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CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports

Pentagon Announces New Contract for Presidential Helicopters; Iraqis Abroad Vote, Insurgents Get Violent at Home; Americans Kidnapped, Killed Along U.S./Mexico Border; Seven-Year-Old Found Stabbed in School

Aired January 28, 2005 - 17:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now, the first fleet. The Pentagon has just announced a new contract for a fleet of Marine One presidential helicopters. They're worth $1.6 billion of your taxpayer dollars. We'll tell you who won and who just lost.
Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Ballots and bombs. Iraqis abroad are already voting as insurgents try to sabotage the vote at home.

CNN on the scene. Our correspondents Christiane Amanpour, Nic Robertson and Jeff Koinange bring you the stories from Iraq.

Missing in Mexico, Americans kidnapped or killed along the border. Worries and a warning.

In a quiet village, a first grader is found murdered, a shocking crime and a more shocking allegation.

Will Kennedy compromise? You've heard what he thinks of the president's plan for Iraq. Now, hear what the senator tells me about administration plans for your Social Security.

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Friday, January 28, 2005.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Outside Iraq, expatriates began casting their ballots today. Inside Iraq, insurgents passed out leaflets, vowing, and I'm quoting now, "Wash Baghdad's streets with voters' blood."

Ahead of Sunday's election they stepped up their attacks on police and polling stations, but Americans are paying a heavy price as well. Five U.S. soldiers were killed today in and around the capital. And a U.S. helicopter went down today in southwest Baghdad. No word yet on the fate of two-person crew.

We begin our coverage in Baghdad with CNN's Jeff Koinange.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just days to go before a country goes to the polls, trying to shake off decades of dictatorship and months of insurgency. And three significant arrests giving a much needed boost to Iraq's beleaguered government.

Top Iraqi officials announcing that three top lieutenants of the terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi have been arrested. One of them said to be the head of Zarqawi's operations in Baghdad. Even as two car bombs within minutes of each other rocked this battered capital. This one exploded outside a police station in a Baghdad suburb killing four and wounding several others.

A short while later and a few hundred meters away, another suicide car bomber slammed his vehicle into a blast wall outside the school that's been designated as a polling center, detonating himself. No one was killed in this incident. Meanwhile, several thousand miles and a world away, Iraqis were dancing their way to what they're hoping will be a new democracy. These are Iraqi expatriates living in Australia, and they became the first to cast their votes ahead of the crucial Sunday poll. Many here, like 47-year-old Yohana Hamis (ph) agrees this has been a long time coming.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Long, long time. We've been waiting for long time to this day.

KOINANGE: But many outside of Iraq still seem reluctant to go out and vote. Only a quarter of the estimated one million Iraqi expatriates registered to vote in 14 countries around the world. In neighboring Iran, Iraq's largest population outside the country is expected to vote in numbers. Many here are Shias long suppressed by years of Saddam Hussein's rule. Some here are hoping Sunday's poll proves a turning point.

"We have come today to vote for a future of Iraq aimed at having an Islamic republic," she says.

Back in Iraq, it's a different story, at least on paper. The Independent Electoral Commission says just under 13 million Iraqis have registered to vote and it expects a high turnout. But just how many local voters will eventually turn out is still questionable. Especially as polling centers like these two schools targeted late Thursday in Baghdad continue to be attacked.

(on camera): Some families living near schools have left home to stay with relatives in case there's violence on polling day while others are stocking up on food because of the extended curfew, the heightened security and the overall uncertainty. Jeff Koinange, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Oppressed for decades by the regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Kurds want to keep control over their own affairs but they're embracing the election as the way to do that. Our senior international correspondent Nic Robertson reports from Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTL. CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Quite a carnival atmosphere on the streets. Earlier a lot of young men driving their cars, honking the horns, waving flags, a lot of excitement about the elections. A lot of people we're talking to, particularly the young people very excited, saying they will go out and vote.

I talked a little earlier on with the interior minister here. He told me that ballot boxes were already going out to the balloting stations. He said that there are concerns about security. That they do suspect that insurgents might try and target some of the polling stations. He said he had taken security steps. But also, he said that he expected the Kurdish people to be very very vigilant and as they always are in this area, looking out for other Kurds' interests and essentially reporting anything that they see that's out of the ordinary.

The two main political parties here are longtime rivals, have joined forces and now fighting this election on the same ticket. They anticipate perhaps getting as many as a quarter of the seats in the new Iraqi assembly. If they manage to do that, they hope to get one of the top positions in the country, perhaps one of the three presidency positions. That's what they're hoping for.

Many of the Kurds that we're talking to here say they will vote for Kurdish candidates. They want representation that's going to look after Kurdish interests. They don't want a repetition of Saddam Hussein's government who they saw as abusing the Kurds, gassing the Kurds back in 1988.

So they're looking for a very strong candidate who's going to represent their interests in the new Iraqi government. The big worry amongst Kurds, however, beyond the security issues is the weather. This is a very mountainous region, and they're afraid if there are heavy snowfalls the roads could be blocked and many of the Kurds may not get to the polls. And of course, it's critical that they get out as many voters as possible to get as many seats as possible in that national assembly. Nic Robertson, CNN, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: An Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International poll just out this hour shows Iraq's ethnic groups are deeply divided over Sunday's elections and over the future of the country. Seventy-six percent of Sunni Arabs say they definitely will not vote on Sunday. But 80 percent of Shiites say they are likely to vote or will definitely vote, as do 57 percent of Kurds. Fifty-three percent of the Sunnis polled say they believe the ongoing attacks in Iraq are a legitimate form of resistance. The analyst James Zogby warns the divisions may tear Iraq apart saying, in his words, "the closest comparison to America isn't the red and blue states, but rather the election of 1860 before the U.S. Civil War. The polls show Sunnis and Shiites do agree on one thing, they want U.S. forces to withdraw." With insurgents promising a bloodbath, can Iraq manage to hold a successful election? Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt was the chief military spokesman in Iraq. He is now deputy director for plans and policy with the U.S. military central command. He's joining us now live from Tampa, Florida.

General, thanks very much for joining us. What's your bottom line assessment? Is this going to work on Sunday?

BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, U.S. ARMY: Well, it's going to work on Sunday. There will be violence between now and the election on Sunday. But our estimate is that it's going to be episodic and it's going to be isolated. And the vast majority of people in Iraq will be able to vote safely, securely without violence.

BLITZER: What about in the so-called Sunni Triangle, the area where the insurgents, largely Sunnis, have been most active?

KIMMITT: It's clear that the strategy the insurgents and terrorists has been to try to intimidate the Sunni population, try to delegitimize the election by causing a boycott of the Sunnis. They were unable to turn the elections back. They were unable to stop the elections.

So clearly, they're trying to intimidate the Sunni population. But I think we're going to be surprised by the Sunni turnout on Sunday. I think we're going to see a meaningful representation. In any case, it's clear that the government post-election will find a place for Sunni representation in most of the significant decisions that are going to be happening over the next year.

BLITZER: What kind of orders have you given the U.S. military, the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq right now? How visible do you want them to be, for example on Sunday?

KIMMITT: Well, the first visibility, the first people that the Iraqis are going to see are the Iraqi security forces. They will provide the point protection at the polling sites and some of the overwatch protection. This is an Iraqi election so it's appropriate for them to be doing the security. The U.S. forces will be out and about. They'll be in an area protection mode, in overwatch as well. And able to respond if the Iraqis ask for assistance, but this will be an Iraqi security force-led operation.

BLITZER: What does that mean, area protection mode?

KIMMITT: I think you're going to see them outside the city areas, outside, away from the polling sites, in the roads leading up to the area where the polling sites are taking place, where the voting is taking place. You may see some checkpoints, but by and large, the role will be less visible than that of the Iraqi security forces.

BLITZER: There have been lots of articles in the newspapers, and I'm sure you've seen a lot of them, suggesting that after the elections, the day after, the weeks after, we're going to see a different mode, if you will, for the U.S. military in Iraq. More training, for example, for Iraqi forces, less U.S. forces going out there with an aggressive hunt for insurgents.

KIMMITT: Well, that's true. And that's the right way to take it forward. It has less to do with the elections, more of the capability -- the current capability of the Iraqi security forces. They're now well equipped, they've been well trained in basic training. But they need to season, they need more maturity. They need more mentoring. The U.S. forces and the coalition forces are going to embed within the Iraqi security forces for two purposes, one to provide mentoring and leadership as well as, two, to provide additional assets should those forces need those, such as close air support, artillery support. But there will be a push to making the Iraqi security force more capable, let them take the lead in combat operations and take more of a mentoring role in the future.

BLITZER: We've heard all sorts of numbers thrown around out there. How many Iraqi forces right now are ready to go, are really trained and are motivated? Joe Biden, the senator, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said 4,000, others saying more. What is your estimate representing the U.S. military Central Command?

KIMMITT: Well, between the Iraqi police and the military forces, we certainly have more than 100,000 trained, equipped and out there. You'll see probably most of them on the streets on election day. And although some units vary in terms of capability, certainly the vast majority of those forces are prepared to defend their country.

BLITZER: Is there an exit strategy in a sense, when do you believe -- and you're doing planning down the road, when will the Iraqis be ready to really take over and the U.S. begin to significantly withdraw from Iraq?

KIMMITT: That really is conditions based. We see it happening over the next year, over the next two years. I think probably the best estimate is not a matter of days or weeks. It's probably months, if not years. And it will be more gradual than simply one day waking up and having the Iraqi security forces take over for the coalition forces.

It will be a gradual process. It will happen more quickly in some units and less quickly in other units. But we're determined to stand by our fellow Iraqi soldiers, stand shoulder to shoulder with them and take the time necessary, so that when we do pass the baton of responsibility on, they're ready to handle it.

BLITZER: We've seen a lot of car bombings in Iraq, as you well know. And we're going to show our viewers some new pictures we just got in of a most recent car bombing. But this whole -- and these are devastating. The insurgents are saying they're going to go, simply ram their cars into these polling stations once the location of these 5,000-plus polling stations are announced tomorrow, that must be a huge worry for you.

KIMMITT: Well, it's a concern for us that there will be some level of violence on election day. We believe the Iraqi security forces are prepared for it. The coalition forces are prepared for it. There will be violence on election day. But again, at 5,500 polling stations, we estimate that 95-plus percent of them will not see violence on that day.

BLITZER: General Kimmitt, as usual, thanks very much for joining us. Good luck to you. Good luck to all the men and women over there in Iraq, we appreciate it.

KIMMITT: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: Now, we're getting this story just into CNN right now, the competition is now over. It was a spirited fight for the contract to build a new fleet of Marine One presidential helicopters. Our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre is standing by with the news -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're making the announcement right at this hour, Wolf. And the winner is Lockheed Martin over Sikorsky. Lockheed Martin's proposal to build something they call the U.S. 101 helicopter. It is based on a British and Italian design. In fact, two-thirds of the helicopter, including the fuselage, the blades, and some of the gearboxes, will be built in Europe, one-third in Europe, two-thirds in the United States.

It's a bitter disappointment for Sikorsky who had touted their all-American helicopter. Their helicopter was called the Superhawk. It was touted as having the latest up-to-date safety equipment to protect the president, and built in Connecticut, in the United States. And a bitter disappointment. In fact, this election was cheered by members of the New York Senatorial delegation because it will bring jobs to Owego.

But Sikorsky, which is in Connecticut, today a statement from Senator Joseph Lieberman, saying that this decision was not just disappointing, he said, it is outrageously wrong, he vows to fight it. And he said that the commander-in-chief should fly in the best helicopter made in America.

So the decision has been made by the U.S. Navy, 23 helicopters, $1.6 billion, but it sounds like the political wrangling is not over yet.

BLITZER: Is there some payback to Britain and Italy, two allies of the Bush admistration in the war in Iraq? Tony Blair, as you know, actively lobbied on behalf of the European version, if you will, of this helicopter.

MCINTYRE: Well, in briefing, how they made the decision, Navy officials insisted that that was not a factor. Both helicopters met the requirement to have a certain amount of it made in the United States. So that was set aside. The decision was made purely on technical capability, cost, past experience of the contractors and the ability to produce a helicopter that met the White House requirements on time and under budget. They say that's why they went with the Lockheed Martin model.

BLITZER: All right. Jamie McIntyre, with important news, significant news, I suspect there's going to be a controversy over this decision. Appreciate it very much, Jamie.

When we come back, can U.S. intelligence on Iran's nuclear ambitions be trusted? Senator Edward Kennedy weighs in on that and the future of the Democratic Party after their major disappointment in 2004. Does he support Howard Dean?

Missing in Mexico, an increase in American abductions along the border leads to a new travel issued by the State Department.

And a small town is shocked after a 7-year-old is found dead in her school. Also disturbing, the man who's charged in the crime.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Today, we continue our interview with Senator Edward Kennedy. Yesterday, the Massachusetts Democrat talked about the war in Iraq. Today, Kennedy blasts President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security.

But we started out talking about Iran's nuclear program.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: I don't think -- you know, there's really not much of a question that they're attempting to develop a nuclear capability. I mean, I think that's more or less available in terms of the public. There's refinements in that in terms of the briefings that they have. I think it is enormously important that the kinds of negotiations that are taking place with the Europeans and the Iranians continue at a very very high level. And that the utilizations of the range of carrots and sticks that are available to the Europeans and to the United States be used in every possible way in order to avoid the nuclearization of Iran.

BLITZER: I asked the question because of the credibility of the U.S. intelligence community. So much of that information leading up to the war in Iraq proved to be wrong...

KENNEDY: Well, if you're asking about is there sufficient kind of intelligence that's made available to us that's a threat to our national security? No. That hasn't at least been presented to the armed services committee. If that's what you're asking. Well, what was represented by the administration that Iraq was a threat because of nuclear weapons, the ties with al Qaeda and the drone planes that they thought might be launched here offshore or something like that and we were under an immediate kind of threat. I have not heard that kind of intelligence as a member of the armed services committee.

And I don't believe the administration is really engaged like they should be in both -- because I think there's an enormous division within the administration as to what to do.

BLITZER: Let's spend a few minutes talking about some domestic issues. Social Security. One of the most attractive elements of the president's proposal for a lot of Americans for Social Security reform, the private retirement accounts, is that someone works for 40 years, gets to be 65 years old. You work hard, you put money into those private accounts. And after 40, 45 years, it could be a couple hundred thousand dollars potentially assuming the stock market continues to do what it's been doing historically over the past 50, 70 years. That money is eligible to be transferred to heirs. You can leave it to your children whereas, right now, Social Security, once you die, you've contributed for all those decades. That money doesn't go to your heirs. Isn't that something that a lot of workers would find very attractive?

KENNEDY: Well, where are you taking your private accounts out of, are you taking it out of Social Security now?

BLITZER: You're taking the money (UNINTELLIGIBLE) two percent, three percent. That's what the president's proposing.

KENNEDY: Well, let's get back to what that is. That means that there are -- first of all, Social Security is not in crisis today. It's good until 2047. And the representation that it's in crisis is not accurate, number one.

BLITZER: Even though President Clinton in '98 suggested there was a crisis.

KENNEDY: Let's look at what the facts are at the present time. I'm taking the figures from the trustees. So it's not in crisis, number one. If you're talking about supplementary accounts, as Bill Clinton did, supplementary private kind of accounts, I support that. But if you're talking about what this president is doing, and that means there would be a reduction of Social Security payments, about a third, in order to have private individual accounts that may go up or may not go up, I think, does not make sense.

Franklin Roosevelt made the commitment to the American people that Social Security is going to be there for them. I think that we should attend the outer years issues, and we can do that. I think this idea that we're going to borrow two trillion more dollars, reduce the benefits by a third and speculate that the market may go up is not the kind of risks that seniors in my state have told me that they are prepared to take.

BLITZER: How far are you going to go to fight this?

KENNEDY: Well, I think it's a basic and very very fundamental issue.

BLITZER: In other word, is there some common ground for Social Security reform? You got together with the president on education, No Child Left Behind. Is there an area, some Social Security reform where you and the president can reach some sort of compromise?

KENNEDY: I would think, if you're talking about the outer years, we are talking about beyond 2048, in terms of its basic payments, yes. Outside of 2048, it will still now pay 75 percent of the benefits to even today. If you wanted to raise the earnings rate above the $87,000, you'd take care of about 75 percent for another 30 years. If you want to talk about that, Mr. President, we'll be glad to talk about it. But we're not going to threaten the kind of commitment that Franklin Roosevelt and Social Security provides. For retirement, you have Social Security, you get some retirement moneys hopefully which are necessary, which augment and supplement and pensions. Those are the three elements for American retirees. And we're not going to undercut that kind of retirement by threatening Social Security. I'm certainly not.

BLITZER: Do you want Howard Dean, your fellow New Englander to be the face of the Democratic party, the new chairman of the DNC?

KENNEDY: He says selected. I don't have a candidate. I think this is one of those marvelous times where we have a number of different candidates, the others not as well-known as Howard Dean. And they go into these regional meetings. I hear the regional meetings are enormously well attended. And I think that that's good. I think what the Democrats have to do is start moving south, as well as west. I think when we have states, Mississippi, 43 percent that are minority and only half of those registered, why aren't we out there trying to register people that ought to be participating in our system. And I think there are a lot of different things besides the newer technologies. I'm interested in what they can do.

Beyond that, I think a new chairman ought to be involved in organization and organization structure and building the party so that a candidate can develop his or her financial base.

BLITZER: It sounds to me like Senator Kennedy is not going to be easy at all in this stage in your career?

KENNEDY: There's a lot going on out there. And I think the Democrats ought to be prepared to accept the challenge that the Republicans give to us in values. And I think we as Democrats ought to say that we're going to prepare everyone in this country to deal with the issues of globalization, every man, woman, and child in our country. Make sure we're going to have a secure economy and have the kind of national defense which is essential for us to survive.

BLITZER: Senator Kennedy, as usual, thanks very much.

KENNEDY: Thanks very much. Good to see you.

BLITZER: And this programming note, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will be my special guest this weekend on "LATE EDITION." The last word in Sunday talk. We have a special four-hour "LATE EDITION" in conjunction with Iraq's elections. That's Sunday, Noon Eastern, here on CNN.

Americans abducted. Alarm over a recent rise in kidnappings along the U.S./Mexican border. The State Department issues a warning.

Also ahead...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ...it is a lot because this is the first time I ever got the chance to select what I want or vote what do I -- the person or the party that we want.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Voting around the world. Iraqi expatriates cast their ballots. But will the election go as smoothly in Iraq?

Plus, first it was Vioxx now there are new troubles for the pharmaceutical company Merck. We'll tell you what they are.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.

Mexico's government is reacting to the latest travel warnings from the U.S. State Department. That warning says violent crimes against Americans, including dozens of kidnappings, has increased along the border.

CNN's Brian Todd is joining us here in Washington with more on this story -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, State Department officials stress they're working closely with Mexican authorities to address this problem. But the recent violence along the border has clearly sparked tension between the two governments and has families pleading for help from both sides.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): Yvette Martinez is a single mother who her parents believe just turned 28 years old. We say they believe that because they haven't seen Yvette since September 17. On that day, Yvette and her friend, Brenda Cisneros, went from their homes in Laredo, Texas, across the border to Nuevo Laredo, Mexico.

They were heading to a concert to celebrate Brenda's 23rd birthday and disappeared. Their case is by no means isolated.

RICHARD BOUCHER, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: At least 27 American citizens have been abducted along the border over the past six months.

TODD: Of those, State Department officials say two people have been killed, 14 released and 11 remain missing. Why? U.S. diplomatic and law enforcement officials say it's a turf battle between drug cartels in the area, with innocents caught up in a sideline business, kidnap and ransom. It's gotten so bad that the State Department has issued a travel warning.

BOUCHER: We do feel it's important to tell Americans about the security situation near the border.

TODD: U.S. law enforcement officials tell CNN Mexican police are doing very little about the problem. The Mexican president's office took issue with both the warning and the criticism of its actions -- quote -- "Mexico is taking determined action against drug trafficking. Mexico's government cannot permit any foreign government to judge or express itself regarding policy actions undertaken to deal with its problems."

CNN spoke to the new mayor of Nuevo Laredo, who says his office is forming a special police task force to patrol areas frequented by cross-border visitors.

DANIEL PENA, MAYOR OF NUEVO LAREDO, MEXICO (through translator): We are concerned about every human being, every citizen, whether they are a resident in Nuevo Laredo or they are visiting us.

TODD: But the mayor also told CNN he believes most, if not all of the people kidnapped are likely involved in drugs, a view not shared by the U.S. Consul in Nuevo Laredo.

MICHAEL YODER, U.S. CONSUL: The conventional wisdom in the community, not in the consulate, but in the community, had been that people were fairly safe as long as they weren't actually involved in the narcotics trafficking trade that passes through here. But once we had learned that people were being kidnapped for ransom and given the numbers involved, We thought it was important to provide that information.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Yvette Martinez's stepfather tells us she was not involved in drugs. And she challenges the mayor of Nuevo Laredo to prove it -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Very disturbing.

Thanks very much, Brian Todd, for that report, though.

And to our viewers, for more on this important story, please be sure to watch "ANDERSON COOPER 360" Monday night for a special report, "Kidnapped, Killed and Missing," an in-depth look at missing Americans in Mexico. That airs Monday night 7:00 p.m. Eastern only here on CNN.

Iraq prepares to vote. Our Christiane Amanpour is there with an inside look at the preparations.

Plus, this:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's something that I'm doing for my country. I know I'm trying to help it and make it secure.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Iraqi expatriates already casting ballots around the world. We'll show you what's going on.

And a 7-year-old stabbed to death in a school bathroom. Now there's a shocking arrest.

Plus, castaways on a tiny island, who are they? And how did they get there?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. Iraqis preparing for Sunday's election. Some say it looks like they're really preparing for a war. We'll get to that.

First, though, some other stories now in the news; 32 people plucked from a very small island off Miami tell Border Patrol agents they're from Cuba. Now U.S. officials are trying to determine how they got there. Officials say all the migrants are in good health. Cubans who reach U.S. soil are generally allowed to stay.

More troubles for Merck. A federal appeals court has ruled the drugmakers' patent on a popular osteoporosis drug, Fosamax, should expire 10 years earlier than projected. The ruling means generic versions of Fosamax could be on the market in 2008. Merck also announced federal regulators are looking into its withdraw of the arthritis drug Vioxx.

More now on our top story, the upcoming Iraqi election this Sunday. Voting in the country is scheduled to start in a little more than 24 hours from now. And the mood right now in Baghdad, a mixture of fear and defiance.

Our chief international correspondent, Christiane Amanpour, is there.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Iraq's election commission members display the voting boxes and show how people should cast their ballots in private, behind these booths. That's if they dare to show up.

With all this violence, Iraq looks more like it's preparing for war than elections, with people waiting in long lines to stockpile everything from fuel to bread.

"They're buying more, because they're afraid," says Ahmed (ph) the baker. "All the shops will be closed for three to four days."

A strict election lockdown is about to be enforced, so people are buying up basics, essential foods and water. It's happening at hospitals, too, with doctors preparing to spend the nights in their offices, preparing for possible widespread bloodshed.

(on camera): The roads are already virtually deserted ahead of the election lockdown to prevent suicide car bombers. But in some Baghdad neighborhoods, these anonymous leaflets are being dropped. They give -- quote -- "a final warning" to voters to stay away from the polls. They claim to have rockets, mortars and explosives ready for every polling station.

(voice-over): But, in some parts of Baghdad, you sense a spirit of defiance as the election draws near. "This is important for all Iraqis for us to have democracy,' says this man. "We are not afraid of the dangers. We must vote." With two days to go before the vote, election workers and party political agents are coming out of hiding, hooting, honking and handing out leaflets, even though their colleagues have been threatened and killed during the election campaign. Newspapers have only just printed the names of all 7,000 candidates after weeks of official secrecy because of fears they would be assassinated. And so people now are eagerly digesting what amounts to a crash course in what to do at the voting booth.

"We support the election," says Hamid (ph). "This is the only way for our country to be stable."

"Iraqis need some strong medicine to cure the violence and chaos that have plagued them since the war," says Sheik Saad al Ubadi (ph). "Since when do we live like this?" he said. We're the richest oil country. We need to vote for someone to represent this country and to protect its people.

Christiane Amanpour, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Voting has begun for Iraqi expatriates around the world. About 26,000 Iraqis are registered to vote here in the United States. There are five polling stations scattered across the country in Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, Los Angeles, and suburban Washington, D.C. Security was tight at the polling station in the Detroit suburb of Southgate. In Nashville, an Iraqi who flew in from Dallas to cast his ballot called the election one of the greatest events in Iraqi history.

The United States is one of 14 countries where Iraqi expatriates are voting. Here's a look at voting in some of the other countries in a special edition of "Around the World."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): The very first vote in the Iraqi election was cast in Australia by an Iraqi expatriate who described himself as -- quote -- "very excited, very happy." About 10 percent of the Iraqi expatriates living in Syria were expected to vote. The only Syrian polling location is in Damascus.

In Turkey, about 5 percent of the Iraqi expatriates are registered to vote. There are two polling stations in Istanbul. And there is one in Ankara.

About 150,000 Iraqi expatriates live in Britain, but only a few thousand are registered there. One London voter criticized Iraqis who aren't register, saying to them -- quote -- "You've lost your chance."

And that's our look around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: And here's your turn to weigh in on the story. Our Web question of the day is this. Would you vote on Sunday if you were an Iraqi? Be honest. You can vote right now. Go to CNN.com. We'll have the results later in this broadcast.

Now a clarification of a story we reported earlier today here on CNN. It involves last September's school massacre in Beslan, Russia. A Russian parliamentary commission is investigating the massacre. The head of that commission has accused some Russian officials of complicity in the attack.

Because of a translation error, CNN incorrectly reported that Russian military officials were under suspicion. In fact, it's Russian law enforcement officials who are under suspicion. Authorities say two suspects have been detained. Three more are being sought. And preparations are now under way to detain two more.

The importance of post-election spin and the political implications of the Iraqi elections in the United States. Our Carlos Watson is standing by. He has "The Inside Edge" on that and more.

And up next, a young girl slain, her body found inside her school, a small town shocked by the person authorities believe is responsible. Our Mary Snow is now on the scene. She'll join us live.

That's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Police are calling it a horrific crime, a 7-year-old girl found stabbed to death in a bathroom at her school. Now her father is under arrest and charged with the murder.

CNN's Mary Snow is on the story for us. She's joining us live from Highland Falls in Upstate New York -- Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, this town is in shock. The police say they do not have a motive.

Christopher Rhodes is accused of murdering his daughter. Rhodes' attorney says that his client is -- quote -- "positively, absolutely not guilty." He says that Rhodes lived for his daughter. Today, young and old alike are trying to come to terms with this horrible tragedy.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW (voice-over): ... 7-year-old Jerica Rhodes now dot the school gates outside Sacred Heart of Jesus School. But here in this tiny town of Highland Falls, there are questions, but no answers to explain why the little girl was murdered and found stabbed inside her Catholic school Thursday morning.

Her grandfather, Linwood Rhodes.

LINWOOD RHODES, VICTIM'S GRANDFATHER: I just cannot conceive someone doing this to a lovely 7-year-old child.

SNOW: Rhodes refused to answer questions about his 27-year-old son, Christopher, the girl's father, who was arrested and charged with second-degree murder. Police say he was seen taking the girl inside the school Tuesday. And they say he was later treated at a hospital for wounds to his hand.

The girl's grandfather, who is the town's former police chief, said he and his wife raised the little girl.

RHODES: There is nothing between my wife, my son, not anyone else that I'm aware that caused this. And I'm talking nothing. There was no type of friction, argument. There was no -- there was nothing.

SNOW: The 240 students in Jerica's school met with counselors today, and so did parents. The school had a lockdown following the discovery of Jerica's body Thursday, not knowing what had happened. Now parents like Mary Birgoni try to answer her daughter's questions.

MARY BIRGONI, PARENT: If the doctor has a pill that could bring her -- make her wake up again, make Jerica wake up.

SNOW: In this town of 4,000 that sits alongside West Point's military academy, the mayor says he can't remember the last homicide here in his 12 years in office. Now, he says, it's his job to act as counselor to the town and he says he'll turn to faith.

JOSEPH D'ONOFRIO, MAYOR OF HIGHLAND FALLS: We're going to shed some tears and we're going to be OK.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW: Again, the suspect's attorney is saying that his client is not guilty. The little girl is expected to be buried next week. The school where she attended is expected to resume classes Monday with grief counselors on hand. And a grand jury is expected to start hearing testimony next week -- Wolf.

BLITZER: What a heartbreaking story, indeed. Mary Snow reporting for us -- Mary, thank you very much.

State of the Union. What can we expect to hear in the president's address to the nation next Wednesday night? Our Carlos Watson joins us. That's coming up next. He's got "The Inside Edge."

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Time now for "The Inside Edge."

CNN political analyst Carlos Watson is joining us now live from Los Angeles.

Carlos, what are you hearing about the president's State of the Union address next Wednesday night before a joint session of the U.S. Congress?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Three big things to think about, Wolf.

One, the president clearly needs a memorial line when he discusses Social Security, which will be the heart of his domestic agenda. It's got to be a memorial line that when it ends up on the cover of the "USA Today" or other local papers will help to begin to change people's minds.

Two, when it comes to convincing members of Congress, while we're hearing a lot of from members of the Senate, some of them like Olympia Snowe from Maine suggesting some opposition, where he could really have a sticky time is with the House of Representatives. So that's really the place you want to watch their reaction.

And then, last but not least, while he's addressing Congress, the group that may help him the most is actually the Republican National Committee, a non-congressional group, who, while they normally focus on politics, is increasingly becoming helpful in supporting the president's policy agenda. So what do I mean?

Sending out e-mails, putting together commercials, reaching out to members of the press. So, follow the RNC in their new role in helping the president try and pass some of what he discusses.

BLITZER: All right, Carlos, the Iraqi elections this Sunday, what are some of the subtexts that you think are at play for the U.S.?

WATSON: Well, certainly for the president, there's an opportunity not only to lose political capital, but to gain it. And a lot of that will be decided by the post-election spin.

Do people say that a third of Iraqis -- only a third of Iraqis vote, or will they say that five million people in the Arab world turned out to vote? Both would be true. But, depending on how you say it, it's got different connotations.

Second, we can't forget that maybe one of the biggest subthemes of the Bush doctrine, if you will, something that doesn't get talked about a lot, but could be on display this Sunday, is the empowerment of women. If you go back to what happened in Afghanistan in terms of more women participating in a place where that normally didn't happen and now potentially in Iraq, that could be a big part of the president's long-term legacy.

BLITZER: Let's talk about one of your two senators. You live in California. Senator Barbara Boxer, the last couple of weeks, she's made a big splash. What do you make of this?

WATSON: Well, what's interesting, Wolf, is that, when you look in the Congress, Barbara Boxer is representing the old Paul Wellstone Democratic wing of the Democratic Party challenging the president.

Howard Dean is doing it in his bid for the DNC chair. But while you may think that they may have their biggest effect only on Democrats, they're changing the debate and maybe encouraging other Republicans to be more assertive vs. the president. So, while they may not agree with the substance of what Barbara Boxer said, when you start to think about Congress vs. the presidency, instead of just Democrat vs. Republican, she may be the harbinger of a bigger movement which is standing up to the president.

BLITZER: Carlos Watson with "The Inside Edge," he joins us every Friday here on this program -- Carlos, thanks very much.

WATSON: Good to see you.

BLITZER: And when we come back, we'll have the results of our Web question of the day. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Here's how you're weighing in on our Web question of the day. Would you vote on Sunday if you were an Iraqi? Sixty-six percent you said yes; 34 percent said no. Remember, though, this is not a scientific poll.

And please stay with CNN for live coverage of the elections in Iraq on Sunday. I'll be here Sunday at noon Eastern for "LATE EDITION." Among my guests, the Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. We'll have four hours of "LATE EDITION."

That's it for me. "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Aired January 28, 2005 - 17:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now, the first fleet. The Pentagon has just announced a new contract for a fleet of Marine One presidential helicopters. They're worth $1.6 billion of your taxpayer dollars. We'll tell you who won and who just lost.
Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Ballots and bombs. Iraqis abroad are already voting as insurgents try to sabotage the vote at home.

CNN on the scene. Our correspondents Christiane Amanpour, Nic Robertson and Jeff Koinange bring you the stories from Iraq.

Missing in Mexico, Americans kidnapped or killed along the border. Worries and a warning.

In a quiet village, a first grader is found murdered, a shocking crime and a more shocking allegation.

Will Kennedy compromise? You've heard what he thinks of the president's plan for Iraq. Now, hear what the senator tells me about administration plans for your Social Security.

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Friday, January 28, 2005.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Outside Iraq, expatriates began casting their ballots today. Inside Iraq, insurgents passed out leaflets, vowing, and I'm quoting now, "Wash Baghdad's streets with voters' blood."

Ahead of Sunday's election they stepped up their attacks on police and polling stations, but Americans are paying a heavy price as well. Five U.S. soldiers were killed today in and around the capital. And a U.S. helicopter went down today in southwest Baghdad. No word yet on the fate of two-person crew.

We begin our coverage in Baghdad with CNN's Jeff Koinange.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just days to go before a country goes to the polls, trying to shake off decades of dictatorship and months of insurgency. And three significant arrests giving a much needed boost to Iraq's beleaguered government.

Top Iraqi officials announcing that three top lieutenants of the terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi have been arrested. One of them said to be the head of Zarqawi's operations in Baghdad. Even as two car bombs within minutes of each other rocked this battered capital. This one exploded outside a police station in a Baghdad suburb killing four and wounding several others.

A short while later and a few hundred meters away, another suicide car bomber slammed his vehicle into a blast wall outside the school that's been designated as a polling center, detonating himself. No one was killed in this incident. Meanwhile, several thousand miles and a world away, Iraqis were dancing their way to what they're hoping will be a new democracy. These are Iraqi expatriates living in Australia, and they became the first to cast their votes ahead of the crucial Sunday poll. Many here, like 47-year-old Yohana Hamis (ph) agrees this has been a long time coming.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Long, long time. We've been waiting for long time to this day.

KOINANGE: But many outside of Iraq still seem reluctant to go out and vote. Only a quarter of the estimated one million Iraqi expatriates registered to vote in 14 countries around the world. In neighboring Iran, Iraq's largest population outside the country is expected to vote in numbers. Many here are Shias long suppressed by years of Saddam Hussein's rule. Some here are hoping Sunday's poll proves a turning point.

"We have come today to vote for a future of Iraq aimed at having an Islamic republic," she says.

Back in Iraq, it's a different story, at least on paper. The Independent Electoral Commission says just under 13 million Iraqis have registered to vote and it expects a high turnout. But just how many local voters will eventually turn out is still questionable. Especially as polling centers like these two schools targeted late Thursday in Baghdad continue to be attacked.

(on camera): Some families living near schools have left home to stay with relatives in case there's violence on polling day while others are stocking up on food because of the extended curfew, the heightened security and the overall uncertainty. Jeff Koinange, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Oppressed for decades by the regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Kurds want to keep control over their own affairs but they're embracing the election as the way to do that. Our senior international correspondent Nic Robertson reports from Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTL. CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Quite a carnival atmosphere on the streets. Earlier a lot of young men driving their cars, honking the horns, waving flags, a lot of excitement about the elections. A lot of people we're talking to, particularly the young people very excited, saying they will go out and vote.

I talked a little earlier on with the interior minister here. He told me that ballot boxes were already going out to the balloting stations. He said that there are concerns about security. That they do suspect that insurgents might try and target some of the polling stations. He said he had taken security steps. But also, he said that he expected the Kurdish people to be very very vigilant and as they always are in this area, looking out for other Kurds' interests and essentially reporting anything that they see that's out of the ordinary.

The two main political parties here are longtime rivals, have joined forces and now fighting this election on the same ticket. They anticipate perhaps getting as many as a quarter of the seats in the new Iraqi assembly. If they manage to do that, they hope to get one of the top positions in the country, perhaps one of the three presidency positions. That's what they're hoping for.

Many of the Kurds that we're talking to here say they will vote for Kurdish candidates. They want representation that's going to look after Kurdish interests. They don't want a repetition of Saddam Hussein's government who they saw as abusing the Kurds, gassing the Kurds back in 1988.

So they're looking for a very strong candidate who's going to represent their interests in the new Iraqi government. The big worry amongst Kurds, however, beyond the security issues is the weather. This is a very mountainous region, and they're afraid if there are heavy snowfalls the roads could be blocked and many of the Kurds may not get to the polls. And of course, it's critical that they get out as many voters as possible to get as many seats as possible in that national assembly. Nic Robertson, CNN, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: An Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International poll just out this hour shows Iraq's ethnic groups are deeply divided over Sunday's elections and over the future of the country. Seventy-six percent of Sunni Arabs say they definitely will not vote on Sunday. But 80 percent of Shiites say they are likely to vote or will definitely vote, as do 57 percent of Kurds. Fifty-three percent of the Sunnis polled say they believe the ongoing attacks in Iraq are a legitimate form of resistance. The analyst James Zogby warns the divisions may tear Iraq apart saying, in his words, "the closest comparison to America isn't the red and blue states, but rather the election of 1860 before the U.S. Civil War. The polls show Sunnis and Shiites do agree on one thing, they want U.S. forces to withdraw." With insurgents promising a bloodbath, can Iraq manage to hold a successful election? Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt was the chief military spokesman in Iraq. He is now deputy director for plans and policy with the U.S. military central command. He's joining us now live from Tampa, Florida.

General, thanks very much for joining us. What's your bottom line assessment? Is this going to work on Sunday?

BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, U.S. ARMY: Well, it's going to work on Sunday. There will be violence between now and the election on Sunday. But our estimate is that it's going to be episodic and it's going to be isolated. And the vast majority of people in Iraq will be able to vote safely, securely without violence.

BLITZER: What about in the so-called Sunni Triangle, the area where the insurgents, largely Sunnis, have been most active?

KIMMITT: It's clear that the strategy the insurgents and terrorists has been to try to intimidate the Sunni population, try to delegitimize the election by causing a boycott of the Sunnis. They were unable to turn the elections back. They were unable to stop the elections.

So clearly, they're trying to intimidate the Sunni population. But I think we're going to be surprised by the Sunni turnout on Sunday. I think we're going to see a meaningful representation. In any case, it's clear that the government post-election will find a place for Sunni representation in most of the significant decisions that are going to be happening over the next year.

BLITZER: What kind of orders have you given the U.S. military, the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq right now? How visible do you want them to be, for example on Sunday?

KIMMITT: Well, the first visibility, the first people that the Iraqis are going to see are the Iraqi security forces. They will provide the point protection at the polling sites and some of the overwatch protection. This is an Iraqi election so it's appropriate for them to be doing the security. The U.S. forces will be out and about. They'll be in an area protection mode, in overwatch as well. And able to respond if the Iraqis ask for assistance, but this will be an Iraqi security force-led operation.

BLITZER: What does that mean, area protection mode?

KIMMITT: I think you're going to see them outside the city areas, outside, away from the polling sites, in the roads leading up to the area where the polling sites are taking place, where the voting is taking place. You may see some checkpoints, but by and large, the role will be less visible than that of the Iraqi security forces.

BLITZER: There have been lots of articles in the newspapers, and I'm sure you've seen a lot of them, suggesting that after the elections, the day after, the weeks after, we're going to see a different mode, if you will, for the U.S. military in Iraq. More training, for example, for Iraqi forces, less U.S. forces going out there with an aggressive hunt for insurgents.

KIMMITT: Well, that's true. And that's the right way to take it forward. It has less to do with the elections, more of the capability -- the current capability of the Iraqi security forces. They're now well equipped, they've been well trained in basic training. But they need to season, they need more maturity. They need more mentoring. The U.S. forces and the coalition forces are going to embed within the Iraqi security forces for two purposes, one to provide mentoring and leadership as well as, two, to provide additional assets should those forces need those, such as close air support, artillery support. But there will be a push to making the Iraqi security force more capable, let them take the lead in combat operations and take more of a mentoring role in the future.

BLITZER: We've heard all sorts of numbers thrown around out there. How many Iraqi forces right now are ready to go, are really trained and are motivated? Joe Biden, the senator, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said 4,000, others saying more. What is your estimate representing the U.S. military Central Command?

KIMMITT: Well, between the Iraqi police and the military forces, we certainly have more than 100,000 trained, equipped and out there. You'll see probably most of them on the streets on election day. And although some units vary in terms of capability, certainly the vast majority of those forces are prepared to defend their country.

BLITZER: Is there an exit strategy in a sense, when do you believe -- and you're doing planning down the road, when will the Iraqis be ready to really take over and the U.S. begin to significantly withdraw from Iraq?

KIMMITT: That really is conditions based. We see it happening over the next year, over the next two years. I think probably the best estimate is not a matter of days or weeks. It's probably months, if not years. And it will be more gradual than simply one day waking up and having the Iraqi security forces take over for the coalition forces.

It will be a gradual process. It will happen more quickly in some units and less quickly in other units. But we're determined to stand by our fellow Iraqi soldiers, stand shoulder to shoulder with them and take the time necessary, so that when we do pass the baton of responsibility on, they're ready to handle it.

BLITZER: We've seen a lot of car bombings in Iraq, as you well know. And we're going to show our viewers some new pictures we just got in of a most recent car bombing. But this whole -- and these are devastating. The insurgents are saying they're going to go, simply ram their cars into these polling stations once the location of these 5,000-plus polling stations are announced tomorrow, that must be a huge worry for you.

KIMMITT: Well, it's a concern for us that there will be some level of violence on election day. We believe the Iraqi security forces are prepared for it. The coalition forces are prepared for it. There will be violence on election day. But again, at 5,500 polling stations, we estimate that 95-plus percent of them will not see violence on that day.

BLITZER: General Kimmitt, as usual, thanks very much for joining us. Good luck to you. Good luck to all the men and women over there in Iraq, we appreciate it.

KIMMITT: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: Now, we're getting this story just into CNN right now, the competition is now over. It was a spirited fight for the contract to build a new fleet of Marine One presidential helicopters. Our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre is standing by with the news -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're making the announcement right at this hour, Wolf. And the winner is Lockheed Martin over Sikorsky. Lockheed Martin's proposal to build something they call the U.S. 101 helicopter. It is based on a British and Italian design. In fact, two-thirds of the helicopter, including the fuselage, the blades, and some of the gearboxes, will be built in Europe, one-third in Europe, two-thirds in the United States.

It's a bitter disappointment for Sikorsky who had touted their all-American helicopter. Their helicopter was called the Superhawk. It was touted as having the latest up-to-date safety equipment to protect the president, and built in Connecticut, in the United States. And a bitter disappointment. In fact, this election was cheered by members of the New York Senatorial delegation because it will bring jobs to Owego.

But Sikorsky, which is in Connecticut, today a statement from Senator Joseph Lieberman, saying that this decision was not just disappointing, he said, it is outrageously wrong, he vows to fight it. And he said that the commander-in-chief should fly in the best helicopter made in America.

So the decision has been made by the U.S. Navy, 23 helicopters, $1.6 billion, but it sounds like the political wrangling is not over yet.

BLITZER: Is there some payback to Britain and Italy, two allies of the Bush admistration in the war in Iraq? Tony Blair, as you know, actively lobbied on behalf of the European version, if you will, of this helicopter.

MCINTYRE: Well, in briefing, how they made the decision, Navy officials insisted that that was not a factor. Both helicopters met the requirement to have a certain amount of it made in the United States. So that was set aside. The decision was made purely on technical capability, cost, past experience of the contractors and the ability to produce a helicopter that met the White House requirements on time and under budget. They say that's why they went with the Lockheed Martin model.

BLITZER: All right. Jamie McIntyre, with important news, significant news, I suspect there's going to be a controversy over this decision. Appreciate it very much, Jamie.

When we come back, can U.S. intelligence on Iran's nuclear ambitions be trusted? Senator Edward Kennedy weighs in on that and the future of the Democratic Party after their major disappointment in 2004. Does he support Howard Dean?

Missing in Mexico, an increase in American abductions along the border leads to a new travel issued by the State Department.

And a small town is shocked after a 7-year-old is found dead in her school. Also disturbing, the man who's charged in the crime.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Today, we continue our interview with Senator Edward Kennedy. Yesterday, the Massachusetts Democrat talked about the war in Iraq. Today, Kennedy blasts President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security.

But we started out talking about Iran's nuclear program.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: I don't think -- you know, there's really not much of a question that they're attempting to develop a nuclear capability. I mean, I think that's more or less available in terms of the public. There's refinements in that in terms of the briefings that they have. I think it is enormously important that the kinds of negotiations that are taking place with the Europeans and the Iranians continue at a very very high level. And that the utilizations of the range of carrots and sticks that are available to the Europeans and to the United States be used in every possible way in order to avoid the nuclearization of Iran.

BLITZER: I asked the question because of the credibility of the U.S. intelligence community. So much of that information leading up to the war in Iraq proved to be wrong...

KENNEDY: Well, if you're asking about is there sufficient kind of intelligence that's made available to us that's a threat to our national security? No. That hasn't at least been presented to the armed services committee. If that's what you're asking. Well, what was represented by the administration that Iraq was a threat because of nuclear weapons, the ties with al Qaeda and the drone planes that they thought might be launched here offshore or something like that and we were under an immediate kind of threat. I have not heard that kind of intelligence as a member of the armed services committee.

And I don't believe the administration is really engaged like they should be in both -- because I think there's an enormous division within the administration as to what to do.

BLITZER: Let's spend a few minutes talking about some domestic issues. Social Security. One of the most attractive elements of the president's proposal for a lot of Americans for Social Security reform, the private retirement accounts, is that someone works for 40 years, gets to be 65 years old. You work hard, you put money into those private accounts. And after 40, 45 years, it could be a couple hundred thousand dollars potentially assuming the stock market continues to do what it's been doing historically over the past 50, 70 years. That money is eligible to be transferred to heirs. You can leave it to your children whereas, right now, Social Security, once you die, you've contributed for all those decades. That money doesn't go to your heirs. Isn't that something that a lot of workers would find very attractive?

KENNEDY: Well, where are you taking your private accounts out of, are you taking it out of Social Security now?

BLITZER: You're taking the money (UNINTELLIGIBLE) two percent, three percent. That's what the president's proposing.

KENNEDY: Well, let's get back to what that is. That means that there are -- first of all, Social Security is not in crisis today. It's good until 2047. And the representation that it's in crisis is not accurate, number one.

BLITZER: Even though President Clinton in '98 suggested there was a crisis.

KENNEDY: Let's look at what the facts are at the present time. I'm taking the figures from the trustees. So it's not in crisis, number one. If you're talking about supplementary accounts, as Bill Clinton did, supplementary private kind of accounts, I support that. But if you're talking about what this president is doing, and that means there would be a reduction of Social Security payments, about a third, in order to have private individual accounts that may go up or may not go up, I think, does not make sense.

Franklin Roosevelt made the commitment to the American people that Social Security is going to be there for them. I think that we should attend the outer years issues, and we can do that. I think this idea that we're going to borrow two trillion more dollars, reduce the benefits by a third and speculate that the market may go up is not the kind of risks that seniors in my state have told me that they are prepared to take.

BLITZER: How far are you going to go to fight this?

KENNEDY: Well, I think it's a basic and very very fundamental issue.

BLITZER: In other word, is there some common ground for Social Security reform? You got together with the president on education, No Child Left Behind. Is there an area, some Social Security reform where you and the president can reach some sort of compromise?

KENNEDY: I would think, if you're talking about the outer years, we are talking about beyond 2048, in terms of its basic payments, yes. Outside of 2048, it will still now pay 75 percent of the benefits to even today. If you wanted to raise the earnings rate above the $87,000, you'd take care of about 75 percent for another 30 years. If you want to talk about that, Mr. President, we'll be glad to talk about it. But we're not going to threaten the kind of commitment that Franklin Roosevelt and Social Security provides. For retirement, you have Social Security, you get some retirement moneys hopefully which are necessary, which augment and supplement and pensions. Those are the three elements for American retirees. And we're not going to undercut that kind of retirement by threatening Social Security. I'm certainly not.

BLITZER: Do you want Howard Dean, your fellow New Englander to be the face of the Democratic party, the new chairman of the DNC?

KENNEDY: He says selected. I don't have a candidate. I think this is one of those marvelous times where we have a number of different candidates, the others not as well-known as Howard Dean. And they go into these regional meetings. I hear the regional meetings are enormously well attended. And I think that that's good. I think what the Democrats have to do is start moving south, as well as west. I think when we have states, Mississippi, 43 percent that are minority and only half of those registered, why aren't we out there trying to register people that ought to be participating in our system. And I think there are a lot of different things besides the newer technologies. I'm interested in what they can do.

Beyond that, I think a new chairman ought to be involved in organization and organization structure and building the party so that a candidate can develop his or her financial base.

BLITZER: It sounds to me like Senator Kennedy is not going to be easy at all in this stage in your career?

KENNEDY: There's a lot going on out there. And I think the Democrats ought to be prepared to accept the challenge that the Republicans give to us in values. And I think we as Democrats ought to say that we're going to prepare everyone in this country to deal with the issues of globalization, every man, woman, and child in our country. Make sure we're going to have a secure economy and have the kind of national defense which is essential for us to survive.

BLITZER: Senator Kennedy, as usual, thanks very much.

KENNEDY: Thanks very much. Good to see you.

BLITZER: And this programming note, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will be my special guest this weekend on "LATE EDITION." The last word in Sunday talk. We have a special four-hour "LATE EDITION" in conjunction with Iraq's elections. That's Sunday, Noon Eastern, here on CNN.

Americans abducted. Alarm over a recent rise in kidnappings along the U.S./Mexican border. The State Department issues a warning.

Also ahead...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ...it is a lot because this is the first time I ever got the chance to select what I want or vote what do I -- the person or the party that we want.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Voting around the world. Iraqi expatriates cast their ballots. But will the election go as smoothly in Iraq?

Plus, first it was Vioxx now there are new troubles for the pharmaceutical company Merck. We'll tell you what they are.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.

Mexico's government is reacting to the latest travel warnings from the U.S. State Department. That warning says violent crimes against Americans, including dozens of kidnappings, has increased along the border.

CNN's Brian Todd is joining us here in Washington with more on this story -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, State Department officials stress they're working closely with Mexican authorities to address this problem. But the recent violence along the border has clearly sparked tension between the two governments and has families pleading for help from both sides.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): Yvette Martinez is a single mother who her parents believe just turned 28 years old. We say they believe that because they haven't seen Yvette since September 17. On that day, Yvette and her friend, Brenda Cisneros, went from their homes in Laredo, Texas, across the border to Nuevo Laredo, Mexico.

They were heading to a concert to celebrate Brenda's 23rd birthday and disappeared. Their case is by no means isolated.

RICHARD BOUCHER, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: At least 27 American citizens have been abducted along the border over the past six months.

TODD: Of those, State Department officials say two people have been killed, 14 released and 11 remain missing. Why? U.S. diplomatic and law enforcement officials say it's a turf battle between drug cartels in the area, with innocents caught up in a sideline business, kidnap and ransom. It's gotten so bad that the State Department has issued a travel warning.

BOUCHER: We do feel it's important to tell Americans about the security situation near the border.

TODD: U.S. law enforcement officials tell CNN Mexican police are doing very little about the problem. The Mexican president's office took issue with both the warning and the criticism of its actions -- quote -- "Mexico is taking determined action against drug trafficking. Mexico's government cannot permit any foreign government to judge or express itself regarding policy actions undertaken to deal with its problems."

CNN spoke to the new mayor of Nuevo Laredo, who says his office is forming a special police task force to patrol areas frequented by cross-border visitors.

DANIEL PENA, MAYOR OF NUEVO LAREDO, MEXICO (through translator): We are concerned about every human being, every citizen, whether they are a resident in Nuevo Laredo or they are visiting us.

TODD: But the mayor also told CNN he believes most, if not all of the people kidnapped are likely involved in drugs, a view not shared by the U.S. Consul in Nuevo Laredo.

MICHAEL YODER, U.S. CONSUL: The conventional wisdom in the community, not in the consulate, but in the community, had been that people were fairly safe as long as they weren't actually involved in the narcotics trafficking trade that passes through here. But once we had learned that people were being kidnapped for ransom and given the numbers involved, We thought it was important to provide that information.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Yvette Martinez's stepfather tells us she was not involved in drugs. And she challenges the mayor of Nuevo Laredo to prove it -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Very disturbing.

Thanks very much, Brian Todd, for that report, though.

And to our viewers, for more on this important story, please be sure to watch "ANDERSON COOPER 360" Monday night for a special report, "Kidnapped, Killed and Missing," an in-depth look at missing Americans in Mexico. That airs Monday night 7:00 p.m. Eastern only here on CNN.

Iraq prepares to vote. Our Christiane Amanpour is there with an inside look at the preparations.

Plus, this:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's something that I'm doing for my country. I know I'm trying to help it and make it secure.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Iraqi expatriates already casting ballots around the world. We'll show you what's going on.

And a 7-year-old stabbed to death in a school bathroom. Now there's a shocking arrest.

Plus, castaways on a tiny island, who are they? And how did they get there?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. Iraqis preparing for Sunday's election. Some say it looks like they're really preparing for a war. We'll get to that.

First, though, some other stories now in the news; 32 people plucked from a very small island off Miami tell Border Patrol agents they're from Cuba. Now U.S. officials are trying to determine how they got there. Officials say all the migrants are in good health. Cubans who reach U.S. soil are generally allowed to stay.

More troubles for Merck. A federal appeals court has ruled the drugmakers' patent on a popular osteoporosis drug, Fosamax, should expire 10 years earlier than projected. The ruling means generic versions of Fosamax could be on the market in 2008. Merck also announced federal regulators are looking into its withdraw of the arthritis drug Vioxx.

More now on our top story, the upcoming Iraqi election this Sunday. Voting in the country is scheduled to start in a little more than 24 hours from now. And the mood right now in Baghdad, a mixture of fear and defiance.

Our chief international correspondent, Christiane Amanpour, is there.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Iraq's election commission members display the voting boxes and show how people should cast their ballots in private, behind these booths. That's if they dare to show up.

With all this violence, Iraq looks more like it's preparing for war than elections, with people waiting in long lines to stockpile everything from fuel to bread.

"They're buying more, because they're afraid," says Ahmed (ph) the baker. "All the shops will be closed for three to four days."

A strict election lockdown is about to be enforced, so people are buying up basics, essential foods and water. It's happening at hospitals, too, with doctors preparing to spend the nights in their offices, preparing for possible widespread bloodshed.

(on camera): The roads are already virtually deserted ahead of the election lockdown to prevent suicide car bombers. But in some Baghdad neighborhoods, these anonymous leaflets are being dropped. They give -- quote -- "a final warning" to voters to stay away from the polls. They claim to have rockets, mortars and explosives ready for every polling station.

(voice-over): But, in some parts of Baghdad, you sense a spirit of defiance as the election draws near. "This is important for all Iraqis for us to have democracy,' says this man. "We are not afraid of the dangers. We must vote." With two days to go before the vote, election workers and party political agents are coming out of hiding, hooting, honking and handing out leaflets, even though their colleagues have been threatened and killed during the election campaign. Newspapers have only just printed the names of all 7,000 candidates after weeks of official secrecy because of fears they would be assassinated. And so people now are eagerly digesting what amounts to a crash course in what to do at the voting booth.

"We support the election," says Hamid (ph). "This is the only way for our country to be stable."

"Iraqis need some strong medicine to cure the violence and chaos that have plagued them since the war," says Sheik Saad al Ubadi (ph). "Since when do we live like this?" he said. We're the richest oil country. We need to vote for someone to represent this country and to protect its people.

Christiane Amanpour, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Voting has begun for Iraqi expatriates around the world. About 26,000 Iraqis are registered to vote here in the United States. There are five polling stations scattered across the country in Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, Los Angeles, and suburban Washington, D.C. Security was tight at the polling station in the Detroit suburb of Southgate. In Nashville, an Iraqi who flew in from Dallas to cast his ballot called the election one of the greatest events in Iraqi history.

The United States is one of 14 countries where Iraqi expatriates are voting. Here's a look at voting in some of the other countries in a special edition of "Around the World."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): The very first vote in the Iraqi election was cast in Australia by an Iraqi expatriate who described himself as -- quote -- "very excited, very happy." About 10 percent of the Iraqi expatriates living in Syria were expected to vote. The only Syrian polling location is in Damascus.

In Turkey, about 5 percent of the Iraqi expatriates are registered to vote. There are two polling stations in Istanbul. And there is one in Ankara.

About 150,000 Iraqi expatriates live in Britain, but only a few thousand are registered there. One London voter criticized Iraqis who aren't register, saying to them -- quote -- "You've lost your chance."

And that's our look around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: And here's your turn to weigh in on the story. Our Web question of the day is this. Would you vote on Sunday if you were an Iraqi? Be honest. You can vote right now. Go to CNN.com. We'll have the results later in this broadcast.

Now a clarification of a story we reported earlier today here on CNN. It involves last September's school massacre in Beslan, Russia. A Russian parliamentary commission is investigating the massacre. The head of that commission has accused some Russian officials of complicity in the attack.

Because of a translation error, CNN incorrectly reported that Russian military officials were under suspicion. In fact, it's Russian law enforcement officials who are under suspicion. Authorities say two suspects have been detained. Three more are being sought. And preparations are now under way to detain two more.

The importance of post-election spin and the political implications of the Iraqi elections in the United States. Our Carlos Watson is standing by. He has "The Inside Edge" on that and more.

And up next, a young girl slain, her body found inside her school, a small town shocked by the person authorities believe is responsible. Our Mary Snow is now on the scene. She'll join us live.

That's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Police are calling it a horrific crime, a 7-year-old girl found stabbed to death in a bathroom at her school. Now her father is under arrest and charged with the murder.

CNN's Mary Snow is on the story for us. She's joining us live from Highland Falls in Upstate New York -- Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, this town is in shock. The police say they do not have a motive.

Christopher Rhodes is accused of murdering his daughter. Rhodes' attorney says that his client is -- quote -- "positively, absolutely not guilty." He says that Rhodes lived for his daughter. Today, young and old alike are trying to come to terms with this horrible tragedy.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW (voice-over): ... 7-year-old Jerica Rhodes now dot the school gates outside Sacred Heart of Jesus School. But here in this tiny town of Highland Falls, there are questions, but no answers to explain why the little girl was murdered and found stabbed inside her Catholic school Thursday morning.

Her grandfather, Linwood Rhodes.

LINWOOD RHODES, VICTIM'S GRANDFATHER: I just cannot conceive someone doing this to a lovely 7-year-old child.

SNOW: Rhodes refused to answer questions about his 27-year-old son, Christopher, the girl's father, who was arrested and charged with second-degree murder. Police say he was seen taking the girl inside the school Tuesday. And they say he was later treated at a hospital for wounds to his hand.

The girl's grandfather, who is the town's former police chief, said he and his wife raised the little girl.

RHODES: There is nothing between my wife, my son, not anyone else that I'm aware that caused this. And I'm talking nothing. There was no type of friction, argument. There was no -- there was nothing.

SNOW: The 240 students in Jerica's school met with counselors today, and so did parents. The school had a lockdown following the discovery of Jerica's body Thursday, not knowing what had happened. Now parents like Mary Birgoni try to answer her daughter's questions.

MARY BIRGONI, PARENT: If the doctor has a pill that could bring her -- make her wake up again, make Jerica wake up.

SNOW: In this town of 4,000 that sits alongside West Point's military academy, the mayor says he can't remember the last homicide here in his 12 years in office. Now, he says, it's his job to act as counselor to the town and he says he'll turn to faith.

JOSEPH D'ONOFRIO, MAYOR OF HIGHLAND FALLS: We're going to shed some tears and we're going to be OK.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW: Again, the suspect's attorney is saying that his client is not guilty. The little girl is expected to be buried next week. The school where she attended is expected to resume classes Monday with grief counselors on hand. And a grand jury is expected to start hearing testimony next week -- Wolf.

BLITZER: What a heartbreaking story, indeed. Mary Snow reporting for us -- Mary, thank you very much.

State of the Union. What can we expect to hear in the president's address to the nation next Wednesday night? Our Carlos Watson joins us. That's coming up next. He's got "The Inside Edge."

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Time now for "The Inside Edge."

CNN political analyst Carlos Watson is joining us now live from Los Angeles.

Carlos, what are you hearing about the president's State of the Union address next Wednesday night before a joint session of the U.S. Congress?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Three big things to think about, Wolf.

One, the president clearly needs a memorial line when he discusses Social Security, which will be the heart of his domestic agenda. It's got to be a memorial line that when it ends up on the cover of the "USA Today" or other local papers will help to begin to change people's minds.

Two, when it comes to convincing members of Congress, while we're hearing a lot of from members of the Senate, some of them like Olympia Snowe from Maine suggesting some opposition, where he could really have a sticky time is with the House of Representatives. So that's really the place you want to watch their reaction.

And then, last but not least, while he's addressing Congress, the group that may help him the most is actually the Republican National Committee, a non-congressional group, who, while they normally focus on politics, is increasingly becoming helpful in supporting the president's policy agenda. So what do I mean?

Sending out e-mails, putting together commercials, reaching out to members of the press. So, follow the RNC in their new role in helping the president try and pass some of what he discusses.

BLITZER: All right, Carlos, the Iraqi elections this Sunday, what are some of the subtexts that you think are at play for the U.S.?

WATSON: Well, certainly for the president, there's an opportunity not only to lose political capital, but to gain it. And a lot of that will be decided by the post-election spin.

Do people say that a third of Iraqis -- only a third of Iraqis vote, or will they say that five million people in the Arab world turned out to vote? Both would be true. But, depending on how you say it, it's got different connotations.

Second, we can't forget that maybe one of the biggest subthemes of the Bush doctrine, if you will, something that doesn't get talked about a lot, but could be on display this Sunday, is the empowerment of women. If you go back to what happened in Afghanistan in terms of more women participating in a place where that normally didn't happen and now potentially in Iraq, that could be a big part of the president's long-term legacy.

BLITZER: Let's talk about one of your two senators. You live in California. Senator Barbara Boxer, the last couple of weeks, she's made a big splash. What do you make of this?

WATSON: Well, what's interesting, Wolf, is that, when you look in the Congress, Barbara Boxer is representing the old Paul Wellstone Democratic wing of the Democratic Party challenging the president.

Howard Dean is doing it in his bid for the DNC chair. But while you may think that they may have their biggest effect only on Democrats, they're changing the debate and maybe encouraging other Republicans to be more assertive vs. the president. So, while they may not agree with the substance of what Barbara Boxer said, when you start to think about Congress vs. the presidency, instead of just Democrat vs. Republican, she may be the harbinger of a bigger movement which is standing up to the president.

BLITZER: Carlos Watson with "The Inside Edge," he joins us every Friday here on this program -- Carlos, thanks very much.

WATSON: Good to see you.

BLITZER: And when we come back, we'll have the results of our Web question of the day. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Here's how you're weighing in on our Web question of the day. Would you vote on Sunday if you were an Iraqi? Sixty-six percent you said yes; 34 percent said no. Remember, though, this is not a scientific poll.

And please stay with CNN for live coverage of the elections in Iraq on Sunday. I'll be here Sunday at noon Eastern for "LATE EDITION." Among my guests, the Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. We'll have four hours of "LATE EDITION."

That's it for me. "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

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