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American Morning
Iran: The Next Front?; Interview With Former President Jimmy Carter; Reaction to Rice
Aired February 09, 2005 - 9:01 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Police in Spain on the hunt for terrorists again today after a car packed with explosives explodes in central Madrid.
Speculation that the U.S. might launch air strikes against Iran. This morning we'll have a look at the military realities of that.
The tiniest baby ever, born not much bigger than a cell phone. She is home and she is bigger. And her parents introduce us to her this morning.
And something that crawled out of China. A big start to the year of rooster on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, I love that videotape of those little chicks dancing around the big old rooster. They're so cute.
Good morning. Welcome back, everybody.
Other news that's making headlines this morning, a moment of opportunity in the Middle East. Israeli and Palestinian leaders said to be working today on some longstanding issues after yesterday's cease-fire agreement. Former President Jimmy Carter knows just what it takes to get results in that part of the world. We're going to talk to him about that, get his insights coming up in just a moment.
HEMMER: Also, Condoleezza Rice. Has she won over the French? The secretary of state getting some pretty good reviews after visiting Paris. We'll talk about her reception with a journalist from one of the big French television stations coming up in a moment here as we get you back over the Atlantic in a moment.
O'BRIEN: Reviews only about sort of what she said. But they've been writing about what she's wearing and her hair and her shoes. It's kind of interesting.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Wasn't she -- wasn't she fawning over the French about their help in resolving the Cold War?
O'BRIEN: And they are fawning back about her chic Italian heels, her...
CAFFERTY: No, no, no, no, no. What exactly did the French do to help resolve the Cold War?
O'BRIEN: Not a lot. Very little.
CAFFERTY: Thank you.
Moving on, President Bush says he'll cut the deficit in half in four years. Think he can do it? AM@CNN.com. We'll read some e- mails.
O'BRIEN: We'll get right to the headlines. Heidi Collins in for us this morning.
Good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, guys. And good morning to you, everybody.
"Now in the News" this morning, a CNN "Security Watch." An investigation continues this hour into a car bomb attack in Madrid, Spain. Spanish officials say at least 42 people were injured in the blast. A caller claiming to be with the Basque separatist group Eta reportedly warned a Basque newspaper a half-hour before the attack.
Stay with CNN day and night for the most reliable news about your security.
The Lent season begins today, without officials blessings, though, from the pope. For the first time in his 26-year term, Pope John Paul II is missing Ash Wednesday services at the Vatican. He is expected to stay at a Rome hospital until at least tomorrow.
The 84-year-old pontiff is recovering from complications brought on by the flu. He also suffers from Parkinson's Disease.
The new Medicare drug plan is carrying a large price tag, and there's now word the cost is bigger than expected. The White House estimates the plan will cost $720 billion during its first 10 years. That figure blamed in part on soaring costs of prescription drugs. The new drug plan is set to take effect next year.
And happy new year to you. Thousands of people in China and throughout the world celebrating the year of the rooster, lighting incense as a form of prayers for a good year. And what celebration would be complete without this? The special dance.
A whole group of little chickens dancing around the big rooster celebrating the lunar new year. They're saying good-bye to the year of the monkey.
O'BRIEN: They are so cute.
HEMMER: Yes, they are.
COLLINS: Where's the monkey? I don't see a monkey though.
O'BRIEN: No monkey. He's gone, and that year. They've moved on to the rooster.
COLLINS: They're very well choreographed.
O'BRIEN: They are very -- they're pretty darn good for like -- looks like 5-year-olds.
COLLINS: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Heidi.
HEMMER: There's a new warning for Iran this morning. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice saying that Tehran may face U.N. sanctions if it does not pull back its efforts to build nuclear weapons.
Rice is in Brussels at this hour meeting with the NATO secretary- general. She's about to speak at a joint press conference. We're monitoring that for you. In about an hour she's also scheduled to meet European commission officials as her tour overseas continues.
O'BRIEN: Secretary Rice has said a U.S. attack on Iran is "not on the agenda." But what if diplomacy fails? What options are left? Barbara Starr is at the Pentagon for us this morning.
Barbara, good morning.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you again, Soledad.
Well, that is one of the questions. With all of the tough talk from Washington, all the way to Tehran, if it ever came to it, is there such a thing as a limited strike against Iran? And what would it look like?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
STARR (voice-over): One-hundred and fifty miles southwest of Tehran, the Iraq heavy water plant, a facility international inspectors believe is critical to Iran's nuclear weapons program, one of many suspected nuclear sites the U.S. says are well hidden around the country.
Finding all of the sites would be just one problem in launching any so-called limited strike to take them out. To avoid Iranian military on the ground, the U.S. would likely fire from long distance, using Tomahawk cruise muscles from ships in the Persian Gulf and precision bombs from the long range B-2 stealth bomber.
But military and security experts agree Iran's religious leaders would strike back hard.
KEN POLLACK, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: There's no reason to believe that the Iranians would see them limited. In fact, Iranians might choose to retaliate in a far less limited fashion, in particular, they're likely to try to employ terrorist attacks.
STARR: Iran's longstanding support for Hezbollah and its ability to marshal terrorist attacks in retaliation is a major concern. But there is more. Experts say Iran could retaliate with a missile strike. With a range of 1,500 kilometers, its Shahab 3 (ph) and other missiles could hit U.S. troops in Iraq and Kuwait, strike Israel, and even reach Turkey. Iran's mobile launchers would be difficult to preemptively destroy.
Former Defense Secretary William Cohen is an ardent supporter of diplomacy with Iran, and he knows the limits of the limited-strike option.
In 1998, the U.S. conducted air strikes against Saddam Hussein's missile facilities, hoping to halt his missile production for two years.
RICHARD COHEN, FMR. SECY. OF DEFENSE: You can reconstitute facilities that are destroyed, and so unless you're talking about all- out devastation and an occupation of a country with widespread destruction, limited attacks are good on a temporary basis. But again, the downside is you may end up causing a national -- a rise in nationalism and a revolution of a different support against the United States.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: So, could the U.S. military launch a limited strike against Iran? The answer, of course, is yes. But administration officials continue to say that they are pursuing an aggressive policy of diplomacy. And no military action is expected -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: And they've been emphasizing the diplomacy part of that. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us this morning. Barbara, thank you.
Tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING, we'll take a look at a worst-case scenario, all-out war with Iran. That's on Thursday morning, 7:00 a.m. Eastern, right here on CNN -- Bill.
HEMMER: About nine minutes now past the hour, Soledad.
Palestinian and Israeli officials this morning announcing that major checkpoints will be removed as Israel gets ready to pull out of five West Bank towns. The first steps toward this latest peace effort began with last month's elections for the Palestinians.
Former President Jimmy Carter was there for those elections. And the former president currently trying to bring aid to Guyana in South America. Heavy rain since Christmas has caused severe flooding and now water-borne disease. Former President Jimmy Carter is at his home in Plains, Georgia.
Welcome back here, Mr. President. Good morning to you.
JAMES CARTER, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Thank you. It's good to be with you and the CNN folks.
HEMMER: Let's talk about the Middle East and Iraq in a moment here. First, what is happening in Guyana that is drawing so much attention there now?
CARTER: Well, Guyana is a small, relatively unknown country in Latin America. As you know, English-speaking, they have about 700,000 people. And the remarkable thing about this little country is that about half the total population, in fact 90 percent of the total population, lives in an area right on the sea coast that is six feet below sea level.
And in January, late in January, they got enormous rains, unprecedented rains. Over half the number of people in the whole country are under water. And now they have 50 irrigation pumps running.
In the meantime, they've pumped the border down about -- oh, once inch a day it goes down. But the problem is that dengue fever and a disease called leptospirosis and malaria are becoming more and more prevalent in Guyana.
The unfortunate timing of this catastrophe for the little country was that it came at the same time as the tsunami relief. And everybody's concentrating on the tsunami problem and ignoring Guyana.
So I would just like to urge everyone to be generous in contributing to the International Red Cross. That's www.ifrc.com. And help the people Guyana.
This is very important to those people. And they're doing the best they can on their own.
HEMMER: In addition to the Red Cross, Mr. President, the U.N. is asking for an appeal for $3 million immediately. Where would that money go? And how can they use that today?
CARTER: It's primarily for cleanup. As I say, just some, you know, regular irrigation pumps running. They're pumping water back into the sea. This comes down from enormous rivers as they got 30 inches of rain in just a few days.
This is about four times as much rain as they ordinarily get during this time. It's the worst flood in 100 years.
Then the relief funds would go for humanitarian aid, to rebuild the houses, but primarily for cleanup. Same basic problem that we've heard so much about in the tsunami area.
HEMMER: And your point is very well taken about the other story getting so much attention, from southeast Asia. IFRC.com is the Web site there.
Let's talk about the Middle East, with Condoleezza Rice recently there this past week. Is there any reason for you to be more optimistic now about a peace deal holding than in the past, or is this more of the same?
CARTER: Well, I was in the Palestine area in January when they had the election and chose Abu Mazen to be their president. I think he's shown, as he promised me he would, and others, that he's been very courageous and very effective so far, at least, in holding down the constant skirmishes around Gaza, which is a completely enclosed city, formerly controlled and still controlled by the Israelis. As they move out it will a good test on his leadership.
I have complete confidence in him. Although he tried to be prime minister, as you know, last year for a while, he was still working under the domination of Yasser Arafat. And he was kind of -- had his legs cut off by both Israel and the United States and couldn't be effective.
Now, though, he's been elected on his own. And I think so far, since he was elected, he has shown remarkable courage and also remarkable and surprising effectiveness.
So it's a good hope for the future. The tough negotiations and the tough decisions by Israel and the Palestinians are still to come. We'll be watching closely.
The next time I'll be over there, by the way, will be in July, when the Palestinians will choose their parliamentary members. And the hope is -- and I expect -- that Hamas, one of the key -- I guess opposition group, to put it mildly, intend to put candidates in the election. So this might moderate their position and reduce the violence that they have in the past initiated.
HEMMER: I want to talk about Iraq now and the post-election phase at this point. Still waiting results, official results. Maybe we'll get them tomorrow, on Thursday, perhaps in the days after that.
I haven't heard you speak just yet in the aftermath of the elections. Many say this is history and this is progress for the Iraqi people and perhaps for the entire Middle East. Do you see it the same way?
CARTER: Yes, I think it was a very successful effort. And although the -- as you know, the Sunnis almost refused to participate and played a very small role in the most troubled and I'll say violent areas of Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds turned out in surprising numbers. Now the question is, will this be a Shiite-dominated religious organization formed as the next government, or will it be a democratic secular one? And will there be some way to encourage the Sunnis to come back in and participate?
I hope that we'll have every success in Iraq. And that election, I think, was a surprisingly good step forward.
HEMMER: Thank you, Mr. President. Jimmy Carter down in Plains, Georgia.
Also, on the topic of Guyana, I misspoke for a moment here. IFRC.org, as opposed to dot-com. Thanks. And we'll speak again. Nice to see you.
CARTER: Thanks a lot.
HEMMER: Here's Soledad
O'BRIEN: Let's take a look at the weather now. Chad Myers is at the CNN Center for us with the very latest forecast.
Hello again, Chad.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
O'BRIEN: All right, Chad. Thanks.
You know what? I bet the folks on the West Coast are like, it's fine to not talk about us today. Because sometimes when the weather guy talks about you, it's not all good news.
MYERS: Exactly.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Chad.
MYERS: All right.
O'BRIEN: Well, it was easily the most touching commercial of the Super Bowl, Anheuser-Busch's tribute to America's military. One of the 12 real-life soldiers in that ad tells us what it's like to now be a celebrity.
HEMMER: Also in a moment, what's more important for a secretary of state, is it diplomacy or is it fashion sense in France? We'll have a look at that today.
O'BRIEN: And a huge day for the world's littlest baby. Wait until you see what she looks like now. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. You're looking at Condoleezza Rice in NATO headquarters in Brussels in Belgium. She's talking about Iran. Let's listen in to what the secretary of state has to say.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: ... is telling the Iranians that they're going to have to live up to their international obligations or next steps are in the offing. And I think everybody understands what "next steps" means.
We've had these discussions in the IAEA board of governors. It is obvious that if Iran cannot be brought to live up to its international obligations, that, in fact, the IAEA statutes would suggest that Iran has to be referred to the U.N. Security Council.
I said yesterday, the day before or the day before that -- I really can't remember which day -- that the Iranians should take the opportunity that the Europeans are giving them to live up to their obligations. And we and the Europeans talk all the time about the importance of sending a strong message to the Iranians that they are being given an opportunity to demonstrate that they are prepared to live up to those obligations.
So I think the message is there, the Iranians need to get that message. And we can certainly always remind them that there are other steps that the international community has at its disposal, should they not be prepared to live up to these obligations.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How about we go over on that side, maybe the gentleman, one in from the aisle?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE), "Financial Times." Secretary, are you more -- you're seeing the EU today and tomorrow. On the Chinese arms embargo, are you more reassured than you were a few weeks ago?
The Europeans are floating this idea of technical consultations with the U.S. and Japan to make sure technologies which are sensitive are not transferred. Could that reassure you...
O'BRIEN: We've been listening to Condoleezza Rice. As I mentioned, she's at NATO headquarters in Brussels in Belgium. She's also going to be holding talks today with NATO foreign ministers.
We heard just moments ago talking about Iran. She says the next steps are in the offing if Iran doesn't start paying attention to the international community. She says those next steps are obvious. The IAEA suggesting reference to the then U.N. Security Council.
She says there's been a strong message sent by the international community. And there are other steps she's alluding to that the international community has at its disposal as it refers back to Iran.
Joining us from Paris this morning, Christian Mallard. He's a senior foreign analyst for France 3 TV.
Let's talk a little bit about the message, Christian, that we've been hearing from the secretary of state as she makes her first trip. She's had a message in addition to what we've heard this morning to the French specifically about putting aside differences. How is that particular message being received overseas?
CHRISTIAN MALLARD, SR. FOREIGN ANALYST, FRANCE 3 TV: Received positively. I know that President Chirac was very satisfied with the speech delivered yesterday at the Institute of Political Sciences in Paris by Secretary Rice. Especially on many things.
On the message associating America and Europe together and involvement about in the peace process in the Middle East concerning Israeli and Palestinian. About the notion of freedom -- I think the French president has been very sensitive to the notion of freedom developed by Secretary Rice, especially in the will of President Bush to expand democracy to all Middle East, which we totally agree with. And saying that this freedom should not be imposed from outside.
It should be -- I quote Secretary Rice -- "whole ground." We should help these people finding -- fighting for democracy, to get democracy, to reach democracy. And it's available for Iraq, for Iran, you alluded to.
It's clear the French president now is on the same wavelength as President Bush. We totally agree also on the fact that Lebanese -- I know that President Chirac has been very satisfied with this message, taking -- alluding to the Resolution 1559, asking the Syrians to withdraw from Lebanon and having Lebanon to recover its sovereignty.
Globally, let us say it seems here that the new page has been turned. These agreements should belong to the past. It's true, we might still have disagreements if, for instance, Secretary Rumsfeld today in Nice, this meeting of secretary of defense, NATO, asks France, are you ready to send troops to Iraq, are you ready to share the financial burden? It's clear that President Chirac has not changed his position on these specific points.
But at the same time, he's willing to help the training of security people, of army people in Iraq. He wants to do it outside of Iraq in Jordan, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) kingdom. Well, anyway, I think there is a will on both sides to be together, hand-in-hand, to fight the same common challenges we have to face today, rise of Muslim fundamentalism, terrorism.
You mentioned, Iran, Soledad. I think -- can I add something on Iran? I totally agree with the position of President Bush. We have to be tough. The French understand that.
But the French are probably with the American -- with the German and the English, still making business with Iran. Keep this regime which is backing terrorism alive. And I think probably we should be all united together and exert the toughest pressure on Iran, which is backing terrorism. I totally agree with the Bush administration.
O'BRIEN: So Christian, you're listing areas of common ground, and many areas of common ground. This was pitched as a fence-mending trip. Are you saying then that these fences are now mended?
MALLARD: I would say a lot of the gaps have been bridged. It's true, we had this big bone of contention on Iraq. And President Chirac or secretary -- French Secretary Barnier said yesterday it's not allegiance.
We are between allies, between friends. The French and the Americans have always been allies. And other European countries also, not only France.
We try to think about the future. We have so many things to do together. And even if we have to get through the U.N., the French president thinks that, even if the people of Iran want to choose their own liberty, to start fighting against the ayatollah, this is their right. But at the same time, I think -- I think if President Bush sees tomorrow that Iran is the not respecting the rule of the game, and say we stop the nuclear program, everybody will go to the U.N. and try to exert pressure above the Iranian regime.
O'BRIEN: Christian... MALLARD: So I think, as you said, the big problems have been repaired. It's on the right way. And I think President Bush can come with a new mood, new spirit to Brussels, in two weeks from now, and see President Chirac being more friendly to United States, more open- minded with the other European allies.
O'BRIEN: Christian Mallard joining us. He is a senior foreign analyst for France 3 TV.
Also...
MALLARD: Thanks, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Thank you, Christian.
We didn't get a chance to talk about it, but, you know, there's been lots of feedback on her look as well. Many people praising literally -- it's been a big deal. "Her custom made suits" -- this is from The Associated Press -- "including a black number with gold brocade. She favors chic Italian heels, nipped waist and understated jewelry."
One German headline said that they felt that the secretary of state was coquettish. So she's getting a lot of feedback on her performance on the style front as well.
HEMMER: Appropriate, because it's Fashion Week here in New York City, too.
O'BRIEN: I guess.
HEMMER: An update on Iraq in a moment here. Explosions and gunfire in Baghdad. There's also big news involving Iraq's election results.
Back in a moment after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired February 9, 2005 - 9:01 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Police in Spain on the hunt for terrorists again today after a car packed with explosives explodes in central Madrid.
Speculation that the U.S. might launch air strikes against Iran. This morning we'll have a look at the military realities of that.
The tiniest baby ever, born not much bigger than a cell phone. She is home and she is bigger. And her parents introduce us to her this morning.
And something that crawled out of China. A big start to the year of rooster on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, I love that videotape of those little chicks dancing around the big old rooster. They're so cute.
Good morning. Welcome back, everybody.
Other news that's making headlines this morning, a moment of opportunity in the Middle East. Israeli and Palestinian leaders said to be working today on some longstanding issues after yesterday's cease-fire agreement. Former President Jimmy Carter knows just what it takes to get results in that part of the world. We're going to talk to him about that, get his insights coming up in just a moment.
HEMMER: Also, Condoleezza Rice. Has she won over the French? The secretary of state getting some pretty good reviews after visiting Paris. We'll talk about her reception with a journalist from one of the big French television stations coming up in a moment here as we get you back over the Atlantic in a moment.
O'BRIEN: Reviews only about sort of what she said. But they've been writing about what she's wearing and her hair and her shoes. It's kind of interesting.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Wasn't she -- wasn't she fawning over the French about their help in resolving the Cold War?
O'BRIEN: And they are fawning back about her chic Italian heels, her...
CAFFERTY: No, no, no, no, no. What exactly did the French do to help resolve the Cold War?
O'BRIEN: Not a lot. Very little.
CAFFERTY: Thank you.
Moving on, President Bush says he'll cut the deficit in half in four years. Think he can do it? AM@CNN.com. We'll read some e- mails.
O'BRIEN: We'll get right to the headlines. Heidi Collins in for us this morning.
Good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, guys. And good morning to you, everybody.
"Now in the News" this morning, a CNN "Security Watch." An investigation continues this hour into a car bomb attack in Madrid, Spain. Spanish officials say at least 42 people were injured in the blast. A caller claiming to be with the Basque separatist group Eta reportedly warned a Basque newspaper a half-hour before the attack.
Stay with CNN day and night for the most reliable news about your security.
The Lent season begins today, without officials blessings, though, from the pope. For the first time in his 26-year term, Pope John Paul II is missing Ash Wednesday services at the Vatican. He is expected to stay at a Rome hospital until at least tomorrow.
The 84-year-old pontiff is recovering from complications brought on by the flu. He also suffers from Parkinson's Disease.
The new Medicare drug plan is carrying a large price tag, and there's now word the cost is bigger than expected. The White House estimates the plan will cost $720 billion during its first 10 years. That figure blamed in part on soaring costs of prescription drugs. The new drug plan is set to take effect next year.
And happy new year to you. Thousands of people in China and throughout the world celebrating the year of the rooster, lighting incense as a form of prayers for a good year. And what celebration would be complete without this? The special dance.
A whole group of little chickens dancing around the big rooster celebrating the lunar new year. They're saying good-bye to the year of the monkey.
O'BRIEN: They are so cute.
HEMMER: Yes, they are.
COLLINS: Where's the monkey? I don't see a monkey though.
O'BRIEN: No monkey. He's gone, and that year. They've moved on to the rooster.
COLLINS: They're very well choreographed.
O'BRIEN: They are very -- they're pretty darn good for like -- looks like 5-year-olds.
COLLINS: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Heidi.
HEMMER: There's a new warning for Iran this morning. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice saying that Tehran may face U.N. sanctions if it does not pull back its efforts to build nuclear weapons.
Rice is in Brussels at this hour meeting with the NATO secretary- general. She's about to speak at a joint press conference. We're monitoring that for you. In about an hour she's also scheduled to meet European commission officials as her tour overseas continues.
O'BRIEN: Secretary Rice has said a U.S. attack on Iran is "not on the agenda." But what if diplomacy fails? What options are left? Barbara Starr is at the Pentagon for us this morning.
Barbara, good morning.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you again, Soledad.
Well, that is one of the questions. With all of the tough talk from Washington, all the way to Tehran, if it ever came to it, is there such a thing as a limited strike against Iran? And what would it look like?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
STARR (voice-over): One-hundred and fifty miles southwest of Tehran, the Iraq heavy water plant, a facility international inspectors believe is critical to Iran's nuclear weapons program, one of many suspected nuclear sites the U.S. says are well hidden around the country.
Finding all of the sites would be just one problem in launching any so-called limited strike to take them out. To avoid Iranian military on the ground, the U.S. would likely fire from long distance, using Tomahawk cruise muscles from ships in the Persian Gulf and precision bombs from the long range B-2 stealth bomber.
But military and security experts agree Iran's religious leaders would strike back hard.
KEN POLLACK, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: There's no reason to believe that the Iranians would see them limited. In fact, Iranians might choose to retaliate in a far less limited fashion, in particular, they're likely to try to employ terrorist attacks.
STARR: Iran's longstanding support for Hezbollah and its ability to marshal terrorist attacks in retaliation is a major concern. But there is more. Experts say Iran could retaliate with a missile strike. With a range of 1,500 kilometers, its Shahab 3 (ph) and other missiles could hit U.S. troops in Iraq and Kuwait, strike Israel, and even reach Turkey. Iran's mobile launchers would be difficult to preemptively destroy.
Former Defense Secretary William Cohen is an ardent supporter of diplomacy with Iran, and he knows the limits of the limited-strike option.
In 1998, the U.S. conducted air strikes against Saddam Hussein's missile facilities, hoping to halt his missile production for two years.
RICHARD COHEN, FMR. SECY. OF DEFENSE: You can reconstitute facilities that are destroyed, and so unless you're talking about all- out devastation and an occupation of a country with widespread destruction, limited attacks are good on a temporary basis. But again, the downside is you may end up causing a national -- a rise in nationalism and a revolution of a different support against the United States.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: So, could the U.S. military launch a limited strike against Iran? The answer, of course, is yes. But administration officials continue to say that they are pursuing an aggressive policy of diplomacy. And no military action is expected -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: And they've been emphasizing the diplomacy part of that. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us this morning. Barbara, thank you.
Tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING, we'll take a look at a worst-case scenario, all-out war with Iran. That's on Thursday morning, 7:00 a.m. Eastern, right here on CNN -- Bill.
HEMMER: About nine minutes now past the hour, Soledad.
Palestinian and Israeli officials this morning announcing that major checkpoints will be removed as Israel gets ready to pull out of five West Bank towns. The first steps toward this latest peace effort began with last month's elections for the Palestinians.
Former President Jimmy Carter was there for those elections. And the former president currently trying to bring aid to Guyana in South America. Heavy rain since Christmas has caused severe flooding and now water-borne disease. Former President Jimmy Carter is at his home in Plains, Georgia.
Welcome back here, Mr. President. Good morning to you.
JAMES CARTER, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Thank you. It's good to be with you and the CNN folks.
HEMMER: Let's talk about the Middle East and Iraq in a moment here. First, what is happening in Guyana that is drawing so much attention there now?
CARTER: Well, Guyana is a small, relatively unknown country in Latin America. As you know, English-speaking, they have about 700,000 people. And the remarkable thing about this little country is that about half the total population, in fact 90 percent of the total population, lives in an area right on the sea coast that is six feet below sea level.
And in January, late in January, they got enormous rains, unprecedented rains. Over half the number of people in the whole country are under water. And now they have 50 irrigation pumps running.
In the meantime, they've pumped the border down about -- oh, once inch a day it goes down. But the problem is that dengue fever and a disease called leptospirosis and malaria are becoming more and more prevalent in Guyana.
The unfortunate timing of this catastrophe for the little country was that it came at the same time as the tsunami relief. And everybody's concentrating on the tsunami problem and ignoring Guyana.
So I would just like to urge everyone to be generous in contributing to the International Red Cross. That's www.ifrc.com. And help the people Guyana.
This is very important to those people. And they're doing the best they can on their own.
HEMMER: In addition to the Red Cross, Mr. President, the U.N. is asking for an appeal for $3 million immediately. Where would that money go? And how can they use that today?
CARTER: It's primarily for cleanup. As I say, just some, you know, regular irrigation pumps running. They're pumping water back into the sea. This comes down from enormous rivers as they got 30 inches of rain in just a few days.
This is about four times as much rain as they ordinarily get during this time. It's the worst flood in 100 years.
Then the relief funds would go for humanitarian aid, to rebuild the houses, but primarily for cleanup. Same basic problem that we've heard so much about in the tsunami area.
HEMMER: And your point is very well taken about the other story getting so much attention, from southeast Asia. IFRC.com is the Web site there.
Let's talk about the Middle East, with Condoleezza Rice recently there this past week. Is there any reason for you to be more optimistic now about a peace deal holding than in the past, or is this more of the same?
CARTER: Well, I was in the Palestine area in January when they had the election and chose Abu Mazen to be their president. I think he's shown, as he promised me he would, and others, that he's been very courageous and very effective so far, at least, in holding down the constant skirmishes around Gaza, which is a completely enclosed city, formerly controlled and still controlled by the Israelis. As they move out it will a good test on his leadership.
I have complete confidence in him. Although he tried to be prime minister, as you know, last year for a while, he was still working under the domination of Yasser Arafat. And he was kind of -- had his legs cut off by both Israel and the United States and couldn't be effective.
Now, though, he's been elected on his own. And I think so far, since he was elected, he has shown remarkable courage and also remarkable and surprising effectiveness.
So it's a good hope for the future. The tough negotiations and the tough decisions by Israel and the Palestinians are still to come. We'll be watching closely.
The next time I'll be over there, by the way, will be in July, when the Palestinians will choose their parliamentary members. And the hope is -- and I expect -- that Hamas, one of the key -- I guess opposition group, to put it mildly, intend to put candidates in the election. So this might moderate their position and reduce the violence that they have in the past initiated.
HEMMER: I want to talk about Iraq now and the post-election phase at this point. Still waiting results, official results. Maybe we'll get them tomorrow, on Thursday, perhaps in the days after that.
I haven't heard you speak just yet in the aftermath of the elections. Many say this is history and this is progress for the Iraqi people and perhaps for the entire Middle East. Do you see it the same way?
CARTER: Yes, I think it was a very successful effort. And although the -- as you know, the Sunnis almost refused to participate and played a very small role in the most troubled and I'll say violent areas of Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds turned out in surprising numbers. Now the question is, will this be a Shiite-dominated religious organization formed as the next government, or will it be a democratic secular one? And will there be some way to encourage the Sunnis to come back in and participate?
I hope that we'll have every success in Iraq. And that election, I think, was a surprisingly good step forward.
HEMMER: Thank you, Mr. President. Jimmy Carter down in Plains, Georgia.
Also, on the topic of Guyana, I misspoke for a moment here. IFRC.org, as opposed to dot-com. Thanks. And we'll speak again. Nice to see you.
CARTER: Thanks a lot.
HEMMER: Here's Soledad
O'BRIEN: Let's take a look at the weather now. Chad Myers is at the CNN Center for us with the very latest forecast.
Hello again, Chad.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
O'BRIEN: All right, Chad. Thanks.
You know what? I bet the folks on the West Coast are like, it's fine to not talk about us today. Because sometimes when the weather guy talks about you, it's not all good news.
MYERS: Exactly.
O'BRIEN: Thanks, Chad.
MYERS: All right.
O'BRIEN: Well, it was easily the most touching commercial of the Super Bowl, Anheuser-Busch's tribute to America's military. One of the 12 real-life soldiers in that ad tells us what it's like to now be a celebrity.
HEMMER: Also in a moment, what's more important for a secretary of state, is it diplomacy or is it fashion sense in France? We'll have a look at that today.
O'BRIEN: And a huge day for the world's littlest baby. Wait until you see what she looks like now. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. You're looking at Condoleezza Rice in NATO headquarters in Brussels in Belgium. She's talking about Iran. Let's listen in to what the secretary of state has to say.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: ... is telling the Iranians that they're going to have to live up to their international obligations or next steps are in the offing. And I think everybody understands what "next steps" means.
We've had these discussions in the IAEA board of governors. It is obvious that if Iran cannot be brought to live up to its international obligations, that, in fact, the IAEA statutes would suggest that Iran has to be referred to the U.N. Security Council.
I said yesterday, the day before or the day before that -- I really can't remember which day -- that the Iranians should take the opportunity that the Europeans are giving them to live up to their obligations. And we and the Europeans talk all the time about the importance of sending a strong message to the Iranians that they are being given an opportunity to demonstrate that they are prepared to live up to those obligations.
So I think the message is there, the Iranians need to get that message. And we can certainly always remind them that there are other steps that the international community has at its disposal, should they not be prepared to live up to these obligations.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How about we go over on that side, maybe the gentleman, one in from the aisle?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE), "Financial Times." Secretary, are you more -- you're seeing the EU today and tomorrow. On the Chinese arms embargo, are you more reassured than you were a few weeks ago?
The Europeans are floating this idea of technical consultations with the U.S. and Japan to make sure technologies which are sensitive are not transferred. Could that reassure you...
O'BRIEN: We've been listening to Condoleezza Rice. As I mentioned, she's at NATO headquarters in Brussels in Belgium. She's also going to be holding talks today with NATO foreign ministers.
We heard just moments ago talking about Iran. She says the next steps are in the offing if Iran doesn't start paying attention to the international community. She says those next steps are obvious. The IAEA suggesting reference to the then U.N. Security Council.
She says there's been a strong message sent by the international community. And there are other steps she's alluding to that the international community has at its disposal as it refers back to Iran.
Joining us from Paris this morning, Christian Mallard. He's a senior foreign analyst for France 3 TV.
Let's talk a little bit about the message, Christian, that we've been hearing from the secretary of state as she makes her first trip. She's had a message in addition to what we've heard this morning to the French specifically about putting aside differences. How is that particular message being received overseas?
CHRISTIAN MALLARD, SR. FOREIGN ANALYST, FRANCE 3 TV: Received positively. I know that President Chirac was very satisfied with the speech delivered yesterday at the Institute of Political Sciences in Paris by Secretary Rice. Especially on many things.
On the message associating America and Europe together and involvement about in the peace process in the Middle East concerning Israeli and Palestinian. About the notion of freedom -- I think the French president has been very sensitive to the notion of freedom developed by Secretary Rice, especially in the will of President Bush to expand democracy to all Middle East, which we totally agree with. And saying that this freedom should not be imposed from outside.
It should be -- I quote Secretary Rice -- "whole ground." We should help these people finding -- fighting for democracy, to get democracy, to reach democracy. And it's available for Iraq, for Iran, you alluded to.
It's clear the French president now is on the same wavelength as President Bush. We totally agree also on the fact that Lebanese -- I know that President Chirac has been very satisfied with this message, taking -- alluding to the Resolution 1559, asking the Syrians to withdraw from Lebanon and having Lebanon to recover its sovereignty.
Globally, let us say it seems here that the new page has been turned. These agreements should belong to the past. It's true, we might still have disagreements if, for instance, Secretary Rumsfeld today in Nice, this meeting of secretary of defense, NATO, asks France, are you ready to send troops to Iraq, are you ready to share the financial burden? It's clear that President Chirac has not changed his position on these specific points.
But at the same time, he's willing to help the training of security people, of army people in Iraq. He wants to do it outside of Iraq in Jordan, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) kingdom. Well, anyway, I think there is a will on both sides to be together, hand-in-hand, to fight the same common challenges we have to face today, rise of Muslim fundamentalism, terrorism.
You mentioned, Iran, Soledad. I think -- can I add something on Iran? I totally agree with the position of President Bush. We have to be tough. The French understand that.
But the French are probably with the American -- with the German and the English, still making business with Iran. Keep this regime which is backing terrorism alive. And I think probably we should be all united together and exert the toughest pressure on Iran, which is backing terrorism. I totally agree with the Bush administration.
O'BRIEN: So Christian, you're listing areas of common ground, and many areas of common ground. This was pitched as a fence-mending trip. Are you saying then that these fences are now mended?
MALLARD: I would say a lot of the gaps have been bridged. It's true, we had this big bone of contention on Iraq. And President Chirac or secretary -- French Secretary Barnier said yesterday it's not allegiance.
We are between allies, between friends. The French and the Americans have always been allies. And other European countries also, not only France.
We try to think about the future. We have so many things to do together. And even if we have to get through the U.N., the French president thinks that, even if the people of Iran want to choose their own liberty, to start fighting against the ayatollah, this is their right. But at the same time, I think -- I think if President Bush sees tomorrow that Iran is the not respecting the rule of the game, and say we stop the nuclear program, everybody will go to the U.N. and try to exert pressure above the Iranian regime.
O'BRIEN: Christian... MALLARD: So I think, as you said, the big problems have been repaired. It's on the right way. And I think President Bush can come with a new mood, new spirit to Brussels, in two weeks from now, and see President Chirac being more friendly to United States, more open- minded with the other European allies.
O'BRIEN: Christian Mallard joining us. He is a senior foreign analyst for France 3 TV.
Also...
MALLARD: Thanks, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Thank you, Christian.
We didn't get a chance to talk about it, but, you know, there's been lots of feedback on her look as well. Many people praising literally -- it's been a big deal. "Her custom made suits" -- this is from The Associated Press -- "including a black number with gold brocade. She favors chic Italian heels, nipped waist and understated jewelry."
One German headline said that they felt that the secretary of state was coquettish. So she's getting a lot of feedback on her performance on the style front as well.
HEMMER: Appropriate, because it's Fashion Week here in New York City, too.
O'BRIEN: I guess.
HEMMER: An update on Iraq in a moment here. Explosions and gunfire in Baghdad. There's also big news involving Iraq's election results.
Back in a moment after this.
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