to join us in just a few moments, explaining how Americans will be deployed and what kind of danger they will face. She also takes a look at the larger question of when they might come home.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: On a much different topic, a much lighter one, too, it will not be long before we find out which stars are nominated for this year's Academy Awards. Leonardo DiCaprio is getting some early buzz for "The Aviator." So, too, is that film and its director, Martin Scorsese. We'll see if the gang at "90-Second Pop" agrees with that or not. That's coming up in a moment here.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Well, you know, have you heard the beautiful man syndrome at the Oscars?
O'BRIEN: No.
COSTELLO: Usually, beautiful men do not win Oscars, because, you know, the people who vote are old guy whose are jealous.
O'BRIEN: Jealous.
COSTELLO: That's true. Paul Newman didn't win his first Oscar until he was 62 years old.
O'BRIEN: So Scorsese would be a beautiful man they don't...
HEMMER: But, you know, what the Academy loves?
COSTELLO: No, no, only the young stars.
O'BRIEN: Oh, I get it.
HEMMER: They love a beautiful woman to dress down and play a real rough and tumble role, like Charlize Theron and Hilary Swank.
O'BRIEN: And gain 30 pounds.
COSTELLO: Right. Either that or they like them to play prostitutes. That seems to be a big hit with the Oscar voters.
HEMMER: That's what Theron did. That's right. Good morning. COSTELLO: Good morning to you. Good morning, everyone.
Let's get a check of the headlines now. "Now in the News."
Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, says Iraq has to build up its own security forces before there can be talk of a U.S. withdrawal. Speaking two hours ago in Baghdad, Allawi refused to set a deadline for when U.S. forces would leave Iraq. Allawi said following Sunday's election, he will focus on strengthening Iraqi forces so some multinational troops can be withdrawn.
Here in the United States, some Senate Republicans are expressing full confidence that secretary of state nominee Condoleezza Rice will win confirmation tomorrow. Today, the Senate is scheduled to debate her nomination. Some Democrats had delayed her confirmation on Inauguration Day. The war in Iraq is expected to be the focus of today's debate.
Out in California, authorities are looking into who may have leaked details about the charges against pop star Michael Jackson. ABC News recently quoted grand jury testimony from the boy accusing Jackson of sexual abuse; this, despite a sweeping gag order in the case. The sheriff's investigator's office has denied any involvement in the leak.
And a major donation from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and his wife. The Gates Foundation has pledged $750 million to vaccinate children throughout the developing world. The money will be distributed over the next 10 years. It is one of the largest donations ever given.
O'BRIEN: Wow! I mean, he's got a lot of money, but he gives a lot of money. Good for him.
COSTELLO: He does.
O'BRIEN: All right, Carol, thank you.
Violence continues in Iraq. Gunmen killed a high-ranking judge in a drive-by shooting this morning, and six American soldiers died in Iraq last night. As U.S. forces prepare for the elections just five days from now, questions are also on what the next phase in Iraq will hold.
Barbara Starr is at the Pentagon for us this morning.
Hey, Barbara, good morning.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Soledad.
Well, the plan for Election Day is this: Iraqi forces will take charge of security around the polling places. U.S. forces will be in a backup role if they are needed.
But, indeed, as every prediction is that the violence will continue in Iraq, U.S. forces are already working on plans for the next phase.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
STARR (voice over): As the violence continues just days before the election, the U.S. military is now stepping up efforts to improve the Iraqi security forces' capability to fight for their country. Key to the plan? U.S. military and police advisory teams will be attached directly to Iraqi units to fight the insurgency together. One potential option planners are considering?
BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, DEP. DIR., U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: The numbers that we have been working with are somewhere in the order 200 to 250 of these teams and roughly 10 men per team. So, we're talking in total somewhere between 2,200 and 2,700 personnel involved in this process.
STARR: The hope is by making U.S. troops part of Iraqi units, it will increase the Iraqis' confidence. One key advantage? The U.S. will bring along its own firepower.
KIMMITT: If necessary, if the unit needs it, they can bring in artillery support. They can call in for close-air support.
STARR: Officials say the plan is absolutely not the beginning of a strategy to withdraw from combat in favor of training, and that the Iraqis privately tell the Americans they want the U.S. to stay. The U.S. and Iraqis say they still plan to win against the insurgency.
KIMMITT: It won't be black, white, win, lose. First of all, we will not lose. It will be more of a gradual process. We will know that we have achieved the military requirements in Iraq when the Iraqi security forces are capable of taking on all the internal and external security needs for their country.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: But, Soledad, General Kimmitt, while emphasizing that it's all a gradual process that will evolve as the security situation unfolds, back here at the Pentagon, top Army officials are saying they are prepared to send -- keep, excuse me, 120,000 troops, Army soldiers, in Iraq for the next two years if the security situation requires it -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us this morning. Barbara, thanks -- Bill.
HEMMER: Well, Soledad, we talked about the fallout from the blizzard.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: Welcome back, everybody.
Just about an hour away now, the Academy Award nominations are announced. A special version of "90-Second Pop." The predictions are ready to go. So too is the prince of urban populism. His name is Toure.
Good morning to you. Nice to see you. Nice red today (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
TOURE, CNN POP CULTURE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there you go.
HEMMER: Jessica Shaw from "Entertainment Weekly."
Jessica, good morning to you.
JESSICA SHAW, "ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY": Good morning.
HEMMER: And a pop newcomer, Devin Gordon, senior writer at "Newsweek."
Welcome. Nice to have you along with us today.
DEVIN GORDON, SENIOR WRITER, "NEWSWEEK": Thank you. Thanks for having me.
HEMMER: Kick us off. Best picture is what?
TOURE: I have no idea. I'm on pins and needles over here.
HEMMER: Really?
TOURE: I mean, OK, there are only five slots, people. You've got to have "Aviator," "Sideways," "Million Dollar Baby." Put it in the bank, that's done. There's a whole ton of other pictures that could get in there. "Ray," "Finding Neverland," "Hotel Rwanda," "The Incredibles," "The Passion of the Christ" and...
HEMMER: But you're here for a reason.
TOURE: ... and...
HEMMER: You have to make a decision.
TOURE: ... "Fahrenheit 9/11." There are too many pictures in contention for this thing. Somebody is going to be upset after the nomination comes back.
HEMMER: Devin, do you agree with that?
GORDON: I think "Ray" is going to be in, and here is why. Because you've got to have a movie that people have actually seen in the best five category. I mean, there's about three or four movies that are out there, but none of these movies have gotten to theaters in most of America. "Ray" is the only one people have actually seen. And I think that they need something to drive up ratings a little bit.
SHAW: I think a movie like "The Incredibles" really does deserve to be in it, but animation is such a tough sell. Brad Bird, the director, he might get a little nod, because there's always one slot that, like, the director doesn't match best actor. So he might get it though. TOURE: If there is justice in the world, "The Incredibles" will get that nomination.
SHAW: Absolutely.
GORDON: They've got their own category now. They made it three years ago just for this kind of situation. They've got their own category. It's only going to be real people.
HEMMER: So, what happens to the most talked-about film of the year, "The Passion of the Christ?"
SHAW: It wasn't a best picture. That will definitely -- I think that does not have a chance in hell of getting a nomination.
TOURE: And you know what? It was -- it came out a long time ago. And, you know, Hollywood people are not conscience people. So that may slip through the cracks.
HEMMER: And so did "Eternal Sunshine," too, it came out more than a year ago.
SHAW: Right. Which is the only movie that does deserve to get it.
GORDON: Yes, the only classic movie that came out this year, and it's not going to get it.
HEMMER: Let's talk about best actor then. A strong year for men?
SHAW: Yes.
HEMMER: What do you like?
SHAW: A strong year for men, but not so strong for women. It doesn't really matter who is nominated, because these two -- excuse me -- these two races are a lock. Best actor, you'll have Clint Eastwood, Johnny Depp, Leo DiCaprio, maybe Javier Bardem. But it's going to go to Jamie Foxx, for "Ray." No question about it. He has already won the award.
HEMMER: Devin, do you agree with all of this?
GORDON: Absolutely.
TOURE: If Jamie Foxx doesn't win best actor, black people will be rioting in the streets, right?
SHAW: Exactly.
HEMMER: Oh, what...
GORDON: He's going to have to push somebody in front of a bus to lose.
HEMMER: What did Chris Rock say? He's walking off the stage if Jamie Foxx doesn't win?
TOURE: No, no. He will steal somebody else's Oscar and give it to Jamie.
SHAW: Right.
HEMMER: How about the women? Is it all about Hilary Swank? Is she the one to beat?
SHAW: It is all about Hilary Swank. Annette Bening will get it. You know, Kate Winslet. There are people that, sure, we're going to see them up there, but...
HEMMER: They'll get the nomination.
SHAW: They'll get the nomination, but...
HEMMER: But who wins?
SHAW: Hilary Swank, no question about it. This is her year. And, interestingly, if she does win, she will be the second youngest woman to have two best actress awards, second only to Jody Foster.
GORDON: See, that's why I think there might be a little crack in the door. I'm just not sure if people are ready to put Hilary Swank in that category. There are only 10 or 11 women all time who have won best actress Oscars. Is Hilary Swank really in that crew just yet? She's a great actress. But I can see someone like Annette Bening sneaking in. I can even see Melba Staunton (ph).
HEMMER: She's 30, right, 30 years old?
GORDON: Yes.
HEMMER: And she won her first Oscar six years ago, when she was about 24 or 25?
GORDON: Five or six years ago, yes, yes.
TOURE: Oh, you're talking about people seeing the movies. I'm not sure even Warren Beatty has seen "Being Julia." So, I don't know about Annette Bening.
HEMMER: Well, your theory is that the Golden Globe ratings were so low because so few people have seen most of these movies.
GORDON: Yes, I think that as part of it. But I also think going against "Desperate Housewives" is tough nowadays. But, you know, and the fact that nobody's seen those movies really did hurt. I mean, people had a little bit more time come Oscar time. But "Ray" is the only one of the major candidates that has a good shot of getting it that a lot of people have seen.
HEMMER: What about surprises?
GORDON: Surprises? Well, I think Clint Eastwood is going to get in for best actor, which is something that didn't happen at the Golden Globes. I think Maria Catalina Sandino from "Maria Full of Grace" could get in there. I think that's going to be a big surprise. And I think there's going to be a surprise in the director category. It might be a foreign filmmaker, like Zonia Moe (ph) or maybe Brad Bird like you were saying.
HEMMER: So, you're still ticking off films that nobody has seen.
GORDON: Yes, I know. But somebody has got to get them.
SHAW: The director race will be interesting this year, because I think it will come down to Eastwood versus Scorsese. Scorsese nominated four times, never won. Clint Eastwood has won. It might be Scorsese's year this year.
GORDON: And has lost three times to an actor. I'm sure that doesn't make him very happy.
HEMMER: Toure, final word?
TOURE: It's got to be "Million Dollar Baby's" year. Got to be.
HEMMER: You came out here a month ago and said...
TOURE: The Oscar race is over.
HEMMER: It's over. I've seen the film of the year.
TOURE: There we go.
HEMMER: We'll talk to you guys later this morning to let you know if your predictions are true or not.
SHAW: Absolutely.
HEMMER: Devin, Jessica, good to see you. Toure, talk to you later this morning.
TOURE: All right.
HEMMER: Here's Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Here's a related question: What's an Oscar nomination worth in cold, hard cash? Andy is "Minding Your Business." He's going to take a look at that.
Plus, resolutions, of course, are always tough to keep. So, just how is Reverend Leigh Ann Raynor keeping up? It's week two of the "New You Revolution." A look at that's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Here's a question for you. Just how much does an Academy Award nomination mean for a movie at the box office? Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" this morning.
Good morning.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning to you.
You know, one thing that wasn't brought up in that "90-Second Pop" segment, I don't think it was a such a great year for movies, do you? I mean, overall, there weren't a lot of huge...
HEMMER: There wasn't a blockbuster...
SERWER: ... momentous...
HEMMER: ... which is...
SERWER: Yes.
HEMMER: Which is what is they talked about with the Golden Globes not getting a lot of ratings and a lot of viewership.
SERWER: Right.
HEMMER: Because a lot of these movies are small.
SERWER: Small, right.
HEMMER: Small distribution, and not a lot of folks have seen them just yet.
SERWER: Right. And maybe that has something to do with the reason that these nominations aren't worth that much. I mean, when you start to break it down, a best picture nomination is worth a little bit here, $11 million. I mean, this isn't peanuts, but in the movie business it's not huge amounts of money, $11 million. Best actor and best actress, $1 million.
The real money comes if you get the actual Oscar. For instance, a best picture Oscar is worth tens of millions of dollars for a film, upwards of 20 percent more at the box office. So, of course, it really depends on how much you get to begin.
There's a guy up at Colby College in Waterville, Maine, Randy Nelson, who crunches these numbers. I guess it's a very long winter up there, Randy, for you doing all of this kind of stuff.
O'BRIEN: It is a long winter and cold at times.
SERWER: Yes, it really is. So, interesting stuff. And, of course, we'll be tracking it more this morning.
O'BRIEN: All right, Andy, thanks.
SERWER: You're welcome.
HEMMER: Back to Jack now and the "Question of the Day."
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: It's about smoking, Bill. Four employees of a Michigan health benefits company have been fired for refusing to take a test that would determine if they smoke cigarettes. The company instituted a policy January 1. It makes it a firing offense to smoke, even after hours or at home.
The Weyco (ph) founder, Howard Wire (ph), said he instituted the policy to protect his company from high health care costs. Since Michigan doesn't have strict smokers' rights laws, the company's mandate is legal.
The question is this: Do companies have the right to fire employees for smoking?
K.L. in New York writes: "Aside from health, what about the fact that employees who smoke are constantly taking breaks to get their fix? What does that do to productivity?"
That wasn't the question, K.L. The question is: Should you be fired for smoking?
SERWER: That's (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
CAFFERTY: Please try to stick to the subject at hand, here.
SERWER: Yes.
HEMMER: Go back to your laptop.
CAFFERTY: Yes, go back to the computer and write to somebody else.
Sharon in Rockford, Illinois: "Since obesity is now rivaling smoking as a leading killer, perhaps we should demand fat people stop eating."
There's an idea.
Paul in Hellertown, Pennsylvania: "If health and health costs are the issues, then perhaps companies ought to review the consequences on health due to their downsizing, expecting more for less, longer hours."
The question, Paul, is about smoking.
Sherry in Pella, Iowa writes...
SERWER: What's the matter with them?
CAFFERTY: Pella is where they have the tulip festival very spring in Iowa.
O'BRIEN: Really?
CAFFERTY: It's 40 miles north of Des Moines. They scrub the streets by hand with soap and water, with brooms. The kids get out there. I mean, it's the cleanest place I've ever been.
SERWER: But that's not the question. CAFFERTY: That's not the question, but I'm telling a story about this tulip festival.
SERWER: Sorry.
CAFFERTY: Sherry writes: "I support the company that fired the questionable employees' refusing to be tested for smoking. The nonsmoking public has been forced to pay for the health issues caused by smoking and second-hand smoke for far too long."
And Rich in New York writes: "Only if they're smoking crack."
SERWER: Yes.
CAFFERTY: "Otherwise, people should mind their own business. If they're going to monitor me 24/7, then technically I'm on the clock 24/7 and I should be paid as such."
SERWER: Oh, that's a good comeback.
HEMMER: Now that was the question.
SERWER: Right, that was the question.
HEMMER: Well done.
SERWER: One out of five, right?
HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Tulip festival.
O'BRIEN: Thank you. Where did that come from?
CAFFERTY: It's very cool, actually.
SERWER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: I've never seen it.
CAFFERTY: Great restaurants, family-style cooking.
SERWER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: We will talk about it more.
CAFFERTY: They still working in Iowa.
O'BRIEN: Oh.
(CROSSTALK)
CAFFERTY: How much time do you have? I'll till tell you stories about Iowa.
O'BRIEN: We have a lifetime, Jack. CAFFERTY: Yes, we do.
O'BRIEN: You and me together. We certainly do. But right now, we're actually going to go to the break.
CAFFERTY: It sure seems like it some mornings.
O'BRIEN: The "New You Revolution" continues. How tough is the Reverend Leigh Ann Raynor? Find out whether she's still with the program or if she's thrown in the towel up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: It's week two of our "New You Revolution." I always want to call it resolution, which was the name last year.
HEMMER: That was last year.
SERWER: But now it's a revolution. We're helping five folks break some bad health habits.
HEMMER: Every Tuesday morning, Sanjay joins us, checks up on their progress or lack thereof. He's at the CNN center.
How are you, doc? Good morning.
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good morning, Bill and Soledad.
The first week of the "New You Revolution" was busy one for all of our participants. They had a cooking class. We got them in the gym for a morning. It was all designed to get everyone off to a good start, but especially for the Reverend Leigh Ann Raynor.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And inhale. And she goes down!
LEIGH ANN RAYNOR, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: I did that well, don't you think?
GUPTA (voice over): She's the reverend. She's almost 50, and she's ready to make a "New You Revolution."
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Lift the hips up.
RAYNOR: That's as far as my hip goes, sweety. I'm finding muscles I had forgotten I had.
GUPTA: No surprise to her that she isn't as limber as she used to be.
RAYNOR: It's difficult because I'm one of the most competitive people I know.
GUPTA: But she does have a key ingredient: determination. (on camera): So, how are you feeling?
RAYNOR: I feel great.
GUPTA: Yes? No problems at all? Not overdoing it?
RAYNOR: No.
GUPTA (voice over): It's important, because six months ago she had successful heart surgery. Now she watches closely for warning signs.
RAYNOR: Chest pains, dizziness, shortness of breath, because other than that, your only warning sign is sudden cardiac death.
GUPTA: So we're going slow. No more than three miles an hour for now and some mild resistance training. Of course, hand in hand with the exercise comes diet. So we took Leigh Ann and the others to cooking school.
(on camera): Where do you hope to be eight weeks from now?
RAYNOR: Eight weeks from now, I hope to have learned some cooking techniques.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: When you cook your own food, it's always going to taste better and going to be -- it is!
GUPTA: Have you tasted her cooking?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Have you?
GUPTA: No.
(voice over): But Leigh Ann surprised even herself by cooking her first meal ever for someone else. She made chicken, and along with some healthy mac and cheese and a salad, this meal is filling, and just 500 calories.
With exercise, diet and good old-fashioned willpower, the reverend is well on her way.
RAYNOR: Wish me luck. I'm going to work at it.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA: There she is. And our other participants have also had some ups and downs in the first week. Here's their weekly checkup.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA (voice over): For Thekla, the "New You Revolution" is about learning.
THEKLA FISCHER, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: It's teaching me where I've got work to do. GUPTA: From which areas to strengthen to which foods are best.
Dr. Lisa Missoulu (ph), author of "Before Your Pregnancy," arrived with some useful lessons.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Women under 35 and particularly between 30 and 35, have about an 85 percent chance of getting pregnant if they try for 12 cycles or one year.
GUPTA: And to dispel some myths.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Whether you've never been on the pill, on it for 2 years or 10 years, you'll actually get the same ability to be pregnant after that's done.
GUPTA: One week into his "New You Revolution" and already a minor hitch for Jonathan. The doctor's prescription for ending his nail-biting habit: self-monitoring. And the best way?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because you need to save the nails.
JONATHAN KARP, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: If anybody found out, I'd be a certified whack job. It's a good idea, but I wouldn't do it.
GUPTA: Jonathan did agree to the backup plan: Keep a log of how much he bites every day and to reduce stress which may be fueling his habit. He'll try relaxation techniques to keep the biting at bay.
SANDRA GARTH, "NEW YOU" PARTICIPANT: I'm ready. I've committed to do it, and I'm going to do it.
GUPTA: She sure is. Sandra's first week of the "New You Revolution" included some tips from the experts at a cooking school. Out? French toast dripping in syrup. In? Healthy French toast covered in yogurt and fruit.
Even after she went home and the cameras went away, Sandra has been sticking to her plan. Resistance training with her exercise bands and walking and walking. Using her step meter, she's been going about the 10,000 steps recommended by her trainer.
And she's cut back on her food intake. But her nutritionist is telling her to eat more, 1,600 calories a day.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
And next week, we're focusing on Harald, who admits he's addicted to running and he's doing lots of it. The problem is, he's also addicted to food. So is he starting to break those bad habits? We'll ask him.
For now, here are take-home tips for you as well. All of this we learned from week one. Firs of all, don't skip meals, especially if you're going to exercise. It's really important. Find low-calorie versions of your favorite recipes. And wear a pedometer or a step meter so you know when you've taken 10,000 steps. It really seems to help, Bill and Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Good advice. All right, Sanjay, thanks.
GUPTA: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: You know, our fingers are crossed for them.
HEMMER: It's early.
O'BRIEN: It's week two. It's hard.
HEMMER: Seven more weeks to go.
O'BRIEN: Yes, I think they're going to do it.
HEMMER: Thank you, Sanjay.
GUPTA: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Sanjay.
HEMMER: Yes. In a moment here, we're going to get you back to Baghdad. Five days now until the elections on Sunday in that country. The violence is expected to escalate. Now there is word about an American hostage. Christiane Amanpour is live in Baghdad in a moment, top of the hour here on AMERICAN MORNING.
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