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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Bush to Try to Win Support for His Agenda; Mixed Success for President from Last Year's State of the Union
Aired February 02, 2005 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Wednesday, February 2. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: Good evening.
In three hours, President Bush will deliver the first State of the Union speech of his second term. The president will address a nation and Congress now divided over the future of Social Security, immigration and other critical social issues. President Bush will try to convince the American people and a large number of skeptics within his own party that he has a strategy for success.
A short time ago, the White House released excerpts of the president's prepared remarks.
Senior White House correspondent John King reports -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And Lou, on that signature domestic challenge, the president will confront tonight revamping Social Security. Mr. Bush will tell Congress and the American people in his speech that, quote, "fixing Social Security permanently will require an open, candid review of the options. And I will work with members of Congress to find the most effective combination of reforms."
In addressing that politically sensitive issue, the president will urge the Congress, as he had in the last campaign, to adopt private retirement accounts, a small percentage of Social Security payroll taxes into private accounts.
For the first time, the president will spell out some of the details of how he wants that to work, including, he will say, drawing the line at 55. Those over age 55 would not be eligible for those accounts. Those below 55 would be eligible for those accounts.
The president will say these accounts are safe, not risky, as the Democrats say. And the president making this case will be a president with only a 50 percent approval rating. That is historically low.
So as the president addresses Social Security, immigration and other controversial issues, I asked the counsel to the president, Dan Bartlett, earlier today, does that limit the president's effectiveness in making his case.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DAN BARTLETT, WHITE HOUSE COUNSELOR: I think the first part of that question is whether the president has 50 percent approval rating or 60 percent approval rating, the Social Security system is still going to go broke. Doesn't matter if he has a 50 percent approval rating or a 60 percent approval rating. Many Americans, younger Americans don't believe the retirement system is going to be there for them. That has nothing to do with President Bush's standing.
What President Bush does have with the American people is that he went specifically to them and ran on a specific agenda, clearly articulated where he wants to take the country, and 61 million Americans said, "You're our guy for the next four years."
KING: His own party has significant disagreements with the president on the issue of immigration. How hard will he hit that in his speech tonight? And how important will hit it in the early days of this first term when he obviously wants to advance his key priorities?
BARTLETT: Well, immigration is an issue that has flummoxed policymakers for many years. And President Bush has a key understanding of this, because he was a governor from a border state. Texas shares 2,000 miles of border.
KING: Many Republicans think he wants to reward people who broke the law.
BARTLETT: He'll be very clear tonight -- he'll be very clear tonight that this is not an amnesty program. This is a worker program that reflects the realities in our workplaces, throughout the country.
There are some jobs in America that Americans just don't want to do. We're forcing businessmen, good, honest, hardworking businessmen to make difficult choices about maybe hiring illegals. That's not the kind of system we want. That's not the kind of economy we want and it's not the type of values and ideals that we live up to.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: So tough challenges for the president tonight. Very tough challenges for this president, overcoming Democratic opposition and Republican unease on Social Security; overcoming Republican opposition on immigration.
On the international front, the president will be quite upbeat about last Sunday's elections in Iraq but say it is way too soon to talk about any timetable for bringing home U.S. troops.
He also will offer a new aid package to the newly elected Palestinian leadership and say he believes and that the administration will push to get the Palestinians and the Israelis back to the table. Mr. Bush will say in his view, Middle East peace perhaps finally within reach -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, thank you. John King. As John just reported, the president's biggest challenge tonight will likely be to win over members of his own party in the increasingly contentious debate over the future of Social Security.
But that's not the only issue are, of course, unsettling many Republicans. They are also concerned about the invasion of illegal aliens into this country and the soaring record trade and budget deficits.
Ed Henry reports from Capitol Hill -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Lou.
You're right. This is a new political dynamic for this president. In the first four years of his presidency, he pretty much got this Republican Congress to go along on much of his domestic and foreign agenda. But right now, you're right, as he sends his new federal budget up to Capitol Hill next Monday, he's facing a lot of pressure from conservatives who want him to hold the line on spending, to cut the deficit, as well.
There's also a lot of talk about immigration reform, as John King mentioned. Next week Republican Congressman James Sensenbrenner is going to finally get a floor vote in the House on his immigration proposals, including a prohibition on illegal immigrants getting a driver's licenses. But conservatives are concerned that the president tonight will also talk and promote a guest worker program that conservatives up here do not like very much.
But as you also mentioned, the biggest potential divide coming up between Republicans will be over Social Security. There are a lot of congressional Republicans here who are nervous that, if this is not handled correctly, this could be a big political loser for those Republicans on the Hill in 2006, whereas the president is a lame duck and will not have to face the voters again.
Democrats up here, they will be exploiting that division as much as possible. Today when Democratic leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi started practicing and preparing for tonight's official response to the State of the Union address, they were hitting the president hard on Social Security. In fact, Senator Reid said that he believes the media has allowed the president to create a false crisis.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HARRY REID (D-NE), MINORITY LEADER: You folks have brought on to something that doesn't really deserve all the attention it gets. Social Security is not in crisis. Underline, underscored, parenthesis, big bold letters. Social Security is OK for the next 50 years, and I think the president has been diverting attention from the real issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Republicans admit up here that they have not gotten off to a good start in terms of fighting politically on the Social Security issue, that Democrats have scored a lot of points. But they think, in the long run, the president now will give it a nice strong push tonight, build some momentum for the case, for Social Security reform.
And Republicans here also feel that they're starting to turn the corner on Iraq a bit, as well. So much so that some Republican lawmakers tonight, in fact, are planning on dabbing their fingers in purple ink in solidarity with the Iraqi people, who had to put their own fingers in ink in order to vote in last weekend's successful elections.
Here's Republican Congressman Jack Kingston.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. JACK KINGSTON (R), GEORGIA: I dipped my finger in purple ink today in symbolic unity and in support of the free election in Iraq, the first free election in the history of that country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now that ink will also be available for Democratic lawmakers to dip their fingers before the speech if they want to wave their fingers before the television cameras during the speech tonight. But so far Democrats, some Democrats at least privately are saying they think this is a political stunt. So we'll have to see whether or not it ends up being bipartisan or partisan -- Lou.
DOBBS: It does make one wonder why there's any more required than 150,000 U.S. troops, more than 1,400 killed in combat, 10,000 wounded, to express solidarity with the Iraqi people.
Ed, thank you very much. Ed Henry.
The president's speech tonight is likely to be full of grand declarations and promises of action. But if last year's State of the Union is any guide, President Bush will be unable to deliver on many of his commitments over the next year.
Kitty Pilgrim reports now on what's been done and what has not been done since the last State of the Union speech.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): State of the Union 2004: a lot promised, but what was accomplished?
Holding free elections in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iraq looked less likely for success at the time of the speech.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're working with Iraqis and the United Nations to prepare for a transition to full Iraqi sovereignty by the end of June.
PILGRIM: That deadline met, despite dire predictions. PATRICK BASHAM, CATO INSTITUTE: The timing of this speech tonight is most favorable to the president, because to some extent he's going to in his foreign policy segment, going to perform something of a victory lap.
PILGRIM: Another theme, war on terror, another year without terrorist attack in the United States. The nation's security measures were debated and critiqued, but no attack.
BUSH: You need to renew the Patriot Act.
PILGRIM: Not renewed, but provisions won't expire until this year.
Immigration reform: the president came up with a new temporary worker program and repeatedly used it as a campaign theme.
TAMAR JACOBY, MANHATTAN INSTITUTE: No, the president didn't move forward in a significant, concrete way to advance the proposal this year, but he has not abandoned it. He's been talking about it very actively and aggressively.
PILGRIM: Social Security reform. Only two sentences in last year's speech; expected to be a substantial part of this year's agenda.
A promise to cut the deficit in half over the next five years.
JOHN FORTIER, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: He did give himself a five-year window. And I think you'll see the president's budget coming out. There are some serious cuts in domestic spending and trying to cut back.
That being said, we're also talking about Social Security reform, which may increase our borrowing.
PILGRIM: Odds and ends: a desire to clean up steroid use in professional sports. This year, several high-profile sports figures were caught in a steroid scandal, and major league baseball strengthened its ban against the drugs.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Now, one other provision the president mentioned was energy, but an energy bill would include controversial provisions, such as drilling in northern Alaska. That was also something that he's been pushing. He did not get done in Congress last year -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much. Kitty Pilgrim.
Well, one issue that the president is unlikely to address tonight is the rising concern over the size of our Army and the National Guard's escalating recruitment problems.
The generals in charge of the National Guard today admitted their recruitment has dropped sharply over the past four months. Those generals declared that maintaining the Guard strength at 350,000 soldiers will be a challenge.
Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Every year, the National Guard counts on recruiting up to 10,000 soldiers after they leave the active duty force. But, this year, with those troops coming off tough deployments in Iraq and not anxious to be sent back to the front lines, the Guard is hurting.
LT. GEN. STEVEN BLUM, CHIEF, NATIONAL GUARD BUREAU: We are facing, no question, daunting, but surmountable challenges. That said, the National Guard is not in crisis, but it is significantly stretched.
MCINTYRE: The Guard recruiting numbers are alarming. In the first quarter of the fiscal year, the Guards signed up only 80 percent of the soldiers it needs. And, last month, the number dropped to just 56 percent. Guard officials say February looks to be just as bad, making the year-end goal, 350,000 soldiers in the Guard, highly problematic.
LT. GEN. ROGER SCHULTZ, CHIEF, ARMY NATIONAL GUARD: Our mark for 350,000 soldiers in the Army National Guard in September is a stretch, to be sure. What we are saying, however, is it is way too early to admit defeat.
REP. VIC SNYDER (D), ARKANSAS: We can't help you if we don't know what the hell is going on.
MCINTYRE: Members of the House Armed Services Committee expressed frustration that Army officials have been slow to admit how dire the problems are becoming.
SNYDER: We read these opening statements and we sit through meetings. We have our briefings, and we come out of there thinking, well, let's just put a happy face on it and go on with our work, and then we get inklings that maybe there are some icebergs under the water.
MCINTYRE; Army officials say the active duty and reserve forces are still making recruiting goals, but say that with more than 650,000 soldiers having now met their two-year limit on deployment, finding new troops to send is getting harder every day.
REP. JOHN MCHUGH (R), NEW YORK: The Army, and, by that, I mean, Active, Guard and Reserve, is simply too small and improperly structured to successfully fulfill, perform all the nation is asking it to do.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: So far, the response of the Army is to add more recruiters. More than 2,000 will be trying to bring in fresh troops. But Army officials say the real problem is the mid-level officers that are not so easy to replace.
Today, the head of the Army Reserves said he was short 5,000 captains. Those are key positions he said would take four to six years to train them and promote them up -- Lou.
DOBBS: Is this then the official acknowledgment that our Reserves and our National Guard are now in trouble in terms of manpower and that the posturing of the past year has been precisely that, posturing on the part of the Pentagon?
MCINTYRE: Well, that was -- that was the subject of this hearing this afternoon, and it's a long and complicated subject.
But the bottom line is the Guard is definitely in trouble. It sort of cascades. The Reserve is also feeling a strain. The active duty force is in the best shape.
There are a lot of positive signs, but the key is they can't sustain this pace indefinitely. They need to either have a bigger army if they're going to sustain this pace or the pace has to drop off in the year or two to come, and that's what they're wrestling with.
DOBBS: Wrestling with an approach that would be in direct counterdirection to that of the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in point of fact.
Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre.
Thank you, sir.
DOBBS: Next, bankrupted by medical bills. If you think your health insurance will protect you, think again.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: We reported here last month on the Mexican government's guide that it published to help illegal aliens sneak into this country. Tonight, there is outrage over a new how-to guide for illegal aliens. This one, however, was not produced by the Mexican government. It was produced by the Colorado Department of Education.
Casey Wian reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that children of illegal aliens are entitled to an education in this country, but some say the Colorado Department of Education has taken that too far.
Until this week, its Web site offered a Spanish language brochure called Survival Guide for Recent Arrivals to Colorado. Along with information useful to legal immigrants, it contains tips clearly intended for illegal aliens.
The guide advises "The job of the police is not to report you to immigration"; "Always carry the name and phone number of an attorney who will take your calls"; Some lawyers help illegal aliens for a very low price"; and "Many businesses employ illegal aliens since they do not have the responsibility to investigate the legal status of employees.
The guide was endorsed by Denver's Mexican consulate, but it also contained a welcome message from Colorado Governor Bill Owens who says he thought it was advice for legal immigrants. Governor Owens ordered it removed from the state's Web site this week after Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo wrote a letter of protest.
REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: It's amazing. What would the Mexican government do if we did something like that? They would immediately file a protest. Yet we are really silent on it because I think we are co-conspirators.
WIAN: The booklet was produced and distributed by an immigrant education group called Focus Points Family Resource Center. It said in a statement, "The guide tries to inform people of their rights. It informs people how to navigate the community safely."
Funding came in part from First Data Western Union, which profits from illegal aliens sending money home. The guide even mentions Western Union and includes a sample family budget showing $200 for relatives in Mexico.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: The Colorado Department of Education's director of English language acquisition says the guide contains lots of useful information, and, if some portions are raising concerns, he'd like to see them modified so the rest of the document can be used.
While it's off the state Web site, it was still on the Denver public school district's Web site late today -- Lou.
DOBBS: Congressman Tancredo said -- I mean, I just -- this leaves one almost speechless. How in the world does Governor Owens justify both his imprimatur on that product in permitting a state government department to produce it?
WIAN: Well, he says that he thought it was a guide for legal immigrants. It's, frankly, very tough to square with the reading of the guide, even in Spanish. It's very clear that a lot of the information in it is directed at illegal aliens, information that legal immigrants would probably have no use for -- Lou.
DOBBS: Casey, thank you very much.
Casey Wian.
In our special report tonight, "Assault on the Middle Class," a further assault on the middle class, we might say. Startling new information tonight about the cause of many of the personal bankruptcies which are skyrocketing in this country. A new report says half of all personal bankruptcies are now the result of soaring medical bills. But what's even more shocking, middle-class families with health insurance are at risk.
Christine Romans reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Middle-class Americans, like Maria Vasquez, are just a car crash or serious illness away from financial ruin, and health insurance doesn't help. She's a secretary with lung cancer, filing for bankruptcy, she says, for one reason...
MARIA VASQUEZ, FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY: Just the medical bills is astronomical. And now the insurance -- not only that, but now the co- payment goes up. The medicines are -- every time I turn around, I have to take something different. So that's more money.
ROMANS: For a study published in the journal Health Affairs, Harvard University researchers pored over 1,700 bankruptcy filings in five states. More than half of the filers said out-of-pocket medical expenses played a role in their financial troubles, and most of those filers were middle-class workers with health insurance.
DR. DAVID HIMMELSTEIN, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: I think it tells us no one in this country is safe other than maybe Bill Gates. But if you're sick enough long enough, even if you have coverage, if you have a good job, you could be bankrupted by the cost of your care or the severity of your illness.
ROMANS: The average bankrupt person with insurance shelled out more than $13,000 in medical copayments, and the report found that insured cancer patients face out-of-pocket expenses topping $35,000.
Bankruptcy attorney Charles Juntikka says medical bankruptcies are exploding.
CHARLES JUNTIKKA, BANKRUPTCY ATTORNEY: Starting, you know, 10 years ago or so, we started to get more people with medical bills and they would owe $5,000, $10,000. And when it first started happening, we'd go, oh, you don't have coverage? And they go, oh, yes, I have coverage, but it doesn't cover anything.
ROMANS: The Harvard study found medical-related bankruptcies are up 30-fold since 1981.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROMANS: Now an insurance industry spokesperson said identifying financial stresses for American families is very important to the insurance industry as well. But she said that the Harvard study doesn't dig deeply enough into all of the problems. She also said that insurance industry studies show that most people underestimate the likelihood that something terrible is going to happen to them and they overestimate their resources. DOBBS: That's human nature. But what is not rational nor easily explained is why the Republicans right now are trying to push further over to the individual responsibility for health care rather than the employer. This is a huge issue, and this study out of Harvard is as important as it is alarming.
Christine, thank you very much.
Christine Romans.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight: Which do you think is of the greatest concern to our middle class -- Social Security, national security, job security or health-care security? Cast your vote, please, at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up later in the broadcast.
It seems winter is here to stay, at least for another six weeks. That forecast according to the world-renowned authority, Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil. Some 2,000 people gathered, as is traditional, by 3:30 this morning on Gobblers Knob in Pennsylvania.
They were waiting to see whether the world famous marmot would see his shadow. He did. And that, of course, means winter will last for at least a little longer. This tradition has been celebrated since 1886. There's no clear factual record on the accuracy, however, of all of this.
Next, a frightening rush-hour plane crash.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: In our special report tonight, fast tracking free trade. President Bush has the authority to push so-called free trade agreements through Congress with very little, if any, debate.
Critics say the fast tracking of free trade has been an utter failure that has cost thousands upon thousands of American jobs. In spite of that criticism, President Bush will ask Congress to extend fast-track authority for another two years.
Lisa Sylvester reports from Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Bush administration has reached fast track trade agreements with Chile, Singapore, Morocco and Australia in the last two-and-a-half years. Congress could make no changes to the deals. They could only vote yes or no. Critics say the fast track system has helped fuel a record $600 billion trade deficit.
SEN. BYRON DORGAN (D), NORTH DAKOTA: This whole free trade's like a loose thread on a cheap suit, you know. You pull this thing and the arms come off. I don't think that people can justify on the floor of the Senate or the U.S. House the current trade strategy because it is not working. It's digging a big hole for this country's future.
SYLVESTER: Congress has a chance this session to deny fast track authority, but only if Senate Finance Chairman Charles Grassley and House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas allow it. Both men are solidly in the free trade camp.
SEN. KENT CONRAD (D), NORTH DAKOTA: I think it's very clear they don't want to face a vote in the House of Representatives, they don't want to face a vote in the United States Senate because support for the trade policy that's being pursued now is dramatically weakened.
SYLVESTER: Free trade supporters argue fast track trade agreements have helped grow the economy.
DANIEL MITCHELL, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: If the legislative process is such that a proposal can't even make it through committee, by definition, it doesn't have enough support to be on the floor. That's the way our system is structured.
SYLVESTER: But critics of the fast track system say the record speaks for itself.
THEA LEE, ECONOMIST, AFL-CIO: Overall, fast track's been a disaster really, certainly for American workers. Our trade deficit has skyrocketed. We've lost hundreds of thousands of more jobs as we've negotiated new flawed trade agreements.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: The president has until March 1 to seek an extension of fast track authority which he is all but certain to do, and lawmakers have until June 1 to put forward a disapproval resolution. Even though the odds are greatly stacked against Senator Byron Dorgan, he will try to put the brakes on fast track authority -- Lou.
DOBBS: To Senator Dorgan's credit, he's doing something critically important. That's restoring at least the idea of oversight and participation on the part of our legislative branch. Congress to this point has been delighted not to take responsibility for these trade agreements. Perhaps that will change over the next several months.
Lisa Sylvester.
Thank you very much.
Next, critical issues that President Bush will not be addressing in his State of the Union speech tonight. But we will. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: I'll be joined by the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee in just a moment, Congressman Duncan Hunter. But let's first take a look at these headlines.
A dramatic scene today in Teterboro, New Jersey, where a corporate jet crashed into a warehouse after a failed take-off. The jet sped off the end of the runway, crossed a busy highway, and struck several cars before crashing into a warehouse. At least 20 people were injured in the incident. The driver of one car is in critical condition, but incredibly, no one killed.
Pope John Paul II tonight is in stable condition a day after being hospitalized for acute respiratory infection. The Vatican says the Pope will remain in the hospital for several days.
And the Federal Reserve today raised interest rates by a quarter- point to 2.5 percent, that rate hike the sixth since June.
In his State of the Union speech tonight, President Bush will likely call for tough fiscal discipline to help reduce the huge federal budget deficit. But President Bush is unlikely to talk about Pentagon budget proposals to cut more than $50 billion from Air Force and Navy equipment weapons programs over the next six years. And President Bush is unlikely to address calls in Congress for a permanent increase in the size of the Army to help ease the strains that are building on our military from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the war on terror.
Joining me now from Washington, D.C. is the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Congressman Duncan Hunter.
Congressman, good to have you here.
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DUNCAN HUNTER (R), CALIFORNIA: Hey, good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: Let's begin with the reported cuts of some $50 billion being called for, that to be borne principally by the Navy and the Air Force. Are you are in favor of those cuts?
HUNTER: Well, Lou, no. We came out of an enormous hole, if you will, when in the Clinton administration we under-funded modernization during the '90s by about $50 billion bucks a year. This administration has admirably started to increase that.
We moved to about a $72 billion modernization expenditure each year for the last several years. But this, for the next year, it levels out. And, in leveling out, they are going to be cutting back on the number of Joint Strike Fighters and other aircraft, like the C- 130. I think we need to continue this modernization trend and continue to make sure that our troops have the very finest equipment.
DOBBS: That puts the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee in direct opposition to the secretary of defense, because he wants to move away from the heavier ships and air technology to low- tech, so says the Pentagon, approaches to war fighting. What do you -- how do we resolve it? HUNTER: Well, actually, I think that the -- you know, when we won this war, when we took Baghdad down, we actually used some of the old, some of the new. Sure, we used the new modern precision missiles that could go in and knock a tank out from 30 miles away. But we also used things like heavy armor. We had that blitzkrieg armor attack. We used tanks. We used Bradleys.
And so a lot of the classic war-fighting materials came into play. And I think that the secretary has a new appreciation for a lot of the systems that we've had in place. And remember, Lou, we have to fight all kinds of wars. We have to fight conventional wars, as well as a war against terrorism.
DOBBS: Do you think the secretary has a new appreciation for boots on the ground?
HUNTER: You know what...
DOBBS: Congress has called for 30,000, an increase, a permanent increase of 30,000 troops for the Army. This secretary of defense has made it clear he wants to resist it at all -- at almost every front.
HUNTER: Actually, Lou, we passed that last year. We passed an increase of not only Army, but Marines last year, and we have about an additional 30,000 troops in the Army now coming aboard pursuant to the permanent in-strength increases we made in last year's bill. And the president signed it. In the end, the secretary endorsed that.
DOBBS: The secretary, though, continues to resist the calls for more troops in Iraq. And meanwhile, the Democrats are calling for an exit strategy that means U.S. troops should be withdrawing, as some have said, including Senator Ted Kennedy, almost immediately.
HUNTER: Yes, Lou, I think that's -- I think the idea of putting a time table on this thing is bad. Our exit strategy is the stand-up of the Iraqi forces.
And let me tell you, one thing that happened in this last -- the election just a couple of days ago -- over 100 attacks were made by the insurgents on these voting places. And at those places that were guarded by the Iraqi National Guard, and their police forces, interestingly, they all held. None of them let the attackers through. And in several places, they were killed as a result of that. But they didn't let them through, and they had over 100 attacks.
So, to some degree, this insurgency has battle-hardened some of the Iraqi forces. Talk with our top guys in the Pentagon today on how well these forces are standing up. We have a long way to go, but we do have some Iraqi forces that have stood tall in this last round of voting.
DOBBS: And in each case the National Guard and the Reserves playing an important part in supporting those Iraqi forces and in the war in Iraq, as you well know. The fact of the matter is the National Guard today all but admitted, acknowledged publicly, and as straightforwardly as things can be, it seems, in Washington, said they have got a problem with recruitment. They are not able to meet those goals. How serious do you think it is? What are you going to do to help?
HUNTER: Well, first, I think that the -- there's 43 percent of the people fighting in theater in Iraq, our National Guard and Reserve. They are doing a great job. And it's because of them and the active soldiers who carried this election literally on their shoulders, and we had free elections.
I think Americans are a lot tougher than the think-tanks give them credit for. And what we have to do is start drawing those troops down as we hand this job off to the Iraqi forces.
What we've discovered, Lou, is that it takes -- you can drive an armored wedge up to Baghdad with a relatively small force. Occupation is labor-intensive. It takes a lot of people. And the sooner we can turn over part of this job and get some of those 150,000 Americans out of there, the sooner we'll ease that stress on the Guard.
But let me tell you. I've got a lot more faith in the strength and the resiliency of the Guard and Reserve than a lot of the think- tanks that are predicting that it's going to be somehow broken. Americans don't break.
And, you know, if you ask anybody today, the Marines came back in -- the Marines who have been fighting in Fallujah came back in just a few days ago, and even the families of those killed in action came down to meet the battalions. None of them had anything bad to say about this operation. Quite interesting.
DOBBS: Congressman, no time is there a question here about the strength, the resiliency, the dedication of our troops, whether the Guard, the Reserve or active duty. My question was really about what are we going to do in the Pentagon and the Congress to support the National Guard that is screaming for some help in terms of the missing recruiting goals. We'll get to that question the next time.
Duncan Hunter, we appreciate you being here, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
HUNTER: Good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: So-called Social Security reform will be at the center of the president's State of the Union address tonight. The president no longer says our Social Security system is in crisis, but the president's surrogates still do.
Earlier, I talked with Senator Jay Rockefeller and asked him whether there's a particular reason for the great hurry on Social Security reform in his judgment.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
U.S. SENATOR JAY ROCKEFELLER (D), WEST VIRGINIA: Lou, there really isn't. I mean, as you say, there's not a crisis now. We can go on until the year 2042. With a little bit of tinkering, we can go on to the year 2075. If we took just one-third of the permanent -- making permanent tax decreases for basically upper-income people, just one-third of that amount that he's going to try and do this year, that would solve all of our Social Security problems through the year 2075. I mean, I think there are ways to fix this without cutting benefits and raising payroll taxes.
DOBBS: Well, most everyone agrees that anything approaching the president's plan is going to be somewhere between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in transition costs, or $1 to $2 trillion added to the federal budget and, therefore, the national debt, because we're in deficit.
Why is there not a greater concern right now about fiscal management in this country? Why are the Democrats, in point of fact, not more concerned about a sagging dollar, the tremendous impact that this burgeoning trade deficit is having on the slowdown in our economy?
ROCKEFELLER: Lou, I would have to say that we do have that concern. It's hard to sort of find a forum for it. And you've given me a little one here.
I mean, look, we're borrowing money like crazy. Our trade deficit's the biggest ever. You just basically add that on to the annual budget deficit and then you figure out what your interest you're paying on the national debt. And we're borrowing our money basically from Chinese and Japanese banks, virtually all of it. I don't think Americans want that. I don't think Americans want to leave that kind of inheritance to their grandchildren, that kind of huge debt. I mean, I think it's about $30,000 per person.
DOBBS: Border security, port security, the reform of the intelligence agencies in which you've played an important part. Here we are in the second month of this new year, and we still don't have a national director of intelligence.
ROCKEFELLER: That's a matter of concern. I mean, you would think. I mean, I sit on the Intelligence Committee. And I am just waiting so much to try and take this sort of vague system which we've created and start putting the pieces together. But we can't do that until we get a director of national intelligence.
Robert Gates turned it down. I don't know how many others have turned it down. I mean, it's the president's obligation to come up with a first-class person who, when he does, we will be more than happy to expedite that person's confirmation so we can get to work on making this nation more secure. There is just so much that we're not doing.
DOBBS: And, Senator, at this point, the Republican Party is showing marked signs of division on issues that we've just discussed. But also the issue of immigration, and particularly the guest worker program the president has advanced. What is your position? What is the Democratic position on what is nothing less than an immigration policy crisis in this country? ROCKEFELLER: There is not, at this point, a Democratic position on that issue. We have not caucused on it. We've not had massive hearings on it. And in the Intelligence Committee, we've had no hearings on it.
But it's interesting -- and I don't want to throw you off on this -- but immigration plays into Social Security, because it has the number of people who will be paying payroll taxes, because often people who come into this country will do work that Americans won't do. On the other hand, illegal immigration is a little hard to take.
DOBBS: For many people, Senator, as you know, more than just a little hard to take. As you say, related to Social Security, also very much related to national security and border security.
Senator Jay Rockefeller, as always, it's good to have you with us. Thank you.
ROCKEFELLER: Thank you, Lou.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Taking a look now at some of your thoughts on the issue of broken borders.
Cece in Rosemont, Illinois, wrote in to say, "I am glad to support Arizona in their fight to secure their border against illegal aliens. Perhaps Mexico should spend less time and money trying to secure liberties and freedoms here in the United States for their illegal expatriates and spend more time trying to create a hospitable environment for its citizens at home."
And Hilary Vickman in Albuquerque, New Mexico: "It seems to me that we have given away control of our borders rather than losing it. When we do little or nothing to enforce the law, can that be called 'losing' control?"
And Marc in North Caldwell, New Jersey: "What on earth is going on with Mexico? First, they write a handbook on how to get into our country illegally. Then they want to challenge one of our state's laws. Why doesn't the Mexican government try making their own country better so their citizens might want to actually stay?"
We appreciate hearing your thoughts. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs.com.
Next, the battle for the future of the U.S. Supreme Court.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Joining me now for more on the president's State of the Union address and the state of the union is Senator Arlen Specter, who is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which, of course, considers all judicial nominees.
Senator Arlen Specter, good to have you with us tonight from Capitol Hill.
U.S. SENATOR ARLEN SPECTER (R), PENNSYLVANIA: Thanks for the invitation, Lou. Nice being with you.
DOBBS: Senator, Alberto Gonzales, the status of his nomination process?
SPECTER: Well, I think he'll be confirmed tomorrow, Lou, largely along party lines. I had hoped to have a strong vote in his favor. Judge Gonzales has essentially been blamed for things he didn't do for a Department of Justice memorandum which was clearly wide of the mark on defining the law. And then it was up to the Department of Defense and CIA to structure the questions.
But in this heavy political climate, where Condoleezza Rice had more votes against her on the nomination for secretary of state than anybody going back to John Jay in 1824, you can see it's a pretty heavy political season.
DOBBS: And in this heavy political season, nominees to move forward, the Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has said that he is going to, if there is obstruction, as he puts it, in terms of this process, and these nominees of the president are not -- judicial nominees of the president are not given an opportunity for a floor vote, that he's going to look at escalating this to nuclear, as he put it, options. What is your thinking?
SPECTER: Well, it is my hope that we won't get there. I am working hard with Senator Leahy, Senator Schumer and other Democrats to find a way to confirm the president's nominees without going to the nuclear option.
If that happens, I think it will be -- it will be tough. Harry Reid, the leader of the Democrats, has been pretty blunt about it. His words are not too delicate. They are his words, but Senator Reid said he would "screw things up," quote, unquote. And it only takes one senator around here to throw a monkey wrench into the operations. So I'm working very hard as the new chairman of the committee to try to see if we can't get it worked out without the nuclear option, Lou.
DOBBS: In addition, of course, to the nomination process, the judiciary process, there is the matter of legislation. And the class action fairness bill is before your committee tomorrow and part of the tort reform package. Is it going to pass? What will be its impact, in your opinion?
SPECTER: I think it is highly likely to pass. But we're going to try to get it out of committee tomorrow without amendments, trying to get it to the floor. And then there will be a debate. And there may be some changes to it. But my expectation is the class action bill will pass.
DOBBS: And move to the floor. Do you think it will succeed there, given the criticism in many quarters that corporate America's accountability, in particular in this area, would be reduced?
SPECTER: Well, I think that it has the votes. It had more than 60 votes last year, and the bill is largely the same.
DOBBS: Senator Arlen Specter, we thank you. As you put it, a heavy political season. We thank you for sharing your thoughts with us here tonight.
SPECTER: Good to be with you, Lou. Thank you for the invitation.
DOBBS: A reminder now to vote in our poll tonight. The question is: "Which do you think is of most concern to our middle class, Social Security, national security, job security, health care security?" A lot of security to choose among. Please cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up in just a matter of moments.
Next here, a successful election in Iraq. But will that bring our troops home any sooner?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: My next guest is just back from Iraq where he witnessed the elections there first-hand this Sunday. Congressman Christopher Shays calls the election Sunday one of the most incredible days of his life.
Congressman, good to have you here.
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE CHRISTOPHER SHAYS (R), CONNECTICUT: Good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: Let's just turn to the election itself. A surprise to many people, particularly the naysayers, that the election was brought off and, secondly, the level of participation on the part of the Iraqis, I think, was also a surprise to many.
SHAYS: Well, more Iraqis basically participated on a percentage basis than participate in our own elections in the United States. But what was so thrilling about this was that about 150,000 Iraqis participated in running the election. They were separate from the political parties, and they did it so well. They were trained by people throughout the world, particularly from the National Endowment for Democracy, that is funded out of the United States, the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute.
DOBBS: Do you believe the apparent success of those elections is a validation of the president's Iraq policies?
SHAYS: It's a validation that the Iraqis can pull this thing off. They've got three areas. They've got to prove they can handle the political challenge that they are doing right now. They have an economic challenge, and they have a security challenge. And all of them they need to make progress on. But it's a major step forward.
DOBBS: This is your seventh trip to Iraq over the past two years. A great deal of discussion about the level of participation by the Sunnis. Give us your best judgment as to, one, how important or unimportant the participation was and what we can expect over the next six to 12 months?
SHAYS: Well, some Sunnis didn't participate because they were told not to. Other Sunnis wanted to participate, but they felt their lives were in danger. And others participated in spite of the fact they were told not to, in spite of the fact their lives were in danger.
What I particularly like is I've met with both the prime minister and the president, the president this last visit. Both have told me they have been reaching out to the Sunnis and have made them feel that they can have a role to play.
What's important about a new democracy is they get majority rule but it's hard to understand compromising minority rights. But they are getting to understand minority rights.
May I say one other thing real quickly? In the Middle East, compromise is viewed as a negative, so we have to overcome that hurdle.
DOBBS: Let's turn quickly to domestic issues, the State of the Union. We've got just about a minute, Congressman.
The president is going to focus on Social Security. There are immense divisions, as you are aware, within the president's party, as well as the contest with the Democrats. Do you support the president putting so much quote, unquote, "political capital" behind this initiative, and do you think it has a chance in the world of being successful?
SHAYS: Well, I respect him for doing it. And I think he's right to say, "Deal with it before it's a crisis." But, you know, we do need to get our country's financial house in order and deal with the trade imbalance and move the economy forward. That's one thing.
We do need to win the war against terrorism at home and abroad and continue the progress in Iraq. And it's been not consistent, just those two things.
But, yes, we do need to deal with Social Security and Medicare. We do need -- we have a serious transportation challenge and need to improve that. We need to educate our kids. We need to deal with immigration. So I hope these other issues don't get lost in the debate on Social Security.
DOBBS: Congressman Christopher Shays, good to see you.
SHAYS: Thank you.
DOBBS: Next, the results of our poll tonight, and a preview of what's ahead tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The results of our poll tonight, an interesting breakdown. Fifty percent of you say health care security is the biggest concern to America's middle class. Thirty-three percent say job security. Eleven percent, Social Security. Only five percent say national security. Fascinating results of our poll tonight.
We hope you will watch our special coverage tonight of the State of the Union address beginning at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 p.m. Pacific, right here on CNN. Thanks for being with us tonight.
Please join us here tomorrow evening. My guests will include the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, the chairman of the Senate Rules Committee. Also tomorrow, "New York Times" columnist Paul Krugman on Social Security, and why he says privatization isn't a very good idea, to say the least.
And "Exporting Creativity": The advertising industry in this country is next to export jobs to those cheap foreign labor markets. Our special report, please be with us.
For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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Aired February 2, 2005 - 18:00 ET
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ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT for Wednesday, February 2. Here now for an hour of news, debate and opinion is Lou Dobbs.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: Good evening.
In three hours, President Bush will deliver the first State of the Union speech of his second term. The president will address a nation and Congress now divided over the future of Social Security, immigration and other critical social issues. President Bush will try to convince the American people and a large number of skeptics within his own party that he has a strategy for success.
A short time ago, the White House released excerpts of the president's prepared remarks.
Senior White House correspondent John King reports -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And Lou, on that signature domestic challenge, the president will confront tonight revamping Social Security. Mr. Bush will tell Congress and the American people in his speech that, quote, "fixing Social Security permanently will require an open, candid review of the options. And I will work with members of Congress to find the most effective combination of reforms."
In addressing that politically sensitive issue, the president will urge the Congress, as he had in the last campaign, to adopt private retirement accounts, a small percentage of Social Security payroll taxes into private accounts.
For the first time, the president will spell out some of the details of how he wants that to work, including, he will say, drawing the line at 55. Those over age 55 would not be eligible for those accounts. Those below 55 would be eligible for those accounts.
The president will say these accounts are safe, not risky, as the Democrats say. And the president making this case will be a president with only a 50 percent approval rating. That is historically low.
So as the president addresses Social Security, immigration and other controversial issues, I asked the counsel to the president, Dan Bartlett, earlier today, does that limit the president's effectiveness in making his case.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DAN BARTLETT, WHITE HOUSE COUNSELOR: I think the first part of that question is whether the president has 50 percent approval rating or 60 percent approval rating, the Social Security system is still going to go broke. Doesn't matter if he has a 50 percent approval rating or a 60 percent approval rating. Many Americans, younger Americans don't believe the retirement system is going to be there for them. That has nothing to do with President Bush's standing.
What President Bush does have with the American people is that he went specifically to them and ran on a specific agenda, clearly articulated where he wants to take the country, and 61 million Americans said, "You're our guy for the next four years."
KING: His own party has significant disagreements with the president on the issue of immigration. How hard will he hit that in his speech tonight? And how important will hit it in the early days of this first term when he obviously wants to advance his key priorities?
BARTLETT: Well, immigration is an issue that has flummoxed policymakers for many years. And President Bush has a key understanding of this, because he was a governor from a border state. Texas shares 2,000 miles of border.
KING: Many Republicans think he wants to reward people who broke the law.
BARTLETT: He'll be very clear tonight -- he'll be very clear tonight that this is not an amnesty program. This is a worker program that reflects the realities in our workplaces, throughout the country.
There are some jobs in America that Americans just don't want to do. We're forcing businessmen, good, honest, hardworking businessmen to make difficult choices about maybe hiring illegals. That's not the kind of system we want. That's not the kind of economy we want and it's not the type of values and ideals that we live up to.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: So tough challenges for the president tonight. Very tough challenges for this president, overcoming Democratic opposition and Republican unease on Social Security; overcoming Republican opposition on immigration.
On the international front, the president will be quite upbeat about last Sunday's elections in Iraq but say it is way too soon to talk about any timetable for bringing home U.S. troops.
He also will offer a new aid package to the newly elected Palestinian leadership and say he believes and that the administration will push to get the Palestinians and the Israelis back to the table. Mr. Bush will say in his view, Middle East peace perhaps finally within reach -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, thank you. John King. As John just reported, the president's biggest challenge tonight will likely be to win over members of his own party in the increasingly contentious debate over the future of Social Security.
But that's not the only issue are, of course, unsettling many Republicans. They are also concerned about the invasion of illegal aliens into this country and the soaring record trade and budget deficits.
Ed Henry reports from Capitol Hill -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Lou.
You're right. This is a new political dynamic for this president. In the first four years of his presidency, he pretty much got this Republican Congress to go along on much of his domestic and foreign agenda. But right now, you're right, as he sends his new federal budget up to Capitol Hill next Monday, he's facing a lot of pressure from conservatives who want him to hold the line on spending, to cut the deficit, as well.
There's also a lot of talk about immigration reform, as John King mentioned. Next week Republican Congressman James Sensenbrenner is going to finally get a floor vote in the House on his immigration proposals, including a prohibition on illegal immigrants getting a driver's licenses. But conservatives are concerned that the president tonight will also talk and promote a guest worker program that conservatives up here do not like very much.
But as you also mentioned, the biggest potential divide coming up between Republicans will be over Social Security. There are a lot of congressional Republicans here who are nervous that, if this is not handled correctly, this could be a big political loser for those Republicans on the Hill in 2006, whereas the president is a lame duck and will not have to face the voters again.
Democrats up here, they will be exploiting that division as much as possible. Today when Democratic leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi started practicing and preparing for tonight's official response to the State of the Union address, they were hitting the president hard on Social Security. In fact, Senator Reid said that he believes the media has allowed the president to create a false crisis.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HARRY REID (D-NE), MINORITY LEADER: You folks have brought on to something that doesn't really deserve all the attention it gets. Social Security is not in crisis. Underline, underscored, parenthesis, big bold letters. Social Security is OK for the next 50 years, and I think the president has been diverting attention from the real issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Republicans admit up here that they have not gotten off to a good start in terms of fighting politically on the Social Security issue, that Democrats have scored a lot of points. But they think, in the long run, the president now will give it a nice strong push tonight, build some momentum for the case, for Social Security reform.
And Republicans here also feel that they're starting to turn the corner on Iraq a bit, as well. So much so that some Republican lawmakers tonight, in fact, are planning on dabbing their fingers in purple ink in solidarity with the Iraqi people, who had to put their own fingers in ink in order to vote in last weekend's successful elections.
Here's Republican Congressman Jack Kingston.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. JACK KINGSTON (R), GEORGIA: I dipped my finger in purple ink today in symbolic unity and in support of the free election in Iraq, the first free election in the history of that country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now that ink will also be available for Democratic lawmakers to dip their fingers before the speech if they want to wave their fingers before the television cameras during the speech tonight. But so far Democrats, some Democrats at least privately are saying they think this is a political stunt. So we'll have to see whether or not it ends up being bipartisan or partisan -- Lou.
DOBBS: It does make one wonder why there's any more required than 150,000 U.S. troops, more than 1,400 killed in combat, 10,000 wounded, to express solidarity with the Iraqi people.
Ed, thank you very much. Ed Henry.
The president's speech tonight is likely to be full of grand declarations and promises of action. But if last year's State of the Union is any guide, President Bush will be unable to deliver on many of his commitments over the next year.
Kitty Pilgrim reports now on what's been done and what has not been done since the last State of the Union speech.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): State of the Union 2004: a lot promised, but what was accomplished?
Holding free elections in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iraq looked less likely for success at the time of the speech.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're working with Iraqis and the United Nations to prepare for a transition to full Iraqi sovereignty by the end of June.
PILGRIM: That deadline met, despite dire predictions. PATRICK BASHAM, CATO INSTITUTE: The timing of this speech tonight is most favorable to the president, because to some extent he's going to in his foreign policy segment, going to perform something of a victory lap.
PILGRIM: Another theme, war on terror, another year without terrorist attack in the United States. The nation's security measures were debated and critiqued, but no attack.
BUSH: You need to renew the Patriot Act.
PILGRIM: Not renewed, but provisions won't expire until this year.
Immigration reform: the president came up with a new temporary worker program and repeatedly used it as a campaign theme.
TAMAR JACOBY, MANHATTAN INSTITUTE: No, the president didn't move forward in a significant, concrete way to advance the proposal this year, but he has not abandoned it. He's been talking about it very actively and aggressively.
PILGRIM: Social Security reform. Only two sentences in last year's speech; expected to be a substantial part of this year's agenda.
A promise to cut the deficit in half over the next five years.
JOHN FORTIER, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: He did give himself a five-year window. And I think you'll see the president's budget coming out. There are some serious cuts in domestic spending and trying to cut back.
That being said, we're also talking about Social Security reform, which may increase our borrowing.
PILGRIM: Odds and ends: a desire to clean up steroid use in professional sports. This year, several high-profile sports figures were caught in a steroid scandal, and major league baseball strengthened its ban against the drugs.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Now, one other provision the president mentioned was energy, but an energy bill would include controversial provisions, such as drilling in northern Alaska. That was also something that he's been pushing. He did not get done in Congress last year -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much. Kitty Pilgrim.
Well, one issue that the president is unlikely to address tonight is the rising concern over the size of our Army and the National Guard's escalating recruitment problems.
The generals in charge of the National Guard today admitted their recruitment has dropped sharply over the past four months. Those generals declared that maintaining the Guard strength at 350,000 soldiers will be a challenge.
Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Every year, the National Guard counts on recruiting up to 10,000 soldiers after they leave the active duty force. But, this year, with those troops coming off tough deployments in Iraq and not anxious to be sent back to the front lines, the Guard is hurting.
LT. GEN. STEVEN BLUM, CHIEF, NATIONAL GUARD BUREAU: We are facing, no question, daunting, but surmountable challenges. That said, the National Guard is not in crisis, but it is significantly stretched.
MCINTYRE: The Guard recruiting numbers are alarming. In the first quarter of the fiscal year, the Guards signed up only 80 percent of the soldiers it needs. And, last month, the number dropped to just 56 percent. Guard officials say February looks to be just as bad, making the year-end goal, 350,000 soldiers in the Guard, highly problematic.
LT. GEN. ROGER SCHULTZ, CHIEF, ARMY NATIONAL GUARD: Our mark for 350,000 soldiers in the Army National Guard in September is a stretch, to be sure. What we are saying, however, is it is way too early to admit defeat.
REP. VIC SNYDER (D), ARKANSAS: We can't help you if we don't know what the hell is going on.
MCINTYRE: Members of the House Armed Services Committee expressed frustration that Army officials have been slow to admit how dire the problems are becoming.
SNYDER: We read these opening statements and we sit through meetings. We have our briefings, and we come out of there thinking, well, let's just put a happy face on it and go on with our work, and then we get inklings that maybe there are some icebergs under the water.
MCINTYRE; Army officials say the active duty and reserve forces are still making recruiting goals, but say that with more than 650,000 soldiers having now met their two-year limit on deployment, finding new troops to send is getting harder every day.
REP. JOHN MCHUGH (R), NEW YORK: The Army, and, by that, I mean, Active, Guard and Reserve, is simply too small and improperly structured to successfully fulfill, perform all the nation is asking it to do.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: So far, the response of the Army is to add more recruiters. More than 2,000 will be trying to bring in fresh troops. But Army officials say the real problem is the mid-level officers that are not so easy to replace.
Today, the head of the Army Reserves said he was short 5,000 captains. Those are key positions he said would take four to six years to train them and promote them up -- Lou.
DOBBS: Is this then the official acknowledgment that our Reserves and our National Guard are now in trouble in terms of manpower and that the posturing of the past year has been precisely that, posturing on the part of the Pentagon?
MCINTYRE: Well, that was -- that was the subject of this hearing this afternoon, and it's a long and complicated subject.
But the bottom line is the Guard is definitely in trouble. It sort of cascades. The Reserve is also feeling a strain. The active duty force is in the best shape.
There are a lot of positive signs, but the key is they can't sustain this pace indefinitely. They need to either have a bigger army if they're going to sustain this pace or the pace has to drop off in the year or two to come, and that's what they're wrestling with.
DOBBS: Wrestling with an approach that would be in direct counterdirection to that of the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in point of fact.
Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre.
Thank you, sir.
DOBBS: Next, bankrupted by medical bills. If you think your health insurance will protect you, think again.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: We reported here last month on the Mexican government's guide that it published to help illegal aliens sneak into this country. Tonight, there is outrage over a new how-to guide for illegal aliens. This one, however, was not produced by the Mexican government. It was produced by the Colorado Department of Education.
Casey Wian reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that children of illegal aliens are entitled to an education in this country, but some say the Colorado Department of Education has taken that too far.
Until this week, its Web site offered a Spanish language brochure called Survival Guide for Recent Arrivals to Colorado. Along with information useful to legal immigrants, it contains tips clearly intended for illegal aliens.
The guide advises "The job of the police is not to report you to immigration"; "Always carry the name and phone number of an attorney who will take your calls"; Some lawyers help illegal aliens for a very low price"; and "Many businesses employ illegal aliens since they do not have the responsibility to investigate the legal status of employees.
The guide was endorsed by Denver's Mexican consulate, but it also contained a welcome message from Colorado Governor Bill Owens who says he thought it was advice for legal immigrants. Governor Owens ordered it removed from the state's Web site this week after Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo wrote a letter of protest.
REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: It's amazing. What would the Mexican government do if we did something like that? They would immediately file a protest. Yet we are really silent on it because I think we are co-conspirators.
WIAN: The booklet was produced and distributed by an immigrant education group called Focus Points Family Resource Center. It said in a statement, "The guide tries to inform people of their rights. It informs people how to navigate the community safely."
Funding came in part from First Data Western Union, which profits from illegal aliens sending money home. The guide even mentions Western Union and includes a sample family budget showing $200 for relatives in Mexico.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: The Colorado Department of Education's director of English language acquisition says the guide contains lots of useful information, and, if some portions are raising concerns, he'd like to see them modified so the rest of the document can be used.
While it's off the state Web site, it was still on the Denver public school district's Web site late today -- Lou.
DOBBS: Congressman Tancredo said -- I mean, I just -- this leaves one almost speechless. How in the world does Governor Owens justify both his imprimatur on that product in permitting a state government department to produce it?
WIAN: Well, he says that he thought it was a guide for legal immigrants. It's, frankly, very tough to square with the reading of the guide, even in Spanish. It's very clear that a lot of the information in it is directed at illegal aliens, information that legal immigrants would probably have no use for -- Lou.
DOBBS: Casey, thank you very much.
Casey Wian.
In our special report tonight, "Assault on the Middle Class," a further assault on the middle class, we might say. Startling new information tonight about the cause of many of the personal bankruptcies which are skyrocketing in this country. A new report says half of all personal bankruptcies are now the result of soaring medical bills. But what's even more shocking, middle-class families with health insurance are at risk.
Christine Romans reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Middle-class Americans, like Maria Vasquez, are just a car crash or serious illness away from financial ruin, and health insurance doesn't help. She's a secretary with lung cancer, filing for bankruptcy, she says, for one reason...
MARIA VASQUEZ, FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY: Just the medical bills is astronomical. And now the insurance -- not only that, but now the co- payment goes up. The medicines are -- every time I turn around, I have to take something different. So that's more money.
ROMANS: For a study published in the journal Health Affairs, Harvard University researchers pored over 1,700 bankruptcy filings in five states. More than half of the filers said out-of-pocket medical expenses played a role in their financial troubles, and most of those filers were middle-class workers with health insurance.
DR. DAVID HIMMELSTEIN, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: I think it tells us no one in this country is safe other than maybe Bill Gates. But if you're sick enough long enough, even if you have coverage, if you have a good job, you could be bankrupted by the cost of your care or the severity of your illness.
ROMANS: The average bankrupt person with insurance shelled out more than $13,000 in medical copayments, and the report found that insured cancer patients face out-of-pocket expenses topping $35,000.
Bankruptcy attorney Charles Juntikka says medical bankruptcies are exploding.
CHARLES JUNTIKKA, BANKRUPTCY ATTORNEY: Starting, you know, 10 years ago or so, we started to get more people with medical bills and they would owe $5,000, $10,000. And when it first started happening, we'd go, oh, you don't have coverage? And they go, oh, yes, I have coverage, but it doesn't cover anything.
ROMANS: The Harvard study found medical-related bankruptcies are up 30-fold since 1981.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROMANS: Now an insurance industry spokesperson said identifying financial stresses for American families is very important to the insurance industry as well. But she said that the Harvard study doesn't dig deeply enough into all of the problems. She also said that insurance industry studies show that most people underestimate the likelihood that something terrible is going to happen to them and they overestimate their resources. DOBBS: That's human nature. But what is not rational nor easily explained is why the Republicans right now are trying to push further over to the individual responsibility for health care rather than the employer. This is a huge issue, and this study out of Harvard is as important as it is alarming.
Christine, thank you very much.
Christine Romans.
That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight: Which do you think is of the greatest concern to our middle class -- Social Security, national security, job security or health-care security? Cast your vote, please, at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up later in the broadcast.
It seems winter is here to stay, at least for another six weeks. That forecast according to the world-renowned authority, Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil. Some 2,000 people gathered, as is traditional, by 3:30 this morning on Gobblers Knob in Pennsylvania.
They were waiting to see whether the world famous marmot would see his shadow. He did. And that, of course, means winter will last for at least a little longer. This tradition has been celebrated since 1886. There's no clear factual record on the accuracy, however, of all of this.
Next, a frightening rush-hour plane crash.
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DOBBS: In our special report tonight, fast tracking free trade. President Bush has the authority to push so-called free trade agreements through Congress with very little, if any, debate.
Critics say the fast tracking of free trade has been an utter failure that has cost thousands upon thousands of American jobs. In spite of that criticism, President Bush will ask Congress to extend fast-track authority for another two years.
Lisa Sylvester reports from Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Bush administration has reached fast track trade agreements with Chile, Singapore, Morocco and Australia in the last two-and-a-half years. Congress could make no changes to the deals. They could only vote yes or no. Critics say the fast track system has helped fuel a record $600 billion trade deficit.
SEN. BYRON DORGAN (D), NORTH DAKOTA: This whole free trade's like a loose thread on a cheap suit, you know. You pull this thing and the arms come off. I don't think that people can justify on the floor of the Senate or the U.S. House the current trade strategy because it is not working. It's digging a big hole for this country's future.
SYLVESTER: Congress has a chance this session to deny fast track authority, but only if Senate Finance Chairman Charles Grassley and House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas allow it. Both men are solidly in the free trade camp.
SEN. KENT CONRAD (D), NORTH DAKOTA: I think it's very clear they don't want to face a vote in the House of Representatives, they don't want to face a vote in the United States Senate because support for the trade policy that's being pursued now is dramatically weakened.
SYLVESTER: Free trade supporters argue fast track trade agreements have helped grow the economy.
DANIEL MITCHELL, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: If the legislative process is such that a proposal can't even make it through committee, by definition, it doesn't have enough support to be on the floor. That's the way our system is structured.
SYLVESTER: But critics of the fast track system say the record speaks for itself.
THEA LEE, ECONOMIST, AFL-CIO: Overall, fast track's been a disaster really, certainly for American workers. Our trade deficit has skyrocketed. We've lost hundreds of thousands of more jobs as we've negotiated new flawed trade agreements.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: The president has until March 1 to seek an extension of fast track authority which he is all but certain to do, and lawmakers have until June 1 to put forward a disapproval resolution. Even though the odds are greatly stacked against Senator Byron Dorgan, he will try to put the brakes on fast track authority -- Lou.
DOBBS: To Senator Dorgan's credit, he's doing something critically important. That's restoring at least the idea of oversight and participation on the part of our legislative branch. Congress to this point has been delighted not to take responsibility for these trade agreements. Perhaps that will change over the next several months.
Lisa Sylvester.
Thank you very much.
Next, critical issues that President Bush will not be addressing in his State of the Union speech tonight. But we will. Stay with us.
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ANNOUNCER: LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Here now for more news, debate and opinion, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: I'll be joined by the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee in just a moment, Congressman Duncan Hunter. But let's first take a look at these headlines.
A dramatic scene today in Teterboro, New Jersey, where a corporate jet crashed into a warehouse after a failed take-off. The jet sped off the end of the runway, crossed a busy highway, and struck several cars before crashing into a warehouse. At least 20 people were injured in the incident. The driver of one car is in critical condition, but incredibly, no one killed.
Pope John Paul II tonight is in stable condition a day after being hospitalized for acute respiratory infection. The Vatican says the Pope will remain in the hospital for several days.
And the Federal Reserve today raised interest rates by a quarter- point to 2.5 percent, that rate hike the sixth since June.
In his State of the Union speech tonight, President Bush will likely call for tough fiscal discipline to help reduce the huge federal budget deficit. But President Bush is unlikely to talk about Pentagon budget proposals to cut more than $50 billion from Air Force and Navy equipment weapons programs over the next six years. And President Bush is unlikely to address calls in Congress for a permanent increase in the size of the Army to help ease the strains that are building on our military from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the war on terror.
Joining me now from Washington, D.C. is the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Congressman Duncan Hunter.
Congressman, good to have you here.
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DUNCAN HUNTER (R), CALIFORNIA: Hey, good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: Let's begin with the reported cuts of some $50 billion being called for, that to be borne principally by the Navy and the Air Force. Are you are in favor of those cuts?
HUNTER: Well, Lou, no. We came out of an enormous hole, if you will, when in the Clinton administration we under-funded modernization during the '90s by about $50 billion bucks a year. This administration has admirably started to increase that.
We moved to about a $72 billion modernization expenditure each year for the last several years. But this, for the next year, it levels out. And, in leveling out, they are going to be cutting back on the number of Joint Strike Fighters and other aircraft, like the C- 130. I think we need to continue this modernization trend and continue to make sure that our troops have the very finest equipment.
DOBBS: That puts the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee in direct opposition to the secretary of defense, because he wants to move away from the heavier ships and air technology to low- tech, so says the Pentagon, approaches to war fighting. What do you -- how do we resolve it? HUNTER: Well, actually, I think that the -- you know, when we won this war, when we took Baghdad down, we actually used some of the old, some of the new. Sure, we used the new modern precision missiles that could go in and knock a tank out from 30 miles away. But we also used things like heavy armor. We had that blitzkrieg armor attack. We used tanks. We used Bradleys.
And so a lot of the classic war-fighting materials came into play. And I think that the secretary has a new appreciation for a lot of the systems that we've had in place. And remember, Lou, we have to fight all kinds of wars. We have to fight conventional wars, as well as a war against terrorism.
DOBBS: Do you think the secretary has a new appreciation for boots on the ground?
HUNTER: You know what...
DOBBS: Congress has called for 30,000, an increase, a permanent increase of 30,000 troops for the Army. This secretary of defense has made it clear he wants to resist it at all -- at almost every front.
HUNTER: Actually, Lou, we passed that last year. We passed an increase of not only Army, but Marines last year, and we have about an additional 30,000 troops in the Army now coming aboard pursuant to the permanent in-strength increases we made in last year's bill. And the president signed it. In the end, the secretary endorsed that.
DOBBS: The secretary, though, continues to resist the calls for more troops in Iraq. And meanwhile, the Democrats are calling for an exit strategy that means U.S. troops should be withdrawing, as some have said, including Senator Ted Kennedy, almost immediately.
HUNTER: Yes, Lou, I think that's -- I think the idea of putting a time table on this thing is bad. Our exit strategy is the stand-up of the Iraqi forces.
And let me tell you, one thing that happened in this last -- the election just a couple of days ago -- over 100 attacks were made by the insurgents on these voting places. And at those places that were guarded by the Iraqi National Guard, and their police forces, interestingly, they all held. None of them let the attackers through. And in several places, they were killed as a result of that. But they didn't let them through, and they had over 100 attacks.
So, to some degree, this insurgency has battle-hardened some of the Iraqi forces. Talk with our top guys in the Pentagon today on how well these forces are standing up. We have a long way to go, but we do have some Iraqi forces that have stood tall in this last round of voting.
DOBBS: And in each case the National Guard and the Reserves playing an important part in supporting those Iraqi forces and in the war in Iraq, as you well know. The fact of the matter is the National Guard today all but admitted, acknowledged publicly, and as straightforwardly as things can be, it seems, in Washington, said they have got a problem with recruitment. They are not able to meet those goals. How serious do you think it is? What are you going to do to help?
HUNTER: Well, first, I think that the -- there's 43 percent of the people fighting in theater in Iraq, our National Guard and Reserve. They are doing a great job. And it's because of them and the active soldiers who carried this election literally on their shoulders, and we had free elections.
I think Americans are a lot tougher than the think-tanks give them credit for. And what we have to do is start drawing those troops down as we hand this job off to the Iraqi forces.
What we've discovered, Lou, is that it takes -- you can drive an armored wedge up to Baghdad with a relatively small force. Occupation is labor-intensive. It takes a lot of people. And the sooner we can turn over part of this job and get some of those 150,000 Americans out of there, the sooner we'll ease that stress on the Guard.
But let me tell you. I've got a lot more faith in the strength and the resiliency of the Guard and Reserve than a lot of the think- tanks that are predicting that it's going to be somehow broken. Americans don't break.
And, you know, if you ask anybody today, the Marines came back in -- the Marines who have been fighting in Fallujah came back in just a few days ago, and even the families of those killed in action came down to meet the battalions. None of them had anything bad to say about this operation. Quite interesting.
DOBBS: Congressman, no time is there a question here about the strength, the resiliency, the dedication of our troops, whether the Guard, the Reserve or active duty. My question was really about what are we going to do in the Pentagon and the Congress to support the National Guard that is screaming for some help in terms of the missing recruiting goals. We'll get to that question the next time.
Duncan Hunter, we appreciate you being here, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
HUNTER: Good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: So-called Social Security reform will be at the center of the president's State of the Union address tonight. The president no longer says our Social Security system is in crisis, but the president's surrogates still do.
Earlier, I talked with Senator Jay Rockefeller and asked him whether there's a particular reason for the great hurry on Social Security reform in his judgment.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
U.S. SENATOR JAY ROCKEFELLER (D), WEST VIRGINIA: Lou, there really isn't. I mean, as you say, there's not a crisis now. We can go on until the year 2042. With a little bit of tinkering, we can go on to the year 2075. If we took just one-third of the permanent -- making permanent tax decreases for basically upper-income people, just one-third of that amount that he's going to try and do this year, that would solve all of our Social Security problems through the year 2075. I mean, I think there are ways to fix this without cutting benefits and raising payroll taxes.
DOBBS: Well, most everyone agrees that anything approaching the president's plan is going to be somewhere between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in transition costs, or $1 to $2 trillion added to the federal budget and, therefore, the national debt, because we're in deficit.
Why is there not a greater concern right now about fiscal management in this country? Why are the Democrats, in point of fact, not more concerned about a sagging dollar, the tremendous impact that this burgeoning trade deficit is having on the slowdown in our economy?
ROCKEFELLER: Lou, I would have to say that we do have that concern. It's hard to sort of find a forum for it. And you've given me a little one here.
I mean, look, we're borrowing money like crazy. Our trade deficit's the biggest ever. You just basically add that on to the annual budget deficit and then you figure out what your interest you're paying on the national debt. And we're borrowing our money basically from Chinese and Japanese banks, virtually all of it. I don't think Americans want that. I don't think Americans want to leave that kind of inheritance to their grandchildren, that kind of huge debt. I mean, I think it's about $30,000 per person.
DOBBS: Border security, port security, the reform of the intelligence agencies in which you've played an important part. Here we are in the second month of this new year, and we still don't have a national director of intelligence.
ROCKEFELLER: That's a matter of concern. I mean, you would think. I mean, I sit on the Intelligence Committee. And I am just waiting so much to try and take this sort of vague system which we've created and start putting the pieces together. But we can't do that until we get a director of national intelligence.
Robert Gates turned it down. I don't know how many others have turned it down. I mean, it's the president's obligation to come up with a first-class person who, when he does, we will be more than happy to expedite that person's confirmation so we can get to work on making this nation more secure. There is just so much that we're not doing.
DOBBS: And, Senator, at this point, the Republican Party is showing marked signs of division on issues that we've just discussed. But also the issue of immigration, and particularly the guest worker program the president has advanced. What is your position? What is the Democratic position on what is nothing less than an immigration policy crisis in this country? ROCKEFELLER: There is not, at this point, a Democratic position on that issue. We have not caucused on it. We've not had massive hearings on it. And in the Intelligence Committee, we've had no hearings on it.
But it's interesting -- and I don't want to throw you off on this -- but immigration plays into Social Security, because it has the number of people who will be paying payroll taxes, because often people who come into this country will do work that Americans won't do. On the other hand, illegal immigration is a little hard to take.
DOBBS: For many people, Senator, as you know, more than just a little hard to take. As you say, related to Social Security, also very much related to national security and border security.
Senator Jay Rockefeller, as always, it's good to have you with us. Thank you.
ROCKEFELLER: Thank you, Lou.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Taking a look now at some of your thoughts on the issue of broken borders.
Cece in Rosemont, Illinois, wrote in to say, "I am glad to support Arizona in their fight to secure their border against illegal aliens. Perhaps Mexico should spend less time and money trying to secure liberties and freedoms here in the United States for their illegal expatriates and spend more time trying to create a hospitable environment for its citizens at home."
And Hilary Vickman in Albuquerque, New Mexico: "It seems to me that we have given away control of our borders rather than losing it. When we do little or nothing to enforce the law, can that be called 'losing' control?"
And Marc in North Caldwell, New Jersey: "What on earth is going on with Mexico? First, they write a handbook on how to get into our country illegally. Then they want to challenge one of our state's laws. Why doesn't the Mexican government try making their own country better so their citizens might want to actually stay?"
We appreciate hearing your thoughts. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs.com.
Next, the battle for the future of the U.S. Supreme Court.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Joining me now for more on the president's State of the Union address and the state of the union is Senator Arlen Specter, who is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which, of course, considers all judicial nominees.
Senator Arlen Specter, good to have you with us tonight from Capitol Hill.
U.S. SENATOR ARLEN SPECTER (R), PENNSYLVANIA: Thanks for the invitation, Lou. Nice being with you.
DOBBS: Senator, Alberto Gonzales, the status of his nomination process?
SPECTER: Well, I think he'll be confirmed tomorrow, Lou, largely along party lines. I had hoped to have a strong vote in his favor. Judge Gonzales has essentially been blamed for things he didn't do for a Department of Justice memorandum which was clearly wide of the mark on defining the law. And then it was up to the Department of Defense and CIA to structure the questions.
But in this heavy political climate, where Condoleezza Rice had more votes against her on the nomination for secretary of state than anybody going back to John Jay in 1824, you can see it's a pretty heavy political season.
DOBBS: And in this heavy political season, nominees to move forward, the Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has said that he is going to, if there is obstruction, as he puts it, in terms of this process, and these nominees of the president are not -- judicial nominees of the president are not given an opportunity for a floor vote, that he's going to look at escalating this to nuclear, as he put it, options. What is your thinking?
SPECTER: Well, it is my hope that we won't get there. I am working hard with Senator Leahy, Senator Schumer and other Democrats to find a way to confirm the president's nominees without going to the nuclear option.
If that happens, I think it will be -- it will be tough. Harry Reid, the leader of the Democrats, has been pretty blunt about it. His words are not too delicate. They are his words, but Senator Reid said he would "screw things up," quote, unquote. And it only takes one senator around here to throw a monkey wrench into the operations. So I'm working very hard as the new chairman of the committee to try to see if we can't get it worked out without the nuclear option, Lou.
DOBBS: In addition, of course, to the nomination process, the judiciary process, there is the matter of legislation. And the class action fairness bill is before your committee tomorrow and part of the tort reform package. Is it going to pass? What will be its impact, in your opinion?
SPECTER: I think it is highly likely to pass. But we're going to try to get it out of committee tomorrow without amendments, trying to get it to the floor. And then there will be a debate. And there may be some changes to it. But my expectation is the class action bill will pass.
DOBBS: And move to the floor. Do you think it will succeed there, given the criticism in many quarters that corporate America's accountability, in particular in this area, would be reduced?
SPECTER: Well, I think that it has the votes. It had more than 60 votes last year, and the bill is largely the same.
DOBBS: Senator Arlen Specter, we thank you. As you put it, a heavy political season. We thank you for sharing your thoughts with us here tonight.
SPECTER: Good to be with you, Lou. Thank you for the invitation.
DOBBS: A reminder now to vote in our poll tonight. The question is: "Which do you think is of most concern to our middle class, Social Security, national security, job security, health care security?" A lot of security to choose among. Please cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results coming up in just a matter of moments.
Next here, a successful election in Iraq. But will that bring our troops home any sooner?
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DOBBS: My next guest is just back from Iraq where he witnessed the elections there first-hand this Sunday. Congressman Christopher Shays calls the election Sunday one of the most incredible days of his life.
Congressman, good to have you here.
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE CHRISTOPHER SHAYS (R), CONNECTICUT: Good to be with you, Lou.
DOBBS: Let's just turn to the election itself. A surprise to many people, particularly the naysayers, that the election was brought off and, secondly, the level of participation on the part of the Iraqis, I think, was also a surprise to many.
SHAYS: Well, more Iraqis basically participated on a percentage basis than participate in our own elections in the United States. But what was so thrilling about this was that about 150,000 Iraqis participated in running the election. They were separate from the political parties, and they did it so well. They were trained by people throughout the world, particularly from the National Endowment for Democracy, that is funded out of the United States, the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute.
DOBBS: Do you believe the apparent success of those elections is a validation of the president's Iraq policies?
SHAYS: It's a validation that the Iraqis can pull this thing off. They've got three areas. They've got to prove they can handle the political challenge that they are doing right now. They have an economic challenge, and they have a security challenge. And all of them they need to make progress on. But it's a major step forward.
DOBBS: This is your seventh trip to Iraq over the past two years. A great deal of discussion about the level of participation by the Sunnis. Give us your best judgment as to, one, how important or unimportant the participation was and what we can expect over the next six to 12 months?
SHAYS: Well, some Sunnis didn't participate because they were told not to. Other Sunnis wanted to participate, but they felt their lives were in danger. And others participated in spite of the fact they were told not to, in spite of the fact their lives were in danger.
What I particularly like is I've met with both the prime minister and the president, the president this last visit. Both have told me they have been reaching out to the Sunnis and have made them feel that they can have a role to play.
What's important about a new democracy is they get majority rule but it's hard to understand compromising minority rights. But they are getting to understand minority rights.
May I say one other thing real quickly? In the Middle East, compromise is viewed as a negative, so we have to overcome that hurdle.
DOBBS: Let's turn quickly to domestic issues, the State of the Union. We've got just about a minute, Congressman.
The president is going to focus on Social Security. There are immense divisions, as you are aware, within the president's party, as well as the contest with the Democrats. Do you support the president putting so much quote, unquote, "political capital" behind this initiative, and do you think it has a chance in the world of being successful?
SHAYS: Well, I respect him for doing it. And I think he's right to say, "Deal with it before it's a crisis." But, you know, we do need to get our country's financial house in order and deal with the trade imbalance and move the economy forward. That's one thing.
We do need to win the war against terrorism at home and abroad and continue the progress in Iraq. And it's been not consistent, just those two things.
But, yes, we do need to deal with Social Security and Medicare. We do need -- we have a serious transportation challenge and need to improve that. We need to educate our kids. We need to deal with immigration. So I hope these other issues don't get lost in the debate on Social Security.
DOBBS: Congressman Christopher Shays, good to see you.
SHAYS: Thank you.
DOBBS: Next, the results of our poll tonight, and a preview of what's ahead tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The results of our poll tonight, an interesting breakdown. Fifty percent of you say health care security is the biggest concern to America's middle class. Thirty-three percent say job security. Eleven percent, Social Security. Only five percent say national security. Fascinating results of our poll tonight.
We hope you will watch our special coverage tonight of the State of the Union address beginning at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 p.m. Pacific, right here on CNN. Thanks for being with us tonight.
Please join us here tomorrow evening. My guests will include the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, the chairman of the Senate Rules Committee. Also tomorrow, "New York Times" columnist Paul Krugman on Social Security, and why he says privatization isn't a very good idea, to say the least.
And "Exporting Creativity": The advertising industry in this country is next to export jobs to those cheap foreign labor markets. Our special report, please be with us.
For all of us here, good night from New York. "ANDERSON COOPER 360" is next.
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