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CNN Live At Daybreak
Iraqi Elections; 'The War Room'; World Economic Forum; Violent Drawings; Pregnant & Depressed
Aired January 27, 2005 - 05:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, and welcome to the second half-hour of DAYBREAK. From the Time Warner Center in New York, I'm Carol Costello.
"Now in the News."
A suicide bombing with a twist in the northern Iraqi city of Sinjar, a stolen tractor exploded outside the office of the Kurdish Democratic Party. Four Iraqi soldiers and a guard were killed. Seventeen other people were wounded, nine of them Iraqi soldiers.
People from 30 nations are gathered in Poland to observe the 60th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi death camp at Auschwitz. The Nazis killed more than a million people there before Soviet troops arrived on January 27, 1945.
The new Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was to deliver what he called a special message today to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, but Abbas postponed his visit, giving no reason for the postponement.
A research ship with nearly 1,000 people onboard is disabled in 35-foot seas south of Alaska. Six hundred eighty-one of those aboard are students. Coast Guard cutters and planes are heading for the scene.
To the Forecast Center and, Rob Marciano, good morning.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hey, Carol. That's an area of the country, or at least that part of the ocean, which big waves often happen this time of year and they can actually be worse.
(WEATHER REPORT)
And bundle up there again in New York, Carol, 19 degrees and no immediate warm up in sight for you guys. So it's winter. And you had your 70-degree temperatures a couple of weeks ago, so I hope you enjoyed that.
COSTELLO: Well I did, and we're paying for it now.
Thank you -- Rob.
MARCIANO: OK.
COSTELLO: Here's a look at what's happening with Iraq's elections. A 275-member National Assembly and 18 provisional councils will be chosen. A president and two vice presidents will then be selected by the National Assembly and the new Iraqi president will select a prime minister. A new constitution will be written by the National Assembly and will have to be approved by voters in another referendum.
U.S. General John Abizaid says the election will send a message to the insurgents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, U.S. ARMY: We all need to understand that in Iraq today that what is happening is revolutionary in political terms. We also need to understand that the thing the enemy fears the most, the thing that people, such as Zarqawi and bin Laden and Zawahari, fear the most are free elections.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Usually, though, in times of strife and with the introduction of a new democracy, impartial observers are sent into the country to make sure nothing goes wrong. We're talking about making sure ballot boxes aren't stuffed, voters aren't impeded and the votes are counted fairly.
On Sunday, though, in Iraq, there will be no observers. Why?
Well let's ask Mark Stevens, the E.U.'s Chief of Election Observers.
Welcome.
MARK STEVENS, E.U. DEP. CHIEF OF ELECTIONS: Thank you.
COSTELLO: International observers have been sent into dangerous places before, Gaza and the West Bank, Afghanistan, why not Iraq?
STEVENS: Yes, I just recently returned from the Palestinian elections, and I think the Iraqi elections offer a very different set of challenges. When election observers go into a country, even though there may be some security concerns, there are not normally direct targets or threats. And in the Palestinian context, for example, although there were security concerns coming from the ongoing occupation, international observers were never a target.
And I suspect, though, the fear in Iraq was that people would be actively targeted. And at the end of the day, international observers are a very soft target. It's a civilian operation, and I think the security concerns were just too great.
COSTELLO: I know that election monitors won't be sent into Iraq because of the reasons you just outlined, but they will be monitoring in a different way. Where will they be and how will they be monitoring this?
STEVENS: Yes, it's quite interesting. I think the international community is very enthusiastic to be seen to be supporting and contributing to the process in order to make a contribution. And so I think there are some efforts, ranging both from within the international zone in Baghdad, but mostly from outside from Jordan, for example, where a lot of the operations are organized from. And so I think a degree of assessment will be possible from Jordan, but of course it's not the same level of assessment which international observers would normally undertake.
COSTELLO: Understand. Have you heard of specific places within Iraq that Iraqis will not be able to vote this weekend?
STEVENS: Well I have -- I mean I have only followed on as the reports have been on the media, and of course there are still direct security concerns in various areas, and that will possibly affect the election. At the end of the day, in order for an election to take place, people need to be able to freely move towards polling stations and freely move around. The election officials need to freely move to organize things. And if the security situation doesn't allow that, then of course compromises will have to be made on the process.
COSTELLO: But isn't it better to have a flawed election rather than no election at all?
STEVENS: Yes, I think there's lots of debate about this question. But if you look back through recent years that has been the position taken. And if one looks at Bosnia as an example, the first elections in Bosnia after the war in 1996, there were many, many questions raised about that election. But at the end of the day, it delivered some degree of legitimacy for the elected authority. And subsequent years have shown that legitimacy has increased and stability has increased, and now Bosnia is not in the news in the way it used to be.
COSTELLO: No, it's not.
Mark Stevens, the E.U.'s Chief of Election Observers, joining DAYBREAK this morning, and we thank you.
To "The War Room" now for what's after the Iraqi elections. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warns there will be what he calls "a period of ambiguity after the vote and insurgents will try to capitalize on that."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: These are people that know they have a lot to lose if Iraq is successful in setting itself on a path of democracy. So one has to expect that the level of violence will either stay where it is or go up or down modestly during this period, as they attempt to prevent from happening that which is going to happen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: And Rumsfeld says it will be March or April before things sort themselves out. Let's go live to CNN's senior international editor David Clinch. He's in Atlanta this morning.
Can you really set a timetable like that?
DAVID CLINCH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL EDITOR: Well, I'm not sure if he can. It's certainly going to be very busy between now and March and April, but beyond that as well. We have to remember there are steps here, and with each step in this political process comes another rise in the level of violence.
The election that's happening now, everybody has been saying that the level of violence will rise, and it has. Attacks in something like 15 Iraqi cities today alone, and of course we've seen a lot of U.S. soldiers killed.
But the next stage in the process, this National Assembly that's going to be elected on Sunday, and of course we have to still see whether that election is deemed valid, but that's only the first step.
The next step then will be that they have to form a full proper government with a prime minister and a Cabinet. That's going to take a number of weeks, months, perhaps even longer. And then they, the government, will have to, including this National Assembly, will have to form a constitution.
With each of these stages, officials, both Iraqi and U.S. officials, are predicting that at each one of these points violence will rise again.
And I don't know if you've heard the phrase of what doesn't kill you will cure you. Well the cure, if you want to think of democracy as the cure for Iraq here, is certainly proving very painful and, perhaps, in the worst case scenario, deadly for many Iraqis.
Because as they go through this process, everybody is acknowledging that the link between what is happening on the political side and what's happening on the level of violence, they're completely intertwined. And at each point, we're seeing a peak in violence. And we're certainly seeing that right now with the election that's taking place right now.
COSTELLO: David Clinch, live in Atlanta this morning, thank you.
CLINCH: All right.
COSTELLO: Combating poverty and AIDS in Africa tops the agenda at the World Economic Forum today in Switzerland. In opening the conference, British Prime Minister Tony Blair had urged delegates to increase aid to Africa.
Senior international correspondent Walter Rodgers is live in Switzerland this morning.
Hello.
WALTER RODGERS, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.
Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair is indeed leading the charge to increase -- in Blair's words -- "to double the amount of foreign aid which the developed countries give to Africa." Also high on his agenda, debt relief, that is forgiving the indebtedness of many of the most impoverished African countries.
The lead panel this morning, indeed here in Davos, is a star- studded panel, Bono, Prime Minister Blair, former President Bill Clinton, the president of South Africa, Mr. Mbeki, and the president of Nigeria, Mr. Obasanjo.
The moderator of that panel, interestingly, is French, Christine Ockrent. She's from France Trois, France Three, the television network. She used her position, curiously, to beat up on the United States, to indict the United States, and she went after President Clinton demanding that the United States give more foreign aid to Africa. Again, this French moderator using it as a bit of a grandstanding platform.
But when asked why the United States didn't help Africa more, Bill Clinton quite honestly said, there simply is no constituency for it in the United States. Nobody ever lost a Senate race or a House race in the U.S. Congress by not voting for foreign aid for Africa, this according to President Clinton.
Interestingly enough, however, Bill Frist, the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, was there. He did point out several things which the French moderator chose to ignore, most specifically that 25 percent of all disaster relief in the world, as in the east Asian tsunami, comes from the United States. Sixty percent of all food relief in the world comes, again, from the United States. I suppose it's who has the ax to grind here.
But again, the focus of the day in Davos is poverty relief, poverty easement in Africa. It's a very difficult issue. Nobody has answers. All they're trying to do here is focus more attention on the problem. And as you pointed out coming in, neither President Bush, nor Vice President Cheney is here. The United State is badly underrepresented in Davos -- Carol.
COSTELLO: Walter Rodgers, live in Switzerland. And by the way, there's a live picture beside you, Walter, we see Bill Gates, Microsoft's founder. And of course he just donated, what, hundreds of millions of dollars to vaccinate children across the world.
We'll get more from Switzerland as events warrant.
Children's drawings raise a red alert in one Florida school. At 46 minutes past the hour, we'll tell you why school officials and police were so upset by the artwork you are looking at.
And it's not too late, if you haven't done it yet, you might want to consider getting a flu shot.
But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It's 5:43 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
Vice President Dick Cheney is among world leaders gathered in Poland to mark the 60th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. More than one million people died at that Nazi death camp.
The Library of Congress has just posted personal memories of the September 11 terrorist attacks online. It includes about 40 hours of audio and video interviews, plus poems, writings, drawings and pictures. It's part of the set called "American Memory." You can check it out at memory.loc.gov.
In money news, an Ohio-based utility company is paying $81 million to settle a lawsuit. Federal regulators accuse traders for American Electric Power of manipulating prices in the natural gas market by filing false reports.
In culture, New York's Plaza Hotel is getting a makeover. The landmark building overlooking Central Park will close at the end of April. The owner says it will reopen next year as a condominium hotel retail complex.
In sports, Duke suffered its first defeat of the season at the hands of the conference rival Maryland. The 75-66 loss leaves Illinois and Boston College as the only undefeated teams in college basketball -- Rob.
MARCIANO: It looked like that was going to happen. Caught the first half of that game and Maryland was in control.
(WEATHER REPORT)
Stay warm up there, Carol, see you in a bit.
COSTELLO: I'm going to try. Thank you, Rob.
Those are the latest headlines for you this morning.
Two elementary school boys were arrested and hauled out of school in handcuffs. We're talking about boys ages 9 and 10. Their crime, drawing stick figures depicting violence. The drawings caused a fellow student to fear for his life.
Reporter Sandy D'Elosua of CNN affiliate WCJB has details from Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SANDY D'ELOSUA, WCJB-TV REPORTER (voice-over): Two students in a special education class at Wyomina Park Elementary are facing felony charges after allegedly drawing graphic and violent pictures of a classmate getting killed. JOSEPH TRUDEL, FATHER OF ACCUSED STUDENT: My son is not a violent person. The stick figures are wrong to do in school. Discipline and being accountable for his actions, absolutely. The suspension I agree on, because he needs to understand that this was wrong.
D'ELOSUA: The police report says the drawing shows the 9 and 10- year-old boys on both sides of the victim with knives in their hands and a pool of blood at the bottom. Another shows a stick figure hanging with tears falling from its eyes with two other stick figures below him. Scrap paper had misspelled profanities and the initials of the boy who was allegedly threatened. The victim saw the pictures and told.
SGT. RUSS KERN, OCALA, FLORIDA POLICE: When I look at the picture, or any adult, it doesn't look like that much. We also have got to take in consideration what the child was thinking when he saw those pictures. That's the main thing we're focusing here. He was extremely scared.
KEVIN CHRISTIAN, MARION CO. SCHOOLS SPOKESMAN: We have to take it seriously because we live in a post Columbine society.
TRUDEL: This is not Columbine. That's all I keep hearing from everybody officially is that you know we have to be careful with the Columbine and 9/11. These are 9 and 10-year-old children that were friends.
D'ELOSUA: Officers say there were some prior violent acts involving at least one of the accused. Officers also say bullying could have played a part.
CHRISTIAN: We see the signs of violence. We see a plan for violence. We don't want to see that violence carried out.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: That was WCJB reporter Sandy D'Elosua in Ocala, Florida.
The charges against the boys of making a written threat to kill or harm another person is a second-degree felony.
We've all heard about women who battle the baby blues after giving birth, but for many expectant moms, depression can arrive long before the baby does. The doctor is in just ahead.
And in the next hour of DAYBREAK, we're giving you a chance to ask an expert. Air Force Major General Don Sheppard will be here live in the next hour. He'll be taking your e-mail questions about the Iraqi elections. DAYBREAK@CNN.com. That's DAYBREAK@CNN.com.
From New York, you are watching DAYBREAK.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) COSTELLO: In "Health Headlines" for you this morning, at your next doctor's visit, ask about thinning bones. Researchers say people with low bone mineral density are at greater risk for developing Alzheimer's. That research is reported in the journal archives of neurology.
Here's something that may disturb you, a survey has found that 80 percent of doctors say they have seen other doctors make mistakes. But the survey adds only 10 percent of them spoke up about what they saw. The survey also found that half of the nurses surveyed witnessed mistakes by their colleagues. The study says the mistakes contribute to the deaths of tens of thousands of people every year.
And word from federal health officials, go on, roll up that sleeve and get that flu shot. The CDC says some parts of the country have plenty of vaccine available. Last fall, only those most at risk were urged to get shots because of a vaccine shortage. Now it's feared more people will get the flu and manufacturers will not make as much vaccine next year.
For more on this or any other health story, head to our Web site, the address, CNN.com/health.
Now here's a serious health condition that gets very little attention, depression during pregnancy. Women expecting a bundle of joy but carrying a load of sadness.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta has details for you.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's the dark side of pregnancy that no one seems to talk about. Not the joyful expectancy or anticipation, but sadness, fatigue, even profound depression.
Thirty-five-year-old Kim Allard suffered all of those feelings in silence during her pregnancy.
KIM ALLARD, SUFFERED PREGNANCY DEPRESSION: We're supposed to be happy and serene and joyful and excited, and we're not supposed to talk about the things that are hard about pregnancy.
GUPTA: And it was hard. When Allard's lifelong history of depression hit during her second trimester, for weeks at a time, she dreaded going to work, socializing with friends. Everything normal became a chore.
ALLARD: At one of the worst points, you know, food didn't even seem that interesting. And there were actually times when I had to remind myself to eat.
GUPTA: A 2001 study in the "British Medical Journal" indicates that depression during pregnancy may be more common than postpartum depression. Problem is...
ALLARD: Some of it is hard to tease out from the hormonal upheaval of pregnancy.
GUPTA: It's probably not just hormones, when moms have experienced depression before or had a family history, if the pregnancy is complicated, or inordinately stressful. And left unchecked, depression could cause problems not only for Mom but for the baby as well, like preterm delivery and low birth weight.
DR. ZACHARY STOWE, EMORY UNIVERSITY: We're not talking about the sniffles, you know. We're talking about something that can truly have an impact on the pregnancy.
GUPTA: For more serious cases, some experts suggest taking antidepressants, but it's not known yet how these drugs will impact the fetus. Antidepressants during the third trimester could cause problems, such as jitteriness when the baby is born.
DR. LORI ALTSHULER, UCLA: So to add now to that burden, in a very depressed woman whose doctor has made the decision with them that they need to be on medication, that they may additionally be harming their baby by causing a withdrawal syndrome in the child.
GUPTA: With all of this to weigh, Kim Allard decided to see a therapist. In her case, talk therapy alone worked, one of the best decisions she ever made.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: The White House won't be handing out big cash to political pundits anymore. We'll tell you what prompted President Bush to make that promise. That's all new in the next hour of DAYBREAK.
Also, are you tired of paying big time for a change of plans? We'll tell you which airlines will give you a break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: It is time to check our "Web Clicks" this morning, what stories are getting your attention on our Web site, CNN.com.
The most popular story on CNN.com right now, -- Rob,...
MARCIANO: What's that?
COSTELLO: ... is about this radio station. The entire staff of this radio station in New York City, Hot 97, was pulled off the air for running a song that ridiculed victims of the tsunami in south Asia. Jack Cafferty was talking about this yesterday.
MARCIANO: Really?
COSTELLO: It was an awful song.
MARCIANO: Why would you even make a song, let alone play one like that?
COSTELLO: And why would you ever think it would be funny? This song used racial slurs to describe people swept away in the disaster, made jokes about child slavery and people watching their mothers die. You can hear God laughing. Swim you bitches, swim was one line in that song, and it was sung by the staff. So I think that entire staff is out right now.
MARCIANO: Deservedly so.
COSTELLO: Exactly.
The second most popular story on CNN.com is about this incident on a Southwest Airlines flight.
MARCIANO: What did he do?
COSTELLO: Well...
MARCIANO: This guy looks like a criminal. I guess he got in trouble, this guy right here.
COSTELLO: He got in big trouble. He actually stood up on a flight from Philadelphia to West Palm Beach and tried to get into the cockpit after complaining about the government. He supposedly allegedly exchanged blows with a flight attendant, and then the passengers got up and they calmed him down. They used duct tape to tie him up. The pilot...
MARCIANO: That's not a good idea nowadays to attack the cockpit and be mumbling about the government.
COSTELLO: No, and if you try to get in the cockpit, the passengers will take action, and they certainly did. In fact, the pilot didn't even bother to call in an emergency because the passengers -- well, the passengers took care of it.
MARCIANO: I love it.
COSTELLO: The third most popular story on CNN.com was about this British man who is trying to sell a deactivated Soviet era missile on eBay.
MARCIANO: OK, so it's deactivated, what's the big deal?
COSTELLO: What's the big deal? Because apparently it was listed beside the launching mechanism. And you're not allowed to, for whatever reason on eBay, put them side by side. But if he lists them separately, he's allowed to do that. So you can still bid on that deactivated Soviet era missile if you'd like it.
MARCIANO: Rules, rules, rules.
COSTELLO: Exactly.
The next hour of DAYBREAK starts right now. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 27, 2005 - 05:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, and welcome to the second half-hour of DAYBREAK. From the Time Warner Center in New York, I'm Carol Costello.
"Now in the News."
A suicide bombing with a twist in the northern Iraqi city of Sinjar, a stolen tractor exploded outside the office of the Kurdish Democratic Party. Four Iraqi soldiers and a guard were killed. Seventeen other people were wounded, nine of them Iraqi soldiers.
People from 30 nations are gathered in Poland to observe the 60th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi death camp at Auschwitz. The Nazis killed more than a million people there before Soviet troops arrived on January 27, 1945.
The new Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was to deliver what he called a special message today to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, but Abbas postponed his visit, giving no reason for the postponement.
A research ship with nearly 1,000 people onboard is disabled in 35-foot seas south of Alaska. Six hundred eighty-one of those aboard are students. Coast Guard cutters and planes are heading for the scene.
To the Forecast Center and, Rob Marciano, good morning.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hey, Carol. That's an area of the country, or at least that part of the ocean, which big waves often happen this time of year and they can actually be worse.
(WEATHER REPORT)
And bundle up there again in New York, Carol, 19 degrees and no immediate warm up in sight for you guys. So it's winter. And you had your 70-degree temperatures a couple of weeks ago, so I hope you enjoyed that.
COSTELLO: Well I did, and we're paying for it now.
Thank you -- Rob.
MARCIANO: OK.
COSTELLO: Here's a look at what's happening with Iraq's elections. A 275-member National Assembly and 18 provisional councils will be chosen. A president and two vice presidents will then be selected by the National Assembly and the new Iraqi president will select a prime minister. A new constitution will be written by the National Assembly and will have to be approved by voters in another referendum.
U.S. General John Abizaid says the election will send a message to the insurgents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, U.S. ARMY: We all need to understand that in Iraq today that what is happening is revolutionary in political terms. We also need to understand that the thing the enemy fears the most, the thing that people, such as Zarqawi and bin Laden and Zawahari, fear the most are free elections.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Usually, though, in times of strife and with the introduction of a new democracy, impartial observers are sent into the country to make sure nothing goes wrong. We're talking about making sure ballot boxes aren't stuffed, voters aren't impeded and the votes are counted fairly.
On Sunday, though, in Iraq, there will be no observers. Why?
Well let's ask Mark Stevens, the E.U.'s Chief of Election Observers.
Welcome.
MARK STEVENS, E.U. DEP. CHIEF OF ELECTIONS: Thank you.
COSTELLO: International observers have been sent into dangerous places before, Gaza and the West Bank, Afghanistan, why not Iraq?
STEVENS: Yes, I just recently returned from the Palestinian elections, and I think the Iraqi elections offer a very different set of challenges. When election observers go into a country, even though there may be some security concerns, there are not normally direct targets or threats. And in the Palestinian context, for example, although there were security concerns coming from the ongoing occupation, international observers were never a target.
And I suspect, though, the fear in Iraq was that people would be actively targeted. And at the end of the day, international observers are a very soft target. It's a civilian operation, and I think the security concerns were just too great.
COSTELLO: I know that election monitors won't be sent into Iraq because of the reasons you just outlined, but they will be monitoring in a different way. Where will they be and how will they be monitoring this?
STEVENS: Yes, it's quite interesting. I think the international community is very enthusiastic to be seen to be supporting and contributing to the process in order to make a contribution. And so I think there are some efforts, ranging both from within the international zone in Baghdad, but mostly from outside from Jordan, for example, where a lot of the operations are organized from. And so I think a degree of assessment will be possible from Jordan, but of course it's not the same level of assessment which international observers would normally undertake.
COSTELLO: Understand. Have you heard of specific places within Iraq that Iraqis will not be able to vote this weekend?
STEVENS: Well I have -- I mean I have only followed on as the reports have been on the media, and of course there are still direct security concerns in various areas, and that will possibly affect the election. At the end of the day, in order for an election to take place, people need to be able to freely move towards polling stations and freely move around. The election officials need to freely move to organize things. And if the security situation doesn't allow that, then of course compromises will have to be made on the process.
COSTELLO: But isn't it better to have a flawed election rather than no election at all?
STEVENS: Yes, I think there's lots of debate about this question. But if you look back through recent years that has been the position taken. And if one looks at Bosnia as an example, the first elections in Bosnia after the war in 1996, there were many, many questions raised about that election. But at the end of the day, it delivered some degree of legitimacy for the elected authority. And subsequent years have shown that legitimacy has increased and stability has increased, and now Bosnia is not in the news in the way it used to be.
COSTELLO: No, it's not.
Mark Stevens, the E.U.'s Chief of Election Observers, joining DAYBREAK this morning, and we thank you.
To "The War Room" now for what's after the Iraqi elections. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warns there will be what he calls "a period of ambiguity after the vote and insurgents will try to capitalize on that."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: These are people that know they have a lot to lose if Iraq is successful in setting itself on a path of democracy. So one has to expect that the level of violence will either stay where it is or go up or down modestly during this period, as they attempt to prevent from happening that which is going to happen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: And Rumsfeld says it will be March or April before things sort themselves out. Let's go live to CNN's senior international editor David Clinch. He's in Atlanta this morning.
Can you really set a timetable like that?
DAVID CLINCH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL EDITOR: Well, I'm not sure if he can. It's certainly going to be very busy between now and March and April, but beyond that as well. We have to remember there are steps here, and with each step in this political process comes another rise in the level of violence.
The election that's happening now, everybody has been saying that the level of violence will rise, and it has. Attacks in something like 15 Iraqi cities today alone, and of course we've seen a lot of U.S. soldiers killed.
But the next stage in the process, this National Assembly that's going to be elected on Sunday, and of course we have to still see whether that election is deemed valid, but that's only the first step.
The next step then will be that they have to form a full proper government with a prime minister and a Cabinet. That's going to take a number of weeks, months, perhaps even longer. And then they, the government, will have to, including this National Assembly, will have to form a constitution.
With each of these stages, officials, both Iraqi and U.S. officials, are predicting that at each one of these points violence will rise again.
And I don't know if you've heard the phrase of what doesn't kill you will cure you. Well the cure, if you want to think of democracy as the cure for Iraq here, is certainly proving very painful and, perhaps, in the worst case scenario, deadly for many Iraqis.
Because as they go through this process, everybody is acknowledging that the link between what is happening on the political side and what's happening on the level of violence, they're completely intertwined. And at each point, we're seeing a peak in violence. And we're certainly seeing that right now with the election that's taking place right now.
COSTELLO: David Clinch, live in Atlanta this morning, thank you.
CLINCH: All right.
COSTELLO: Combating poverty and AIDS in Africa tops the agenda at the World Economic Forum today in Switzerland. In opening the conference, British Prime Minister Tony Blair had urged delegates to increase aid to Africa.
Senior international correspondent Walter Rodgers is live in Switzerland this morning.
Hello.
WALTER RODGERS, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.
Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair is indeed leading the charge to increase -- in Blair's words -- "to double the amount of foreign aid which the developed countries give to Africa." Also high on his agenda, debt relief, that is forgiving the indebtedness of many of the most impoverished African countries.
The lead panel this morning, indeed here in Davos, is a star- studded panel, Bono, Prime Minister Blair, former President Bill Clinton, the president of South Africa, Mr. Mbeki, and the president of Nigeria, Mr. Obasanjo.
The moderator of that panel, interestingly, is French, Christine Ockrent. She's from France Trois, France Three, the television network. She used her position, curiously, to beat up on the United States, to indict the United States, and she went after President Clinton demanding that the United States give more foreign aid to Africa. Again, this French moderator using it as a bit of a grandstanding platform.
But when asked why the United States didn't help Africa more, Bill Clinton quite honestly said, there simply is no constituency for it in the United States. Nobody ever lost a Senate race or a House race in the U.S. Congress by not voting for foreign aid for Africa, this according to President Clinton.
Interestingly enough, however, Bill Frist, the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, was there. He did point out several things which the French moderator chose to ignore, most specifically that 25 percent of all disaster relief in the world, as in the east Asian tsunami, comes from the United States. Sixty percent of all food relief in the world comes, again, from the United States. I suppose it's who has the ax to grind here.
But again, the focus of the day in Davos is poverty relief, poverty easement in Africa. It's a very difficult issue. Nobody has answers. All they're trying to do here is focus more attention on the problem. And as you pointed out coming in, neither President Bush, nor Vice President Cheney is here. The United State is badly underrepresented in Davos -- Carol.
COSTELLO: Walter Rodgers, live in Switzerland. And by the way, there's a live picture beside you, Walter, we see Bill Gates, Microsoft's founder. And of course he just donated, what, hundreds of millions of dollars to vaccinate children across the world.
We'll get more from Switzerland as events warrant.
Children's drawings raise a red alert in one Florida school. At 46 minutes past the hour, we'll tell you why school officials and police were so upset by the artwork you are looking at.
And it's not too late, if you haven't done it yet, you might want to consider getting a flu shot.
But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: Your news, money, weather and sports. It's 5:43 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.
Vice President Dick Cheney is among world leaders gathered in Poland to mark the 60th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. More than one million people died at that Nazi death camp.
The Library of Congress has just posted personal memories of the September 11 terrorist attacks online. It includes about 40 hours of audio and video interviews, plus poems, writings, drawings and pictures. It's part of the set called "American Memory." You can check it out at memory.loc.gov.
In money news, an Ohio-based utility company is paying $81 million to settle a lawsuit. Federal regulators accuse traders for American Electric Power of manipulating prices in the natural gas market by filing false reports.
In culture, New York's Plaza Hotel is getting a makeover. The landmark building overlooking Central Park will close at the end of April. The owner says it will reopen next year as a condominium hotel retail complex.
In sports, Duke suffered its first defeat of the season at the hands of the conference rival Maryland. The 75-66 loss leaves Illinois and Boston College as the only undefeated teams in college basketball -- Rob.
MARCIANO: It looked like that was going to happen. Caught the first half of that game and Maryland was in control.
(WEATHER REPORT)
Stay warm up there, Carol, see you in a bit.
COSTELLO: I'm going to try. Thank you, Rob.
Those are the latest headlines for you this morning.
Two elementary school boys were arrested and hauled out of school in handcuffs. We're talking about boys ages 9 and 10. Their crime, drawing stick figures depicting violence. The drawings caused a fellow student to fear for his life.
Reporter Sandy D'Elosua of CNN affiliate WCJB has details from Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SANDY D'ELOSUA, WCJB-TV REPORTER (voice-over): Two students in a special education class at Wyomina Park Elementary are facing felony charges after allegedly drawing graphic and violent pictures of a classmate getting killed. JOSEPH TRUDEL, FATHER OF ACCUSED STUDENT: My son is not a violent person. The stick figures are wrong to do in school. Discipline and being accountable for his actions, absolutely. The suspension I agree on, because he needs to understand that this was wrong.
D'ELOSUA: The police report says the drawing shows the 9 and 10- year-old boys on both sides of the victim with knives in their hands and a pool of blood at the bottom. Another shows a stick figure hanging with tears falling from its eyes with two other stick figures below him. Scrap paper had misspelled profanities and the initials of the boy who was allegedly threatened. The victim saw the pictures and told.
SGT. RUSS KERN, OCALA, FLORIDA POLICE: When I look at the picture, or any adult, it doesn't look like that much. We also have got to take in consideration what the child was thinking when he saw those pictures. That's the main thing we're focusing here. He was extremely scared.
KEVIN CHRISTIAN, MARION CO. SCHOOLS SPOKESMAN: We have to take it seriously because we live in a post Columbine society.
TRUDEL: This is not Columbine. That's all I keep hearing from everybody officially is that you know we have to be careful with the Columbine and 9/11. These are 9 and 10-year-old children that were friends.
D'ELOSUA: Officers say there were some prior violent acts involving at least one of the accused. Officers also say bullying could have played a part.
CHRISTIAN: We see the signs of violence. We see a plan for violence. We don't want to see that violence carried out.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: That was WCJB reporter Sandy D'Elosua in Ocala, Florida.
The charges against the boys of making a written threat to kill or harm another person is a second-degree felony.
We've all heard about women who battle the baby blues after giving birth, but for many expectant moms, depression can arrive long before the baby does. The doctor is in just ahead.
And in the next hour of DAYBREAK, we're giving you a chance to ask an expert. Air Force Major General Don Sheppard will be here live in the next hour. He'll be taking your e-mail questions about the Iraqi elections. DAYBREAK@CNN.com. That's DAYBREAK@CNN.com.
From New York, you are watching DAYBREAK.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) COSTELLO: In "Health Headlines" for you this morning, at your next doctor's visit, ask about thinning bones. Researchers say people with low bone mineral density are at greater risk for developing Alzheimer's. That research is reported in the journal archives of neurology.
Here's something that may disturb you, a survey has found that 80 percent of doctors say they have seen other doctors make mistakes. But the survey adds only 10 percent of them spoke up about what they saw. The survey also found that half of the nurses surveyed witnessed mistakes by their colleagues. The study says the mistakes contribute to the deaths of tens of thousands of people every year.
And word from federal health officials, go on, roll up that sleeve and get that flu shot. The CDC says some parts of the country have plenty of vaccine available. Last fall, only those most at risk were urged to get shots because of a vaccine shortage. Now it's feared more people will get the flu and manufacturers will not make as much vaccine next year.
For more on this or any other health story, head to our Web site, the address, CNN.com/health.
Now here's a serious health condition that gets very little attention, depression during pregnancy. Women expecting a bundle of joy but carrying a load of sadness.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta has details for you.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's the dark side of pregnancy that no one seems to talk about. Not the joyful expectancy or anticipation, but sadness, fatigue, even profound depression.
Thirty-five-year-old Kim Allard suffered all of those feelings in silence during her pregnancy.
KIM ALLARD, SUFFERED PREGNANCY DEPRESSION: We're supposed to be happy and serene and joyful and excited, and we're not supposed to talk about the things that are hard about pregnancy.
GUPTA: And it was hard. When Allard's lifelong history of depression hit during her second trimester, for weeks at a time, she dreaded going to work, socializing with friends. Everything normal became a chore.
ALLARD: At one of the worst points, you know, food didn't even seem that interesting. And there were actually times when I had to remind myself to eat.
GUPTA: A 2001 study in the "British Medical Journal" indicates that depression during pregnancy may be more common than postpartum depression. Problem is...
ALLARD: Some of it is hard to tease out from the hormonal upheaval of pregnancy.
GUPTA: It's probably not just hormones, when moms have experienced depression before or had a family history, if the pregnancy is complicated, or inordinately stressful. And left unchecked, depression could cause problems not only for Mom but for the baby as well, like preterm delivery and low birth weight.
DR. ZACHARY STOWE, EMORY UNIVERSITY: We're not talking about the sniffles, you know. We're talking about something that can truly have an impact on the pregnancy.
GUPTA: For more serious cases, some experts suggest taking antidepressants, but it's not known yet how these drugs will impact the fetus. Antidepressants during the third trimester could cause problems, such as jitteriness when the baby is born.
DR. LORI ALTSHULER, UCLA: So to add now to that burden, in a very depressed woman whose doctor has made the decision with them that they need to be on medication, that they may additionally be harming their baby by causing a withdrawal syndrome in the child.
GUPTA: With all of this to weigh, Kim Allard decided to see a therapist. In her case, talk therapy alone worked, one of the best decisions she ever made.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: The White House won't be handing out big cash to political pundits anymore. We'll tell you what prompted President Bush to make that promise. That's all new in the next hour of DAYBREAK.
Also, are you tired of paying big time for a change of plans? We'll tell you which airlines will give you a break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COSTELLO: It is time to check our "Web Clicks" this morning, what stories are getting your attention on our Web site, CNN.com.
The most popular story on CNN.com right now, -- Rob,...
MARCIANO: What's that?
COSTELLO: ... is about this radio station. The entire staff of this radio station in New York City, Hot 97, was pulled off the air for running a song that ridiculed victims of the tsunami in south Asia. Jack Cafferty was talking about this yesterday.
MARCIANO: Really?
COSTELLO: It was an awful song.
MARCIANO: Why would you even make a song, let alone play one like that?
COSTELLO: And why would you ever think it would be funny? This song used racial slurs to describe people swept away in the disaster, made jokes about child slavery and people watching their mothers die. You can hear God laughing. Swim you bitches, swim was one line in that song, and it was sung by the staff. So I think that entire staff is out right now.
MARCIANO: Deservedly so.
COSTELLO: Exactly.
The second most popular story on CNN.com is about this incident on a Southwest Airlines flight.
MARCIANO: What did he do?
COSTELLO: Well...
MARCIANO: This guy looks like a criminal. I guess he got in trouble, this guy right here.
COSTELLO: He got in big trouble. He actually stood up on a flight from Philadelphia to West Palm Beach and tried to get into the cockpit after complaining about the government. He supposedly allegedly exchanged blows with a flight attendant, and then the passengers got up and they calmed him down. They used duct tape to tie him up. The pilot...
MARCIANO: That's not a good idea nowadays to attack the cockpit and be mumbling about the government.
COSTELLO: No, and if you try to get in the cockpit, the passengers will take action, and they certainly did. In fact, the pilot didn't even bother to call in an emergency because the passengers -- well, the passengers took care of it.
MARCIANO: I love it.
COSTELLO: The third most popular story on CNN.com was about this British man who is trying to sell a deactivated Soviet era missile on eBay.
MARCIANO: OK, so it's deactivated, what's the big deal?
COSTELLO: What's the big deal? Because apparently it was listed beside the launching mechanism. And you're not allowed to, for whatever reason on eBay, put them side by side. But if he lists them separately, he's allowed to do that. So you can still bid on that deactivated Soviet era missile if you'd like it.
MARCIANO: Rules, rules, rules.
COSTELLO: Exactly.
The next hour of DAYBREAK starts right now. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
